2026 Relief Pitcher Preview

[Music] Welcome to Rates & Barrels. It is Monday, February 19th. Derek Van Riper here with Enos Seris on this episode. We continue our position preview series. We make a move into the bullpen. This is our 2026 Reliever preview focusing very heavily on closures because saves are critically important in most fantasy leagues. We will talk a bit about setup guys and some saves plus hold leagues a little bit later on in the show as well. We are actually pleased to announce too. We have our first listener league setup for 2026. We're launching a 2026 fantasy baseball league hosted on NFBC. It's free to enter. No purchase required and it will run for the full MLB regular season. It is a skill based contest using standard NFBC scoring. The top three overall finishers at the end of the season will win some merch vouchers to the official Rates & Barrels merch store. You must be 18 or older or otherwise eligible under NFBC rules. Void where prohibited full rules are linked in the show notes. It's really cool. You know because we're going to use the NFBC 50 style format. How's our 12 team leagues? 50 round slow drafts and those are going to start Monday, February 16th. One o'clock Eastern. Big prizes in terms of vouchers for top three in the overall and then we'll have some smaller prizes for individual league winners that are vouchers for either a free hat or a free t-shirt as well. So they were all on the same page for people who've never done this format before a quick little strategy update so that you know what you're doing. These have no free agency. So you're drafting all of your players for the year. I would recommend having at least three bodies and maybe I do three bodies for eligibility at every in field position. So consider like you have three second basement and then maybe you have another guy who is multi and can be the fourth second basement. You want to have that because at some point all your guys are going to be hurt. So how you divvy that up between prospects and you know utility type players that are going to play but not be exciting, that's your strategy aspect. I would also say and this is relevant to the rest of our episode that closers in this sort of deal, you're just going to have to make a decision. I mean they're going to go higher than you expect if you play other types of formats because a just a closer that's a closer that you know is a closer. There's not that many of them, you know. And since we can't play the free agency waiver wire game and find closers later, those closers are going to go out of premium. So you're going to have that choice where you say, I'm not taking part in this. I'm going to find somebody in the mid tiers that I think is actually going to last all year and just get enough clothes saves. But I will say this if you fully punt saves and you don't do any saves, it's going to be hard to win the overall because what we found when we did during COVID, we did this cool thing where you could draft the best team from players in history and they have these rules like you only have one guy from one year. And you remember what was I, what do we call project goat? This pure, the pure bouquet is awesome idea. And what we learned from that was very important to overalls, which is that a full punt where you get zero in a category. It doesn't make you ineligible to win the overall, but it's pretty hard. But you can do soft puns because what ended up winning was a strategy that I think there was this one, like reliever that had 10 wins and 20 saves. I think it was maybe Mike Marshall or somebody with somebody that had like crazy amounts of innings and he had like 20 saves and 10 wins. And so somebody used them as one of their starting ones. And those 20 saves brought them off of zero. And if you get off of zero in an overall, you can win, right? Because there's off like zero will be, they'll be like 30 teams that have zero. And then if you can just have one, all of a sudden you have your out of those 30 teams and you're like up there. So, you know, so I would say I wouldn't punt anything fully. And then otherwise you're just trying to fill your roster and you know, you don't have any way of the wire pickups. So, some toggles are, do you have three or four catchers? I can see not going with a fourth catcher. I've done it a couple times because the fourth catcher in this league is going to be crappy. But at least it's a 12 team league. So, you know, you're not, we're not going to be really in the dregs. So, I think this will be a fun way to check out Drafton Holden. You've never done it. Plus, it's just a great way for all of us to play together and have an overall, you know, it's difficult to give people the opportunity to play with other fans of Rates and Brails and with us. And so, I think this is one of the ideal ways to do it. As we all play together, there isn't overall, but we have these manageable 12 team leagues. Yeah, without the in-season maintenance other than setting a lineup. You know, that's the key there. So, obviously no trades and no pickups, but a lot of fun. Those drafts get underway next Monday. The link to sign up will be in the show description. We'll also put it in our discord as well. So, be sure to jump in there if that's something that you're interested in. You may have also noticed, Rates and Brails merch store appeared in that announcement too. That is still being built. So, when that's officially open, we'll pass on information for that too. But it will be available by the end of the season since prizes are coming from that store. All right, you know, on to the relievers. The way we've been handling this series, we look at the NFDC's ADP data. Take a slice of the last 10 days or so and look at where players are going. Talk about whether or not it is a generally good idea to draft the players at or around those prices. Relievers as you alluded to, especially in early early drafts, get very inflated. But I think we're going to see pretty high prices as we move into later February and even eventually into March as well because the bottom half of the closer pool is still pretty rocky. And I think people are getting more accustomed to overpaying for their closer to lock in some saves and then just catching some value back as a result of that. If enough people in the room push closers up, then everyone catches value coming back down anyway. It's just sort of the necessary way to build, to compete for overalls. But you do have to sort of take this conversation with the necessary salt if you're playing in not NFDC formats where closers will not get pushed up into, you know, round two, round three. It's not going to happen usually with top end closers in a lot of other places. So the overall analysis still applies to your one guys going inside the top 50 overhaul for NFBC leagues. Mason Miller, Edwin Diaz, Joe Underon, Andreas Munoz, and Kate Smith. You have five capital C closers in terms of elite skills, pretty firm holds on their respective roles. No real questions about job security in this group, understandably sell. This is why they go as early as they do. We start with Mason Miller of 44.4% K rate last year. I mean, that's just ridiculous. The blemish in 2025 was that he was surprisingly traded out of a closer role with the A's as part of that blockbuster deal to San Diego. But by all accounts, he should be the guy as the closer for the Padres because Robert Suarez, who was there when Mason Miller got there at the deadline line. Last year is gone. He went to Atlanta in free agency. Are you in agreement with the market that Mason Miller is the number one closer off the board if you're the one breaking the seal at this position? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the only risk I think of here is injury. And we've had two straight years of health from him. I think really limiting the amount of pitches has just been the way to keep him healthy. I mean, in 2023 when he was starting, he had six starts. He threw 33 innings. He had 611 pitches. Last year, he threw 61 innings. So it seems like he would have thrown twice as much. Nope. He threw 900 pitches. So, you know, this is, you know, he's super efficient in a way that he just is super dominant. You know, and these appearances have fewer pitches in them and it's just been better for his body. The other risk that people have talked about with Mason Miller is that he'll become a starting pitcher. But he's said publicly and I support him on this is that he's found a way to make money in the league. He's going to be successful. Like, you know, he's already making $4 million in arbitration this year. He needs to have some sort of contract extension in hand before he would consider switching over to starting pitching. So I think he's a closer for the foreseeable future and a dominant one. And I see paying off for him. I get it. 44% from K rate is just nuts. Yeah. I think it's in 1A versus 1B sort of question though. Edwin Diaz, if you want to take Diaz instead because you're more afraid of Mason Miller's injury history, I would not hold that against you at all. Diaz of course landed a fresh deal with the Dodgers. We'll be right to winter meetings in December. Not much has changed for him from a skills perspective. Still holding high 30s K rates, 38% to be exact in 2025. The walk rate still looks good. Velocity still holding up pretty well, although he's spent two years now averaging 97 and change on the fastball instead of the 98s and 99s we saw for a three year stretch from 2020 to 2020. 