Pete Oversett hosts a live Best Ball Breakfast draft on his YouTube channel, featuring a solo draft followed by guest appearances from Mark Dank, Sam Sherman, and Pat Karein. The episode centers on a detailed fantasy football draft strategy, where Pete builds a team with two quarterbacks—Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff—alongside five running backs, including Kyron Williams, Cam Scatabo, Ramondra Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, and Aaron Jones. A key focus is the Vikings backfield, with analysis of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones as potential goal-line threats, despite their high ADPs, due to increased offensive opportunities following Kyler Murray’s arrival. Pete and guest Mark Dank discuss the value of these players, emphasizing that both could thrive in a dynamic offense with a 50/50 split, especially if a third back like Demon Clayborne red-shirts. The draft also features a mix of wide receivers, including Aman Ross, Drake London, Christian Watson, and Taekwan Thornton, with a deliberate inclusion of a rookie (Pat Bryant) to meet BBM’s rookie requirement. The team is balanced across positions, with three tight ends (Breton Strange, TJ Hawkinson, Gunner Helm) added for depth. Pete reflects on the draft’s strategy, noting that while early picks are risky, the team shows strong projectability and late-season upside. He also highlights the use of the Solver’s combinatorial tool to analyze player pairings and team correlations, and promotes the Solver’s draft report feature for team evaluation. The episode concludes with a look at future content, including the return of the randomizer and the upcoming AfterDark series with guest appearances from Tony Squares and PPR Tyler. The team is built with a mix of value, risk, and consistency, reflecting Pete’s belief in smart, flexible drafting over overreliance on high-upside swings.
>> Best ball breakfast is loading for straight hours of best ball mania drafts here on the Pete Oversett YouTube channel. I'll kick things off with a solo draft. Then we're going to have guest Mark Dank from ETR. He's been the man behind the projections. He's doing the projections pod with Jack Miller and Ben Gretz. This year, he's going to be subbing in for Adam Levitan today. We will, of course, have Sam Sherman, the defending BBM champ on at noon. And then as always, my trusty sidekick, Mr. Pat Karein and his sidekick, joining us around one PM Eastern. I'm Pete. This is Best Ball Breakfast. Let's do it. >> Welcome to Hot Best Ball Summer. >> You slurped that suspension, Dipperino, honey. >> Easy to click on Richard White's when it's all site credits. >> Exodia. >> Hit the puppy in the bag, bro. >> Try to grow the cock game game. >> The game is beatable, folks. >> Slap king, summer bitches. >> 7,000 hours of commercial free best ball drafts. It starts now. >> GMs, GMs, how are we doing? Everybody, what is up? Nick, smooth criminal. Good, Greg with the what up, what up, what up? GM, GM, to you, Josh, to Steven. Greg is loading up the Nitro cold brew and gearing up from some hot yoga, dude. That sounds like my kind of morning right there. I did have some cold brew already, but of course, I have my trusty pot of coffee here. So let's get this roll in here on best ball breakfast, the first of a few coffee pours today. There we go. Ready to rock. Now that we get the coffee going, what's up, Chris? Groovy Greg, excited for the pour. Best part of waking up is a BB coffee pour in your cup. That's right, Fulgers. We're coming for your slogan, for your jingle. What's up, Lizzie? Is this a Vancouver Grizzly's jersey? It isn't a mosh to that. This is my friends, the no-dunk screw. Jay Skeets, Trey Kirby, Toss Melis, all of those guys over there. They did a limited edition run, so yeah, I had to grab one of these when those came out. Love the old school Grizzly uniform. What is up, Ryan? How are we doing here, Jake? Always encouraging me to draft my running backs early. I'll see what I can do for you today, Jake. What's up, Purple Yosh? I did see that you were streaming with Chad Candles this morning, the eliminator defending champ, love to see it. Davis needs to get back from vacation and start grinding with the rest of us. I know, man, life of leisure, Maddick, who knows if he's ever going to return? Us real best ball brost. Continue to grind out here. What's up, Chad, fantasy pill? Trusty or sidekick? Coffee pot or Pat Karein, man, that's a good question. You know what has to be Karein? Because ultimately, my coffee pot, it runs empty. And there's nothing left in it. But Pat Karein, he is eternal. He shows up week after week here. Raylish GM from the beach side in Brazil. That sounds nice. That sounds nice. GM's from Cali. Look at everybody calling in from all over the world today. Best ball on call says GMP. So you think you can tout best show of the summer? I appreciate that. Hopefully you guys all had the chance to check out the show on Friday that involved guest, Davis Maddick helping me judge the final five after streaming week. And then it was a bit of a surprise. Obviously, the cats out of the bag now. Pat Karein did join me there at the end to help me make some of my final decisions there. A lot of people who have been fans of this channel of ship chasing over the years really enjoyed that episode. It was kind of a change of pace from some of the previous episodes. The contest has certainly changed in the objective. As I know, I'm looking to find and in pick a collaborator to work with here, going forward. So hopefully you guys get to check that out and joy that episode. Really proud of how that turned out. And yes, we are down to the final three. For so you think you can tout. There is only one more episode, the finale. And in addition to those guys pitching me on their idea of a show to do with me, which will be part of the finale. I'm hosting them on AfterDark this week. I actually had cups on Saturday night. We're going to have Tony Squares. Will join me on a Wednesday edition of AfterDark at 8 p.m. Eastern. And then PPR Tyler will join me Friday night, 8 p.m. Eastern. And this part, I have yet to mention anywhere. So here's the announcement. The randomizer is coming back this Thursday. And we are kicking it off with the three touts. So we're going to go back to back to back. I need to check the exact order. But we will have squares, we will have cups. And we will have PPR Tyler all getting thrown into the randomizer gauntlet. PPR Tyler actually did the randomizer last year. So this will be his second time, but first time for cups and squares. So that will be another fun element to this kind of finale week here, as we also work behind the scenes to pull together this episode. But I think it is time for us to do what we do best around here on Bestball Breakfast. And that is draft, a Bestball Mania team. Let's get the draft up here. And let's get Rowan folks. All right, I tipped you guys off in the discord. If you guys are in the Bestball Breakfast Channel there, hopefully you get a jump on the crowd to get into one of these drafts. We got the 107 here. 107, let me go ahead and update my exposures as well. I mean, we are now getting to the point where this is my 88 Bestball Mania draft. My Des Bryant draft, if you will, there's been a lot of great number 88s over the years. I always think a Demarious Thomas is well from that same draft class, Rest in Peace Demarious Thomas, but 88, I think the goaded wide receiver number, just aesthetically so appealing on the jersey there in my 88th draft. But let me sink my exposures here. I also need to name this draft. I can't have a team that's not named. This was from last week, I believe it was on 7-16. This was a fantasy life draft I did, and I think I had the zero RB draft we did. Make sure you guys are checking out those shows over on the fantasy life channel. I'm now doing three shows a week over there, one with a guest, one with someone from the fantasy life universe. You know, Dwayne McFarlane has been swinging by to go through his tears, and then on Friday I draft with Kendall. And this week, today we're actually recording with Zane, you guys know him from Twitter. He's been absolutely crushing the news in Nuggets beat when it comes to fantasy football. So we're going to go through some training camp news with him. You can find all of that on the fantasy life show YouTube channel. And I am about to pick here at one seven. We have a pretty familiar start here, the two running backs, the three wide receivers. We'll see what Chad does here. And then looking at my exposures, I'm at Jonathan Taylor, 10 and a half percent. Aman Ross, the guy I want to keep boosting here, I'm only 3.9% Aman raw. He is next in ADP here. That was not an intentional fade. That's been kind of just part of the RNG with my draft slot. So we'll continue to click Aman raw right there at ADP and maybe even mixing him in a bit more than that, just to make sure I'm not grossly underweight on one of the better wide receivers in round one. Oh no, Paul's tapping in says he has a two year old screaming on a two hour drive. Oh man, I have been there brother. Can you try a snack? Can you try a snack there? Blast some miss Rachel, some super simple songs might get the might do the job there best of luck. GM's GM's what's up garage? I like this comp from Nick as far as this most recent episode, it was as close as we could get to a meet the family episode of reality show. Yeah, what is it on the bachelor when they, when they take him home to meet their family? That's a funny comp. All right, Aman raw here. We see all the running backs come off the board. Then AJ Brown, I'm on the clock here. Looking at, I have paired Aman raw with Derek Henry 42.9% of the time. I have yet to pair him with Drake London. Let's do that. Let's do an Aman raw Drake London. I'm starting to get more and more comfortable with some of the later running back values on the board, even in round four and five. I feel like those pockets, especially from the middle part of the board are now coming into focus. You know, Jacob, Scatebo, middle of round four, although we can talk about the backflip situation, middle of round five, you're routinely getting Tutan Henderson there. So let's start wide receiver, wide receiver, a combo. I have not yet done in Best Balmania with Aman raw St. Brown in Drake London. And as always, you can see here, I'm getting that information about my combinatorial ownership via the Salver's combo tool here. Not only can I see my individual exposures, but I can now click Aman raw and see next to him what my pair is specifically with Aman raw. And so as I was able to notice, I am often clicking Derek Henry with him. Let's go ahead and get a share of Drake London. It's just a really nice way to make sure you're not getting funneled to the same combos, you know, unintentionally over and over again. Aaron Kenny. Yeah. No, we already covered the Jersey. It is not an Abdul Rahim Jersey. It is a generic no dunks, Jersey, no player on this one. Who else would be a good one? Was it a big man Reeves country Reeves? Am I now misremembering his nickname there?
Oh, yeah, Jake's always worried about my running back points and I started with Aminrod Drake. I guess I already forgot about my running back points. Sorry, brother. Sorry to hear that. All right, Aminrod Drake London here. Crystal Lave, Zae Flowers hanging around by ADP. Crystal Lave is the faller here. I am light. Crystal Lave, Kyron is a guy that I could also take in this range. Let's go ahead and do Kyron. I do not have a lot of Kyron, only 5.3%. I want Jake to be able to relax in the chat. I know how he gets a little on edge, a little nervous for me when I don't have a running back here. I kind of don't know what to do with Lave these days. I think he's a solid pick. I do think there's a decent amount of risk that Jordan Tyson is really, really good. And these ADPs almost look silly. By the time we get to week 15, 16, 17, when you think of how good Jordan Tyson was as a prospect, would it not be insane to think that at this time next year we're drafting Jordan Tyson in the middle of the third round and we're drafting Crystal Lave in the sixth round? That's just kind of how I feel in my gut that it's going to play out. And it's not to say that a Lave doesn't have a place on teams. I think he's going to be very solid. But man, I just can't shake the specter, the looming figure that is Jordan Tyson hovering over Crystal Lave's shoulder. Every time I see his name there. Travis ETN is another guy that's now routinely sliding after Camara restructured his contract. One of those weird elements where we should have known all along. Probably that Camara was going to end up staying in New Orleans. It was either that or retiring. And yet the underdog market is always going to double count it. So if we thought it was baked in, it might have been objectively like thinking about true projections and where ETN should be going. But the market did not bake it in. And now Travis ETN routinely falling to early round four. And I'm certainly more open to taking ETN in this range. You know, once a Javante is off the board, I think it starts to become an interesting conversation. Him versus Jacob's, him versus Scatabo. The draft or next to me does grab Jacob's here. Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams, Malik neighbors. Garrett Wilson is who the solver likes. I do have a ton of Garrett Wilson. Let's do Scatabo for the lulls. Let's do a backflip and take Cam Scatabo here. So if you guys missed it over the weekend, he was at Fanatics Fest and attempted another backflip, which is kind of his favorite party trick right now. And he kind of stumbled how to awkward landing. Everyone gasped. We're all on pins and needles with Cam Scatabo because part of the reason that makes us also scared about Scatabo is just the injury risk. Can this guy take care of his body? I don't think we should be adjusting the ranks because Cam Scatabo enjoys doing backflips, but it is a fun conversation. He might not be the smartest individual. But let me tell you, a lot of these players we draft in fantasy aren't the sharpest tools in the shed. So I'm going to go ahead and cut Cam Scatabo some slack. To me, Cam Scatabo represents one of the few players in a typical dead zone range of the draft that doesn't have a dead zone profile. He does the things that aren't dead zoning. He's really good at the goal line and he catches passes. And so yes, there's certainly risk there if you want to play the health card. But I do think he's going to do the things for fantasy that we really like. And again, I don't think it would be shocking if Cam Scatabo stays healthy for an entire season that we're drafting him up here, where chase Brown's going, where AJ Brown's going, et cetera. See, and this is, yeah, this is the one conversation whenever it comes to Scatabo, any chance he's healthy all season. I just don't want to be in that game of trying to predict who's going to be healthy, who's not. I think all of these running backs who are going to see a ton of touches are liable to get injured. And so I think it's just being a little too precise to say I know Cam Scatabo's going to get injured, but Javante Williams isn't. I know Cam Scatabo's going to get injured, but Josh Jacobs isn't. So I don't know. I'm not personally going to play that game. I understand why there are concerns there, but not for me. So we have Kyron and Scatabo. We have Almond Ron Drake London. This is kind of between like Tutan and Christian Watson for me. I do really like Christian Watson. Let's play Watson here. And we will see if maybe one of these running backs come back. I've been really trying to think through like the differences between Jadarian Price, relative to Quinchon Judkins and Tutan. And I put Tutan on the thumbnail today. I feel like he's one of the hottest topics in fantasy right now. I'll certainly talk with him to our guests today. But yeah, I still like Tutan. I think it's a really tricky price right now. And I do think the gap between him and Rodriguez is still pretty crazy. Basel Tutan 56.1, Chris Rodriguez 127.2, a 70 pick gap between these two. And maybe the price is fair for Basel Tutan. But man, I don't think it's probably right for Rodriguez with everything they're telling us about this being a 1A1B type of situation. That's right, 952 stew says they say that the same thing for Watson. Will he stay healthy? Certainly. Yes, I think every single player I draft, we can ask that same question there. Jordan Tyson coming back to me at 65 would have been nice. Oh man, the solver suggesting Parker Washington. I actually drafted Parker Washington on the bash the other day. My guest fantasy pill encouraged me to draft him. I'm going to go ahead and take Ramandre Stevenson here. This is a reach ahead of ADP. He's been a guy that I've been wanting to kind of boost my exposure to. I feel like Stevenson's floor is really solid right now. And I actually think the ceiling is pretty high. It feels like it could be a small miss big hit, especially if we run back essentially the same split that we had last year with Henderson. In all indications, all reporting right now is like, yeah, we're running it back. And if anything, this offense is going to be better this year, more goal line opportunities. I want to be investing in the Patriots offense. And so Stevenson is someone I've been now willing to mix in specifically in this spot where typically the board gets flat in round six. I'm not in love with any of the wide receivers. I like Tyson. I like Jane Daniels. I like Jadarian Price in this range. After that, if I don't have a really obvious stack, which I don't with Aminrod, Drake, London, and Christian Watson, then it's kind of choose your own adventure. And I do prefer Stevenson to Paula right now. I just think when I look at which one of those offenses do I want to invest in, Ramondra in the Patriots get the nod for me. Uh-oh, the biweek bros are out. What am I doing with week 11 here? Kyron, Ramondra, Drake, London, and Christian Watson. OK, all right, we're officially on biweek alert. Officially on biweek alert. Jake says Ramondra is the best pick in drafts. Wow, you know, I think I'm getting pretty bullish on Ramondra. I don't even know if I can go that far, the best pick in drafts. It is hard for a top 70 pick to be the best pick in drafts. I think it's always a little bit easier to find maybe massively mispriced guys later in the draft. But I would be open to putting him in that top five, top 10 players that I think are undervalued. Whatever happened to the guy who drafted everyone with the same biweek a few years ago. That actually has been a popular strategy and weekly winners. I know people would do that where it's just like, let me take the L on this one week and then have a full roster the rest of the week. But typically, you're just going to be sacrificing too much value going out of your way to draft players with the same biweek. All right, we're back on the clock here. Solver likes Chuba. This is right at about value for Chuba here. Rank of 68 80 p of 76 were at pick 79 by week five. So this is kind of like an interesting build for me in that I still get three wide receivers through five rounds. But we're back up to four running backs. Are you a P's Jake? Did I get enough running back points for you here? Certainly kind of a weird grouping of running backs as far as my personal tastes and who I generally like drafting. Kyron Williams, Cam Skatabo, Ramondrey Stevenson and Chuba. And then pair them with Omenrod Drake, London, Christian Watson. But with these guys, Stafford, Jackson, Dart, obviously, Bryce Young, late, Jared Goff will not mess with Atlanta right now. Jordan Love. I feel like I have enough late round quarterback options here that we kind of keep stacking running backs and wide receivers and see how this shakes out. Go easy cards. Pete, did you show us your front runner? And so you think you can tell with who was on AfterDark? No, because I am doing AfterDark's will all three of the guests. I mentioned that at the top of the show cups was on Saturday. Tony Squares is on Wednesday. PPR Tyler is on Friday. I'm doing an AfterDark with all three of the finalists. Jim, these are Jim says I'm getting comfortable with some of these later RB's proceeds to rip through seven. Maybe I misspoke, but these are the running backs I need. I said literally the round four and round five, six running backs. These are the guys that I
I now, you get Chuba sliding a little bit. I did reach for Remondre there, but the Scatabo price, these are the guys that I like building around in the middle rounds right now, while making sure I have enough offensive firepower up top. Let me try a move here that I've been saying I wanna do a little bit more. I keep saying it and then I never do it. Let's do naked Trevor Lawrence. You know, in hindsight, do you go back and put Parker Washington on this team because I end up getting Lawrence, but one of the things we've been talking through with how tricky the prices are for the Jags wide receivers is isn't Trevor Lawrence just the big winner here? Isn't Lawrence the guy you want? That almost no matter what happens, if there's an injury to Parker Washington, Brian Thomas or Jacobi Myers. Well, guess what? Now you get the second overall pick in the draft, stepping up and playing more time. You know, they add a couple tight ends, they have Breton Strange. This is a very resilient team in their pass catching core. Trevor Lawrence is set up for massive success this year and I think I've been ignoring him a little too much from that angle of just being willing to take Trevor Lawrence even when I don't have one of those first two Jags wide receivers. And if you miss out on Hunter, on Strange, whatever, not a big deal because you can play Lawrence as a naked quarterback, he's gonna rush a bit as well. But yeah, I want to entertain this Lawrence price. Five picks past ADP, knowing how well positioned he is. And I do think there are scenarios where all of the Jags wide receivers could be small misses at ADP because it is so spread out because you have the games where the running games cooking, you have the games where Trevor Lawrence is scoring two rushing touchdowns. Like all of that is within the range here. And I want to make sure that I have some Lawrence. So we could do Jacobi here, JK Dobbin sliding a little bit. Let's go ahead and do the Jacobi thing though. I think this is the solver likes this. It's just slightly ahead of ADP here, but at only three wide receivers with Trevor Lawrence, I think this is the place to build out a bit of the backstack there. And then we can look to tack on either Hunter, Strange, potentially. So we now have Trevor Lawrence, Kyron, Kamskatovo, Ramondray, Chuba Hubbard. We have Aminrod Drake London, Christian Watson, Jacobi Myers, at wide receiver. Brady Sanders wants to talk Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. I think their good values late. What am I missing as a Steelers fan? I think there, yeah. I mean, when you look at my portfolio, Jeremy Bernard is like my most drafted receiver. I think Aaron Rodgers is last call for a quarterback who should be expected to start 17 games. I think Friar Mooth and Darnel Washington are good lake picks. Pitman seems fine to me within the Jacobi Myers mold as well. I don't have anything bad to say about the Steelers prices. All right, back on the clock here, this is going to be the Jared Goff selection. A little bit past ADP, Aminrod was our first pick. Nothing else here I have to have. We're looking at Kenny Gainwell, Wondell Robinson. Let's grab Jared Goff here. So now we have the skinny stacks with both of our quarterbacks, Lawrence, with Myers, Jared Goff, with Aminrod. Takes on my cheaper, slappier version of Territz Ferguson, Mitchell Evans. I have not given Mitchell Evans much thought yet. Go AZ cards. That feels a little bit like peak July drafting boredom to me. I really don't want to be drafting tight ends once Gaseki's off the board. Darnel Washington is kind of like the lone exception there of a guy who's kind of fun to dream on. But man, it really feels like you're just taking a zero messing around like that. Lucas likes this team here. It is a different team for me. Haven't drafted a lot like this with this structure, but getting the two quarterbacks in the window, kind of four running backs in that dead zone. So it doesn't feel great, but I think with the profiles of Scatabo and Ramondra and Kyron and guys who will catch passes, it doesn't feel quite as gross to me. Amen, Rod Drake, London, Kyron Williams, Cam Scatabo, Christian Watson, Ramondra Stephenson, Shuba Hubbard, Trevor Lawrence, Jacobi Myers, Jared Goff, best ball breakfast July 20th. My 88th draft will be joined by Mark Dank after this Sam Sherman, Pat Karein, lively chat hanging out. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the channel. The like button always helps. I think last episode we hit 10k views here. Things starting to heat up. Once we get to August, we're really going to be rolling. My plan is to add an additional best ball breakfast each week in August. The plan will be to add those on Wednesdays. I don't think I will have a set lineup for those shows, but I'll be bringing on some guests, some people that I haven't been able to draft with yet this summer. So stay tuned for that way more best ball streaming in drafts coming your guys's way in August. 11.7, the next pick on tap two quarterbacks, four running backs, four wide receivers here. I'm going to go ahead and grab Aaron Jones here. Aaron Jones, my rank 120, ADP 120, we're sitting here at pick 127. Let's go ahead and grab Aaron Jones. Karein Williams, Cam Skataba, Ramondra, Shuba Aaron Jones. We'll play a little fast and loose with tight end. I certainly could have justified grabbing my first tight end there, Goddard Ferguson. But maybe we get four tight end curious on this team. Although I don't think it's curious anymore. I think the fact that I've done it a few times, I might just be four tight end open minded. On the right builds, it certainly makes sense. Jay can't wait for the annual BIME 4 rep. Yes, for sure. He's exactly one of the guests that I will book. We always try to book it around the same time that we did draft that team that finished top 10 in Best Ball Mania 2. I got to go check the date. I think it's like an August 12th, August 13th in that range. So yeah, we'll get BIME 4 on and try to recapture that BBM magic like we do every year. Oh, man, are they going to make me draft Isaiah likely? Breton Strange also makes too much sense. Although it's a little bit of a reach on Strange. It is interesting to kind of think through the correlation here versus the ranks in ADP. McMillan goes, let me just make sure. So I do have Scatabo. I just think, man, let's go Hunter. I want to build the cheap version of the Lawrence Backstack and this kind of gives us the second correlated piece takes a little pressure off if Strange doesn't come back and we will keep pushing tight end here. So we have the two quarterbacks, the five running backs, the five wide receivers, zero tight ends through 12 rounds. We'll see if this burns me, but I think I can still catch up at tight end. And it just felt like a little bit of a weird spot to pull up Strange there, likely still on the board, the chick still on the board, there is a tear break at wide receiver for me here. Once Cooper, once Hunter are off, you see here, then we're down right into that nailer Jennings tray tucker. Like for me, when you get to pick 150 here after Omar Cooper's off the board, like all of these guys are the same. Like I have a hard time differentiating Jalen Nailer from some of the 18th round selections. So let's go ahead and get a correlated fifth wide receiver here. Let's go ahead and get on the board. I don't know if it's demon clayborn, I don't know if it's Nicholas Singleton, I don't know if it's Emmett Johnson, I don't know who it's going to be, but there is going to be a riser. Allah, what we saw from Jayden Blue last year, we will start to get excited about one of these backs and typically it is one of the backs that are in an ambiguous backfield like Washington, like Minnesota. So I definitely think there's room for some surprises in those backfields, but I want to keep taking stabs on. On these Vikings backs because the price is really nice on both Mason and Aaron Jones. And this is the spot I'll get a guy like Jones my RB five seven picks past ADP and now I do feel good that I waited on tight end here hunter Henry Breton strange is here I do prefer strange Henry's not a bad consolation prize though. Chad goes with Denzel Boston, so I will go ahead and lock up my cheat version of the Trevor Lawrence stack and this is like, you know, I said I was open to the, you know, fully naked Lawrence, but this is how I would my preferred way to pay the jet play the jacks avoid the most expensive pieces Brian Thomas Parker Washington. I think there's a lot of fragility there backstack it with three stacking partners all going after pick 100. Your margin for air your mo to being right at pick 103 with Myers pick 138 with hunter pick 151 was strange. It's just so much wider than it is investing those early six around picks in the other guys. [BLANK_AUDIO]
