2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Dive featuring your esteemed hosts and monitor and drew, Dinsick, powered by Betts, Birds. Welcome to The Deep Dive. Here we go. It's for Steelers Pod and a usually one of the more fun and kind of outrageous preview pods of them all because we've had some, it's, it's been a journey with the Steelers team. It's been a journey with Aaron. Aaron Rogers and by all accounts, the journey is coming to an end this year. I'm not sure if you've heard Andy, but this is the last rodeo, #lastrodeo, and I'm excited to see whatever gifts these teams come up with to send Aaron on his way, and I'm excited to see, you know, how, how this all plays out. I think the more interesting aspect of the Pittsburgh Steelers is that the long running joke of Mike Tomlin being over 500 has now come to an end. He made the playoffs last year against all odds. He won as we made as he made as he crossed that line that threshold had a winning team again and the playoffs performance from Aaron Rogers was, you know, was a turd at home. It was predictable. You could see it coming in my way, get considering the defense he was up against in the way that the past rush was affecting him in December. I thought. Yeah, but it was enough for Tomlin to hang it up and take a broadcasting deal. I think the fact that Tomlin is not the coach of this team. Was a good call by him because I don't think the 500 record was remaining intact if he was out there on the sidelines this year with this group. What about you? I think it had been close. It's the same thing. We just talked about on the on the podcast for the Browns. Like they are kind of still the same team where you have enough big names and good players in the front seven where it's like, man, you're going to win some games just based on you frustrated the other team. They made three mistakes against the good defense and you won and Aaron Rogers through for like 164 yards. It's just like a terrible game to watch nobody's happy at the end of it. But you end up being in middle of the pack team, which welcome to Pernitory again, motherfuckers, just like, hey, you're drafting 14th again. Like, it feels very close to that and there weren't the last taste we had of Rogers was bad, but he wasn't terrible throughout the season. If you go back and look at some of the stuff and call things considered, especially if you look at some of the really low end quarterback play that we actually saw out there from some of the starters and honestly every backup stepped in it felt like so. It could be worse. Pittsburgh is your second team will go over their offices in here in a bit. We'll look at our power ratings decide just how bad or good this team is and maybe even make it bad on them. We should bet against some of us probably the circus sports family. It was sponsoring this podcast series and the contest I'm flying out Wednesday for bad match. If you're out there, say, I will hang not signing up for contests until we go out for sign up weekend because that's just doesn't matter. Like to, you don't get a better spot in line, I guess, but yeah, join this contest. If you have any questions, reach out to us. We encourage you to enter as many times as you want and you can because that gives you a better chance to win. The maximum out to get weird with it. Yeah. If you're if you are nervous about the size of the entry fee, get a team. Great way to engage with your friends all season long because you sign up in Nevada and you can play for anywhere. You only need one person on your team to be in Nevada to sign up. It is a really fun experience and I'm excited to see as we want to get to the schedule telegraph a couple of the spots where we're looking to bet against this Pittsburgh sealers team because the market still has them around a neutrally rated team. And it's mostly because I'm not there with the offense. As we kind of mentioned in the preamble there, there was a head coaching change defensive coordinator responsibilities largely a little, you know, I guess what was your, we never really, you know, we don't wildcard weekend heading into division weekend, you know what I don't give two flying fucks about is evaluating someone's core, you know, coach's job performance on his way out the door. So we never really gave Tomlin any type of air or thought about you know kind of really reflect on his legacy. You know what where are you with what he brought specifically to the table in his tenure in Pittsburgh and how do you see. You know, just in general that locker room handling a change of voice. It's probably good right because I don't know it's not like I never want to put someone one camper the other like you have your ex and exes knows guys and then you have your leader of men guys and everybody falls differently on the, you know spectrum I suppose and I think a lot of people view him more closer to the Dan Campbell leader of man get you like he's he's that solid voice room but I still think he was so heavily involved in the game planning to if you've listed as press conferences it's not like you didn't know ball and obviously you got to be at coach kind of a silly thing to say but I think it matters a lot to both leadership and you know just how what they do. You know just how what they put together year in and year out and you know we laugh about the 500 record or above every year but that was him and that was a lot of it was him getting a lot out of teams that maybe other people couldn't get as much out of he was a great coach you weren't super balls. Yeah we're going to be down on a little bit. He went to two but one one went to two they beat the card. He beat the card. He beat the cardinals and he lost air. That was a fun one. Yes. Really good. Okay. His crowning moment last year was certainly beating the Ravens to get into the playoffs word. I think everybody remembers where they were for that game. I think that's a good one. I'm going to watch that. You missed my easy lead in four on the on the Steelers winning week 18 to get into the suit to get into the playoffs over the Ravens. That was the memorable high point of the last year. Okay. And yeah I think I think he certainly did bring some schematic advantage to the table particularly on the defensive side of the ball with the way he got his guys prepared. But I do also think most of his value add as a coach was the Rara get your guys fired up the place steal a football type of mentality. And I do worry a little bit that the idea of we have to win. We are a winning organization. We have to have a winning record at the end of the year that that