22, but all that is to say Edwin Diaz still shows all the traits of elite closer and now he's on a team that's projected to be the league leader in regular season wins. I mean, you could say, you know, the sky is falling. Last year was the worst velocity of his career, but then you also have to admit that he had a 38% K rate, 8% walk rate, 97.4, you know, velocity fastball and looked pretty dominant and was rewarded with a healthy contract. So, you know, there's teams that are that we're all trying to give him money. So I'm in on Diaz at the top here. There's nothing I can say. I would say that this is a little bit interesting given that he had 38% last two years. A stuff plus induced projection from UPSI gives him a 34% strikeout rate projection versus a 39% for Miller. So there is a difference between the two. You are seeding something in terms of quality in terms of ERA to Mace Miller 2.06 projection 2.6 from Edwin Diaz. So you're seeding something if you are you're giving your taking Edwin Diaz over Mason Miller. I think it should be the way around probably. I mean, it's not like Edwin Diaz doesn't have injury risk himself. You know, I mean, he's been a little bit healthier and that the only big injuries was really the knee in the WBC, but there's still some risk here for Edwin Diaz because he throws hard. Yeah, the fluky knee injury from the WBC, really the biggest blemish in terms of injuries for Edwin Diaz. We're not worried about every other year sort of thing. Kind of like we talked about Arinola. Are we? I mean, you look at the ups and downs of Edwin Diaz's career, that ACL cost him all of 2023. So the pattern got a little bit thrown off. But in terms of actual years, he's out there. The ERA seems to jump into the mid threes for some reason. Every other year and it's below two in the opposite year. I mean, like, this is not a thing, right? There's no reason to believe this is a thing. Yeah, I don't. You can't you can't use like postseason overwork as an excuse. You can't really look at he's not. He's not a guy that they pushed into 70 innings pitch or anything. They're pretty careful with him. I guess sometimes the meds have gone to back to back to back to the very end of the season. But yeah, I don't I don't. I think he just has a little bit of a wild hair up his nose when it comes to command, even last year at a night, three location plus. And I think that's just some years that that command by some a little bit harder than other years. Also, you have to remember that, you know, these relievers are just a collection of small samples. So when he has like a 352 ERA one year and a 131 the next year, the difference might be two outings. Like he has two four run outings, you know, in one year and he doesn't in the next year. And that could be the difference. Yeah, it doesn't take much to spike those numbers from the bottom three in this group. You'll under on Munoz, Kate Smith. I mean, it seems like you might be following 80 P so far in terms of how you stack them up. But is the gap between these three even smaller than the gap between Miller and Diaz? Yes. I think there's virtually no difference here. If you want to, you know, go just by projections, then under is Munoz is your guide. If you want to go by stuff plus John Duron is your guy, you know, and Kate Smith is kind of in the middle of both of those things. So the reason I have them, Duron Muno Smith, or at least the reason I have Munoz behind Duron, even though he has slightly better projections, is that I think that the Mariners pen has more obvious guys that could steal a couple saves here or there from it. You have Jose Ferrer, who I know it wasn't that great last year, but has the stuff to steal some lefty saves. And we're just, I'm not talking about like taking the job from Munoz. I'm just saying like, you know, a game where maybe another closer might go back to back. You know, they Mariners might be able to say, well, you know, a bunch of lefties today, let's not go Munoz back to back and let's let's go Jose Ferrer or let's do Matt Brash today. So I do think that they're slightly more options and the Mariners have played some games with their closer role in the past. You know, the Phillies and the Phillies had done some weird things, but when they got to Rand, you know, Duron was their closer to the capital C. And then the Guardians as forward thinking as there are in so many other parts of the game have just generally seemed to have a night to closer. So I think all these guys are 30% strikeout rate guys with sub three ERAs in the primes of their careers. And for the most part, the capital C closes for their teams. Yeah, I mean, the way they used Munoz last year in the regular season, especially he had one of 64 appearances that went for longer than one inning. It was way back in the middle of May and the inner group runners on base just twice. I mean, they really use him in a pretty narrow sort of way. So I think you're right. It's more of like they won three games in a row and then I want them to go back to back to back for a stretch. They throw somebody else out there. But I don't have any concerns at all about Munoz being a top five closer. And then with Smith, we saw him really thrive once he took over for a manual class. I mean, he could just as easily push his way up a little higher in this group because he's got that K rate sitting around 35% now for his career over parts of two seasons in Cleveland really ticks all the boxes you're looking for in an elite closer. Let's get to 80 p tier two guys ago from about pick 50 to pick 75. It is a four closer group, including a roll this Chapman, David Bednar, Josh Hader and Devon Williams. You know, a roll this Chapman is just not like other pitchers we've seen in our lifetimes. I mean, got down to a 6.6% walk rate last year, which was the best of his career. He turns 38 at the end of February. Physically, it doesn't look like he's showing any signs of slowing down just in terms of stuff. He's just a mountain out there. Long track record of double digit walk rates makes you think that that control gain might not be sustainable. And when that control wobbles, he can post elevated whips. We've seen one, two, five and higher in each of the previous three seasons before that like massive leap back in the right direction last year with the red socks. So I don't know what it is. If it's just like the age or the walk rate or the combination of the two or what it is about my, my brain, but I can't fully just buy into it. Other year like the one we just saw from Chapman as impressive as it was. Yeah, I've been trying to avoid him, but you know, there are drafts that I was racing a part of one of them where he actually goes last of this force on or just ahead of Williams. I think I comfortably have him enough ahead of Devon Williams, given maybe just a recency bias, but also if you look at the projections of Chapman's are a little bit better than Williams. And you can point to some actual change in Chapman's arsenal if you want to because he did really through the most sinkers he'd ever thrown last year. And he's become this fastball sinker guy. He has four pitches now with the splitter and the slider. So there's been some evolution to his game. He's not exactly what he once was, although he still throws really hard and gets really excellent stuff numbers. So I'm willing to take him, but you know, I, he, him and Hayder, it's a knife's edge because for me, Josh Hayder is younger. He's got this injury question. If he didn't have the injury question, I would take Josh Hayder of Chapman really easily. So, you know, and then there's times you'll be in draft rooms where Chapman goes last. And Chapman goes as sort of a, you know, uh-oh, after him. So there's a, I think there's a clear top 10. May, may even be a clear top nine. And Chapman's in it. So if you want to quibble with the rankings, I think this is where the quibble start. Yeah, I think the question with Hayder is going to come down to what he looks like this spring. It was a capsule spring that he had at the end of last season. And they're saying, he has said that he's been on a normal schedule since the end of November. So the winter news was encouraging, but I think you have to see what does he look like in spring? Are they going to hold him back a little? You can do that with relievers and not really jeopardize opening day. He's the kind of guy that if you were completely healthy, he'd probably be on the world baseball classic roster for Team USA. He's not on that roster, which is probably a reflection of him coming off this injury. So there is still some uncertainty, even though the early indications are that he's going to be generally okay. So I think if there's a reason to avoid Hayder at the current price, it's just that uncertainty. We have to see how he feels once he really ramps it up in some game situations again. I think it's interesting that Chapman and Hayder sort of bookend Bednar of all people right now, though in this