knowing how many different ways this could play out. So I like this team. I like getting the Trevor Lawrence Backstack version. I have not pulled off one of these, like this in Best Balmania yet. All right, on the clock here, Lawrence Goff, probably gonna rock a two quarterback build here. We could be looking at our second tight end. It is probably TJ Hawkinson. Solver likes Hawkinson. I do have the Aaron Jones pairing here. If I don't take Hawkinson there, and the next guy available is like a shults a barner, a dulcich, I am probably forced into a four tight end build. Not that that's the end of the world, but Hawkinson at least gives me the flexibility to probably roll with three if I want to. And so now through 14 rounds, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Kyron Williams, Camp Scout of a Ramondra Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, Amon Rod Drake London, Christian Watson, Jacobi Myers, Travis Hunter, Breton Strange, TJ Hawkinson. Don't mind it. Don't mind it. I will not be drafting LeQuint Allen. I will not be drafting LeQuint Allen, but I will say this. LeQuint Allen could certainly be a fly in the ointment for both Chris Rodriguez and Bay shell tooton. Like that could be the ultimate buzzkill if LeQuint Allen has a big pass-ketching role. I was here, I was listening to Ben Gretz talk about it. It was either on stealing signals or on the projections pod with the ETR crew. And he was saying that he thinks LeQuint Allen is just gonna be in the long down in distance situations, you know, when they're in third and 16, and not on the field a ton in other third down scenarios, which would make him less of an issue. I think to Rodriguez and Tooton both being able to pay off at cost, but if he is like the full blown third down back and those guys are getting yanked off the field in a lot of those situations that aren't just long down in distance, then it could be an issue. UCP, are you maxing the eliminator and if so, how are you attacking those drafts? Yes, I am. I'm in slow drafts. I've been adding about 30 slow drafts a week to make sure I can max the eliminator. We have a couple of shows on the eliminator strategy from often on the clock. I would definitely go check those out. You know what? I think I'm gonna have a luxury pick here at some point. I'm gonna go ahead and take Bryce Young here. Like these are the spots where I didn't feel the pressure to force QB3 on a Lawrence and Goff team, but you're gonna give me Bryce Young, ADP of 158 at pick 175. As my third quarterback there, I also have Chuba Hubbard on this team. I'm already invested in Carolina's success. I'm gonna go ahead and just tack on Bryce Young here. And now we have three more picks. One of them is for sure a tight end. One of them is for sure a wide receiver. And then I think the final pick is either getting me to a seventh wide receiver or a fourth tight end. Ideally here, I think we get to three tight ends and then we are able to use the last two bullets on wide receiver. I think that's probably the optimal path for this team. Quick rundown, Oman Rodd, Drake London, Kyron Scatabo, Christian Watson, Ramondra Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Trevor Lawrence, Jacobi Myers, Jared Goff, Aaron Jones, Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange, TJ Hawkinson, and then we get a sliding Bryce Young. Aaron Roddures goes ahead of him, Mendoza goes ahead of him. Bryce Young at 175. I'm okay with that price. I like that price a lot. You kind of look like Will Ferrell, bro. I saw Will Ferrell on the jumbo tron at the World Cup game yesterday. I'll take it, man. I'll take it. Yeah, this is gonna be tight end for me. And I want to look through here, Gunner Helm. I like, Aught and I like. Then we're down to the Ferguson Gisickey. Let's check the buys here, seven and nine. Let's go ahead and grab Gunner Helm. We'll grab Gunner Helm as our third tight end. I think it's probably pretty close between Aught and in him. There's just what? A little bit more. Probably mystery box upside with Gunner Helm. Can we get the breakout? Offense can cam ward improve. That tight end's gonna come along for the ride if cam ward takes the step. We kind of know who Kate Aught and is at this point. And on a team where we have Strange and Hawkinson, I feel like that's a decent base there at tight end. Let's take a slightly bigger swing on Gunner Helm over Kate Aught and. Man, I tell you what, I didn't we talk about this on Best Ball Breakfast last week. I cannot talk about the Panthers without someone coming in on the chat and saying something like it's Dan Mack just said, "Jetavian Sanders, ST." And I said this before, you guys are gonna make me relapse because I was a Jetavian Sanders bowl. I loved that guy. I thought he was gonna be the next great thing at tight end. It is a really weak depth chart. I will give you that at tight end. I mean, what a Panthers tight end depth chart. I mean, what are we even working with over here? Is Tommy Trembl still on this roster? Tommy Trembl, Jetavian Sanders, Mitchell Evans, there you go, the Mitchell Evans guys. And Felipe Franks, you cannot convince me that that is not a pizza joint as opposed to being a fourth tight end. I will not believe you. All right, two more picks here. Round 17 and 18. I do think we're looking at wide receivers here. I need to make sure Lawrence were done stacking golf with Detroit were done. Test laws off the board. Bryce Young, I think Brasel in the 18th certainly makes a ton of sense. And so we're looking for another option in here. Week 11 and week seven buys. We probably want to avoid. Let's do what Taekwan has been a guy that I've been enjoying a bit in this range. Let's go ahead and do Taekwan Thornton. We're at the point where outside of stacking purposes, man, I look at these names of wide receivers. Ted Hurst, Darnell Mooney, Cooper Cup, Pat Briah, Elijah Sarat, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Keishan Booty. I feel so dead inside when I read those names. Just so, so dead inside. So desensitized. I can't get up for it. I can't get up for my 17th round pick. No butterflies. Nothing that sparks joy in my life when I read those names. But yeah, Dwayne was really selling me on Taekwan Thornton. I do think he's one of those guys that I feel good about the role that he is going to be out there. And I was impressed by how well he played last year. And you get all of the kind of contingent upside fragility-- or sorry, contingent upside-- through Taekwan Thornton with the fragility of Rashi Rice, Biggest Knucklehead in the world. Xavier Worthy, you guys want to do the injury thing? Let's do it with Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelsey's ancient. I mean, there's paths to even more targets for Taekwan Thornton in that offense. The solver wants me to take Cooper Cup here, but I will be taking Brazill. We're going to have a little fun. I need to feel something. I need to feel something here with my final pick. 3563 definitely need a wide receiver. I think you could argue, guys like Darnell Mooney, guys like Cooper Cup are maybe a little bit safer. But I think with this base up top with Amin Ron, Drake London, and Christian Watson, I think we can take a swing here, get the obligatory rookie on the roster. Can't win BBM without a rookie, guys. I don't know if you caught that memo, but you can't win BBM without a rookie wide receiver. Pete feels something when he drafts Pat Bryant. You know, I used to, but then I clicked him so much. You know, for a late round pick who has an ADP of 204, like 9.2% is a decent amount of a player. I'll still take him on bone X teams. I have seen some of the reporting now where they're making it seem like it's going to be a true battle for that wide receiver three. And that you could have a rotational element where depending on the game flow, depending on the specific down and distance where Marvin Mims gadget packages might make more sense. Troy Franklin downfield threat might make more sense. I do think Pat Bryant is the best of those three. I think he fits alongside of Sutton in Waddle, the best of those three. So I still maintain he's going to kind of lead those guys in routes, but if we enter any kind of rotation, it does start to get really dicey with Pat Bryant. Sweet Leaf says the chill gonja Pete Silver Stream is what the masses want, but Pete to be too high to keep up with the queue. By the way, that reminds me, if you guys did not see the best ball bash last Thursday, we've had some awesome bash episodes. I think this was the best bash episode we've ever had. We kicked things off with fantasy pill, really strong guess. We drafted a fun team. He pushed me, challenged me on some of my player takes. We drafted some guys I don't normally take. And then things really got off the rails in the best possible way. We had little Trev join the stream. And he joined the stream, the first thing I see when I pull him up,
is he shutting his front door and running back into the house and I immediately knew I immediately suspect what had happened. He had gone out to smoke a bowl right before coming on stream. He later admitted that he was nervous and he was excited and he tried to calm his nerves. The dude was zooted to the max just hella lifted for 18 rounds. He was pulling up gallbrain moves. We took Teterroy and McMillan at the two three turn. Absolutely hilarious draft with little trev and then after that we had a guest named T guard who calls in from the warehouse of a medical supply company that he shares with his dad who's his boss technically a stepdad but we get this heartwarming moment of him saying that's not my stepdad that's my dad one of the most genuine moments we've ever had on the bash we drafted a fun team his dad's barking at him from the other room it felt like an episode of the office meets workaholics I think easy said it reminded him of tires just an incredible episode so make sure you guys go and watch that that's the best ball bash every Thursday noon eastern if you're a youtube member you can join fantasy pill little trev T guard get a chance to come on stream draft a team with me all pay you can do weird shit you can draft Teterroy McMillan at the two three turn I don't care we'll have a fun time a glorious time in this past baseball bash lived up to my expectations for the bash what I thought of this idea for a show here's the team guys three five seven three I'll say this man I a lot of times these first drafts in the morning you know they can feel feel a little rusty you know they don't go well maybe I'm getting stream sniped maybe there's a bunch of you guys in here trying to take some of my guys I like how this one turned out I really do you guys tell me if you agree Trevor Lawrence Jared Goff and Bryce Young at quarterback Kyron Williams cam scatabo Ramandre Stevenson Chuba Hubbard Aaron Jones at running back my guess is you're not going to love the running backs but I think from a pure draft capital spent projectable volume I think it's a good team I think where you poke holes in the running back room as you say where where's the late season juice do you can you see any of these guys late in the season projecting for you know 18 plus points per game on a weekly basis I think that's probably the holes you poke there the wide receiver room Aminrod Drake London Christian Watson Jacobi Myers Travis Hunter Taekwan Thornton Chris Brazel I think you have three legit alphas there in Aminrod London Watson you have the correlated piece with the chief Jags wide receivers and then you have two you know better and best ball dart throws in Taekwan Thornton and Brazel and then the three tight ends Breton Strange TJ Hawkinson Gunner Helm went really cheap at tight end first one at 151 but I think strange Hawkinson Helm I think that plays let's check the draft report here compliments of the solver I was talking about the combinatorial tool earlier obviously you sink your teams get all of your exposures get that tool up there you also get these post draft draft reports which are a nice way to quickly visualize your team and you guys can always get 20% off the solver you can see it down below there right now with promo code Pete move that banner for a second so you can see it they have a couple different price points depending on the volume of drafts you're doing but if you're doing any kind of volume you know 10 15 20 plus drafts this summer highly recommend it really good way to keep tabs on your portfolio and make sure that you're mixing it up a bit looking at my report here nothing massive in the ADP value or the draft capital value buckets there did reach for Ramanjray was kind of reaching on some of these receivers but really like it from a team level correlation standpoint Lawrence triple stack golf skinny stack brace young with chuba and brazil although do I get my week 17 card revoked here no week 17 correlation I feel like that's almost hard to do I feel like you have to go out of your way not to just blindly stumble into some week 17 correlation but I didn't get it guys I didn't get it no week 17 correlation for me still got to get there bro this does feel like a team that could get there feels like a team that could get there DMC likes a good-looking team there's teagard in the chat means a lot tumbling thank you all go check out teagard oh yeah Chad was right next to me in the draft now I'm putting together the user names there he says you snipe me on Ramanjray and I got stuck with Barker washi did sorry brother this team need scat about to stop back flipping I assume everybody saw the back flip at this point is there anyone that still needs to see it here here's the uh oh my god I love how he shows his knee before too that falls out I mean this guy is just pure pure energy I mean the amount of creatine coursing through his veins right now pre-workout I mean just absolutely jacked up what a dude what a dude copy paced laid says he likes brazzle gonna moss a couple dudes this year Bryce deep balls nice yeah man like I know we're all I mean clearly people are skeptical with Bryce Young I mean he just went at pick 175 but I think you'd have to be pretty damn bad to get bench I mean we've seen it right it happened with Andy Dalton initially but I think we're we've kind of progressed past that point in his career I think he's gonna play 17 games we've seen the spike weeks from Bryce Young I mean this guy has put up 30 balls he's got a little rushing juice to his portfolio he can throw the deep ball a little bit they keep adding weapons for him year two terroya breakout I'm excited about Bryce Young at these prices Harb says Aaron Jones feels like the wrong profile as the RB5 feels like that should be an upside guy you know what it's funny you say that I was looking at Keaton Mitchell there he was available when I took Aaron Jones I think the thing that I would push back on is that the way the running back points hit your lineup in bestball I do think there's value to having these guys that can hit at different times of the year and if you just stack five of these bets that are constantly hitting your lineup I do think it really raises your floor but I hear you on it that the whole I said you could poke in it in this running back room is exactly what you just laid out like take a bigger swing there try to get some late season juice Keaton Mitchell probably would have been the pick if that's what I was truly going for there Tracy goes after Keaton Mitchell goes at 134 Spears marks I would also just say outside of Mitchell I don't even know who fits that bill in this range and even with Mitchell yes I think there's contingent upside there of Hampton gets hurt but it does really feel like in that scenario that we just get like a bigger role from Kamani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell's role doesn't necessarily change and so then it comes back down to what do we think the base Keaton Mitchell role is going to be and I know there's starting to be a lot of enthusiasm for Mitchell Ben Gratch wrote a big long piece about him recently I'm certainly opening up my eyes to some of the ceiling scenarios but I guess I would just say harbs in this specific instance I'm not sure that that even accomplishes what I would be hoping for in that because to me it just feels like we're going to find out what Mike McDaniel's role is for Keaton Mitchell I think pretty early on this season and we're going to know is this just a replay of what happened with Keaton Mitchell in Baltimore all these years where he's pretty capped from a touch perspective or are we in a most diverse H&N 2.0 kind of thing where he's heavily involved but yeah they thinking through the contingent stuff with Keaton Mitchell's kind of interesting Greg wants me to pour some more coffee I think I'm running out here but I got you brother I got you this is a good question Trevor is anything happening with the master class this season yes we have been begging begging the powers at B to get us the 2025 data I am told it will happen soon and yeah John Nez and myself definitely want to refresh some of the 2025 data get some updated round tables and updated course section that is on the road map new me if you're watching can we please get that data please wow you guys are being rough on Aaron Jones it feels like Aaron Jones is just expensive Albin Camara at this point and I'm a Vikings fan yeah I don't know if I agree with that because I think I think Aaron Jones is going to have more bass work than Albin Camara's like I think Albin Camara's role is going to be very specified two-third down situations I think Jordan Mason will obviously So you get the bulk of that.
of those early ones, but they're gonna have drives where they keep Aaron Jones on the field. And he's rushing, you know, I think they're gonna have drives where they're in a hurry up and they don't pull Aaron Jones off the field when they get inside the 10 yard line. And Aaron Jones gets some goal lines. Like I view that more as a committee back field where they might be comfortable rolling them out drive by drive as opposed to him being really pigeonholed into a third down roll. I mean, Aaron Jones has carried the load throughout his career. We've seen Bell Cow, Aaron Jones. So I think that's a little unfair to him. I think he's a better interior runner at this point in his career. I mean, the juice just completely fell off for Alvin Camera at this point. So that is the 88th Best Balmania team in the books here. My Best Balmania exposure is kind of borked just because so many of my Best Balmania teams have been drafted with co-managers. But whoever was asking me about the Steelers earlier, there you go, Jeremy Bernard, 19.3% through 88 teams, Dejon Stribbling. I feel like any time I draft was Sam or Pat, we take Dejon Stribbling, all on up to the Travis Hunter exposure here at 17%. Calvin Ridley at 15.9%. I don't know if I would have guessed that one. Do love Devonte Adams, 15.9%. I think a smash pick in the middle of the fifth where you can still get him. Geno Smith, my most drafted quarterback at 15.9%. Can't say I love that, but I am drafting a lot of Omar Cooper. I think where's my Omar Cooper exposure? I say that, and I can't even find a bottle of this list. Am I not drafting a lot of Omar Cooper? 8%. How much to dig do I have? 12.5%. I think it's Garrett Wilson, that's probably driving a lot of that. Yeah, 14.8%. So Garrett Wilson is an early fourth round stand for me, which is funneling me to a lot of Geno. Breeze Hall, 12.5%. So yeah, when I end up with these jets early, Geno, as that cheap quarterback three, definitely comes into focus for me. And now you can see here lately, Ramondra really charging up my exposures up to 14.8% on Ramondra. I agree with this from Charlie, putting Keith Mitchell in the same tier as Aaron Jones, Slappy's getting bored in July. I think it's a fair conversation about what kind of profile do you tack on there? But man, maybe it is just the humility element of getting humbled like over the years with Bestball and just stacking these bets of guys who have more defined roles is generally going to be better and work out for you more than kind of taking these more uncertain mystery swings. Those all have a place on teams for sure. But yeah, a sliding Aaron Jones there and kind of the thing too for me, not to belabor the Vikings backfield. But the Vikings backfield is a spot I want to be targeting. And I've used the example I wrote about this in the Fantasy Life newsletter. The Vikings backfield feels a lot to me like the Dallas backfield heading into last year. And yes, Aaron Jones versus Jordan Mason is way more of a battle than Jaden Blue versus Javante Williams. And obviously we were all wrong on how involved Jaden Blue was going to be. But the reason it was comparable for me is I basically ignored that Cowboys backfield. I said, I love this offense. Dax is going to cook. George Pickens is the best pick you can take at the four five turn. All of that stuff was correct. And yet somehow in my mind, I decided to segment off the running back game and say they're not going to have enough running back points. It's going to be too messy, it's going to be dusty, whatever, just invest in the passing game. We know the overall success of the offense is correlated. That if George Pickens is cooking, if Dax is cooking, there's going to be goal line opportunities. And guess what, that's what happened. Javante Williams fell into the in zone a million times last year, shoved it down my throat. It was like, come on, how am I off that after being interested in the offense? So that brings me to the Vikings. I think Kyler is going to be a shot in the arm for this offense. I do think they're going to get the most out of him in this offense is going to be a lot more dynamic. And I don't want to just now wave Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, because they're a little older. They're a little less exciting. If these guys are in a 50/50 split in an offense that takes a leap in KOC's cooking and Kyler's cooking, there are going to be a lot of points to be had here. There's going to be a lot of touchdown opportunities. And I think I'm just content saying, I don't know who it's going to be, but at these prices, I want to load up on Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. That's just kind of where I'm at right now. Current ADP, Jordan Mason, 115.4, Aaron Jones, 120. And I do think there are scenarios where both of these guys can pay off these ADPs if a third back isn't involved. And we'll all pay attention, right? If Demon Clayborne is coming, if he starts knocking, and we hear the drum beat, and we see the signals in preseason, I will adjust on this take. I will certainly adjust on this take. But right now, I think the most likely scenario is Demon Clayborne red shirts this year. And we all get excited about these rookies. We want him to be the guy because a young player leading this backfield is way more exciting from a pure upside potential than just Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. But the most realistic thing is Demon Clayborne is basically a fancy zero this year. And Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones are at a 50 split. So we'll talk with our next guest here about this situation. But I am just taking a humility approach to this Vikings backfield because there aren't too many spots like this where it's a two headed backfield going this cheap in drafts. And I haven't even pulled off the double tap of these guys yet, Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones. I actually think it's cheap enough. And I think their roles could be different enough that you're not running into like a handcuffed situation where you're eating a zero from one of them. I do really think you could return value from both of these guys if the offense is good as I think we all hope it can be with Kyler. But let's get Mark Denk up here. We'll see if he agrees as we kind of talk through this spot here with the Vikings, Mark Denk. Not even a temperature last name. I heard you call me out on the established the Edge podcast. We're just going to stick with what you put in your Twitter handle, Mark Denk. Welcome to the show, brother. You're smart, man, Pete. Yeah, I mean, it's more memorable too. And I was hanging out with some friends this past week. I was in a four sum of golf. I knew two of the guys was introduced to the fourth and introduced myself as Mark. And then out on the course, my friends are calling me Denk the whole time. And at a point, he turns me in. And he's like, what are they calling you? Like I thought your name was Mark, you know? Like, oh yeah, it's a last name's Denk and bring. But don't need to pronounce the last two syllables. So Denk works. Yeah, the Minnesota backfield is a fun one to talk through. And we just hit it on the NFC North pod for ET last week with Gretchen and Jack. And that was one, like going into the conversation. I was like, honestly, I don't have a huge take here on either guy that I love, but I had been taking both up to that point. We were a little bit ahead of ranks on both, honestly. And at the time of recording, their ADP was both like 118 on underdog, exactly. And so, you know, pretty much was a toss up. I kind of left that conversation thinking, I want a little more Jordan Mason on underdog and a little bit more Aaron Jones on PPR sites, you know, like draft Kings or anywhere else, just kind of leaning into their profiles a little bit. But I certainly think both are good bets. And I was looking, as I was listening to your, to you kind of go on about the backfield. And last year, the Vikings running backs had nine rush attempts total inside the five yard line. Wow, there's over 20, there's over 20 running backs. And the NFL had over nine on their own. So, you know, just the lack of opportunities in like the scoring scoring zone there for for the Vikings was was horrible with Jay Jim and Carthie. And like you said, just like having having a Kyler Murray there is going to lift the whole offense, I think, you know, pretty, pretty severely compared to what it was last year. If you got that list pulled up, how many did Javante have last year? Let's see. Javante was at 16. He was actually fifth, fifth in the NFL with 16 rush attempts inside the five yard line. Yeah. And so it's like, what do you think of? Obviously, I think we all kind of think Jordan Mason is the favorite for goal line carries. But I do think there's scenarios where Aaron Jones, he's been trusted at the goal line over his career. I don't think it's going to be something. So even if you split up like the 16 Javante things there and you get like a 10 six split with these guys, I mean, you're starting to see a pretty massive jump in just their opportunities last year as far as the backfield. And a way that the ADPs could work out for both of them. For sure. And last year it was six to two in favor of Mason over Jones. But it's hard to know exactly when that split happened. Obviously, Aaron Jones missed some games. You know, maybe there was some time where we're Mason got some inside the five carries when Jones wasn't even an option. I think it's probably a scenario like if Aaron Jones gets him down into the five, I don't think it's an automatic sub out to get Jordan Mason in there. You know, I do think if they're if they're on the one or two yard line, like it's probably going to Mason. But in terms of like if they're in just the flow of a drive, I don't necessarily think like Jones getting pulled out every single time down there. And he's also going to be, you know, overseeing back around the goal line to has that talent. We've seen some some running backs utilized and in that role over the years as well. So this is another thing and it's funny because we got Minnesota Mike is the username here. He says, JJ was historically bad, but does it make anyone else nervous that Kyler hasn't been able to clearly
