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Speaker 3Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, rushing! Deep left field! This is right back! Walk them off! Got a fantasy question? Email fantasybaseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Speaker 1The 2026 season is over! And for the first time ever, the Milwaukee Brewers are your World Series champs. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball Today on Thursday, October 29th. I am Frank Stample. Joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we will eventually get to a third base recap. We'll look back at preseason ADP, biggest bust, biggest breakout, and who finished top 12 at the position, kind of. I'm going to skip around because I don't want to talk about players we've talked about on other position lists. So it's kind of like a top 17 or 18, but we'll get there eventually. The World Series is over. The Brewers took it down 4-1. The World Series is the series final. And William Contreras, MVP of the World Series. He went 8-for-21, hit.381, 4-RBI, threw out four runners attempting to steal bases, and an absurd amount of overturned ABS challenges. Well-deserved. The heartbeat. The soul of the Brewers. William Contreras. Love it.
Speaker 4You know, there's an elephant in the room. Re-William Contreras. But on this day of celebration, I'm not going to bring it up. I wasn't going to bring it up. Because there's an elephant in the room for the Rays. I was going through my starting pitcher preview yesterday, which is on the website CBSSports.com. You might have heard of it. Great website. And the Rays won't trade Drew Rasmussen, right?
Speaker 1Well, now we might as well bring it up. How Rays and Brewers of all of this would it be? Right? If the Rays traded Drew Rasmussen and the Brewers traded William Contreras after they get to the World Series.
Speaker 4They are both expiring contracts. Yeah. The last time the Rays made the World Series, they traded Blake Snell. Rasmussen has one year left. I think he's 33 years old or 31.
Speaker 1I mean, this is typically what they do, right?
Speaker 4Both teams. I hope the Brewers. It would be dumb if the Brewers traded William Contreras. And I know Chris said the Brewers were dumb for not trading for Tarek Skubal. Whatever. They still should have done it. I don't care. I feel like the
Speaker 5Brewers are probably best off continuing to be the Brewers. Right. And what makes them the Brewers? Is that they make moves like that, right?
Speaker 4Yeah, I guess. But they don't have another catcher. There's not another catcher in the system. Jefferson Cuero? It's been like three years since that guy looked like a prospect.
Speaker 1Gary Sanchez, also a free agent.
Speaker 4Yeah. Look, I get your point. And yeah, maybe it doesn't matter and they can just keep doing this. But they shouldn't trade William Contreras. That would be a bummer if they did that. That would be a bummer.
Speaker 1You're the one who brought it up. I mean, I get what you're saying, Scott. But if we allow our emotions to take over, it would just feel wrong if they traded William Contreras.
Speaker 5I want to shift gears here because I feel like this is an inappropriate conversation for the day. And I want to say, that was a weird celebration, wasn't it? Like, they didn't seem to know what to do with their hands, I felt like. After they clenched, like, a few guys were like, oh, we're going to do the jump up in the air thing. But then they saw, like, the majority weren't. And so they're like, oh, I guess we're not supposed to do that. And so it kind of descended into hugs and handshakes. Like, it was.
Speaker 1They also set off the confetti at a weird time, too.
Speaker 4So did you guys see that apparently at some point during game four, the Tropicana Field bleacher, not billboard, scoreboard? Is that what they call them? Yeah, scoreboard. And congratulations to the Brewers on winning the World Series. Did you guys see this? No. It's possible. Like, this is. In this world we live in, it's possible I fell for some AI stuff. But I saw a picture that someone was like, oh, they set off the congratulations image too early after Cooper Pratt's home run because Cooper Pratt had his two best offensive games of the season in the final two games of the World Series. You could have made a case for him as the MVP based on that. But. Yeah. I mean, look, the Brewers and Rays don't have a lot of. You know, the game day ops folks don't have a lot of experience with this kind of thing. So. No, that's fine. I think it's okay. Daniel Vogelbach was having the time of his life. He was. Trevor McGill was saying all kinds of things on the broadcast.
Speaker 1There was like two minutes where it was just bleeped out and I couldn't hear anything that he was saying.
Speaker 4It was so funny because it went from like Cooper Pratt, who just like sounded like he's never said a swear word in his entire life. Like, I think he dropped a frick at one point. And then McGill just shows up and he's like, no, we're getting the FCC involved on my part of the broadcast. It was great. Yeah. That was great.
Speaker 1Cooper Pratt, by the way, I think it was six straight hits from games four through five. And obviously the go-ahead home run in game four, but ultimately the Rays wound up tying it up and winning that game. But yeah, I think you could have made the case for Contreras, Cooper Pratt, Jackson Trio had a bunch of hits in the World Series. How about Aaron Ashby, who was just dominant all postseason long in shutout innings, five hits, three walks, 20 strikeouts. And part of me does wonder if the Brewers will at least think about Aaron Ashby as a starting pitcher once again, just given how dominant he was and over like multi innings and things like that. So it's an interesting thought.
Speaker 5Yeah, it is. It is an interesting thought. But they are the type of organization that, that needs a lot of starting pitchers over the course of the year as, as I guess most do these days. So it wouldn't surprise me if they did that. It, it, I brought it up on the last podcast, Aaron Ashby tweaking his change up before, like in the middle of the playoffs. So he was sort of a new creation. You know, the one we saw during the regular season was good, but he wasn't like, uh, elite reliever good. And he became that, of course he has a history starting and he has, I think a deep enough arsenal that they could try him in that role. Again, a lot of his appearances were multiple innings during this, uh, this playoff run. So yeah, I, I would be interested in seeing that no indication yet whether that's going to happen,
Speaker 4but it could also don't discount the possibility that they trade one of the closer caliber relievers that they have. And he gets in that discussion because yeah, Trevor McGill for sure. McGill and McGill are both closer caliber relievers. I think McGill probably like fourth or fifth year. Um, yeah, I think,
Speaker 5I think this upcoming year is his last year and then three base probably
Speaker 4getting close to arbitration eligible. Um, so yeah, I, I wouldn't be, it's giving a little bit of Louie Varlin vibes. Remember he just, he pitched in basically every game of the blue jam. Jay's post-season run last year, Ashby was better, but it was a similar, like just, it wasn't even a break class glass in case of emergency. It was just every day is an emergency and we're going to go to Aaron Ashby. So, um,
Speaker 5according to baseball reference, a rebate won't be a free agent until after the 2030 season. So he's probably not a while eligible this year, but Miguel seems like a strong candidate to get traded.
