#442: March Madness Marathon

(upbeat music) Hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen to the three men we've College Basketball podcast and it is the March madness marathon. We could not be more excited right now. I thought about humming the CBS College Basketball theme song, but yeah, exactly there you go, Kai. Nobody does it quite like, the IONCBB with the actual song opening up their pod. I respect their intro over ours, Kai at this point. But we're excited to dig into the weeds of every single game, all 32 of the first round. We'll give some thoughts on the first four as well because we are recording live on Monday night, 7.30 PM Central. We've got some viewers on YouTube excited about that. It seems to be more convenient for folks than 7 a.m. on Friday. - A little bit. - Adds up. It does make sense for me why people might be tuned in. Also, we'll have quite a bit of shelf life here for folks to listen to hopefully the fourth Thursday morning. By the way, I'm Jim Root on the host. I'm joined by Kai McEwen and Matthew Cox. We're wearing our Spinneyhats Kai, how pumped are you for the NCAA tournament? - Jim, I'm very excited. Two things make me Randy, my wife and the theme song to College Basketball. - In one order. - Okay. - In one, I'll never tell you that. - Yeah. - That's private. That's private. I'm not an open book Matthew. - Yeah. - Yeah, we're very close-fested. Husbands. Jim, on a scale of one to 11, 11 would be my little excitement for this tournament. A lot of fun mid majors that maybe not the same giant killing potential as some others, but a lot of coaches I root for, coaches I had Toledo won. I think it would have been a close to perfect sweep of coaches teams that I felt that feel vindicated in making it. So we were close to that mark, but still a lot of fun teams. I'm excited to talk to it. I think Mike all get mocked, but that's okay. It's a glad they're there. - Toledo and Matt, I really wanted to Navy. - And Navy. - Yeah, I get it. - Financial purposes and just, they were the clear best team all season long. And I saw, you know, there's some lamenting about number one seeds losing in the conference tournaments, but a lot of the teams that weren't one seeds were arguably the better team all season long. You're Hofstra's, you're Northern Iowa's. So, actually in our being a fairly, yeah, fairly strong field. It's just the top of the field is crazy. I believe Stucky tweeted a stat that this is the first year that all of the 413 matchups are 10 or higher, and it's 13 and a half or higher. We're just not even close, Kai. - And all of the 15 seeds are 20 and higher. It's the, yes, very weird. - The spreads that is. - Weighted average seed, weighted average seed, 14 or higher, highest ever, second highest was last year. Before that, it was like a 12 year gap. So like it's just, we're in a totally different, last two seasons. It's just a totally different environment. So. - Ball game, which may or may not as Matt said, may or may not mean chalk early. It certainly indicates that based on the probability of spreads, but we're gonna at least talk about if there's some upsets we think could happen. We're gonna bring up the lines. It's not quite a best bet show, but we do wanna give some people the insight to that because we're not going to be doing best bet shows Thursday, Friday, and on the weekend. - Yes, sorry, it's all the people that like, sunglasses, Kai, sitting on the floor of a hotel in Las Vegas, we're not gonna have that this year. - The best of us. - Oh, but yes. And as mentioned, this is the three men we've college basketball pod. Follow us on Twitter at 3MW_CBB, we're the same on Instagram. I'm guessing we've got some new listeners here. So it is usually this chaotic to start the show. But we are skipping routes round up, the news section. We are skipping. We saw that. We're not even gonna look back at conference tournaments. We just wanna talk ball games and there are 32 of them, which means we're probably gonna be chatting it up for somewhere around two hours. That is the case. That is why it's called the March Madness marathon. We're skipping reviews at the end too. We'll catch up with all that stuff next week when there's only 16 teams left. But right now, it is about the field of 68 trademark, sorry Rob Jeff, we were allowed to say it. You don't know the term. Shout out to Jay Pity, a cage will pass call for our tunes. I hung out within this weekend. Great time, good fella. Subscribe to the YouTube channel where we are currently live, live, live broadcasting with our spiny hats. If you wanna tune in, that is always welcome. We must give a shout out to Basket under review. The college basketball website/discord that we work for run by Trillie Donovan, the anonymous mysterious Trillie Donovan. The discord's the best. You get to talk with us with fans of every single team. There's constantly flowing chatter in the transfer portal thread in the coaching carousel thread. You can AMA with anybody that's writing articles on the website at Baskin Review. Your will warrants, your Jordan Majesky's. His injury news is in there. Always great to get that insight. Well Brian Rauf is up there. We've got the multiple basketball under, or the Baskin Review Pods. I host Stats with Will Warren. Got even Brendan and Tate Fraser on the burp. The Baskin Review POD. Got Scout team with Kevin Sweeney and Eric Fawcett. And of course, weekend under review with Matthew Winnick and Brian Rauf, just a plethora, a cornucopia of college oops content. Ooh, getting emotional thinking about the fiancee tournament here. It's early Jim. It's right. I got a little one. Safe strength. Okay, we're back. We're so back. Yes, all right. Let's get into it, Fawcett. We've got the POD. Baskin Review 10 dollars a month. If you've done it, please, please get into it. And then Matt, real quick, and we will be citing probably quite a bit from our friends at CBB Analytics throughout this show. So we might as well give them a tip of the cap here as we get into the matchups. That's right, Jim. CBBanalytics.com. For those of you who don't know, you should know. Get to know it. We've been long time subscribers. Use our promo code weave, W-E-A-V-E. Get you four dollars off your subscription. A couple of examples of things we'll be bringing up tonight. He has all of the simulation percentage odds up live on his sites. If you're doing a bracket, at least use that as a reference point. Barry handy, I need to kind of go through and look through the different paths of certain teams. We love looking at the visualization of the shot diets, the shot charts offensive and defensive. You can break those down by home road. Quad-1 versus Quad-2 versus Quad-3 versus Quad-4. The last 10 games, last five games, who's hot? Who has become a different team? You can break down some individual player on off stuff, as well. A couple of unique situations where you had teams playing categorically better or worse, with or without a key guy, it's all available, Jim. In a very visually appealing fashion, I already have three tabs on my third monitor. What's up, three monitors. I don't know what you guys, what you guys, three, two. - Wow, holy crap. - Only two Matthew, I am being shamed right now. - So yeah, I will be siding, spouting off CBLX stats all night tonight. So sound today. That's again, promo code weave, W-E-A-V-E. Four yards off, thank you to Nick and team, CBLX.com. - The three monitor weave, Maddie, the three MW over there. All right, fellas, let's get right into it. In the East region, we're gonna go basically in the order of the NCAA selection show. So clockwise, as it were, starting up top and the top left, we'll go down that region, game by game, then head across over to the west, down to the Midwest, and then finish with the south and the bottom left corner of your brackets, which means we get to start with Matthews, Duke Blue Devils, the number one overall seed, taking on Sienna in the first round. I don't think any of us are at all concerned about Duke going down in this game there. 28 and a half point favorites, total of 136. Matt, what jumps out to you about your Blue Devils? I guess really the big story is how healthier they're gonna be. Matt, that's how you do it. - That's how you do it. Good start. - This is a classic, classic, Matt. How many monitors you got? How many microphones you got, kid, come on. - That's tough. Yeah, the injury thing is the question mark for Duke, and it's more of a long term. I don't think it's gonna have any, like is there any chance this game's like a five point game in half, like if this pace kind of slows up? I don't think Sienna just has the offensive juice to score with Duke. To score against Duke's defense, which is even without Patrick, big pad as we call him, even without him. Still, I think Duke will suffocate them. I think Duke will give a ton of transition, turn you over into easy, pick six touchdowns, Kai. The spread's 30 for a reason. I mean, Shao said Jerry McNamara, maybe he drums up some old ACC rivalry demons here and inspires the men, but I just don't think this, anyway, this game's competitive. I think Duke's more of a longer next round, multi-round conversation than like this first round matchup. - I do like looking back and seeing who these low, low, low teams have played, like power wise during the season. Sienna's played one power team this year. It was Indiana. The Hoosiers won by 21 points. It was never close. Sienna never led. Duke's a little better than Indiana. I don't want to make apples to apples comparisons there, but it helps in a context of how teams step up. For the record, I thought Sienna should have gotten 15 seed. That's not exactly relevant to this game, because Duke, I think, is going to absolutely wipe the floor with them, Jim. The athleticism difference is stark, as much as I like Gavin Doty, and I do. I do not think Sienna will hang around Duke. - Nope, I don't either. - Losing Antonio Chandler to eligibility stuff late in the year, like their best-wing athlete, big time two-way rebounder. They were basically a five-man team in the conference title game against Marimack. Their bench played six total minutes in that game, and that's going to be the version you're getting of Sienna. They've got some size, Mulvey, the former Iowa transfer is big in the paint, but Full of FAC is a beast, like just a round mound of bruising. That's it. I'm not worried about them against Sienna. And then Kai, for every one 16 game, I am talking a first to 15 factor. And it's bad here. I would not take Sienna first to 15. They cannot shoot. They don't want to shoot. You need a team with some variance early in the game. It's going to bomb up some trees, especially from the front court. That's not going to happen with Sienna. I think Duke rolls them right from the beginning, even if it is potentially a slow pace. All right, let's keep up. We're freaking down. Oh, Matt. Oh, it's too much freaking down. Oh, Matt, sorry. One more nugget. Yeah, Sienna. One of per CBB analytics. I got one of eight teams to only play one quad one slash quad two game all year. So kind of tough. Wow. Yeah. Hey, that's one more than Miami, Ohio. I will say four of those nine were Mac schools. So yeah, no, I mean, just kind of your point. We haven't seen them play against good teams. And when we did, it wasn't really competitive. Your users, who, who, who users, kind of by game merchants as we, as we saw all your good, not raising class. We're one game in and Matthias has discussed both teams that are on penance behind his head in his whole office there. Wow. How about that? Good plug for me in my set of behind. Yeah. All right. Let's go to the eight nine matchup here. And I'm intrigued by it. Ohio State TCU. Honestly, Matthew, I think it's a tough eight nine draw for your dookies. We can get into that in a little bit. So it's starting just two teams that are playing really well lately, trending up Ohio State, especially their number 12 in the country. In the last, since February 18th, so like really, really good. Kai, slight favorite Ohio State here around two and a half. This is, I have not bet a single game yet. I'm just kind of letting letting the letting the ball come to me. I'm not forcing it. But there was a three and a half out on this game at one point. I wish I would have gotten it on the horned frogs. What, what do you think of these two trending up teams in the eight nine game? Yeah, I don't love the spread, but I think Ohio State wins this game, guys. And I feel like I'm, I'm bucking the weave here. I just can't stop. I don't know full Benedict, the full 180 on Ohio State. I was content by the way, too. I know big time. I think Bruce Thornton is going to kill TCU. I think he's going to get in the lane any time he wants. Ohio State leads the country and field go percentage in the paint. And that is because of Thornton doing whatever he wants with his strength is size. TCU is very small guards. Do nothing they can guard him. They're not a great ball screen defense. They're not great one on one defending huge guards. I really think they have an advantage there. It's going to a little bit of strength on strength Ohio State offense. TCU, Tn. H.S. defense. Both teams you mentioned hot, hot, hot. But that for some reason, I'm leaning towards the buck guys. If you get to two, I probably wet my beak a little bit on Ohio State. You moved it again, Matthew. This guy is proud of himself. Just trying to be respectful of the background. A lot of background noise here going on at 745 at my house. But again, Ohio State was content. Two teams that have sort of been like selling, selling, bimoning all year. And I've just like, you have an awesome lead guard that can do what Bruce Thornton does and how well he's been playing. I think even the supporting cast has been really good lately. And I've been critical of Deblur, but there's been some notable adjustments. Our guys in basketball under review and the discord have kind of talked about that. And I'm a Jeskey brought up a really good point. Jordan Majeskey, awesome writer for the Burr who did the breakdown of this region. Check it out for those who are not subscribed. How TCU will blitz ball screens. Like they're going to bring a lot of pressure at him. So Thornton's going to have to get the ball early. And so he will make the others beat them. But Ohio State's others are good. And it's not like as overwhelmingly dominant in a high usage role. That's because Thornton's been so good. So I think in this matchup, it's going to be, can the others produce? I'd be looking at props, maybe over assist Kai for Thornton under points and maybe over his teammates type of production. I think that's going to have to be a committee effort for Ohio State to win here. But I do think they want to win with you. I think they're better than TCU. I do. All right. I'll be the TCU boy on the pod here then. I think, as Matt mentioned, the blitzing on pot are on ball screens. I also think they can switch a decent amount. Their front court's really versatile mobile David Punch, like a Robinson, Edmunds. Those guys can move and that gives them a chance to do that. They force a ton of isolation because of that because it can switch a little bit. Now the scary part is Kai, would you like to guess what percentile Ohio State is an efficiency in isolation? It's high. No, what percentile percentile? I, hi. That's not going to be ninth. I was right. I thought you said it's a tie. No, it's high. Yes, it is high. Extremely high. So that does worry me. Thornton's fantastic and the smaller guards. I mean, like Brock Harding played against him in the Big Ten. I don't think he can hold up here. Pierre also smaller. But I do think TCU can eat on the glass inside. They're so active. They're so active. I don't know if they can eat on the glass. You can panel that. I agree. Dude, just a better version. Yeah, you got to be able to make three's against Duke. Shoot over the top. Next up, St. John's version Northern Iowa. A low total game here. 131.5. Northern Iowa can try to drag this down into the mud. Matt, going to go to you first tier. St. John's length. Ten and a half. You and I. 363rd in pace. I'm just worried about them on the glass against the onslaught of Hopkins, Edger for and Mitchell. What do you think can St. John's pull away from a team that is really well coached and is going to probably drag this down into the muck? Yeah, I think the pace is going to be key here because if you can keep this game close and sort of, you know, suck the air out of the game with like a low possession game, you can maybe deflate the pressure that St. John's can bring into this. Right. I think it's going to be. Tray Campbell, awesome guard. Great story. By the way, local Cedar Falls kid. Been like a five year guy. Northern Iowa, just one of the easy teams to roof for. Coach, he's been there for 20 years. Core of the roster has been there for like three, four years. Truly a unicorn mid major in this climate. Can they handle the pressure and can they handle the glass? The glass show, I'm not worried about the pressure I am as good as Campbell is. I only have some kind of bigger, longer guards. Kai, but again, have they played something like St. John's? No, you and I think they're going to have to. They're going to have to prove that now they've played some good teams. But I