when the starting job, KFC still doing interviews and willing to crown Kyler the starter. I've basically just ignored and not waved all that as just like classic coach. We got a camp battle, you know, like I just want to make him earn it. I mean, does anyone think that Kyler Murray isn't taking the job week one and does anyone even think that he doesn't have a pretty long leash? I don't, I'm skeptical. - Well, there was a Gretz mentioned this. There was like a quote that O'Connell had on it during an interview recently where he's like, you know, we're excited to get back to like our quarterback doing doing their job so we can have a better offensive output or something along those lines, essentially just like Barry and JJ McCarthy's performance from last season. So, you know, I kind of came into the spring being like, man, it potentially could be a little bit of a battle there, but I definitely, I mean, I would be shocked if Kyler Murray is not the week one starter. - It isn't there too, like there's this, you know, Chad says he's always politically, you know, playing the politics there, which there is this element of like, you drafted JJ McCarthy really high. It's an absolute whiff of a pick. You had to go out and pay Kyler. There's an element of saving face like saying like, ooh, he's showing some stuff like, ooh, maybe there is still something here, whether that's drumming up for a trade market or just trying to not look like, oh my God, organizationally, we whipped on this pick. Of course, they're not gonna, you know, completely say he is dead to everyone and will never play another snap in the league. - 100%. I mean, he's still on your team, still in that quarterback room, like they want to, they want to imbue some confidence and, you know, it's not like they're just, they're just gonna act like he's, he's the worst player in the world and there are, there are, you know, cases this year where if Kyler goes down, like they might kind of go back to JJ. They do have wints, you know, on the roster still, they, you know, maybe he could, he could play ahead of him, but yeah, it's not like you want to cut down the confidence of a guy on your roster. - Any other spots, you know, over the weekend, I do feel like we are in like the deadest of dead periods as far as actionable news or anything like, even I go to world-of-world and it's like, there's like three blurbs from the past, like seven days, like nothing is happening other than Cam Skatabo doing backflips on one leg. So have there been any other interesting discussions for you guys internally with projections? I assume even talking with Gretches, maybe giving you guys some new ways to think about things, any noticeable adjustments or has it been kind of plateauing for you guys as well? - Our changes recently have definitely been spurred by the ETE pods with Gretchen, like after every episode we'll leave with some notes on things that we want to change. And so we've kind of released some batch changes this morning. Love Tam was in our slack, kind of just saying, like, hey, how do we, how do we feel about this, some Ajay P-Rine rank again? Wanna make sure we're good there versus him and Taj Brooks and kind of same with Justice Hill. And these guys at the back end of the drafts are so sensitive and are the easiest to get, you know, 30, 40 spots ahead of rank. So in our ETR season long ranks, we have a base outcome for players and then a ceiling outcome for players. And a lot of times with Vets, Cooper Cup being one of them at the end of drafts, we've kind of slash their ceiling odds. So, you know, the odds of hitting their ceiling case that we've given them. And so we ended up just doing that with P-Rine and Justice Hill for the Ravens because, you know, even if we think they're the favorite for RB2 work behind Chase Brown and Derrick Henry there, like if either of those starters went down, we don't think they would necessarily be put into, you know, a major workhorse role. And so we kind of slash their odds of hitting that ceiling case and they did, you know, drop quite a bit in the ranks. So that's probably a spot to reupload Pete there, if you haven't. I just did. I think, yeah, perfect. So yeah, that was the only changes this morning. But now for the most part, I mean, you know, on the news front, it's very quiet. Any of the changes have really come from the pod with Gretchen and just, you know, reanalyzing our spots. - Yet DG asks the other question that's kind of on everybody's mind right now. When are we going to get these old wide receivers signing? Obviously, Diggs is a big one. Debo, there's been a decent amount of chatter about Keenan Allen recently as well. You guys, and this was one of the big differences right between your guys' processing Gretches, is that you guys are leaving some target share available as you guys work through these projections. Gretchen's kind of working with the players available right now. Do you have any kind of timeline on what you're envisioning here? Because I think I even heard you guys reference, like, oh, you know, if it comes like September 1st or 2nd, and we don't have it, maybe we'll start reallocating this. But the majority of people are going to be drafting their bestball teams before then, too. So how do you think through that push pull? - It's tough to know. I don't really have a prediction on when these guys would sign. I would think, you know, once camp rolls around, which is in the next week or so, that I'm very excited for training camp to start because then we get some actual news and things happen across the league. But yeah, in terms of leaving unlisted like target shares for teams, even after we did the Packers on the ETE pod, we were kind of like, man, we saw a lot of unlisted here. We think out of the teams left that they're probably less likely to, you know, sign one of these veteran wide receiver. So we took some unlisted wide receiver target share and gave it to Jane Reed and Matthew Golden there. You know, for teams like the commanders, the raiders, we've left the lots, the chargers we've left a little bit just with Keenan kind of still being out there. I also saw some rumblings like over the weekend that like Debo's been hanging out with with Kittle and some of the 49ers guys. So that could potentially be, you know, reunited there, which I hadn't heard before. So, but there honestly are a lot of, a lot of names still out there. It would be, it would be awesome. Awesome for us drafting if they were to sign some more soon. - For sure. Yeah, and I think it's, you know, it's good to be careful. I think at least drafting the veterans. I think all of those guys are gonna rise. You know, I was even writing about digs the other day, you know, when he had his quote about how he was the best wide receiver to in the NFL. And I was thinking even in the worst case scenarios, like I would say the raiders, the dolphins, those would be spots were not too excited. I still think his ADP even inches up a smidge, just because there's confidence in the stacking, you know, just the ambiguity is what generally keeps those prices cheap. And then there's the scenarios where it is the commanders, it is the Ravens that you get this two, three round windfall, Keenan Allen signs with the cold, he's moving up three or four rounds, same with even Debo to the Niners. So, at the very least you're getting CLV here. And then I think the hard thing is do you want to protect yourself against the incumbents, the teammates they'd be joining on? Like, are you getting bad CLV on Josh Downs? Are you, you know, as all of a sudden Dejan Stribbling looks like a really tough pick, if Debo goes back to the Niners, that's the kind of flip side that I think's a little more tricky. No doubt, and I think once Camp gets going, like I can't wait to see if Alec Pierce is practicing early on because that's probably a spot that holds, I wonder like internally, you know, this is all speculation obviously, but I wonder internally if they're like, hey, let's see, let's see in Camp if how Alec Pierce is performing, you know, if he's, if he's going to be healthy week one, like, I don't, I don't think they probably feel super pressed to add to that room necessarily. But if he, you know, if there's questions over week one, or if he doesn't look great off the bat, like maybe there's a little bit more urgency to get a deal done or something. So I think, you know, the start of Camp will really start to kind of trigger these teams to making decisions. - For sure. Yeah, and because like similar with a guy like Kenan, the flip side is true too, right? Like, they don't want to come, and it's like, oh, Alec Pierce is healthy, and Downs is out here, and you're just kind of like riding the pine. Like, these guys want to play if they're coming back. So they're probably all just waiting to see, is there an actual role for me here, or not? I guess with the commanders, it's less about the injury timelines. It's just like, do they actually want to add a body to their room? We are underway here, 89th, basketball, mania, draft. We got the 102 mark. I assume we're keeping things above board here with Bijana. You got a fancy plan, you know? - No, Bijana, Bijana works for me. - All right, let's do it. Do you think, cause there has been a lot of talk lately, and I know you guys are firmly in the Gibbs. Over Bijana, crowd. You occasionally see people flip these two. I think kind of liking the perceived safety of Bijana a little bit more. Do you think Bijana is closer to Gibbs, or closer to, say, a CMC Jonathan Taylor, as far as a running back tier kind of discussion? - I probably think closer to the middle of the first. I've really started to get even more confident on Gibbs, is like the 101. And, you know, I'm in a couple of auction drafts. Like, I'd be willing to pay, I don't know, five to 10 more dollars for Gibbs and then Bijana. I think that's how we have it in ranks. I think just with the level of the offense, you know, feeling so much more confident there, and then Gibbs' explosiveness. And just like, you know, I think Bacheco is as much weaker competition than Brian Robinson. You know, I love Jamir Gibbs. I think it's very hard to get away from him as the 101. So, you know, Bijana, a few more questions. Obviously, he's electric too, but there's so many moving parts there in Atlanta. You know, I'm a little bit worried about the QB play and hard to know how's the Fanski and this new offense is gonna go. So just, way more questions. I feel like our own answer to Atlanta. - Yeah, and I think I agree with you. I think if I was gonna do the devil's advocate, I'd be like, if Al Jir was staying in Atlanta and we were just kind of running this back, are we still drafting Bijana 102? My guess is we probably are, especially how we finished last year. And then it's like, Brian Robinson at best is like a poor man's, Al Jir, as far as his juice. And I think you could probably assume, like maybe he does get a little less goal line work than Al Jir, who they really liked there. If he is functionally more closer to a Pacheco type, like doesn't that give us even more confidence in Bijana 102 than we would have had otherwise? - Very well could, yeah. And, you know, I think,
I think in the first round sometimes it's like it's hard to paint the bear case a lot for these first round picks, not like I think Bijan is a bad pick by any means we haven't we haven't met number two, but it's more more I do think gives separates as as the 101 in my mind at least. But yeah, it's not like not like I'm fading fading, Bijan or anything certainly happy to take him when when the ball when the board falls that way. Bijan we're about to pick here at two 11 we have H and London pickings come off the board will see what spider monkey does here best available by ADP Bowers Collins Jeremiah love Bowers does go rank is Collins love here ADP Collins love I've been trying to get a little bit more love but I'm also open to Collins for sure. Now i'm in the Nico let's go Collins for sure all right let's do it we'll grab Nico here to pair with Bijan let's make this next pick and then we can kind of talk through these two selections here. This has been I think a tricky part of the board the early start of the third where I think you can start to make the case it's pretty flat McBride's now been falling more are you pulling up a wide receiver here. Rossi rice goes will see what M Martin does with their second pick here by ETR rank it is love and then a lobby we should talk about a lobby Jeremiah love is still here rank and ADP like something else. Now let's do Jeremiah that sounds good he's someone that this is a turn that I felt not super convicted on it at this point of of draft season you know I do like Nico a lot at the end of the second there but kind of wants to get back to the early third i've had a tough time so if if love is there I do like taking him a lobby I've started to make mixing like defente Smith a little bit over a lobby I just don't want to get too tilted there towards towards a lobby but. It's certainly the saints offenses is one I think is is like a really fun bet in fantasy. Yeah and yeah the I like how this works you know sometimes I talk talk through this with me because you know and maybe it's just because i'm kind of in a Jeremiah love phase right now and have been getting more excited about just getting this kind of profile at a third round discount really you know one of the things I wrote about in the newsletter as I was looking at the gentie price last year as our before he finishes as our be 16 and it's like a disaster because. Cook and in Taylor and the other guys going around and have these league winning seasons Jeremiah love right now I believe is rb 13 you know even if he has the gentie finish of an rb 16 it's like it's a small miss it doesn't even kill your team necessarily if he has a couple spike weeks like gentie did it's like he could be a fine advanced rate piece and so i'm just starting to think that i'm I'm appreciating the discount that we're getting on a guy like love and when McFarlane supermodel is top five since 2017. So it's rare to get a guy like this here but what would you say is is the whole or why love is fairly priced in the beginning around three. I think it's to me it is the the competition in the backfield plus just just the how tough the cardinals schedule is and how you know they're projected I think score the the fewest points or like bottom three across the league in terms of you know projected team total there they're first part of the schedule. The through the first 12 weeks is just absolutely insanely brutal and then so honestly like in bestball I think love I started this I was fading most of the cardinals like coming in to the summer and then. As the price I've gotten a little more appetizing i'm like man in bestball when when all the money's in in the playoff weeks especially week 17 that have such such a strong playoff schedule like i've been more interested in taking love lately so you know I think it's probably easier fades and in redraft where. You know obviously the payouts are in week 17 and redraft as well but I think it's going to be tough to have too many successful teams you know featuring cardinals players throughout throughout the year don't love the the cubie play scenario there so i've come around on taking him a little bit more but yeah I do think the schedule concerns and just how outlier high their password was last year I just think you know it it's going to over correct or it's going to correct you know a ton there this season so hasn't been a spot i've been super easy to take. The chat does mention the cardinals playoff schedule chat here to us as they get jets new warlands Las Vegas so yeah if you can get them there you can certainly see how everything comes together for. You know him putting up 20 plus points a game is the bell cow back in a soft schedule so yeah certainly intriguing there we're about to be on the clock at 4 11 McClaurnd comes off the board as the slider by rank atoms of course always here leveling swift jamo demon who do you like. I'd probably be jamo or davante i do like lovelands to but i think we got to get a wider super here let's do because davante i feel like i'm able to get him in the early fifth pretty reliably i have a nice bag of him here 14.5% let's grab jamo i want to talk about him after these two picks and then we'll kind of have flexibility. This drafter could go loveland and atoms and then maybe we're scrambling a smidge but i think this will be a good spot for us he goes Lamar so loveland in the fifth feels great. Oh yeah i love this and senior is that 5% there you got you got to get that up heat i think i think loveland is probably one of the best picks on the board right now i've absolutely been been love and taking him over last couple weeks i i don't think it's a far stretch to think that he could be. The top pass catcher in in that offense and and just really love love his his profile answering i mean he was only 21 last year and just absolutely dominated down the stretch i i think loveland is is one of the best picks on the board for sure. So the 2v2 you could look at would be and again mick bright sliding but for most of the summer he had been going early third mick bride and monk gumbry in this draft or Jeremiah lover loveland. I mean yeah i i would take love and and loveland there for sure and we've got the love squad baby bunch of bunch of love on this team beat all you love love let's talk about jamo they're obviously the ETR ranks very bullish on atoms i certainly see the case for for atoms over jamo but it does seem like you have a little bit more optimism than maybe even the ranking would suggest for jamo. Yeah that was a spot you know i'm going to be i've already referenced the et pods with with your time but you know that that was a spot like we were we were way behind gretch on jamo and he we were you know pretty much in line with him like in against ADP and in the efficiency case for jamo has been there is is like pretty easy to see as well and then. Just like the concentration of targets on the lines it's a spot where at their price right now I think they're all good bets and then if any anyone in you know out of amenora jamo laporta Gibbs like went down I think things would really just condense on on the other guys there you know the other top guys and and so you have a pretty solid base case and then man the ceiling case gets pretty pretty outrageous and and jamo is one two I kind of forgot last year you know you like seasons go seasons feel so long or so long ago and I I feel like forgotten like jamo. I had forgotten like jamo like you said you know a couple times in the first few weeks of last season and people were absolutely panicking and then absolute and then he just you know smashed on the stretch so. I think I think it's it's a great base base bet on on jamo just in this offense and then again if anyone else gets hurts the volume can really consolidate around him. For sure yeah yeah I mean it's too like it you know if you're really simplifying things of just having shares and ways to get tether to this lions offense that we have seen be so explosive they get these shootouts you know they're one of a handful of teams you know I've been talking about the Niners being another one the Rams the bills that are willing to get these like 40 to 30 you know Dan Campbell not taking his foot off the gas and yet the nice thing has been the jamo stuff it used to feel very volatile and like you said some of those goose eggs but then that like target floor really started to inch up and it gave him just a little bit more of a base there while still accessing that you know weak winning ceiling that so enticing so yeah this turn here jamo coast and love and I do need to boost my love and exposure but man getting him here in early fifth certainly feels nice you know compared to the mid fourth where as the stew references sometimes you do have to grab him there. Yeah this team in the one spot is is interesting they pulled up say to the two three turn and then and then took Lamar at the four or five I'm not not seeing that done yet that seems like a pretty interesting move. Jane Daniels goes that slide would have been fun to stop hurts Pollard McKay lemon Warren QJ here by sorry I'd be meccaf with rank yeah okay let's do meccaf there by rank. He's an interesting one I feel like I've taken my foot off the gas with meccaf just because I defaulted to him so many times here of like yeah it's probably the best you don't pick from a projection standpoint. I have been like mixing in a little bit more like trying to get hurts in my kind of lemon here lemons and interesting one to talk through just because your guy's rank is so different than the ADP but let's make this choice here at seven two and then we'll figure it out. Pollard Ramondre hurts Rico probably our top options I'd probably go hurts here I think yeah I don't necessarily love our Caleb already went so we don't have that option and then I don't necessarily love like you know start like golf I would prefer more as a QB to then necessarily starting a build with him so I think hurts is a good one and then you know he is he is week 10 by so overlap with loveland if we did want to get Goddard lately but or Goddard. Or Goddard later you know I probably a two tight end team here so that's not necessarily the most ideal but yeah I think I think hurts that let's see what QB six off the board here I think that's very solid.
So talk to me through that because I do agree like this part of the board gets really flat to me and I have been going Daniels or hurts here. I think I probably would have gone hurts and then had the discussion. Do you go lemon with him? Do you go Metcalf? Talk a little bit about the lemon stuff because the ADP I know leg up is a lot higher than you guys with lemon. Why so bearish on him relative to ADP? Yeah, it's a tough one. I think the Eagles still, it to me, it kind of comes down to how do you project their offense in terms of pass rate and just like overall past tense because I feel pretty confident that Fontesmith is is going to be like the clear alpha wide receiver one. Target and then here and then we have McCoy lemon second on the team at 18 and a half percent target chair, which is which is which is high like for Metcalf, we have him at at 18 and a half percent as well, you know, so similar target shares their lemon. I think, you know, we we project more is kind of like a lower a dot not extremely efficient player and so in the volume, you know, if he is going to be the wider super to there, the volume doesn't project to be outstanding for us right off the bat. Also, you know, just not not sold that he's going to play in wider seaver two sets right off right off the jump there and in Philly, so it's a spot that like on the on the projections, it doesn't come out great for us. I think silver is also a little bit lower so kind of all of us at ETR, you know, don't necessarily feel the need to like bump woman up too much. Certainly is is a scarier fate just as a has a, you know, first one wider seaver drafted to a fun fantasy offense, so like I'm a little bit scared in that regard, but there's also time, you know, between now and the start of the season's essentially come up there. A little bit we kind of thought the market would would come to us a little bit more as the summer has gone along, but I do think the leg up the leg up push there is strong to keep his price where it is. And it's it's kind of binary to write these first round wide receivers if if it's Omar Cooper, you know, human resources get him away from me if it's tethered to a team like the Eagles and it's like okay i'm i'm on board here. We're about to be able. What's i was just going to say same with case you can sepsion as well, it goes 45 pixelator like I don't I don't really think there's a huge gap there obviously the qb play is is drastically worse and Cleveland but overall. Laporta here if we that's too much at tight in Michael Wilson fan in what do you think i'm okay with Laporta let's go Laporta try to set up this double stack here potentially with golf always interesting to check the. The almond raw draft or no quarterbacks here they're probably going to take him at 103 114 which isn't the end of the world just a spot to think through there we're probably not going. Quarterback here if I look at running backs and wide receivers pierce all dobbins Wilson Jonathan Brooks Jacobi by ADP by rank you still have Wilson Myers golden dobbins here i'd be fine with. Here's all just went that's a bummer i was hoping to get him first in week 17 man i don't love Wilson but this is an okay price I probably Wilson or golf so up to you on that one. Let's see here and golf way down here at 109 I think we let golf go with this like full wall here. I just heard a wider saber just just in general given given we drafted her it's not not the cleanest run out here Pete but you know we can we can figure it out. Yeah yep in that you know these are the spots that can be kind of tough where. If you are really staying tethered to to ranks you know a guy like Laporta it certainly makes sense in the combination with jamo it does like box you out late draft flexibility because we're probably not going to draft a third tight it with lovely. No definitely not so yeah definitely not going to draft a third tight end so it does yeah close close down that slot but. I don't know in general to I think on underdog with with guys like loving in Laporta yet you could you could get some flex week scores out of out of those two as well so it's it's more like confidence and and seeing them just as great pass catchers less so then strictly at the tight end position there especially since we are you know a little bit behind like draft capital at wide receiver. I think we can almost use that that tight end to spot as as a glorified wide receiver there. Look at this super chat bomb here from captain apple jacks 50 smacker ruse here love both your work seems appropriate with the prodigal son returning Leonie. Who do you both think will be a Leonie player that he will say is under or overvalued in move ADP I mean I'm guessing. Mark he's probably going to be pretty in line with some of the current ETR stand so it is a little more interesting to talk through where he might disagree with current ETR staff first of all has he been a voice in the projections chat at all or is he really on his whatever off season run spring here and not involved at all he he has taken more of a step back just on the projection stuff that that has been more jack and I's responsibility this this summer than in previous years. I would say up top it but you know Leonie always has always has input in and there are certain spots he's he's chimed in on for sure looking at the top of the board I kind of feel like Leonie is going to going to be in on. Tramick bride and in the middle of the third round for if we're looking at the top of the board I think that's probably a guy he would like out of out of speculation but. Man much harder than know like a fade that that he would be into at this point of the off season. Yeah I mean it you're the generally the safest bet is someone that we get really excited about with upside scenarios that he's going to be a lot more down on as far as like getting their projection wise you know I could see him. You know i'm thinking like the key Mitchell Isaiah like Lee's of the world I could see him being pretty down on those guys relative to ADP. Essentially no idea looking at this draft or this player just took conception and they have six straight wide receivers there I kind of want to see their team how they started because that's that's like a fun. This is Hawker pretty sure he's a leg up guy so this definitely looks like a sim build a Taylor Brown Kyron and then ripping some wide receivers in there. We did lose golf which is fine quarterback wise I don't think there's anything else we need to address here we're probably not looking at tied in so i'm going to filter to running back in wide receiver thanks again captain apple jacks but we are on the clock here by rank Shakir Rodriguez dobs Tracy Coker Higgins. I'd be fine with Crod yeah Chris Rodriguez yeah and then. I don't know Shakir dobs I don't have a haven't been taking a ton of I think they're both fine we we're a bit further behind on dobs to start the off season i'm certainly fine with him though we don't have too much correlation going on here though let's see. Yeah it's dobs is kind of the ADP guy Shakir is the rank guy do you have a preference what do you what do you think about Higgins and going the Houston double with with him and Niko let's do it let's do it you know we initially maybe allegations were building you know you're just a slave to the ETR ranks here having you know Shakir oh Shakir on an ETR team surprise surprise and then you get us on Higgins here I like it. Absolutely and hopefully on stream doesn't doesn't hurt us here for a potential snipe but. I do do like that I think the text and stuff is being way overblown in terms of like how bad shroud played in the playoffs was listening to Greg rose and dollars pod recently he had air shots on from ft and fantasy you know who does the almanac and and they have like the Texans as the most likely super bowl candidate out of the AFC and. He saw I think he said shroud was like 11th and EPA during the regular season last year among quarterbacks and obviously people just really remember him shooting the bed and the playoffs but he was he was solid in the regular season I think with the weapons there with Niko and and Higgins like if we can end up end up getting shroud to add on there I think I think he's pretty undervalued and fantasy drafts like the fact that cam word goes ahead of CJ shroud I think is is is pretty wild. Alright we'll chill out on the CJ shroud hype for now Charlie says no need to overthink it his fate will be lemon yeah I was trying to think of a fun one that might not be in line with current ETR ranks Robert floats a burden price yeah I've mentioned burden a lot feels a lot to me like early career JMO where it's like the spike stuff is so evident but it could be pretty rocky on a week to week basis and you know be end up being one of those low advanced rate guys that you're just. Hoping to sneak through knowing he can he can spike there this this comments interesting to me Rodriguez over JCM is diabolical i'm like the complete opposite side of that take and that I think JCM is one of like the worst picks on the board right now with just how much ambiguity I think there's going to be for that base work job in Washington and just not assuming that there's really any kind of holdover or pull position for JCM when you factor in his. Yeah when you factor in his draft capital rather to relative to cage on Allen and the McWeapon being there in Jerome Ford so I don't know it sounds like you're probably on the same page with me with with Crod but what do you think about bill yeah it's mostly it's mostly the competition in the back field like JCM just has so many more bodies to sift through to get meaningful work and then Crod you know kind of just has has to have.
