Speaker 1Instead of a $2.54 max, you could play a $20 five max. Oh, but the first prize sucks. What is it? Oh, it's $1,500. All right, how many times have you won $1,500 on DraftKings? Well, never yet. I'm still trying. All right, then you should be ecstatic about the potential of that prize. And you might actually have a shot at winning that prize. And then, by the way, how much would $1,500 mean to your bankroll? Well, that'd be massive. I could take $500 out. The wife would be so much happier. And I'd leave $1,000 on there to play. I could cover the rest of my season with it. These sound like phenomenal things. Why are you not putting those on a pedestal and making them as good as like, yeah, obviously, we all want to win a million bucks. But a lot of people get hypnotized by the prize, right? First prize, whatever it is, I got to play that because it's such a good prize pool. I got to get or the structure. It's such a good structure. All right, how have you done in these structures in the past? Well, horrible. But this week, though, man, I'm feeling it. Okay, these are not good strategies or good thoughts.
Speaker 2All right, guys, thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. And jump around if you like. And if you want some tools like an optimizer, ownership projections, anything of that sort, which are completely customizable, 444.com slash Mayo gives you access to all of the tools. Plus, you will get 25% off. So that's always a bonus when you get 25% off. Tambo, what have you learned over the past 20 or probably say 24 months, 12 months since we lasted this show?
Speaker 1It's just about NFL DFS lots. But if it's about other things, even more. But I will say it's good to be back, Pat. You know, we both love the golf DFS streets. We love the PGA. But there's nothing more fun than talking some NFL, the biggest contest, the biggest prizes. I think there's a ton to change up for this year. I just did a show with Blickle last week where I talked about some of his process changes. But I've got some, too. And I think in NFL DFS, some of the biggest stuff that we'll probably get to is, you know, week one, you've got the pricing forever. Week two through six, it's kind of like, well, we don't know everything, but we feel like we know something more. And then week seven and beyond, you kind of have actionable, actionable data, all the tools that you talked about, 444 and other places that offer them. So you see that and you're saying, hey, now I can put this. Into work, but also pricing gets tighter. So I don't know. We've got a ton of different directions we can go with this, but I'm amped. I'm excited to talk about this stuff with you again. Yeah.
Speaker 2Coming up a little bit later on, Mike Leone from Establish the Run is going to be on to talk through projections and how his strategy has evolved. I've been doing shows with Leone for 12 years now. So it'll be funny to think back to 2014 when we talked about this and get him to reflect on what he would have done then versus now in terms of constructing lineups. Another high stakes player, just like yourself, Tambo, someone who does this professionally for a living. So I guess. I guess I want to start here. Let's go through the intermediate advance and then beginner level. If someone is new to this, let's say they would have a hundred dollars in their bank roll to start the season. What should they be playing every single week? Should they throw four entries into the Millie maker?
Speaker 1Not unless that's all they want for entertainment. And it's really tricky because everybody does have their own style patent. I understand the, you know, you see a million bucks up top and you say, oh, this is great. Or you see the $5 week one, but they don't really recognize it. Yeah. You've got to beat 860,000 people or whatever it might be. But the one thing. That I see the beginners stumble on the most is not planning for the entire season. And obviously back in the day, you just talk like your Leone talks, who is the man, but you talk about, you know, his, the stuff that he's evolved in, in the Thunderdomes and getting better at his game selection and lineup selection, all that type of stuff. That's more intermediate to advance. The beginner part is though, you got to be in the game. And years ago, people would just say the words bankroll management contest selection. You do have to actually factor that in a lot more now than ever, because people aren't thinking about, okay. There's a classic slate on Sunday that looks phenomenal that I'm going to be getting invested into, but there's Thursday night showdown. I mean, hell they're starting the season on a Wednesday this year. So you've got, you've got to add even more slates throughout the year. And I think people don't realize that they base a lot of what they do off of, okay, this $5 to a million is the dream. And of course it is for all of us, whether you're beginner, intermediate or advanced, but in reality, you have to have the bankroll alive in week 10, if you want to pay that thing off. So I think a lot of people really need to look at spreading that a hundred percent. I mean, if you have the $100 out, can you reload it? If you only have the hundred bucks, I mean, you gotta be playing like 10 bucks or less. Like it's just the way the variance works, but I get it. Most people have more than a hundred bucks. So fire away and then put in another hundred the next week. I would not be playing just those lotteries though. I'd be looking at some of the $12 single entries, the $5, three max. I'd be trying some of the satellites, even though they're winner take all, they are smaller fields and they could get you into a spot that could really boost your bankroll. So there's just a lot more to it, Pat, than just saying, you know, keep your hundred bucks and spend it. Wisely. You got to think about what you're doing for the whole season.
Speaker 2So when I started doing golf, I still have held do this at the same time. Anyway, it's just not that I would max the $5 contest with 150 entries, but if I wanted to learn how to play 50 entries or 75 entries, that's the contest that I would pick. I didn't go to the, I mean, for a while when I started to try out the 150 bills, I played the 50 cent for a while just to get my footing underneath me, because if you're someone who throws in three lineups a week or five lineups a week, going from five to 150 and trying to figure out. How all of that works and trying to get the proper balance and try to attack it from different angles and build sets of lineups that are completely different, but maybe create the same theme the entire time. You don't want to waste all your money doing that. If you can play in some of the lower stakes stuff, when you first started, did you play primarily the lower stakes stuff where you were like, oh, I'm Tambo put me in the 4,444. Watch out for me.
Speaker 1The thing about going back as far as we do, and you go back much further than I do, but just noting it, it's all documented, so you can't really lie about this stuff. I definitely lost the hard way. You know, we all call it tuition now, I guess, in a different world. So I was playing like, not crazy, Pat, but I was playing the $25 and I was the like six to eight entries, like a couple hundred bucks, throw it in, right? You get eight lineups for 25 bucks a piece and you play your 200 bucks and you call it a day and see what happens. I lost over $5,000 before I ever hit, but then I did hit for 25,000. So I was like, you get the five grand back and now you've got a bankroll to work with. So I'm not the deposit a hundred bucks and never look back guy like so many people say, or claim they are. I don't know if that's true or not, but my stuff's documented for sure. I definitely lost over five grand before I ever won. One key point though, I do want to note that you did mention there, and this advice has not changed over the years is the 50 cent tournaments, the dollar tournaments, the 25 cent tournaments. If you truly only have a hundred or honestly 200 to 500, like let's just say it is a really like a much smaller bankroll. That's where I think like the $12 single entry should be your treat or the $5, three max should be your treat. That's where it should be. You're not going to be winning those tournaments because none of the pros or players with experience can play in those tournaments. That advice has not changed. You will get better opportunity in those tournaments for EV when you get into them.