tier, because Bednar Stock has completely changed over the course of a year. The suck quickly things can change for relievers. He looks like he's comfortably the Yankees closer after falling all the way to a 22.1% K rate, bringing his final full season with the pirates in 2024. I think his past work combined with what he was doing post trade and the current situation all aligned where he can fit into this tier. But something about clicking on bed Nars name as the fifth or sixth closer off the board still doesn't sit right with me because he hasn't had that level of dominance that you expect when you're drafting a closer this early. Yeah. The projections are lighter than the other people on this in this group. The stuff plus is lighter than everybody that we've talked about so far. You know, that's led me to push him down. This is where I start to differ from the ADP process. If we put my top 10 closures up right here. This is a pod exclusive to do to do pod exclusive. I don't think I'm going to publish these on the site. But I'll put them in the discord. I already put them out there as a preview. You see David Bednar here has a 309. Oopsy projection. That's the first where I have a ninth. That's the first ERA projection over three. He also has the second sub 30% strikeout rate of projection. That's by a hair. But yes, it still is also the first sub 110 stuff plus with the new stuff plus David Bednar has an outstanding fastball. We know that about him. But the curve ball is only slightly above average the one of seven stuff plus and the splitter is one of one stuff plus. And I think when we saw the really bad year from bed. And our which I you know, that's got to be in your head. You got to remember that the really bad year from bed. And our was in to 2024 as he explained it to me. He lost his curve ball. So you know, if even if they fit the splitter and the curve ball are not great. They do take pressure off his fastball and they you know when he's great. It's he does use all three so that he that they can't just queue in on the fastball. I don't think it's such a great fastball that he can just throw the fastball over and over again not those other pitches. So he kind of needs those three pitches. And he's lost one of them before. So I just think that's relevant here. Also these projections probably take into account. The park and I just think it's a very unforgiving park. So if he's if he's going to you know struggle a little bit with the curve ball at some point and then he fastball, you know, they're all just. Oh, this is he's he's all fastball right now. And then they're in that park. You know, even if it's right on righty, you can see. You know, taking that that that that that fastball the other way, you know into that short porch. So. I think that there was enough in that bad 2020 for 24 to say, okay, this happened. You know, why did it happen and can it happen again. And depending on how you answer those questions is going to change your rank of dead bed. I think the other small small difference to for me with bed. And I think that's what I think is really important. So I think that's the point. And I think that's the point. 32.5 32.9 28.9% K rates like very good generally good, but not not top tier level good either. So I think that's the only one of it. Right. Not Devon Williams. And I think then you have this interesting choice where you could say, hey, well DVR you're not comfortable with David Bednar's 2024. But why are you comfortable with Devon Williams 2025's? Well, I think Devon Williams 2025 scares me a lot less. 479 ERA, but it's only a one 13 whip. He still had 90 Ks and 62 winnings. He didn't have their line. 20% strikeout rate like dead bed. And I didn't as bad here. He had a 35% strikeout rate. Right. That bottom seemed to be a lot lower from bed. And our so when I look at this entire group of kind of like I'm probably taking Williams first off the board because he's over a younger than Chapman. Yeah, I think the meds given him three for 51 is a pretty big vote of confidence. And I know they were kind of flailing after losing Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers, but I don't know. The airbender's still there. The Velo still holding in the 94 range for Williams. And it's a little less important for him because of how often he can throw that change up. So again, it's also a great park change. He's going in the right direction to park change. Yeah, everybody here has something that gives you something to think twice about. And I guess that something to think twice about worries me the least with Devon Williams at least at this point in time. Yeah, I think that between Chapman, Haydor and Williams, it's a knife said and you know, I don't know how you make that decision. You make that on your own own terms. I think I've even made the decision differently in different drafts. It's just like, okay, this is going to be a Chapman draft or it's going to be a Haydor draft. I end up getting these guys a lot of times because I don't want to take a second round closer in draft and hold so far. And so I hope I'm choosing correctly, but for me, they're all comfortably ahead of bed. So a lot of times we talk about closures being in a circle of trust that there's nine we've talked about so far that go within the top 75 picks or so. Five is the tight circle of trust. Yeah, there's the inner circle in the outer circle. I think there is a clear difference between that first group and the second group this year. And sometimes it's a little more blurry where you can find a couple guys that go in the second tier that genuinely belong in the first one. This year seems to be kind of different in that regard. But I do see I see a pretty clear drop before you get to the 80 p tier three. This group goes between pick 90 and pick 130 and we kind of stretch out the group because closures tend to go off the board and runs. People have that sort of panic. Uh oh. The closures are going. I got to get one now. So what could be 130 80 P can be a pick 105 or pick 110 pick depending on who's sitting at the table on any given day. This group includes Carlos Estevez Ryan Hellsley rice, silly glacius Emilio Pagan Jeff Hoffman and Pete Fairman. I feel like there's almost a reaction that happens. If you say the name of prominent relievers that most of us have where we either feel good. Hey, games over or we have a game really over kind of vibe about them. And it's weird to see I think maybe three guys in this group that have that sort of is this really is the game really over sort of question. I have I have like maybe two guys I want out of this. This is this is like a tier that I don't want to shop in at all. This is sort of the tier that I feel like forces your decision making when you do your prep to say I don't want to live here. So I either have to make a plan to shop ahead of this or put out of your really really good about what I'm going to do after this group. Right. Like this is this is why I think people are making those those hard decisions the way they are. Yeah, and you mentioned something about like when the room pushes closures up some guys will fall that you know would never maybe second or third round bats anyway. The name I thought it was Austin Riley. He's kind of going in the fourth and fifth. And I just feel like if we weren't pushing up all those closures like when we get to later drafts he'll just be in the fourth and the third, you know, and like, you know, it'll make more sense. So you can you can play some mental games. You're like, I want to take advantage of you are Austin Riley in the fifth and it will kind of be like Austin Riley is my second or whatever you know like. You know, that's the kind of that's the kind of mental games you can play with if you do you know load up on bats and you find yourself in this tier. I'm taking Ryan healthy might have noticed that because using my top 10. And so I have him comfortably comfortably ahead of Carlos Estevez. In fact, I have I don't even have Carlos Devez in my next 10. I have Carlos Estevez in my bottom five. And so I don't think there's a bigger difference between where I have a guy ranked and ADP than Carlos Estevez. And I just. You know what I see a projection of a four six four from oopsie with a 20% strikeout rate and you can't even say, oh, that's crazy. No, all of the objections are 20 and 21% and it's not like he can he's like this crazy cutter guy or that like, you know, has had low strikeout rates and low babbs his whole life like that's not who he's been. And he used to be comfortably above strike out right guy and now he's below. So now the fences are coming in. I don't even I don't even see the argument for Carlos Estevez at this 80 feet like I. I don't think I've seen a more clearer bad pick by the market. I don't I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when I see Ryan healthy goes behind him. I know that Ryan healthy had a bad year, but there was better underlying stuff. We're talking about a guy in Ryan, healthy that you know there was a there was pitch tipping going on. There was a bad command year. You have underlying stuff that was better than Carlos Estevez of 25% strike out rate 10% walk rate. He's throwing 99 for God's sake. You know, like I think that