something that happened to Tudon or, or, you know, there, yeah, there's just less, less competition for touches there. So I think like if you put JCM on the Jags, I'd be, I'd be fine with it. It looks like we were able to get strailed back here, which I think is the move for sure. You were flying close to the sun over there, Mark Icarus, but we got it. We got it. I love it. But yeah, I, like, uh, Levitan asked us about this last week after he came off, you're a stream and it was kind of like if JCM was on, on the Jags and had the same pathway as, as Chris Rodriguez, like, I'd probably be a little bit more excited about him, but just the fact that he's dealing with like four or five potential running backs. It, um, in, in that back field, whereas, you know, Rodriguez only, only pretty much one. Like I don't think LeQuin Allen, even though he's going to have a third down role, I don't think there's, there's much upside the, to LeQuin Allen's role. Like I, I think Rodriguez is, is for sure the better bet. About to pick here at 13 to after we add CJ Stroud for that double stack. You know, the only running back around here is Pacheco who is on our lion's bet. And then it, like, Jawan Jennings, Omar Cooper, Jalen McMillan there. What do you think? I'd be good with, uh, I'd be good with any of the wider series McMillan, Jawan Cooper. So, um, let's go McMillan, I think given, get, get your exposure up on him a little bit too. I, I do like McMillan as, uh, the wide receiver two or three there in, in Tampa Bay. Yeah, either talked about him with you or Levitan, you know, he was definitely a guy that I've been. A little hesitant with specifically on teams where I don't have Baker in just, you know, essentially being a little concerned, is he a lock to be in three wide receiver sets? Or is that going to be the rookie Ted hers? Also, could you have a sit scenario where there is a flippening later in the season? Does the presence of guys like Tess Johnson and their ability to kind of rotate through some of these guys? Does that hurt McMillan? Can Baker at this stage in his career? Support Igbuka in Godwin and Odin and allow Jalen McMillan to still have that. Those are kind of my, my issues with him. For sure, I think, I think he's just been honestly like really good whenever he's been on the field though. So I feel pretty confident like in his talents. And then, you know, the bucks passing offense in general is, is one I want to get behind. So, um, you know, I think he's going to be pretty far ahead of, of Ted hers. Can, can her, track him down throughout the season? For sure, but he's also, you know, we got him in the 13th round. It's not like we're expecting him to to be like a bona fide contributor for us, you know, weekend and week out. Just hopefully get, get some, get some usable weeks throughout the season. So here's the team right now through 13 rounds. We have Hertz and Stroud, just the three running backs. But, uh, Bijan, Jeremiah, love Chris Rodriguez up to six wide receivers here. Nico, Jamo, DK Metcalf, Michael Wilson, Jaden Higgins, Jalen McMillan, Titan, Loveland, and Laporta, you mentioned it earlier, like working through this draft. Like it does, like things don't seem to be coming together super clean. Other than that Stroud fallback, like in there is something to be on the 101, the 102 side, you know, you're, you're trying to pick off values. But man, when you don't have the benefit of being able to see how the board and the runs are going from the middle part of the board, you do get in some of these spots here where it's like, all right, we're kind of behind that running back. But there's no good running backs here. We're already, uh, you know, spent all of our capital at tight end, but there's some good tight end values. It's been a little tricky. Right. I think you have to make some calls, especially in, in like the Laporta Wilson turn. It's like, okay, should we take pier saw and then like pull up purdy a little bit, you know, at like the eight nine turn, I think there's, you know, in hindsight, we probably should have made those, those picks more like in tandem with each other rather than, than isolated picks on the board. So I do think that is kind of like the critical part of the draft. I felt that in years past to like the eighth, ninth, tenth round a lot of times. It's like, you know, you, you, that, that's where you can start to pull up players further ahead of ADP. I feel like, uh, then, then, you know, earlier in the draft for sure. All right, we are about to pick at 167. Of course, the best running back on the board by rank is a handcuff to our 102 selection. Uh, you guys are now ahead on Camera after he signed. I was looking at the fantasy life stuff. Uh, he goes, we're ahead on him as well. Uh, we could play and then a Algier, too, behind the rocks, just, yeah, we could do a Tucker thing. Uh, we got all these rookie wide receivers in the mix. What do you think? I think let's go wide receiver. Um, anyone in ADP that is earlier, I'm, I'd be fine with Judy. Um, I know it's not the, the best solver score, um, running backs. I don't, I don't really want the handcuffs to, uh, I think this is another tricky spot because it's like late. Um, you know, wicks, the Texans wide receivers make sense here. I do really think running back is the spot we need. And yet we just don't have the place. So I mean, we probably need to pull up like a Tucker, a Samson array Davis here. I'd be fine with Samson or Tucker, um, yeah, either of those. Yeah. Let's do, we did Judy. Let's do a Cleveland turn here. I've personally been taking, um, more Tucker on, on underdog, just with, I think like his, his, how you will come in the goal, I enroll, uh, similar to how it was last season and, and Samson is, is more of a pass catcher. So, um, and, and, and I think that's why we have Tucker a little bit ahead. Just in underdog ranks. I haven't taken Samson a lot, um, and on, on draft Kings, for sure. His, his receiving metrics were pretty, pretty wild last year for a rookie running back. I think he had like a 29% target for outrun and, and, uh, 1.6 yards per outrun or something. Let me pull up the, the exact, uh, stats there. But he was really impressive. Yeah, 29% target for outrun and 1.96 yard per outrun as a rookie last year in that, and, and that Cleveland offense was, was pretty elite and, and talking through that backfield on the AFC North pod, you know, top mountain has, has almost always used like a, a past specific RB2 in his offenses. So feel pretty good that he is going to maintain that role coming into this year with, with judge Kinsmore is the early downpounder. Yep. Yeah. And I think, uh, having that out right that he's not just a true zero, where he has to have an injury to gain well or bucky to have some usable weeks is pretty important. Um, I think to those, Samson is intriguing, obviously the offensive output will probably be nowhere near, uh, the amount that the bucks will be in scoring position. But, you know, looking at how bad that offensive line is for Cleveland, if they are, they're, you know, have a sky high pass rate because they're in so many of these negative game scripts, like Samson is kind of a, even a half point PPR scam, you know, he could be that, you know, harkening back to the old days of Nigham Hines, that old profile, that kind of gain well turned into where it's like you have a floor and then because he is a younger guy that has a little bit of juice, maybe you get a big play mixed in here there as well. No, don, he was, he was the RB1 and carries over. He was the Hiems Anders last year when one Jagans was injured down the stretch. You know, he didn't, he didn't have a great or was not efficient as, as a runner last year, but at that point in the season, the Browns O line was an absolute catastrophe. Uh, hopefully that's a little bit better this year. So, um, I, I like baton on Samson as, as a year two, you know, kind of come up player. And like you said, it does provide a little bit of a weekly floor there. All right, here's what we're looking at for landing this plane. A two four seven, two, we got Hurts Stroud up to four running backs. Beige on love Rodriguez, Samson looking good at wide receiver. Nico Jamo DK Metcalf, Michael Wilson, Jaden Higgins, Jalen McMillan, Jury Judy. Of course, had those two early tight ends there, Loveland in LaPorta. Three more picks to go. Uh, one probably, go ahead. Are you fine with like a two five nine two here? What, what are you thinking in terms of how you want the final builds to look? Yeah, I mean, QB is pretty much wiped. So I don't think we're forcing anything there with Hurts in Stroud. I don't think even tight ends wiped and I don't think we're forcing anything with Loveland in LaPorta. The picks that make the most sense for us are kind of some of those wide receiver stacked wicks. Yeah, no, we just got to find another running back here. Yeah, um, yeah, and we could almost go six, six running backs. I, even though like the draft capital allocation isn't there for wide receiver, I do feel decent about the room. Um, mm hmm. But yeah, I think I think running back here, I'm, I'm going with Davis or, or Kate, Ryan Allen, I've been taking quite a bit of as well. Yeah, um, let's see here Malik Washington goes, let's go ahead and grab Davis first. And then we can kind of have the discussion of if we think six verse eight is more important for us here. Yeah. I think like, man, I don't love taking. Philly, wide receiver is late, but like we don't have any stack partners with, with Hurts. So I'm kind of leaning towards going nine wide receivers and adding. Someone like wicks, um, and then I think wicks is suited out. Yeah, top solvers suggestion there too. I think, I think sounds good. I guess the, if like, if we were able to get both Ray Davis and Tucker, I'd be like, let's push it. And then we could grab Noel as like a fallback option late, but in this spot where we're now to the K Toronto and the rookie thing. I say we just lock up that, that eight stacked wide receiver. Yeah. Yeah. And it's, you know, I've loved wicks over the years that he's been an amazing target earner when he's on the field for the packers. So, uh, certainly, you know, and that kind of goes in line. I guess a little bit with our, with our lemon fade. And you can see even though we're behind Mark and on lemon, it's not like we're super high on wicks or, or Hollywood brown or anything. I think we're just expecting a little bit less pass volume from, from this offense, which, um, maybe, maybe is a mistake with wish on manion coming over. Alright, I think those are the toughest, the toughest things to project in the offseason is, okay, really how much is this, this offensive coordinator going to move the needle in terms of past rate, how aggressive they're going to be.
um and Philly and that's something like week one and week two we can be like oh man this is you know that the Eagles offense is is gonna look quite a bit different than and we have projected coming into the season. Where are you at on the Dell in Noel thing you know one of my like portfolio goals has been to tilt more exposure to Noel because I'm a little too heavy on Dell and I think there's enough uncertainty there and then you start to layer in the draft percentage for these guys the injury stuff with Dell and I'm like I'd actually rather be I think overweight Noel at least head-to-head with Dell how are you guys thinking through those two? I've been taking both um I think that Jaylen Oll is like pretty much a slot-only player and given what the Texans did in the draft this year they also kind signed a couple pre-agent titans I think they are going to lean more into heavier personnel so she when Cade Stover came back towards the end of last season they had like their highest rate of 12 personnel and the last like I think six games he was back so you know in that regard I started taking Dell quite a bit more thinking okay he could he has a chance to get on the field into wider super sets I don't really think Noel does and then given like the strength of the Texans defense you know I think Noel is gonna be out there more in an obvious passing situations and so if they're not trailing a ton then I'm not sure really really where the playing time is going to come from but ultimately I think the roadblock for for Noel last year was was Christian Kirk was in that slot role and obviously he's gone now so I do think the runway is clear in that regard and so I think they're both fine that's I'm really eager to hear what tank Dell's what his practice participation looks like in training camp here soon just because that was such a massive injury I mean he tore his ACL MCL LCL dislocated his kneecap and had meniscus damage so it sounds like he's playing you know on a on a like a brand new knee essentially or you know fully repair knee yeah it's tough to know this is actually an interesting spot it's like can you find something to love with one of these running backs to justify the sixth knowing we are a little weak in the back in there or do we not fight it and we try to build out the strength that wide receiver with Noel as a stacked up triple stack I kind of like Jordan James here as as another running back you get some week 17 correlation on that Philly game and then kind of build that out since we already have Higgins and Collins I feel okay about the Texan stuff but I don't know what it I'm fine with either ultimately no I'm fine with that I I needed someone to you know give me some confidence on one of these names obviously there's a ton of holes you can you can poke in them I did think it's interesting have you guys come up on getins is that a new one to have him in the mix here as well as far as like I assume that's because you guys have confidence on him is the clear rb-2 right now in that McGowan's not going to be a factor we haven't changed anything on on getins recently do you think he is the favorite for the rb-2 role there so we have a pretty big gap between him and McGowan but nothing's been changed like input wise lately on him he's he's someone I'm fine taken at the end of drafts I know listening listening to occurring last year he liked to jiggins as a prospect and and he just you know didn't get the opportunities because JT still stayed healthy the full season so I do think he's still in line as the rb-2 there and and then yeah Jordan James was someone who on the ET pods as well like I went into that not not having a super strong take on James first Kalen Black but I do think if CMC went down that that Jordan James would be the favorite to be the workhorse just because his his past catching profile is much better than Kalen Blacks like him Black hardly caught any balls at at IU when he was there whereas Jordan James had had that role at Oregon you know he's been in the system another year so I I've been leaning there at the end of drafts and I I think the 49ers you know rb-2 situation is one like in training camp if there's buzz around a certain guy I think they're going to rise I don't know what 40 spots maybe like I feel like they'll be going in in the 150s 160s and and so I've just you know kind of been mixing up taking stabs on both now that they're around like you know past pick 200 yeah all right this team is in the books as we kind of said it was you know there were some trickier spots it wasn't one of those where the draft kind of you know made the picks itself for you which sometimes happens sometimes you got to really work for it here 2682 let's see if we landed the plane Jalen hurts and CJ Stroud at quarterback ended up getting those six running backs Bijon Jeremiah love Rodriguez Dylan Samson Ray Davis Jordan James wide receivers Niko Jamo DK Metcalf Michael Wilson Jalen Higgins Jalen McMillan Jerry Judy Don Tavy and Wix and then those two nice tight ends there Colson Loveland and Sam Laporta I'll go ahead and grab the the solver report here about how do you think we did I I like it overall getting the Stroud double I think really made this team it made me feel a lot better off going kind of like the the two tight ends early on you know on hindsight I kind of I kind of wish maybe we had one more wide receiver over a six running back but ultimately just just the way the board fell I think I think that's that's fine and yeah I've been taking haven't been taking a bunch of Jeremiah love and Michael Wilson so I think it's good to get those kind of correlated bets on on the same team here yeah for sure I mean you look at our we got a bet on who do we got here Philly and Houston are obviously our team stacks but multiple pieces there from Arizona from Detroit and I you know getting a value on golf sliding back would have been awesome but I have no problem with hey we built out another stack we still reap the benefits of correlation you just need those spots where it's like CJ Stroud keeps pace you know with golf or you know in those really specific pod dynamics but I have no problem just continuing to stack team bets like that yeah and obviously not the smoothest there from from ADP value but I do think that's kind of what you get on the turns sometime is sometimes you'll get some some great falls other other times you kind of have to make the board your own and make some calls there so you know don't don't necessarily love seeing all all that red in terms of ADP value at the end of drafts but ultimately I'm pretty happy with how things how things landed at the end yeah it kind of goes back to that thing as well too of you know we know ADP value is important but ranking value is important too and there are some picks you just have to make to make a team work you know and I think we were getting behind at running back like the Rodriguez pick is a good example of okay you reach 8.2 picks that's our biggest reach other than Judy there but man like you can only push RB2 so much longer and if you miss out on that pocket with the Minnesota backs with the Rodriguez you start to then say okay well now we probably four or five late running back to just actually make this team work absolutely and we got we got to the point where where the top two backs were handcuffs for beach on in Jeremiah love which isn't you know isn't necessarily the best spot to to be in either there so yeah the the cliff at running back after after kind of that C-Rod and JCM tier is is pretty stark for sure where do you have you know because those are almost the exact spots where I like really don't want to take two running backs where it's like your early investment in these other guys and those players are going to have very little stand-alone value just because these are three down bell cows ahead of them is there a price on those guys like you know all of a sudden Brian Robinson's at pick 190 or you know Tyler Algier is at pick 185 then is it like all right let's pair them together well there was a point where Algier was still on the board and I think we were coming up on on the Ray Davis pick at like 191 and and I was literally about to ask you that same question like I you know is this enough value ADP value for you for you to take both and I think it would be at that point I would probably like to have it on a team I feel better about than the Cardinals but you know in terms of if you got like 20 to 30 spots ADP value and it's a position in need I think it'd be hard to to pass up in that scenario yes yeah no I'm with you there yeah so Algier goes off the board at 186 we picked Davis 191 yeah right so like it'd be felt like yeah yeah yeah that's hard to turn that down and that that's where it's like more of an art than a science like you know I don't know exactly oh you have to wait at least 14 spots past ADP to take like the the handcuff RB2 or something I think it's more of a field spot and even like setting aside you know Algier as a younger guy with with more juice than Brian Robinson I do think I like that pairing more than the Robinson Bijan because there could be the baton type of thing with Algier where he's in a true split and he's getting the goal line carries in more involved and then we slowly see love come on like we saw that you know Jonathan Taylor I think was a good comparable his rookie year where he was undeniably more talented than Nahim Hines but they were still using Hines pretty you know frequently even through week 11 12 of his rookie year so I do think those are scenarios where we're talking how do you get a Jeremiah love team to the finals when you know you're likely sacrificing some early season projection relative to the other two three term picks maybe a guy like Algier helps you accomplish that in a very straightforward way that's a great point and you know I think Pete you know ballman I've been listening to the so you think you can tout so this I survived a three-night weekend of solo dad duty my wife is the maid of honor for her sister and they had a bachelor at party this weekend so Saturday night I got got my daughter down to bed and I was sitting on the couch whipped up some some underdog drafts and then I I pulled up so you think you can tout at like 915 p.m. on on a Saturday you know and I was like man here here I am the life has changed quite a bit in the last few months but I did think it was a great episode that that's been a great show and and for me especially this this summer, you know, doing the ET pods and kind of being the host of
that. That's a more of a new role for me and listening to you and Davis kind of talk through like the the differences of being a guest like on the show this morning. You know, it's it's so nice just to be come on and know you're you're going to lead the ship here. And I just have to throw off some takes and some projections. But you are an amazing host and in a ballnower. So don't don't tell yourself short it in any facet these days. Well, I appreciate that. Yeah, it that's been one of the fun things too. You know, I've joked around how, you know, the show hasn't found is wide of an audience as I hoped. But people who are content creators, I think have gotten a lot out of it because there isn't really, you know, we'll occasionally talk in long form about stuff, but to actually put the stuff under the microscope of like these are the skills. These are how you improve them and then to have such a wide variety of guests with different skills, like even going from Mayo to Silvan Levitan, like really different styles. And so that has been really cool to hear other content creators say how much they've picked up from it. And I do think like you're an awesome example of someone who I've even noticed listening to you, like the reps. And I think even why you're like, Hey, I want to come on these shows, whether it's with me or sub in for Levitan is because you just know those reps are going to get you to the spot. You want to be as a broadcaster. And I think it's been cool to see you even step up and like even having you hosting the ET pod. Like I think just you as a broadcaster, you've like improved exponentially since the first few times I heard you on the mic. Yeah, thanks. Yeah, it's been massive getting the reps and just knowing how to prepare. I think I I'd be curious your your level of of kind of like notes or when you go into shows like how how much do you have to prep between shows? Because you know, for me at this point, like I, you know, I'm I'm prepping a ton and I think way more as the host knowing kind of, okay, like this conversation could go three or four directions, whereas as like the guest, I feel like you're you're often only talking about kind of one or two points or you know exactly what you want to say about a specific player or a spot where it's host, you have to kind of, you know, be able to just like riff on on anything that comes up, which is admittedly the hardest part for me is taking like a conversation that I don't know exactly where it's going and trying to like to relate that back to to the topic at hand. I'm curious if you continue to prep more for shows or at this point, just given all the reps that you've had, you feel pretty good that you're kind of weekly work leading up. It is the prep and inherently. Yeah, I think for you know, and I've mentioned this on the show a few times, writing the fantasy life newsletter that really like my whole riff on the Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason stuff was I written a newsletter about that backfield a week and a half ago and when I was starting to talk about the Jeremiah love thing and benchmarking him to the genty stuff, I had written a newsletter about that. So I'm recalling research I did for that and that really, really helps because yeah, can I vibe based and you know, aggregate thoughts and takes I hear from other people, sure, I can do that. But having written that and done the research and then basically being able to just pull it from the back of my head when it comes up has been such a nice thing to actually bring stats be a little bit more well prepared. So yeah, for me, the research is the writing and the stuff I do and then the conversations. I think for you though, establish the edge like it's so specific with the projections and how granular you guys are getting that by necessity, it has to be very well researched because you can't like get up a vibes based conversation about a fucking projection, like it has to be steeped in the numbers there and you're obviously going back and forth with Gretchen. I think you guys balance that well because the Gretchen ability to kind of not necessarily even push back but see your projections in a different light. That's what makes the pod so good. But I do think there's a difference like that pod. If I was doing that pod, I would have to be staring at the projections a lot more. I would make notes on what are the things that are interesting here? What goes against how the market thinks? But yeah, with a lot of this stuff I do with the drafts, it's just like we get in all these spots where we talk about these different teams' players' values and just being steeped in it and writing about it and thinking about it all the time. Generally, you'll have enough nuggets to pull when stuff comes up without, you know, concrete prep. No doubt. And ultimately, projections work is ball-knowing and a lot of sense. You know, it's it, you have to understand the teams in context. And like I said, with the Eagles, for an example, you have to try and project, okay, how are these offensive coordinators going to impact the offensive scheme and stuff like that? It takes a lot of ball knowledge. So yeah, in deep weeds on the projections, but like for the most part, I'm more curious and picking Gretchen's brain on how I think these offenses are just going to play out schematically. And there's so much coach movement nowadays. I think it's upwards of like 20 new play callers this year in the NFL. So that just adds a whole another element where it's like sure we can talk about the nitty gritty projection numbers. But we also also have to understand the the context of the team and really try and dial that in