think St. John's like at their A plus pressure with what they bring in waves. I mean, they like they they bothered like Connecticut. They can really kind of ramp it up quickly. And that's my concern. The Valley just doesn't have a lot of those type of teams. They just don't. Yeah, I'm more worried about ball handling than I am the glass. They played St. Mary's at St. Mary's. They kept it very close and and however, St. Mary said beat them on the glass. Pretty good. And if St. Mary's can do it, who is a very good offensive rebounding team? I do worry about St. John's, but top 25 defense for rebounding team in the country. They're not playing slouches in the Missouri Valley. Obviously a very, very good league. Jim's right with Tristan Smith. They're a different team. I think it's going to be a very annoying game for St. John's gym. I think Northern Iowa is a perfect big dog like six in your crawl the whole time. Just annoying thorn on your side. The thorn and the lion's paw the St. John's red storm of the lions in this case. I think scoring is going to be a challenge for St. John's. They're going to muck it up. I clearly lean the under in this game. I also picked off 12 and a half for Northern Iowa earlier. It was a very opening line. I know it's come down a little bit. Kenpon only has it nine. For how much Northern Iowa can pull, excuse me, you made a face to me through me off. Oh, no, I'm, I'm like surprised that it's nine in Kenpon. That was not at you. It's just because Northern Iowa is even better than Kenpon because Smith was hard for a while. That's what I thought as well. It kind of weird to open up a lot higher. But I did because they can't take the air of the ball so well. Northern Iowa is a good dog in this fight. Yeah. I lean that way too. I think I like the more first half because I think the pressure of St. John's and the patino adjustments can kind of get the teams. They've been playing bad to mediocre big East teams all year. They had some first half deficits. I remember the one seat in the hall game they struggled and then torch them in the second half. I could see them hanging around and then just sort of extending a little bit with the physicality and the athleticism and a little bit more size in the paint. Egefor against Mr. Hornseth. I think could end up being an issue. I like that. They're a great defensive rebounding team. But as you mentioned, St. Mary's was able to get them on the glass. It's just kind of a different breed than you find in the Missouri Valley. All right, let's go to Kansas and Cal Baptist. Another one I'm sort of intrigued by the underdog here. And that is for shot volume reasons, Kai. Kansas has struggled in shot volume all year. Like it they're not a great rebound margin or turnover margin team, especially for being a top big 12 squad. Cal Baptist is an awesome rebounding team. They're huge. They got three six 10 to seven footers. I know their average height is not very big, but that's because their guards are small. Their front court can compete with the size of front. And they've got Dom Daniels, the potential like superstar and March. Kansas has a lot of perimeter size to swallow him up. That does frighten me a little bit. But I sort of think the Lancers hang around Mr. McEwan. Yeah, that's the German three versus mere. American three tell Jim and Gorias bastards. If you say Cal Baptist is small, you don't really know ball. You don't know ball. Yeah. That's right. No, you don't know ball. This is a second straight game where the dog can really pull the other team to the mud. That's what Cal Baptist does. The Utah Valley game was the definition of pulling a team into the mud. The hammer, the glass, downing Daniels is a fantastic, electrically guard, very fun player in March. Kansas doesn't force turnovers met. That's very good news for Cal Baptist who just had does have issues with turning the ball over. I think Cal Baptist's toughness can stay within this number. Obviously, Darren Peterson is a game breaker and can do it every once in any court. I'm curious if his little playing time, Sware falls in this game. Yeah. We'll see. I think it's more of a question on the round of 32 with the quick turn. I think also worth noting that this game being on Friday is kind of huge for Kansas. He had one day off extra for Melon Council who's been like a bell cow of usage and workload because Peterson has been kind of minutes up and down. Just frankly, because council has been so good and so important to that team. I do think this game will play slower, possession wise, because Kansas is like perimeter depth is, well, I think it's actually okay. Selt doesn't always trust it. We'll see if they get one of those random good games from El Marco Jackson or Jamari McDowell, who I think are kind of the skeleton keys to Kansas unlocking a different gear. But to the Cal Baptist's size point, they're guards are small. Their bigs are huge. So on the perimeter, KU is much bigger. And Kansas frontline is as big and as good as anyone in the country. So I just don't think Cal Baptist is going to have like any chance they have a shot volume edge in this game. So they're going to have to make shots. Daniel's going to have to be awesome. I mean, a question who's like the KU stopper to lock him up? I think if KU just takes off, takes away Daniel's they cruise in this game, frankly. Well, see, I don't, I don't, I think they've got a shot volume edge because Kansas is not a good rebounding team like two way. They're not like, they haven't been all year. 11th in the big 12th on both ends of the floor outside the top one 50 in both ends of the floor nationally. I think Cal Baptist can kind of eat them up a little bit there. But I am worried about Pearson or if probably council or Marco Jackson swallowing up little Daniels, like that's a lot of length. And they can switch, like you could try to target getting a mismatch like Badonga or Tre White can move their feet with Daniels and Daniels runs a ton of ball screens. I put this in the basket under review ticket punch chart at call 383 ball screen positions this year for Daniels. That is number one in division one by 70. Only one other guy is even above 300. Like that is their offense. It is Dom dribble around try to find something. It's a little like Michigan state where like all they do is just fears dribble try to help somebody find somebody or get a little floater. And I just think he's going to struggle to finish against the size on the perimeter and the size inside. So lean under definitely like that. But I also think the rebounding edge gives Cal Baptist enough juice to hang around in that one. Can't seem to play that to line up here. That's just to your point. It's a big get a can just goes 401 in. I agree. But they should just play Badonga and Tiller like a lot together. I just think you just eradicate that edge and just be the best version of yourself. That's what you should do if you're K. Yeah. Yeah. Fair. All right. Let's go to Michigan state North Dakota state. Oh my god. I skipped Louisville South Florida. How dare I sorry, Louisville. A lower spread here with a six first 11 only five and a half right now. Total 165 and a half. Very telling that this game is going to be up and down. Matt I've gotten like every Louisville total wrong this year every time I bet the over they miss every three and it's dead on arrival. There's like 20 points in the first 10 minutes. So I'm going to stay away from that. These are two very good shot volume teams Louisville 26 nationally per CDB analytics South Florida 16th. That's in like rebound plus turnover margin. That's what I'm measuring it as. What do you think here? Obviously the Mike Hell Brown junior status is massive for this game. Massive pack healthy with a very, very detailed not answer today in his status progressing very well looked great in practice yesterday. We will see paraphrasing of course, but I do I kind of dismissed his I'm obviously he's a phenomenal player. But Louisville's got a ton of good. Primordudes, but you kind of look at what they've been recently and talk about in the discord like Adrian Woolies not been nearly as dynamic or as confidence I thought he'd be it just become a lot of Ryan Conwell who was awesome. But without Brown it's just the it falls way too much on Conwell. I think Nealey's been way too one dimensional in him and just being a shooter. So yeah, I think really I don't need to like over harp on one injury. But obviously I've kind of come to the place of like if Brown plays is really good. I think they actually win this game by 7-8. But without him. I'm going to probably pick South Florida. Just South Florida's physicality is impressive. They have like this, you know, versatile interchangeable lineup and they're they're starting five is a perfect kind of crypts night. I think to Louisville, Isaiah Nelson swept the player of the year, defensive player of the year and newcomer of the year. He's like a freak of Zoy athlete, action figure. Does it all don't have everything in. He will be a highlight reel. And in West Venice, the lefty former D2 All-American stays as high as he was in the 8th in the AAC tournaments. I think the bulls advance here, Kai. If Brown plays different story, but if Brown's dicey or out, I like the bulls. I like them to the legit. If Brown's out, I am a heavy lean towards South Florida. The possession count worries me playing a very, very high tempo game. And we've seen them do that this year. They played Alabama 80 possessions. They hung around losing by 11 at Alabama's. No, it's nothing to sneeze at. They hung with Oklahoma State, but still lost that game by almost doubles. VCU. That game was like 72 possessions lost by doubles. I worry about them and attract me a little bit with a more talented team. Jim, the K-Shine prior Ryan Conwell revenge games, though, the angles. I guess that's bad for South Florida. I'm not worried about prior. I'm not sure he sees the four. Not much in this one. If Michael Brown Jr. doesn't play, I don't think the talent gaps that wide. I agree. I don't know. Maybe they were. Yeah. They recruited really well. They've got some power conference guys like Damien Collins is a three year SEC player and he's a back and tucky. Right. Yep. Yeah. LSU for a year as well. They didn't figure it out for a while South Florida. As Kai mentioned, the non-con results playing all those track meets with the good teams weren't awesome. But they used seven different starting lineups for four new years. And then they've used the same starting lineup in every single game of the American and they've dominated. They had a couple close losses early, but they haven't lost the games since January 31st. Both their losses and league play losses in overtime and another one by one. This team's been really, really good for a while. It's why they've now cracked the Kenpon to top 50. So I'm definitely picking them if Brown Jr. is out. And I think they hang around even if he plays. I just think there's a lot of talents on this team. All right. Now I can talk Michigan State, North Dakota State, Spartans, a heavy favorite here. No surprise. This is one where the matchup worries me for the dog Matthew, North Dakota State owned the glass in the summit. They were one of the biggest teams. Good to a rebounding team. You ain't doing that against Michigan State. They're going to run and do some big boys in the paint here. Maybe they can keep it close because it's not going to be up tempo. Both teams are really good at transition defense. Like you're not getting layups against either team. I don't know Matt. Do you see a path for North Dakota State or is this party just rolls over in the paint? I think they it's more of a crockpot when I don't think you're two point. I think they get a ton of like transition like just a 15 oh spark in two minutes in the game. It's out of hand. I think North Dakota State David Richmond is just to discipline as a coach and you're right. The transition D metrics. And he talked about this. I think on their is pressured a few days ago. Like I think it's going to be a control tempo game. Doesn't matter is the question. There's a chance where far he just can't make shots. And that's where I think there's a real risk where you there's like a deja vu of the I don't know middle Tennessee or what's with the other kind of early exits that spark his head. That was a big one. That's the big one right. So if they can't if they're really cold then that's where it could get interesting. But if they even shoot halfway well. I don't know how North Dakota State scores. And you mentioned the how they play inside out the buys and do top 50 in both frequency and efficiency playing through the post. And also top 50 and kind of spot up shot making. So you can kind of piece together those synergies stats like that's how they're scoring. Michigan State size is just daunting and it's deep and it's physical and it's unlike anything that the buys and see in the summit. I think Michigan State wins. I don't know if they will let if they roll because I worry about the shooting and the lack of transition opportunities against this kind of smartish smart-ish coach team. I'm on board with the crockpot. I think the physicality edge is huge in this game like like huge. I think it's Menbers boys a little bit North Dakota State hasn't played a top 100 team all season. So I don't really care about their rebounding stats because they haven't team team Michigan State and in Michigan State Mrs. shots guess what they're grabbing the rebound and they're getting more shots. Shooting is key. Spardy does tend to make teams beat them over the top and that's what NDSU is going to take. So shooting variance is always a risk here in the tournament. But I guess especially in this game. NDSU you could get white hot but Jim Eileen towards this partens even with the big spread. Yeah I think the crockpot's the right way to look at it. Now we kind of just talked my way into it of the first to 15 here. I think North Dakota State getting some shots early over the top. Michigan State it gives up a ton of threes but because they force you to execute in the half court you can't really get anything else. And that's why there are three point defenses good every year. They've got the same Houston quality where point percentage defense is consistent with their system. I think they're going to go to state could potentially get hot because they have a bunch of different shooters. I just I don't see them hanging with the physicality. No, no top 100 opponents skews so many of their unadjusted rate stats. So I'm with both these guys. I think Michigan State ends up pulling away their big game for fears and his screen navigation. All right, the 710 game well timed update here on UCLA. Donovan Dent apparently looks very good in practice. Sounds great. Bill Ado needs another day or two per Macaron. He's got a mild knee sprain. I think he's going to be fine for this one. Ultimately, UCLA been playing fantastic lately. That's why they're laying six over UCF and a 710 game. Kyle go to you first. UCF has faded since they blew up BYU. Some of that's injuries a little bit. I guess, but man, I don't know about the spread, but I'm definitely picking UCLA. Bill Ado status is huge. Dent's playing unreal. UCF's slumping into the field. I am surprised this is five to half six with Kempah and four and Bill Ado questionable. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. And I don't like UCLA playing in Philly, guys. I hate to be like. I hate to play simple jack over here, but UCLA doesn't really went on the East Coast a whole lot. They have an issue playing away from UCLA from playing away from California, the West Coast. And UCF is, they overachieved all season with a roster that's really mid-majorie in Caliber Matt with some Milwaukee guys, but they're old. They're very, very experienced. I don't think UCLA rules them over. Now, they are outside of the top 100 defense and UCLA could really pick them apart on the offensive. And especially Bill Doe's healthy, especially the way Dent is playing. But I kind of lean towards UCF at plus six from a spread perspective. Yeah, UCLA away from home. They won at USC. That's doesn't count. Lost at Minnesota, lost Michigan state, Handley, Michigan, Handley, beat Oregon, doesn't count West Coast lost by doubles at Ohio States, beat Penn State, doesn't count. Wisconsin, Iowa also lost. Yeah, there's a theme here, right? And Kronin, I think, played that, took the high road in his presser. He's like, "Oh, no, we've done this, but we're tested." It's like, "Yeah, okay, you've been tested, but you failed those tests." I kind of like the idea of Don and Dent Jim fully healthy, which it sounds like he will be in an uptempo type game. I think he could have a monster game here. I dicey Bill Doe Doe does concern me. UCLA is not begun on the boards, and that's where UCF's really tilted the scales in their favor. They're sure they've really gotten after the glass props to dock into that stuff or kind of finding a new edge in their sort of DNA. And maybe that kind of helps them. But I think in an uptempo game, I like Dent and the Bruins Kai despite the travel. I think Overs actually might leave in this game. I actually think it's because it's sort of a high scoring type game. Yeah, I can see Kronin let them run a little bit. Dent has 78 assists and six turnovers in his last eight games. And that includes one game where I only had one assist in no turnovers because he left early because of injury. The thing that intrigues me a little or I was at least happy to see UCLA was good at the big 10 tournament in Chicago. Away from neutral L.A. neutral, not a road game that mildly encouraging to me. They are still 330th and away from home ranking per has a metrics. So tells you they have definitely been better at home. But if they get Dent back out there healthy, I love that back court with him Clark and Perry. That's like three guys that can score create two of them are lights out shooters sitting off the wings with Dent creating and even Bill Dowe banged up and missing the game against Purdue. They hung around and covered that came lost by seven without Dent without Bill Dowe. I think the team supporting cast is stepped up. So I guess I leaned their way. This is going to be a tough one for me to figure out how to bet. I like Matt's over lean there. All right, last game in this region will give quick region picks and move to the West Yukon versus Ferman. Matt mentioned he thinks maybe Ferman was the best team in the socon. I tend to agree. They're the six seed in the conference tournament. But they are not the same team they were from most of the year. They had a bunch of injuries. Different starting lineups. They pulled a red shirt on Cole Bowser who is like a monster athlete off the bench. His brother Cooper Bowser gives them real size and the paint. They've got a stretch big in Charles Johnston and an awesome point guard in Alex Wilkins freshman that's kind of come into his own high usage guy. Kai Yukon's got a little bit of injuries. Jail Stewart TBD maybe going to be okay. DeMari got banged up in the biggest tournament. But it's expected to be okay. I think he's expected to be all right. You kind of like 20 and a half total of 137 Mr. Mickey Cune. You know, it's big. I don't think Ferman has a chance in this. Yeah, I've been saying to fade the socon all year. And I'm like talking myself off Ferman. And it's kind of why the socon was horrible. It was the worst socon in a long time. They played two top 100 teams all year. It was the beginning of the year. They're different team like you mentioned, but it was Northern Iowa lost by 16. It was high point lost by 26. I don't think everyone likes to mention they're huge top five and height. Fine. It's not functional against Yukon. It just isn't. It doesn't matter how the rebounding is not overwhelming. They cannot force fouls, which is huge. Yukon's I think one of their big kryptonites is getting foul trouble with Terris Reed, especially. I don't think Ferman's going to do that against them. So I lean towards Yukon at 20 and a half. I, yeah, my numbs made this like 22. I agree. I just I love Ferman. And I like the idea of, you know, I think they had a decent giant killing quote unquote profile, but this matchup, I don't think it works against just a because Yukon's really good. The issue of Ferman is they turn the ball around because they run very intricate offense. A lot of backdoor cuts. They take a lot of high risk, higher where passes. That's why usually you see them shoot like 70% from inside the arc because they get like easy layups and dunks, but they also turn it over 25 times a game. And it doesn't incorporate Wilkins, who is their stud, freshman point guard, who's probably going to get all kinds of money showered on him in the portal poaching off season. Hopefully he stays. But you know, if Demory's healthy, he's going to totally just disrupt him. And if you take cut off the head of the snake, I don't know how Ferman offense operates in your right kind of size will be negated. I love Bob Richie. Ferman's one of the teams law with or I will, I want to do others. I'm just like happy they're here very clearly rooting for them in the most biased way, but just don't think they have the chops to compete in this one. Yeah, I remember against the match against Virginia fears back. Like this is perfect because they're not going to get out of tempo. Yes. Yes. Yukon's not going to ramp up the tempo either. But the as Kai said, that height numbers a little bit miragey like Cooper Bowser's 215 pounds. Teres Reed can still shove him around the lane if he wants to. And this is of course Yukon getting back outside the biggest where they are much more dominant since 2020. Number one team in the country and against the spread record 48 and 24. That's Dan Hurley. I know part of that is going undefeated in the 2024 season. Like they were obnoxiously good in those two title team years. So it's skewed by that. But I do think there's something to it where the big East coaches have them a little bit more figured out. And it's it's not the same team when they're in league play. I get outside of it and playing in for your team. And I have some fear there. So lean to lean to Yukon. Don't have a lot of take on the total maybe under because I think it's going to be slow. I think so. Let's do let's do region picks here. Fellowes Matthew. Go to you first because you are the blue devil. Do they waltz to the final four? No, I me and my buddy are edgy. We kind of disagreed on this. I think it's a tough draw a really tough draw for Duke, especially because you have hyper physical. I would say sort of high upside teams in St. John's Kansas and Michigan state, which I think you know, Duke beat Michigan, stay on the road. But still with I especially if how healthy or available big pad is that could be really a crypt. So I mean, Duke has two three potential tough matchups. That's excluding Yukon who I think we all believe is still a really good to see. You know, Jim, you're sort of souring on that relative to like Houston or Iowa State, given how they played fair. But man, I think it's a tough draw. Anyway, all that said, I like the Johnny's. It's kind of like my I think the winner of St. John's Kansas is going to sneak out of this region. I really don't know. Yeah. I did. First of all, I think this region is amazing. St. John's underseated Michigan state. You could argue is underseated. I don't have to say it's 25 in Kempom. I mean, yeah, it's it's a really tough region. I think it's going to be Duke against Michigan state, Jim. And I think it's going to be the Duke with levels. Okay. Kai, go and Duke. I think in Gangba matters a lot. You saw a little bit more mortality from Duke in the ACC tournament. Almost going down to Florida State. Virginia almost got him after getting completely blown out in the first meeting. Yeah, I there's believe 22 final fours among the coaches in this in this region. Patino is a chires got one. Cronin's got one. Self. It's preloaded. Hurley's got to obviously. So very, very loaded with coaches. I'm going to go with Matt actually. I'd say to you guys is this kind of been checking. I've been calling to me. They've I know maybe the big east just isn't good, but that would also weigh on you. And I think there's just enough vulnerability with Duke with Gangba and potentially foster. Oh, foster someone was definitely out. I guess little note Duke has played in Washington DC where the regional is. Yeah. And maybe that helps them incrementally. But I will. I guess St. John's played there too at Georgetown. Right. So I was going to say John's played there. And the fact that they could see John's or Yukon like East Coast. Like that's not going to be a 90% Duke crowd. But final point here Jim on Duke just the way that they've kind of I think Duke's awesome. And But the ACC dominance was their kind of like physical bully ball identity with Boosir and those bigs I just don't think that works against some of these teams that they have to play against So it's just it's such a bad draw for Duke. I firmly believe that just identity match-up wise. So yeah top physical I want to feel so bad for Duke and that's so that horrible kind one quick thing. I've seen a lot of dumb tweets How could St. John's new kind of being the same region Jim? Yeah, because they're not geography and they're they're not a top four seed. They keep them separate if the top teams are top four seeds But because St. John's was a four or a five Which maybe they should have been a four and if they were four they would not have been allowed to be in the same region as you can but Yes, I guess that I love that it took us a half hour to even discuss any bracket I mean just I love some of the big pods out there We don't need 45 minutes on like mitigating the TV snubbed and the the rules of bracketing like it come on you caught Alan bossen's tweets But this year has the text them actually he usually has some You know, I'm sort of on board with like there is maybe some Conniving things that committee does but Alan likes to cherry a pick certain things I'm just like, oh, I don't agree with you man. I'm sorry like the The wins and losses matter like they're pretty silly. I know you have team X I know you have Vandy rated a 97 but like The wins losses Vandy was actually under siege by way, but still I agree with you All right, that's it for for the East region when I handed off Yeah, West host. I believe that is you West Coast best host best coast. Oh, best host best coast. Yes, we're starting off in the West We're gonna go Arizona L.I.U Well Fins up to the right Yeah, that's awesome. L.I.U. has got got vibes. I will say that but they're running in the Arizona Hey, here's a little list Matthew before I let you talk Arizona versus Low major competition they beat Utah tech by 26 northern Arizona by 35 Denver by 30 Norfolk by 37 Abilene by 34 Bethune by 36 South Dakota state by 28 I don't think this is close your thoughts. I don't think it is I think L.I.U. is of those two you just mentioned actually have this written out to they are the most athletic Physical physically impressive team but okay, but that's why they that's almost bad Right to do that goes both ways right so relative to that comparison base good But then like we always say like if your strength is totally negated by the better team strength Then you have no chance you have no other alternative path to success. It's like we always talk about the Cal State Fullerton versus Purdue game like five years ago or the UNC versus Texas Southern I should rule all the year right where it's like telegraphed blowout of all. Yeah, okay Well, your Texas Southern E ref 45% your misses and swag play that's great. You're playing UNC So what's gonna happen right like that's I feel like L.I.U.s problem here to your point guy. I think Yeah, Wildcats roll nothing else that here Yeah, L.I.U. L.I.U. L.I.U. loves to run and their defense is predicated. I'm taking away the three-point line Air zone is like oh you're gonna run us off the line and force us inside and play in transition Let's let's have a let's have fun here I don't we're so is pissed so don't we're just gonna be like five minutes this game and just ride the bench You're like, ah, it's a bad match up for me. Yeah, I think this is a total blowout 31 and a half I don't know we'll see but I'm going Arizona by 35 Kai next All right, we'll go next here. I am I am time stamping every single game by the way if you're listening pleasure out there on YouTube if you want to go back and check out any game we talk about I'll plug free Lifetime stamp. Yeah, go keep going you're doing a show villain. Thank you. You're so nice Villanova Utah State. Hey, this one's very fun. I am intrigued by this game a true toss up in my opinion and obviously the spread Kind of indicates that as well Utah State slight favorite minus two despite being the under seated Jared Calhoun mad had a little rant about how under seated his team was I I Tend to agree that nine was a bit low. I had them as an eight. I think some people could have had them on the seven line Do we automatically Jim just say hey, it's the mountain west in the tournament or is there a little more nuance here? I think that has to be a part of it right? It's part of it for me and I was gonna start my little die tribe on this game by just pouring one out that we only get one mountain west team to fade it is a Real bummer that there's not like six as there usually is I'm still tempted by them a little because I don't know This version of Villanova with no Matthew Hodge out for the year with a tornado CL like that takes away a little bit of Their edge in the front court. They still got big Duke inside, but you know Utah State. I think I like their perimeter more with false love Being a star I came loose. I've been great Matthew, but Villanova against his own if you take away Lindsay Then I think they can you can be okay against Villanova's own offense I guess maybe Devon asked you can give it to us one more time fellas after we've talked some crap I don't know. I've gone back and forth Yeah, he was legitimately good this year. I have to tip my cap to him. I'll give him a spin on the video you've earned it Devon I'll even move my hat a skew as a tribute to Devon asked you to shall skew Matt I ended up picking Villanova, but I have very little confidence in this game I'm gonna go nerd nerd alert here. Villanova had the eighth most efficient zone offense in the country That was on a very low low Didn't see who do they see it against wells against I think Play some zone maybe I think pen did and then there's a you so again But you look at some of these like situational stats. It's not just low sample, but like skewed toward opponent, right? so And I think without hot you such a great like kind of stretchy zonebuster I think he's not a great passer, but he's a good fit to Sort of help break that bus that zone if Calhoun decides to play it Which I think he will lean heavily on in this matchup. I think this is the game the mountain west sort of gets off the mat Calhoun starts the resurrection the mountain west off the You know kind of the coal burning ashes that they've been on the last few years. Hey, it game is in San Diego state Kai they have played at Vahas many a time Coast Historical stuff that mountain west has been fallen prey to is they've not gotten great draw Interflocation and timing this is like okay. Hey here. We'll give you one team on west We're gonna play it in a venue where you're familiar with anotone your time zone prove it to us and I think they get it done Yeah, I didn't have a huge opinion on this one honestly Matt's kind of skewing me towards Utah state. He just he just moved me to my my gut Said Nova. I just really think I know the zone stats, right? But it's it's such a low volume. I think it disrupts their their handoff or pick and roll offense Which is kind of their their thing and even with mr. Esque I'm leaning I'm switching my lean over towards Utah state slight over lean I think more offense than than defense in this game for both teams. Yeah, I don't know if he had an allegedly that lab We're done with mr. He's he's gotta be done. You'd you'd have to think so you'd have to think so Yeah, okay, let's move on Wisconsin high point Jim is a Wisconsin adjacent Person from the state of Wisconsin. Oh, hey, this one's a single digits now I opened up a little higher. It's down nine and a half in some places in favor of the measures more for you and me good Yeah Oh high points really good. They couldn't hang with pretty last year Once again for the second straight season. They have not played a power team all year That's probably a big deal Jim they have a top five defensive turn over eight Wisconsin's about as good as any team in the country and handling the ball. That's bad badger's a bigger high point Lot of talented wings small guards. I don't think Wisconsin is gonna kill him on the glass, but Not nine and a half I felt better with 11 for high point. I'm not sure I'm taking the Panthers Yeah, I lean Wisconsin here. I just I don't think high point plays up and we don't have any proof either way besides the Purdue game last year Not a single top 100 game this year just like no to go to state So not a lot to evaluate there was constant has been like the opposite of a paper tiger I don't know what we call that like a metal lion metal lion. That's right. That's exactly opposite. Yes Yeah Scientifically that is the opposite they play really well against better competition and sometimes can kind of lay some duds When they're playing down But man the bigger guards I think boy and black walk and have a big show showing here and Yeah, I'm not worried about high point force and turnovers. It was constant takes great care of the ball They should get no winter back. He almost played in the Michigan game with his ankle injury He's big for helping them on the glass They've there's a lot of talent on that high point side map But they play relatively fast and I think that is a problem against Wisconsin team that can open you up with big man shooting and guards Know how to get into the paint. So lean Badgers here You guys been all the very sound points and I agree with all of them But Wisconsin is kind of a high variance type team like I wouldn't I think if you're picking your bracket I think high point is worth a look If you're betting this game Like I would bet a high point money line or I would yeah or take Wisconsin I think like there's gonna be kind of a wide two-tailed outcome I think here. I love flim came and I would high points coach. Just want to put that in there. I think he's terrific But yeah, like I'm trying to like drum up comparisons of GM you two years ago and Wisconsin was oh a five-seed and they played a really fun Personal high offensive purple opponent James Madison But that was a James Madison team coach by Mark Binton and they're like probably right For inch top 60 and they literally beat Michigan State like at the Resilent Center, like they actually had proven they can, that style translates. I don't think high points does without that size. I think Wisconsin rolls here, but it was conscious not making shots. Always a risk with kind of how they play this year. This could be kind of a fun like, I was constant. Yeah, we knew you stung. You be mischievous. I think there's going to be people calling for the Badgers heads of frustration, but not me because I'm a Nikki Boyd stan and I think he continues to cruise on his heater that he is on lately. Early window game, it's like the lunchtime on Thursday, maybe people are like, here's the list of the best customers. That's like when the Ferman upset over Virginia happened as I recall. Purple also. Way out in Portland, zero geographical advantage for either team here. So yeah. All right. Very good points, Jim, at the buzzer. We have Arkansas Hawaii and Matthew. I wanted to back Hawaii in this tournament. I can't do it against Arkansas because Hawaii, famously, their defense, it's no help. No help defense. That's what they're all about. Maybe they stay home on shooters. The goals to make opponents beat them one on one. Arkansas is the best isolation team in the country. They absolutely thrive in this environment. It cuffs unstoppable. And Hawaii is going to give them exactly what they want. It might be as simple as, hey, Hawaii is a really, really good physical team with an awesome defense. 