22-Year-Old Hedge Fund Manager: “Hedge funds are the least sexy business in the world”
65m 26s
The transcript features a 22-year-old hedge fund manager, Noah, discussing his experience launching and running Vanary, a multi-strategy macro fund with his twin brother. He challenges the glamorized view of hedge funds, calling it the "least sexy business," and highlights the stress, short timelines, and constant learning required. His biggest surprise was the widespread lack of risk management, emphasizing that markets are driven by emotional people, not just algorithms. Noah attributes his success to transparency and honesty, which build investor trust, and sees his youth as an advantage, preventing complacency and forcing continuous adaptation. He studies behavioral finance and historical events like the Great Depression to understand market psychology and avoid biases. The firm’s strategy focuses on macro discretionary investing, geopolitical trends, and domestic infrastructure, with strict risk management protocols, including stop losses and consensus-based decisions. Operational practices, such as a reading list and mindfulness, help maintain focus, while a strong team separates investing from business tasks. He successfully raised capital from wealthy families by emphasizing stewardship of capital for future generations and authenticity. Ultimately, he believes intellectual curiosity, cultural understanding, and differentiated inputs—like his professional violin playing—provide a competitive edge, concluding that being curious and humble leads to a better life and investing success.
You're 22 launching a hedge fund. What do you know that others don't?
Running a hedge fund is the least sexy business in the entire world. The people around you tell you
that running a hedge fund is the pinnacle of finance, right? You go from an investment banking
analyst to maybe a private equity associate and then if your performance is strong enough
over a number of years you run to be a hedge fund manager. When you're 22 like I am,
you don't have a choice to be complacent. You have to always be on the edge. You have to
understand what's going on in the world at all times. What's been the biggest thing that's
surprised you throughout the whole process? The biggest thing that surprised me is the lack of
risk management. Finance right is inherently mathematical but people are inherently emotional.
Markets are driven not only by algorithms but by people investing their own money.
You told me how much you were managing and frankly I was blown away. How does a 22-year-old do it?
Sometimes I ask myself the same question.
Noah thank you so much for coming on the pod. Yeah thank you for having me man this is awesome.
You're 22 launching a hedge fund having built some hedge funds. Running a hedge fund is the least sexy business in the entire world and it's something that
I learned very quickly because the people around you tell you that running a hedge fund is
the pinnacle of finance right. You go from an investment banking analyst to maybe a private equity
associate or vice president and then if your performance is strong enough over a number of years
you run to be a hedge fund manager but the stress the short timelines that managers have
from when they start to performance and then the overall tenacity and aggressive continual learning
that it takes to run a hedge fund is very stressful it's very tedious and it's really hard to do
well year over year competing against some of the smartest people in the world. What's been the
biggest thing that surprised you throughout the whole process? A lot of these firms when they're young these emerging managers
skip over the boring stuff compliance making sure you're following regulatory procedures. I think
the firms that do the best and are built institutionally from day one do the things that are the least
sexy but make them some of the most important principles for running one of these businesses.
What are some of these things? So there's certainly regulatory filings that there are some
websites in startups recently that allow you to blow past these things but just because you can
fill out a form doesn't mean you understand the contents of a form so there's something called
a PPM private placement memorandum and this allows you to tell your investors exactly what you're
doing the qualifications that they need and then the ability for them to understand the business
you're operating but if you fill those with filler terminology and very like stand still terms
then not only are they not going to understand what you're doing but they're going to not give you
as much slack if you make poor decisions because they're not going to have known what you're trying to
do in the first place so transparency and honesty in a business that is inherently known for being
opaque, disingenuous and secretive actually is one of the biggest competitive advantages for any
fund of any size. Talk to me a little bit about your story so we talked a little bit about the
hedge fund business earlier but you're fascinating man you're 22 you and correct me from wrong this
is not the first hedge fund you've built take me through that journey. I first started investing
in stocks when I was 16 the moment I always remember is with my mother who has been in finance for
most of her career and we bought HCA you know healthcare corporation of America for $50 a share
at the peak of the COVID drop and what people didn't appreciate is healthcare is inevitable and
is one of the industries that if it doesn't exist humanity as a society will cease to operate
efficiently and so while everybody was freaking out there are fundamental businesses like HCA
that allow the country to continue running even in the times of COVID and from there it's only been
an amazing journey I ran a crypto trading firm when I was 17 in high school where like leverage
trading was was a big deal this was 2021 so I would say the palpability and the energy you get from
those highs and lows is something I did not expect but you know I do it all with my twin brother
Ethan he's my best friend and it allows us to have different kind of mindsets I'm more of a let's
push forward let's get that aggressive alpha he's like well you can be aggressive but you have to
do it with risk management and then we did our first hedge fund at 19 called sage the capital which
performed very very well very quickly and we were very fortunate and so we kind of took the win
early on to continue the track record and then we did some personal investing and now we're here
at Vanary SM management what is Vanary so Vanary and Latin means to hunt and so our motto is we're
hunting alpha continuously exponentially and forever and so Vanary is a is a culmination of the
values and principles we've built from day one and so like our investors for example know what's
going on at almost all times because they want to understand that and from our investing strategy
to our risk management protocols it is always with the mindset of we want to have risk adjusted
above market returns but consistently I do not necessarily want to have one very very good month
and then have a swing right now I'd rather have consistent you know tangible operating returns
over time that then allow us to show not only our knowledge and demonstration but that our youth
is an advantage and not something that should be used against us how is your use an advantage and
I'll ask that question you know Sam in the position of I'm 60 50 I'm older than you I've seen all
the managers they all tell me they have something special they all tell me they're hot shit
back to the first question what would you a 22 year old know that others wouldn't with more
years of experience I think as we get older as individuals complacency is the biggest issue
so a lot of these hedge funds that you see that have returns that do window over time right there's
like an inflection point is because they get complacent when you're 22 like I am you don't have a
choice to be complacent you have to always be on the edge you have to understand what's going on
in the world at all times you have to know what technologies being used and why it is better
and so the ability to have that energy is the ability to continuously learn improve and not let
