20VC: Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI: Fool or Genius? | Alex Karp Sounds the Alarm: Enterprises Fear Frontier Models & Questionable ROI of AI | The Rise of Chinese Open Source: Deepseek Building Own Chips

It's like rewriting Atlas Shrugged. What John Gold goes to Washington and says, "Why don't you regulate me more? Why don't you take more? Why don't you take us, Mr. Mooch, grab some of my stuff? What the fuck are these people thinking volunteering for this stuff? Madness." - No one's worried about making their last round high-priced investors money anymore. Literally no one is. - Every technology company either goes bust, or lives long enough to become next generation's IBM. - As an employee today, why would you join something that you don't believe will have secondary options? - This is 20 VC with me, Harry Stabbings. Now it's my favorite show of the week. Rory O'Dresskell, Jason Lampkin, analyzing the biggest news in tech this week. So what are we discussing? Number one, Washington lifts the fabled five ban. What does this mean moving forward? Second, open AI floats giving the US government a 5% stake? Whoa, Sam, baby, hold up. Number three, deep seek is developing its own chip, my word. And then number four, Meta-Compute Launches Cloud Business, which caused the stock price to jump 10%. Thank God we've needed it, Zach. This and so much more in the show today. But before we dive into the show today, you have the idea, but with most AI tools, you hit a wall, the setup, the config, the gap between what you pictured and what you actually ship. Well, base 44 is where that wall disappears. You describe it. Yeah, base 44 builds it. Apps, websites, AI agents, real working products. Built in minutes using nothing but plain language. And it's all batteries included. The back end, the database, the authentication, the hosting, the heavy lifting is handled. So you just really stay in the flow. This doesn't just take the busy work off your plate, but it gives you an advantage and pushes you past what you thought you could build alone. So in this market, fast is the baseline. To win, you just have to be first. 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That's a common thing. Listen, we're going to start with the news of the day, or one of the most pressing topics, which is Washington lifts the 19-day Fable 5 ban. How did we analyze Washington lifting the ban? And what it means moving forward for both OpenAI and Anthropic in terms of the permissions they have to get? Well, it's a quagmire in the sense that you've now been entrapped in some kind of pre-approval process. And the fact they're talking about some kind of structured pre-approval process, but that hasn't been finalized yet. But the zoom-out comment is, you know, six months ago, you could ship software like a free man. And now you have to get permission from Washington before you do it. It's a big change. How does it pan out who the hell knows? There are some arguments in part in the cybersecurity for some process, but it's definitely a big step. And all other things been equal. You'd prefer not to have to get permission for many administration before you can pursue your business. I think part of the reason the US is such a dynamic economy is because we don't have it on it out. You have does. Now we do. It's near the GDPR and here we are. - Whether more regulation is better, people have been talking about safety in AI for a long time, which is not the same issue, but a related issue for a long time. This is the grown-up state of LLM's in AI. It's just going to have this level of oversight, whether we like it or not. At the end of the day, this particular issue seems minor only because Fables going to sort of a variable pricing, per token pricing in a week or two anyway. So most of us aren't even gonna use it because it's too expensive. It's gonna be a niche model, at least until it, until it percolates into the standard opus and sonnet over the coming months. So the rural impact will be minor. The world's changed to me. Sam Altman offering 5% of his company to the US government was much more interesting in some ways than whether some suboptimal but inevitable oversight is coming to the LLM's. - I totally agree. And that was gonna be my net point, which is like if you take that one step further in terms of government intrusion or government opinion, Sam saying, hey, take 5%, how do we think about that? - Well, if you own 100% of it, now you're only on 95, you're kind of a little bit pissed. Or if you own none of it, you're not very pissed 'cause you're not getting diluted at all. - Yeah, I will happily give you away some of it. I'm not again stepping back. What problem is he trying to solve? I mean, I think it's absurd to be clear. But let's try and go from first principles. By definition, it's not any of the security issues we just talked about, which at least are vaguely credible. It's not cyber. It's some kind of macro AI is going to destroy everyone's job so we gotta give back. And they're produced a nine point plan open AI did. I think about a month ago. Some kind of, we've got to rethink everything because of the economics of AI and they're talking about maybe we need to, I mean, let's put it out there, the grandiosity. We're talking about restructuring the taxation system of America to tax more and cap gains and less on income because so many people are gonna be put out of work because of AI that we want to lower the tax burden on labor and increase it on capital. And this is all part of that. And the whole thing is so delusional and so far from where we are now, then I just stop listening. You've got a really great growing company. No discernible impact on employment yet. You've got a bunch of issues. You got to sort out because you have been lapped by your direct competitor and your focus is a, on telling Congress that they should, you know, remember, for context, if they give 5% of untopic is $50 billion, your focus is telling Congress that raises plus or minus $5 trillion a year. So you're 1% of it for one year. Your whole donation gets where to 1% of a raise for one year that they should restructure their entire taxation system. Sure, we'll get right onto that. The House Ways and Means Committee, we'll call a committee every lobbyist. It's like kicking off a process that you won't be able to control and I predict. I mean, it does go back to the kind of comment on pre-approval. You start with pre-approval. Suddenly you end up with an ownership interest. Then you end up with a board member. And what the, are these people doing? What John Gold goes to Washington and says, why don't you regulate me more? Mooch? Grab some of my stuff. What the fuck are these people thinking, volunteering for this stuff? Madness. I completely agree with you at first, right? 100%. I'm like, this is the weirdest kissing the ring in a weird corrupt administration where our president made $2 billion off crypto in friends last year in profits. And that's cool now. It's cool for the president to actively trade any stock, his own memes coin and make $2 billion in one year. I mean, the guy's 80. What does he need it for? So at first I was with Rory, but then I step back from it and I'm like, listen, Sam Altman, beyond being the CEO of OpenEye is one of the most successful investors of our gender, of effort, of all time. And he knows everything about how startups and scale-ups are run. And he's seen it all. And I think in some way, he runs OpenEye with that playbook in a way the others don't, okay? It's like a superstar-up. How he funds it, how he thinks about it, the relationships, the scaling. And to me, when I step back, after I had the exact same view as Rory, like this is crazy kissing the ring, crazy stuff. This is not Intel dying. It's like, you know, you give 5% of your company a Shopify like Clavio did so they don't destroy you. We see this all the time in our portfolio. Like you don't wanna give 40% of your company to your partner and 5% is not immaterial. What I've learned from my portfolio and I think you guys will agree, is it creates an unexpectedly large amount of alignment. You sell 5% of your company to a $100 billion partner. It don't matter to Rory's point. It just don't matter if they own 5% of your startup. It doesn't matter how almost how big you are, it is immaterial, but I'm constantly shocked how much that brings you into the boardroom. How it brings you, so my only point is, and I could be wrong, giving 5% of your company to placate the federal government so that you're the good guy now. You're like Stargate 2.0 when Sam was up there, right? With Larry and everybody, he was the good guy for a little while. I think as an investor, I take the delusion. - No, no, no, no. I mean, I understand what you're saying, and I'm gonna paraphrase, "Ordership Stake," which much larger entities align the large entity with the smaller entity, and that's what this is and it's a good thing. - More than I would have expected as a founder. - More than you would have expected to meet. So let's look at the-- - It couldn't have all. - Because it shouldn't, because it's immaterial of the federal government and it's immaterial to envidiate taking stakes in most companies. It's immaterial to the economics, right? - There's two arguments I'll make against that. The first is a business one, and then the second is a government one. My business one, Microsoft owns 30% of open AI. If ownership stake resulted in besties, they'd be besties. They're not besties. They're in a still marriage looking for a divorce, but can't quite pay an attack. It hasn't worked. And that's with 30% alignment with a profit maximizing entity that Microsoft who is rational. Now apply that to the US government. The idea that because they own some of you, they'll align with you is just, that's just not the way politics works. Go back, look at the tarp. And now admittedly that was when the banks had screwed up. So, they come in, they own a little bit, they don't avoid in control, but they tell you who you can pay and who you can pay. And the weak banks deserve that, but JP Morgan was like, "Why am I getting that?" That's the tarp. If you think in this case, 'cause not only have you said, give me 5%, but you've also produced a document that says, the things that we're doing are so catastrophically impacted on the economy of this country, Mr. Congressman, that you govern, that you need to redo your entire taxation system. It's about an hour before Bernie Sanders says, "You know you're right. This is really impact for maybe we should go for 50." Because if you really are impacting a $30 trillion economy, if that's your, in my view, absurd statement, but you've made it, and Davie has made it, so you're entitled to ownership. If you really are destroying labor in a $30 trillion economy, do you think the monster, the political monster is gonna say, "I'll settle for five." That's grand. Call it 50 billion. You've destroyed 50 trillion of labor value, but we'll settle for 50 billion. Bernie's already said he wants 50, and you deserve whatever happens to you, right? You deserve being regulated by the government. You deserve having to be intrusive. I mean, maybe you get some small and tactical, but it's such a mistake. Why did they do it then? These are not dumb people. You're a very smart people. They're really smart people. Yeah. And because they believe rightly or wrongly, that the impact of this technology is so important that all these things need to be on the table. And to be fair, that belief is what gave them the self-motivation and the confidence to raise billions of dollars. And that narrative is what it took. 