2026 NFC North preview

Welcome to the Athletic football show brought to you by the US bank smartly visa signature card. I'm Robert Maes today. It's the NFC North preview. One of my favorite shows of the year every year. And today was no exception prime my favorite one that we've done at a lot of juice with this one because it's an incredibly intriguing division. Let's get to it. Me Dave and Derek breaking down the NFC North right now. I've always got a little more pep in my step for the NFC North preview for a few different reasons. It was the first show we ever did on this feed. It was me and Nate Tice in August of 2020, which is six years ago now. It's the first show that ever appeared on the Athletic football show is the NFC North preview. And it's just the division I grew up with. It's the teams I grew up with even when I visit them during training camp. It just feels so familiar and comfortable. There are teams I've been visiting forever. All the people are the same in the background. And so there is a certain level of familiarity, but also excitement every time I get to talk about this division. This would apply to the AFC North too, but I've always admired the geography of the NFC North and how it's really like a close knit division. Like you can get to all of these places in a car. It's further than you think to Minneapolis, the AFC North is much better. It's like eight hours, but it's doable. Yes, it's doable. And I just I love the familiarity. There's obviously there's a lot of people from all four teams here in Chicago. It's just it's a very collegiate division. And it's it's fun. Yeah, you felt that last night when any time we spoke even moderately, positively about the Packers, we were jeered by the crowd at our live show. That's all you need to know about. I mean, if you say anything about any of the non bear's teams in a positive way, except except for. I mean, not I think for the most part that that was true. I think about it feeling collegiate. These are all like the oldest teams in the NFL. Like the AFC North, you got some newer ones in there. The Ravens aren't very old, but like this is truly like this has football since it's been started. So let's dig into it. We're going to start again, we're doing these in order of divisional odds, not in order of last year's finish for this one. It's particularly important, but we're going to start with the Detroit Lions are preview for the 2026 Detroit Lions. They're off season and 60 seconds. You're petting in as the offensive coordinator Cade Maze at center, obviously have lost him for a good chunk of this season already Larry Borum for offensive lined up juice scruggs as part of the David Montgomery trade Roger McCruery Christian is he in Chuck Clark, Rocky Sin and Avanti Maddox, both back DJ one and Ben Birch. Some of those names might be surprising. Like why I would include them. They're all going to be relevant as part of this conversation. We'll get to it. The David Montgomery trade lost David Montgomery, Alkadine Muhammad Taylor Decker, no longer on this team. Amique Robertson, DJ reader, Alex Anzaloni, Khalifa Ahmed, Coyote, I was Sika in the draft. We have Blake Miller in round one Derek Moore in round two Isaac Teslas made up of about five third round draft picks for the course of many years. For each of these teams, we're going to kick things off. What we are most with what we are most excited to see with them in 2026. Derek, why don't you start us off? What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Lions? I mean, the offense is going to be a fireworks show again, because they always are the funniest part about this. We do not share notes pretty prior. I you guys drop an answer in and then I go look at it in my own document. I also said verbatim. The offense is still a fireworks show. So we both independently came to that exact same framing mind melding. And that's what they are. Because even if last year was imperfect, the thing that they were still good at was explosive plays and the best players making incredible plays. Jamire Gibbs was still one of the best backs in the league. Like James and Williams, I think him taking a step almost kind of went under the radar a little bit because I think we just felt not as good about the Lions offense overall. But I he was fantastic last season. I'm going to say Brown is an amazing player. Sam Laporta. I think it's still a really good tight end like this. The collection of offensive talent is insane. The quarterback is really good and it feels more like his offense than it had even when he got there. And so I just have a really really big amount of faith that if last year is the floor where they were still seventh in EPA per play or EPA per drive. I feel pretty good that they're going to be top seven again at minimum and like if things break right they could be the best in the league again. They fired the offensive coordinator like five or six weeks into the season, whatever it is and fire move him to the side. And they still were like a top seven offense by any metric that you want to use that says a lot. I we I drafted on my roster in Brown and the fantasy league that were in the other day pardon me afterwards was like, man, should I have done that. You look at the numbers. Last three years, Ramana Rossing Brown, 119 catches for 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns 115 catches for 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns 1117 catches for 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns. It's pretty good. Pretty solid and consistent. And I think even in a year where it all felt a little bit more unsettled. This was still a very, very good offense. This is the short list of best skill talent in the NFL particularly if Sam Laporta is a healthier or more productive player this year. I mean, of course there are a few teams that could quibble with that but they're on that list of three or 14. It's at least like I think you can make an easier case that it's the most complete to like if you want to say like I'd rather have Jamar Chase and T Higgins plus whatever else like sure. But the fact that they have a guy who is at minimum a pro bowler at every single position and in the case of Jamir Gibbs, maybe the best and maybe the best at his position in the entire league. It's pretty hard to find anything that looks like that when you look at the offense last year, the overall numbers by the end of it were really good and it's that's again, I think part of the reason that you can build this case for optimism. Just putting into some context about why last year did feel a little bit different. We talked about this in the moment, but I think it's worth bringing up again per next time last year, the Lions had eight games with a 40% or lower offensive success rate eight in 2023 and 2024 combined they had six. So even if the heights of the offense were still really impressive, really dangerous, you felt how explosive they could be. It was just so much more up and down last year than it had been at any point. So if they just steady this thing, that's what this is all about. I think we could easily talk ourselves into this being one of the best offensive league again. Yeah, I do too. And again, like who knows exactly how good your passing is. I know that we'll talk about that, but like, again, I'm confident that he's not like get fired in the middle of the season, sort of bad like they had with the Lions last year. And so I feel pretty good about the ship being steady here. We've jumped about it before, but it's fun to look at the Lions and you go into it with misgivings and doubts and concerns. And yeah, they fired their OC made way through last year. I think the real top seven, the defense fell apart again, I should use scare quotes because they finished 11th and defensive DVO way like anecdotally, there's so much reason to think that last year's Lions were not all that impressive of a team, but the data tells you something else entirely. So what are you most excited about? I want to talk about this in greater detail, because I agree with the premise. Are we paying enough attention to what is staring Jamir Gibbs in the face right now, which is a backfield with zero competition for touches. Isaiah Pacheco is on IR anyway to start the season in the year 2026. I just don't think that would have mattered anyway. Jamir Gibbs, the other running backs on this team have 12 career touches between the three of them. He's in line to do all of the work for this team. And it's not just me saying that Dan Campbell used one of my favorite football phrases. There is this summer bell cow. That's what you want to hear. Jamir kit Jamir Gibbs, the bell cow running back as a rookie. He got 45% of the Lions touches and it's gone up every year from there to the point where he was at 63%. That is, I mean, it's a drastic increase. And obviously if you watched the Lions last year, you know, by year three. It was Sonic and Knuckles for two years. And then last year Dave Montgomery was like very clearly the number two guy there. But 63% can still be so much higher. I was curious. John Robinson got 70% of the Falcons touches last year. Christian McCaffrey in 2023 got 70%. I don't know if you could do this to Jamir Gibbs, but last year McCaffrey got 77%. Now it's just, no, I think that's too high. But anything between like 68 and 75%. I'm really interested to see it. And if that happens, if the, if Drew Petsing is good at his job and if the offensive line tweaking works, the cave maze thing scares me a little bit. But we'll get to that. Well, and he'll be back at some point during the season anyway. All of that to say, I really think Jamir Gibbs could have like an offensive player of the year type of year. Absolutely. With the, with the amount of work that is there for him to do. And what we know about him as a player. I mean, we all know the statistics, but there's nothing standing in his way from getting that type of workload. And I remember Derek blew my mind two weeks from the end of last year, where he was just like, look at Pajan Robinson's numbers. And tell me we shouldn't be talking about him as an offensive player of the year candidate. Jamir Gibbs has that type of potential and the Lions are going to have a winning record this year. Here's the one other parallel that I would make and we're trying to make a comparison to be Jean Robinson last year. Jean Robinson had 115 snaps in the slot last season. Jamir Gibbs had 45. I think we're going to see Jamir Gibbs do that a lot this year. Okay. Like out of empty or you think they're getting another back on the field or back on the field. Okay. That is the easiest way I can think of to up Jamir Gibbs's production to that level because the receiving statistics are pretty obvious. I think it was close in terms of catches. I think Jamir had like 77 catches on the year and Bajan had like 79. close, but Bigeon did so much more with those touches. Like he averaged a full two more yards per reception than Jameer Gibbs did. So like a better array of ways to use him as a receiver and getting more out of those routes and targets would go a long way without having to change his rushing workload that much at all. I think their mindset is we can't afford to keep him off the field and we have to use him in as many ways as we can. And I think that is often something we hear in August and July is we're going to use more pony personnel. We're going to do more two back stuff with them. I truly do believe they're going to try it. Who will pass protect in those situations? I think becomes the question because in my mind, it is in like, I'm like third down. Because if you're thinking about this team on third down, I think we'll see a lot of 12th personnel with this team with Brock Wright and Laporta on the field. But that's look at Drew Petsing's history. But if it's third down and you're going to be in 11 or you're going to 11, if you're going to have three players who are not tight ends on the field in some capacity as receivers, right now. Don't you think there's a scenario where you're best three players in that spot? Are Jameer Gibbs on my roster in Brown and James and Williams? I mean, outside of maybe the red zone, I think that that's absolutely true. Unless I want to just throw up like a fade to Isaac to slot, like I would much rather have Jameer Gibbs on the field. And even then like some of what he can do in like on like option routes and stuff like in the red zone, like beating up on my backers and stuff, like maybe that actually even is better than whatever you might get from to slot. And there it might be a situation where you don't feel at comfortable enough about what you're getting in the past protection from some of those other guys. And so you back off it, but I'll say it's on their minds in terms of how they could potentially make that stuff work. Let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season with the Lions. We're going to hit this for every single team just a curiosity. You have something that is a lingering question that you want to answer on early in the year. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What is your what are you watching the first month of the season with the Lions? I mean, to me, it's just how many of the young offensive linemen either take a step or in the case of Blake Miller, who we haven't seen really play NFL football, are good at all. Like I think Christian Mahogany, I think I probably feel the best about him of the three right now, just because I think when he's been out there, I think he's been pretty decent. Tate Ratledge, the power is insane. He also still, I think, is a little bit like heavy footed at times. And I'm wondering like how well he's able to. He's a stiff player. He's a little bit stiff. Like he's just explosive, but he can be stiff. You're just hoping that almost like he really is like the story of the entire offense. If the floor can just be raised a little bit, his best stuff is truly like opens up touchdowns sort of rushing lanes for a guy like Jamir Gibbs consistency. It's consistency. It's just like finding a consistency in year two 100%. And then Blake Miller, I'm really excited to see because you know, Taylor Decker, I think, was was pretty tough for this team last year, but Blake Miller is unbelievably talented. Like his, just to me, the balance that he plays with is like unbelievable. There are even if you're just watching the preseason, there are a handful of reps in every game where for the first second, it looks like he's going to get beat so bad that he looks undrafted. And then he just recovers and wins the rep and you're like, that doesn't seem possible for anybody to do. And so if he's then, you know, by the end of the year, putting himself in fewer losing positions, it's like, I don't know, man, he might just end up being a really good player by the end of this. So I'm excited for him. I think we understate how diminished Taylor Decker was last year without shoulder. He dealt with it the entire season. He just wasn't right. And so even bringing in a rookie so often, we see a first round pick and we just immediately bake in. Oh, this is going to work. But for the Lions, I actually don't think it's unreasonable to think with, and I still move into the left and bring Blake Miller and their tackle play will be better. Like full stop than it was last year because of how banged up Decker was. And based on the early returns, they're really happy with what they've gotten from Blake Miller. I feel like there are two things to jump out. One, he's just a smoother athlete than I think they expected him to be based on what they had seen on tape. And the other part is that some of that stuff you're talking about him getting in bad body positions. It was worse in the spring and has improved where he's oversetting a little bit and just getting a little antsy. And you've even seen some refinement and improvement over the course of one single off season. They feel very good about the tackles. The interior stuff is the question because you mentioned Christian Mahogany. Christian Mahogany wasn't even penciled in to be like the definite start really by the middle of August. Okay. I think he probably will end up getting that job and Parkus Ben Bartsch was banged up over the course of the summer. But I think they were ready for that to be a real battle between those two guys. Interesting. That was going to be one of my mini what's keeping me up at nights. Is there a scenario where if Kade Maes does not come back in short order, the interior of this line isn't that much better than it was a year ago because that's nightmare fuel. Based on what you wanted this to be after drafting Kade Maes and hoping you were going to get real step-ups from the two young guards. And I probably am hand-waving it a little bit because when the Kade Maes injury happened, you started hearing like week six or whatever it was like mid-October is the time table that I'm working with right now. And that sounds great, but you can't completely take that at face value. And if you don't have him for longer or God forbid, if he's diminished because of the injury or needs time to get up to speed, I shouldn't, I should not be hand-waving the interior of the offensive line. It's definitely something worth being concerned about. I think the way I framed it as a worst-case scenario, I think I expect Rauge to be better. I do think Scruggs, I think Klaska just never wanted to play center. He just, I think they did that because they didn't have an option. That was a, we are pivoting to this because we lost Frank Ragnar. They wanted Rauge to do it. They tried to get one out and four. And then Mahogany just was banged up and just never found himself. I thought I've seen enough flashes from Mahogany to still have a candle lit for him. I just background to do better. And so overall, I do think the interior will be significantly better, but that's one of those like dreadful things. Where if we're just going through the season, does it feel different than it was last year? That could be a tough reality if you're a lion's fan. The other thing that I, that I know when I look at this is, and I love the juice Scruggs trade, we talked about it at the time, their depth is better. It's already being tested before the season is started. And unfortunately, you can't predict what else might happen. And they're already thinner than they were supposed to be heading into week one. I'm going to take the offensive line point and just take it a little bit broader. I'm just curious what the Drew Pets and version of this offense looks like. We don't need to completely rehash it now. If you want to go listen to the new play callers episode we did about the slate of new guys are going to call it offense as a defense is we really dug into it. But he learned all the lion's language. He's going to come over and run an offense that has much of the same DNA for what we've seen from the lines over the last few years. I anticipate some tweaks, we went, we mentioned it in the moment. This was a team that did not, the Cardinals were not a team that ran a lot of like outside zone compared to the averages. They were down near the bottom of the NFL. I think we'll see more gaps came runs because that's what Pets and does. I think we'll see some more, the return to just play action overall. Like last year, the run action rate for the lions went from 66% in 2024 was the highest in the league and the highest in the league over the last two years to 57% to 10 percentage point drop 9 percentage points from one season to the other. Why? Like that's what the student does. Like putting them in scenarios where you're just letting Jared rip in breakers off play action. That's what they do well and that's what Drew wants to do. And so I anticipate a return to that because this is a really good play action team. And I think it just be about the running game getting back to where it was. Porture media 26th in rushing success rate last year, the Detroit Lions were 26. They were 25th in first downs per rush. They were third in rushing success rate in 2024. Some of that is offensive line diminishing and some of that is Ben Johnson. And so can we get back to a place where this is definitively a top 10 rushing offense in 2024. They had 82 third and seven plus situations all year. They had 103 of them last year. They had the lowest yards to go on third down in the NFL in 2024. So just even if the offense overall was still a top seven unit, these are the things that over time just start to pile up and make it a little bit harder, making you feel like you're fighting a little bit more against the current and the way that the Lions were pretty often last year to bring it back to Gibbs his down to down rates are not good. They were back all the trees. They were really back. It was all explosiveness that made him a great back last year. And so that's a big part of my argument as well as if you can get back to some consistency in the run game in addition to what he does as a game breaker. It'll make a huge difference. I do have some numbers on it. The Lions were 40% outside zone team last year, person response numbers. The Cardinals were at 9% dead last. And so where they fall between those is going to be really interesting. No team ran more counter or lead pull plays than than the Arizona Cardinals last year. And so we'll see. I think it'll be a grabback in terms of the run game. And it should be a mix. And I think, you know, part of why the Cardinals were able to do that was they had a center who was really good at doing that. To me, that's not as much as scrubs this game. But if they're trying to do a little bit more, just like you get the guards on the move. Yeah, which is good. Rattledges a good athlete. And I think even if you're running power to his side where he's throwing the down block, well, shoot. Yeah, he's really, really good at that too. Like, I think where you see some of like Rattledge lumbering is when he's like convoying and then trying to get to a linebacker. That's not what he does. But unlike power, like there's a little bit more of like the whole point is he's just got to knock that one technique or three technique back. And I think he'll be able to do a really good job of that. And so I think a little bit more of punch you in the face run game, I think would probably be pretty good for them. What do you watch in the first month of the season with the Lions? If you're building a front seven, Aiden Hutchinson and Jack Campbell is about as good a starting point as you could ask for what you get from the rest of that in Detroit is I think one of the biggest inflection points of how good this team could be. And so like I said, I mean, building a pass for us out of Aiden Hutchinson, you can do that. That's kind of bit like they've had to do that in recent years. But wouldn't you love to get some help and 40% of their pressures from last year are excused. me, I'm sorry, Aidan Hutchinson and Al-Kadine Muhammad accounted for 40% of their pressures last year. Al-Kadine Muhammad is gone. There's a lot of guys that you feel good about who can help this. But what does that look like in the first month of the season? We talked about Olivia McNeil was was banged up last year. What does he look like this year? Tileek Williams. Apparently very good. Good. Excellent. That to me, it's not that dissimilar to me from the conversation we've been having having about non-many matter BK. It's not dissimilar to me when you just think about what that guy was at his best. That's a really good point. It can be as a transformative piece. The Cardinals played the Lions a couple years ago. And going into that game, the player that drew passing was most worried about in Lions defense was Alim McNeil. This summer during practices, that's what it is felt like. It's good. That guy that we were scared of two years ago, that's what he looks like. And that to me is the most important thing that can happen for the Lions. If that happens, it very drastically changes my opinion of this team because it's huge. If he's that guy, we've talked about Tileek Williams making any sort of year-to-jump and just being somebody that can be part of that. DJ Wannum is just a steady, Eddie good football player. So like if, but if he is part of it with getting that from your defensive tackles, that feels really, really good. There's more in there. Like it just say what Derek Moore is, but you're peace-mealing that other edge spot. But they feel good about the rotation at the very least because that's been a weakness every year. They've already had to do that. That there's it's it's funny when you look at it because they from the outside. You look at that spot and like, oh, this is a need. I think they believe it's in a better spot than it's been over the last like three years. All of that perspective. Yes. They would know. But yeah, so you can't like I said, you can do this with Aiden Hutchinson just sort of holding everything up like Atlas. But you don't want to, you know? And so what are you getting from the rest of those guys? This is also a good place to say. Can we note that it looks like Devon White might be a starter for this team. They should send him 200 times. I mean, that might actually work. Yeah. And like Kelvin Shepherd didn't blitz much last year, but Devon White is really good at that. And assume it's going to be Barnes. Well, how they sort that out too is interesting. Yeah, but like Barnes is weird too, because like you kind of want them on the edge. He is the same. And yeah, it's a bitch. I still like, but I guess you said that. He's been there for a while. It's in my notes too. Like Kelvin Shepherd said it was way back at the combine. But he said they want to play more nickel this year because the lot of have to happen. They played so much base. But like, how do you sort that out with Barnes? Is Devon White actually a meaningful piece of this thing? I'm curious about that. Barnes is making eight million dollars a year. I can't imagine that they're going to keep him off the field for Devon White, even if in theory, he's been more of a Sam that you played on near the line of scrimmage. The nickel thing is 100% has to happen, which let's just transition into what's keeping us up in it. Cause I think we all the exact same answer about that for each of these teams, we're going to talk about just a looming fear or worry that we have about how this could go poorly. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the Detroit Lions this year? I mean, yeah, the secondary, the safeties, neither of them are going to play for the first month of the season, at least in Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph thing. They're both still on IR. They're starting cornerbacks today, according to our lads, Rock Yassin, DJ Reed and Christian Isian, who has played like every position in the secondary for the bucks over the last couple of years. I like Christian Isian. I really like Christian. I think Christian Isian got demoted just because the bucks drafted a lot of good players in their secondary. I'm not saying he's like a footballer or anything, but I'm excited to watch him. He's one of those that like how you feel about the player and the signing changes over the offseason. When they signed him and he to me was going to be their utility off the bench in a pinch guy. I was like, that rocks. I love that. It is a little scarier. I'm like, it's a little scarier when you're in the week one lineup. Yeah. And that's how it is for a lot of these guys. I mean, right now it sounds like it's going to be Chuck Clark and Avantematics at safety and Christian Isian at the nickel. That's just not what the Detroit Lions were supposed to look like on the back end. Well, Avantematics has played nickel for a lot or large part of the handful of pastries. Excuse me. I screwed that up. Well, I think he, it seems like he might start at safety, but he's betting nickel for a lot of times. Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's it. Avantematics and Chuck Clark and then Isian at the nickel. Yeah. But I'm saying, Maddox has been a nickel previously for a lot of other teams. That's where they're at. You just like, throw it out there and see who he sticks like. That kind of does feel like it. And you're talking about nickel or you're talking about nickel compared to base. This team played an incredible amount of base defense last year, 60% of plays. And I think they did that because that was probably their best 11 last season with Amiga Robertson having to play outside as much as it is because Terran was hurt. If you're trying to spend this positively, I think that's what you can theoretically do. Kirby Joseph and Terran Arnold only played 600 combined snaps last year. Like this was a defense that the numbers overall weren't that bad when they were already banged up in the secondary. The Bryant branch part of it is a different consideration. The numbers are not very good. If you look at the stretch where branch wasn't in that. That's the scariest part. But if he can get back by week five weeks six after coming off the public list, can you write the ship enough and have it be similar enough to last year's personnel where the overall quality is similar to what it was last year? Because when you look at the numbers last season, their biggest issue is that they just gave up an absurd amount of explosive place, like an absurd amount of that. So and a lot of that was coming out of playing base defense. They allowed 60 explosive passes playing base last year. No other team in the league. A lot of more than 40. Some of that is volume, just a sheer amount of base that you're lying. But even if you look at other base heavy teams, the Lions allowed an 18.8% explosive pass rate last year in base. The Vikings and the Raiders, both of whom were very heavy base defense teams were at like 13 and a half percent. So they were just getting cooked. There were 73 explosive passes last year in the NFL out of 11 personnel against base defense 73. The Lions allowed 17 of those 73 places. That's sub-scene. I have to assume some of that is volume, but it's still not. Of course, but even it's a quarter of them. But and like I we can say like that's partly volume, but it's like they're playing that way because they felt that that was still their best way to play. And that is still where they arrived with a lot of the explosive. And I just don't think that's going to happen again this year with Antelone out of the picture. And with even if the DBs are all rotational kind of plugging holes and problems, players, they still have a lot of them. And I still think those are pro. That's probably the best way for you to end up playing as a team. The thing that keeps me awake at night is it's similar to the Kade May situation. It's so easy to say hold the rope until Brian branches back and he can be a stabilizing force. He's coming off of the Achilles injury. And I know this year more than any year that apparently doesn't mean anything. Well, it doesn't mean anything for guys practicing. We still haven't seen any of those guys. Well, until week four, I don't know. That's true. We're going to be incredible. Every single guy that just all bitch or pillow, Daniel Jones, everybody that has been practicing for a month and then they play it. It's just like oh, they look awful. You're like, well, why'd they do that? There is a difference. And I'm just not willing to to bake Brian branch playing at his normal level in right away. I hate that because he's one of my favorite players in the league. But I got to see what that looks like. And I think it's more complicated than saying the Cavalry's coming week six because I mean, you hope that's true. It might not be. Yeah. The secondary I think is exactly the answer. And even if they were able to hold down the fort a little bit last season as those injuries piled up and just a play concerns. Terrell didn't play well on top of being banged up for a good chunk of the season. So I think that would be the rationalization cope approach to it. But I still think if you're being asked with yourself, the secondary is the element of this team that should be keeping you up at night. For each one of these teams, we are going to chat about what success looks like. Obviously, it's different for everybody. Derek, what is success for the 2026 Lions? I think just kind of get back to a spot where we don't doubt that you are a pretty regular 10-11 win team because right now I think even if they are technically ahead of the odds, I don't think everybody feels perfectly good that they're a 10 or 11 win football team. The way that we have the last two going into the last two seasons, I think going into 24 and going into 25, everyone was like, yeah, 10 or 11 wins, it's like bare minimum. And I think if they can get back to that spot, the offense feels stabilized with Drew Pettstein and Jared Goff there. I think that to me is success. I think they're in such a retooling period with this defense that they to me are not a like championship contender necessarily right now. So they just get to the spot where we feel really good about them. I think that success. We had a whole conversation in June about whether it was fair or that they were the betting favorite to win the division. And we unanimously agreed that yes, in the preseason at least that's fair. The nice thing about finishing in fourth place is you are gifted with three much easier games. Their schedule is hilarious. Their schedule isn't crazy. Yeah. You get the NFC South and three woeful opponents. And of course we can't predict that to a certainty, but it is a very favorable looking schedule. The Lions should win the division. That would be a successful season. It would be a nice cherry on top. If you could win a playoff game because they haven't done that since 2023. They went Oh, and one in 2024 and didn't make it last year, which is still it's the far if I rely on it's so depressing. I would just I would just sit there and cry about about that every time I thought about that team was so good. It was so good. I didn't mean to bring that up Lions fans, but the point is it's been a couple years. So it's worth bringing up. It's worth bringing up the it may never be as good as this again. It's worth it every time you talk about this team because it's real winning the division and preferably winning a playoff game, but at least being in the playoffs would be a successful season when the division show everyone last year was the exception. Yep. And the one thing we did not mention as it relates to this team and I only want to do this because I've been trying to bang this drum all summer and it's just worth bringing up. I think we've really under discussed how important the quarterback is to what this team feels like year over year. That consistency and offense that we're talking about, the ability to not even dip below top 10 levels last year is everything else feels so chaotic. To me, it just speaks to the type of real stabilizing force that Jared Goff has become. And he's one of those guys that we don't talk about or think about that way often enough. And I think we really should. I'm so glad you said that. And you have been pounding the drum for Jared Goff all summer. And I thought about this when I was thinking about what would be a successful season for the Lions, because for several teams, I'm very quick to say, clock's ticking. How much time do you have with this? Of course, you can't predict the future, but Jared Goff's game lends itself to him. Well, a lot of time. He told you 31. He sat down with you this summer and said, I want to play into my 40s or close to it. Like, I think you've got a lot of runway with Jared Goff and his game should age gracefully to where, I mean, everybody can't move now. Exactly. He's never been able to move. He couldn't move when he was 28. So obviously, the NFL's tricky like that. And I know things can change on a dime. But if I was a Lions fan, I would feel good that we have reason to hope that we can build great teams around Jared Goff for like quite a while to come instead of this year. Next year, it's got to happen. Like, I don't feel that way about Detroit. I think they're a really select few quarterbacks so you could trust to have the intellectual like creative partnership he had with your petting this off season about the way they went back and forth about the offense. How much of a resource he was for an offensive coordinator. It's just not that many guys could do it. And it's it's it's really to me an expression of an idea that we talked about where sometimes the quarterback becomes the offense when he is when he has the capacity to do that and has been in it for long enough. And I think we're at a point now where like the Jared the Lions offense is channeled through Jared Goff in a way that we don't talk about often enough. The scope is just how it is incredible. But he is a perfect sort of quarterback to unlock these players in the way that they're supposed to be unlocked. Well, and up until the last five years. And I think this is still true. What did we say every offseason offensive secure than defense, offensive secure than defense? The reason is is there were for so long like quarterbacks, the top 10 quarterbacks were all guys who had done it for eight plus years. And we're like truly guys leading the ship on like how the offense is constructed. That's why offense was sticky. And Jared Goff even if he's not like as flashy as some of the other guys, he absolutely has that quality. He's played extremely well and continues to it. It's just again, I'm trying to bring that back as often as we can mention it. All right, guys, before we get to the Packers preview, let's take a quick break. Are you the kind of sportsman that wants to dig into the story behind the stats? Join the athletic live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about on game days. We'll watch the biggest matchups alongside the athletics most tapped in reporters. And you can become part of the show in the interactive chat. The athletic live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube. Let's get to the Green Bay Packers are preview for the 2026 Green Bay Packers. Their offseason in 60 seconds. Jonathan Ganon is the defensive coordinator Bobby Babish is the passing name coordinator, which I do think is interesting. Signed Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Han Hargrave, traded for Zaire Franklin, Colby Wooden got caught by the Colts. It's a just highway robbery by the Packers. Benjamin St. Juice, John who Smith is here now, traded for Mark Redman, which is something that will come up, because I do think it's important. Also created trade for Caleb Johnson in a post Josh Jacobs world. Worth mentioning Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner of exemplest, even though it's not technically a loss. Also lost Romeo Dobs, Kwei Walker, King Zanick, Barry Malik Willis, Elton Jenkins, Rashid Walker, and moved on from Nate Hobbs in the draft brand CSA in the second round, Chris McClellan in the third round. And Danny Dennis Sutton. Yeah. Yeah. In the fourth round. What are we most excited about, Derek, with the 2026 Green Bay Packers? I just love watching this quarterback play football, man. It's really as simple as that. We know. I just think it is both in terms of how it looks and what he's trying to accomplish. I do think that like just the elasticity, the calmness with which he kind of maneuvers and bounces around the pocket. I think it's pretty unique among the NFL right now. Some of the backfoot stuff, when he first started doing it, when he was a starter, it's like, what's wrong with you? Why are you doing that? And now it's like, he's kind of the only guy who can get away with it at that rate. And it looks incredible. And so I just think that he's incredibly aesthetically pleasing to watch for that reason. And he is the most like chuck it down the field quarterback we have in the NFL. Over the last two seasons, the only two quarterbacks with a higher percentage of their throws to travel 20 plus yards are Anthony Richardson, who liked that was not real. And Marcus Mario, who is at the point where he's just like chucking it because why wouldn't I? But Jordan Love is doing this while being one of the most efficient players in the NFL situation. Yes, like it's I just think that he is an unbelievably cool player to watch. We talk about this a lot with this idea. And we've seen a lot with a lot of the second chance quarterbacks that made the most of their opportunities. Jared Goff being one of those guys. This convergence when you get to age 28, 29 as a quarterback where the physical talent is still as potent as it's been, but the mental side is now coming along at the same point. And you reach this connection moment where it all comes together at the same time and you kind of hit what is your peak as a player. Jordan Love is 27 years old. He just turned 27. This is his age 28 season. He was calling their plays during the preseason. Like I was excited. Kyle McCord just like nuke to whoever they were playing with Jordan Love. Yes. Yes. And that's a silly thing. But like I do think it really speaks to what his, his like ownership of what they're doing from a schematic perspective. And so that convergence of the physical talent plus where he is clearly becoming capable of and comfortable with mentally. I'm excited to watch that. In a way like as a football fan, I'm excited to watch it as somebody emotionally invested in team in this division. I'm less excited to watch it, but it is a very cool potentiality for this team. And it's like it's not even just that like Jordan Love now is on. He's going into what your six hasn't had a full player his fourth year as a starter. It's also the fact that it's all been in the same offense the entire time like that. That is a pretty rare thing for a guy to get with like his level of talent. It's the process we're talking. Yes. It accelerates that. And so just a guy with his level of talent. Some of the highs that he's already shown like I just, to me, the line goes up with him until it doesn't allow me to piggyback on your point because it does hinge pretty heavily on Jordan Love being good at football. And I think he is, but I'm excited about the vision for these receivers. The past catching group overall. I'm incredibly high on. You don't have to squint that hard to see it like the depth isn't as good as it used to be. And there is a little bit of forecasting involved. But not as much as you might guess. Can we talk about Christian Watson for a second? I understand that you can't just completely ignore durability issues for a guy that's missed 30% of his games. But just the second half of last season when Christian Watson came back from his ACL. It'd be pretty easy to make the argument that he was like a top 20 receiver in the NFL. Like the stats, the stats kind of blew my mind. He was, he took over these whatever was like nine games, second half of the year tied for third and receiving touchdowns with six tied for ninth and explosive receptions with 17. He was second in the league in the percentage of his catches that were explosive led the league in ariards per catch seventh and EPA per target fifth among all receivers in yards per out run ninth in first downs per route run. And he first downs per route run. He was tied with Stefan digs and only trailing George Pickens. He was playing out of his mind. He was he was like absolutely awesome. And all of that despite the fact that his target share was 19%, which was tied with Mac Collins over that stretch of time. So like if you take a while, obviously like the durability thing is very real