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Speaker 3Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch rushing deep left field. This is what it looks like. Got a fantasy question? Email [email protected]. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now, here's Frank Sinatra. Scott and Chris. Speaker 4Second base, not quite as good as first base. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball Today on Tuesday, October 27th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it is our second base recap. We will take a look back at preseason ADP, the biggest bust, the biggest breakout, and who finished top 12 at the position. I kind of thought the timing of this podcast going live would be a little bit awkward because game three of the World Series. Is going on. Turns out it's already over. Mercy rule. Brewers on their way to a 3-0 lead. This team is an absolute machine.
Speaker 5I want I want to point out before we really begin in earnest that say whatever you want about Scott White. But one thing you cannot say about him. He is not a front runner because he shows up to this podcast. If you're not watching on YouTube, Rays are down to nothing. He shows up. They're down 10-0 in game three. So very shortly going to be a 3-0 series deficit. And Scott's rocking the Rays jersey.
Speaker 6Yes, sir. It's funny you say this. So I I promised on the last podcast I was wearing a Brewer shirt that I would wear my Rays shirt. Keep things fair. That was when the series was 0-0. And I think we were all expecting a long series, a close series. But it's not looking that way. The Brewers seem kind of unstoppable. Right now. Of course, nobody's actually unstoppable, especially in baseball. But yeah, it just feels like nothing can stop them right now. But yeah, follow through on my Rays shirt. My wife, before I went on, she said they're going to laugh you off the podcast. So no,
Speaker 5because I know you actually, you know,
Speaker 6it's funny, like a Rays fan. The idea of being a front runner. I remember I grew up in suburban Atlanta, so the Falcons were obviously the home team. I was in fifth grade. The Falcons had done basically nothing as a franchise. They were they were pretty much always bad. Occasionally, they'd creep into the playoffs, you know, but that was it. And I remember it was really hard to find another kid my age who would admit to being a Falcons fan. Like and whenever anybody found out I was a Falcons fan, their response would be the Falcons stink. And I always thought, like, why is that relevant? Like, they're the home team. They're supposed to. Root for the home team. Like, yeah, that's that's I can't be a Falcons fan because they stink like that. That doesn't make sense to me.
Speaker 4I support that wholeheartedly. Scott, I have been a big proponent of rooting for your geographic team throughout the course of my life, so I support you and the Atlanta Falcons. I mean, all right, hold up.
Speaker 5Technically, you don't root for the local team.
Speaker 6Oh, hard call out.
Speaker 5You grew up closer to Shea than Yankee Stadium. Come on, Chris. Two New York teams. I'm just saying.
Speaker 4I also am about a 15 minute drive from Yankee Stadium right now.
Speaker 5Now. But growing up. Yeah. Technically, you didn't root for the local team. I'm just I'm not. I'm not judging you. Two teams. I just think I just think the audience deserves honest, radical transparency. While we were doing this, I was looking it up. The Brewers haven't lost three games in a row since July 12th and 11th. They lost a double header on the 11th. They haven't lost four games in a row since. Gosh, ever. April 22nd through the 25th. Remember, if you remember, the Brewers actually didn't start out all that great. They were only one game over 500 at the end of April. And then they had, like, what, the two double digits? Two double digit win streaks or something.
Speaker 1I have no recollection of that.
Speaker 5Yeah. No, they they had their two longest losing streaks. They had a six game losing streak in April and then a four game losing streak in April. And they won 103 games. As we always tell you, don't overreact to April, guys.
Speaker 4I also was today years old when I found out Robert Gasser's nickname is Bobby Diesel, which is a good name.
Speaker 5So it's just absolutely love that. It's just a bummer that he throws like.
Speaker 493. Yeah, right. He should be throwing 97 plus. Yeah, he should be like a world of Chapman out there. He kind of has that Chris Sale delivery too, right? Like, that would be pretty awesome.
Speaker 6Going against the Dodgers and then going against the Rays, two teams with killer pitching staffs. I mean, Brewers, it just seems like whoever they throw out there right now is is going to be the best pitcher in that game. And that, like, Robert Gasser, you know, he had a pretty good second half, the ERA shows. But when was there a point in fantasy this year where we were like, you got to pick up Robert Gasser, you know? Yeah.
Speaker 5I don't think he ever reached further than you can pick up Robert Gasser.
Speaker 6Aaron Ashby looks like the world's best reliever. He had a whip of over 1.3 during the regular season. Like he was, he was good. He won 13 games as a reliever, which is hard to do. Obviously that a lot has to do with the entering the game and whatnot. But, but yeah, he changed the grip of his change up in the middle. Of the post season. And it's turned him into a complete animal.
Speaker 5He's having one of the best post seasons ever for a reliever.
Speaker 4Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about second base. Not great. Actually much better than it was in 2025. I think what makes second base looks look even worse is that we're talking about it right after first base, which is just the most loaded position in fantasy baseball right now. But according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, we had four players with 20 or more dollars of value this season, 13 with 10 or more dollars. In 2025, only one second baseman with $20 of value, only seven with $10 of value. So it actually has been much better from 2025 to 2026. And now we technically do have a superstar with second base eligibility in Fernando Tatis.
Speaker 6Okay. Yeah. The best, I think we talked about it before Fernando Tatis having second base eligibility is very clutch. It's, it's the best player with second base eligibility. I believe since Trey Turner had it briefly during the, during his. Prime going to the Dodgers from the nationals. Yeah. But the numbers you just gave, like how many of those players are still going to be eligible at second base? Three of the top, three of the top six will not be.
Speaker 5That is the next part of this, yeah. You're saying it looks worse. Marcus Simeon and Mookie Betts both had second base eligibility more recently than that. Okay. There you go. Well, but Simeon wasn't like a first round pick like Tatis.
Speaker 6Yeah, he was a top five pick a couple of times.
Speaker 4He had one monster season with the Blue Jays.
Speaker 6But nobody was drafted. He wasn't, he wasn't being drafted in the first round the following year.
Speaker 5I, I think, I think Marcus Simeon. He might've been a turn pick. I think there was a year where both Marcus Betts and Marcus Simeon were top 12 picks. That would be my guess.