your biases get ahead of you like maybe what if you had 20 years of of experience on Wall Street
right that's great but if you haven't done something in the last five to 10 years and you're
relying on past results which never contribute to potential future performance as an indicator
most of the time then you're only going to be hindered by your age and your own inhibition to
continue to grow how do you build investing reps and I want to kind of cure that question from
the angle of everyone has to study history everyone has to understand history in order to and
understand the markets you being young you just haven't lived through some of those periods felt
what people were feeling used people as indicators how do you study those things and get a grasp
for how things will evolve based off of yeah obviously not purely basing everything off of what
happened in the past but using it as somewhat guidelines and data the number one thing that my
brother and I focus on from a historical lens is behavioral finance the one good thing about
looking at the past is you can understand the winners and the losers at the same time and so while
being in the moment is very important and you learn along the way the mistakes you make are ones
you wouldn't necessarily make if you had the previous knowledge right so it's basically like
I have the ability to back test what happened now versus people in the moment who may have lost a
lot of money in the same process and so studying history in behavioral finance is exactly how we learned
before I looked at what a PE ratio was or like growth rates or net profit and how that operates
I wanted to understand how do people fundamentally see the world right the psychology are people
going to continue to learn right what countries do well because of these mindsets a great book on
this is principles by radalia right if you understand how people think to a degree and if you can
understand the culture of these companies then your ability to understand them fundamentally and
then make investments that are better is a very tangible and honestly not a very difficult process
because all the information is already there but like I said about complacency you have to be
willing to look at all of it and understand it from every angle instead of having your own biases
that certain pieces of information are inherently better than others because you agree with one versus
the other can you give an example of the way you studied a particular event name situation
and how that translated into judgment for present day something you did so one thing I like to look
a lot at is the great depression and obviously it was very tragic and what happened was very unfortunate
but what happened right is a lot of people kept buying stocks and they were
investing a lot in the markets and at some point when these markets become so
inflated and people have to take profits or they have to understand that you
know they need to sell to make money then as they say the ride up always takes
a lot longer than the ride down and so as people got margin cold and as they
lost a lot of money and there's something called Hooverville's right where
people lost a lot of their homes and in the value of the dollar decreased it
wasn't even necessarily about the amount of money that was put into the
market it was about people's mindsets that things always come up but right
it's gravity if something comes up it must come down and you know we saw that
with the you know the dot com bubble which obviously led led to the great
financial crisis right just because something has a paper value does not
necessarily translate to tangible value right that's why startups evaluations
it's you know future earnings potential and so if you look at events
throughout human history that kind of mindset of it's only going to get better
and better and better all technologically that might be true but nothing has
infinite value right you have to have that equilibrium that I think most
people miss out on is equilibrium also an open is sponsored by Onyx Capital
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in the description talk to me a little bit about the strategies your firm
runs so our main like thematic lenses is macro and we do macro discretionary
so we can do long short equities sometimes commodities in futures but
mainly IEI equities ETFs and options and so we take the macro lens as a
behavioral finance lens so I want to understand why are countries doing what
they're doing how is that going to lead to infrastructure that's currently in
the United States so one particular strategy is focused on geopolitics
recently we've seen a lot more governments have stronger intervention and
their economies China is well known for this the United States is starting to
buy equities again which the US has invested in private companies before post
World War II so it's not actually the first time it's happened and so
understanding to the degree that we can well what is the government thinking we
see certain laws that are passed and you go into these laws who were the
winners and who were the losers who is making these political donations right
where is the money going and then are those Congress members you know buying the
said companies that are are there for backing them so these like trackers which
you know people can access which is not it's not too hard to see now but it's
not necessarily about the exact companies in the one tangible reason that these
politicians are buying them it's like okay what is the underlying thesis because
it's not just about one company right isn't about an industry so defense right
we've seen a massive increase in defense expenditure Germany released a
massive new defense plan the United States as of recently requested their
largest defense budget ever at over I think one and a half trillion dollars for
2027 but defense has always been a thing it's not like a new hot button issue
and so people that are looking too much at current trends right versus
historical trends that I mentioned earlier are gonna miss out on the waves
that are building up for a long time so it's historical data with geopolitical
influence based on industries that have done well and will continue to do well
based on the government's backing one strategy being understanding geopolitics
and seeing who's doing what what are some of the things you do personally to
enhance that sort of sharpness that allows you to see the forest for the trees
and so it's a great question in a world where information is more abundant
than ever before it means that the specific pieces of information that you
digest have to be increasingly more credible and increasingly more important so
for example you know a lot of these cable news media are becoming increasingly
less interested or less interesting excuse me by the general populace which
means podcasts like this one for example where you bring on guests that are
experts and are sharing their honest opinions can be tangible pieces of
information at the forefront and not and the ivory tower policy to your point
about you know seeing the forest through the trees and so I think getting in
the weeds of it I want to understand what people on the ground floor are
talking about so Eli Lilly was an investment we made and so I wanted to
understand why or GOP ones so important by what was the missing factor for why
they could be better than like a Nordisk was because women between the ages of
40 to 60 that wanted to lose weight found a way to do it and if they have the
resources they're going to buy a lot of it and so the interview process
conversations like this understanding what is the other side looking at and not
having inherent biases that say because this is my viewpoint I'm correct
right and so it's that continuous learning process interviewing people on the
ground floor that will continue to allow us to operate in a way that lets us
beat the market so give me the A to Z you want to do work on a name you have
this broader geopolitical context you have a macro view let's say you get an
idea how does that idea become an investment so from a top down approach you
want to focus on where is the world going and obviously there's a lot of
different factors that play into that we call that the fracture world right
domestic inbound so the first thing honestly is if we're investing in U.S.
