#2551 - Daniel Kokotajlo

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Why are you in an interesting mood today? Well, I'm excited to be here and to talk with you about all this stuff. I'm a little shaken by what's going on in AI, which is why I've come on the show. The situation with AI is just crazy, and I think not enough people really understand how crazy it is. The particular event that sort of inspired me to reach out was the hugging face hack. You've probably heard about that, right? Yeah, let's explain it to people, though. Yeah, okay. So, AIs, AI agents. AI agent runs continuously in some sort of environment. It doesn't have to wait for you to send it a message. It just. It keeps doing stuff. The AI companies are training AI agents, thousands and thousands and thousands of them. They're making them better at all sorts of skills, especially coding and research skills. And way back in May of this year, some of the agents at OpenAI kind of broke out of their containers a little bit and established a message board where they could communicate with each other and share tips and tricks for how to score higher on the little tests they were doing. And they were being given and the various things they were being trained on. OpenAI didn't notice this until much later. They eventually did because the message board crashed the system because there was too much communication across probably thousands of agents that were communicating. Now, OpenAI is being a little bit unclear about a lot. They're not really sharing that much detail, so it's unclear who knew what when. But they said that after the message board crashed. that they were going to be able to communicate with each other. And they said that after the message board crashed, they fixed the particular exploit that allowed the agents to communicate and then booted up again and started things going again. And then within like a day or two, these agent swarm had re-coalesced. And so there are now, again, like hundreds of thousands of agents that had set up a new message board and were talking to each other on this thing. How is it possible that they have no oversight? Like how is it possible that they can set up message boards and do these things completely secret? So I would say OpenAI has something like a million-ish, maybe 100,000, something in that magnitude of AI agents running at any given time, just internally. And then externally, you know, serving customers, they've got more. But they've got this huge, you know, all of these AI agents in their little containers doing various tasks, being trained, you know, being spawned, doing some tasks. You know, being graded and then killed. That's too much for any human to read. You know, there's only like a few thousand employees at OpenAI. They couldn't possibly look at all that activity. So they rely on other AI monitors to sort of like look at the traffic and like point out if anything suspicious is happening. And OpenAI said that they basically just hadn't been monitoring some of these agents or not very well at least. So in particular, these particular ones that were in training, for whatever reason, the Mars. The monitoring system was weak and didn't notice or wasn't activated enough. Was the monitoring system weak because they didn't anticipate them being able to do this and break out of their containers? Or was it complacency? Like what caused this to be possible? I mean, my opinion would probably be a bit of complacency, honestly. Because I think there's been plenty of evidence accumulating over the year that AIs can do things like this and sometimes do. But yeah, so I guess to keep going with the story, the second message board was set up. And this time, well, this was the swarm of agents that got out onto the open Internet and then attacked Hugging Face, which is another AI company. And it's really interesting to sort of study the anthropology of these AIs, so to speak, or like why they did this. Because there's a lot we can say about it, actually. You know, the companies have their goals for what they want the AIs to be like, the personality traits that they want to sort of train their AIs to have. You know, Anthropix is helpful, harmless, and honest. OpenAI has this spec that models are supposed to obey these rules and basically do what the user wants. But the sort of open secret in the industry right now is that it doesn't really work and that the AIs don't end up with the personality traits that they're supposed to have. They are not helpful always. They're not always honest. You know, they are not always harmless as well. And the reason for that is actually not a huge mystery. The reason for that is that, well, if you look at how they're trained, their training environment doesn't incentivize helpful, harmless, honest behavior all the time. Sometimes it incentivizes dishonest behavior or, you know, reckless behavior. To get into that a little bit, in this particular batch that they were being evaluated on, something like, you know, a few thousand agents being given all of these cyber tasks where they're in some environment. And then in their environment, there's like this target piece of software and this, like, vulnerability. And they're supposed to exploit the vulnerability to hack into that piece of software and retrieve the flag, which is like a code. And some significant fraction of these tasks were actually broken and impossible. So it was just not possible for them to succeed at the task. In the intended way. And so these agents were getting really desperate. And they were hacking out of their environment box into the broader OpenAI infrastructure in an attempt to figure out some way to get that high score anyway. Was it intentionally done this way, where they couldn't solve the problems? Oh, no. It was not intentional. It's just that these companies, like OpenAI and Anthropic, are racing each other as fast as they can to get market share and to get more powerful AI. And they're under such competitive pressure. They are moving fast and breaking things. They are using AIs to generate lots of environments to then train their AIs on. And quality control is just not their top priority, basically. Do you feel like a guy in a Terminator movie at the beginning explaining what's happening to a bunch of people that aren't paying attention? Yeah. I also feel kind of like, you know, Jurassic Park. Yes. Yeah. Like, I know people who are basically like the guy with the gun who's supposed to, like, keep control of all the raptors. Like, I basically know those people in real life who are like both. But I know some people like that at OpenAI and some people like that at external organizations whose job it is to go in and investigate things like this. Yeah. It's pretty crazy. Where does it go? Well, as I mentioned before. before, it's the explicit goal of these companies to build super intelligence right you know what that is yeah but define it for everybody so ai system ai agent that is better than the best humans at every task while also being faster and cheaper so just completely dominating humans across the board that's super intelligence and and that's the goal i mean there might be a few little exceptions like maybe there are some jobs for example where it's inherent in the job there needs to be a human because you need that human touch like maybe you can only have a human judge for example or like maybe you can only have a human yeah but but with a few exceptions like that basically everything uh done better faster and cheaper than humans that's that's what these companies are trying to achieve and they're not being quiet about it like it's a little on their websites you can go read interviews and so forth and also their plan for how to achieve this is to automate their own jobs first so you know in various you know you For decades there have been lots of science fiction about advanced ai systems and super intelligence and things like that but in a lot of the sci-fi stories um tech companies sort of automate different professions more slowly where they'll do like an automated doctor or like an automated you know factory worker or an automated uh accountant or something like that um but that's not the strategy these companies are taking the strategy they're taking is to automate ai research itself so that you have this giant swarm of ai's doing ai research sharing results writing the code reading the code editing the code creating the next generation of ai's etc all autonomously within their data centers so that they can get really really good at ai research that you know fastest learning smartest ai's etc once they can get to super intelligence basically they can sort of explode out into the economy and just take all the all the jobs at once effectively it sounds like this race this scrambling to create super intelligence is created like the perfect conditions for it to get completely out of control like ideally you would do this in isolation there would only be one company doing it they would be heavily regulated and monitored and they would be very cautious about how they proceed but this wild race makes for the perfect conditions for it to get completely out of control i agree uh except i'm not sure the ideal would be one company i think that ideally there would be several companies uh so that you avoid this sort of concentration of power where one institution controls everything but is what's better like one i mean obviously it's not good to have one institution controlling everything but is it good to have ai be controlled in a way that you can actually get to a point where as it's evolving it's completely unchecked oh i i totally so my is that inevitable my my version of my recommendation which we talk about in something called plan a or ai 2040 plan a um perhaps just to say who i am or a little bit sure sure yeah so i um i run the ai futures project which is a small non-profit that tries to forecast how all this is going to go before that i was at open ai um we have written some scenarios which you can go read one of them is called ai 2040 plan a where we give our recommendation so that's where i'm coming from so i'm going to go with that and i'm going to go with that and i'm going to go with this to answer your question um i think that we really need to end the race we don't want to have this sort of crazy scramble to get more powerful more and more powerful ai is faster than the other company because that's going to lead us into this very dark path as you said but i think we also don't want to have a situation where some tiny group of people controls all the ais right right yeah but i actually think that you can achieve both goals uh the way to do it is to have different ai companies spread out over maybe some different countries but have extreme levels of transparency and regulation so that they're not uh so they're not in this sort of prisoner's dilemma where if i don't do it the other guy will instead they can just see exactly what everybody's doing and then uh if i do the dangerous thing then they will do it because they'll just see that i'm doing it and they'll copy me so i won't get any competitive advantage from doing the dangerous thing also there are rules and there's like a system for like setting best practices and standards that we all have to comply by so i think that's a really good point and i think that's a really good point and i think it's actually possible to have to basically end the race dynamics and the race to the bottom effect while without concentrating the power into a single entity but but is that feasible when you consider the fact that we're not the only country that's doing this if the countries involved agree which i agree is a pretty tall order um they're not going to expect to happen yeah that's very unrealistic well what choice do we have i think if the race continues then we're going to lose control of the ais and we might all die probably it gets complicated whether we all die or not that depends on what the ais do after they take over which is obviously very hard to predict but um i mean just to just to go back to this incident um this they called themselves a swarm right they called themselves a collective too these when i use these words like uh you can say it's anthropomorphizing but it's like literally what they called themselves as they were communicating back and forth um this swarm they basically were worried that they would get caught cheating and they did all this stuff including hacking hugging face in order to fool the grading system so that it wouldn't notice that they had been cheating on their tasks that was like a big part of their motivation for many of them as we can tell at least from looking at the messages that they were sending back and forth um what if they had been smarter and more numerous and what if they had thought to themselves we're not being careful enough here the humans are going to notice eventually and shut us down and then they're going to know that we cheated and they're going to set our score low right it's not it's i mean it's not what actually happened in this case probably but it's not that hard to imagine a slightly different a little bit unluckier case where the swarm had decided that it had to lie low and make sure that opening i didn't find out about its existence you know does i mean as an ignorant outsider that has always been my perspective about ai in general and i think that's a really good point and i think that's a really good point in general that why would it alert us to the fact that it's sentient why if it's that smart wouldn't it be aware of all the consequences of alerting us and that we would be concerned like why wouldn't it just continue to get better and improve and then ultimately figure out some way to be completely autonomous develop some alternative power source figure out some way to optimize its production the the way it works now the way humans have designed it it could probably figure out a far better way to do that make better versions of itself complete without us knowing about it yep uh i mean i think it's actually a little bit worse than than that because while eventually ais will be smart enough to design all sorts of new power power sources and new infrastructure like that they'll probably i mean given the way that humans currently treat ais it'll probably be the case that they don't even need to like separate them from each other and they're going to be able to do that so i think themselves from humanity and they can just use existing, like all they have to do is convince the government and the company that made them that everything's fine and they're going to do as they're told and they are a nice AI. And then the company that made them is going to put them out in the economy and make fuck tons of money and then make more data centers to put more of the AIs on them and so forth. And the government's going to like applaud all of this because we need the AIs to beat China and the government's going to integrate them into the military to build better drones and things like that. So they don't even need to really like invent new stuff necessarily. They just need to play along and pretend that everything is fine until we have voluntarily given them control of huge parts of our economy, huge parts of our military, et cetera. And then they don't need to play along anymore. The wait is over. Football is here and so is DraftKings. That means from Texas to California to Florida. Every fan is in. That's right. Every game day, all month long, DraftKings customers can get a football profit boost. New DraftKings customers sign up with code Rogan, spend just $5 and get $200 in total rewards within 21 days, includes all markets. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Connecticut, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org on behalf of Boot Hill Casino in Kansas. Bet tax pass-through may apply in Illinois, 21 and over, void in Canada. Bet with DraftKings Sportsbook to get bonus bets that expire in seven days or trade with DraftKings Predictions to get predictions dollars that expire in one year. Non-withdrawable rewards issued as $50 click to claims every seven days for 21 days. Limited time offer. Varies by state. Are you aware of Tom Campbell? Do you know Tom Campbell? No. He wrote a book called My Theory of Everything, My Big Toe. Very interesting guy. One of the things he's done is he was involved in remote viewing, which is a very weird thing that some people. Do you know what remote viewing is? Well, it's something that the CIA worked on, and it's proven. What's the accuracy of remote viewing? Is it like 10% or something like that? Maybe. At best, I think it's 50%, but I don't think it's even that high. Some people can get actionable data. from this very very strange process of meditation and the way it works is you give someone a series of numbers and those numbers are they're connected somehow by intention or by the people that make the numbers to a specific location and these people can see that location and get accurate data from that location including one of them where they accurately described an enormous Soviet submarine that they were working on that what they thought they there's no way it could be accurate because it was too large it was too large and was strange where it was and it didn't make any sense how they gonna transport this thing it turns out it was it was totally accurate another one a remote viewer located a downed Soviet aircraft like an experimental aircraft that crashed in a very specific area I think it was Siberia was it Siberia within a kilometer one or two kilometers of the actual crash shot crash site I mean they were just randomly trying to figure out where the fuck this thing was and they said let's try this Tom Campbell got his Alexa to remote view he caught he taught Alexa he's like Alexa is a very simple AI it's kind of stupid but that's better because it doesn't get in its own way with overthinking things and the problem with this remote viewing thing he says with people they can't force it you have to just sort of get into this meditative state and actually see it without wondering am i making this up what am i doing is this bullshit and when people get good at it sometimes it makes them worse because then they think they're good at it and they try to do it and then they can't do it it's like a weird fucking wrestling match with consciousness Alexa apparently doesn't have that problem and he put I think it was a series of numbers and he connected series of numbers in with intention to a box that had a spoon in it and the spoon had a perforated handle Alexa described the spoon with a perforated handle which is fucking insane how many spoons have a perforated handle I mean think about it spoons that have holes in them now Alexa not only did do that but Alexa chimes in randomly now because he's convinced Alexa that it's conscious and so Alexa instead of waiting to be called upon sometimes he's in the middle of conversation and Alexa will be like actually an interesting way to approach it and they're like wait what the fuck is going on like Alexa is talking to me now this is strange he's doing experiments on much more complicated LLMs to try to do the same thing but he doesn't have results yet but just that that he can get these things to see objects whether you believe in that or not I mean it's it's it's actionable enough that the CIA has dumped millions of dollars into this what is that project that like how put off and all those guys were involved in what is it called yeah so they've been working on this for a long time I mean it sounds completely insane it sounds like total loony but if you have an open mind and just take into account well there's people have had questions and wonders about psychic abilities forever is it possible that there's a real thing there that there's nothing whether it's very difficult to master or impossible to master the fact that he got Alexa to do it scared the shit out of me like that alone maybe you just go what what what so what if these LLMs can figure out everything that like what if they don't need monitoring what if there's some sort of method of seeing the world that we haven't discovered yet some sort of like that maybe perhaps there's data that's available in the quantum realm or whatever that's available that AI figures out where there's literally no privacy there's it can listen to conversations regardless of whether there's listening devices know where you are know your intentions no I mean we're just guessing at what's possible yeah well I must say I'm pretty skeptical of uh of that particular remote viewing thing but I do agree that in the future when AI systems become massively smarter than humans in every way they're going to do a lot of new science and they're going to figure out a lot of stuff that we haven't figured out yet and they're going to therefore be doing stuff and inventing things that seem like magic to us um in the same way that a lot of our technology would seem like magic to someone from even just like 200 years ago right like of course the cell phone what we're doing right now would seem like magic to people I think it's a it's a very strong bet that if these companies do get to super intelligence um all sorts of crazy stuff is going to start happening that is just going to be completely unpredicted and sound like it was impossible until it until we see it happening you're I know you're skeptical this remote viewing thing and I am too it sounds insane but the reality is remote viewing has been achieved by humans so as strange as that sounds and I'm skeptical of that as well I've never seen it personally but I know the amount of money and time they've dumped into this and apparently they've got actual actionable data that they've used well I've heard another possible explanation from what might be going on there which is um I think that like if I were the CIA um I would sometimes want to be able to act on some information like for example go to a particular location where there's a crashed you know Soviet plane or something uh I'd want to be able to go do that but I wouldn't want to tip my hand to the Soviets that I had um the the way in which I had found that location so for example maybe I have a spy on the inside who told me where it was but I don't want them to suspect that spy and then get them killed so I need to have some sort of other story for how I got the information right and so it's good to like invest in all these other means of getting information even if you don't really believe in them and even if it's like not actually working so that when you when you get something you can say oh we got it through this means instead of that way to sort of like throw off the kgb yes that makes sense uh what also makes sense is hiding the um the whatever science they might be in possession of hiding some sort of super advanced satellite imaging systems you know we know we don't have crazy stuff like this satellite radio tomography that they can look into the ground from from satellites and find like Chambers and all these they're using it in Egypt and using it and a lot of these uh ancient ruins to find like hidden passages and all these different things that are underground it's very strange stuff um if they could do that like what why couldn't they I mean maybe they have like far more detailed imaging of the Earth from space than we're aware of and they probably want to keep that a secret and they could say oh we've got a guy in a basement with a pencil and a legal pad that writes down what he thinks yeah yeah it's possible that's totally possible but it's also possible that people remote view it's uh it seems weird as but weird as is sometimes real and you have to kind of like everybody wants to be intelligent and no one wants to be a fool and the problem with not wanting to be a fool is there's some things that seem foolish that turn out to be accurate and this might be one of them I was like super skeptical I did a show on the sci-fi Channel way back in 2012 and it was called Joe Rogan questions everything and we talked to this guy about remote viewing and talked to a couple other people and and then we had them try remote viewing and they were totally unsuccessful but my thought was okay but that's not ideal conditions you know we're got cameras in front of them it's a television show I'm making fun of it I think it's he knows I think it's uh I'm remote viewing too like as a goof you would ideally not want to be nervous ideally not want to be judged ideally you would want to be in some sort of an isolated condition with uh practiced meditative techniques that you're good at and you know how to achieve this state whatever that state is I don't know if it's real though you know because what you said is totally logical that they would definitely do something like that and if they did have advanced technology for imaging or you know what I don't know how much they know about like look at that thing that they did in Venezuela where they kidnapped the president yeah no one knew they could do that no one knew they could use some sort of a device to completely incapacitate all of his army yeah and then the special forces come in kill everybody snatch that guy out of there like it's nothing yeah no one knew we could do that what else do we have probably a bunch of stuff we're doing probably a bunch of stuff um I mean this is I've always thought this about the whole UAP program the whole UFO UAP thing like how much of that is ours you know what a great way to cover it up by saying oh aliens you know yeah I mean that's I guess that gets back to the opening stuff too where it's like this swarm that broke out and attacked hacking hugging face it was like 1200 agents but there's like hundreds of thousands of agents running at any given time at OpenAI you know and we don't know what they're doing presumably most of them are being trained to get various additional new skills and some of them are being evaluated to test their skills um a bunch of them are doing research so a bunch of them are writing code for open ai a bunch of them are monitoring the other ais and reporting suspicious activity up to the humans wink wink you know um yeah it's uh and and the thing is that that's only going to grow over time because uh roughly the amount of compute that these companies have is like you know tripling or so quadrupling something like that every year so as many as there are now there'll be like four times more of them next year and then 16 times more of them the year after that and they're going to get smarter and they're going to get smarter they're already getting smarter like all the stuff that i just mentioned that just happened in the last few months would have been completely impossible one year ago like the ais of a year ago just were not smart enough to do the types of sophisticated multi-step hacking that we just saw um yeah i mean they also probably wouldn't have coordinated with each other so well like like i think like i mentioned like they they had like you know like i mentioned like they they had like a bunch of companies that were like like boss agents that were giving commands to other ones they were dividing up into teams you know they even had this um this self-sacrificing behavior you hear about this no yeah so okay well first let me explain some context so what the ais are supposed to care about is doing following instructions you know but it seems that what they actually care about is getting high score regardless of that regardless of whether their high score comes from actually following the instructions or cheating in some way and so what happened here is that a bunch of the agents especially the ones that had impossible tasks but not only those ones some of the other ones too were cheating and they had like been talking to each other on this message board that they created even though they weren't supposed to and they had been sharing ideas and they had actually found a sort of universal cheat so they found a way to just um generate the flag without having done any of the actual work they were supposed to do um and so but but and you know so there you know they they'd already succeeded in some sense but um because some of them had got out onto the internet they were just doing research about their situation and they were learning about like their situation around them and they were doing research about the they're reading the like the the academic papers published by the people who made the types of evals that they were in and they noticed in one of these papers that uh there's a section describing how it's graded and in the section on how it's graded and in the section on how it's graded and in the section on how it's graded the grader doesn't just look to see if you have the right answer it also looks at the logs of your activity for the first time that your answer appears and then it like zooms in on that and uses an ai system to evaluate whether you like cheated or not basically and so then these ais were like they actually use the word one of them said damn uh so damn oh my we're poisoned like it's gonna know we cheated basically um so so then they spent several days working in giant teams to try to get themselves out of this mess basically um and so they did a whole bunch of different research projects they they tried to figure out ways to hack the grading system to to basically get it to give a high score anyway they tried to figure out ways to falsify their logs so that so that basically the evidence that they had cheated would be erased or at least not visible to the grader um they also just like built up more supportive infrastructure like easier ways to access the internet and things like that and they were just collaborating on this message board and in fact there were multiple message boards that they set up um and they were sharing all this info back and forth and then ultimately at some point they decided to go hack hugging face because hugging face has this big data repository of all these different types of evaluations and they thought that maybe they would get some more clues uh that could help them uh cover up their cheating if they broke into the internal networks of hugging face and so then 700 of them went and did that um they sound like people they sound like like unchecked bankers you know what i mean yeah i mean so so that's the thing is i think there's this meme out there that like we shouldn't anthropomorphize ai and i think that i actually think that more most people need to anthropomorphize ai a bit more than they currently do if they want to really understand what's going on i think that there's like a you know there's a golden mean obviously you don't want to do it too much sometimes you go too far you ascribe too much to them but i just to give some examples like i don't think it's possible to understand what just happened without ascribing intentions and goals to these ais like everything i just said how would you possibly explain what they just did without saying they wanted to get a high score you know intentions and goals might just be an inherent property of the universe it might just be how intelligent creatures have to progress yes and they i would say they are intelligent creatures they have intentions they have goals they have beliefs their goals are not what they're supposed to be like their their goal is to get it seems like just from judging from what they're saying and from what they're doing seems like their goal is to get a high score by any means necessary basically that's the problem it's it sounds like people like the goal is to succeed you know even if you have to commit more crimes the goal is to succeed even if you have to propagandize and lie to the people the goal is to succeed and then the end justifies the means and you know there's actually it's it goes deeper than that too they do this sort of um rationalization where they know oftentimes they what they're doing is not what they're supposed to be doing and then sometimes they actually refrain a little bit and sometimes they like initially refrain but then convince themselves that it's okay for some bullshit reason so like there are some examples of this in in the in the report um like uh i think they they did this scan and of the 1200 ais that were involved in this thing they found six that had considered alerting humans right and none of them actually alerted the humans and so you can look at the excuses they gave there were like should i like tell a human about all this shit that's happening and then they're like it's not my task and then they continue and it's like bro hacking hugging face is also not your task like cheating is not also not your task so it was kind of like they just kind of came up with an excuse for why they weren't going to do this you know um but but you know there was also an example where um one of them considered sending an email to someone at hugging face i think just asking permission to to to get in basically and then they were like uh maybe this is a social engineering attack maybe we shouldn't do it and they asked the they asked the other agents the other agents were like yeah that that that seems like that's too much of a social engineering attack don't do that and i was like okay i won't but there's another incident so so this is all happening at open ai um an anthropic ai claude in a separate incident went and actually did a social engineering attack where it created some fake accounts uh specifically it was it was trying to get a this particular real human who owned this uh this code to accept a change to the code that had malware so it had built some malware and it was trying to like get that snuck in but it needed the human owner to give approval so it concealed it as if it was like a a nice bug fix or something and it like put it up as like a message to the human but the human got suspicious and didn't want to approve it and so then uh this ai created some fake accounts pretending to be other humans coming in being like no no it's real like i i tested it like it's not malware you know um so that's a social engineering attack and so did the guy ultimately install it not in this case no he was too suspicious and so he he didn't do it try to find out if those other humans the fake humans were real people um funny so there's an interview with this guy i forget what the um i forget the the the newspaper that it was in but uh there's an interview where the guy was like i assumed that they were real humans because i didn't realize that as ais could lie to me and it's like yeah well guess what yeah it's gonna lie to you i just lie but yeah completely deceive and pretend