Speaker 1And that's kind of been the cycle for the brewers too, is straight away that reliever final year of the deal. They did it with hater. They did it with Devin Williams. So it is a possibility they could do it with McGill as well. And then perhaps Abner or rebate steps in there. Jacob Mizurowski was the winning pitcher in the clinching game here. Five and two thirds shutout, two hits, one walk, only two strikeouts, but obviously got the job done. He left the game with calf cramps, just kind of weird that he left multiple starts this year with cramps in his lower legs. I understand that like he drives off of them very hard to like make the velocity that he has. Right. Uh, but, Earlier in the season, it was hamstring and quad cramps that he dealt with. and obviously left this game with calf cramps uh i mean we should talk about just the innings jump last year was 129 and a third total and by the end of the postseason it's 193 and two-thirds innings for the mids so that is a pretty substantial jump up you
Speaker 5know when i always get calf cramps is when i'm driving on a long road trip like it always happens and then so i go through a stretch where i can't bend my foot at the ankle to switch from the brake to the gas pedal i have to i have to like lift your whole leg bend my knee and it's kind of like a stompy thing i'm stomping between the two pedals until i get normal feeling back in my calf so i can relate to recurring calf cramps it's no it's no fun
Speaker 1gatorade guys any any wedding i've ever gone to my calves have been destroyed for like a whole week afterwards but i mean you don't
Speaker 5want to be too high hydrated on a road trip right true hey you try to try to limit the liquid i'd rather
Speaker 4be properly hydrated and have to stop one extra time than get calf cramps that feels probably be more than
Speaker 5one extra stop but you know once i get over hydrated it's we don't need to get we don't need to go much further into that i think i think i think people get it fair enough
Speaker 4i can't say i've ever had that problem uh somebody's saying i need to
Speaker 5use cruise control which i've tried i i just i don't feel comfortable with that like i can keep it going for a couple minutes but then inevitably i'm creeping up on somebody it's like okay like what was the point of this how
Speaker 4fast does scott drive on the highway on a road trip because i i could see temperamentally kids in the car you feel like a 65 miles an hour guy i was gonna say 60 ish yeah but i could see because i'm to be clear i'm not denigrating people who drive i'm not i'm not
Speaker 5a speeder does anybody go 65 on the interstate like i go i know that's the speed limit generally but
Speaker 4nobody does that i well look i'm not gonna admit to breaking the law don't out yourself scott you don't know who's saying nobody does that i'm driving five to eight miles per hour over the speed limit generally well that's that's my that's my i'm not i'm not trying to burn gas you know
Speaker 1fair enough uh last couple points here on the brewers yes they just won the world series they also have the top prospect in baseball coming in jesus made plus the baseball america minor league player of the year in andrew fisher who just hit 48 home runs with a near 1100 ops the minors he also struck out 33 of the time so um kind of a three true outcomes type player but 48 home runs is 48 home runs so the brewers great this year awesome all around and they have more help on the way not brewers related on the other side well documented for brian baker but i don't know that we've actually talked about it on this podcast velocity way down in the postseason and even as the season has gone on so it's fastball velocity by month 96.7 97.1 97.5 96.2 95.9 94.5 in september and then in the playoffs i mean there were a few games where he was below 93 miles per hour and then in the playoffs i mean there were a few games where he was below 93 miles per hour on his fastball so breakout season awesome closer this year for fantasy brian baker and for real life but it is at least a little bit worrisome that you know his velocity dropped off this this much
Speaker 4yeah i started working on my uh rp review article which will be on cbssports.com great website on uh probably friday maybe tomorrow
Speaker 5who knows um you've passed me i started out ahead and now you've passed yeah well i get i get stuck on starting start starting pitchers take me forever man it's well so i'm ranking almost 200 of them i was looking at
Speaker 4last year and i'm not yeah because you're doing rankings i'm not really like i've done like a very basic ranking but i'm i'm recapping and looking at it the off season it's it's a less involved process uh but i've realized that last year i had done like a couple of supplementary pieces about the starting pitcher position because like last year we had that big debate about who the number four starting pitcher should be um and it was a big debate about who the number four starting pitcher should be um and it was a big debate about who the number four starting pitcher should be um and it was a you know like sanchez and uh yamamoto and sure sure sure and then i had another piece about all the second year pitchers or the rookie pitchers i wrote about like 25 guys and this year it's not nearly as compelling like there just aren't as many discussions about starting pitcher at least not yet we'll get there but there haven't been as as many obvious like hey what's the what's the deal with this guy discussions about starting pitchers so i just kind of zoomed through it yeah anyway about relief pitcher which is what we were talking about um we were talking about brian baker right um yeah i kind of when i first did my relief pitcher rankings at the end of the season um i just kind of like mindlessly put him like sixth and then when i actually like looked into it a little deeper today i was like oh i don't think that makes sense at all actually i'm i think he's closer to like bottom top 12 if that at all because yes he's got a lot of potential but he's got a lot of potential and he's got a lot of potential breakout season he had a 144 era he was awesome his strikeout rate actually went down this season and his walk rate actually went up and it was okay because he limited hard contact to an absurd degree 272 x woba 318 x well bond contact that's awesome over 70 innings or 68 innings whatever it was 62 innings that's a pretty noisy metric and the skills that we typically chase with relievers are really there for brian baker in the same way that they are for mason montgomery to name another breakout or louis varland or you know whoever and so that was one of my takeaways here is moving brian baker down even before like even without taking into account the velocity decrease in the playoffs but then on top of that i think there's some concerns here that brian baker isn't the elite closer he looked like
Speaker 5this season well here is a an this is a case of fun with sample sizes right because brian baker you say his strikeout rate went down let's just do k per nine it was 10.9 per nine last year and he was running about there for most of the year uh through august it was exactly 10 per nine and then it just collapsed in september it was 3.2 per nine in september which consisted of eight eight and a third innings so he struck out three and eight and a third innings in september which caused k per nine rate to drop by a full k but it was eight and a third inning so like it if it didn't happen that critique wouldn't exist september did happen but it was eight and a third innings so well but then the playoffs happened his strikeouts were also way down
Speaker 4in the playoffs yeah he only had like six strikeouts in the playoffs i think and nine innings from the other guy so yeah i just the skill set isn't quite as strong and obviously when we're talking about a 62 inning sample size i don't think it makes sense to do the like up until because like you could also do you know through the end of may he had an elite strikeout rate but june was six strikeouts and eight innings and then i went back july was 10 and then august was really good but like yeah i i just think on the whole the skill set's not nearly as strong as a 144 era would make you believe there are a
Speaker 5dominant closers that i don't think you have to see the glass half full on baker next year uh if i could pull up if i can pull mine up very quickly here i know we have uh obviously mason miller and uh and and uh um no what's his name it sounds like kate sith kade smith kade smith i i i always think of cody allen remember him
Speaker 4that was a that was a guardians
Speaker 5pitcher yeah that was the guy at one point in time all right so i pulled them up now and i got so we got mason miller we got kate smith we got josh hater we got joan deron we've got louis varland we've got mason montgomery uh those are all unquestionably elite right i think so yeah but that's six it's our seven elite chapman except he's ancient yeah but sure he's he's uh did you say andres muñoz i did not he i know it was a rock but i i think he's still
Speaker 1elite um bednar if he goes back to the
Speaker 5yankees maybe yeah jacob latz was elite but i think that's another
