2026 Philadelphia Eagles Preview: Schedule, Predictions, Roster

[Music] Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Dive featuring your esteemed hosts Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz Spurs. Welcome to The Deep Dive. We get to put a bow on the NFC's today with the expected title winners. Yeah, let's put a bow on it, Andy. Expected NFC's winner by market is your Philadelphia Eagles. This is a team that's coming off of a relatively disappointing title defense. They were 11 and 6 in the regular season last year, one that NFC used going away. But it was a very uncomfortable 11 and 6. They overperformed by expected win loss. They were expected to win 10. So, in general, I think got a bit lucky. There were some specific lucky examples like when Jordan Davis blocked the game winning field goal by the Rams and Rannaback for a touchdown. And yeah, they were also some lows down the home stretch in particular, a three game swoon where a lot of people were watching. Lost to the Cowboys, lost to the Bears, lost to the Chargers. And they were 8 and 5 holding on to a pretty weak playoff position at that time. And the problems were clear. The MVP quarterback from the Super Bowl, Mr. Jalen Hertz, was underperforming. The tension in the locker room was not overblown by failure media standards, which is saying a lot. And what ended the run which ended in the wild card round of the playoffs to a convincing loss to the 49ers, had the whiffs of the end of an era of trying to compete for championships. They may only have gotten one title run out of what was a very, very strong nucleus because AJ Brown has gone. We're onto another offensive coordinator. Yeah, absolutely. And there's a lot of these eras of like shit, this team is amazing. And they get zero. Some of them get zero bites at the Apple in the Super Bowl at all. Yeah, we're looking at you, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. But yeah, the super team that, how we built that just absolutely mop the floor with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Super Bowl prior was really just nowhere to be seen on the field last year. We still back them up. People still took them. On the start of the playoffs, this was the team that was going to come out of the NFC. Those people were not us, thankfully. It did not have any regrets being off of the Philly bandwagon as I watched that playoff loss of the diners. And it inspired some serious turnover of both the roster and the coaching staff in the off season. The big question is, for a guy who won a Super Bowl, for two men who won a Super Bowl in very recent memory, it feels like the tide is close to turning on Jalen Hertz, the MVP, and Nick Shereoni, if they could go. They crazy. There are some fan bases who turn faster. I'm sorry, Philadelphia. And so though, what are you assholes? Took the wheels off the bundles car. Oh, yeah. I'm sorry. That's the game. You have the game open the chop shop. Yeah, I hope you don't get to go to any Eagles games this fall. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, you covered most of it. It's the Super Bowl defense. Sometimes you see a team really fall off. They still won their division. They had a good winning record, but it was injuries up front, which, you know, every fantasy analyst, I'm sure, took a big victory lap. I'm like, hey, Seikwon had half as many yards as he did the year before. And I said that he wouldn't. A lot of it was just, hey, the interior of the offensive line was busted after week four. And the run, you know, the run blocking was the hot garbage for, you know, 13, 14 weeks. And that mattered a lot to what they did right and offensively two years ago, two years ago. I think something else that mattered was not having Kevin Pettulo call plays as, you know, depends how you feel about Kevin Kellenmore, but I think it was a downgrade there, where it's obviously seeing a change again there. There's a lot of teams. God, the F, I want to give, I mean, this isn't like some scoop that I should give him credit for, but the athletic sent out a couple articles. I'd forgotten it was 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Good Lordy. And not all of them call plays, but that's still so many. And then 14 DCs, even division winning teams. I mean, usually a division winning team, it's like, ah, somebody sniped our guy. I'm like, no, that's not what happened here. It's not you weren't, you weren't the, the lions of two years ago were like, oh man, all our coaches are becoming head coaches elsewhere. This stinks. It's like, no, you, you needed to make a change. I think that was outside of, you know, there were some free agency stuff that's working. Yeah. You look at the D for his prone slusher. It was tough. And honestly, Jalen Hertz wasn't terrible. Go look at his numbers. It was just, but the clear and obvious signs of a progression were there. I want to, I want to believe in him, Pettulo, like go look at his stance. I think you're going through six, six, six, six. Let's do it. Let's cut up the pie. I mean, it's, yeah, it's not all, it's some of it is Jalen Hertz. He is not as good as he was that Super Bowl year where the offense was just humming. And I think some of that was system. But I mean, it's not like he had a horrid year. Yeah. There was bound to be regression because what's a quantity two years ago was impossible to repeat. And you mentioned it. There was extenuating circumstances regarding health and availability of key offensive linemen that contributed. So one slice of the pie, I'm going to say a small one goes to just natural regression. One bigger slice of the pie, I think actually the rest of the pie we can just cut it up into two pieces. The scheme was terrible. Pettulo deserves a ton of the blame. And Jalen Hertz specifically regressed. He was indecisive. He was unable, he was, he was much less effective scrambling. They didn't even really, it stopped using the push push as much as they didn't have as many opportunities of short yardage conversion. And he never really was on the same page with this most important weapon in the passing game in AJ Brown outside of a couple of very small examples. And I think. And that's the question, Drew. Was it was some of its him for sure the blame pie if we're doing the blame pie, but that's the question going into this year was some of it. Or how much of it was the scheme? Does any of that get fixed with a guy we don't know a ton about? Or is it just natural regression coming off a high because even when, even when a player's a better player than, you know, a really elite player is, hits their high, teams adjust to that. And I think there was that plus Pettulo scheme kind of working against