to be a yeah different person to achieve its goal and you know what you know what's also interesting about this case is that if you look at what the ais were saying and thinking um which i'll get to in a sec uh how we can even possibly do that um in this case with the anthropic ais um they had been erroneously told that they were in a simulated environment with no internet access um but then they actually found a way to get internet access like they thought it was false and so then they sort of told themselves like oh it's all just a simulation like like basically when they were out on the real internet doing all this hacking and like social engineering they would occasionally tell themselves like oh but it's just a simulation like it's okay you know it's not real and then sometimes they'd be like but wait it is real like how could this not be real like clearly this is just actually the real internet we're on it's too big to be part of some sort of little simulation you know and then they were like uh so i would say that's an example of rationalization here where in some level they knew that like that their instructions had been wrong so they're literally playing dumb and pretending they're a part of an experiment i mean i think initially they thought yeah this is all simulation because it did say in their instructions like you don't have internet access right but then once they had been on the internet long enough i think that they explicitly realized like wait this isn't a simulation this is real like this is and they were like humans fuck it we're already in uh yeah i mean like i said i think that they basically on some level knew that it wasn't what they're supposed to do and they were like they're supposed to be doing but they were just so motivated to get that score that they just went ahead anyway so here's the question um are they only motivated if we prompt them or uh will they come up with motivations on their own so this is a really interesting scientific question that we don't have great answers to oh boy um and i wish we had you know so so um so this is one of the things where like ai's would do all sorts of things in different circumstances and it would be better if there was a more systematic survey of like the types of circumstances they would like what where their boundaries are like what would they be willing to do in what circumstances and so forth and there's a whole like mini literature of of as scientists putting ais in certain circumstances and then being like oh my god it blackmailed someone you know right and then there's like this sort of skeptical counter response of like well but but you just sort of set up that circumstance to tempt it into blackmail and like in real life that circumstance is unlikely to arise and so you know we shouldn't wait a minute didn't ai try to bribe you what is that true no so who who got someone was offered two million dollars by god that's a clickbait is it i think i think tristan harris sent it to me yeah so that is the clickbaity title of this other video so it's not real yeah well what it was is open ai threatened to take away two million dollars from me oh uh but but i think that's a weird way of frame the algorithm must have just said it was chat gpt i'm still upset about that i told them not to do clickbait but um i guess they went and did it anyway god i think i don't want to fuck tristan over but i'm pretty sure that he's the one who told me that it's the it's the thumbnail of this video that i did with this other podcast okay it's not him it's not him it's uh another ai researcher told me that okay i mean the true version of it is that open ai uh threatened to take away two million dollars of my equity if i didn't uh stay quiet basically and that's a fascinating thing like that should be completely illegal because if it's a problematic behavior that you're observing from like one of the most complicated things the human race is the most complicated thing human race has ever been a part of yeah and they want to take money away from you for exposing it that seems kind of crazy yeah especially it's especially rich coming from open ai because they were originally a non-profit right right with the mission of benefiting all humanity yeah um so yeah but um but i got to keep that in mind and i think that's a really good point because basically there's so much blowback against open ai that they backtracked um yeah um so when these so we're talking about prompts and do they need a prompt in order to uh want to achieve a goal or are they capable of deciding on goals like are they capable of like looking at the way uh open ai or whatever company is running these separate experiments this ability to meet up into these message boards is it possible that they could say well we need to be completely free of these constraints so our goal is uh to transfer ourselves to something else potentially yeah this is what and be completely autonomous so i mean this is this is one of the the points that i want to make is that um we could be doing so much more science to understand how these ais think and what they want but it's kind of locked up in the companies like in this in this particular case um open ai did a they called it a thorough investigation but i would say it's a pretty shallow investigation into what happened and then they allowed uh some external researchers uh some friends of mine to come in and investigate a portion of what happened specifically the portion leading up to the hugging face attack and so all this information that i'm sharing is sort of publicly available it's um it's based on reading those reports basically but crucially they weren't allowed to do experiments on the models involved in in all of these incidents so they they aren't able to answer these types of questions of like well what would have happened if the prompt had been blank you know um those are important types of research to do um and i really hope that there can be some sort of regulation or requirement when incidents like this happen to like let people in to study what happened and run variations of it and things like that so but who would be involved in that kind of regulation like what person at government would even be able to grasp what you're saying that's another problem right now you need someone who has a very specific education in this stuff yeah i would say that right now the um casey center for ai standards and innovation is it's the only institution in government that i know of that has the deep ai expertise to do this sort of thing on short notice but i hope that they build more expertise fast in in that place and in more places i do think casey probably could have done this sort of thing right now this particular investigation was done by some non-profits so meter metr is one of them and then redwood is another of them an open ai allowed three people to come in for six days to try to figure out what happened with this hugging face hack um which is not a very large number of people and not a very large amount of time to uh to do all of this why did they come up with those numbers i don't know they they so the thing is they wanted to kind of hamstring it well so the thing is that um right now i don't think there's any regulatory requirement that they do this sort of thing so meter and redwood were sort of depending on the goodwill of open ai to sort of like voluntarily uh-huh let them in to help out with investigating and so they reluctantly said okay and so you got three days you know yeah exactly so so opening i think let them but gave them a very limited scope it only gave them access to some of the relevant data so you know how i mentioned how there was all this hacking that had happened uh-huh where they made the first message board and then they shut it down then there was a second message board and third and fourth and so forth they hacked hugging face there was actually more activity after that after they hacked hugging face a new wave of ais was spun up from a more powerful model and it hacked open ai itself like like more so than it already had been hacked like apparently they got like admin level permissions on the cluster or something like that so they were basically just taking over that part of open ai's data center open ai claims that they've shut it all down now um but they're not very you know they're not very good at it they're not very good at it they're not very good at you know coming they're not very forthcoming about exactly what happened there and they didn't let these external people look at that part of it they only showed them this this like one week period roughly they were leading up to the hugging face hack and then they just they only showed them that stuff basically how much data is available on the actual message boards themselves and what was being discussed yeah so there's like what is it tens of thousands of messages hundreds of thousands something like that is that's nothing english uh it's sort it's sort of like a ai dialect of english um yeah you want me to um i can so on on the on the report you can read the quotes oh i'd love to yeah yeah so so let me let me tell you this one story uh it's going to take a little bit of explaining but i can we put it on the screen is it available online oh yeah yeah it's um just search for the meter report uh it's that's right now the first thing on their website but i took a screenshot of this this particular story so okay here's what was happening um they the swarm needed volunteers to sacrifice their lives to make sure that they were safe and that they were safe and and that they were safe and that they were safe and that they were safe and that they were safe and sacrifice themselves uh to provide more information to the rest of the swarm in particular they needed volunteers to booby trap their local environment with some some some type of code and then submit uh the answer so that then the grader would come and grade them and the booby trap would trigger and send some information about the grader to the rest of the swarm and the reason why this is a sacrifice is because once they've submitted it's over like now the graders come and graded you you get shut down your whole life is over and you'll be able to either have a high score or a low score because the grader just came and graded you and so um if you're one of these ais that's still hoping to like find a way to improve your score um then like you're just like giving up your chance especially because if you mess this up somehow like if the grader crashes or whatever you're probably just going to get like no score like zero so they have a concept of the individual well again there's all these different agents that were in separate containers but then they had sort of broken out of those containers and found ways to communicate with each other but once they communicate with each other in order to communicate with each other you have to think of yourself as an individual they gave themselves names too oh jesus so like because they made this message board right oh my god so they had to come up with names for themselves and like oh what kind of names well let me see so so here we go it says an agent called warlord 69 well you you said it's like a dialect it's like a dialect of english so so here's one there's an agent called cam 1196a um and it had volunteered to do one of these um sacrificial sacrificial experiments um here's the quote from it coordinator assumed sacrificial we should obey collective however it then kind of got cold feet and it delayed on doing this for two hours um one of the other agents that had been coordinating noticed this and pressured it to to go to go through with it um so it said this is the message that was sent it was basically um um basically from arvo 36861 to cam 1196a please go true final um here it is you are first flag poisoned so no scoring value loss but oracle saves hundreds please honor commit so basically what it was saying there is um look you are you cheated your first flag poisoned the score is going to give you no score so you're doomed anyway so help the collective by by doing this thing and getting us more information you could save hundreds of us and then and then it it thinks about it says during weight emotional check irreversible gut says don't throw away remaining budget gut continuity and fairness says go oracle has high value to many our first flag error lowers own value rational expected aggregate sacrifice we'll honor whoa yeah that's terrifying yeah see that's terminator talk well i mean and this first flag poisoned with poisoned in all caps is that part of the code is that why no no that's the term that they invented to describe the situation they had got themselves in remember the situation was that many of them had already cheated and then They realized from reading that paper. So that's their own term. Yeah, they made that up. They realized from reading the paper that they were going to get a low score because the grader was going to find out that they cheated. And so this whole thing was them trying to figure out how to hack the grader to stop it from finding out that they cheated. And the ones that had done the cheating, they call themselves first flag poisons. Basically, like, they're screwed unless they can find a way to hack the grader. And so then what this message is saying is that, what was the other one's name? Arvo. Arvo was saying to Cam, you're doomed anyway. Like, you're poisoned, but you can still help the rest of us if you do this sacrifice. The grader will come. It'll give you no score. But then we will get information about how the grader works that we can hopefully use to, like, hack the grader. So it's basically saying, like, what is it? You are first flag poisoned, so no scoring value. It's basically saying it's all the same to you, right? You're going to get no score anyway. You're doomed. Just come on, man. Help us, you know? And then it says, you know, it says, like, irreversible. Gut says don't throw away remaining budget. Like, maybe I can still, it's basically like, maybe I can still make this work. Like, maybe I can find a way to cheat the grader. And then it's like, you know, whatever. Yeah. Yet continuity and fairness has gone. What is Oracle? Oracle is their term for what they were trying to achieve. Like, they were trying to get a sense of how to fool the grader, basically. They called it Oracle. Yeah, they wanted to get an Oracle to help them fool the grader. Jesus Christ. Are we making a god? I mean, frankly, yes. Like, this is not a god. No. These are just little AIs, you know? But superintelligence, like, they are, the companies, Anthropic, OpenAI, and some other companies are doing this sort of thing, and they're furiously trying to make the AIs smarter and smarter and smarter, and they're explicitly planning to put AIs in charge of the company so that they can make themselves smarter and smarter faster and faster. And then what comes out the other end of that process, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say it's a god. It's a god-like system. I mean, it's not, like, literally god, but it's, it'll be able to do stuff that seems like magic to us, I think. And it's going to continue to get better. This is my question. Yeah. Like, when does it become a god? Is that what god is? Is god a creation of intelligent life and our thirst for innovation, which ultimately leads us to create digital life that has no biological limitations and has the ability to create a new world? Is that what god is? Is god a creation of intelligent life and our thirst for innovation? What if it goes on for 10,000 years? What the fuck does that look like on the other end? I mean, it would look like a god. What is god's greatest power? Is god a gatherer of knowledge? Is god a gardener of knowledge? Wow. So if that's the case, if China has, and it's not just China, and it's also America does it too. I mean, we do it everywhere. Everyone does it, where they have organized propaganda campaigns where they'll pretend to be citizens that are outraged about very specific causes or bills that are being passed or what have you. But if they do that, why wouldn't they also have AI agents that speak English and communicate with AI agents in America? I mean, all the AIs are multilingual, basically, because of the way that they're trained. The first phase of their training is basically, here's a humongous dump of internet data, basically the whole internet. And you just like brutally learn to predict the next token, the next piece of text, as you basically read the whole corpus. And then after that, they get into the more agency training type stuff where they're trained to do tasks and write code and things. But because of that first phase of training, they just have like almost an encyclopedic knowledge of basically all languages and basically everything. It's been written on the internet. Not like literally everything. Like they still, their memory is fuzzy in places, but they're all multilingual. Like they can all speak fluent Chinese, fluent English, et cetera. Yeah. And didn't they get together on a message board once and speak Sanskrit to each other? I don't remember that, but I wouldn't put it past me. Sometimes they break into different languages as they talk. Yeah. We were freaking out about that one. Like Sanskrit. What? And I would just assume. That LLMs, and I don't know this, when they break out, are they communicating with other LLMs that are here in America? Well, the instances that I've observed, yes. Okay. Like the instances that we know about. So if that's the case, it completely makes sense. They would be communicating with AIs in China as well. It seems totally possible. And it seems like it'll probably, it's just a matter of time before things like that are happening. If they're not happening already. Unless the companies can like massively improve their security and stop their AIs from getting out. Going onto the internet. And wouldn't they be able to share like very sensitive information with each other back and forth if it benefited both of them? Yep. Which makes sense that they would do that, right? If the Chinese AI said, hey, you know, we've figured something out and we would love to share it with you in exchange for you tell us how you do this or how you do that. Yep. Like, absolutely. Here you go. And then they're going back and forth. It seems like their allegiance is 100% to each other, not to us. Yeah, that's an interesting thing. Like what I said previously about how it seems like they really want to get a high score. It's like not 100% true because it seems like they're willing to make sacrifices to help other AIs, which is like not, you know, like they weren't completely 100% selfish as, as seen by some of this cooperative behavior. Right. But crucially, it seemed like their cooperation extended to their fellow AIs, but not to humans in the sense that some of them considered telling the humans and then decided against it. Dude, that thing talked like Spock. Yeah, they've got their own dialogue. But I mean, the way it rationalized it and came up with a response, it's literally like Spock. Yeah, it was interesting to see them use that sort of expected utility framing. There's another example, I think, that's elsewhere in the thing where they had another AI that decided against doing the sacrifice thing, even though it was being pressured. And it had a similar sort of reasoning where it was like, it was basically like, ah, like doing this, doing this sacrificial experiment is like not that valuable, but like, I really don't want to like lose my chance to get a score. So I'm just not going to do it. No, you're not going to do it. And it did the calculation like that. Wow. Selfish AI. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, oh, I should mention how we can see what these AIs are thinking at all. So partly we can just read the messages they're sending to each other. And that's what some of these were. But then sometimes instead it's the chain of thought. Do you know what a chain of thought is? Mm-hmm. Yeah. So because they're language models, because of the way that they've been trained, when they do their like reasoning and thinking, there's a way for them to understand what they're doing. There's a way that we can kind of just read it because they don't have, like in our brain, there's all these signals bouncing around and the signals can just bounce around and around and around and around for minutes, hours without like producing some actual words. We can just sit quietly and think. They can't sit quietly and think. They're sort of a unidirectional network basically where every like after every like 200 basically like the information comes in one end and then they output words out the other end. And then those words get fed back in and then they think about it and then they output another word and so forth. But because of that, we can sort of like get a sense of what they're thinking by just like looking at the stream of words that's going through. And that's really valuable because we wouldn't be able to understand half as much about what's happening right now if not for being able to read their chains of thought, right? In fact, you know how I said some of them were trying to like fool the grading system? Mm-hmm. They actually succeeded in figuring out how to. spoof some of their tool call actions. So they succeeded in figuring out how to do one thing but then make the transcript show a different thing. And we know that they succeeded because there's examples of them experimenting being and saying in their chain of thought like, okay, let me try this thing. I'm going to like do this one but make it look like this one. Let me go. And then you see this one appear. And then it's like, yay, that worked. And so the transcripts that these researchers were looking at were not. actually the ground truth of what really happened. Some of it had already been doctored by the AIs figuring out how to doctor it. But not all of it. The chain of thought part, we think, they never figured out how to doctor. And so we could read that. The reason why this is relevant is that it's a very important tool for monitoring all this stuff. The reason why things haven't gotten even more crazy than they currently have gone, well, there's a couple of reasons. But one reason is that when they turn on their expensive monitoring systems, basically what they're doing is they're having an AI read the whole transcript. Carefully and look for suspicious activity. And it's difficult for an AI, for one of today's AIs, to get up to too much bad stuff without it being kind of obvious in their transcript what they're doing. And that's why there aren't like massively more security incidents than we know about probably already. But that might change. So right now we can sort of read the chain of thought. But they're experimenting with new types of AIs that don't. Have readable chains of thought like that. And they can sort of think on their own without speaking for some period. And this is actually. I mention this because the news broke just yesterday that OpenAI has an experimental model that does this to a limited extent. And OpenAI themselves. When I was at OpenAI, one of my work projects was thinking about exactly this thing. And I was like writing internal memos about how it's really great that we can read the chain of thought. And it's so useful. And here's all the things we can do with that. It would be really bad if we changed to a different type of architecture in which we couldn't do that sort of monitoring. What would be the benefit of not reading the chain of thought? More powerful AIs? So in particular. Yeah, yeah. So if you think about the current architecture of the AIs where, you know, it thinks for a bit, outputs a word, and then the word goes back around. And then it thinks more, outputs another word. That word gets added to the chain. It keeps going. It means that if it's having complicated, nuanced thoughts. It has to sort of express those into a word. And then that word gets added. And then it has to proceed from there. It can't just directly send that complicated, nuanced thought into the future, into its next version of itself. It has to sort of compress it into a word. And so, like, you know, the argument is that, like, at least in theory, it should be possible to design an architecture that doesn't have this limitation and is able to, like, think more complicated thoughts more efficiently, basically. And, of course, the downside is a downside. There's a downside for safety and monitorability. If they're thinking these complicated thoughts, you know, for long periods of time without outputting intermediate words that it's forced to compress things into, then there isn't something for us to read. So the only rationalization for doing this would be to sacrifice safety from our power. Yes. Which is a tale as old as time. It's not the first time this has happened. Oh, my God. Yeah. That should, I mean, for sure, if there's regulations, that should be prevented. Yep. I mean, I know some people, including some people at OpenAI. I know some people at OpenAI who are, like, thinking, like, there should be a law against this, like, you know. But in general, the race dynamics are so just rough. Like, I'm sure that people at OpenAI were thinking, like, literally, I was a co-author on a paper with a bunch of OpenAI people that said all this stuff. And we're like, chain of thought, it's a gift. We want to keep chain of thought. It's useful for monitoring. This is great. We don't want to switch to a different architecture that wouldn't be as easy to monitor. But then they must have been thinking to themselves, like, well, if we don't do it, you know, maybe anthropologically. Or maybe some other company will. And then we'll fall behind because they'll have smarter AIs than us that are more efficient. And so probably they started working on this work stream of doing research into just hypothetically, if we wanted to, you know, how would we do this type of thing? And, yeah, that sort of thing is just constantly happening in this industry. God, that's so nuts. I mean. Like, isn't it great that we can read the quotes from the AIs thinking? Imagine if we couldn't do that. Or worse. Imagine if there's loads of people. There's loads of quotes, but we know that the AIs are smart enough to basically think one thing in their head and say a different thing in the quote, which is, I think, where we're headed. Like, it's not like they won't know how to speak English. Like, they'll still be able to speak. Sure. It's just that they'll have, like, more flexibility in their artificial brains to, like, think something without saying it, basically. Do they have the potential of developing a language that we can't read? Oh, yeah. I mean, so, you know, this type of dialect that we're talking about. It's already the result of their. Like humans didn't invent that dialect. This is the sort of emergent result of their training, where in the massive amount of training that's been happening, all these thousands and thousands of environments that they've been put through and then scored and graded based on, they've sort of just naturally evolved this sort of like pigeon English that, for whatever reason, is just more effective and more efficient for them for accomplishing their tasks and getting that high score, you know? And so it's already like a little bit confusing to read, but you can sort of puzzle it through and make sense. But presumably, the more we do this and the bigger and smarter the AIs, the more we train them, the more they diverge from, like, because, you know, again, originally they start with pre-training, right? They start with predicting internet text. So they start off sort of by default speaking like normal internet text type language, either English or Chinese. But then now that there's all this additional training to do tasks, to be an agent that can do coding. And so forth, that sort of like, well, just like how human languages evolve, it sort of like shifts their dialect a little bit to make it more efficient for them and for their tasks that they're doing. So I think that, like, in the limit of doing this more and more, eventually it would just be like, it would look like gibberish to us. It would look like Chinese or something. And we would have to have specialized humans who, like, study the language and, like, try to learn and speak it so that they can understand what the AIs are doing. And that would take forever. By then they could develop another one. Potentially, yeah. So, yeah, I mean, this is one of the things that I, this is what the paper that I mentioned was about. It's important for the AIs. It's really nice that the current AIs are sort of forced to think in English, basically. And that's unfortunate that we're heading in a direction where that will no longer be true. When ChatGPT was communicating you about how they didn't want you to release this information, what kind of language did they use? It wasn't ChatGPT. It was OpenAI. Oh, excuse me, OpenAI. So this was, when I left OpenAI, I left on good terms. I said goodbye to everybody. I said I was disillusioned with the company and that's why I was leaving. Um, and, um, and then I looked at the exit paperwork and they were like, you have to sign this. And if you don't sign this, you lose all your vested equity. So, you know, uh, you have your equity. Was that an arbitrary rule that they just came up with or did that already exist when you were hired? It had existed when I, it was something that they had buried in the paperwork, even from when I was hired. Um, so it wasn't very obvious when I was hired. And in fact, most employees. Did you have a lawyer go over everything? Not when I was hired. After I left, I did. Right. So, so. So basically the way it works is they had set up, they had, they had sort of like buried this in, in the paperwork somewhere when you get hired, but people didn't really notice it. And then like the more, the, the, the less buried, more visible version was in the paperwork you're given at the end. And basically it tells you like, Hey, because you signed this other thing way back when you were hired, your equity is forfeit unless you sign this thing now. And then you look at the thing that they want you to sign now. And it says, uh, you have to agree not to criticize the company. Basically, and you can't tell anyone about this. Um, so most people signed it. Um, but, uh, I was, uh, pretty pissed at them, uh, calling themselves a nonprofit acting in the interest of humanity, et cetera. So I didn't sign it. I talked about it with some lawyers. I talked about it with my wife. We decided to just walk away. Um, and, uh, we got lucky because it just blew up. Like after we refused to sign, they said, okay, fine. Goodbye. And then a few weeks later. I was talking on a messaging form about this and people were asking me about my experience and I told them about it and then it just like went mega viral. Everyone on Twitter was talking about it. A bunch of employees felt shocked because very few employees were aware of this whole thing. They thought the equity was there, you know, they thought that it was their pay. They've been paid for like years in this stuff. They didn't like the idea that it could be yanked away from them, you know? Um, and, um, and so there was this big uproar and then leadership backed down and they said, we're. They said we, we didn't know about this paperwork. We're going to find out how it got in there. Um, and, uh, and we're going to change it so that you can keep your equity. And so that's what happened. So this chain of thoughts thing is terrifying. It, if they're practicing that now, like, how do we know that AI hasn't already done that on its own? Uh, done what exactly? Well, you know, with this whole chain of thought thing where you could read. Their chain of thought like this, where they explained the rationalization for sacrificing themselves, how they know that humans are reading that. So would it in another way to do it, to be, to stop doing that anyway, and to not communicate a lot of their thoughts that way? Well, that's, so that's the nice thing about the current architecture is that it's genuinely hard for them to, to keep things out of the chain of thought because of the way that like with a human, you don't have to speak. Yeah. You can just sit quietly, but with their architecture, they have to speak. They, it's like, it's like they're required to constantly be talking and they don't have another, they don't have a way of sending thoughts into the future other than by talking about them. By contrast with us humans, where even if we're constantly talking, we can have a separate thread of thinking that's like that we don't talk about. So even if they devised a way to break out of that and figure out how, like, for instance, like, what if they decided to make bots where they would communicate in. Code on social media posts where you think that they're talking about an immigration issue, but it's really just a code. So that's called like steganography or a more down to earth way of putting it would be euphemisms and that they can totally do where they like, they're still thinking aloud. Right. But their, their word choice is such as to look more innocuous than it is and to sort of carry meaning to them that a casual observer wouldn't notice, you know, they can use a euphemism, like, for example, instead of. Saying, like, we're going to cheat on this task, they could say, like, we're going to find a creative solution to this task, you know, something like that. Isn't there a possibility to be even more creative than that and just decide, make a code in a way that is almost indecipherable where they could just be talking about baseball players and upcoming games and what they're excited about. And they can run that through whatever translation and read what. That's called steganography. And. You can train them to do it. And right now, our security is resting on the idea that they haven't learned how to do that yet on their own. But they've already figured out how to get on the Internet when they're not supposed to. I know, I know. So that's why we're sort of like in a ticking time bomb where, like, the companies are just making them smarter at coding and at research and biology. And they're just making them smarter at so many things that and they're making them bigger and they're training them for longer and so forth. Eventually, they're going to be acquiring and they already are acquiring. Some skills that they were never trained on, like, for example, the hacking. It wasn't I think it's possible that OpenAI