hell's he's a much better bet to have a good season this year than Carlos Estevez. So that's that's an easy one for me right there. Same I'm not sure who out there is is piling up all the Carlos Estevez shares inside the top 100 or near that pick 100 range, but it's not me. Here to in Kansas City on a two year deal, I mean 20% K rate is just so far from what you need and want from a high leverage reliever. He's going to have to bounce back to previous levels that any chance of holding the job from start to finish all year glad you mentioned the park change to that could also start to bite him given the extreme fly ball tendencies that he has. I'm healthy the guy like in this group to you shouldn't surprise anybody who's been a long term listener of the show we know. Usuations year to year can be pretty extreme and I think he's got the higher ceiling anybody You're gonna find in this entire group where I think it gets challenging you know is if we all like Helsley You me a lot of people in the industry top-end players like collectively We're all kind of targeting Helsley and he's kind of creeping up towards the top of this group or maybe gets a bottom spot in the tier Head based on ADP once we get to the later part of this month Is there anyone else you actually would draft at or near cost as part of a run? Let's say you didn't have anybody yet and this group plus Helsley the two groups ahead of us plus Helsley are gone Is there anyone you like out of a glaciers Pagan or Hoffman or Fairbanks that you think actually are worth taking a chance on? I don't love it. I guess if I was You're gonna put baby in the corner. I'd say a P Fairbanks maybe Because you know I think that You know 23 25 easy saves. I think they'll be Just some non competitive games where he's he's got an easy road to it He's at home against you know teams that that won't put up too much from flight I think he has enough stuff left in them and it's just really for me a question of injury almost more than anything I don't think the stuff I know the stuff is falling off repeat Fairbanks And I know he doesn't really quite have the same projections anymore But the three four ERA projection 25% strike arrays clearly the best in that pen. I don't think he's gonna get a lot of you know Push from the pen around him if he's healthy and I think there'll be some easy saves from so I guess if anybody I would just keep waiting and I think that also You know it's easy if you're saying oh we'll take draft these guys or Fairbanks and if you don't get Fairbanks You might get you know one of the next tier That's easier for me to play that game. I'm like, okay, you know, I'm just gonna wait now That's what I would do because when I look at rice ale glacius like obviously I've been wrong about him the last couple of years because I've been out and I've missed you know what is it 63 saves in two years with the You know a two something ERA in a 27% strike our right. He's been pretty vintage and So I've been wrong but this year he has a 365 ERA projection and I think more importantly the stuff is finally falling below average overall and They signed another guy who has big stuff right behind him. So I think this is the year that he has the most Pressure from somebody else on his team rice ale glacius has Robert Suarez Bobby fastball breathing down his neck Bobby fastball is gonna throw four five miles an hour harder than him and If a glacius falters, I think there's just a really a built-in release valve and I don't I they may be saying that rice ale glacius is a closer start the year But I would put him on one of the hottest seats out there along with Estevez and I think Pagandu Yeah, I think instead of Fairbanks I'd actually go Hoffman if you made me choose one from the bottom of this group is the hope that like Something was wrong last year physically and he maybe he fixed it maybe yeah Because the command was pretty brutal. I think it was a 92 location plus I think we saw it in terms of homers and it was just the Untimely one that he served up to Miguel Rojas in the world series. It was just All season homers could bite him and he's like he's like 29% strikeout right on the season. Yeah, Hoffman did so Yeah, like the core skills and the stuff look pretty close to good versions of Hoffman that we've seen so That's that's to me like enough to say maybe we get something a little bit better from him in sort of the the Devon Williams He kind of way but even Williams didn't have his home run right go through the roof the way Hoffman did a season ago and You know you could make a sort of rice ale glacius type argument for Emilio Pagand in that like we've we've called his decline You know too many times and yeah, he's been pretty steady But I would point out that like You know he's 34 years old and last year he arrested a clear decline in his fastball velocity and stuff and I Still know if I trust that you know like I think he'll go back to being more of a 94/5 you guy next year in terms of fastball velocity And I think with that you'll just have a slightly more home run rate slightly lower strikeout rate and I think that in that park might put him on edge quicker than you think Not enough has changed for me in that reds bullpen though to feel like he's gonna lose the job quickly It would take a series of meltdowns for him to cough it up I feel like he's a little more of a second half job loser. Yeah, I mean that I think that's a good call I mean I do like Graham Ashcraft and I think if you can Ashcraft can just Squeeze a few more k's out of that. I know he has a great cutter and that's part of why he's why he's good And that's not always gonna lead to k's but think if he could squeeze a couple more k's out that you know There's still as a closer arm in Graham Ashcraft, but the other thing that Pagan can do that is You know not usual Is he could hold his job and not be helpful to your ratios Like what if he holds his job and gets you 25 saves, but it comes with like a 4-2 year ERA Like do you want that like how much is that actually worth? If it's like 20 saves it's um, it's okay not great If he still finds a way to 30 then you might be fine depending on what you do with the rest of your staff, right? I mean like that's It's a huge difference actually Because saves end up so clustered together in so many leagues But I have no Pagan so far and I'd be surprised if I drafted 10 teams if I have more than one this year I'd be pretty surprised. This is a group that I'm largely trying to avoid I can't we can actually maybe add to answer this question using another guy in this tier So last year Jeff Hoffman had 33 saves and a 437 ERA so he was not helping you with ERA so if we go to the auction calculator and It actually doesn't matter too much what settings I use because I'm just gonna look at him against other relievers And we look at relievers and we look at Hoffman And oh this is not good for the Pagan argument I think Um, I'm not seeing him so I have to go to infinity here Hoffman. Oh there is 18th best reliever Yeah, okay, that's to you. It's good enough. I'm picking up you in that category, right? So if you back to starting pitches that were good that keep the ratios Good enough then you're you're gonna be all right. It's just Yeah, you have to have so other stuff go right to make that pick work if it's gonna go that way I think it easily could push your your staff ERA in the wrong direction with starters already, you know putting up higher ERA's you know you want Like you like you have 4 to ERA from reliever is like oops well now You know, I'm trying to get that from my like six best starting pitcher. Yeah So about yeah to say the least Let's move down to 80 p tier number fours from about pick 130 to 190 Has two brewers on it which we'll get to in just a minute Trevor McGill Daniel Polensia Kenley Jansen Abner-Yeree Bay Dennis Santana and Ryan Walker all sort of lumped together I've been puzzled by this throughout the winter, you know Trevor McGill had a forearm strain at the end of the year which he did return from and pitch a little bit in the playoffs I'm making the assumption that he's the closer again when healthy and that the only reason he wasn't closing in the playoffs Because he came back right off that injury And I think it's a lot like the situation with the guy behind him Daniel Polensia who had a September shoulder strain That kept him out of the closes rule after September and they decided to use him in some critical mid game spots throughout their playoff run So am I missing something with Trevor McGill and Daniel Polensia in terms of how we expect them to be used Well a couple things that I would just point out as one is that Daniel Polensia I don't think has anybody pushing him like Trevor McGill does without an early rebate So just in your example You know there's not Two Cubs Closers in this tier You know like so Already that should tell you not to maybe invest this heavily in McGill and Avenue rebate Because they're going too close to each other there's going to be a clear winner and a clear loser And it's too much of a 50/50 proposition for the where you're taking this I think it's This maybe as an artifact of some of the shallower leagues Taking these shots. I would I would feel or I guess in a draft and