equities what companies are turning their infrastructure inside the U.S. so
from a basic lens it's okay what are these super large companies is becoming
domestic in terms of their manufacturing they're AI infrastructure investments
their talent pools etc so we start there and then we see what are the
industries that are necessary for the economy to do well so healthcare as I
mentioned for example finance defense even retail to accent rates so people
can buy goods and services so then we look at what are the companies right that
are in those four industries that fit the profile that we just talked about
where they're bringing domestic inbound and then we look at research and
development we want to understand where they're putting their money to the
extent that we can so when you look at reliable sources of news so I'm listening
to their earnings calls I want to hear from the leadership what are they
thinking and why are they thinking that so that's how we find like in the
Lily or like an Nvidia and tech etc and then from there we look at the
financials I want to understand are they cash profitable right a lot of the
what they call circular financing that's happening inside of tech means that at
some point if something goes wrong those companies are basically gonna have to
either bail out each other or pull all the deals and kind of consolidate into
their own balance sheets which is obviously that's a whole no other can of
worms and so are they cash positive right are they investing in the right
infrastructure and then the management teams is their experience relevant if
somebody is at Nvidia right and they have a their systems engineer that
understands GPUs that is gonna be a better tale of how they're gonna do than if
the person was at Walmart right and selling some kind of good and okay maybe
they had senior leadership at Walmart but industry specific is also very
important and then as we continue to break down those layers obviously AI
allows us to do all this information pretty quickly and then it's
understanding okay does this company have all of those factors that we checked
and are they are they fundamentally sound so also what did the people think of
them right are people talking positively about this business consumers I've
never invested more money into the US economy than ever retail investing is
at an all-time high and so the sentiment from the mass which before was maybe
disinteresting to some of these firms is becoming increasingly relevant
especially after game stop and so that's honestly the kicker that I feel like
a lot of these larger firms sometimes miss out on is it does matter where the
money is flowing but it's not just necessarily institutional right it's all
sort of retail are there any non-consensus indicators that you use at your firm
to determine whether something's a good investment that's a good question it's
hard because alpha is obviously temporary right one strategy is not
necessarily gonna last forever so the principles I mentioned before are the ones
we mainly focus on but a non-consensus indicator is honestly case
dependent so in the data center right for example like a company I would be
very interested in is the HVAC business that has the partnerships with a lot
of these companies right so okay if they're the cool excuse me cooling system
for most of the data centers let's say in Virginia that company is going to be
a lot more interesting to me so one of the non-consensus I guess to wrap it up
is the non-sexy businesses. A lot of people are falling.
the trend. We saw that with a recent hedge fund that had a bad experience, right? And so we see
that, okay, what are the things that people are missing out on and why are they missing out on it?
Right? I'm not necessarily trying to find that one gem or the one diamond in the rough.
I want to find the company that can relate to the entire mine in a way that is more of like an
operation efficient business related to each party, but it's neutral too. I want to find the
company with nuance. So I want to find a company that's not very polarizing. That's another
non-consensus indicator we use. Right? Are they going to have a ton of flak from large enough
parties that could hinder that business? Or are they going to be in a broad enough light and
well respected enough by the players in their industry? Well, they'll be propped up by those businesses.
When you talk about companies like that, you just laid out, I can't help but think about
how you view crowded trades, crowded trades tend to go up. You know, they
on average momentum as a factor works, right? I reckon if you buy what's hot in general, it will pay.
Obviously you will be hit with some brutal drawdowns occasionally, but I think over a long enough
time arise in you win. How do you view your opportunity set for names that you buy?
So to your point, momentum is a huge factor. And the two words I would use that would allow
as a momentum investor to continue to do well is risk management. A lot of the time to what I
talked about like during the Great Depression or the Great Financial Crisis, right? You know,
money keeps making money, which keeps making money, and people think it's not going to stop.
Oh, obviously it has to, right? That's human nature, and that's the, like, loss of nature itself.
And so, you know, continuously taking profits, continuously moving up your stop losses or your
max drawdown. And so following the wave, right? If I'm up, let's say 100% on investment, which is
amazing. I'm not going to have 100% of my initial investment in that, right? I'm going to have
continuously taken profits or taken gains throughout that entire process. And so when your momentum
investing and following the crowd, right? These things do well, but it's understanding that there
are limits to liquidity and eventually these big players are going to take their wins. So you just
have to be willing to risk out on the gains in the future, the potential gains for realized gains.
Right? I would always have smaller amounts of realized profit in the bank account than tons of
potential unrealized profit that could turn at any point. What does your risk management process
look like? So it first starts with our due diligence, right? As I mentioned about the
thematic investing. And then there are certain controls in place, right? So you have like a max drawdown
percentage. We have every single trade has to have a certain stop loss. If we lose X amount of
money a day in certain trades, right? We just, we take a break. And so we have to be very specific,
though, and we can never break our own rules. That is the one hard definition. I know some people
bend the rules and other industries, but we are not allowed to do that because not only do we
have responsibility to ourselves, we most importantly have responsibility to our investors in our constituents,
right? We're stewards of capital. This is not just for lack of a better term game. And so if we
understand that we have to follow strict protocol and the protocol obviously is what we set us with
the parameters I mentioned before, it will allow us to continue to do well because we're going to
understand there's not another option, right? And if markets shift and if things qualify for
different, you know, parameters, we have an investment committee, we meet with them, you know,
we make sure that we're in a consensus. But we do not allow individualistic ideologies to push
or break these rules. There has to be a general consensus among our experts because once you start
going off on your own in a system that's meant to be used together, you create problems really
quickly. And then that's when it starts to to double down and create a very bad windfall.
What are the rules you hold yourselves to? So one of the rules that I think is the most important
is never do anything on your own. And what I mean by that is if we have an idea, ask other
people about it, whether that be a trade, whether that be a thesis, whether that be a meeting, maybe
you're not necessarily familiar with with the investor or the LP. I know a lot of large hedge funds
that are like pod structures, right, are like in your pot. You're like maybe
unintentionally competing with other pods in the business. But since we're a lean team and we're
small, we want to make sure that everybody else has everybody else's back. And so when I'm looking
at an angle of, okay, if you know, one of my partners says a really good idea and maybe I have a
different idea, we're not going to butt heads over it and create an argument. We're going to come
to a consensus and make sure that what we're doing makes sense in the context of the firm itself.
What's the structure of the firm? It's a multi-stretch. It's not a pod shop. Tell me about it.