'Cause if you walked in and said, "Hey, I need 10 billion dollars to build some stuff, and it's gonna have a minor impact on some parts of compute." And you got your 10 billion. You needed to tell a story like every great CEO. This is the world's greatest fundraising CEOs telling the biggest story. And they told the biggest story, and that's what allowed them to get the now 160 billion dollars. But once you've told that story, and genuinely once you believe it, and in the case of Enthropy, in particular, once all your employees believe it, if you believe this thing is dangerous from a cyber perspective, from a job's perspective, you just suddenly end up down this road, right? All these things become next level logical, if in fact the basic premise is correct. And if on the other hand, you believe is for what little or me does, and I'm not damn, I didn't invent this shit, but it's like, it's a really important technology, but it's not gonna put 50% of the US labor market unemployed. Then you believe these kind of preemptive changes and conversations are a wild overreaction and wildly early. And we'll find out which it is. I mean, look, in five years time, if Darry was correct, and 50% of white collar jobs have been replaced by AI, which I don't believe for a second, then you damn right, there's gonna be political controversy. And if you think five percent's gonna feed that beast, you're delusional. If half those nice middle class people and the middle class jobs all across this country lose their jobs to AI, it's gonna take a lot more than, I think it works out to about $140 per head, which is what the five percent of my topic would be worth to keep the wolf on the door. So if you believe these things are gonna happen, that's why they do it. I just don't, so I'm like, whatever, this is a mistake. Is this purely a marketing exercise? What's, who are you marketing to? Congress sanitors that you're willing to align yourself, you're willing to play bull, you're open, you're not this wolf stealing jobs. And your punters. You're not the wolf that you said you were. I mean, again, it's like, hi, I'm a wolf, but I'm a good wolf, right? I mean, is it trying to clean up the mess you created to some extent? Yes. You spend three years saying everyone's gonna be unemployed because of this thing and it's wildly dangerous. And now you're like trying to walk that back while at the same time sucking up. And if I'm gonna ask you to regulate, or as you said, Rory last week, I think quite wisely, maybe tax, Chinese or open source models, maybe be helpful if we had a line number beforehand. If I'm about to have a big ask. I think Sam is a very thoughtful communicator and he puts stuff out there early to socialize it. And they seem like little comments and they seem like exposition, but I think they're all very carefully thought through. And I think the issue is less about, and in worry, just hit this, with Bernie Sanders. The issue is less about whether it's a good idea to 5%, I'd say do it like the Klavio Shopify thing if you think it's gonna work. It's more so it's not 50 or 20. Sam is just anchoring this idea that, hey, 5% will align us with American people with the federal government, with the administration without getting to politics. And he's anchoring this at five rather than 50 because not only does he need the alignment, he's sensing the political win. So I think it's, you know, these things seem to come out of nowhere, but I think he's a very interesting communicator. He's a very good anchor in a way that isn't triggering generally speaking, the way he does this, maybe other things are triggering. And he does a pretty good job of telegraphing where we might end up before it happens, right? So I think it's just anchoring. Maybe it really doesn't matter what we think because it's already happened. The decision essentially has already been made that the federal government will be acquiring a stake in open AI. And Sam is just anchoring it as the smallest possible stake to get ahead of this discussion. - That hasn't happened yet, to be clear. I mean, that decision hasn't been made. Now, you are, I mean, the US government for the first time in a long time and definitely absent the bailout has already taken stakes in a bunch of tech companies like Intel. So who knows, maybe it'll happen again. And decision hasn't been caught and caught taken. I don't think this administration has a decision-making process, but you're right. It's definitely caught and caught on the table. Just being clear, does this change anything for Dario? I mean, to be clear, the proposal from OpenAI, I just to be grounded in facts, wasn't we give OpenAI, I guess 5% it was like company should. So the implied statement is everyone should including unsupping. It's like, hey, wish everyone should give away 5% for the US government. So at the same extent, he's volunteering other people's capital. - I mean, it just all gets to the same and we started with Fable. It all gets to the same thing. The US government is going to get ennashed in AI in a whole load of different, probably contradictory ways, right? It can range from, as I say, cyber danger to wide or regulatory danger, to economics, to Chinese open source threats. You're just going to be enmeshed in politics. And it's funny, because when you watch the internet take off, the whole emphasis was cut us free. And if you look at two of the biggest deals at the start of the internet, maybe three big. I'm going to give you three really interesting 1990s regulatory issues that were amazing for the internet under the exact opposite of today. One, you have the Telecom deregulation act that said AT&T, you got to be broken up and everyone's got to give independent access, which allowed broadband to take off. You had section, I think, 230, the one that said websites are not liable for third party comments on their website, which effectively is what Google, Facebook, and everyone has relied on. So it was a huge amount of free speech. And then the third one was for a long time, no sales tax, which you could argue the justice of. But all those things were basically silicon valley managed to have 20 year run with the internet where the message to Washington was leave us alone and we did great. It's just super wrench. And now many of those have been revisited. It's just super interesting. We're going with the exact opposite approach now, which is, hey, don't miss us, regulate us, you know, putting our hand up and saying, pick us, we'd like to be regulated too. I mean, oil and gas must be looking at this going, wow, these people are crazy. Like no one doubt an exon is saying, you know, oil and gas is really important. Why don't we give Washington 5% and check in advance before we do drilling, you know? You know, there's a different, since just because this is 20 VC, not that I disagree with any of that, but maybe this is too micro of a point. But I think in the age of AI, massive delusion has been sort of institutionalized. Founders don't care anymore. Not all founders, not all founders. But even two years ago, before all of this, before these massive rounds, I would say most folks were fairly delusion-sensitive. Certainly, VCs always have been to an extent. Now I find founders, you'll look at really hot startups in the news. And if you peel the layers back and you look at the stub rounds and the up rounds and the half rounds, they've done 16, 17, 20 venture rounds often, right? Even if each one is 5% delusion, 20 rounds at 5% delusion, Rory, help me with the math. It's a lot of delusion. And so, and look at, look at Anthropic. You've got Dario at 1.0% equity, right? Sam's at nominally zero. So, I mean, Anthropic is the most successful startup of our lifetimes, but the founder owns 1.0% percent. It's just an example, but I see it across. tons not all, right? But so 5% it's like nothing man. It's like I just that's like the stub around I did last week. I did around at 10 and then 14 and then 18 and 22 and 29 and Tecron trunks it up each time. But those 5% since 6% add up. They really add up, right? Every ramp press release it's so exciting. But I hope they're not too delutive because there's just so many of them. It's an interesting point and I think fundamentally I don't think I'd of those CEOs are primarily money motivated. But you are I just great point Jason. You are right. It is a different normally the two winners in a spec, you know, like if you look at Microsoft, Bill and Paul Allen or you know Good Slugge each and even Barmer owned enough to buy a basketball team at the end of an insubitious man in the world, one of the richest men in the world. And you are right. It is really odd where one one of the two CEOs on one point seven percent and the other one zero. You're right. It totally takes the edge after the solution conversation because it's someone else's money. It's not that I say there's a seed investor I sort of hate it because you know you should I've watched myself be deluded to levels I never even thought would ever happen right when I started investing like like literally. So as an investor you have to internalize and realize it's based it for me it's doubling again my entry price right as a seed investor I used to think my real entry price was twice what it looked because of delusion. Now I'm thinking it's four times. So Harry just talked about during a seed deal at 60 right I think you're really doing it at 240 Harry is the honest math today right and founders not all founders look there is absolutely a vibe of I'm going through YC I'm going to raise six at 60 and never raise again. Amen right but so many founders today after that first round are not delusion sensitive and maybe it makes sense if it's a huge outcome it's just different it's just different. The only fact based comment I'll make is you know the data from Carter which is always X and says the delusion per round is going down so maybe in part founders are willing to raise more because the delusion per dollar is lower so maybe not the founders of unsropic opening I but in general if the pricing goes up you know you can do more rounds and then I put the same delusion I think that's happening a lot of cases as well. Yeah but I think what I'm personally seen and I think Dara's an example I'm seeing both I'm seeing smaller rounds but so many rounds yeah so many rounds that each round you you kind of don't mind as an investor a board member great do let's well that's a great deal at 6% delusion fight that's not double digits and then four months later you do another one and four months later and it's it sounds like I'm complaining I'm just learning but if I'm doing that 5% to hold off any regulatory issues man that just do it. You are right I like the learning comment because you're right look I will admit that one of the areas where I think I may have been too rigid as you know you do think about you know you don't have hard ownership targets but you want to have between 5 and 10% of investment to matter and you know you're seeing now you know Sparks gonna do amazing and very deservedly they're gonna own 1% plus or minus SpaceX I think found it who did the original check when the rockets were still blowing up for God's sake right ballsy is check out there you know there's sub 5% a 3% or 4% of