him and they didn't make enough counter adjustments to make him as effective as he was two years ago. That's kind of my, the offensive line injuries and him not playing well with in Pettulo scheme Pettulo scheme. It's kind of the whole story. Defense was fine. Oh, yeah, defense was excellent. It was like really good. Here's my here's my here's my general thought. I kind of want to bet against the Eagles this year because I think 20 there, 2024 Superball run was fueled by a perfect confluence of hurts, peaking as a, as an operator. And, you know, peaking as a man that kids like think about what his skill set is, right? Is it the type of skill set that has a 10 year career of excellence? The NFL, no, it has a relatively short peak. And he his best, his best and most effective pass is the deep ball. He was paired with AJ Brown, who is one of the most effective route runners and separators on deep balls. And he got one of, you know, an absolutely elite back in his prime behind the best offensive line in football. And it was just like, you know, like you kind of. I can't. I can't. I can't fuck it up. Yeah, they picked up. They picked them up and carried them to the end zone. Like, hey, you win, you win. Like I honestly think that there is a world where, you know, he hit his ceiling. We saw it. And I don't know that there's a change in offensive coordinator or fixes things. I think there's absolutely a world where, you know, the, I think there's a world where I am being too soft on the Eagles and the impact of losing AJ Brown. Yeah. But you will see that there's a lot of turn. There's a lot to go over. We'll get to that next, but yeah, that part's interesting to the roster turnover. I do think we should spend a little more time on Sean Manion. I'm pretty sure I bet on him. That a pretty seasoned game just because Zimmer would owe it. Like, I feel like he was in that era. He was like, oh, yeah. Back up, back up quarterback. Sean and I forgot he was a backup backup. Yeah, he played like a game two of the preseason. They're like Zimmer and I'm gonna lay the Vikings minus three or something. We're gonna find that but I don't know a ton. It's a you know the case against him. He's never called plays not in the NFL. Not as a coordinator anywhere. I mean, that's where doing case against him. But he does come from the little floor and further up the Shanahan tree. It's probably what the system, what the roster needs for a system. Gap runs wide zone. A lot, a lot, a lot of play action. You have a bell call back as your engine anyway. You brought in some relief for him. It's a decent scheme marriage for you know, sack, sack and a play action quarterback. I guess he's he was a quarterback. I kind of give a bump to those guys because they're a little smarter. That'd be pretty smart to even be a you know, honestly, backup quarterback to probably smarter than some starters. That idea that you just put out there. We're going to get an answer one more year this year because there's like there's so many guys. That's very funny. It's kind of a theme this year is well, let's give it to the guy who held the clipboard. Yeah, and I'll get you know, spoiling down the road. I think the floor, I think the ceiling is high for Manion if the scheme fits because he has some decent pieces that we and it's not like, hey, this is a quarterback that did it eight years ago, five years ago or running back, who's you know, he was good in his prime. These are guys two years ago, one year ago, pretty elite players. You're bringing in some other pieces. You're bringing in a good rookie water seeker. If the scheme works, I think he has a high ceiling, but again, it's a guy who's never called plays, never had to run the entire offense. So the floor slow as well because sometimes you just don't work out and you get another pitulo. I also wonder if the part of the pitulo fail and the way I kind of play that. Okay, god damn, I have so many thoughts on this. It's going to be tough to pull them onto one coherent thing that just doesn't sound like garbage, but I'm going to try. Part of the reason pitulo failed beyond just his inability to kind of see the problems and adjust to what wasn't working was that it didn't ever really feel like he was well supported by his head coach. And Ciriani doesn't really have, you know, kind of good leadership, in my opinion, with a locker room that was full of personalities. I think there are whips of Jalen Hertz has got a little bit of wide receiver diva characteristics, where it's like he gets super bowl MVP, he's finally validated, and he was a little bit unwilling to kind of be taught last year and be asked to do things differently. And in general was, you know, I think a little bit, you know, he just, he made bad decisions within a bad system which compounded some of the inefficiency. I think that there is definitely a world where an experienced Sean Manion has a little bit of might as little floor might as touch in him and like does, you know, kind of, you know, conduct the symphony brilliantly. But I also think there's a world where if it's not going well over a sustained stretch this season, it's the, it's a rerun of Manion where the kid coach doesn't want to take responsibility, can't keep the players from, you know, publicly bashing the system, can't kind of exude a level of we should be trusted to fix this among the media and the fans and its spirals and, you know, it's it becomes a blame game because I think, you know, Hertz is on the hot seat as far as the Eagles fandom kind of deciding he's not a good enough guy to carry forward. And I think Syriani's on the hot seat as if they don't want to play off game this year, he's probably gone. My crazy. I don't know that it's crazy. I think it'd be crazy in other places, but Man, we've seen it in, we've seen it. Peter some got lasted how long after he, yeah, it was, I wonder he lasts after he won a new role. It's crazy. It was only a couple of years in the really. What if we, and that's what I'm saying, like in another situation with a different ownership group? I like the owners in Philly too. It's mostly just that they are, they have to deal with a psycho fanbase and, and I think he, I think everybody rightfully looks at what Howie Roseman has done as far as roster construction and this like pretty damn impressed. Like what else can he do? I mean, like realistically, if this is not working, one of the things to do is to try another head coach. And I think that right away puts, puts Syriani on a bit of a hot seat. Yeah, no, I don't, I don't know that I want and birdie disagrees with the scheme. I don't want Hertz under center. No, I mean, he's a shotgun type quarterback, at least, you know, shotgun