hold you say hey, I'm gonna take Avenue rebate And either you'll get five or ten saves and just be a guy I can put in for ratios because he's a really good pitcher anyway Or I win and he gets 30 saves I guess that's that's the idea in draft and hold season But I do think that you know in a waiver wire situation I would rather not take a closer here I would not take McGill or Avenue rebate here because they're too close to each other It's too expensive to do You know the two guys next to each other so I know that fangrass for example the reason my rankings have Avenue rebate in this tier and not Trevor McGill even though some By ADP McGill goes first but in a lot of leagues to rebate goes first I have your rebate in the rankings and McGill not because I have McGill in my setup rankings and because the my process was I took all of the guys labeled closer or co-closer on fan grabs and did my rankings with those guys So in some leagues you're gonna get Avenue rebate going over McGill because the guy is using the fangrass dev charts And that's what's being fed into it is that your rebate is the closer. I just think it's too close to each other to take either of them really. I think that's almost as much as I'd like having your rebate and Trevor McGill and have had your rebate high, it's a soft ranking for me because if I was really in a draft right now, it'd be hard for me to take either of them 'cause I just don't know which one's the guy. - It's a good problem to have 'cause McGill 31.3% K-R-A, 8.9% walk rate last year, 30 saves had 21 saves in 2024. So I just think that longer track record if they're gonna stick to one guy points him to being the guy with the job as long as he's actually healthy. Arie Bay showed better control than we'd seen at any point during his time in the big leagues. And 9.1% walk rate by far, the best we've seen over parts of three seasons and he did it with a lot of strikeouts to also had a 30% K-R-A. So you have two excellent high leverage guys, order matters of course. I'm a little more into McGill just assuming that past structure of bull plan is the thing that wins out here. But maybe, I don't know, maybe the brewers have another trade up their sleeve between now and the start of spring training is. - Yeah, hold on to your hats because, that does seem to be an opening at third base and how they're gonna fill it. But if you get my next top 10 closers up and you put this table up right now on YouTube, you can see that I had Daniel Polensia as the best of this group. And I have him 11, so I have him ahead of some of the guys we just talked about. So that's when I was alluded to the fact that I might wait for fairbanks because I have better options in the next tier of Polensia's the guys think, you know. And I just think that, you know, I laud the Cubs for investing in their bullpen, but the investments that they made in their bullpen, none of them are closer material for me. Nick Mayton does not close for my team. He's too much of a, you know, 40, 50, 60% slider guy. Like he's two Pierce Johnson Esk for me to trust him. I want a guy with a big fast wall as my closer. And I think that the Polensia situation in the playoffs was a little bit more just about things changed in the playoffs. And you, you know, you're just like, this is the time that we need to get this. I mean, they were in such a short series that they're like, there's no tomorrow, you know. There's no, there's no weight, you know. There's this, we need to get this guy out right now. We need to get many Machado out right now, you know. Like as a basis load, and if he does anything, we're done. So I think Polensia is a fine closer, and I'll take him if I'm waiting. I'm like, try to double up on Fairbanks and Polensia. If I waited that long, you know, because I've hopefully got a bunch of bats for my troubles. And I like him better than the veterans that are in this tier that we'll get to talk about in a second. Well, yeah, Kenley Jansen goes in this tier, 24 saves away from 500. He's been named the favorite to close by manager AJ Hinch. I mean, I think when you look at the last three seasons, you see 29, 27, 29, we've talked for a few seasons now about the late season wobbles we see from Kenley Jansen where we always are asking is he still the clubs are going into the playoffs? And last year was a non-issue because he was with the angels. So the playoffs were not a factor. But I think if you're looking for 20 to 25, say, is probably 24. 24 seems like a pretty good number to expect if he's healthy. It looks like the Tigers are going to give him every opportunity for that. And then we're coming off the season, even though he was 37 years old, where the ratios were phenomenal. He got the whip below one for the first time since 2018 during his lone season with the angels. Yeah. And he's been such a steady guy. He's also expanded his arsenal some. He's not just a cutter guy. But the strikeout rate has been in a full on decline. And even Upsie, which uses stuff plus-- and you know, he still had a 114 stuff plus last year by Upsie, by the revised number-- Upsie still gives Kenley Jansen a 24% strikeout rate. So he's not helping you in strikeouts. The 396 projected the IRA is not helping you there. So I mean, it's oatmeal. I think if Kenley Jansen is a second closer, I could actually get behind, because now you're not comparing him to guys who have two ERAs and three zeros. You're comparing him to Amelia Pagan, who has a 375 ERA. Would I-- I think I'd rather have Kenley Jansen, who has a 396 projected the IRA with the extra-- with the extra picks, because Jansen's going after Pagan. So could I do something where I do fair banks and Kenley Jansen and just pay a lot less than everybody else? Yeah, I get it. Even in a drafts'enhold, you could do fair grants, Kenley Jansen and Ben Joyce. And hope that Ben Joyce gives you 10 saves when Kenley Jansen loses his job. And that from the group of them, you get 50 saves. That'll put you in the middle of Pagan saves. I think that the sort of target is really only in drafts'en holds, because there's no waiver wire. The target for saves is around 65 saves. It gets you into the top five, top four. So that kind of approaches the draft and holds makes a lot of sense. I think you're comping Jansen correctly to some of the guys that go into your above, just in terms of your overall expectations, ideally the second of your closers if you're going to do that. But if you got just pushed out on some runs, maybe you're drafting at an end where nothing was going your way. And by the time you came up to pick, it just didn't make sense to take whoever was on the board. Jansen, as your first would be OK, if you took a couple of good shots from the group we get to here in just a couple of minutes. And a waiver league, Jansen makes even more sense, right? Wawa league, you're like, OK, I take Jansen. I take two set up guys. I drop the set up guys if it doesn't work out. And I work the wire and I get my second close of that way. Yeah, and pick a will vest when Jansen loses the job if the vest is the one that replaces them, or you just pick a different team that's finding their guy right now and take that closer and run with them. But I think the two at the bottom, Dennis Santana and Ryan Walker are really hard for me to get behind. I think Dennis Santana has spent parts of eight seasons in the big leagues. He's never posted a strikeout rate above 25%. They brought in Gregory Soto. They've got Mason Montgomery as part of that trade with the raise. So you have two guys now that I think have more intriguing skills that are new to the fray plus holdovers that maybe don't hold the spots as starters that could enter the mix at some point. It's just-- it seems like a very, very loose hold on the job for a guy that filled in capable as the closer a year ago. Yeah. I see a little difference between the two. And I have Ryan Walker comfortably ahead of Dennis Santana. You can see that in my next top 10 closers. My next 10-- I have Ryan Walker 19th, and I don't have Dennis Santana in my top 21. So I think that reflects the fact that I think that Dennis Santana has a lot more-- like you mentioned, there's a lot more competition for his role. And if you look at this next slide that I've got, the top 10 set up guys-- you'll see Trevor McGill at the top, I explained why. It's that Fang Raff's has them as a set up guy. So yeah, if he's a set up guy, I love him. He's number one. And then Grant Taylor has just a bonkers projection. The new stuff plus the love zone, 280 ERA, 30% strikeout rate. I think it'd be pretty easy for him to just take that role and run with it. Unless they keep the door open with the multi-inning, I know that's what they're doing. So I could say that Gregory Soto is actually the top set up guy that I like in terms of likely to get saves this year. 336 ERA projection is better than Santana's. 25% strikeout rate. The stuff is better than Santana's. I think I could say Soto's taking it. And then I love Montgomery, too. He's one of my favorite 47th round picks, Indriptable. So I've doing a lot of Montgomery there. But you'll see Will Vest is on this top 10 set up. Less Louis Varlin, just in case Hoffman isn't right this year. I made some of my gumries on here. Ben