SpaceX right so you're right Jason I think for these huge outcomes the mental math and the mental model you had gets really turned on its head which makes sense if you have three orders of magnitude larger exit you can get away with just about anything on the delusion side I mean Ramston 12 announced rounds according to Clod so I'm gonna guess it's more like with stub rounds like 24 rounds typically right I think it's on 24 rounds of funding right and Databricks was down in the second half of the alphabet it was like a series M there like I love the way they actually named it not just like another late they really made series M these are honest found these are actually old school founders living in the AI age of Databricks they're honest right it's not performative at Databricks you know who I love though and then we'll get back to normal scary carrier linear the dude is so disciplined and so focused he's raised two rounds of funding he never wants to meet VCs he really but refuses all VC intros never make sure it's that's the right outcome yes it will return my fun one multiple times over and I'm incredibly grateful to him on the team for doing so no I listen I'm not being critical it's a beloved product right with real traction and it'll return your fun one that's great to use Royce term everyone's talking their game a little bit right and so when I sometimes I see him say that I agree with it as a founder right I'm I love it but sometimes you know I hear a little bit of Brian Armstrong in that you know it's it's a because like listen maybe I could have done even better as great as linear is maybe I could have done even better but I chose to be capital efficient and sometimes I feel like but was that the right choice in 2026 when the prize is so large if the exits a couple billion five billion it's good if the exits a hundred billion then you just I'm not I'm not literally I just sometimes wonder when I see it and I'm not saying that I'm right I'm not remotely saying I'm right I think what you're weighing off to try and kind of step by step what you're weighing off is optionality versus upside there's no doubt if the if the prize is a trillion dollars which it has been in at least three cases it looks like it really doesn't matter what it takes to get there you just have to get there and if skimping on it reduces the probability of getting there even 10 percent it's a huge mistake if on the other hand the prize is as you say a billion or five billion then raising too much eliminates the optionality of taking that billion dollar exit right and you know to be fair to a founder 20 percent of a billion dollar exit is life changing life just especially the QSBS for now I think the truth is it's different by opportunity not every opportunity is an entropic opportunity and there's going to be I mean linear is a hard one to place in that because you squint one way and you go very bounded very well executed will be a great outcome no matter what you do to your point Jason you can't see another world where do you have to become something bigger to even matter yep I think there's a related point just for founders today that's changed this in some cases insensitivity to delusion is different it's just different right because if the outcomes massive it doesn't matter and the other one that has changed to Rory's point and I think this is a positive because it's certainly terrified me as a founder but it's not all positive is no one's worried about making their last round high price investors money anymore literally no one is because I believe investors have learned to accept one X when it doesn't work out without drama without blocking without threats I'm not saying weird PE firms and non-standard investors they play games all the time I see I see I'm watching a threat through my portfolio from a non-standard VC right now that is blocking round after round after round but or the the scales of the world and they're you're not blocking exits and so I think founders oh I raised it four billion but maybe I exit at 800 and I get a 80 million carve out they're just not worried I was terrified as a founder out of for every run I would get blocked by the douchebags okay I just don't see any of that fear existed and founders anymore that's true and you're right and it never made sense to do it because the minute the final ones is at yourself but you write I do I across cycles I have seen the the hedge fund that you led into the last round suddenly just refused to sign the docs even though it's totally you know they're getting a one X and it's appropriate because if you think about the late-stage business you only taking one risk which is valuation which means your downside is is the one X you should be prepared to take that and move on yeah without drama right it's just changed all I think this is the age of growth investing and the fact there's no downside because your investors won't block that billion dollar around ads velocity on not on the investor side but on the founder side like I would I would have taken another round as a founder for sure if I if I thought I wasn't gonna get blocked it would have done in a heartbeat I didn't get it at first reason but now I'm getting and you're saying and that's the argument that says if the high price later round is relatively low blocking rights relatively low delusion and it gives you upside-up functionality and doesn't preclude downside optionality which is my point then you're saying I would be I would be wrong and in fact there are cases where if you as a founder running a company you're doing a hundred million does some chance it can be a billion dollar revenue company take the late-stage round it might work if it's a 50% chance it works if it doesn't yeah you have the preference act don't waste the money and you'll still be able to you know get out with the exit you would have had otherwise I don't know if I buy it but that's the argument I think it's a big but I can't think of a founder I've invested in doing the big round that is worried about the return on that high priced round it just I agree and my generation of founders we were terrified of it we were terrified of the expectations I remember those terms where you have the block unless it's a 2x sale and all that bullshit so you were really stuck with that late-stage money but I agree that's actually a fair point it's freed up the risk okay but I'm to schedule program one one video that was going incredibly viral was Alex cop on CNBC where he really said two things so I think were standout comments one is there's never been more skepticism from large enterprises towards frontier model providers specifically anthropic and open AI and then second that there is real questionability from those enterprises on the ROI of AI within their organizations anything to add any commentary on that yeah I actually watched it because all the whiny people were saying he looked arranged I watched the wheel enjoyed it but I actually thought he wasn't I mean I thought it was more stable than he normally does yeah it's so funny because some of the examples it's clear there's a whole lot of personal dynamics there and his examples about his college and his example all that that's just his baggage to bring to the table I read a biography recently super interesting dude obviously with a lot of angst so I think there's a lot of noise in the system from that and then you know it was cute he can't call Dowell your a world historical figure which is the Hagle concept you know the German philosophy of Alex Carp is of course a doctor of German philosophy so now we're dealing with big brain making big brain references on CNN which perhaps isn't the right place for it but when you strip away all that I think you're right howie the two comments he made was spot on goblmerk is saying I'm spending all this money am I getting anything which is the ROI comment and then the other kind of which I hadn't heard as much and it's obviously a little bit but he said and coblmerk is saying am I giving them all this information are they training them are they learning my business and are they going to be selling my business to everyone else what's my IP and obviously was a self-serving comment because then they were like well palatable solve these problems for you Mr. Corpor America and word pointing out people convention mom but the stock went up 9% on the day right so I didn't realize that I kind of checked it just before I came in. So I didn't think it was crazy at all. I think it was, yeah, I mean, the stylistically, you kind of go, wow, that's a crazy style. But oh my god, the points were spot on. I don't know Jason, what did you see it? I only saw the clips that, as Harry knows, it's all we watch as clips now, right? We create long-form content to create clips. That's life. I think, listen, anybody on the application side is going to be sensitive to token model costs and all of that, right? It's a theme that's real and is blown up. He's talking his game as dependency. The one that maybe he got slightly wrong, but is the most interesting, because it's still a real issue, right? Is whether, whether open-air and unthropiker really training and slurping up all of our data, right? That seems to be slightly exaggerated based on their terms of use and everything today. But, I mean, this was the same week that HubSpot had to walk back that it was going to share all your prospecting data with other customers. And I want to tie them together, okay? HubSpot's an older school B2B company. But HubSpot said a week ago, hey, we have a prospecting tool. Prospecting is really important. It's actually become much more important in the agentic world because all these hot AI GTM products are automating prospecting, right? So we're going to do what everyone's tried to do for about a decade and a half, is we're going to pull all your data. We're going to take all of Harry's verified context. All of Rory's and Jason's will pull them so that when you do outbound, you'll have a truly validated set of context. And their customers erupted that you're sharing my context. They had to roll it back within a week. And it'd be fun to talk about in general. But I think it teased into the question that I think vendors overall are going to push the limits here. They're going to push the limits on training on your data. Open AI and I thought I kind of lied about the books and they definitely lied about training on YouTube. And they're going to push the envelope here to make their LLM's better. And HubSpot did it and Salesforce is going to be tempted to do it. Every vendor that is seeing massive competition or slowing growth is going to be tempted more and more to cut corners on training, privacy and HubSpot got caught. At least they walked it back, right? But I think we should all be worried if we care about our data for real. And sometimes we over worry about this, right? We're not all anarchists or whatever. But people are going to be tempted to do more and more with our data. I think it's a very valid worry. And if you're palantir selling to the government and highly regulated industries, I think it's a great, it's a great play. It's a great play. You can't really trust these guys not to share your data. And I think the ROI comment was clean and that comment on data wasn't the right to say, it wasn't as obvious that they were doing that. But of course the other thing that Karp mentioned correctly was that Antwerpick in particular had