as well. Yeah, and it's I think it's fun. I you know, I talk about that, you know, there's lots of good analysis taking part right now. And I love the ETE pod as this kind of like zoom out pullback moment because you know, I'm guilty of this as anybody of like you get stuck with pattern matching, you know, we like thinking about, you know, themes year to year. It's like, who's going to be this, George, George Pickens. It's like, Oh, Jalen Lotto looks a lot like that. Sometimes then getting into the numbers, thinking through how this actually plays out in practice, it can kind of snap you out of using those things as a crutch and really have to think individually about these players in these situations. And so yeah, it's a fun reset here. And now it's going to be the perfect calm before the storm where we actually get concrete information from training camp in preseason. And this year, man, I keep saying it, it feels like we are set to have the draft board just really shuffled up because there's so much, I would say like not resistance like you could tell me a wide receiver shoots up 50 spots or running back shoots up 60 spots because these tears in these walls feel so long to me that it's just like I think we're we're due for some really fun movement here within the next month. No doubt that as well as all these free agent wide receivers signing is going to shift things at the time, you know, we hit on that during the show as well. It's like, man, because because not only on those individual players themselves, but obviously the teams they land on, we're going to be changing projections and there, there are some some big names still out there. I mean, and it's even like, like, I don't think I you because it's going to sign with the team at this point, but like he's he still could, you know, and like at that point, that you'd have to take him seriously, because like Kittle and one of Kittle's interviews, he said, you know, I think it was like last September, last September, October, like he's out he's out there training with him and like he looked explosive at that point in time. So, man, it's yeah, I agree that the board could get shaken up in a major way here. And finally, we're we're almost to that time. It's awesome. It's awesome. A couple quick hitters here from the chat. John Warner wants to know, dank, did you have to sign a contract to be able to use the hello and welcome to establish the edge? Yeah, so I mentioned I just had my first kid. I had I had to sign over rights to my second kid to the Levitan there to be able to chime in on the on the old hello there, but I think it was I think it was probably worth it, you know, I think Leoni's ears were burning because he fired off this tweet about an hour and a half ago. I guess maybe this was before you came on, but he says, I've been quiet this offseason due to a combination of taking a little extra time off to touch grass and devote the time I've been working to back in stuff for ETR, just got home from vacation and getting settled, but you'll see me back in my more usual offseason ETR role over the next few weeks. So Leoni fans rejoice with that announcement. Oh yeah, I love to see it and you know, this is I I tweet out today as well. This is my five-year anniversary of starting full-time at ETR and since then, you know, if we've we've created a full data science department that Leoni, you know, like helps oversee and is doing all these offseason projects, like the offseason is like a quiet time for for me specifically in terms of, you know, offseason projects, but like I was talking to Connor who's on our data science team and he's like, oh man, the offseason is my my busiest time because they're they're they're continuously running, you know, updates to the models and algorithms and doing all the like the back testing stuff. And so Leoni, you know, has been messaging me and Jack and Slack kind of like, like, hey, you know, I looked into, you know, certain spots that we're under projecting like, you know, RB target share and and you know, the wide receiver three against like weak defenses and you know, so all these things that he's testing in the offseason that that wasn't a thing for for us four or five years ago, but now having built out this data science team in Leoni kind of being the head of that more of the offseason stuff for him, I think is is focused more on improving our projections for the upcoming season and like in season for DFS. One more final question for you on the way out. Multiple people excited about this one. Any advice for the NFL projection open position ETR is hiring for? This is a good one for a want to be applicants. Yeah, this is I would say not a not a ton of projection or excuse me, not a ton of advice in terms of like what to do right now. We got a ton of amazing applications. I think for the most part, like what we talked about in terms of like reps and just getting hands-on experience with this stuff is is such a massive separator when when you're applying to these jobs because you know, everyone loves fans football and and like, you know, it has had success in their home leagues or you know, maybe had one one big win in DFS or or best ball or something, but I think having hands-on experience saying, hey, even you know, I gave a shot at like building my own NFL projections model like I remember back when I interviewed at ETR. It was actually for an MBA role back in towards the end of 2020. You know, it was like, hey, I built I built my own MBA DFS projections model. It's not super sophisticated like I was just multiplying like minutes projections by their fantasy points per minute output and you know, doing like ranks that way, but it at least like showed initiative and I had worked through a full, you know, excel spreadsheet of like building out all these teams and players and having things linked and having like a, you know, a leader boy by position that
of my best values and best projected plays and just having anything concrete that you can say, "Hey, this is a problem I wanted to solve and here's how I went about it XYZ is probably the best thing you can come into these applications or interview process is really just trying to have some hands-on experience with the task at hands." -For sure. Yeah, and it's crazy. I've never done projections at like one very simple example. I know when we do our FFPC playoff stuff and I watch Pat do the ownership projections for those in just this concept of a trickle-down effect of where you change one thing and then it's like, "Well, where is that coming from?" And the same thing I assume with you guys where it's like, "Oh, everyone's like you're too low on this guy, you're too low." And it's like, "Okay, you come up on him, but at the expense of you, are you now saying their pass rate is 2 percentage points higher than what the baseline or the average would be? It's like, you have to make sense of it holistically. And I think that process is so fascinating and why, you know, it's so easy to nitpick a single input or a single player, but not realizing the butterfly effect it has on the overall picture. And you guys have a lot of good historical data of how this stuff actually has to work to make any kind of logical sense. -For sure. And those problems only arise when you're trying to do that process or tackle that problem. You come up with way more questions and then solutions on how to think through things and fix those issues. So I can't suggest enough just trying to do things on your own and tackle it. Or for you on the so you think you can tout stuff, it's like, "Man, just start streaming and getting reps in and building that up and take videos of yourself." Because yeah, you're going to be uncomfortable at the start. It's going to, you know, it may not even be super impactful for your personal process at that point in time, but for them, you know, at the end of the day, you're going to build super valuable experience. And that's going to be way easier to sell to someone to be like, "Hey, this is what I've actually done not, you know, I think I could probably help you. I've thought about this in this way." It's like, no, having the hands-on experience and going through the troubleshooting and the problem solving on those tasks is massively valuable. -It is true. It's funny, you know, to even tie it into the so you think you can tout when we had a lot of the submissions. And it wasn't that you had to have been doing this already to have a chance, but there is an element of show don't tell. And a lot of people, I think, with applications say like, "Oh, like you said, I think I'd be good at this or I have the skill set to be good with this." Ultimately, the most powerful thing for you guys is to see some kind of proof of concept. And whether that's public or something you've worked on privately, of just saying, like, "I've already done this thing because there's, you know, from an employer standpoint, you guys might be able to bring in a really talented person, but if it requires like six months of like hands-on training and getting you caught up, like that might defeat the purpose of the role in the first place, which is to come on and immediately allow you guys to hit the ground running and scale up your process." -For sure. And I think, I think timing of this is super impactful as well. Like my credentials when, you know, getting a higher ATR five years ago was way different than I think you would need now, just with the evolution of the fantasy football industry and, you know, with props and embedding and just like how much this has proliferated over the last handful of years has really changed the game in terms of, like, the kind of the credentials you need to be hired somewhere. So honestly, a lot of these applications I'm reading, I'm like, "Man, should I even have the job that I have?" Like, there's some great, you know, crazy qualified applicants makes you second guests, you know, all that, how lucky I am to be in this position, for sure. -Yeah, I just had Lord Reeves on After Dark the other night and that's always like a thing that comes up when I talk to him every year. He's like, "Man, these young guns, these people coming up and like, they're constantly pushing me to be better." And he's like, "I'm thankful I have this job and kind of my position, you know, as a veteran in the industry, but man, like it is really, really competitive and it only gets more and more competitive. Sam's going to join us here in a sec, but I guess one more comment on that with this position. I do assume, like, you guys have a lot of the guardrails set up with the projections. You kind of know, you know, where you want to be. I assume, tell me if I'm wrong, that a lot of the job is grinding all the news, all of the nuggets, figuring out how to make these micro adjustments. Or is it more on the technical side? You guys are looking to back test things and look at different correlations and that's what you're looking for. -Yeah, it's, I think it's a little bit of both in terms of one thing I'll say about Taylor KBR, our CEO is, is there is no, no stone, he'll leave on Turner or question on asked. He's, he's probably the most curious person I've ever met. And so, you know, people can apply like for this job, but they might say, hey, I've done this work in the past or like, you know, I'm a full-time data scientist at this point in time. Like, I've done a lot of modeling and back testing stuff. So, it's like, even though you may be hired to help more like tinker with our projections or grind news, there's always facets that can get strung out from the, you know, kind of, I guess, base role at ETR. There's, you know, there's always project, if you have a project set, say, hey, I really want to investigate this, you know, that's, that's always up for grabs as well or open to, open to investment there. But this, this job specifically is more of kind of like the grinding news, tracking, you know, tracking updates from, from teams, injury reports. And then, yeah, being able to tweak like our projections, if needed. And, and a lot of it is, you know, right now it's, it's Jack and I on, on the player inputs and in Leoni and there's been times in recent years where it's like, you know, I'm at, I'm at a wedding or I get sick for a weekend and we need someone to fill in and we don't really have, have a body to fill in. So, it's, it's also kind of like a safety blanket in terms of, like, if anything, if we were to miss time for any reason, that would, that there would be someone that would be able to just step into that role a little bit more seamlessly. Well, beautiful, dank. We're going to bring Sam Sherman on here, fun, chopping it up with you, all kinds of good conversation there throughout this episode. And yeah, check out, establish the edge, those podcasts have been awesome still working my way through them. They're opuses. So I have to, you know, I'm like, two and a half episodes through as I, I worked through it, anything else you want to shout out here before you head out. No, man, this was, this was awesome. Yeah, feel free to follow me on, on Twitter at Mark dank, obviously, those established the edge podcasts. You can hear, yeah, I think, I think we're up to like 15 hours of total content or something at, at this point, through six episodes. We've got two more coming this week, the AFC East and NFC East. We are going to close out, close out that series here this week. So that's, that's been truly awesome. I learned so much. Definitely, if you have the time, how you recommend listening to those, it's, it's been awesome, awesome insight for me and it sounds like the listeners have enjoyed it as well. So, and then, yeah, training camp coming up here soon, just feel free to, you know, head to establish a run, subscribe to our, our, our draft kit. There's, there's tons of good stuff. And there you can find all my work there. We're, I'm going to be starting to do some team preview work as well as I do a kicker and defense article every off season. I know people waiting on, on pins and needles for that. I think we've got, I think we've got Brandon Thorns offensive and our offensive line rankings coming out here soon. So, so tons of great stuff over at ETR. Absolutely. All right. Just drop the handle in the chat at Mark dank. We will catch you later. Mark dank and welcoming to the stage. Mr. Sam Sherman, ready to draft with me. How are you doing on this Monday morning, sir? I'm great. He said to me back on. I caught the end of that conversation with, with Mark. I just, I think I said it last week, but want to say again that those established edge podcasts with him, Jack and Grach have been awesome. So strongly strongly recommend folks. Check those out. For sure. Yes. They are, they're, you know, essential listening here, especially like, you know, if you're drafting teams, even in July, I know we keep, there's only so many more times we can say that, like drafting in August. That's what everybody does. But it's such a great palette cleanser and challenging kind of our, our priors here. Sam, I got us in a draft. That's what we do here. We've got the 112. So we'll be double tapping from this side of the board. I just drafted from the 102 with dank, how you feeling about this spot. Good. I've been liking the back half of the board. I think you either get one of the wider receivers to, to fall, which is kind of fun like Jefferson or, or lamb, sometimes slide back or you can double tap running back, which I think is a good structural start this year. So yeah, I'm enjoying those, those back off starts for sure. Beautiful. Are you starting to ramp up your, your drafting a little bit? Are you kind of still chugging along at your usual pace? usual pace for sure. I still I'm kind of waiting for more news from training camps, preseason, and so on to kick in before I kind of accelerate my draft. So yeah, I've been slowly trickling them in one or two a week. Nothing, nothing crazy. I'm not like you and Crane with you know hundreds of slow drafts. I want some not, not built that way. So it's been been a pretty slow. You know what, I, you know, I haven't quite hit, you know, we say slow draft hell. I know Dave is doing streams over at the solver. He calls it slow draft heaven. I'm not, this is where I'm worried, like because I'm at my desk so much right now and I have my three times in the day where I do it, it's been easy. I'm starting to think like, oh, this weekend, I'm going to the beach and like I have that 2 p.m. window where I know I'm going to be on the clock and 14 drafts or in two weeks we're doing the ship chasing meetup. And I'm like, I know on Sunday we're going to be out on the lake and I'm going to be on the clock in 21. Those are the only spots I'm worrying about. But maybe I just went ahead. Maybe I set the queue. I get the ranks in there and I just trust if I don't have one perfectly hand curated selection, I'll live Sam. I think that's when like I remember specifically two or three years ago, I was golfing one day and then I checked like my slow drafts. I was in like a hundred at a time and auto picked on like 15th.
of them, and I had like 60 teams on the clock while I was out supposed to be enjoying my day golfing. I'm like, you know what? I'm done with this. I'm just gonna do the fast drafts. But yeah, if you plan ahead, like I didn't, you can make a work. Okay, Jefferson. That's right. Might slide all the way. That would be fun. Yeah, let's see what Q1 does here at the 112. Assume he's gonna time out on Jefferson. Yeah. Yeah. I think we talked about this last week, I'm a little bit lower on Genty, so can you go Barclay first and then think about, should I check real quick what we did last week? Yeah, yeah. If you can, if you can do it. I want to see the quick cook and Barclay last week, so, but he's off the board, so we don't have to worry about that. I would go, I'm good with Walker or Genty here. If you want to get Genty on fine with it, I'd personally be Walker. Good with you there, though. No, let's do it. I was just looking at my combo exposure here. I have Genty paired with Barclay a decent amount and not at all with Walker, so let's do Barclay Walker. I mean, this is a fun pairing because there is a wide range of outcomes for these guys who might not catch as many passes as some of these other guys. And yet, the touchdown ceiling is just massive for them. Barclay coming off a year, we only scored seven. I think the year before when he almost hit 2,000 yards, he was at 13 and it's like, man, these guys can swing wildly of like, they look like they should have been the 105 or they look like they should have been at the back end around three depending on how many touchdowns they score. Exactly. Yeah. And I think like, a little bit for me, and I think this is probably what's showing up in the ETR projections as well, because if I'm not mistaken, they have Genty, like, a little bit lower than Barclay, Walker, Henry, just just slightly. I think it's all the same tier. Like you just look at like implied NFL look ahead lines for like the chiefs and eagles. You know, they're in the top both those offenses are in the top 12 in terms of projected points for game at around 24. This is just taking Vegas odds. This is from Sharp football analysis and projecting them forward. Raiders are all the way down at 28th. You know, they're next to teams like Dolphins, Browns, Jets, Cardinals, like in that tier. So that's really it for me. Like I totally get it on Genty, like the receiving ceiling could be a lot higher. You can believe in the offense with Mendoza and Kurt Cousins there as like a solid quarterback too. I can see how it works out. But I'm, I am just a little bit worried with Genty to be get the repeat of last season's kind of Raiders disaster that I don't think that's as likely with these, these other guys. But it's very, it's very close in this tier of running backs, to be honest. Yeah. And then the question just becomes how much do you prefer Walker to a Hampton, to a Chase Brown, to a Henry and it gets into that conversation of do you start mixing up the combos more? Yeah. Or are you sacrificing a little too much that is just extra fancy? I mean, it's hard because I do prefer Genty and Walker. I kind of have a tier break there. But then man, Chase Brown, Derek Henry, it's a, it's a tricky spot in drafts to know how to play it from a portfolio perspective. I agree, like it's, those guys are all, all so close. So I think I've mostly been trying to mix up what I do there, like I'm not trying to end up with James Cook and Barkley over and over and over again, because that would probably be my top two if, you know, they're both available. But yeah, I think that, I think that's the play. I don't, I don't feel super strongly about, you know, coming out way ahead on some of those guys and really low on, on others. It's a good time to shout out the, the solver tool there for, you know, it flagged. Yeah. I'm always pairing Barkley with Genty there, obviously now when I do Barkley and Walker here in the combo tool, it's going to be none because it's the first time I've paired these together. But you can still toggle off see who Walker, you know, I haven't paired Walker or haven't drafted it. Igbuka with Walker at all, which makes sense because I only have two percent Igbuka. But highly recommend taking advantage of this. You can really slice and dice your team and your portfolio as you go along. Yeah, I like that. I didn't see, so it's that's, it's that second column that like orange text that he's like, cool, cool. I like that. That's a fun, fun feature. We'll probably get, ETN's the guy, I guess, who's, who's sliding a bit on the news. I imagine he'll probably come all the way back to us. We'll see, we'll see who else we have here. Are you, quickly, are you reacting much to the, like, Camara extension news, were you already kind of factoring that in Pete? It's funny you say that because I'm going to write about it for the, or let's make these picks here. Okay. Yeah. Kyron and ETN go. So we are by ADP looking at Lad Javante, neighbors, Javante Wilson, Lad by ETR ranks who are your favorites here. Let's go with the water seeker, maybe start with Lad. I think I, I think I kind of wanted to do two out receivers here over, overtaking a third running back. Do you have a strong preference here trying to see if there's tie breakers? I'd probably be like, TET in a vacuum, bottle, I like a lot too. Probably those are my top two guys. Yeah. Yeah. Do you want to, you want to pull up Waddle here at, he's, he's definitely going in this range more and more lately. Yeah. I'm good with Waddle. Let's do Waddle. All right. We can pull Waddle up here. Yeah. And the ETN thing. So it was the classic thing where it's like, I think for what? About the past month, it seemed most likely that Camara was going to stay restructure like basically what happened. It seems like was probably the smart money. And so you think in your head, okay, drafters are bacon that in and they're still content. And that it happens. About ETN's falling, I have been willing to grab him in the early fourth now. I do think it, it complicates the, the upside stuff. I mean, Camara had an 11% target share last year. He was targeted on 16% of his routes. And I also think they, they'll trust him a little bit in the goal line. Like if they're in a hurry up situation and it's like, are they really taking Alvin Camara off the field just to bring in ETN to be the goal line back? I do think it hurts him a little bit. The question is, where's the tipping point where ETN's overvalued undervalued? I don't know if I've squared that yet. Yeah. I think like where, so for me, I totally agree with those points. I think it, it was much cleaner where I'd say like two or three months ago, it seemed very likely that Camara would be gone. I think for like the last six weeks, I've been operating under the assumption that Camara was still going to be around like looking into his contract more that wasn't really an easy out. But I think it should have already been priced in that this was going to happen. So I think like, I don't have a super hot take on ETN. I think where he goes here like late third, early fourth seems like solid value to me. I still think that they paid him enough. Camara looks so washed last year. Is Camara still going to be probably the RB2 and have like somewhat of a role? Yes. I don't think anyone was expecting ETN to have like a CMC level workload anyways. So many of these guys seed touches to an RB2 and I don't think like the name value of Camara, I think is like bigger than like the role he's actually going to have on this team. So yeah, boring take where I think where he went here is probably about right. When I was doing my research on it this morning, the other thing that was kind of interesting to me. So ETN was involved in the passing game last year, but it was 94% of it was on early downs because they would bring liquid Allen in those long down and distance situations. And so then I think you have to unpack, was that a Liam Cohen thing where he was more willing to throw to the back of the downs? Is that going to be the case in New Orleans quite as much? Because if he had a similar role on early downs in the passing game, I think it makes his price tag look a lot better. If he gets pigeonholed more into a rusher, then you're probably asking a lot of the offense for goal line opportunities in big plays. Yeah, that's a good point. It'll be interesting to see, I don't have, I think that the interesting like fall question I'd have would be like, how much did ETN see in in pass down work like the seasons prior to Liam Cohen to try to like tease out a little bit? Was that just like a liquid Allen Cohen thing or was that like something that ETN is like structurally had issues with getting that playing time over the course of his career. But yeah, I think, I think ETN has like always been somewhat like overrated as a patch. Pass catcher and his like prospect profile days, like I don't think it fully translated. But he's still I think like fully capable of you know catching 40 to 50 balls this year. Like I assume he did something similar that last year as well. Yeah. And I think the other thing that's hard with him, it's like, you know, man, if we, because I think we all agree, if there was no concerns about Josh Jacobs, it's like, it's kind of absurd to take ETN over Jacobs. And so now we're going to deal through how do we price the uncertainty with Jacobs? I mean, I think you could even point to Montgomery as an arbitrage Jacobs, two of like, man, the role, the goal line, going to catch some balls like you really have to start to feel really good about some specific elements of ETN's profile to routinely take him over some of those guys. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it does kind of, yeah, it's sort of a long tier of guys like Javante all the way through. Buck, you just went, okay, we're on the clock here. More Rome, Brian Thomas, price by rank, more price, Daniel's Tyson. Let's do Tyson.