Speaker 6I, I don't think there was for Simeon. Certainly there was for Betts. Betts has spent most of his career as a first rounder, but and, and I know Simeon had that 45 homer season, but it was one of those where the following year it was like, draft him at the two, three turn kind of guy. We're getting off track a little. I, I, I want to follow up on your point. Second base looks worse. Um, because, uh, uh, because we just got through talking about first base. That was not my impression going through my early rankings around the infield, um, over the last few weeks, my impression was distinctly that second base is the worst. And it surprised me because I expected third base. this to be the worst, and I know historically, there have been times where we set where we've gone in thinking second base second base might be worse than third base because it's not as strong at the very top as third base but then if you get into any league that use middle infield spot corner infield spots like a standard roto lineup it's like yeah but second base looks a lot deeper in that range i don't think that's true this year i see a lot more upside at third base uh going into 2027 in that in that uh 13 through 24 range than i do with second base second base you got tatis at the top pretty ugly thereafter not that there's nothing but it's it's not pretty and then there's a really hard drop off where it's just like i don't want a part of any of these guys so let's put a little
Speaker 4respect to that on bryce terang's name right after tatis but then it does fall off quite a bit after sure yeah
Speaker 6yeah i mean i'm thinking brandon lau feels stronger now than he has in a long time like it's not like there's nothing there but compared to other positions it's it's
Speaker 5not much yeah i'd say nine or so players i feel pretty good about as a starter at second base but i think the thing i think i think the thing you have to keep in mind in all of these discussions is well we didn't think fernando tatis would have second base
Speaker 6eligibility um we weren't sure stewart would pick it up and yes he's losing it again but that doesn't mean he can't pick it up
Speaker 5again um like there are just always this is i think the position more than any other maybe outfield um but certainly among the infield positions this is the one where you unexpectedly find value not just because guys break out unexpectedly but because guys gain eligibility unexpectedly there i think there's a non-expected value to it i think there's a non-expected value to it i think there's a non-expected zero chance we are at a point next season where luis garcia is second base eligible again there was a uh there's been a lot of talk about the yankees potentially trying him at second base again um so i i second base is always better than it seems and then some of those guys don't get eligibility again and it gets worse and that the cycle continues yeah cj
Speaker 4abrams one of those names that could gain second base eligibility um the names that look like they are well as of now they are definitely losing second base auto low as luis garcia jr seydan rafaela zach geloff brooks lee curtis meade uh let's take a look back at well and sal stewart you didn't mention sal stewart yep uh let's take a look back at preseason second base adp according to fantasy pros the number one second baseman was jazz chisholm with an adp of 21.4 followed by cattell marte at 26.6 then bryce terang nico horner jose altuve luke kieschel ozzy albies seydan rafaela brandon lau xavier edwards matt mcclain and jackson holiday according to the fan graphs player raider just five of those 12 names finish inside of the top 12 so wasn't that predictable we did have some mainstays kind of fall off at the position a few other names emerge again some names gain eligibility that we weren't expecting the biggest bust at the position no doubt was jose altube altuve who had an adp inside the top 100 he finished 249th overall and at 36 years old it kind of looks like we might be there without tuve he hit 250 he had 16 home runs just five steals a 701 ops his lowest in a full season since 2013 uh the strikeout rate is rising his quality of contact has always been bad but it got even worse and look i guess in his defense he had an a grade two oblique strain in may which very easily could have derailed him but he didn't and he didn't have a great two things he's also like in his mid-30s so i this looks like kind of the beginning of the end for
Speaker 5jose altuve i i think it's the the might be the the middle of the end maybe closer to the end of the end because i think he's only got like one or two years left on that contract anyway so didn't they give him a five-year extension last year uh he runs until 2029 so yeah he's got three years left geez um but he's i
Speaker 6still found it i still found a way to get him in my top 20 for next year oh top 20
Speaker 5yeah i thought you were gonna say top 12 that was gonna be he's 18 i think
Speaker 6yeah i think we're
Speaker 5more or less done with jose altuve but and part of it is like like frank you mentioned the the oblique strain well that that'd be an okay excuse and then he had this big august and it's like oh okay maybe jose altuve no he had a sub 700 ops in september and it just yeah i think we're we're pretty much through here i do want
Speaker 6to give go ahead scott the biggest thing going for him is that his contract will keep him entrenched in the lineup yes yeah and like and he's an astro
Speaker 4he's an astros legend so he's
Speaker 6gonna unlike marcus simeon he can still hit 260 he's not gonna hit 220 you know and so he'll run into 15 homers or so probably not gonna steal many bases anymore and i'm just saying me saying altuve is in my top 20 next year isn't a defense of jose altuve it's an indictment of second base yeah that that was my
Speaker 4point i wanted to give a shout out here for jazz as one of the bigger busts in fantasy as well pretty big letdown with an adp of 21.4 he finished 91st overall power came down quite a bit the strikeouts went up 50 50 was a bad idea who knew could have seen that coming uh biggest breakout at the position go
Speaker 6ahead i'm sorry i keep stopping us i was surprised in retrospect you know obviously jazz chism the feeling as it was happening terrible year you came within a home run of a 2040 season yeah the counting stats were bad the counting stats were bad it's about the emptiest
Speaker 42040 season you could have
Speaker 6had he played seven more games than the previous year and he so 137 games a decent total it was
Speaker 5a bad season it wasn't a disaster
Speaker 6counting stats that bad like the runs and rbi is what we're talking
Speaker 5about uh he batted pretty low in the lineup for most of the year
Speaker 4he sat out against some lefties too like more more than previous
Speaker 6years yeah only 137 games and you're gonna go 2040 you would expect to have more runs in rbi
Speaker 5yeah and his most common batting spots were fifth and sixth which isn't a great spot lineup but it's not he's just never
Speaker 4been good in counting stats he he really just doesn't put the ball in play enough and yeah i haven't looked into like his numbers with runners in scoring position he's not really
Speaker 6specifically specifically the rbi they went from 80 to 55 even though he played in seven more games jazz chisholm so he he hits the open market this off season he's gonna miss yankee stadium somewhat but of course he was a really good fantasy player before he ever got to yankee stadium so he feels like a pretty good bounce back candidate to me for fantasy interested
Speaker 4to see where the adp winds up for for jazz heading into next season the biggest breakout at the position i would throw auto lopez out there though again he he no longer has second base eligibility uh we'll get to him i did include him on this podcast just because there's not many great second baseman to talk about um and if we want someone who's actually still second base eligibility i would throw brandon lau out there as chris like one of your famous re-breakouts he just stayed healthy in a contract year hit 35 home runs and had one of the best seasons of his career yeah i
Speaker 5mean i i think part of the problem with it though is he's basically been an identical hitter for four straight years like the batting average has gotten better um but otherwise i think he's been like the wrc plus 116 123 114 121 that's really consistent especially given how much the perception of brandon lau has changed in that time and it really just comes down to staying healthy um but like he did it in 2025 for the most part maybe there was one il stint i can't remember but he had 31 homers yeah uh an 83 rbi 79 runs hit 256 it's an awesome season from a second baseman and his adp only climbed like 20 spots from 2025 to 2026 and i think all three of us identified that as just one of the weirdest like maybe this is a little bit of an artifact of the nfbc looming large and how people view these things because no il spots i can see how you might be scared off of brandon lau but i mean we were talking about the most obvious edge you could find at second base and arguably at any position given the power he gave you like specifically the power brandon lau has had in the last couple of years and i think that's really important is a bigger edge than almost any other player at any other position and he was like 175 in adp it was it was very weird uh he will be significantly higher than that in 2027 i
Speaker 4think i really don't know i mean we'll see where he lands right
Speaker 6but just by process of elimination he would have to be but i would think so it is i think it'll be closer to
Speaker 5100 probably not inside the top 100
Speaker 6though it is like what really changed for brandon lau other than the fact that he's not going to be he you know the platoon the platoon concern was gone leaving tampa bay and he stayed healthy that was basically it he was the same guy yeah otherwise and it it he was a fan he was a fantasy monster but it was always there at a weak position and nobody seemed to want him the last few years it was it was really