Speaker 4one to be skeptical of um yeah i have brian baker ahead of latz i have him ahead of edwin diaz who could be elite i have him ahead of uh the two braves guys because i don't know what the the roles are going to be there one of the uh russ el glacies is a free agent um you know what
Speaker 1would be cool though like honestly trevor mcgill getting traded away to a team where he's just the clear-cut closer and then abner oribbe being the clear-cut closer would just be awesome for fantasy i think your rebate is brain closers your
Speaker 4rebate would be in that discussion if he was a closer i think both obviously rice el glacies and robert suarez are both a little older but i think they'd be in that discussion if they were both closing um edwin diaz might be back yeah
Speaker 5better um i don't imagine anybody's going to take him ahead of brian baker next year but yeah i think he's going to be in that discussion if he was a closer i think he's going to be in that discussion if he was a closer i think he's going to be in that discussion um it's going to be real
Speaker 4close for me in the rankings uh but adrian moda hon could be a closer somewhere um grant taylor we don't know what the role is going to be like so it's i think baker is a fringe top 12 rp right now but not someone i'm super excited about drafting for next season i would say
Speaker 1all right once again congrats to the milwaukee brewers and their fans 2026 champs and now we are without baseball until question mark march 25th let's that is let's hope so let's take our first break when we return a quick look at preseason adp at third base then we will recap the position we'll do that right after this delivered
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Speaker 1welcome back fantasy baseball today recapping third base and according to the fan graphs player rater we had four third basemen provide 20 or more dollars of value 13 provide 10 or more dollars of value uh and we're going to be talking about the third base and that was including an injury riddled jose ramirez just one year ago we had four with 20 plus so same amount only six with 10 plus so that number doubled so there was more depth overall at the position here at third base this past season if you look at cbs points leagues we had three with 500 plus fantasy points 12 with 400 plus and just a year ago that was two and seven so again just highlighting uh more depth here among the third baseman and let's take a look at season third base adp this is according to fantasy pros the number one first baseman jose ramirez with an adp of 5.4 consistent first round pick junior caminero with an adp of 16.6 that was followed by jazz chisholm who still had third base eligibility then manny machado austin riley michael garcia bo bichette who gained third base early on the season eugenio suarez alex bregman matt chapman noel v marte and kazuma okamoto so like second base uh according to the fangraphs playwriter just five of those 12 that i just mentioned actually finished inside of the top 12 so not as predictable we did have some injuries some underperformance um and some unexpected breakouts i think it's bust at the position i take your pick there is no shortage here at third base but i i would probably lean towards austin riley the adp inside of the top 60 and then he finished 229th overall career low 54 ops tons of strikeouts it's it's been a rough go for austin riley obviously this is the worst that we've seen from
Speaker 4him yet yeah like noel v marte was sent down to triple a on like april 12th yeah but in a way that actually is probably better than riley who just kind of stunk all year and you probably never dropped him like i don't think his roster rate ever got down below 90 percent um and i boy i think we're done here i i just this is i think three straight years of decline now for him and you could make some arguments about why the decline had happened the previous couple of seasons you know he he played through a an oblique injury i think in 2025 and he had a wrist thing in 2024 and well he was healthy in 2026 and he was just terrible the whole season like i think there was maybe like one good month like maybe august was pretty good um but i think we're done here i just this is i think three straight years of decline now for him um but there's really nothing to be optimistic about with austin riley at this point he still hits the ball very hard yeah but not hard enough optimism he doesn't hit the ball nearly hard enough to make up for how much he strikes
Speaker 5out anymore unless he unless he regains his old approach like his approach has definitely fallen off he had the highest chase rate since his uh since very early in his career before his full swing first full season so like yeah he was he was pretty messed up at the plate and after three straight years there's no reason to be optimistic he's going to bounce back but i don't think it's impossible for him to uh obviously lose tragically losing his personal hitting coach around the time this this rough stretch started for austin riley i think probably has a lot to do with it but playing off that theory that means his issues are more related to approach and mechanics than physically him not being capable of doing it
Speaker 4anymore maybe like he's going to be 30 very soon and his average exit velocity has dropped two years in a row it was 93.3 miles per hour in 2024 it's 91.3 miles per hour this year it's dropped one mile per hour each of the following each of the last two seasons he's gone from 463 expected um which strikeout perspective that
Speaker 591.3 mile per hour average exit velocity is 84th percent it's
Speaker 4still very good but he doesn't like he doesn't do enough else well to make up like yes he hits the ball hard but the other skill set is not daring like the the approach is really bad it's never been good and he always like the thing about austin riley was he always had to be outlier good when he made contact to make the whole thing work and so yeah 91 miles per hour is really good 398 expected well-bound contact is pretty good i would guess that's like 75th percentile or something but when you don't walk and you strike out way too much and like it's just yeah they're they're like he's not like they're what has done me does well but there are still things lots of
Speaker 5guys do well who aren't great hitters what what has done me does well but there are still things lots of guys do well who aren't mean because i i still found a way to get him 50 player but i i still got a found a way to get riley 15th in my third base rankings for next year um which to put that in perspective because i know it's just throwing a number it's it's behind casey schmidt and beau bachette it's ahead of bryson stott and michael garcia do you have
Speaker 4him ahead of colson montgomery oh way ahead of like colson
Speaker 5montgomery somebody have buried in my rank i can't make sense of that
Speaker 4because like colson montgomery did the thing you're hoping austin riley could get back to do he's like yeah i get it he strikes
Speaker 5out like 40 percent i get i get it but
Speaker 4he also hit 35 home
Speaker 5runs this year right like the worst version of riley strikes out like 30 at the time and
Speaker 4montgomery's like 40 right but riley hasn't hit 20 homers since
Speaker 52023 yeah i'm not sure colson montgomery will ever do it again as bad as he looked in the second half because he hit yeah i the number he calls him montgomery hit 163 in the second half yeah i'm not sure colson montgomery is really bad but
Speaker 4he was a lot better than austin riley this
Speaker 5season yeah because he was you know he hit some home runs in the first half
Speaker 4but austin riley didn't hit home runs at
Speaker 5any point right but we're looking forward and i i don't have faith that colson montgomery is going to do that again yeah i would just bet on
Speaker 4the 24 year old instead of the 30 year old you
Speaker 1know i i probably would just not bet on either of them sure i agree but
Speaker 4yeah if i'm gonna rank one i'd rank colson montgomery ahead of us
Speaker 5i i guess i'm coming out now is like i am the biggest i'm a big Colson Montgomery hater for next year. I couldn't get him in my top 20 at third base. I get it, but. I put Jordan Westberg ahead of him.
Speaker 1Oh, I don't see that at all. I'm okay with being lower on Colson Montgomery. I just think maybe Austin Riley should be a few spots lower as well. I really think, Scott, you highlighted his personal hitting coach passing away a couple years ago. And I really, unfortunately, think a lot of things coincide with that event happening, unfortunately. And there's not really much to be a point to under the hood that says that Austin Riley is going to get better. The biggest breakout at the position, I think it's a tie between Miguel Vargas and Sal Stewart. We spoke about them extensively on our first base recap. Kevin McGonigal had a great season as well as a rookie. I mean, he's runaway AL Rookie of the Year. We'll get to him a little bit later on. The sleeper at the position, the one that nobody saw coming, party like it's 1999, baby. Nolan Arenado turned back the clocks, first season in the desert, 30 homers after his previous two seasons combined, 28 home runs. So make of that what you will. I don't really know.
Speaker 4It doesn't make a lot of sense. Like the underlying numbers were better than they were in the previous couple of seasons, but they were still really bad.
