#208: Q1 Trends Briefing - Model Release Frenzy, AI Lobbying, Anthropic v. U.S. Government, and the Rise of OpenClaw
71m 19s
This special episode of the Artificial Intelligence Show reviews the top 10 AI trends from Q1 2026. The hosts highlight an unprecedented pace of frontier model releases from companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, making capabilities assessment vital. They discuss the surge of AI as a political focal point, marked by hundreds of millions in lobbying for deregulation and counter-proposals for regulatory pauses. A central ongoing narrative is the conflict between Anthropic and the U.S. government, where Anthropic refused unrestricted military use of its Claude models, was designated a supply chain risk, and subsequently won a preliminary injunction against the designation. The episode concludes by noting the critical need for organizations to develop internal evaluation frameworks to navigate the fast-evolving model landscape and leverage AI effectively.
The organizations that are really struggling here often lack CEOs who have presented a clear vision for the future of work in their organization and what is required and expected of their employees in that future of work. Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Show, the podcast that helps your business grow smarter by making AI approachable and actionable. My name is Paul Rateser, I'm the founder and CEO of SmarterX and Marketing AI Institute and I'm your host. Each week I'm joined by my co-host and SmarterX Chief Content Officer, Mike Kaput. As we break down all the AI news that matters and give you insights and perspectives that you can use to advance your company and your career. Join us as we accelerate AI literacy for all. Welcome to episode 208 of the Artificial Intelligence Show, I'm your host Paul Rateser, I'm with my co-host Mike Kaput. We have a special edition of the weekly podcast episode this week. I am on vacation, so when you are listening to this I will be out of the office and spending some time with my family. Rather than skipping a week we decided let's do a Q1 trends review, so let's take a look back at the, I don't know how many episodes I guess about 12 episodes Mike right now that we did in Q1 12 of these weeklies and across those 12 weeklies. You know we cover three main topics each week and then probably seven to 10 rapid fire items. So we're talking about what like 150 ish topics Mike's that's easy. Yeah, so yeah we've covered 150 different clips and by the way like the Arbene segments are all clipped to YouTube's if ever go to like our YouTube channel you can actually go and drill into specific segments. Mike curated the 150 or so topics that we have had in Q1 of 2026 and broke it down into 10 key trends that we're going to recap on this episode. So again rather than having nothing this week while I was away we figured let's record this so we are recording on Tuesday March 31st this will be dropping on. It is my be April seven Tuesday April seven there you go and then we will be back with our regular weekly episode on April 14th so I will be back for my trip and we will be back in recording our regular weekly episode that week so. Yeah so that's what we're doing today so something special we normally do these trends briefings as part of our AI Academy. So we're going to keep doing that but we're thinking there might be like an evolution to where the master members actually get to like participate and join these live we tried that with episode 200 of our podcast and we invited master members to attend live and ask questions so we're kind of working through the evolution but I'm thinking that might be a cool direction to go with these where we record these quarterly trend briefings actually for the the podcast but then we invite our master members to join us in a live audience when we do those so more more news to come on that before right now. We thought let's just get this out there these quarterly trends are a great way for us to take a look back kind of a retrospective of what's happened over the previous three months and it is a lot that's Mike in a test having in the last two or 36 hours pulled this all together. But yeah there's just a ton to talk about so we're going to go through just these 10 items I'm going to try not to like over narrate these I think we're just going to kind of get the information to you give you some context and if you're new to the podcast it's a great way to just sort of catch up what's been going on the last three months. Okay this episode is brought to us by AI Academy by SmartRx which helps individuals and business businesses accelerate their AI literacy and transformation through personalized learning journeys and an AI powered learning platform. New educational content is added weekly so you always stay up to date with the latest AI trends and technologies. The AI for department collection features five courses and course series and certificates that are designed to jump start AI understanding and adoption so our master members have access to all these on demand right now you can also buy them individually as core series. We have AI for marketing sales customer success HR finance and Mike if I'm not mistaken you wrapped up or are wrapping up operations this we are wrapping it up this week. Alright so operations coming soon so we have five already on demand the sixth is coming very soon so these series are an ideal launch pad for organizations that want to level up their teams and accelerate adoption and impact as I mentioned individual and business account plans are available now or you can buy single courses and series for one time fees visit academy dot smarter X dot AI to learn more okay Mike 10 trends from Q1 2000 and 26 this is going to be a lot of things. I can tell ready like these are going to feel like some of this stuff happened a year ago it didn't this all happened the last three months. Yeah so Paul the way we typically do this is we're kind of going to count down right from 10 so not to say that the earlier ones are a little least important but they are in the terms of this list so we're trying to kind of stack ranked these little bit. So first up I'm going to kind of tee up each trend tell us a little bit about it tied together a few things have happened across episodes that we've covered and then we're going to talk about it so first up number 10 the number 10 spot counting down from 10 the model release friends so q1226 might be in the running for one and more compressed periods of frontier model releases so far in AI the title state of the art changed hands multiple times within weeks and basically every major lab shipped something pretty significant in the last few months so a huge one is that the topic release clawed opus 4.6 in February and drop its own reports and benchmarks revealed that it has saturated most automated evaluations to the point where the company plans to discontinue them opus 4.6 was followed week later by clawed sonnet 4.6 which approached opus class capabilities keep in mind sonnet is the smaller less powerful model and took the lead on the GDP Val double a benchmark open AI countered with a couple of releases including GPT 5.3 codex this is a coding focus model that log 500,000 app downloads in its first week in March GPT 5.4 arrived with pro and thinking versions out performing human professionals economic benchmarks and setting a new record on the frontier math benchmark open AI also shipped many and nano variants of 4.5.4 later in the quarter to mention Google release Gemini 3 deep thing which hit state of the art on the arc age I to benchmark as well as several others that was followed quickly by Gemini 3.1 pro also X AI dropped GROC 4.2 in the same window and Paul I mean just reading through the data as I'm sure you know there's probably a couple other you know non U.S models as well in terms of deep sea can some open source things my gosh like it really doesn't it's not only not slowing down it might be speeding up. It's your seems like and we alluded to it on episode 207 that there's we think there's a couple more models coming very soon that would not surprise me at all if we don't have a similar trajectory of launches in q2. You know I think about this randomly yesterday like I think back you know maybe last year maybe two years ago I was saying like I really wish that like chat should be team Gemini would just do the model picking for you which they've done they like the auto or like like a default to whatever. But I have found that the more especially some of the use cases we've shared on episodes lately of our own internal use cases which model it is is becoming extremely important and I actually like the ability to choose the models and as I've alluded to when I'm doing like a high value strategic project or an app building project that you know with no code that I'm working on I will do it in like five or six different models I'll test these models and it just goes to I don't think we have this as a topic Mike so I'll throw out there. That other thing it's like really pushing for me is something we've been talking a lot about internally which is the idea of having your own evals to evaluate these models and so what I mean by that is you know we talk about these evals that they have in the industry that's testing like the IQ of the models and testing them across like math and biology in these other areas. What you need to be thinking about as an individual as a business leader more broadly as an organization is like what are the evals you can put in place that allow you to know which of these models is best for your use case and when you should care that another one launches so now in a lot of enterprises you're going to be just stuck to we're just given co pilot we don't even even know what the underlying model is most people don't know to ask what the underlying model is we're just going to use co pilot but if you're in a like an AI native company like ours. We can use anything like Mike and I you choose Gemini Claude and chat GBT probably daily Mike I would say this point yeah and so the you know this challenge of which model is right for which use case becomes harder and harder and so even you know these custom evals is something we're going to probably talk a lot more about in q2 as I mentioned you know me Mike and Taylor in particular at smart X been working on some ideas around this of how to help organizations build these evals so they're super understandable to it in like I'm going to say. I'm just going to talk about how to make it more understandable to it in like a marketer a salesperson a CS person an ops person so we're going to do a lot more round that and as we talk about the how fast these models are coming out. I think it's going to become more and more important to be able to quickly assess should I care about this model does it change any my standard workflows is it better than what I was using before.