Speaker 4weird yeah the adp the past three years for brandon lau 153 190 270 and that's going from 2026 back to 2024 so uh we'll be interesting to see where that lands in 2027 as well the sleeper at the position for this category i've been choosing like the player that basically came out of nowhere that everybody was sleeping on and that was cody clements who was a journeyman who played a whole lot with the twins this year and he had a fine season 27 homers 10 steals steals very solid stack has data under the hood as well don't have very high expectations for him heading into next year uh but we can talk about that a little bit later on because he did finish inside of the top 12 if you're watching on youtube live or on demand thank you we appreciate it make sure to hit that like button and let's take our first break when we return we'll break down the top 12 at second base from this past season we'll do that right after this baseball season is in full swing and there's no better place to be than calci america's number one prediction market platform atlanta is currently trading at seven percent to win it all meaning a 100 trade pays out over 1200 with a win on calci you're trading against other people in a live market no house no odds makers and as the odds move you can buy in or out anytime throughout the postseason download the calci app and use code fan to get up to 500 in bonus credits when you trade 25 dollars k-a-l-s-h-i calci trade on anything 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors calci products are not available in all jurisdictions prices values and available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information see calci.com regulatory delivered
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Speaker 4welcome back in fantasy baseball today the top 12 second baseman from this past season this is according to the fangraphs player rater and they measure based on five by five roto category leagues 12 team leagues as well i will also mention head-to-head points per game fantasy points per game for those playing points leagues your number one second baseman no surprise it was fernando tatis jr we spoke about him extensively on our redrafting the first two rounds podcast he provided 33 of roto value he was first in total head-to-head points on cbs 3.4 fantasy points per game also first at the position he hit 289 25 homers 38 steals probably his best all-around season since 2021 and he did not homer until the end of the season late may which is insane he took off big jump in bat speed chris feels like a consistent mid to late first round pick in 2027 that's where i think that he will consistently land in drafts for next
Speaker 5season yeah i think you can make a case for him as early as like sixth overall it would require i think being lower on like judge and otani and and really just getting out from those guys and i did see a little bit of speculation that otani might um might get more time off as a hitter next year as they try to keep him healthy so that's something to keep an eye on this offseason but i yeah i i think anywhere from 6 to 12 sounds reasonable for tatis especially with that second base eligibility you know it's funny you said the number one second baseman no surprise is fernando tatis and it's like well it's a little surprising that he has second base and it's a little surprising that he ended up the number one consensus player at any position given how badly he started the season i don't know if any of us ever fully gave up on him um but it was pretty dire in in the first couple of months of the season we've talked so much about it he changed his his batting stance he closed off early on in the season was trying to hit for more power it was basically the exact same thing that wrecked an entire season for jose ramirez back in 2019 i want to say um and as soon as he opened his stance up fernando tatis was arguably the best player not named peter armstrong in fantasy so the thing i really
Speaker 6season the thing i really want to stress with fernando tatis is that from my perspective he seemed like he seemed like one of those early round fake outs the past few years where he was never quite contributing up to the level you thought he would when you drafted him not that he was an out and out bust but it was like a little underwhelming for the the capital you invested in him the version we saw from may 30th on which was the day he fit us hit his first home run in 2026 was the best version of tatis we've seen since that monster 2021 season where he looked like the best player in fantasy with 42 home runs and 25 steals from uh for the season tatis averaged 3.41 fantasy points per game which is kind of a typical first rounder that's about what bobby witt did for the season for instance but from may 30th on just from may 30th on it was 4.03 head-to-head points per game which i believe was only topped by one hit micro armstrong yeah i'm
Speaker 5sure that was also true in roto
Speaker 6yeah yeah so he was he was like a monster from that point forward and i know partial season full season for statistics are more predictive than partial season statistics so i i don't want to make too much of that he ended up with exactly the next uh he's ended up with exactly 25 home runs three of the past four years including 2026 but he is only 27 and and it wasn't just a slump we felt like there was more in there we'd seen it before and i just wonder if experimenting with the stance and then getting back to his roots if if something kind of locked back in for tatis that maybe he could sustain going forward
Speaker 5i brought up the jose ramirez of it and he hasn't had a stretch like that again until this season when he was hurt yeah you know like i think this could be the kind of thing that just oh that was dumb i'm not gonna do that again because it was a conscious decision he made like it was it was a choice he made to be worse at baseball so i think he can just avoid that decision
Speaker 6that's almost a bonus since he's eligible at second base and since second base seems so weak like i i think tatis is my number six pick regardless um but it's possible he can end up outperforming like i'd take tatis over james wood i've decided i wouldn't over judge rotani at least as things stand now but over james wood i i would take tatis if only for that second base eligibility but there's possibly more there statistically too yeah i agree
Speaker 4completely i think my baseline expectation is 25 homers 30 to 35 steals but man if he can carry over that pace from late may on he was basically on a near 40 40 pace from that point and he he could still have that upside in the prime of his career the number two second baseman could be on your well he is on the could be eventual world series winning likely milwaukee brewers and that is bryce terang who seems to have settled in as a 25-year-old baseball player and he's been batting average good counting stats the past couple of years he provided 26.4 of roto value he was third in total fantasy points at second base 3.3 fantasy points per game was second behind only tatis he hit 268 21 homers 19 steals 200 runs plus rbi maintained the big jump in bat speed and quality of contact he did overperform his expected stats he doesn't pull the ball in the air but he's he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the air he's got the ball in the mostly feel like we can trust it right with bryce terang
Speaker 6yeah i i think so i i got a little frustrated with him during the season because he started so hot and then um things got a little bumpy in the second half you see the batting average only ended up 268 you expect him you drafted him thinking he'd be a plus in that category but a most of that second half slump was because he was playing through knee tendonitis in august so it was specifically that month that was horrible for terang and b the 100 rbi and 102 runs helped to smooth over whatever rough edges remain here because you know the the prominent spot in the brewers lineup uh just makes him a counting stat machine there opposite of jazz chism i guess yeah clear clear number two at this position for next year to bryce terang i would say no argument for anyone else chris any
Speaker 5thoughts on bryce terang before we move on i see no reason to doubt it he's been a slightly well He's been a very different player over the course of the past three years. Slightly different last year versus this year, but I think the 2020 feels pretty real. I think 268 is closer to floor than the ceiling for the batting average. I think he's an awesome player.
Speaker 4All right, let's move on to the number three, second baseman, and that was the aforementioned Brandon Lau, one of the consistently profitable players in fantasy. Stayed healthy for 150 games, and he had an awesome season, provided $23 of Roto value, fourth in total fantasy points at second base, three fantasy points per game, was tied for fourth at the position. He hit 260, 35 homers, 94 runs, 96 RBI, the best power bat at the position easily. It's not close, but there are questions here. He's 32 years old. He's a free agent. He has a lengthy injury history, and he overperformed his expected stats. Very interested, again, like I said earlier, where the ADP lands. I think if it's in the 100 to 120 range, I think there's probably a pretty good chance that he's profitable once again.
Speaker 5Yeah, I think the biggest question is where he signs. You know, being a lefty, being in his 30s, you know, he'll be 33 next July. I can see the market being pretty cold on him and not having, you know, a huge opportunity to, like, not necessarily getting the kind of payday that demands. Like, every single day at bats, if he's not hitting well against lefties, you know, you could see him landing in the wrong ballpark. But absent any of that, and I don't think any of that's guaranteed, I don't see any reason. Like, I hope we finally reach the point where people stop downgrading Brandon Lau.
