2026 WIN TOTAL LOCKS! 🔒 College Football Best Bets & Teams To Fade | Cover 3

Welcome back to the Cover 3 Podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Connell, and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 Podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Finnelli. That's Danny Canale. That's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live at youtube.com slash cover3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe. Smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 tailgate, where they are jacked to get locks season off and rolling. That's right. This Thursday and next Thursday and the Thursday and the Thursday and the Thursday and the Thursday. All the Thursdays after that, clear your calendar. Throw it on there. 11 a.m. Eastern time. youtube.com slash cover3 is where you'll find us. Today, the order of business is going to be our very favorite win totals picks. We've been spending a lot of time over the last month giving you a win totals angle breakdown of all the power conferences. But hey, this notepad right here, it's got some picks from outside the power conferences too. If you think my baby planes aren't ready to fly, come on. You don't know. You ain't been on a win total show before. All right. We will be getting to our win totals locks in just a second. I did want to hit the news of the day or as it, uh, as it was so eloquently put in the college football newsroom. I'm not going to out them, but the blank has just hit the fan and the blank has just hit the fan is literally a Tampa Bay Buccaneer getting two tackles in a preseason game and then suing in order to restore some college eligibility. Now, Jack Pyburn is just one of about 16 players. But this is. I've gone all across the industry. You know, we've got front office personnel that are breaking down NFL preseason tape, trying to consider what they could be doing with their last roster spots. We don't have any movement yet in terms of something, but Elliot predicted a long time ago. Like, are we going to see guys go from a practice squad to all of a sudden show up on a college campus? Uh, Danny, I'm gonna let you get first word here. This is all very fluid. Again, we've got wind totals business to get to. But this feels, uh, this feels a little bit of like a look in the mirror for college football right now. Oh, absolutely. And it's like, who are you going to be mad at? Like, who are you get upset at? You know, do you get upset at the players who are taking advantage of this loophole? Do you get upset at the attorneys who are fighting it for him? Do you get mad at the NCAA for not getting in front of this and just, you know, at the beginning of this thing saying, yep, we're going to grandfather in those five-year players and let them play. So maybe you wouldn't have seen this happen, but you still could have, right? There still could. There still could have been players that thought, oh, cause they get bad advice all the time. Oh, I'll go to the NFL. I'll get, I'll get paid there and they go and they don't get drafted where they want or they go undrafted. And here we are. This one does suck. Like I hate this because this is probably the furthest removed. Like we've gone so far from the college football that I knew, but this is so far out there when you actually have somebody like a Jack Piper and who has two sacks in a preseason game and is playing in an NFL uniform and there's potential for him to be back in the back playing in college football. That's not the college football that any of us grew up rooting for. I mean, I'm still going to watch. I'm not gonna be that upset, but it's just, it just doesn't feel, it feels like college football has lost its soul, if you will, but we might've lost it five or 10 years ago. What if it's all theater? So look, I, I, I think the NCAA plan this, right? I think that they strongly thought, no dead serious. Just follow me. I know, I know, I know, I know. I know where you're going to. Yeah. I think they really. They thought that this, that this bill was going to get through the Senate and that come fall, they were going to have a real battle in the house, which was always going to be the tougher side. And they knew that excluding the class of 2022, which is stupid to exclude them from the five for five rule would basically set them up to get their ass kicked in court. Right. Which is exactly what's happening. The argument's pretty clear, but for me being erroneously told that I didn't have any eligibility left, I would not have declared for the NFL. Right. So these guys. No, they could have made a lot more money to stay in college. The NCAA said you cannot stay in college because this rule does not apply to the high school class of 2022, which was already kind of screwed by all the COVID stuff anyway. Right. Like those guys got kind of got jobbed. So then the NCAA was like, oh, if we get our ass kicked by these rogue judges due to our own like dumb rule and application of the rule, we can just point and yell about that to Congress. Right. Guys, we have to have federal intervention on this for the mistake that we fully created. Right. Because look. Look how crazy this is. Now, look, they missed on something. The bill didn't get through the Senate. Right. So now they just look really foolish. It's still kind of a cost savings if you forget about the attorney's fees, because there's like not enough spots for the vast majority of that class of 2022 anyway. But I think they were setting this up. I think they wanted to have something to yell and scream about how this sport is totally out of control to Congress. And that's why they did not apply the rule to the 2022 class. They had to know like their their fact pattern here is horrendous and they would get to destroy it in the courts, which is what's happening. I mean, I'm really not that bothered by it, to be honest with you, because it's kind of a short term problem. Like it's going to happen this year. But if the eligibility rules are in place going forward, then it's not a long term issue. Like, OK, so some of the 2022 guys get to come back and try to find roster spots. Fine, whatever. It's a minor means for the long term goals of eligibility, which is the one thing I feel like they've had to get fixed for a long time because it solves a lot of the quote unquote problems where you're not having. All these dudes, you know, like 35 years old coming back. I'm more interested in what you kind of touched on there, bud. These teams, I mean, we're what, two weeks away from the season starting already allocated their funds towards their roster. They've already got all their roster spots filled out. I want to know, like, if you're this, if you like, if you're one of these players coming back, if you're Piper and where's your spot, does LSU have a spot waiting for you? Are they going to pay you more than the NFL training camp? Team was at this point. Do they even have that money? Are boosters going to sit there and be like, yeah, you know what? I'll pony up another 700 grand just, you know, right now, short notice to put this guy back on the team is like, are these guys true difference makers to that level? I don't know. It's going to be interesting to see where they end up. If I can get a 23 year old grown man who was a seventh round draft pick or a really good player in conference and my boosters have already turned to page 50 million in their wallet, I guarantee they're going to flip that page to page 51 and get him back on the roster. Trent Hendrick was the Sunbelt Defensive Player of the Year. He's another one of the players that's listed here at JMU. I mean, that's that's somebody that you could just add to a room and all of a sudden you're going to be a lot better. Zavian Harris, Daquan Wright. I mean, there are there are players, good players. Now disrupting the chemistry to me is a little bit more of an interesting. How do you think coaches are going to approach that? Oh, I don't think they're worried about. I mean, chemistry, I think, went out the door the minute we saw. Portal and I mean, almost every team has, you know, at least 30 or 40 percent turnover on the roster and some of them are at 50 percent. So you're kind of building that chemistry every offseason. So, yeah, you get a little bit of a late start. But I mean, a lot of these guys, especially if they come back and play for the schools that they were at, it's not that big a deal at all because they'll know some of the players. The thing I think this is huge for is the depth piece. What do we hear every coach complain about with the new playoff system and the new format is we have to play 13, 14, 15 games potentially. It's a great thing. It's grind. It's grueling. And it is. But now, even if these aren't star players, quote unquote, like they're guys that are going to be potential first round picks next year to add the depth piece, you know, across an offensive or defensive line or linebacker, like positions that are very, you know, injury prone and you get nicked and dinged all season long. That's huge. So I do think the piece, too, that's interesting. I think we all assumed that they'd be maxed out at 105. Do you think this shows you like Indiana's ability to just. Bring in their two players right away. Do you think they have to clear spots? Do you like is anybody even counting the hundred and five or do you think they're not at a hundred and five? I think some teams are at a hundred and five. I'm not sure that all teams are at a hundred and five. Spoken for you mean. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Look, their tailgate wants us to keep going. You listening, watching at home. You signed up for win totals, but it is a is a significant story that is evolving, wanted to make sure we address it. And hey, I'll give you a little takeaway here. Our friend Cooper Patagna has a story on 24 seven sports right now where he evaluated 10 of the prospects and sort of identified, you know, what was strong about them, why coaches might be interested in them. Go and check out Coop's work always. But especially on this issue, as he was one of the first, you know, prominent voices of authority, who was able to gather all this together and really mobilize as this happened again on Wednesday, late after noon. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to our very favorite win totals picks. That's right. Win totals, locks and more next. The cover three podcast is proudly brought to you by our friends at home field, the undisputed leader in premium vintage collegiate apparel. It's made by and for true college football fans. Forget about cheap materials or boring. Low effort designs. Home field obsessively researches every single detail. 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on the cover three podcast and and this sometimes you do need to sit down uh not just in any kind of chair in a daggum locking chair so striker you'll know what to do this is the first locks episode it's very similar but i need to ask these gentlemen something first gentlemen y'all ready to lock it up yes sir let's go let's do it since 2005 the under and games between service accounts is 40 dash nine and one give me an over on this one as well a little two for one special don't get these locks i was a sicko last week y'all were watching a good game i was live betting the hell out of ul in kentucky my blue plate special five star locks are coming five star master lock lock it up i'm i'm living and dying at every point every cover from the locking chair to your eyes and ears yes it's time to take all of our picks all of our leans and let's put it down on the spreadsheet start and fresh here with the win totals getting it rocking and rolling uh bud elliott you you came in fired up you said how much you loved this board you've got everything you said right now is the time when bud tells you it's the time to buy in on a win total right yeah for sure for three months and all the prices have been uh never mind we're not it's too early in the podcast for a bonnie blue reference okay uh bud why don't you get us started we're gonna go to lane under seven and a half started off with with a bang i i had a in in my model had a massive coaching uh downgrade losing summer all uh switching to will hall uh not in love with some of the portal class i think it did a good job with with a few uh i think the schedule is tricky and i think the american uh is probably the most wide open conference like like slightly more wide open than the sec is this year so uh two lane under seven and a half will kick it off nice anybody else got anything else on two lane anybody got anything else on two lane got anything else in the american like for the chat that's not sicko mode like why i've no come on we're talking about a team that was legitimately in the college football playoff last season there's nothing sick i mean that's about that's mainstream through yeah exactly right um under seven and a half with the adjustment there since we look this is an opportunity for us to be able to weigh in there does anybody else have an a win total lock in the american i do okay what you got okay i'm gonna go with tolts uh over five and a half year two of trey lamb and it's not just because of his handicap it is because we are um we we feel a little bit confident about the way we're gonna have some continuity nine freshmen starts at quarterback last year and now he's starting to get full control of the offense we're checking in on some of the opening scrimmages seems like a few of our innings are going to be going to be going to injury concerns have been addressed along the way and as i do look at the uh the league that bud just mentioned the american athletic conference what i see is not a whole lot of separation up and down and so if you're going to be finding that that top tier is going to undergo some real turnover from uh if north texas is going to take a step back if tulane is going to take a step back if south florida is going to take a little bit of a step back well then you've got to think that you of that so with baylor hayes back and really settling into that position they do start speaking of north texas against oklahoma state but then we get some opportunities to really fill the bag up with wins sam houston east texas a and m those should be double digit favorite opportunities a little bit later you also got the battle against charlotte i'm gonna need the coin flips to really go their way as they've got fau playing at home they've got a the game they should be pretty decently favored against rice though rice i'm always wary of and i'm going to be wary of north texas again another team that's going to take a step back but you see those teams the north texas you see the two lane you see the opportunities where they might be able to take a step forward season finale against utsa obviously going to be tricky but boys i just need them to be a bowl team so i'm going to go ahead and throw in tulsa over five and a half yeah i i go ahead i did you say you asked for any american i do have an american play yes uh i'm gonna go usf under eight and a half wins um we got a little trend here i mean alex golish was phenomenal byron brown when he was healthy was great um but the two years before this last nine and three season there were seven and six they do have a trickier schedule i think there's a lot of rebuilding pieces there um that they're gonna have to replace some of the best players did go to auburn with alex golish um they play army this year they lost to navy the last couple years playing against triple option team brian hartline's first gig as a head coach um i think they'll be fine in the long term but i think trying to get to nine wins in your first year is going to be a little bit lofty so i'll go under eight and a half for usf i i had like small edges on both your your tulsa and your usf i just like they're they're pretty related you know um and i i was a little bit stronger on two lane and obviously two lane and usf play each other so right but usf and uh usf yeah that's correct so they yeah we we can both be rocking there tom you want to get in on some action that aac love how do you feel about navy because i feel pretty good about navy i like them i just feel like they're priced like like their prices but man it's yeah go ahead sorry i like over seven and a half with the mids man it's we've talked about it there is the reason that you're on the under two lane and then buds or danny's on the under of south florida a lot of it is related to the fact that they're two lane and they're two lane and they're two lane and they're two lane and they're two teams they're going through a lot of coaching changes memphis is going through a coaching change there's a lot of change like the scc came and rated this league of its best coaches last year you know who doesn't have many changes navy and the guys who they are replacing well they're being replaced with guys who were where navy they aren't going to the portal building a brand new team this is a team that's been together this is a team that's developed it's a team with an identity it's a team that knows what it's doing and it's a team with a pretty friendly schedule overall like when you look at who they have to play in the american like they've got utsa on the road that's not fun they get memphis but that's at home and again i don't know what memphis is going to be this year they get north texas who was good last year but north texas is going to be a completely different team this year who knows what's going to happen there so i just think outside of notre dame there's really not a game i look at on this schedule and say you know what navy has no shot of winning that so to see the win total at only seven and a half let's go lock it up navy over seven and a half oh god um anything else in the american i'll just it's it's such a wide open league man all right i'll go ahead and let this one out cutting room floor a bud tell me what your uh this is not a lock but just coward fine blaze it uab over three and a half come on fire the ad and they fired dill for it and now we're on board listen the way that they played for alex mortensen last year after the coaching change oh boy that was a vibes anchor on that program yeah they played free they played loose they looked better and so yeah Yeah, I think that there's an opportunity for UAB to go. I'm asking for you to go and get four wins. So where are they going to come from? Here's the thing that's fun about actually having to root for this is I've got three games where they should be touchdowns of about, they should be favorites of about a touchdown or more. ULM, Samford, and Charlotte. So that's my three. In every other game, I think they're going to be underdogs, maybe by a touchdown or more. So I am rooting to hit this win total on vibes alone. There ain't no damn numbers to this one. This one is just about what Alex Mortensen has done, coming in, rejuvenating a proud program, giving this fan base something to really be excited about. And so if I've got three games that I feel pretty good about, then all I need there is for them to pull off one upset. Come on, Ryder Burton. Get it done for me. UAB over three and a half. Now, are you genuinely locking that? I don't want to bully you into locking it up if it's not a real lock for you. I mean, it was. It was on the pad. But I'm saying, are you – this is official record? Yeah, it's official record. All right, so you're not a coward. Cool. All right. Yeah. I came ready. I've got 16 bullets I could fire. I treat it just like locks where I come with like 20 and walk out with 12. So we'll see what ends up on the cutting room floor. Anything else in that realm there in the American Athletic Conference? No. I'm like really excited to watch this league