Speaker 2So for me, and I've been playing on DraftKings now since 2013, so yeah, 13 years, I'm around a break even player. I've had some good years. I've had some bad years. You know, we've sweated stuff out on this show live and it's like, oh, Pat wins 20 grand. This is great. That did make up for an awful lot of losses along the way, but I've never really changed my bankroll outside of the very first time that I hit big in a golf tournament in 2014, I want to say, maybe 2016, whatever the hell it was. Whenever Satashi Kodaira ended up winning the RBC Heritage, all of a sudden I had 25 grand in my account, thought I was a big man, instantly dumped back like five of it the next week. I was like, all right, let me cash out my money here. Let's not, I'm not good enough. I know I'm not good enough and I understand what my expectations are is I like to play a lottery. I'm not doing this professionally. I talk about, you know, piece of the pieces of this. Just to talk to players like you, that's what I do professionally. Talk to the people who do do it, but I usually play between like 400 and $700 a week and frankly, I rarely play. I might throw a team in the millionaire maker just for kicks because it's fun. I know that I'm probably lighting that money on fire, but generally the way that I played it last year and I had a slightly up year last year, it was slightly up, slightly down, somewhere around breakeven, just had a few bad weeks, few good weeks and that was the entire year. No big hits, but a lot of treading water. I generally max out the 10 max. I like that tournament. I play in the four max 250 and I play one entry and there's a three max 150 tournament that I play one entry and that's usually my entire week now.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think everything you do is okay and I think like there's nothing wrong with what you're saying there. And again, you've already already recognized and obviously been documented on these very shows talking about who you are as a player and why you play that way and how you think about it all. But I think one thing you're discounting about yourself and you know, I'm not here to sugar coat you. We've had our back and forth. You know, I'm not here to say it though. The one thing I think you're really good at is recognizing like it's not an intuition or a gut feel, but I think you don't even recognize that you do sort of pick through your lineups and you get a feel for which one is the, if I only had one lineup. And what I mean by that, because you've done it with king of the beach back in the day when it, you know, things like that, where you've got satellite wins and stuff like that is you still do usually pick a lineup or say like, okay, but this is the one that I'm going to war with in this way. And I don't think enough people do a good job. I also think something that's changed quite heavily over the years that people haven't accounted for. And I talk about it over at DFS mastermind.com is single entry versus one lineup. And the difference is a single entry contest is one where everybody can only put in one. It's usually a capped field, smaller field versus your lotteries, better payout structures, et cetera. They're great to play in. And it doesn't mean your single lineup strategy can't be used in single entry, but it's saying there's a big difference, Pat, between playing the. $50 single entry and playing the $55 with 20K to first where everybody can have 50 teams and you're just playing one in that. I think you do a better job than you give yourself credit for of picking that one lineup. Doesn't mean it's always going to work, but you're saying you are practicing that without even really recognizing it. And that's important, especially if you get satellite tickets into some of these bigger events where you need to be able to say, okay, I've got one 333 ticket this week. Everyone can play 28 of them that max the tournament. I'm only going to have one. You don't want to be playing a similar lineup to what everybody else is playing because all those with 28 lineups have you covered three to five times, if not more on that lineup. So you almost want to have inverse correlation that goes against what everybody else is doing while not doing it in a completely stupid way. That's what I would say.
Speaker 2Well, I've had success in the winning tickets from satellites of coming first of 78 or first of 110. I've had success with that. But most of the time, if you look at my results from those tournaments, I'm 119th of 120th. But that is kind of what you're saying is that generally if I can get into it deep, I usually come out very much near the top. And this is a mistake that I made when I qualified for the 4,444 for the Masters this year is I basically played a cash lineup and I didn't cash. Like, I don't know. I know what I was thinking. I was like, man, this is like a free. I got in here for 75 bucks. Even if I am in cash, this is going to be awesome for my bankroll. So that's how I played. I did not play. I didn't play to win like I normally would. Generally, you very rarely see me min cash any tournament.
Speaker 1Yeah, you nailed a statement there that's so important. And I hear this all the time from beginner to intermediate players, actually. Like even people that are treading water and playing good and having some hits here and there, 5K score, $1,000 here. Like they're hitting some. But what you just said is your attitude was I got it for a $75 ticket, which you should stick with that attitude further and say that didn't get you a 4,444 ticket. Factually, it did. But that ticket is worth $0 until it cashes. So continue to play it like you got it for $75. And most people win the satellite, win or take all, where typically win or take all, where it's first or last. You play it. Like you said, you're 119th and don't get the ticket or you're first and get it. But you need to bring that same mentality across into the tournament you're playing because it's not worth $4,444 plus unless it cashes. And you got to get it across that next line. Otherwise, it's worthless. And that's what typically happens. To people, they win the ticket and then they don't have a strategy to cash it. That's why I said focusing on single lineup is important. Even if you're playing 20 max a week and you play the $3, 20 max, your budget's 50. But you say, I'm going to pony it up and play 60 every week because I'm just going to do that. That's fine. That's fair. That's good. You should still be picking a lineup out of that 20 to have yourself ready. Or if you got a single, a single lineup spot and you should think about your lineups that way. Even if you're not playing it in anything and you're just circling it on paper beforehand, it's what? What process led you to believe that's the one lineup you would play if you were going to war in a tournament like that? Otherwise, what's your strategy going to be when you do get a ticket for those events? For most people, it's that they don't have a strategy and that's why they get punched in the face. You know, Mike Tyson, everyone has one until they get punched in the mouth. Well, you're definitely getting punched in the mouth if you have no strategy going in, then you're in big trouble.
Speaker 2The other big thing that I found out is what I'm good at, what I'm not good at. I am good at DraftKings, nine person salary cap format from the, the early slate and the late slate. I am not good at Showdown. I am horrible at Showdown. Even like when I run optimizers and try to enter a hundred lineups or whatever, that's not what I like to do anyway. And maybe that is a part of it. Just I'm horrible at Showdown. So I simply stopped playing Showdown. That was very profitable for me because I wasn't just losing all the money I may have won that weekend. But I think there are other people that might not even play main slate anymore because they are so good at Showdown and they've picked that lane. I think you should pick your lane. I know. I know that you play at all, but you're also good at it all. But I'm sure there are certain things that you feel like you're better at than you're not. Certainly.
Speaker 1And I do it actually, Pat, through sports. I think that, you know, one thing you said there that is so critical is you shutting it down is typically better. Like I will say, I mean, everything's different in life, but like people that don't want to get golf lessons and then continue to suck at golf and get mad about it. It's like, you could fix this. You could sign up, pay instead of your next greens fees, you could pay to go get golf lessons and get better. People don't do this or want to put the work in. And I get that. Like the easy button or just don't have the time or whatever it might be. So shut it down. If you're not good at it, I will say NFL showdown skews very reg and pro heavy. So the pros win at it because there's still, there's definitely edge in NFL showdown. If you're not studying it, working on it, getting better, you're going to be behind. That's what we work on. That's what I work on all the time. And that's why I love that game. But for yourself, being able to shut it down is important for some. It's important to know your sports. And it's funny because some people are really good at sports that they would never, like there's people that are good at MMA, NASCAR and say golf. And that's their three main sports, but they suck at golf. They definitely don't drive in NASCARs and they don't fight people, but that's just their best DFS sports. Other people think it's like, oh, if I know the sport, I better stick to it. It's not always the way knowing the players can help for sure, but it's more about the process, building the lineups, all that different stuff. So for you shutting it down on a certain game type is just as important for others, shutting it down on a sport type, but you can get better if you put the work in.
Speaker 2Sure. And I don't, it's not that, it's not that I don't have the time. I just don't care enough about showdown to get super invested into it. You know what I'd rather do? Throw together an underdog entry on a Thursday night football game or bet a first touchdown score to get my like 33 to one type juices flowing.
