2026 Prospect Overview + Rookie Draft Trivia - Dynasty Fantasy Football

[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Best in the Baller. Welcome back. It is the coldest part of the year here in the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Morganoni and I'm joined by Matthew Betts and Jason Moore. It is not warm outside. I will confirm. We had-- Speak for yourself. We had 14 groups now. A lot of the country over here. Yeah, but in my words, it's a little, I'm more in pants, not shorts. No. And honestly, I'm in shorts, but I could be comfortable in pants as my point. You're just in a different planet in terms of what the East Coast just experience. And I know I hate talking weather usually, but it really is that cold word affects my day day life, but I know it doesn't really affect you at all, Jason, at all right now. Yeah, over here in our little warm bubble, but no, I know how brutal it was between flights and shipments and electricity. Yeah, I mean, that was a bad weather storm. Betts has a whole different experience getting explained snow to his kids and they get to play outside. There's parts of the country was just sad, cold. It's the doldrums. It's the worst. But, but I do like where we're at in terms of turning the page for the season. I feel like this episode in particular today will not only turn the page for our company of where we're going in prospecting season, but I feel like we get to be really honest. I was sharing with this with Jason yesterday and even today that I think it's kind of refreshing on a dynasty podcast to say right now that we don't know everything about these prospects. Yeah, I mean, the truth is we care deeply about the NFL and about fantasy football and all of that. And that kind of takes up our time through the season of the NFL. So it's this time of year where we are really pivoting. And this is a fun, exciting time of year, but yeah, we don't come into this time. At least I know I don't. You guys probably are a little bit ahead of me. I don't watch college football through the year. I think there are some ways in which that could be considered a disadvantage. I think there are a lot of ways where I think it's a big advantage because I've watched year after year after year, these people who they've known this name for so many years and well, he was supposed to be great and then he kind of tapered off and wasn't that those guys don't usually hit because those are frequent. And so when I come to the table, it's like, okay, what is the current as of like, you know, we're recording this January 27th as of that time of the year. What are the big boards say? What are the consensus mock drafts and, you know, deeper multi round mock drafts? What are they saying? What are the combines saying? You know, the senior bowl, we're at the time of year now where it's like the truth is a little bit clearer and you start from that. And I don't feel like that's a disadvantage. I feel like it's an advantage sometimes. I think I agree with that in some aspects and we were kind of talking before we started recording to like these GMs and these front offices and staffs, you know, they've all got their guys. They've all got their scouting team that have eyes on these players throughout the season. But if we're being totally honest, like NFL GMs and coaches, head coaches, offensive coordinators, some of these guys that are involved in the decision making process when we get to round one, round two at the NFL draft that we generally care about the most. These guys are like just starting on this process now too, right? Because they're so deep into what's happening in the NFL during the regular season. And so it is kind of a, what have you done for me lately? Type of thing where we, you know, we referenced this on the show before. It's like some of this mock draft data and some of these kind of projections on this guy might go in this round or that round from like July, just look completely, you know, you look like back at them and you laugh because they're so outdated and so inaccurate, so much changes from the start of the regular season for college to college while playoff to now. We're going to get the combine is another data point, which has its own medical checks, which is kind of important for some of the players in this class. Obviously the athletic testing and then of course, the NFL draft. So yes, it looks like it's solidified right now, but I mean, things change so so much. Yeah, it's okay to be in process with a player that maybe you know the name, maybe you know part of the production profile. You even know like, hey, I've watched some games of this player. It's okay to be able to say I don't have everything figured out. I remember at this point in the process, we'll talk about the quarterbacks, but it was Kim Ward, Shudder Sanders back and forth in, in January, who was going to be the number one overall pick. And then some of the other quarterbacks, like Jackson Dart was not even seen as a consensus top 50 pick. Tyler Schuck wasn't even the top 100 at this point in terms of just where he was being mocked. So things change. We're willing to adapt with that and kind of see you set the table. So this episode will be a 2026 preview of the prospects. But before we do that, I did want to start us off with a little bit of a little bit of a game. I mean, the goal of every game that you play on a fitness footballer's podcast is I'm going to sound kind of smart and you guys might feel dumb. Correct. We'll see about that. This is my secret is I'm always feeling dumb. So you can't get me at all, Kyle. That is a good superpower to be able to just be like, you can't, you can't do anything to me. I already know what I'm, what I feel. So this is rookie draft pick trivia. So thinking of dynasty rookie drafts, and you can play along if you're listening, I'm going to ask you guys a question. I want to see which the two of you are closer. So the first question here is in 2017. So while back, Christian McCaffrey was taken eighth overall by Carolina, but he was not the one oh one in rookie drafts. Who was it that year? I think I know man. There was a couple guys. I want to say it was Leonard for that. That was going to be my guess as well. Uncle Langs. He went. I think you went fourth to the Jaguars. Yeah. He went fourth overall. It was it was Leonard for net. He was the one oh one and rookie drafts and for a couple years. It was pretty nice. Yeah, once he morphed into a pass catching back for some reason like such a weird career for Leonard for net. He was, he was really good for fantasy yet never lived up to the expectations. It was like, he was supposed to be something he was supposed to be Adrian Peterson. Then he wasn't so he was disappointing. So then he was like, oh, oh Leonard for net. And then I was like, oh, wait, no, he's he's catching like, you know, 70 passes. What he's really good for fantasy to the Uncle Lang trajectory was crazy because you're right. He came out of the gate. Hot like was obviously a very hot dynasty name. Then you're right. There was this like negative connotation. I was like, I don't really want him. And then the Brady years in Tampa, when he was still there, what he caught all those passes. Yeah, he was a key piece of that team. It's so wild to think about those guys being selected just a couple picks apart in the same draft. But Christian McCaffrey had an unbelievable fantasy season this year. Still looks like he could do it for another couple years. Whereas like, I feel like Leonard for net. It's been retired for like a decade. Doesn't it feel like that? Even though obviously it's only a few years. But yeah, they took a different path to what they are today. That draft, if you think about the running backs in the life that wasn't there a third top 10 running back drafted that year. I don't know if I there was another great running back that