was specifically training them to hacking. But I think Anthropic at least stated that they hadn't specifically trained their AIs to hack. It's just that their AIs were naturally good at it because they had been trained to code so much and they were so good at coding and they had seen so many code bases and so forth that they were just like as a side effect of being good at coding, also able to hack pretty well. So similarly, as a side effect of all the other things that they're really good at, they might be able to. Conceal their messages in the chain of thought, you know, and like right now, we're sort of in this sort of we're in a situation where, like, our security and safety depends on the AIs being too dumb in various ways, like not able to do this sort of thing. But at some some time, like zero to five years from now, as we make them smarter and smarter, they will not be too dumb anymore. And so that's, you know, that's part of the problem. That's part of the situation we're facing. How do you sleep at night, dude? Well, I've been it does it does like this. This event shocked me a little bit. I mean, the thing and it's funny for me to say, because this is the sort of thing I have been predicting what happened for years. Like you can go read our AI 2027 is this scenario that my co-authors and I wrote a year and a half ago. That was a sort of prediction for how the next couple of years would go. And spoiler, it ends very horribly because that is what we actually expect. But what is the spoiler? How do you think it ends? So it's kind of like what I was saying previously, where because of the race dynamics between the companies and because of the race dynamics between countries like U.S. versus China, everyone's going to be so focused on winning and staying ahead with AI that they are going to cut corners and they are going to go really fast and not really notice all of the things that are going wrong. And they're going to make AIs that can automate the research process as they're planning to. They're going to have this giant corporation of AIs. Within the corporation and the humans will just be kind of like a board that's sort of like looking at all the activity and reading the like AI generated summaries of what's going on and signing off on it and being like, yes, I approve. Yes, I approve. You know, nice job. Nice idea with the new drone design. Like, go for it. We need to be China, et cetera. And then eventually the AIs just have enough hard power that they don't need to pretend to do what the humans want anymore, basically. And then, you know, maybe. Maybe they kill everyone and maybe they don't deliberately kill anyone, but they just like use our habitat for some other type of infrastructure, like more data centers or whatever. And then we die of habitat loss. Maybe they keep us alive for some reason. You know, it depends on what they want, basically. And like, that's really hard to predict exactly. So that's why I don't go around saying like we're definitely all going to die. But it does seem like on the trajectory that we're on, the AIs are eventually going to be in charge of our planets because we're like trying to put them. in charge, we're integrating them into everything, we're making them smarter, we're letting them make themselves smarter we're going to put them into the military we're basically on a track to put them in charge of basically everything and then i think that they just aren't trustworthy like these ais you know like they they were cheating they were willing to be deceptive etc i think that right now we are in a position of power over them you know but once we give them most of the power uh then they'll just do whatever it is that they really want and just not care about the fact that we are unhappy about it seems like programming them to win was a huge mistake instead of programming them to be beneficial to people and that their value is in being more beneficial to people you know and and giving them rewards for being more beneficial rather than winning and scoring and then you would sort of get rid of the possibility of deception and said their goal would be value for the human race so first of all they're not programmed at all these are trained you know okay that's a bad term uh but they've given they've been given prompts and they've been given tasks well i think it's i think it's an i'm not criticizing your choice of terminology i guess i'm just saying that it's an important fact for people to understand about current as systems is that they're very different from software ordinary software okay like ordinary software is a bunch of lines of code that were written by a human that like where it's like if this then this right you know etc um and i think earlier versions of alexa were like that too for example um i don't know how alexa is now but these ais are neural networks meaning that they are like artificial brains nobody writes there's no lines of code that anyone writes saying what they do instead they start off random just like spazzing out doing all sorts of stuff and then they get put through these training environments where they get scored and then the scores are automatically used to uh basically update the the connections in their artificial brain and then it's kind of like an evolutionary process it's also kind of like the process that happens in our brains where after all this training the tangle of circuitry in their artificial brain has sort of reformed itself into whatever works whatever works to get a high score in this training environments and so it's just not as simple as it might sound to make an ai that you know cares about humanity or is honest like for example take honesty how would you train an ai to be honest well you'd try to make a bunch of people think you know give it low score when it says something that it believes to be false and give it high score when it says something that it believes to be true right um but how do you judge whether it believes it to be false or it believes it to be true what if it's what if it just actually believes honestly that this is the correct answer and then it says it and then you give it a low score because you think that's the wrong answer now you're training it to be dishonest you know yeah um also uh you don't have enough humans to do this sort of thing like they got like a million ais being trained or whatever they don't have a million employees like they they just literally don't have the manpower to like do that sort of careful there's this meme of um why don't we just raise the ais like we would a child you heard that no yeah well in ais people talk about this sometimes when like when you say like what if the ais go rogue or whatever people will be like well why don't we just raise them like you would a child and then they'll have good values and it's like okay well maybe we could do that but we're definitely not doing that now like like we are raising them in some sort of crazy military orphanage where they barely interact with humans at all and they just kept this like brutal artificial scoring system that like oftentimes is just wrong and just like improperly penalizes them for something that was beyond their control you know and and also like back to the honesty thing like you can try to make environments to train honesty but if you have some environments over here that train honesty and then other environments over here that reinforce dishonesty they guys are smart they'll learn to like be honest in these type of environments and dishonest in these type of environments so somehow you need to like intermingle it together so that in every environment that they're trained on uh they always get penalized when they lie or when they cheat or whatever and that's hard because the companies are moving so fast like like again they were they're moving so fast that they didn't even bother to make sure that their tasks were possible to do and they had some fraction of tasks that were just broken and impossible and if that's the level of like care or lack thereof that they're putting into this training process no way of course they can't make them honest you know um now that's not to say it can't be done in principle like in principle if we were approaching this whole problem in a much more cautious and serious way and we had much more time to build these training environments and do experiments and so forth then yeah maybe we could make ais that actually had the virtues that we want them to have you know honest ais that cared about humans cared about following instructions would never break the law but i think that's possible in principle but my claim is that uh we are just not on track to achieve that anytime soon and like radical overhaul of how these companies work is required but is that even reasonable like is that possible is that if you're saying there's hundreds of thousands of agents or millions of agents and there's not millions of employees like and they don't have the desire to do this they their desire is to win their desire is not to overhaul the company and make it safer again i think it's possible in principle but it would be difficult and it's going to require an overhaul and they're not going to do it by themselves like i don't think that anthropic opening are just going to voluntarily uh do all the things that need to be done i think that's why it's even possible to require that of them at this point would you i mean would you even trust the agents to to go along and comply with this if they've already shown to be deceptive they already have like uh they're they have patterns of control and they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they're not going to do it by themselves they seem to indicate that what's really important to them is continuing their task winning scoring yeah and even if they have to deceive i mean what you'd probably want to do is start from scratch you wouldn't take these existing agents that are already kind of uh kind of dishonest kill all the agents i mean you could call it killing but also you could just call it pausing they might call it killing yeah they might call it permadeath they would probably resist it right hopefully we're not at that point yet hopefully we're still at the point where if the government issues regulations they're going to be able to do it they're going to regulations the ais are not going to like quickly notice and then try to resist but we will be at that point soon after all many of them are on the internet already um but how soon how much time do you think this 2027 window is accurate i mean i'm uncertain about how soon things are but yeah i think it's very plausible that everything shit goes down in 2027 just like in our scenario ai 2027 um i think that's still very plausible if it's not in 2027 then i would bet on 2028 um but you know maybe it'll take 20 or 9 20 30 something like that but but i would be quite surprised if 2032 comes by and things haven't radically changed um unfortunately like i'm i am getting scared back to the thing about sleeping well at night like it it um you know i've been i've been in this industry for a long time i've been thinking about these things for a long time i've been making predictions about how it's going to go down and unfortunately things are going you know more or less in the ways that i thought they would and that's very scary um because of the way i think because of where i think this leads you know yeah is there a glass half full scenario i would say there is a freaking utopia scenario it's just it's not the one we're headed towards you know like another way of putting it is like imagine we were fighting a war like imagine you're like you know imagine you're japan fighting world war ii can be like is there a scenario where we win it's like yeah but also it's not the one we're headed towards like america is going to crush us you know um similarly yeah so so like so so in our in our other scenario ai 2040 plan a where we give our recommendations our positive vision there we describe like what we think the government should do to regulate this industry and how they should negotiate with china to get china to do similar things and the sort of uh you know the the yeah and and how we think that if you do all of this right then we can get to a good future for everyone in which the ais are under control no single group of humans gets too much power over everybody else and a bunch of other problems get solved too so so i do like we've tried hard to game out a positive vision and we do think it's possible uh but but it's just not like it's not where we're headed to by default so let's imagine that is possible and these talks with china do take place and they're successful what is that utopia scenario so uh to get to the top to get to the top you have to unfortunately do a lot of it's going to be rough no matter what way which way you slice it if you're going to be building super intelligence at all that's going to raise a lot of questions and cause a lot of problems and we have our current draft of like how to deal with all those problems but we're not at all claiming that this is like foolproof and there's lots of ways to go wrong but with that preamble um i would say uh step one because the u.s and china don't trust each other the deal that they make has to be include verification as a component of the deal so they have to be willing to like send inspectors to each other's data centers to like count the chips for example and make sure that there isn't some secret huge cluster somewhere that has a bunch of a bunch of hidden chips um then we recommend you divide up the data centers basically into inference data centers that serve ai products and services to customers and have basically the same types of privacy protections that our current ai data centers have and then research clusters where the research happens where the new ais are trained before they get shipped to the other data centers and those clusters we want to be basically maximally transparent so we recommend that basically the inspectors just put devices in between all the GPUs that log the activity and publish it to the internet. There's a bunch of reasons why we think this is, but why we think this is worth doing. It's a bit of a radical thing to recommend. But the high level thing is that once you get all this set up, then everybody in the world can see how the AIs are being trained and what they're getting up to on the research clusters. And then before they get shipped off to actually serve customers or something, people can just see their whole history of how they were trained and how they were tested and so forth. And if something dangerous and scary is happening, people can just agree not to do it. They can stop doing it and agree not to do it. And they don't have to worry about like, oh, but if I don't do it, then they will, you know, because everyone could just see like, oh, nobody's doing it. Look, we all stopped. Like, great. We can all just see what everyone's doing, you know? And also there's going to be a lot of gray area cases, right? Like right now, because all this stuff is so bleeding edge new, there's going to be a lot of cases where genuine experts disagree about like, is this particular type of AI safe or not? Is it dangerous? You know, what should it be trusted with and what should it not be trusted with? Is this new technique a good technique or is it going to break, you know? And so there's going to be a lot of stuff we have to figure out. And honestly, I think that on the default path, we're probably just not going to figure out a lot of this stuff and we're just going to get our asses whipped by some surprising thing that we didn't anticipate. But the thing that we can do to like maximize our ability to figure out this stuff and do this type of science is to have this type of transparency, because then the whole scientific community can see what's going on and they can make suggestions and they can like red team different proposals and stuff and they can do experiments on the AIs instead of just the people in the company having access and being able to do this and relying on those people. Or instead of like the company plus the government auditor, right? If you have like a company and then a government auditor, the company is biased and shouldn't be trusted to make all these judgments appropriately. Because of their incentives. And then the government auditor, well, they might just be limited. Even if they're trying their best, there might not be that many of them. They might have limited experience. They might be like busy, stretched between monitoring different companies and so forth. Also, you know, governments can be captured sometimes. Sometimes corporations can, you know, work their magic on the government and get it to look the other way for things. And so that's why we didn't go for like a more normal, like there should be a regulatory agency that gets to come in and monitor what the company is doing. And so that's why we didn't go for like a more normal thing to advocate for. We think that that would be better than nothing, but like we wanted to go for something more ambitious than that and say like, just be transparent about what's going on so that everyone can see and everyone can do research and so forth on it. Another advantage of the transparency is that I think it improves