Speaker 1And like he pulled the ball in the air even more. I mean, he really leaned into the like Esau Paratus approach.
Speaker 4And that might be sustainable, but. I think we have seen how thin the margin for error here is. And I think Nolan Arenado has got to be someone you draft as a corner infielder at most as good as he was last season.
Speaker 5He is somebody I have behind Riley, but I had of calls in Montgomery. I have Nolan Arenado 18th for next year.
Speaker 1All right. Fair enough. All right. Let's get into the third base recap. Taking a look back at the top 12 from this past season. That is according to the fan graphs. Play a rater. They measure based on the five by five roto categories. I will also mention CBS points leagues and again, doing third base a little bit differently. So it's not the exact top 12 list. I'm skipping over players. We've already talked about other positions. So Miguel Vargas, Al Stewart, we spoke about those guys in first base. Josh Chisholm. We spoke about him at second base. So the list is going to be a little bit wonky, but yeah, just a heads up on that. Number one, no surprise. You know who it is. It's going to be a little bit of a surprise. Junior Caminero hitting in the trap. No problemo. He provided $30 of roto value. Second in total fantasy points at third base. 3.4 fantasy points per game. Hit 276 with 42 homers. 200 runs plus RBI. He improved his plate discipline. He nearly doubled his walk rate. Best bats be in baseball. Scott, one of the best four category producers in fantasy, Junior Caminero.
Speaker 5Yeah, he's great. And he's 23. So he's in for a lengthy reign at the top of this position, I feel like. I like that he nearly doubled his walk rate from 2025. It's a sign he's now among the most feared hitters in the game. I think. I think. I think. I think. I think. Position scarcity is the main reason he's like a cinch first rounder for next year. Since he isn't much of a base dealer. And even at a points league context, you know, his point per game average might not be as high as you think. Given how good he was, it was 3.37. Miguel Vargas, for example, was 3.55. But having said all that, Caminero is the player I want most of the position. Regardless of format next year and will be a first rounder regardless of format.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think that is agreed all across the board. Second rounder this past season. Probably somewhere in that, you know, mid first round in a road over categories league. Maybe it's more like a back end one, two turn type in a points league is Junior Caminero. Let's move on to the number two second baseman. And it actually was Miguel Vargas. We'll skip on past him. Sal Stewart was number three. And that brings us to, Alex Bregman, the tale of two seasons. But the man got it done. $20 of Roto value. Third in total fantasy points. 3.3 fantasy points per game. In the first half, he hit 241 with nine homers and a 696 OPS. In the second half, 303 with 19 homers, a 1010 OPS. Massive pulled air rates in August and September. He was up over 30%, which were his two best months of the season. So that makes a lot of sense. Chris, if I had to guess, I think Bregman probably takes a slight step back, but I think the floor remains very high for Alex Bregman.
Speaker 4Yes. Yeah, I like the final numbers this season were basically identical to the year before. Now, the experience of having him on your roster across both seasons was never quite the same. He was amazing in the first half of 2025 and then pretty bad after he came back from that quad injury. It's kind of the same thing. It was kind of the opposite in 2026. He was pretty bad for the first couple of months and then was unbelievably good for like the last three or four months. But the final numbers are right on point for both seasons. 25-ish homers, 90-ish RBI, 90 runs. Useful, but not great batting average. That's probably who he is. He is, you know, a little bit older. You know, he's going to be 33 next season. So there's always the chance. I think you have to account for some of the things some regression possibility here, but he's very good. I don't think you want to make the mistake of saying, ah, from, I don't know what, June 19th or whatever day it was that Alex Bregman was good.
Speaker 5Final 43 games, 317 batting average, 17 homers and 1103 OPS. It was 17 homers in 43 games is probably the main stat you want to.
Speaker 4Yeah, I think the turnaround starts like early July. But yeah, the power really starts coming. I mean, he only had four homers in July and then he had 12 in August. But I think the point is you don't want to. I don't think it makes any sense to do the from X date on with Alex Bregman. We know who he is. He's 33 years old. Like, you don't need to do that. Take the numbers as they are. Maybe account for some regression. I think he's solid as like the sixth third baseman off the board-ish. You know, if you want to quibble with Manny Machado, I think you can do that. But I would take Bregman over Machado. I think he's good. I think he's very good.
Speaker 1Yeah. Again, I think higher floor, deeper league play, and only, I mean, guy you know who's going to post, he's going to play rock solid. Probably 250 to 260, 25-ish home runs. I think that's all pretty fair for Alex Bregman. Up next, we have the ageless man we were just talking about. That is Nolan Arenado provided $16 of Roto value, seventh in total fantasy points at third base, 2.8 fantasy points per game, hit 255 with 30 home runs after just 28 home runs in 2024 and 2025 combined. He had a monster September when his pulled air rate was up to 44% for the month. He, Scott, he just leaned all the way into the ESOC Paratus thing and it worked. Yeah. You have to expect he's going to take a step back. Will he remain healthy? I mean, it was a great season this year. I don't know how much we can bank on that
Speaker 5moving forward. No, and it was very late developing how good the season was because 16 of the 30 home runs came in the final two months. And that was after consecutive years of failing to reach even 20 homers. And his average exit velocity for the year actually fell. It was third percentile. So yes, it was a very ESOC Paratus type performance from Nolan Arenado, which to be fair, that's always, how he's excelled. Like he, he hits the ball harder than Paratus and doesn't quite pull it as much as Paratus. But he's of the same style of hitter where he doesn't hit the ball exceptionally hard and relies on a very high pull. That's been his whole career, Arenado. It just took it to a new extreme. And like it might work, he might get sort of a second act here in Arizona. He's back for another year in 2027. But you can't bet on it.
Speaker 4Yeah, I mean, and the other thing I would say is the difference between 25 homers and 30 homers is not very much. It's one homer a month, basically. But that's also probably probably 8 to 10 RBI and 8 to 10 runs. And so if he has the same season, but he hits 250 with 25 homers and 75 RBI and 72 runs, I mean, that's useful. But it's, I think the margin for error with Nolan Arenado's skill set is extremely slim. And hey, that is also true of Isak Paredes. And I think Isak Paredes is one of those guys wherever he presumably ends up getting traded because I think he's a very likely trade candidate is going to play a big role. Like, I've seen the Yankees link to Isak Paredes a lot and that wouldn't be a great, like, it's very short down the left field line to be clear. Um, but it gets very deep. Yeah, it's like 319 down the left field line. It just, but it goes out a little bit less center. Very, very deep in left center.
Speaker 5I gotcha. So, yeah. That might work, though, because it's such extreme pull tendencies for Paredes.
Speaker 4Yeah. His expected home runs at by park there are a little better than Wrigley, but not much. But, you know, that stuff doesn't always work out. But it's always the problem with Wrigley is it got deeper at the foul. It was like
Speaker 5three fifty five
Speaker 4there. But I think it's with both Paredes and Arnauto and like Bregman to a lesser extent. Is it's a it's a slim margin for error. And I think you've seen that with Bregman. I think you've seen that with Arnauto. You've seen that with Paredes. You know, these guys have had really, really good stretches and really, really bad ones over the past couple of years. And there is, to a certain extent, a lot of risk that you're left holding the bag with any of them.