this year. Like there's so much uncertainty. Did you see who's starting for Rice at quarterback? No, tell me. Throwback name here, boys. Jacuri Brown. Yeah. Wow. He was at UCF? Actually, I will say at Valdosta. Yeah, Miami. Where did he go after that? UCF. Right. Maybe another. Like back at Valdosta, the question was always, can this guy throw? Because he was a hell of a runner. And Rice runs a lot of that like kind of funky motion shift option stuff. That's going to be fun to watch. Like I'm not locking them up, but it's interesting. Rice has a sneaky good name depth chart. There's a lot of names on there that are pretty interesting. You mean like names like the way that when Dan Mullins names? Aquantis Clemens. Joseph Mutombo, Chibi and Waku, Stone Combs, Bo Barton. These are great names. They're like key and peel names. Yeah. I thought you were talking about names like when Dan Mullin first got to UNLV and we were like Jojo Earl, you know, like just like all the names of. I mean, like six season of your NCAA dynasty names. Yeah, let's go. All right. Coming up on the other side, more of our favorite win totals picks for the twenty twenty six season and more next. Back here on the cover three podcast, Danny, why don't you take us where you want to go? What's what's what's burning on your pad that you want to unveil on the locks pod? You know what? It's been a lot of SEC and Big Ten love, you know, this offseason talking about the Super Two. Let's give a little love to the ACC. And why not? Well, I mean, who me? I mean, come on. Somebody here has got to bring some balance to the conversation. And you know what? We've had Gator Danny before in the past. We have not seen Hurricane Dan at a long time. And maybe we never see it again. But have you guys heard about this streak with the Miami Hurricanes about that? They have not won an ACC title since they've been there. It's been something that's just been hung over there the whole time. Not familiar. Can you fill me in? Right. They have not won an ACC championship since joining the league. That was twenty two years ago, right? That was twenty two years ago. I am going to say that that trend is snapped. I'm going to go over the Miami Hurricanes. Ten and a half wins on the season. I think this team has a significant deeper pockets than most of the teams in the ACC. I think their roster is more talented and deeper than most teams in the ACC. And I see a schedule where they'll be favored in every single game except for one. And in that game, it'll probably be less than a field goal. I think Darian Mensah might be the best quarterback the Miami Hurricanes have had. Since Mario Cristobal has gone to this quarterback carousel in the transfer portal. They've got Mark Fletcher. They've got Malachi Tony, one of the best weapons in all of college football. By the way, I didn't even mention Darian Mensah brings Cooper Barcaid with him. Coordinators intact. Defense. I know they lost a lot off the edges, but I still think Marquis Lightfoot and transfer Damon Wilson will be more than adequate to show enough defense to get the stops they need. Give me the Miami Hurricanes over ten and a half. The Miami Hurricanes over ten and a half wins. Block agreement. Hoo! Yay! Yeah, I think the upgraded quarterback, the receivers are totally sick. I think they completely overwhelm ten of the eleven and twelve opponents they play. And I don't think they should be a seven-point dog in South Bend. So, I show value. I think every time they have. I mean, it's going to be hard to motivate. It's going to be hard to motivate for Stanford and Wake. But I think all you have to do if you're Mario is remind them about the two games last year that they lost to Louisville and SMU. If they have a practice where they're not locked in, he's got the motivational factors there. I don't think they slip up. Tom? I'm not joining them. I'm not against it in any way, but I'm not going in on it. They are mispriced in the rankings. They are closer to being tied for second than seventh. There's not a massive gap between Miami and those teams between them. We have to put them in that order because that's the way rankings work. But they are closer to number one than they are to number eight. I would have them favored if they were in the SEC. You know, I think they would be like a co-favorite in the Big Ten. And they get to play not only an ACC schedule, but like one of the easiest draws from the ACC. I'm not locking it up with you, but like the chat is kind of making me want to. Because like there's. There's a lot of like, are you not familiar with Mario Cristobal in the chat right now? Are you not familiar with the fact Miami got to the title game last year? And beat Ohio State? Texas A&M in their house. Ohio State on a neutral. It's not 2025 anymore, kids. Like this team nearly won the national title. They had Indiana on the ropes in the fourth quarter just a few months ago. Yeah. I think their coaching staff is really good. I mean, Shannon Dawson on offense. Heatherman on defense. Like Taylor is an incredible defensive line coach. You know, Mirabal is a really good offensive line coach. You know, I think like, I mean, their talent level kind of reduces the need for some of the game management stuff. And he was honestly, I would say, better at that last year than he had been in prior years. Love that. Just, Ruben, keep your eyes on the road. I know you're fist pumping right now, but I need you to keep your eyes on the road. Okay? Two hands. Ten and two. Uh, Tom, where would you like to go? Uh, this was not originally on my card when I woke up this morning, but thankfully I put reminders in my phone because I know I'm stupid and I know I'm going to forget things. So I got, I got this, this morning because I remember a few months ago, I'm having trouble reading it, I guess, but it says lock up Kentucky under mom Silovich, because as you'll spend all the money on the basketball player. Exactly. Exactly. It was a few months ago when Kentucky announced that they had signed for Mullen mom Silovich and the reports came out that they were getting him $6 million to keep him from going to the NBA and to come back and play one more year of college at Kentucky. And my first thought was, well, if they're given $6 million to one basketball player, I don't think they're going to have as much money available to their football roster as the rest of their sec brethren. And for Will Stein, who's bringing in a new roster with his new coaching staff. I just don't know how much money they have. So while we did our FTC win total picks, I was on the under for Kentucky naturally, but I wasn't on the under enough that I would have originally locked it up, but I am a man of my word. And I said, months ago, I was going to lock this up. So lock it up, Kentucky under four and a half. Thank you. Milan mom Silovich for costing the football team. Anybody else get what, why do we win? Cause of me. All right. Anybody want to get the other side? Of, uh, of Will Stein's Kentucky or join Tom? I definitely don't want over. Uh, no, I, that's one that like, I think I liked the conference number better. So I'm not going to lock up the overall. Okay. Well, explain that for those who didn't maybe listen to the sec pod. Yeah. So you, you can, you can instead bet like how many conference wins, what will they have? Right. And so like, you may have a bigger edge in conference or in non-conference. Um, so that one, I just, I don't, I don't have like a, a big enough edge here to bet it on, on August 20th for, for the lock spot. Okay. Um, do you want to, but what would you like next? Do you want to stay in the sec or do you want to, um, just sort of bounce around? It's up to you. Yeah. I'll, I'll, uh, I'll take one that, that I feel like it's weird because I really trust the head coach and think he does a good job. I firmly believe that A&M is going to win a national title under. Mike Elko with the way that they're running. things with the way that they are acquiring talent uh but like concepcion was awesome for them last year and they had four offensive linemen drafted and i know they think all these transfers they took on the offensive line are going to be just as good and i don't right and i think concepcion's real a real loss for them and the schedule is much tougher than it was last year like much tougher so give me a and m under eight and a half i think they go eight and four i think they missed the playoff yeah lock agreement baby i mean i'll echo a lot of what bud just said it's not really a statement about not believing in the coach or the staff or the program and what they're doing it's just that last year they were a good team that caught the right end of a schedule and this year i think they're still a good team but they're on the wrong end of the schedule they have one of the most difficult schedules in the sec as far as conference play goes and i think that they're going to suffer for it in the regular season because we saw when they played the better teams on their schedule they didn't look like the same team that was playing you know the lesser teams they looked like a different football team entirely they looked more like an eight and four team than a 10 and two or an 11 one team so i think they're going to look like that eight and four team come the end of the season i no lock here but i i think that i've i think i sided with you when we did the show i do not have texas a and m and in my project at college football playoff brackets i i see i i can see where this thing's headed you know but i was thinking about this the way that this is being lined the way that it is being priced is respect for mike elko because there's no way in hell you would look at all of the other changes that have happened and the results of last season and and give that kind of respect it is belief that mike elko is going to be able to have this team knocking on