and not having the depth could be concerning. But if we're feeding him the ball more this year based on what he was doing last year, I completely understand why Green Bay gave him $110 million. Like I think that number sounds mind boggling when you think about the fact that he's never had more than 620 yards in a season. But if you're hoping that that was the start of things to come, I completely get it. And then Matthew Golden obviously had a very small role as a rookie last year. But again, they were so deep at receiver and had so many more experienced guys. The stat I liked the most about him is he had 10 catches for 265 yards and was top 20 in EPA per target when the Packers targeted him 10 or plus yards down the field. Because that's the other thing. He ran so many like gadgety routes within like 68 yards of the line of scrimmage. When he had an opportunity to do stuff down the field, it looked pretty damn good in fits and starts. And so banking on the talent that he had that made him a first round pick and actually opening up his repertoire and his opportunities. I'm pretty bought in on what that's going to look like. It's not as clean as this group was last year because I think the roles for this team were a little bit more defined. But it reminds me a little bit of thinking about the Coltspass catching group coming into last season where even and again, the roles aren't quite as clean as they were with the Colts. Like pierces your field structure, pitmans, your dirty work over the middle kind of RPO guy and then downs as your underneath manbeater. The Colts don't have that sort of clarity. Packers don't have that sort of clarity. But everyone has more juice. Like collectively every single player is explosive. If Jayden Reed is your slot option, he's an explosive player from the swap slot. Christian Watts is an explosive player. Matthew Golden ran four two nine forty at the combine. Like there's just so much getty up collectively among this group. So even if the roles aren't quite as cut and dry, collectively, the ways that you can attack the field and the potential explosiveness you have is incredible. And that's before even getting to Tucker craft. The one thing that I do think is similar is that I think the Tucker craft is just a souped up version of Taiwan. Oh, yes, absolutely. The idea of I can just spit the ball to you and good things are going to happen. They can play that role similarly and craft is a better blocker. And so craft is just I don't, I think we've probably because he's been hurt off season got hurt last year, just forgotten like what type of player he was last year when Tucker craft was on the field, the Packers average 0.3 EPA per dropback. He was incredible. He was amazing. Point three. It looking at the numbers. I was really interested in this because the numbers for the Packers against man coverage last year significantly better than they were the year before. That's some Romeo dobs, but his numbers purely against man weren't as good as I expected. Tucker craft last year average 1.15 EPA per reception against man coverage. So every time he caught the ball, the Packers got a point and I went back and I watched a lot of those snaps. It's a lot of really quick stuff off play action, which makes sense, right? So you're in man. We're going to hard run action. We're going to get somebody filling and then the person who's responsible for Tucker craft and man coverage is now flying down into the sea gap. He's going to leak out. We're going to dump him the ball. It's going to be an explosive play with 351 of Tucker craft's 489 yards last year. It came after the catch. It's all yes because like once he gets the ball, he's just like a moving freight train. He averaged 4.5 air yards per target last year. He averaged 11.1 yards per target. You can do the math on that. And you know what the scariest part of all of this is they've just laid out everything about why you should be terrified about Christian Watson down the field. Underneath within the first 10 yards, Tucker craft is as scary as anybody in the NFL. Those two played 54 snaps together last year. Yeah. If they're on the field together and you have a quarterback that can truly threaten every blade of grass on the field at any given time, there is a chance that like even if Golden doesn't necessarily take a step and even if Jayden Reed just kind of is what he is. If Watson and Crafter just on the field together all the time, it's kind of all wheels up. It's a great point. I think some of my optimism is building in a step from Matthew Golden. He's one of those players that all right, why didn't Matthew Golden produce as a rookie because the role that he was drafted to play was more than capably filled within the offense by Romeo Dobbs in a way that he could not have filled it the year before, which is why they drafted Matthew Golden. The Packers do that man. Like exactly. And so I do think that Matthew Golden will be a much better player than he was last year, but I think it's a great point. Even if he's not, there's still probably going to be scary with that entire group collectively. I am a little nervous about Tucker Kraft. He's like killing himself to get out there for week one. He's an unhinged insane. He certainly seems that it's compliment. Go course. Yes. In the best possible way. He's the world. He's like, I'm not. I'm not going to hold out. I'm going to be out there because I love my boys. And I just take care of yourself, Tucker. Like you only get so many opportunities to sign a deal the size of the one you're going to sign. So just I want the Packers to be fun. But let's let's think about the long term here. All right. So that's the stuff worth getting really excited about. Let's change the tone of this conversation because there's plenty of stuff about the Packers that may be as a little bit less thrilling when you look at the rest of the roster. What are you watching the first month of the season with the Green Bay Packers, Dave? I want to see how the defense responds to nine months of being told they ain't shit without my cars. Because it's like, let's just call it what it is. They I mean, like no, if you're looking for reasons not to be optimistic about the Packers, it's I mean, they're of course the offensive line and we can get into that. But defensively, there's not a lot worth getting visibly excited about with Micah Parsons sideline. If you want to get excited about Devante, why it also coming back from injury, I think that's a valid point. But Micah Parsons is the bread and butter for this defense. And they were not as good statistically as you might guess when he was out there. Those two games are doing a lot of lifting. They really are. But as as middling as they were in a lot of ways, when Micah was on the field, they fell off a fricking cliff when he got hurt in Denver. And some of that is why it as well, because you make the point all the time, Derek, they had like nobody left at DTA. They were on the cuts. They were on DT six by the end of the day. It was tough. It was still hot ass from like December 18 till the end of the season. I mean, from the time Micah got hurt, the Packers fell from 10th in defensive success rate over the course of the season to 30th. Like overnight, they were giving up 34 and a half percent of opposing rushes against them went for a first down over the last like three, four weeks of the season. 15 explosive rushes allowed over the last three weeks dead last in the league. This is all for you, Miami Dolphins fans. I mean, what's the guy supposed to do with that? I mean, that's true. So I also, it's worth saying I gave the Lions a little bit of shit for the lack of pressures on their front. The Packers don't have 56% of last season's pressures in their lineup for week one, because in addition to Micah, Kingsley and Lake Bari is gone. I know that 2025 or Sean Gary wasn't somebody worth getting excited about for the most part, but that was a lot of pressures that are gone. The edge rushing group right now. It's tough. Is this is not theoretical? The edge rushing group right now is Lucas Van Ness, Baron Cerelle and Brenton Cox, Jr. That group combined last season, the three of them had 34 pressures. These aren't depth pieces. These are the, the rotational guys without Micah Parsons for the first however many weeks of this season. I'm holding out hope that maybe you can motivate yourself because everybody's writing you off without number one, but I'm open to Van Ness taking a step to like, he did look a little bit better towards the end of last year. I'm open still. Why it could do some heavy lifting for you if he looks right after the injury? I think to me, if there's any sort of optimism, it is that like if the detaca room is healthier and why it is playing at a relatively high level, maybe you get anything from the third armpit, Chris McClellan. And I think Chivon Hargrave, even though the bike things cut him, like he's still like fine NFL starter. The like, he was very standing. He was an expensive player just financially. They could not keep him. Yes. He might be your best past rusher on the team right now without Micah. And so if they are just like a regular detacl room with some explosive popped them instead of like again, at certain stretches last year, like one of the worst in the NFL to a point where it was kind of unplayable, that alone might help lift this thing. I still think I'm pretty worried about the edge room as well, but like just past rush period. Yeah, that's what I'm worried about is just past rush period. And that's what I'm watching. Like what does Jonathan Ganon do over the first five or six weeks or whenever Micah Parsons is going to get back? How do you get by? Because even if you look at all the different things, Jonathan Ganon has done at these stops. And I think the weirdness of the Cardinals defense is a Rick Nick Rolves thing. Right. That is a Jonathan Ganon in a way that I've always appreciated has a real had a real humility about how he handled that situation, where even as a defense and minded head coach, she's like, you're the defense coordinator. This is your vision. I'm going to let you see this through. I don't think we'll see people trying to take like Arizona stuff and pasting it out to what the Packers are going to do. That's not that's I don't think a lot of that stuff is going to happen. But even as you think about the different executions he's had in Philly and Arizona, he's never been a blitzer. Jonathan Ganon defense and either of those stops has never blitzed on more than 24 and a half percent of dropbacks, which is a below average rate. Even when they were blitzing in Philly, it was a lot of just really standard five man front rushes. It's not a lot of guys off the ball. In 2022, his last year in Philadelphia, among 104 off-ball linebackers with at least 10 past rush snaps, Keisier White and TJ Edwards ranked 101st and 104th and how often they were rushing in the passer. That can't happen. Like you just you in order to survive over these this time before you get Michael Parsons back, you're going to have to be more aggressive. We saw I'm doing in the preseason. Like that's going to have to happen. And I think the player I'm most interested in in this entire defense in that span before Michael comes back is Edger and Cooper. I knew you're 100%. Yeah. Because he becomes I think by far the most explosive dynamic player that you have in the front seven. How do you weaponize that guy as a pass rusher on the edge and as many ways as you can? Because if you do not fully unlock him before Michael Parsons gets back, you cannot realize and even slightly dangerous version of this defense. No. And like you you should be sending him a lot like I think he's pretty good at that. Like I think that there's a chance he can still develop in coverage, but it's still not his best suit. Like you don't necessarily. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I will say before the DT, room completely exploded, he looked really good last season. And then like again, he was playing with like guys who were probably on the practice wide beforehand. And so I think if the detackle room in front of him can look good. And you get them like, Oh, just opening up some holes for him to to be able to fit against the run. If they want to use these guys like hard drive and wider, so explosive that if you want to do some run game stunts and just do some funky stuff that way, Cooper's the perfect player to send behind them because he will get into the backfield. So they do have enough explosive pop here that doing some more interesting stuff than maybe Ganon has done before. I do think would would go a long way for them. What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Green Bay Packers? The two position groups outside of quarterback that give up the worst plays on a football field. The four creating position groups are the offensive line and cornerbacks. I do not feel good about the offensive line and the cornerbacks on on this football team. Uh, in terms of pressure allowed season by season since Jordan love has been the starting quarterback 30.3% in 2023 pretty good. 34.5% in 24, uh, in 2024 a little bit worse was still pretty good 40.9% last year. And there have been slight tick-ups in, you know, his time to throw. But even if you adjust for that and do only plays of over 2.5 seconds to throw last year was still that worse mark. And then they're going into this year with I think you're burden might start at left guard for them. Potentially, I think it's going to be banks. Okay, if it is available, if he's available, it's just consistently hurt, but I think the plan is for Aaron Banks to be the starting off. I have more to say on that. Which I mean, he's not been good, he's been in the line of really. And right guard might be, is it Belton, is it Jacob? Jacob, who has been a backup center, who I think is a little bit small and not very strong to really move people around in the run game as a guard. At least especially looked that way. I thought in the preseason. And so, and now some of the guys that they're starting week one, like Sean Ryan, for example, he played well for them last year, but he came off the bench to do so at times over the last couple of seasons. So the now the fact that he's your week one starter. It's what we talked about it. Like you're just picking away your depth a little bit. Zach Bakke of Waylay has not really been healthy. That's that's and he's your, he's supposed to be your anchor, your best guy. And I think that's part of the thought process of making