Speaker 1Exactly. And that's why there's other opportunities. That's why these things exist. That's why people marry them together. Some pick one, some pick both, some do all, but I'm saying like, that is the angle you have to think about it from. For me, there's not going to be any underdog parlays or things like that, that are open to me to be able to get a hundred K score that night. That's going to be, you know, like a showdown slate where I can put up for, you know, again, to each their own, but whatever you're putting up, as long as it's affordable for you and you know that you're playing the long game, I'm going to be more live to win in that. And six figure scores plus in that, then I am anywhere else I can get really. So that's why I'm playing those games. But to your point, if you have other ways to get action in on those slates, keep that in mind, utilize it. And then you save that bankroll for the classic slates that you feel better about. No different than you should be skewing your, your classic slates based on how you feel. If you think week one is a chalk fest because pricing has been out for a month and a half. And you're like, well, I don't even like week one that much, but then why are you jamming half your season long bankroll into week one? Just because the contests are good. Why don't you save it for a week? You always know you're better week seven and beyond because the data is there and the pricing gets tighter. And that's just fits your game better. Save your money for those weeks. That's what I would suggest.
Speaker 2NFL season means daily fantasy, betting season long fantasy, and four for five, four has the tools to get you that edge. Get their lineup optimizer, GPP and cash picks ownership projections and leverage scores all for DFS. Plus betting tools that cover props, sides, totals across the NFL and more. Plus a discord. Get the data you need before you build a lineup or place a bet. Save 25% off on any subscription with promo code Mayo at four for four.com slash Mayo. Do it. I started taking creatine because I'm working out consistently. And if it's something I'm going to use every day, I want to know I'm actually getting the highest quality product. You should too. That's why I use and you should momentous signature spec creatine. Creatine is already one of the most research supplements out there, supporting strength, power, lean muscle growth, recovery, and health, even cognitive performance, which in my elder age, I actually need at this point, but momentous has taken the, the quality side to a whole nother level. Signature spec. Creatine is manufactured in a pharmaceutical facility using reverse osmosis, water purification. Yeah. And put through an expanded six stage testing process with four independent agencies. That means 10 times fewer impurities, tighter, heavy metal limits, and plus P F a S and microplastic screening, all great stuff. And the ultra fine powder actually mixes easily without those gritty clumps that you see those weirdos, the gym have. So it's simple for me to work it in to my everyday routine. That's the momentous standard tribe momentous signature spec creatine at live momentous.com and use code Pat Mayo for up to 35% off your entire first order. That's live momentous.com promo code Pat Mayo for 35% off. So I actually did some homework for this show, which I know is shocking to both the audience and you and Jared and everyone listening to this. Okay. So I actually did some homework for this show, but I went back and I looked at my results week one. And then like the first five weeks of the season, the next five weeks, the next five weeks. And you and I were discussing this briefly before the show. I am awful at week one NFL, and I'm very good at weeks like two, three, and four before, as you kind of mentioned before that data catches up to everyone. I feel like I'm very good at adjusting to the new prices and the new information that we have before the actual data. People can really start to trust their process a little bit. Once the process can be trusted with a lot of these numbers, all of a sudden, any sort of advantage that I feel like I have and the results will show it just goes completely out the window. I'm like awful in week 10, but in week two, I tend to win. See,
Speaker 1that's hilarious because I was telling what I was telling you and what we talked about offline. We'll talk online now is my, the joke has always been with me. And even last year, it was legit the week I said, it's like, Oh, it's week seven. Now I'm going to start winning because now that we have data, it's not just the data, but it's also the fact that the pricing gets, um, starts to tighten up right in week one. When I don't last year's thing, was it like a Buka? Was Egbuka, sorry, like, I think it was 4,500 or 50. It's just insane pricing. You know, this guy's going to be $2,000 more assuming he is who he is and things go that way. And it happened, but that's the difference in week one and week seven. Now he's at that price and people have to figure out more. I think the more you go like week seven and beyond, it's not just all the data you have. It's also the roster construction, composition, things that you can think about differently about building lineups and less about the picks and the plays and more about the actual process. But I'm curious, like you just added a couple of points there. What else do you think you do in weeks two, three, and four? Like how do you consider the data in your mind different than other people consider it?
Speaker 2Well, I think I view it more from a layman's standpoint rather than someone who's going to run quant analysis on everything. Like I talk about this with Pizzola a lot, like Pizzola in terms of his betting model, like the more information he can throw into that betting model with a closer period of time, the better it's going to be. But from week two, he's only using last year's data. I feel like I have a very goldfish memory with a lot of this stuff that while I can recall certain things that have happened throughout the course of the years on a certain week in a certain play, when it comes to me building lineups or trying to bet props or whatever it might be, I feel like I'm far, I'm on the very high end of the spectrum of people who are willing to believe what I just saw. And a lot of people, a lot of the time, oh, this guy who had a good week one went up $2,000 in price. I'm not going to play him. It's like, well, this is just the new normal for this year. We see this happen every year. Why don't we just believe it? And you end up getting the best play on the slate at like 3%.
Speaker 1Yeah. Meanwhile, the guy that, you know, had the huge game last week that barely his price moves, they're like, oh, well we got to play him again. He's definitely scoring three touchdowns again. It's like, that doesn't happen very often, but now that guy's 40%. So that makes a ton of sense. That's all I wanted to ask you. Cause my, my takeaway was it on, it was that I need to start doing that more. And I think part of the part of my process issue, Pat talking like weeks two through six was that I would almost treat it the same way I treat every other week. And so I was focused more on roster construction and you and I have talked in the past about building out a parlay, you know, like you get a quarterback, two wide receivers, a run back, you get a running back across from a tight end and a secondary stack, a running back with a defense boom. You got like a three game parlay with a one-off or something, but in weeks two, three, four, five, even six, you still have that softer pricing and some different thoughts. Like you just put out of like why someone could just be the guy now or why someone might not be that guy just a week after he did it. It's like, well, that was because of this, like we're doing golf all the time. Like, yeah, but he gained two and a half strokes. Around the greens and three with the putter, he could do good again with that stuff, but I don't think he's going to do that. It's kind of like how you can view it in football. I think that might be part of what's coming across for you, but I think putting together these crazy, I'm not saying don't, uh, I'm definitely not saying don't stack or don't correlate. I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying some of the one-offs you don't need to over correlate. You don't need to over mini stack or do all that stuff when there's still really soft prices out there, because the point would be, there's probably still 15 to 20 value plays at wide receiver that are viable in week two versus week seven. You might be like, man, who is the value play this week? I can't even find one. And it gets harder as the season goes on sometimes if there's not, not as many injuries and things like that. So that's something I'm
Speaker 2working on for weeks two through six specifically. Well, you know how much I love to throw absolute jabronis into my lineup at wide receivers. Like, Oh, a $3,300 wide receiver. Yeah. You could score like 20 points for me, throw him in and then figure out the rest.