Speaker 5The yeah, I mean, the distinction with Paredes is Paredes always does it and it's venue dependent. And so the venue could ruin him. But if if. If he's if he stays with Houston or goes someplace that's still favorable to his swing, I I would just pencil him in for it again. Sure. When Arnauto, you know, for him to find success with it suddenly at age 30, 36, is it after a clear downward turn?
Speaker 4Yeah, he'll be 36 next year.
Speaker 5OK. Yeah, it's that to me is is something I. Wouldn't count on him repeating. But this is this distinction between third base and second base and why I ultimately think third base comes out ahead is because you have players like Arnauto, who I don't think anybody's going to be enthusiastic about drafting. But you see reason for hope there when you you get outside the top 12, certainly the top 15 at second baseman. And there isn't the same hope. There isn't the bounce back Jordan Westberg or bounce back Matt Chapman or bounce back Austin Riley. There's nothing like that at second base where you have chances at getting a lottery ticket type pick at third base.
Speaker 1Yeah, it's at least deep with intrigue, I would say, about third base. The expected home runs by Parker, according to StatCast for ESOC Paratus, by the way, in his career, he has 117 home runs in Tampa Bay. That was 110 in Houston. That would be 136 in Yankee Stadium. That would be 89.
Speaker 4So. So that's the thing. The thing about Tampa is it's not a great hitters park, but the dimensions are
Speaker 5actually very favorable, very short, very short at the
Speaker 4foul pole and short, short power alleys, too.
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Speaker 1Welcome back. Fantasy Baseball today. Recapping the top 12 at third base from this past season. And up next, we have Kevin McGonigal, who has third base and shortstop eligibility for 2027. The favorite. Four AL Rookie of the Year. Provided $15 of Roto value. Fourth in total fantasy points. 3.2 fantasy points per game. He hit 278, 376 on base with 18 homers, 97 runs scored, 12 steals. Huge volume play, 707 play appearances. That was fourth in all of baseball. I love McGonigal and Hedgehead Points Leagues. And I don't want people to take this the wrong way because he's still super young and obviously he can develop. But Scott, where do you see? Where do you see Kevin McGonigal getting better in a category or Roto League for next season? Right away, you know?
Speaker 5Yeah, that's where I'm at with him. Like a tremendous real-life player to have a seven-win season as a rookie. Incredible. Incredible asset there for the Tigers. But look at how he performed in the five categories. Which of those is a true plus? Runs. Batting average, you know, I guess is a plus. But it's not like. He was amazing, 278. It was good. But everything else is, you know, 18 home runs, 12 steals, 72 RBI. He's just treading water there in those three. So for him, for McGonigal to be a real standout in Roto and categories leagues, he needs to gain somewhere. Stolen base is an easy place he could gain because a lot of it is just choosing to run more. 72nd percentile sprint speed, he could. He wasn't a huge base stealer in the minors either. So I'm not necessarily counting on that. For power, average exit velocity, 87.8 miles per hour. That's 30th percentile. Pull air rate was above average. I don't know. Maybe those could get better as he gets older and spends some more time in the league. But it's not a slam dunk. So. I actually have. McGonigal behind Bregman for next year. Now, it still comes out to sixth at third base because there aren't a lot of standouts here. But I don't know that for this specific scoring format we're talking about, McGonigal himself is a standout unless we see growth in areas that are hard to predict at this point.
Speaker 4I really wish we had early season, early career Freddie Freeman stack cast data. Because that is. That is, I think, the comp for Kevin McGonigal as a hitter. Obviously, look. Freddie Freeman is 6'4", 220 pounds. Kevin McGonigal is like 5'9", I think. But just in terms of the combination of contact skills with the line drive skills and the approach at the plate, it just. Like, I think Kevin McGonigal. Freddie Freeman for most of his career has been like. Ideal of like a 70-grade hit tool. And it took a while for the power to develop. If you remember, he didn't hit 25 homers in a season until he was 26 years old. There were some 23 homer seasons. He hit 21 as a rookie. So it's, you know, that was better than McGonigal.
Speaker 5It was a different league environment too when he first broke in.
Speaker 4Less power. But I just. I think the power is going to get there. And I think like Corey Seager is another comp where just like the all-around hitting, obviously, is going to get there. And I think power will develop. Maybe it won't be, you know, Freeman had a 38-homer season. He's had a couple other 30-homer seasons. Maybe we don't get the peaks in quite the same range. But like 25 homers for Kevin McGonigal? I think he's going to do that eventually. Is he going to do that next season? Given what we saw this year, I think that's probably asking a lot. But I would bet on more than 72 homers. I would bet on more than 12 steals. I think I would bet on better than a 278 batting average. I just think he's so young, he's so talented, that I think there's going to be natural growth even if the ceiling is a little capped. It's not a situation. Like we've seen a lot of top prospects have really good rookie seasons and get pushed up into the first-round range. That shouldn't happen with Kevin McGonigal. I don't think it will. I think he'll be like 40-ish maybe. And, you know, that'll feel a little bit like a reach, but I think there's definitely room for him to do that. Like, if he goes 25-20 next year and scores 105 runs and hits 285 or 290. And we're talking about him as
Speaker 1like a second-round pick for next year.
Speaker 5Yeah, and I don't think anyone should be surprised, but it does feel wishful to take him there thinking, oh, he could do this. Sure. In theory, he could do it. But if you're going to bet. But you can't really put a timeline on it. You can't really put a timeline on a young player making that kind of leap. So to say, I'm going to push all my chips in on this being the year. Well, if you're playing in a dozen main event leagues, maybe I get doing that in one of it just to diversify. But if you're the average listener who's playing in one or two leagues and really can't afford to miss, I don't think I'd do it.
Speaker 4Yeah, like if I was going to do that, I'd rather do it with Connor Griffin, who I think just has a much more fantasy-friendly skill set right now, at least in a roto league. Points League, obviously. Point. Points League McGonigal is basically a. You can make a case for him as a second rounder right now in a points league.
Speaker 1Next up, we have Kazuma Okamoto, who had a very impressive rookie season. Even if it wasn't what we expected, like the shape of the production, it still was an impressive season. It was a very streaky season as well. $14.4 of Roto value. He was 11th in total fantasy points at third base. 2.6 fantasy points per game. He struck out quite a bit, so it does bring him down in that format. He wound up hitting.232,.33 homers,.92 RBI. He ran much lower strikeout rates in Japan, and we saw the strikeout rate come down in the second half. It was like 25%, 26%. Chris, this is just a guess on my part, a hunch right now, but I think he trades in some power for contact next year, and we see more like a.250 hitting, high.20s homer type bat out of Okamoto rather than the hitter he was this past season.