expectation like it was an unspited expectation of the Steelers as a team. That's shattered a little. Right? Sure. I mean, I don't know. I think some of that still comes down from ownership and management to. And you know, there are certain owners who just. This is this is Steelers football. This is the way we play. You know, and. I don't know. We'll find out I guess. Because I feel like we've been doing this for years and there's been at least five Steelers podcasts where it's like this team has no shot to go deep in the playoffs. This team absolutely has a shot to make the playoffs and then lose. They were so sorry. Yeah, but I mean, they always were one with a bullet and Bengals were two. Yeah, but they always have that was like, hey, this is like the somewhere between the seventh and ninth best team in the AFC. It's like, you know, it'd be a lot cooler if they were the 14th best. Somebody, you know, they could draft a high. A quarterback or. They were going to Mason Rudolph for going with God, old ass air broadgers. I think though I think I'm going to go on record. I think the loss of Tom will be felt. I think it's a problem. And I'm not saying that in context of who was coming in the door. I just I just I feel like the potential for this group of relatively seasoned vets to exhale a little bit. Right? Like, like not every season has to be a week season. You know, like there's a chance that this group is that the focus of this season is air and Rogers is last rodeo. We have to get to nine. wins and we're leaving our bodies on the field to do that. Like there's a chance there's a little exhale. I really do think so. I think that I think what Tom and brought mattered and the fact that he was able to reach the highs with and got got to the Super Bowl, you know, get win the Super Bowl, get back to the Super Bowl and then consistently get winning performance out of the group. But guys he was given is going to be the loss is going to be felt. And it was time to go. Sure. I don't just grew that. But I think they're going to miss him. And I think the Mike McCarthy hiring was buzz or didn't get it. Didn't get it. And if you're going to say, Hey, man, get it sucked. They just went with the local guy that wowed him in the interview. And they think they're closer to competing than they actually are in that front office. And that's why they did it. Okay. But I didn't find the process satisfying in terms of them making good decisions in terms of who the right choice is to lead this team in 2026. What about you? Yeah, I have weird feelings about it because I don't know what the right choice was. Maybe somebody who follows his team and cheers for him has a strong opinion on that. But yeah, it wasn't the greatest. Like, do you want to bring in Harbaugh? It was kind of the same thing. Like, and here's a, somebody who's coach for a long time. I think I wouldn't hear that just as much as this. Exactly. And then some people, you know, could point to maybe making a play. I mean, the kubi, I think kubiak was one of the highly touted ones. People wanted him. People wanted the floor. The hate we talked about hatefully already had. I don't know. That's exciting. Anybody, but we just talked about Monk and we weren't super excited. About that mentor. I'm very well, we'll have a lot of time to talk about Jesse. What not the right choice though for the Steelers? That one fits a little better. I guess it's a, you know, you got a defensive minded, but he's not, he's not a, you know, honest 20th season of head coaching and, you know, obviously it's not a long-term plan. It doesn't, it doesn't feel full on. Raiders taking on Pete. I know that's not. Absolutely. I mean, I mean, this is exactly that man. Exactly that. Monk or no could very well have one year in this. I know. So it's a good, it's a good comp, but it's like 80% of that just because he's not 80 years old. You know, but yeah, your face lit up when I made the comp because you were. I was going there for sure. I was going there. But here's my absolute opinion for long-term team building. And roster building and the plans into the future don't love it. For this year, depending on what your plan is, and for me, just looking at a team and trying to grade them against other teams, he is fine. He is like a middle of the pack coach. You could do a lot worse. You obviously could do a lot better down the road. Yeah, not great. This is not, this is not like the, this is not a, I think the Cowboys offense took a step forward by elevating shot and hammer and bringing Clayton Adams. Yeah. When McCarthy was showing the door, there's no way he's got a fastball left, man. No way. There's just no way. Great story. I'm not, I'm not something for him, but he's still middle of the pack for me. Dude, for all I know, he got this job because he walked in there and he was like, look, I don't want to do this for a year. I will take all of the blame for this going sideways. I will get you the number one pick and you'll pick a quarterback ahead of the browns. Yeah, I don't think anyone's having that conversation. I'm just saying, I like that. To me, makes more sense as to why you would choose this guy to be your coach than you think, hey, man, you know what, we just needed a new voice and Mike McCarthy's that guy and now we're going from wild card hosting loss to deeper run in the playoffs. Like no freaking way. I'm not seeing it with McCarthy, not seeing it. And that's the, the Raiders thing, man. You know why that's such an easy comp, right? Yeah. You see who he brought in as the DC. Yeah. I don't know, man. I don't wish McCarthy ill will at all. He has consistently gotten the short end of the stick in terms of public perception because whenever his team does something stupid, they've cut to his face and he is making a very stupid looking face. So he has a branding problem that is not necessarily his fault. But I don't know that his value add in terms of offensive scheme in today's NFL is a positive at all. And I think there is absolutely a world where the defense under Graham is worse. The offense under McCarthy is the same or worse. And this team is looking at a, you know, a hugely disappointing performance compared to expectation. If what they thought they were getting out of McCarthy hiring was another bite of a championship apple because this is not, this is not a team with enough talent to consider themselves in that next in my opinion, even in a very weak FC. Yeah. I think, I think just the talent pool and the defense, it takes a year to for Graham to ruin it. You know, the, the, the leftovers, it's going to be fine. And I