Speaker 6Maybe not. We'll see. He brought a ton of defensive value this past year for what it's worth, too. He ended up being a 5.4 war player. On baseball reference, 4.9 on Fangraph, so pretty similar between the two. A 5-win player. But, you know, 32 is getting up there. So, yeah, you don't want him to go to San Francisco. You don't want him to go to San Diego. But, I don't know. There are probably a couple other spots that wouldn't be great for Brandon Lau, but for the most part.
Speaker 5So, you know, probably, yeah. You know, I think there's a
Speaker 6few spots you wouldn't want him to
Speaker 5go to.
Speaker 6What's going to. What's going to be tricky, presuming he lands in a nice spot, just the mental hurdle of, I could have gotten this guy around pick. Oh, yeah. 200 or close to it the past few years. And now, I mean, I have him as my fifth second baseman for next year. So, I doubt he's going to make it outside the top 100. And, like, does that feel like an automatic loss? It doesn't. It never feels great. I get psychologically why it does, and yet, I don't think this is beyond Brandon Lau's capabilities. And so, it's just, you're having to pay a little more betting on the health now than you did the past few years. But it's still probably a winning bet. I agree. Probably. If it's low, if it's hot, if he's drafted in the 80s or 90s, let's say.
Speaker 5I mean. Look, I think any time you're talking about a player, you're talking about a player, you're talking about a player, especially an established player who's getting a 75-pick jump in ADP, it is probably more, like, there are many more ways for things to go wrong when you're talking about that price, right? Like, that's, you know, a couple of IL stints instead of just one IL stint could be enough to make you feel bad about that pick. But, I don't know how much more likely that is for him than Cattell Marte, who's probably going to have a similar price, you know?
Speaker 6Somebody in the team, in the chat is saying it's batting average. The fact Lau hit 260 this year was a shocker. He hit 256 last year. He's a career 250 hitter.
Speaker 5I would probably put my expectations around 250. So, he maybe overperformed a little bit. And, like, His XBA was 240, so. And 250 means you can hit 240 just as easily as you hit 260, right? Like, that's. And, but, like, again, that's true for a lot of players. Bryce Terang was mildly disappointing in batting average. He only hit eight points better than Brandon Lau. I think he's. He's a better bet for batting average. But, yeah. It's not like. It's not like Brandon Lau is a. a surefire negative in batting average the way I think Cody Clemons probably is to cite, you know, a player you could probably do, like, the. the off-brand version of Brandon Lau, right? You can make that case for Cody Clemons, but, like, I think he's definitely going to be a low batting average guy. Whereas that's not necessarily the case for Lau.
Speaker 6My rule of thumb, and. It's been my rule of thumb for a long time. I maybe need to update it slightly, but every player is capable of hitting within 30 points of his career batting average in either direction. Yep. That's a. Well, that's a 60-point range, basically, that every player is capable of.
Speaker 5Without their skill set changing all that much, yeah.
Speaker 4Yeah. Mm-hmm. How high would the ADP have to be for Brandon Lau in 2027 where you would say, eh, that might be a little bit too high?
Speaker 5A top 80, I'd probably be. A little scared off.
Speaker 4I don't think it'll be that high.
Speaker 6I don't think it will be either.
Speaker 5I think there's no way.
Speaker 6I think it'll be 85 to 95. And I'd be fine with them there. But inside the top 80, like Chris is saying.
Speaker 4I wouldn't be surprised if it was outside the top 100. Yeah, I think 100 to 120 still. Okay. Yeah. And not still. I mean, it still would be 30 or 40 points higher than last year, but.
Speaker 6I could see it in, like, NFBC and that often ADP conversations get framed around that just because they're the first to be. the first to be released. And there is definitely a bias against non-base dealers, I would say, on that platform. Yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 4The number four second baseman was Otto Lopez, who, again, does not have second base eligibility anymore. He is shortstop only. I guess there's a chance he could regain second base eligibility if he's traded somewhere else. His name, him and Xavier Edwards' names have already popped up in trade rumors, so we'll see what happens there. But he provided $22.7 of RotoValue He was second in total fantasy points at second base. 3.2 fantasy points per game. Was third at the position. He hit.305, 11 homers, 94 runs, 34 steals. He makes a lot of contact. He was much more aggressive on the bases this year, up from 15 to 34 steals. Under the hood, Chris, it looks like Otto Lopez was unlucky in 2025. And then it looks like perhaps he was just a little bit lucky here in 2026. I don't know that I would expect. smack daddy in the middle. I think I would still expect closer to 2026, but probably not as good as he was this past season.
Speaker 5Yeah, so right in the middle would be. Let's see, 278 batting average, 13 homers, 80 runs, 75 RBI, 25 stolen bases. Actually, that's a pretty good projection. Yeah, that feels pretty reasonable for him, and that would be a disappointment after the season he just had. But I don't really think anybody should. think Otto Lopez is as good as the season he just had. I think this is almost certainly going to be the best season of his career. And we saw it in the second half. He crashed hard after the All-Star break. He hit, like, what, 230, 240, something after the All-Star break? It was that low. Let's see. 259, okay. It was bad. Still bad for a guy who was leading the majors in batting average at the All-Star break, I believe. So I think he's closer to a 270, 280 hitter. I think he's probably. probably a dozen or so homer guy. I think the steals are the big question, actually. Because if he goes back to being a 15-steal guy, that's a pretty fringy player. But if he's a 30-steal guy, then you can make it work no matter what the specific range everything else falls in. The one thing I will say is just he rated out spectacularly well at shortstop. According to Fangraphs, he was, like, one of the five most valuable defensive players in baseball, I think. And I think he's probably the most valuable defensive player in baseball. I don't know if it makes any sense for some team to trade for him to play him at second base. I certainly don't think it makes any sense for the Marlins to play him at second base unless, like. Definitely not. I don't know. Ivar Arquette, I think is how you pronounce his name, gets ready a lot quicker than anybody thinks. But other than that, I don't really think Otto Lopez is going to play much second base at all. Yeah. Why are we talking about him here?
Speaker 6He's a shortstop for next year.
Speaker 5Well, because we're probably not going to talk that much about him on shortstop.
Speaker 4Yeah, there's. There's so many other shortstops I want to talk about. Yeah, I think he's, like,
Speaker 5a fringe top 12 guy at shortstop, whereas if he was. I got him ninth at shortstop. Okay, I have him 11th. Gosh, okay. You have him ahead of Jeremy Pena? Sorry, we'll talk about that on the shortstop episode on Wednesday. Stay tuned to Fantasy Baseball Today.
Speaker 6I know. Apparently not. Frank's saying we got to get all our Lopez talk out now at second base where he's not going to be eligible next year.
Speaker 5That's right. Talk about him now. Yeah, I think that's. I think this almost certainly goes down as the best season of his career. I would think he's probably more like a. The first thought that came to mind was, like. And this might come off as more offensive than I mean, but, like, kind of like what Geraldo Perdomo. How dare you. did this season, but maybe, hopefully, more stolen bases? I don't know. Perdomo. He hit.262. I guess I'd hope for better than that. But it was.262, nine homers, 21 steals.
