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Speaker 3Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasybaseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Speaker 4It was kind of a weird year for shortstops. Let's talk about it. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball Today and welcome to. November! I am Frank Stample, joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, it is our 2026 shortstop recap. We'll take a look back at preseason ADP, the biggest bust, biggest breakout, biggest sleeper. Who finished top 12 at the position? Do have some news items too that I also want to get to here, so packed show. Chris, how we doing? How was Halloween? What's going on?
Speaker 5Good! It's been a. I'm taking advantage of the offseason, so I went to like two concerts and two broadcasts. I went to Broadway plays last week in addition to Halloween, so I'm going to take the next few days to recover before we go to First Pitch Arizona, which will also be exhausting.
Speaker 4Did you also hit the lottery to be able to do all these things?
Speaker 5No, I have a friend who's like, apparently teachers can get like discounted Broadway tickets. Nice, all right. And so I, you know, we, we, we just, we, it was a last minute thing. I saw Book of Mormon 15 years late, but. Delightful. I've heard it's awesome. I saw six very catchy tunes. I don't know anything about that. And yeah, that was good. Nice. What'd you, what'd you guys dress up as for Halloween? My wife and I were icons of American art. She was Andy Warhol and I was Bob Ross. So yeah, it was a good time.
Speaker 4How about you? We, of course, we dressed up as characters from Little Nicky, an Adam Sandler movie. I'm sure everybody remembers. Everybody recognized us. Yeah, of course, everyone did. And man, if you have a picture of you as Bob Ross, we've got to get that up somehow.
Speaker 5Here, yeah, let's. That is so great. I'm holding the phone up to the camera. It's pretty good. It was pretty good.
Speaker 4For those watching on YouTube, you get a nice little visual there. Here you go. This is what you get on my end here, Little Nicky. I mean, this is very niche stuff, so I don't know. It's excellent. who's going to know what this is. But yeah, for those watching, you just got a little glimpse of some Halloween costumes here. Anywho, let's jump into the shortstop. Recap, the position definitely took a step back this past season. According to the Fangraph's Player Rater, we had four shortstops provide $20-plus of Roto value, only seven with $10 or more. The year prior, those numbers were 6 and 14. So again, you see that in the lack of depth here at shortstop this past season. If you look at CBS Points Leagues, we had three shortstops with 500-plus fantasy points. We had 12 with 400-plus. The year prior, it was 4 and 15. So why. Why did this happen? There were lots of injuries. There was underperformance. Think about names like Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Trey Turner, Mookie Betts, Geraldo Perdomo. It is a position that's kind of aging as well. Yeah. You know, Corey Seager getting up there. He's dealt with a lot of injuries. So, you know, moving forward, Chris, I feel kind of mixed about the position. Obviously, you still have your studs up at the top. You have a couple of first-round picks in there. C.J. Abrams took a huge leap forward. You have some young guys that we expect to do big things. Obviously, Connor Griffin's going to be an exciting one. But I think there are some questions here as well.
Speaker 5Yeah, although I guess if you want to feel a little better about the position, I'm looking at Fangraph's top 100 prospects that they updated just before the trade deadline, I think. And let's see. 1, 2, 3, 5 of the top 11 and 9 of the top 20 players are shortstops. That helps. And, like, Franklin Arias is probably going to be up, if not on opening day, pretty early. Leo DeVries, Jesus Madé might be a little longer. Eli Willits, maybe he's more of a 2028 guy. But Sebastian Walcott, like, we expect, like, George Lombard to be better. Rock Kalowski could be up next year. There's a lot of, in addition to, you know, Colt Emerson and Angel Hanao. And I think the position's fine. It's definitely not. It's not as proven as it's been in years past. And like you said, you know, Lindor, Turner and Betts especially have, you know, I guess they haven't all held the shortstop position down for the better part of the decade because Betts wasn't shortstop eligible for much of that. But these have been superstars for a long time in fantasy. And at some point, yeah, these guys are going to take a step back. I think in Lindor's case, it seems less clear that he's taking a step back. But obviously, we'll talk. We'll talk about that, I'm sure, at some point during the show. But Betts and Turner, I think we've seen a step back. It's not surprising. And maybe there's, you know, a little bit of a fallow period. But given the young talent at the position, given the young talent in the minors, I think it's going to be fine.
Speaker 4Yeah, I think so, too. I do think some of these shortstops coming soon will help quite a bit as well. I'm not sure how long they last at shortstop. They might move on to other positions. I feel like. Even for, like, Jesus Mata, I think he's more likely that he's going to play third base. It'll be interesting to see what the Rangers do with Sebastian Walcott and Corey Seager. I haven't looked into, like, Seager's defensive metrics. I know they were really good two years ago. I think they weren't great this year. Weren't great this past year. So, I mean, they could potentially move Seager off of shortstop. So, some questions there. But when they first get called up, they'll still have that shortstop eligibility. So, that can obviously help. Let's take a look back at preseason shortstop ADP. And this is according to Fantasy Pros. Bobby Witt Jr. was the number one shortstop draft. Drafted with an ADP of 3.6. Ellie De La Cruz was also in the first round. Followed by Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Trey Turner, Zach Netto, Mookie Betts, Geraldo Perdomo, CJ Abrams. Imagine that, man. Like, those guys were going eight picks apart. And you took Perdomo over Abrams. That changed a lot. You're not thrilled. That changed a lot for your fantasy season. Then, Corey Seager at number 10. Bo Bichette at 11. And then, Jeremy Pena was the 12th shortstop drafted.
Speaker 5That kind of highlights it. You look at this group of 12. And, okay. Relative to this time last year, I feel better about Pena, Abrams, and De La Cruz. That's probably it, right? Like, Bobby Witt, it was a disappointing season. I think he's more or less held steady. But, pretty much ever. Like, I guess Netto, it was a mild disappointment. But, he didn't have a bad season.
Speaker 4Yeah, those are definitively the only three that you feel better about.
Speaker 5Yeah. And so, I think that kind of tells us. And, look, a lot of those guys are on the wrong side of the aging curve. So, I think at, you know, it's not terribly surprising. Even if we didn't necessarily see it coming.