the door of the playoff once again so in a sense it's like them uh maybe like brent key at georgia tech there's a few spots where i think the head coach is maybe getting respected even by the way that it's priced so texas a and m under for tom and bud then you got anything there we need to we need to have a fight let me make sure i still have that button nearby that's it that's not it all right cool i think i think danny might come i think i can lure him in i'm gonna go over under six and a half i find that okay i think that the auburn tigers have some issues at the lines of scrimmage that are going to be a little bit problematic in the sec and that while byron brown's physicality and escapability are going to be able to allow him to extend plays if they're not getting great play along the offensive line um it's it's a red flag in a conference where you don't want to have red flags at that point of the depth chart and as i'm moving around all my people i'm going to pieces in the sec and i'm looking at auburn schedule other teams that i'm excited about teams that i might even be locking up later on here in this very episode about four or five of the teams that i'm considering all there so if i am starting to think that those issues along the lines of scrimmage could be extremely problematic in four or five six of your sec games i think it's really tough to think that this is going to be a team that's going to get on the other side of six six and six good i mean six and six bowl game good season for auburn good way to to lay the foundation but ultimately just because you retained dj durkin and and just because you brought back xavier atkins i still think there's some personnel questions for me so i'm going to be going under the six and a half for the auburn tigers yeah that's the only way i would play it i i'm not locking that right now but uh yeah i i think are you going over with your guy danny uh yeah i mean you said you wanted to fight you better be careful what you wish for let's go because i am gonna get on the other side of this one yeah i'll fight this all day yeah give it to me alex golish coming in i mean no one in 20 years has taught the band director the fight song i mean come on and it does not i mean what means more to the college football team than learning the words the fight song with the band in the team room teaching them how to do it that aside if that isn't enough i think alex golish is a really good football coach i think it has been a little bit of a disaster behind the scenes there the last few years i think the defense still has a lot of pieces intact that some are some really good players and i am a believer in byron brown to be physical enough to be enough of a playmaker to get a lot of these tighter games one possession to be a lot of these tighter games that some are some really good players and i think alex golish is a really good football coach and i think the defense still has a lot of these tighter games one possession war damn eagle they get over the six and a half let's go a hell of a start for them need need to need to see a lot of red on the board now we've got a little now we've got a little uh tom where would you like to go uh let's see here i've got one more s do we want to go conference or should i just bounce anywhere i said i'd like to get to my favorite play yeah bounce i'm gonna go with my favorite play of any so far i'm gonna go with my favorite play of any so far um austin college under no no i don't you know see the problem with that is then i've got to pay attention to boston college and you know i don't really care saturday take care of yourself you don't need to pay attention to that i don't want to be any more connected to bc than i need to be this year it's like when they're you know if they're up on like miami in the first or second quarter okay i'll check in but that's really as far as i want to take that relationship no no no no i am going i just took the under in texas a&m one of my questions about texas a&m is the fact that they have to replace coordinators including the one on offense who put together a very good offense last year with marcel reed playing what was considered a light schedule in the sec well colin klein must bring the schedules with him wherever he goes because not only is he taking over at kansas state this year and not only do i have faith that my man can do for avery johnson my boy what he did for marcel reed but kansas state also has a very favorable schedule in the big 12 you know who you don't see on that screen right now gentlemen you don't see a byu you don't see a texas tech like houston you get but they're at home so yeah kansas state a win total at only what seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half this is legitimately my favorite win total play of the season i i like that too yeah i i have some other ones in the big 12 so i but i like a little bit more but even kansas state a win total play of the season i i like that too yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah give me kansas state over seven and a half was it yeah it is a list of the teams that you would want if you were trying to build the best possible schedule for colin klein and that includes a washington state team that is totally undergoing a coaching change as well so um set up set up nice for up for colin klein as he takes over as head coach of his alma mater i like that a lot all right uh bud would you what would you like what's your favorite on the board have you already seen it what's your favorite on the board what's your favorite on the board have you already seen it what's your favorite on the board have you already said it was tulane your favorite my name was texas a&m tulane was pretty solid um like i i like minnesota over five and a half a whole lot like that that's like it's like minus 150 though i was trying to give out everything in like a you know pretty reasonable range taking some some plus money taking some but i i do like minnesota over five and a half and the real explanation here is i i think some of their young receivers are uh kind of underrated but will emerge like the quarterback like the coach and like the coach and like the coach and like the honestly like like when i when i broke this down i was like why is this shown as an edge for me because i don't think i'm like that high on minnesota i just i have like slight under leans on like seven of their opponents right so i'll take minnesota over i think they go bowling one second here is it five and a half or six and a half yeah i thought it was six and a half no it's five and a half yeah it's five five and a half like minus 160 plus 130 let's let's let's let's not lock that up like that that's that's a little no no no no no no that's the consensus now it's five and a half i don't know i'll take five and a half thing that's fine yeah love that i mean drake lindsey's great they they go to a bowl game every single year right don't know how don't know how it's gonna happen they'll win a bowl game too you know yeah like that i'll balance it out with some plus money stuff okay all right thank you what about um while we're here doing our five and a because you are literally putting yourself in the shoes of a fan who is rightly viewing their season as a coin flip between whether or not they are bowling um we're going right back to it i am going to put my proverbial money where my mouth is i want this to be a turtle pod i want this to be cheering for malik washington taking the malik and that maryland is in the postseason in 2026 i'm going to add maryland over five and a half to that category um we we just did this one so i don't know if we need to expand much more on it but i i just wanted at least written into the record that just like when we were looking at um maryland in i guess they were in part one because we went to ohio state yeah the big 10 win total is part one we acknowledge sahir mathis out for the season with the leg injury stinks because he was one of the best freshmen not just in the big 10 but in the country last season but i i truly believe in him and i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going to put my proverbial money right back to it so i'm going Penn State there's not a lot of games where they're going to be feeling like they are outclassed so I've got them winning enough coin flips about half of them to be specific to be able to get to six and six give me Maryland over five and a half I'm not locking it up because as was evidenced by my Kentucky pick I'm strictly I'm sticking to the science and strict kind of numbers here for my actual locks and there's a little too much hope and heart in my Maryland over so I'm not joining you but you know you have my full support thank you I'm glad I appreciate that we're rooting for you Chip hey I've been I've been out on my own many times before speaking of turtles yeah speaking of turtles if you want to see what I would look like as a turtle make sure you go to Paramount Plus and subscribe to the cover three page because we're up there now yeah we are on Paramount Plus Paramount Plus please go and check it out add it to leave this up forever add it to my stuff uh you know you're like go ahead and make sure that you'll be able to go check it out all full episodes of the cover three podcast on Paramount Plus as well as here on youtube.com slash cover three uh Danny what you want I've got um I need to get a little bit balanced here so I need to underplay um I've seen this story happen way too many times where we see a five-star coming out of high school and he's projected to be all everything and then falls well short of it and then gets a second opportunity and everybody gets all excited and then all of a sudden you realize maybe just a five-star ranking was not correct because maybe that player just struggles to play the sport of football I hate saying that because it feels kind