So you know, the multi-strategy can be certain equity sleeves or certain option sleeves,
but obviously it's within like one fund, right? And so that allows us to kind of have sleeves that
help each other write hedges, obviously. So we have, you know, the CoCIOs, you know, my brother and
I, and then we have, you know, quant analyst, and then we have a fundamental analyst, and then obviously
we have a trader. And so since it's a lean team, it means ideas are shared quickly and efficiently,
right? They're all in person with the right, you know, computer materials and IT and everything.
And so communication is the most important. And so that is like the number one rule of our firm
and how it's set up as you have to communicate. Even if you're ideas right, if your idea is wrong,
if you're unsure, if you're sure, you need to make sure you're sharing what you think,
because you know, they say two heads are better than one, especially when you guys can combine
on similar ideas. So then from an investing standpoint, right? You have the investment committee.
If you want to play certain trades, you know, you talk about the parameters that fall within the
firm, and then that's how we determine that's an equity's position, ETF or options position,
and our main multi-chrategy approach. So what are the different sleeves? So we have like a long
short equity sleeve, then we have, you know, like an option sleeve, or we're taking more leaps
than swings per se, and then we have kind of an ETF, I'd say, even more like basket approach,
I should say, because the equity sleeve is, you know, 25, let's say individual names. And then on
the ETF kind of bundle side, we're seeing, okay, what are the themes that we like overall? But maybe
those names in the theme are not ones we have super high conviction on that specific company will
do well, but as the industry as a whole, we're very confident on. And then on the option side,
you know, that's when we have these leaps or companies that we're confident in that maybe we
also have on the equity side that we want to have a little bit more leverage, but that's our
smallest holding on the option side. Who manages what? So I'm more on the option side, so like,
and then my brother is on the equity side, and then the analysts we have are focused,
the analysts is focused on the ETF side, and then obviously the trader and the quan help position
all of the above. And that allows us to have, let's say, an expert in a specific sector for all three
of us, but then at the same time, we're never alone, right, because the, the medics we're investing
in or the macro views we have are still, we all come to consensus on. And so since I really enjoy
kind of the options, you know, we're not taking out a ton of leverage per se like a lot of margin,
we don't do that. And since my brother is very good at like individual company analysis,
it helps us cross-check each other. And then the overall profit of the firm can be higher,
because like I said previously, we're not fighting each other, we're not trying to say our ideas
the best, we're just trying to understand. And the overall lens, what do we agree on, and why do we
agree on it? How correlated are each of those different sleeves? I would say they're decently correlated,
because I'm not necessarily trying to have one industry be completely different from the other,
but at the same time, right, I'm not going to invest necessarily in the exact same thing every time.
So if, you know, we're more heavy into AI on the individual equity side,
maybe we'll have some of that on the ETF side, right, but at the same time, we're going to be
more into healthcare or, you know, finance or some of these other industries. So we are more,
we're very strong believers in like American dynamism and the American economy overall.
So the most general consensus is going to be American-based businesses. And obviously,
there's other parts of the world that are interesting to us too, but the strongest correlation,
even if it's not sector-based is mostly American businesses. If you were to boil down the ethos
of the firm to one principle, one underlying belief, what would it be? Never be complacent.
And your inherent biases will be your biggest weakness.
A lot of the time when you see some of these big funds that go bankrupt is because one person,
whether they'd be in charge or not, was so headstrong and an idea that they ignored
the feedback of others. And they were too focused on what they wanted to do and to be right.
And so complacent.
agency isn't necessarily just, you know, stopping what you're doing,
complacency, and being, I don't even want to look at other opinions.
And I'm comfortable with what I'm doing enough to make an aggressive
decision. And so an art principle, it is always be intellectually
curious. Financial markets are very interesting because there's always
something new every day, every hour, sometimes every minute, right?
And so if you're always wanting to learn and you're always willing to look
past on biases you may have, but obviously we need conviction, right?
It will allow the firm to continue to grow. So even if we don't do well in
performance per se, let's say like a month or even a quarter, because we're
continuously operating in a model that means we have to learn more, and we can
never be stuck in the values, or I should say, in the macro or
thematic ideas are focused on, it will allow us to keep growing on a growth
intellectually of the firm. Are there any operational things you've done
and have put into place that you think will yield unbelievable benefits in the
future? A book list. A reading list. We have certain books, like I mentioned,
principles by Radalio and some other novels and literature that I think is
really important. Obviously, AI is great when it can summarize things, but
reading is, honestly, one of the largest brain foods. That is somehow
becoming a little underappreciated in the age of new technology. So we have
a book list that we say, you know, you all should read these, let's say it's
10 books, for example. And then it will allow that intellectual curiosity to
continue. And then another one that is not as interesting to most people,
actually, is mindfulness, right? You need to be able to be present in the
moment and control your reaction. Because if you are maybe losing on a trade,
you don't want to potentially double down if it's not a good idea. And so if
you're present of your emotions, which, you know, people take for granted,
because we're a macro firm, right? We have to control that with the
combination of being intellectually curious, right? From reading these novels,
you actually have a unique combination of not only am I in tune with myself,
but I'm in tune with how I think and how the people that have done it the
right way think. And then when you combine all that information, it allows you
to have the fastest chance for growth intellectually, because everybody
else is on the same mindset of we have to focus on our own mindset, our own
beliefs, so that it will allow us to collectively operate as a better
team. What does mindfulness look like to you?
Mindfulness is being present in the moment. It doesn't necessarily have to be
listening to meditation from a podcast. It could be if you work out a lot.
And then you're able to understand where you are and appreciate where you are
and focus solely on that task. That's an example of mindfulness.
I'm, I'm a violinist. So for me, mindfulness could literally be playing
the violin, right? Which may not necessarily relate at all to finance,
but it's that brain growth and that ability to stay in the moment and ignore
emotions that may be reactional versus something that may be logical.
It will allow it myself to focus on the things that matter most.
So if it's, you know, an idea or a trade, and I'm not going to be thinking
about, oh, if I made a mistake in the past and I let it cloud my judgment now,
if I'm able to stay present in the moment from that mindfulness, then I can figure
it out.