Belton the swing tackle rather than having him get reps at guard is that you're going to have to essentially plan for Bakke while I'm missing time. And you want to make sure you have a capable option there. And so I think that was probably the tie breaker with, well, if we think that monk and Belton are essentially like a 50 50 proposition. Why don't we just let Belton get the reps at tackle. So if we're put into that spot, we don't feel like we're getting called with our pants down. And that does make sense, but like we're either the two things you feel best about on this offensive line or either Sean Ryan, who again was a backup last year, or Jordan Morgan, has not like consistently played left tackle in the NFL yet. And so I know first round pick Peter green, all that stuff, but the fact that that's the starting point for the offensive line, I'm concerned, the corners bear with me because this status a little bit specific, but six plus area yards. So we're not talking about the under five yards like no cover zone for guys. Yeah, wide receiver targets. So again, like not tight ends running to the flat and outside the numbers. So these are like the corner is responsible for what's happening here. The packers were 30th in EPA for job back last year, only the Titans and the Cowboys were worse, their corners are not good. And part of that is the past rush couldn't get home. And so maybe that helps solve things a little bit, but I still think that this is a corner room that I have some concerns about how will that help solve things. We just said we don't trust the past. I guess if Mike gets back at some point, like getting better, but yeah, if that's the other thing, if the past rush, we don't feel good about it. I have questions about the corner because the past rush didn't look that good, especially without Michael last year. This just feels like a team where I still believe in the best of it and like the quarterback and all that stuff. And I do think that when Mike comes back, the front can be decent. The the floor stuff on this team is like kind of scary to me. I'm worried about the run game was the engine of this offense for so long. And I think that this conversation about let Jordan love really kind of take hold of this thing, let him sling the ball around. It all sounds good. And I think without Josh Jacobs, which I haven't really talked about, but moving Josh Jacobs from this thing, I think people like, although be so much more pass heavy. That makes sense to a degree part of the reason they're so run heavy is that it creates a floor for the offensive line. You don't want this group dropping back to past 45 times a game and putting them in those scenarios. And so even in a world where it's March on Lloyd and Caleb Johnson for an indeterminate amount of time. I still don't think Matt LaFleur wants to throw the ball 40 times a game because that's not what you want to do to this group. And so if you aren't willing to do that because you're not willing to have that be the construction of your offense. And you're a sub 40% rushing success rate team, which absolutely could happen without Josh Jacobs and with this offensive line. What sort of situations are you putting your team in that stuff we were talking about with the passing game. Can you enjoy the fruits of that if so much of the other foundational pieces of the offense or a little bit shaky? Like that to me is where things get maybe a little bit worrisome about an offense that for the most part, you can set your watch to them being a top six unit. Segway is perfectly into what's keeping me awake at night. What if Jordan love is this year's CJ Stroud. What if we just outlined all that to me. I think that I even I think LaFleur in the Evisco position towns too good. But even with the offensive line stuff, I think LaFleur in the scope is just too good. Let's go through this. So we just outlined all of the shit that could be bad about this and for the record. Statistically, not even editorializing argue with your mom. Statistically, Jordan love is the top five or six quarterback in the league over the time that he's been a starter. He's really, really good. And I think that is a big reason why you just kind of inherently trust that this is going to be okay. I think I agree with you for the most part, but let's just go through this again. I bulleted it all out. LaFleur said on September 1st, but that's Tuesday. Wednesday right now. He said Zach Backo, but well, I an Aaron Banks. He doesn't know if they can play full games yet. So it's impossible for him to set the depth chart. He's also so doom and gloom. Well, he doesn't great job of making me feel the same way. A lot of coaches who are just like, there are some coaches where everything is rosy all the time. It's all going to work out. And then whatever that, the opposite of that is, that is Matt LaFleur. Good morning, Matt. What's so good about it? Precisely. It's exactly right. Okay, to Derek's point, even if you're right about that, Aaron Banks hasn't been good when he's been available. Jordan Morgan, your left tackle has never consistently played there. Hoping like hell for Tucker craft, but he's coming off of the major knee injury. The receivers are exciting. I can also just give you the flip side of that coin where they're all terrifying for durability and production reasons. That's very real. Josh Jacobs might not play it all this year, depending on how this goes. The allegations are incredibly serious and should probably prompt you to ask questions about his future and football period. So if this isn't like a waiting for Josh Jacobs in five or six weeks thing, and you're playing the whole year with those running backs. Behind a shaky offensive line, you're telling me there's no world where Jordan love could be valiantly trying to chuck this team into games and falling short regularly and getting his ass kicked in a couple of prime time games. And people on TV on Monday morning are saying, I told you this guy sucks. I told you, Jordan loves not good. That feels so possible. You paint a compelling case. Even if it's hard for me to fully embrace, you paint a compelling picture. I think it would be hard for it to look like as bad as the Texas stuff, but the idea that like that's how we think about it. It's just like this quarterback ends up taking the blame for like eight million other infrastructure and like super smart people like us. And the wonderful people that download this podcast, the people who listened to this podcast and smart. We are not after doing our winds pool draft. There's no way we're smart. But smart people are going to know that Jordan love is better than that. But are we going to have to listen to nine months of dialogue about whether he's worth a shit? It's a good point. I think it is a valid concern and it keeps me awake. One thing I wanted to say before I move on to mine, we did not mention Brandon CSA's name. They are really excited about Brandon. He's he's an athletically like what you really excited about Brandon CSA. If you're trying to build a case for where the cornerback room can be better. I think having him as one of them, I think it's going to be him in next time. Like when it's all said and done. And now you may carry into Valentine's Depth and Saint juice played well last year. Saint juice is your fourth outside corner, your third outside corner. Do you think overall that room is in better shape than it was a year ago? That's what I will say. CSA being a find in the second round quickly would be so they are really excited about Brandon CSA. Whether that actually comes to fruition or not, no idea. But I can tell you that they are really optimistic about that. So I think the cornering can be improved. You took yours wide. I'm going to take mine even wider. Mine is like big picture franchise consideration type stuff. What's keeping me up at night is after the playoff run in 2023. It felt like this team was playing with house money. They were ahead of schedule, they were so young. Who are we also saying that about after that season? Hit me for Los Angeles ramps after the 23 season. Both teams had overachieved that were just better than we expected. Like, man, I just didn't expect this type of season from these teams. Where are the Rams and Packers in comparison to each other right now? Well, the Rams, if they don't win the Super Bowl, it would be a crime. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites are going to be the best roster in the league. This Packers team feels more fragile than it has at any point in the last three years. Even if you pay the optimistic picture of why they can still be good, more stuff has to go right. They are thinner in a lot of these positions. It is a, well, if this doesn't work out, then we're in trouble. Jordan Morgan, Matthew Golden, Lucas Van Ness. All of these things that used to be depth. Their luxury pieces are now things that have to go right. And it might, but if it doesn't, just think about how different the tone the feeling is now compared to what it felt like three years ago. The other team that was in that spot is now potentially on the doorstep of trying to win the Super Bowl. That's what would be keeping me up at night. Just how much less exciting it feels now compared to what it felt like back then. The funny thing is one of my first thoughts when you said that was, well, look at all the crazy trades the Rams are willing to do. Well, the Packers, it's terrible luck that he's not available and that's not their fault. Like they were willing to take swings to get on that level. And they feel further from that level than they have at any point in the last few years. What does success look like for the Green Bay Packers, Derek? This division, I think makes it as hard as anything. I don't know, like, I honestly win the division, I don't know, win the division, win the UFC North. If you do not, how is that a success with this team at this stage, based on everything that I just said? That's a good point because they've been the winning seed, what, three years in a row? They have not won the division in five years, 2021 was the last time they won the division. Win the f*** division. Yeah. I will. I win that. And the only reason it makes me hesitant is like everybody in the division can do it. Sure. But like, you could be, yeah, that makes it out of success. Yeah. I said, it would be nice to be better than the seventh seed for a change. Like if they, if they are the five seed and they just narrowly miss one, you guys heard, you have no ambition, just cowards. Well, I think I'm burned by last year saying like, you better make this super bowl. Is it crazy that Matt LaFlora coming off a contract extension in year? It's not. It's not when the NFC North, even if it's a good division. No, you're right. That should be their aspiration. It should be their aspiration. But there's, this team is just the weird for me to get a handle on. I will say, I'm not picking them to do it by the way. This is not like on town packers, enthusiasm. This is a, what is what do you have to do? No, I mean, it's, it's, they call it title town for God's sake. That's, that literally was a joke that they're making up there. They don't call it a camera God. What was it? Well, Schneidman said, Schneidman said it on the thing. It was like, yeah, we, we don't call it, uh, and yeah, we don't call it a single title town. It's title town. No way. It's an EPA per play town. Yes. And that, that's not what it is. It's like the Hawks like hang the DVO a bit. That, that, I, that's exactly what I was convinced of. No, okay. You convinced me. I mean, if they make the playoffs, I'm not going to be mad at them, but they should aspire to win the division. All right, guys, before we get to the Bears preview, let's take our second quick break. Let's get to the Chicago Bears, our preview for the 2026 Chicago Bears. Their offseason in 60 seconds, signed Kobe Bryant. How'd that go? Cam Lewis, Xavier Woods, Devon Bush, Neville, Galamore, traded for Garrett Bradbury, lost Tremade Edmonds, traded DJ Moore, traded Dervon Dexter, traded, or not traded, lost Kevin Byard, Jaquan Briskler, nation right, Durham Smythe, Andrew Billings, and Chauncey Gardiner Johnson in free agency in the draft. Dylan Thedemann in the first round, Logan Jones, Sam Rauch, Xavier and Thomas, Malik Mohamed and Jordan Vandenberg, again, mentioning both of them because they might be involved in this thing, but pretty quick. What are you most excited about, Derek, as it relates to the 2026 Chicago Bears? It's the Caleb Williams show, and let me, I'm just going to leave this. We've talked a lot about him. I'm going to say my favorite Caleb Williams set that exists at this point. And I don't even know if it means anything. I just love it because it looks cool. There are four games in the last decade in which a quarterback threw 40 passes, at least 40 of them traveled 15 yards and that quarterback won the game honorable, extremely honorable. Aaron Rogers did it in 2019 against the lines. Patrick Williams did it twice in 2019. So mind you, 2019, when offense was like juice, we were playing a fake game at that point, but that's why Ben Johnson is playing a fake game every week. Exactly. The other game is 2025 Caleb Williams in the wild card game, his first playoff game ever against the rival Green Bay Packers. That quarterback is awesome. That game was so crazy, man. I mind it just expanding it to the offense in general, like, I'm on record about this. I, there's a lot of consternation about the overall quality of this team will get into why I might record saying the offense has a monstrous ceiling, monstrous. They may not reach it, but the ceiling for this team, if things click into place, is astronomical. And week five on last season, I said this on the offensive draft show, it might as well say it again, forth and explosive play rate, fourth in EPA per play, seventh and offensive success rate, first in EPA per rush, first in rushing success rate. From week five on the past four years, Ben Johnson's offenses have ranked no lower than sixth in EPA per play. That's crazy. That's insane to be pretty good. We have a play caller who has shown a consistent ability to produce these sorts of results with a group of players that while still young and still needs to take a step collectively has just new clear potential. I mean, like the combination of Lutherburden, Colson, Lovland, Roma, Dunes, a healthy and Caleb Williams combined with this running game, we say the sky is the limit. Sometimes and we don't really mean it. The sky is the