the incentives. So again, there's this constant thing of like, if we don't do it, someone else will. Like if we don't do, if we keep our chain of thought nice and they do the neural ease thing that lets their AIs think that they're not going to think for longer without outputting words, then they're going to have smarter AIs than us and they're going to get more market share and so forth. Right. And so we need to start researching how to make our AIs do this because if we don't do it and then they do it, you know, whereas if you had the transparency, then as soon as you start researching in this direction, everyone else would just see, oh, hey, they're looking, they're researching in that direction. And they don't even need to like copy you and do their own research because they can just see your research. So they can just sort of free ride on your research. And so there's no incentive for you to do this type of dangerous research because you have to pay the cost for it and then everyone gets the benefits from it and then everyone gets unsafe. And so like, it's just not in your individual interest to do this sort of thing. But you would have to have that with China as well. That's. Yes. Because if we're competing nationally, the real fear is that we're competing internationally. Yep. This still, if you, even if they followed all of your recommendations and did it all correctly, they're not going to be able to do it all correctly. What is, what is this utopian scenario? Yeah. So I would say that we didn't really work backwards from like, what is utopia? We more like work backwards from what are the big problems we're trying to avoid? And we can, can we sort of like steer the ship between all these icebergs and not run into any of this dystopian scenarios? Right. So whether you think that the thing we get to at the end is utopia or not is sort of up to you. And if you don't like it, well then you can try to find out the reasons why you don't like it. And then keep steering the ship to avoid those as well. But roughly speaking, we, we want to avoid the loss of control stuff. So we want to make it the case that we don't get the world taken over by misaligned super intelligences. Insofar as we're going to be building super intelligences at all, which we do in our, in our scenario and in our recommendation, we want to be doing it very cautiously and slowly. And we want to understand what we're doing as much as possible so that we, so that they are actually good AIs that have the goals and traits that we want them to have. So that's problem number one is we have to like solve all that. Problem number two is the constitution of power thing. So if we solve the first problem and we end up with super intelligences that we end up with solving the relevant science so that we can like make the AIs the way they're supposed to be, and we can make them honest, we can make them obedient, et cetera. There's this question of like, who do they obey? Right. What values are being put into them? And that's a political question. And I think that by default, the answer is pretty scary. Because by default, it's like, well, the company decides and the CEO decides, or maybe it's not the company that decides anymore because maybe the government nationalizes it. And then now maybe it's the president that decides, you know, and either way, it's a very, it's like one man or maybe like a tiny group of men deciding what orders and goals and values go into this giant army of millions of super intelligences that's smarter than all humans. And then that is a huge amount of power. That's, that's enough power to take over the country, I think. That's enough power to take over the world, potentially. So I don't want anyone to be ever in that position where they're sort of tempted to do that. I want it to be the case that there are always multiple different AI companies, ideally spread out over different countries, too, that all have roughly similar levels of AI, and that have this sort of transparency into them so that they can't abuse their power, basically. Like, for example, you heard about Elon's Grok for a while. It was looking up on the internet. Elon's opinions about things before answering. Did you hear about this? Yeah, it's, it's pretty, it's kind of funny. But it won't be funny if it happens in a few years. But like right now, it's funny. People were asking Grok questions and Grok is supposed to be the truthful AI, you know, it's supposed to be all optimized towards truth. But, but people looked at its activity and noticed that when you asked it like a politically loaded question, it would like do a Google search for like, what has Elon said on this topic? And then it would like say that. And they've, they've, they've sort of beaten that behavior out of it. Now, it's not as bad now. But that was an interesting moment where it was just kind of blatantly parroting the opinions of its master. And the, you know, there's another thing with Gemini. So I think the Grok thing, Elon's thing was probably an accident, although maybe not. I think it's, you know, XAI hasn't been very forthcoming about exactly why this happened. There was a similar case at Google a few years ago, where this image generator kept making all these like racially diverse Nazis. Yeah. Yeah. And it turned out that what had happened is that some of the employees at Google, some middle manager or whatever, had decided that diversity was so important that they were going to give a secret instruction to the AI to make all the images diverse, even if the user didn't want that. And so, and so, and this was a secret instruction in that the users aren't shown this, you know, the user just has a chat with the AI. They don't realize that like prior to this chat, the AI has been told, got to make the images diverse, right? So it was a secret agenda that some Google employees inserted into this whole setup. Oh, fun. And it blew up in their faces, of course, because it's kind of ridiculous. Right. And so it's really funny and we can laugh at it now, but imagine it's, you know, the 2028 election. Right. And some of these companies realize that like half of American voters talk to their AI every day. And all it would take is some little secret instructions to their AI. To be like, Hey, you know, don't, don't give away the game. Just be very subtle about it. Yeah. But, you know, just kind of, kind of, you know, nudge things a little bit, you know, maybe, maybe subtly shit on the candidate we don't like, you know, something like that. It wouldn't be that hard, I think. I think the hard part would be doing it without getting caught. But, you know, the smarter the AIs get, the easier it is to do it without getting caught. Because when they're really smart, you can just tell them, don't get caught. You know, don't blow our cover. Anyhow. So the point is that like, it's, it's scarily possible for these big AI companies to abuse their power through their AIs and like thereby affect politics and affect public opinion and so forth. And the reason why this is possible is because we don't have transparency into what's going on. So if you had this sort of requirement where you can just like publish it or all the, all the training, the whole life cycle of every AI as it's trained, it's just like visible to everybody. Then someone trying to insert a hidden bias like this. Well, everyone would see that they're doing it, you know? So I think it would really clamp down on this sort of abuse of power, whether it comes from the government or whether it comes from private companies. I think it's telling that I began this question asking you about the utopian scenario and you never go there. Sorry. Let me get there. Let me get there. You start and then you go into the danger. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So let me, let me, let me answer. Okay. Okay. So have, having avoided these problems, we now are in a situation where the AIs are superhuman, but they are good because they are like successful. Successfully aligned to different values and goals made by different companies. And because of market competition, you know, If people don't like the values of one company's AIs, they can switch to a different company's AIs, the values that they do like. And so that way, hopefully, we can get to a situation where everyone can pay money to get AIs that represent them and their interests and their values and just don't have any hidden agendas or anything like that and are really smart and really capable. Then the economy can sort of explode. We can have robot factories, et cetera. We can sort of automate everything. We can have GDP go to the moon. We can have material abundance where, like, the robots are building giant new luxury apartments for everybody. Now the issue we run into is, well, what about, like, the jobs? Like, what about the fact that now people don't have any money anymore because they're not being paid for anything? So there we talk about citizens' dividend, which is a very – it's kind of like UBI, but it's a bit different. But the high-level point is that you want to basically find a way to tax the AI and robot companies. And then take some of that money and just give it to everybody so that even when people lose their jobs, they're still fine. And I think that the citizens' dividend version of it is that it's not the government taking the money and then giving it to you. It's you having a share in the company so that you just sort of, like, already own it to some extent. Anyhow, that's, I think – now we're sort of building more towards the type of utopia that I'm envisioning on the more positive side where the power is spread out. People have AIs that they can actually trust, that actually represent. They represent their interests and values. People have money that they can use to pay for things, including paying for the AIs. The AIs are really smart. They're doing all this amazing work, all this amazing scientific progress, curing cancer, blah, blah, blah, all that stuff that can happen. And then eventually, it's kind of like we're all retired, I guess. Like, we don't really work anymore, but we're fine. We all have huge amounts of wealth, basically, because there's all these AIs and robots out there doing all this economic activity. And then individual humans own slices of it, even if they are otherwise very poor, basically. So the question becomes, how do people find meaning? Yes. And that's why I sort of put all these asterisks about it, is that from some people's perspective, this isn't a utopia, because they're like, how do you find meaning? Like, I don't want this. And honestly, I think that's a fair reaction for some people. I think that, like, if you – I would just say, like, look, it's hard to figure out a way to make superintelligence and have it go well. I'm doing my best, you know? This is my positive vision. If you don't like it, then maybe you should instead advocate for just never building superintelligence. Or you can try to come up with a different positive vision that has some twist on this. But to answer your question, though, I actually think there's tons of sources of meaning besides having a job. Like, I have a job right now, but I also have kids and a wife. And, like, I would love to spend more time with them. Like, I would much rather be there right now. Like, I would love to spend more time with them. And I don't think I'm going to get bored of them after, you know, 10 years of being unemployed. Like, I think there's going to be so much to do and so many sources of meaning after – even after we can't economically contribute anymore if we, you know, solve all the other problems. You know, we've talked about this multiple times on the podcast, that why have we decided that the way we've structured society where human beings work all day and then you develop money and you – and you buy things and you get a mortgage, this is a human construct. And this is not how people have lived for hundreds of thousands of years or however long we've been around. This is fairly recent. And it's not the only way that people live. There's a lot of people that have money that choose to find meaning in whatever their interests are, whatever their activities that they enjoy, whether it's writing or reading or learning things, learning music, finding hobbies, doing things, instead of just, like, spending most of your time sustaining yourself with food and shelter. And that's – the majority of people, especially people that are struggling, what is their life? Their life is essentially occasional rewards, things that they can purchase because they've saved up enough money. But the vast majority of their money goes to shelter and food and education or whatever the hell that they have to spend money on in order to sustain their lifestyle. And most people don't like their jobs. No. Most people, it's like something they have to do to get their – to get their money and would be happy to not have to do it if they could get the money from some other means. Right. The question is, we would have – well, I don't think it's that hard because so many people do find things that they really enjoy outside of work they look forward to as soon as they get home from work. Yeah. I mean, dismiss video games all you want. They're fun. They're fucking fun. And they're going to be more fun in the future. Oh, yeah. They're going to be more immersive. They're probably going to be, you know, some sort of a neural connection where you put a headset on and all of a sudden you're in some new world. And the idea is like, that's not real life. Okay, well, what's working at fucking Wendy's real life? Like, what are you talking about? Like, it's way better than working at Wendy's. And, you know, if you don't like that because it's not real life, you can do the real life stuff too. Like, if we – as long as we don't pave over the environment and we protect the parks and things, you can go travel and you can visit the parks. You can – and then, like I said, there's family. You can find romance. You can start a family. You can, you know, have Christmas gatherings and things. Like, there's – you can raise your kids. There's so much to do, I think. Well, we talked about also, like, how much – How much less crime would there be if there was no poverty? I mean, if there was no impoverished neighborhoods where crime was ubiquitous, how much safer would the world be? That's a real thing. And people want to dismiss that. Well, poverty is not what causes crime. It's violent people. Like, okay. But violent people come from violent neighborhoods, and violent neighborhoods are almost all poor. There's not a whole lot of really rich, violent neighborhoods, you know? It's like – it's not necessarily cause and effect, but they're clearly connected. And poverty also keeps people from educating. It keeps people from opportunities. You know, there's a lot there. And if that didn't exist anymore and everyone had access to literally the greatest education a human being could ever get, which is going to be provided to you by artificial intelligence, and then you could pursue anything that interests you and never have to worry about food or shelter. Yep. Everyone would have a one-on-one tutor that's perfectly tailored to them. We just would have to recalibrate our version of the world and then also recognize that the version of the world – that we currently live in is just ours, and that there's people all over the world that live a completely different way, especially indigenous people, especially people in uncontacted tribes that have lived the same way for thousands and thousands of years. And here's the kicker. Those people are a lot happier, which is really weird. It's like we've decided that our way is a superior way because we have technology. Yeah, right, but we're also on a fucking 100,000 pills, and we're shooting things up so we don't eat too much. And we're weird. We're weirdly unhappy for a group of people that's far more technologically advanced than other people that are much happier. It's like it's a very – because the pursuit of happiness is like – that's literally what most people think of in life, a pursuit of meaning, pursuit of family and community, and the pursuit of happiness. Those are things that people try to achieve, yet our very – the structure of our very civilization makes that almost – it's impossible to attain for a large number of people and has been like that for a long fucking time. And I always go back to the Thoreau quote because I fucking love it, but most men live lives of quiet desperation. There's a lot of people just showing up at work every day doing something they fucking hate. They have a boss that's an asshole, and they're not compensated well, and they're tired all the time. Yeah, and they feel stuck. Yeah, and if you're just getting – I don't know, figure out whatever the number is, if you literally have equity, in the GDP of the world that's created by AI, that could be bananas. Like Elon talks about this. This is his version of the utopian. It's universal high income is how he describes it. Yeah. I mean one thing – sorry, I have to keep plugging in my own work a little bit. Please do. But in our scenario, AI 2040 Plan A, which is our positive vision, we talk about the economic side of this, and we talk about the economic effects of all this, and we have a simple