of mean it did it sounded a little mean that's okay and upset like you sometimes need to find your level yeah this might be his level but I don't know it might also be at the group of six level um give me Baylor under six and a half for the season DJ Lagway I know I know Jake Spavadal has been there and he's the quarterback whisperer um but he's going to be asked to throw the football quite a bit and he's got to figure out the turnover situation I didn't love some of the things he was saying on the way out from Florida and he's going to be asked to resurrect and save Dave Aranda's job I don't know if it works out for DJ Lagway and Baylor I would love to be wrong on this one but I do not see Baylor getting to seven wins so I'll go under anything else on Baylor no I just this may just come down to the first game right like if they beat Auburn you know yeah I'm sitting here on it might be lost right DJ you DJ Lagway for Heisman if they beat Auburn I'll think about it pretty quick um yeah I Danny you and I are both on the under for those teams so we need both of them to lose um for the math to work out I don't know how that's going to happen I ain't got the under on both of them I got the over on Auburn no I'm saying you and I do like you and I both have the under like I've got Auburn under you've got Baylor under oh you've got the Auburn over yeah exactly what are you talking about I know it's a pretty big game for Daniel game of the year candidate you know game of the year of the week ah look at looking great um all right Tom where would you like to go uh I'll follow up on my last pick I took Kansas State over seven and a half and we went over the schedule and when I mentioned who wasn't on there I mentioned BYU I mentioned Texas Tech but there was a team I didn't mention because I wouldn't mind seeing this team on Kansas State's schedule this year because this is a team that is near and dear to my heart that I enjoy a program I've long enjoyed but damn it I just don't think they're going to be as good this year as their reputation is kind of propping up their win total at I don't think you can lose your coach of two decades your offensive coordinator a bunch of your roster going to Michigan and then you've got a first-time head coach with a quarterback who flourished in the offense of the offensive coordinator who was who's now gone and we've never seen in anybody else's offense and at the end of the day is like 5-10 and a running back will he still be any good give me Utah under eight and a half I don't think they'll be that good I like it I don't hate that at all yeah so it's the way that I lean I'm gonna wait hey I'm I'm I will say that it didn't make my uh it didn't make my pad it's the way I think the way that I was I went in the big 12 win totals that felt like it was two months ago um I I'm gonna wait I'm gonna wait to see it right you know there's a but the bud summer school you was a little concerning yeah yeah that was not um I didn't come away from that like with a lot of warm fuzzies about you know everything yep uh all right bud where would you like to go let's go to Tom's home state all right and we got a team that is changing conferences here uh also a a late head coaching change and it's time for sick yeah it's time for sicko mode let's go I'm a little bit lower on some of the teams in the bottom of the sunbelt if things go wrong they could be like UMass that's kind of like sicko mode of a sicko mode all right I I very much doubt that striker has this schedule pulled up so I'll pull it up for you guys so this is northern Illinois um which is one of the teams if you get if you google northern Illinois schedule you actually get the academic schedule which to me is a leading indicator that you should bet they're under typically um with the exception of like when Stanford's good so look when they open with Iowa that's not easy they're in a new conference it's a lot more travel they get Illinois state uh they have to go to Arizona they have to go to Georgia state which they could win that they host Air Force a team that I think will be pretty decent this year they go to Wyoming another team that's actually on my list we'll see if I pull the trigger here they host Hawaii I mean who knows Hawaii off the mainland traveling to you know time zones or three time zones uh maybe you get that one at UNLV at San Jose state which is you know not particularly friendly uh but not great obviously uh they host Nevada then they're at North Dakota state and they finish out with a game against UTEP a team I think actually should be a little bit improved this year I I mean three and a half is a is a hard number uh to to go under but I I I this looks like a mess to me with the coaching change and the new conference so go ahead give me the under on NIU three and a half I I'm really looking forward to following the local team in the Mountain West finally a cultural fit for Northern Illinois they just this never felt right being in the mid-America now that we're in the Mountain West we could really really establish who we are Sac State under four and a half kind of feels like the oh and you're in on that one too oh yeah I was I'm not a sicko mode guy but this is a sicko mode play I mean be careful what you wish for because they wanted so desperately to make the jump to the FBS they said you know what we're going to join the MAAC and we'll go ahead and pay for everybody's expenses to travel out west for every game they have in Sacramento I just think this is going to be one of those transition years I don't think this is one of those great stories and it's not exactly a traditional powerhouse like we've seen with James Madison North Dakota State some of those other teams making the jump so I will go under Sacramento State another great fit for the MAAC just perfect perfect replacement for Northern Illinois makes total sense I was looking at Sac State and when they have to play Mississippi Valley State the the beloved Delta Devils like that could be a loss home of Jerry Rice I mean it's a good program you know like it it could like yeah so I'm on uh I am on the Sac State under four and a half sounds like DK is too that's that's any other sicko mode while we're over here in sicko corner I don't think this is sicko mode because they're a traditional MAAC power um but Toledo over seven and a half I could get a coaching upgrade yeah no I do I I mean I think Jason Kendall was a negative coach and I think that he ended up at UConn is a good indication of that like uh nobody did more with less or less with more in in the MAAC with the big edges that he had so um I think they actually have a coaching upgrade there at with Toledo they could beat Michigan State in the first week um and if that happens then you're looking pretty good here so over seven and a half with the Rockets from Rockets to Plains I promised I'd have it for you you know we've got a new defensive coordinator out there for Air Force I think it's going to really shore some things up it when your quarterback breaks their arm and you're running the quadruple option that's going to be a little bit problematic all the latest reports Air Force camp seem to indicate that we've got uh things looking okay as uh Liam Sarka is apparently uh back to go I think that they should be able to have a large bounce back from last year's disappointing four and eight finish I've got Air Force on my pad at seven and a half and I am going to go over I've got Air Force you can get up at six and a half chip I will take it at six and a half let's go lock agreement yeah I mean ever ever since you you turned us on to the the Air Force JV team I've been I've been following boys closely and man do i like what i see love it uh yeah see spencer knows what it's happened seeing tailgate talk about sprinkle some air force to win the conference i mean the conference is getting easier with the way that the mountain west and the pack 12 have realigned did anybody want to get up did it does anybody have a pack 12 win total lock uh yeah no oh good because i will admit and this is this this is a podcast of vulnerability and transparency i was terrified by even having to compute an 11 game schedule i mean this this ain't 1999 you know like i'm supposed to figure out win totals with a magical mystical game where some books are offering it one some books are offering it another i'm i mean bud of course is bold enough to be able to wade in these waters which team have you identified i i like fresno over six and a half this is this is on the 11 game schedule right for them i i've got them at like five wins five tosses and one you know for sure loss against usc i i think like that's a really well coached football team like they're pretty physical they have a little bit better weapons this year i i think six and a half makes sense there if you want to go for non-boise conference title options fresno could be another one where you've got a decent price or san diego state yeah i would say those are the top tier um you're locking that up to be clear he is locking up fresno yeah i can sure um kyle asks do the win totals count the additional game it is truly a read the fine print in your book yeah it's going book by book which is very confusing but could make for a fun you know flex week at the very end of the regular season um all right michigan state under four and a half not a lot of joy in this one so um i'll go ahead and power through it not really sure what's going to happen the fact that we are kind of like hanging on rodney bullard eligibility rulings might be a reflection of the overall display of where we're at with those skill positions around alessio um yeah i just i think it's gonna be a tough first year and just telling telling the kids to sit up straight take their hats off in the music down is not going to be enough for me to think that you're ready to go through a schedule that to my eye