Speaker 6Yeah, I think the other numbers are full. I was honestly, again, we're talking about second base here, not shortstop, so I don't want to go too far down this path. But Perdomo's season actually ended up being a lot better than it felt as it was happening. He was just there.
Speaker 4It was just relative to where he was drafted, but yeah.
Speaker 6So I don't think it's that offensive or whatever word you use to compare Lopez to him. But I do think Lopez, you would give more batting average. I guess I'm slightly more optimistic, which is why I'm ranking Lopez ninth at shortstop instead of 11th, that he can be a regular 300-ish hitter. Not that he's going to be Louisa Rise competing for the batting title every year, but he's going to be in the vicinity of 300 moving forward. And he's already 28, so how many years can he do that? I don't know. But I think next year, if we just take Lopez's full season numbers, say, okay, this is a 300-hitting, 10-homer, 30-steal guy, that's where that slot's at shortstop for me at next year, which is kind of an indictment of shortstop. But not being as strong as it used to be. But we'll get to that with a couple of pots from now.
Speaker 5Scott and Frank, call up your GMs and tell them to offer the three best prospects in your system for Otto Lopez. We'll get those deals done. You could both use them. We could. Best we could do is Clint
Speaker 4Frazier and Miguel Andujar.
Speaker 6You're going to pass on that one. It feels like Edgar Renteria was a great shortstop for the Braves. I'm pretty sure. Any team that had Edgar Renteria, you're a fan of any team that had him, was happy.
Speaker 4Yeah. He was very solid. I have thought about this kind of Yankee trade with Otto Lopez a little bit. It would require Dax Kilby to be in it, right?
Speaker 5Oh, 100%. No, I was thinking about this the other day. You sure you don't want Spencer Jones and Jason Dominguez? I was thinking about this the other day. I think discussions start with what the Dodgers gave up for Tarek Skubal. Two top 100, but probably like a top 20 prospect at the top. Yeah. He's got three years of club control left. I mean, that's Dax Kilby.
Speaker 6Pretty much so. I mean, George Lombard seems like he has a pretty good future. I don't know that the Yankees have to upgrade there.
Speaker 4No, they don't necessarily. That's why if he went there, he might play second base, but he also. We'll take Lombard. It's probably just better defensively than George Lombard. Anyway, whatever. That's a tangent. Not to confuse people anymore, but. The number five second baseman was Luis Garcia Jr., who no longer has second base eligibility. And we spoke about him on our first base podcast. So on to Cedon Rafaela, who was the number five second baseman, who also no longer has second base eligibility. So there you go. Confusing. He is also much better in roto and category leagues than he is in points leagues, Cedon Rafaela. But he provided $13.5 of roto value, 2.7 fantasy points per game, tied for 15th at the position, hit 285. 16 homers, 17 steals, and 138 games. He's got some power and speed. He's lowered the strikeout rate the past couple of years. He has made improvements. He also remains incredibly aggressive at the plate and has overperformed his expected stats a lot. His stat cast data also took a huge step back this season. Scott, Rafaela is in his prime. I don't see a huge ceiling here. I kind of just think he is what he is, which is fine. Like 15 homers, 20 steals, something like that.
Speaker 6Yeah, that's putting a lot. That's putting a lot on the batting average, though, if you're only going to be a 15-15 guy. And I think it's unlikely Rafaela repeats as high as 285 year after year. I'm not saying he's incapable of doing it. He doesn't strike out much, but he's very aggressive. And there's not a lot of raw power there. He hit less than 250 each of his first three years, the three years leading up to the 285 year. So, you know, here we are talking about a non-second baseman on the second base show again, not what I came prepared to do.
Speaker 4Who played in this show?
Speaker 6But having already ranked my outfielders, I can tell you, even at Roto, Cedon Rafaela only comes out to 46th for me in the outfield.
Speaker 5I agree. I was worried. I was going to be the one that was too low on Cedon Rafaela. I just, I am not a fan of this skill set at all. Just, I. Terrible plate, some of the worst plate discipline in the league, and doesn't have. The raw physical tools to make up for it. I think there are some, like. Like, you know how frustrating the Michael Harris experience has been over the years? I think Michael Harris is a lot more talented of a hitter than Cedon Rafaela. I think the low points here are unplayable. And I think there's a chance we get one of those seasons where it's just all low points. And he's just not even fantasy relevant. He's going to play a lot, but. That's about the best thing he has going for him. A great real-life player, by the way.
Speaker 4Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Like, he's an amazing defender. Probably the. I mean, I was going to say the best. The second best center fielder in baseball.
Speaker 5Hey, I think the fielding bible, technically, it was either he was the center fielder and Pekor Armstrong won the platinum glove, or the opposite. I'm not sure how that happened, but he's, like, not far from Pekor Armstrong. I don't think he's quite as, like, flashy, but he's really good out there.
Speaker 4He really, really is. Let's take our final break. When we return, back into the top 12 second baseman from this past season, right after this.
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Speaker 4Welcome back, Fantasy Baseball. Today, your second base recap. We are up to the number six second baseman, and that was Cody Clemons, a journeyman who turned in a mid-career breakout, provided nearly $13, of Roto value. He was 15th in total fantasy points at second base, 2.8 fantasy points per game, hit 239, 27 homers, 81 RBI, 10 steals. I know that we shouldn't, and most likely won't, buy into a 30-year-old breakout, but a lot of the underlying stuff here was very good. 91.9 average EV and 11% barrel rate. He got a chance to play every day. He was decent against left-handed pitching. Chris, I don't have high expectations, but I don't think the drafting, public will either. I kind of think Cody Clemons will be an afterthought for next season.
Speaker 5Yeah, and he probably should be. I'm not going to say he shouldn't matter at all for fantasy, but he wasn't really in serious consideration for a top 12 spot for me. I think you can maybe make a case for him as a top 15 second baseman, but I think that's kind of an indictment of the position because the power is real. I'm not sure anything else here really is above average as far as MLB skill sets, so nice player. I think if you're starting him in 2027, you're probably at a deficit there.
Speaker 6I don't really disagree with anything you said, and yet I am much higher on Clemons now than I was a year ago, which you could call his breakout year 2025. He had 19 home runs in 119 games, had an OPS over 700 for the first time. It was a little better. 715 in 2025, 758 in 2026. But my thinking then was, okay, this was obviously just a minor league journeyman filling an open spot in the lineup, and we'll never hear from Cody Clemons again. We clearly did hear from Cody Clemons again, and I think to the point that we can now say, yes, he is the twin second baseman. So, you know, 2025 home runs next year again is possible, probably with a low batting average. I would take the under on the steals. He had 10 of them. I would expect fewer than that, but that's enough to get him 16th. For me, at second base next year, Cody Clemons.