Speaker 1Darius break the slate and baby, we were first. That's an example from last season, when we did the shows and, and, you know, we've done in the past, at least I can't remember if that was even last two years, they blend together. That was two years ago, that one, but we've definitely done that weeks in both PGA and NFL, where we just say, Hey, we're going to roll with this because if this, then that in NFL, that can be huge because that, that value play comes through. It's not just getting the 20 points from them, but it's what do they do for the rest of your lineup? And now you're on a stack that others can't get to, or you're on two high priced running backs when most people can't get to that this week or whatever it might be. So it can really change your roster construction and your, your composition as a whole, really when you're
Speaker 2building it out that way, which can be powerful. So with week one in the pricing, having been out for so long, everyone knows who the good plays are already. We're not here to talk about that. We will talk about that as we will every single week on the weekly drafting show. We break down the pricing, but I haven't really felt like if you've been scanning it, you're like, Oh yeah, that guy's now hurt. This guy's a great play. There's going to be very consolidated pockets of chalk. So for week one, since I lose every week in week one, can you tell me what to do?
Speaker 1Yeah, I think we all do. It feels like, because it just, again, it just becomes a bit more of a variance fest, but obviously the best contest going. And I love that about it. And it's not like you can't, it's so what we're going to talk about now, I would say is one thing that's really been helpful for me to think about that. I'll just, you know, throw it out there and I'll give like a little example from this year, because just when I saw, I think like Bucky Irving is $5,700 going against Cincy. There's already shows and YouTube videos and people mentioning different things about different players, but like, he's just one that I thought of that popped up. It's a lot of times in week one, Pat, people are in the right spot on the wrong pieces. And so something like, again, we talk about this every week. You can get leverage anyway. Let's say week one, people are on Gentee. He's another guy too cheap. They'll pair them with the Raiders defense. Forget who they're playing, but it'll make sense. I already saw it. Well, what if it's Bowers week and no one is really on Bowers at $6,900? Well, that's a prime example. It's like everyone that has Gentee is going to be pissed off and it's not some magic eight ball or whatever you call it, I should say, but it's like magic eight ball might get you there. But I'm just saying the crystal ball is not what people have. It's just, it's natural leverage that's built in. And the concept would be that like a lot of people recognize good matchups for teams and they just end up in the wrong place. So I don't think you want to build like extremes in week one. The good chalk is oftentimes the good chalk, but sometimes it's not the good chalk play. It's the good chalk game, or it's the good chalk matchup of not, um, position versus position, like running back versus defense. It's saying like, it's this team versus this team. They're probably going to beat up on them. That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be the running back that gets the job done for them. It could be two Bowers TDs instead of two Gentee TDs on the one yard line just works out that way. And then Gentee's 35% owned and Bowers is 5% owned because he was too priced up and everybody had a value tight end that they liked.
Speaker 2I want to run through some positions and just general rules of thumb. Obviously the pricing in each slate and the amount of money that you're going to be getting is going to be is really going to throw a monkey wrench into a lot of this, but general rules of thumb for each position. I feel like running back is a pay up position. And even if you get one of those weeks where the starting running back becomes available and they're like $4,400, just always play that guy. It doesn't matter how old they are. Just figure out the rest and the rest of your lineup.
Speaker 1Yeah. Both of those are really strong. The pay up running backs is oftentimes like pitchers and MLB DFS. So for any intermediate or advanced or people that just play that sport, it's like, you don't really want to get too much money. You want to get a lot of money. You want to get a lot of money. With that stuff very often, like you can try your, I'm going to play a Monra at low own instead of Gibbs at chocolate. Yeah. You can, you can get away with all that stuff, but typically like Gibbs is going to get the touches and you're pissed off later on when he's 30%, you're watching him get that 90 yard touchdown and you're like, Oh, there it is. So, and he still has half the game to play. So that's the type of setup I see with running back. I will add some 20, 26 quick notes. One is that people are still pairing up the running back with the defense almost too often. And it's actually steaming it now. So like I use that gentee example, why would the Raiders be popular? I don't know, but I'm saying like, that will be a thing. People start telling the story and then you not only get gentee at a big ownership, which is maybe fine, but I'm saying it's then you bring the defense along with it. So now that pairing becomes too much, almost too much as a whole. And people don't flip it enough. And I'll use an example from last season. We had the Browns versus the jets. Everyone was on Brees hall and the jets. It was like 20% Brees hall, 18% jets. And then the pairing of them together was so high, obviously, but the flip side was Judkins and the Cleveland D and it wasn't like they were going against any better quarterback. It was still a one and a half point spread. The other side pack was 3% and 1% and went off for 40 points. So it just, the flipping the build made perfect sense in that instance. So you can like double leverage it of I'll do the same thing you're doing, but I'm also in the pairing, but I'm also going to flip it on the other side of the game. And then you really get a leg up on the field that way.
Speaker 2I'm usually good fading the middle tier wide receivers. So that like 55 to $7,000 range, there's always extenuating circumstances with this. And one thing that I will almost never do is pay for the cheap chalk at wide receiver. I feel like that bust rate has to be astronomical.
Speaker 1It typically is, but there's a couple of thoughts I have there. One more on the running back. I'll give, and it goes a pairing with a quarterback and I forgot it. So I don't want to leave it out was not enough people pairing the running back with the quarterback. Like you got to do something
Speaker 2that a lot more that's a under leveraged, but you need, you need to figure out which running backs are actually viable to do that. Like pairing Daniel Jones with Jonathan Taylor kind of does, you know, good. Cause he doesn't catch any passes from Daniel Jones. What you'd want to do is like, if you were playing to it, you could play Bijan in London and leave pits out to create a unique stack for Atlanta in week one. If that's around, I'm not saying to do that, but
Speaker 1yeah, like a lot on pricing and stuff too, or like the dynamic matters for sure. Like if you would be like Hertz and Barkley, they're both expensive for their position. And it's probably going to be a tush push or Barkley more often than, you know, a check down to Barkley and he gets in or something. So like you said, you're not going to want to do that all the time, but like a cheap Tua at 4,800 with a expensive Bijan, that could definitely be unique and do it that way. As far as your wide receiver though, I didn't want to forget that thought was the interesting thing is when the cheap wide receiver value bus, it's like, yeah, that's the obvious like, okay, well, they were 20% or whatever the number is, but what I do don't see enough of is people stacking it like they're using it as the cheap chalk one-off which is even worse because if that player was to get there and actually ends up needed in a tournament we're talking about here we're trying to win people a million dollars it's like if they actually get there like wandale robinson he's not always the cheapest i get that he kind of you know fits in the middle sometimes pat but just noting it it's like if he's 4500 and people are playing him at 20 but at the time jackson dart was two percent what are we doing like you're getting one like great for cash games to fit them in and just whatever happens happens catch the ball land on the ground and call it a day and get touched and it's get a point whatever and whatever the yards are but people aren't pairing it up if he's actually the ceiling out jamis winston might have been one of the games last year with him it was like him jamis and whoever else went along with it my point being people weren't stacking it they were just playing it as a one-off and even if the one-off actually hit the ceiling you didn't have it paired correctly so that's a mistake that people make and then as far as your mid-range goes i think it's definitely slate dependent if you notice everyone's paying up for two wide receivers and down and they're like having to choose a random value sometimes it is better just to sort of go up the middle and find the wide receiver twos for every team that can still could score two touchdowns not saying it's likely but there's very very much a slate dependent thoughts around that type of setup i i would only
Speaker 2want to do that generally speaking like let's say i landed i really wanted to play lamar in week one and who am i going to put him with obviously i have to put him with zay flowers or if i really like rashad baitman or jacoby lane as a sleeper in week one as like a cheaper price player and i put him with lamar it's like well it only kind of makes sense to put andrews or zay flowers with him because i'm building at a stack now so i can land there what i'm more prone to do now let's just use week one as an example right now you have chase and amon raw at 78 and 75 is your two highest owned guys um i don't know whether that's going to play itself out in terms of how it ends up being with ownership let's say that is how it's going like those are the two guys at the top then you'll have your sleepers down the list and there's a five thousand dollar guy oh luther burden turns out he's fine at 5 500 bucks we'll play a bunch of him i am far more likely to say my stand is going to be i am not using amon raw use just justin jefferson at one third the ownership instead even if i like him way less i know that these guys are all around the same certainly makes sense i