Of the sort of things you've put into place at the firm, the reading list,
the mindfulness, what are the most important? So obviously, in your view,
everything's important. Of course. What's the, the 1%, the 0.5% of stuff that
everyone listening to this podcast should pay attention to?
Mindfulness. Really, it's, and I know it's not the most expected answer.
But I think in the context of what we're doing, right?
If you're a trading firm and you have a lot of AI models, it's a little bit
different. But if you're a macro, and especially if you're a discretionary firm,
it's the ability to stay present in the moment that matters the most.
The worst decisions that people make are also sometimes the quickest,
their reactionary. And so if you have a big firm and you have a trade that is
not going very well and you're not able to separate that judgment and your
reaction is to do something versus maybe even taking a step back,
then the chance of it not going well is higher than if you're in tune with what
you're doing. And finance right is inherently mathematical.
But people are inherently emotional and behavioral finance exists because the
two things quarterly markets are driven not only by algorithms, but by people
investing their own money. And so if they have everybody talks about trading
psychology, but the biggest thing about trading psychology is being present in
the moment. And it sounds simple, but it's hard. I mean,
if you try sitting for 10, 15 minutes and just like not listening to music or
just trying to focus your mind, it is not easy. But if you're able to do that,
then when you're in a tough situation, you're not going to start overreacting
or panicking in the same way you did before. And then it will allow you to lock
in on that thing you need to focus on on maintaining focus.
I have a question for you because when we were having dinner yesterday,
you told me how much you were managing. And frankly, I was blown away.
You're 22, managing a big, big, big sum of money.
You have to build the business. You have to manage your options, leave.
Think two things that I, in my opinion, are separate things. They're not,
they don't really help the other. How do you maintain that focus on each of
those two very important aspects of the business?
By having a great team, I know I can't do everything alone.
And so I would rather have people I trust than to make all the decisions by
myself. So the reason I've been able, we, I should say, have been able to
perform well is because the systems we have in place were designed at the
advice by some amazing industry experts, even though they're not necessarily
correlated, operating and investing are two different things, right?
To like what you said, but if I can trust the people on the operational side,
the compliance, the, the, the risk profiles, the regulatory filings,
whatever it may be that may seem boring, like payroll and office rent, right?
Where people say, Oh, that's easy. But any of those unnecessary stress from
one side can absolutely bleed into the other. So if I have the right systems
and the right people, then inherently I have that trust. And so then I can focus
exactly on the investing that my brother and I do, because I know I'm not going
to have to worry if we have a redemption request that it's going to be met on
time, right? I'm not going to have to worry about us getting kicked out of our
office or people being paid, which are things that can definitely over time
take a toll on you, but you may not take, you may take for granted in the
moment, because it seemed so easy in the beginning. And again, on raising
money, you've raised a big sum from some of the wealthiest families in
America. How does a 22 year old do it? I think for me, it was authenticity and honesty. What I've
noticed is the investors, these families, they care about a couple things
most importantly, one is the next generation. I know family offices are
becoming increasingly more visible in America. And they're not necessarily
about making the most money, but they're making sure that their kids,
their grandkids, their great grandkids are taking care of. And so they
don't necessarily want to hear from me, who's younger, and I'm going to make
them the most money they've ever made. They'll instantly say thank you, but
no thanks. What they're going to say is, are you able to be a steward of my
capital and appreciate what my family has built and continue that legacy
even through a third party? And that has been very successful for us,
honestly. And then the second thing is authenticity. People are much more
likely to invest in your fund if they understand what you're investing in.
A lot of the times I see with emerging managers try to either overcomplicate
their investing strategy to make it seem more grandiose than it is, or
undersell what they're doing. And so that the alpha they're trying to
portray is not quite to the degree that they actually know. So understanding
that there's a nuance in the middle between how much I want to share so
they understand it and trust me enough to manage the money, right? But not
too, you know, undercomplicated where it seems like I'm just following, but
maybe a well-known retail investor on X would do. So that that middle ground
is surprisingly underappreciated. What are some of the common questions
these family office types are asking you?
There's a few questions in particular, right? I mean, the common one is,
you know, what differentiates you? Right? Where it's like that be age or,
you know, your historical knowledge, maybe your strategies returns,
et cetera, which all of us see are very important. But to what I said,
it's, you know, how will you take care of the next generation?
Because the funds that you manage are going to be impacting the amount of
capital or philanthropy that the family office can do right throughout the
time. And so are you, you know, how long are the lockout periods? How long are the redemption periods,
right? Family offices do not necessarily invest for the one, two, and three year, on average,
right? They're looking at the five year, the ten year, the twenty year. So it's age in this case
can actually sometimes be an advantage because if I'm younger, then I will be with them a lot longer,
right, than an older manager. So will you continue to value our investments throughout time,
even if you get a lot bigger? And the answer is always yes, right? So every dollar that we're
investing is something that we hold an equal value because the whole point of the firm is,
you know, that transparency, that credibility, and that that consensus agreement.
So honestly, the main question is, right, how will you treat the next generation? And sometimes
there's a lot of answers to that, but we've noticed that be the most frequent.
Do they expect you to provide some sort of mentorship for their grandkids? And is that part
of the arrangement as well? Not necessarily, but I've noticed that if you're willing to offer
that advice, if they're willing to take it and show them at the journey that you're going on,
and if they want to contribute, it can be an added bonus, right? So every time I meet with them,
I offer this because I love teaching it. And there's a lot I like to learn. And so, you know,
by teaching and I learn more. And so I think showing that you care, right, it's not just about money,
right? The reason these families have done so well is obviously they're great investors,
but they built businesses that last in businesses that last have fundamental values, mission,
and core theses that continue throughout generations. And so if I'm saying I understand that,
and I respect that and I value that, and I want to make sure that if you trust in me,
I can make sure the next generations understand the value that I'm bringing you all to them.
It makes the conversation go from an inquisition to compatibility and an acquisition of ideas.