said, yeah, I'm not excited about McCarthy calling plays again. What we'll see. I mean, maybe he has some sort of rapport with Rogers and gets the most out of whatever the most out of him is. But the interesting one is this Brian Angelico, the, the offensive coordinator obviously in name because McCarthy will call plays, but. Yeah, just not. Just jack shit. I just know jack shit about this guy because he came up from Minnesota. That's like my positive here's hey, you have an offensive coordinator that came over from a decent system and he was in the Minnesota system for what? Three years where he was a passing game coordinator. So he would have been the cat passing game coordinator for the Donald year. He would have been a passing game coordinator when. Gosh, when we had some Kirk there. He's been in a few different places mostly as a tight ends coach, but he is now your offensive coordinator. And I mean, they must have liked him enough to snipe him from a good offensive system. Looking at his pictures on the Google image image search when you kind of have some of them. He looks like he looks like a, he looks like a democracy. He's a lot of those things. It's a lot. Oh no. All right, man. Well, good luck to Brian. I don't know. I think he was actually under McCarthy as a tight ends coach in at the end of his green bait tenure. I feel like that was part of it as well. But yeah, he's just I guess let's we're going to get a lot of Washington and Friar Moethie got a guy who was a tight ends coach for 15 damn years. That said, McCarthy's still calling plays. Let's get to the rest of the off season for this team. And then we'll dig in a little bit more into what's how we feel about it. So Aaron Rogers resigned when you're deal Michael Pittman brought over from Indianapolis pairing him with DK Medcalf on the outside. It's not bad outside receiver duo. I think at this point, he brought in Jamal Dean Jamal Dean. I was sage of malls, Jamal from Tampa Bay added him as a cornerback to. I don't know what's I mean, it's a little banged up, but it could be a good defensive secondary if everybody gets healthy. Rico Doudal is on this team. Rico Doudal quietly carries for a thousand yards and gets no love every year. He was with Carolina last year. He was now your kind of split with Jalen Warren. And for two years, they brought in Jacquan Brisk or from the Bears. Shabbos Shabbashtian Joseph Day from Tennessee and defensive lineman. And then Darnell Savage was brought in as a safety. But he was cut like the other day. I just have him in my notes is he was brought in. I think he was just kind of banged up and they said, we have other guys that we need somebody who's not banged up because this will get to the defensive secondary in general is not in a good health position at the moment. So they needed guys who can actually practice Mike Tomlin stepped down as mentioned. John Smith, he was released. We got enough tight ends. Kyle Dugger went to Cincinnati is from the defensive secondary, the safety there. And then kind of the the churn at the bottom. Calvin Austin is a giant Kenny Gainwell is now in Tampa. Isaac Sayama. Oh. Is in Arizona and then another 10 and kind of hay word is in Vegas. Coralist waitman. They lost the punter. I'm not sure if they let him go or if they just said replace him. So they have a new. punter and then kind of some other resigning Nick Herbig and Patrick Queen were resigning. Herbig got some good money four years out of Millie. What do you think of the draft class true? Those who get into that a little. I don't see any guys making an immediate impact. That's kind of where I'm at. It's the opposite of Cleveland where it's like I'm not super sure to get your playing immediately. Depends right tackle is Dylan Cook/Maybe the rookie. You want to take a stab at his name? Yeah, Ian E. Chur. Sure. Ian E. Chur. Ian Ekkur. Ian Ekkur. I'm going to go with the long E. Ha D. Chur. I think it's Max Ian Ekkur. That's the way I'm going to. I want to go in nature. Are you looking at a pronunciation? Yeah. I absolutely am right now. I don't know. This team overall, it needed a youth injection and I don't see that they got one. And a big part of it was because they were picking so late because they won 10 games and because that guy. They were the division winners less. They won their division. They had a home game. That's one of those. Oh yeah, that happened. Ian E. Chur. And then your son. Yeah. Ian E. Chur. He's going to be in a battle for the right tackle spot with Dylan Cook. Jeremy Bernard is somebody they moved up for in the second round. He was the 47 pick out of Widers who from Alabama. They don't know. Some people have him competing with Roman Wilson for the slot spot, but McCarthy apparently has him more of, hey, you might be playing some outside boundary stuff when Pittman and Redcaff are in the field. We'll see. They drafted a quarterback from Penn State named Duelar in the third round. He is on the roster to learn. If he's part of the mixes here, things have gone bad. It's going to be Mason Rudolph stepping in. If anything happens to Rogers, Will Howard also on the roster. You're assuming only one of Mason will mix the team right? Maybe one of them stays with and like the practice one thing. Yeah, I'm assuming it'll be. I think you'll be Rogers Rudolph, Alar. They're around. We drafted a cornerback from the Georgia defense. Georgia defensive players are good, right? And you get three defensive backs on the pop. So that's going to be a long. Dylan Everett might be getting a bunch of time here. They start practice in pads today on the third as we're recording this. Jennings Dunker, which is a hell of a fun name for a guard from Iowa. Is depth behind McCormick? I suppose it's Jennings with a G Jennings with a G, which is fun. I like it. I like it. I like it. I like it. I like it. Why do you see very more like a kick returner, a kid in Wetshen and the fifth round from Iowa. The drafted a fullback in the big two six. Riley Noah Kawasky, a Wisconsin fullback with a big old Polish name. Sounds tough as hell. And then it is some depth in the sixth round. The defense and a safety and another is listed as running back slash wide receiver since he played for Navy. And they kind of have a different type of offense than you might see in the NFL. So depth there. It was a bad off season. I suppose pitmans and I pick up. You drafted another offensive lineman. You drafted a Fetano what two years ago. You drafted Frazier that same year. So you're kind of backfilling. I don't see you might have drafted McCormick that in 24 2024. Are you starting three guys