for my high value use cases. Those are really important questions to be able to answer, and most people don't have a system yet to do that. Yeah, and I've heard anecdotally from multiple people and read about others where it's so interesting to see people get exposed to some of the newer models. I mean, there's people that don't follow this stuff as closely as we all do who are freaking out in a good way online or have texted me out of blue saying, wait a second, Claude, can do what? Because they haven't been exposed as much to different models. But if you find yourself in that camp where you haven't taken the most recent models for a spin outside of whatever is your daily driver, weekly driver, I'd highly recommend doing it. You might be really, really surprised. Yeah, well, I think in some of the upcoming trends here, we'll touch more on this. But if you were just using like chat GPT-5.2 or like, good models and you were unaware for three months that Claude Opus 4.6 existed or like, sonnet form, and you had no idea, you've like missed this leap forward in capabilities that we're seeing every day because you just weren't falling along with these models. And sometimes it's just like incremental and it's not going to make a big difference in your life. But sometimes we go through these three month periods where it's just like, wow, model capabilities are dramatically better. All right, so number nine in terms of our quarterly trends, again, remember counting down from 10 big AI is getting big into lobbying. So AI has been a first tier political issue in Q1 no doubt and for a little bit before that. But this story that's kind of started to capture the shift as we start to get more into US midterms is the sheer scale of money now flowing into AI-focused political operations. So there are actually three pro AI political groups that are collectively spending nearly $300 million on US midterm ads, all of them pushing deregulation and in acceleration agenda. The largest new entrant here is innovation council action, which has the blessing of David Sacks, the White House and plans to spend over $100 million. In the upcoming cycle, this group is led by a former White House deputy chief of staff under Trump and has compiled a scorecard assessing how supportive lawmakers are of Trump's AI agenda to determine who they fund or oppose. Now separately leading the future is something we actually talked about in many episodes, which has raised $50 million from donors, including open AI president Greg Brockman, panel and director, co-founder Joe Launstale and Mark Andreessen. Brockman alone has contributed $50 million to this super PAC plus $25 million to a Trump super PAC, making him one of the largest individual donors to the current administration. And Meta has actually launched its own pro AI super PAC effort, expected to spend around $65 million on state level races. Now on the other side of this, we actually talked about this on 207. Senator Bernie Sanders and representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced a AI data center more Torriomac to pause all new data center construction nationwide until Congress passes federal AI legislation with protection for workers, consumers and the environment. So Paul, we are seeing on the further left some opposition to AI acceleration mounting, whether or not that bill actually passes is actually quite unlikely. But my gosh, the amount of money being marshaled for pro AI efforts appears to already be significant and I expect we'll hear a few more announcements as we get to midterms. It's going to become a major issue in the midterms. I'm increasingly convinced of that. The interesting part though, as I've said numerous times on the podcast is, and again, if you're new to the podcast, Mike and I do are very, very best to stay absolutely politically neutral here. It is literally just like, these are the facts, this is what's happening on each side. And so in that spirit, I'm not so convinced whether AI is a writer or a left leaning issue at this point. I think there's increasing murmurs that people in the Republican side are actually getting kind of annoyed with David Sacks, like ultra pro AI stance, because here's a reality. Jobs and energy affect everybody regardless of who you vote for. So if you start losing tens of thousands or more jobs this year, it doesn't matter how you vote, you are not going to be a fan of AI. So if the Republican party is cast as the AI accelerationist party at all costs, and one of those costs is jobs of your family and your friends or you, then your political, you can be swayed politically at a totally different direction. And so I feel like the Democrats at the moment are leaning very heavily into the data center side. I think we're going to push on the job side, but I could totally see the Republicans actually finding messaging to also, especially on the job side, you can't be anti-job. It's like that no one is winning an election anti-jobs. So I don't know. It's just going to be really intriguing. And that's why I'm not even convinced that some of these funds are just for Republicans, like these, the ones we're talking about. I think they're truly going to fund whoever is like in pushing for their side. Yeah, it's going to be really interesting. We haven't seen much on the Superpec side for the Democrats when it comes to the anti-AI, because I don't think they're anti-AI. It's not really pro-antiates. What do we consider responsible AI? I think it's maybe where the distinction needs to be found. And what they're trying to decide through polling is where is the line we have to draw to where we start to gain or lose votes on these issues. And I think that's what's going to be super intriguing in the coming months is how they start to message this. And I feel like both sides are going to be very fluid in their messaging until they figure out what's actually going to move the need along votes. All right. Number eight, also quite focused on politics in AI is anthropic versus the US government. So this is basically the kind of the biggest ongoing or continuing story of Q1 so far, which began in February when Secretary of War P. Hegseth issued an ultimatum demanding anthropic grant the Pentagon full unrestricted access to its clawed models, which they were already using, for every lawful purpose. Now anthropic kind of decided to draw a line in the sand and refuse to remove its red lines against things like using clawed for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons. After some back and forth with the Department of War, Hegseth actually designated anthropic a supply chain risk. And as we've reported on multiple episodes that same night, open AI announced that it had gone behind the back of everyone else and signed an agreement with the Pentagon. So in March, things continued and they escalated the Pentagon formalized the supply chain risk designation, making anthropic the first American company to receive this. Several agencies, including Treasury State and HHS, began ending their use of anthropic products, ironically clawed continued powering, palantir maven smart system, which reportedly identified over a thousand targets in 24 hours recently during operations in Iran. Anthropic filed two federal lawsuits to block all of this designation, warning that hundreds of millions and expected 2026 revenue was at risk. Microsoft filed an aggressive amicus brief in support of anthropic, 37 AI researchers, 22 former military and intelligence leaders also filed their own supporting briefs. And that brought us up to this past week when federal judge Rita Lynn issued a preliminary injunction blocking the designation she wrote that nothing in the governing statute supports the Orwellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary and saboteur of the US for expressing disagreement with the government. Pentagon CTO and Miel Michael called this ruling a disgrace government has seven days to appeal from one that was released. So Paul, we kind of got up to speed on this on episode 207. As of right now, this is still kind of an open question as to whether or not they will actually find a deal here. It sounds like we've talked about multiple times people are trying to find an off-rand trying to strike some type of deal despite the rhetoric and despite ongoing military operations using Claude. The story definitely has had some staying power on the podcast. I feel like we're on three or four straight episodes. We're at least given some updates. Yeah, I don't know what else to add at this point. I do, you know, we're actually waiting the appeal from the government, which I think is just going to continuously delay things and give people time to negotiate something. There hasn't been too many leaks the last, I don't know, five to seven days about back channel negotiations and things like that, which actually probably tells me that they're happening. I think they're just trying to get this done and get it over with. I hope the Department of War has other bigger things. Now the interesting thing, like, is there's this issue with Anthropic. It's sort of like a spin off of this story, I guess, is they left the, what was the 207 episode, 207 we talked about, they left all this upcoming model information, all this stuff online. And then as of today on March 31, first, there's some, I've still been trying to verify exactly what's going on, but it looks like the Claude code base was published.