You've met with plenty of wealthy families. You see how they operate. You see the principles
that they govern. You see how they think about wealth. What are some principles that you've learned
from then? With regards to wealth creation and wealth preservation that you think are very
important. Things people should know. I would say understand the necessity of short term ideals.
But appreciate the long term value that compound interest creates. A lot of problems with today's
society is the dopamine addiction, right, when you're scrolling through seeing something you like
or buying something that you look at, maybe on a TikTok ad, for example. And so obviously it's not
very good for our brains. So on one hand, you have to understand that these people are very short
term attention spans. And that matters also with investing as we see the momentum investing,
right? So that's going to be a theme with these people just buying stocks super quickly. And
there are certain apps that make it very easy to do that. And then on the long term side,
appreciating that those fundamental values are super important for the firm, even if the CEO is
no longer there, right? So you have to understand that short term trends are important. But people
historically are also pretty similar. And so over the long time, if you're able to understand
the principles of human history and how nations rise and fall, then you're also going to be able
to use the short term context and the long term historical context in your investment portfolios
across different industries. What does these sort of barbell immediate diet look like for you?
And for our viewers who haven't heard of this concept of the barbell immediate diet,
the way I see it is trying to understand what no one mentioned about that short term,
understanding the cost of what's happening, say X and then long term being more so a reading,
deep research, long form pieces. But what does it look like for you?
I think it's a mix of everything because there's no singular right answer that matters to everybody.
And so I look at both, and it's not having this one source be the truth of all information
because inherently that's not possible. And so for me, it's finding the nuance in between
these answers and not necessarily always focusing on definitive. I think mistakes that people make
is looking for definitive because then that will agree with maybe their cognitive dissonance.
And so if I can find the people that have nuance but is backed by facts,
right, I'm more likely to look into that piece of information than say this company is going to
do this and it's guaranteed. I don't operate in guarantees as a manager. I don't. What are you
operated? I operate a nuance. So I know our turns can be maybe one thing this year and one thing
that year. But as long as the consistency of the portfolio, the risk management, you know,
how we break things down are the same. That's what matters to me. And so if I'm analyzing a
business, it's kind of reading between the lines, right, you have to appreciate the face value.
They're operating margins. They're growth potential. They're research and development.
But it's also like historically when this company is faced by hard challenges,
how do they respond? Right. And then it's valid finding the balance in between those things.
So when this company had a hard challenge, how did it affect their cash and operating margins?
When they had media appearances, were they just deflecting the problems that they had? Or did
they face on those challenges so that their shareholders could feel better and understand where
the company is going? So I think living in the middle ground, but appreciating the polarity that
these sides bring together. And if you can combine all of that, you can build a pretty substantially
successful firm. When you study the top firms, obviously you aspire to be up there.
What are some things you think people miss about these firms that they shouldn't?
I think they miss the infrastructure. And they also miss the training. A lot of these top firms,
Worldquan, for example, which is an amazing training ground, you know, SIG, which has an amazing
training program, Change Tree, HRT. A lot of these firms focus on human capital, which means
can I bring the brightest and best minds, the tools, the information, the educational training
that will allow them to succeed? Right? It's not necessarily saying I'm going to have all my
employees completely replaced by AI. For example, it's saying can I have 10 to 15 really intelligent
people train them? And then instead of having one trader with AI, I have 15. And so having that
operational infrastructure to allow people to learn, feel valued, and then want to grow
is one of the biggest things that companies miss about culture. They assume it's just because
they're the smartest. They're going to do the best. But it's actually the environments that are
created that allow the brightest minds to learn in a way that they find enjoyable. Have fun,
but also understand that, you know, these things matter a lot is honestly the biggest advantage.
Everyone talks about capital consolidation, everyone talks about how the biggest hedge funds,
biggest trading firms own the market, and that it's impossible to compete.
You obviously believe that you can be very big, otherwise you wouldn't be betting on yourself.
What takes a firm like yours, good size, but in the grand scheme of things, still quite small
compared to those guys, what takes you from this point now to hopefully being one of the big five?
It is finding the right people to work with and continuously be open to new ideas,
but also at the same time, respect that there are some things I can't change.
And so, you know, I can't change the fundamental values of the business,
or how we operate on a core standpoint, but what I can do is know that as long as I continue
to have intellectual curiosity, continue to understand that things change over time,
and complacency will be the downfall of our firm, and understand that even though times change,
people don't, and as long as I can study those trends, even if it takes me a while,
then I will have the ability to continue to grow this firm and raise capital.
How do you think about building a personal note for yourself?
You talk to a little bit about infrastructure of the big firms, people miss that.
I think another thing people miss is competitive advantage of one's own skill set.
You mentioned reading, no one reads now, so it's clearly a huge edge, right?
You mentioned mindfulness, everyone's addicted to scrolling, another edge.
What are some things that you try to build within yourself to create that differential?
that competitive advantage and build up a
moat around what you can do.
- I think it's understanding the culture of the business,
as one of my partner says, in the beginning of the day,
we're in the people's business and the end of the day,
we're in the results business.
I'm understanding that while returns are inherently
mathematical, there's a people aspect
that's very important.
So, personality, can you and I have a conversation
about investing, or about the firm,
or about the macro themes that are going on in the world
that make you feel appreciated for your standpoint,
even if you're the one investing in my firm.
And so, that could look like us playing ping pong.
It doesn't necessarily have to be in a boardroom.
And so, understanding that serious conversations,
but also intellectual conversations,
don't necessarily have to be in the most spiffy of places.
I think a lot of people mistake the 90th floor boardroom
conversations for being inherently a lot more valuable,
and maybe the coffee chats.
But it's not the environment, like the physical setting
that has the biggest impact.
It's the relationship we have with the other person,
your personality, and your willingness to be open.
And so, if you're mindful, like I said,
you're able to stay in that present moment,
and not necessarily think about, oh,
because I'm not in a suit.
Maybe they're not taking me seriously.
No, it's about the human connection.
As AI grows and as social media grows,
people will become more displaced.
But if you're able to understand that we are social creatures,
and that we must appreciate people for who they are first,
and maybe what they can do second,
it will allow you to grow in an industry
that's continuing to be more and more mathematical
because it's human nature.