that were all drafted the same year? 2024 Steelers draft. Matt. Two. Sam says that Jennings Dunker's hair is outrageously cool. He looks like a Pittsburgh Steeler very much. I guess he's of your draft class. He's the only guy to say have high confidence. We'll succeed in Pittsburgh and have a long awesome career here. Yeah. Fetano Frazier and McCormick were all drafted in the same draft class. Yes. That's right. Goodness. Goodness. Pull left side there in the center. All right. Well, I, um, yeah, I didn't think that they're, I thought last year in the off season, it felt to me like they were doing a little bit of a they don't realize how far away they are with the way that they managed some of their, their moves. Do you know what I mean? Like the they they were a little bit like a poo poo, we're just a blank away. We're a blank away and they were not, they were not, they were not. Well, yeah, the whole jail and Ramsey Minkov, it's Patrick thing and then. Yeah, the DK McCaff move. Yeah. And this year, like the DK McCaff thing didn't really move Neil for me last year, but Michael Piedman, like that. I like him as a player. Like he's, he's a nice solid guy to have as a wide receiver too. I don't think they really addressed some of the issues, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, particularly getting younger on the defensive side of the ball, which concerns me. Um, but, um, this was a much more muted off season for them. The fact that there was no drama about whether Aaron Rogers coming back was good, I guess, for them, um, kind of kept them in a place where they didn't have to, you know, they didn't have to swing for Ty Simpson early in the draft, I guess they got to go for Drew Larr as a project doesn't, isn't, uh, alternative. So, uh, we'll see if that ends up bearing fruit. He's a big boy. Um, didn't play super well in college, but he's big. Um, I guess, uh, it seems to me like, it seems to me like this is, you know, there is, there is an, there is a, there is an infrastructure, there is a infrastructure here and a broad depth of good players. But very few that I'm like, that guy really helps elevate them up the level, that guy really moves the needle if they lose him their screw. There's just a lot of like, they just kind of, to me, feel like they are, um, just a good, deep team, but not, uh, particularly talented at any given unit other than that's right. Something in eight, eight team if we stand up. Yeah. It's kind of does, kind of does, except for the quarterback. What do we do with quarterback rating? And let's pivot there now because we're going to spend some time on this. Aaron Rogers last year, Andy, as you mentioned, kind of fell in the middle of the pack as far as efficiency stats goes. I know overall among players with 200 plus snaps, he was more like 22nd in the NFL, um, but he did have a bunch of positive games. Um, I think nine of his starts were positives, uh, including three that I qualified as very good starts. Yeah, you're kind of spitting the same thing I found. It's, I guess I, I was surprised at how much positive I found. Yeah. Feel it didn't have a good feeling at the end. Well, there's one left game. Okay. So here's one of the things, right, Andy? Uh, his good, his good games. One of them came against the Bengals when the Bengals were the worst defensive football. One of them came against the, um, Miami dolphins when the Miami dolphins were running out of storm ducks in the secondary, like they literally had no one left. Uh, his, his third good game was against the Ravens in week 18, where he threw them back into that game in the second half and ultimately stole the fourth, the fourth seed, well, you know, the fourth seed in the, uh, in the AFC. And I think the fact, you know, his, his, though fact that those games came against compromised defenses, I think are notable. Okay. Uh, particularly that Ravens game because I just, you know, as you remember, like the bet on that day, on that night was Steelers and it was a very straightforward bet, which was, if he's up against the team that can't rush the passer, like he's going to do well because he was doing this thing where his time to throw and is getting the ball out of his hands was just like late, like late era Tom Brady, like just fire, fire, fire, fire, fire. Like who cares about the offensive line and how, whether they're winning their 1v1s, I'm getting the ball out of my hand so fast that it doesn't matter. And I'm, he, and he got it out of his hand a lot of times accurately when the play didn't set up for a quick delivery and success. He threw it away. So there was a lot of throwaways. Um, didn't get sacked a lot. He didn't take a lot of negative. One of the best at like deciding this is a throw away over the course of career. Oh, no question. It doesn't, uh, yeah, it's almost like he is an analytic sky. Or as far as like this is the blusher of two evils. He's very good at the lesser of two evils as far as making those certain decisions. Absolutely. Which is such an eight and eight quarterback man. Yeah. He's going to keep. When he went up against the more disciplined quarterback, the more disciplined defenses and the defenses that really could give him like a, like a difficult time, namely like the sea hawks, the chargers. Um, it didn't look great. And I want to kind of key on that chargers game. So week 10, uh, Jesse Minter and the chargers handed the Steelers a 25 to 10 loss that was, um, his worst performance. of the season, it was his worst performance of the season by a lot. He got exactly the time in that game through two picks, 16 for 31. He was wildly inefficient, minus 19.1 EPA in that game. And I think when you saw that game and you rewatched that tape, it was like, okay, we get it. Like this guy was going to run into a hot defense with a good pass rush at some point in the home stretch of the playoffs and it's going to be over. It happened to be the Texans. And I wish I had the EPA numbers for CJ Stroud up for that game because he was not good in that game. But it didn't matter because the Texans defense won that game by themselves. And I think that is going to be the name of a game as you look at particularly the first half of this season schedule for our Rogers because all of the stuff that was an issue for him last year is going to be, I would assume a notch higher this year in terms of how much the past rush affects him in terms of, you know, whether you can construct plays to get DK Metcap open down field and expect that our Rogers is going to be able to navigate a pocket smoothly enough to buy time to delivered passes that