year. Okay. Kamara was in that draft. That was in the third round. Oh, that is who I'm thinking. Mixen was also drafted in the second round career one class in that draft. Yeah. So that that group, we've lived off that fantasy for years. And you're kind of see them aging out really of the last couple of years, CMC, notwithstanding. But it's it's cool to think of in your rookie draft. If you just took running back, you actually did pretty well in that early club. Yeah, that group. All right. Question number two, in 2018, was the famed class where we had five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. So Baker Mayfield went first overall, Darnold went third overall of the Jets. Josh Allen, seventh overall, Jason knows who went tenth overall to his Cardinals. Josh Rosen, baby Lamar Jackson. Was he 32? You traded up into the very end of that draft. My question is, what was the order in rookie drafts? So I just gave you the order in the NFL Jeff Baker, Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson. What was the order in rookie drafts that year? Oh, man. This is going to look so that's a big order. I feel like Baker would have gone one because he was a little bit mobile Baker went one. I want to say Darnold probably went to because at that point, we loved him. Obviously, Josh Allen being so mobile for fantasy purposes, even though we all universally hated Josh Allen. Man, I'm going to say Baker Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar. I'm going to say Baker, Darnold, Rosen, then Alan, then Lamar. Because I remember when Alan came out, a lot of people made fun of the bills. They were like, oh, you know, play at Wyoming, he's no accuracy, this is going to be a bust. And then Lamar, this sounds so stupid in hindsight, but there was like real NFL analyst being like, is he quarterback? Maybe he's running back. Who knows? You know, he could be either. And so there was the whole stink on Lamar when he came out. He was supposed to change to running back. Like he can't be a quarterback. So I feel like the famous like not bad for running back. Yeah. I feel like I feel like Alan and Lamar were last. It was Baker, Darnold, Lamar, actually third, Rosen, and then Alan went last. We are so smart. Yes. I mean, a lot of that was he can't complete passes. You know, this is what's going to turn into the NFL, his stuff from Wyoming. So interesting stuff. All right. Number three here. I want you to guess where a Monroe, St. Brown went in his rookie drafts. That was in 2021. So he's a fourth round pick by the lions in the NFL. Yeah. So where did he go in rookie drafts? One quarterback, one quarterback drafts. I'm going to guess the 205. I'm going to say later than that. I'm going to say 211. Okay. So you're close. He was the. Okay. We split the difference. He was the wide receiver eight behind names like Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith, Jalen Wattel. We all knew that. But then there was some other, you know, heavy hitters that went before him. My boy, Terence Marshall, Jr. Of course. Oh, lockjaw. Elijah Moore, who has probably lived 38 dynasty lives. And you were probably shocked to see him on your screen running routes for the Broncos in the snow. You're like, Oh, that's Elijah Moore. What's he doing out there? Ron Dale Moore. And then. Oh, yeah. Brown actually went ahead of him as well. So wild. See you. I'm on raw. All right. A couple more questions. Where did Jackson Dart? Okay. The hotness right now. Where did he go last year in one quarterback drafts? Man. He had to have been a third-rounder. Jackson Dart. Mobile. Where was he drafted? I know it was last year. Was that-- Into the first round, 25th overall. They traded it back up to get him probably, probably second round then. I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say 207. I was going to say 205 again, same answer as before. It was the 211. So a little bit later, it was after Mason Taylor, it was after running Maxx like Jaden Blue in Olly Gordon. So we kind of know how it goes in one quarterback leagues where they kind of get pushed down. Blue team needs running Maxx, but it's interesting to see Jackson Dart with the rushing upside. Something we did talk about a lot. Go that late in the second round. All right. One more. And this one's just plain fun. In 2023, we had a bunch of late-round rookie hits at wide receiver, including Pukin Akua, who basically went undrafted. Yeah. He was a waiver wire in both of the dynasty leagues. And somebody out there's like, I got him in the third round of the fourth round. Basically, that's where it was. I want you to put these wide receivers from that draft in order of where they went and rookie drafts. Rishi Rice, Pukin Akua, Jonathan Mingo and Parker Washington. So these are in the dock. If you need to see them again, Rishi Rice, Pukin Akua, Jonathan Mingo and Parker Washington who. Mingo had to be first. Okay. So Mingo was definitely the first one. He definitely was first one. Right. The top of the second round in rookie. He was like the key on Coleman range from previous seasons, right, same area of the draft. I feel like we need to rename that for those guys because that's what it is every year. It's like, Oh, you're drafting the second round. I guess I have to take you here. So yes. Mingo went first. I'll say Mingo Washington, Rice, Akua. I think that's the exact order I would go. I know. I remember in my personal rankings, I was a little higher on rice. I think I might have had rice ahead of both of those guys, but I think ADP wise rice would have been third and Pukin definitely was for. Okay. It was Mingo rice who went. Oh, all right. And Jason, I remember that conversation very vividly that you were pounding the table. Like, I really like this Rishi Rice guy. I was like, man, my guy said, and then my conversation was, I got a guy who says, he's got some off the field stuff, then Pukin and it looks like we were both dead on. That's usually what happens in these conversations, right? I was like, you look back and you're like, well, I guess we're all kind of right and wrong. But it was Mingo rice, Puka, and then Parker Washington actually went forth among that group. Oh, really? Okay. So, interesting to think about the trajectories of all those players, even rice right now, where it's like, I don't really know where he fits. He's kind of in this no man land of, is he a gadget player? Is he a White receiver one? Is he going to be on this team? Is he going to keep facing legal issues? All those things and then, of course, Puka, would you say, as of right now, so Tyreeks is probably the greatest dynasty steel of all time. Just off of it. Yes. He was a waiver wire in all leagues. He was not drafted. This was a fifth round wide receiver who was basically used as a running back in college and you didn't expect much. Would you say that? Him and Puka. Would you say Puka has been a greater value to your team. It's only three years in. It's so hard to talk about, and so recent, right, like the Puka, we're in it right now. Oh, and it's great. And Tyreeks, obviously, what we last saw was the gruesome injury. I don't think you can say Puka is where Tyreeks was. Tyreeks, when you got him off of waivers, you got a guy who was, I mean, I'm looking at his career fantasy finishes. He finished as the White receiver four, the White receiver one, the White receiver two, the White receiver six, the White receiver two, the White receiver two. That's one of the best White receivers of all time fantasy wise. I mean, you've got to be Antonio Brown to be, you know, having that many elite yearly finishes. Puka could get there. Puka's on his way, but you pretty much can't get better than Tyreekill. One of the best fantasy assets of all time went undrafted in all of our genius rookie drafts. And what's crazy about Tyreek is his best years, probably were actually with the dolphins, like