3 Advantages Small Bettors Have | Ep 3

Because the first step should be like identifying if you're a profitable better, without having to jump through the hoops of the cat mouse game that professional betters play. GoldenPants 13 here. The most successful people in the world are the ones who best understand risk. The RiskTakers podcast is an attempt to document the lessons I've learned as a professional sports better, poker player, trader, overall risky person. My goal is to help listeners become smarter at gambling and smarter with risk in general. So you can apply these lessons, make a lot of money, and then come back and teach me a thing or two. I don't run ads, so I'd appreciate it if you like, subscribe, and share this with someone who might be interested. Last thing. I want you to please join the GoldenPants 13 Discord server link in the show notes. It's a free sports betting and DFS Discord server that blows any paid Discord server out of the water. You can safely unsubscribe from all your paid servers, join ours, and have access to higher quality picks, a more engaged community, and a ton of cool events. I hope to see you in there and let's get on with the show. I think one of the misconceptions in gambling in general is you have to have a lot of money to win. There's always this misconception and poker that if you have more money, you can just bluff someone out and they have to fold because they don't have as much money as you. But that's just not how poker works at all. But I think this mindset carries over into sports betting into DFS Pickham, which is what a lot of you guys are interested in. So I wanted to talk about specifically some advantages that you have as a smaller better over professionals like myself and the people running these big syndicates because there are certainly things that you can do that we don't necessarily have in our toolkit. It's important to really lean on those advantages while you're building your bankroll and use them so that you're going to have a higher win rate and you're just going to overall have lesser risk in your operation while you're betting. So let's go over a few of the number, the main things. Okay. For me, the main thing is when you're when you're smaller better and you're betting smaller unit sizes, you're not you're not worried about getting limited. Whereas because here's the thing, if even if you're a sharp better, even if you're betting the same, Bet says me, right? And it's a lot, you know, it's part of the discord is I'm giving out some of my bets and a lot of people are following them. You're betting, you know, five, 10, 25, 50 dollars on these bets, you're not going to get limited. It's actually below, like let's just take prize picks for example, prize picks, limits between will limit you to 100 or I've heard recently $25 is the new limit. Let's say you don't even bet up to $25. Well now there's no point for them to limit you. Why would they limit? You know, you're already betting under 25 and even if you're betting 50, even a hundred dollars per pop. You know, prize picks in every other betting, every other sports book out there, they have a size threshold that like automatically will trigger review size threshold, win threshold, risk threshold on what they're what they could lose on a certain play. So when you're betting small, you have very low likelihood of triggering those thresholds, which means that you can play on your own account. You don't need to use betting partners and you can bet basically without ever thinking about getting limited. I can't go place a bet at draft Kings, right? I need a betting partner to work with to actually get money down because at draft Kings, I can only bet $2. Before I was betting five, 10K pop on golf, but that just gets shut down quickly. And a lot of my mental energy these days goes to figuring out how to get money down, not exactly even like how to be better at predicting outcomes of sporting events. Like it's all that's almost secondary. Now I have to think about how am I going to get the most possible money down on this without moving it to without moving a line to where it becomes unbetterable for me. And it's like it's this whole song and dance. Well if you're smaller, you're just focusing on finding value. That's great. That's the first step. It actually sets up for such a natural, great intro into sports betting because the first step should be identifying if you're a profitable better without having to jump through the hoops of the cat mouse game that professional betters play with the casinos, with the sports books. So number one, don't have to worry about being limited. That's huge, huge. Number two, the promos are more significant. So there are some promos at scale with how much you bet. Could be like a deposit match, but even those tend to have some limits. But there are some very VIP programs that have some attractive deposit matches out there. But let's say we get a bet. We have a partner who gets a bet on draft kings like a free bet and it's like bet $5 on a parlay and if it loses you get $5. I'm just not going to go through the trouble of even thinking of placing that bet because it's honestly not the ROI on the time there is just not worth it. But when you're building your bankroll and you're betting smaller, it is worth it because your goal isn't necessarily to be achieving a great hourly because you do need a pretty good bankroll to achieve a really good hourly. But your goal is building that bankroll to then achieve that great hourly to prove the concept that you are winning sports better. So you're massively lowering your risk because when you bootstrap your sports betting, the only way for you to start betting a lot of money, if your bootstrapping and you're just keeping your growing your bankroll and you're moving up your bets when you have a bigger bankroll, the only way to bet more money is to make more money. So you've already proved that you can beat sports better. About the time you're moving up and stable and betting higher amounts. So when you're betting smaller, you don't have to think so much about your hourly. I think a lot about my hourly, I think a lot about a lot of nonsense, but you