pistol, all that more, you know, more RPO stuff, more, yeah, you don't want to change someone that deep in their career, definitely, but you do think you do though. You do need, you do need to do it differently than last year. I honestly think Hertz is going to have to do some self-reflection and figure out areas of his game that he wants to grow and improve or he is closer to the end than any of us realize. But I definitely think you can do that, you know, if someone's a more of a shotgun quarterback, that's the mean they can never be under center. You don't want to do too much around peg square hole, but early downs, more of a hey, this is a package we use, more early downs and shots off of play action to say, Juan, because you're still going to get like a couple hundred carries. It's definitely, I don't know, it feels like despite winning the Super Bowl two years ago, different types of quarterbacks would have been even more successful having a running back if they're disposal like that. And they just really made it work because the offensive line was so good. The better cuter, yeah, they have Tana McKee, birdie, why don't, let's just put Tana McKee in and they drafted another quarterback too. We'll get to. There's one other important coaching change. You got to ridden now. We mentioned him yesterday, he's in Dallas. Is that the one they? No, no, no, they did the Dallas's DC, I think, came from here. The offensive line coach is who? Oh, sure, sure, sure. The offensive line should be a strength. I have more questions if you do. We'll get to that. Chris Cuppert is taking over from the quote unquote legendary Jeff Stowland. We got a lot of examples of history of people taking over for legendary coaches and roles and everything's just smooth as can be. Not in football. Not in football. We don't. I think this could be a big deal. It'll be interesting to me because they did such a damn decent job of getting Kelsey's replacement ready for several years where I don't know how much they think if they knew, I guess I haven't, I didn't follow how how planned this, you know, this was. But if they, you know, if they had someone job shadowing him for a couple of years, like they did with Kelsey for the center position, you know, that seemed like they've done a good job of replacing people. Obviously, that was a player, a conveyor to a coach. I don't know. We'll see. I think, yeah, and this is a good point by Patrick. This is took the words right out of my mouth. They aren't super old in the middle, but it's not like you're starting rookies up there. You have a a group that, and I know they didn't play a ton of games together as a five-some last year because of injuries, but it's a group that's familiar with each other. You have a couple of very experienced players on it. Hopefully, there's some continuity, but I'm, I have, I'm chipping away at the offensive line number compared to where I've been the last couple of years. And that's definitely one of the things that's going to have to take into consideration. One of the reasons I don't think it's going to be a smooth transition, despite your point about the age. This was not a, he learned on the job as a young and upcoming protege, so to speak. Last three years, he was the Minnesota Vikings offensive line coach before that. He spent some time in Denver. I got to put my hand in my hand. My theory, my theory gets shot. We should have shot it down sooner before he let me go out of this. Well, I needed to confirm that because I wanted to make sure he didn't even, he didn't even have like one year in a building. So he is stepping into this role. And honestly, when you take over for a legend, a lot of times, there's a little bit of pressure to put your fingerprints on it. So, you know, hey, this could absolutely, no pressure, bud. This could absolutely go a different way than we have normally seen because, you know, it is an older group. There is injury risk. There may be some things that, you know, he is working with a new offensive coordinator who may be asking him to do different things like, you know, there's, you know, there's, there's potential for disruption in what has been sort of the other key parts of this offense. Now, those are most of my concerns with the Eagles. This offense might be bottom five. It could get like the trap door could open hurts could mightily struggle Manion could not work out the offensive line could get hurt and Cup or can't coach up the replacements like this offense could be could it could have a lower floor than I think the market is respected This defense does not They are going to be very very very good And yeah Go ahead and let's get into the other changes before we get too deep into that because we're in part ratings I think obviously the bigger ones we have discussed the AJ Brown trade To New England for some first round picks and 20 first round pick in 28 that sounds like a million years from now It's crazy off time flies And a 27 fifth Jonathan Grinard a nice piece Coming from boy talk about Getting to work with some pretty good DCs this guy yeah, he went from he went from Houston to Minnesota to Great area of Philly here. He's he's never had a bad coach lucky Jonathan Grinard. He was great Tank big speed Change of pace early downs. Maybe when he gets some stuff Kicker turn option What's it time to be in wicks? Do we recounting him on uh? Yeah, yeah, he's a fine. He's a fine guy. He was fine Yeah, he's a fine player. I would he's nice. You can do a lot worse For death 11 touchdowns for the last three seasons and sand a one-year deal He you know he helps fill in backfill there and then free Those guys that the advanced stats absolutely fucking love but then he never really produced for Green Bay for some reason They had too many you know they had nine wide receiver two's that was an issue He can create separation. He's great at the point of the catch But for whatever reason like it self felt like he never really got with the program in Green Bay Which is a little bit of a concern that said hey, you know the Green Bay Quarterbacks coach Maybe made a case. Hey, we gotta go get this guy. Maybe he works Uh, and as you mentioned the defense should be fine Added reek willing to an already decent secondary that It's pretty good players back there Hollywood Browns on this team I'll say that I guess maybe still has some vertical say he's only 29. I thought he was all there. He's got some outside speed I can never say this guy's name the edge from Atlanta Uh And the kitty sure Arnold and kitty rotational pass rush piece everyone's wrote everyone's a rotational pass rush piece Epin asa solid rotational pass rotational piece. Yeah, Jonathan Jones was not is not