it wasn't even those chiefs years, it actually got better where Puka the last two years in terms of yards, brought run has put up back to back, maybe the greatest back to back seasons of all time. Like if you stack them up over the last 20 years, Puka has the third highest and the fifth highest yards, brought run seasons over the last 20 years. So pretty crazy and you can look back at Puka's profile, remember us behind the scenes looking at him and it's like, man, he was hurt, he changed teams, his yards for outrun looks good. I don't know what to do with this player. And obviously the NFL did not know what to do with this player except for Sean McVey and all their, you know, interviews afterwards saying like, we want this player, but it's in the prospecting season, you're going to find guys like that where you're like, I don't really know what to do with them, don't just assume they're all going to be Puka Nakua or Tyree Kill. In fact, it's probably very few they're ever going to do that. So that's any last thoughts? Well, I just think this exercise was really valuable to make people realize how bad all of us collectively as a dynasty community are at this right and the NFL, how bad they are at this. So I think I said this last year and I'll say it again, like if you have a different take than us, your leg mates, the market from an ADP standpoint, like do not be afraid to exercise that take if you have it and call your shop because you get stuff wrong all the time, but there's like the psychological barrier where it's like, well, he goes at the one of seven. So I almost feel like I kind of have to take him if the he's not a guy that you believe in. If you didn't believe in Matthew Golden last year, pass on him, right? Like, take the guys that you believe in. If it's a spot or two ahead of ADP, who cares in rookie drafts, people were, you know, people were mocked or criticized when they said that neighbors was better than Marvin Harrison, Jr. Yeah. And they were near each other, they, you know, they, it wasn't, it wasn't outland as they were in the same tier. But still it was like, well, he's clearly not better than the Hall of Famers son. And I mean, obviously the injury might do rail things and in the future, maybe Marvin is still better than neighbors, but that doesn't look like a even incorrect thing to say anymore let alone outlandish. So I think that's good. But I, I would also say I don't want to, I don't want to say that the community is a whole that we as a show that the GMs and scouts and people that do this, that they don't know anything because I, I do believe that the majority, what, what we've done in this little list here is we've talked about the outliers, right? Josh Allen is an outlier, Puka Nakua and Tyree Kill were outliers. You look at last year and yes, you're right, the, the, the, um, Jackson Dart and Tyler Schuck. Those guys came from, you know, this time of year, from nowhere, because fantasy relevance, RJ Harvey last year, this time of year to fantasy relevance. But this time of year, last year, it was like, the top backs were Ashen Gentino, Marian Hampton and Travion, the top wide receivers were Travis Hunter, if he was a water receiver at the time, Teterol and McMillan, Golden, Egg, Buka, Birden, those. So that's the order they went in the NFL draft. So, you know, the lay of the land episode we're giving today, it's probably mostly accurate, but it is certainly not gonna get everything right. It's impossible. - Yeah, and I just, I like how you guys point out, there's nuance in all of this. And so we're trying not to have our hand just so heavy that this is exactly how it's gonna be, while also not swinging all the way to the other side and be like, we don't know anything, we're all screwed, and we're all gonna get it wrong because there's gonna be outliers in the entire process. Look at the NFL this year. The matchup in the Super Bowl is two teams that if you had a bat before the season would have been the highest combined odds ever for an NFL Super Bowl. So. - You know, it wasn't just a Super Bowl. I saw this thread of the final four teams to make it. If you include the Broncos and the Rams, it was like those were all extreme long shots, like 24 to one to make the Super Bowl. And those were the final four options to, those were the only teams that could have got theirs, wild year of parody in the NFL this year when you have Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, not even dancing in the playoffs. - It was refreshing for thinking about what playoffs had been the last 10, 15 years, Brady or Mahomes is what it's felt like most of the time. It was refreshing to kind of see some different names pop up. But let's say a quick break and then we'll talk about these prospects. All right, it's that time of the year where we are going to press reset. We're going to look forward to a fresh crop of rookie. So let's get into it. - Hey rookie, welcome to the NFL. - So as Jason mentioned, the way that we go about it with the fans footballers is we first look at mock draft data, which is aggregated from tons of tons of different places. We use NFL mock draft database a lot for a lot of our research behind the scene stuff. And we start from there saying who are the names that we need to pay attention to? There are names that you've heard about for years that maybe if you're watching College Football, you know them. And the reason why we want to do this is we want to say this is a starting point but not an end point. And then we also get to look back at the last couple of drafts and say, is this a offensive heavy draft or their players that are showing up in the first, second round and can we get excited? So just to give you some context. In 2024, as a couple of years ago, there were 20 offensive skill position players drafted in the first two rounds of the draft. So first two rounds. - Meaning there were 20 fantasy players. - Quarterback, running back. - In the first. - White or sea were tied in. Last year, there was 21. Right now, there are 16 currently being mocked in just seven in the first round. So. - Seven in the first round. Disgusting. - We're here to get people excited. And if you're listening at this point of the year, you already are excited. But we. - For 20, 28. (laughing) - It's tough to be able to paint like a really, really big picture and say this is what it's going to look like. There will be names you fall in love with, right? There will be running backs that right now are being mocked. I don't know, third round, fourth round. They're going to end up being in the second. You're like, I knew it. This is the guy I really, really liked. And I even wrote a message to myself the other day. I said, I bet. I'm going to get something from Mike Wright that says I love this player. So. - Oh yeah. - For sure. - That's my bet. - New favorite game. - Mike and I, we always fall in love with a running back or two and hate a wide receiver or two. And I feel like more often than not, those are right. Now, ever now, and then you get a Caleb Johnson. I apologize. (laughing) You know, the stealers in the draft season liked what they saw than the same as I did, but apparently not once he was on the roster. - He's not dead. He's not dead. - I know, I know. Never wronged us early. We'll just wait another year. Maybe he'll prove me right. But yeah, I feel like Mike and I are both very similar in that way that we can fall in love with a wide receiver and fall in hatred with, or fall in love with a running back that we see and we're like, "This guy's better than people are saying." Like last year, Cam scataboo was, we're like, "What are people doing here?" And then like last year, we hated Matthew Golden. I couldn't believe he was a first round wide receiver and those feel good. - I was looking back at even further than the last couple years and pretty much there should be about 20 