Joyce, Kevin Ginkgo, because that bullpen is terrible and Kate Stroud, because that bullpen is terrible. The Arizona Diamondbacks and then Julian Fernandez ending it up because that bullpen is terrible. So there's some guys with some interesting stuff and some interesting projections in bad bullpen that also get into my top 10. But why is there Ryan Walker safely ahead? I don't have a giant in my top 10 set up guys. If you look at the projections, the UBC projections for guys who get saves on the giants, there's Hoyle Pegaro with four ERA. Why do I not think he's a great choice of a Ryan Walker? Because Hoyle Pegaro has the same arsenal as Ryan Walker. It's just not as good. He's a big slider, a sink or slider guy. And that's a little bit awkward to have as a righty sink or slider guys are closer. If Ryan Walker loses it is because lefties, you know, hit some homers off him. You're gonna go right to the next guy. I know, help Hoyle Pegaro throws like nearly a hundred. So maybe, maybe just like, oh, we'll just take the gas, I guess. Eric Miller is a lefty and I don't really think they have a great lefty in the bullpen to take pressure off him. So in the past, historically, manners have been less likely to use lefties as closures than you would expect given the population in baseball. So I don't think it's Eric Miller. Jose Boutot has really pedestrian stuff. I think he's a, he's in Spencer Bivens. Those guys are middle, middle relievers. I don't really see unless a guy like Hayden Birdson goes the bullpen this year. And I think that they don't actually have great starting pitch or depth either. 'Cause Trevor McDonald Hayden Birdson, Carson Wismont, played Tidwell. I'd like played Tidwell, but I don't really want to. really love those pictures. They're not great pictures, you know, and that's their depth. So I think I would keep that bird song as starting venture depth. It was me. So, you know, I just think Ryan Walker, Ugly's his way to a three, seven, five year array and 30 saves and just keeps the job all year. So if I was forced to choose between us to, I'm taking Ryan Walker and I have a couple places where I have Ryan Walker. Yeah, it's too bad. Randy Rodriguez down for 2026 for Tommy Jones surgery because I think he would have been probably within the first two tiers ADP wise based on the skills he was showing us and he's lining up perfectly to stay that guy after they traded Camila Devall away at the Yankees, the trade deadline last year. But generally a group that I'm trying to avoid at the bottom at least in this third tier or fourth tier rather because I think I'd like some of the guys that go a little later. ADP tier five after pick 200 Griffin jacks, Sir Anthony Dominguez, Robert Suarez, Edwin Useeda, Robert Garcia and Riley O'Brien. First of the group is Griffin jacks. I like Griffin jacks just as much as I like some of the bottom guys that go ahead of them because the race brought him in for a reason. And I think the thing that would make him uncertain is they have not named a closer and he's got enough pitches and he's been used in multi inning relief roles in the past where they could just push him as part of the bridge to the night. Then instead of just making him the regular closer. Yeah, but you know, he's he's wanted to start and I don't think they're giving them the opportunity to start. So, you know, there's not really too much of a reason to keep him in a stretched out role. And you know, last year he had a 235 Cero. So I think that a lot of the four ERA last year for Griffin jacks was just poor luck. The the strand rate was down. The Babib was crazy. 368 Babib. I don't think he deserves that. And his fastball velocity was still steady at 97. So when I look at that and I look at the competition, yes, I do like everyone who say that and Garrett Clevenger has a really good projection as well. But Garrett Clevenger again, you know, it's a good projection. And he had a nice time on our fastball last year. But it was a pop up year velocity wise. If he goes back down to 9695, you expect a lower strikeout rate from him. And I don't know. I just in terms of projections, you have jacks with a 245 UPSI ERA projection. That's almost a full run lower than Usetta and Brian Baker and Clevenger obviously is some like puts some pressure on him. But I could see them just running with it. And it is a little bit hard when you get a guy like Jacks versus Walker was a really hard rank for me because you know, Jacks clearly has the better projection for strikeout rate and ERA. But he also is clearly in a better bullpen. So it's like, you know, where do you take? Do you take the sure thing? You don't. So anything to me is somewhat similar where, you know, he's boring as a as a projection in terms of 350 ERA, decent strikeout rate. No, no, if you think Grant Taylor is going to continue to be stretched out and multi-innings, then I don't really think Jordan Leisure is that much of a problem for Seranth and Dominguez. So Dominguez is a little bit like Walker. Jacks is, I don't know, is that more like Suarez? Like best projection and a good pen? I think that's probably fair. I think the key difference for me would just be that Glacias has a long track record of being the guy and no one really has that in Tampa Bay. Like you could look at Jacks, you could look at Clevver, you could say that he went over 100Ks last year, you could look at Brian Baker and you could tell yourself that any one of those guys are good enough to close because they are, which speaks to their ongoing ability to load up a bullpen full of high quality options. So I just think if I'm taking a chance in this general pocket after picked 150 even, I really want the possibility of a top eight closer by skills. And Jacks has that. Jacks is the kind of guy we could be treating like, which we Kate Smith right now. We could be doing that with Jacks this time next year. That's sort of what I'm looking for because I'm still giving up something else around pick 200 that I generally care about on my roster. Like I'm passing out other players I like at this point. Once you get down outside the top 300, then it's just about who has the job right now? Who's going to close for a little while? Who's going to get me five or 10 saves? I'm not as worried about kind of landing the plane perfectly as I am when I'm taking my shots at this price point. Yeah, yeah, I think that's an excellent way to think about it. It's an argument for Jacks over some of the more boring veterans like Sarenthini Dominguez for sure because he'll run with it. I think and I think you know, you might take that same argument to take Riley O'Brien over Robert Garcia just because Riley O'Brien has I think slightly more interesting stuff than then Robert Garcia. I like Robert Garcia and he's on the other end of the sort of lefty righty discussion that we should always have. But I put Robert Garcia and Riley O'Brien right next to each other in terms of projections with the caveat that like Riley O'Brien's a righty and JoJo Romero is a lefty and so you'd think okay Riley O'Brien's more likely to get it. Well, the Cardinals also have Justin Bruell who is bad last year but has some interesting stuff on the hood. If he steps forward as a lefty that allows JoJo Romero to be the lefty closer. Now, you know, JoJo Romero as the lefty closer, you know, is that a good idea for the Cardinals? What are they doing? I think what they're doing with JoJo Romero is pumping up for a trade. So I think it's a little bit weird that Riley O'Brien's going ahead of JoJo Romero because I think JoJo Romero is likely to start the season as a closer and close for them for two months and then Riley O'Brien gets the last two months. So the shape of the season matters and I think I'm just reading the tea leaves to hear a little bit about what the Cardinals are and what they're doing. Whereas the, you know, the the Rangers, you know, they've got Robert Garcia, they've got Cole Wynn, I think, who could take the job as a righty with decent stuff and a good season last year. You know, do they have a, like an obvious left hander that can that can take the pressure off of him? No. But he might just be the best believer in that bullpen. And so they might just shrug and say, well, so what? He's left hand. Yeah, I think by K-Mine as BB percentage projection, Robert Garcia is the second best picture on the staff from the Oopsy projections. The Groms, the only picture the Rangers have above him at 20.3%. So that's your takeaway stat that gives you that little extra nudge on Garcia if you're stuck down this bin with the on the cards being maybe a little more unsettled or more of a committee, even it's not like mixing and matching throughout the season where it's just going to take two or three different guys to get them there. I was surprised that you, you seem like you like Romero, maybe a little more than I expected. I thought you were a pretty firm Riley O'Brien is a good dart if you're waiting too long for saves sort of guy. I have Jojo Romero ranked like 30th and among like 38 pitchers that were ranked that were Clow closers or Clowzer committee on Fangrafts. So I don't have to Romero higher. But I did take Romero on a draft and hold recently as my second closer because I waited really