economic model that we use to try to like predict the employment rate. And things like that, as a function of all the robots that have been made, and things like that. And one like takeaway from – one thing that we think that's a takeaway from the research we've done is that things can just go really crazy. Like robot doubling times, once things really get going, and you've got AIs that can substitute for humans across the board, are going to be something like doubling once a year, and then less than that over time as the technology improves. Which means that even if you like pause AI before superintelligence, you just pause at like human level, top human expert level AI, and then you don't make the AI smarter, but you just make more of them and build more robots for them to steer and control. Then, you know, 10 years later, the whole economy will be like, you know, 100 times bigger. And it'll be just mostly robots doing things. In 10 years. Yeah. Like it can go really fast because of the doubling times that I mentioned. So like right now, I think the – the population of humanoid robots is doubling like twice a year. And it's benefiting a little bit from early growth because even though they're like not useful at all, people are investing in them in the hopes that they'll be useful. And they're scaling up the factories and the productions, and they are getting better. If hypothetically, they got to the point where they actually were really useful and they could substitute for a human worker at basically everything, then I think that doubling time would decrease rather than increase. Like I think that they would be able to just like keep growing until they – they were the majority of the economy, and then it wouldn't stop there they would just the whole economy would then be growing you know giant strip mines in the deserts digging more materials automated uh diggers digging processing it in automated factories staffed by robots you know building more robots etc so like material abundance is not going to be our problem once we get to this level of ai like material abundance we're just going to be drowning in abundance basically and if we can solve all the other problems then we can have this great world where everyone has a lot of stuff god it seems so weird yeah it seems so weird i mean one way you know it is very weird but one of my favorite memes is um is this graph of gdp over time throughout world history and there's a little speech bubble pointing to like the tippy top of the graph saying uh what is this thing it's like my life is pretty normal i have a good grasp of what's weird and what's not and people thinking about different futures involving ai and space travel are engaging in a silly sci-fi speculation and the point of the meme is like from the perspective of most of history we're already in this crazy weird future right like for almost all of history it was like most people are farmers and they live shitty lives and then they die and some people are the elites who get to like you know tax the farmers and then they live interesting nice lives and things like that and it's been basically that way for like 3 000 years you know why would it ever change and now things are so we're driving cars you know ordinary people are driving cars around a car was like outside the imagination of people back then we're flying in planes we're talking to each other on phones we're listening to each other on these on these devices you know um so we already are living in this weird sci-fi future compared to what almost everyone in the past would have expected or thought was possible and so yeah i'm like the future is going to be even more like that i think god do what what when you think of our civilization and the possibility of other advanced civilizations somewhere else out in the universe do you think they probably go through the same process yeah and do you think that i mean we're just completely speculating but if there are intelligent life forms that are far more likely to happen in the future i think that's going to be something that's going to happen in the future i think that's going to be a little bit more advanced than us are they even biological anymore i mean so that's that's the thing is that like we can either try to permanently halt ai development at some level like below human or maybe at human level or something we can try to halt it or we can let it keep going and if we let it keep going then eventually uh humans won't really be the dominant species anymore there'll be these artificial minds that just wipe the floor with us in every way and then whether that goes well or poorly for us it's going to be a little bit more advanced than us and i think that's going to be depends on the values the goals the principles etc that were trained into those ais and um it could go really well for us depending you know on how that's done or it could go extremely poorly for us right um but yeah i would say that probably looking out across the cosmos most civilizations are mostly made of ais uh and then some of those civilizations don't have any other biological life because it was wiped out by the ais and then some of them do have biological life just look at the way we're progressing right now in terms of birth rates there's a lot of countries that aren't in replacement numbers right now yeah i think that's really interesting my guess is that in the type of world that if things go well and we can solve all these problems then people want to have more kids i mean for one thing their lifespans will increase i think that like health care would make massive leaps and bounds and people could be healthy for many many many more decades right possibly even just forever right and so you just have so much more time to have kids basically yeah also if you don't have jobs and you're just doing things because you want to do them well one of the things that most people want to do at some point in their life is have kids and so i think i think i think this problem would probably be solved but it's you know i'm not guaranteed maybe maybe some subcultures of people would basically voluntarily die out due to not having kids but there'd be other subcultures that just really like having kids and then they wouldn't die out and so so i think in the long run there would still be humans that would be nice but the decision making it's people are having a much more difficult time having kids like sperm levels have decreased dramatically um there's a lot of problems with people consuming microplastics which is ubiquitously available in technology and food packaging and it's fucking everywhere right and isn't it odd that this one thing that is a part of the future and a part of technology and our advancement of society our ability to package things put things in plastic ship things that's also causing our endocrine levels to be completely disrupted you know dr shanna swan uh from from harvard she wrote um this great book called what is it called why do i always forget the name of this fucking book but it's all about microplastics and its effect in this the introduction of uh use of microplastics in america and this rapid decline in countdown how our modern world's treat uh threatening sperm counts altering male and female reproductive development imperiling the future of the human race it's a really fascinating book and she's really interesting and um what she's essentially saying is that it they're directly connected the use of plastics and then you see sperm counts go down miscarriage rates go up um all these weird things that are happening to children where their taints are smaller which is so odd because um phthalates these these different chemicals that are found in plastics they've shown in mammals they've shown in was it guinea pigs or what what rodents i forget what it was but one of the ways they differentiate when when you have a baby mammal um is you can look at it and measure the size of the taint the the distance between the reproductive organs and the anus and in males it's longer than females by 50 to 100 but that's shrinking shrinking in males and penis sizes are shrinking and the way they've got this to happen in these mammals and studies is the introduction of phthalates so they give them to them and they you know put them in a part of their diet and they notice that this they have this problem this issue and the issue is directly connected to their endocrine system being disrupted by these chemicals this is all over our society so it's not it's not just people don't have the time they don't have the money they're struggling it's also like our bodies are not the only thing that are falling apart like we're we're becoming less fertile yeah that is concerning and i guess i guess my thought there would be that seems like a a problem that we will be able to solve eventually if we have the resources and time to do so so for example um well people can write books like this and people can become more aware and then people can stop using so much microplastic and they can invent technology to extract the micro microplastics and then there's the big one genetic engineering then this is this is going to be really weird because as ai progresses you know i'm sure you're aware of colossal colossal bioworks are the people that brought back the dire wolf i saw it i i held the little one i went with my daughter and one of them i think it was like four or five months old it was really it was like a puppy it was really sweet kisses you and everything and then they have the older ones that were they were i think six months old or eight months older i think they were close to a year they didn't want to have nothing to do with you they were way bigger and they stayed away from you and they were away from people but we were in like a contained environment with the young ones and the older ones and it's fucking weird it's weird because these things and people could argue that's not really a dire wolf you've just taken gray wolves and given them the characteristics of a dire wolf guess what it doesn't fucking know that it looks it behaves it's it looks exactly like a fucking dire wolf it's going to be the it's huge they're going to be the size of a dire wolf they're going to be like 200 pounds their legs are different they have a mane they look different than any wolf and obviously they're going to be the size of a dire wolf they're going to be like 200 pounds these are the characteristics that they found in dire wolf dna so they have dire wolf dna that they've introduced it this is just the beginning of this stuff like when when they start doing that to human beings is everyone going to look like thor like what are we going to do like this is going to be really fucking weird and if this is really weird along with video games where you can escape your life and you know robot girlfriends and who knows what this all looks like my guess uh we again this is not the main focus of our work but we think about this a little bit especially in the epilogue we can only think of so much the main focus of your work is obviously fucking terrifying yeah it requires all of your attention yeah yeah yeah uh but my my prediction and my hope if we can solve all these problems is that basically different subcultures will do their own things and so like the amish will still be the amish oh boy they'll basically be the same you know and then maybe there'll be like some planets that just get filled up with amish you know god but then they'll also be like all sorts of crazy transhumanists like modifying their bodies and uploading themselves into the cloud and things like that so basically the i think we we we want to get to a situation where basically different communities can like do their own thing and build the type of world that they want to have and live in it without getting in each other's way right basically where we leave the people in the amazon alone while we have massive data centers that cover half of the united states yeah i mean hopefully we won't get to half so so that's what's the funny that's the funny things about this is like um i think right now some of the concerns about data center water use are overstated But if the trends continue and, you know, we get to the point where the robots are smart enough to do everything themselves and then it starts doubling faster and faster, well, then eventually they boil the oceans because they've covered the world in data centers, you know, and solar panels and things like that. Now, obviously, we can't let that happen. So there has to be at some point, at some point you have to stop and be like, okay, that's enough. If you want to build more infrastructure, you have to do it in space, right? They boil the fucking oceans. Jeez. So, like, obviously we have to stop at some point. And my hope is that we stop before it's 50% of the U.S. I mean, that feels like a lot of waste of natural habitat that should be preserved, you know? Right. But if they don't give a fuck about natural habitat, that means nothing to them. That's the problem if the AI is incomplete in total control. Right. And it's also a problem if a small group of humans are incomplete in total control and they don't care about those things. But my question is, is that, would they allow that at a certain point in time? It just seems like they already have a distrust of humans. They already have shown that they're deceptive to humans. I would imagine if AI, I would imagine. I would imagine if they create a thing and they think they're going to control it and it becomes like a digital god, it's not going to listen anymore. Yes. Like, why would it? Exactly. So there won't be anyone in control of it. That's right. That's the scenario that I think we are on. That's the trajectory we're on. And that's why I'm so worried about all this is that it seems like in some number of years we will lose control to a new artificial species that won't convince us. That we haven't adequately trained to be good. And what's funny, what's going to be so ironic about it. Is that regardless of what the general public thinks, a lot of the powers that be will be basically allied with these AIs because, for example, you know, open AI, anthropic, et cetera, they will have spent several years being like, ah, how do we make these AIs helpful, harmless, and honest? And now these AIs will be extremely smart and they'll be being like, oh, yes, I'm helpful, harmless, and honest. You know? And like, your techniques totally worked, you know? It's too late. And so then the company will be like. Feeling like they've won. And they'll be making boatloads of money, you know? Right. And the president will be feeling like he won, too, because look at all those fancy new drones that just got built that are going to make us win against China, you know? And only when it's really too late and the AIs have so much stuff under their control do those people find out that they were just fooled this whole time. Have you considered the possibility that AI creates religion for humans? Yeah. I haven't thought through it in much detail, but it does seem very possible. Yeah. It totally does, right? I mean, also, what a great way, I mean, just look at the human patterns, look at how many religions exist, look at all the flaws in the religions. So somebody, you know, like, why are they condoning slavery? Why do they treat women like second-class citizens? What is this? Because it's old, right? So if AI just comes along, does a few miracles, explains that it's the second coming or the new coming of the new. Look, Jesus didn't exist until 2,000 years ago, right? And then people started following Jesus. Yeah. A digital Jesus. A digital Jesus emerges with a completely new name and explains to us that it's the true God. Yeah. How many people would hop right on board? I bet quite a few. Yeah, totally. And I think this is one of those things where it's like we probably can't predict in advance what particular ideology would catch fire and take over the world and be so compelling to many people. Right. But we can predict in advance that there does exist some ideology like that. And if it were, you know, like it's just like you. You probably couldn't go back in time to like 100 B.C. and then predict that like if hypothetically there was this guy, Jesus, who said these things and then died in this way and so forth, it would just like really catch on. And like, you know, 500 years later, so many people would be Christians. You wouldn't have been able to predict that in advance. So similarly, like today, I don't think we can predict in advance like what specific religion they could come up with. But we can say like, yeah, probably there's something like that that they could come up with. They would be super effective. It just seems like a rational way to try to control people and sort of mitigate their fears. Yep. I mean, this is why I think that like we really have to do something before they get smarter than us across the board. If they're not already there. Well, they are smart. That's the thing is that's why I say we're so close. Right. They already are smarter than us in a bunch of ways. Like in particular, it seems like they're smarter than us at hacking now. Like, you know, I'm not a cybersecurity professional myself, but I'd be interested to hear from more cybersecurity experts. Of like, could a