are effective. It's been very, very strange reading notes from camp about how this offense in particular is going to try to utilize under center more and play action more. I don't think that actually ends up being a thing. I think that gets scrapped week one after Rogers decides he doesn't like doing that again. I don't like that. I'm not going to say that. Like yeah, I said, we were going to do that, but actually we're not because I don't want to. And I think that this kind of season is going to play out largely based on the opposing team they're playing more even than whether or not the Steelers are having a good day. Because there's going to be a lot of games where they're going to need to score 25 to 32 points to win. And I think if you're up against the second half to do that. Yeah, and you're going to have to have, yeah, you're going to have to have, um, you're going to have to navigate that against a difficult past rush probably. And that's that's not that's I don't think it's happening. So what that said Aaron Rogers number for me is a 3.5, 35th percentile expectation for the Aaron Rogers and Brian Almadynger. What's his name again? Brian Angelic Angelic Angelic. Angelic it's it's a leak leak leak and Angelico. Let's just say the McCarthy Aaron Rogers experience together is going to get us about a 3.5. That's my opinion. I'm at 3.7. I honestly thought I'd be a little I I thought you would be very down on this team, but anything about the Rogers experience that I was kind of either glossing over or cherry coating or not giving him enough credit for. What do you think? No, I mean, this should be rated as below average based on what we saw from McCarthy and Dallas and what we saw after McCarthy and Dallas, what we saw from a aging quarterback. There's positives, but there's not enough to get this to leak average yet. We'll see maybe the offensive line and the addition of pitman brings us off and stuff and notch. Maybe Angelico matters. Maybe you know, we've heard this before and it's like how your kids us say like, oh, I'm going to yeah, no next time for sure to add like, I'll definitely put the dishes way without being told like there's some things you just know aren't true. And it's like when McCarthy was like, oh, I learned all these analytics after the Green Bay jobs. Okay, night. We'll see. Like you're still very much middle of the pack for me. So 3.7. We're not too far off. I'm a little higher in skill than you though, I think. Where'd you end up there? I'm at 4.5 and some of this is that I'm not really super into this running back room. I'm not super into the tight end death chart right now and I don't love the Roman Wilson slot experience. It's kind of two wide receivers who I think are talented in certain roles and responsibilities, but are not game, you know, game razors. So, you know, just generally, again, like a lot of good, but not any guys that I think are real differentiators. What do you think? I like Pittman a lot for the what he gives Rogers like you talked about the quick out stuff. He's a, I will, you know, fight for possession here and make contested catches that it doesn't have to just be deep stuff. And I think having a guy like that elevates Medcalf, I kind of tip the scale up a little based just based off the player ratings because as you mentioned to I like Friar Mooth in Washington. It's not like an elite tight end combo. It's good. I love Rico Dowdell, but at the same time Rico Dowdell, Jalen Warren isn't some elite running back room. Everything is just, hey, this is good. It's not bad. And then I think you have an above average starting might receive a duo below average slot. So I'm at a 5.4. Okay. We're not that far off though. How about offensive wine? This one tricky for me. Super tricky. Let me tell you how I landed on four for this group. I think they're going to be worse than average. I think Fetanu is a plus for me. Dylan Cook is a minus Spencer Anderson is a pretty significant minus for me. He could probably get beat out by the backup guy they brought in Brock Hoffman. And I wouldn't be shocked with Brock Hoffman's also minus for me. So it doesn't really help their net rating. Zach Frazier, small minus, Mason, Chromick, small plus. And yeah, I think if Dylan Cook loses the job to I and acre, is that it? No, I am on the on the on the on the on the on the tour. If he loses the tackle battle to Ihanacore, that's I don't know that that really makes me excited about Ihanacore as much as it is kind of confirmation that you needed a big relative significant minus on Cook and that you're probably going to get it at minus early on Ihanacore. So for for me, but room for this to go up if they somehow find competency in general, like McCarthy's head, okay, offensive lines. So I don't know. What's your what's your read? What's your good blocking tight ends? Yes, that's he. I build that in a little so I'm at a 5.6. Okay, I'm probably a little I like the left side of the line. I agree. Spencer Anderson is absolutely soft spot. I don't have I have Frazier as a plus. I have McCormick as a bigger plus. I think Fattano's fine. And I have good just some of it was not so much player grades, but it was hey, they braided really well in like run blocking. And some of the things they did were decent as a whole. So I have a little bit of average. I'm going to have to make some adjustments based on who wins the right tackless spot between Cook and the rookie. We'll just call him the rookie. And then Brad Jones still on this roster. How about that? I don't think he's being hurt right? He's hurt. Yeah, he's hurt. But he's clear. I think he's been cleared to start practicing with no restriction. So you might be part of that. At least that's at this point. I this was one of the offensive lines that across the industry was kind of higher standard deviation. Yeah, it were groups like four for four that had them as high as all ranked 11th. Oh, sorry, FTN, FTN, FTN had him 11th, four for four had him 16th. Mike Clay had him 30th. So big, I don't know if Mike Clay is offensive lines matter. Resurating his ratings might be noise. I have no idea. I just am noting. I am coming in with them right around like the 22nd-ish group. Not super talented. But again, like, that's a good. And then maybe a couple of weeks, but four point. Oh, fine. This offense overall for me because I'm coming in a little light on the quarterback number. Yeah, 26th in the NFL is projecting a 39th percentile offense from this group in 2026. What about you? 47th. I'm closer to average. I was higher on everything. So obviously, we will have to revisit my offensive