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Speaker 3Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch rushing deep left field. This is where the walkable. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasybaseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Speaker 4It was a weird year in the outfield. Lots of big injuries, but also a lot of big breakouts. We'll get into all of it. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball Today on Wednesday, November 11th. And we are reunited. I am Frank Sanfel, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it is our outfield recap part one. We'll look back at preseason ADP, the biggest bust and breakout, who finished top 12 at the position. Plus, we have some interesting baseball news to get to, so we'll work that in somewhere. We'll also get to first pitch. Quick little recap here. But we have to start with evil Scott White, who showed up today. And is sporting, we're all,
Speaker 5we, yeah, we all have black shirts on or Scott's. Your, yours might be like a dark, dark blue. It's black. Black. We're all wearing black shirts. We've all got facial hair. We all have facial hair. It's a real, it's a real different look today.
Speaker 6Scott, I love it. Let's go. Ah, don't get attached, Frank. Bizarro, Scott. It's already feeling kind of gross. I don't know how long it's going to last. But as of now, yes, I've gotten, I'm rocking a little bit of a goatee, which is all I'm capable of growing, really. It's pretty sparse on the cheeks, the growth. So went ahead and shaved that off. But yeah, you know, I figured it had been a while. See, what actually happened is I was off last week, some, some PTO and the whole family came down with the flu, which It seems to be how it goes pretty often. I, I haven't taken a six day, a sick day in like six years, but I've been sick in the past six years. It's just always when I'm off anyway. Um, so yeah, being sick, didn't, didn't feel much like shaving. And, and then when the time came to shave again, it's like, you know, haven't tried it out in a while. So we'll give it a whirl for a few.
Speaker 5You know where nobody ever gets the flu? Where's that? Mesa, Arizona. That's right. Is that right? Is that like some kind of flu-less paradise? It's like a, it's like a fountain. It's the, the air is so dry and the hen house is so delicious that you can't get, you can't get the flu there. It's silent. I
Speaker 6feel like you're making this up.
Speaker 5Next year, you're going to have to go and test it out for yourself.
Speaker 4Yeah. Although by the end of the trip, I kind of looked and felt like I had the flu.
Speaker 5I don't know if I've ever seen Frank in worse shape than Sunday around 11 AM after first pitch. Lots of fun. Lots of late nights. Your eyes had sunken back about six inches into your skull. I was done at that point.
Speaker 4I needed to teleport home, but man, that is, those are conversations for another day. We did have a lot of.
Speaker 5It's that, that trip back, that flight back. It just leaves the hole. You get to, your flight leaves at three, you land at 10. Just your whole day is gone.
Speaker 4And I'm not breaking any news here. Obviously it's extremely dry in Arizona. Two or three days there. My lips hurt so much. My lips hurt so bad. They become so chapped. No matter how much I put on them to, to, to remedy the situation, it always ends very poorly. So, uh, I, I, I'm, I'm really good at
Speaker 5drinking water, Frank. Well, that's the thing. I'm really good at drinking water at home. I've got this giant water bottle. And then when I'm not at home.
Speaker 6You're drinking things that dehydrate you, right?
Speaker 4Yeah, that, that did not help, obviously. Okay. We did have a lot of fun out at first pitch Arizona. Big thanks to Brent Hershey, Ray Murphy, everybody at Baseball HQ. They put on a great show every single year. We had a bunch of people tell Chris and I how much they enjoy the podcast. Obviously much appreciated. Always nice to hear that from the people. Uh, the usual question we received the most where Scott, I didn't have an answer, apparently growing a goatee. So that's very cool to come back to. We did a live working on his evil plans. We did a live podcast that is currently in the feed. It's on YouTube as well. So that was a lot of fun. The toughest players to rank for next season. We also got to talk to a lot of, uh, industry people and, and put together kind of a montage video. I think there was a lot of people that were like, Oh, I don't know. There was, I don't know, eight to 10 different analysts in there giving out way too early bold predictions. That is also up on YouTube. So we, we had some fun. We watched some baseball, went to the home run Derby. Ariel Cohen caught another baseball, uh, didn't tackle any kids this time, thankfully. Uh, but yeah, lots of fun. We got out to two games, big game from Ty Pete, who just is having a big AFL in general. He had a triple in that game. I think he had another hit, a stolen base. The second game we went to Jet Williams had a big game, two hits, a walk, a stolen base. Awesome diving catch in center field. So Ty Pete, I think is a little bit further out. I don't think we see him in 2027 unless maybe it's like a August, September type call up. But I mean, Jet Williams is a super utility guy. I, I think he could have some value for the Brewers as soon as next season. So we'll be interesting to see if he can carve out a role for himself.
Speaker 5Yeah. I mean, the thing about the Arizona fall league is one teams don't really send real pitching prospects out there. That's not a hundred percent true. Like Harleen Susanna is. He's a real pitching prospect, but he's out there as like a kind of extended rehab assignment kind of thing after he missed most of the season. But for the most part, it's not a very pitcher friendly environment. And then also it's in Arizona. The air is dry. It's, I don't know, 900 feet above sea level, I think roughly Phoenix. And I'm sure they're not using a humidor. So it's a very offense friendly environment. Plus, I don't know if you got this year. They're 20. They're going with, um, it's like an outfield shift ban, I think they're, they're, they're limiting how far outfielders can move in the Arizona fall league as a, you know, kind of pilot for the minors next year and potentially the majors in the long run. And so it's a very, very, very offense friendly environment in the fall league.
Speaker 6Yeah. I got to admit Jet Williams is a prospect. I don't have a lot of hope for anymore, but we'll, we'll see. We'll save that for another episode.
Speaker 4Yep. Uh, of course the, the first game we went to, it was supposed to be, you know, Dax Kilby versus Ty Pete. Dax Kilby wasn't in the lineup. So I was, uh, extremely upset about that. Didn't get a chance to see him while we were out there, but by all accounts, he's looked really good in the Arizona fall league. And I think Thanksgiving week, I'll just, I think I'm going to have a couple of guests on you. You guys take the week off, just do whatever you want. Um, but I think we're going to do like an Arizona fall league, just complete recap. I'll have the well, Sean, and we'll talk about that. Uh, so. So yeah, we'll, we'll get a little bit more into the AFL then, but let's get into the outfield. Obviously lots of players, lots of names to talk about here. And according to the Fangraphs player rater, we had one outfielder with 40 plus dollars. That was Pete Cromstrung. He was nearly a $50 player. We had five with 30 plus dollars, 12 provide 20 or more dollars. Last season in 2025, it was one with 40 plus, two with 30 plus, nine with 20 plus. And then if you look at CBS points leagues, it was actually the opposite. It was better in 2021. 25 than it was this past season. So it's interesting how it was different based on the format. Outfield was better in Roto in 2026, while it was better in points leagues in 2025. Overall, I think it's mostly in a pretty good place. You know, when I dug into both of your rankings, you get about 40 deep and I still feel pretty good about it. And then once you get outside that top 40, there's a mix of a lot of young names that are coming. That came up late in the season, whether it's a Walker Jenkins, Lazaro Montes, you know, young breakout ish type. And then mixed in with some veterans who have done it before. Ian Happ, Stephen Kwan, Brian Reynolds. So at first glance, I actually feel pretty good about the position. I don't know. Where are you guys at on outfield?