Speaker 4Yep. According to the Fangraphs Player Rater, six of the top 12 drafted in ADP actually finished inside of the top 12. So, slightly more predictable than second base and third base was. The biggest bust at the position, I think it's Gunnar Henderson with an ADP right around 15. He finished 205th overall. I think there's a case to be made for Lindor, who was the third round pick. And, he finished 389th this past season. Obviously, missed a lot of time. Had that calf injury. But, he just didn't run much this year. I think that was mostly due to the injury. But, let's talk about Gunnar Henderson here for a second. He has not been the same. This is two years in a row. I guess two and a half years if you look back at the second half of 2024. After the season, we found out that he was playing through a wrist issue for the second half. But, he's had injury excuses. The past two years. The steals came way down from 30 to 10. The Orioles just ran less as a team under Craig Albernaz. It was his first season managing. They were 25th in steals as a team. And, then just digging in, the quality of contact was way down. His isolated power over the past two years is 172. His first three years, 236. So, I don't know. We're at a very weird time in Gunnar Henderson's career, Chris. Because, he's like 25, 26. You wouldn't expect that he just fell off. Maybe the injuries are legitimately the excuse. But, he hasn't performed like a first-round player since the first half of 2024.
Speaker 5Yeah, I mean, that's the key thing. The first half of 2024, I've brought this up multiple times. But, 956 OPS, 47 homer pace in the first half of 2024. The second half of 2024, 799 OPS, 23 homer pace. 2025, 787 OPS, 17 homers. 2026, 715 OPS, 24 homers. I do think. we have to at least consider the possibility that the elite version of gunner henderson that we thought we saw or that we did see in 2024 but that we thought was going to be here for a while might not have been real it might have just been he got really really hot for a couple of months and he's somewhere closer to being an 800 ops bat now if he's stealing 25 bases and hitting 25 homers and you know you can live with that it's not a first rounder but it's a very solid starter last year he wasn't even that and that's the thing that i can't really figure out because the the underlying numbers also took a step back um his expected wobo was down to i believe a career low 321 he still hits the ball pretty hard it was an 89 mile per hour average haze velocity so that was also worse it just i think you can make a compelling case that gunner henderson just wasn't healthy in 2024 and that's reasonable and expecting improvement from that reasonable to what level though back to being a first round caliber player i think it's really hard to make that case because now we're looking at four full seasons in the end in mlb where he's played like a first round caliber player one time and it's not moving in the right direction and even that first round season he didn't run through the finish line it wasn't bad in the second half he wasn't a first round caliber player so i think you can make the case that there is still top 30 upside for gunner henderson top 10 i think it is hard to make the case at this point right now
Speaker 4very interested to see where the early adp pops in here on uh gunner henderson because people have been burned quite a bit by him now two years in a row francisco lindor is an interesting case he is actually turning 33 in 12 days so happy early birthday francisco lindor um he dealt with the bone back in february and then it was a calf injury that uh kept him out for for quite a while returned in june and like if you look at his ops by month he had a great july 861 ops august 7 11 september 7 22 uh the stack cast stuff wasn't great during that span too he's getting older clearly is some kind of weird strife between lindor and soto and i don't really know what's going on there he could be traded this offseason uh i don't know chris i think this is another one where maybe you could just blame the season being wrecked by injury for francisco lindor but he's you know also turning 33 years old in a couple weeks yeah this
Speaker 5is one where i'm not so worried about the bat i think the bat is more or less fine like his 331 x woba last year okay that was his worst in since 2015 but he was at 333 in 2022 he was at 345 in 2023 and 2025 that's spitting distance right like that that doesn't scream oh this guy's completely lost it and the average eggs have lost he was actually slightly up um so the best mark of his career 91.6 yeah i i think the bat is fine for francisco lindor i i know he's got a lot of experience but he's got a lot of experience you know the the final numbers weren't there even with you know even pacing it out but he would have gotten to 30 homers if he played the full season you know at his pace the batting average was really bad but hey batting average fluctuates the biggest thing though is the speed you know he goes from averaging 30 steals in each of the previous three seasons to just three this time i think the calf injury okay that's a good explanation but he's also no longer particularly fast he was 42nd percentile in sprint speed this year um and you're starting to see some cracks on the defensive side as well that might just be because he played he was playing through the calf injury calf injuries are notoriously difficult he had a he had one earlier in his career that i think had a similar impact yeah he only stole 10 bases in 2021 i think when he was playing through a calf injury was that i'll have to check on on what year it was but i'm i'm mostly i'm i'm more open to the fact that he's got a lot of experience and he's got a lot of experience and he's got a lot of experience but i'm i'm more open to the fact that he's got a lot of experience francisco lindor bounce back than gunner henderson but i can't say i'm willing to guarantee it or
Speaker 4anything yeah his outs above average the past three years have gone from 15 to 5 to 0 so yeah is taking a step back defensively could be related to the injury uh his bat speed not an issue though it was up two miles per hour from basically 71 to 73 miles per hour average bat speed so uh no real signs of age in terms of his bat speed or his quality of contact this past season so uh that that's a good thing i think he's got a lot of experience and i think he's got a lot of pretty good sign there from francisco lindor biggest breakout at the position i would probably say otto lopez just based on where he was drafted the adp was 229 he retired a return 23 worth of value but i would put cj abrams in that conversation as well his adp was 65 he finished as a ninth overall player and it was just a massive massive season for him one of three players to go 30 30 this past season we'll get to cj abrams in just a bit he was the number one shortstop the sleeper at the position the one that nobody saw coming i would give a little nod to brian rocchio who just didn't have an adp and he was an afterthought but i he provided 15 homers and 20 seals which is
Speaker 5rock solid yeah it is rockio solid um i i don't think it's the kind of season that there's much value in chasing for 2026 you know in a 15 team league as a middle infielder sure but even in a 12 team with middle infielders i think it's pretty fringy because it feels like those 15 home runs are probably close to the ceiling and the rest of the production it's fine but it's not yeah it's nothing special so it was a great it was a really good season for him but not one that i think there's much value in in trying to chase or expecting even more from all right before