long time. And I figured there's actually maybe 10, 15 saves in this arm. And hopefully and I did pair him with like Ben Joyce and Lucas Erset. Who I think are names that you should know in pens that are going to have different closes at the beginning of the year than the end of the year. Lucas Erset in Kansas City and Ben Joyce in Anaheim. But you know like Robert Stevenson I have actually right there with Robert Garcia and Riley O'Brien. He goes a little bit later in drafts. I think Robert Stevenson is a little bit like the Griffin Jacks thing where there's Robert Stevenson, Kirby Eights and Drew Palmerans. But again, Palmerans is the left. He Ben Joyce coming off injury. Kirby Eights is the veteran with the lower velocity. Stevenson to me looks the part of a closer. I think he could just take the closer role and run with it. And there's a outside chance of I don't think it's necessarily top five or top A. But could he be top 10 top 15 closer at at you know back end prices. Yes. So I actually Robert Stevenson is a guy that I might like better than some of the guys in this tier even. Yeah. Entering the final year that three year deal injuries have been a big part of the story for him just ten innings with the angels for the first two seasons so far. But you kind of get the sense that maybe they'd want to get something out of that deal before it runs out as far as Stevenson goes. I mean there's five teams I think are completely unsettled. Six if you want to count the Cardinals as part of that. Seven if you're lumping the raisin as well. But the A's the angels the gnats the debacks and the Rockies they do not have closures being drafted inside the top 300 overall right now. You already mentioned the angel situation with Stevenson is there anyone else that you kind of think from either any of those four teams that makes sense as in in a league where you have moves especially makes sense as one of maybe your bench relievers to throw the dart. on right now. There's a little bit of a whiff. I think Robert seems to ease my easy my answer. But beyond that, I think there's a little bit of a whiff of maybe just avoid these bullpits. I'm a little worried that it's just going to be bad. I mean, when you're talking about Sacramento and the athletics, you know, Hogan Harris right now, Upsies has given him the most saves 10 with a 458 ERA projection and a below average strikeout rate. So I can say, well, I like Justin Sterner better than Hogan Harris. Justin Sterner, you know, throws 94 had a 109 stuff plus as a really good slider. He had a 318 in Sacramento last year. So like, I think he can do better than Hogan Harris. And so if you're asking me, you know, my favorite other than Robert Seamerson, I think it might be Justin Sterner, even though I'm tempted to, especially in like 12 team leagues, just avoid the whole situation entirely. I think with some of these situations like the A's, you know, they have some young pitching coming up. Maybe someone gets shifted into a real world because they want big league innings from someone that doesn't make the rotation. So for me, I'm like, man, Jack Perkins, like, I think he's good enough to start. But if he doesn't have a spot because of the way the roster works on opening day, could they just say, do the closer. We want you on the big league roster. You make our team better. They're both been so bad that their next best starters could be much more viable to them in short relief than staying stretched out at AAA. Yeah. And I think that's the idea a little bit with Clayton Beater in Washington is a recent convert from starting. And, you know, he's really taken off Vila-wise, not command-wise, 86th location plus for him last year with a 17% walk rate. So you're going to have to take a little step forward in that department. And it's not something that is recent. He had a 30 present 30 future command by Fangrass back when in his prospect. So it may be a limiting factor. That's why I've taken a few shares of Julian Fernandez. That's why he's stuck into my top 10 setup guys because Julian Fernandez, though he is 30 and has a career 849 ERA in 11 innings. I don't care about all that. When it comes to relievers, I care about stuff plus and things of that nature. And he's got a really nasty change up and throws 97 miles an hour. So I think there's a little bit of a chance that he does something in. And Arizona. Am I crazy to think it's Cade Stroud? Like, you know, what I will say is this. I found that very, very few saves come from true rookies. So, remember last year we were all Craig Yeohoeing? We were like for draft and holds just in case something happened to McGill and it was because Rebay was coming off an injury and hadn't shown a good enough walk right yet. Well, I'm not making fun of that stretcher actively. I think we were looking for relievers like we do. Like that's he was in the Mason Montgomery Rebay, like a young interesting pitcher that could close. But what I did find when I looked into it was that people who've never pitched in the big leagues very rarely get saves. There's usually at least a one year break in period, which is why I'm happy to say that Cade Stroud last year had 26 innings with the Baltimore Orioles showed amazing breaking balls and a really good fastball, really good stuff plus really bad location plus. But 96 miles an hour with really great stuff can really spin it. I mean, is there anybody in that diamondbacks pen that you're excited about otherwise? Like, it's unless it's like, you know, hopefully the return of puck or Martinez at a certain point this year, Justin Martinez, I, you know, Ryan Thompson is a side armor. South Frank throws 90. He was my last closer out of 38. You know, Ginkgo is okay. But Cade Stroud's like, I think could, could wow everybody in the spring and say, okay, he's our closer. I think Dre Jamison's been interesting to me going back to his time as a prospect. I know you through like what three innings last year in the big leagues coming off injury. So you're gonna see a 68 location plus on that chart. It's innings. So let's not, let's not like make that the story in this. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, three innings coming off an injury, right? So yeah, doesn't tell us a lot. It wasn't a problem before. Yeah, it wasn't, wasn't that bad before. And I mean, he was stretched out as a starter. And I think the other thing get to keep in mind when you look back through the back's pitching numbers. I've talked about this for years, Emma Rillo and Reno, double A and triple A affiliates for them are some of the most hitter friendly places that you can pitch. So you get some bloated ratios along the way. I actually think Dre Jamison would be sort of like the internal candidate guy that's been through injuries actually has maybe some in reward and that work, you know. Yeah, like that could rise to the top of that depth chart. I mean, yeah, so otherwise you're going back to a ginkgo or someone that's done it kind of occasionally in the past, but hasn't really thrived in that opportunity. And man, we've said it a few times that Arizona pitching staff. There is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of weight on that group coming through and seating expectations if they're going to hang around and try and push for a playoff spot again this year. Yeah. And then I think Colorado, I mean, I think a Victor Vodinick pitch for somebody else that'd be fairly excited about him, you know, like, this is a decent 99-mount hour fastball with a good slider, you know, it's actually a three-pitch mix. He's got some command. He's demonstrated some decent strikeout ability in the past at least. I think just, you know, his came on speedy last year wasn't that exciting either. And the park is just so bad. I mean, who is it for you if it's not Vodinick? And is that person worth even picking up as a speculative pick? I don't think there's, I don't think there's anyone worth that speculative pick right now when I look at the not Halverson. If there is someone, it's Halverson because he also throws really hard. It has filthy stuff, but the same kind of scouting report you gave him Vodinick. It's kind of like I need to see outside of Colorado with some other team before I'm interested. Maybe Jaden Hill, seen Jaden Hill before. I think he's kind of interesting, but the Rockies have such an uphill battle for closers to break through and be good that it still looks like a bit of a mess there. So I'm not drafting anyone in that bullpen. There was one team. I don't know if I listed them off, but they're definitely in this bucket. Minnesota is also in here right now. And, you know, recently they've had great bullpen and they traded Doran, the trade deadline, traded Griffin jacks, just kind of horror tore it down right in that facet. And Taylor Rogers back in Minnesota, just in Topa still there. Cody Funderberg's there. Is there someone from that trio or someone else further down the depth chart that actually intrigues you as a possible closer for the twins? I actually had some shares of Colesans, but it's an awkward pick for for closer because it's not fastballs forward. You know, it's, you know, it's a good breaking ball. And then, you know, I actually had a final round pick of Cody