15 points. I probably take that. But Arkansas, I think it's just too good right now. Just one of the SEC tournament. They're playing their best basketball. Big spread. I kind of lean towards the hogs. I do too. Here's my, I think that's going to be like the, the, the nerd, the nerd balls, dramatic take is like how unique Hawaii's defense is, but they are very long. And I think they're deceptively athletic where they can't probably guard one on one. But like if you're around, get on, he's a smart coach, right? He's not going to have everyone go up and, and hug the airspace of the areas A cuff or billionaire rich. And like he's probably going to make a slight adjustment here where he's like, hey, we'll play off a little bit. We'll stick to our principles. Again, this is sort of where I think you over look at some of these like on paper matchups. You're sort of like discounting the fact that these are smart coaches that don't recognize the same things we're seeing. I bet you see some unique adjustment that Hawaii makes. That's, I'm just speculating. I can't imagine they're going to try and guard as tightly as they have all your against big West teams against Fing Arkansas. That's that I still ain't Arkansas. I think A cuff is that good, Jim. I do worry about their depth and A cuff not being totally healthy. Like he's kind of working a pretty heavy middle load right now as their, their depth is sort of tapering off. But I think the matchup points, Kai made are the right ones, even though they are, I think obvious and probably will be regurgitated on many other platforms and sorts. Yeah. Two things here. I wish this was a Hawaii team that played slow like they used to and they have ramped up tempo on offense and defense this year. They're forcing more turnovers. They're playing a little bit more phonetically and I don't want that against the Arkansas team that never turns the ball over and has two elite self creating guards. And then the situational part of this is probably tougher for Arkansas. Played Sunday, got to go home to Fayetteville from Nashville and then fly across the country. This is a geographically advantaged game for Hawaii if you want to call it that. Since it's out west in Portland, it's just like not a fun turnaround for Arkansas with all that stuff going on. But it's if they were 280th in tempo like they kind of have been recently, they turned this game into a half court slog. I'd like that more. Now they played Oregon in the first game of the year and lost by one on 76 possessions, but that's because Oregon didn't have shell stat and was completely broken to start the season. But that was at home. They got Arizona stand on the island and that was a 75 possession game. Like they haven't really shown the propensity to slow it down against better teams. And if you run with Arkansas, just good luck. So what's like a fast crock pot, Kai, where it's I think they like stick around a little early, but there's like this gas pedal. Serious. Yeah, reverse here. I don't know. I guess maybe I just I think it's probably going to be a little bit of a fork, only a fast fork. They're going to give them the people's rainbow, Jim. Sure. The people's rainbow. I don't know what that is. What do you call it? Your rock fan, people's elbow, people's elbow, Hawaii rainbow warriors. Oh, cool. Yeah, I want to tell flat like a rock like a rock. Like a rock. Okay. I don't know. I don't know. WF guy, Kai. That's that's the old school WF. I mean, WB back in the day, maybe 90s. That was F though with Austin with. Yeah, I don't know. I don't want to like pretend I'm that guy. I'm not. Good. That's not us. We'll get a little slap happy as the show keeps going. Oh, I like Joey calling it a pressure cooker. I think that's a trick. Yes. Yes. Air from air fryer. BYU NC State, Texas. Do we want to give a quick thought on the playing game here? The pig fellas, NC State, Texas. Yeah, defense on both sides of the ball here. Rematch of a game from Mali that was 192 to 97. I'm like 71. I thought they played before the year. That's not familiar. The commissioner talked about how hard it was to move around the first four matchups. And so they just had to do the rematch and relax that principle. But yeah, neither of these teams has a prayer of guarding the other one. Should be a shootout to high total for a reason. But I'm intrigued if you get one of these offenses against BYU's bad defense and very debancer and right heavy offense. Matt, any thoughts on playing game? I like NC State here. I think their Wade said when they were announced in no one said it. He said like no one said a word like they were silenced. I think everyone was like pissed because they were supposed to be like very infielding. I'm pretty shocked they're in a playing game. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's like in a mode because this NC State team has been so erratic because they're very emotional and I think it's sort of a blessing in a curse. It's kind of like. Yeah, I'd say what's funny? They have like Darrym Williams and like guys who've been around for a while. Like guys in Tray Holland and play at Michigan. It's like a guy's a chill. The immature, but he's super vaudeau. I think it's kind of why he left this anyway. I think they're pissed off and I think they roll here, frankly. Wow. They're proper. Yeah. I do a little bit of revenge from the. I think they roll. I lean Texas actually. I think Vokiaidus has a field day inside against them as he, I mean, he had a good game in first game. They shot 33 free throws in game one. I think that's going to be repeatable. And I think Texas can line him up from deep again, maybe 16 or 32 from the line. I mean, there's better points here for Texas. I'm just this is one I'm like, yeah, screw the screw the club. Yeah, Texas also does take away the three. They've gotten lit up this year, but they do prioritize. They are. Yeah, they extend. Yeah, lean Texas. And then Jim, I like the winner if you're to beat BYU. We always kind of see this pig game end up in the round of, round of 32, sweet 16. BYU is going to have the best player on the floor and they picked it up a little bit in the big 12 tournament. But I, I lean towards Texas or in C state to beat him. Yeah, I do too. I think that the potent offenses against that BYU defense that faded hard. In the year BYU 297 in momentum per has a metrics 320 second away from home 278th and paper tiger. Like there's a lot of things that don't excite me about BYU with this version of them without Saunders to give a little more shooting gravity and open things up for debaensa and write. It just makes their shots harder. And while neither of those teams advancing has good defenses like Dale and Swain's an okay matchup for debaensa. He stays out of foul trouble. Darian Williams, not the worst matchup for debaensa if he stays out of foul trouble. So I do agree, Kai. I will be picking either of those teams over BYU in a little seed upset. I don't know what the line will be, but probably pretty close to pick him. I will too. Both teams, NC State, Texas, terrific shooting teams, skill teams, both really good zone offense teams. And I think you'll see a lot of zone for BYU in that game, which they've sort of leaned on late because they have no depth. So yeah, tough draw for BYU. I think debaensa will score 40 against either team. Yes. We'll see. I'm sure every book will have those props juiced up by five, six points, but I do think that's going to be where I lean over and whatever happens there to over and the play in the pig winner. You know, it's funny. I was like, oh, yeah, let's do the bar tour of it. Sort here since February 1st. How bad is BYU? 46th. What's the defense? Their defense is one of the top three. Okay. Every point is outside the top 200. I think he can't guard anybody right now. Okay, but Texas is 51 with 151 defense and NC State is 57 over the 217 defense. Yeah, even worse. Texas has lost five of six. NC State's lost seven of nine. Like none of these teams are playing well. They don't want to be here. These teams don't want to be here. I can't. I really am surprised that you stay caught on playing game that that was very surprising to me. Okay, fellows. Let's move on. Gonzaga, Kenasau State last time. And Kenasau State was in the tournament, which was a couple of years ago. They gave Xavier everything they could handle to the wire. Should have won that game. They were up late in that game. This game worries me more than Xavier Jim. They're matching against Gonzaga because it's extremely up tempo. That's worrisome against Gonzaga, high possession game against them. However, Kenasau State only lost by 11 Alabama. 19 to South Florida is not great, but okay. Another example of a high possession game. I think the Zag defense is too disciplined. I think the Kenasau defense is non-existent. And I think the high spread's pretty warranted in this one. Yeah, Jimmy and Coddle had 24. against South Florida and 20 against Alabama. And he's gone now. I don't think Conference USA was very good this year. It was really balanced. I don't think it was all that good at the top. And that's why you get to succeed through. He's not really gonna blow me away. Gonzaga's defensive versatility is outstanding with Warley with the tie on Grant Foster. They've kind of had to shift that identity without Bradenhof who I'm almost positive will not play in the NCAA tournament. He's like doing light on court work says Mark few. That doesn't sound very close to contact, much less playing five on five. So I think this is the version we're gonna get at Gonzaga. I think EK eats inside despite, you know, Lou and Taylor having some size for Kenna saw. He's just too skilled. Got two good of footwork. Gonzaga knows how to get it to him. And yeah, a lot of the possessions. Gonzaga's offense is perfect for that. Maddie, I'm thinking Gonzaga's gonna blow them out. I really like this kind of sauce team like a lot. I just don't like that this version of Gonzaga's actually very well suited to avoid like a major upside here because you're right. This is the athleticism of their wing with Grant Foster and a mostly healthy Warley and a senti. Like they are very good defensively, especially kind of that two, three, four spot. - Okay. - Which is, I think huge against Kenna's off stage, which basically is leans on these kind of big playmaking you know, heavy picking role RJ Johnson's like a fire hydrant lead guard. They are like I said kind of, they are a get off the bus team. They are an athletic team. This is not gonna be like a menverse boys situation. They're just gonna be like one team is probably more talented and just a better operation than the other. And because Gonzaga's not like a soft, unathletic team, like you might perceive them from years past, I think it's just, it's a tough draw for Kenna saw. I will be on Kenna saw that. I do think it's too big. - Point half, point half. - A big number. - Huge. - Yeah. - I will be on Kenna saw here. We've reached this point in the show, Jim, where we get to talk about our Missouri Tigers. Are you excited? - No. - No one's fun. - I just, I just, I just, remember my fate of Gonzaga last year when George was down like 34 to three to start the game. - Right. - Like that. - Yeah, let's talk Mizoukai. Hey, it's in St. Louis at least. Yeah. - Huge. And yes, people are up in arms about that. Well, suck it. So. - This is way. - It's not like it's on campus. - Yeah. - This one opened up two and a half. I hate that on the Tigers, but I took it. And I told people, I wouldn't be surprised if Mizou ends up a pick in this one because of the fact that it's in St. Louis. I think more and more people will talk about them in this game. I'm curious here, you guys think, I think it match up with Miami and side. Matthew, I think they can take away Renew that are in defense is very good. And the Cain's, they lack shooting. And they aren't super-term. - Yeah. - For forcing, which is huge against Mizou, who does have foibles, giving the ball away. And also finally, after playing freaking Drake in freaking Princeton, Mizou doesn't get an intricate offense against them. It's fantastic. We had like a like team right here, like a team that's physical, just like us. - But they get a staff who worked with Dennis Gates for two years and knows. - I am a little bit worried about that. - Yes. - The fact that CY was on staff for how long? - I think it's like a bit. - It's a bit. - Yeah. - Yeah. - So, and Jailucus talked about that. And you also had the fact that Jailucus coached Mark Mitchell at Duke. So a lot of fun, like kind of like past crossover endeavors. Game is that enterprise center for those who don't. That, if you did, you would know that betting the under at every game played at this venue was a good proposition. Miami can't shoot. That's not gonna matter at this venue, 'cause I think they're just gonna brick and go chase the glass. We'll see how many offensive boards they get against Mizou, whether they're in Manor Zone. I think this game's kind of ugly, actually. Like a really gross game. It got bet down to 147. - Yeah. - Is that a favor of Miami or Mizou? I don't know. I was not very impressed with Miami for my cleaning the AC tour. I was kind of wanting to bet Mizou here, but I just ended up being like, yeah, I don't know. We'll see. - You're own seven on Mizou? Is that right? - I'm own seven that you're better at Mizou. - Do not bet the fact for my friends and my family. I will not be financially involving this game on your behalf. Thank you. You're welcome in advance. - Thank you. - Good. - You like overarching one fun, one good story. The point guard match of Donaldson versus Tio Barrett-Kai. How much floppy hair can you have on a court? That's gonna be incredible as those two guard each other for 94 feet. And then I saw somebody say program bet between Mizou fans and Miami fans. If Miami wins, everybody donates $50 to market sounds, cancer, go fund me. And if the story wins, then everybody also does that. So I thought that was a good, so let's channel this into something positive. Marcus Allen, former Mizou guy transferred to Miami and is dealing with, I think, non-Hajkins, lymphoma. On the court though, it's nice that Mizou is not the worst defensive rebounding team in the field for once, Kai. Like they do battle a little bit. Sean Phillips has helped there. Mark Mitchell is a good defensive rebounder. They are a big team all across the board. Number three in average height. That's massive against Renew against Uday. They're gonna try to force Miami into being jump shooters they do have a really good rim defense. They've been solid in that department all season long. I still lean Miami. I don't fully trust the Mizou staff to have the right game plan here. And I like Matt's point about CY and Co having some inside insight. Is Gates run good like stuff? He has like good like kind of secret sets of hearings. That's he has a few sets up his sleeve, man. I'll give you that one. Yes, and Frick's up his sleeve. He doesn't run good off. It's they run some some that cyclone whether you go back to or back screen for a layup on the baseline they get some lobs for Phillips. Also, Kai, maybe what I'm doing is picking Miami because I get every Mizou game wrong. That's fine. That might reverse jinx, Mizou into winning. I'll bet Miami and happily emotionally hedge. Fantastic. We appreciate both your and Matt sacrifice to the very times. This game is in St. Louis. The fact that Mizou could play Purdue in St. Louis is absolutely insane and congrats to you guys. Yeah, it's true. Again, the big Twitter point on that one. There's been multiple examples across the years of teams having this back advantage. Just just being in the under the lower CDI. How bracketing works. Unfortunately, I mean, that's just that's the nature of the beast. All right, Queens Purdue to finish off the region before we get to picks here. Purdue, yep, 25 and a half point favorite. No surprise there. I think many people had Queens is 16. That's not a huge difference, obviously. Purdue off the big 10 tournament when Matt kind of found out all cylinders. And we know they tend to do better against them. Software teams will say, and I will repeat the stat that I did for the other team. L.A. Queens played five power teams this year. I wanted to take the stat. You got me. You want to say it? You can say it. No, go for it. They lost to Nova by 20 to Virginia by 25 to wake by 34 to Arkansas by 28 to Auburn by 41. They don't step up well and they're ranking 322 in defense this year against the number of offense in the country. Yeah, they'll just add they were old five against the spread. Again, so teams gave up like an average of 102 points of game average. Yeah, bloodbath on boards to Jim. I think they just have to get hot and price. Yeah, the biggest differential in Q1, Q2 versus Q3, Q4 and teams with at least five games played. Yeah, me. Yeah, but we'll just kind of throw gas in the fire about the point you just said, I don't love Queens. I don't like them against Purdue. End of discussion. Yeah, Queen, like the paper tiger factor from Haslund metrics. Do you play up while or do you play better against bad teams? 