Speaker 4we hit our first break just want to give everyone a programming update for the rest of this week we will have a special guest on wednesday and a different time as well so 3 p.m eastern time james anderson now from baseball america joining me uh to do a draft and hold primer so strategy into drafted holds he is awesome at that format he won the tout wars drafted hold league he uh won a bunch of his like nfbc draft champions leagues as well so for any of the sickos out there that you know your mind has started to think about kind of want to kind of want to get in a draft you know i got the itch for 2027 although we don't start hey it's gonna start yeah it's gonna start
Speaker 5eventually look i've got i've got a fantasy football team that's 0-8 now so all right back to baseball for you this is officially the time not all my leagues are that bad just to be clear but that one boy
Speaker 4yeah yeah but you know i i've already got the itch as well i am going to do a draft out of first pitch arizona so that'll be cool to see uh i am i'm waiting for the nfbc to roll over to the next season so that all the i don't want to do a draft yeah i don't want to do a draft where
Speaker 5the the position eligibility is not updated yet
Speaker 4that's supposed to happen here on tuesday november 3rd i believe so cool might see me in a draft like right
Speaker 5yeah i might jump into a gladiator
Speaker 4on wednesday yeah so draft and hold primer coming this wednesday 3 p.m eastern time with james anderson from baseball america and then we will be live from first pitch arizona this friday noon eastern time that will be 10 a.m in arizona i'm not sure if it'll actually be live and then the audio will be out sometime friday or saturday so you get three full lane podcasts this week if you're out at
Speaker 5first pitch arizona if you're out at any afl games and you see frank and i out there i i'm gonna frank caught a frank caught a home run during the home run derby last well he kind of yeah i mean you picked one up yeah and then you drop i dropped the actual one
Speaker 4hit you in the glove
Speaker 5yes yeah that was like it it can hurt when you get hit in the glove i get it um but i'm gonna try to grab a home run because i've never i i don't know i've been to like 250 baseball games in my life i have never gotten a home run or a foul
Speaker 4ball yeah ever that's why a couple of kids came up to me and asked for the ball i said no yeah it's like this is the first ball i've ever gotten at any event so i'm like sorry man like you have just more time in your life to catch a ball than
Speaker 5i do like you know frank frank is nearer his final foul ball than his first hopefully not but to your
Speaker 4point if anyone is out at first pitch arizona if you're at a game if you're at the home run derby you see us come say hi instantly come up to us do not be shy we'll talk baseball we'll talk life
Speaker 5whatever you want to talk about hey i i got recognized by uh an fbt listener before a concert on thursday my wife was there she thought it was the funniest thing that's ever happened so nice come say hi all right let's take
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Speaker 4Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. We will get to the shortstop recap in just a second. Very quickly go through the news and notes because there are some things that have happened since the end of the World Series. Eight players received the qualifying offer, which is one year, $23.15 million. Randy Rosarena with the Mariners, Taya Suzuki with the Cubs, Brandon Lau with the Pirates, Trevor Rogers with the Orioles, Adrian Morejon with the Padres, David Bednar with the Yankees, Jake Bowers with the Brewers, Ryan Jeffers with the Twins. The only. I think there are three names that could potentially accept it here. I don't think that they will, but Bednar, Bowers, and Jeffers. Maybe Trevor Rogers, too.
Speaker 5Yeah, I mean, Rogers. Pitchers get paid, right? Yeah. What's he gonna. He's not gonna get worse than the Luis Severino contract, right? And that was like $3 or $70 million or something.
Speaker 4Yeah. Well, the Athletics just needed to spend money, right? So they don't get in trouble.
Speaker 5Sure, but. You know, someone might get yelled at this offseason, too. Yeah, Bowers, I would guess he's gonna get a bigger deal than that, but I thought that about Trent Grisham and turned out to be wrong on that one. Jeffers. That's kind of shocking. Like, he's. He is not so young that he's got a lot of chances left to hit free agency, but I don't know, man. It's gonna be hard to turn down $23 million if you're Ryan Jeffers. I think at his. What is he, like, 30 or 31? I think he could. He turns 30, like, early next season.
Speaker 4I think he could probably get, like, a two- or three-year deal. Yeah. at maybe, like, $15 million to $20 million per year. So I don't know if he'll take that one, but yeah.
Speaker 5But you're thinking maybe you could get the same thing next year, right? True. That would be the thought process, but. Yeah. It's gonna be interesting. Motohon's the one I'm really watching because there's a lot of talk about potentially moving him to the rotation, which there's a lot of injury question marks in his career, I don't think he's ever thrown more than 70 innings as a starter, but he's got the stuff to be a really good starter. I could see a team trying the Clay Holmes, Michael King route with him.
Speaker 4And I also wouldn't mind if he just goes back to the Padres because they have done that very successfully with other pitchers and turned them from reliever to starter. I don't know if they would do that just because he's been so good in that role for them as a reliever, but if they wanted to, I think it's something he could succeed at. So, yeah. Very interested to see what happens with Adrian Motohon. No surprise, but the Rays exercised Drew Rasmussen's $20 million club option for 2027. Also, Yandy Diaz's $13 million option has vested, so he is also under contract for one more year with the Rays. Will they be with the Rays on opening day? That, I'm not so sure of. Did not know with this one, but Bobichette did exercise his $42 million player option to remain with the Mets in 2027. I know, just at face value, like $42 million a year for Bobichette seems obvious, but it's a bad free agency class, and I just thought maybe, you know, he could have tried for more total money if he wanted to, but I can't blame him for going back in for $42 million with the Mets. Sonny Gray declined his side of a $30 million mutual option and will become a free agent. Nick Martinez declined his part of a $20 million mutual option, is also now a free agent. Emilio Pagan declined his $10 million player option with the Reds, now a free agent. Michael Soroka declined his $10 million option and also a free agent here. D-backs GM Mike Hazen said the team could use Nolan Aranato at first base next season.
Speaker 5Do they? Do they have a third baseman I'm forgetting about? I guess. Because I don't think Jordan Lawler's played any infield the last year.
Speaker 4I was going to say they could move him back there, but yeah, they've almost exclusively been playing him in the outfield, so.
Speaker 5That's just like, because Nolan Aranato's still pretty good out there. That doesn't make any sense. Yeah. Unless you wanted to play, I don't know, Pavin Smith at first base and they've got a glut of outfielders. Yeah, that one's weird to me. I don't quite get that.