Speaker 1will just note on that i'm not saying it's wrong or against it i'm just saying that's that you gave a perfect example of tying together two things i'm not saying it's wrong or against it i'm just saying one what you just talked about one what i talked about earlier let's say bucky is popular and part of it is going to be by the way people putting bucky with jamar chase or something right let's just using a tampa bay cincinnati example well in your example of jamar chase and amon run i don't injuries things like that i get it all i'm just using examples but just putting those into play here if people are going to be on jamar chase and amon raw it makes sense because we're gonna have a ton of wide receiver values that can make that work and we got running backs that are mid-range that are like starting top tier touch running backs etc but you could easily have um a double leverage spot where you get um who's uh since he's running about chase brown yeah right you end up with him who's not jamar chase at a different position and opposite tampa bay running back so it's like you've got that in there and then you could put jameson williams i know there's some injury tags and so i'm just using examples and jameson williams you've now got a more balanced build maybe it gets you up to bowers when everyone has genti but you see what i'm saying is now the people that would have uh tampa bay running back jamar chase uh amon raw and genti you could have yourself like a gibbs uh chase brown you could have brock bowers and jameson williams it's all a lot more balanced but you still are in the same spots everybody else is on week one and you're in guys you're on guys that can get two touchdowns plus to me that's a prime example of how you can flip the build a little bit get some extra leverage and everyone else it's like damn i was in those spots but just on the wrong guys that's like the most common complaint i hear with dfs players all over so that that's a prime example
Speaker 2to rewind it a little bit when i made that critical mistake playing in that masters tournament when i played it far too safe is i wasn't even worried about losing the money i don't know what i was so concerned about like when i put my in retrospect in hindsight being 2020 here that every tournament i play i assume i'm going to lose and i'm going to lose all my money it makes it really freeing when you start to think about it that way and it makes the wins like hey this is great i won now i can cash out some money and i'm good for the rest of the season and play a profit that people have a tough time doing what you just said and actually using real leverage because they're afraid to lose the money once you get over the fact like if the money means so much to you that you can't afford to lose it simply do not play that is probably the best advice i can give you now if you are playing and you're playing 400 to a thousand dollars a week if you're not a professional that means it's funny money for you so just don't be scared to lose it and then you'll
Speaker 1you know if you go to the people that bring 200 bucks into the casino and say like if i lose it i lose it if i win i win but i will not bring my debit card my credit card nothing i'm bringing 200 cash and my id and enough for a few drinks or whatever it is i'm gonna play it i lose i lose i win i win what's that i used to do that yeah but it's nothing wrong with that because this is you're describing you're still that person yeah right a switch would be um you know for me i think i'm gonna win every tournament i'm gonna play to win every tournament and have that mindset of like the i might not win this one but i'm going to win it's just a matter of when and then whatever happens happens we don't control the outcome people sweating the golf shots or the you know this guy gets a 90 yard touchdown in the first five minutes of a slate he's one percent owned i legit don't care because it means nothing yet right the outcome has not been decided but my job my controlling factor is done my lineup's built now there's late swap and different things to concepts to go into it's maybe a little bit different but i'm saying my takeaway would be that so there's there's that angle to it but just in general you know i'm not going to win when you're talking about the tickets and this type of stuff and like people not wanting to take on that risk it's like playing the same a cash style lineup like everybody else the safe route is the worst route because there's people have you covered if i have 150 lineups and you've got one i've got like 10 lineups just like you're one it may not be people are worried about dupes on a classic slate we're not worried about that what we're saying is you probably are boxed in instead of being able to get out of the box you're locked into the box you can't get out you're locked in and that's why a lot of lineups are dead on arrival in these large field tournaments and showdown is a prime example of that like oh i gotta play uh it's a philadelphia slate with the eagles it's like i gotta play hertz or barkley that's it there's legit 10 other plus captains you can play on the slate and those are probably the worst two with one lineup that you could play again slate dependent i'm just saying it's like that's the worst way to think about it but then the flip side pat is the people that are like well you tell me to get different let me put i'm using the last year's stuff but let me put johan dotson in the captain then i'll just do that and then i get every and it's like that's just as bad because now you've obviously i know your rest of your lineup is hertz barkley whoever the top two guys are on the other side and whatever lands on your last one again it's just see how there's two extremes pat and not many people will live in that middle of just not being afraid and being able to lose the money but if you win you might win all the money and that's you only need that to happen sometimes in nfl one time and it could change your life or at least your bankroll for a
Speaker 2long time you talked about the cheaper wide receivers and stacking them up so i wanted to use the example of the nfl and i'm going to use the example of the nfl and i'm going to use the example of valet on the saints because now that jordan tyson is going to be out for eight weeks he's 3 500 bucks could be thrust in the starting role we'll figure out more as training camp goes along but if that ends up he is the wide receiver too in this matchup against detroit in a very high projected game total indoors detroit's defense not the best at the moment still a bit banged up in their secondary not awesome people like tower shock anyway but i could see valet being like oh i'm gonna play goff almond raw and laporta and i can use valet to make the stack pretty cheaper when we're thinking about leverage the best way to play valet if you really do need him is with like shuck and olave and bring gibbs back on the other side or something right that's what i'd be
Speaker 1looking at in week one and that's where again like people say like this is when the million maker lineup hits and they look at it on i do the takedown breakdown show every monday breaking down what people did to win trying to dig in and learn from it and see what we can see and everyone says how did i not get that lineup i had that game that's the exact example you just gave they had it with almond raw on the other side with goff and then i will say this pat this is actually another example so i'm glad you brought that one up if by week one when we get there and this can easily happen by the way you could see where people like hey you know what i like this lineup better with shuck with olave with valet and with almond raw and even gibbs they're gonna put the whole five man in that's when it's actually funny when you can flip it and you're like you know what i'm gonna do i'm gonna go with goff almond raw but i'm also gonna put gibbs and williams or gibbs and tesla or i'm sorry goff and those guys and you have like a four-man um lion stack and then you have olave on the other side you don't even play play the value play on this slate and that can fit there's other cheap running backs there's a flex spot you can put whatever in there's a very cheap defense to boost it so i'm looking at stuff like that when i'm looking at these slates especially when it comes to higher dollar or smaller field tournaments could be both but if i'm saying like someone who's like well i don't play the higher dollar you can find a i don't know a $20 five max with 500 people or less you might there might be three percent golf in that in some worlds if he doesn't be the one that picks up the steam i'm just using the flip side of the example obviously if it's shuck on the other side that's a prime example too but you know what i mean you're getting down that's how you get out of the box because now you've got you know three percent of the field is the only people that can get out of the box when that's the stack that's needed and you've got it that's what i'm looking for in these tournaments you're still in the same place but you
Speaker 2- One of the reasons I started playing the, I mean, it's not even like higher, higher dollar, the two 54 max or the one 53 max is those tournaments aren't huge. I'm not playing against 147,000 people where I need to have the perfect lineup. I've made mistakes in those lineups and come second. I've won one of them before. I've come in third, a bunch of times seventh with like two duds in my lineup. It's okay. As long as you're on predominantly the right guys, you can make a mistake here and there and still win. And that's, that's much better than having to be perfect. And you're just going to lose every single week.