going to make the team I don't think I don't know why they signed him He's been around for a while too, but yeah, they don't need that much. I don't think they need depth. That was a weird one Elijah Moore Maybe maybe makes team. I don't I don't know I'm not sure Elijah Moore and Hollywood Brown make the team I think they might have to keep to some of the younger guys see if they can develop them because McCutman my Kyler Moment is going to step in and have a pretty big role and I think they are thinking Devonte Don Tavian wicks is going to be important for them. So um not uh Yeah, I mean it was a pretty typical I felt to me like a pretty typical how we offseason of Lot of really solid decisions and yeah, even AJ Brown thing. I guess who's thing man even like getting a blanket show Was AJ Brown was it was it a you had to choose one of the two between her and some brown I don't it's not like they didn't want to find any brown I mean what were what did they spend in the offseason outside of you know they they did a bunch of little here and there for the agent stuff But like the the req will in contracts like 15 million they They got rid of the Kobe D and it was kind of expensive I think um blanket ship was making money The what was there like offseason signings. I don't want to get deep into cap stuff but like resigning Dallas gottered Yeah, I don't have it. I don't know. I think it was always just Kind of a fit and Hey, there's a super big market for this guy if we can get something good. Let's just take it and we can back so So in there they they decided to sell high on AJ Brown. It does feel that way to me I don't know maybe somebody who follows the Philly uh news cycle a little closer has more insight It doesn't matter either way he's gone. He will not play for this team this year They're also making a bet that Tevantay Smith can step into that big a bigger role What's your opinion on that? He's little He's still kind of little But I mean he's very good and I mean getting to the draft class they obviously felt like this was going to happen because with the first run pick they used Yeah, they had a macaille women fall in their lap. He was expecting a top 13 He was yeah 20th. I believe their pick was so Really good slot guy Instead of being on your super bowl rival Rams he's on the equals It's a big and delta. A lot of people did uh mock him to the Rams didn't they You also found your hopefully Dallas got it replacement someday you drafted a pretty good tight end in the second round. Me like stowers stowers Don't watch college football. Don't know how to say a bunch of these names because for the life of me I've read it a hundred times Just never heard him but I didn't watch any Vanderbilt games this week this year So sorry converted former quarterback um, and then the rest of it was You know depth stuff they got a developmental swing tackle in the third round in Markelle bell As I mentioned they added a quarterback, which was always fun left-handed dual threat Oh, is he North Dakota? I'm trying to think yeah North Dakota state So we've played this game before sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't but North Dakota state Almost really good quarterback school um He was he was good, but it's nefty-s You know school but whatnot Tanner McKee is still in the roster and then Depth guard depth safety depth defensive tackle depth edge for Round six and seven So you know most of it comes down to getting lemon and getting the tight end and It's still the some of the parts you drafted lemon you brought in this Stowers you go get A couple of fighter sievers maybe Maybe Elijah Moore has something to give maybe Hollywood Brown has something you have that David Wicks certainly does But the some of the parts doesn't you know it doesn't add up to an h a Brown so likely a little step back there in the skill position spot and obviously the The plan likely to not have to run sick. Oh, do you have like 350 400 carries? I don't know Just you know Two years ago Yeah, it was it was a lot You do have to taper you do have to taper that back and find someone a good change of base guy. He had 330 touches last year Quackbra Quite a bit um, I don't know any other thoughts on changes to to to to to Changes uh, no, I just thought I was interesting that they're draft focused entirely on the offensive side of the ball Yeah, they didn't take a defensive player until the seventh round they have a talented and they have a talented and mature defense And they have a young and lots of questions offense right now Which is interesting for a team although rated this highly a fun one and I also have to give it a little bit of credence when it's the Eagles And they drafted edge piece at 252 but apparently He led college football and total pressures over the past three years At new Mexico It's kind of like the hey this kid's really good. He played at Marshall. How do you feel about him? I still bet him for a few years at some point didn't I But they do always just reload at defensive lands. We'll see um, I mentioned glyconship in Houston Chahann Dotson in Atlanta. AJ Dylan was on this team last year Was he Maybe I don't know. I haven't written Yeah, you're gonna look at AJ Dylan. Where is your career taking you? He's in Carolina Feel like he might have been on this team last year He was a Philadelphia Eagle he appeared in seven games. He's no longer what? Was he filled with his whole back? I was gonna say I wrote it down like they lost AJ Dylan. I don't think I screwed that up too bad Huh I don't remember I know that one I remember He had a few injuries and I think it was just hey we're let new ock Yeah, I mean I actually they got born they got drafted. You had Campbell such as life Yeah, I can't keep all Yeah, Bonnie Campbell are I would say I would say they're both great players At least good if not great player can't Campbell to me is trending as one of the better young Landbackers. I'm excited to see how he plays this year Bond I think maybe peaked two years ago. We'll see Yeah, it's a it was again typical. It felt like a correct good offseason for these guys I I think how he is continuing to manage as good as any manager and in the NFL and the one kind of question mark is, I don't know, it felt like could have moved on from Siriany last year if you wanted to, but maybe the proximity to winning Super Bowl was too close and they just wanted to get Siriany another year. - Still is, I don't know man. - It's like 18 months man. - What is Super Bowl? - What's his value add besides accepting the push pushes a plus UV thing. - I think you get, I think. - Going for a fourth round. - If you lose Nick, I think you lose Dom. - Oh. - Big Dom. - Oh. - Perhaps that's driving him right. Power numbers. Where do you start? Special teams? - Yeah, of course. What do you got there? - I was a little lower than you. - No, I want to spend some serious time on special teams as we often do. I only had a four and you had a six. Defend your six. - I give it an after I'm kidding. I just, I get, I'm using like, I'm using a blend. - Jake Kelly used to be good. Maybe. - Yeah, Jake Kelly is still a big guy. - You know why they, you know why they, the six Andy? They're kick blocking. - That's kick butt. - That's maybe, so that's made my leap again. I'm using, I'm using Shads TVOA. I'm using last year's CPA and making sure that it's still the same players. - The way we did this last year, I just listened to your numbers and changed them when you said it. 