Speaker 4Evan Carter had arthroscopic surgery on his right hip to address a labrum injury and a hip impingement. He will not be ready for opening day. Some stuff here from Jeff Passon. Tarek Skubal is expected to sign before the lockout and mentioned two teams, the Dodgers and the Mets, as the favorites here for Tarek Skubal. The Brewers will apparently listen to trade-offs. For Trevor McGill, this one is from Buster Olney. Teoscar Hernandez is an obvious trade candidate for the Dodgers and that would go a long way to playing time there for Josue DePaulo, so something I think we're rooting for this offseason. And then three players have been posted from Japan. Infielder Teruaki Sato, who actually just won the, I believe, Triple Crown in Japan. I think he was also the MVP. Very much so in like the Murakami-Okamoto mold that there's lots of power. But lots of strikeouts and lower batting average. Plus two right-handed pitchers. I should have looked up how to say their names beforehand, but Kaima Tara and Hiromi Ito. So those three players have been posted. And normally they have a 45-day window, but with the lockout, they actually have to sign by 11.59 p.m. on December 1st. So we have a month. We have 30 days here for those Japanese players to get signed. I feel pretty good about Sato getting a contract. I'm not entirely sure about the pitchers here, but we have some time to do some research on those guys. Let's get into the top 12 shortstops from 2026. This is according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, and they measure based on the 5x5 Roto categories. I will also mention CBS Points Leagues in here. And I'm doing shortstop a lot like third base, where not the exact top 12 list. I'm skipping over players we've talked about in other positions. So it's a top 12-ish. And I'll mention where they actually finish. But your number one shortstop this season was C.J. Abrams' massive breakout season. One of three players to go 30-30, provided just over $30 of Roto value. He was first in total CBS Fantasy Points among shortstops. 3.5 Fantasy Points per game was tied for first. He hit 33 homers, 106 RBI, 34 steals. He improved his quality of contact. There were more pulled fly balls. He also overperformed his expected stats quite a bit. He struggled the final two months. That's like a pretty typical C.J. Abrams thing to do. But overall, Chris, massive, massive season. Don't want to take everything away from him. Very interested to see where the ADP comes in here on C.J.
Speaker 5Abrams. Yeah, I'm going to guess second round. You could make a case for C.J. Abrams being a first rounder, but I don't think I'd be able to get on board with it. And look, I'll grant that that might not be the smartest way to view it because he was worth that. And, you know, the underlying numbers mostly back it up. I just have trouble buying it. It's still not great plate discipline. He still hasn't had the full great season. Although, look, it's tough because he had a great season, right? It's just that his final two months were not good. But that could have just been random. And would we feel any different? If his worst two months of the season had been May and September instead of August and September? We would probably feel different, right? And I'm not sure that's actually important. So I will grant that my moderate skepticism about Abrams is not entirely rational, I would say.
Speaker 4Yeah, it's this is another one where it's like buying off the career year. If it's a second round pig, I just I get why he's going to be going to go there. I just don't know that I'm going to be the one that's going to be able to do that and actually, like, press the draft button on him if it's in the second round again, worth it based on what he just did. And he's still young enough where, like, it makes sense that he broke out. He had an approach change and obviously, you know, had this big season. But there are questions. The way he finished did not seem like he wanted to play second base at all. And that feels like it's happening like that is coming very soon. Is he traded this offseason? So there are just questions right now. Got to see. Where he winds up, what position he's going to play. But yeah, I I am skeptical of him here if he does wind up in the second round. Your number two shortstop was Ellie De La Cruz, who had his best season as a hitter yet. Another one of those three who just went 30 30 this past season. $27 of roto value. Third in total fantasy points at shortstop, 3.5 fantasy points per game. He hit 283, had the 30 homers, 30 steals right on the dot, 880 OPS. He did that. that in 140. 43 games, massive improvement against left-handed pitching, huge jump in average EV, bat speed, and barrel rate. Can he maintain those gains against lefties? You know, I do have some skepticism with that, but Chris, this is more of the hitter we saw in the first half of 2025 before he hurt his quad injury, and it looks like he was just trending towards this happening if he could stay healthy, which he went on the I.O. with a hamstring, but obviously, like, still had his best season yet as a hitter.
Speaker 5Yeah, the nice thing is because he's, you know, because he played pretty much every day, he had the one I.L. stint. We do have a fairly large sample size for L.A. De La Cruz when it comes to the splits. He had 188 played appearances against lefties or against right. Yeah, no. Against lefties from the right side, which is a very small sample size, but bigger than you sometimes see with these, and it was just night and day. I mean, he went from postseason, seeing an average exit velocity below 88.3 miles per hour each of his first three seasons from the right side of the plate. He was up to 95.5 this year. His expected WOBA was below 300 each of his first three seasons against lefties, up to 366 this year. Now, he did also improve from the left side of the plate, so, you know, it's not like it was all just one side of the plate and it's a small sample size. Like, it was just dramatic. Dramatic improvement across the board in basically every way you could possibly hope for from L.A. De La Cruz, and then the fact that it was in line with what he did before that quad injury in 2025. I'm very inclined to just take what L.A. De La Cruz did at face value. He just kept getting better as the season went on. Finished the season with a.457 expected WOBA over his final 100 plate appearances. That is Aaron Judge level. Of production, so, you know, he's not the elite stolen base guy he was at one point, but I think expecting.30-30 is pretty reasonable. With an improving batting average, too. With an improvement, like, yeah, I don't think he's a liability in batting average anymore. And so, you add it all up. Plus, there is at least the rumblings of some whispers about L.A. De La Cruz possibly being on the trade market this offseason. Which, you know, would be a park downgrade probably, but probably a lineup upgrade, because that lineup stunk outside of him. And South Stewart, I guess. So, I think L.A. De La Cruz is firmly a top five pick in any Roto League, and he's not far in a points league at this point.