Speaker 6Yeah, that was my feeling, too, as I ranked it. Remember, the outfield was in a pretty dismal state three or four years ago, but it feels pretty strong. Again, not as strong as first base, but maybe the second strongest position. It felt a little worse as 2026 was playing out because there were. a number of high-end outfielders who greatly underperformed. And yet most of them, certainly the younger ones, we're expecting them to bounce back, which isn't to say all of them will, but that's true every year that the players you rank the highest at the position don't all perform up to it. So I don't think it's anything to overly stress about. And I agree in a three outfielder league, especially. I feel very good about it. Yeah, it's almost impossible not to come out of that draft feeling good about all of your outfielders.
Speaker 4Yeah. Taking a look back at preseason outfield ADP, according to Fantasy Pros, looking at the top 12, Aaron Judge, followed by Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, Jackson Churrio, Jordan Alvarez, Pete Crow Armstrong, James Wood, and Brent Rooker, who was still outfield eligible at the time. He no longer has that. He is U2. He's still only, and he's also on the mend from knee surgery. So we'll see how that plays out for him. According to the Fangraphs Playwriter, five of those finished in the top 12, which I think is pretty good considering all the injuries and busts and just how many outfielders there are. It's kind of an unpredictable position in that way. The biggest bust at the position, take your pick. There are lots of options. If you want to go the injury route, I think obviously Aaron Judge missing a large majority of the season. That did not work out very well. But if you want to look at guys who were mostly, healthy, Kyle Tucker was a first round pick and he finished 125th this past season. Ronald Acuna, yes, he missed some time, but when he played, he still wasn't great. He finished 141st. Jaron Duran was like a top 60 pick. He finished 190th. George Springer. Remember this time last year, we didn't really know what to do with George Springer. He was a top 100 pick. He finished outside the top 300. So take your pick, guys.
Speaker 6And he won't be an outfielder next year. Presuming he's an MLB player next year, which I think is whether or not he retires.
Speaker 5I will say, Tucker is a tough one because he is a, well, last year, I guess, he was probably a better points league player than a Roto League player. But if you had him in a points league, it almost certainly felt worse than if you had him in a Roto League because the only time Kyle Tucker was actually good last season was after you were eliminated in a points league. Or a head-to-head. Any kind of head-to-head league, probably. It's possible. I know in Tout Wars, I was technically still alive when Kyle Tucker started to turn his season around. And I remember because I benched him in the playoffs of that league and he had a really good week and I might have won if I had started him. But there was no reason to think I should have started him at that point. It was a pretty miserable season up until the final, what, 25 games or so. Really good September. Pretty good postseason. But really rough first 137 or so games for Kyle Tucker, unfortunately.
Speaker 4And basically every game he played at home was terrible too. So it was, do you just pick and choose when you play him? Do you play him in weeks where they're just on the road the whole time? It was a 592 OPS at home for Kyle Tucker, 833 on the road. If he can even those splits out and he's, you know, an OPS over 800 at home again, then he's pretty much just back to being Kyle Tucker,
Speaker 5which. And I think that's what we're all.
Speaker 4And OPS being that bad at home feels pretty fluky.
Speaker 6Well, and I think if you combine that with other data points for Kyle Tucker in 2026, it's pretty easy to create the narrative that guy signs a monster historic contract and feels pressure to live up to it. You'd feel more of that pressure at home. One of the ways I think it was. It was most visible is he expanded the zone. He chased a lot more. And that led to him rolling over on pitches pretty often. And he did some work to shore up his swing late in the season. And we saw it carry over to September. September, Kyle Tucker hit 262 with six home runs and an 889 OPS, which isn't the best we've ever seen from Kyle Tucker, but it's much closer to what people expected coming in. And it continued into the playoffs, which I think was a good sign. So, you know, I think Kyle Tucker was the biggest bust at this position in 2026. And I was very optimistic about him going to the Dodgers. So that's not something I like admitting. But I'm going to be pretty high on him again next year, I think, at least relative to the consensus. My initial outfield rankings have Kyle Tucker 16th, which is, of course, the lowest he's been since he took over as an everyday player in Houston years ago. But it's still pretty high overall. 16th, that's a high in number two outfielder.
Speaker 5I believe you might be lower than him than the consensus, though. Yeah. The early ADP. I mean, look, we are very, very small sample size. 26 finished drafts. I think, Frank, no, you didn't finish yours, right? No, only the first half of the draft. Yeah, there were a handful of drafts this weekend as well that aren't done yet. Only 26 drafts. He is outfielder 14. So ahead of Michael Harris, Randy Rosarito, Reina, Carson Bench, Bryce Harper, Jack Caglione, although I will say Jack Caglione is going to be higher than outfield 19 by the time the spring rolls around. I feel very confident in that. That is basically everyone's favorite breakout pick at the position.
Speaker 6Yeah. It looks like Harper, Bryce Harper, since he's going to be outfield eligible next year, and Randy Rosarito are the two I have ranked ahead of Tucker that early ADP does not. And Rosarito especially surprises me because, I don't know, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Obviously, he's coming off the best year he's ever had. I think we were all wondering if it was going to get him pushed into second, third round territory. But early drafters, at least on NFBC, taking Tucker a little bit ahead of him. It is early. Not that a sample of 26 drafts that we're drawing this from I think is too small. I don't think it's too small to see consensus forming in ADP. But it's just early in the sense that over the next several months, a lot more voices are going to weigh in, and the group think is going to shift on players. We see it all the time. Yeah, absolutely. So I think saying I'm 16th on Kyle Tucker early ADP is 14th means we're basically in lockstep.
Speaker 4And if we combine that with the Steamer projection, Scott, you basically split the difference because Steamer has Kyle Tucker as the 18th projected outfielder. Heading into next season. We did our toughest players to rank podcast live out of first pitch. And we spoke about Tucker and Gunnar Henderson back to back. And so we just had people raise their hands like, who would you rather draft as a bounce back? They have similar ADPs like in that 50 to 60 range. And almost everybody raised their hands for Tucker versus Gunnar Henderson. Just more confidence straight up in Kyle Tucker.
Speaker 5Even though Henderson is about 12 picks higher right now. Yeah. For whatever that's worth.
Speaker 4But Kyle Tucker was just better more recently. You know, the year before he was almost an 850 OPS bat. And Gunnar Henderson is just kind of like nosediving right now. So definitely still could bounce back. He's young enough to do that. But yeah, obviously Gunnar is a pretty interesting name for next season as well. Biggest breakout at the position. There are obviously many options. I would bring up two players in particular, and they are on complete different ends of the ADP spectrum from last year. Pete Crow Armstrong, his ADP was 30th, but he finished far and away the best player in fantasy. So I would bring up two players in particular, and I would call that a breakout. And then Jordan Walker's ADP was outside the top 350. He finished 12th overall. So there are obviously many other options, but I think those two represented pretty well.
Speaker 5Do we want to get into Walker now?
Speaker 4I have him like later on. He finished inside the top 12, so we could dive deeper there. And then the sleeper at the position. This is usually the one nobody saw coming, or that's how I've been phrasing it. But I think most people kind of liked him. You just didn't really know what to expect. Jake McCarthy going over to Colorado, and getting an opportunity to play every day. He came through, man. He was finished as a top 12 outfielder. He was 28th overall. ADP outside the top 400 before the season, and likely picked up as a free agent in a lot of leagues early on too. So very, very nice sleeper slash breakout season there for Jake McCarthy as well. With a shout out to Jake Bowers, Cody Clemens, and Zach Geloff, who we spoke about on other podcasts. Reminder, lots of content that we did this weekend, so make sure to check all of that out. Again, toughest players to rank first pitch, and then way too early, bold predictions, that is up on our YouTube channel. Let's take our first break, and when we return, some quick news and notes, and then into the top 12 at outfield right after this.