line number. I think as I get to camp. That's my face. I think I think I know what I have in Rogers. I think I know what I have in these skill position guys. I need to keep an eye on the offensive line during camp and preseason. Did you did you clock anything that Artsmith said on his way out the door about this offense that kind of implied that there was a day they were either training up or down with him gone and McCarthy stepping in. No, really? Okay. Did John and Smith go back with him to Ohio State? I don't know where John is like this. I don't think he's on a pastor, right? It's yeah, it's the eligible. Still does he have any eligibility? Just look up John and Smith and go to the news tab. The latest news is And it's like it's like buying me some hair but it'd be fine dunno how could describe whether, it's from the points to哪裡. a 25 moments from 25 seasons for FIU when he had a really big day. He had 140 yards and three touchdowns in a win over middle Tennessee State. - All right, well, I'm gonna be kind of curious to see how they look, what is going on with this team throughout camp on the offensive side? 'Cause again, my ears picked up pretty quick when they were like, "Oh yeah, we're gonna be doing under-center play action stuff more." I was like, "With him?" Okay. - Yeah, you know who's not gonna let you do that? - Him. - Him? - Okay. - He's like, "Hey, we're switching to a play where I'm in shotgun." - Yeah. - All right. - Nelson, that doesn't make sense. It's like when we saw that from Kirk Cousins, his first year in Atlanta. - Uh-huh. - Hey, he has to make three really quick steps to reach out to the running back that's like, and he's playing more from under-center and it's a kill, he's still healing. And it looks like he can't make that move right now. Like, what are we doing in it? And also, hey, this guy's 48 years old. Let's not, RIP George Blanda, but not everybody has at that age anymore. Let's put him where he's comfortable. - Do you want to say, and maybe, or maybe, let's loot some games and get eye-drafting. All right, let's defense. - Okay. This is a, again, a very tricky one because from an efficiency standpoint, last year, they created well, but I thought, and again, like, whatever schematic advantage Mike Talman brought to the table for the defensive side of the ball, it is undeniable that they were like a little stagnant. Is that okay to say? Like, they didn't have, they weren't doing anything that was like, like the defensive coordinators that kind of inspired the imagination like the Mike McDonnells of the world are creating advantage through confusion and misstiems kind of really just sending mixed signals to the quarterback at the line of scrimmage so he can't make up his mind before he's napsable. And you could, you could against the Steelers. So you could kind of diagnose what was going on and make a call against these guys. And they didn't move TJ Waterround. They didn't really have, they just didn't really have many varied looks that were just, they were who they were. They had run gap weakness I thought last year. They definitely, especially early in the season, it felt like they weren't tackling well and they finished the season right around the average. And I think I'm going in this year with a little bit higher expectations for this group than they finished last year in terms of VPAPerPlay, but not by much. My run stuff for them is five. This came hayward, is this your 40 season? - It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. - It doesn't matter. - I don't know what their best, he was their best red. He was their best red. - It is 16. - 16. - For Jesus Christ. Benton, fine. I don't know, no issues with him as far as a no tackle. Dare Carmen, I thought got better as the season went on, but he's a high draft capital. So maybe he takes it on the step forward. You don't have to get a great year out of hayward. The edge group are not great in the run. And then the linebackers, I have a pretty weak grade on. So good D line grade, bad linebacker grade for me and ended up at a five for run stuff. - Yeah, a lot of mine was, I'm six point. I'm higher than you in everything. - I just, I'm, you hate the Steelers, I love the Steelers, apparently. - My grade for fun stop for Peyton Wilson last year was bad and he's expecting to be the big, you know, he's expecting to be the big part of that run stop. I don't like that at all. If you can get to the second level, wish you might not be able to get to the second level. If you can, you're gonna have some success against this group on the ground. - Yeah, I have good enough grades on Harmon Benton and obviously Cameron A. Word in year 20. And at the same time, you have depth there. You have, yeah, you have black and a special Joseph Day backing them up. Like you mentioned, the linebacker stuff, not as excited about Peyton Wilson, but if Patrick Queen, and if they get healthy, you have some defensive secondary pieces that can step the run too. So I'm above average, they grade it out well. A lot of it is just, it was the sixth run defense by I think FTN standards last year. I think they're gonna be close to top 10, probably not there. - Okay, for pass rush, I'm a 6.4. Part of that is actually, came Hayward matters more in your pass rush for getting into your pressure than he does in your run-stop game. Her big and what are both good players. I think they are both overcompensated, frankly, considering where they are grading right now in terms of win rate. Axe High Smith also think is a little bit overrated. And I don't like really any of your safety group as far as being able to throw a wild card in there for pass rush. So I'm at a 6.4, which is good. - Oh, a brisker. I like, I think briskers a little, versus he's underrated. - I mean, maybe he's actively perfectly rated. I'm gonna, I'm gonna eat, I'm still just, I'm banking on the names and where I have some of these individual player ratings and how it looks when they're all healthy in this convention. It's not just Wat and Hay Smith. It is a big part of a cam Hayward existing. Hair big, good, possibly great. Harmon is starting to come along in, it'll be his second year. And as much as I don't wanna ever say anything nice about Patrick Graham, I almost think he fits better here. Some of the stuff he does is very flores light. Who's my Tampa Bay guy that I can't think right now? The head coach down there. Todd Bolts. Bolts lights where there's gonna be some good, it's gonna be blitzing but not, not as much, but a lot of good simulated pressure stuff. So I think he actually fits in well here. And I'm giving