can go in and you can make like a hundred bucks easier week just on promos, just doing promos. Now you know, yeah, it'll take having a couple different accounts and whatnot, but that's like risk-free money that you can make every week and slowly get yourself comfortable with sports betting and understanding how these sites work, where there's a lot that you learn just through easing into it. Promos are a great way to essentially dip your toe into the life of being a winning sports better. Now, you know, a hundred dollars a week in promo won't move the needle for professional or professional syndicate. That's fun. You know, that's just another advantage that you can have a higher percentage of your play be promo based. You're going to have a higher ROI than us because you're going to be able to make a lot of value bets play promos even better early line. Number three, bet early lines. So this isn't as applicable for a DFS pick them. So you know, I would just kind of ignore this if you're only playing on price picks under dog, whatever. So this is applicable for sports better. And essentially what will happen is as the game approaches, as the event approaches, the sports books will take gradually more and more and more action, bigger and bigger bets, right? So as a golf better, I'll give you an example. So Tuesday, Tuesday morning is kind of when golf starts to heat up, the golf market starts to heat up at 730, bet online, you know, is taking $500 a golf matchup, right? That's not that much. For the big golf betters, it's just not going to be worth it to the bet at bet online. Unless you're kind of setting up a move on a book that copies bet online. You bet them bet online one way. This other book copies them. You can bet, you know, 10 grand there and you go the other way, the other book or something, but 500 a pop, I mean. It's just not going to be worth it for the bigger bettors. But when you're still building your bankroll, you're not running into the problem of it being quote unquote worth it. These are unit size isn't 500 yet. So you might as well bet early when the lines are going to be better. Because as the reason sportsbooks take higher and higher bets, the closer it comes to game time, theoretically, theoretically is because they have more information from sharp bettors and they're more confident in their lines. And they have lines basically become harder and harder to beat, the closer you get to game time. This isn't always true, but basically that's the principle. So if you're not trying to bet 10 grand, you're trying to bet $300, then you can just bet it right when the line's posted. So those are the softest lines. It's proven that opening lines are the easiest lines to bet. So when you're smaller or better, you actually have access to those opening lines and it doesn't really make a difference. Whereas someone who's trying to bet 10 grand, they're not going to bet the Tuesday morning bettoron line $500 opener. You're going to have to sit there and wait and hope that your number is still there. Or maybe later in the day and the week, you might have to try and set up the market or find some out where you can bet this amount of money because just betting the $500 and giving your information to the sportsbook for just the $500 bet is not worth it. So there's all these other considerations you have to go through, but when you're starting out, you can just go attack those opening lines and you should. Although we hate it. I hate when sharp bettors with small bankrolls hit opening lines because I'm like, just wait, bet more money. But I mean, it's part of the game and I was that small better before. And of course I'm hitting every opening line for a couple hundred bucks when I was building my bankroll and as should you. I mean, that's just really the circle of life. So no hard feelings. You know, maybe sell the pick to me. I don't know. If it's good stuff, we might pay more than the EV that online is giving you, but that's neither here nor there. But yeah, those are really the three big things that as a smaller better, you know, believe it or not, you're going to be out in advantage. Again, they are. You're not going to get limited. Pro-Moses are going to make up a bigger percentage of your play. And you can bet open in lines if that's, you know, if you're betting on a sports book. So this was just something I was thinking about because I know that sports betting is very, very interesting where there is a kind of delineation between size, right? They, there's like your big, you know, your syndicates, your professionals, your whales, and whatever. And then they kind of like everyone else. If it comes in under a certain number, we're not thinking about that action. Well, I don't think everybody knows that, right? This is just something that I've learned through talking to various players in the industry. So like if you're under, you know, if you're small better, you've been like 50 bucks, 25 bucks, don't worry about being limited. They're not looking at you, you know? Make your promos, bet the early lines, bet value, bet, you know, arbitrage, whatever it is, you know, as a small better, get in there and get the reps, you know, become a winning better, get that mindset going, take the low-hanging fruit, bet player props at sports books. Don't, don't bet the NFL sides when they'll take 200 grand on NFL side, bet a player prop that they might only take 150 bucks on. They're going to be much less confident in that lot. So, you know, there is this first step in sports betting, which is just taking the low-hanging fruit and just getting into the practice of being a winning better, of being a pain in the ass to these sports books, you know? Be a shitty customer. That's the fucking motto, dude. So anyway, I hope this helps. Any questions, obviously, hit me up. I'd love to have anybody listening, hop in our Discord channel. It's great. It's for people of all levels, you know, we have pros down to people who are just having fun sweating the game. A little something for everyone, but the main motto is we just have fun and hope to make a little bit of money along the way. Alright, I'll talk to everyone later. Thank you for listening.