has a about a half dozen just get off the bus and you're at a big disadvantage kind of games so i will be looking at a four and eight season for pat fitzgerald i'm going under four and a half i mean i not a lock agreement because i already have toledo so it's basically like in some ways double betting the opener but that's the way i would play that yep uh for uh for gozar we are doing the consensus uh numbers here makes it easier for our record keeping and fun for all of you at home dk where would you like to go um i'll go back to the acc um because you know what i love i love great storyline and i love to kind of be against the grain a little bit carolina over i ain't going that far buddy he doesn't love it that much i ain't going that way but i've heard a lot of people say i'm not going that far i'm not going that far i'm not going that about the demise of clemson and the downfall of dabbo sweeney but you know what i do love a bunch of nobodies a bunch of nobodies because he didn't have no superstars we're just a bunch of nobodies and there's that will be the theme that we will hear for clemson all year long when he's there sitting with holly row next to him and a big win that they come up with and he's talking about you know they had the rest of y'all bus he had that one he's got all his little things this year it's a bunch of nobodies i still think clemson has one of the better rosters in the acc i think his culture is one that i do believe in still we'll get the very best of them even as evidence last year they did not fall completely apart at the end of the season they didn't throw in the towel and i don't see one game on their schedule that they can't win now they obviously could lose a few of them but they are not going under seven and a half so i will go over that one i was kind of picturing in my mind him next to holly row and death valley but we'll have to wait for the locked pot on that one that is one lsu is just thinking about that old miss game and i i am curious to see because i don't think there's a quarterback in the country that we have talked about less or everybody's talked about less or known less about than christopher vizina uh and maybe it's tate reynolds maybe it's somebody else but i just think clemson will be a team this year that will not have the drop off that some people think so i'll go over seven and a half lock get on board the bus i i do not think clemson is the clemson of old i do think eight and four is more likely than seven and five this is a value play for me that bus thing is the lamest entrance in sports right like the rock running down the hill is awesome but the bus around the bus part is stupid yeah yeah so it was byog bring your own guts before roi roy bus and yet the but the bunch of nobodies could be good here's the thing that uh cuts both ways somebody said like oh man isn't he starting to remind you of late area late era spurrier remember when spurrier and dabbo had epic back and forth and the problem is some of the clips that they're referencing for spurrier when he was doing the same kind of thing was right before he quit on the team um so late era spurrier also he cuts both ways you know like it's cute and it's charming but uh you know it's also go ahead but no i was thinking late era mike gundy but yeah that yeah because remember when uh he came over after and was like well quarterbacks couldn't hit the broad side of a barn tackling everybody slipping around like it's a greasy watermelon and then he kind of went on and on and on that was that was right before a tough season for the gamecocks but i'm in general i'm not ready to i'm not ready to bury uh dabbo or the clemson tigers at all for those listening at home a great prompt by a striker who probably thank you for saying watermelon i don't know if i took that watermelon out of the cooler after this weekend oh shoot okay in my mind we weren't using it you know because there's like there was no no no drinks in there okay and i have a little mess clean up after the show hey it's all right you just pour that back in the dirt that thing will decompose and you'll be up some fertilizer let's get the pressure washer out yeah so so far bud has two lane under seven and a half miami over ten and a half texas a and m under eight and a half minnesota over five and a half northern illinois under three and a half toledo over seven and a half fresno state over six and a half i'm on tulsa over five and a half uab over three and a half auburn under six and a half maryland over five and a half sacramento state under four and a half air force over six and a half michigan state under four and a half danny's got south florida under eight and a half miami over ten and a half auburn over six and a half clemson over seven and a half sacramento state under four and a half baylor under five and a half times locked in on navy over seven and a half kentucky under four and a half texas a clemson over seven and a half utah under eight and a half air force over six and a half kansas state over seven and a half dk where would you like to go um i don't know how you guys feel about this but like with certain times like fan bases come at you and they think do you hate their school right just because you might not have a view of their program like they do that's where i've found myself lately with notre dame the fighting irish i mean they're coming up with theories why i hate the fighting irish including getting blindsided by bobby taylor and facing a scoop and score against me at the citrus bowl in 1994 they're like oh this is why he hates notre dame which that game we by the way we did come back and win i'd love marcus freeman like i love my he's one of my favorite coaches to cover i think cj carr is an outstanding young quarterback but they have the highest win total in all of college football at 11 and a half this is a program that has had some stumbles in recent history northern illinois comes to mind uh who was the other mac opponent the year before that marshall but it was marshall it was not it was marshall you're right that they did i know they have a three-game schedule and i don't know which game it's going to be maybe it's byu in provo my man austin collie who i played golf with this past weekend was pretty high on byu maybe it's miami maybe it's smu maybe it's somebody else but there will be a loss on the schedule for the fighting irish give me under 11 and a half i don't hate it it's hard to go undefeated yeah and i do think like we all all of us in this business we just think there's such guarantees of how great teams are going to be and i know they're favored against everybody and they're better than all their opponents it's just not easy to go 12 and 0 striker can you put that kurt signati comment back up on the screen glass houses boys yeah um to fulfill my my complete fan fiction for the season i actually need notre dame to go 12 and 0 but i like your logic i need them to go 12 and 0 and then lose in the quarterfinals remember like that's that's the way that i've set this thing up to be able to to really drive home home the most amount of entertainment. Okay. How about let's talk about ingenuity. Let's talk about creativity. Let's talk about brotherhood. Okay. Let's talk about really understanding how to get everybody on the same page. And sometimes it's a group text, right? Sometimes it's a half dozen felonies. We're going Penn state over eight and a half. Um, I've got the Nittany lions nine and three, 10 and two, maybe not a playoff team because of the strength of schedule, but we're not betting playoffs for betting number of wins that you're going to get. And so when I'm thinking about this team that, as we talked about just earlier this week on the big 10 win totals, uh, it is an opportunity for them to be able to lean on a pretty good talent level that was still there. Maybe not the same. It's 2025, but then offensively being able to have some of that continuity, especially as you get, not just Rocco Beck, but you get chase soul, you get Carson Hanson, you get pieces that are going to be able to really help this team. So I'm going to go Penn state over eight and a half fight, baby. Let's do it. Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight. I mean, look, I, I think that that's a pretty decent hire after what was. Kind of a disastrous coaching search. And I think, you know, Matt Campbell has a good chance of succeeding at Penn state. And I think it's not just Iowa state East, but like I queried my system on this earlier today. If you look at Matt Campbell as a favorite in that, like three to 14 point range, his expectation on the Vegas line should have been 40 wins. He won 34 at Iowa state. Like he's not a reliable favorite as a head coach. And that is what is going to be asked of him at Penn state. Like, can you consistently win the games? You should win. Like I loved him in, in the underdog role. I don't know that I love him in the favorite role. Uh, so I'll fight you on that. And I needed to pick one that was, you know, a little, little heavy plus money to make up for Minnesota stuff. So fight anybody else got, it went away in on this one. Yeah. I'm more on chip. Oh, I've got to play what you got. Bud said, this is Iowa state. East. This isn't Iowa state East. This is Columbia North. I mean, come on. What more do we need to see the Penn state Nittany Lions get things together? The continuity. I mean, Rocco Beck said they're on a group text and they're chating restaurant ideas. Who knows? Maybe they're saying what frat parties to go to. Delta Oops-a-Lon, baby. Sigma Chi, Delta Oops-a-Lon. Matt Campbell. Snow Paterno. Yeah. Snow Pop. Come on, let's go. I do think, and this, to me, we said the other day, we did big 10, uh, wind totals. Is it about the team? It was about the schedule. I think it's both. I think Matt Campbell talked about his intensity. I think they're going to come together. I