Speaker 4Yeah, he actually, he's never had, L.A. has never had more than 86 RBI in a season, despite being, you know, a pretty good hitter his first three years, and obviously got much better. Better this year. But, yeah, I think we would expect those numbers to be better and potentially could be if he's traded. Yeah, there have been some whispers that that can happen. And even, like, Joey Votto, who seems pretty plugged into the Reds, he's like, the first thing I would do if I was the Reds GM is trade L.A. just because he knows they're not going to re-sign him, right? So, like, the next massive, massive extension that blows our minds is going to be probably L.A. De La Cruz. Yeah, $500 million, kind of, yeah. Depending on if there's, like, a salary cap. But, again, I don't, it's hard to talk about that when we just don't know what's going to happen yet. Number three at shortstop was Bobby Witt Jr., who had a, actually, it was Otto Lopez. We're skipping Otto Lopez. We spoke about him on second base. Even though he's no longer second base, again, it was confusing. That's my bad. But a down season here for Bobby Witt Jr. by his standards. Still was very productive. $21 of Roto value. Fifth in total fantasy points at shortstop. 3.4 fantasy points per game. Hit.281, 18 homers, 94 runs, 54 RBI, 45 steals. Obviously, the RBI stick out here like a sore thumb. But he did have 80 or more RBI in each of his first four seasons. The home run totals have been disappointing the past two years. Only 41 total home runs during that span. You don't love that, the RBI stuff. But I would expect the power to at least bounce back a little bit. The same with the RBI. It seems fluky. And you know the batting average steals and run score are all going to be very, very good. So, I'm expecting some level of a bounce back for Bobby Witt Jr. in 2017.
Speaker 52027. It's really hard to come up with a good explanation for why his power numbers were down so much this season. Like, yeah, he lost a little bit of exit velocity. He lost a little bit of barrel rate. But not enough to go from being a consistent 25-ish homer guy to just 18. Part of it, I guess he had, was a knee injury?
Speaker 4Yeah, he did go on the IEL and missed some time.
Speaker 5But I think the underlayer, the underlying stuff still tells us this is one of the very best hitters in baseball. He actually had the second best expected WOBA of his career at.378. If you set the over-under at 19.5 home runs for Bobby Witt, I would hammer the over. I think it'll be closer to 25. And then you can also just look at it this way. He had, in 157 games in 2025, he had, let's do some quick math, 61 combined home runs and steals. In 143 games in 2026, he had 63 combined home runs and steals. Actually, let's keep going. 2024, 63 combined home runs and steals. That's kind of wild. So like, yeah, the power production's a little disappointing and you have to be aware of that. But does your outlook of Bobby Witt change all that much if he hits five more home runs in 2026? I don't really think so. It's hard to make the case for him as the number one pick in fantasy. And nobody's going to do that. It's hard for me to come up with a case for him below like number five, at least in any Roto League. Just the batting average is so strong. The stolen bases are so strong. He's going to be a standout in at least three categories. And it's probably going to be pretty good in two others. I think the RBI will bounce back too. I'm perfectly happy to take him anywhere in the top five after the first pick, I think.
Speaker 4Yeah. And I know if Scott were here, he would kind of push back a little bit. It comes down to how you want to draft your fantasy team, specifically in a categories league, where if you want more power, in the first round, I can understand that. I also think there are pretty easy ways to supplement that with Bobby Witt Jr., whether it's drafting a Pete Alonzo in round two or Kyle Schwarber, another one of these like slugging first base type, Ben Rice, whoever it might, you know, one of these guys who you can get in the second or third round, maybe even multiple of them to go along with Bobby Witt, who you know you're going to get, again, the batting average and the steals. And then from like a points league perspective, maybe he's a little bit lower, maybe he's like a mid to late first rounder. But yeah, I think in categories, I think I would still put him inside the top five. Again, that was Bobby Witt Jr. We were just talking about. Up next, we have Zach Netto, who had a productive season. He did take a step back, kind of sold out for more power this season, but right around $18 of Roto value, sixth in total fantasy points, 2.9 fantasy points per game, only hit 239 with 27 homers, 102 runs scored, 24 steals. The strikeout rate was up over 30%, lots of fly ball. So again, it kind of, kind of lent itself to he was selling out to get to more power this season. He was a little bit more inefficient on the base paths here. It sounds like everything I'm saying is negative. It kind of is, but he's still a great Roto player. Takes a hit in a points league for sure because he strikes out so much. But Chris, he, Zach Netto just comes with more warts in terms of like the inefficiency on the base paths, the strikeouts, and the fact that like he's had to put the ball in the air more to try and get to the power. Doesn't have like that, huge raw power that we see from other players.
Speaker 5Yeah, it's good power, but not great. And it's pretty bad play discipline. He actually came within, he was like a bad couple of weeks from challenging the MLB strikeout record. He ended up striking out 215 times. But when I look at his, every time I look at his numbers, I'm like, man, the final numbers were a lot less disappointing than I thought they would be. Like it felt, like he was more disappointing than he actually was. And I think part of that is you're comparing 128 games in 2025 to 160 or 157 in 2026. And so I think we just assumed everything would get a little better with a full season. And maybe he's just not as good as he looked in 2025. I think that's a reasonable takeaway, but just a 25, 25, you know, like that's still hard to scoff at 102 runs, 77 RBI. Yeah. He's not terrible. So I think on the whole, you're, you're pretty happy if Zach Netto's your starting shortstop, but there are flaws. And, and I think especially with the batting average, you have to guard against the, the really low out, the, the really low end of the outcomes.