'Cause I honestly don't know. - Kick offs were a clear positive, according to them. - I only have an opinion on one special teams number on the entire 32 and we'll get there eventually. Anyway. - That would be fun. - All right, quarterback, let's go backwards. Let's start. Start at the bottom. - All right, this is again, phenomenally, phenomenally tough. Because I think that Jalen Hartz is on the decline. I look at his EPA play numbers over the last three years and it tells me that this is a guy that should still be in this like 70th percentile range despite trending down. Three years ago, 0.259. Last, I'm sorry, three years ago, 2.59, two years ago, 2.44 last year, 2.09. When you break down where those came from, the portion that came directly from having a J Brown as a deep threat is so fucking big. It's huge. And now you gotta figure out how to play differently. Change your game, is he capable of that? These are all, this is all what we're gonna learn about. Jalen Hartz throughout the course of this year. I am starting with a 7.1 for him. And I have this one circled and noted as he prepared to go down. - Yeah, I kind of started lower than, well, I am lower now, I'm at 6.5. It's still, so 6.5 still puts you in the upper third of starting quarterbacks. I want to say that, not everyone can be at 9.5. You gotta be pretty damn good to have a, it's right in that press cat tier. - Sure. - Just below some of the really, really good ones. And he's still a running threat. And I've, I've tried to figure out how I want a grade running quarterbacks. And I think I almost need to start putting it in my skill position grades and separating it from passing. - Interesting. - Because I think it's almost like, hey, you're just, I know. - It's a skill that helps your passing. - I know, but it helps me. - Exactly, that's my pushback against myself. Like it helps your passing when you're running threats. - And honestly, this is a quarterback OC combine number, which to me means that like if you have that element to your game that just makes that system so much more versatile and powerful, I think. - And that's the other reason I'm a little low as just them. It's an OC we've never seen call plays. So, you know, I looked at as a tempted, passing efficiency, I looked at the PFF stuff, I looked at the, you know, EPA, I looked at everything and kind of tried to scheme out what changed last year that wasn't just the Tulo, was it something he did? - It's very hard to success in anything else. So, little lower than you, 6.6 for me. - Okay, let me ask you, let me ask you, are you gonna have them above or below Sam Darnel? - I'm not telling you. - Come on, you got to have a guess. Got check, even if you haven't decided on you what your Sam Darnel number is. - He's probably gonna be, it's probably gonna be going to be very close. - Yeah, that's why I asked you that. - Like Sam Darnel's probably in that same deck range, right? - Same deck. - He's not, he's not a lead. - Sam, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Herbert? - I have got a little higher than that. I think I probably have got fired in that. - I have all those guys higher. I have every one we named right now higher than Hertz. - Seattle, all right, I'll just tell you Sam Darnel's 6.9. - So you're higher? - I'm higher on Sam Darnel. - Yeah. - Some of that is OC number driving. - So, well, Seattle, we don't know anything about him, either do we? - I think it'll be fine. - Okay. - All right. So I think the point I was trying to make by asking the guy I'm comparing. - No, that's okay, that's why Sam's not a 7. - Oh, I see, I see. - But I do kind of think he'll be okay. - So what reason I was kind of laying in out that way is like right now we are in a very, very good place in the NFL as far as quarterback play goes. - My numbers are based on sort of a very much longer time window of quality of quarterback play. And I have, my average number is quite high compared to kind of the long-term average. I think we're in a good place. I think Hertz is squarely below a lot of the guys that would be considered second tier. And I think as I sit here and look at that number, I'm prepared to reduce it based on getting information that tells us how is he adapting to the new system he's in, how is he adapting to life after Asia-Gram? - This is a fragile one because you turn this down and all of a sudden it's only the defense propping up the Eagles as a positive team. - Yeah. - Skill group, where'd you land without AJ? - 5.0. - I thought you come out. I thought I was gonna be high when I like to look at my numbers before I look at yours and see where I'm in gas. And I felt like, and I like to guess where I'm gonna be high. And I'm at a 4.8 year. - Okay, I'm totally defensible. - Again, you know, I try to figure out the past run ratio. I try to do a little bit of who's getting what touches. - Yeah. - And it was just like, hey, it was a 125 target number one receiver that just isn't on the steam anymore. Devon to Smith is very good. He had similar target share last year. I think he was over 120, but the depth is real sketch after that because McKayleman could be very good. We've seen very good college wide receivers come in and just not get it at a pro level. And I don't know enough about that transition to really make a good assertion on that. I'll assume he's gonna be fine, maybe good, maybe average, but all my grades for everything beyond that is tough. And even our old tight end, he's getting old. He's a little more injury prone. The sake one thing is he's getting a little older. He's getting a little more-- - He turns, sake one barkley turns 30 years old in February. - Lot of miles on that right now. - I almost feel like I'm being generous having him as my expected RB7. - And I do wonder what the game plan is because it's one of those where you wonder if, like the fantasy people are just pissed because he's got like 13 carries in week one and