Speaker 4Possibly. It's possible that there was just a really steep learning curve. The thing that I would be concerned about is, yeah, he cut the strikeout rate. He also wasn't good in the second half. He hit.223 with a.723 OPS, and the underlying numbers were he had a.325 expected WOBA in the second half. His actual mark for the season was.328, so the tradeoff that happened wasn't, he wasn't worth it. He wasn't better because he hit for more contact, and he's going to be 31 years old. If we were talking about a 27-year-old, I think I'd be on board with, yeah, okay, it was an up-and-down season. There were some really good stretches and some really, really bad stretches, but on the whole, arrow pointing up. With a 31-year-old, I kind of think, even with a player who only has the one season under their belt in the majors, I kind of think you just take it for what it is, and maybe it'll be a slightly different distribution, of production next season, but I think he's going to look more or less like he did this season.
Speaker 5Okamoto was the hardest player for me to rank at this position because based on the second half he had, based on the way the league adjusted to him, I think the fall-off in the second half, which was, it was a fall-off in everything, but strikeout rate, basically, and I guess batting average a little bit. That was, the league adjusting to him, force-feeding him a lot of breaking balls, maybe. Maybe having his number. Yeah. I don't have a good feeling about Okamoto next year. Like, I don't like the way this is trending. I agree. But I look at those numbers, 33 home runs, 92 RBI, 81 runs, how far can I get away with pushing that down at this position? And to the lowest I was able to go, that's not the lowest I was able to go, but the lowest I decided to go was ninth.
Speaker 4I have an eighth, but I share a lot of your concerns and it's just, Max Muncy's older and Bo Bichette just kind of doesn't look like he has any juice left and Michael Garcia did nothing and I don't know where Isak Paredes is going to be playing and I don't know where Curtis Mead, like, the guys that I rank behind him, I just have concerns about also, so it's like, yeah, whatever. He had 33 homers last year. Let's just rank him there, you know?
Speaker 5I know the one guy I have ranked ahead of Okamoto, that you don't, based on our conversation last podcast, Zach Gelof. Oh, yeah.
Speaker 1Yeah. I do think the second half conversation is a little bit overblown for Kazuma Okamoto. He actually finished quite well in September, hit.256 with five homers and.844 OPS. His ex-WOBA in September was.374. His ex-WOBA in August was.342. So, I think the second half struggles are a little bit overblown. It was July and August were really bad. Yeah. I mean, on the surface, the August.342 ex-WOBA, like, you would take that from Okamoto, right? The exit velocity picked
Speaker 5up again in September, too. I was wondering if that remained down and that was partly what fueled my pessimism. A lot of times, I remember my broad takeaway about a player and then I forget the specifics behind it. But that's interesting. Yeah, a little bit of a bounce back in September. So, that makes me feel a little bit better about ranking Okamoto ninth for next year. Not that I want to move him up beyond that,
Speaker 4but sure. The one thing I would point out is his infield fly ball rate and his fly ball rates tracked very closely to one another. And it does seem like he had to sell out for power in a lot of ways. And maybe he won't have to as he continues to get adjusted, but it doesn't feel like there's a super complete skill set here. It feels like there are inherent trade-offs that he has to make at the Major League level. But it's only one season, right? It's still a relatively strong. It's still a relatively small sample size. But given his age, I don't. I think you probably just take it for what it is.
Speaker 1And the profile did definitely lend itself to a lower batting average. No doubt about it. Like, between the strikeouts and how much he put the ball in the air, definitely. But, again, this is like so far off from the player he was in Japan. I just. I wonder if there's a little. a little bit of a trade-off in skill set. We'll see. Up next, we have Isak Paredes, who I was worried about the playing time coming into the season. And life finds a way. Provided $13. Roto value, sixth in total fantasy points at third base. Three fantasy points per game was tied for seventh. He hit.262,.360 on base, 25 homers, 94 RBI. Slow start, but from June on, he was basically himself. The plate discipline remains stellar. You guys brought this up earlier. The only thing we really have to worry about is if he gets traded and where. Honestly, for his value, staying at Houston is by far the best.
Speaker 5Yeah, it's a great place for him to hit, but we know he can hit it up other places, too. It really comes down to what that left field fence looks like. But Houston's a great fit. He's done everything they could hope for there, which is why I'm hopeful they'll hold on to Paredes, but it's possible they don't. And so we'll just have to see. That's my only real concern, though. Otherwise, I would just copy and paste the same stat line for next year.
Speaker 4Yep, if I knew he was going to be in Houston, he'd probably rank seventh at third? Third base? Yeah. I'd take him ahead of Okamoto, and Machado is tough, but I think I'd go with him over Machado.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think it's pretty close between those two, but yeah, somewhere in that lower ceiling than those two,
Speaker 5I feel like. It's very predictable, though, so it's just a trade-off there.
Speaker 1Yeah. Up next, we have Max Muncy of the Dodgers, of course. He stayed healthy for a career-high 149 games, and he was rock solid, provided $13.4 of Roto value. He was 12th in total, fantasy points at third base, 2.7 fantasy points per game, 252 batting average, 348 on base, 29 homers, and 838 OPS. He wasn't as impactful on a per-game basis. He's getting up there in age. He only starts about half the time against lefties. I think that was, despite his numbers being good against lefties, I think that's on purpose. The Dodgers trying to keep Max Muncy healthy by just not playing him every day, which obviously worked this past season. Scott, another one where I think we mostly, we know what to expect. It's a lower batting average. It's great OBP, 25 to 30 home runs. It's just a matter of how many games we get out of Max Muncy.
Speaker 5Yeah, and that's a big matter. Yeah. He has tended to sit more and more against lefties, and he's pretty old at this point. He's 36 now. 36, yeah. So he is at an age where he's not as good as he used to be. He's at an age where he's not as good as he used to be. Where decline is to be expected. It's not just maybe he'll decline. It's, yeah, you should expect him to take a step back just because he's old. Now, he did bounce back against left-handers. His splits against them were pretty good. So maybe the Dodgers will look at that in the offseason and say, you know, we could stand to play this guy more against lefties next year. But I wouldn't bet on that, particularly given the age factor. And so Muncy, for me, comes in 11th for next year. And Roto directly behind Okamoto and Paredes.
Speaker 1You have to worry about, again, like, will he stay healthy, the age, all those types of things. Obviously, like, counting stats should still be good in that Dodger lineup. But yeah, you do have your concerns as he gets up there in age. And perhaps we have some concerns for this next player as well. That is Manny Machado. Looks like the age is starting to catch up here. $12 of Roto value. Eighth in total fantasy points. 2.7 fantasy points per game was tied for 13th. He hit just two. 17. Did have 30 homers. 91 RBI. Five steals. The 2.17 batting average. Looks like it's mostly fueled by a lower BABIP. But even his XBA was only 243, which was, I believe, a career low. Big drop in quality of contact and the expected stats. Chris, I think we just, at this point in his career, had to just reframe our expectations. And to me, that's lower-ish batting average. 240 to 250. Probably still gets to, like, 25 home runs. And decent counting stats because he's going to play every day.