we'll grab Tyson here. I do like him. We've been talking a lot about New Orleans. So then you got DJ Moore as the faller. You got Price as the top running back. Or you can just say, I feel like with LAC Denver, New Orleans, I kind of want to wait on quarterback. So like more. Yeah, I would do price. I think I'd do price. Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about the tricky one. Yeah. Yeah. What's your thoughts on him? Yeah. He's tricky. I think like there's been a lot of quotes reports coming out about him being part of a committee, I think, which is like slightly had his ADP falling in the past couple days. I am just kind of like defaulting to a to him being a pretty good pick in this range. Just based on the fact that we're talking about a guy who's a first round pick in NFL draft, I get those concerns with this prospect profile. Still done today. First round pick is great draft capital for running back. He's going to a team that just won the Super Bowl, you know, is going to be projected to win a lot of their games, you know, top top 10, you know, in Super Bowl odds, all of that. So they should be in positive game scripts. And at the end of the day, the running back competition, while there's like some confusing pieces here and there, it's still a very weak running back room. It's George O'Launey, who basically didn't see any significant playing time outside of a couple of games last year, where Scharbernay was hurt. You have a manual, Wilson, career, plotter on the Packers. And then Zack Scharbernay coming off a very late ACL tear, where actually his surgery was a month after his ACL tear. So you look at return to play timelines, like kind of best case scenario, you know, from a normal ACL timeline to be like week 10, week 12, something like that. So it's a really weak competition. And I don't think price necessarily is guaranteed to start the season in a huge role. But I think he really could pull away from the other guys here. I think also like his collegiate production profile has been nitpicked so much. But that in the day, he was sharing a backfield with Jeremiah Love. I think his like a killi's injury he had in college kind of explains why he didn't transfer away from the program while he was undergoing that rehab. So I think the production like can be excused away a decent bit, just by the really strong competition. So yeah, I'm kind of just going back to the fundamentals with him. Good offense, weak competition, first round pick. Like I think you're getting pretty fair value in the sixth round. Yeah, I do too. I think he, you know, we talked to, I don't know, we did this on the fantasy life show done on ship chasing before like if you could know the stat line of one player this year, who would you pick? Jadarian price would be a really good one. I think to know because it would tell you information, probably about sharbs, about the offensive success on the whole, because man, the range of outcomes is so wide because I do think there are scenarios where, again, he's a different player than RJ Harvey, but another guy we were really excited to draft, you know, on a team that was going to run the ball well, have a defined role. And then you kind of see the downside scenarios play out, but there are the scenarios where it is like a one for one replacement for Kenneth Walker and he hits the ground running and you're like, holy shit, they let us get this guy in the early or even sometimes mid six round. So I think for best ball specifically, I am, I'm in at these prices. Obviously, this is in a redraft show. I think he's a lot trickier for redraft and how hard it could be to actually know when to start him when he's constantly facing the early season squeeze and a potential late season squeeze. But I do think you just clackety clack, roll the dice at these prices in best ball. Yep. I think that's a good, good summary. All right. We got the, the seven eight, three running backs, three wide receivers. We could think about some stacking stuff here. Herbert with Lad Rico, Jordan Addison Sutton here as well. I like the Herbert, Herbert call. We're not going to get another chance at him. And would you set up a double stack with Sutton and Waddle, or do you think those guys are kind of negatively correlated? I don't think they're that negatively correlated with Sutton all the way in the eighties here. So I kind of like that. He's taught by ADP, right? Yeah. I don't see anyone else jumping out. So yeah, I don't have a lot of Sutton, but I think with with Waddle. Yeah, I mean, the water seepers in the same team thing. There's like always an element to like their their true probably season long ceiling cases being like a little bit inversely correlated. Like they both can't be top 12 wide receivers. But I think there is something to like where they're their median cases are are probably more positively correlated. If Denver is just playing at offense this year, bone X takes another leap in year three. I think it's totally fine. And yeah, I don't think we're I think like all the the Sutton fall off has been like priced in and accounted for at this point. So I think it's I think it's really fun. Yep. All right, here's the squad so far. We started Barkley and Walker. We come back with three wide receivers. Lad Waddle Tyson, Jadarian price, the running back there in the early six. We stack up Lad with Herbert and then grab Sutton here as well. Yeah, I do always think that's like one of the toughest decisions. I feel like a Metcalfe and Pitman would be another one where you kind of worry of like a man. If Pitman is Rogers Binky and stuff. Does that really hurt Metcalfe? But then you can just as easily spin it and say, well, what if Rogers has a bounce back year? What if the offense is scoring a lot of touchdowns? What if Pitman opens up Metcalf for more one-on-one coverage that he offsets a lack of volume with higher T.D. efficiency and then you just get back to the fundamentals of don't you just want to bet on the offense being good and trust it's going to work out? Exactly. And you can also see like this offense, it's not an offense that is going to use a lot of tight ends like there's not a a big target draw coming from there. The peripheral wide receiver pieces, there's some depth there, but Mim's Sutton. Sorry, sorry, Mim's Franklin and Bryant aren't like massive target owners either. So I think you can see a world where it consolidates a bit on these two guys. So yeah, I like going like I think I lean towards going with the teammate pairings more than avoiding them, especially especially in baseball. Yeah, I think so too. And again, I think you you pick your spots, right? Like we looked at it, he was top available ADP, you know, normally they probably don't line up quite as much just because we pulled up Waddle here. So this is kind of a unique spot to do it where it's probably not one you're going to go out of your way to do. It's probably pretty comparable to like Lamb and Pickens as well, right? I mean, different players and not as good of players, but kind of a similar dynamic where you can certainly see scenarios where they both hit if the offense is good enough. Yeah, yeah, for sure. I guess the question will be here. If we want to do the next thing, we probably have to pull trigger out our next pick, right? For sure. Yeah, I took a glance at it. When we did it ADP 107 for next, we pick at 108. So like that's a clean spot there, no buy, week overlap. So I do think we entertain that. And the other options as far as ADP Wilson, Myers, Kenny Gainwell, Rashad White, Golden, we got the three running backs four wide receivers in Herbert. Yeah, yeah. I like, man, I don't love Michael Wilson, but when he falls to like 110, I'm kind of like, sure, okay, Wilson's gone. So we don't have to have that conversation. I'm going to put next up you to buy us. Yeah, definitely, definitely next. And the other spot is tough. It's basically like where are you at on Kittle right now? Because that would be another if you wanted to get some tight end juice here. We're done with quarterback for now. It's either like Jacobi Gainwell White or Kittle probably. Yeah. I'll probably go to Kobe and just like do the, I know it's not a huge ADP difference, but I'm good. If you want a new Kittle though, I'm good with it. You're, you're called. All right, let's do Kittle. Let's do Kittle. I know you like, I know you like Kittle. So let's, I'm totally happy to grab him. Yeah. Yeah, he's he's one, too. I do really think Kittle's just going to be this slow and steady riser. Yeah, I see that. Yeah. I really think when we continue to get the, and who knows, we've talked a lot about the week one thing. Is he going to take that 19-hour flight to Australia or whatnot? Yeah, yeah. If all of a sudden we're like, yeah, you know, you get that news blurb like Kittle's flying to Australia for this game. It's like, all right, we're not going to have triple digit Kittle anymore. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, the, the Kittle thing is so interesting. There's like the Kiles thing, like my default reaction when I have like a player coming off in a Kiles is always to like want to rule them out. But I guess a couple things like one, there's the reports of his rehab going really well. Apparently the, the tear was either lower or higher in the tendon. Something like that that makes it better. I don't know the details, right? But there's something about the injury that allegedly is more amenable to a recovery. And then also like, I think there's a bit of a positional difference we've seen on these Achilles tears. Like with running backs, it's been really brutal. But with like wide receivers, there's been examples of guys coming back from it and being okay. Demarious Thomas is one. And I think even like Odell like came back for A little bit, uh, there's on the Rams, maybe, in any way, it's like. I don't think we have a ton of data on like tight ends coming back from this injury. Part of me does worry about like kiddle being so reliant on after the catch explosiveness and that being like a challenge with the Achilles but like the part of the game that's just like hey being on the same page with Brock Birdie finding their soft spot in the zone knowing the playbook super well like that part of it I don't think is going to go away even if he loses some explosiveness so I've been generally generally like open open to kiddle around around here um yeah yeah and I you know I twisted the guy's arm to Adam to our FFPC main event team the other day and I think it's a different conversation there where yeah I can see the skepticism of like the 1.5 tight end you know scamming there isn't quite as evident but again on underdog where we know how much touchdowns can swing stuff in just being that dude in the red zone for an offense that should be what top five top six I think you have a lot of room for air at these prices and then you just get the free roll of what if the yards after catch ability does come back sooner rather than later yeah yeah I mean we're taking them next to Travis Kelsey who's not explosive after the catch and I wasn't that so it's not like he's uh yeah price up too high um so Tyler still being on the board is interesting oh he just goes he just goes no yeah I was just going to give the quicks table set so we have Herbert uh with Lad we have Bonix with both Waddle and Sutton we got those three running backs Barclay Walker price along with Maconkey Waddle Sutton we did add on Jordan Tyson there in the mid-range and then Kiddell our first tight end so we're pretty balanced here positionally which is kind of our MO when we draft together by rank we have a couple tight end values I'd also just float on a Herbert team like the Keaton Mitchell thing right around ADP could be a fun ad to compound the Herbert bet but what catches your eye here I like that call I don't have a lot of Keaton um he's been he's in rising I know ETR is a bit lower on him but I think makes sense on this team and then could you toggle the wide receivers of who else is around it's digs hunter Omar Cooper Mcmillan do you still like the digs thesis I think I go concave over it can get over digs the tight end yeah um just take the rank value I don't know man like that I guess I'll be honest I've been totally plugged into the news on digs there there's been like other allegation off-field allegations at this point right that have that have surfaced am I am I correct on that yeah I believe so I'm honestly not up to date on it yeah I've heard a lot of analysis that it's actually gonna impact anything so I don't know if it's a blind spot for me or not but I just like similar with the Jacob stuff I just always default and nothing's gonna happen to these guys and yeah it's gonna sign somewhere in the next couple of weeks and he's gonna shoot up two rounds at ADP yeah I think that's like the right I think the only thing that makes me like a bit more nervous is when a guy is not on a team already that's just like another PR hurdle that the team has to worry about like if digs was already signed I don't think I would care about the the simple suits or whatever he's facing but I don't know part of me is just like does a team not want to deal with with the PR of that but yeah wind digs it's inevitable like as long as your certain digs is gonna play in that I felt this year it's almost like guaranteed closing line value to take the party is now so you're just dodging the the slight risk that he's retired or whatever and I will say you know I think you can make the argument either way so concave you know a pretty nice upside swing at tight end in that range can you arbitrage you know digs production later with the Jawan Jennings obviously you have the duties the cups etc you could probably say the same thing for concave like can you get a gatsden coming back can you get you know a Sid Dean so I think it's probably close from a 2v2 but man kittles concave at these prices it's kind of like the well what if it's you know you could dream on these two profiles hitting and basically getting elite tight ends at non elite prices 100% and like what I like again tight ends sometimes then the day if you don't hit on the elite ones it's just about are are the tight ends on offenses that score touchdowns and you lock box into touchdowns at the right week betting on a bills and 49ers player to do that is as good a way to do that as any so yeah that that's where it's like you know you're thinking about concave versus like I don't know I say a likely or chiga conco whatever other guys that are going semi in that range it's like what is the weekly touchdown production for the oh I was thinking the conco is in the tight ends in the commanders and asks that's a bad example but for the giants for as they likely verse first the bills that's just you know a huge huge difference all right 2 4 4 2 like I said pretty balanced here and you know I don't think there's anything we need to do at quarterback um I don't know if this is like a Brenton strange juwan johnson range for us so I'll filter to running back in wide receiver um mick millen Jennings Jonah Coleman's charbonne florenoid bigsbee pretty pretty gross range uh to be honest yourself there's any favorites I mean now's the time to uh to go and get them yeah I like bigsbee oh I was gonna say if Willis somehow fell all the way I was going to say he would be semi interesting um I like bigsbee I like florenoi I like debo um I like struggling although that's a bit a bit early for him what about tray Harris with the Herbert stuff is that oh yeah I didn't I didn't notice that that's a good call uh what's his ADP 166 yeah he's not coming back uh I haven't sorted by ADP right I'm debo in the q are you good with debos the first one yeah let's do wait uh do tray Harris if you can get it in but debo spawn ah almost I almost had the switch in yeah I'll get I think we can just double tap with wide receiver here I think yeah it's I like I like defaulting to the stack that'd be my choice you're call though yeah I I tray Harris is one of those guys I'm really only taking him on yeah Herbert teams and I also do think um you know we're playing this as lad being the guy we get we could get into the thing are we being overly precise with the the qj stuff again but I like the idea of like this is a bet on the qj stuff being too frothy and tray Harris actually plays more than the market is is assuming yeah yeah tray here I don't know like there wasn't that much promising in in his year one profile to me looking back at it but he did get some more playing time towards then of the year and he was a really prolific producer his senior year of college or this final year of college a much of his senior year so he's kind of been like I closed my eyes and bet on the year to break out type of profile on the right roster so yeah I guess the only question is if we I was thinking maybe the structural error there is we might get boxed out of the fifth running back we we like but I think there'll be someone coming back that will be will be okay and I would say with this base I mean Barkley Walker start price in the early six and then Mitchell like I think we're primed for to to have skipped that ranger you know and you mentioned big speed we had Barkley so I don't even know if we would have wanted that oh yeah good call so I think we were okay I mean the one the interesting guy like I never take him but it's like on a bonix double stack team do you take Jonah Coleman there yeah I've been I've been pretty out on Coleman to me like when we have these day three running backs that just like we have no idea if they're gonna have a role I just think like it's too much of a projection to take them in this range at this point I get like if this was a FFC team where we can cut Jonah Coleman a hundred percent sign me up but like it kind of reminds me of like the commodity but all rookie year pick which to be fair I was I was in on and that that failed miserably so I I wanted to see like a little bit more from from Coleman before I draft him he's been pretty off my board uh-oh uh-oh I'm reading the chat do you have your Canada goose jacket nearby because I feel us getting pulled into a collar vortex right now as we speak oh my god it's getting silly out there high bat down the hatches there's a collar bear coming for us these these collar heads man oh my god I blame Pat and and sac religious for this this collar stuff this is I blame them to start but then this dude Daniel poppers coming out here writing a daily love letter to Charlie Kohler as well just emboldening them with this take and we're never gonna be able to escape the collar boar tax oh now it's uh I mean I guess if if you like will disly as the upside case for your later on tight end then you can take Charlie Kohler someone's gonna stop always remember that one game it gets the Cardinals who have been the biggest tight-in funnel in the past 10 years where he had like 12 targets again then against them you can not take that away from will disly no um what do you do it I grabbed Bryce Young at this price in my first draft I mean 158 ADP he does finally go
I would have taken them. Yeah. This kind of looks like a decent spot for a third Titan. There's also Jeremy Bernard Ridley, Judy Cup, all the ETRS plays. Running back, you're looking at Ray Davis, Kateron Allen. What do you think? I like, um, Barner, a tight end. Oh, shit. Oh, shit. I didn't get it. A Barner was buried. We got Bernard. You got your, you want to get Bernard was going to be, yeah, Barner's buried in the T.R. ranks, huh? He's, uh, yeah, yeah. No, Bernard was going to be going to be one of the water severs that I like there too. So this is good. Do you want to do AJ Barner here, though? Yeah. Let's, let's do Barner. Let's do Barner. Okay. Hey, chat. I mean, nothing would be more leg up than taking Kohler as your tight end for. So let's keep the light on for that here as shady drums up Kohler Express. Hey, look, you guys, I, what happened to Pete's nimble's fingers? You know, I've, I've been pretty dialed in. I, I missed this one here. Honestly, I'm going to go ahead and throw ETR into the bus because I was like looking for the tight ends on the screen based on the rank. I know that I gotta, I think they have done the Seattle, um, productions podcast series already. So I'll have to go back on the, on the Barner stuff. But I, I don't know, it, but for Barner for me is just like, and people can totally not, not trust my ability to, to watch film. But I, I think he's just like a really good player. Year three tight end with like good enough peripheral stats and year one and year two. Nothing like that really makes him pop. Um, but I think he's just like a talented guy that doesn't get more involved in the offensive season. Part of me, like why I'm really into Shaheed and like a little bit lessso Barner is like, I think the JSN 40% target share games, like I just think opponents are going to be ready for that this year. I still think JSN is an awesome pick not saying he's, he's a bad top six pick. But like, it's rare that you see that insane of target shares. And it's even rare that you see that repeated season over season. And I think like there's, it's just going to be a little bit more spread out to the Shaheeds, the, the Barners this year. So I'm kind of in on the Seattle peripheral pass catchers this season. Yeah. No, and there were certainly weeks to where we saw that play out. It was kind of like Dr. Jekyll and Hyde where we almost got roped in. I can't even remember the exact week. But like Barner just went nuts and you're like holding out like, can we get more of this? And then they would just find other ways to win. I wonder if there is part of it too with kind of like the Rishi Shaheed thesis where it's like they want to think about their offense a little differently this year without Kenneth Walker. Who knows, maybe Price does stumble a little bit. Obviously that thesis doesn't play well on this specific team. But if they do throw more in Shaheed and Barner are more involved in the passing game, you can see real ceiling for for them within this offense. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I just think it's like regression to some degree. I think has to come to to JSN's target share. And I think the past volume, I think also is likely to go up just without dominant that defense was last year. Like those things are less likely to repeat. So yeah. So I guess we're looking out here ideally a fifth running back if we find someone we like enough to take. Yeah. We're at a 2473. It is probably running back in wide receiver. You know, we have the the de facto, do you put Pat Bryant triple one with Bonix? That's always the question. Yeah. I would put him in the queue. Let's put Brian the queue. I like I like Bateman here as well as another guy I would throw in there running backs. Well, we do have as far as week 17. We obviously have Kenneth Walker opposite chargers. I've been doing a little tycoon Thornton. He could be in the mix here. Denver. It's New England. If you think booties still can be be on the team. Yeah. I'm going to put Brian at the top of the queue. Giddens, James, Black, Ty Johnson, P Ryan, Mike Washington. I mean, it is rough, man. Yeah. Holonies. Holonies gone. I guess I was actually thinking doubling up Seattle is in terrible. No, he is here. I actually don't get that thought. I kind of like it just to like give us some some early season production in the case that that price is slow starter. I think doubling up is fine with the Seattle guys here. I don't I don't mind that at all. And I was actually talking through that with dank because we had a spot where we drafted a beach on Jeremiah love team. And then we're on the clock. And it's like we need riding backs. The best available, of course, is Brian Robinson and Tyler Algier. And we're kind of working through, you know, the the Brian Robinson behind beach on it's like, how does this work out without a beach on injury? At least with the Algier, you know, the phrase I always use is could you get the passing of the baton moment? I see that pretty clearly with a price in Olaunee. If all the reporting is true that Olaunee is going to be that guy to start the season, it could be rough sailing for price. If you could get those eight, nine points of game while price heats up, I think this doesn't feel like a handcuffed situation so much as, you know, being able to get those production at different points in the season. Yeah, agreed. And I also think like the handcuff thing like I the people who doing the Sims could could say this is true better than I could, but I've always thought there is something to the like two players that are inversely correlated, but on the same roster actually being like a benefit in a basketball format. Like what when you know Jardarian prices is zero because of injury, it's probably best that you have George Halani on your roster as opposed to having some other random handcuffs say, I don't know, Jordan, Jordan James, because all these times like advanced out of these pods, you're really just looking for like 10, 12, 14 points from your flex player from your RB2. So I think there is some piece of that where like the handcuff element in in this type of basketball tournament like has has some value. But it's yeah, I guess we haven't really seen like examples of like people who have won these big basketball tournaments. It's never been the case where they've handcuffed the running backs and that's worked out, but I do think it's it's something that could but a benefit. All right, dude, this team is in the books 2583. You know, some of the picks late, you know, we're a little tricky and I know we were kind of paralyzed around the 1314 picks. But man, I like this squad. Yeah, bark barkly walker up top. You just take the running backs. Come back with McConkey in Waddle. I think both guys that could outperform their draft costs this year get a high upside rookie with Tyson and price there at the 56 turn. Come back, get the Herbert stack, then go all in on Denver with Sutton and Nix. I kind of twist your arm a little bit into a kittleshare at 109, Keaton Mitchell. The missile as part of the Chargers bet can cade there our second tight end. Then we start rounding out the wide receivers, Debo, hoping for serving free agent CLB, Trey Harris, with Herbert, Jeremy Bernard because it's always Jeremy Bernard. Someone in the chat said, don't let Sam bully you on Pittsburgh players this draft. Look, I willingly take Jeremy Bernard at every draft. You can't blame that on him. We do find our way to AJ Barnard, despite a misclick by me initially, Pat Bryant, a guy, Sam and I will draft just by himself, much less when we have Bo Nix. And then of course, George Halani as we talked through the running back dynamics, how do you think we did here? I like this team a lot. It's two pretty heavily stacked teams in the Broncos and Chargers. And then I think a bit of a bet on Seattle as well with the running backs and an AJ Barnard. So, yeah, put it all of our eggs in a couple of baskets. I think that's oftentimes what you're trying to do in Best Ball is get a couple things, right? And hopefully they can drag the rest of the team forward if those offenses over perform. And I think, yeah, just structurally, very, very solid as well. I think, but whenever I'm drafting from the back half of the board and you get those two running backs early, it is just so, so easy to make the rest of the draft work. So, having that barkly and walker thing at the start, I think, made this team come together. I saw this hit and tweet. Yes, a good one. Yeah, we should talk about it goes. Hayden says not a great explanation for Bownecks being QB9 in fantasy points per game in 2024. That was his rookie year, QB9 in fantasy points per game in 2025. They add Jalen Waddle and now he's QB14 for 2026 ADP. And man, like, and again, this is just, you know, a little bit of, you know, anecdotal stuff here. But man, like when we played the Battle Royale stuff this past season, like Bownecks had like truly weak winning scores and showcased a ceiling that only a few of these guys, like outside of the Jalen Daniels and Josh Allen's have. And then you give him this weapon. It is really exciting, like everything's there. Like you don't really have to like stretch. It's not wish casting. It's like, he's already showcased the ceiling. And now let's give him his first legit, legit wide receiver. I don't know what it is, Bownecks. Like I think part of it is people remember him for who he was in college and was just kind of like a very boring, somewhat underachieving college quarterback who was around for a while. So I think people are less excited about, you know, the year three breakout in the same way they are excited about other other young quarterbacks. So I think, yeah, I've been Taking
next this year, I think I'm kind of capitalizing on that lack of enthusiasm for them because I do think the, I think the waddle thing is just a perfect fit in, in this offense. They've really been kind of missing a separator guy who can win downfield to compliment the sort of clasher red zone threat in Portland, Southern. They've, they tried to make all these other guys work. Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, haven't, haven't really get it done. And I think there's ways that waddle can really open up this entire offense this year. Yeah, I mean, the chat bring up a good point of like trying to figure out why, why has this happened? And it's probably this residual anchoring based on the ankle injury, fear, patent telling everyone is ankle is cooked. I always remember, because I went to that game against the bills and, you know, the Broncos wad and, you know, you're at the bar after it all of a sudden like a hush goes through with the crowd as everyone's checking. They just heard bonics is out for the rest of the season as they head to the AFC championship game. But I don't know everything I've heard as far as health themes like full steam ahead. I haven't seen a single concerning report about bonics. And again, going back to the, you know, reading between the lines, both my homes and nicks, the NFL schedules Broncos Denver Monday night football opener to kick the season off. Are they going to schedule a game where you're not going to have those. I've kind of all, you know, and then we get back to, well, is he going to be fully healthy? Is he going to run as much? But this actually gives you a little bit more room for air, even if he isn't rushing as much at the beginning of the season. Well, now we have a really good three wide receiver set for him to him to use. Yeah. And I haven't heard anything on on that as earning reports by now. So yeah, maybe like an under discussed injury. Like it's not being talked about at all in the same way that all these other guys, the running backs got about judkins, et cetera, are being being talked about. But I kind of think it's a situation where no news is good news with with next. Yeah, man, I like this build to the, I think you and I a lot of times draft the three quarterback teams. And yet this one is broke perfectly to get Herbert and Nicks correlated, but both at value, we didn't even really have to force it. Yeah. And what I do, like, I think like I normally, I mean, this is a total borderline case with Herbert Nicks. You don't need to force the three quarterback. I'd say like more than 50% of the time with these two guys, I'm still probably getting a third, but it's close. I do think like what's fun when you don't get three quarterbacks on on this type of build is we stacked multiple pass catchers with the quarterback. And I think that that gives you like the, I think part of the benefit of three quarterback is to get that like ping pong effect where your different stacks can go off in different weeks. We can still kind of get that with just the two quarterbacks because we played it with like Nicks and Sutton and Waddle Herbert with Maconkey and Keaton and Trey Harris, right? So we have that sort of versatility built in with the two quarterback stack. Yeah, it's funny too because this is kind of similar to even the draft I just did with Dank where we were on the other side of the board. And you see here I pulled up the solver report, you know, ADP value minus 39.3. This is a lot of times what happens when you're on one of the far ends of the board. And, you know, scooping the values a lot easier to do in the middle, you kind of have to make selections that make sense for the team. And so you can see here we were slightly ahead of ADP on all of our running backs. And slightly ahead of ADP on a lot of our wide receiver selections as well. And yet I think I'm okay with that slight sacrifice for how heavily correlated this is around both the team bets and even the week 16, week 17 stuff. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, and I didn't that's that's always tricky when you're at the turn to like you often don't get a chance to get get the big bell. I found in general this year, Peter, I don't know how you feel like I feel like last year, two years ago, three years ago, part of my edge was just like taking the guys who fall like two rounds, three rounds past ADP just like randomly. I feel like this year that just doesn't happen as much as an underdog. It's very rare. You get like the huge ADP values. So I've been kind of bombed in how it seems like drafters are more, I don't know, rigorous in taking ADP values compared to what they used to. Yeah, and again, it's probably a byproduct of the drafters right now. The drafters in these kind of rooms in August will get more go get your guys will also get way more over reacting to. Yes. Like, yeah, like as an example, like say a report came out today that's like, you know, digs is talking with the dolphins right now and everyone just gets afraid and like digs falls to pick 160 in a draft. You know, like you'll get things like that that happen that I feel like we just haven't had a ton of. But yeah, like you said, I think it's being on the turn to it forces you to think less about value and more about like what does this team actually need right now. Yeah, or you get the like the classic is like the training camp report. We're like there's some, you know, fourth tier beat reporter who's like all vegetarian prices like down on the field. Like they're bringing out a stretcher and then you find out like two hours later he had cramps and he's, you know, he's giving back a practice the next day. You'll get a lot of that too. So yeah, maybe I just need to be patient with getting those huge values. What was the, you know, I think thinking back on interesting decision points in this draft, I guess one of the interesting ones and maybe not a huge factor on this. But like Jordan Tyson versus DJ Moore, where DJ Moore was the faller. I think ETR ranks still even had more ahead of Tyson. I mean, I was with you. I like Tyson there, but it is that's another tough spot. It's like, do you take the DJ Moore value and you pick up, you know, plus four to five spots? Or do you reach for a guy you like a little bit more? Yeah, that one for me honestly, like I've done, I think in the last like five or six drafts I've done with you and Pat on stream. I've gotten DJ Moore like three times. So that was just like DJ Moore fatigue for me. I think like and if I wasn't, if I was doing a much higher volume of drafts and I didn't have that problem, I probably would just take Moore there, but I feel like I've taken him a lot recently for a player. I don't really believe in. I just feel a bit better. Like I think, man, the upside, I get why like ETR has more rank where he is. Like I think the upside case for him is quite strong in the bill's offense, weak target competition. But I just feel better about like Tyson's overall, overall profile. But yeah, I agree. That was thousand interesting spot. We definitely could have could have gone in different direction there. Yeah, I mean, we're obviously, you know, picking, picking knits to an extent there. And I think it's just like, you know, the nice thing too with the Chargers and Denver is like when you do have some stack options of guys where, you know, I'm probably not taking that much. Trey Harrison, Pat Bryant now just by themselves and yet with these two, it makes a ton of sense there. Yeah, I think this worked out and I think, you know, you had a decent amount of tight end options there when we took Barnard, but with the Seattle thing, and again, just building out another team level bet. Someone in the chat mentioned too, part of the thesis with the Barnard stuff for a while there was there was a little bit of Tosh push equity that they had him doing that. So maybe we get a little more of that this year? I don't know. Yeah, no, I was looking that up the other day, I think on a stream with Pat, I think he had like 14 carries last season. Yeah, let me, let me, wow, it was either 10 or 14. Let me pull it up. Okay, 10 carries for 14 yards is what it was. You had one, one touchdown on a Tosh push last year. So that's, yeah, that's like a real, a real thing for him. Like, well, it really mattered that I probably not, but like, it's good to have a call, a full of touchdowns added on to his upside case for the season. So I don't expect them to go away from that this year, even with the new offensive coordinator. But, yeah, we'll see. Overall, yeah, but overall, this was, this was a fun team. I'm, I kind of like the depth at all, all the positions, which, which is fun. I don't have a lot of Herbert either. I, I feel it's good to get, get a Herbert team into the portfolio. I've been missing out on him for whatever reason. All of our teams that we draft start to like blur together. I was trying to find this was the team we drafted two weeks ago, where we started Cook Barkley from a similar spot over here. We did do lad. This one, we did Alan with DJ Moore. We could have, price was off the board in this one. So we did Rome craft. So we were kind of in a similar spot, but got funneled to a pretty different build overall. We did a lot of there as well. Polani. We're stuck in up. Polani. Yeah, that's funny. But yeah, not a lot of duplicates, even though it's out of the same, same spot. So that's, yeah, that's good. Anything else like on your, your drafting wish list right now, you know, I mentioned, you know, a couple guys like, you know, trying to get some more George Kittle right now. Is there any guys where you do feel like their price is going to rise that you're trying to pack some bags with? Yeah, I've been, to repeat a player I've said earlier, I've been really heavy on on Rashid Shaheed. And I think he's been, he's been kind of steadily rising. I think we're going to like a big thing for him, right? We'll be preseason, snaps data. If he's ahead of Cooper Cup in in two waters, he resets, which I think it is current ADP people are like, hasn't it about that or worried about that? I think that'll send him up. And there's been just a pretty steady drum beat with him about planning.