think they've got the skill positions. And again, I said the veteran leadership of Rocco Beck, kind of being that game manager, making some plays. I liked, uh, Penn state to go over. Are we going to have a bar fight? Yeah, it is. Jumped in. Wait, hold on. Are we doing, uh, Tom, are you going to have a bar fight? Are we going under? No, no, I'm not playing. I'm, I'm out. I'm just saying that's a bar. It's two on one. It's a bar fight. Yeah, it's a two on one classic bar fight. Um, at some point, If I was in a bar fight, I would want Matt Campbell on my side. He'd just be like, yeah, come on. At some point, the story will evolve. It'll cycle out of the news. But, uh, I, maybe like week four, week five, I'm gonna start referring to Penn state players in their weight by kilograms. Like on CFN. Oh, fun, fun, fun. Oh, man. Um, golly gee, you know, let's stick in the big time. I'll go to one of Penn state's most historic rivals. They've got tons of them. Rutgers under four and a half. Just, I, that team lost far too much for me. And we've reached the point now where it's like, there is no arguing that Greg Shiano isn't the best guy. Coach in that program's history. It's just, I don't know if Greg Shiano is capable of getting them just kind of out of the position that they're in where they're going to upcycle some seasons to like seven and five, but most of the time they're going to be in that six and six, five and seven range. And I think this is going to be kind of a down cycle year because I do think Ethan Kelly, man, this was huge for them. I think losing Ian strong hurts them. And I saw some buzz and I shared it with you guys in the, in the chat, Jake, but our friend from the big time net. Work was talking about KJ Duff. Who's a very good player at wide receiver. And he was saying that, you know, after watching Rutgers practice, he wouldn't be shocked if KJ Duff ends up being like a first round draft pick. And I'm not knocking Duff because again, he's very good. It's just KJ Duff looks like a first round NFL draft pick when he's surrounded by the other 20 guys on the field with him at Rutgers. I don't think that's a very good team. I'm going Rutgers under four and a half. I don't know that I think they're a good team. But I'm like, like convicted under on like four of the four or five of the teams they play. So I don't, I don't really want to join. You know what I mean? They won't win their way to their spot. They'll wind up with those spots. Like it, it like, like chips under Michigan state. They catch Northwestern in a great spot. Like they catch Nebraska right in the middle of Nebraska playing all like all those murder teams. There's another, like they get Boston college early, which, you know, is is one that can probably get, I, I can't join you on, on the, or on the under there. I, I, I don't know if I'm going to rush to bed over and I'm just making the show way too long by commenting on all these. Sorry. So how many, I think I can probably, I'll probably go two to three left. So what's everybody, is anybody sitting on a lot that they want to make sure they get down? I've got three left. Okay. Danny, about the same. About the same. Yeah. Okay. We had a funny moment on CBS sports network earlier this week where. I made a mistake. You know, I didn't read all the fine print, something that everyone should do. I would recommend it. The, I thought we were picking teams that were not ranked in the preseason poll that we think could finish ranked. And then we showed up and it was time to do the show. And I realized it was, that could be finished ranked in the top 10. I did the same thing. And I spoke earnestly with my chest about how I thought the Cal bears could catch every break, great break and wind up as a top 10 team. And it was really like, if they make it to the sharp, Charlotte and you're all basically laying out every possible break for chairing. Kiave saga, Politelli, a reworked wide receiver room, Tosh loop boy, getting all those portal players, getting them to buy in on defense, his side of the ball. Well, buddy, I just need to get them to six and a half. Yeah. I feel good about that because I do think that as you stare down a conference schedule that does not have Miami and that does not have Louisville, for example, you do have to go play at SMU. But outside of that, Cal might be a bigger threat to some of the other teams. I mean, I think that's one of the reasons why I think that we're going to be able to get them to six and a half. For the likes of a Clemson or Virginia tech or a pit, then they might be to the other teams. So with the, with having the better quarterback, most times that they take the field with the investment that they had to pull this portal class together and be able to get all on the same page. I like Cal over six and a half. I appreciate ship being out there to protect all of us because last year I was the only one who locked it up in the wind tunnels, but I'm pretty sure we were all under. During our ACC wind total show on Cal and the Cal algorithm was very mean to us all season long. So chip, thank you very much just for having our backs. I got you. I would like to amend my choice for who is most likely to end up in the top 10, by the way, especially after one of TCU's best defensive players got kicked off the team for apparently beating the hell out of one of their like starting receivers. So allegedly, obviously, Kansas State's the obvious answer there. Like it, you know, 11 and one. Type thing. If they run hot on all their coin flips. So great. I don't, I don't mind seeing my, my players fight just shows they care. Now I said, listen, which was the team that had the fight on the plane? Cause I was about to say this TCU team that's beaten the hell out of each other. It's about to get on a plane to Dublin, right? Yeah. The Auburn basketball was Auburn basketball and the plane had to turn around. Yeah. Hey, don't worry, bud. We're sending all that great team chemistry on a long flight from. From Fort Worth to Dublin. Woo. That'll be a, that'll be a joy. All right, Danny, where would you like to go? I've got a little bit too much chalk, like a little bit too much heavy juice in my favor. So I need a little bit of plus value here. I will go. You guys are on the Utah under in large part because you were worried about some of the loss of the coaching, right? I mean, it's great coach. And every single player. Started a single game on their, on their line of scrimmage. Yeah. That is not a good thing either. Well, there's a lot there. Um, but I also along the same lines, think that Michigan fell into one of the better coaches in college football. And while I think some fans are upset, he doesn't hate Ohio state as much as they would like him to. I think that's cause he's just worried about week one and then one week at a time throughout the season. I think he inherits a really, really good. Good situation in Ann Arbor. Uh, this to me is a little bit buying into Bryce Underwood, which I was not doing before we talked to Kyle Whittingham and he looked at. confidently in the face and no coach has ever lied to us before in the history of college football but i do believe yes that's true but i do believe that they will optimize bryce underwood and jason beck the new offensive coordinator will get a little bit better out of them again they were a 9-1 team last year with a quarterback that had 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions i think they cleaned that up somewhat i think they're gonna have a backfield that runs the football i think they're gonna be physical on both sides of the ball just like they were at utah under kyle whittingham give me over eight and a half on the michigan wolverines i think i'm already under on two of their opponents so like that's just kind of too related but i lean that way yeah kyle whittingham also famously never ever lied about player availability no rest in peace all right yeah um all right tom uh all right i'm gonna go for a team i'm high on a team that i think is expected by this total because as i've mentioned james franklin's problem at penn state was his inability to beat top five teams well damn it the acc doesn't have any top five teams at least not outside miami so he's just gonna run rampant give me virginia tech over six and a half gobble gobble gobble up those wins i mean if he's six and six there's gonna be some people around blacksburg that are like james come on i was looking at some of their over eight and a half stuff the other day like not that i really i don't really want to bet six and a half i think there's a lot of potential variance there but also like what if crunk meyer is really good i don't think that's a crazy thing to suggest i don't think so either he played good last season like a limited sample but there was some encouraging stuff right he showed some point like what what if that's a guy that's like an nfl guy maybe he is maybe he's not i'm not saying he is but i think you know i don't think he's a good guy i don't think he's a good guy i don't think he's a good guy they're one of those teams where if you kind of play with the power rating and they're like six or seven points better than you think because all of a sudden they got an nfl guy quarterback then then you kind of get into some ranges there that are you know pretty nice i got one left i've got two okay um i got i think three all right go bud upstate new york we are taking the cuse over four and a half wins um i think what they got justin ross simmons back at receiver which helps to fill a hole uh with with the ruling i mean they were playing a lacrosse player last year at quarterback you know i i think their defensive line is is kind of decent somebody has to win some games in in the bottom half the acc not everybody's going to go three and nine two and ten four and eight um i think there's some spots on the schedule where they can get