them the Patrick Graham bomb. - Ceeley. - All right, coverage for me, this is a 4.6, joy Porter is your best coverage player by a lot. And he's hurt. Which is the good word following. Jaila Ramsey, I have no idea if he has anything left. Jamel Dean, never been a real big Dean guy but I think he's on the wrong side of when he was his most productive. I don't really love the depth. I have questions about the safety. This is a group that I think finished this below average in terms of coverage, which means you're gonna need a pass rush, I think, to get your pass off, your pass defense overall above average. Again, I'm higher than you as always, but not by a ton. I'm at 5.4 and this number is one of the ones that's written lightly in pencil based on the injuries. You have some guys on pop, Porter Ramsey, Dishon Elliott, even just getting held out of some team drills. And then the rest of it is new players who bring it in. Like we said, Jamel Dean from Tampa, bring it in Brisk or from Chicago. The depth at that point is, I mean, who you got the Sante Samuel, you got some, that Dailin Everett, the third round pick is probably Porter's backup on that side. You signed Rashon Jenkins the other day because of the Savage cuts. You've got your strong safety. Probably second fiddle right now is that seventh round pick. At least that's where our lads has it. So, we'll thin there too. I'm probably gonna be bringing this number down. Especially if we don't get healthy. All right, let's go on with my camera, man, but I'm struggling. - No, we'll do. We'll put up a chart. - There we go, I'm back. All right, well, I think all that's pre-reasonable. I think your number being positive based on what you've said so far makes sense. Your coaching numbers higher than me, your special team's numbers lower than me. I'm gonna bring my specialty numbers down to you. I do wanna say however, Chris Pazwell. - Chris Pazwell's a good pick. - You can kick the shit out of the ball. In total, you are a 50.5% tile team for the Steelers. I'm a 42.2. You are a plus 0.12 in terms of rating. I'm a minus 2.24. So, big gap here. And you know, it's fun and interesting about that gap, Andy. We straddle the market. Market rating for the Steelers is a minus one. - If you average their numbers. - If you average their numbers, we're on market. - You're a stream of the crowd this year. You are betting on the Steelers this year. I am betting against them. And I feel fine with that. What's your projected wins? Like seven. Six point eight. Okay. Here's the other thing about this. And we'll get this schedule in just a minute. The Browns have the 30th easiest schedule in the NFL. I know I fucked up one when we were doing the Browns podcast. They have the 30th. But and then this is again, this is not a lot last year and stupid crap like that. I'm taking my ratings and adding up the average rating of the teams you play on your schedule with my ratings. I have the Browns is the 30th hardest. So, you know, 30th easiest. Bengals for me, 29th, 4th easiest. Ravens for me. 28th, fifth easiest, Steelers 16th. So because you won your division last year and you get the first place schedule, there is a gap between you and the rest of the FC North. So with that said, I'm against the Steelers considering their market rating is around a minus one. Let's look at the schedule that we mentioned. Unless you have any other thoughts on the overall? - No. - Final scores here. - Pop over to the sketch. And that is what is the problem when you win the game? - Schedule. - Although, man, they get, I don't know, the leaks expecting something out of them or they just want to do, it's a good fan base and they get to do a little bit of the Rogers retirement tour. Should we just do that instead of discussing the strengths as go through each team and see what the farewell gift would be? - Yeah, Atlanta is gonna give 'em peach basket. - I would assume. - I didn't check, they don't play them, but they played them in the preseason. I can take a funny gift from the Johnson and Johnson brothers from the Jets. - What would you give them if you were the Jets? - What would I give them? I don't know, I think these farewell tours. - The only cool one was-- - If you're the Jets, you know what you do. - Yeah, I know where us. - If you're the Jets, you frame the flag that he ran out with before he tore his, before he tore his Achilles. - Frame that flag, send it to him. - You know what, the only cool one of these I've ever seen was the twins gave Mariano Rivera a rocking chair, made out of bats he broke with his-- - Oh yeah. - What was it a cutter? What was his pitch? - Yeah. - That was pretty cool, but most of these like, fucking coach, Jesus buddy. Sorry, you know what I'm talking about. - Coach, can you-- - My bronze can have it too, there's gonna be two incredibly insufferable farewell tours this year. - Here are your lines. That said, as you mentioned, tough as schedule. - He's a schedule. - Yeah, so who do you draw that you wouldn't otherwise had to play because you got second? Patriots, Denver. - It's actually not even really that bad compared to-- - But it already played Jacksonville, no matter what. - Yeah, so it's Patriots, it's Denver, it's Philly. - That's it? - That's it, those are the three? - Yeah, those aren't that really that bad. That's why I guess-- - Still good. - It's a 16th schedule, but the other three teams in your division having such easy schedules stings, I think, right? - Yeah. - The opener, I'm not-- - Am I taking the Falcons plus three there? - Oh, gross. - Goddamn it. I think my fair there is like pick. So it's probably some value to take the Falcons. I think that goes to two and a half. Should I take the three? - You can just not bet that game, you know? - It's tickling two and a half. - It's already tickling two and a half, so that's on its way. - I mean, I have such a low rating on what's gonna happen for quarterback situation there. I probably make that like four man. - Really? - If I have the pitch, if the Steelers is a neutral, I'm assuming I have Atlanta, at least three points, where there's no chance I'd wanna take Atlanta on the road there. - New England? Okay, so okay. So let's actually let's talk about this through a different lens. This is the right way to evaluate the schedule. But the rest is not great. The travel is not great. There's an international game. We're getting our first NFL game in Perry, gay Perry, where Pittsburgh plays the Saints on October 25th. We will also have to suffer through Pittsburgh on Black Friday against Denver. - Yeah. - The Friday of Thanksgiving. God, ooh, man, buckle