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Speaker 4For spring training, the early ADP is right around 20, just after Jose Ramirez and Ronald Acuna, ahead of Connor Griffin, Sal Stewart, and Julio Rodriguez. I think with this news, maybe Carroll will drop down a little bit, but I can't really see him falling out of that 2-3 round range.
Speaker 5It is worth noting, and we talked about this on the podcast we did at FPAS, but we're not going to get any updates on these guys. Yeah. Like any, any, like, is the, oh boy, Roman Anthony, do we have him? Yeah, he's in the notes. Okay, he's in there, and that one I'll just point out, he's going to be re-evaluated in a few weeks, but it's like, the lockout starts, what, December 4th? December 2nd? December, I think December 2nd, yeah. December 2nd at 11.59 p.m.? If we don't get an update on Roman Anthony by December 2nd, we are not going to get an update on Roman Anthony until, I mean, maybe his agent gives an update, but he probably won't, so we probably won't get a Roman Anthony update until whenever the lockout ends and players report to spring training, so that is something to keep an eye out with any player with injury question marks over the offseason is we aren't going to know who suffers setbacks or who has that, you know, Shane Bieber was the comp I made, but, you know, remember we got that update like mid-December last year, Shane Bieber wasn't recovering from the end of the season as well as they hoped. We're not going to get that this year, so there's going to come a point when players report for spring training where we're just going to get a ton of surprises, and hopefully it's good news for someone like Corbin Carroll because this is a relatively minor surgery, but if there is some kind of setback, we aren't going to find out about it.
Speaker 6I, just a silver lining though, there's usually that deluge of, deluge, I said the word weird, there's usually that deluge of information when players start reporting to spring training. I think it's pretty rare we get injury updates during the winter, but it's, you know, it does happen sometimes. And specifically with Carroll, surgery to remove loose bodies from the elbow, this is not the kind of injury I worry about with a hitter. Agreed. Especially with this long to recover. So I don't think it should impact his draft stock at all personally, unless obviously we get into spring training, we're seeing some effects of it, but I don't expect that.
Speaker 4An injury like that does affect the starting pitcher though. And we just learned that Max Freed had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow, and he is expected to start a throwing program in December and be ready for spring training. But again, this is one where we will not have an update on Max Freed, how his throwing is going, how he's feeling and everything. So whenever spring training starts up, whenever, you know, this lockout is ended, I guess we'll get an update on Max Freed then. Scott, you have Max. Max Freed at SP20. Chris, you have him at SP26. Do you guys plan to lower Max Freed at all?
Speaker 6I'll say not, not right now. No, I mean, I, it's more worrisome for a pitcher, but I still think it's better to have the surgery than to keep pitching through the bone spurs generally. And it normally doesn't come as a problem. And this far out, you know, having it done at the start of the off season, I would not expect. I don't expect any delays for his availability in spring training. So, you know, if something new comes out, which probably won't happen until whenever they report, as Chris was saying, then sure, I'll adjust at that point. But right now I feel pretty, I've, I'm pretty optimistic about Max Freed for next year.
Speaker 5So I do want to see if there's a distinction between, because remember Carlos Rodon had bone spur surgery about the same time. Actually, it was at least announced, earlier last year, but I don't know if it was, you know, the, the, the story for Rodon was he would not throw for eight weeks as, as of mid October was when they announced it. And then he was going to start throwing in December. Yeah, he didn't pitch until he didn't make his MLB debut last year until May 10th. So that's the one thing I wonder, maybe Freed's is just less severe. The timeline certainly that we've been given seems to indicate that, but I don't think
Speaker 6it was expected for Rodon either, right? It just, it was just, he didn't recover very well.
Speaker 5Yeah. So that's the thing we don't, which can happen. That's the thing we don't know. And unfortunately won't get any updates on probably.
Speaker 4I think Rodon also had a hamstring injury while he was rehabbing. That kind of set it back a little bit. But he also came back and then went on the aisle with a flexor strain later in the season. So, I mean, it could lead to re-injury. Obviously Freed has been dealing with some kind of strain, stress fracture, stress reaction in his elbow the past couple of years. You know, he had the flexor strain a couple of years ago as well. So he's been dealing with stuff.
Speaker 6It was a bone bruise, I think.
Speaker 5Yeah, bone bruise, bone bruise. Yeah, bone spurs, loose bodies, et cetera. Not always, but they often, you know, have complications that come about after a pitcher recovers. So it's just, you know, Spencer Schwellenbach's whole ordeal.
Speaker 6A stress fracture would concern me more than a bone.
Speaker 5That's a word. But remember, that was last February, I think it was a bone spur for him. And it ended up costing him the whole season. The timetable is different. That seems like a worst case scenario, but worst case scenarios do occasionally happen. So I do think, like, it doesn't matter all that much right now, but I'd rather move Max Freed down right now than not, I think.
Speaker 4We did get some interesting news from the White Sox, as their GM Chris Goetz said here on Tuesday. Grant Taylor will move into the rotation next season while Hagan Smith will remain in the bullpen. So definitely makes Grant Taylor a fun breakout candidate. His ADP in early drafts is very high because he's being drafted as a closer, it seems like. His early ADP is 104, sandwiched between Reid Detmers and Braxton Ashcraft. So if you count that out, I think that's somewhere like around SP24. That would seem very optimistic for Grant Taylor. So I don't know where that. I have to imagine the ADP moves down. I don't know how far it moves down, but people are still going to be excited because his skills were so good as a reliever. But yeah, interested to see where that kind of lands.
Speaker 6Part of the problem with drafting this early, as some people clearly are doing, is just the relief pitcher scene hasn't had a chance to shake out at all. And right now, it's a stretch to say I'm confident in, what, 15 teams closers. Or not even that. Not even what 15 teams closers will be. It's a stretch to say that I'm confident as many as 15 relievers will be closing next year. So more than that need to be drafted, obviously. So you get some really speculative names pulled way up in the ADP because of that. And Grant Taylor had been one. As things stand, I have him 16th in my relief pitcher rankings. As clearer closer candidates emerge, I imagine they'll leapfrog him. But there aren't many. I have no idea if Emilio Pagan's going to be a closer next year, or if Kenley Jansen's going to be a closer next year, or who the Mets are going to go with as their closer next year. I actually do rank Devin Williams one spot ahead of Grant Taylor, so I'm leaning Devin Williams. But that's the sort of thing I'm having to think about here. Who the Twins closer is going to be, who the Athletics closer is going to be, who the Diamondbacks closer is going to be, or the Orioles closer. There's just so much that needs to be resolved there. Grant Taylor having a rotation spot for the White Sox. I think he'll be a success in it. Obviously, it's speculation. But at least we're not speculating on whether or not he'll have a fantasy-relevant role. He will. So that puts him 16th for me. And that's for Roto. In points, it's even higher.
Speaker 4It's 13th. Yeah, as a spark for points leagues, yeah.
Speaker 5Yeah. I think that 104 ADP is too high for him as a starter, though. I think his value is better as a closer for fantasy than as a starter, at least without having seen him do it. I think the upside for him as a starting pitcher could be that high. But this is a guy with, I mean, really no track record as a starting pitcher. We have nothing to go on here. The stuff looked really good in a relief role, and he was really good. good in that role, but he had Tommy John surgery in 2021. he missed the entire 2023 season. He threw 27 innings in 2024. He threw about 63 innings in 2025. And then he threw 84 innings last year. Very little of that time has been spent as a full-time starter. So we don't really know what Grant Taylor looks like when he's trying to throw six innings. I can try to project and I'm trying to be more open-minded to this because there have been a lot of really successful reliever-to-starter transitions, including multiple on the White Sox in the past two years. I think, was Sean Burke a reliever-to-starter transition? I know Garrett Crochet obviously is the big one. I think he was just a starter in the minors. Okay. But he hadn't thrown a ton of innings. So I'm trying to be more open to this. And we've got Didier Fuentes and a couple other guys, but- Yeah. If the- If the cost is around 100 overall, there's no way.