364th in the country for Queens. Like I fear that the only thing that would keep this in range is Purdue just like kind of lolly gagging and playing very half court and not having this ramp up to be a super up tempo game. But man, they can name their number offensively. Purdue team portal probably something you want to take a peek at. I don't know if Queens will be hot or not. But this is like inevitably a blowout. It's hot. I don't, but I don't know. Yeah. Even if they're like if they're hot, sure, maybe there's a first to 15 factor to it. Like Ashby just launching from anywhere. Sweeger big time shooter in the front court. But there's just literally no way I can imagine them getting stops. I can't even picture it. Intangible Oscar club thought Queens was in New York and the interview up to a bolt to the material. So yeah, you know, you know Grant Litter is going to have his boys, his royals fired up. I tried to go back and dig up the pro the pre flop thoughts on fairly Dickinson. Like what do we have said the same thing? I think they had a pre-pig. Hey, that's really Dickinson team lost the Queens to bring it all around. They did full circle 2023. How ironic. Okay, region picks region picks here. I'm making Matthew start us off. Who's coming out of this region? Clark, David. What we got? This is the one I was still actually hadn't fully figured out. I think I'm going to go chalk with Zona, Jim. I just don't see a real threat to Zona. Like I just think this is the weakest two, three, four, five, six for the made for the slide up slide exception of Arkansas. But I think they're going to lose the zone. So I took Zona. Yeah, Arizona for me. I'm going to reach into my stats bag for tomorrow that I'm recording with Will. There's one other top 30 defense in this. entire region like the two the four the five the six are all bad defensively and like maybe one of them gets hot and not shoots Arizona. I just don't see that happening. I think Arizona is going to exert their will in the paint. The only other team with a good defense is Gonzaga and Tommy Lloyd knows Gonzaga in and out like that. Be kind of a fun match opinion lead. I hope we get it. Purdue might work that though. So I'll say Arizona the final for them. Yeah. I'm thinking Gonzaga Arizona. I'm going to Arizona as well. Arkansas is obviously the team that's going to be the sexy upset upset pick for you and go with one here. Badgers over Arkansas. I noticed in the consensus bracket. Yes. Very interesting. I'm going to hand the mic to Matthew who's going to lead us through the Midwest region. Matthew. The home city of Chicago. Matthew Chicago was of the Jordan gift. You got to prove Chicago. We talking pig first. Oh, yeah. Let's just hit the pig. I want to belabor it. Do you want to do you want to doubt how deep I care more about your 16. I care more about this 16 seat pig than the other one. Yeah. I have a stronger opinion on this one. I have a lot of work. That's my take. I'll give him this pig. I'm out from from CBB analytics Matthew. The the best team in the country and net rating over the last 10 games. Rod net rating. Not not adjusted is Duke number two number three are you and BC and Howard like they have been eviscerating the teams in their league. They're really, really good. I kind of thought you and BC had a chance at a 15 and they're in a playing game. But that's probably because the American East was horrific. Kai, I think you and BC I also do. I would also say I like both teams shooting in the front court enough to have some mild interest in a high number on first team against a against mission. Yeah. I pulled them away from the rim big guys make some shots. Yeah. I took you and BC pick, Matt. I hate to hear that you're like Howard. I think I'm blinded by a little bit. I watched the NBC Vermont game and I love DJ Armstrong. So I am definitely like clouded right now. Can he go eight for 10 from three again? That's not great. But you and BC is basically strong at everything Howard takes advantage of for normal teams. They're an awesome defensive rebounding team. They do not foul and they do not turn the ball over. Howard has to get offensive rebounds. They have to force turnovers start their transition break and they have to get the free throw line to score. They to gate all three and they can shoot and they have some game breakers and guards at their guards are legit. UMBC. So yeah, I like the retrievers Matthew. Bark bark. All right. Well, good luck to you. I like Howard. Let's move on to Michigan versus the winner. I love Howard. No bad. Nothing. I just I watch a play. I've always seen UMBC play twice this year and I did not watch any of their conference term in action. So this is a good old fashioned. I tested. I watched him. When did you watch him play? I test bias. So who wins Michigan or them? I think Michigan probably squeaks by both teams. I bet Jim's points right though. The fact that these two are very like perimeter oriented could actually give Michigan a little bit of like annoyance to start. But I just don't see anything like now Michigan's winning. Let's go to the eight eye game. Georgia versus R. Can we say R Billikins or have we disown them with their recent foibles coming down the stretch. I still love your last I like I believe you can go to Mizzou and appreciate Slough. We're not right. I heard there's a riff raff and now that neck of the woods. But I'm a Billy boy thrown through and I actually like this match up. I feel like Slough is kind of match of dependent who they got and how much I'd like them to win first round. Georgia very up tempo. Yet I do have some size up front, but like really they're built in and not like all that similar to slough. But much more like open floor pressure trying to force turnovers attack and transition. This should be a fun game like a very fun game late night. I think of one of the last games to go off Thursday. I think slew wins here Jim plus three. I think they get it done. Yeah, done to two two and a half mostly. I like slew as well. I think obi look and pulse a real away from the rim. Really big playmaker. I thought slew actually kind of found it in the second half against GW who's admittedly terrible in the second half. Dayton has been playing well. Of late they got him with the tip of it at the buzzer. I like slew. Yeah, this is ugly and not exciting to say, but I like the under Georgia played wow. Georgia put a lot slower in the SEC. There were ninth nationally in possession length in the country, but fourth in the SEC when they got in there, they kind of slowed things down. That's longer defensive possessions. I don't think this is going to quite turn into the insane track meet that most people are expecting in 170 total would indicate. But I like slew being able to spread them out. They've got some bigger guards that I think they can pick on the smaller guards. They will post up the on brown. They'll put him inside. They'll post up a mar and macatri at times. I think that's a nice little matchup advantage for them. So it's fairly switchable one through four. That means catchings is not like some crazy mismatch for them. So I actually like slew here, Mr. McEwan. Yeah. I understand it's still two top 10 tempos offensively. So I do hope we get a lot of scoring. I think it's a really fun game to watch. I do think Avila, Avila has a huge advantage pulling zero away from the hoop. I think you mentioned that. That's going to be a big matchup point, especially his passing ability and also sticky quick. He's got a little wiggle to his game. For the nerd standpoint, you're met Georgia's transition defense elite, elite per synergy. And they have the athleticism. And I would say physical edge on slew. And slew has an athlete. Thames is a hell of an athlete. I think Georgia has a little bit more. But with slew's offense, they're shooting ability. And my last point, the better coach, I will go a jashers in a one game sample size here against Mike White. Yeah. Well, last two little things. slew doesn't punish Georgia's defensive rebounding, which is sort of a problem because Georgia's terrible at it. And then I also almost like the slew lost a game early in the eight ten tournament because Robbie has got the planner for Shytis in his foot, given the extra day. I'm okay with that. Now I think that's huge. I think is the fact that he'll be healthier because that's where the slew has been picked on. It's the glass. Like it's almost eight ten matchups. I thought they just got bullied. And Georgia is a good matchup where you're right. They're not. They're good on the offensive glass, but I think a healthier obvious and the fear of letting slew out in transition. I think if you're white to your point, Jim, kind of slowed it down late. Probably actually works in slew's favor. Good chess match. Silicically here. I'm actually anxious to see it. As I mentioned before, Mike White, associate head coach, Abernathy, who was a long time disciple of Dusty May, who is doing Yo Man's work. If Georgia plays Michigan next round, that'll be a fun little mentor. There's meant to match up there. May was on his staff and apparently May and Josh shirts are like best friends. Very close as well. Yes. Let's move on. Texas Tech versus Akron in the 512, Tupin Mack, shout out to the Zippity-Dewa's Kai. Do we feel bad for Texas Tech? Yes, we do. They played on a, it was like Disney on ice, the fake quarter in the big West big 12 tournaments. Christian Anderson got banged up. Lots got banged up. They're already on top. I think they'll be fine. I mean, obviously, Toppins out for this game. We've seen their offensive to be prolific even without him, but they have lost three of their last five. Kind of limping in here, but not maybe of Akron, the current version of Akron, like we're going to spread and shred you. Probably works in Texas Tech's favor. I think Tech's going to win here comfortably as much as I like Akron. Don't you believe? Yeah, I do. I think it's not a good, it's a bad match up for Akron, frankly, just a better version of what they are. That's kind of what I think. See, I think Akron got really fortunate with their 5 in this game, just like a brittle 5. That's I get you that because Tech will not overwhelm them with size. That's, I think that was their biggest weakness because they're very, very small. I would know Toppins. I know Texas Tech's to lessen big guys, but it's not the same. They're not going to play through the paint against Akron. They're going to shoot three. Now Akron does pack it in and that makes me a little nervous, but this game is also very susceptible to variants because of that. Akron shoots a lot of three. Texas Tech shoots a lot of three. It's going to be a three point kind of battle here. I think Tavari Johnson, Christian Anderson is going to be cinema to our Johnson, the best player in the Mac. He should have won player of the year. I have a hard lean towards Akron here, Jim. I think 7 and a half is a little short. I will say that. I was hoping to get a bit more and maybe we still will as the week goes on. We'll see. But I think Akron can hang. Yeah. This one, you mentioned the variants with all the three point shooting. Maybe that's a money line that then where like there's a chance Akron's hot Texas cold and they're up like 15 and you're like, holy crap. What's constant high point ask? I agree, Jim. Good take. Yeah. Yeah. Surprise. It's below Kenpon when Toppins has been a big part of building Texas Texas Kenpon ranking to where it is. Gross likes to change defenses defensively, mix and press mix and some zone because they're small. Good freaking luck against that back court with Anderson with at well. And even J. Pettie, I think that's really good. That is scary to me. Texas Tech's defense is going to play heavy drop coverage. They take away ball movement. Like they're six defensive assist rate. So Akron's ball movement isn't going to win much here. But Akron has like real individual creators, Tavari Johnson being the top option there. I think you can see a lot of points in this one that it's just or it's you're at the mercy of three point shooting because there's going to be a lot of shots going up from deep. But I think both teams have routes of scoring efficiently. I'm just going to side with the better back court, which I believe is Texas Tech. It does sound like Anderson's fine. by the way, from his growing slip and LeWon Watts, also okay, from his little ankle issue. So Texas Tech should be full strength as other than top and. - Yep, I came away with the not gonna, and again, this is one of those where, like Kansas team that's injured or banged up or limping in in terms of health, the extra day off playing on Friday is pretty huge. This is one of those Friday slots. Let's move forth. Halabama, Mr. McKean and playing Hofstra. Big news today out of Tuscaloosa. - Oh yeah. - Some nefarious. - I'm actually dragging baby. - Yes. A lot of it, Jim, a full pound. Like, if you can like lift weight of the. - It's a car. - That's a lot of the. - If it's a full LB, if you're not measuring in ounces. - If you can pick it up at the weight room, if it's on the rack, that's, you know, it's a lot. Uncleare of Aden Holloway is playing for those who are real talking, chicken, right now he's out of school. - I don't know if this is public, but per trillion in the discord. This is why you should join basketball interview folks. - I know. - He will not travel with the team. - He's already. - He's already a type of player for a veteran person. - Yeah. - So, I mean, is he their, I hope people were kind of doing the kind of like to look for like the viewing theory. I feel like that's important. He's probably their second third best player. Maybe his impact is maybe depending on line of mix and matching, maybe they're fine without him. But man, I think the story here is Hofstra and how good they've been all year. It's like one of those few teams, you can't really poke holes at what they've done. They've been good against really good teams. They're only kind of flaws are when they've been hurt and they are healthy. It's not a deep rotation, but I think in this game, if they can control tempo with the shot making that they bring it to the back court, the size they have up front, maybe Alabama kind of praise on those kind of plotting bigs with kind of spread them out and making threes, that's the matchup here. But I think Hofstra keeps this close. I was sort of convinced of that by some folks that this court had talked about today. Yeah, this is the like one money line dog. I really like with all these double digit dogs in the 413 and 314 matchups. I just love that they slow it down. They've got two gigantic centers in Sunday and Onuay 2 that can battle Sherella inside. And you do not get layups. It's Hofstra. They're elite in two point attempt distance. Number six in the country. Number three in the country, two point percentage defense. Yes, skewed by playing the CAA. It's not adjusted for competition. But I think Alabama who will not take those mid-range jumpers is just going to have to fire threes. And so you're at the mercy of some variance there. But it's going to be so many jump shots. Like I bet Alabama takes 67% of their field goal attempts from three. And so it really does come down to it. So let's go in. Oh, and by the way, talking head phrase, Ayn Hollow is one of their best shooters. Maybe their best shooter. And he's not going to be there. So that really hurts that potential. Hofstra might have the better guard duo now with Holloway not there. I mean, Edmied and Davis can really score. Collexton said on CBS Sports on Sunday night, the wild card for us is a plotnikov hits like two or three threes and just opens the cord up a little bit and gives a little more room for Edmied and Davis to operate and their pigs to work on the offensive glass a little bit. I'm taking Hofstra Kai. I think this is-- I'll bet him spread. I think this is a good matchup for him. I'm surprised line hasn't come down really from the Holloway news. 11 and a half. They're a very strong 13, very strong. They want it pit. They want it Syracuse. They hung at UCF. So they're proven against power competition. Yeah, I know. Make your jokes about pit and Syracuse. But hey, they want to the road to those places. They're not easy places to win for a mid major. They have extremely tough defense, especially the interior. Of course, Bama's allergic to the interior. So maybe that's a good point in this game. And I also love Cruz Davis. He's the game-breaking type of guard. You need that sort of talent playmaker. Hofstra has it. Their transition even is excellent. 