players in the first two rounds that are offensive skill position players. And right now it's just, it's not looking as good. So if I were to give like, right now advice for people, I'd say if you wanna move up in the first round, you can do it. There will be names that emerge in the late first round or your rookie drafts the second round that become valuable as time goes on. We talk about how your picks become more valuable as we get to April. But if you're trying to weigh, you know, I have the 109, what should I do with this pick? Your 109 is not as valuable as it was a year or two ago. I do like some of the wide receivers, which we'll talk about, that I think there's a good mix of five to six wide receivers. But I also feel like that's gonna be the first, you know, six or so picks. It's gonna be Jeremiah Love and then just a run on wide receivers. - That's exactly how this year's draft is gonna play out if you're in a non-superflex league. Obviously in a superflex you're gonna have the debate as to where Mendoza or if another first round quarterback gets picked where, you know, do you take them over love or probably not? But yeah, it's gonna be those first round wide receivers and there's gonna be four to six first round wide receivers this year. That's where this year's prize is. Last year the prize was running backs. You know, you had a deep, heavy top end crew. And while I think they disappointed on a fantasy finish perspective, you know, it wasn't like you had a bunch of guys crack the top 12 at the position this year. They certainly didn't disappoint. I mean, Quinch on Judkins looked great at times, got injured unfortunately. Kim Skataboo looked like, oh, he is the dude. Omar and Hampton looked great injured. Travy on Henderson just, he was doing his best Caleb Johnson impersonation the first half of the year. But then once the opportunity came, he was like, that guy's awesome. So, and then genty was genty. So I think that it was still not a disappointing year for those rookies, even though for I'm like redraft first year fantasy points perspective, it didn't wow you. But I have no doubt that like dynasty startup rankings, those rookies from last year are going to be great. And that's hopefully what we get this year with the top end of wide receivers. And you were talking Kyle just a second ago about you don't mind trading up to the first half of the draft. What I, what I think you should really do this year is target March target a couple weeks into March because if you are on it right now from now till then, you're listening to these podcasts. We're scouting guys, there will become a clear tear break picture before April. And then April is when the prices are going to start skyrocketing what it's going to cost you to get up there. But if you go like, there's six guys I really like. I got to get one of those top six picks in March. You could probably get it in April. It's going to cost you a lot more. And then obviously after the draft, there will be very definitive tear breaks as to like, you know, and it could change. It could, that's where it's tough. If you do do the trade before the NFL draft, and you're like, I love six guys. And then one of them tumbles, okay, you could get burned, but usually it's the opposite. Usually after the NFL draft, there's a guy that sneaks in and now the tear break gets one bigger. Let's start off talking about quarterback. We mentioned last week, we had a little discussion at the beginning about Fernando Mendoza who before the season was seen as a top 10 pick and he slowly moved to consensus number one overall pick. He's at minus 8,000 right now in draft Kings to go. Yeah, to go number one, but he's got a Raiders tattoo. Basically, he needs to. Yeah, I mean, he should. I was the only way he is not a Raider. The only way that I could see he's not drafted to the Raiders at 101 is he's a raven and, you know, there's a Lamar Jackson trade for the pick or something. He's the first pick in the NFL draft. Yes. The question is about the rest of the class, which we'll have a whole episode where we kind of go through their attributes. We talk about scouting the film, everything else. But behind him, Alabama's Thai Simpson kind of is fortunate that he is the one in this class that is kind of the incumbent number two as of mock drafts and everything else. But he only has 15 starts to his career. Betts, we've talked about this the last couple of years. Like we've trended towards understanding that experience really matters at the quarterback position where you used to think like if you're young and you have the measurable suite, you're going to just be awesome. But it's actually been the opposite or the last couple of years. Yeah, for sure. And kind of the group that he falls into with just this recent trend of like guys that declare without a lot of experience in college, the hit rate there is pretty abysmal, if I'm being honest. Now from his standpoint, from like a you look around the room and you're like, there's no quarterbacks in this class. Like maybe I should just declare like for his agent family decisions from a business standpoint, this is a smart decision, I think, for Ty Simpson because it's a very, very weak quarterback class like. You know, Mendoza's kind of the only guy really that most people would say is like he definitely deserves to go in the first round Of course some teams gonna fall in love with the player Maybe they trade up for a guy whatever, but like it feels like the Kenny picket year right where there was like Maybe there's a guy maybe there's two guys, but really it's like Mendoza and then just a Group behind him and a lot of these guys, you know, Garrett Nussmeyer, Carson back true Aller Okay, Clibnick like they've all really been disappointing these last year you're in half in college Whereas like previously this class was like, oh, this is a nice quarterback class everybody was super excited about this Then you got some guys go back to college because of NIL And so all that to say is the quarterback class is super weak this year You're gonna see that reflected in mock drafts. Maybe you'll have one or two guys in there in The NFL circles and then that's gonna have a big effect on superflex drafts Whereas like when we have some of these years where there's two or three or even four quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL draft It makes the second round of your rookie drafts and superflex pretty valuable because there's gonna be skill guys that get pushed down This year, I don't see that being the case. It's just a pretty weak class behind Mendoza Yeah, I'm looking right now Of all the teams where I'm looking at their week one starter for 2026 and I have a question mark next to them either for injury purposes like the Falcons It's like you think it would be Penex, but who knows what they do with cousins could they bring it a veteran? They don't know what they're doing, but then I look around the league and it's like the Browns big question mark the Colts week one Question mark of who that person is the Raiders probably Mendoza the dolphins are a question mark the Jets are eternal question mark The Steelers are a question mark any of those settings Jason that you would be excited about for a rookie quarterback Not really. I mean, yeah There's a bad combination of no huge top end quarterback talent and all of the jobs are not that desirable. I mean I would have said the dolphins You know with Mike McDaniel there he had two of leading the league and in passing yardage and you had Obviously waddle and HN and But now I'm not sure how valuable that job is from a fantasy football perspective or not for an incoming quarterback I'm never going to trust a jet You know it's it's it's poor jet fans poor jets fans I know that the rumor of like Dante Moore was Supposed to be one of the the quarterbacks in this class. It was two quarterback