Speaker 4He's another name to watch this off season. He he's popped up in trade rumors as well. And that's something that wouldn't shock. I like the Red Sox keep popping up with these shortstop names. Like Neto and Fenway would be awesome. That would be fun. Ellie, with his swing in like, I don't know if it would play as well in Fenway, but obviously it, I think it would be maybe an upgrade in terms. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. Neto and Fenway. I could get behind Ellie. I'm not so sure. I want them on the Red Sox here, but yeah, Zach Netto, you know, the quality of contact is expected. Stats all came down. Like it wouldn't surprise me if just from a header perspective and quality of contact, like 2025 is perhaps an outlier here for Zach Netto. But again, like you said, like still pretty productive, in terms of power. speed and and obviously the counting stats there uh with zach netto moving on we are skipping kevin mcgonigal we spoke about him on our third base recap and that brings us to trey turner who had himself a down season another one starting to get up there in age provided ten dollars of roto value eighth in total fantasy points at shortstop 2.7 fantasy points per game he hit 242 19 homers still got to 100 runs scored 21 steals the ops down from 812 all the way to 675 chris when i dug in i i just don't really see an obvious explanation yeah it just looks like everything got a little bit worse for trey turner like he's bounced back before in his career but it's like to make that bet for a 33 year old who chases pitches outside the strike zone and he's pretty aggressive at the play i just i i think he could still have some value but it's it's not really a bet i want to make
Speaker 5so the the the one year that he struck out more than this one outside of a truncated rookie season was or first season i guess was 2023 he had a 22 strikeout rate that year was 21 this year basically every other season of his career it's been 18 or lower and he bounced back after that 2023 season that was the worst strikeout rate of his career cut it down to 18 the following year had a very nice bounce back season it's just easier to make that bet with a 30 year old than a 33 year old you know like i i think that's just ultimately what it comes down to is i i think he's still a pretty good bet to be a useful fantasy option you know like the runs the stolen bases even the power like there there are going to be useful numbers here and i i would bet he hits a lot better than 242 even if you can't bet on him being a 300 guy
Speaker 4again yeah i again i've been go ahead continue oh no no go ahead no i was gonna i was gonna say like my projection but no no finish your thought on trade turner
Speaker 5but i do think like the decline phase is here yeah i think it it's hard to expect a full bounce back i think it's reasonable to think he'll be better than 2026 especially that batting average but a return to a player you feel good about as a first round pick i i don't think that's likely
Speaker 4to happen yeah i've been writing down for each of these players that i've been i've already dug deep a little projection and and for him i wrote 260 to 270 around 15 home runs so expect that to come down a little bit but 90 to 100 runs scored 25 to 30 steals he still is like tops in baseball in terms of sprint speed so there's a little give and take i i think the batting average could bounce back a little bit maybe the power comes down i think he could run a little bit more obviously he has to stay on the field he's dealt with some injuries like since he's joined the phillies but uh yeah i think there could be a little bit of a bounce back interested to see another one where the adp kind of comes out here on trey turner uh and some very direct quotes from dave dombrowski after the season ended they made it very clear that trey turner needs to improve defensively or he will not stay at shortstop so that'll be interesting uh quote he knows he has to be a bit better at shortstop and i told him that it's really mandatory that he's like that he feels he can play and if he plays shortstop like he did in 25 he can play shortstop but if he plays it like he did in 26 he can't and he totally understands that that article also said trey turner could move to the outfield next season if he can't handle shortstop so
Speaker 5there's their top prospect as a shortstop throw it miller barely played this year yeah throwing
Speaker 4all different types of possibilities out there for next season alec bohm also a free agent so like i think aiden miller is up one way or another maybe it's at third base maybe it's at second and they play bryson stott at third base again but they do have alternatives here if trey turner doesn't get it done defensively uh perhaps moving to the um outfield here in 2027 let's take our final break when we return back into the uh shortstop recap we'll do that right after this
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Speaker 4welcome back in fantasy baseball today we are continuing on with the shortstop recap and uh after trey turner the next name we have is tony de coppola up here is jeremy pena who was very productive when he played but he did he's now missed time two years in a row significant time unfortunately uh right around ten dollars of roto value 3.1 fantasy points per game that was tied for sixth among shortstops so again very good on a per game basis he hit 277 22 homers 82 runs 12 steals full season pace 31 homers 118 runs 17 steals poll air rate is up two years in a row you love that as a right-handed hitter in houston uh you don't love the strikeout rate rising unfortunately it was up over 31 for the final two months entering a contract year i chris i just this is one where i think i'm talking myself into it too much and just like i need someone to kind of level me out a little bit and i'll see what the projections look like for for pena but i could just see in a contract year him staying healthy and potentially putting up like a 30 20 season if everything comes together but i'm not sure if i'm going to be able to do that but i'm going to that would be like obviously a 90th percentile outcome or better or
Speaker 5better yeah it's tough because the strikeout rate did go up at the same time that the home runs did and so how much of that is a give and take right he ends up hitting 16 homers in the second half he also struck out 81 times and 267 plate appearances that's a a pretty scary strikeout rate but if he's a 30 homer guy now then i think you can deal with that like i think strikeout rate probably still too high no matter what but you can live with an increase in strikeouts if it comes with hitting the ball with more authority i don't know that the underlying data necessarily backs that up so it's a little concerning there he's been someone who has outperformed his his underlying data the last two seasons so you know maybe there's something there but i i don't know i i i think he's really good i think jeremy pena more or less what he's done the past two seasons is what i'm expecting but you know the breakout in 2025 looked like it came about from improving his strikeout rate becoming a much better contact hitter without sacrificing power that was confused a little bit by 2026 right like he he did have to sacrifice some some batting average some batting average and some contact skills to get to more power is that a trade-off you'll take probably but you also have to keep in mind he might get traded there have been a lot i think the astros are kind of one of the most fascinating teams in baseball because they should probably try to blow it up right now uh they've got a lot of guys who are still in their prime who would fetch a lot in trade and they don't have a path to contention i think so that is um they are a fascinating team that i could see absolutely blowing it up this
Speaker 4offseason they can yeah asoc paradis his name has popped up jeremy pena's name has popped up the astros just introduced their new general manager here on monday uh randy flores who was previously i believe part of like the scouting department in the cardinals organization um so this is his first time taking on a role you know this this massive for a team and it's an interesting spot to be and they also have to hire a manager so uh it did like joe espada is not coming back joe espada actually might sign uh join the mariners which is pretty interesting as well but yeah a couple teams still looking for managers interesting to see where they go pena is an interesting one pena is definitely an interesting one uh for sure next up we have that's right i don't know how we got here but it's mauricio dubon that's right he has short stop and outfield eligibility uh this was mostly that dubon was just present and he has multi position eligibility provided nine dollars of roto value 17th in total fantasy points at shortstop 2.5 fantasy points per game he hit 276 12 homers 10 seals he has he didn't really change much he just got the opportunity to play every day more than ever before uh free agent this offseason interested to see where he signs and if he'll be an everyday player but yeah this mostly just feels like he got the chance to play every day and he took
Speaker 5advantage that and a bunch of better shortstop had worse seasons i think that's it and kudos to mauricio dubon for taking advantage of the opportunity he had a very nice season he's a little player um but i i think if you're if you're starting him in fantasy something's probably gone wrong nice player to have around though you know especially this season when he did have at one point the eligible like everywhere except out or first base I think I think he wound up with
Speaker 4second third shortstop and outfield only has shortstop and outfield heading into next season but yeah he had I believe four different position eligibilities yeah and you have to think he'll