Speaker 4Also has first base and outfield eligibility, but again, second base is not great. So perhaps it's as a middle infielder, or if you play in Roto, you know, a fourth or fifth outfielder, something like that. So awesome, awesome bench piece. If you can get him at that price. Good, good player for drafted hold leagues. If you play in like a draft champions or some kind of format like that, just a guy that you can move around to three different positions. Number seven at second base was Jazz Chisholm, who? had a letdown of a season in his contract year, provided nearly 13 dollars of roto value 2.7 fantasy points per game was tied for 15th at second base hit 231 19 homers 41 steals the ops dropped by over 100 points his average exit velocity went up but the rest of his stack cast data took a pretty big step back i doubt that he's back with the yankees in 2027 um might have to settle for some kind of like one year pillow contract if we're being honest i i see a very wide range for jazz here i think on the high end he can get back to being a 30 30 player for fantasy which would be awesome it will come with a low batting average and he's just never provided counting stats i think on the low end like if he goes to a contender and he's just not performing i mean he could lose playing time he might just like lose out on a job like all together i really think that's like on the low end possibility for jazzyism next season
Speaker 6you I'd be surprised if that happened he still is
Speaker 4a good defender so that helps
Speaker 6yeah and and like he's playable at a few different positions and if you're going to make any kind of financial investment in him even if it is a pillow contract like you said like i i think the i think you'd want to see that through um you know if i doubt a team signs him that has a great alternative at second base unless they're planning to shift them to one of those other positions he's played before so i i i'm not so worried i think we saw closer to the downside outcome for jazzyism this past year uh the not i'm not saying he couldn't get worse than this but i i think this is closer to the low end than not and he still went 20 40 very nearly and like again i think 20 40 particularly at second base puts him in the top five conversation uh i'm expecting the rbi and runs to pick up at least on a per game basis next year if there is some injury risk with jism that might be that the most the biggest concern but if he goes 20 40 again a combined 60 of those two the rbi and runs are going to be higher next year just mathematically they have to be i feel like so uh i'm slotting jism in fourth at second base uh i could tell marty third jism fourth the normal one and two have moved down a couple spots third and fourth and i feel pretty good about it subject to change depending where he signs of course but i i i think it would take an extraordinary situation as far as that goes for me to lower chism from fourth it is very
Speaker 5interesting how much different the tenor is in the discussion between how we talked about brandon lau and how we talked about jazz chism and then i was sitting here thinking man am i gonna look dumb for having jazz chism ranked above brandon lau but no scott also has him so if i look dumb scott you're right there with me i'm together over the clef together but yeah i i think i have the same exact top five maybe top six maybe top seven uh we'll see um but yeah i think yeah it's it's likelier than not the jazz chism ends up underrated than overrated you
Speaker 4guys have the same names in the top five there's one slight difference and then uh scott has luke kieschel at number six and then chris has jj weatherholtz so
Speaker 5oh okay no scott lied to me is what it was oh really you said you had just fourth yeah and i did lie i believed you is really that's all that's on
Speaker 6me clearly so i ranked roto and head-to-head points simon at the same time it's marty third chism fourth and head-to-head points and roto which is mainly what we're talking about here chism third marty fourth i just i got it confused in my head i didn't mean to lie
Speaker 4well let's talk about one of those names uh that scott has here at his number six second baseman for this for next season that is luke kieschel and it was a tale of two seasons for him overall he wound up with twelve dollars of roto value seventh in total fantasy points 2.8 fantasy points per game the first three months he hit 245 with two homers 12 steals and a 645 ops from july on hit 324 eight homers steals 930 ops honestly it's a tough it's a tough evaluation for me and maybe it's easier for you guys it sounds like scott's pretty excited for him um strong plate discipline makes a lot of contact but he doesn't hit the ball hard at all he doesn't pull the ball in the air enough and the expected stats did not buy that second half at all so uh he's also very fast but like just didn't steal enough bases this year so it all kind of comes out as a kind of tough evaluation for him so i think it's a tough evaluation for him i think it's a tough evaluation for me scott where are you yeah
Speaker 6i'm excited i'm excited you say he doesn't pull the ball in the air enough it got better it got a lot better in the second half which is why he hit eight of his ten home runs in the second half and he was pretty good at that in the minors too so i i think he's trending the right way as far as that goes kieschel does and i think he's shown now that there is he he can put the ball over the fence some enough i think for as good as he's going to be at everything else i think he's i think you could think of luke kieschel from a five by five perspective as a more powerful nico horner or a less powerful uh what's that guy's name nico or bryce terang a more powerful nico horner or a less powerful bryce terang like kieschel's range of outcomes is somewhere between the two i think he's going to be a plus for batting average i think it points leagues he looks even better because he walks ton and doesn't strike out much but i think he's trending up i i one of my bold predictions for 2027 an article i came out with uh in early september i think was that luke kieschel will actually outperform bryce terang next year it's not likely but it is it is possible i think it's in the range of outcomes for both of those players and uh you know you mentioned i have kieschel six that second base for next year just to show how much i like him because he's also eligible in the outfields so i think he's going to be an outfield i have him 26th in the outfield so pretty high on him i think
Speaker 5the biggest thing for me is i wish i was more sure he was good anywhere but batting average like i wish i could feel confident he'd be a 20 homer guy or i wish i could feel confident he'd be a 30 steel guy i do
Speaker 4think he's going to score a lot of runs but
Speaker 5yeah i i think so i think he's a very very good like he was 374 on base it was like that's got to be close but i think he's going to score a lot of runs to top 10 in baseball if not and he's actually basically their
Speaker 4leadoff hitter from like july or
Speaker 5august on so but i just like he was a really good base stealer in 2025 uh stole was it 25 bases in less than 80 games between the majors and the minors and then he only stole 20 and 152 games and he was very inefficient and that's the thing like i i think he's got the speed to be a 30 steel guy and i'd feel a lot better about it all if he was a 30 steel guy yeah otherwise the the outcomes start to look a little bryson stoddy um and look bryson stott's been a viable low-end starter and i think there's more upside for luke kieschel certainly but i just wish i had more confident in him being a standout somewhere else i think we'd
Speaker 6like bryson stott a lot more in fantasy though if he played every day guaranteed because that's always been iffy with him if he batted high in the lineup if he got on base at a 370 clip like kieschel does so that you know a lot more runs come from that yeah i think we'd like stottle like i think we'd think of stott as a pretty high-end fantasy player if all those areas where kieschel excels beyond you know like i don't think that's as much of an indictment as you may we've used that word a lot i don't think that's as much of an indictment as you're making it sound i think there are the differences looking beyond just home runs and stolen bases the differences between kieschel and stott are pretty stark
Speaker 4i like that type of player too it feels like there are this mold is pretty popular amongst middle infielders specifically second base where you can look at someone like bryson stott or nico horner as kind of like the low end kind of look at it as almost like a three evolution type pokemon thing where the the starter that you get nico horner or bryson stott the middle evolution is like a luke kieschel or an otto lopez and then the third evolution is bryce terang if you can get them and and that's where we're at and i think all i think all three type i think that type of mold is very valuable to have as your second baseman or middle infielder so um i don't know if i can completely trust it yet with kieschel but yeah he obviously was a top prospect comes with a lot of pedigree uh and was awesome the final three months of the season your number nine second baseman was luis arise the best baseman in the batting average bounce back pretty typical season for him 10.9 of roto value he was sixth in total fantasy points 2.8 fantasy points per game the batting average bounce back from 292 to 310 he had his usual six homers 10 steals not great counting stats he is a free agent this off season we'll see where he lands uh but i i think chris we pretty much know what to expect from luis arise
Speaker 5you need batting average he's got that you need home runs you need steals you need runs you need rbi need anything else he's got batting average he is a good points league player so if you just yeah sure but like His two best seasons are probably 2023 and then some combination of 24, 26, whatever. The best he's given you is 10 home runs and 10 steals. I guess he somehow had an 88-run season in 2022, but he hasn't been better than 83. He's never had more than 69 RBIs. It's just like he is a one-category guy. And if your team needs that category and it's time to draft Luis Urias, you should draft Luis Urias. And if your team doesn't need batting average, you should take Luis Urias off your board. And it's a little more complicated, I guess, in a points league because he's just kind of a little better there. But his strengths and weaknesses are as clear as any player in baseball. And you can reach a point where you have too much batting average on your team in a roto league. And it's not worth carrying a player like Luis Urias, even though, in theory, he's a top 10 second baseman.