Speaker 1A hundred percent. That's the mistake that I think another thing just to, to chime in on, like a lot of people look at that patent and say, okay, but you just said 150 to 200 bucks, buddy, or two 50. Right. But you can always go backwards, right? You can extrapolate up or down on that number. And to me, it's like, that's the problem that people have in their mind to Pat, the same people that aren't winning a thousand bucks plus, why are you frowning at, you know, or let's say 5,000 plus to make this better. If you like, they're not winning 5,000 plus ever, but then they're looking at these $20, five maxes that are it's similar. Instead of a two 54 max, you can play a $20 five max. Oh, but the first prize sucks. What is it? Oh, it's 1500 bucks. All right. How many times have you won $1,500 on draft Kings? Well, never yet. I'm still trying. All right. Then you should be, you should be ecstatic about the potential of that prize. And you might actually have a shot at winning that prize. And then by the way, how much would $1,500 mean to your bankroll? Well, that'd be massive. I could take 500 bucks out. The wife would be so much happier and I'd leave a thousand bucks on there to play there. I, I could cover the rest of my season with it. These sound like phenomenal things. Why are you not putting those on a pedestal and making them as good as like, yeah, obviously we all want to win a million bucks, but a lot of people get hypnotized by the prize, right? First prize, whatever it is, I got to play that because it's such a good prize pool or I got to get, or the structure. It's such a good structure. All right. How, how have you done in these structures in the past? Well, horrible, but this week though, man, I'm feeling it. Okay. These are not good strategies or good thoughts. So again, people just aren't realists and that's where the problem lies.
Speaker 2Well, and, and there are sharper tournaments, even at the lower levels than people might think for years, that $9 slant tournament with the awesome flat payouts was like the sharpest tournament around.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think it still is. Again, it's just people like that. It's you could put 150 lineups in that and play good and feel like, okay, at least I'm getting some balanced assortment of my money back. But the reality is actually the average cash in that was like four to five points higher than the other tournaments. So it was like, wow, this is actually a much tougher field than you think. And, and I'm playing it because I feel like, oh, balanced structure. This, I've actually changed my tune. That's another thing. It's 2026 show, but I've changed my tune quite a bit on that. I'll say one. I'm, you know, I'm more than fine with the lotteries because I get like top heavy is how you can make your year, make your, you know, massive bankroll. But hold on.
Speaker 2You have the bankroll to support that though. You can, I know that you don't want to take a bath for five weeks in a row, but you can.
Speaker 1Right. I can't, I mean,
Speaker 2I can't cause that's not what my bankroll has for this.
Speaker 1But you can, if you do what I just said about the first prize thing. So for example, in MMA, there's an $18 with a hundred K people can afford to take a bath in that because it's like they're 18 times 150, but they run a $3, one 50 max as well, which is four 50. Again, everyone's bankroll is different. You might have to go down to the 50 cent version of that. I'm just saying the problem is people only look at the big prize one. You need to stay in your lane. I, you know, it's like when people try and take on mock loving all the time, like, Oh, I want to take that guy down. You literally want to play the guy that his bankroll is based on. Your money and people like your money that he's been doing it for years. I'm not putting him on a pedestal. I'm noting that he's got the money from you, you to cow, all these guys, the top players in the world, the people that keep stepping up to them to just hand them their money. Well, that's why they continue to play and when they lose a ton, you just don't pay attention to that. But it's like when you're stepping up to play against that, you don't have to, you're allowed to avoid them and play different tournaments and, you know, different sizings and all different factors. So it's just by point. It's not just about that. It's that you can drop down and see, you can make mistakes. You can focus on different prizes. People just don't want to.
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Speaker 1It's that's what I'm trying to say. If more people could just think like that, the game would just still be, it would still continue to be exciting for people and all it's just, everyone wants the main big win. We all do, but it's like what I'm saying is so many people have never even tasted the small win. And then they don't realize that until they hit, I was just at the golf world championship. There was a cool story. The guy had got in for five bucks, one into a 400 and something dollar qualifier, flip that into the seat and then had to do the full play in 300 or sorry, 200 to 100, 150 and then gets there. He won $37,000. He was pumped, man. Like he was more pumped honestly than the winner. The winner was pumped and like I was with hanging out with him. He was a good dude. Like I'm just saying, but the guy that won 37,000 was ecstatic. More people need that. And that attitude of recognizing that and it'll, it'll all rub off in the same direction. Pat, what we talked about earlier, it's if you would play like you were just in for five bucks, sometimes that goes better for you as well. But people, they stutter once they see the ticket value or whatever that might be. Like we talked about earlier, it's been a bit of a theme. It really does all come together. But if you just play the game for fun, if you're not playing professionally anyway, and you're like, well, I'm not, I'm just playing for shits and giggles. Then why are you so concerned with the million dollar tournaments and the hundred Ks and all that, that gets you, you could play the tournament. That have 10 K to first with a nice structure, five K, whatever, when a, when a couple of those a year and you've made yourself some really good money. And it's, you know, now you've got decisions that you can make on other sports and other tournaments and next season and so on and so forth. Everybody just wants the money right now. It's the same way when someone finally does win money, Pat, you talked about it yourself earlier. I've certainly been in this pot as well of winning a bunch of money and then giving a bunch back the next night. I've legit seen people win a hundred grand on Sunday and then off of like two grand. And then be in, in for 40 grand on Monday night football, like insanity, right? Like this, this happens though all the time.
Speaker 2- It's not surprising that that is purely human nature. You know what you're on? If you want a hundred grand Tambo, a heater.
Speaker 1- Yeah. - It's never going to stop. - It's not going to stop. I'm going to win it again tomorrow because I just want it tonight. It's like, that's how people see it, but you didn't need 40 grand to win a hundred. You've got it off to just 1800 bucks. I'm just throwing a number out there. I've seen it so many times. Like that one, you, the money you can now play for a bit. You can cash out a bunch. You can invest some, you could pay stuff off. You could take care of your significant other, whatever you choose to do, your kids in this, that, and the other vacations, anything still have a nice bankroll still play, et cetera, et cetera. But way too many people are like, well, no, I just want a hundred last night. Like I'm feeling it. I'm going in tonight, Sunday night football, 20 grand. Oh, that didn't work in for 25. The next side, it's like 45 grand of your hundred over the next two slates. There was no specific edge. It was just ego and just opportunity and the ability to have money at your fingertips so you can blow. That's where the problem lies.