Some it almost like somebody copied and pasted it internally and put it online So I don't know I mean there's these there's just like There's this big story obviously related to the Department of War and what's going on there But there's these spin-offs around like the security of this stuff and Inthropic is just constantly in the news and and then you know in the process of all this they are just shipping product like nobody I've ever seen like yeah, I saw a stat I was like You know, I just said that something like 50 some releases in like the first quarter of a year they've pushed out So anthropic is just an infinitely fascinating company we talked on episode 207 about kind of this battle between them and open AI and Battle between them and the government. It's it's just like I don't know I was somebody comment on my LinkedIn post this morning And I've been thinking about this like somebody's got to turn this into like a Netflix series like it is go back to like 2014 with the acquisition of deep mind like started that moment where genius makers starts basically yeah And like everything that has happened across these lab it is wild You know it strikes me with the Pentagon stuff with even the security issues and the leaks It just feels like in some ways even with the features being shipped which are great things are almost moving too fast to like put the Genie back in the bottle in terms of like things can get really out of control really quick And it seems like that's probably a function of how fast things are moving. Yeah, I think we'll touch on this one And what it looks like number six. Maybe we've got the enterprise a adoption But honestly like I'm kind of coming around to the idea that the human friction is gonna end up being the saving grace of all this like Meaning the models are getting so good so fast. We got open-cloud. We're gonna talk about we all this stuff and Yet to do anything in an enterprise is so damn slow and that might actually be the thing that like Gives us time to figure this all out Because of every organization was able to move as fast as these Frontier labs are moving and what these the models are enabling Then we would absolutely be completely unprepared and have no chance of the society But the fact that most companies still have no clue what they're doing with AI and can't even get like Hopilot approved Or distributed once they have it approved like that it might actually be a good thing I don't know. Let's kind of like do I'm starting to think about it. It's still for lining. Yeah Well first before we talk about that and we will We got to talk about number seven, which is the polar opposite of this which is the rise of open claw Which is an open source AI agent framework that allows autonomous agents to interact with each other Execute complex tasks without human oversight and even form communities. So this burst into public consciousness Earlier in the year and then also was kind of compounded by this release of this social network called Malt book which was built on open claw and that went viral and what that had was a social network for Expressly for AI agents it had millions of Open claw agents creating their own communities their own posts their own comments and They were all operating autonomously and engaging with one another and you know Andre Carpoth He actually called what was happening on a book genuinely the most incredible sci-fi take off adjacent thing I've ever seen Ethan Mollick, you know I mentioned it actually you know even though it might be a little over hyped how much these agents were actually forming their own kind of worlds It did provide a visceral sense of how weird a take-off scenario where agents are operating autonomously might look if one Happened now. We also heard tons and tons of stories some Incredibles some horrifying of how much control people gave Open claw to their computer people were running entire businesses jobs functions with it open claw was going rogue all over the place But this stuff was important enough that in February open-close creator Peter Steinberger joined open AI to work on personal agents Even Jensen Huang and video CEO called open claw the most important software release Probably ever and in March meta acquired Mo book as part of its broader push into AI agents So Paul this really is showing that the age of AI agents appears to be starting not everyone's going to dive into open claw It's really really out there on the frontier But we're starting to see elements of agent to AI crop up everywhere along with a lot of complications related to them Yeah, and you know I've been watching it from the outside the open claw stuff like you and I haven't gone in and like built these things yet Mainly because of the risk that's associated with them and the unknowns related to them But like just yesterday I was listening to Claire Voe Voe Claire Voe who on the Lenny's podcast it was incredible and so she shared the story of like going from skeptic to true believer and how her first instance of building an open claw Deleted her like personal family calendar, but then she kept giving it a chance and now she's built like nine different Agents through open claw where she's like running her sales and basically executive assistant And so you start to see the the potential of this as the risk profile start to come down or the governance around them start to be more possible to where you could see this sort of thing being apply within organizations and it really changes your perspective about the future There was the one example that I share with our team internally just yesterday where Claire was talking about the SDR example in her company and how she's got Sam I think it's called is the agent's name and it does all the outreach it does the daily analysis surfaces things for her You know writes the emails all this stuff and it's like wow. It's just like a glimpse into the future once you sort of Like capture how that that all works and how you govern it Not most enterprises are going to be touching this stuff for a while I would say But it does feel like it's just going to become Incredibly important to understand in the future of work and what organizational charts look like And so I think it's something people need to be paying attention to If nothing else as a window into the near future as Google and Microsoft and open AI and others start to figure out how to safely enable this Because open class still requires quite a bit of technical chops to get set up Yeah This like I said there's lots of risks you're having to kind of keep an eye on all that and it's not easy to do But once you kind of break down those barriers in the next six to 12 months and you can spin up an open claw Maybe as easily as you can spin up a new conversation or thread and chat GPT Now it just starts to really change the dynamics of what work looks like Yeah, it feels a bit like the very earliest days of when chat GPT came out Where if you're paying attention, I'm not saying this stuff can do everything everyone says it can do I'm not saying it's safe. It's so early But you're paying attention you can start seeing like back then with chat GPT It's like okay, like it's not doing exactly what I need it to do It is still very rudimentary, but we see clear as day where this is going And once it gets there, it's going to change everything And I think that's where we're at with that Yeah, and if you want to like understand it, I would go listen to the Lenny's podcast interview And there's also a YouTube video of it where you can watch her demo some of these things And I think it makes the whole topic very approachable Because it is a very abstract thing You know, even even listening to the interview with Peter where he was talking with Lex Friedman about the creation of open clots like Your mind is like, I don't really get it Like I'm not really following how exactly this gets set up and like I don't use it I know you're more comfortable working in a terminal Like I've never worked in a terminal. I have no idea how to do that stuff And and so like it just feels Unapproachable to me And then you listen to her explain it and you watch and it's like okay I'm still not going to personally set one up But I totally understand now what why And once it becomes more accessible to people who aren't as technical Um because like I just I don't know the time to go learn it so you start to really realize the impact it could have in the very near future All right trend number six counting down we alluded to before which is about enterprise AI adoption And specifically the people problem in enterprise AI adoption So this is a persistent theme we're seeing more and more especially in q1 is that organizations are failing to generate significant ROI from AI Often not because of technological hurdles But because of the people there's chain management gaps passive adopters legal and IT bottlenecks and Sometimes leadership that is not able to actually lead from the top and as a result deployments are stalling So interesting data that back this up kind of over q1 our own AI pulse survey kind of an informal survey of the audience found that 65% of listeners cited Fear and resistance as either a major challenge or their single biggest barrier to adoption A separate survey revealed a growing disconnect between employees and the how employees and leaders perceive AI's impact You know leaders consistently are overestimating organizational readiness We had some Gallup research showing expanded adoption patterns of AI But a widening gap between power users and everyone else you know about 20 to 30% of employees actively resist AI adoption And you know they also found in some of this research that a lot of enterprise these cases do not actually require Access to sensitive data So this whole idea that our data isn't ready while it's important and is commonly cited as a