Speaker 6I'm drafting Grant Taylor. It's the sort of thing where I think it can drive you crazy as an analyst because I don't think you can put a numeric value on what you expect Grant Taylor to look like as a starter. It's just, okay, I know he's talented. I know he has a starter's arsenal, four pitches he used as a multi-inning reliever this past year. I know the White Sox have confidence in him. I know this has worked out for a lot of pitchers who've made this transition, whether it's, you know, Griffin Jacks is another one just last year that I think people were skeptical of, but it worked out pretty well. So you just find a point in the rankings where you're like, I'm willing to take a chance on that. And you do it and you hope for the best.
Speaker 4He's got to be around 60 maybe, if not later. Do you guys think it's more likely that he falls in the range between Ian Seymour and Griffin Jacks, which would represent basically 140 to 160 in the ADP? Or more likely he falls between Griffin Jacks and Didier Fuentes, which would be- Between like 160 and 185.
Speaker 6I have Grant Taylor as my top ranked spark for next year. So ahead of Seymour and Griffin Jacks is where I have him. What drafters at large will do, I have no idea.
Speaker 5So if Fuentes and Taylor had the same role, like if we got confirmation that Fuentes was also going to be a starter, I can't see a case for ranking one significantly ahead of the other. I think they'd have to be-
Speaker 4It feels like they would just meet somewhere in the middle, like 140 or 150.
Speaker 5I think it would have to be 150, 160-ish overall.
Speaker 4Yeah. Yeah. And as a result of Grant Taylor moving to the rotation, we don't really know what's going to happen with the White Sox bullpen. It was pretty messy this past season. They were kind of all over the place with their closer usage. But as of now, you know, Brian Hudson, Jordan Hicks, maybe even Hagan Smith could earn saves for this team. And they could still go out and sign somebody. So we just really don't have an idea for the White Sox.
Speaker 6I mentioned to some of the free agent closers, there's also the biggest two are David Bednar and Rysell Iglesias, who I do have ranked in my top 15 because I'm a big fan of the White Sox. I'm a big fan of the White Sox. I'm expecting they'll sign to close somewhere, but I can't promise that, obviously.
Speaker 4Yeah. Other updates here for the Braves. Spencer Schreider is expected to be ready for spring training, while Spencer Schwellenbach will not be ready. So factor that into your equation. Ben Brown had cervical spine surgery to address that lingering issue in his neck. He's expected to start throwing early in the new year. Should be ready for game action in the spring. Should be ready for game action in the appeal. Looked really good adding that sinker in this past season. And he still could have value at some point, you know, for first half. I mean, that could be depending on when the season starts. For the most part, I'm just going to, whenever we talk, I'm just going to act as if the season's starting on time until we, you know, get some kind of update that it's not. But yeah, early in the season, maybe we're picking Ben Brown up as a sleeper at that point. Adrian Morejon's preference is to remain a reliever moving forward. If he goes back to the Padres, that would obviously be as an elite center. But I don't think he's going to be able to do that. I don't think he's going to be able to But if he lands somewhere else, I mean, he could just become a top 10 closer right away. So definitely interested in the landing spot for Adrian Morejon. Some Red Sox updates. Chris, you mentioned this. Roman Anthony will be reevaluated in a couple of weeks, at which point he's likely to begin a range of motion and strengthening program. He re-aggravated his wrist injury in the playoffs. So good that he doesn't need surgery. But again, hopefully we get that update before things kind of lock down here. And then Craig, as Lo said, it's premature to suggest top prospect Franklin Arias could win a starting job during spring training. But he was also non-committal on whether Trevor's story will be the team starting shortstop. So I don't know. Somebody has to start at shortstop. But it sounds like they're kind of leaving that open-ended right now for the Red Sox. And we do have awards. Not for us to give out that, you know, we're actually giving out baseball. But we already did that. Yes. Yes, we did. Lots of Murphy, NL Manager of the Year.
Speaker 5Did you see Pat Murphy accepting the award on MLB Network tonight? No. From the hospital after having hip replacement surgery. Oh, my gosh. It seemed like he was a little loopy. It was delightful. Apparently, he's been texting with Bruce Springsteen, which just must be a thrill for him. I don't know if you saw his press conference where he talked about how much he loves Springsteen. That guy is living the life right now. That is wild stuff.
Speaker 4Kevin McGonigal won the AL Rookie of the Year award as expected, and then my guy, Sal Stewart, wins the National League Rookie of the Year award, and the baseball world is losing their minds. I didn't realize, truly, I kind of thought it was a toss-up, but it kind of feels like, or maybe those are just the tweets that I was fed on my Twitter page, but everybody just wanted Carson Bench and thought Carson Bench was absolutely going to win this award, and that did not happen.
Speaker 5I think this one's weird because, like, okay, if you're going to make the sabermetric argument for Carson Bench over Sal Stewart, I think that's perfectly reasonable, but why is Carson Bench the obvious choice over J.J. Weatherholt, who was more valuable by Fangraph's war, baseball reference war, I'm pretty sure baseball prospectus war had him ahead. Like, I get that defense is a little less obvious than offense, but if you're making the sabermetrics case, I don't think it's obvious that Carson Bench is the obvious choice. I don't think it's obvious that Carson Bench got robbed. I think you can make a very strong case that Sal Stewart by the sabermetrics shouldn't have won, but I don't think it's like, oh, Carson Bench got robbed. I think it's like, Nolan McClain has a pretty good case. He had a 316 ERA and the second most rookie strikeouts ever. Like, I just, I think it's weird that it has, like, coalesced around Carson Bench got robbed. I don't quite understand why this has happened.
Speaker 6I think the knock on Weatherholt, and whether or not it's fair is for you to decide. That's the whole thing. I mean, it's people voting. Everybody gets to decide their own criteria. But the problem with Weatherholt is his war basically stood still after the All-Star break because he was so bad in the second half and was playing with injury. So, yes, he did finish with more war than Carson Bench, right? But it felt like his season was incomplete in that way. But, I mean, the main issue, it was just, it was a banner year for rookies in both leagues. I mean, Parker Messick basically had no chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year, and yet he had a top three Cy Young finish. Peyton Tolley was incredible. Tolley was incredible.
Speaker 5Peyton Tolley's going to be a top 10 pitcher in fantasy next season.
Speaker 6And, like, normally, normally I would give it to the war winner. I obviously didn't really have a vote, but I was totally fine with Sal Stewart because it's like, yes, war, I think, says a lot. And I think particularly, particularly when you're looking at full career accomplishments, comparing career, career to across eras, I think war goes pretty far to telling you how valuable players are. But it's more of an approximation stat than precisely saying, okay, this player was exactly good at doing this over the course of the year. There are different versions of war out there, so how precise can it be? You have a 12 homer advantage for Sal Stewart is a big advantage. A 47 RBI. A 47 RBI advantage for Sal Stewart. I mean, those counting stat advantages he had were just impossible to ignore. So even though he wasn't quite as good in terms of war, he was only half as good in terms of war, it's still like, it feels like he was the more impactful player, even though this data point says he wasn't. I think it's fine. I think it's fine.