And I would actually even argue that that boardroom setting
that's suit and tie on, our environments,
where people are guarded, it's very difficult
to get to know someone on the N90th floor.
And on that, on meeting people, on hiring,
how do you vet a great hire?
How do you vet someone, and really take a step back
and say this guy's exceptional.
This girl's exceptional.
And it's obviously one of the trickiest parts of any business
because if you make the wrong hire,
you have to go through the process of however long it takes
to unfortunately fire them.
And then you have to make up all the lost time
in the same process.
So I know in tech startups, work trials
have been more commonplace recently,
which I think is pretty good like tankhole materials.
I don't necessarily care about how much you know in the moment.
I care about how much you're willing to learn for the future
and understanding the work it will take to get there.
From what I've known as the greatest hires,
they may not necessarily agree with me
on every investment idea,
but they may not even agree with me
on the color of the jacket I wear.
But if they understand that to get better,
you have to be open, you can't be complacent.
They're inherently intellectually curious
and they're personable, right? They get along with the team,
then more likely than not,
that hire will be more successful.
Even if they didn't have the highest grossing returns
or like this unbeatable strategy,
which doesn't even exist, right?
But if they have those other qualities,
then I can get along with them and I can train them
and I can appreciate them for who they are
and then they'll appreciate us for who we are
and then we'll grow together as a firm.
- I have a good friend who's a hedge fund manager
and he says the number one thing he screens for
is just rate of improvement.
What are your thoughts?
- I mean, it goes in line with what I said.
Right? It's that intellectual curiosity.
Can you have that exponential curve
that allows the person to feel appreciated
but also demonstrate that they know what they're doing?
And so if they're able to rapidly improve
like your friend said over and over again,
that's gonna be a great hire.
Even if they're not perfect at the beginning,
they can get really good over and over and over again.
That person's gonna be invaluable to your firm.
- This friend of mine, he sees a parallel
between great hires and great stocks
and one thing he looks for in great stocks
is how fast the fundamentals are improving.
In fact, if he sees an acceleration,
he likes to look at those names and really go deep on them.
And then he sees that when betting on people
underwriting talent, he sees a similar thing.
Are there any investing principles or ideas
that you have that have allowed you to take a step back
and see interesting things or observations
about the world that you think most people don't notice?
- I would say the number one most underappreciated asset
by big companies is culture.
And so a thing that is very well known as Project Aristotle,
which was done by Google,
and understanding that the teams that are the most successful
are the ones that allow people to communicate
and share their ideas and environments
where they don't feel judged,
allows the best companies to succeed.
And so if you can understand a company's culture
which can be hard if you can't see the underlying business,
but even seeing how employees interact with CEOs
or how people talk about other employees
at the companies that are at.
It can be a huge asset even though it is inherently
the most intangible thing that you can possibly quantify.
- On that, on openness of culture,
I see this sort of,
I see a contrast between that and the top funds.
Your pod shops are possibly the most brutal cultures
on the planet among any company.
It's intense, but at the same time,
a lot of people like that.
How do you view those two sides of the coin?
- I think just because one egg fits in one basket
doesn't mean it's gonna necessarily fit in the other one.
And so if you're somebody that's hardwired
and you're able to handle that intense feedback
and that intense culture, it makes sense that
they would go to a pod shop, right?
And inherently if that's where your mindset
you should follow what you enjoy.
And then on the flip side,
in my personal experience and my father
who runs culture and compliance
at a very large state of company,
over the long run, the companies that are gonna succeed,
even if it's not necessarily in the moment,
but over the hundred year time frame
are the ones that have that culture
that is not based on you're doing the wrong thing every time,
but here's what you're doing that could have improvement
and like your friend said, that exponential rate of improvement.
I mean, in my opinion, I think that that is something
that I would find a lot more enjoyable to work in
because I want to also enjoy what I do
and feel valued for that.
And I don't necessarily wanna get attacked
or aggressively criticized for something
that I may have messed up on.
I'd rather have the feedback be constructive
and allow me to grow as an investor and a trader as well.
What's one thing about yourself
that the audience should understand
in order to understand you as a person
and as an investor better?
I am here to learn and to be authentic about what I do.
I'm not gonna masquerade pretending I'm somebody that I'm not.
You know, I'm not necessarily the most mathematically gifted
or the most violent, virtuoso person.
But what you see is what you get.
And so these interactions, right?
I want people to feel comfortable with who they are
and allow themselves to share stuff about themselves
that maybe they would wanna keep hidden to the public
which is completely understandable.
But I would much rather be an authentic founder
and authentic family member, an authentic friend
because in the long run of life, that's the most important.
Right, you know, they say people don't remember what you say.
They don't really remember what you do
but they remember how you make them feel.
And in an industry like finance
that has inherently clouded in harsh criticism,
you know, aggressive judgments.
I would rather be the firm that gives a breath of fresh air
and allows people to feel comfortable
in authentic and honest,
even if at the same time I'm not the highest performing
hedge fund every year for the next 50 years.
- I love it.
Another thing that blew me away about you
was you were actually a professional violinist.
Talking about that and do you see any parallels
between being a violinist and in investing?
- Thank you for the kind words.
I certainly try my best.
You know, I started playing when I was three and a half.
My mom and I joke that I was in, you know, pre-K.
I looked across the room and I saw a stand
with the guy with a violin.
I was like, "Mom, I want to play that one."
She's like, "Okay, no, you know, like you're pretty young
"but let's try it out."
And so I think the correlation is not necessarily
about the instrument itself.
It's about why I play it, right?
It's a way for me to express emotions and authenticity
and, you know, also having a regist structure, right?
Like reading music.
music and hearing it, and so it makes me a better investor because it's always about constant
improvement.
There's always something I can do better, a certain note that could be more in tune,
a certain shift that can be cleaner.
And so from that correlation, it's the same as investing, right, that rate of exponential
improvement.
So musicians are magic players, you know, magicians, and things that maybe don't appear as
interesting, like solving your Rubik's Cube, which is cool, right, but maybe you're like,
"Oh, how is that related to investing?"