caught on court opinions about how their AI should be used by the DOD. And he was making the point when people are giving you millions of dollars, they don't want your freaking opinions, they want your technology. And I think he did a very good job of positioning himself on that side of the table. Good for him. I always had the statement when I was younger, those that can do, those that can't teach. I always like to remind my teachers of this, which is probably why I was so unpopular at school. And then you kind of look at the ecosystem when today and you say those that can do, those that can't open a cloud business to sell access compute. We saw this week, meta-launches cloud business to sell access AI compute and craters neoclouds. Metacomput a cloud business to sell access to his AI infrastructure, either as hosted or raw GPU, rented by the hour like CoreWeave or NABIAs, market reacted well. 10% jump. Biggest single day gain in five months on this announcement. How did we think about this one? My only thought was why not earlier? Why not? If you've got the capacity, why not lease it? Didn't bother SpaceX, didn't bother Amazon 20-some odd Harry can do the history for us, didn't bother Amazon opening up AWS back in the day when it had excess e-commerce capacity. Why not, man? Why not? It's one thing if meta was still had massive cash flow, it didn't need, right? But it's been such a, I'm not sure exactly what their net cash is from their infrastructure spend. Maybe it's zero. It just makes sense, right? At this point, it just makes sense. Why not? It's been interesting. Two companies have done the same thing, which is buy a load of compute to build proprietary assets, fail to build those assets, and then decide instead to sell that compute to others. And both of them have had a very positive market reception from that. And one of the SpaceX obviously, and then the other obviously now is meta. You ask yourself, what's going on long term? What is the market actually thinking? Are they thinking, there's a goalie-lock scenario, which is we the market believes that meta in the short term has excess compute, and therefore we're glad they're selling it. And in the long term, we believe they have a wonderful use for this compute that we can't quite figure out yet. And therefore long term will be this AI-centric play and it will all be wonderful. That's one view of the world. And you have the same kind of view like that of SpaceX, which is all short term they have to rent this compute. They got an extraordinarily high price for it for which all congratulations. But does the market really believe over the medium term you're going to be an AI model provider using cursor being top-to-bottom state-of-the-art model? Right? Are we the market simply saying, both of you have failed at your long term goal, but being a cloud provider is a great business and go team. And the thing about the latter is you kind of find yourself saying, "Hmm, two more entrants into a pretty crowded market." It totally made sense for the NeoClouds to go down 10 percent because it's like all other things been equal, would you prefer to have two competitors or four? You'd prefer two. So at the margin, the entrance of SpaceX and meta into the NeoCloud business was worth exactly that 10 to 15 percent decline for Navi-S and Corvieve. The interesting question, what does it mean over the longer term? I think there's two positive scenarios. One positive scenario is they build these standalone models, they take that compute back in and they use it all. That's great. And the other positive scenario is being a hyperscale cloud provider turns out to be a great long term business. That's great too. Obviously the bad scenario is if a whole load more companies go through the same journey meta-d it, which is, "Oh, we think we need all this compute, but we don't, we can't build something useful enough for it." And then you only laugh with a few buyers of compute, open AI and a topic, and clearly use it, and a whole lot of sellers of compute. Maybe it won't be such a good business to use them now. And that's the risk. It turns out that right now the assumption in Zuckerberg said it is, "Hey, we should invest because if we can't use it, we can all sell it." And that's what you're seeing right now. Everything there is true up until the moment that compute demand isn't there at the margin. That's not happening now to be clear. It's never been tighter. But if that changes, then all these assumptions go out the window. Then the market will say, "No, I'm not glad that you bought this shit and are now selling it to other people. I wish you hadn't borrowed it all. Take the hit." But that's not where we are today. A compute demand still appears to be pretty strong. Right now it's working. But it is odd to be able to get away with having a plan A, reverse that gold plan B, and getting a 10% lift. Do you think Zucker will actually hit on the strategy? Well, Elon did a masterful stroke with it. We've discussed it before. He got a great price for it, single customer, amazing job. It's not easy today. He's actually able to pull it off. I think if phrase in the question wrong with all your respect, you're basically saying, "Oh, it's in Zuckerberg and they're bought widely talented, less youth-to-carp word, world-historical figures." Right? Which I think is true, actually. I think the real question is, is there another five gigs of demand out there that wants to be satiated? Does Unchropic have an open Dubai? If the truth is this, if a customer wants to buy something, as every salesman knows, it doesn't take a freaking genius to sell it if you haven't. But if matter has a gig of compute lying around, and Unchropic five miles down, the 20 miles up the road wants to buy that compute, I predict that sale will happen. If Unchropic or OpenA doesn't want to buy that compute that all bets are off, that's the only thing it falls down to. Listen, maybe I'm not that bright, but on this. But Zucker also just paid essentially $900 million to hire a head for WhatsApp, right, by investing $900 million into credit, right? So it seems to me, I might be wrong, not trying to trigger anybody's business. And just to provide a contact, if matter invested, $900 million into credit, an Indian company with a CEO called Kunal Shah, I believe, and Kunal has now had a WhatsApp with that $900 million investment in credit, I believe, is the contact. Probably more, right, really, because that was an $900 million investment. They just paid well over $1 billion to get someone to run. He's talking to me. I agree. So what's happening there? Well, clearly, and you can see the numbers, the core meta apps are working well. WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, this is the engine that keeps going. And so in a way, Zuck's treading water while he figures it out, right? Did he overpay for his scale and I, I, I, I, I, I, I, maybe, I mean, probably, right? But he's treading water. And listen, a lot of our founders are in this boat. The main engine's working, right? Something's working. I don't have all the answers today in the age of AI, right? My core business is still doing well. And I can either kind of hide from it, or I can go maybe too all in without having the answers, but at least I'm in the game. And, you know, did Lama really work out? Did scale work out? I don't know, but when the core is so successful, you stay in the game. And then you write out the compute. It's okay, right? So I give the same advice to founders that are doing reasonably well. Stay in the game, man. I think you're totally right, Jason. The core business is doing amazingly well. Now one minor nuance, they say that part of the reason it's doing well is the AI is improving their targeting. And I believe that, but I don't believe it justifies the 70 billion or so, the spending. But you're right. The core business is doing well, which means that there's no fundamental fatal error risk in continuing to invest in this new marketplace in AI. So if you were a meta board member, not the meta board members of any power whatsoever, because Mark controls all the votes, but I also think it's a board member. One of the big picture jobs you have, and you have very few jobs, but one of them is if the company is doing something that could have fatal error risk, that is when you at least record a no vote. And you say, I wouldn't do this. If the CEO came into me and said I'm doing so, I'd have to say you've earned a right. You've got a hundred billion dollar cash flow business. Don't understand what you think the 70 billion of investment is going to get, but you've earned the right to continue to play. So even if the wall a meaningful board at Facebook with actual votes. If I was a board member, I'd be saying, I might get it, but you've earned, adjacent's exactly right. You've earned the right to play, you've had, in worst case, we spend 70 billion in the world, just like VR. So yeah, I agree. One of my bigger hazes, people talk a lot about the fact that all the hyperscalers are spending almost all their cap eggs and even starting to tap the debt markets to invest in compute. My big aha is, this spending isn't going to stop because the supply side says stop. Facebook uncle says stop. Google isn't going to say stop. Microsoft isn't going to say stop. Really it boils down to the man's side. As long as enterprise customers, as long as that revenue growth rate, even though it's one seventh, the size of your cap eggs bill, as long as the revenue growth rate is 2x, and 3x, which is what we've seen from OpenAI and Enthropic even at today's run rate, the spend is going to come. The demand side is going to be what shuts off the spigot, not the supply side. And I think Zuckerberg is just the best example of that. He is going to keep playing, as long as there's some hints under the man's side, and it's not a fatal hour. And now he moves them, I'll be triggered. The supply of money and keeping that money machine rolling, Nvidia starts financing its own demand with compute now pay later, essentially letting providers access their GPU through revenue sharing and credit support instead of paying up front. I love it. Now that round trip revenues like totally cool and not something you go to jail for, like let's do it every single place we can find it, right? Let's just do it. And I'm not saying there's anything literally wrong with it, but go for it, right? And capture them early. I'm just shocked with how many folks have screwed this up over our investment histories. How many folks don't just go ultra-all-in on startups? And if you want to pick YC, because it's the simplest way to go all-in, just do it, right? It is such a talent magnet. But why everybody, and folks have a way to woke up to it to some extent, but every leader should be showering startups with infinite love their first 24 months. It's the best long-term investment you can get. If there's any lock-in or anything at all, shower them with love. And let's talk about what's going on here, because what Nvidia has said is, and the details matter is that for, you know, next generation NeoClouds, and one, I think, shower an AI, which is one of the examples that it two deals with recently. In early July, they actually did some kind of explanation of what they're doing. They're basically, quote, selling you the chips up front. So they are going to recognize that hardware revenue upfront. And then they're giving you, as the buyer, the NeoCloud, a