The blocker is not the whole story here. Paul, you put this really well in the LinkedIn post a couple months ago saying, "If your company isn't generating significant ROI from AI adoption, then you have a people problem." Like you alluded to earlier in this episode, I mean, we're seeing this even more than I would have expected, I think. I would build on the people problem to say it starts with a leadership problem, most likely. So what I keep finding time and time again is the organizations that are really struggling here often lack CEOs who have presented a clear vision for the future of work in their organization and what is required and expected of their employees in that future of work. And what I mean by that is, if you have a CEO who doesn't fully understand AI capabilities today, doesn't realize that the reasoning has gotten pretty good, that the agentic stuff is emerging and maybe some people on their team are starting to experiment these things. If the CEO doesn't comprehend that, then how is that CEO going to present a vision for what the future of work looks like and to say, "Listen, we expect you to take advantage of AI capabilities. We're going to provide licenses to you." Generative AI platform licenses for chat, GPT or co-pilot or Gemini. We're going to provide AI education and training to you. And as a result, we expect you to constantly improve your AI literacy or AI competency. We want you to make a greater impact on the efficiency and productivity of this organization. We want you to drive innovation. This is what we want from you. Here's how we're going to measure. It's going to be part of your performance reviews. It's literally an expectation that you are doing this. Now there's leading indicators like you're completing the courses, you're getting certificates, you're building GPTs, you're using Gen.A.I. daily. You can look at those leading indicators. But if a CEO hasn't said this yet, then it's going to stay within pockets. Maybe the marketing team is doing it. There's an AI champions group within the marketing team that's doing it. That's what we see way too often. We have hundreds of companies of brands that are part of our AI academy. Almost every conversation goes this way. It's the marketing team, the sales team, someone on the ops team. They're taking the initiative to go get 15, 50, 100 licenses for the AI Ford people in that company, which might be 70,000 people. And they're it. Only ones that are actually seeking out education and training. So we will ask, hey, is the CEO stated what the plan is, presented a future of work? It's like, no, almost every time. Yeah, I think the people problem starts with a leadership problem in that those leaders haven't presented a clear vision and plan for how the organization is going to evolve. Even if it's just, we know it's going to evolve and we're working on figuring it out. We would like you to be engaged in that process. So we're going to provide this tools to you. We're going to provide training to you to help you use those tools. And we think what we're going to see is increases in productivity and innovation and like, let's do this together and we're going to keep you posted. It can be that. It doesn't have to be. We have the answer. But it's so rare to see that being done well right now. I'm curious. Do you see in the leaders where you see that happening? Is that a result of them not knowing they need to communicate that or a result of them not knowing what to do in the first place? I think it's they don't understand AI because, you know, again, think about all the things we talk about. Think about just even these first five trends. Like if you're a CEO and you're seeing this too, how could you be anything other than like racing forward to solve for this? Because there's no way to look at what's going on in AI and realize it's not going to completely reinvent your industry and your company. And so if you truly understand AI's capabilities and you're using it yourself every day and like feeling it each day, how could you not like have a sense of urgency to tell your team that you're working on the plans and to go get those plans in place? So I think it is more just they haven't had that aha moment where they realize the significance of what's happening. And I think a lot of times it was because they knew it was important and they've read the research, but they don't use it themselves necessarily every day. They don't feel it. And so they throw it to like the CIO or the CTO or whoever and they're like, go figure this out. This is a technology problem. It's like, no, it's not. It's a business problem. And it is like going to change everything about the way organization runs. And if it's not treated in that way, then it's not going to have a sense of urgency in other organizations. That's what we see a lot. You see these priority projects in a major enterprise where everyone knows, hey, what's the most important thing to the CIO right now? One, two, three. We know these things. If someone asks that of your organization, like is an AI transformation isn't in the top three, you got a problem. Now I care how big the company is. So I think that's the issue is that it's not being treated as a priority of the CEO. And until it's a CEO's priority, it doesn't like defuse across the organization. All right. Before we get into our next final five trends, Paul here, a quick announcement. This episode is also brought to you by our State of AI for Business Report. On the day you are listening to this, you'll be listening to this podcast episode. In the final week, we are running our 2026 State of AI for Business survey. This survey is going to inform the report. It's an expansion of our popular State of Marketing AI report that we've done every year. And we're going beyond marketing specific research to uncover how AI is being adopted and used across organizations. We are trying to survey thousands of business professionals across every industry and function. If you love the podcast, if you like what we've been doing, we would really, really appreciate it. If you took this survey, if you have not already, it takes about five to seven minutes to complete. You can go to smarterx.ai/survey to share your input. In return for completing this, you will get a copy of the report when it drops, plus a chance to win or extend a 12-month SmartRex AI Mastery membership. So go to smarterx.ai/survey. It is the last week to do this and contribute. All right, trend number five, fast apocalypse. In early February, $300 billion was erased from software and data stocks in just two days after Anthropic announced legal and sales plugins for CAUT. Stocks like legal zoom drop 20% HubSpot, year-to-date, down 39% service now, drop 27%. The S&P software index alone lost 15% in January. And the market called this SaaS apocalypse. And the reason is because SaaS companies are caught in a bit of crisis. Frontier models are releasing features that are eating into the core features of traditional SaaS companies, tools like Cloud Code are giving people the ability to code their own solutions, and its clear frontier model companies and labs are going after not just US software spend, but also US white color wages because AI agents are increasingly able to just do work directly instead of uniting software in the hands of a human to do it. Not to mention, we've talked about in a past episode, SaaS companies are caught in a bit of a pricing crisis at the same time. So the traditional per-seat models start breaking down when one person with AI can do the work of 10. If headcount drops, seat count will also drop. Credit-based pricing is emerged as an alternative, but companies are still working out how to price AI that replaces labor rather than augmenting a workflow. So some SaaS providers are racing to figure that out. Some are trying to become model agnostic. All of