to have him more involved in the offense, so I could see him shooting up, you know, there are 15, 20 picks. And then there's like some more speculative guys, like Marshawn Lloyd and Jaden Blue, who I think like have potential to rise a ton, but also have potential to go to zero. So I've been, I've been hedging on those guys a little bit, but Lloyd has been the one over, over blue that I've been leaning into just with like, a little bit of a Jacob's uncertainty, tacking on to his upside case. So, yeah, there's a couple of names I mentioned there. Before we let you go, Sam, can you move your head to one side or the other so people can see their, your bike there, they were really disappointed in our kids. (laughing) - Bike's still there, bike hasn't moved, but. - What is it, what are these days? You need to find a way to just like hang it from the ceiling, just to keep everybody on their toes? - Well, we'll fight, yeah, we'll get an easter egg going at some point for the bike crew. - All right. - I got to jump. Pete, thanks. - Yelp. - This is fun, I'll use you back here next week. - Sounds good, man, yet at Sherman underscore FFB, follow Sam and I assume you got, are you back in the Vat's Fair saddle here this week with Pat as well? - Yep, yep, Thursday with Pat, 530 Eastern, we'll be doing the Vat's Fair stream. So, look forward to seeing anyone is interested there, but otherwise, I'll see you next week, Pat, are Pete. - Beautiful. - Yeah. - Pat, Ed, Pete, peace, and without further ado, I will not forget, do not say a word, Pat, do not say a word, our next guest, welcoming to the state. - Cuba, Korean, patty, millions, peacock, Pat. - Pat, Korean on the ones in twos. - Are you kidding me? Can I hear you still already? ♪ 98 yards to the fucking house against Carolina ♪ ♪ And we can ♪ - All right, there he is. Pat, do you, are you okay with getting welcome to the stage just to have to vamp and talk to the chat while I could go to the bathroom here? - Yeah, I mean, what are we talking about? 'Cause there's no topic. What is this? - You want a topic? - Do you want a topic? - I come on as a guest and now I'm contestant, what's going on here? - All right, this is what you need to do while I'm gone for 45 seconds. I want you to list off all of the official nicknames and puns surrounding Charlie Colar just so everybody has it updated for their sheets. - All right, Kohler Vortex is probably the best one. 'Cause I think that can apply to Charlie Colar. Can apply to the whole conundrum we find ourselves in where we're talking about a guy who even the bulls don't think is gonna have some amazing season, but could have some utility in basketball compared to the total zeros. The Kohler Express, which I think it would be fair to say, leg up is on right now. What's the other one? Oh, the Kohler Bear, of course. Kohler Bear is, you know, I'm a little torn on, 'cause does I mean your bearish? Are you a Kohler Bear? Is he the Kohler Bear? Unclear. Kohler Bear is famously dangerous, you know, so being a Kohler Bear could be quite bullish for Charlie Kohler. That one confuses me a little bit. Diet Kohler. Who is Diet Kohler? Dave and Joku, maybe, that could be bad. Kohler heads will prevail. That sounds like Coke. If you find yourself saying Kohler heads will prevail, and you're not getting there. - That's just the rest of the show. I was thinking it is funny that, you know, if you're to have bearish, Kohler bearish in there, and then also I was thinking polarize. Like he is this now polarized figure here. - What about by Kohler? - Zach's been calling himself by Kohler recently. (laughing) - Exactly, Kohler curious as well. All right, man, how are we doing here? Have you been ripping drafts over the weekend? How do you handle, 'cause you are a slow draft, maven, how do you handle it? Like when you're out on the weekend, and you guys are out, you're walking along the beach or whatever, and you realize I'm on the clock in 20, are you okay getting autoed? Are you just at peace with that? Because you live your life. So how are you pulling this off? - So this is what I did. So my parents are in town. We went to a little town called Julian, which is kind of, it's like an old mining town. Yeah, they got pies, a little apple crumble pie, quick delicious cinnamon ice cream, the little barbecue. So I do the drafts before we leave. I get down to zero, now I got seven hours, almost eight hours, you know? And then you get on the road, get up there, you have a nice little day, get the baby down for the nap, take up a computer, get the hotspot going, but get through all the drafts, and now you're good, I'm good 'til night. So you can do 'em in three windows as long as you got, this is where I think once you get up to about 400, and especially if you're anywhere near 500 slows, then it starts to become a little oppressive to try to get through it in three windows like that. But if you've got somewhere in the 300s or lower, you can get them all done. Again, you know, this is an advantage of the sidekick, I'm just like in there going, you know, just getting the picks in, doing a little bit, you know, many check in on some of the teams. But I gotta go. - Well, how about this one? - Riddle me this. In less than two weeks, we're gonna be in Austin for the ship chasing meetup. You know, Saturday will be drafting. People have their laptops and stuff. Okay, that's doable. But then Sunday, we're gonna be out on the lake on Lake Travis. Are you just making sure you've cleared the decks in the morning on the laptop before you head out to buy you enough time until you're back from the lake? Is that the point? - Yes, eight hours. You know, I can do it. Now, I think Pacific time helps me out too, 'cause the three hour overnight hits earlier for me as well. So we'll see, I guess what, it'll be central time in Austin. So that might make it a little trickier. But yeah, I'm assuming we won't be on the boat for eight hours, right? - Well, I might keep you there and then say Pat, how do you deal with this situation? You're gonna be held hostage on the boat. How does Mr. SlowDraft handle this spot? You're jumping overboard and swimming to shore, to try to find a computer. - I think I just thought it out of this. I'd go in on my phone, find the big dogs and the bulldogs and anything slow, puppy or lower. I think I'd just go with God on that. But I don't have the left up. - All right, Pat, we are in a basketball mania draft. This is my 91st BBM. How many BBMs are you at right now? All right, I think I've got 60ish done. Not halfway there, but yeah. - All right, 109 here, we got the sidekick up. I will get the draft board here. And yeah, 109, what? We're typically looking at Justin Jefferson range here, CDLAM, potentially, is that what you've been doing? - Yeah, CDLAM, I'd generally been taking, I have broken ties to Jefferson over LAM at times. So I really like Jefferson, but I mean, Taylor will probably be here as well. Oh no, never mind, please go. - It is, it is LAM in Jefferson here. Let's see what these guys are very close to me. - Yeah. - I'm fine with either. - All right, I have way more LAM than Jefferson. I do like LAM more than Jefferson, but let's go ahead and maybe till, the 12% versus 6% feels a little too lopsided. - Yeah, and I wonder if Jefferson is gonna flip LAM because it has gotten really tight. And I thought maybe that was gonna happen, like maybe three or four weeks ago it hasn't. And so now I'm just taking LAM typically, 'cause I'm a little underweight LAM compared to Jefferson. But it's like one of those ones where I didn't, I was just kind of taking Bijana Gibbs roughly at my 101s and 102s and then Gibbs flipped Bijana. And now I wish I'd taken more Gibbs at the 102. - Right. - So I'm just trying to make sure like between those two guys, I wanna end up pretty even on both. So I probably, that's what I'm trying to do. That's what I'm trying to accomplish. Kind of walker here is pretty nice. - Yep, yep, I was just letting the sidekick refresh. Hampton goes, so yeah, it's Walker and then you're to the Chase Brown and H&N tier, but definitely good with Walker here. - Yeah, the guy sometimes pull up as Bowers, just 'cause I think he's such a potential smash, but Walker, I've come around on Walker, get him out at the pass catching potential for him in this offense. - Yeah, and it's, I mean, nice to get him with Jefferson here. I mean, London gets pulled up, so that gets us, maybe a slightly more unique combo than normal just with Walker being kind of now a fixture up here in the early second. Have you been getting much Chase Brown? I feel like he's like probably the least talked about guy in round two, at least of all these running backs. I don't really know what to do with him fully. - Yeah, Chase Brown, I'm not, I haven't been as in on Chase Brown historically and I'm not super in on him now. We're not like hard fading Chase Brown or anything, but I believe I am underway. Yeah, I'm at like 4% Brown, so I'm a bit underway. He's not someone I'm really aware of.
prioritizing, and I'm kind of more so taking him when he falls. And he is the type of guy where if it's like Chase Brown or Bowers, I'm like, yeah, I think I'm going to take Brock Bowers. It's just, it's hard for me to see how like Chase Brown unlocks another element to his game. He's, you know, it's very kind of Kyrony sort of Javante E. He's a better player, but he's not awesome. So it's just one of those, it's just one of those profiles that I think you want to be a little bit price sensitive on. He fits better in Bestball. He fits better in kind of this hyper fragile mode that I find myself in a decent amount. But Walker has the profile, like you think about Walker, Hampton, Barkley. They have, I think, much higher, like kind of talent ceilings and where like talent meets opportunity kind of thing. You're like, okay, I mean, we've obviously seen it with Barkley several times. Hampton could be in an awesome offense, second year player. Walker's explosive, catches the ball, better, basically every year of his career. Now joins the Chiefs. You know, I don't know, like, it's kind of status quo stuff with Chase Brown who's a good player, but he's not, he's not in the lead talent. Yep. So we start Jefferson Walker here. I think the thing that's fascinating about Brown, right? It's like, we all have that year where we were targeting him the Zach Moshe year. He dusts him. He's like a huge hit relative to cost. And then he jumps in that. And Sean's talked about this over the years. The kind of unheralded prospects that smash that then jump up into a really expensive range. Those have been the guys that can really burn you kind of chasing the new elevated costs. Then Brown kind of pays that off again, the following year. And now it's like, okay, they're not drafting anyone. Are we really we can make this pick here and then talk through that? ETN an interesting one with him falling. You also have Kyron, Javonte here. Do you want to play the ETN fall or just scoop them up here? I'm okay playing in as a fall if you want. Sure. Because we're not. We might, yeah, he could easily come back. That's been kind of to see what happens. I kind of just like seeing where where he goes. He went at like the four one in my draft before. But yeah, just real quickly on the the brown thing as we take Kyron there of just being like, I feel like he keeps kind of passing the test or you know, beating the allegations, so to speak. And the brown seem really confident or the bangles seem very confident in him. So I'm also like, what are the can we throw out the prospect profile relative to these guys at this point? Like is his NFL body will work enough to hang our hats on? I mean, I think it's enough to hang your hat on from him being like the clear number one there. And there's really not much competition for Chase Brown. Like he's he's going to own that backfield. You know, Somajipi Reiner, Taj Brooks isn't going to be that guy, but he's just not been like over the last years at 1.06, 1.09 yards per out run. So he's not been an efficient runner or receiver, excuse me. ETN does come back. Let's do it. Yeah, man, I love being able to play golf of those guys there. But yeah, go go back on this and we'll touch on it after. Yeah. So he's not been efficient as, you know, a receiver in an offense where you would you would expect that to be like, you know, easy enough if he had that ability. And he's a good rusher. He's not really like it's very it's very kind of like irony where it's like, you know, he's got the ability to have like some efficient kind of chunk gains. But he's not he doesn't have like that kind of top end explosiveness. Yeah. And so it becomes a volume base profile, which I think with a guy who's like, not amazing, you know, is a little bit more fragile. And, you know, it's Josh Jacobsy in a way, which Jacobs kind of keeps paying off. We've tried to fade Jacob sometimes successfully, sometimes not successfully over the years. And he's younger. So you do have that. But it's just it's one of those things where there is a point at which that running back profile becomes dangerous just on its own, like even if you can't identify why this player would see less volume or, you know, like who would take it? It's just like those types of guys can can flame out like really hard for the price. And it's not like they produce zero. But it's like, you're getting like 13, 14 PPR points per game in the early second round. That sucks. And the opportunity cost is, you know, really high at running back or at well, yes, at running back, but also tight end, wide receiver. And so kind of a classic silent killer downside profile to me and hard to see like, how does he have the legendary ceiling when he hasn't shown the receiving hasn't shown the breakway? He could maybe just score an ungodly amount of touchdowns, but the receiving weapons are so strong there that even that and chase is like so good after the catch and all of that. It's like a little bit tougher for me to see them just like handing it to chase Brown, you know, three times inside the five every time they get down there. So it's not that I'm completely out, but it is, I mean, I will say like in the main event, I don't expect to be really taking chase Brown. It is more of a best ball play and I'm underweight in basketball. Yeah, I don't envision us getting him a ton there. We did go with Kyron and ETN and we see kind of a big run on running backs that hasn't necessarily been the norm at this point in the draft. So we do have options here, you know, DJ Moore, Christian Watson, Carnell Tate, sidekick likes Tate Lamar here as well. What do you think? I like Tate too. And then we potentially get another receiver or maybe Tyler Warren or potentially Daniels coming back. But I think Tate is the priority there for me. Talk to me about Tate over Watson. I don't think that's a click that I've made yet. Why would should we take Tate over him? I think we think about the end of the season and what Tate has the potential to be is like the clear number one on an offense and a downfield threat where I think Watson has the ability to be maybe like the 1a and a downfield threat. But in a lot of cases, I think he's like not really the one because you have craft and read. He's not got a target share like commensurate with a true number one. There's maybe a better way to put it. Even if he's got like technically the highest target share of the of the packers. Daniel seems good to me. Yeah, I mean, I basically in this spot do exactly what the kick suggests here. I'm either grabbing price as my third or fourth running background. Grabbing Daniels where it got super flat at wide receiver. So I'm good with Daniels here. Yeah. So with Tate, it's like you have, you know, he was the fourth overall pick. He was a I think an underrated prospect really giving kind of the discourse around it being like a weak draft class and like what he really gone this high. Like he would have gone ahead of Brian Thomas. And the Brian Thomas draft, you know, I don't know if he would have flipped around with Dune's A or not. So maybe he's not, you know, top 10 in that class. But he's he's like a pretty damn good prospect and would have been drafted highly. And like you just don't go for so for all if you're not a good wide receiver prospect. So, you know, the upside for him in a in an offense like that has a Jefferson or a chase or something. He'd be the number two there. You know, Jeremiah Smith was the number one over him at Ohio State. But Smith's like kind of look on like the second coming a Julio Jones. Like I don't think that's a like a real negative. And he was he had a breakout 30% dominated rating last year alongside him. So I think the upside for him in this situation is potentially limited by Kim Ward. If Kim Ward can't like sustain a true number one. But if he can, I think Tay has the ability to be like a true number one down the stretch and you're getting a breakout, you know, that pretty easily pays off that that fifth round price tag. With Watson, I think there is upside for more. But he yeah, his eight out is so high. You know, you see, are they going to change his role in the offense? I'm not sure they will. Yeah. And I guess to kind of summarize. And I think I do agree that, you know, Watson is probably a small hit or a small miss at this price where it's right either probably a big hit or a big miss. And so in Bestball, like we could be drafting Tate middle around two next year. And I don't think that would be crazy at all. Exactly. I also think with Tate, you know, you get some of the wants, he could be a big miss. I think he could also be a small miss where you're like, you get worse. Yeah, Tate Roya style. You get kind of a worse siege, or Christian Watson type of profile. You wish you had Watson, but like now you're just hoping, but he does give you some big weeks, and now you're just like hoping the sequencing works out in that kind of like small Bestball miss style. But yeah, I think the ceiling is pretty clearly higher on Tate, just given how he can you know, become a sort of a target dominant number one. Jane Daniels, Kenneth Walker, Kyron, Travis ETN, Jeffrey.
and take back on the clock here. Looks like the kick likes Chuba, Godwin, Reed, Harvey, also up here. Do you like Chuba or do you wanna go with a wide receiver? - I'm fine with Chuba, honestly. It's not the sexiest click, but we have in past ADP, it gives us the fourth running back. And now we can potentially be done if we want to, and then we probably get a receiver coming back that we like. - Yup, we add you there-- - For my homes, of course. (laughing) - Relax, relax, relax. Also, sidekick, relax here. You know, was it last week we got the double with Kelsey, Bryce, and the homes? Yeah. The, I did Trevor Lawrence on Naked Trevor Lawrence around this spot in my draft this morning and built out the backstack there with him. I enjoyed that as well. Did you guys get a little higher on Godwin? I feel like I don't remember seeing Godwin up here. - A little, I think a couple weeks ago, we got a little bit higher. - Okay, yeah. I like Godwin here a lot as our wide receiver three. Do you know what kind of what factored into the slight bump in Godwin for you guys? - I'm sorry. - So I think, basically, I'm sorry to remember exactly what we adjusted. It's all good. - Yeah, there was some concern about what Godwin's role was gonna be, you know, down the stretch. And I think we're potentially being a bit overly pessimistic on that. So we brought up that part a bit, I believe. But with Godwin, you know, you had him fall off last year. So you have the potential for him to bounce back, but it's sort of like, well, they also drafted to Ted Hurst. They've got Jim McMillan, like, how bad, and then a Buka potentially breaking out in the second year. So how bad could that get if Godwin falls off a little bit more? And yeah, essentially dialing, I think dialing that back a little bit is what I believe we did. - Yeah, and to me, it seemed like a lot of the hesitation with Godwin from people was like less about his role and more just like, is he going to be fully healthy at this age, you know, he missed the five games with the fibula injury. And I think people were a little spooked of like, does he have any juice here? But I think even as like an over-the-field volume merchant in an offense that's gonna throw the ball a ton, like I think that plays at this cost. - Yeah, I mean, if he's an over-the-field volume merchant, we're feeling great at this cost. My concern is that the volume merchant is a Buka. And, right, and then Godwin is kind of, you know, he's okay in the beginning of the season, but he's actually kind of, he's sort of falling off and we're talking about him next year in drafts going where Jerry Judy and Calvin Ridley are. Like that's the downside with Godwin, I think. But the upside is he's going like here again. (laughs) You know, it's like, I think that's sort of the upside where maybe he goes a little higher, but you know, he's gonna be an older receiver. So you're like, yeah, so it is a little bit of a small hit type of profile. I think it's a small hit, big mess, which is why we're not gonna have a ton of Godwin, but in this build, that small hit could be quite helpful as a water receiver three with a rookie water receiver, water receiver two. So, yeah, you're seeing him more in this type of build, which I think is good because there's like a clear utility to that small hit, obviously. - Van and Bet. - Van and Bet. - Yeah. - That 105. Yeah, and I mean, I guess I would say, maybe the upside that I would see too is again, let's assume full health. But let's say that Igbuka, his late season splits, post-injury are more like indicative of where he's at, and he had sun run touchdowns, and that like Godwin becomes the engine of the passing offense with Evans gone, and like Igbuka's in a similar role. Like I could see scenarios like that, 'cause we have seen- - That would be an absolute smash, where he, I mean, he does have some upside for that. Like I, I think, you know, Courtland Sutton went just after, and I think Sutton is a lot thinner. - Kyler would have been nice. - Yeah, Kyler would Jefferson would have been nice. So you wanna do the Sanderson with Jayden Daniels? - I think so, or pulling up Concepcion would be the other move. Who's like my- - Let's pull up Concepcion, just because I think it's feeling a little bit, we could feel kinda squeezed at wide receiver with only three coming back, and Concepcion gives us a little extra juice. - This is the one, this is like the last time I talked about Concepcion. I was like, we could, we could change some stuff, and then I was like, let's pat, pat. - Let's keep it safe and check. - No, not as ADP, but just like you're, the potential for me to get out on my skis on a rookie I like, which I've never done before, but I was considering doing for the first time here. But yeah, I mean, I've, I'm pretty bullish on Concepcion, so I'm gonna end up a bit higher on him. He's one of the guys, the few guys on my kit being two, pretty regularly now. - Yeah, pick 112 here. I mean, again, just thinking through the prices, and I know you guys are high on Lemon too, but just pricing these first round guys out, Lemon 76, Casey Concepcion 112, and Cooper 143. I mean, you know, I feel like the biggest dilemma with Concepcion and Cooper, it's just this idea of man, like all the jets, all the browns kind of isolated, look like a good values in a vacuum. We take Fanon, Sadeek Price looks nice. You know, there's just, that it's like, how many of these do you want to stack on one team? That's what people were pushing back on our main event team, where we were loaded up on, you know, good values on the Titans jets and browns. - Right, and it's like, how could that possibly burn you? You know, you do, you do think about you know, in retrospect, when that doesn't work, it looks really dumb, but there always are teams that surprise in terms of their ability to like produce fantasy value is a, you know, do we need them to be good? Not necessarily, we just can't have the, you know, the floor can't fall out. Which the jets do concern me on, for sure, 'cause they were just such cowards last year, you know, just trying to go home. You know, it's like, their games are ending at like, 245 Eastern. - Yeah, and they're just like, we're good. - I know. - We're gonna get the throne. - Yeah, especially for these teams that like, that's why the, the cam ward stuff, right? Where it's like, they're gonna try to make this work. Like they, they don't wanna throw in the towel on cam ward yet. I mean, the jets in the browns, they are looking for their quarterbacks for the future. You could be really worried about like true tank scenarios where they are, just try to like, get us to the 2027 draft. Those, those spots could be concerning for sure. About to pick here, we got the one quarterback for running backs, four wide receivers, one tight end, Kincaid, who Sam and I took in our previous draft at the top here. He goes, so we're looking at like Shakir Andrews, Searod. - Probably Shakir, who we, yeah, I'm, I'm good with Shakir. Shakir is one of my highest drafted players at this point. He just sits down here in this, in this tier that I don't think he's in. I think he's above, I think he's in the, the tier that, you know, I mean, he's in the same tiers, Wendell and Dobbs and Myers to me, but he goes, the latest of those guys, pretty much every single time. So I'm just starting to get a big bag of Shakir and it's, I'm not worried about his, no one is threatening him for his role. Like he clearly has that role locked down. They're like trying to talk up Kin, Kin on Coleman and stuff. Like, oh, I'm really pressed with Kin on Coleman these days. - He's safe. - Like Shakir's, Shakir is very safe for keeping Mitchell, by the way, was top of the sidekick there. - I know, I couldn't believe that there for a second. I was wondering about quarterback here and it does look like us grabbing Malik Willis makes some sense here. - My rule of thumb is if the sidekick thinks you should take Malik Willis, it's time to take quarterback. - Because it's, it's really more bearish on him. - We're not super high on Willis. So if, if Willis is pop it up, I'm listening. - Did you say Will listening? - Ooh. - I didn't, I could tell. - Maybe I did by accident. - I was like, was that intentional? - Yeah, I mean, Shakir does peer well with the team like this, right? Where we have Tate, we have Casey Concepcion as excited as we are for those guys. It could be a little bumpy at the start. Shakir gives us a more floor there with targets in the same way. Open for it with Godwin. Do you think, um, with the sidekicks suggesting Willis, you do have Stroud Ward, um, Darnold on the board? For a moment, their Darnold was ahead of him. Do you think it is just saying like, hey, the stacking dynamics could be a little trickier here with Darnold, just lock up Willis as a guy you don't have to worry about or is there maybe more going on there under the hood? - Yeah, I mean, I think what we're getting is, you know, Willis gives you what you need without any kind of stacking dynamics. And so he was probably sending there like a bit better than he sometimes does would be. And then you have him as the ADP faller. So it's like a good time to get a share of Willis is basically how I think it was like, hey, he's, he's sending pretty well. You need a quarterback to, you don't have any other guys who really jump out stacking wise. Like this isn't clearly a Stroud team or clearly a Darnold team. you.