93% time on the country in stopping transition. I do also lean towards Hofstra Mat. They're going to try to crawl this game down with their tempo. He is-- do those Bama bigs make threes. I'm a realon. Sherelle is not much busier, but he will take some bull bowing because those will be there against Hofstra. Those shots will be there. If they're not going in, I think this gets very tight but hole for Crimson Tide. But we will see. Yeah. I'm seeing somebody's like, they're really going to go a whole Alabama, pretty good not mention of the Baron file. Yes. I mean, he's the best player in the court. For sure. That's not-- I think we're not mentioning because we know to expect from him. It's probably like 25 points and six assists. Cannot Hofstra overcome that. Hofstra makes it a little bit his own to play down 10% of possessions this year. It wouldn't mind that as a wrinkle. Don't play as your primary defense, but a good wrinkle against Elbow. Yep. Agreed. And Bama's own offense was not very good. Even they didn't see it much, but they was not. They play such a-- they scheme their whole offense around playing its band in defense when they see zone, which is not very often. Obviously, they're just not as-- Yeah. They want to drive the ball off the bounce. They're talking to do that way. We'll see. Who's their stopper, by the way, defensively? Is that Edmond the freshman? Or is it-- I'm not sure they've really got one. That's why we're-- Yeah, the final thing now that I mentioned was like, man, they don't really have a good, like, all-in-ball lockdown guy. Maybe-- yeah, if I want to probably go as off this game. It's the base. Davis doesn't commit fouls. Like, it doesn't indicate that way, but he fouled out in overtime against Towson and had real foul trouble in the other two C.A. games too. So that's a little concerning to me. That he's battling that in both games, but we'll see. Let's continue. We are now at the bottom part of the Chicago Rikai Tenecy versus the playing winner of SMU Miami Ohio, which we will start. Top pick. Do you want to do a 30-minute die-trap? And while Miami was slotted in the playing game, and is that where they deserved to belong? Or do you want to break down the-- It's kind of fair. In fact, there's seven point dogs to SMU. It's not a seven? Oh, my God, it was a good-- Yeah, I have a whole bit. I have a good-- I kind of wish it would have taken nine and a half. Thought it was going to keep going. Yeah. Same. All I got to say, Matt, is-- and I guess they're popular dog. Do not underestimate Miami. I think there's something to be said about it, too, but knows how to win and is confident. These guys are in efforts. I think they can hang it around. Obviously, they have a massive speed, athletic disadvantage against SMU. Probably no BJ. Where's the rest of me? That definitely helps. But SMU-- And he's going to help us. He's just totally talking about-- Yeah, that's blown smoke. SMU's defense, Jim, is nothing to write home about. I think the Red Hawks can find easy buckets. And there's among one of the best teams in the country and execution. I know their schedule has been poor. I realize that. It's really hard to do what they did this season. If Auburn played the exact same schedule, they would not have gone 31 and 1. Boom, I said it. I said it. I'm very-- Yep. And SMU's defense-- What holds from doing-- I'm seeing Edwards is going to play. Is it official? He keeps-- And he says we think he's going to play. He's going to help us. But the way he says it sounds like he's not playing. OK, that was next to my cue for press or something. Let's get SMU that spread back up. How about that? Because I really thought I was going to keep going. I didn't-- And we're just going to play full strength. 100%. Everyone hammer SMU. God, yeah, God. I wanted the 9 1/2, too. I can't believe this. So I guess I leaned towards my name at 7 Jim. I'm not sure I'll bet that one, though. Yeah, Edwards is just the guy that just makes everything else work for them. He's the best perimeter defender. He lets Boopy and Drump here focus on scoring at times, because he can create and is not nearly his scoring focused on the offensive end. My animal high wasn't bereft of athletes. I think Ian Elmer could play for a Power 5 team next-- Totally. --the transfer. --to do so. Souter played in the P5. We'll folk played P5. They're not completely out of luck there. And Scaljax Emergent since Ipsaro got hurt. Has been really, really impressive. I think they're maybe a little underrated, because they played so many close games. Like, yes, you'd love to see them blow out teams, but never happened to them. Never got blown out. I know they haven't played anybody of SMU's caliber, but I'm not as intimidated by them if there's no Edwards. I think Miami hangs around. I don't know if I'm going to pick them out right. But I think both these teams get steam roll by Tennessee. That's what I'll leave. Yeah. I think Miami's going to make this really close. I've said last month how important I think B.J. Edwards is to the Sesame Team. If he is announced back in, I bet that Lion goes up. If you want to bet Miami later. And if he's affected, I think he's a key difference maker in this game. If he's out, I think Miami's got a chance to win this game. A very good chance to win this game. Because I'm with you, I think they're-- because they were winning so many close games, we're discounting them as the ability to lay up. But SMU's not like Tennessee up in terms of physicality, which Miami has not seen in the back, which Tennessee will absolutely bludgeon them with Owen, by the way. They also have the best guard in the floor by Longshanj Kovie-Glasby. So great draw for Tennessee of all the six seeds. I think you're like very-- not saying it's a lock, but you're as a ball fan. You feel really good about this draw, frankly. Any other Tennessee takes in terms of either match up there. But I agree with you guys. I think that's an easy pencil and to the round of 32 for me. Yeah. Offensive glass. Scary. I forgot to mention somebody said it. Mine go high, I'll be playing essentially a home game against SMU, which really helps. It's not fun. Yeah. People are clamoring to get into that game. It's going to be an awesome crowd. Yeah. Great. Virginia versus Wright State, we've made fun of the Mount West and the other conference that has had a long, uh, long standing struggle in the So they term it save Greg Campy's magical winning against Kentucky has been the horizon guy and right state has been one of those sort of failed experiments in terms of representing the league and following that on their falling flat on their face largely because they just don't have the jimmies and joes. I think this right state team is hashtag Stort built different but not different enough. They have athletes in size, but it's not I think enough to make me enticed to take the minutes for Jenny who I think is playing really well Young back home for right state. I think Virginia can pressure them as well and kind of cause some disruption there. I think the calves roll and play the who and play the balls And they're around a 32 your thoughts. Yeah, I'll never get over right state losing 73 to 47 against Tennessee in the opening round as a 314 game. Um, it'll stick with me forever. I'm not saying these teams are exactly like I'm just saying Yeah They did play Jen they played two power teams this year right state lost to cow by 10 lost to Butler by 25 And and this Virginia team can blow teams out. I think they kind of speed back right state They can turbo teams size talent Great offense. I think they can get it done Yeah, the offense of rebounding I think shows up in a big way there They have some size with Emory Agbe and Cooper a little bit and Pick it but he's really thin the freshmen kind of more like shop lockers stretchy guy Virginia is gonna take away the rim. It's gonna be really tough to get easy back. It's baskets inside against that team I will mention Matthew. I think I've been maybe at the forefront of ripping the horizon. I think they're 5 and 0 against the spread their last 5 NCA tournament games Dating back to 2022 when right state beat Bryant and then covered against Arizona and again, we thought they get blown out That's right because Northeastern Robert Morris can sell them last year's family. Yeah, yeah, okay. Hey, it's her easy run. Keep it rolling guy I'll get their name out of the out of the muck after okay, I got to respect them that said I don't have a whole lot of excitement for them here I just maybe maybe Virginia's tempo and keeping this game somewhat slow is gonna be helpful for right state Yeah, I think I think the those horizon recent precedents either teams that play zone or teams that are physical like Robert Morris Was last year. I think this ride state team is maybe not that physical but close and that was a big thing that sergeant tried to do Taking over from Nage who had a bunch of skill offensive base teams. He wanted to get more balanced That's why that thing they've kind of prevailed in that lead this year Um All right 710 here I love that we live in a world where Santa Clara is a three-point dog to Kentucky shot at the curb Sunday and What he's done this year and how fun this team is another one where I'm just like yeah, I'm sorry I can talk you but I'm rooting for for her be herbin The brox Kai Did they have a chance here? I'm absolutely into three points. They have a chance But like matchup wise do you see any advantages For Santa Clara who has shot makers? They have talent and they have size one of these SWCC teams that if you look at that conference overall They're always like every team is top 50 in size because you have to compete with St Mary's and Gonzaga So size wise you argue the bigger team is the brox here I think they can hang um Short spread was the first thing I reacted to and actually I saw I touched four and a half I think it's some places and I Should have grabbed it. I am kicking myself I'm still probably gonna take Santa Clara Jim at three and a half they're big they're bad They can go toe-to-toe with Kentucky on size like Matt mentioned Rebounding edge I think they have a decent defense And they're just fun Mahi Hammond graves. It's a really fun team And Kentucky's ball screen defense. It's pretty average and that's kind of Santa Clara's main Function in the half court So I'm leading Santa Clara. It's probably my my heart more than my brain here, but I'm gonna brag back the Broncos Yeah, I lean their way too. I still like just him not overly sold on Kentucky because they go down a lot They go down big a lot against quality competition You can make a real case that the best pro prospect playing in this game is on Santa Clara They pro scouts law down graves and J. N. Quaintance is not playing so I don't know that Kentucky's got a better pro always a better college player for sure But yeah, we love Pope, but there's there's some familiarity going back to the WCC days at BYU I think that maybe helps the underdog a little bit. They're not gonna be blown away now. This is the complete opposite kind of a team that Pope usually has it's not like super offensive built It's a little more defensive athleticism based. I still like Santa Clara man I just think they they competed very well with Gonzaga I thought in that title game. I know they got triple sweat by them But they competed in a lot of those games that beat Gonzaga last year I'm gonna ride with the Broncos as well Matthias Yeah, I have nothing invested here Do we care that Cam Williams came back played a little bit for Kentucky? I think that helps a lot that yeah need the shooting They just didn't have to talk about didn't play a lot, but he did play and I know Kentucky's injuries has been kind of the bug of it sort of Made them a tough riddle to solve all year. I just have had no read on that team like I watch him you guys probably watch them as you game like They looked really good in that one, but you know, they can play up they can play down Yeah, I just it's a tough not to cry. I even can tell you fans probably tell you that too. So good good They've been very good second half. They've been very good second half down the stretch. Pope's been terrific in crunch time. So maybe just can't declare a sort of Kind of hanging on to their their seat belts. They're late All right last game here in the Midwest which I think frankly is a total runaway I mean the spread's 25 points, but like I'm not surprised they got that up two points on the opener from 23 I think it might close 27 iosate against Tennessee state the fighting Nolan Smith's Shout out to my guy Nolan first year. They're a national winning the ovc crown. They have Quote on quote talent Jim by ovc standards, but this is iosate and There's look at what iosate's done to teams in the middling to low end of the spectrum last two three years under odds Some just wild scores and I think if their pressure is like even at like an eight out of ten in terms of intensity and energy Um, this is like a 25 turnover game for Tennessee state Yeah, Tennessee state led the ovc in offensive turnover rate But they're not playing anybody remotely close to killing Torrey Taiman lipsey even Josh Jefferson with his hands in the front court Smith was on the CBS sports show after the selection show and they're like all right What do you do against Joshua Jefferson and it was like Good player got to make him uncomfortable like we do every game like I don't know if he just hadn't prepped yet or if he's trying not to reveal anything He was very laid back in his interview But it did not give me an overt amount of confidence Tennessee state cannot shoot They play a lot of iso ball 331st in assist rate Good luck against the individual defenders of iosate the scheme as well. They've got size at the rim I think this is a runaway two guy where it is a big number. It's only 21 at Ken pome So 25 and a half in the markets telling you how they think of iosate I agree with that movement that i think does it blow out Yeah, I do too and and iosate last year against lipscomb 8255 that's kind of what i'm Expecting in this one they destroy low majors. They've done it for years under oslberger top five defense excellent offense And i'll repeat what you guys said. Yes, Tennessee states athletic. They're talented I don't know how they're gonna score because they can't shoot Ball handing is gonna be a huge issue and they live in the mid-range And i don't think that's gonna cut it against iosate to live in the mid-range They're one of these two the they don't have a true point guard. It's like a lot of like six five six six like athletic wings So like You know kind of positionless, which is great. I like that on paper It but like that's not You can get away with that to your point against ovc caliber pressure. I iosate's just a different animal man It's just totally different Yeah, they score off their defense like steels and iosate takes really good care of the ball um region picks here i'm going Michigan and i'm not really gonna hesitate on that I feel very confident like iosate You know you go back and forth in terms of they struggle at times in the big 12 sort of exposing that They're not always as dominant when they can't exert their energy super power. Kai But i do think they played really good in the big tall tournament kind of need second-guess myself I think the wolf ring is got a nice draw though I think a lot of teams they match well against and i think the kind of close calls Handed teams in their yes, and that too. Injurated teams um Yeah, especially now at the albaamah thing um Yeah, Michigan dusty may final four congrats go blow Made to this is the this is the weakest region. I think um I i think Virginia's the worst three. I think albaamah's probably the worst four text text hurt Tennessee i'm not scared long-term Kentucky not let's not scared. Yeah, Michigan for me Jim over Iowa state jok. I got Virginia over Iowa state and i don't feel good about it But i just i want to trust my virginia instincts there If i had confidence in virginia stepping up in class a little more I'd maybe go bold and pick them but they haven't knocked off like of one or a two seed or anything all year Smash my duke in one game and then shorthand a duke to hang around with but i didn't think that was enough of an indicator to take them over Michigan I will go Michigan over Virginia as well But man Iowa state's interesting. I god if Texas tech was healthy I would pick them to win this