Speaker 5Yeah. Yeah, like, Scott, you posted someone's ballot on Twitter that people were mad at because he had Sal Stewart fifth. But like, my thing is, as long as there's an internal consistency in your voting, and it makes sense and there's logic to it, I'm not going to complain about it. And that guy clearly favored the Saber metrics. That's perfectly reasonable. I also think it's perfectly reasonable to look at it and say, the guy who had 32 homers and 15 steals and drove in, what, 112 runs or whatever it was as a rookie? Yeah. Had a really good rookie season, even if you might think that someone else is a better, better player. I think that's perfectly fine. It also just like, it doesn't matter that much, you know? Like, I can't get worked up over a rookie of the year the way I would over a bad MVP choice, because it just, you look at the, like, does anybody really care that Chris Coghlan won a rookie of the year 15 years ago? No. Like, it's fine. We're all, we all recognize that he had a good year, but it didn't really heal that much. Should have been Tommy Hanson, all right? No, it should have been Chris Coghlan. It was the perfect choice.
Speaker 4yeah well let me remind you of what one named Luis Hill, who won the rookie of the year a couple of years ago. Yeah, it doesn't really matter. It does matter to me, though, as someone who bet on Sal Stewart before the season. So, yes, very happy that happened. Let's take our final break. We will eventually talk about outfielders. We'll do it right after this break, and we'll be back right after this.
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Speaker 4Welcome back. All right, we've got about 30 minutes left. Let's try and get through the top 12 outfielders. Tomorrow, we will spend a lot more time on, like, the top 40. So we'll try and get through as many of those 30 names as we possibly can. But moving on, we have, according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, they measured this by the 5x5 Roto categories. I'll also mention CBS Points Leagues. Like previous positions, I will pass over players we already spoke about on other podcasts. Your number one outfielder, the number one player in fantasy this past season was PCA Pete Crow Armstrong, likely NL MVP, and provided nearly $50 of Roto value, 659.5 fantasy points. 4.1 fantasy points on CBS, 4.1 fantasy points per game. Those were both tops among hitters. Hit.280,.372 OBP, big improvement there. 45 homers, 119 runs, 41 steals. The seventh.40-40 season in MLB history. Obviously made massive improvements across the board. The question is, how much of that does he maintain? What are we expecting moving forward? Scott, the early ADP has PCA as the number one player. I did a draft over the weekend. He was the number one pick. What do you think?
Speaker 6I might be on my own in that I don't have him as the number one player. I have him as the number one outfielder, but I do have Shohei Otani ahead of him for next year, as things stand right now, not knowing what physical state Otani will be in at the start of spring training. But Pete Crow Armstrong, I think he's really good. I thought he was really good. Going into last year, there were obviously bigger concerns. And I'm not sure those concerns are completely eliminated by one season where he answered them. First of all, if you just look at the data that normally tells you what kind of power hitter somebody is, I don't think he profiles as a 45-homer guy. Probably more like a 35-homer guy, which is still really good with everything else he does. But also this MVP historic season he had was built on plate discipline he had never demonstrated before at any level. And maybe he just made a leap as far as that goes, but normally one year isn't enough to say conclusively that he did. So I could see him giving some of that back, which would mean less batting average, less of the runs. I mean, 119 runs is a huge number, obviously, unlikely to be sustained even if he continues to reach base at the same rate. So I think it's reasonable to expect a half-step back for Pete Crow Armstrong next year. Still better than his 2025 season, but not just penciling these numbers for him again. There has never before been a two-time 40-40 guy. So Pete Crow Armstrong is very unlikely to be the first. Yeah, I think he's the top outfielder next year, but I do think a little bit of a step back is to be expected.
Speaker 5Yeah, he's my number one pick, but I also think a step back is to be expected. I think the thing you always have to keep in mind, with any early round picks, is usually you don't get a positive return on investment for your first round picks or your second round picks and often your third round picks, just because there's only one direction most of them can go. We probably just saw the best season of Pete Crow Armstrong's career. You usually don't say that about 23-year-olds, but very few players in Major League history have had a better season than Pete Crow Armstrong just did. So I think it's reasonable to say that a step back is coming. But I think it's reasonable to say that a step back is coming. I still think he has the strongest skill set right now. Would I be surprised if he finished 42nd next year? I would not. But I wouldn't be surprised if Shohei Otani finished 42nd or whoever. So I'll take PCA at the top.
Speaker 4The number two outfielder was Jordan Alvarez, who stayed healthy and had that monster season. The likely AL MVP winner provided $37 of Roto value, second among outfielders in total fantasy points, 3.9 fantasy points, was also second in the outfield. He hit 316, 432 on base, is massive, 42 homers. He's up over 210 runs plus RBI. The OPS is up over 1,000. He was 97th percentile or better in XWOBA, XBA, XSLUG, average EV, barrel rate, hard hit rate, launch angle, sweet spot percentage. Chris, we know that your guy, Jordan Alvarez, is awesome when he's healthy. We can't really answer this question, but that is the question. Can he stay healthy again?
Speaker 5Can he? Yeah, absolutely. Will he? Maybe not. I don't know. Yeah. This is probably not the best hitter in baseball, but might be. If Aaron Judge isn't that guy anymore, which is entirely possible at 34, yeah, Jordan Alvarez very well may be the single best hitter in baseball right now. You look at. WRC Plus since 2019 when he made his debut. Aaron Judge is the only better hitter than Jordan Alvarez this season. He has a 166 WRC Plus. It's 158 for Juan Soto, who's third. Shohei Otani, 154, is fourth. So I was a little worried that the reaction to the season Jordan Alvarez just had would be for everybody to say, all right, cool, he's not going to get hurt again. And not. No, there's kind of a little bit of a discount still. Look, he's 11th overall in ADP, but he's the 7th outfielder. You're taking. People are taking Aaron Judge over him. People are taking Juan Soto over him. People are. I mean, Jackson Chirio, James Wood, Fernando Tatis, there's at least the stolen base potential there or the stolen base skills there. But yeah, I think Jordan Alvarez's price is perfectly fine. Anywhere, if you can get him outside of the top 10, you should be thrilled with that result. So I'm. I'm perfectly fine with Jordan Alvarez at this price.
Speaker 6So I guess I'm the one who is going to draft him like he won't get hurt again. In part because who else can you draft trusting they won't get hurt? You can't do that with Shohei Otani. You can't do that with Aaron Judge. You can't do that with Juan Soto.
Speaker 5Juan Soto just missed a bunch of time. James Wood missed some time. Jackson Chirio missed time. Like all these guys. Ronald Acuna's right behind him.
Speaker 6Yeah. Yeah. So like. Yes, there is the possibility. Jordan Alvarez, like he only had the one year where he missed a ton of time with injury. It's usually just like a short IL stint. But yeah, sure. He has a bit of an injury history there as most of the first round does. But you look at that stat line he put up, those career best numbers, none of that seems beyond his capabilities. Like this seems like. That's just who he is. He was always trending toward being this and he probably would have been this already if not for those years where he played more like 135. So I don't see anything Alvarez did this year as unsustainable or unlikely to happen again. It's just a question if he gets hurt. So I have him. He's my fourth overall pick. Not outfielder. Fourth overall pick for 2027. And early ADP has him going 12th. So that was actually. When I was looking over this first release of ADP from NFBC, that was probably the most surprising thing to me is that Jordan Alvarez barely a first rounder. For 12 team leagues. When to me, he's a top five.