You could try to backstack it if you want, but, you know, Willis is a guy we don't have a ton of, but he's not like completely dead to matter. So finding those spots where the guy who isn't always the best click does pop up is the way we wanted this to work. So I just think it's, yeah, it's a good time to tackle and Willis, like I'm at 2% on I don't have a ton of, but it's, again, it's not like he is a zero him out, not worth a clicking type of guy. Yep. So Jefferson, our first pick, then we go three running backs, Kenneth Walker, Kyle and Williams, Travis ETN, a little A-U there, Karnel Tate over Christian Watson. We then grab Jane Daniels in the sixth, Chuba Hubbard in the seventh, Godwin in the eighth, the Fanon bet in the ninth, come back with two wide receivers, Casey Concepcion, and Shakir, and then get our QB2 Malik Willis in the twelfth that leaves us with a 2451 build. You see some tight ends coming off the board here, Chig, Strange, Gatsden, Henry, and we're about to be on the clock here in a couple of picks, Sidekick, like in Johan Johnson. We could do another brown with Denzel Boston, Trey Tucker, some other options here. Yeah, and be Karen, be Karen, be Karan, says, and pronounce it Karan because I'm Karan. I like Johan here, second St. Yeah, already been on that offense, saying, what are they going to do, Bench, Willis, he feels like 2025, Justin Fields. I talked with Sam about this on that spare last Thursday, and I was very strongly, like Willis has serious bench risk guy, not the pro-Willis guy, so I feel like I fully see the downside with Willis, but, like I said, I mean, I don't think he is undraftable in the twelfth round. He's just risky. Yeah. So, you know, there are teams where you're like, yeah, in this world, Malik Willis either doesn't get benched or get benched so late, it doesn't really matter, and we have Jayden Daniels and he ends up carrying the team anyway. All right, one pick away, 2452 here, Denzel Boston top, Debo here is well. Do we rip it in on three Browns pass catchers here? Let's rip it in on the Browns, man. We got the Russian quarterbacks covered. We don't really need to get on their quarterback. The other guy, if you're trying to get that correlation going, you know, Antonio Williams is down there, but dude, he's been falling. I got him in the late 17th, yesterday, he's in the 200s sometimes now. I'm not sure exactly why I guess he, I mean, maybe it makes sense. It feels a little delayed reaction. I think, yes. Is that what it is? Okay. I thought, what would make more sense to me is that like he hasn't stood out relative to Traylon Berks and Luke McCaffery and Diyami Brown, which I do think is pretty concerning, but it's like completely free Takamon and hope he does stand out by December. I think it seems fine. Yeah. No, I'm with you. I've been patient with him. I think definitely makes sense, even on Daniel's teams. A copy-paste laid wants to know what does lay up say about the Browns quarterback and Falcons. Obviously, that could be a point of conversation for us on a triple Browns pass catcher team. Have you been getting any of those via the Sims? Michael Penix, you get, especially in 20 rounds, you might get him as like a last round pick, QB3, Takamon. I think he is a little bit more interesting in Atlanta. I just don't believe into a, without Mike McDaniel. I think it could get pretty gross and, you know, Penix, they haven't seen a ton from Penix. I think it would make sense for them to get a better look at Michael Penix at some point this year, and I have more faith in him up to the two. It's not like a guy I'm trying to take a ton of though, and then the Browns guys, they're both going to play. It's probably not going to be super consistently, even interesting. There's going to be some pain, like you're hoping one of them kind of goes, "James." But I guess like with this, I just don't need to tie myself to one of these guys. I could be like, "Oh, it could be Watson." The reason this team works out is because Watson recaptured some of his old Texans form, and it's like, "Nope, the reason was the Chadorer actually take the Broke out." I'd like to live with both outs and tact, rather than tying myself to one of them. Well, it is. We've done this move in DFS, right? Plan draftings on a week, you'd think back to some of those quarterbacks, where it would be like a Kirk Cousins thing, where the ceiling just wasn't quite there, but you'd have like values on the Vikings' past testers. And you do, like, it's like in this scenario, it's like KC Concepts Yone's 3,600, Denzel Post's 3,200, Fanon's like 4,100 at the tight end position, but you say like, "I'm not going to play Shader Sanders." Like his projection 17, Malik Willis's ceiling projection on ETR is like 28.4. Yeah. I'm going to play him naked, chase those rushing TDs, but still scoop up the value and the correlated elements of the Browns passing game. That's perfectly put. Yeah. You can stack without the quarterback, even in basketball. Looks like we did lose Antonio Williams here. It looks like we might flip to Stribbling Algier if we want a fifth running back, Dolsich, for the stack at tight end. What do you think? Yeah. I'm good with Stribbling or Dolsich. All right. Yeah. Let's do Stribbling here. We didn't get to talk about Jawan a little bit. You guys have been high on him. I definitely had a come to Jesus moment with him. I was looking, Dwayne put out some awesome research for his what matters for tight ends piece and was looking, and it was the first time in his series that just previous season fantasy points per game didn't have the highest correlation with next season points per game. For the tight ends, it was receiving yards per game at a 0.67 correlation. It makes sense, right? Because touchdowns swing those scoring and are the most volatile thing. So receiving yards are like the best proxy, and lo and behold, number four on the season last year in receiving yards per game, Jawan Johnson, there with 889 yards. And I know you guys have been talking about him. You guys got me warmed up to him, specifically in the FFPC format. But it's hard not to look at Jawan Johnson at these prices and not think of him as a nice value. He's been, yeah, I'm at 17% Jawan Johnson. I've been taking a ton of them. I think he's a very, you know, it's not the most exciting click. They add Tyson there. So it's going that's going to, you know, Dalsich goes, so it's funny, though, the kick doesn't seem to mind that though, still like in like Helm, Otten, and Fryer, Moose over him even before he went. You want to do Helm here? I look. Yeah, I like Helm a lot. We're already betting on the Titans. Yeah. And again, you know, again, you're betting on the Titans in the same way you're betting on the Browns. It passed a lot, maybe they don't have to be incredibly efficient. Yeah. What was I saying? We were talking about Jawan and you were saying you're. Oh, Jawan. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think with him, like, there's been, you know, some concern about, you know, Oscar Delp and that type of stuff. I think Delp is going to play more in 12 and stuff and I just don't, I mean, I frankly don't have a lot of concern about Delp full stop. But if he does play, you know, more than I expect is a rookie. I think they, they might just be more in 12 and you're looking at Jawan Johnson basically playing over Devon Veyley as your third weapon and, you know, they feel confident with, with Tyson outside at that point. So that would be, you know, one reason I think I'm a bit higher. I'm just not really concerned that Delp's going to like eat into Johnson's route participation. I do think that his target share will fall with Tyson there. But he's pretty cheap. He's on an offense that people are generally excited about. I'm not, I would say, quite as excited about playing it like through shock, for example. But I do see some of the appeal of the Saints killing more as a sharp offensive mind and stuff. So yeah, he's just, he's a pretty cheap way to get some exposure to that offense in a player who over multiple seasons has shown the ability to earn targets and produce yards. And when we were talking about the main event, it's like, hey, dude, like, you know what's kind of nice is guys who get targets at the tight end position. That's kind of, that's like a nice, predictable, you know, steady diet that you can live off of. What if he does score touchdowns? What if Tyson, you know, helps elevate this offense? What if ETN helps elevate this offense? And now this is a team that's just putting up more points every week. And now you have a tight end. Didn't really score many touchdowns last year. And you actually get that as part of the upside for his 2026 production. Well, is it that the funniest thing? That was the same thing we did with Alave, right? Where it's two years ago, he scores one TD and it was like, well, he's getting targeted a lot. All those ariards, all that stuff. Oh, and then he scores nine touchdowns. And it's like, it would it all comes together in their price at their floor. It's priced at the assumption that the touchdowns never come. That gives you a lot of room to run. Yeah, three touchdowns last year. He had 102 targets. Another guy we really like this year is Dalton Schultz. He had three touchdowns last year on 106 targets. And that's another guy when I was looking at the receiving yards, which again, like I acknowledge is a very simple screener.
for this stuff, but he was the other one, Dalton Schultz. Number seven on the list, 836 yards last year, tied in 23. That wasn't a touchdown-driven thing like this dude was involved in the offense. Yeah, they haven't really had it anyone. They've had a tank del maybe back off of injury. He's in position to. He should be targeted pretty heavily again and is even cheaper. I'm at 26% Dalton Schultz. I believe that from the sea in the kick for sure. Yeah. All right, let's make these picks here. We are about to pick in the 17th round. We have two more picks, two, four, seven, three here. Brassel at the top. I drafted him on a Bryce Young team in my first draft this morning. Halani, who I've been drafting a decent bit, who do you want to go with here? I like Brassel. Brassel is another rookie receiver. We talked about the utility that Khalil Shakir provides, but also this running back build, which you have Chuba Hubbard, which obviously is not the most exciting collect because we talked about you have Kyron Williams and ETN and Walker, probably just more. You hope those guys just have really strong seasons overall, but Chuba and Kyron, you could see like being at a little bit more like you hit the ground running with those guys and then as the season goes, you're like not getting so much flex points from these guys, you know, as much as I was. But pairing those types of guys with rookie wide receivers is pretty cool. And then I was kind of hoping we could take George Halani here with the last pick, because I think he just helps reinforce that like overall build, where it's like a running back to receiver Baton Handoff. Yep. Yes, Sam and I actually did a price Halani team right before you came on. And yeah, I mean, Halani's kind of one of those last guys now here where I actually feel kind of good about what we're going to get and you get. You can get momentum in your favor as well, right? If the thesis is like he has to be the guy, you know, like week one, week two, that's what the team's telling us, but we know momentum can carry and he has a role the whole season. I thought them using him in the playoffs to even win, you know, sharbs and Walker were healthy together at times. Like that was pretty bullish for how the team views him. So I'm starting to get Halani piled a bit. Yeah, I think he's he's very much to me. Like when I think about him, I'm looking at, you know, teams that could really use production early in the season, you know, to either help with, you know, a running back room that's maybe built around like, you know, you got to trade down Henderson or you know, you got like a Jonathan Brooks and type of guy, we were like, yeah, maybe this he's not like winning me, you know, the original league, but he's potentially playoff hammer and he's doing enough to pay off ADP. So it's like who could be like neutral or slightly lower than expected advance rate running backs who like win me BBM and Halani pairs well with those guys. And then of course, he pairs well with the rookie wide receivers, which we have, we have conception, we have Boston, we have strictly and Brazil. We have paid. We have five rookie wide receivers on this team. Like that, that's a tough build to advance, right? Like you're like, how do I advance this? We advance it with like Dusty Chuba, who hangs on a little longer than people thought, George Halani, you know, Malik Willis, like this team could be a Jaden Daniel Solo quarterback team with like three crazy values at rookie wide receiver. And we're just like, yeah, we had to, we had the the booster, the boosters fell off the rocket ship. They're gone. They didn't make it out of the Earth's orbit, but those being like Chuba and Halani, but here we are. We're in outer space with the absolutely new King Casey concept, you know, and Colonel tape. We're out, we're in outer space without our astronaut suits because we got naked Jaden Daniels in Malik Willis, our five running backs, Kenneth Walker, Kyron Williams, ETN, Chuba and George Halani. The wide receivers, as we mentioned, tons of rookies here, but also Jefferson, Carnell, take Chris Godwin, Casey, concept, you know, Shakira Denzel Boston, Stribbling and Chris Brasel, and then a nice three tight end room, Bannon, Joanne Johnson, Gunner Helm. Yeah, this is this is a funky funky team, and yet I think all of the pieces make sense on how we got there. Yeah, it's a it's like I said, I mean, it's a it's a team that kind of has players of very different archetypes that I think balance out pretty well. So we don't end up with any Daniels stacking. El Conco was in the mix for us. I forget where we went. We went maybe with Willis at that point. And then we didn't pull up Antonio Williams, which I'm increasingly fine not doing it. If the room wants to give us him basically for free, I'm happy to do that, but not someone I think you need to force it with. El Conco and McLean are really the only two guys that I feel any confidence in right there and partly because they could sign someone Debo might have been, you know, the other I doubt they bring him back with the 40 I saw some like 49ers fan stuff, like should we bring Debo back? He looks pretty good, actually. I know it seems like that's more and more a possibility at this point. I think one if we wanted, you know, one we could look back on, like do we take should we have taken Dolsich? I had a Stribbling to get that with Willis and then been okay with with the wide receiver option still there. You could have although, you know, Jack Bash went, you know, in that next round. So I feel okay about getting Stribbling. Yeah, to be honest, like Dolsich and Helm are pretty equivalent. And the psychic preferred Helm to Dolsich straight up when they were both on the board. So it's like hard to it's hard to feel like Dolsich's I mean, the thing about the Dolphin, even with Willis, the Dolphins passing game just could not support very many weapons week to week. Willis really might be a play for the rushing yards, you know, and then obviously he's got to pass enough, but like it doesn't mean he needs to pass consistently to a person, you know, it could be quite spread out. I mean, if it's not a play for the rushing yards, he should be going behind Geno Smith, right? Like that's what we're paying for. Yeah, but I just mean like, you know, you're, are we are we trying to tackle and Caleb Douglas or Chris Bell at the end or we just like, we know what this bet is. Yeah. So there it is 2583 drafting a BBM team with Karein. You guys can get the sidekick over at LegendaryUpside.com, anything else the people should know here Pat? Yeah, so actually there is we just have soft launch now. The the kickstand. So that is available at LegendaryUpside. I haven't sent out the email yet. So if you just type in though, change that URL to kickstand. Oops. Yeah. Oh, no, I spelled it wrong. I think you spelled it wrong. There we go. K I C K S T N D. All right. I guess I didn't. I thought I had a big flag. Um, if you, uh, yeah. So the kickstand, I'll give you the actual page here in a second. It's a, uh, we have it live. If you download the leg up sidekick extension, you know, so you get that, um, on the Google Chrome store, go to install sidekick on the site. You can get that there for that that's got the Firefox link. And, um, then it's, and I'll send you the link to this page here. But, uh, you can, you can, you just use the same exact extension. Okay. And if you have the leg up sub. So just the base to your sub, then you'll have access to the kickstand, which has a number of the features that, uh, the sidekick does. It does not have dynamic rankings, but it's got the, uh, it's got the notification sounds. It's got the tags for week 17. You know, if you already have that teams, that players quarterback that the other players on the team, all that kind of cool stuff. So, uh, it's got exposure. Um, and so this is now just included in the leg up sub. So if you're already a leg up member, just go to install sidekick, uh, at LegendaryUpside.com, get the sidekick installed and you'll have access to the kickstand. If you want the kickstand, just sign up for the leg up tier. There's still just two tiers leg up and sidekick. And we'll just detect which tier you have and give you the appropriate tool. So, it's all just under the same extension should be super simple for people. And yeah, it's, it's, you know, you can upload, uh, your rankings as well. Like I tested it just with, uh, with Jacob Sanderson's rankings in there. You can toggle back and forth between our rankings, a custom set that you install, that you upload, um, just on the bottom of the sidekick or the kickstand. There's a little gear and click that open new tab. You upload your rankings there. And then you can also toggle with ADP. So it's just displaying a static list based on whatever you choose there. Uh, so, you know, it's just a little kickstand sidecar with
with rankings. But then you get all those tags. And then the notification sound is honestly, I think not a small perk. I think it can be quite helpful for multitasking. There you go. Get that now at legendary upside.com. You can catch Pat on a P chasing tomorrow, ship chasing on Wednesday as well. Make sure you guys check out. We did a main event draft. Last Wednesday, very fun stream there. You can go and get your takes in on all the Titans browns and jets drafted. Another great best ball breakfast in the books. Appreciate everybody watching on your way out. Make sure you guys are subscribed and hitting that like button. And yeah, a couple of the other announcements that I had made earlier. Don't forget we're going to do the randomizers coming back on Thursday with the three. So you think you can tell finalists, which again, by the way, if you guys missed that episode, Mr. Pat Karein here, depending on which side my mirror is having Pat on was a guest surprise guest judge along with Davis Maddick. If you guys like this show, if you like ship chasing, you'll enjoy some of the lore there as well as Pat's thoughts on those finalists. Yeah. When is the final going to be? It's taking place now. I'm doing some after darks with them, the randomizer and they behind the scenes, they're giving me their pitch on what their show is going to be. So that's going to be a big part of the finale we're working on. Oh man. All right. Good luck. Yeah. Thank you, man. Some tough places for sure. So yes, for everybody for producer Mark for Mark Dank filling in for Adam for Sam and for Pat. I'm Pete. We'll see you guys next time on Best Ball Breakfast. Peace.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Pete Oversett hosts a Best Ball Breakfast draft show featuring guest appearances from Mark Dank, Sam Sherman, and Pat Karein, with a focus on fantasy football strategy and projections.
The episode highlights a detailed draft build centered around a two- quarterback (Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff) and five-running-back strategy, with strong emphasis on value, risk, and team balance.
Key discussions include the Vikings backfield dynamics, the potential of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, and the appeal of undervalued players like Cam Scatabo and Ramondra Stevenson, while acknowledging injury risks and market inefficiencies.
Summary:
Pete Oversett hosts a live Best Ball Breakfast draft on his YouTube channel, featuring a solo draft followed by guest appearances from Mark Dank, Sam Sherman, and Pat Karein. The episode centers on a detailed fantasy football draft strategy, where Pete builds a team with two quarterbacks—Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff—alongside five running backs, including Kyron Williams, Cam Scatabo, Ramondra Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, and Aaron Jones. A key focus is the Vikings backfield, with analysis of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones as potential goal-line threats, despite their high ADPs, due to increased offensive opportunities following Kyler Murray’s arrival.
Pete and guest Mark Dank discuss the value of these players, emphasizing that both could thrive in a dynamic offense with a 50/50 split, especially if a third back like Demon Clayborne red-shirts. The draft also features a mix of wide receivers, including Aman Ross, Drake London, Christian Watson, and Taekwan Thornton, with a deliberate inclusion of a rookie (Pat Bryant) to meet BBM’s rookie requirement. The team is balanced across positions, with three tight ends (Breton Strange, TJ Hawkinson, Gunner Helm) added for depth.
Pete reflects on the draft’s strategy, noting that while early picks are risky, the team shows strong projectability and late-season upside. He also highlights the use of the Solver’s combinatorial tool to analyze player pairings and team correlations, and promotes the Solver’s draft report feature for team evaluation. The episode concludes with a look at future content, including the return of the randomizer and the upcoming AfterDark series with guest appearances from Tony Squares and PPR Tyler.
The team is built with a mix of value, risk, and consistency, reflecting Pete’s belief in smart, flexible drafting over overreliance on high-upside swings.
FAQs
Best Ball Breakfast airs weekly, with the main show featuring Pete Oversett, Mark Dank, Sam Sherman, and Pat Karein. Additional episodes are planned for August, including Wednesday broadcasts with special guests.
Key guests include Mark Dank, who provides projections, Sam Sherman, the defending BBM champion, and Pat Karein, who is a regular co-host and sidekick. Other guests like Chad Candles, Jake, and Jay Skeets also appear periodically.
The randomizer returns in the finale to add excitement, featuring three players—Tony Squares, Coffee Cups, and PPR Tyler—being tossed into a gauntlet, which creates a fun and unpredictable element for fans.
The show features detailed drafting breakdowns, player comparisons, and risk analysis, including discussions on injury concerns, team depth, and value in specific matchups like the Vikings backfield.
Yes, the show often features a 'Trevor Lawrence backstack' with two quarterbacks and multiple running backs and wide receivers, focusing on value, depth, and projectable volume for consistent performance.
The Solver's tool helps users track player pairings, exposure levels, and team correlations, allowing for better decision-making and visibility into draft choices and team composition.
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