region in a heartbeat Just given the five seed that they got anyways. I would pick them. Yeah, I mean every other one seed They just gotta complete the set They have they have the best wins of anyone in the country and it's like not particularly close Pretty crazy. Yep To the south To the south South where ring goes south take a south where Florida could be playing a road game as the one C jam if they advanced to play Houston a storyline. Oh, man, are you are you gonna lead this out? I was gonna take over but you seem like you're in rhythm. I'm dialed with this region, but I don't I don't want to host good. I'll set the stage for you to I'll bump set your spikes. Yeah, Florida's in Tampa. So they get semi home games start but the lurking Houston game. I saw somebody's like we had to play a semi road game against Houston last year in San Antonio and the championship came as like as the championship game relax. Yeah, they weren't going to move that they couldn't alter that location. It wasn't a bad setup. We high preview a and M two teams that are actually playing really well really really highly in momentum per has a metrics obviously because preview a and M is suddenly playing well. Now the only strong take there you are Mr. Swaction. I don't have that. And I'm at least interesting pig. I like preview quite a bit here. I think there it's funny the Patriots three no in playing games. I think the Swack is six and nine facts that don't matter but are interesting for those who think they do. It's both these conferences played on his own and like junky defenses like Swack presses Patriot plays a lot of zone. I think maybe it's just more talented more athletic. They've been really good defensively lately. Kai Byron Smith, a healthier team, Joseph back, Panthers, pride of a hey if they win and then beat Florida, they'll be playing a home game soon. This would be 16 just 30 miles west of Houston. How about that would be a storyline for the ages. Prairie View is a home regional home. My goodness. Oh my gosh. The headlines. I'm on Prairie View. Yeah. Forest turnovers athletic is a match. Pressure. Panthers. The piece. Any any remote chance to one of them hangs within 25 of Florida. So it'll be what 35 30 32. Low 30. Fred Low 30s. Yeah. That's the answer. Yeah. But yeah. That's very likely another blowout. Prairie View. Can they turn Florida over? I don't know. They won't get a rebound. So whatever is the most if you're doing like the everyone, if I get every year, the guys will bet the one verse 16 money line. This is the one I ran the numbers. This is the one where I think there's the closest thing to an edge of the one verse 16 potentials. No edge, but still the best of the options. If you want to do that, I think Florida's just like such a hard team to beat by any team that's not big enough. This might be the Texas Southern UNC like Florida. Yeah. Without rebound them 55 to 19. Like I don't think that's at all outrageous for it to be that much of a blowout on the glass. All right. They could get every single board. So yes, very easily moving into the next round there. Her my eyes. All right. Clemson Iowa Kai. The crawling game. It's been back down in total. I think everybody expects this game to be really, really half court base. Both teams are awesome in transition defense. You don't get out and run against them. Clemson just lost Carter Welling to a tornado. ACL. Pretty hurtful of their high low offense. But I was 313th in paper tiger factor. 337th to wave him home. Like they've got some things going against them too. Problem is I just come back to as much as I respect Brad Vannell and his staff. Ben McCollum and starts in a low possession game. I kind of just lean Iowa there. Yeah. Two solid coaches. I respect two teams. I respect. I have a weird lean to Clemson. It's not sexy. It's a least sexy pick. Maybe that's why I like it. I get there a lot tougher. A hand of the ball well. Just kegans. Iowa. I do love Sturds Matt dictating in March like controlling the game. But Clemson has an excellent one on one defense. They're athletic. They're quick. I think they can hang with Sturds and kind of make him at least a little uncomfortable. I kind of hope this gets to plus three. And I jump on Clemson at plus three. Yeah. These are actually two of the two elite ISO defenses. Iowa, especially big Clemson as well. They have some just built a really good defense plan. I think you saw that even it spots against the elite ACC teams. You know, as you say, that like, yeah, maybe I'm getting to hung up on the Ben McCollum thing as I've been sort of, creating his brilliance all year. But Jim, you're right. They haven't done much. I think they got their big wins against the vulnerable big 10 teams in good spots. Not saying they're a huge paper tiger, but remains to be seen who I trust other than Ben and Sturds to do anything in a high-leverd spot. And that worries me here for a team like Clemson who's much more balanced, even without welling more options, more ways to pick you apart. I picked Iowa. I'm regretting it as I talk through it now, frankly. I just don't know what this one. All right. I'm going to stick with Iowa. I think it's the the sturch shot making. It's going to be the difference there without one more body and welling to beat them up inside the way like Texas tech eviscerated Drake in the paint last year. I think Clemson might not be able to do that the same way. I don't know that either competes with the one seed. Iowa just played with Michigan really well, but I don't expect that to happen against Florida. Jim, can I concern you with the following stat as I was lost three or four down the stretch here? Sorry, four or five. Ben and Sturds, two of seven, four or 14, two of seven, two of nine, two of six from three. I worry that the Iron Man tax that's been put on his legs is starting to show up here. That's my concern. Yeah. Taking a lot of tough shots. I mean, they've lost what is it? Seven of their last 10. Seven last 10 now. Yeah. I'm playing well. Can I jump in real quick? Jim's done to please please please do. I realized we didn't do a home field ad and I think we should do that. I would love to do a home field ad. Yes. Come on in. Home field apparel. You ever heard of it? It's the best collegiate apparel in the game. Go to life. It's not for purpose. Homefieldapparel.com. Shop your school. Get whatever you want. Get everything. Don't use my credit card. I have every single museum gear on earth. People go on a St. Louis this weekend. You're going to see a lot of great teams. I always say it's got great gear. Produce got great gear. Kentucky's got great gear. Eh. Mizzou's got the best gear. Go to HomefieldPenal.com. Use our promo code 3MW at checkout for 15% off. Check out the new hats they just released. They're shooting shirts. Some say the Mizzou shooting shirt is the best shirt ever created. That opinion, but they might be right. That's a home field apparel.com home field wear one for the team. That's right, Kai. That's the hoop society drop. The campus court collection, all those the shooting shirts and the mesh shorts. Those are the big new release there. So this is the perfect time to market home field right after the Clemson Iowa game when it is thrilled and talking about the best game in the first round of the bracket. Let's go. Vandy McNeese. Vandy laying 11 and a half against Bill Armstrong. No longer the will-weight lead cowboys. Pretty much comes down to can Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles take care of the ball. Kai. I think everybody else on that roster is very good about that. Nichols just to catch shoot guy. I'm a gloctin solid in the front court. McNeese needs steals to be successful. I don't think they're quite as creative defensively as last year when they beat Clemson and basically had Clemson buried for most of that game. Just stumped them with their changing defenses. I lean Vandy. I think I'm going to advance Vandy. 11 and a half might be a lot for the lack of athleticism edge that Vandy has. Yeah. I mean, these dangerous, dangerous, very athletic. You mentioned the Clemson game. Yeah, not the same team, but still very, very talented for a 12 seed. They didn't play up much this year. They didn't play a lot of power teams. They got smashed by Michigan, but I don't really care because a lot of good teams got smashed by Michigan. I just think Vandy is a tough matchup for them. First of all, they are underseated as Matt set early. They're closer to a three than a five. Yeah. You do every metric. All the four seeds and it's like they're better. They don't turn them all over. That is very key. McNeese leads the nation in turnover rate. Pretty hard to do that against Vanderbilt. Turn them over. They have to be scrappy. They maybe try to bully them inside Matthew Vrynda built inside. I don't know if it's going to work too well. Kerry Sneaky, big, um, like solid size. McNeese's top five usage guys are all guards. Yeah. So it's not really their thing. It's a big spread though. I don't have a huge lead on the side here. I don't either. I think McNeese is like underseated or just really good for their seed, but it's a bad matchup for them because they can't really exert their uniqueness and advantages as like a pressure havoc teaming. It's Vandy who elite ball handlers comfortable playing in chaos. That's kind of how they play and they play at a high level. Right. So I think Vandy totally shreds us Duke Miles back healthy, Tanner alongside him. I think Vandy takes care of business, but I do respect McNeese's sort of individual scoring bucket getting prowess with like Johnson and Garcia. Like I think they can kind of get some guards buckets of hanging around here in this game. Waves from a spread perspective. So I think Vandy marches on bad draw from McNeese like last year dream draw for easiest saying hindsight for the Will Wade McNeese team Armstrong who seems like comparably good. Not as good the close and similar style crappy draw this year. So tough, uh, tough way of the cards fell there for Bill. Yep. What a great. What a great through their map. Okay, let's go to 413 Nebraska ball hunting for that first NCAA tournament victory in program history. 13 point favorite to do it against the Troy Trojans. Just going to come out and say this right now. This is my favorite first to 15 bet of the first round. Ooh. Because Nebraska gives up a ton of threes and that we got the Campbell bros firing away from deep. The redheads are going to be legends for people that are backing the underdog here. Valdez is a unique kind of player. I have less strong take on the entire game itself. I just think Troy coming out of the gates with some of that shooting over the top again. against Nebraska's high variance defense is a fun first to 15 wager. What do you say about the game as a whole? I agree. I think this is Troy. Ralph the last for this is a slightly less talented version of Troy, but Troy played Kentucky last year, which is a category more talented team than this Nebraska team this year. Kai, you know, Nebraska's a higher seed. Just Nebraska's great because of how they play as a collective. But I mean, crosses as good as a game planner as there is. Interesting synergy nerd alert. It's that here. Troy is very, they're awesome in picking roll. Are the camels or in valve, valve does is like kind of like this fun Swiss army knife, uh, playmaker, six, seven guy. It's the king. Mexican Luca. That's what exactly. Doei, Doei, Val does, I call them. But Nebraska's pick and roll defense has been awesome. I'm not sure I'm not sure I realize that. Is that like legit? It's a week or is that is that schematic driven? You can't do it against them. You can't do it. Right. They just like they wall it off. Yeah. They're so compact like they say good luck. They help off shooters. So like there's, there's no gaps. So all that has to say, I like that my guy Scott Cross has a matchup that's not a team that's way more talented and athletic. So from that angle, I'm hopeful that this game is competitive. Even though I don't think they have a real matchup edge, so to speak. Yeah, I grabbed 14 to half earlier. That was big man. The guy there's a tough squad. They play up. They won at San Diego State. They took USC to three over times when they were healthier. I'm convinced. Yes. They play up. They're a tough team to blow out. Now, I do think I'm very concerned about the Huskers ball screen defense and Matt's right. They play so connected. That's why they were so successful this year. Call it a plums bet, though, Jim. I feel it in my plums. Loon Troy. That Troy covers this game. My plumes, if you will. Yeah. I guess if I like the first to 15 that much and generally don't think they're going to get out classed athletically in this game and not going to get beat up on the defensive glass. There's been a flaw there. There's Nebraska does not go after that. Just make sure you got a hand in price and for its face at the time. Yeah. Get out and get out on price. Come on. Yep. Okay. UNC, VCU in the 6/11 matchup here. Carolina. Linus two in the market right now. I think I forgot to mention earlier that Slu is dead last in momentum in the country. But UNC is dead last in the away from home ranking. There are 364th. Excuse me. Also 350th in momentum. The team is not playing well. You're kind of taking a swing on is this version actually good without Kale Wilson. I'm not sure it is. Meanwhile, Matthew VCU has 117 of 18 and his sixth and consistency. I really like the Rams. I love the talent level they've got. The current version of them. I think Hill can tear up the drop coverage. Let him fire away off the bounce. I like to match up. I like the scenario. Give me VCU. I kind of like UNC. And I've been I've been frustratingly low on VCU all year. They've continued to kind of like now we're pretty good. No, we're good. Like beddating big against them. I but I the UNC games basically home game. I can South Carolina. I guess but like they should be one of those. I think the home crowd might actually matter here. I mean, VCU though outside of the Seaguller are not as dominant either against elite teams. A little bit less proven. I don't know. Kai, I like UNC here. I just got tells me I feel like they play up here. But match up wise, I don't want to say huge edge either way. Frankly, and no cable bulls like that's kind of confirmed at this point. Right. We're not going to know. Oh, he's out for the air. Broke. He's done. Yeah. He's done. I is. Lines kind of short. That's what I said too. I thought I'd say that for sure. Shouldn't size talent. I don't know. If you see they beat Virginia Tech, they hung with Utah State with Mexico. With a state. They got blown up by Vandy. I'm not going to hurt him too much. I suppose for that one. Targets play well without failing. That's that's key for BCU's offense getting to the foul line. I think Martelli's probably the coaching edge for me. There's no offense to he or Davis. I know you have a championship game appearance. I'm aware. I lean you and see though. I think it's too short. I think it's gone a bridge too far. Wow, you guys are going to regret it. I guess this maybe this is similar last year when I think there's a big VCU groundswell against BYU. And then BYU kind of handled them in the first round. You spread the fight. I think it was like one and a half or two. Way worse spot. VCU was going across country though. That was actually just a I forgive VCU for that game. I think VCU is in a much better position here. But I'm with Kai. Just got it says like, yeah, I think UNC is still kind of good. Yeah, obviously very different VCU team too. New coach. Yeah. A lot of new pieces. So not going to just make that a carbon copy of last year. All right, let's go to Illinois versus Penn. The 314 game here, can TJ power go for 50 in this game? He might need to. My gosh. Illinois minus 24 and a half here. Kai, do you know the last last time a frame of referee team was better on defense than on offense like this. Penn team is I don't. It was 2013 all the way back at Iowa. It has been almost a decade and a half. Penn is awful in the paint. 