limit. Whether they get there, I do not know, but I am excited to watch them try. I can't wait to see specifically the skill players and much like Jordan Love with his receivers. It's so contingent on Caleb, continuing to be good and hopefully getting better. We will talk about it, but and we, you know, the first time you said it, I know Colson Lovland was good. I know he was good last year, but like the first time you said he might already be like a top five tight end, I kind of, I'd like side-eyed you a little bit. The numbers completely back that up in like whatever way you want to take it, like pull up the metric. The only guys that were consistently in front of Colson Lovland when you're looking at tight ends and what they produce last year are Kittle and Tremac bride. And in some cases, even they aren't in front of him. Like he really was that good last year, albeit in a smaller sample size, but still there's so much reason for excitement. Lutherburden, same, but to a lesser degree, like Colson Lovland's. They're different conversations to me, the burden thing is still far more theorized. Yes. Yes. Colson Lovland is already real. Colson Lovland won't be real on stick. It feels so real. And by the way, the only thing where he wasn't on top of the position was target share. He only got 15% of the bear's targets. Do that when we tend on them. It's like 24%. It's back after the season. Yeah, they keep it up. They keep it up. Let's do that. I think it will. Because once he got in the line up, they were like, that guy's insane. He is the most important piece of the passing. Yeah. He just is. This is one of those things that I've just set it with a lot of, in a matter of fact, way all off season, but just because I believe it, like he's the best player in the passing game. He is going to be the centerpiece of what they do offensively. He's the most important and best player. And you already see it. And when you watch not even just, we said this yesterday, he was second in EPA per target among all tight ends last season behind George Kittle II. But even beyond the quality of the targets and the quality of the workload, the ways that they're using him, he's closer to Brock Bowers than he is to the field. Oh, yes. Absolutely. When it comes to deployment and just the things that he can do. And that happened in the back half of his rookie season where he didn't have an early part of the season because he was hurt. The guy's going to be really good. I firmly believe that. I'm giddy about the opportunity to watch these guys. And that doesn't even include Roma Dunseh and what he could potentially be. Well, I mean, there's just so much reason to be excited about what this offense do. And that's the thing. All of these skillplits, like including the quarterback Caleb Williams first overall pick, Roman Dunseh was what the eighth overall pick, Colson Lovelin was what, 10th? And I know Luther Burton went a little bit later, but like if not for his last season at Missouri, being kind of weird, first half of the first round, he was talked about as a much higher. People thought he was wider. Number one, potentially going into much of his college career. And so the fact that it is that level of talent with, again, a play caller who is like at minimum, the fifth or sixth best offense, he's going to print out of it like it's, I don't see how you could not get excited about this offense being insane. So that brings me to what I'm watching the first month of the season. How much crisper does this thing feel overall? Because that is still the thing that needs to happen. We can talk about the potential and we can talk about the explosiveness. We can talk about the talent all we want. This thing needs to be smoother than it was a year ago for us to realize the benefits of whatever this is. You look at it last year, just very plainly and clear. Per next gen Caleb Williams was 20 second in passing success rate last season. He finished behind two, a bone X Michael panics, Jacobi percent to some of those names. That stat is not an end all be all. They were much higher and things like EPA per target or just EPA per drop back, the explosive play rate is obviously huge. They are hunting explosive place. They don't want to be a team that is just staying ahead of the sticks consistently. But even with that in mind, even if it's only one stat, you feel that when you watch them. The inconsistency is incredibly real and it was for a million different reasons. We talked about this at length and we were doing the Caleb Williams conversation on the lingering question show. This is a product of so many different things. He had 42 throwaways last year, which led the NFL 29 drops, which is third in the NFL. The amount of contested 50, 50 bang, bang plays that did not get completed last year that could have been because Rome isn't 100% whatever. It's just messier than it needs to be. And I think the quarterbacks ball placement is a huge part of that, but there are other elements to it as well. We've heard all summer, if you've been paying attention to this team, the command, the control, the comfort level compared to a year ago when it felt like they were all drowning in training camp. Let me see it. Show it to me. Have this thing feel clean and crisp and refined in a way that it did not last year, unlock all the stuff that we're talking about. That's what I'm watching over the first month of the season because if that stuff can get ironed out, boy, I doubt the bears will ever look like a peak lions offense because Caleb doesn't, you don't want Caleb to play that way anyway. Like you want to hunt the explosives. You want Caleb to play past three and a half seconds when it makes sense. The lions are an explosive offense. They're an explosive offense in a very different way. They're a well distribution explosive offense. Having said that though, my God, would it be fun to see them? flirt with the level of efficiency that the good lions offences have had. And like you can marry those two things. I think it is, it is a challenge with what Caleb innately brings as somebody who should be extending plays, but it's definitely possible. We talked about this with the other, this is the last one I'll say. Talking about the off target rate and some of the accuracy numbers and just the idea of Caleb Williams as a creator, their creation, the creation part of the offense last year, the scramble drill part of the offense last year was objectively so bad. It was bad. It's a number I brought up before the summer as a scramble as a pastor last year. So just scrambled attempts, 20 of 59, 30 and a half percent success rate on those plays per next gen, negative 0.14 EPA per play, 60.363.4% completion rate instructional last year, 20 of 59 when scrambling. So if they, if the variance on extended plays shifts back into their favor this year, this idea that Caleb Williams is like this crazy play merchant or all this stuff is happening out of structure is just incorrect. Like that didn't happen last year. It's like a matter of like remembering very specific moments because the best ones are like insane. Like that play in the playoffs happened. Yes. There weren't that many of those during the regular season. And so if that stuff can start to happen a little bit more, if you're getting the positive end of that variance in out of structured moments, that's another area where again the offense can just feel a little bit more consistent because so many of those plays ended in frustrating in completions where you're punting the ball on third nail last year. And even a lot of them too, Caleb Williams threw the ball away a lot like there was a lot of plays. Yes. We would get two throwaways last year. Yeah. He would get outside the pocket and just be like a place dead. And it's like if we can turn those into five yard scrambles, five yard completions here and there. Or even not getting to the scramble party. Yeah. To do that, yes. To me as the refinement and crispness that I'm talking about in the first two and a half seconds of a play this, this, this, this, more of that this year is how this thing takes a step forward. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'm really not blazing the Bears conversation here. It was kind of going to be, it's kind of going to be inevitable. Let it all out. Derek, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago Bears? I mean, yeah, it's, it's to me is in the same category. But like to me, I think sometimes when we're thinking about like offensive or defensive play callers, it's like, what's the evolution? It's like, you're itching because maybe they need it, like Ben Johnson, I trust that something will come and like, whether it's going to happen, it's what it's going to be. This is like a, I mean, this is, it is, he, he, this is where you know, he's in Sean McVeigh territory. Every year going through a Sean McVeigh season, it's not about like, they need to iterate. How are they going to fix this? It's like, man, they're going to do some awesome like, what is it going to be? And with Ben Johnson, I'm like, man, they're going to do something really cool. I want to see what it's going to be. So I really don't even have a hunch as to what that might mean. You know, they, they draft Sam Rausch. Maybe they think he can give them a little bit more with some of the three tied end stuff. And they're a little bit, they're a little bit, let's deep it wide receiver. So maybe they would want to do some of that. But like whatever it's going to be, I'm incredibly excited to see it. I think we're going to see a lot of that because Rausch just gives you, even if he's a young player and it's going to take a little while for him to come along, you can really streamline his role early on. And I think right now it's still, it's probably their second best personal group. After the 12th and their 12, we've talked about this is unlike almost any other 12 in the league right now. When you, when you compare like very few 12 personnel teams have two guys who are capable pass catchers and capable blockers. It's what Buffalo wishes they were. That's exactly right. Yeah. Yeah, it's exactly right. The idea of what Buffalo wanted with Kincaid has come through fruition. Like, Colston, love one is Dalton, Kincaid and Dawson, Nox. Yes. And then they also have Dawson, Nox. Yes. And they already have Dawson. Yeah. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Chicago Bears? I should probably let this go because I do trust Ben Johnson, but it's worth bringing up. It's worth bringing up. I'm just going to keep a close eye on the offensive line and make sure that that we don't, that we're not missing something by hand waving this away because right now, I think Braxton Jones is the weak one left tackle unless Ozzy Truppillo really does make the fastest recovery from a patellar tendon tear in the history of mankind, I assume. Like that happened in the wild card game. And he's on the roster, right? Like, he's not even, yeah, he's not even on pop. He's not on pop. He's crazy. I see him right here. Brian Braxton Jones on our list. Ben Johnson was, he was like, yeah, we're, you know, we're hoping for the best. I'm like, how is this happening? So I'm keeping an eye on that. And then I do, I, I've said this before, I really admire the job that they did acquiring Gary Bradberry. I still think he's, he's not as good as Drew Daumann. And I think, you know, how you adjust the menu and tune the dials of like what you want to call, particularly in the run game, because he like, he's not a mover and a displacer, like, he's not a displacer. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing. When I say mover, I mean like people mover, pushing people off the line. So how do you call that to suit his skill set? Although the main thing I want to share here is the fact that I laughed out loud when I pulled up Gary Bradberry's mock draftable draft prospect profile. Do you know who is closest comp is? It's Logan Jones. Isn't it? It's Drew Daumann. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yes. They have it. They have it. They have a tight. No, they, this fact that they, like Drew Daumann retired and they were like, where can we get Drew Daumann and brought him in? They have a type. I think it's going to work, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at it. I have less concern about the healthy version of the offensive one. I think that Bradberry can be 80% of what you got from Daumann last year. I think they can hide the left tackle because they had to last year. Yeah, they already did it. They had to last year. For the concept. And it, Brexit Jones looked like my caveman brain will not allow me to just say, left tackle doesn't matter. I can't get there. You can hide it. And they did last year all season. You're right. It was Brexit Jones. It was Theo Bennett. Then it was Azitropo. Azitropo was not good last year. It's still not. It's still not better. It was the best of bad question options. That part of it. I trust their ability to do it. Brexit Jones doesn't look good in the preseason. You're not given help to the left tackle in the preseason, right? In the way you're going to when you have to game plan things. If the left, if the line says healthy, I think it'll be okay. My concern is if, if guys start getting hurt in ways they didn't last year, what does that do to the offense? You were on the positive side of offensive line injury lock last season. Domin Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Darnell Wright, missed to combine one game last year. All four of them played a thousand snaps. That probably isn't going to happen again. And so if we're trying to figure out reasons amid all this optimism with the skill town and Ben Johnson and everything else about why there could be some regression for the offense, the offensive line health luck from last year is what I would point to. No part of me believed that Logan Jones would take Garrett Bradbury's job off the rip, but it sure is nice to have him there. That part is nice. Everything else is, even though they do have seven left tackles. So if the left tackle gets hurt, seven to play one, you're not, and none of those guys feel better. It isn't replacing what you got in Darnell, right? No. That's not happening. Who's also, we didn't have a mention him yet. He's also a difference maker when you're talking about the explosiveness of the offense. All right. Let's change the tone of this. What is keeping you up at night, Dave, about the Chicago Bears? It is, is it a side of the ball we have not yet mentioned up to