Speaker 5probably be playing somewhere that he's more of a utility guy again so you know that that eligibility helps but not not a great fantasy option
Speaker 4yeah it's very similar to not the same shape of production but very similar to a Brooks Lee and Ezekiel Duran where it's a good player to have in a deeper format a draft and hold type league where you can move these guys around but in your typical 10 or 12 team league I I just don't really think there's enough impact from from those kind of guys uh speaking of which we are skipping Brooks Lee and Ezekiel Duran we spoke about them in our third base recap so uh next up we get to Neal Duran who uh unfortunately did have a down season here most of it looks unlucky to me provided eight dollars of roto value he was 10th in total fantasy points at shortstop uh also has second base eligibility obviously 2.6 fantasy points per game he hit 263 eight homers 23 steals a 666 OPS he was great through April and then just struggled from May on but again Chris like the expected stats tell me that he was unlucky he's still a great defender he's durable he's got a lot of good players in the league he's got a lot of good players in the league I would expect at least a little bit of a bounce back for Nico Horner for next season
Speaker 5I think it makes sense to bet on a bounce back he is going to be 30 next season so it's not a guaranteed the the thing that really concerns me though is the stolen bases and you know that that drops to 21 I believe right 23 23 which is his lowest since 2022 and that also coincided with him being dropped to sixth in the linebacker and he's going to be 30 next season so it's not a guarantee I think it makes sense to bet on a bounce back he is going to be 30 next season so it's not a guarantee scoring 62 runs and something that I have noticed with the council cubs is stolen bases have been somewhat dependent on where you hit in the lineup now they do have Ian Happ and Sayazuki heading to free agency who knows what that team's going to look like next season but if Nico Horner's hitting in the bottom half of that lineup again I do think the whole you know it looks like Bryson Stott at that point and there's nothing wrong with that you know that's a nice middle infielder but Nico Horner has been a top five second baseman in the past and now I'm not sure you can bet on him for the stolen bases or the runs being outlier production and that's where he's made a lot of value the last couple of years so I think 260 is your batting average I'll bet on something closer to 280 yeah the steals and runs are a little concerning though
Speaker 4I think that's all fair uh you look at his xb a was 297 this past season so I think it's more likely he hits closer to 300 than he does 250 like this past season so that's mostly where I expect the bounce back to come in the batting average and then inherently if he's just on base more you would hope that he runs more than he did this past season but I I think your your points are valid with uh with Craig Council in the Cubs lineup uh we'll see how they bring in too because again losing Sayazuki and Ian Happ would would be pretty big losses for the Cubs lineup so um could affect all the run production um for that team moving on next up we have the uh aforementioned Brian Rocchio who had his best offensive season yet he did provide some power and speed right around seven dollars of roto value he was 16th in total fantasy points at shortstop 2.5 fantasy points per game hit 253 15 homers 20 steals it was a very up and down season I mean he had a three-month shortstop he had a three-month shortstop he had a three-month stretch where he was basically unusable I think it was from June through August and then he finished really strong again uh in September but he makes a lot of contact his pulled air rate has been uh has improved the past two years he's very strong defensively so you know he's going to play I'd expect a little bit of a step back probably something like the 10 to 12 homers 15 to 20 steals more of a middle infield type than than your starting shortstop
Speaker 5yeah the underlying data does not really back up the breakouts I think it's going to be a little bit of a step back but I think it's going to be a breakout but you know maybe the pulled air rate and then the contact skills help you know he did have cut the strike rate from 20 to 14 percent but on the whole not not a player that I'm look if that's your starting shortstop something went terribly wrong yeah you're in a big hole yeah uh ale
Speaker 4only I think it could work out pretty well but uh anything shallower than that probably not on on uh rocchio but again like I think it could be a fine middle infield type but uh I think it could be a fine middle infield type but I think it could be a fine middle infield uh does not enough impact there to be your starting shortstop for fantasy skipping Bo Bichette next up we get to Dansby Swanson who just had a very weird shape to his season he did miss a month with an oblique strain he provided right around five dollars of roto value 2.8 fantasy points per game was tied for 13th at shortstop he hit 213 19 homers 17 steals in 126 game games Chris remember that insane 13 game stretch in June where he hit 365. with nine homers 29 RBI and four steals 1374 OPS again in a 13 game stretch so that definitely helped the production this season uh but he's starting to get up there as well he's turning 33 in February the quality of contact came down his expected stats were pretty terrible we have a long track record of Dansby Swanson's is kind of being a 2020 240 type guy but I I think the skills don't exactly support that that batting average he could probably still get to 2020 but I think maybe I'd expect more like a 220 or 230 batting
Speaker 5average at this point yeah in a 10 game stretch he had a three game stretch with four with sorry he had a three game stretch with 15 RBI and he had consecutive games with 11 RBI combined uh so that's 26 RBI over those 10 games he had 80 69 the whole season so that means he had oh 43 in his other 116 games
Speaker 4that's wild um
Speaker 5yeah I mean look you're gonna get close to 2020 you're gonna get a bad batting average you're gonna hope it's better than 213. I don't really have a lot to add there I don't think there's like I suppose you can see uh a scenario where he hits 25 homers and steals 25 bases or or maybe 20 bases and you know just kind of bumps everything up you know five percent and and is a a top 12 is shortstop I I think that's reasonable but it's not what I'm expecting and I think there are other bounce back candidates with a lot more upside yeah than Dansby Swanson so I I think again this feels like one where something's gone wrong if you're rely on relying on
Speaker 4him yeah another I think good deep league player he's still very good defensively and I think as long as he's healthy he is going to play every day and again assuming the Cubs bring in a some play either bring some of those players back or bring somebody else in you think it's still going to be a Cubs line a good Cubs lineup for next season you know deeper leagues maybe he could be a starter but you know 10 or 12 teams I I think you're looking for uh for more impact here from the shortstop position steamer projections by the way are already out for next season uh on fan graphs and uh they have Dansby Swanson for just 16 homers 13 steals hitting 234 that's over 122 games so they expect him to continue to miss some time as he gets up there in age uh unfortunately there next up after Dansby Swanson we uh get to Geraldo perdomo who says it says number 11 here but he actually finished 16th the position again just skipping over some names came back down to Earth after his breakout season five dollars of Roto value seventh in total fantasy points at shortstop 2.8 fantasy points per game he hit 262 370 on base is just massive nine homers 21 steals 747 OPS the power metrics just came way down uh back to Earth again like 2025 is going to be the clear outlier season for perdomo I still think he could be useful Chris just not an impactful player more more of that middle infield type as well although in a points League you might be able to use him as your starter because his play discipline is so
Speaker 5so so good yeah the thing that was weird about her Alder perdomo season was that he only had 75 runs scored in 157 games despite walking 96 times putting up a 370 on base percentage I I don't really know like he hit in the top four of the games exclusively often in the top two I understand him not driving in a ton of runs but the really low amount of runs he scored feels like a real outlier and I can't really make sense of it and given that if even if nothing else changes I would guess he's closer to 90 runs next season and the whole profile looks a lot better if that's the case so I I think there's room for pretty natural improvement from her Aldo perdomo without him actually improving all that much if that makes
Speaker 4sense yeah yeah I it's a good point about the run scored yeah just getting on base that much it's probably more of a reflection of just the d-backs lineup obviously like Corbin Carroll playing through that back injury for a lot of the year Cattell Marte took a step back so their lineup the mainstays were not as good as they previously had been. So that should fare well for Perdomo. But again, he is, and the next thing we'll talk about, Mookie Betts. They are guys that I think get a big boost in terms of the changes from a category league to a points league. Although Perdomo will give you like 20 steals, his play discipline is just so, so, so awesome that I think he could be like a borderline top 12 shortstop in a points league.