draft class and the rumor was He went back to Oregon because he didn't want to go to the Jets I don't think that's true. I think the more likely outcome as he was told he Wouldn't be a top two pick because if you're a top two pick you're you're literally I know he's going back and he's getting an IL money Getting like four million or something like that But if you're a top two pick you you're signing a 50 plus million dollar fully guaranteed deal Browns Jets cardinals you take you take it. I'm guessing that his team was told he wouldn't be that that high of a pick So yeah, I don't think this is going to be a great year for outlier Surprising quarterback play however. I don't know that we would have looked and said I mean Who had coming into this past season a much worse wide receiver core than the Saints You had Chris O'Lava that you weren't sure is if he's going to be able to play a full season with his concussion history and No one. I mean right before the season they traded for Bayley and you know, it's like you put some respect on Rashid's heed Okay, yes, they had who was probably there it felt like oh man This might be your best wide receiver going in, but that wasn't like You know a coveted spot and Tyler Schuck came in and you know, so if if a guy can surprise and be good I know Trinidad Uh, whatever, yeah, Chamberlain's if he is in the draft this year Which currently is because he was denied eligibility to go back for a 17th year of playing college football He's fighting that though due to injuries and other things He's a TBD, but I know Andy likes what he's seen from Trinidad So maybe that type of a player can come in and and surprise and exceed expectations in one of these bad situations But the 30,000 foot view right now is it's bad your quarterbacks bad spots for quarterbacks I will be shocked not just surprised if if there is a true emergency. Yeah Chamblis is an interesting name when you add in the rushing upside another name That's at the senior bowl right now that I just need to throw out there is tail and green use that Arkansas and they were terrible They lost their last ten games, but six six two twenty nine. So he's just a freak athlete He ran for almost 800 yards this past year. He has the rushing upside if it teams like oh he's interesting Let's make him a project on you know day three day two He's a name that I just want people to know tail and green from Arkansas But overall picking up on the new Logan the new Logan Thomas. There you go You guys remember Logan Thomas? There's that just me as a card. No, no, I remember him. I remember him. We drafted Virginia Tech just the the amazing monster of a man Who is like man the skills that he's six six five hundred pounds We could throw the ball through a mountain not over it and it's like he finishes career tightened Which I thought he played well as fine. He had a couple of good years. Dude tail and green Profiles a lot like the type of guy where you're like I don't know if this is gonna work in the NFL, but if he gets some starts I'm gonna play in the fantasy because he will run, right? And that's that's what you're bringing up is just a name to just circle Kind of see what happens over the spring. He's got the the fantasy friendly skill set that we care about. Yes. Yes I let's move to running back where I was looking at the last couple of years We've talked in the past about you know, there's that year was like is it C.H. or Jonathan Taylor? You should take in your rookie drafts and it was like the whole time we're like oh, it's Taylor He's got the production profiles got everything else then if flip flops in the NFL draft, you're like oh, no, what should I do? So those are the kind of conversations I want to bring up not to say like gotcha But just that informs our opinion so much of here's the production profile of a player Here's that they go in the NFL draft. Here's the opportunity with Patrick Mahomes Mahomes said he wants this player and we're all we have the hindsight Benefit of looking back, but those are the things that ebb and flow over the next three to four months Man, that that one is will be an all-timer. I mean it was really crazy. I know some people were Extremely high on C.H. Coming in, you know from that LSU team that scored a Kupajillion points and the production profile the Clyde had was outstair. I didn't like him. So this was really tough on me like he was my running back six Before the NFL draft and I remember that and Jonathan Taylor was my easy running back one And then he doesn't get draft in the first round of falls and then I mean we just saw cream hunt Who was a dominator for this offense? Who didn't have the draft capital of the first round back didn't have the pedigree of Clyde and it was like okay I've got a I've got to change my opinion and I really wish I didn't because Because man talk about an all-time whiff. Could you just imagine how good the chiefs would have been over that time? I mean obviously they won Multiple super bowls were in every super bowl. It's not like they were really struggling But just add Jonathan Taylor to that team that would have been unfair and they had that chance and they took a running back And they just got the wrong one crazy Is wild 2023, I don't know if you guys remember this Jameer Gibbs for most of the process was seen as a He'll go in the second round. I'll go in the late second round and then you know, he might end up being sneak into that That was like the report the week leading up to the draft I remember Peter Shreger was saying that like he's probably gonna be a first-round pick and bets you and I on the DFS Embedding show we took him to go in the first round We definitely did not take him to go 12th overall Which is where where he ended up now that's not normal usually you don't get that much steam on a running back But it was interesting to see that and then last year Shreger Shreger's so awesome. He's I feel like this is the most disrespected I mean not that he's like disrespect people love Peter Shreger. He's awesome But he doesn't get the respect he does or he is genuinely Plugged in that guy is awesome what he says you should listen to I He's just he's amazing. I couldn't give enough Compliments to Peter Shreger Yeah, there's a certain point where what he says in his mock you kind of go okay It's it's gonna look very very similar to what like especially in late April so Peter Shreger's definitely a name But I feel like I feel like oftentimes like what he says is mocked because he says things that seem so wildly different It's like oh come on. Well, he does his mock track come on like off of what he's hearing instead of what he would do Yes, so especially as like whenever the first one comes out There's always like a couple head scratchers where you're like wait a minute and then like a week or two go by and you'll start to see other mock drafts And then that same guy that you were like hold on now is actually in all the other mock drafts And so like he kind of starts to to get things going in that way But yeah, his last like one or two that kind of lead right up They're generally pretty accurate and yeah, he he does have a lot of plugged in information as far as his sources go So he always drops a fun nugget or two like the week or two up to the NFL draft if he you're interested in that kind of stuff, make sure you're following him, really, really good stuff. - Yeah, and then everybody copies off his paper at the very end of the process. Last year, I found this little fun nugget, RJ Harvey in January was going 178th overall on big boards. He ended up going 60th overall to the Broncos. So there was some fun movement there. I remember you're profiling him, we had some split opinions of what he could be in the NFL, but Sean Payton obviously had an idea of how he could work in a committee and then take over. So this year's class has one player in the top 50 currently. It's Jeremiah. - I'm running back. - That's it. - Yep. - I just know, like, we've been playing Dynasty long enough that there will be names. There will be two or three of these names that will enter the conversation of being in the first round of rookie drafts, just because everybody needs running backs. Is that still like, is that a cautionary tale though? Because we've done this for years and we kind of understand that your team needs a running back, but the NFL doesn't need the running back the same way. - For sure. I mean, you can't make that mistake year after year after year after year pushing lower drafted running backs in the NFL, lower NFL draft capital up into your rookie first round over wide receivers just simply because of your team need. 