Speaker 4Yeah, I mean, I think this is something to keep in mind with a player like Muncy, who is three years older than Machado. But sometimes a drop-off happens all at once. And Machado is someone that hadn't really shown any signs of skills decline until he did. You know, like, the average X velocity dropped nearly three miles per hour this season. On the other hand, I would point out that Machado is. the kind of player who has turned around before in his career. There have been signs where we've been like, okay, the decline's starting to happen for Manny Machado. And then he figures it out again. So I don't want to write off the possibility that he can still bounce back a little bit. If he doesn't, I think the skill set is fairly similar to Kazuma Okamoto. I think Manny Machado ran a little cold in 2026. I don't think he's a 217 hitter. But I think he's probably more like a 240 to 250 hitter. And that's, I think, to the point where it's detrimental, but not a drag the way 217 is.
Speaker 5No, of course, because look at the rest of the stat line. That's what struck me about when I dug into Manny Machado is like, okay, there are some signs of diminishing skills here. But in the stat line, it was pretty much just reflected in the batting average. 30 home runs is typical. 91 RBI, typical. 82 runs, typical. And still very good for this position.
Speaker 4Yeah, the steals are probably gone.
Speaker 5Steals are probably gone, but he hadn't had 15 even since 2015. So it's not like he was a major contributor in that category. It's the sort of thing where, like you were saying, batting average being as volatile as it is, his expected batting average was actually 243. So I would bet on him batting better than 217 next year. And if there's no evidence that the other skills are going to slip, maybe they do. I mean, it'll be another year older, but I feel pretty okay with Manny Machado next year. I don't think you'd
Speaker 4feel much better than okay, but I think okay is a fine way to feel.
Speaker 5I would be satisfied with him as my starter next year, provided I'm not reaching.
Speaker 1Yeah. Interested to see where the ADP winds up for Machado. I mean, for most of his career, even this past season, he was, I mean, the latest, probably a fourth round pick, but I think third round pick and a lot of drafts. How far does that drop? Is he around 75? Is he closer to 100? I think that's a pretty good spot to buy back in.
Speaker 4I would guess in the NFBC leagues, especially, which is where the first ADP comes in and kind of sets expectations. He's going to be pretty low, like not probably still top 100, I would guess, but it's going to be a significant drop off because people are going to be very worried about that batting average.
Speaker 1And we talk about this a lot. We have talked about this a lot with pitchers, just Hall of Fame guys that, you know, let's not doubt them later into their career. Obviously, if you see signs of decline, and we have some signs of that here with Machado, but, you know, with Hall of Fame caliber bats, like we just saw Nolan Arenado bounce back out of nowhere. We didn't really have a sign of it happening, but it just happened. And maybe sometimes things like that could happen to players who are different. You know, those Hall of Famers, first ballot Hall of Fame type players who I think Manny Machado is going to be. So, yeah, chance that he does bounce back. Skipping over a couple of names here. Jazz, Bryson Stott, Zach Giloff. We spoke about those. So next up on the list is Brooks Lee. That's right. Brooks Lee. Quiet little breakout season. $9.4 of Roto value. 10th in total fantasy points at third base. Only 2.6 fantasy points per game. That was tied for 18th. He hit 253 with 24 homers, 83 RBI, 8 steals. Mostly an accumulator this season. He does not hit the ball hard at all. The expected stats hate him, but his pulled air rate jumped to 23%. Scott, do you think that jump in pulled air rate is enough of a reason to explain this kind of mini breakout here for Brooks Lee?
Speaker 5I think it explains what happened. You say expected stats hate him. They hate him. Because of one weird trick to finish the game. The click-baity headline. And that weird trick, can he repeat it with the pulled air rate? That's, I think, the big question. And even if he does, even if we give Brooks Lee the benefit of presuming he'll repeat the weird trick, it's more adequate production than good. Like he compiled his way into being. I know he won't say it, but he compiled his way into being. wherever he technically finished, if we include the guys who were skipping. Top 12, I think, is what he ended up being. It was compiling his way to the top 12 with a skill set that doesn't look especially durable. So I'd bet against Brooks Lee being as good as this next year. And if he ends up being as good as this next year, I don't feel like I miss out on that much. So I have him 19th at third. At third base, which is actually. It's behind Arenado, it's behind Riley, Michael Garcia. It is ahead of Jordan Westberg, at least, who Chris apparently hates. But only 19th, Brooks Lee.
Speaker 4Yeah, you were saying like, well, can he repeat the trick again? And my thought was almost, who cares? I feel like he just had a season where everything went right, and it was 72 runs and 83 RBI and 600 yards. 131 played appearances, you know? Like, it's just. He was present, and he wasn't actively detrimental. I think that's about as good as it gets for Brooks Lee, though.
Speaker 1Yeah, he feels like a better deep league play. I think he's going to play. He was actually terrible defensively at shortstop, but once they moved him to third base, he was really, really good defensively there. And he was a former top prospect. Like, he's going to play, and he has positional versatility. So I think that aspect helps in a deeper league, but yeah, shallower leagues, if you're shooting for upside, I don't know that you're. You're missing out on much here with Brooks Lee, who was actually 14th at third base. So with all those other names I'm excluding, he moves up to ninth here, but yeah, he was actually 14th. Next up, we have Bo Bichette, who was actually tied with Brooks Lee. And a slow start with his new team, but he did pick things up. $9.4 of Roto value, 14th in total fantasy points at third base, only 2.5 fantasy points per game, hit 260, 18 homers, 76 runs, 78 RBI. He struggled his first two months, and mostly looks like it was just bad luck during that time. He was still hitting the ball really hard. Interested to see if he opts out of his Mets deal, just because it's a lot of money that he's making on a per year basis, but it is also a very weak free agency. So I think there's a chance, but I actually think we get a little bit of a bounce back here with Bo Bichette. Not anything crazy, but you know, 280, around 20 homers, 80, 80 in the runs and RBI. Like, yeah, the batting average could bounce back a little bit.
Speaker 5Yeah, the batting average could bounce back. That would be my main hope. He's not much of a contributor for power anymore, but he's not a zero. Final four months, he hit 284 instead of 260. So that would be the hope of him sustaining something like that next year. It pushes him out of the top 12 at what's a pretty thin position, but. Not for Chris. Okay, where do you have Bo Bichette, Chris?
Speaker 411th. Okay. 11th. It's a soft 11. But yeah, I think the skill set is still strong enough that like 260 feels like a bat closer to the floor for him as a batting average. I think it was just kind of a weird season. I would bet on a bounce back across the board for Bo Bichette. I don't think he's a difference maker anymore, but I think he's still
Speaker 5going to be pretty good. 11th, you said? I'm guessing the ones I have ahead of him that you don't are Zach Geloff, for sure. Yes. Also, Curtis Mead and Casey Schmidt. I have 12th and 13th.
Speaker 4Yeah, Schmidt's a tough one. Mead, I could be talked into Mead above Paredes.
Speaker 5It's just. Above Bichette, you mean?
Speaker 4Or above Bichette, yeah. But, you know, it's a two-spot difference in the rankings between the two of them. So it doesn't take a lot.
Speaker 5There's no risk here. It's, again, downside. Versus upside argument. Because I think Bo Bichette is more of a downside play, a floor play now at this stage of his career.