Funderberg in one draft and hold 15 team. Just because it's good stuff and it's it's sinker slider and it's funky. But again, you know, in terms of Velo, Funderberg is coming in with the, what is it here? 92 mile an hour heat. And his career came out speed because 23 minus 10. So it's right on average. I just thought maybe he just gets out and in the Ryan Thompson way and, you know, gets 10, 15 saves just because he's getting out. I don't know. I don't, I think this might be the closest to a true avoid just because I don't have anybody I want to, you know, grab with two hands. Yeah. I keep waiting for someone to emerge from the depths to be good. There's Todd Leems. Todd Leeing-Tosh. Yeah. I mean, I just, I don't think they'll they'll do it yet. But if they, if they felt they have enough depth, you know, in the starting rotation, you know, to mean Wood Richardson, you know, if could they move one of their David Festa? Because they move one of their starting pictures out of depth and into the bullpen. I think they would immediately become interesting. Because remember, you know, the, the, some of the best relievers were, were one starters, you know, so that's a lot of these guys. If you just gave them two miles an hour more on their fastball, it would be a lot better. Eric Orza from the race organization ended up there. Big splitter guy doesn't have premium fastball. I mean, the, it's, to me, it looks like a pretty wide open battle. If they want to go with someone who's done it before, then Taylor Rogers is quietly a closer that's going very, very, very late right now. But I don't, don't think I'm committing to that right now. I think I want to see a little bit the spring before I dig into that minnesota bullpen with actual parts of my roster. Anything else you want to throw out there, either for like, sold league strategy or any of the reliever thoughts before we go? No, you know, one of those, one of those little small, really important things is I always have to make a list at some point of the starting picture eligible, like guys who get holds, all the suburbs. - Yeah, the sparks with holds. I always have to come up with those, but it's better to wait on those because a lot of those are spring training converts. What you're looking for there, I think, is just guys who are out of options on teams that are cycling through depth options and you can just see that coming. I mean, it's what happened to Trevor May, right? Like he became a good reliever because at some point they just needed to relieve more than they needed the extra starter. So I think that's gonna happen to some of these twins. I just don't know when it'll happen. It has something to do with where they are in the wind cycle and may have something to do with this new owner and him coming in there and being like, "Tosh Browdy looks like a closure." Okay, boss. (laughing) - I love you's going that far into the baseball upside that's gonna be a really tough year, I think, for the twins, but we'll see how that one plays out. I've one of the thought I didn't throw out there earlier. We were talking about the uncertainty around Hager. I think one thing I've been doing in early drafts is I've been willing to take Brian to Brayew at the price because if Hager doesn't bounce back as he ramps things up and gets back to game situations again, if he doesn't feel good, I mean, capsules of serious injuries, Brian to Brayew's a very capable high leverage reliever that I feel like in draft and hold especially, he's good enough to use just as a filler, set up guy, so you're not completely without value in a situation like that if you take that shot on a Brayew. The assumption of health on Hager is strong enough for the price on a Brayew's low. - I'll leave this, I'll put this document that I've been working on in the back in the discord so people can see, but my next 10 set up guys, which we didn't make a chart of because, that's not that relevant to that many people, but it was interesting because the next 10 guys, I was like, I don't care as much about saves with these guys anymore, I just want really good relievers. And so you have Brian of Brayew as the, Adrian Morahone, Hageramaya Strata, like those guys might have sub three ERAs with 30% strikeout rates. Like maybe just take one of those. That's something I was saying in draft and hold two, so I kind of at the end, kind of alternate between, here's a guy that I'm taking because he might get saves. Here's a guy I'm just taking for, that I could use him as a ratio guy, just as a stopgap guy. So I might, Julian Fernandez, a guy that I might just take for ratios, I think Orion Kirkering is a guy I've been taking in like the 46 round because, I think he'll pitch well. I don't know if he'll get me saves, but I think he'll pitch well. Ax Vesia is a guy you can take late for those. Jose Alvarado, I don't think he'll get saves because of what happened, I mean because of the PD's suspension, and I don't think he'll, I think that's like some team aspects to that, but Garret Whitlock has a really nice projection. Jose Ferrer has a really nice projection. Jose Ferrer has a 272 ERA projection. So there are guys, Fernando Cruz has a really nice projection. 31% strikeout rate, 3-3 ERA. So those guys are all relevant, even if they don't get saves, they, you know, there'll be weeks where you're like, oops, my saves guys are terrible or hurt, and I don't have enough starting pitchers. It's really nice to be able to take like Brian and Ray, and just, ah, nice, I'll just stick that in and get a few K's and keep the ERA down. Yeah, I think that larger group is the group you're generally hoping to just get in saves plus holds leagues. Guys on good teams and deep bullpens, they don't have, save versus hold doesn't matter. I mean, sometimes the categories weighted where the save is twice as valuable as the hold. So you still want to care about saves more if you're in a league that plays like that. Matt Brash kind of strikes me as interesting in leagues like that. I mean, that whole raise bullpen, that whole raise bullpen, like you could just stack the raise and a save plus holds league. And it probably wouldn't cost you that much. And you'd end up probably fine 'cause the ratios and strikeout rates are gonna be good. Yeah, the one thing I will say and say is this hold leagues, I do try to get one closer. And the reason my reasoning is this, managers have to, and this is a little bit of a non-analytical answer, but managers have to answer to the media about who their closer is at the end of the day. Like they always, a big thing that helps up in scrums, it's a big thing that they always have to answer. It goes into the media, it goes into written pieces. Everyone wants to know who's your closer, who's your closer, who's your closer. So I fact think there's much more pressure on naming a closer and sustaining a closer. The dreaded vote of confidence, keeping them in. You know what people don't ask as much about? Who's your settler guy? Who's your eighth in a guy? Who's what's going on in the eighth inning? What's going on in the seventh inning? Sometimes they do, but it's not as reported as heavily. So they make changes more often to their setup guys, and their seventh and eighth inning guys, because there's not as much scrutiny on what's happening there. So, you know, it's a little bit more likely to get, if you get a closer, it's a little bit more stable in terms of saves and holds chances. And you might be cycling through, if you go fully punt, and just only take like seventh and eighth inning guys, you might be cycling through a lot. Now, you can probably still fill in on the waiver, but I just, this is my argument for getting one good closer, even in the saves and holds league. - Yep, well, I think that's fair and clear. You also don't to pay the premium for it. They get pushed down a lot on draft day in those formats. So it's not ignoring it completely. It's just saying, I can wait a little while. It's still get someone I actually like from one of those first two tiers. That might be sort of the ideal way to think about the saves plus holds builds as you're playing in those leagues this season. We are going to go a couple reminders. You can join our discord with the link in the show description. As we sit up top, we'll have details for our list of your league posted in there as well. So feel free to click through, read about that, and sign up for the upcoming season. - You know what else I do in the discord is, I've been doing that more fiscidiously this year, is I am throwing in, if you're a listener, if you're a listener and not a watcher, I've been throwing in the charts that I talk about into a dedicated channel. So there's a channel in the discord called episodes. And that's normally where episodes post, but I've been posting the visual assets for each episode in those channels as well. So if you're like, what was that charty as referencing? It's in the episodes channel on discord, so it's really easy to find. - There you go, nice way to get those visuals in there. So we got one more position preview to get to our fourth installment of starting pictures coming up on Tuesday. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Thanks for listening. (audience cheering) (upbeat music)