Speaker 4I'm very interested to see where he winds up this offseason because, according to StatCast, expected home runs by Park, there were five different venues where his home run total would have doubled this season. That includes Cincinnati, Philadelphia, if he played a full year there, Sacramento, Detroit, and New York with the Yankees.
Speaker 6Because I made that case when he was traded to Philadelphia at the trade deadline. I know, maybe he'll make it to double-digit home runs. Okay, it was only a two-month sample, I guess you could say, so not definitive. But it's not like the power increased for Urias at all from making that change.
Speaker 5I think the thing is, maybe it will. And maybe you could get him to 10 or 11 home runs. But I think he is hurt by a smaller field. Because he needs to run outlier batting averages to have any value. The difference between Luis Urias hitting four home runs and 11 home runs is not that much. The difference between Luis Urias hitting 285 and 315 is huge. He's basically not valuable for fantasy if he hits 285.
Speaker 6I kind of think he'll hit 300 anywhere, but it's a good point. I actually thought San Francisco was a pretty good fit for him for that reason. So much outfield for the ball to fall for Luis Urias. It'll be much more competitive, the free agent market for Urias this year than last year because he improved so much defensively. But yeah, it is a question that needs to be answered. Where do you rank Urias in Roto Leagues for next year, Chris? 10th? 11th? I have him 12th, but the point, either way, it's like it's higher than I ever remember ranking Urias, even though he hasn't changed.
Speaker 5It's an indictment of the position. Okay, I guess I could move Ozzy Albies ahead of him, but I think Ozzy Albies is kind of bad now. Sam Antinacci, I like the skill set. I just don't know if the playing time is going to be where it needs to be. He's another one of
Speaker 4those Bryson Stott evolution.
Speaker 5Yeah, Cole Young I think is kind of interesting, but there probably needs to be another step forward. Like I said, I think there are nine second basemen I feel pretty good about starting, and Luis Urias is 10th.
Speaker 6So let me guess the two since I have Urias 12th. Albies is one. It sounds like I have Albies ahead of Urias, and you don't. Is Travis Bazzana the other? No, I have Travis Bazzana below him. So Bryson Stott must be the other. Nope. Do you go on? The ones I have ahead of him? The ahead of Urias. Yeah, I have two.
Speaker 5I have Hoarder and Xavier Edwards ahead of him. Yeah, Scott, you were right. So you have Bazzana ahead, and Chris doesn't. Oh, okay. Those are the guys you have ahead of him.
Speaker 6Yeah, okay. So it's Bazzana and Albies. Okay. Although you have Edwards ahead, and I don't. So there must be a third one.
Speaker 4No. It's Stott. I looked into this earlier. Oh, it's Stott. Scott, you have Stott and Bazzana in your top 12, and then Chris has Xavier Edwards and Sam Antonacci. Those were the differences in your top 12. Oh, yeah. Number 10 at second base was Old Reliable. That is Bryson Stott. Like Arise, not similar skill set, but just similar in terms of, like, you know what you're going to get from Bryson Stott. This guy is like a fantasy metronome. It's just like year in and year out. $10.7 of Roto value. Eighth in total fantasy points at the position. 2.7 fantasy points per game. He hit.256, 10 homers, 71 runs, 67 RBI, 27 steals. Consistent high floor player for fantasy. Performed better against lefties this year and actually got the opportunity to play pretty consistently against lefties once Don Mattingly took over as the manager. So that was good to see. But you know what you're getting. It's.250 to.260, 10 to 12 homers, 25-ish steals. I usually wind up with.250 to.260. I usually wind up with him on a lot of my teams. If it's a 15-teamer, he might be my second baseman. If it's a 12-teamer, he's probably my middle infielder.
Speaker 5There's a lot of this type of player where the final numbers are like, oh, that was pretty good. He had a pretty good season. At no point during the season do you really ever think, wow, I'm really happy I have Bryson Stott around. You just forget about him. It's just you leave him in there and it's. Yeah, really do not need to upgrade that position. Like, yeah, at the end of the season, he'll probably finish top 10 or so. But you should try to do better than Bryson Stott. If you can't, that's fine. He's a great fallback option. But I think on the whole, he is not a player you're ever happy that you have in the lineup.
Speaker 6I guess one thing I should point out about his 2026 is that he gained two miles per hour in average exit velocity, which is a pretty big increase. It did not impact his numbers at all. But if there's truth to it, if that's something he can repeat, then it might have an impact on his numbers at some point. Like, it's not hard to envision a 15-home or 30-steal outcome from Bryson Stott. He's not far off from that already. What was it, 10 and 27?
Speaker 510 and 27, yeah.
Speaker 6And he's gotten 12 or 13 home runs in a season before.
Speaker 5He got to 15. He had a 15-30 season. Oh, he's already done it once.
Speaker 6Okay, yeah. I mean, if he's going to. He was very good. If he's going to continue to hit the ball as hard moving forward as he did in 2026, then maybe there is some room for improvement there, which is part of the reason why I have Bryson Stott 11th. Part of it's just second base is bad. Somebody's got to be there, you know?
Speaker 4Yeah, exactly. To your point about the average exit velocity, his expected stats were also the best of his career. The pulled air rate was a career-high 15.8%. It didn't really come out in the numbers, but some of the underlying stuff was pretty intriguing there.
Speaker 6Yeah, all three of those areas improving, you would expect career-best numbers. That's something to mull over.
Speaker 4We'll continue on with the theme of confusing the audience. Your number 11 second baseman this season was Zach Geloff, who no longer has second base eligibility, but he does have third base in outfield. I guess there was a chance he could regain second base, but. He only needs five, you know? That was his worst defensive position this past season, so I'm not so sure. Big bounce back for him, $10.7 of Roto value, three fantasy points per game was tied for fifth. At second base, hit.256, 22 homers, 16 steals. Did that in just 111 games. Full season pace, 32 homers, 110 runs, 23 steals. I think he's another interesting evaluation. He made improvements in plate discipline, nice jump in bat speed, but he also overperformed his expected numbers by quite a bit, and his stats were helped out by those six just insane games that he played in that Las Vegas ballpark, where I think he hit.388, with three home runs and 10 RBI, which actually tacked on a good amount to his totals this season. I think he's another player with a wide range of outcomes, is Zach Gelof.