they win or something, doesn't matter. And the other running back, Binksby gets like seven or eight, nine, 10, maybe. And then you realize like, oh, this team feels like they can win playoff games. And they don't need him coming into the playoffs with 350 carries. They need him coming into the playoffs like 250. That would be a lot, lot better for them if he were fully healthy and maybe a little fresher come playoff time. But at the same time, he's still gonna win enough games to get there. So I'm interested to see what the split looks like there. But I'm still-- - You know when I remember, say, Quan Barkley looking pretty fresh, Andy. Playoff's last year. He was lively. - He's still nice. - He was lively. - He's very, he's very tall. - But you know what? - It didn't matter because they were at a deficit and Hertz had to throw him back into the game and he couldn't do it. - Remember when he jumped backwards over that game though? - Yeah, that was great. The jag guy. All right, man. I think we're right. League average. Offensive line for me. This one is a great match. - I think it's just a great match. - I'm at a 7.4. And I am hardly accounting for the change in leadership. - I, I'm at a 6.2 and I didn't really, I didn't really lead on that. - What? - I know, it's tough because if you take last year's numbers, I ran it just for the last year's numbers and it was like a five. I'm like, oh no, what? And it's because like they didn't, you can't use last year's numbers a lot. Because what they did, what's your projection? Myelata, Dickerson. - I think this is gonna be the fourth best unit. four for four degrees by the way they have been as the fourth best unit. Most of the offensive line heart owe analysts are kind of in that one to two range. Why are you in like you're on like the fringes of the top 10 what's going on? I know it I again I had to raise this this numbers come up because it's like hey well a lot of last year's numbers that I was trying to use were just garbage but they are they are incredibly thin after a very good starting line up. That's true. It took one injury last year it wasn't some cluster injury event which eventually we had multiple guys out then it got horrible they were essentially like league bottom at some of the metrics we used to judge offensive lines but it took one injury in like week five and suddenly they fell off they fell off the face of the earth on some of the metrics that mattered and their run blocking got really bad I think it was yeah Dickerson week five ankle Jurgen's week seven against Minnesota and a couple of their time Lane Jamsen he had a Liz Frank an ankle a singer like 500ish snaps lesser day for 31. How what's his age? He's a four four hundred and forty nine snaps last year 10 appearances out of a possible 18 with the play that's that spooky like if you have to play Fred Johnson at tackle he's the low league average they played Bret Toth Matt prior they played a rookie Drew Kendall a lot of it was just it's it's a depth issue for me and the fact that all of these guys have gotten hurt or or are old or in the case of you know a couple of them are just a little younger so I'm I'm very much in the low end I looked at this and this is the one I probably do need to just say Andy you're leaning too hard into the future and for week one that's what we're supposed to be doing now I know I'm no and it's like for week one my number's fucked like I should I think I am going to adjust this more I looked at it it's like how am I how am I justifying some of this so I mean your point of the aging thing is real Lane Johnson is 36 I didn't realize he was that old and coming off a loose frank entry I know he's his you know his grading slipped Dickerson's grades actually I was going to push back on the grading slip thing I had Lane Johnson as a top three pass blocking tackle in his snaps and I had him as a top 15 run blocker I have my lotta as a top three before you like top one top yeah of course yeah I think his 20 24 so high it's like he's on a downward trend for me yeah that's fair the about the interior guys maybe maybe I need to come up to like a 6.8 7. Yeah you're not you're you're not you're not outrageous this is another one like the quarterback in the offensive line I have both of them circled and you know I'm I'm circling my numbers this year as a tracking mechanism I'm color bordering them as a keep an eye on this prepare to go down keep an eye on this prepare to go up I love that both of those two both of those two are are ones that I'm like absolutely going to interrogate after we got a couple weeks of data here's the thing here's a real quick thing because we're we're almost running down we are running down I almost need to start to look at this in two ways I need to build a set of numbers for power ratings for I'm going to put a team on the field for the next game and I need to rate them against their opponent next week okay and then I need to build a different set of power numbers built on fragility and depth and what ifs and stuff like that and that needs to be more of a trying to find value in long shot futures sure sure and I think I'm blending that too much and I think that's why I'm fucking this up that's okay I don't I don't think we made this may age well I wouldn't yeah especially when I was out on the kicker was the creepy kicker what the fuck was that guys I'm gonna I'm gonna hold on to that forever the opera singer my hearty biking you know a man dies twice it's when he dies and the last time someone others his name that's and maybe we shouldn't say his name anymore because he might be a sex best my offense is rated at a flat six okay I'm at six points basically six point six five so sixty seven percentile it's a top ten offense on paper for me right now and I'm I don't feel great about it defensive side of the ball is much trickier because I feel like these are all numbers that I am going to evaluate and potentially go up I also expect that throughout the balance of the season of big fan geodefense is going to be better in November and December and January than it is in September and October so expecting an arc of improvement out of this defense so starting a little bit on the lower side I went five point seven with the runstop my past rush is only a four point nine and my coverage is six point seven a lot of guys I like a lot of potential for step forward here coverage could be end up being the best in in the entire NFL and I will be surprised but it looks like we're not all that far apart you're not I'm I'm higher on past rush than you and then a little bit lower on coverage not by much and then our first match I believe with the year runstop both at fifty seventh percentile