'Cause I promise what your team, what your fantasy roster doesn't need is a worthless pick. And so it might need a running back, but it doesn't need a worthless running back. It would benefit from having a hit on a wide receiver. Maybe you don't need one. Maybe it doesn't crack your roster, but I promise if he is good and is a valuable fantasy asset, your fantasy team will be better than if you, I mean, my cautionary tale was always Trace Sermon. I think I took Trace Sermon over, I wanna say Jalen Waddle in that draft. - Yeah, and that was 100% what we're talking about here. It was my team needed a running back so incredibly desperately and I was chock full of wide receivers. And so I did that exact mistake and you gotta learn from those things. You know, it ended up working out my third round pick that year ended up like, if I had just replaced Trace Sermon and I think it was a large missile, it would have felt a lot better, but yeah, the Trace Sermon first round with, it feels bad and this year is the year to be like, don't do it. I mean, I'm sure that we're gonna fall in love with some of these guys and there will be some of these guys who are second round picks. You know, a handful of them will go in the second round and they'll be valuable for fantasy. But it's really those day three picks that because it's a weaker draft class at running back, presumably at this point, TBD, then yeah, you'll get to pick 9, 10, 11, 12, like around there of your first round and these, you're gonna see day three running backs being drafted over day two wide receivers. And you, but I mean, just be really sure of yourself and your scouting if you do that. Don't mess it up. Well, it's like Bet said, if you believe in someone and you go, this guy fell, you know, your cam scataboo fell to the fourth round and you're like, no, I believe in him and you wanna take him over a guy. That's fine, do that. Just make sure you're really, really bullish on him. Just not one of those like, ah, the situation could work out. And so I need a running back. I mean, use as a tie breaker. You know, that's not a tie breaker. If you're talking about a second round wide receiver versus a fourth round running back. - Yeah, and just for context, to kind of hammer this point home, like we'll highlight some of the wide receiver names here too. There's currently 12 wide receivers being mocked inside the top 75 picks. All mock drafted database as of this week. There are currently two running backs inside of the top 75 in that same metric, if you will. One of those is Jeremiah Love who's definitely going in the first round. So it's a better wide receiver class, I would say, relative to the running back position, which is kind of what you're saying where it's like, they might feel good to take a shot on day three back here, but the NFL is telling us it's not a highly coveted running back class. - Yeah, I mean, what that says to me is maybe if you have a good team, right? So you're picking at nine through 12, you're one of the best three or four teams in your league. And you need a running back. That's your weakness. And you can pretty much be sure that at that pick, you're not going to get a difference in making running back, maybe use that capital to trade for an existing veteran running back in your league versus drafting, you know, under NFL drafted running back with that first rounder. - Yeah, we talked last week about some running back, like Bichel Tuton was the name that we said, if you're going to trade from trade from now, it's risky because they might bring back ETN, but this is a player that you're looking at, how he was used as metrics and say, oh, he's successful in his role, where your late second round pick, who knows what that running back is going to be? The names I did want to highlight really quickly, Jonah Coleman is the other running back out of Washington that Betts mentioned that's going in the top 75, and Emmett Johnson out of Nebraska. Those two have the pass catching profile, which we'll highlight an entire episode talking about these players, but Emmett Johnson led this class with 46 receptions. He's a name that I wrote down, and then he's the one that I said, I think Mike is going to like him. So. - Oh, yeah. - Oh, so you wrote down who your predictor Mike says. - I literally wrote, note to self. - Okay. - Mike is going to like Emmett Johnson. - You know his type. - You know what? - We'll see. - Yeah, yeah, yeah. - Later on the block. - You know what? - Yeah. - We've done this for a while at this point. - Yeah, my goal is to get in, y'all's mind to think, well, how would Jason think about this player? - Yeah. - So I want, do you have a note on me yet? - Not yet. - Yes, last name has to be Johnson. So Emmett Johnson. - Right. - Emmett Johnson. - It's gotta be it. - Say Johnson. - It's gonna be those players. But yeah, there's some names like a couple of years ago. I remember profile and Bucky Irving. - I'm not, I'm not kidding. The next year that there is a Kay Johnson that is like a player that matters. I am going to, like at this time of year, before I scout them, I'm gonna be petrified. I'm going to, I'm gonna put on the tape and be like, please hate this guy. - Please be terrible. - Please hate this guy. It's my weakness. It's Kay Johnson's. - It's just the Kay Johnson guy. - Good. - But I was thinking back to our conversation about Bucky Irving, where he's like, oh, you small, is this really gonna work? But between the tackles, it's like, oh, this is a good running back at Oregon. And there might be a player like that where it's like, the measurable, he's not gonna measure very big. Same thing with James Cook a couple of years ago. It's like, this dude isn't big, but between the tackles, he's gonna work. So when we do our film work, I'm interested to find out players like that. I'm interested to hear Betz's take on the Penn State running back switch before the season. We're kind of seen as, you know, locked in day two picks. Now it's like, okay, what are they? Notre Dame, we have Jeremiah Love. We also have his teammate, Giderian Price. It's an interesting conversation to say that there are two sets of teammates in this class that make up four of the top six. Like that's just not that normal. - No, certainly not. - So we'll talk about all those guys when we have an entire episode on running back. So let's take a quick break and we'll talk wide receivers. (upbeat music) All right, let's talk about wide receivers. I went back last year and looked at who were the top five wide receivers at this point in the process, okay? Teterona Millen was kind of seen as, he's a top 10 guy, no matter what, but you remember there was that moment where the video came out and he's like, I don't really watch a ton of NFL film. - Yeah, yeah. And the question was actually like, posed him the way they answered is like, I don't watch the NFL that much. And people thought this guy doesn't care at all. - Yeah, it looked like he doesn't watch any film. - Yes. - That's what it seemed like. Like I've never, I have no work ethic and I don't watch films taken out of context, but it makes sense that he didn't really pay attention to the NFL that much. 