Speaker 2- So let me run this concept by you. And this isn't going to be for everyone because some people don't have the impulses that some of us have. I'm not even talking about you. I'm talking about myself here because I just did a show with Pizzola talking about how to bet on the NFL properly. We talked a lot about bankroll and that and how much to allocate and everything and some of the traps that people fall into. Now, I think I've fallen into every gambling and DFS trap there's ever been because I'm just human and I like to bet and I like to get some money down. And if I have extra money, you know what that means? I'm probably going to bet some extra money. So one thing that I've done for my gambling accounts, my DFS account, my underdog account, is I keep the same amount of money in every week. And I know that some people don't want to do that or need to do that. But let's say, like I said, I want to play optimally $550 a week on DraftKings. That's what I have set aside for the year to play each week on DraftKings. Now, if I win a week, and even if it's not like a big win, like it's not anything you'd cash out, like I go up to like $1,100 or something like that. I almost double my money. I have one really good team. The next week, you can be sure that if I'm sitting there on Sunday morning, I've made my teams for the week. I've done what I wanted to do. I'm in the tournaments I want to. And I go take a shit on Sunday morning. I'm like, you know, there's another $100 single entry I could enter. And just it makes it real easy to click it for you. I need to take that money out and get back to my bankroll so I don't sit there and just donk off $200 a week if I have an extra $200. I might need that
Speaker 1$200 down the line somewhere. Yeah, 100%. Just cashing out in general is obviously a good idea if you can because leaving it on digital money just magically finds a way to spend itself to your point, right? Or like the I always make fun of it. But it's like I'm feeling this lineup. I really think it's just like that's just a random thought. But it's really the fact that 500 bucks coming off of your now $8,000 bankroll, Pat doesn't look that bad. You'll still have 7500 if you just press in on that 555 or whatever. It's like so or you could cash out 5000 still have three grand on there and be good for the next six weeks at least. And depending on what happens in those weeks, and you don't really need to change anything. I don't I don't really like changing much with what I'm doing. So I'm with you. I'm on team cash out. I'm not leaving money on the sites just because of everything. I know it's probably a lot safer these days than it's ever been. But for me that that's just a factor of it. So you're cashing out taking a wire or whatever it might be. And then the other side of it is, you know, if you're you're playing that next slate, I'm not really going up that much even on like 100k score pad for myself. It's like I'll be like, Oh, I'm just going to take a shot on this tournament. That's fine, because you are just treating yourself. But also the other side of it is, you know, the other side of it is, you know, it's like, I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm not going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. I'm going to take a shot on this I'm just saying you're looking at it like, all right, well, I'm going to take a shot on this tournament. That's fine, because you are just treating yourself. But also the the mantra of treat yourself means do it on a slate, you actually should do it. Don't treat yourself to Sunday Night Football when you hate the game, you're not even watching it, you don't care. It's like the worst slate of all time, you just have money, save the treat for when you're actually going to enjoy it. That's the way I look at it. And you get to do your fitness examples of all that stuff. It's like, don't just burn it to burn it, do it for something that's actually worth it. You should do the same with your money and DFS or betting same thing.
Speaker 2I completely agree. And even like, micro examples of this was at Riviera this year during golf when they had the pin placement at the very I think it was the very back of the green, which is like the birdie location for that hole and the books just didn't adjust. And I deposited 1000s of dollars in bet on it and won a ton of money off of it because that was a spot I identified a spot could have been wrong, I suppose. But history was on my side with the conditions were on my side. And it was just simply priced wrong. Now I find that harder to do in DFS that I feel like wow, I got such an edge this week. Watch out for me. I feel like for me with DFS, every week is kind of the same either I'm going to be correct or wildly incorrect.
Speaker 1Yeah, there's certain tournaments that I get it like if you always play the 254 max or the $100 single entry like I do understand that. But people might use my box in box out theory today but like people do box themselves in to a corner there as well. Like well, I'm $100 single entry player. It's like, No, you're not. That's just what you play every week. And well, that's good. I've had pretty good results. And that is good. So I'm not saying don't do that. I'm just saying what here's an example Pat on an NFL week. Someone says it's Trevor Lawrence, or it's Jackson Dart. I just know it's one of those two. I have two really good lineups. But I'm $100 single entry player. So I must select. But guess what? They were accurate. They were dead on Pat. They had the perfect read on the slate. They were feeling it. They did recognize that it was one of those two. And it was both of those two. And oh shit, they're Jackson Dart lineup only did like it had two duds in it. But their Trevor Lawrence lineup was the nuts. And let me tell you how many times I've heard this story off. I had to just play the other lineup. Nothing stopped you from it except your brain. You could have played $250 tournaments, you could have saved 100 bucks from week two when you said it was a horrible week for you or week one when you suck to be able to play $200 tournaments and different styles this week and not have to make that decision and just play your two lineups. So that's what I talk about when I say that it's a huge leak in people's game where they don't allocate for the season. And then they don't act accordingly. Meaning they say they're terrible in week one, but they jam 50% of their season long bankroll into week one. That doesn't add up almost nothing else in life. Would you do that? But for some reason in DFS and sports betting and things like that, people do it just because the event I'll be there this weekend. I better play. Well, okay, you should play. You're going to be there. Enjoy the experience. You like having action down. This is what you do. It's your hobby. I get that. I'm talking about people that usually do 100 to 500. But I'm at the game. Now I'm in for five grand. What are you talking about? Of course, I'm going to put down five grand. I'm here. So you now paid for the experience, paid for the hotel, paid for the travel, did all this stuff, and then jammed five to 10 X what you normally play. Couldn't you have just put the same or maybe double and enjoyed it just as much? Because I tell you, you're not going to enjoy that hotel room very much when you go back down $5,000 and your team lost. That's going to suck. Now we can talk about what you shouldn't be doing and the pitfalls that people fall into how to actually put that into
Speaker 2practice. I do think is a real skill. Like I've told you, like me cashing out has saved me a bunch of money over the years. Me just explicitly saying I am not playing these tournaments. No, if Sander butts about that, this is not what I'm doing. If I win a bunch of money in a week, I have a rule that I will not double the amount that I play from the next week. It needs to be under double what I had in play from a week ago. So following those rules can be tough, but at least if you have a set of rules for yourself, it gives you something to follow rather than be like, yeah, well, I know I shouldn't just be donking off my money here, but screw it. I'm feeling it.
Speaker 1Yeah, that's really what it is. Like I said, obviously you've got to find your own system. And that's what we talked about off the top of the show is like, if you know your year and what you're going to play and all that, like, again, a lot of people plan for the season, but they plan for classic. Then they, then all of a sudden they're a showdown player and they're wondering why by week eight, they have no money left. Well, I guess it was probably those three showdown slates per week that I started jamming two to $300 on and I'm not even good at it or I didn't practice it or get better at it or work on it. So I just lost an extra $900 a week. And now I've got nothing left. So you do need to have Pat, like you said, you need to know your style, know how you want to play, have your own process and then focus on it and do it for longer than a week. That's the other thing. A lot of people flip flop. So they'll come in for a week and say, Oh, I'm going to start the season out light. I'm going to take their advice. I'm only going to play these tournaments that I like. And then week two, they all of a sudden are like, well, three max didn't work in week one. Let me go to one 50 max and try and figure out this optimizer. Well, have you ever used an optimizer? No. So again, people like trench back and forth into different things. And you really got to think about that before you do so. I don't know how else to tell you, Pat, without a sales pitch, but like I said, at DFS mastermind, that's exactly what we talk about. That's what the people are working on within their game is like how to actually get a strategy for yourself. That's what the mentorship program that I do is for with one-on-ones and things like that. So helping people sort of recognize their path. That's what people struggle with the most. It's just no doubt. You just said it. We've talked about it on the show. People don't have any clue. What their path. It's not like Pat, when people say, I want to lose weight. Okay. You got to go to the gym, maybe do some cardio and eat right. It's proven path. Not many people are teaching a proven path or helping people get on the right path on how to do this. And there's not many people that even know what it is. So that's really where this gets tricky. And why I said, it's hate to be a sales pitch, but it really, if you don't know, ask questions, get into community, talk to us on, you know, these discords and things like that, and then eventually get into something. But that is what you need to do. If you want to have an actual plan, you have to have something that's proven already that you can put them into play for yourself.