above average some of it is the Jonathan Gernard thing I think that's really useful in a in a fan geodefense some of it is just sack bond probably can even get better upfront and assist what's happening there you added the guy from Atlanta whose name I don't do ebikeady ebikeady I mean it was a it was a defense that finished like fifth in past defense TVOA last year and that was that was the this was like oh they lost mountain Williams is this is there going to be problems up front are we going to backfill that and I don't know they just keep finding guys that work out in the for at all three levels of the defense so I'm I'm going to be higher even though the the sack total which isn't I was best indicator of a good past defense it's kind of ordinary in the middle but pressure was good the past defense rankings were good and everything I else I used obviously created out nice and so six point one for me on that and then as we mentioned runstop we were both at five point seven you got some top tier defensive tackles in the middle you got sack bond you got geod Campbell in the second level lose pretty damn decent and again it was like hey we lost Milton Williams how's the middle of this defense going to look and it was pretty damn fine so I think we'll be fine there and then you were a little higher on coverage than me love Mitchell love to Jean love Rick Wolland he was you know he was like a starter on a Super Bowl team he was your third guy in that secondary and I think it's probably a good in getting better coverage group but this what's the safety mcuba yeah I like him he's fine he's fine I think that's where I'm fine words so it's like you know the safety group is it's fine so just a fine floor there yeah all right defense rear right now is that the defense from here right now is eighth but it's well it's kind of only because there are seven really really fucking good defenses in a bell right now I cannot make a case to put them any higher than eight even though Vic van geo deserves all the respect in the world there are some just rock solid units that we're gonna have to do yeah sorry is it just Houston Denver Seattle Houston Seattle Denver Rams Viking those the those are your top five period lion's if that's not if that's not the if that's not the top five I'm going to be pretty surprised but would you yeah yeah no I'm I mean it's funny I just sorted and I have them eighth it's close but I have them tied well I have a tie for eighth between two teams that both reside in the same state because I have a little higher on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense and I think the market is but yeah the Browns obviously took a step back with one player but still have some players they can they can get in this mix the lions are weird underrate but there's kind of a mess there right below Philly that I would have to sort out too that's interesting I have a lot of work to do to finalize my other defensive numbers besides the NFC so far but I there's there's no world around that Rams Texans Broncos Seahawks Seahawks thank you I don't know why I was like it and then Vikings like that's that's that's almost certainly that's almost certainly my top five all right little little schedule talk before we bet on this team see well again favorite a lot yeah there is a decent amount of prime time games they play on Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve they play in London against the Jags they play a Monday night game in week three that's wait till week three to get a prime time game a couple more Monday nights get the Monday and Dallas versus Dallas double do two weeks in early in division rivals in prime time. And like I mentioned Dallas both games are prime time. And then a Sunday night late game week 17 at the team that busted the out of the playoffs last year, the Niners. Soft open kind of I suppose depends how you feel about their chances versus the Bears, but softish. It's kind of a tough one at the end. I know there's going to be a lot of different opinions on how Indie plays, but Indie has a high ceiling, I think. And if they're good, that's a motherfucker of a stretch there with Indie Seattle Houston Niners. And then if you know, hopefully you're playing for something against the Giants. There's some give me say suppose Arizona's on the schedule. You have the Giants in Washington at home. Those are games you have to win. Same thing with Tennessee and Carolina, but it's a I don't know middle of the pack schedule I suppose. I think actually this is the easiest schedule of the NFC East teams in terms of strength of opponent, but it is offset by the fact that you got to play four teams coming off their rise. And and actually like the sequence of fly to London to play the Jigs come home and play the Panthers off thereby is kind of diabolical. Hey, go log 10,000 frequent fire miles and then play a rest of team at home. That pink is that pink is galling so anyone who's seen the pink is when basically it has to be somebody coming off their buy because they have a 60 rest advantage. And you get one, but everybody, well not everybody, some of them get neutered. The four is a lot. I feel like we complain when someone has to do this three times twice in a row, three and four weeks is not great, especially when the only other game split in there is a tough one versus Dallas. Yeah, and it's three and four weeks after traveling internationally. You know, when I feel like your offensive line point is going to be really, really, really fun to victory lap is that stretch of games there, like that probably the giants game, honestly, like the offensive line is going to be beaten up. They're going to be gassed. And now they're going up against a good past rush, you know, Jacksonville might. Jacksonville, serviceable defense, Carolina some pieces Dallas definitely, I mean in the middle at least. There's some Dallas or Pittsburgh Dallas again, yeah, Indy Seattle Houston. That's the rough part to the Indy Seattle Houston. If your offense of wine is not 100% at that point in the year, which is the least likely time in the year for the other percent. Yeah, I'm pretty asking about it. Is there a buy point? If they're showing some life at the buy is at a buy point. Man, and some of that will come down to. You know, how's Dallas looking? How's Indy looking? It's used in Niners. Honestly, I gotta tell you, if that stretch of international travel and then playing a bunch of teams with extra rest, if that kind of undoes you a bit, even if you're winning. And. That's a good question. Seriani fired in season would be something. You have to have completely lost the locker room by the time you buy week. Is it just a. Fandria, you're the coach