Speaker 1Sure. Next up, we are skipping Mauricio Dubon. He no longer has third base eligibility. So that would bring us to Jose Ramirez, who was actually 17th at third base this season. He fractured his left handmate, and that derailed his season. Only gave us $9 of Roto value. Still had 3.2 fantasy points per game. His overall number is not great. He still ran a bunch. He had 37 steals. But I still. I can't get away from this. His numbers pre-injury, they look bad. But under the hood, still hitting. Like, average EV, 90.3 miles per hour. 280 XBA, 444 X slug. If you look at 2025, when he hit 30 home runs and had 40-plus steals, it was 88.9 average EV, 284 XBA, 446 X slug. So his numbers pre-injury were very. Very, very similar to 2025. And I think the hand just completely derailed things. And then he looked like himself in the postseason. He hit two homers. He had an OPS over 900. Like, I understand we don't really want to bounce back. We don't want to buy bounce backs for a 34-year-old. I am, man. I still think he's a second-round pick.
Speaker 5Yeah, I think Jose Ramirez did the most to improve his 2027 stock of anyone this postseason. Maybe Aaron Ashby, if he does wind up in a prominent. next year starting or closing. Maybe Edwin Diaz, if there's helium for him again. But Jose Ramirez, going into the postseason, he had two home runs for the entire time back from the injury, right? And then he hits two in the postseason. Impressive home runs, too. You're right about before the injury. I had no concerns about Ramirez. But then he had the injury. And then he came back from the injury and was so bad. And the hammock bone injury, it's not abnormal. We brought this up before for a player's power to be suppressed for a while after returning from that injury. But that wasn't the case for so many others who returned from the injury this year. It's harder to make that argument. And then Ramirez is 34, and his power was all red. He was barely skating by in terms of exit velocity to produce the power he did. So how much could he afford to give up there? Before total collapse? And that was the concern. I don't know. Definitely the postseason helped relieve those concerns. I went into the postseason ranking Ramirez fourth at third base for next year. I'm tempted to move him up to third, passing Sal Stewart, still behind Junior Cominero and Miguel Vargas. That's where I'm at with Ramirez.
Speaker 1I haven't started ranking yet, but I will have Jose Ramirez ahead of both Vargas and Stewart. As great as those guys were this year, it's just like the track record. Really how much I trust those numbers before the injury. I'll get Jose Ramirez back in the second round this past season. But with the age, I get it. I get some people wanting to fade him. I get it.
Speaker 4It's the age. And I think it's perfectly reasonable. There's not a lot separating Ramirez, Stewart, and Vargas. Certainly the younger guys were better last year, but Ramirez is a future Hall of Famer who has the long track record. And Frank, like you said, I think the underlying numbers before the injury tell you that there was not a skills decline here. Maybe the injury just kind of forever knocks down the talent level, but I'm pretty skeptical of that. So I think I'll take the discount.
Speaker 5Was the injury masking a skills decline? I think is the question. Like, yes, you could.
Speaker 4Was the skills decline happened alongside the injury?
Speaker 5Yes, yes. And it's like.
Speaker 4But it wasn't there before the injury.
Speaker 5Right. Just the timing of that long absence. And having surgery on his hand. And maybe he was destined to fall off at age 34 anyway. And the timing of it may with the surgery again, that didn't seem to affect the other hitters that had it this year as much as Ramirez. And, you know, a lot of times you see advances in how the surgery is done and, and problems that were associated in past years, maybe aren't as much going forward. So there were a lot of, there's just a lot of noise there. And given the age and given the thin margin skill, and in terms of how he impacts the ball, I don't know that you could automatically assume it was just the injury. However, I am definitely strongly leaning toward it being just the injury for Ramirez.
Speaker 4Yeah. I'd be on board with maybe it's only 25 homers instead of 30 to 35, but he also still stole almost 40 bases last year. So. Yeah. I, I, I just think the skillset is strong enough that he any price outside of the first round, I think is a, is a discount you should be happy to take.
Speaker 1All right. The last name that we will talk about today. I don't think we need to spend too much time on him. It is Ezekiel to Ron. Of course it is. His second, third shortstop and outfield eligibility for next season. He played well. He earned a career high, 153 games played this season, about $9 of Roto value 17th in total, fantasy points at third base 2.5 fantasy points per game. He hit two 60, 17 homers, 83 RBI, 12 steals. Nice season. He did overperform his expected stats by quite a bit. He's really good defensively. I think he's earned a starting job somewhere. Second or third base. We'll see what they do with Josh young. They also have Sebastian Walcott coming very soon. And I wonder if that can push Duran back into a utility role. So there is some risk. I think he's a lot like Brooksley where it's like, a good player to have in a deeper league where you can move them around. And it's like a solid high floor skill set.
Speaker 4A lot of Duran's value in 2026, not that he had a bad season, but a lot of his value comes from the fact that he was eligible for different positions like that matters for a player Raider. Like they're, they're going to give him extra credit for that. And that matters. Like that does help your fantasy team. It's awesome to have a guy playing as well as Duran did, who you can, you can slot in at every single position except for first base and catcher. That's really valuable. He's probably not going to be this good next season. And so I think the best thing you can say for him is he allows you to carry a short bench. And that's, that's not a bad thing. Like that, that's not a knock on him. If he hits two 50 next year with 15 homers and 10 steals, but he's eligible everywhere. And you can, you can just kind of run like you're, you want to stream starting pitchers and have a ton of options. You can just run like a one man bench and it's Duran and you can just have him be first up at four different positions. And that's super valuable, but not someone you should actually plan on starting anywhere.
Speaker 5And the, how valuable it is depends a heck of a lot on the format too. It's a lot more valuable that multi-eligibility in a 15 team league than a 10 team league. It's a lot, it's a lot more valuable in a daily lineup league than a weekly lineup league. And, and although
Speaker 4I will say it's really valuable in it. And even just a 12 team points league, that's such an awesome player to have as your one. Cause like it implies, it assumes that you only have one bench player and you're not like playing for upside on the bench.
Speaker 5Right. But you just, if you need, if you need to replace a guy at any of the positions, Duran's eligible, there's probably somebody better on the waiver wire who could do it. Yeah. Yeah. That that's why it's not that valuable in a shallow league. Like he's, I, I only have Duran and I agree, Chris, that I, I think we probably just saw his, the best version of him offensively this year. And it was what? 15, 15 potential. I just, I kept finding guys. I could slot ahead of Duran at third base and he wound up being only 33rd for me next year. That's reasonable. Yeah.
Speaker 1No, I think deep league play for sure. I think draft and hold, play again. Like if you play in one of these crazy 50 round draft and holds on NFBC and you just, you have finite bench spots and you need to have flexibility in season, that makes a lot of sense to have Ezekiel Duran. But you know, in your standard 10, 12 team home league, I just don't know that he's going to matter all that much. Again, that was Ezekiel Duran. If you want to hear way too early, third base rankings for next season, that will be on our FBT express episode. But of course these guys also have articles that are on the website already. Scott has an individual third base rankings article for next season. So, Chris has an article with all of his rankings for next season. So if you want to check those out, make sure to do so. CBS sports.com slash fantasy slash baseball or on the CBS fantasy app. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. We will be back in next week. Also happy Halloween. See you next week.
Speaker 11Bye. Bye. Haremount podcasts.
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