Speaker 5Do you guys remember how the story of his not carrying over second base eligibility happened? No. He made his 19th appearance at second base on August 29th. Oh. And never played there again in, what, the final full four weeks of the season? Brutal. That, like, because, yeah, you'd feel a little better about him if he was carrying second base eligibility. I don't think he's going to be top 12 at third base, and I'm not sure he's a starting caliber outfielder, but he'd probably be a top 12 or close second baseman. I, having said all of that.
Speaker 6I'm a lot higher on Gelof than you for next year, it sounds like. Go ahead. Go ahead and get to your point.
Speaker 5I don't buy it at all. Okay. Like, I think he's probably better than what he had showed in the past. But I think the floor is still unplayably bad. I don't, like, I'm not sure if he has options left at this point, so. The floor is, he's back in the minors or, you know, just. He does have two options left. So the floor is, he's back in AAA. I, like, there were, I don't want to say there were no improvements. He did get, he cut his strikeout rate to 24%, which is.
Speaker 6Yeah, that's a huge improvement.
Speaker 5But when you look at the underlying, stuff, there was, like, a little bit of improvement in zone contact rate. He chased less. I'm not saying there was no improvement here for Zach Gelof, but. It doesn't all point to, you know, a 10% improvement in strikeout rate from where he was in 2024, which is the last time we really saw it. And he doesn't really impact the ball hard enough to be a, a standout offensively. The ballpark. definitely helps, but that 323X WOBO was actually worse than what he ran as a rookie.
Speaker 6The rookie season looked fake. Sure. But there were real improvements here, skill improvements. The chase rate is good. He doesn't chase much. The zone contact rate is just kind of normal bad now. It was unplayably bad before, and now it's just kind of normal bad. How often he swings and misses at pitches in the zone, or how much he makes contact with swings and pitches in the zone, I guess technically, but tells you the same thing. So the big improvement, huge improvement in strikeout rate. He was also one of the biggest gainers in average bat speed. It was nearly two mile per hour increase in average bat speed for Zach Geloff. If he wasn't playing his home games in Sacramento next year, I'd be a lot more concerned. But he is, as far as we know. And so he's still going to have that huge benefit. And we can't understate how good he was. He had a couple of IL stints. For lacerations, I think both were for lacerations. So it wasn't like recurring tissue stuff. He just got cut. You pace out his 22 homers and 16 steals over 162 games, it comes out to 32 homers and 23 steals. And so if you buy that he can be a 250 hitter with that improved strikeout rate and bat speed, I mean, Geloff, for Roto, I have Geloff eighth at third base for next year.
Speaker 5Yeah, not at all the same for me.
Speaker 6And in the outfield, I have him 27th.
Speaker 5Yeah, he's going to be 41 at outfield and looking at 15 at third base right now. I really don't buy it. Maybe I'm totally open to being wrong. I just, I think the surface level improvements don't stand up to as much scrutiny once you look under the hood.
Speaker 4No, I think that's a good representation of just the fact that Geloff is a good player. I think that's a good representation of just the fact that Geloff is a good player. Zach Geloff, because I think he has a wide range of outcomes. And again, Scott is kind of like playing on that high end. And then Chris, you're kind of leaning towards that lower end. And I think it's just a good reflection of, you know, where people are going to be for Zach Geloff. I think we might have like quite a lot of differing opinions on Zach Geloff heading into next season. The number 12 second baseman was Cattell Marte. Is the decline happening? $10.2 of Roto value. He was tied for ninth in total fantasy points. Three fantasy points per game. Was tied for fifth at the position. He hit.249, 22 homers, 748 OPS. Really took a step back in the second half. Had some back stiffness that he dealt with in July. I guess that could have influenced the second half. The power metrics took a step back. But he was actually a big underperformer in the expected stats. Had some more off the field stuff this year. I have to imagine he's going to get traded away from the D-backs. Do we bet on a Cattell Marte bounce back in his age 33 season?
Speaker 6I mean, I'm ranking him fourth for Roto, third for head-to-head points. So that's a lean yes. Obviously, he's been higher in the past. But there weren't second basemen as good as Fernando Tatis or even Bryce Durang in the past. So, for the most part, I'm counting on a bounce back. The knee was the big issue, health issue, in the second half. That's why he went AWOL is because he was frustrated. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. With how his rehabilitation was going with that. He was playing through it a lot. And so I think that's a pretty easy explanation for why Cattell Marte's numbers tanked. Because he was on pace for a pretty typical season before then. And it was just playing through that knee injury crushed him. But he is 33. And these kind of injuries are going to become more common, you would expect, as he's in his mid-30s now. And we don't know where he's playing next year. I mean, it was a. It was not received well, him going AWOL, as you wouldn't expect it to be. No, it shouldn't be. But since this wasn't the first time he had frustrated management in that sort of way, it's reasonable to think he's going to be shipped out of town. And, you know, there might be a lot of teams that just say no on principle when they're approached with a trade offer. So. That's the big question mark for Marte, where he's going to play. But in terms of how he's going to perform, as long as he stays healthy, just a big hit if at his age, I think he'll still be really good.
Speaker 5Yeah, I don't expect to bounce back to like 900 OPS, 30 to 35 homer guy. But his underlying. Because his underlying skill sets did take a little bit of a stumble in 2026. And to be fair, we've seen that. We've seen that from him before. And then he's bounced back. But obviously, it's harder to expect that when he's 34, 33 this year compared to 30 last time it happened. But I think something like 280, something like 25 homers, probably really good run in RBI numbers depending on where he lands. But you have to think it's going to be a good team.
Speaker 6I'll also point out average exit velocity in the first half for Cattell Marte was 91. And then it was 88.7 in the second half. So part of the declining. Data points that you're referring to were just him playing through the knee injury, I think.
Speaker 5That's a good point. There is some stuff when you look in versus lefties versus righties. He is a switch hitter. He obviously faces more righties. And his numbers from the left side declined quite a bit. 386X Woba in 2025, 338 in 2026, nearly a two mile per hour decline in average exit velocity. Maybe that's partially explained by the. knee injury, but it's not quite as clear cut in that regard. So I think expecting a bounce back to 2025 or 2024, probably asking too much. Just given his age, it's not impossible, but you shouldn't do that with a guy in their mid-30s. Yeah, I look. Go ahead, Chris. But like 280, 25 homers, I think that's a really fair expectation.
Speaker 4I think that's perfectly put. I write down just like a median expectation for all the players that I've researched so far. And for him, I wrote 270 to 280, 25-ish home runs, 80-ish runs, 80-ish RBI, and like a handful of steals. He's probably going to be on the IL for like 20 to 30 games because he does that every season. But yeah, when he plays, I still would bet on like a. a solid bounce back. Not all the way back to the player that he was. I would agree with that. All right, if you want to hear about their rankings, Scott and Chris's second base rankings, we will do that on the FBT Express episode. And of course, as always, you could find their rankings. There are rankings on the website. There are articles for both Scott and Chris's second base. Scott has an individual article for second base rankings. Chris has an article with all of his rankings for next season. So if you want to know about that, you can seek it out. You can find it on the website. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again later this week.
Speaker 11Bye-bye! Paramount Podcasts
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