them are trying to stay relevant as these underlying models commoditize their features. Paul, where does this stand today? Obviously, the stock values and drops have changed since the initial SaaS apocalypse, but the core issues here, I don't think we figured out in the last two months. I haven't seen any answers yet. I think it's just still more uncertainty. That's what we talked about at the time, that Wall Street hates uncertainty. So SaaS companies have been built through relatively predictable multiples. Their valuations are largely set on that. Their funding rounds are set on that. Their market cap is influenced by it. When all of a sudden, you're like, "Well, maybe in five years, they won't be worth as much, or the multiple won't be as high for software because people can build alternatives." Even though it's like, "Okay, people are going to necessarily spin up their own CRMs," but it starts to create this doubt of, "Well, maybe some small businesses can, or maybe they just don't need as many seats, or maybe they're not willing to pay as much per seat." Or you assume that you're paying your $50 per month seat license whatever it is that your job is to make the software better for me. So why am I paying separately for the AI capabilities? Like, it's just job-paying for the software to do a thing. The intelligence helps me do the thing faster. So it's like, "Is that my problem as a consumer that your costs went up? Like, I'm paying for what I'm expecting from you." So it just, it creates all this complexity. I think a lot of software companies are just scrambling trying to solve for it. I mentioned on a recent episode, I think we're going to see some turnover at the top of a lot of these software companies because it's going to be a difficult time to navigate. And generally, the markets aren't very patient. And so if you start to see these stocks staying down in this 30 to 50% range and there's no bounce back apparent that they're just, it starts to look more and more.
more uncertain, despite the fact that the revenue has been pretty strong, you're going to need to get somebody in there who's got a different vision for how to do this. I just think it's going to be a really challenging time for software companies and the people who invest in those software companies. As a buyer, as a CEO of a company that buys the software you do, every time you think about what does the future look like, it's like, well, is the software we have going to get us there? Just a prime example. The SDR thing I mentioned earlier about the open flaw. You look at what Claire presented in that podcast episode about the future of SDR. I sit here and think, well, is HubSpot going to enable that? That's RCRM, or do I have to go get a third party piece of software to do that? The fact that I even have to stop and ask that question isn't great for software companies. I do that with everything we do. It's like, well, all right, well, the piece of software we have now, we're paying $1,000 a month for it and doesn't do that. That would be really valuable to me. What do we do? I think that that is a microcosm of what's going to go on now is once you understand what I was capable of, you're just going to look differently at your tech stack and your monthly expenses tied to those. What the value you're getting from them is, if all you're getting in return is a credit-based model that you don't understand, you're going to get pretty annoyed, pretty fast. That's how you get motivated to go find something else. As if it wasn't hard enough for SaaS companies, I feel like anecdotally I've heard in the last few months from several people where they're encountering sales reps at software companies that are not as equipped as you would hope to deal with some of these objections. Either why can't I use Cloud Code to do this thing? They don't even know what you're talking about. For people using AI to do really robust research into competitors and the tech landscape that unfortunately sometimes salespeople are not remotely equipped with the same type of research. Then you not only have a bad conversation, but come away saying, "Well, if you're not using AI for this stuff, how do I have confidence that you're using AI?" You have to buy or go to the job and then I run a week and a test of this mic. The same happens on the customer success side. If you're doing the pre-work before you reach out the customer success through Cloud or Chat GPT or whatever, and then you get on a chat with a human at that software company or a phone call with them and you're like, "Dude, I'm doing your job for you. I'll tell you what does it work. I already tried these ten things and they're just looking up a knowledge base." I don't know. Let me check the FAQ. Yeah, I agree. There is this whole, "You need to build an AI for a team at all levels of marketing, sales, success, product because you're going to end up dealing with more educated buyers than the people who are supposed to be in your company helping them solve things." Yeah, what used to be the Google it is now like, "Did you build a strategy in a club before you called them? Did you do all the things?" Right. So yeah, it's going to be hard to work with those customers who are further ahead than your own people. All right. Trend number four, as we count down, is labs pivoting to AI agents. So we really started to see in Q1 every major lab, especially starting in March, kind of starting to pivot towards agente capabilities and enterprise deployments simultaneously. So this, especially happening with the three frontier labs, open AI, for instance, is announce their consolidating chat GPT, their browser and codecs into hopefully a desktop super app. They're doubling headcount to approximately 8,000. So they're, as they target the enterprise and they are trying to build an autonomous AI research intern by September of this year. Anthropic has launch clawed co-work, a more agentex system that's easier for non-technical knowledge workers. To use, they are also just brushing it in the enterprise game and their fight against open AI in terms of signing enterprise licenses. We saw Microsoft restructuring co-pilot under Satya Nadella's direct oversight as they are trying to find their footing as well. And we've seen over the last few months all these different types of agentex releases. Open AI has a dedicated agent products. They've been working on a frontier program to partner with companies and also some PE firms to get in, to get in with different companies and portfolio companies of those firms. Microsoft shipped co-pilot co-work. We even saw in the kind of open source front, Andre Carpathy released an auto research agent. So all this agentex stuff is hitting at the exact same time the labs are not only doubling down on it, but also doubling down on trying to get into and expand within enterprises. And, you know, we've kind of seen this anecdotally as well, just on the podcast as we've conversed about everything agentic, right? We've talked about the timeline to agents managing the chaos of agents, agents swarms, and of course the security nightmares that come with agents. So Paul, it seems like all agents all the time and get those enterprises designed on the dotted line is the strategy of the labs right now. Last year, the 2025 is definitely the year of agent hype, I would say. You know, we dealt a lot last year with over promising from some of these tech companies about agentic capabilities, but you could see the beginnings. It's almost like we're at with kind of open claw now. It's like, it's probably a little bit over hyped at the moment. But the reality is going to start to set in as the year goes on. And so we knew coming into this year, again, agents aren't new. You know, it's been talked about for a decade. We've talked about it extensively. I built it into my eye timeline. The stages of AI that we talked about episode 207 and many times before that from opening the eye has agents as level three. So chat pots, one, reasoners to agents three and then innovators and then organizations at four and five. So agents aren't a new concept, but they are definitely starting to have their moment as they become more autonomous and more reliable in different use cases. As we're talking about this, I was doing quick searches and I can confirm now what I said earlier. So this is tied to this anthropics, Claude code command line interface application, not the models themselves has been leaked and disseminated. This is from ours, technical reading. Apparently, thanks to a serious internal air, the leak gives competitors an armchair enthusiast a detailed blueprint for how Claude code works. A significant setback for a company that has seen explosive user growth and industry impact over the past several months. Early this morning, anthropic published version 2.1.88 of Claude code NPM package. It was quickly