Speaker 4All right. Number three, we are. Skipping over Fernando Tatis, who we spoke about on the second base preview. And next up is Randy Rosarena, who had a massive contract year, finishes the 11th overall player, provided $30 of Roto value, fourth in total fantasy points among outfielders, 3.5 fantasy points per game. He hit.281 with a.381 on base, 26 homers, 113 runs scored, and 26 steals. It was an awesome season, no doubt. I don't want to take anything away from him. But the underlying data does not support it at all. It looks a lot like most of his other seasons. He's a free agent this offseason. We'll see where he winds up signing. But I would expect more like a typical Randy season. 240 to.250. He's going to go.2020, maybe.2525. And that's still a really good player. But I think that's more like a top 50 or top 60 draft pick, which is where he's being drafted. So I don't have a problem with that. It's just like, don't overrate this contract year for Randy.
Speaker 6Yeah, and I thought people would overrate it. And I guess I'm glad they're not, because I'm not either. It was a more than 40-point increase in batting average for him in 2027. Not just from last year, but from the previous three years. For the previous three years, it was like a 45-point increase in batting average. And like you said, the underlying data doesn't support it. If anything, I'd be worried about some decline in the underlying data, because his average bat speed dropped 1.5. miles per hour, which is not a small drop.
Speaker 4And he might be older than you think. He's 32, 33, so.
Speaker 6He was 31 this past year. He'll be 32 in February. But yeah, having a career year in your 30s is always something to be skeptical of. And he is leaving Seattle, which at least we think he's leaving Seattle, which should be a plus, but he didn't really have a problem hitting there. So I'm not sure it matters that much. I think the right approach, as you said, Frank, is to treat Randy Rosarena like the guy he was pre-2026 and not put much stock in the career performance.
Speaker 4Which, again, is a very viable player. I don't want people to think that we're just poo-pooing Randy. I don't think he's coming close to being a top-12 player, once again, in fantasy. The No. 4 outfielder was one of the big breakouts. Jordan Walker, post-hype prospect, finally put it together, provided $30 of Roto value. Eighth among outfielders in total fantasy points. 3.1 fantasy points per game. He hit.269, 29 homers, 97 runs, 102 RBI, 22 steals. He did flounder down the stretch, apparently played through a hip injury. The September numbers were really, really bad. Chris and I spoke extensively about Jordan Walker at first pitch, so Scott, we'll throw it your way. What are you thinking?
Speaker 6Chris has so much he wants to say.
Speaker 5I do have some more information.
Speaker 4All right, Chris, why don't you kick us off? Scott, you tell us how you feel.
Speaker 5So I've been talking all offseason about wanting to do this research, and I finally started it today. I wanted to look at guys who broke out and what that looked like the following season and whether the shape of their production mattered, specifically the guys who were better in the first half and then floundered in the second half like Jordan Walker did. So I looked at baseball prospectuses projections from 2002 to 2025, not including 2015. 2020, not including 2026, because the following season hasn't happened, and 2020 didn't count. There were 79 players between 2002 and 2025 who outperformed their Pagoda projected OPS by at least 20%. On average, those players were projected for a 723 OPS. They put up a 910 OPS the following season, or that season. The following season, after the one we're talking about, they put up on average an 814 OPS. There was on average about 100 points, of OPS decline. Now, here's what's really interesting. 19 of those players were better in the second half of the season than the first half by at least 100 points of OPS. That group, on average, declined about 37 points of OPS. So not very much. That's really close. Basically, everyone else declined about 110 to 140 points of OPS. And that includes the players who were better in the second half of the season. Players who were at least 100 points better in the first half than the second half, a group that would include Jordan Walker, that group declined from an average OPS of 902 to 765 the following season. But players that were within 50 points one way or the other in the first and second half declined by about 110 points on average. So a pretty big decline there as well. These are all small sample sizes, so I don't think there's anything. But it does point in the direction of you would rather have the guy who was better in the second half than the first half. But as a general rule, when you see a player break out the way Jordan Walker did, you should expect pretty significant regression, regardless of what the shape of whether they were better in the first half, better in the second half. Just as a rule, you should expect some pretty significant regression. Now, Jordan Walker can give up 80 points of OPS. And so, Jordan Walker can still be a very good player. But I think we should expect him to be worse in 2027 than he was in 2026. That's where I'm setting my baseline. And for the most part, that's what the drafters so far are looking at. He's 32.6 in ADP. Last year, he was what? 15th overall? 14th? So I think we are being reasonable enough, but there's still plenty of room for him to disappoint as a top 36 pick too.
Speaker 480 points of OPS though, Chris. If you get a 715 OPS bat from your third round pick, you're not feeling good about that.
Speaker 6It's like the breakout didn't happen. If that's what happens for Jordan Walker. That's the macro analysis. The micro analysis is, it wasn't really, it wasn't like, yes, I understand the second half, the second half splits were terrible. It was mostly just September. He was playing through that hip injury. His August was really good. He had over 300, had an OPS over 850. He ended August, Jordan Walker batting 285 with an 839 OPS. It ended up being 269 with a 793 OPS because that September and the hip injury, it was all so bad. He was a monster talent who we had, the breakthrough was only surprising because we had expected it all to happen. All ready to happen and we were tired of getting the rug pulled out from under us. But he was a 24-year-old monster prospect with huge, like a stack cast darling, hits the ball extremely hard, incredible bat speed. Seeing him break out wasn't a surprise. And I think, look, I rank him 12th. Among outfielders, that's where he's going in ADP. I didn't know what it would be in ADP. My just inclination was to rank him 12th. So right in line with that, with the consensus, I'm perfectly happy to take him at that point. I think there's a chance he outperforms that because if not for September, Jordan Walker was trending toward being a second round pick, I think in 2027. Now he's not.
Speaker 5There is some fun with arbitrary end points here because if you just do June 1st through the end of the season, he hit 258 with a 730 OPS. Now that was still roughly a 22 homer, 22 steal. 85 run, 85 RBI pace.
Speaker 6And it includes the September. It just makes it 25% of his season instead of 16%. Yeah, 25% of the season instead of 16%.
Speaker 5Yeah, let's see what it was. But the point is, the counting stats were still good. There's still power and speed. There are still, he's insulated in some ways from the worst case scenarios. So if you take out September, it's a 282 batting average. That's awesome. It was a 346 batting average. That's tough. It's like 23 homers, 22 steals. Pretty good counting stats. That feels reasonable. I would take the under on a 282 batting average, certainly. But 265, 22 to 25 homers, 20 to 22 steals, 85-ish runs in RBI each. That's probably not a bad pick in the third round. And there's obviously upside beyond that. Now there's risk that the bottom falls out. But I think the well-rounded nature, of his skill set, does insulate him from some of the true bottom-out potential.
Speaker 4Let's move on to the number five outfielder. And that was Jackson Churio, who missed the first month with a fractured hand. And it did not matter. He provided $26 of Roto value, 3.5 fantasy points per game, hit 291, 25 homers, 23 steals. His full season pace, 31 homers, 122 runs, 95 RBI, and 29 steals. Finally got that big jump in quality, quality of contact. And this is just your latest reminder that he doesn't turn 23 years old until March. So he is a consistent late first round pick. And I think that is rightfully so.