this point in the preview? You're probably thinking we're planning the Super Bowl route to downtown Chicago. Um, every single thing about the Bears defense, not only nightmare fuel, not only keeps me awake at night, but drastically alters my opinion of this team. Like I could talk for another 30 minutes about all the things I can't wait to see about this offense. I'm terrified of the defense. I assume it's going to be bad. Tyler Gordon is officially on pup and by the way, everyone in the building seems to hate him. I don't know what's going on there. It's a very strange situation for Kobe Bryant. You already mentioned Cam Lewis is your starting nickel. I do think that for a mid August signing, you could do a lot worse than Xavier Woods, but he's hurt. He's hurt. He's doing things up. Yes. They're in a spot now. I was going to say Xavier Woods is a nice mid August signing, but you don't want to be making mid August signings if you have real aspirations to do something. We're in a spot now with the Bears where because Xavier Woods has been banged up throughout training camp, it sounds like they might have to start Cam Lewis at safety and have Malik Muhammad, who is their fourth round pick start at nickel. Cam Lewis has played less than 300 and safety snaps combined over the past three seasons. He was like a nickel in dime looks player for the bills. So this entire thing is just unsettlingly unstable in so many different areas. We talk about the what's keeping you up and I think is like a theoretical thing for most of these teams. This is literally what is keeping you this is this is close to home and mine is like. I just don't know if the defense has the horses at all, man. Just imagining like Robert's wife comes downstairs at some like hot and I was just like doing the dishes at 2 a.m. just like great Jared, what are we going to do the only part of that that's not true is I don't do the dishes in my house, but it'd be it's when I'm taking out the trash. Just like muttering to my stuff's being like, oh my God, I would never get one. There's no there's no piece of this unit that really excites me. I guess what you told me before we started recording like if Jalen Johnson is the guy I remember that's exciting and that could go a long way towards stabilizing this thing. The problem is the entire and my mind what's mine is the same as you guys like the defense is a house of cards that can come crashing down at any moment. That's what's keeping me up at night. The entire argument the entire spin for optimism as to why. Why this could be a better defense this year was health and the secondary and improvements in the secondary. It was getting Kobe Bryant, it was Cower Gordon coming back healthy in jail and Johnson coming back healthy. If you only have one of those three, how can you possibly feel good about where this is? You can't. And this to me, even in the best case scenario, all that stuff it comes to be, you're still worried about the past rush. This team last year finished dead last and quick pressure rate when bringing for dead last. That's partially a Dennis Allen step. It's partially the way their defensive lines play and more of a react attack sort of way. But even when you consider that, they finished dead last two years in a row before Dennis Allen even got there and quick pressure rate when bringing for the past rush was not good last season. You're banking on some combination of Dio coming back an Austin book or saving you. The fact that we're just obsessed with a sixth round defensive tackle because of how little hope there is was so many other defensive front pieces speaks to where this team is right now. Overall, other bigger picture stuff plus 22 plus 22 in the turnover differential last year 104 total EPA on turnovers, 20 more than the next best team. They were seventh in EPA per play on third down last season behind only Seattle, Minnesota, Denver, the Rams, Patriots and the Eagles. They were 10th worst in EPA per play on early down, fifth worst success rate. Third down is volatile. Third down in turnovers are volatile. Those are the only two things that sustain this team last year. This is a product of multiple just wasted years in the offseason on defense. The top 100 picks on defense of the Ryan Poles era, Kyle Gordon, Jaquan Briskard, Javon Dexter, Tyreek Stevenson, Zach Pickens, Shemar Turner. The free agent signings with at least $10 million guaranteed of the Ryan Poles era on defense. The free agent, Dio Dungbo, Tramayn Edmunds, Yannick and Galkway to Marcus Walker. That sort of hit rate would, I mean, that would get you demoted in the M.O.B. Like that is terrible. I know this doesn't really, Johnson has helped a lot. He's doing a lot of lifting here. I know this doesn't really matter because turnovers are mostly about luck and variance and bounces of the ball. I do think it's interesting that this is the Al Harris point. Well, well, Al Harris is good at coaching DBs to get peace. He better be because they led, I mean, they led the league in takeaways. They led the league in interception. They had 23, 19 of them are gone. The guys who caught those footballs left. So we'll find out just how good Al Harris is at this. I mean, he's got a track record, but somebody's got to step up and get these footballs. This is a 10 year situation with Kobe Bryant and Kyler Gordon. Now it's worrisome. Like, at this stage, which position group do you feel best about? Is it linebacker in what you're hoping for TJ Edwards to be healthy and Devon Bush to have not been like a one year flash in the fan? I'm a DeMarco Jackson guy. So no, who is coming off the bench? Yeah. Who is good off the bench? It's, it's, you can't feel good about most of it. Like maybe the defensive line can be better this year, maybe Grady Jarrett's healthier if Vanderberg can give you something, again, Dio and Austin Booker did not play together last year. This is the most co-op shit ever. Like trying to tie the center to one, yeah, to be like it's 21st, but you just want to feel good about that. You can't feel good about it. Do you and all your Bears fans, friends and family? Do you feel like a monkeys paw sort of situation where you used to pray to like a photo Walter Payton for a good offense? Yes. And now you have it and this defense is going to make the monsters of the midway role in their grave. Be careful what you wish for, but that's where we are with the 2026 Chicago Bears. What is success for the 2026 Chicago Bears, Derek? I think you leave this. I'm a little bit less, I know that they won a lot of games last year. I'm not so much worried about the wins and losses for this team. I think if you come out of it and you are certain that the young players on offense are like for the next five years, absolute dudes, including the quarterback, obviously, I feel pretty good about this. As long as you don't win like seven games, like you should be in the mix till the end at minimum. But like, I think if we all feel good that next like moving forward, Caleb wins can be one of those dudes and one of Loveland, Rome or burden is like holy shit that guy's insane. We're good here. I've been consistent about this all year. Get more out of Caleb, feel rock solid about the skill players when the season's over. I would say if that happens, you'll be in the playoff mix anyway. Exactly. Right. But I don't really care. I don't care if this team makes the playoffs. If that stuff happens, my guess and my expectation is that this is the most fun 500-ish team in the league and whether or not they make the playoffs is kind of immaterial. I'm glad you guys have said that because I wasn't sure where I was going to land on it because part of me does feel like it's kind of cowardly to be like, "God, it doesn't matter if they don't make the playoffs." I think exactly what you said is right and I'll read it verbatim when I wrote. The offense proves itself to be a machine you have to worry about for years to come. The quarterbacks development being the key part of that, that's enough to get you a playoff spot. Yeah, I don't know if it's enough to get you a playoff spot, it's enough to have you in the conversation. That's probably right. Yeah. That's probably more correct. I think it's more that when you go to the divisional round, the idea of not even being a wildcard team the next year, even if there's so much else to be excited about is a little bit depressing. It's a little bit of a letdown, but I think you guys are probably right. And the last part was you can convince yourself you can fix the defense next off season. Yeah. Oh my god. Well, you have a lot of brothers to do. Imagine the news cycles and talk shows in this city. If the bears, if the bears have the season, we just described and then they can get some contracts off the book and spend on defense next year, this place is going to be insane with opium. If they finished like 14th and offensive DV away, I have to leave the country. That's true. Yeah. That would be bad. Yeah. I think I think I have to quit the job. You're trying to open it again. You were talking about earlier. I honestly, if I stopped covering the NFL, I think I would just go live in Copenhagen. I think that's the only thing preventing me from living there. To the point that you made it less, it sound like we're letting the bears off the hook. It's probably an organizational failure on Ryan Poles and the people that came before Ben Johnson's fault that they're not in a better position to take advantage of this. But I can't put that on the 2026 Chicago Bears. Like they are. You're right. Over the last three or four years, but these are the cards you have right now. And if you come out of it, feeling confident that Caleb is the guy, I think it's okay. Yeah. I mean, you have one more cheap year after this, right? Maybe your next year is year four to get the most out of the rookie quarterback contract and some of the other rookie got rickie deals that you're working on. Right. Which like, you always want to use that. But like, if you come out of next season, not caring at all what you end up paying him. Huge one. Oh, that's to me. Yeah. I would love the idea of when we get to the end of this year. And it's not a single bit of ambiguity about what he should be paid. That's a means another part of success because right now, there should be. He needs to take that step. There's a little bit of, yeah. We were, we're treating it as like a foregone conclusion a little bit that he's going to be that sort of guy. I need to see it. And I want to see it. I believe it can be true. But that's been my, I've hauled that line the entire off season and I will continue to hold it. Let's get to the Minnesota Vikings. Our preview for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings. Their off season in 60 seconds, hired Frank Smith as a senior offensive assistant, which I do think matters. But in Kymer Murray, Ryan Vandermark, James Pierre, Joanne Jennings, lost Jonathan Allen, Jalen Nailer, Javan Hargrave, traded away at Jonathan Grinard in the draft. Caleb Banks in the first round, Jake Goldey in the second round, big citrus Dominique Orange in the third round, Caleb Tiernan in the third round, and Jacobi Thomas. Do we not say Harrison Smith also lost Harrison Smith? He does not a relinquish. For now, which is why I forgot it. For now. We'll see, we'll see. Okay. We will talk about it. What are you most excited about? Because it relates to the 2026 Vikings, David. We finally get to unwrap the Kymer Murray mystery box. We've been talking about this since, it's been about this this morning. We've probably been talking about it since November of last year, like when the Cardinals benched Kyler and it was obvious that he was done in Arizona. That was when the first inkling that this could happen came into your brain. And then it obviously happened and now we've had an entire off season to sit on it. And we had a fun back and forth about this at our live show. The last time Kyler Murray started a full season, he wasn't above average NFL quarterback. He was actually one spot better in both EPA per play and success rate than Minnesota Viking Sam Darnold, which is a very fitting place to start this whole conversation. If you combine 24 and 25, he still has a higher EPA per dropback in Sam Darnold. So even with the fact that he's like not, yes. The fact that he's like not in his stratosphere is insane to me. He was good in 2024. I mean, much like we talked about with Jacksonville a few days ago. The Cardinals were six and two and trying to mess around and win the NFC West midway through that season. It fell apart in the second half as it so often did with the Arizona Cardinals. When Kyler Murray was there, maybe that'll happen here too. But to even have a quarterback that could get you to six and two and have you excited about the second half of the season would be nice after the year that the Vikings have been through. His numbers are really promising in a decent but not great Arizona situation. Even if we can. And this will be part of the discussion, I think. This idea of Kevin O'Connell and the quarterback Whisperer and everything else and maybe us being a little bit more down on that idea than we were a year ago after the J.J. McCarthy thing. Even if Kevin O'Connell was 75 percent of what we made him out to be the last off season, with Kyler Murray, probably enough. Probably enough. I think that's based on what we've seen from Kyler Murray. And that probably is unfair to Kevin O'Connell, like I think it's like J.J. McCarthy probably just wasn't good enough. Some guys can't be saved. Yes, some guys can't be saved. It's just going to be what it's going to be. And so I. like I think that this will turn out good. And I think like to build on what you're saying, like in the world where I think Tyler Murray will at least be playable. When Justin Jefferson has a playable quarterback, he is unbelievable. He is give me the stats every his average season before 2025. So this is including when he's a rookie and when he missed seven games in 2023 99 catches 1480 yards and eight touchdowns. That is his average season. It makes me so happy that Justin Jefferson was complaining about losing cloud last year. He was just like, everybody forgot I exist. Yeah. He is the best example we have in recent memory of it only takes one year. The idea that you could have in the first five years that Justin Jefferson had. And then one year with a guy that was drafted in the first route that was immediately ejected from his from his job was enough for us to just be like, Justin Jefferson, is he really