backstop, that if you can't use that compute, you get kind of put back rights on it, right? So it's basically hedging the risk. It wasn't clear for me on what I read when the money actually changes hands, but what was clear is they are taking the revenue upfront. So it's as legal as church on Sunday, it's a six or six, they're separating the revenue upfront. From the guarantee over time. So it's accounting legit. But it is pretty aggressive. I mean, what it's basically saying is their push has been to diversify away from the hyperscalers, and they've achieved that. Even though they obviously, the bulk of their revenue comes from a small amount of hyperscalers, they are starting to expand the number of significant customers at the top three customers. I think don't quote me, and there's an in the data center business that's gone from the 80s to the 50s or something like that. So they're trying to make all these guys these new NeoClouds, and they're leaning in back with their effectively. But there's a lot of contingent liability they're taking on. And Jason's right, you do that. It goes back to the same sentence over and over again, as long as the law demands for compute and intelligence keeps going up into the right. These deals will look wildly smart because they'll work. And if that slows down and there's excess capacity, these deals will look horrible because you're not just not if you're in video, you'll not just be not growing quickly. You'll be debuking prior revenue. You'll be kind of taking what, you know, you'll be taking money back because your customer will have gone bust. The whole thing is a derivative bet on keeping this thing going. Not crazy, but that's what it lies on. I don't think, and in this point, when we record the say anyone's managing for downside and. You like I hate. I have to go ahead. Anyway, I think we're so far deep into a bull run like we've never seen before. A bubble or not. I don't know. You know, you're managing for downside. I think I'll check out of that board meeting. Thank you. Here's my junior associate. You're right, Joe. And I remember thinking a year ago when I realized in video I was talking about stock buybacks. I remember saying, actually, I think I said it on the part. I said, I wouldn't do that. I wouldn't do buybacks now because buybacks are a conservative. I actually think if you're going to be stupidly aggressive which are cash, this is actually a better way because it keeps the thing going. Now, I do think the time to manage for the downside is when no one is managing for the downside. So there's a little part of me that just goes, oh, we're at that stage of the cycle. And, you know, we remember that stage of the cycle in 1999, 2000. And, you know, I want to say again, history doesn't repeat. It does rhyme, but it doesn't repeat. These are different companies, different times. But it is interesting. We've reached the point where the number of good customers who can pay a cash and have a big balance sheet is tapping out so you got to find more customers to keep the growth going. And to do that, you got to subsidize them. Speaking of like, dependence on customers, customers, having the money, well, one of the biggest customers for Nvidia is anthropic. And anthropic opens talks with Samsung to build its own AI chip. That was on Thursday last week. And then today, DeepSeek, I've announced that they are starting to build their own chips. Is this the natural progression of an ever-matured industry while everyone build their own chips? How do we think about this? I last week, so I thought it was mad. And I actually saw the comments from Andre Milo, who I think was the most important and Andre Milo, who I think is just super smart. He responded to your trend, and his comment was, "There's two arguments in favor of Ruth that I didn't internalize last week when I said, I think it's crazy for open AI to be building their chips." And the two arguments were, one, the Andre's comment, which was, some version of, you got to own the compute. If you don't own the compute, you're screwed. A little like the crypto. If you don't own the keys, you don't own the crypto asset. So he was very much visibly, you got to extend the whole way down. And I just think he's been so smart about anthropic in 21. He's been so smart about the need for compute. That made me pause and think, am I wrong? And then the second thing kind of more technical is, if you're really own silicon, you can optimize the silicon for your model and probably get significantly more efficient than you might do buying a general purpose computing platform from Nvidia and adopting it to your specific model. So there are two arguments that I didn't have in my head, Lily, a week ago, in favor of this thing. But I will admit, I still find myself going, if you're at the app layer, and that's where your value is, and then you have the model, and then you have the hosting provider, and then you have the chip, just needing to do that amount of vertical integration just feels weird. I don't get it, but I could may not be understanding the big pictures might more tempered approach than last week. The only thing that makes zero sense to me is the argument that, hey, open AI, we need to build our own, our own chips, because we have very specialized needs that Nvidia has. We have very specialized needs that Nvidia can't meet. I have a little bit of experience in the semiconductor industry. If you're driving that much volume to them and you need a special version of a chip, they'll build it for you. Like, this is not true. Like, okay, prime me in the comments or whatever. I may not. My experience is a little dated. For this amount of dollars, in my ex-limited experience in the semiconductor industry, they'll do your own tape out. They'll build your own, it's so much money. 80%, 50%, whatever, the revenue. If open AI needs a different chip, and it's really that simple, you're going to get it. This is just responding to believing that the margins are so high in video to survive. We have to recapture that margin. I just think the idea that it's customized for us is just soft language, because everyone's kind of dancing around being zuck-esque aggro here, right? Everyone in either side is maintaining relationships, but it makes no sense in my experience. It just makes no sense. Kling raises 2.8 billion and an 18 billion dollar valuation is the biggest AI video business in the world. It's doing 500 million in Q1 error-wise. Clearly going to go public in Hong Kong stock exchange soon, interesting in the context of open AI shutting down Sora. I think there's two interesting things, right? One is if Kling can pull this off, why the hell couldn't Sora pull it off? Why couldn't she build the more cost? I've used all these models, right, inside of Higgsfield, right? We could talk about it. The second thing is just more interesting that I wondered. So Kling, you said 18 billion, that's what they're doing it at, at 500 million. Now Higgsfield or Harry and I are both investors. I was one of the first 10 users or customers. Higgsfield just announced they're at 500 million in revenue, actually doing 2 million a day now, just in credit card billions outside of the enterprise. Okay, so however we define AR in today's world 600, so whatever. 500, 600 million revenue. Kling is just one of the models they use, but it is important to their product and they're allegedly raising it 5 billion. So one question that asks, I sort of thought is, is there a Chinese valuation bubble potentially an AI? Like there have been in prior rounds, it's a different market, right? And that just creates different dynamics for capital raising, right? For startup foundation to valuations, AI valuations are going, and I don't know this to be true, are going to be meaningfully higher in China than US. By its very nature, it changes how the game is played. Evaluations are higher, right? Because you got one at 500 million doing AI video models, 18 billion, one a partial layer on top of it, that's catch a low positive at 5 billion, is that a 3x arbitrage? I don't know. Jason, with the greatest of respects, you've got deep seat raising at 50 billion, a gross discount compared to any Western autunders, and you've got bite dongs. It's a counter argument. Bite dongs at 500 million. I just didn't get the 18 billion. It's a question more than a bangy my fist on the table, right? The meta-learning, I just didn't know that video would be this big, this type of generation, right? You know that it's big on the consumption side, we just sit doom scrolling all day, right? All of us, right? But it wasn't clear to me when a year and a half ago, when the outputs were pretty crappy, just like a lot of the, it wasn't clear to me that the demand would be so insane, but now that people are actually beginning to build films on these platforms, the amount of video you can consume, It's the amount of video you can zoom is infinite, right? So maybe Sora should have figured it out because it was pretty good. When I would run all four together, Kling, Sora, Vio, and I forget the other one, the other big Chinese one, because you can run them all in Higgsfield, you can just run them all in videos. It's pretty, Sora, I mean, it's kind of a bug, I think everyone thought it was kind of a bummer, they shut it down, right? They just couldn't make it cost effective, you know, a slightly inferior product. Maybe that's what the market wanted, right? Kling is still pretty cool. Yes, I also think there's much less freebies on Kling, they're very quick to charge. I mean, I think that from where collections, it's so funny how quick do we forget? I can't remember how much Sora gave for free, but look. Too much, probably, right? The point is that if you're opening your highest and best, you have another use for that compute that's enterprise-centric where you can make real money, so you probably at the margin cut off for a understandable on basis if you were charging, you're right. So that's one comment. I can see if I have a finite number of GPUs and I'm falling behind on coding, there's more money in coding than consumer video, separate comment. If all I have is a consumer video business and I can validate with a charging model that allows me to make money, then that's great. I saw an estimate is what Jeff's for a kind of a 30 second video generation, it's about a buck 30 to two dollars in GPU generation costs. It's kind of a rough, very rough estimate. So provider, you can get some kind of money from it, there's a business there, different business than enterprise coding where those GPUs from OpenAI presumably ended up, but nonetheless, you're right. Kling has proven that there is a business here and people will pay for it. But you're right. I mean, 500 million to OpenAI or Anthropics Day is nothing. Not only did you lose your capacity to Rory's point, which was the biggest issue, right? It's just not. And not only was it under-automized, even if they were able to modernize it at the Klinger better level, it's a distraction. It's below the materiality line and a lot of capacities, but for Klinger, it's not a distraction. Exactly. It's a wonderful business. This is why we get to win best in startups because distractions can become very large businesses. Yeah. That might be a lot of great investments, right? That's just a distraction for us. The most commercially successful AI video product on earth is Chinese top six models as of today on OpenRudero