Speaker 3Jared has a question. Do you think that casual players like don't really understand how in the weeds, like, you know, professional people are like, I was at a casino in Niagara Falls and I went to play a hand of poker 20 bucks. I was like, just for a laugh. And then three guys come up and they're wearing poker stars, jackets, world poker tour or whatever. They put 500 bucks down. I'm like, you know what? I'm going to play blackjack. No, you know, you know what though? I feel like they wouldn't be wearing that shit. That's true. That's true. But like going to like, like I comp that to like the Millie maker, like a casual player like myself, like what are the actual chances I can beat out, you know, a hundred thousand of the world's best players. Okay. So
Speaker 2before you weigh in on this Tambo, I think that you might have it a little bit different because something like the millionaire maker, literally anyone can win. You just need to be the luckiest person on the planet that day. It's like winning a lottery that there is skill to it, obviously, but your skill is going to be a little bit different. Yeah. I think it's, you were going the right direction. I don't know if you went off it at
Speaker 1the end, but I'll just say my thoughts and maybe you can recorrect it, but I'll say like the first part was true is like, that's the difference in the Millie maker. I can have 150, but use the $5 one. There's 860,000 people. It's not making that much of a difference. And honestly, if I had 300, I don't obviously, but if I did, I don't know, that's going to make that much of a difference. It's like, yeah, you could double the line, but you're still up against such a big number. So I don't think people overestimate that to Jared's question originally, but to what you said, Pat, I thought you were going there. Maybe you weren't just said it in a different way, but I'll note it is like, that's actually, I think a bigger issue when people use, it's the old poker one, right? Going back to Jared's thoughts, like, well, I'll just go up to the higher stakes where they'll respect my raises. No, those guys have your money and everybody else like you because they're better than you. And that's why they're all sitting around a table, willing to sit with others that they know don't even need to wear the poker stars jackets to know that they know what they're doing. They literally know them personally and know how good they are. That's the higher stakes of DFS. And that's what ends up happening, Pat, when I said, when people go up to like, well, I'm not winning at the lotteries, probably most of us aren't by the way, just so you know, it's like, or maybe not short-term at least like long-term. Yes. But the short-term stuff, it's tougher. You're not likely to win the Millie this week, spoiler alert, but just noting it when they say like, well, I'm going to go to the $250 four max and just throw a single lineup in. Can you do it? Yes. Our friend, Alex Blickle, great example. He does that all the time, but he's an excellent player. He would be harder to beat if he would just play four. He has success doing it and he's a skilled player, very skilled. So when you go look at that, it's like when somebody else who's beginner to intermediate, who says, well, I'm doing it because it's a smaller field. It is a smaller field. There is still some odds in your favor based on that, but you are playing the best of the best. And you're also probably not even playing good to start with. You're probably playing a lineup that in my four, I might have two that are already the same as yours. It might even be better again, on paper going in, ROI going at things like that, but it doesn't mean it's going to win. There's still variants. I'm just saying now take me and times it by better players and 50 more of them. And all of them have four lineups. And now that's 200 of the four or 500 lineups in the field. And you've got one. It hasn't got as good for you as you probably think, but obviously playing less is a little bit
Speaker 2better for your, your favor because of odds. See, I would push back and maybe I'm, I'm using myself as an, as an example, because I do what Blickle does in a lot of these senses. I play the 150 with one lineup instead of four. I played the 150 with one instead of three in these three maxes. However, where I am not as sharp as most of the people and as good as the people in here, the lineups that I'm putting in, aren't bad versions of their lineups. They're just off the wall different that if mine hit, I do end up doing really well. Yeah, it can, it can definitely
Speaker 1work in your favor. I'm just saying when people are looking at it, like using NFL as the example, and you kind of got, you know, the 18 week regular season, some people write off week one because the pricing's been out for a month and it's tough. And then some people write off week 18 because it's like preseason slate. So it's like, you got 16 weeks to make that theory happen. It's that's where it gets a little bit tricky. All I was saying is from the, the underestimation or the overest or however you want to word it and flip the story. I think people think about that differently than they should. It's like, that's when I said the example earlier with Buck Lovin, when people are like, well, I'm going to go off and play against him. He just plays the chalk donkeys. It's like, he's playing the strategy that's beat the fields that he has to beat forever. And he can outlast you. So even if you get them today, when you come back on your high horse, he probably takes it on the next one. So that's like Jared said with the poker table, 20 bucks to their 500. Jared gets it in. Let's use a hundred just to make it easier. He doubles up to 200. Sweet. They're down to 400. Now he took it off them. They can take it from them. They still got them covered on the next version or the version after that. Like they can still take it from him and get it right back the longer he wants to sit there, but they can afford to sit there longer. So on the long-term game, it's not as good as some might think.
Speaker 2More into projections, the evolution of lineups and the 11 evolution of play over the years with Mike Leone from establish the run.com on part two of the show. If you want to check out more from Tambo ship at nation, obviously. And as he's been talking about DFS mastermind.com, if you want to learn how to play it's educational, there's not, there's no picks at DFS mastermind.com. Tambo is
Speaker 1there. It's how you're supposed to play. Exactly. No picks plays just process. There's a ton of opportunity there. We do a monthly round table Q and a, you can get in that way. It's got a 60 plus hours if you want, but the modules that get people started, the two main things, the main items are my map one and my map two. It's a thousand plus hours of my life and history and experience and everything all jammed into less than an eight hour shift at whatever job you do day to day. So you can watch it in a Saturday and be good to go. Everything is one-time purchase. You could do a split payment if you want it's 50 bucks for the modules, 500 bucks for lifetime access, but it's everything that you would possibly need. If you're trying to go into we cover all sports inside of there and then ship it nation.com for the projections ownership tools, data, et cetera, that we've got just like other sites have out there, but check it out for sure. And always good to be back with you, Pat, especially talking to the NFL. Oh yeah. We'll be
Speaker 2making our picks and building lineups every single week on this show on Fridays. So strap yourself in some of the channels, tell some other people about it as well. But I do want to tell you about four for four.com, whether it be season long betting or specifically for this show, DFS optimizer projections customizable cheat sheets and a discord that you can go through four, four, four.com number four word for F F O R not F O U R. I probably shouldn't have said that now it's hit the description. The link is down there. Code mail, get you 25% off as well. So I highly suggest that you go do that. All right. I'm Pat Mayo. Thanks for watching. I'll see you next time.
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