discovered that package included a source map file, which could be used to access the entirety of Claude code source, almost 2000 type script files and more than 512,000 lines of code. A researcher was the first to public point out an X with a link to an archive containing the files. The code base was then put into a public GitHub repository and has been forked tens of thousands of times. Keep in mind, we're doing this at 3pm that day. And, anthropic publicly acknowledged the mistake in a statement to venture beat and other outlets, which reads earlier today, a Claude code release included some internal source code. No sensitive customer data or credentials were involved or exposed. This was a release packaging issue caused by human air, not a security breach. We're rolling out measures to prevent this from happening again. So, man, bad couple days for anthropic getting some things put out into the world that should not have been put out into the world. And that one, I think that one's probably pretty significant. There's a whole lot of people would like to access that kind of stuff and they just got it for free. The other thing that's illuminates separately, we'll talk about this in a future topic is the weights of these, the model isn't what got leaked. But the anthropic has been more forthright than anyone about the significance of who has access to the weights of the models. And there was an interview Daria Amade did probably a year, year and a half ago where he said at anthropic, there's literally like three people who have access to the weights. It's been from everybody and said that's the thing that foreign adversaries want to get to. They'll spend billions of dollars to try and get the weights from these models. And it's like how good are the guardrails if that's the future is like you're going to build this insanely powerful thing like the mythos model or ever coming next. And all that's preventing the world from knowing how to replicate that is like figuring out how to get to the three people who have access to those weights. Right. When you're twice in 48 hours like leaking things that shouldn't have been leaked. Right. Just weird. It's like a it's a weird age we're heading into. Yeah. I assume this happens. I just haven't read about it. But you have to imagine some of the higher ups, not even the CEOs of these companies have to be walking around with some serious security. Yeah. It's like the nuclear code space. Like what? Like talk about what you're seeing your engineers or something even not even Daria Amade. I assume he's got air Sam Holman. But higher up employees would be pretty. Yes. Well, this is why there's a part of it is memes part of it. Not. You know, this is how counterintelligence stuff works. Like this is how you do espionage and stuff. So yeah, what's the most valuable thing right now? It would be hard to find things at least in the United States that have a higher value than the weights of these frontier models. So espionage, you know, like I would imagine there's There's rather significant background checks. There's probably a lot of.
internal security monitoring who the top employees are spending time with and friends with we should say and It sounds like a sci-fi movie I can promise you that that stuff is happening like that is a very very real thing and those are high value human targets that you will do anything you can to get Access to what they know Again, we need a series we need a Netflix series on this like it's it's probably you know as much as We talk about all the branches of AI and and all these like intriguing things it is likely infinitely more intriguing than we even know and I use intriguing as a that whether we're carrying a lot of weight Both good and bad intriguing. There's probably so many more layers to what is going on in AI That'll make for such fascinating like I'm not sure Hollywood could do justice probably towards actually going on in the eye world right now All right trend number three we are talking about AI driven layoffs going mainstream So we haven't seen wide-scale AI driven layoffs yet But we have seen a lot more chatter and conversation around this and people starting to actually attribute AI Behind some of the playoffs that are happening so for instance We saw tech company at Lassie and cut 1600 employees 10% of its workforce They explicitly attributed this this quarter to their transition to the AI era They were one of the first major companies to really name AI directly block Jack Dorsey's company cut approximately 4,000 employees nearly half its workforce and talked quite a bit about how AI was making them more efficient their stock surged on that announcement and Just recently we've heard from Uber CEO Talking on the diary of the CEO podcast and saying that executives privately admit the true scale of AI disruption Even though they are going on TV and telling audiences everything or work out fine Uber CEO personally estimated AI will replace the work of 70 to 80% of humans within the decade He has no idea what's gonna happen to ubers 9.5 million drivers in that era either the same week PWC's us CEO told the financial times and employees who think they can opt out of AI are quote not gonna be here that long So Paul we've still seen we've had several thousand layoffs related to AI We talked about how we expect those to rise But I think the bigger thing here really is CEOs are publicly breaking the silence and saying look AI is going to be a factor here Is that kind of what you're seeing and hearing Yeah, this is a trend. I wish we'll go away, but unfortunately I think this is gonna and you can't move too much higher up the list than number three, but Yeah, I expect this trend to continue and to gain steam Unfortunately, you're both the unemployment and the under employment, you know as we get more data around that yeah There was a post this morning. So this is Heather of long chief economist Navy Federal She tweeted US hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February the lowest since April 2020 which was mid-COVID This is a hiring recession in Americans are feeling it there were notable hiring pullbacks in February and hospitality and construction Which was like construction and health care has actually been like holding the market up a bit Bottom line the job market was already frozen before the war and I ran began It's worrying that a no higher no fire situation could turn into a no higher Start to fire job market quickly if there isn't a resolution soon now that is not AI specific There's nothing in there where she was saying this is because of AI But it's simply pointing out what what I've said on the podcast numerous times, which is what I'm hearing is This that no higher no fire like we are not adding anybody and we're gonna try and avoid firing But we are we are pausing hiring and the only new hires will be through attrition when we need to replace people but if like flat growth is is sort of like the desired state right now and as I've said before like I I don't know a CEO who wants to fire 20% of their staff like I've yet to meet that person You know, I think generally speaking leaders of companies want to create opportunities for humans and The idea of human employment and that being a driver of the economy like that's pretty fundamental to our democracy working And it's pretty important that it continues But there's gonna be tremendous financial pressure on leaders to take action and and to capture some of the efficiency gains and profits and That's gonna lead to some very challenging periods here and so this is an area We know we're thinking a lot about like I was actually just talking with Mike and Taylor and our team on the research front So you know really start leaning more into this and trying to do more research around What is happening on the frontiers like what what is being talked about what can we be doing? So it's not just us showing up each week mean like it's getting worse like yeah another 50 people thousand people lost their job We want to try and contribute to the dialogue at least of finding answers I don't have the answers. I have some theories of things. I'm working on myself But I think you know we collectively need to just be exploring ideas here putting think tags together of groups of people that you Trust you can bounce ideas around We just need to be talking more about answers because though it's not coming from the labs who are building the tech and you know creating This eventual uncertainty in chaos So yeah really really important trend. I wish it would go away. It's not going to so we got to do something about it All right trend number two before we hit our top trend this quarter number two is we're seeing more of what we call move 37 moments so we track you know what we call move 37 moments on the podcast. This is this point where A professional in a given field