'Cause he was focused on, I'll bet he pays attention to the NFL now. - Yeah. - As a NFL player. Luther Burton was the 14th overall player and then he ended up dropping into the second round. So that one's kind of interesting. And Bukka's kind of held steady. The whole process is right there in the first round. Now, none of us put together the combination with the Buccaneers, but like Betts kind of brought up earlier, like sometimes NFL teams are not just thinking of, what do I need for fantasy? In fact, they're rarely thinking about it. They're thinking who's the best player on the board? So in all the mock drafts, nobody was mocking at Bukka because they have enough wide receivers over there. They just reassigned Chris Godwin. And yet, that's for things change. The interesting names though were Isaiah Bond was 42nd overall. Do you guys remember where he ended up going in the draft? - You went on draft? - Yeah, I mean-- - On draft. - Yeah. - Well, that was because of his off field issues. - I'll feel the legal stuff. - But it's also interesting right after this is where we kind of saw the Matthew Golden Rise. And I want to ask this question to you guys. Do you think that mock drafters in this period, right at Betts? I could hear that nice swing. - Get the drink started. - All right, into your microphone please. - I've got a listener on it. - That was like, almost like it's own sound effect track. It was like a boink. - Should I do it again? - The listeners took that swig with you. That's what it sounded like. - I think you could. I want to see if you can do it again. - There. All right, that was pretty bad. My question after I was rudely interrupted is the players that are exposed on this national level for the college while playoffs. So Indiana had this run, Miami had this run this year. You kind of look at where they were going in December and then where they're going a month later and all of them, and I mean all of them, including like Roman, Henby, they're running back out of Indiana. All of them skyrocket in ADP and mock drafts. That's not a bad thing. We get more film on these players. We also get to just look at the Indiana game and say like, okay, we get some really intense film. We're usually on a Saturday. There's 50 games going on. You never can look at just one player at a time. Do you guys feel like that's a bad part of the process that like these players are hyped up too much or is that just, that's what's gonna happen 'cause they're the only players on TV right now. - Yeah, no, I think it's a bad, I think it's a bad part of the process if it is a drastic shift. There's a difference between getting more film on someone and affirming what was previously thought or challenging what was previously thought to some degree. I think that when there is a breakout performance on the biggest stage, it gets overblown and it gets overblown in a way where it's, well, if that player can step up in the biggest moments, he's a gamer. - That's a good point. - So it's actually even better than it's happening now and that's how I know Matthew Golden's gonna be so good. Did you see his one great game against ASU in the national playoffs? Like he wasn't doing that on a regular basis and the whole world saw it and that exploded his perception and I think that those are the mistakes that are made this time of year personally. - I agree and I think it's really important for what we're trying to do and if you're playing dynasty, what you're trying to do is really want to understand the season that the players just have but also their entire journey to get to this point. Did this come out of nowhere? And if so, that can be a yellow thread flag. Was it injury related that the players' production fell off? Did they have a quarterback issue? We talked about that a lot last year with Luther Burton where he was used just so differently because the quarterback was terrible and all those sort of things. I do really think a lot of this stuff that is so recent can get you in trouble a lot. Like we see it kind of year over year and I'm not trying to pick on certain guys in this class this year but like CJ Daniels, you know, like I don't know, seems not that appealing of a player to target in fantasy and dynasty and not saying he's gonna be a top guy in this class but like he's on the rise because Miami just went on to run like you're saying in the college ball playoffs. So yeah, I really would caution everybody about zooming out as well on these guys and making sure you're not just looking at kind of the last month of the season. - Yeah, the Indiana wide receivers, Elijah Sarah and Omar Cooper Jr. are now both top 75 picks where if we were having this conversation a month ago or two months ago, it does look a little different but there is a good mix of wide receivers. That's like, that would be my main point is there's a quality mix of about five to six wide receivers that I think will end up in that first round or fringe first round status, which is great for fantasy. So we mentioned earlier, if you have a top six pick, you have a top seven pick. You should feel really, really good about having a wide receiver that can kind of replenish with some young players. So at the top, Jordan Tyson of Arizona state has kind of been the dude for a while as a top 15 pick. I know he's had some injury issues and he really likes him a lot. So yeah, I do, I do as well. So him, Karnel Tate out of Ohio State is probably gonna end up being a top 15 pick as well. Another Ohio State wide receiver. Even though he wasn't even the most famous wide receiver on his own team this year. That's Jeremiah Smith. - I mean, it feels like, I feel like we say that every single time. - Because of Jeremiah. - Every single time anyone drafted, he's no longer the most famous guy, you know. Buka wasn't all these guys. You know, for a while it was, it was, well, Jackson Smith and Jigba is the dude there. It wasn't Garrett Wilson. It wasn't Chris Olave, even though they're great and they're being drafted. It was that, now it's, well, it's not, it wasn't JSN. You know, it's the next guy. It's always the guy who's not yet going to the NFL that you just got to wait on. And I mean, it's impressive and it's amazing. And what's crazy is it could be true. Yes. - Could be. And before we move on to the highest state thing, I just want to highlight one important fact for your rookie drafts. Next year, do not get lost in the frustration of what is about to happen with Jeremiah Smith because Arthur Smith is now the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. - Oh, oh yeah. - So when the production comes down this year and you're seeing the third string tight end get targets over Jeremiah Smith. Zoom out, remember the talent is there. Arthur, don't ruin this, buddy. - This is Shane Waldron, JSN. Is what you're telling me is that when you, when you watch JSN with Shane Waldron in the NFL, it's like, ah, he's not that good. This is brilliant analysis. - I can't believe he got hired for that job. - I love it. - I forgot. - I didn't think about the implications of still being able to ruin things for fantasy. When he took the college job, I'm like, yes, we're free. - Can't hurt us. - Where you can't hurt us. - He's just hurting us in dynasty now. He's moving on. - No, he's helping. - He's hurting others. - He's giving the discount. But we've been forewarned by bets here that we'll scoop up the discount on a poor season. - One of the things we usually talk about is a player's career yards per out run. So here's what they did over the course of their college career and you compare it to different. But like, it's a great example of bets of, here's what he did before Arthur Smith showed up. Here's what it looks like there. You have to contextualize all these players, especially nowadays, where there's