Speaker 6Yeah, at least in Roto. Now this is probably the first outfielder we've brought up. That's only the fifth outfielder we've talked about, right? This is the first one we've talked about where I think there is notable difference between his 5x5/Roto value and his points league value. since he doesn't walk much it drags him down in points leagues there are others like that julio rodriguez uh being the biggest but he won't be drafted far outside of the first round even in a points league jack centurio because he did take this step forward this year two mile per hour jump and average exit velocity and he was already a guy you could pencil in for 2020 production even before that leap in exit velocity uh batting average you've got to consider him a plus there as well uh just just somebody who who stands out in all five categories honestly he's starting to look like the best version of kyle tucker just with bad plate discipline instead of good plate
Speaker 4discipline yeah he feels a lot like julio rodriguez you mentioned and you know it's like i'm not going to say it's you know coming to fruition sooner because julio had some awesome seasons earlier on in his career they feel very similar but uh you know the quality of contact that we saw this year with chario i don't know that we've ever seen quality of contact that good for julio rodriguez so obviously trending very very well and yeah borderline first round pick for next year somebody else who is a first round pick that is james wood who is the next up here he was having a monster breakout and then an oblique strain in august unfortunately messed that up but he provided 26 dollars of roto value 3.7 fantasy points per game hit 265 388 on base 30 homers up over 100 runs scored 21 steals he did all that in only 135 games he's an incredibly patient hitter he dropped the strikeout rate a little he still strikes out a lot don't get me wrong but he did improve on that it's massive bat speed massive exit velocities chris i think if james wood stays healthy his upside not my expectation but his upside could be a 40 30 season on the high end of the game highest high end yeah
Speaker 5absolutely i mean there are tweaks he still needs to make he needs to continue to elevate the ball more consistently that started to happen a little bit last season but you know we're still waiting for the true break like he's not optimized in the same way pete car armstrong is uh in terms of his power hitting but the raw power is unquestionably bigger for james wood it's i mean it's it's unquiet it's it's bigger for james wood than just about anybody in baseball uh that we're talking about a potential the potential for a top five hitter in the entire league even if he strikes out 30 of the time like that that's it's it's a potential aaron judge type outcome and since
Speaker 6you evoke the name pete crow armstrong i just want to point out he you know you say james wood's power isn't his swing isn't optimized for home run power the way pete crow armstrong's has become for most of 2026 because remember we were comparing those same two heading into the season too they were both early third rounders and they were both going to be going to be going to be going to be going to a lot of talent but people had doubts about him for most of 2026 i thought oh man i took the wrong one pete crow armstrong being my most drafted player oh james wood is the one i should have taken instead that's that's how pete crow armstrong started out this season even with his swing not being optimized for power and that's how much uh that that uh uh was oblique yeah though that oblique injury took him down at the end he didn't did he hit a single home run after returning from the oblique injury i'm not sure but he was
Speaker 5two and 38 games okay it
Speaker 6was he did not seem the same and yet his final numbers were still unquestionably first round caliber yeah i think a very exciting pick somebody who is on the short list of uh players who you could consider drafting what the top 10 there's like a clear top 10 among
Speaker 4hitters yeah yeah i i'm in a slow draft for the nfbc and they have the kds where you you set in order the draft picks that you want and i basically put eight nine ten as my preferred option because i was happy with to get any of those players whoever falls from that top 10 i'm happy to get i think i wound up with pick nine and so i started with james wood and jose ramirez and i absolutely love that so uh yeah i i think it's going to be a better season to be picking somewhere like the mid to late first rather than having the first overall pick next season uh let's move on to the number seven outfielder that was jake mccarthy who got a chance to play every day with the rockies and he destroyed even our highest expectations provided 24 of roto value he was 10th among outfielders in total fantasy points 3.2 fantasy points per game hit 291 with 15 homers 32 steals and he wasn't just a product of chorus field he had a big jump lefties where does he go from here the early adp puts him around 125 which i think is okay i think that's fair i don't know that i'm gonna be the one to press the button to press draft on him but i think that's a fair cost based on the season he just
Speaker 5had so here's what his uh his pace would look like just taking the games away from course field 270 batting average 12 homers 26 deals like 60 runs in rbi that's still a useful player it's like nico horner but it's not a great one um but he's still presumably playing half his games of course field like that that's the thing is the rockies do have if the rockies have a glut anywhere it's in the corner outfields and i think jake mccarthy is probably not a center fielder at this point so if they wanted to move him i don't think that would be dumb like i think it would be a pretty smart move thing for them to do but i'm not sure they're gonna do that and so as long as he's on the rockies okay maybe he's not quite as good as next season maybe it's 10 homers maybe it's a 280 batting average but i i can't see this the floor dropping out with course field but you do have to account for if it does there's real playing time risk because they have no long-term commitment to him yeah and the risk of a trade to some team where he's either not an everyday player or is an everyday player but it's just a worse much worse environment and so i don't think you can take him at face value what he did last season but i'm not terrified of drafting jake mccarthy i think you have to get a discount but i think that that discount is there um yeah i haven't met 35 i think he's not far from that in the adp right 31 so yeah i think that's fine 125th to 135th that seems reasonable and see
Speaker 6i came out with him 20th and i wasn't trying to be like oh i'm i'm gonna come out and be bullish on jake mccarthy it's it's always hard to know where to rank these guys these one-hit wonders who you could see doing it again but just the fact that he's well he wasn't quite 30 yet he's gonna turn 30 in 2027 but you know mid mid-career guy who did something he never did before and obviously environment has a lot to do with it but you don't expect that environment to change as you said chris i think the bigger risk even than mccarthy being traded uh because he has another year of control after next year the bigger risk is just that he turns into a pumpkin in an organization with a lot of young outfielders and they don't have the patience to stick with
Speaker 5them or just has one bad month you know like that's it's not even like turns into a slump for a month and they just decide that they'd rather throw cole kerrig and uh zach veen and charlie condon out there instead um
Speaker 6having said that like i'm looking at some of the players because i have him i have mccarthy ranked as the 20th outfielder for next year 31st is where he's going in adp if that remains i'm gonna have to move him down some because i don't want to get jake mccarthy in every league but say don rafael is going ahead of him you have jake mccarthy yeah what's the rationale for that like even like jake mccarthy seems like say don rafael i get that
Speaker 5we really like like there's a lot of things to like henry bolte but yeah that one he needs to improve to be like he kind of had a worse version of jake mccarthy's season i know like the physical skills are very impressive with henry bolte but it doesn't mean that much you know like jake mccarthy was still the better player last season so
Speaker 4a lot of these names like zach geloff cole kerrig roman anthony they're all unproven you know it's just if you told me that jake mccarthy was going at 105 just ahead of zach geloff and then jake mccarthy was going at 105 and then jake mccarthy was going at 105 and then that would make sense in my mind and i know you guys are anywhere from that i know you guys are split on gel off just talking to people this weekend it seems the industry is about as split as you two are on zach geloff like there are people that love him there are people completely
Speaker 6out on him so early early adp is about where i rank them yeah but it's way higher than i rank it's it's it's understand like i i just i think maybe some of this and and maybe people listening you know most are mostly just casually listening to fantasy baseball podcasts in the off season and maybe haven't dug into the numbers themselves if you didn't have mccarthy this past year like he was amazing for fantasy yeah he was a monster he was remember that year jaron duran had that uh got him drafted in the second round the following year which turned out to be too high but that's the kind of year mccarthy had and nobody's drafting him anywhere near that high which they shouldn't but what's
Speaker 5funny about that is jake mccarthy's only like a year older than jaron duran was during that
Speaker 6big season yep
Speaker 5j jaron duran was 27 that year jake mccarthy turned 29 last july that's not a huge difference but it's not one was viewed as this ascending young player and one is there's no way he's gonna do it again and right he might yeah moving on to