people you know like i don't think at pit is like a stone cold you know loss for them at uconn i mean like if we'd done the show three months ago like like you you can't win the game if you don't win the game if you don't win the game you can't win the game if you don't win the game if you don't win the game like just the absolute i would just pick one game and just unload it on it and called it a day but that got bet to death already um you know like are we sure louisville's awesome like at carolina you get boston college which could have a new head coach by the end of the season i i like syracuse to get to five fran brown taking five showers minimum let's go you're gonna get those showers and wash all right uh bud you said you got three laps so let's let's let's let it fly oh iowa stayed under four and a half oh um yeah yeah i i know this already got bet some so apologies but i do think that like there's a chance that they're like the worst team in the power four this is a like it's not good to like attack your off season late and broke and i think they're like they're obviously very late to the coaching change which was not their fault and you know they've never really had money to spend and that to me like i i think like um i still think there's an edge there lock agreement whole baby just i just i i don't think that i mean you look at the roster yeah that that could be the worst team in the power for it they could be this year's oklahoma state like i like the past rushers actually i feel like if i'm trying to be nice here i think the past rushers could be decent um i don't know that i love 12 games of jalen rainer even though like i don't think the big 12 is great but still like uh against the better sunbelt teams that was oftentimes pretty questionable and yeah uh under for iowa state just further trolling pete oh oh all right dk is pete still an iowa state guy he's still a corn guy yeah all right i'll go one more this one's kind of bet at your own risk but i do like the fade popular sentiment you know what else i really like humility like it kind of bothers me when people are cocky and as much as i love the guy and i think he's an incredible football coach life will sometimes humble you kirk signetti has not been afraid to go after anybody out there i mean he is just shots fired every which way and i still think they're a really good football team but their win total is 10 and a half which means you only can slip up once and i know the schedule is not that tough but it is tougher than it's been in recent years and i will remind you they had a couple games last year like iowa like penn state i mean the big 10 championship game where fernando mendoza bailed them out of some trouble in some bad situations and while josh hoover may be really good i still need to see what josh hoover is going to be is he going to be that guy in those situations i think there's two slip-ups on the schedule ohio state at michigan usc at washington and who knows maybe it's another opponent from the big 10 that they play that we don't see coming still have a lot of pieces to replace and i know they got a couple pieces back on the defense from the five for five ruling i don't like to do it but i'm gonna say indiana finishes the season at 10 and two plus wouldn't it be a good time to go back to the great just to hear kirk cignetti up there making the case for the indiana hoosiers at 10 and two and he promised they don't cry he said i know i know he did he did 10 and two i think they are too expect maybe a few years ago that it was their first year at 10 and two but now that they are a part of college football's royalty i think they do get in but i'm gonna go under 10 and a half for the hoosiers all right my final one it has been six hundred and twenty-eight days to this moment right right now is 628 days since the last time the tennessee volunteers beat the vanderbilt commodores you know and unfortunately i think the doors are gonna keep extending that streak on through december because on the final game of the regular season it might be blaze it might be jared curtis but i'll tell you what it's definitely going to be cedric cedric alexander pounding in that touchdown on the tennessee vols for what will be the sixth win making vanderbilt bowl eligible yet again under clark lee in the postseason building up that program bandy commodores over five and a half he did it gotta have representation representation matters it does barton representation matters that's right no taxation without representation uh all right so yeah vandy over and uh we're good here we're all cleaned out any last last call i got one all right and it is it is a last call play i had to watch far too many conference usa games last year because of the twitter tip and i had i had to lock in and it was it was not enjoyable experience and one of the teams that i had to watch far too many times was a team that i don't think was very good i don't think it was very good i don't think it was very good i don't think that operationally they they made a lot of mistakes i also think there were a lot of extenuating circumstances and that they were playing at a stadium that wasn't actually their home stadium for pretty much the entire year but i am not high on the bearcats with a k of sam houston i think if you look at conference usa and you look at the schedules i would argue theirs is definitely on the harder end of who's going to be facing what in that league sam houston under three and a half i i don't know why i'm doing this i don't know why i'm doing this i don't know why i'm doing this to myself because again it's going to make me pay attention to sam houston and conference usa but i just you know when when the value is there you can't pass it up oh drama means special here good god all right that's that's there all right bud last call wyoming over five and a half oh very friendly schedule friendly schedule like i i'm looking at looking for ways to put a fade of yukon into this show without like betting that extremely already beat up yukon number and they may need this to make a bowl and i think yukon's gonna have a pretty bad season and the last game of the year yukon has to go out to laramie um i i think they can win seven to be honest um like they get in iu they go to san jose they go to north dakota state which you know should still be a good team they get hawaii you don't have to go to the island they're at again, like that's one they can get they're at colorado state to open i like i mean i don't know if they're for sure getting that but that's not like a lock loss northern colorado you know they they're on the road at utep which could be tricky you know new mexico could be tricky i like over five and a half here so you're saying it would be winnie like winzy winzy winzy is gonna be windy in laramie love it as a and to answer joe's question in the chat i we're not doing any alt line stuff on this and i think we already kind of talked about like how we would play florida state if we wanted to you know like yeah on the on the edges on the tails yeah yep all right bud has two lane under seven and a half miami over ten and a half texas a and m under eight and a half minnesota over five and a half northern illinois under three and a half toledo over seven and a half fresno state over six and a half penn state under eight and a half syracuse over four and a half iowa state under eight and a half minnesota over five and a half northern illinois under three state under four and a half i wyoming over five and a half i'm on tolts uh over five and a half uab over three and a half auburn under eight and a half maryland over five and a half sacramento state under four and a half air force over six and a half michigan state under four and a half penn state over eight and a half cal over six and a half vanderbilt over five and a half danny he's got south florida under eight and a half miami over ten and a half auburn over six and a half over seven and a half sacramento state under four and a half baylor under five and a half notre dame under eleven and a half penn state over eight and a half michigan over eight and a half and indiana under ten and a half tom scott navy over seven and a half kentucky under four and a half texas a and m under eight and a half clemson over seven and a half utah under eight and a half air force over six and a half kansas state over seven and a half rutgers under four and a half virginia tech over six and a half iowa state under four and a half and sam houston over six and a half austin under three and a half we got lock fights on the board with auburn and penn state a couple lock agreements as well if you're listening at home youtube.com slash cover three has got you covered with the full spreadsheet i'm sure we'll have graphics as well gentlemen we are back and it feels so good important announcement very very important announcement we will be blasting this out on the social channels just to be able to let you know we are going to have a new schedule during the regular season and since next week is week zero the regular season starts next week so starting next week big game breakdowns is moving to tuesdays that's one day earlier for you to continue breaking down those big game breakdowns so mondays will be a punt for the review tuesdays will be our big game breakdown thursdays 11 a.m as i said nothing changes there then saturday nights instant reaction to all the action from the day so again the big adjustment there that you need to be prepared for is that tuesdays is going to be the new day for big game breakdown we want to give you all more time to be able to get into the x's and o's and the storylines before we get into those best bets on thursday and you can follow him on twitter at tom for now you can follow him at danny can follow him at flight 83 you can follow me at chip underscore patterson gentlemen thank you very much thank you