the fuck up for getting Air Roger, shove down your throat in November, December. My God, Sunday night football, Sunday against Philly, Black Friday against Denver, Sunday night football against Houston, Monday night football against Jacksonville. - But here's the thing Drew. - He's gonna get his ass freaking handed to him. - Does he survive this a lot? - All those games. Yes, that's a great question. That's a great question. - Philly Denver, Houston, in a row, that Jacksonville game, you're Black and blue, man. - Josh Heinz Allen is sending you a retirement gift in that game. All right, no, so that's the lens I wanna look at this through, right? Where are the teams, who are the teams they match up against? Where the past rush is just gonna, you know, bring out the worst of the offense. - Oh, and, you know, we mentioned Cleveland, even losing Garrett, it's still a good past rush. I have Indy, it's a good past rush. You have Cleveland twice, and then you have that Philly Denver Houston stretch, Baltimore possibly. You have a bunch of easy ones, dude, to pin 'til you feel about. And I'm not like scared of Atlanta, Carolina, Tensee. - Most of the good past rush is you play our in the second half of the season. - That's more Baltimore twice. - The Philly Denver, okay. - That Philly Denver Houston Jacksonville stretch, that's nasty. That's nasty. Philly can get some really good interior, quick pressure on Rogers, that's gonna really stuck us up for Pittsburgh in that game. Dexter Lawrence now, and Cincinnati, twice on your schedule, it's not awesome. Baltimore, all of a sudden with Trey Hendrixen, and who's the Mattabouquet cleared? That was actually a surprise. We'll save some more commentary for that, when we do Ravens on Wednesday or tomorrow, but Mattabouquet being available is a very big, bad news for Aaron Rogers at Pittsburgh. This is a, this is gonna be a tough schedule to navigate in terms of avoiding past rush problems for Mr. Aaron. - Yeah, and I mean, it depends how you feel about the bingles, but I mean, we'll assume the bingles don't have the past rush on par with the Eagles, Broncos, Texans, but it's still tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, six games in a row where you're playing teams, where you're rated well behind, or at least a little behind, coming off your buy, you're gonna get the shit kicked out of you a little bit before you get that Carolina Tennessee respite. So it is a tougher schedule, like you said, middle of the pack. I don't know, did you want to look at some betting odds? - Yeah. - You're just betting against this team. - I am, you were betting on them. - There. - What's your favorite way to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers, Andy, Mike McCarthy coach of the year? - Oh my God. Yeah, like TJ watt, D-P-O-I is longer than it normally is, but there's so many good names. I actually like Benito for that. - He spent very little time talking about TJ watt to be not do him enough service. - No, he's fine, but does he have one more really good year left, or did you feel like he's the warm and strap off last year is what it is now? - No, he's still very good. I still haven't rated quite highly. He has to get the sack volume. Defensive player of the year's tough, though, because you've got to get the sack volume, you've got to get it. He did always have that magnet in his hands, where, oh, we're in a fumble that went right to TJ watt. He needs to know one of those years. I mean, there's not an MVP bad, there's coach of the year. I don't think we're giving that to McCarthy. Let's say, wins the division, maybe, but what's his price? It's probably middle to lower pack. That's not something I'm even going to entertain at this. - You don't even want to know what it is. It's 15 to 1, 16 to 1, something like that. - Yeah, we're not doing that. - And again, I like them a little bit above market, but I based on the schedule, I don't see some long tail to the over in the win total. I'm not interested in taking over 10 and a half, over 11 and a half, or even division at 5 to 1, because I like the bangles a little bit. And with the schedule, I don't think that if they over perform, it's going to be 11, 12 wins. I think it's going to be, hey, they won nine games and they beat their win total by half a game. And good for them. - Oh, again. - And the drafts, drafts, 17th again. I'm going to say, maybe looking at the schedule again, if there's some sort of entry point, I don't really think so. You probably go one and one, maybe then you're two and two after four. - Do you play any playoffs, yes, and then sell it at their buy? - You could do that. I suppose if you want to do a little more prediction market stuff and get rid of it. - Right now playoffs, yes, this is supposed to money, right? - I'm higher on the one 56. - I'm higher on the Steelers than you. I'm still not going this. - You're not going this? - So much higher than the market than I want to back them in any, any meaningful way right now. You got a point on them. - Overmarket. - I know, but it's still, it's probably going to be game by game stuff when they match up well. - Okay. - I really don't think you should take the f*ckins with God, man. (laughing) I think I'm probably low on them as well. - I mean, we just, I don't, I'm not going to do it because I just, I don't have- - Especially now, dude, it could be cool. - Yeah, I don't have a semblance of a thought of who the quarterback is going to actually be. [BLANK_AUDIO] probably gonna be to it. What's your read? Yeah, it's probably, it's probably to just based on the injury stuff. Okay. Oh God, hold on my nose and taking three points with two against the Steelers on the road. Yeah, there's better games to bet. And so you know, I'm excited to bet halfway and to a right away off the bat. That is an absolute stinker to start with. I'm not, I'm not getting involved in that game. Any other last thoughts on the Steelers for we wrap it up and we'll wait for tomorrow for live shows. If you're listening to this and podcast form this came out of Wednesday tomorrow will be the Bengals Thursday, Baltimore and by then I'll be legacy clubbed up. And get to, we get to a couple fun teams tomorrow. That'd be good. Live just tomorrow. Hit the thumbs up, hit subscribe if you want to. That'd be cool. Join the circuit contest that'd be even better. See in Vegas. Peace out. Hit the music. I want like a real serious alt under on the Steelers. Under four and a half. It was going to say like you're under four and a half. You have more runway to it. It gives us a schedule. I don't have runway to be over.