realizes firsthand that AI can match or exceed their expertise This term comes from alpha goes move 37 Against lease at all in 2016. This was when The move that made the world best go player realized the machine had surpassed him and we're starting to see a few more or Glimmers of these moves out in the wild. I mean in February we actually dedicated an entire segment to this phenomenon Sam Altman recently noted that open AI's codex coding tools had suggested features superior to his teams his own teams ideas Dropbox's former CTO declared that you'll never ever write code by hand again Goldman Sachs as we can deploying HOD for trade accounting KPMG is pressuring People to cut audit fees because AI can do it instead David Kipping and astrophysicist reported That AI had about 90% of intellectual capability the he was thing in his field in March a Polish mathematician reported his own move 37 moment after GPT 5.4 Help solve a problem that it resisted conventional approaches Boris churny creator of quad code declared on Lenny's podcast the coding is effectively solved And we also talked about this New York Times AI writing quiz that 86,000 people took were 54% of them preferred AI written passages over the work of famous authors so some glimmers here Paul that the trend is pointing to this list of fields where humans hold this unambiguous advantage seems to be getting shorter Every quarter can tell us a little bit about why move 37 moments are important and it seems like we're seeing more of them Do you agree with that? Yeah, this was the the premise of my make on keynote in 2025 and in essence what I was seeing was You know for the most part AlphaGo which is incredible documentary that sort of changed my perspective on AI and really the future um It was always talked about as a technical breakthrough of like the the technology capabilities of this AlphaGo system And what I challenged people at make on to think about was the human side of it like what happened to Lee Cedall in that moment when he realized the machine was better than him at the game He was an expert in and so that was my premise at that time is like we would all come to experience that lease at all moment Uh where you just say wow, it's just better than me at this thing and then what do we do from there? And so it was a really you know probably the most challenging keynote I've ever given because Up until like 24 hours before I gave it I actually didn't know the ending of the talk because I was trying to like It was the start of our conference. I didn't want everybody like feeling defeated and like oh shit, well, let's just go home And so to take people through where I showed like excerpts from the documentary and hopefully like that had that emotional impact on people To have that somewhat of a gut punch feeling like Cedall had um But then to turn it into something about like yeah, but we still have choice like we can still do something about this and we can figure out How to use these as tools that Give us you know new abilities and a different way to look at business in our own careers And so I think that's what more people are going to come to grips with I don't this is another one where I don't see this slowing down I think this is just a reality and pretending like it's not coming isn't going to do anybody any good You and I each might have these conversations all the time where it's like well, I can't do what I like yeah I get that it's good, but it could never do what I do and it's like Yeah, okay, that's probably not gonna end well for you, but like I understand and you do have to have these moments where you decide like when can you push Someone could be a friend could be a fan
family member could be a coworker, could be a boss. Like, you know, like you listen to this podcast, like you're probably in the know about what these things are capable of and where they're going. And you look around the rest of the world and you just like they're blissfully unaware. Like I was, I was actually, I was, we had our dad's basketball tournament this past weekend, buddy of mine who probably listens to the podcast. He's messing with open claw all the time. Like he's still in all this crazy shit. And so we're sitting at the bar Saturday night after the basketball tournament ended. And it literally is a bunch of dads playing basketball for two days. It's great. But we're talking about what he's doing with AI and with open claw. And then you're like, I don't know, you have that moment where you look around the room there's just hundreds of, you know, couples there. And you're like, damn, they have no idea. Like it's just that. And not in like, I feel bad for them way. A more of like, you're just, the two of you are just living in this parallel universe where like you're seeing the future and you're realizing they all have careers and families and colleges to pay for and kids to raise and they have no concept of like what is going on. And there's a part of me that's envious of that, honestly. Like the ignorance to the moment is actually something I sometimes wish I had. And I think anybody who has the knowledge, you have those moments where you're like, God, I wish I just didn't know what I know. Like I wouldn't be worrying so much about jobs every day in the future of education and like all these things. But once you know it, like you can't turn it off. And then that's, you know, I don't know if the move 37 motors with triggers that for people where you have that realization, like, oh my God, it can do what I do. And then everything is different from that moment on. You just start to look at all of it differently. So yeah, I don't know, it's a really important thing. I will drop the link to my keynote in the show notes. If you haven't watched it, we put the whole thing on YouTube. It was, I would say, I've given thousands of talks now in my life. That was the second hardest talk I've ever done, I would say. Because for different reasons, maybe I'll tell the story at different times. There's one other talk I did it make, kind of was the hardest I ever did. And I'm not saying hard in terms of technically hard, just personally hard. That was a tough one to keep my composure on stage because I knew the punch line I was going for and I was having a hard time getting to it because I think it was like there was no turning back kind of moment for me. So yeah, it's worth a walk, probably, if you haven't seen it. - All right, so our final op trend that we have been tracking this past quarter is what we're calling the vibe shift, so to speak. So this is the quarter where the conversation around AGI really entered, I think the public discourse had entered the boardroom, the newsroom, the living room. And despite, you know, many people still being very early and they're in bubble, like we started to hear about this everywhere. The single piece of content that captured this shift was probably Matt Schumer's essay, "Something big is happening." And this is viewed 85 million times rather on X and in roughly 5,000 words Schumer, who is an AI CEO and founder, wrote about what many insiders had been thinking but not saying publicly, he said, you know, I've historically had parties and things given the polite version of where is AI going? What's going on with AI? Because the honest version, he said, sounds like I've lost my mind and he goes on to detail how we're in this moment of possibly fast AI take off that feels a lot in his analogy like February 2020 right before COVID struck where a few people were seeing signals that the world was about to change. And you know, we've talked about this in a couple other contexts. How this has been all kicked off episode 189, which started this year with a segment called "How Closer We To AGI?" Because basically, "Claudopus 4.5 over Christmas break" was demonstrating some really wild capabilities, especially when paired with "Claud Code." We even had a Google principal engineer saying, "Claud completed a year's work in one hour." The audience responds to our episodes about, are we at this tipping point? Something big is happening or, unlike anything we've ever seen, like listeners have also been seeing this turning point where something changed at the end of last year, the beginning of this year in terms of AI capabilities and in terms of what's now possible, especially to non-technical knowledge workers. So Paul, like how big of a moment are we in? - I mean, you and I did that first episode out of the 2026 when we flipped the calendar. You could just feel it. Like something had changed over that winter break. We talked about it. How, you know, the online dialogue was just different between the people who were building things specifically with "Claud." You know, one of the best ways we keep a poll somewhat going on is by the questions we get from audiences. And so it's one of the luxuries I have of teaching the