Speaker 5Yeah, in a points league, I think he's borderline top 12. I think in an OBP league, he's borderline top 12 at shortstop. Yeah, that's fair. Batting average, you know, I think 262 is lower than what I expect moving forward. So I think on the whole, if I was coming up with like an expectation for Alder Perdomo next season, 275, 12 home runs, 90 runs, 60 RBI, 20 steals. That's not a great player, but it's not killing you if that's your starter. He just, he really needs the count. He just needs the counting stats to improve the runs, especially if he's going to be a starter. I think if he can do that, he can be a viable starter, but it's fairly low ceiling kind of stuff.
Speaker 4The last name we'll talk about here is Mookie Betts. Again, it says number 12 on the screen, but he was the number 17 shortstop in Roto this past season. Not the player he used to be. He still does have some value provided right around $5 of Roto value. 3.1 fantasy points per game is awesome. He hit 257. 123 homers, 780 OPS, and 123 games. His full season pace, still 30 homers, 93 runs, 90 RBI. Finished strong the final two months. He's now done that two years in a row. Massive pulled air rate in September. It's like over 30% pulled air rate, and he had seven of his 23 home runs, but he does not run anymore. He has played 123 games or fewer in two of the last three years. He's getting up there in age, so not really a guy, again, that you want to bet on the bounce back happening. Here, I think there's some value, Chris, but like Perdomo, I think he's much, much better in a head-to-head points league.
Speaker 5Yeah, although you give him that 150-ish game pace, and you're probably looking at something close to 30 homers and, I don't know, 85 runs and 85 RBI. That's not bad. He doesn't help you much in batting average anymore, although if he can keep it around 260, he doesn't hurt you. And then, obviously, I think the steals are done, right? Two stolen bases on five attempts. It's not bad. It's impossible, but it seems very unlikely that you're going to get anything from him there. So, you know, how much is 30 homers and 85 runs and 85 RBI worth? Not nothing, certainly. Yeah, so I think it's. I don't even know if you'd call it a bounce back because it's just talking about him having the season that he was on pace to have. Like, I'm trying to come up with a, like. It's a weird comp, but kind of what Nolan Aranato just did. And he was a top 50 hitter overall. I think that outcome is still within Mookie Betts' grasp, but because of his age and, you know, because there are, I think, other players with more upside at the position who are likely to go around the same range or later, I can't imagine Mookie Betts is going to be a high priority for me in drafts.
Speaker 4It's just hard to also, if you play in a categories league, have a shortstop that gives you no speed at all. It makes building your team out just different and just feel a little bit weird. The same thing could be said for drafting a Corey Seager or even a Bo Bichette. I mean, those guys are going to give you no speed at this point in their career. And I think at Betts' age and the fact that he's missed time two of the past three years, that's probably an expectation for me that he'll just miss 20 or 30 games throughout the course of the season. He had the oblique this past year. So, again, he does have some things playing against him. I think he could have some value in a categories league, but I still think he could be impactful in a points league.
Speaker 5He only struck out 11% of the time last year in a points league. So that in a points league, the walk rate has come down, but still 9% is pretty strong.
Speaker 4I almost wouldn't mind him striking out more if he can get to more power as a result of it. But the strikeout rate has really just, it's been so low the past couple of years.
Speaker 5Yeah, no, I mean, but you also have to keep in mind, you know, 2024 was still a very, very good season. He struck out 11% of the time. Like he was still on a, he's been still on a 30 homer pace, two of the three seasons along with that. But yeah, I think he's settling in as a good player, you know, but not a great one for fantasy anymore.
Speaker 4Yep. I think that's all fair. We will do some shortstop rankings on our FBT Express episode. So make sure to check that out. We'll discuss some names like Connor Griffin, and Lindor, and Gunnar Henderson, and see where those guys rank for Chris. So again, be sure to check that out. But we are going to wrap there for Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again later this week. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye.
Speaker 11Bye-bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. There's nothing quite like a college football Saturday. The fight songs, the rivalries, the traditions passed down from one generation of fans to the next. And of course, they're settling in for a full day of football with Chris Modelo. Because Saturdays are for the gridiron and Cervasus. College football is built on tradition, and no one knows tradition like Modelo. From the fan quakes that shake the stadium, to the rivalry trophies that mean everything year after year, these traditions are the most important. And these traditions are what make Saturday special. So if you're listening to this, consider it your sign. Grab a Chris Modelo, settle in, and enjoy a full day of college football. Because it's just not game day, it's tradition. And those who keep college football traditions alive deserve a Modelo. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of the college football playoff. Drink responsibly. Modelo Especial Beer, imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, Illinois.
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