Chinese. Do you think China is running away with the model there? First of all, the top social network sharing short video was obviously Chinese. It was TikTok and it got adopted here. They just competed in the same rough market as inster wheels and all the others. And what? So that's kind of on the pre-Genei video business. On the Genai video business, you're right. Kling is the top model, so are the side of the got better things to do. We just had that discussion. On the big market, which is obviously LLM for compute, LLM for coding, look, the US is clearly running away for in terms of frontier models. And the Chinese counter strike has been open source models. You had distilled in some part reasonable people might differ how much off OpenAI and on topic. But yeah, they are clearly numbers one to six in terms of the non-close source financial model. So that market they're running away with it. You know, just one thought I didn't fully appreciate. I just got back from two weeks in China in Hong Kong, which I didn't appreciate being told on the other side of the great firewall is that now I think Jensen was right about this. Because when you're in China, OpenAI and Claude will not, Anthropoc will not serve you. It's not just a question of being blocked. You cannot access it. Now you can get around it, right? There are ways. But they try to block VPN access. So you kind of got a side by tokens or side by things. What do you expect China is going to do the second largest economy in the world? Of course, they're going to build things that are as competitive or better than we are, because you can't even use Claude in China. For some reason, we don't like what's happening in China. We created it by not allowing. Jensen's point was you better let the GPUs go over there, right? Or they're going to just do it themselves. And you know, literally the fact that even in Hong Kong, which is much more than China, I just couldn't use chat GPT or Claude or the APIs. What do you expect? To Roy's point, probably videos, they're going to go with it because they have so much strength there already, so much domain expertise. But of course, they're going to build it all. You can't even use ours. And of course, they're going to be pretty good. Just some pretty damn good engineers in China. They've been working on the internet and software and AI for a while. And you know, this is a, if we don't like what's happening in China, I, having just gotten back from two weeks there, what do you expect when you can't access the leaders, when you simply can't access them? They're going to build something as good or better if they can and they can't. They can come close. At least we know they can come close. Jason, you're right. And it's well expressed. And the only new on side say would be Jensen was right that this is the consequences of us not allowing access to have a front, you know, kind of state of the art ships and then state of the art frontier models. Now, you can decide as a country going back to the government thing where we started that that's an acceptable price to pay because you believe the national security issues are significant enough that you want to do that. And then deliberately saying that I'm not saying they are, and I'm not frankly equipped to assess that. But you at actions have consequences. And it goes back to when we talked about that famous Jensen podcast with Dorcas where they were kind of getting talking past each other. If you believe there's a national security concern on these models and these chips and it's legitimate and real and you've made that decision soably as a government and responsibly, then you can choose to block access to these technologies. But you're right. You can expect the other side to say, okay, you can't us. We give up. We want to have this stuff. We'll build our own and there will be a commercial consequence to that. And that's what you're saying here. You're right, Jason. They didn't say, okay, we can't have cool LLM's from Silicon Valley. We'll just give up. They said, no, we'll build our own. Thank you very much. And they're done a pretty good job. And now it's interesting. How are you just now? I haven't even seen this press. I hate talking about things I haven't seen. But how we mentioned just as we came on to set here that does information out from China that they're starting to say the Chinese government is saying maybe we'll deny access to overseas users to some of the Chinese open source models, which is kind of hilarious in one respect because we're nervous about using them because we think using them is dangerous. And they're worried about letting us use them because they think letting us using them is dangerous, which is kind of just a zany thing because both of those things arguably can't be true at the same time. But that's where we are. And it would be very significant in terms of competition, the competitive environment. If Chinese open source models were removed as an alternative going forward, I think that would be obviously pretty excellent if you are a US frontier model, see prior conversation, Jason, you might be right. They might be getting something for their 5% or B, US open source model provider like reflection of poolside. This would be the best thing that could happen. We'll see. I just see more and more moving towards open GC's day, the co-founder of Dordash announced that they were moving towards open source. Yeah, I mean everyone's trying to do that because of the expense. If there wasn't a more cost of energy, we wouldn't be building chips either. It's the same thing, right? The margins, it's just that we're now graduated from the experimentation phase, right? And now we have to deal with managing costs. That's what CIOs and companies do weirdly, but reasonably well, NetNet, right? And it's just going to accelerate. But it's funny, I'm trying to build this project right now and launch it. And it's got a sufficiently complex algorithm that I can't understand it. I'm not smart enough, right? Folks can fry me in the comments. I just don't, it's an application I cannot fully understand how it works. And I'm using the mix of the models and Repplet, which it's Sonnet Plus open source. Okay? It's basically what I'm using. You can use Fable and Opus, but I'm basically using it. Can't quite get it right. So I've got, I'm passing it to Fable and Opus. And then I'm running both side by side, Claude running Fable and Opus with Repplet. And my point is after spending about 10 hours in Repplet, I couldn't solve this big Algo problem. I solved in about 20 minutes in Fable and Opus, right? So there's going to be, even for me, there's going to be this great of problems where I lost so much time and money using the N-1 step down model. I lost a day and the cycles, forget about the money, 500 bucks, whatever. I lost a day, I got stuff to do. I got portfolio companies to rescue with my grand insights. I got, I got stuff to do. And by using Fable plus Opus, and I'm not sure which combination really did, I was able to get to the heart of the problem and algorithm I could not understand. So that's why I'm just saying I don't know how this all plays out over the coming years. But as the problems we solve get bigger and more complicated, I'm not sure I want to waste a day on a mediocre answer that doesn't work. I think you're right, Jason. I actually dressy-saying that Deck-and-Gon founder did a nice post on that just now. I was good. Basically, they said, "Look, when you're trying new stuff or you don't know the problem or you can't bound the problem, you're going to use frontier models because they're smart." And they'll figure out the, you know, the unknown unknowns. The more it becomes a commoditized answer where you know the answer you want to give the more you're going to push it to open source. It was a good paper, totally man-sense. And his come was, we're at the explosions of usage now. So you're seeing a lot of, you know, frontier model usage. It may well be in two years time that, you know, you didn't need to pay that tax. But right now, if the only way to solve the problem is with the frontier model and the problems we're solving, you're going to pay for, which is why the open router, you know, all the tokens with, you know, with open source is a little misleading because all the tokens can be in one place, but all the dollars can be in the other place to your point Jason, you know, at the end of the day, you're glad you spent that thousand dollars to give me the answer and fable. I don't want to be dick and a lot of it. It was actually cheaper because I needed 10 minutes. Exactly. It wasn't just more expensive. It was cheaper. It's soft and hard cost. Instead of eight hours and 500 bucks, it was 20 minutes and actually zero because I get it in my $200 max account, right? So it's free. It's subsidized, but it's no more than any advice business. There's a reason. Sometimes you go to the nearest practitioner and then sometimes you go to the heart specialist. And we may end up blowing it. Listen, we need help. And there's there's vendors that do this, right? That are on fire. But we're going to need help making sure that when we use cheaper models that we're actually worth it. And I think even in I'm bored of talking about the subject, but you brought up Decagon, if you really go deep on a lot of the data today and a lot of folks doing next generation AICX, there is some plateauing. And the reason there is some plateauing is this some of this pressure to have reasonable costs per resolution. We're kind of standardizing this industry around like 50 cents per resolution in CX, right? That's sort of the cost, right? It's gone down from a dollar to So assuming you're not just burning venture dollars, if you can charge 50 cents for a resolution, what do your LM costs have to be? 25 cents? Maybe less, right? So everyone going to, I didn't read the DeGon point, but I'm sure they're doing it. So they're all rushing to say, okay, I gotta push this, right? And Finn just got bought for $3.6 billion, right? I gotta push the open source thing. I've seen a lot of data, I've seen a lot of plateauing, and that may push people back to a limited more high end models so that you can get to the next level, so that you can get to 95% true resolution of complex problems, instead of no matter what the internet says, 40% resolution of sort of not that hard problems to solve, right? So we'll see, we'll see how, whether this open source stuff, over the next six, now that we've all internalized it, we may not get all the benefits out of it that everyone thinks we are. - Two comments are not the one is yes, but I think the point of DeGon City was making is, it's not just a pricing, it's also a latency, it's a response time. There's a bunch of reasons, but I think the meta points is this, they're gonna make on the CX space. Everything said is correct. What I love about it is, if you think about the calcium concept, this is a market that's the other side, the positive side of the chasm, because implicit in everything you said, Jason, was a recognition that there is an ROI there on the shipworks. One of these I like the spaces, a lot of these other apps companies are wrestling with how do I price for outcome? This market has already gotten to the point where the customer, it's not important to vendor, that the customer says, "I get it, I can increase my resolution rate from 30% to 65, I get it, I spend three bucks in email to answer it a