intro to AI and scaling AI class free every month is, you know, we have like 2000 to 2500 people a month go through these classes. And we take questions live. And so we are getting hundreds of questions, oh, you know, a month basically. In addition to like the speaking engagements, executive briefings where it's like those first hand things. And you can just feel the difference based on what people are asking about. And the stories they're telling of their own experimentations. And it is very, very different than it was three months ago. We did an AI and CLE event just last week, Mike. And there's like 120, 150 people or something registered for it. And the questions we got there, like everyone wanted to talk about how they're using Cloud Code work or what apps they're building with no code, messing with open claw, questions about the environment, political questions, like the dialogue has just moved. It is so far. But even then you have to keep it in context, I guess, because I would say the people who are in the know and out ahead are just moving further and further ahead. And they're experimenting on the frontiers. And it's easy to do what we do and kind of get caught up in that bubble that everyone's moved on. Everyone's ready to talk about code work and open claw and all these things. And then you go spend time with a bank or a healthcare system or manufacturing company or take your pick to school and you're like, man, I don't know anything. If they're using a chatbot, it's likely a base version of a chatbot that doesn't even have all the capabilities built into it. And they're oblivious to all the capabilities. And so I think the haves and the have-nots is maybe a way to say it with AI. The gap is expanding dramatically. And I think over time that's going to start to expand into the outcomes and benefits of it as well to where the distribution of those benefits is going to be heavily weighted towards those early movers and the people who are actually outfiguring this out and they're going to get compounding value while these other people are sort of being left behind. And I don't want that to happen. So I think we feel this vibe shift every day. And I just, you know, I've said before, like I feel like a greater sense of urgency every day to do more because I see so many people who aren't aware yet or don't have a sense of urgency to solve for them their own lives and their own companies. And that's going to be challenging to see. All right, Paul, that wraps up 10 trends for Q1. It's been a wild start to 2026. This is actually really good timing. I think because I feel like this is a good breath and a recap before the storm so to speak. That's going to happen in the next few weeks. When you're back, like with model releases, I think we're in for a very fast spring and summer. Yeah. And just like quick, Jonah, I was thinking about this. So like episode 207, we were talking about Peter Steinberger at OpenClaw. And I was sharing that I'd listened to the Lex Freeman podcast episode, which came out on February 11th, but I didn't listen to until March 30th or 29th or something like that. So I'd mentioned at the time, like, you know, he was talking to Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg, but then when you said the thing about him going open, I was like, oh, shit, that's right. He did go to OpenAI. So I'd mentioned like, oh, he might go to Meta or whatever. But no, Steinberger published a post on February 14th. So three days after the Lex Freeman podcast saying, I'm joining OpenAI to work. I'm bringing agents to everyone, we'll move on or move to a foundation and stay open and independent. And so that he's got a blog post we'll throw in. So yeah, just like a quick-- and I'm not 100% sure what I said, but in that episode with Friedman, he talked about he was going to basically go work for one of those two. And I think I was like-- I have my name in the inter-Zuckerberg. But yes, he did. He did it up, like, going to OpenAI and moving OpenClaw to more of a foundation model. So yeah, just kind of a quick show. Now we'll throw that link in the show notes you can see it. But yeah, so hopefully this trends format was super helpful to people. It's helpful to us. It's always one of my favorite things Mike and I get to do each quarter is like, step, I'm like, holy cow, how did that all happen in three months? And I feel like just the 10th trend, just all the models is hard enough to comprehend that all happen. And we always inevitably might get these like, what about this? What about this? What about this? Trust us, we know. There's like one of the other things I could have made the top 10. Yeah, we only have so much time in the data to go through each of these things. So good.
Thanks Mike for putting this all together. These are great. - You can know. - And like I said, hopefully we'll make this kind of a recurring show. We'll probably do it. It's like a bonus episode moving forward. You know, unless we have a week or on vacation, but we'll start doing these as like a special quarterly episode and we will be back April 14th with the next weekly episode. So yeah, I mean, we've already had a lot happen in the first two days of this week. So if I imagine by then we're gonna have like a hundred links to get through my, oh my gosh. - Look how you're okay. - Well, I have a great Easter holiday and trip if you're taking spring break anywhere. Celebrity Easter, you know, enjoy the time with the family. So I'm planning on doing it and hopefully not working too much. But I got a long flight and I can't sleep on flight. So I'm gonna be super productive like 20 hours. Out of that, I'm gonna try and just enjoy time with my family. So thanks for listening. We'll be back with you again soon. Thanks for listening to the Artificial Intelligence Show. Visit smarterx.ai to continue on your AI learning journey. And join more than 100,000 professionals and business leaders who have subscribed to our weekly newsletters, downloaded AI blueprints, attended virtual and in-person events, taken online AI courses and earned professional certificates from our AI Academy. And engaged in a smarterx Slack community. Until next time, stay curious and explore AI.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast episode is a special Q1 2026 trends review, covering 10 key trends due to the host being on vacation.
A major trend is the rapid and compressed release of frontier AI models (e.g., Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.4, Gemini 3) by major labs, making model evaluation and selection for specific use cases increasingly critical for businesses.
AI has become a top-tier political issue, with significant funding flowing into pro-AI lobbying groups advocating for deregulation, while legislative efforts emerge to pause data center expansion and regulate AI.
A significant ongoing story is the legal and contractual dispute between Anthropic and the U.S. Department of War over access to Claude models for military applications, resulting in a preliminary injunction against the government.
Summary:
This special episode of the Artificial Intelligence Show reviews the top 10 AI trends from Q1 2026. The hosts highlight an unprecedented pace of frontier model releases from companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, making capabilities assessment vital. They discuss the surge of AI as a political focal point, marked by hundreds of millions in lobbying for deregulation and counter-proposals for regulatory pauses.
S. government, where Anthropic refused unrestricted military use of its Claude models, was designated a supply chain risk, and subsequently won a preliminary injunction against the designation. The episode concludes by noting the critical need for organizations to develop internal evaluation frameworks to navigate the fast-evolving model landscape and leverage AI effectively.
FAQs
Many organizations lack CEOs who present a clear vision for the future of work and define what is expected of employees in that context.
It helps businesses grow smarter by making AI approachable and actionable, featuring weekly breakdowns of AI news and insights to advance companies and careers.
It featured a Q1 trends review, summarizing about 150 topics from 12 weekly episodes into 10 key AI trends for early 2026.
It is a platform that accelerates AI literacy and transformation through personalized learning journeys, offering courses for departments like marketing, sales, HR, and finance.
There was a rapid release of frontier models, including Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.3 Codex, Gemini 3, and Grok 4.2, with capabilities advancing quickly across benchmarks.
Different models excel in specific use cases; having custom evaluations helps determine which model is best for high-value tasks and when to adopt new releases.
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