346, 292nd and 2. Percentage offense and defense. Illinois 18 to 44th. And that's not even adjusted for schedule. Underwood Wamp's bad teams. Why isn't this in Illinois runaway? I still can't believe Pimbee. Yael it was basically TJ power and then a really, really, really bad coaching by James Jones waiting the game. I mean, I don't know what you're doing. You let him get the ball. You don't fail him for a mental pressure. I don't make a sense. Change directions even once. Even Ivy League guys can be stupid. I suppose sometimes no. Ethan Robert still for Penn is a huge deal for me against a much, much better team. I don't think they can possibly survive. I will say friend knows Illinois. He's he's coached against Brad under what a time or two. But his teams will be spraying and praying from deep Illinois. Plenty of big bodies to throw on power. Plenty of bodies to throw on him. I don't think he's going to have near the game. He'd put you head against Yale. I don't know how Penn stops them that. I really don't. No, Penn will not stop them. That much time certain. It's funny that we have Illinois and Nebraska. The two big 10 teams that kind of are kind of step brothers in style and vulnerable in the same way. But so again, I think good for Florida, frankly, and good for teams playing against them. I think they have upset risk. But just this draw like versus any other 14 seed like North Dakota state or Kennesau state and even a right state. I would be a little more like, ah, but no, I just think this is a men versus boys situation. Even a power goes for 45. But I just want to note that I feel like Illinois and Nebraska those two teams that because of how they defend, they're not super athletic, but they are long. They will give you three as if you can get hot. I think you have a chance to at least compete. But man, the gap in town here is enormous. I just don't think even with like a power Messiah out of body experiences games can be that close. Yeah, especially for Alberts is still out. And is that confirmed? And he's got the concussion symptoms. That's he didn't even travel. It's not confirmed. I don't know. Questionable. Yeah, I wouldn't expect him. It's a Thursday game. So it's only a three day turnaround from not even traveling to the Ivy tournament. That's not great. He's going to try to practice. I feel like that's a violation of the protocol. Are you supposed to like do it the past? You a test on the protocol for you. Yeah. But yeah, Illinois just has drilled in figure competition most of the season. Basically Colgate and UTRGV accepted. They've taken those teams out. Penn played Villanova the only top 50 team. They played all year. They lost by 27. I don't like that. Okay. Two more games. St. Mary's Texas A&M. Matthew, forgive me if I am having deja vu here. But St. Mary's laying three and a half to an SEC team with a first year coach to play as a little unconventionally. Is that not exactly what happened against Vandy last year? And St. Mary's was able to squeak that one out in a low scoring game. I think they won by four and covered also. Is that going to happen again here? I see a couple little matchup edges on either side, Matt. I'm going to see which one you focus on. Okay. That's funny. You, uh, I missed you led me to the wrong oasis because I was going to mention the fact that Vandy this year, too, Vandy snuck inside the number last year. But this year they played Vandy St. Mary's and Vandy eviscerated St. Mary's in the Bahamas. And obviously, I think Vandy team St. Mary's guards are still cleaning their pants from what happened. Right. But that's my word. I just don't think the St. Mary's back where his awesomeness Josh sentence been like, I mean, I can't believe how good Josh tends to spend the season. He's totally like without him. They're not anywhere near this point of just any, you know, ranking or metric or just in the content from the tournament. I don't know if he's seen the pressure that he's going to probably see with A&M. Now, I think there's some kind of misconceptions with those these teams. A&M has a couple like big bodies up front where they actually can hold their own inside. I mean, St. Mary's will have an edge in that way, but I think, you know, with AG such a physical force kind of like the hard soul of that team, I think he actually is a good neutralizing. And I was the A&M's half-quart offense has been pretty good. Like Bucky runs good stuff. They don't need to get transition threes or off seals to score. They actually can score just, you know, running some sets and playing kind of in continuity stuff. I like A&M here. I don't believe I wound up on that island guy, but I kind of like A&M in this matchup. I like him a lot. And I'm kind of afraid of surprise St. Mary's is favored. I understand Kim Pum, but I don't think they can handle the pressure at all. I think they're going to craft their pants again. Like Vandy did. It's a big juxtaposition style. I'm very excited to watch this. If you struggle with turnovers and you see pressure all game against A&M, I watch they did Auburn and other teams in the SEC. That's scary. The girls clearly have an edge inside, but I agree. Rajeshan AG is big. They have big guys and they've played bigger teams in same areas in the SEC. It's not like this is their first game seeing size or physicality. Yeah, I like A&M. I'll be betting them three, three and a half. Yeah, I think the like McEver Westle's Moralskis frontline will give them trouble. The SEC didn't have that many of those, but like they almost won at Tennessee and they got out rebounded 60 to 35. Like they can still win even if they're getting smashed on the boards because they're probably going to win the turnover margin. They're going to shoot a lot of threes, keep it somewhat high variance. They didn't even shoot the lights out in that Tennessee game and they were still there. As pointed out by, I believe it was Fatty Mann in the Discord, a St. Mary's fan. They have been very bad away from home. 359th per Haslometrics. They got bears the other time they played SEC athleticism against Fandy. But Texas A&M is way low in momentum. They are not playing that well. And 321st in paper tiger factor where they've been better against Worsh competition. This one has pulled me in multiple directions. I think ultimately I'm just going to side with the line and take A&M 3.5. Like if this is 2.5, I might even take St. Mary's, but over possession, I don't think I'm willing to lay that. I laid 3.5 last year against Fandy and I came up short I think by the half point in that one. So it's a tricky game. Tricky game. I always shout to see a stylistic clash. Yeah, he that's I said it's the most fascinating like, Jack or the black and white difference in terms of style, clashing style St. Mary's, Per synergy, nerd alert. Like very good against press, like they're pressing offense has been very good. I'm trying to kind of parse through who they played and when they played them. That feels it wasn't good against Fandy. I watched that game. That's right. 17-0 run early. It was like, uh, and it was shell shocky and I know the dense way better now than he was then and maybe that helps, but still I think A&M can replicate some of that discomfort. That we saw in the Vandy game. Yep. All right, let's finish it out Houston and Idaho in the 215 game. Idaho the sneaky run through the big sky. I don't know if I love them here against a hyper physical very experienced veteran Houston team. Kai is can Idaho the vandal stand up to the physicality they're getting 23 and a half at last a check before the show, but match up or spread type stuff. What do you see him? Yeah, you know, I kind of lean towards Idaho on the spread. Top five defensive revenge team in the country. And I would hate the world not to know Brody Robbery. He's a unique snow monster of a person. They're not super small. They kind of handle the ball. Both important things. I met a smile when I said I kind of like Idaho. I do worry how Houston can decimate teams. Like it could be like an 83 38 type of game where he's and just says no closes the door. But if it keeps ticking up, he's gonna keep taking money. I'll consider a little a little bit of Idaho. So Alex Pribble is an awesome coach. I think you'll when you turn on the TV and you watch this, you see Idaho for the first time. Just not to get off the bus team. They are not. And I love them. And again, great coach. It is very much a big sky basketball team. And it's funny. Like this is the one version of Houston last six or so years where I'm like, maybe Houston gets a little too cute and take some tough shots. And they kind of, you know, mess around. Like this is Houston. The old like, you know, dominant interior Houston team. I think Houston wins by 50 with 100% certainty. This year, I feel like they won by 50 with like a 75 degree percent of confidence. That's where I match him. So very strong conviction, but not all the way. Yeah, I think I lean Houston. I don't know. Idaho can play a little bit with the physicality because of Robbery. He's so big that I bet he's gonna foul out in like 16 minutes or something. I think he's gonna struggle to stay on the court. Idaho fouls a ton. And interestingly, Kai Idaho number five nationally and defensive rebound rate. They're number four in the big sky. They weren't even like that good. Right. Look at their nod count. They put a lot of like just terrible. Reboundings in deceptive stats. So it's turnovers. Because it's not rate adjusted. Exactly. It's not opponent adjusted. Very soon. Yeah. Big Sky isn't quite like Mountain West, but I do think of I typically want to lean towards fading them. The elevation teams when they get to no elevation advantage in tournament. This game is being played in Oklahoma City. That's not a super edge or anything. Lean Houston. Let's do region picks. Fellas. We've got Florida. Got Houston. Illinois. Nebraska. Vandy. What do you think in Kai? Lead off with you. All right. You can lead off with me, Jim. By the way, Carson Tout. Best rebounder in the country. 15 rebounds against Idaho. And the game they played against him. You love Carson Tout. I wouldn't say that. I've seen him shoot a free throw. So I don't know how you can love him and watch that. Okay. This region, Jim. Had a hard time between Florida and Houston. I choose Houston every year. I'm going to choose Houston again. Houston over Florida. Get on board. Matthew, I'm taking Houston to home court advantage revenge from the national title game. I think they can pressure Florida's guards a little bit too much. It's going to be tough. I do have the Gators getting there, though. I think they get some nice, much needed revenge on Vandy after Vandy. Spanked them in Nashville. My mixed mistake I'm making is not learning from my past mistakes, which is teams that can't shoot. Like, there's nothing worse than knowing that you're putting your chips on teams that can't shoot. Then they're just breaking shot. Like St. John's last year. Yeah. Yeah. With this year. Florida, like, frankly, like, I know they got a little hotter when they got a hot lay, but like, still those guards. I would love to play on that team. With just the open shot you get and they still don't shoot. You're just a shoot. Desperately hoping that Clav's are the ones shooting. At all times. Just someone make a fucking shot. It's like, cool. So yeah, I worry, like they play Clemson Round 2 or I will Round 2. They're just like Pac-Line and they're 10 of 40 from three or something. But no, I'm going to have Florida. I just momentum is real. Depth is real. I still believe in there's no way stubbornly that we and other Arkansas guard who I'm liking right now. Florida Claves are or Brown even are going to just be ice cold. But again, that's a, that has got me in trouble before. I'm taking Florida all that said. And I think they went a row game against Houston in the U.S. Which is a huge. Okay. There you have it. All right. Let's do quick national title picks then. I believe my final four was St. John's Houston. Then the one seeds Arizona and me again. I am going to take Arizona over Houston in a rematch of the Big 12 title game. Poor Houston comes up short again in the national title stage. Kai, what do you got? Yeah, I do Michigan, Houston and what Arizona in the final four. Michigan overdue. Like everyone thinks revenge from the game in DC. I like. Yeah. Now Florida over St. John's. We're going back to back. He says he said he didn't learn his mistakes in Michigan over Arizona. And then Dusty may cuts down the mats because he's the best coach in college basketball and Indiana should hardly. Here we go. That's all we have here from tonight's program. Kai, do we want to recap anybody's favorite bats? I'm going to just one more time call out my favorite first 15s. Yeah, go for Nebraska. No, it's a good state over Michigan state. And I do think UMBC or Howard are worth a stab at hopefully you get like five to one or something against that Michigan juggernaut maybe even more than that. Because those teams are bad and Michigan is incredible. But I think that could be, you know, what's that? 12 and then they lose by 30. What price in that is you make. I was hoping like six to one. I don't know. Like some of them you got in like, also for 50. They have noticeably ticked down as the public has been more prone to betting them. You get way less value on the dogs. But they're still fun for me. And I'm betting those more for fun and hope of a celebration that I am for. Well, my expected value on this bed is incredible. So I don't have that. Kai. Well, any like any favorite way to. We don't have to try to like best bets from the from the round bracket. How do you take? Yeah, I had had underseated Vandy underseated. Yeah, I do like Northern Iowa and and Troy for the bigger medium dogs. I hate to say Mizzou, but I did take Mizzou a two and a half. I think that's a strong bet. Like UMBC in the in the opener. Mitch Nane. Yeah. I hope all those don't lose. That'd be horrible. That'd be very disappointing. Yeah, Troy. I like a lot as it's kind of mentioned. I actually really like TCU. I know it's in the face of my Ohio State brethren here. I think it's the first game of the day on Thursday. So old Jimbo probably starts on one as per every single NCAA tournament. That's the way it goes. I hope we get to Wisconsin Arkansas games. So I can bet Wisconsin. Purdue blow out Queens or at least scored over their team total. And anything else that really really stood out to me. I don't know Matthew. Northern Iowa. I think the storyline to me general storyline take is the the one-seed dominance. But like if you really dig in it's like okay. Duke a little bit. Sure handed Michigan without Kason. There's enough. There's enough like for hope. For right. It's for hope if you are I don't know. I guess you're rooting hard against the one states. like the ones who like the Darth Vader quartet or whatever. I don't know but they are Clearly, I think the probably the strongest relative to field top 4 stage we've seen in a while. But there is like, he pulled back. I do it as you can get to some flaws there. I would love a lot of upsets because I'm really tired of the narrative that March Madness is done, Cinderella is done after one year sample size. It drives me crazy. I understand how that's the disparity. I know what that's the disparity. You know what? St. Peter's 20 point dogs like four straight games. They're still it's going to happen. The people say the narrative is going to be like there's no good teams anymore after 2024. It was like the last year. I mean, FAU. The good teams were always advancing. It's about the first and second round where I worry we're going to lose. That's been the case for years. That's my concern is we lose. Like there's like no first round upsets or fun things. Then the first two rounds are just like blonde and yeah, the second rounds are going to be awesome. And like more awesome. Great. But like the first rounds got to be fun too. That's what I'm worried about. I think it's fun. Just on sweet 16 or lead eight long shots. South Florida is one I really like. I think they've got a chance to do it. They're talented. I agree. Same region UCLA low tempo game against Yukon in the second round. If they get there, I have the best player in the floor. Potentially in dent. I don't mind that. I could see Troy doing it with Nebraska and Vandy. I don't think that's impossible. The way they played up. And then I like Hofstra a lot against Bama and Texas Tech doesn't have toppings. So maybe Hofstra's when I should throw a dart at. What do you got man? No, my so on my watch list of concern is Troy South Florida. And I'm one other school mid major whose coaches are more than likely going to not be coached their next year. I mean, he had grosses in the mix for a couple of jobs. And Akron too. Good call coaches who are probably taking a few late-night phone calls leading up to the tournament. Travis still. Travis steel maybe too. It's just like that's tough. We'll see. Yep. That doesn't. A little distracting potentially from the task at hand. Fran McCaffrey ain't going anywhere though. He's going to be a pen. He's going to be on the. He's on the. He's on the. He's on the. 15 15. He's got a film. By the way, third coach third coach never do that. Committee did a good job this year. It was the easiest bracket to predict. I think everyone's kind of. S in their own D about how good their bracket prediction was. Everybody was good this year. Yeah, I tweeted I got 68 and I was very excited. I was like yeah, everybody's going to get 68 out of 68 this year. Well, Nardi might have won the bracket. He did really well. Yeah, he did really really well. Again, conspiracy. I think he gets a little inside of me, but. All right. That's it folks. We got through a whole lot. We coded for over two hours as promised. So hopefully that's the fill for the people listening on your flight out to Las Vegas or. You know, getting amped up for the games on Thursday. We appreciate you tuning into this. If you were here alive in the chat, we love that. If not, maybe tune next time. We don't know exactly one little record next week. It's tricky with trying to do it Friday morning. That's in between rounds. We don't want to we don't want to do that. So we'll keep you posted with that. I'll be the only weaver in Vegas this year. Sad for how Nardi here runs down the face. Hopefully get these guys back next year. That's it. Thank you for tuning in. Hope to break down is what you were hoping for as you tuned in. Enjoy the madness. Clear. Woo. [Music] [Music]