query, so a buck or even 50 cents on customer support is well worth it." In other words, it's moving from, I mean, it's moving from the experimental side. There's a lot of talk about 95% whatever bullshit, AI, ROI is not there. This is a category where everyone can articulate the 30% where it is there, and then to your point, they can go, "Ooh, the next 10% is gonna cost more." That's a high class problem. Maybe what you're saying is you go from 30% resolution to 65% resolution at a buck a pop, and maybe from 65 to 75, it's two bucks a pop, you'll still happily pay it if you're the customer. - Probably, it's just gonna be another stage in the evolution of AI, right? Where you can either say, "Listen, I got 20 cents to that 50 cents to provide the best resolution I can," right? And that's a great answer today, but as your competition gets smarter about this and blows by you, it's gonna create an amount of competitive pressure that it'll just be interesting 'cause it will all have to get much better at this stuff. - Does it ultimately provide the value Microsoft launches $2.5 billion and 6,000 people to embed engineers inside enterprise clients, targeting the MIT finding that 95% of enterprise AI pilots deliver no measurable P&L impact or the positive finding that was, Amazon made the same move two days earlier. Is this a continuation of the shift from a model to a services ecosystem? - I think it's gonna fail. - Ooh, good take. - I'll tell you why, 'cause we have a lot of FDs at SaaS, 'cause we have so many agents, right? We have the best FD, it's Salesforce, the best FD at all these folks, not the best, but we have some of the best at all these companies. And they're F and great, literally, the FDs we work with at these leaders, okay? Are better than anyone have ever worked at and customer successors support my entire career with maybe one or two exceptions. They are so good, the best FDs at this company, okay? And then one leader, not Salesforce, not a leader, RFD went on paternity leave for three months, and the new one told us they could fix our bug for three months until the first guy got back. This was a leader. So my point is, I think this is gonna fail because I don't think there is enough talent to do what we want to do in the enterprise. The idea makes sense to, on a spreadsheet it makes sense, Sado is smarter than me, but today, my experience is it's going to fail with all the companies we're with 'cause it's not enough depth to do it. Literally, this is a public company said, you're gonna have to wait three weeks to fix a fact that your AI is still talking about SASTRA 2026, which already happened, it happened in May. It's now July. We are gonna have to wait until August to fix that bug until our better FD comes back from paternity leave. Think about, this is not some of those hired last week, how the hell are you gonna scale this? Wait three months to fix the fact that you're talking about an event that already occurred 60 days ago? That's an F, isn't it? I'm gonna throw 10,000 people that were terrible at customer success into solving massive enterprise problems. Good luck with that one. I disagree. I think it will work in a limited but interesting sense. I mean, stepping back, I don't buy for the record that 95% MIT's, there was a lot of. You don't buy the story, I literally has told this public company leader where we were told it would take three months. Only buy that story, I'm saying that 95%. I'm saying, I don't think 95% of these things fail, but I do buy your story, Jason, which is, even a smart company like you, and you're way more technically adept than 90% of corporate America needs assistance to make the shit work. And it's obviously very bad that they couldn't answer that in three weeks, but the solution is not, don't get that support. The solution is, someone has to build a business whereby they have shock-hawar two people capable of answering your questions. And the big, zool-out question, 'cause they actually didn't see this until I thought about it, but now clear on it, is who's gonna meet that need? If corporate America's gonna adopt all this stuff, and they're who they are, they're an oil and gas company, they're a banking company, and then on the other side of the table, you have a traffic and open AI, who are product companies to their core. You're gonna need something in the middle who are services companies to help them adopt. And what's interesting that's happening to Microsoft, and oh my God, every technology company either goes bust, or lives long enough to become next generations IBM. IBM was the enabler to the PC and to some extent a cloud of looks, helping corporate America, when you don't have an amazing product yourself, but you do have large enterprise trusted relations. What you do is you sell to those relations, the ability to adopt new technologies from other people. And to some extent, that's what IBM's been doing for the last 20, 30 years. IBM Global Services has been all about, we don't build e-commerce, we don't build any of these cool things, but we'll help you adopt. - Yeah, and we'll launch your product in 2030, but that doesn't work today. - Jason, to be clear, I'm not saying IBM is amazing, and I'm not saying Microsoft would be amazing at this. I'm saying that, and there's a harsh comment from Microsoft who out of the positive one, they used to be the company with the new technology, and other people built consulting services to help adopt Microsoft 30 years ago. Now, OpenAI and Traffic are the companies with the new incredible product, and Microsoft is the more mature company with the enterprise relationships who is going to build a large services business as just like HP did, just like IBM did. If you went back and read those press releases from 20 years ago, you know, HP, your trusted partner in Global Services, IBM, same thing, it would read exactly like this. And to some reason, Mr. Corporate America, you need to adopt this new technology. Those dudes in Silicon Valley are pretty scary. You've never met them before. They talk about crazy shit like the end of the world. We have been selling stuff to you for 20 years. You trust us, we trust you. We're gonna make this work. And to your point, Jason, you're right. They might make it work great, but it will be better than the enterprise trying to do it on its own. So somebody I think Microsoft will build a huge services business here if they want to, which also speaks to, it won't be nearly as profitable as selling operating systems. - I actually think they're both right, stepping back from it. I think I, because literally we work with the top one or two or three FDs, it's so many vendors. And I can tell you the depth, even at some of the best companies, the depth is not there. It does not go, and these are not old companies. There is no depth to the FD chart. So I know that this is gonna fail, but Rory's also right. It is better than doing it yourself. And so just like a lot of things, how this plays out when it doesn't really work, because the FDs have no idea how to actually develop this business process change, rather than run the same goddamn Salesforce deployment playbook, it's gonna lead to a lot of tiers, but it doesn't mean it's still not better than trying yourself, which is often hopeless, right? But I am right that the depth today just doesn't exist. So a lot of board members and folks not closer are gonna say, let's go do this. A lot of VCs are trying to invest in an AI enabling old businesses, right? And I believe if you could attract the talent, this would be great. I just don't, there's not a couple hundred thousand people that want these jobs that are off the charts smart. They just, you're lucky. In some ways, we're back to the early days of B2B software where you'd have a couple folks that kind of understood how it all works. And no one else could solve the problems on your tool. We're back that way with a lot of these agentech products, I think. Which what it means, by the way, is for the model companies, the rate of adoption of their technology is to some extent a little bit outside their control, which is why they are doing these services business. The biggest problem when I'm picking an X on a bank of America, rolling out GNI, is not the ability to buy for my own topic. It's the ability to change management and application building in the enterprise. That's going to be solved by large trusted partners who deliver the services and the expertise. And it's going to, for the record, I think the interesting point on this, starting back to demand is, if Jason is right and the quality isn't there, that means the adoption cycle will be longer. And the biggest single question on all of this is what's the rate of the fusion of this technology? For the last three years, it's been way faster than the diffusion of any other technology in history, the rate at which OpenAI and Shropick got to four and 12 billion respectively, on the way around side, 12 and 4 billion respectively in gap revenue, never before seen. If the next 10X takes three times longer because corporate America can't adopt, that's going to have consequences. And I think it's the big question, how quickly can that spend from a Shropick go from four and a half billion to 40 billion to 80 billion? I don't know how much a limb pack of top line, but I definitely think you're right and right. It's just this type of rollout's going to be slower than folks hope, right? There's just not enough talent to do it. Whether that really stops and Thropick and the aggregate is a different, it's a different question, right? - It doesn't stop, slow it down. You, it's not a stop, it's a slow down. You like this and it's a slow down. It's a question of how fast? - I'll tell you what, just as an aside, one thing I learned that was really interesting, it's at our saster AI annual this year, we had a CPO panel, we had the CPO of Harvey there, who came from Muppling. You guys might know this, but I learned something, right? Every deployment they do at Harvey has an FDE and a lawyer. Every single deployment has a lawyer, right? And so to the extent Harvey can bring in, and I'm sure they do, I want to go deeper on this. To the extent they can bring in consulting firms and Microsoft's to deploy them and maintain that, that'll work if they're like a three-way team. But it's just interesting. If you have a lawyer and a very experienced technical resource deploying Harvey, which has a high price point, right? You can afford it. That might be what you need to have a successful deployment there. Rolling this out to generic B tier or C tier people today may not just be successful, but that clearly works. It's cap than obvious, but I don't think most of the companies we work with deploy a deep subject matter expert and an FD at the same time together as a team. It's a good point and it makes sense because if you think about it, when all you're buying from the vendor is a database, all you need is a database expert. But when you're buying from the vendor, intelligent answers about your own business. And if you're going back to, if you're running Excel, you better be damn sure that those answers are grounded in oil and gas, and you might actually it's interesting. Probably everyone will be some combo of tech expert and domain expert. And that's why these services companies will be tricky to build your point. Yeah, they go in, they learn about how your entire law firms business process works and they map