Speaker 4number eight we've got money mike michael harris the second got back on track after a down 2025 he provided 23 of roto value 16th among outfielders in total fantasy points 2.9 fantasy points per game so somebody definitively we know is better in roto or categories than he is in a points league he hit 294 with 16 homers and 12 steals he improved his launch angle and pulled air rate hopefully he can maintain those things i am a little bit worried about the steals the sprint speed dropped off this year i know he was playing through a back injury for most of the season so maybe that's an explanation i mean i think he's still athletic enough to get it done but the drop in sprint speed and the steals kind of worries me a little bit um "last year his adp was around 100 now it's around 60 would you guys still be buying at that cost for michael harris i think
Speaker 6it's a little higher than i have him but i i get it i'm not going to be bullish on harris next year i'm going to be bearish that's the opposite of bullish because i mean you look at the stat line here i agree you can't really count on him to be a clear plus in steals anymore i think i think he probably won't be batting average certainly he's capable of being a big plus in batting average he's done that three times now but particularly for as undisciplined as of a hitter as he is it's a very fine line between the 290 season and a 260 season so he may not end up being a plus in that the home runs were a career high and while 26 is very good it's i'm not sure he's capable of much better in that category and then the runs in rbi were still hmm fine but not for not for as high as you're going to take them and that's that's what i'm noticing people are tending to ignore with uh some of this early adp is the run and rbi totals which i get on the one hand it's like okay a player doesn't have direct control over that so how much stock do you want to put in historic performance as far as runs and rbi go but there are certain attributes players have there are certain tendencies their teams have that that correspond to how many runs in rbi they get and as somebody who long basically just ignored those stats thinking it'll all come out fine in the wash it didn't like i i had several seasons in tout wars where i would be like second or third in home runs and like 14th or 15th in home runs and i would be like second or third in home runs and runs or rbi and it's like okay i gotta start paying more attention to that i think michael harris because of some of his own peculiarities and because just the way the braves tend to make out their lineup he's never going to be that good for runs or rbi so it's really just small plus in home runs maybe a big plus in batting average but maybe not maybe he's like a c plus in batting average and how much do you want to invest in that yeah
Speaker 4it's always kind of felt like the sum of the parts for michael harris because he's like a c plus in batting average kind of like javier baez was back in his prime where he didn't really have a standout skill but he was like pretty good across the board the one thing that i would push back and it wasn't reflected this year scott in the counting stats you're right about that and he's never had big counting stats his plate appearances by where he hit in the order his top four spots were a fourth fifth first and second and that's the first time that's that's the first time we've ever seen that like he was always routinely you know seventh eighth ninth in the lineup it feels kind of fluky or weird to me that he consistently hit in the top five in the braves lineup this past year and still didn't have good counting stats so if he does
Speaker 5well if he hits 87 rbi is fine and 79 runs for a low obp guy is fine i think it's fine i think he had decent running rbi numbers and but i think it could be better if it wasn't great i think
Speaker 4if he hits top five in the braves lineup again next year i think it actually could be better
Speaker 6it could be but he he's um it's hard it's gonna be hard for him to repeat that batting average in those home runs
Speaker 5as i said so i do think if you're projecting the braves lineup right now you probably do have to project him hitting that high though just because albies and and austin riley have always hit ahead of him and there's no way you do that next season right so i think he's probably top five in that lineup next year yeah
Speaker 4hopefully so uh next up we have jackson merrill the number nine outfielder he got off to a slow start really picked things up provided twenty three dollars of roto value he was 12th among outfielders in total fantasy points 2.9 fantasy points per game another one who he is uh better in roto and categories than he is in a points league he wound up hitting 254 26 homers 27 steals but the first 62 games 198 with a 594 ops final 96 hit 289 with an 835 ops so uh it was a solid jump in bat speed best quality of contact of his career and he's still entering just his age 24 season chris the problem now is uh the adp is all the way back up to 27 so a fringe two three turn kind of pick do you pay the price for jackson
Speaker 5merrill i do um i i think there is as with michael harris there's some inherent volatility in this profile even more so than than most players because he's a bad plate discipline guy he he chases a lot he makes a lot of contact he hits the ball really hard there's possible room for growth in i mean really across the board but especially with the the raw power as he ages but the the plate discipline as it stands has never been good and and has not gotten better so it's this is a guy who kind of needs to physically outrun his approach and we've seen with michael harris with jackson merrill with yiner diaz and even someone like i think vladimir guerrero is a pretty good example of this obviously i think he has better contact skills but he's a good guy and he's a good guy and he's a good guy and he's a good guy he swings a lot of pitches that he probably shouldn't um and when you can make contact with those pitches there's a certain level of getting away with it but i think it does lead to these peaks and valleys with with a player like that and so i think you draft jackson merrill hoping you're getting a 25 25 guy who hits 260 but we know that this kind of profile until it changes until he shores things up and he may never we know that there's going to be wide error bars for a player like jackson merrill and i think you just you draft him knowing that there's a ton of upside and that's worth chasing at this point in the draft but you're you're taking on some risk with with jackson merrill as a now top 12 pick um top 12 i rather pick top 12 outfielder i i rank him ninth so i'm okay with that or tenth but it's definitely risky for sure we are
Speaker 4gonna skip over bryce harper and jake bowers we spoke about both of those on the first base pre uh review and so next up and this is the last name we'll talk about here today we'll pick it back up at 11 tomorrow uh that is say a suzuki who has become a very consistent contributor provided close to 20 of roto value 3.2 fantasy points per game hit 270 with a 368 on base 26 homers 96 runs 86 rbi and that's with an il stint to start the season really good plate discipline his quality of contact did come down and he over poured over performed his expected stats by quite a bit so i'm not he's overperformed two years in a row so it's like i don't know i at some point i kind of just expect him to keep doing that but he's a free agent this offseason interested to see where he signs i saw it earlier the mariners are interested in bringing in say a suzuki so wouldn't love that for his fantasy value um scott i don't think say suzuki's gonna be a top 10 outfielder once again but he just feels one of these like rock solid top 20-ish outfielders you know outfielder too who just you know you basically know what to expect
Speaker 6yeah i i don't have a lot of interesting things to say about say a suzuki he feels like somebody who's very likely to be a plus in four categories but a plus plus and no categories and so that just seems like a rock solid second outfielder to me regardless of format there's been some fluctuation in the batting average over the years i guess uh even though the expected batting average has held pretty steady in the 245 to 250 range but you know 270 this year 245 in 2025 283 in 2024 so generally he's outperformed that and been a plus in batting average but that that's probably the riskiest stat of uh the four where you expect him to do well and you know even there i think odds are he'll be at least serviceable so yeah just a really solid number two outfielder say a suzuki unless maybe he goes to seattle we'll keep an eye on that i mean
Speaker 5it's worth he's 32 yeah so you know i i think you're more likely to be disappointed if you take him at face value than than not um especially because he's not going to land in
Speaker 6a better lineup than the one he was just in i i have a feeling he's somebody the i felt that way about a lot of players and they haven't but sometimes they do um we'll see but they could use a left fielder they could use another big right-handed bat and that would be a good destination for his fantasy value i
Speaker 4think the early adp seems pretty low too i don't know if people are maybe just scared that always
Speaker 5happens that's true scared about where you might land people treat free agents in these early drafts as if they may never sign and he might retire who knows yeah he's outfielder 28 he's behind henry bolte he's behind cole carrague yeah 116 overall like even behind riley green i don't really think that makes a ton of sense given how weird riley green's season was no i have i think he's a 23rd yeah i think the moment
Speaker 4he signs as long as it's not in seattle he he's inside
Speaker 5the top 100 yeah he's a top 100 pick for sure so that is one of the reasons why drafting early makes sense because there are just these little market inefficiencies that happen in these very very early drafts again those were the top
Speaker 410 outfielders from this past season if you want to hear about rankings for next season we are going to do that on fbt express so make sure to tune in there and we are going to wrap there for scott and chris i am frank thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on apple or spotify and we will be back again tomorrow we'll see you then bye paramount podcasts
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