But it's kind of allowing your brain to grow from all angles, like your left brain and
your right brain.
If I give the intellectual curiosity and the brain food that will allow me to grow as an
overall individual, whether that be music, or, you know, Rubik's Cubes or digital art,
I think that will give you an inherent edge.
As an investor, because you'll have more of your brain you can literally use to understand
these problems.
Do you like to look for people who have that, when you hire them?
Absolutely.
I think it also gives a unique story, one of the business partners I've been talking to
is a former professional baseball player, and it's interesting, you know, they went from
a professional athlete to a hedgehog manager, and they're crushing it.
And I think it's the ability to differentiate, not just your work, but the things you enjoy
in life, because sometimes those things can correlate more than people realize.
If you have a home life that's very stressful, or family members are not feeling well, or
friends are not doing well, it's kind of kind of bleed into the work you're doing, even
if you don't intentionally do that.
But if people are multifaceted and multi-talented, and are used to having stress in different
areas, but can appreciate their life as a whole, it will make them operate as an investor,
or as a manager, or operationally, at a higher level than if they didn't have that initially.
I think there was a thread or a tweet about Steve Jobs that I saw a couple months ago,
and it stuck with me, because it was trying to dissect his creativity, and his genius.
And when you really look at anyone who has been able to come up with something differentiated,
you know, differentiated output, their inputs were differentiated as well.
And so you look at Steve Jobs, he's a guy who was a super high IQ hippie that was fascinated
by computers, like what the fuck is that, you know, it's ridiculous.
And I think in some sense, and I think Josh Kushner is a great example of this, he tries
to cultivate a differentiated set of inputs all the time.
He's a venture capitalist, but he's fascinated by calligraphy and all these different things,
and I think in some sense, now obviously you're so very young, and you haven't achieved
that level of success at all.
But I would say you have a very differentiated set of inputs in that you're still a college
student, you're building this great firm, hopefully, you play the violin professionally,
are there any conscious things you try to do in order to maintain differentiation in
your ideas?
I would say being open to new possibilities is the best way for me to find differentiation.
Even if there's something I think that may be right in one lens, it may not be right
in another lens, and that lens that I wasn't looking at before, may be the overall thing
that makes an investment not as good as another one.
And so obviously you have to have conviction, right?
You have to say, okay, I know that this industry, from the research I've done, is the most
optimal for this investment strategy, which is obviously very important, but at the same
time, if you're super tied to biases that you've built, then it won't allow you to look
at other possibilities that may be better for you in the long run.
Final question.
An on differentiation.
What is the single biggest differentiated thing about yourself would love to hear it?
Be curious.
Life is long.
Always be willing to learn new things.
That's one thing I really love about my life is conversations like this, new questions
I'm asked.
It's like neuroplasticity.
Your brain is always learning.
It's always developing.
So if you're curious, if you're authentic in your humble, I think you'll find you'll
have a pretty awesome life, and it'll make you a happier person, and it will make you
better investor.
I love it.
Thank you for coming on.
It's on open.
This was awesome, man.
Thank you so much for having me.
I appreciate it.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
A 22-year-old hedge fund manager discusses the challenges and misconceptions of running a fund, emphasizing it as stressful and unglamorous.
The biggest surprise was the lack of risk management in the industry, despite finance being mathematical but driven by emotional human decisions.
Transparency and honesty are competitive advantages, especially for emerging managers, in an otherwise opaque business.
The manager’s journey started at 16 with stock investing, includes running a crypto trading firm at 17, and a first hedge fund at 19, now co-managing Vanary with his twin brother.
Youth is an advantage because it prevents complacency, fostering continuous learning and adaptability, unlike older managers reliant on past success.
Studying behavioral finance and historical events, like the Great Depression, helps understand market psychology and avoid biases.
The firm uses a macro discretionary strategy, focusing on geopolitics, domestic infrastructure, and non-sexy businesses, with risk management rules like strict stop losses and consensus decision-making.
Operational pillars include a reading list, mindfulness, and a strong team to separate investing from business operations, aiding in raising capital from family offices.
Key principles for success include intellectual curiosity, cultural appreciation, and differentiating inputs, such as playing the violin, to enhance investment thinking.
Summary:
The transcript features a 22-year-old hedge fund manager, Noah, discussing his experience launching and running Vanary, a multi-strategy macro fund with his twin brother. He challenges the glamorized view of hedge funds, calling it the "least sexy business," and highlights the stress, short timelines, and constant learning required. His biggest surprise was the widespread lack of risk management, emphasizing that markets are driven by emotional people, not just algorithms.
Noah attributes his success to transparency and honesty, which build investor trust, and sees his youth as an advantage, preventing complacency and forcing continuous adaptation. He studies behavioral finance and historical events like the Great Depression to understand market psychology and avoid biases. The firm’s strategy focuses on macro discretionary investing, geopolitical trends, and domestic infrastructure, with strict risk management protocols, including stop losses and consensus-based decisions.
Operational practices, such as a reading list and mindfulness, help maintain focus, while a strong team separates investing from business tasks. He successfully raised capital from wealthy families by emphasizing stewardship of capital for future generations and authenticity. Ultimately, he believes intellectual curiosity, cultural understanding, and differentiated inputs—like his professional violin playing—provide a competitive edge, concluding that being curious and humble leads to a better life and investing success.
FAQs
Being 22 means you can't afford to be complacent; you must constantly stay on the edge and learn, which fuels continuous improvement and adaptability.
The lack of risk management in the industry, despite finance being mathematical, because people are inherently emotional and markets are driven by human decisions.
They start with thorough due diligence, set strict stop losses and max drawdowns, and never break their own rules, ensuring they act as responsible stewards of capital.
They use a macro discretionary approach with sleeves in long/short equities, options, and ETFs, focusing on themes like geopolitics and behavioral finance.
They study behavioral finance and historical events like the Great Depression to understand winners and losers, using that knowledge to back-test current situations without repeating past mistakes.
They look for unsexy, operationally efficient businesses that aren't polarizing, like HVAC companies tied to data centers, rather than chasing trendy names.
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