in. I don't know. Only obviously we're not there. Do you go? Cause can you name the special teams coach? No. Michael. Michael Clay. Oh, okay. No, I think there's a world where you're winning, but you're eating something stuff out. You're not covering against the teams. You're healthy favorites too. In the first nine weeks of the season. And there's serious pressure on everybody. Come to buy. But like, I also don't love the idea that you're in. You're playing on Thanksgiving in the most watched game of the entire season. You're playing then on. Saturday standalone before Christmas. You're playing on the third on Thursday night of Christmas Eve. That is going to be held heavily watched game. I'm going to be on Saturday night football after week 17. That's going to be a absolute. You know, all of the eyes in the world on you are like, you're getting get a lot of scrutiny in the back half of this season, which is why I think. Ultimately, this feels like the offense lands in the 20s. The defense is top 10. The Eagles are on the kind of fringes of winning the division again. And Syriani is probably gone if they underwhelm in that Saturday and that Saturday Christmas Eve Sunday night stretch. At the end of the season 15 16 17 if they lose those games. And the Eagles don't make plus, which I think is possible. Am I in that Eagles, Mr. Plouse press Sandy, am I in it? I think there's only one way I trend with this team in terms of. Rating them. I think I'm at the highest point of the season with them right now. Yeah, I don't I don't have to look where lemon sits for offensive or key of the year. Maybe just because somebody's got a fill of void and nature of horse of vacuum, but like, say, go on bark, Lee's, you know, top 10 for O P O I, I don't I think that ships kind of sailed for him getting that again. You know, we're not betting it hurts MVP or O P O I or anything. He just it's not the right kind of setup for him to put up those kind of gotty numbers. I don't know that there's some like player bet here. The Syriani first coach fired if it really goes down the aisle. I don't know about all that. Yeah, somebody else is going to get popped in season probably. Yeah, it does feel like it does feel like they have some sort of middleing season. And then they have to have a kind of see it. You know what, I'm going to put this into the universe. It's going to be like a bad. We just split ways. We parted ways. It's not a firing. He wants to go try to work somewhere else and, you know, he wasn't shitty enough for us to be like, yeah, we had to get rid of them. They won four games. If you win, you're hoping they don't win nine games. That's your worst because they're like, I kind of want to get rid of this guy. We weren't that bad. Again, you can do whatever you want because you owner managed team. Fuck it. How do you feel about a seven seed convincing loss on the road and Detroit in the two seven. That's that would help. So again, if you've gotten blown out in the playoffs, like losing by 30 in the playoffs, that's an easy one. Even with 10 11 wins. I think a playoff wild card blowout would be that be a good one for, you know, how we in the gang and the owners to take care of this. Interesting little point to that. If Dallas does win this division, but Philadelphia with a elite defense and a good enough offense wins 9, 10, 11, 12 games, whatever. And still ends up in a wild card spot. They play a road game to start the playoffs, which is what wild cards are forced to do. If you look at their schedule. They end the season. Why can't I get the names? Are we both clicking it? No, I wasn't. I couldn't get it. If you look at their schedule, their last two games are a cross country tip to San Francisco. And then a little jaunt up to New Jersey, but two road games. They could be on their third straight road game if they're a wild card team. And it could be like, it could be right back right back to Seattle or San Francisco. At the atl at LA. Yeah, at Detroit at Chicago could be kind of a shitty. At Minnesota at Detroit. At Dallas. At Chicago. Alright, man, I think at New Orleans, I'm not especially far off market here with these guys. Market has them in the three plus three range. I think if you're starting out with them at the plus three range, you're on sides. But this is one of those teams where I'm kind of hoping they win and cover early in the schedule. And then you can you can find an opportunity to bet against them as the attrition starts to hurt there. You don't know that we ever said our ratings out loud. I may plus 3.16. Drew is a plus 3.95. And would you say your market rating was here? Market market has them at 3.56. We're projecting. I mean, how many wins you projecting kind of right around the wind total? I'm. Yeah, my wind projection is 11.4 for them. I'm at a 10.1 market wind totals roughly 10.4 according to what I ran. I did something different with my wind total projections, but today's not the day to dive into it. Let's talk about it when we're talking about a studio team that we don't have content for sure. All right, let's call it on the Eagles. This is a fun one. The fund division. I don't know what division we're doing next week, but we'll do one. It will be back Monday. If he's. Okay, where's that start? Set start in Miami. New York. Yeah, fins jets. Fins jets. Pats. Pats. Yeah. Pats. Bill. Those are favored. For whatever reason. We back, yeah, we'll be back Monday with Miami and the New York Jets for those you the build a minus 160 to win the AFC East. Yikes. Super Bowl. Super Bowl hangover, do it the losing team, man. I guess who lost the Super Bowl last year? It was the chiefs. Two years. Chiefs. It was the chiefs. Yeah. And what happened to Patrick Beoms? Yeah, he tore his ACL. Yeah, Super Bowl hanging over guys. That's how that works. Real quick, since we did it, we got an hour. We stayed under. We stayed on topic. World Cup final. A Spain one, Argentina, and Nile in extra time. Yeah. France five, England, Nile. Third place match. Zero zero draw at halftime. I think I'm betting that. One one draw, final time. That's fun. Draw draw. Draw draw. The draw draw, double result. Double result. Draw draw. Draw draw. All right. Enjoy the World Cup finals. Argentina lifts the trophy. That'd be funny. I've been really, so many people are mad about that. Like, people are. Argentina two one with a goal in extra time. Everybody assumes it's going to be PK's. I find the music. But they get a goal. Messi, Golden Ball, Bapé, Golden Boots. Yeah, I'm all a young player. The tournament. Everyone I've seen in the back. He does look very young in that picture. He's a baby. Yeah. How are they letting him play? I don't know. Messi with long hair kills,