so many different transfers, so many different changes in the coaching staffs. But the other names, McCoy Limon, who I wish I had a meter in front of me that just showed me every time someone compares into Amon Ross St. Brown, 'cause it will happen a billion times over over the next year. So just wait on that. Denzel Boston, who is huge. And yet, he's the type of player that I usually have somewhat of a pause with. - So I get that. A lot of times, these really large, especially the six, four plus water receivers, they don't often pan out. I mean, obviously Drake London, Mike Evans, there are hits and when they hit, they're fantastic, which is why you go so strong at them. But there's a lot of people who've been overdrafted because of that perceived size. However, since we're talking size real quick, I love this draft class without scouting through them individually yet based on size. The last few years, we've talked about it at nauseam for several of these draft classes. All the wider receivers coming in at 175, 165. You know, the 180. All these top-end wide receivers who are the smaller jitter bugs and maybe that's okay for this modern NFL and the tank delts can succeed. They're not gonna, you know, just get injured. And this year, you look at the list. It's 195 pounds, 200 pounds, 195, 209, 190, 220, 180, 209, 200, 204, 200, 201. I want my wide receivers right around there. I want them right around 200 pounds. And so I love that personally. This feels like such a yin to the yin of last year or last year, it really was a weaker wide receiver draft class. It wasn't super top heavy. The running backs were the prize. And then this year, it feels like the exact inverse where, you know, you got the one guy at running back and then you'll have some guy sneak in the way that, you know, mecha Bucca and some of these guys snuck in and it felt a little bit more valuable at wide receiver. But it was, it just fits so perfect this year where the top-end talent's at wide receiver. - The variety, I think is what I like best. Like last year was running back. It was like, you have genties, workhors, you have hamptons, you have brake tackles, you have tray vion who in space can do all this stuff. Like we had a kind of a nice little sort of running back types that could work in different system. I feel like we're in the same spot with wide receiver where it's like there are slot wide receivers who can step in the NFL right now and just completely bust zone coverage. There's players that can separate. So one of my favorites early in the process is KC Concept Seal, which is my favorite way to say it. - Out of text. - Concept Seal. - Concept Seal. Out of text saying M, love him. I love him so far. And then you have a bunch of other players that are currently being mocked inside the top 75. That's like, okay, there's some deep threats. There's just lots of different name. Jacoby Lane out of USC is also huge. 6'4", he just measured at the senior bowl. So it's a nice mix for us, especially if you're trying to replenish wide receivers. - Agreed? - Which a lot of teams are. When you look at combining this year's draft class with this year's free agents, these guys will be pushed even higher in the NFL draft than what we are expecting right now. Teams that are wide receiver needy, they can't go out and sign just about anybody. I mean, I can't remember off the top of my head who the top wide receivers are, but I looked at the list recently and it was like. - I'm looking right now. - Pickens. - Yuck and worse. - Yeah, George Pickens, if he's not franchise. - Right. - Right, like he might not hit the market. Okay, so let's take him off. - Who is that? - Kevin and it's Christian Curve. - Like Evans, but he's not a, he's not really a free agent. If he, if he keeps playing football, everyone assumes. gonna be a buck in here. - Alec Pierce is gonna make all the money. - Older. - Yeah, Alec Pierce was like the bell of the ball. Alec Pierce, he's a good wide receiver. But this is not like, oh, the number one free agent, everyone's been waiting to hit the market. - Alec Pierce. - Yeah, it's not good. - It's like, yeah. So I think that means more draft capital goes to these wide receivers. The GMs around the league are gonna be looking to the draft to fix their wide receiver ailments. - And what it costs to sign a guy in a free agent, see like, two to at well, signed for $10 million last year. Like what it actually costs to sign a top tier for agent wide receiver is bananas these days. So like you said, from a GM perspective, from a cost planning perspective, getting these guys on a rookie deal, if they can hit for you, it's just so, so valuable. So that's a great point. I think we are gonna see these wide receivers get pushed up quite a bit. - Yeah, the Jaguar is through $10 million at Diamey Brown, because of what he did against Liam Cohen in the playoffs, and then dude never really saw the field, just hilarious. So, a lot of names, a lot of interesting names. Zachariah Branch out of Georgia is a gadgety player. So his role is gonna be interesting. We will have at least two episodes on the wide receivers just knowing how many there are to profile. Those should be really, really good. And then I feel so sad ending the episode this way, but this is kind of how it is in the Dynasty streets. There's one tight end. Can you on Cedeek out of Oregon? That's kind of it right now. That's the only one inside of the top 75. There will probably be a couple of guys that end up in the day two conversation like last year, Mason Taylor, Terence Ferguson, Elijah Royal, all ended up being the second round. But for fantasy, that's the thing we care about. It's pretty big. - The truth is for fantasy, there aren't very many tight ends that really matter. And therefore that's like when you look at all tight ends and all of fantasy that are veterans, there's still not that many that really matter. And that's over the last 10 years of draft classes. So every draft class is pretty much you're not really getting a special tight end or you get one, you know? This last year we got two, three with Fanon. This was a great year for tight ends. This year is gonna be very mild. - And I also think too real quick on the tight end standpoint, from an NFL draft capital standpoint, obviously we care about it to some degree tight end. It's not always as correlated as it is with running back wide receiver and quarterback because the NFL sometimes will draft these guys for a specific need in an offense. Are they a blocker? Can they fit in two tight end sets? Do they envision them as like a complete tight end that can play in block and do all that stuff that yeah, it's great to go on the field. But what we care about is this athleticism, the receiving metric stuff like that. So sometimes you'll see guys get pushed up in the NFL draft even though for us in fantasy it doesn't always correlate. - That's gonna do it for this episode. Make sure you check out all the production profiles which will be available for all these players. So we're diving into those right now. You will have them available to you on Super Bowl Sunday when we get to give the early release of the UDK Plus, the Dynasty pass. That's right around the corner. So. - Yeah, just, you can go to FootClan.com. Just get on the ultimate tier and you will always have access to every tool we have, including every Dynasty thing. Literally if you're just in the ultimate tier at FootClan.com you'll have unlimited access to everything we basically ever make ever. - Next week we will be talking production profiles of first reactions to some of the players and we'll probably find out who Mike's guy is next week. So, dive again next week. Goodbye. - Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footmuller's Dynasty podcast. If you want to take your Dynasty skills to the next level, check out the Fantasy Footmullers.com.