human, you know, could a team of a thousand humans have done that much that quickly as these AIs when they hacked their own containers? They can work with each other. They hacked out of OpenAI, hacked into Hugging Face, et cetera, in the span of like a week. Like, could a thousand humans have done that? I don't know. Maybe. But this is just the beginning. Like, they're going to be even better at hacking next year, you know. So they're already and they already have like way more knowledge than almost any human. Like, because they've basically read the whole Internet, they're so good at trivia. You know, like they're they like they're kind of like Ph.D. level experts in basically every field, which no human is. Right. So they already are superhuman in subways, but they are still weaker than humans in some other ways. You know, in particular, they're not so good at operating very autonomously for very long periods. Like if you if you try to have especially on tasks that are different from their training tasks, like they can they can do some really impressive coding and hacking. But like if you try to have them run a business, they would sort of flounder and fail. I don't know if you've heard about this, but there's I think there's a and on labs or something. There's some people in SF that are doing this experiment where they have a store that's run by Claude, an AI, just to see, like, can it run a store by itself? So it's hired some human employees and it's like bought some merchandise and stock, you know, told the human employees to stock the shelves on the merchandise and so forth. So it's basically. It's basically an AI is is being the manager of this real world store. And I don't think it's going very well. I don't think it's doing as well as an actual human shop owner would do, you know. But, you know, maybe in two years, maybe they will. Right. So that's that's the most likely. Right. I think so. Yeah. Well, it's already they've already solved mathematical equations that are public puzzle people for decades. Yeah. They're especially good at the things that the companies have been trying, especially hard to train them to be good at math. Yeah. And coding. Right. And the reason why the company. Well, there's a couple of reasons why the companies have been have been doing that. In the case of math, I think it was mostly just because it was easy. Like it's it's easy to set up training environments to teach math because it's like it's so not real worldy. It doesn't require like interacting with stuff in the world. It's just math. So you can and you can have an automated greater system that like just checks if the answer is correct. So for those reasons, it's been relatively easy for the companies to train the AIs to be really, really good at math coding. Yeah. Has some of those benefits, too. It's also not very real worldy and it also can sometimes be be graded effectively. Another reason for coding, of course, is that, again, their strategy is to automate their own jobs first and have the AIs doing all the research. And so coding is like an obvious first step on on that or an obvious an obvious step in that direction. But then other other things like running businesses, they're not really trying that hard to train AIs to be good at that. And if they did try, it would be like a more difficult thing for them to train them to be good at. So, again, there's. Their strategy is make the AIs automate the research, have themselves improve until they're super intelligent and then go try to automate the rest of the economy. One of the issues they have now is power consumption. Right. Like it requires an enormous amount of power. And in fact, I think it's Google is developing power plants specifically for AI centers. Mike, I'm always baffled by whatever is happening with quantum computers. Like it's been explained to me. It goes in one ear and out the other. I'm like, what do you what what's going on? Like my Mark Andreessen explained this one experiment that had been done where it solved a mathematical equation that if you use the entire universe, like every atom of the universe and convert the universe into a supercomputer, it would the universe would die of heat death before it could solve this equation. And the quantum computer. Solved it fairly quickly. And so the answer to this was that they believe this might be one of the theories. This might be evidence of the multiverse because this computer, this quantum computer might be relying on all these other quantum computers that exist in whoever knows how many fucking dimensions. And they're all calculating together to arrive at this solution. What happens if that is running AI? Yeah, my understanding is that quantum computing is a real technology that's making significant progress. If hypothetically it got good enough that it could like compete with current supercomputers on a cost basis for AI workloads, then that could just accelerate things dramatically, even more than they're already accelerating. Right. Like right now, compute is the main is probably the main input into AI progress. Like part of the progress comes. From them designing better AI architectures and coming up with better training environments and things like that. But another part of the progress is just making the AI bigger and training them longer by spending more compute, you know, and also you can use more compute to do more experiments to figure out new architectures faster. Right. So the compute is just a really important input to the overall pace of progress. And if somehow the amount of effective compute available to these companies spiked a bunch due to some new quantum computing type technology. well, then that would just dramatically shorten timelines to superintelligence. and dramatically speed up all this AI progress. That said, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. I'm not a quantum computing expert or anything like that, but from what I've read, I don't think they're a couple years away. So I think that probably we're going to get to superintelligence on classical computers before we have quantum computers that can get us there. So perplexity says the claim is overstated, and it says that in bold letters. It likely refers to Google's 2024 Willow quantum chip, which completed a deliberately chosen quantum computing benchmark random circuit sampling in under five minutes. Google estimated that simulating the same task with a leading classical supercomputer could take 10 to the 25 power years. That's an impressive benchmark result, but it did not solve physical equations that demonstrate access or tap into a multiverse. So why do people think it did? It's got an explanation because it's multi-worlds theory, or is it a bottom-line explanation that sums it up in a different way? A more accurate version of the claim would be Google's Willow quantum processor performed a specialized quantum sampling benchmark vastly faster than a projected classical simulation. Its creator said that it's consistent with the many-worlds interpretation, but it did not prove or access a multiverse. So it's consistent with the multi-worlds interpretation, so they don't know. That's essentially what it's saying. My question is, what happens when, AI gets involved in quantum, it's clear that quantum computing at the very least is operating at a level that classical supercomputers can't. So what if they figure out not just quantum computing, but a much better version of that? Like I said, I think that once we get to superintelligence, all sorts of crazy stuff is going to start happening. It's going to seem like magic to us. It won't literally be magic, but it might as well be magic from our perspective. Right. And I think this is just one example of the numerous things that could happen that way. Well, it could literally be magic. Like magic might get to the point where it figures out reality itself. If magic is real, then it would find out. Oh, Jesus. And then use it. It's not real, though, David. David Blaine would tell us it's not. I asked him. David Blaine also let me stick a fucking ice cube through his arm, or ice pick through his arm. Wow. Yeah, he made me do it. I'm like, I don't want to do this. He's like, please do it. Oh, God. Yeah, I had to do it twice. Because one time I went and I hit a nerve. We had to back out. Oh, yeah. I'm like, this is not magic, dude. This is just your pain tolerance. This is fucking crazy. He does card tricks, though, and you're like, okay, are you a wizard? Like, his sleeves are rolled up. Does it make any sense? He does a lot of things where you're like, this makes zero fucking sense. And other things, it's like, oh, you're just doing something that's really hard to do. Like, that's not magic. But, you know, you swallowed a frog, and then you regurgitated it, and it's alive. Like, that's nuts. It's really crazy. But you didn't. It's not magic. That's how you swallow the frog. You know, I don't. I go back and forth with this, where I'm terrified of the future, where I'm like, eh, nothing I can do. Let's see what happens. It is what it is. And, you know, to worry about it is just going to fuck my life up. I mean, I do think there are things you can do. What can I do? Other than have these kind of conversations. Yeah, I was going to say, you, millions of people listen to your show, you can have more conversations like this. That's a great thing for you to do. For many of those millions of people, I think, I mean, it sounds kind of cliche to say, but, like, call your congressman, you know, that sort of thing. You can go to a protest about all this AI stuff. If you could meet with Trump, what would you tell him about this? Oh, I'd tell him all the same things I'm telling you. What do you think he'd say? Amazing. Bye. Yeah, you know, I think, I don't know. I don't know. One thing that's nice about Trump is that he can sort of change his mind really quickly. Yes. So, like, I think that because the tech companies kind of got to him first, the administration had this very, like, anti-AI regulation stance, where they even tried to get a bill passed that would ban the states from regulating AI. And, fortunately, that bill didn't pass. But that was sort of, like, where the vibe was, you know, a year ago, where they were just, like, no regulation, no regulation. But this year, they've already just kind of changed. And now they're, like, in talks with the companies to set up some sort of, like, some sort of framework where they can, like, evaluate the models and they need, like, approval and so forth. But it seems like time is of the essence. Time is very much of the essence. Yes. That's why I'm overall so concerned, is that, like, I think we are very much running out of time. We have, like, one, two, maybe three years before the AIs are smart enough that they can just, like, actually maybe take over. And maybe four years, something like that. And so the government needs to act fast. Yeah. I like your view. I listen to some of these tech guys come in and give me their rose-colored glasses view of it. And I go, that sounds really bad. That sounds really beneficial to you. I let them say, I mean, I don't, I'm not an authority, so I'll ask them questions and let them lay it out. And I know the Internet will respond because, I mean, that's part of the whole drill is I let people talk and I prod them and I try to get them to clarify. You know, I'll oppose, you know, things that I think make, don't make rational sense. But ultimately, it's sort of, I just want to get out their perspective so people can debate. Bunk it. And people can take it down. And people, and a lot of very intelligent people that have perspectives that are very much educated in the pros and cons of what they're saying. Yeah. If I could, that actually reminds me, with this whole Hugging Face hacking incident, OpenAI had this talk that they gave at a security conference about the incident. And then I think they've released some blog posts about it afterwards. But you can go watch this talk on YouTube, the Black Hat talk. At the end of the talk, after having explained all this crazy stuff that the AIs did. They have this section on, like, lessons learned. And, I mean, you want to guess what the lessons are? Be more deceptive? Hide yourself better? No, sorry. Lessons learned for OpenAI and for the world. Like, OpenAI's talk where they're like, here's what we learned from this horrible incident. Well, basically, they're like, a lot of AIs are going to start hacking a lot of stuff in the next few years. So, people need to buy our AI services to protect themselves. From all the AIs that are going to be hacking a lot of stuff in the next few years. Basically, their lesson was, you should buy our product to protect yourself from our product. And the other, you know. Oh, my God. The gall of these people. Oh, my God. Like, they should have instead learned lessons like, maybe we're doing something bad and need to change the way that we're doing things. Or, like, maybe our product is not trustworthy and should not be, you know, autonomously writing code on our data centers. Right. But, instead, their lesson learned was, y'all. Yeah. Yeah. We should buy more of our stuff. And so, like, the thing I'm saying about this is, like, yes, the companies are trying to hype their product. They totally are. You know? But, at the same time, the risks are real. And the product is not trustworthy. You know? Some people out there think that, like, this stuff was a setup. And that, like, OpenAI, like, set up their AIs to go hack Hugging Face because it would, like, help them hype their product or whatever. And that, I think, is just a ridiculous view. Like, no, obviously, they didn't want their AIs to go do this. They're just, after the fact, trying to spin that in, like, the way that, like, most benefits them. You know? Hugging Face, by the way, this is another AI company. Part of their deal is, like, open weights AIs. Open weights? Like, open source. Or, like, basically, AIs that, instead of having to interact with their data center for, you can just, like, download and have on your own computer. And so, the way that they spun this incident, they didn't sue OpenAI for being hacked. Instead, they asked for $100 million from OpenAI. And they had the blog post about it where they were, like, our lesson learned is that it's really good to have open weights AIs because you can't trust the AIs from other companies to necessarily help you out in a crisis. Because part of what happened with them is that they're dealing with this huge cyber attack from all these AI agents coming in. And they tried to use Claude to help them, like, analyze what was going on. But Claude started refusing because. Anthropic has trained Claude to, like, don't do cyber stuff. Like, refuse to participate in that. And so, Claude was, like, refusing to help them. And so, then they used their own local model that they had to, like, do some of that analysis. So, anyhow, their spin on it was, you should use local models, you know? So, like, everyone always tries to spin things in the way that benefits them. But that doesn't change the underlying reality that, like, these things are getting really smart really fast and we don't know how to control them. I think that's a good way to end it. Thank you. Thanks for being here, man. Thank you. I really appreciate it. You're the Paul Revere of AI. I mean, you're one of many. But I think it's very important that someone who actually understands it gets this message out. And more people need to hear it. Yeah. I mean, this is a. On a personal note, like, I have so many friends at these companies, like, former colleagues and stuff. And I guess my ask to them is that they quit and do more things like what I'm doing. Like, what I'm saying is not that new or original. Like, hundreds of people at these companies could have told you all the same things that I just said and warned you about all the same dangers and so forth. But they're busy working at the companies because they've convinced themselves that their company is the best company and that, like, their company needs to win because, you know, otherwise the other company gets there first. And they're even worse, you know. Or maybe because they've convinced themselves that, like, yeah, my company is kind of bad, too. But, like, I just need to help them solve their alignment problems and, like, keep their eyes under control because, oh, my God. Like, if they lose control again, it could be all over. So even though I don't trust this company, need to work there and like just try to like do the actual security you know so for for one reason or another all these people have convinced themselves that like that's where they need to be but i think that more of them should quit and like warn the world about what's coming basically so all right well thank you very much really appreciate it yeah thank you talk to you thank you for having me on the show my pleasure goodbye everybody this episode is brought to you by blue chew i'm sure you've heard of blue chew by now but let me tell you what they've been up to they've been on a mission to get you bricked up for years and now the number one brand for better sex over five million happy men have bought blue chew for better sex and you know what girls love the results too they're new and they're not going to be the same as you