it against Harvey, right? That'd be great if these services companies can do it. I just, I'm skeppy, but maybe you're naturally skeppy. Okay, we're going out on a weird one. Ashton Kutcher, one of the most successful investors of the last years in terms of SPVs in open AI and Thropic, sound ventures, obviously his firm announces he's leaving his own VC firm and he's going to start a new VC firm with Morgan Balla, previously at Andreessen and an FX. And now starting her firm with Ashton, it's a notable move in the world of untry gas, new firm. One of the biggest AI in the last few years, Jason, what did you think? You know the gossip, I need to know what really happened. I mean, on its surface, it's just crazy to leave your own firm, right? Like this, it's one thing, it's one thing if you're managed out, right? Or something like that. That can't be the case here, right? I mean, this is the guy from that 70s show. I mean, we need them in the fund, right? Maybe it was managed out that I find it unbelievable, right? Unbelievable, right? To leave it behind like this? It's interesting, right? It's like in a way, it kind of reminded me of Jack Altman raising a massive amount for a solo GP fund and joining benchmark. Like these are things that make sense today, but just a couple of, almost even when we started this podcast, they wouldn't even make sense. Like what? Jack, why? And I love Jack, but why would you raise half billion dollars and have LPs, dying to fund you and go join benchmark, right? Because it makes sense in 2026. And Jason Sounder's raised a lot of money. Yeah, billion dollars. They're in some good names, right? I'm being facetious. No, no, I mean, yes, they're in some excellent, and that, you know, frankly, we co-invested with them in some deals they've been wonderful to deal with. I actually think it's simpler than this. I don't think there's a, and I could be wrong, and I'm usually a cynic, in venture. But I actually don't think there's a deep dark story here of bad, of course. I don't think any of that applies. I think this guy is so successful. Why do venture firms hang together and paper over the story? Because the asset is the firm and the name, and even if you hate each other, you want to manage the process well so you can keep the thing going, because the firm has a brand and a reference. And therefore, you know, I know many situations where he effectively partners look at you early and say, I'm mad at you, you're mad at me, but we're going to hold this thing together. None of that applies here. He's asking Coachner. He doesn't need, I mean, I knew who asked him Coach over before I knew Sound Ventures. If he wants to do something else, it's just clean up to say, now I'm asking Coach, you're doing this. I'm doing, I think it's very much C, pre C, deep tech. It's a new thing. I mean, I think very few people are in the position whereby the name is such that they don't have to worry about the firm brand. They just say, I'm a famous person who's for the record. I'm sure most people when you start an investing would have had a little sneer. And he's killed it. I've been, I'm a famous person who's now been a brilliant investor and now a famous person doing deep tech seed. So I actually get the impression from the vibe from the folks I've talked in, out of the firm that there's much less of this angst than you think and just two people wanting to do different things. Because look, a lot of the open AI and then topics, brilliant investments were late stage, obviously multi-billion dollar pre-money. Is it just very different than deep tech? So I think the beauty about being a famous rich person in America is you can pretty much do whatever you want. And if you're TV famous and movie famous, you don't have to worry about the firm's brand name. So there's a few investors where I know the name of the investor and it took me months later before I figured out the name of the firm. This is one of the few investors on the planet where it's the investor name. I mean, to this day, if you said to a bunch of people who's on your cap table and Thane was an investor, they'd probably say, I should cut you some of my cap table. So the name doesn't matter. Yeah, but there's only like six brands in venture anyway. That's not exaggerate how many brands there are. And it's not one. And I should cut you more famous than all of us. So move on. I'm well to bet there were more. If you check Google Trends, he gets more searches than Sequoia without even blinking. There's 330 million people have some sense of who he is and maybe 3 million knows the voice. I'm with you. Listen, we can move on. I just, even for me, and I'm a solo GP who would not deal with any of this crap today, if I had a CFO that was working, if I had investor relations working, if I could stand my partner, if I liked my partners, if I liked coming to work, I would stick, even if I had to get some of them out, I would stick with my entity. If I liked all the stuff around it, it's just not that you can't rebuild everything, right? It's not that there's no equi, I don't think there's any equity in the brand. But if the engine is working, I'd rather just stay. I'd rather just stay. Boys, you can choose one more topic. What topic should we discuss? Well, look, I think you hit a lot of good stuff. The one that maybe we've discussed before, but I still think is a topic that resonates, right? Is the 11 lab. I added this one, the 11 lab secondary at 22 billion, right? I don't think it's a high valuation. Maybe that's interesting, but I think the growth in today's world, it's consistent with other rounds, right? I don't think the price is actually that interesting. I do think, even though it's not a new topic, the one I said is interesting. It's like, as an employee today, why would you join something that you don't believe will have secondary options? I really think this is a big issue. One issue is why would I join you rather than entropic, right? Where I can make so much money to open it. But there's plenty of reasons to not join it and then throw up an open day. We can talk about that, right? There are pretty big companies. Your role is going to be very narrow, right? It may not be the job you want. 11 labs probably is more agile than entropic. Oh, great. Right? Your job is probably a little bit more interesting and some, for some folks. But Jesus, if I was a hyper-talented employee, I would not want to go summer without liquidity. It just doesn't seem worth it today. It's just questions. You have to create this as founders. What do you do if you're close to this level? Because the liquidity is thin. There's always so many 11 labs that can pull off a tender offer of 22 billion, right? They're there. But if you're not quite at that level, they go away. The EC clay, I know it's much smaller. It's five billion, but they did a tender offer at five. Yeah, that's the minimum. Like, there's some line where you can pull it off, but maybe, and I'm not saying this literally with clay, but sometimes with something like clay, even next year, you might not be able to pull it off, right? What if it's a little bit soft, right? There's only a handful of companies that can always pull it off like clockwork, right? There's only so many data brixes and open AIs. But why would I join anything sub-clay? Because even if the nominal valuation is three instead of five or two, if there's no regular liquidity program, why would I join it? Why would I join the startup? Life's too short, man. No, I disagree because it's incorrect framing, Jason. I don't, because it's the point is, if you join something that's already doing tender offers, then you will get an equity grant reflective of the fact that we're already doing tender offers so it will be slower. If you join something that's never does a tender offer ever, then you then you lost. The whole trick for employees, just like it is for VCs, is to join something that isn't doing a tender offer today, get a healthy grant and join a company that would in a year or two, when you've invested 50, 60% of your things, starts doing tender offers. So it's a slight nuance. You said, don't join anything that isn't doing a tender offer. I'm just, but I just misspoke. I meant to make the exact point you're making. Why would you join anything that you don't have high certainty? It's not just going to be unicorn because it's not good enough that they're going to have tender offers, right? In the next 24 months. Jason, how can you know for people listening? How can you know if something's going to happen? I mean, two years is hard, but I think in the end, look, it doesn't actually change things, all that much. It's the same as whenever you join a startup, you got to join startups that have the potential for big upside. 10, 20 years ago, it would be got public now that window takes 12 years in some cases. So you got to have something else and tender offers on the proxy for public. Anyone who joins a startup does it for two reasons. And I think you have to start with mission. Second one definitely is chance of a payday. I tell everyone, it's funny. I said it's them. I tell everyone that I operate on the operational side, hey, you're a single shot VC. You got to pick only one deal and get it right. And I always say to them, look, when you come to choose a couple of companies, and if you want any random VC input, feel free to ring me and maybe it can give you perspective. Very few people do. It's just funny that way, right? I think actually one of the things I often look at is how operators make decisions. And there's a lot of things that get fed into it. And maybe they're perfectly good. Other reasons you like the people you're working with, the market, it has a mission. But from a pure stockpicking perspective, Jason is right. The mission, the job at hand is to pick a company that within one to three years will be a unicorn, will be tender worthy. And you make out like a bandit. It's a hard thing to do. We get 20 shots. I mean, I feel guilty almost. We get 20 shots and goal and they get one. Well, if you're leaving every year, you might get 20 depending. That's true. I'm not quite sure. It's just there's sequential employees. There's sequential venture capitalists, right? They're just sequential rather than parallel down those vesting schedules. Fuck yeah. Now that they're now that there aren't even vesting schedules at open end and through up those issues have been solved, right? A lot of startups don't have vesting schedules for top employees, right? It doesn't mean you vest into all your stock, right? Sorry, they don't have cliffs. The investment code, you don't have a cliff, right? That problem has been solved by eliminating cliffs, right? Boys, this has been fantastic. I've so enjoyed this. It's so nice to be back in the studio. I was not enjoying the holiday setup. I like to be like in the studio for this, but you've been awesome. So thank you so much for joining me. I'm worried we've got to let Jason go back and deliver insight to his portfolio. Yeah, they need that profound. profound insights on, you know, that they can't get on the axe. Have you looked at open source? Have you thought about managing your token spend a little bit better? Can we increase sales? I've launched and turned lies and told them I see, I'm actually not here to give you insights. I'm simply here. Don't know if we're driving the thing off the cliff, I scream stop. 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