that good anymore is insane. It's truly insane. We were having knocked down drag out fights about who was better between him and Jamar chase. And it just completely ended because of one year where Jamar chase continues to get to play with Joe burrow. And we got JG McCarthy in Minneapolis. I guess I know Joe Flacco played last year. I know that. This is not to take away from Jason at all. His season was incredible. But what Justin Jefferson's average is like a barely worse than what Jay has sent it that year. Offensive player of the year. Justin Jefferson is pretty good. And I'm just excited to to see him feel free and like play like himself again because like the numbers are down in part of that is his quarterback play. Just like not getting him the ball. He was clearly like frustrated. Oh, yeah. He was miserable season himself. He's one of those guys that there is such a joy in the way that Justin Jefferson plays. And to watch that joy see like sucked out of Justin Jefferson was a true bummer last year. I'm excited that we might get the glint back in Justin Jefferson's eye this season. We've talked so much about the Vikings supporting cast everybody gets that. But like this undoubtedly has to be the best the best cast of players that Kyler Murray's ever played with, right? On tonight. Like I mean, he had he had McBride for a year, the year where ironically he could not get him into the end zone. And Marv was on that team and young Michael Wilson. And then in 2021, when they went 11 and six, it was Christian Kirk, the Arizona version of AJ green and the Arizona version of Zach Hertz as well. And DeAndre Hopkins was there as well. But the Arizona version. The Arizona version of the offensive line was never good. This is it's it's so unquestionably better than anything Kyler Murray's been given to work with. I'm most excited about the entire experiment on offense. The quarterback being part of it. What is the court? What does the offense even look like passing game was? Yeah. What are you going to ask of Kyler Murray? Because I think there are things that Justin, that Sam and I'm just like removing 2025 from my considerations when I talk about who the Vikings want to be offense. When I look back at the 2024 version of the Vikings, the amount of work that they were able to do and damage they were able to do in the intermediate to deep part of the field, especially like outside the numbers. Kyler Murray, his best strength to me is the quarterback as the passer is his touch on intermediate to deep passes. It's beautiful. And if you think about some of the big sail routes they want to throw, he's really, really good at that stuff. And so I do think Sam Donald led the NFL and passing arts on intermediate and deep routes in the seams and outside the numbers in 2024. Kyler Murray, that's what he does well. The element that's me is a little bit harder to square. Kyler did a decent amount of under center play action in Arizona, but it's a lot of like big guitar fakes where you're getting him outside of the pocket afterwards. There aren't a lot of plays where he's setting up in the pocket off play action. Sam Donald did a shitload of that in 2024, 49 intermediate and deep attempts off under center play action from the pocket in 2024 for Sam Donald. Believe that was the second highest mark in the lead pernection. Kyler had 12 of those. So even in a world where he was using a decent amount of under center play action, his frame just doesn't allow you to do some of the thing things they were doing with Donald. So I think that looks a little bit different. So it's not about can this work? I do think there's so many things they want to do that'll line with Kyler's relative strengths. I just think structurally you're going to have to figure out some things you didn't have to figure out with Sam Donald just because of who Kyler is. I don't necessarily disagree with you and he did play more under center. It's not a crazy outlier the way that burrow is in Cincinnati or obviously not Jaden Daniels's first couple years in Washington. He's still post cliff Kingsbury. He ticked he was 31st in the league and under center snaps during the cliff years and it ticked up but only to 26. Yeah, like he they're still going to have he does it, but he's still he was he's in 2024 or the year that we just gushed about as being pretty good. He was top 10 in shotgun rate. And so and the Vikings since KOC got there their second in the league and under center snaps. Donald did it all the time. Kirk obviously did it all the time and their top five in under center play action as well. Kyler has done it. Kyler can do it. How well can he do it if that is like are the Vikings going to do it that much or do you kind of have to adjust the sliders. And that's what I'm curious about and I'm curious about how it also relates to the run game because when I talk about the experiment overall, they are really excited about the run game. Like what they're seeing the early returns on it. They hired Frank Smith. I think you were on your you were on your training camp tour when we did a show about them hiring Frank Smith and I spent I spent some time digging into everything they're doing with their run game and it's it's pretty exciting. They're extremely excited about this. We'll see if that's warranted, but they're extremely excited about it. They were a middle of the pack rushing success rate team last year, which was better than they were in the Darnell years. But I feel like they believe that there is like a real jump potentially on the horizon here. And I don't think that's crazy based on personnel considerations. They're offensive line last year. They played with the second most offensive line combinations in the NFL last season, 17 of them. Only the Charters had more. And beyond the shuffling, even when Christian Darisol was playing last year, he was not himself. No, he is the way that he looks right now in camp. They think he can be like an all pro player. And so if that's going to happen with just more stability across the board for a team that already had an average running game and the other part of it to me, that's so interesting. The run game in Miami, even as an outside zone team, was incredibly gun based in part because of who to is. Well, now if you want to do that again, you have a quarterback, you could add to the run game. Yep. So now you have this Miami run game that was dynamic and scary and really good over the last few years. And you can start reading shit on the back side because you have Kyler Murray. It's I don't know if it'll work, but the idea of it is who was the pack that there are the fact that they were finally an average run game last year with considering the factors, considering nobody cared about what was happening at quarterback and passing game for them because it was so limited and how many different guys were playing banged up when they were even in there. And then yeah, Darisol, who is supposed to be like your star on the offensive line, not fully looking like himself. If any of those factors can change and get a little bit better and you can add the quarterback run game. And this is a run game that like they have depth at running backly. They have two guys that are like viable threats for them. And so I think Jones will be more of a change of pace. Right. But the fact that he's still good at that at this age is like, you've got to worry on his touches. You all 100% especially at his age. You have to that's I've taken Jordan Mason in every fantasy look. Yeah, every single one just because of the run game has that sort of ceiling and he's going to get 15 carries a game. He's never got 200 carries. Ever in a season. Mm-hmm. If he does that, he's a thousand yard back. He's in this offense. Yes, you should be absolutely. I'm trying to hold back on getting too excited about day three draft picks in these previews. But Dimon Clayborn, you want to talk about juice in the run game. And obviously he's third on the pecking order. I don't expect him to get a ton of work. But as a guy with real home run speed that you could insert into this thing in specific situations, I think that's something worth keeping an eye on. The other day, three pick that's worth mentioning before we move on from this. They drafted a fullback in the fifth round. He sure did. And that they're going to use that guy. Oh, they are going to use that guy. And so I'm excited to see what happens with the run game. This might be one of those training camp. It's all sunshine and rainbows and bullshit. And it doesn't end up actually working out. But there is real optimism about what they are building over there. Go watch the first run they had in the first preseason game. It's an outside zone to the left. They hit it for 19 yards. It already. And sometimes this stuff takes a while to click. They already feel like they're on the screws with like what the run game has been. Let's get to what we're watching the first month of the season. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the mini with the Minnesota Vikings? I've been joking since Friday night of the draft that Brian Flores took control of this year's draft. And they took four big time defensive draft picks. And I just want to see how quickly those guys are ready to roll what they look like. And I think there's cause for optimism. I think unfortunately some of this looks exactly as realistic as we thought it might. Everything I've read and seen and just watched with my own eyes about Kayla Banks kind of confirms why that was an eyebrow raising pick for me. I'm not here to shit on the guy's career. He's hasn't played a regular season game. That he doesn't play much football. Exactly. That's the problem. Like divorce yourself from the idea that I'm trying to render judgment on the guy's career. But at this point in time, he'd told it. He said himself to reporters last week. I'm not in shape right now. He was rehabbing a foot injury. That was the big thing that raised questions about him as a draft prospect. It limited his off season. Nobody's upset about this. This was part of the deal. Brian Flores talked about it. Brian Flores has been very complimentary of his approach and, you know, how he'll develop and work his way into conditions. He's made of the right stuff. I think that's the thing they're excited about, but you have to acknowledge the gap that currently exists. And it, it's a bummer to not have high expectations for a top 20 draft pick. Like we've talked about how we need these rookies to infuse this thing with some young talent. Caleb Banks might be that guy by December. I mean, that's the hope, right? Is that Caleb Banks can give you something over the course of his rookie year. I don't expect him to give you much in the first four weeks of the season. So that's already a little bit of a bummer. Dominique Orange looks very fun. And I'm not just saying that because Flores dropped him into coverage in a preseason game. Like he looks like he can help you as a run defender right away. Correct. Yeah. That's the thing is like orange will be a bigger part of what they're doing early on than Caleb Banks will and I think by a considerable amount. And they need that because again, they need it. That's the part of Justin. They need this shit. Jonathan Allen and Javan Hargrave were cut from this team, but those are financial decisions. Those players were totally acceptable players for them, especially in run defense last year. And so they really do need Dominique Orange to step up because like Jalen Redman is solid and Levi Drake Rodriguez solid. I think Jalen Redman's a really good player, but this is, but you need, without the young guys, other guys. There was a point in time where Jalen Redman was coming off the bench for them to be really good. Yes. Now it's like he's the dude and you need waves behind him now. One more bright spot. 69 preseason snaps isn't a huge sample size, but Jake Golday looks exactly as fun as I thought he might be. He does look good. Flores was sending him off the edge. He was sending him through the a gap. He had 11 tackles and a pressure in the preseason. And so it just as like, you know, a jack of all trades, a guy that you can use to get pressure in unconventional ways. I think he'll have a role pretty quickly. And I honestly think they might have to start using him as an edge player at times. Like they just signed Kyle Van Noy, which we didn't say because they signed it after I made that list. They were really thin on the edge. Like it just, we can talk about just the defense overall. But I think the young guys, it's not a matter of simply curiosity with the young guys. On this team, you feel like they have to contribute because of what the defensive makeup is currently. And so that's where I'm at, like, not only just the rookies. What do we get from Dallas Turner, right? Who's still a young player, huge part of it. It is now a, we need Dallas Turner to be that guy. And I think there's optimism that he can be. But it kind of reminds me a little bit of the Packers conversation where we're in a place of times now, man, where there's no waiting for these guys. We need them to be contributors based on what the other construction of this looks like. Let's get to what's keeping us up at night about the Minnesota Vikings this year. Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the Vikings at the start? I said, we get to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box. And this is the part where I say, we have to unwrap the Kyler Murray mystery box. What if it's not good? What if it's socks, you know, I don't know. That's, I, I used a lot of my notes in the previous segment. But I've been talking about this incessantly since last November. And I'm, I'm super intrigued by it. I'm pretty confident it's going to work. Like, that's what I was going to ask. I was like, hard of hearts. Where are you out with it? I think it's going to work. I don't know if the Vikings are going to go 14 and three or anything like that. But like, I think Kyler Murray is going to give this team good quarterback play above average quarterback play. I believe it. Maybe I just want to believe it, but whatever. This is where we are. It's not cutting time. But that doesn't change the fact that it might not work. And it's going to be disappointing for me personally. It's obviously going to be disappointing for the Vikings. It raises a shitload of questions about Kevin O'Connell. If it doesn't work and, and where this team goes at quarterback and who should be tasked with identifying that quarterback. And on top of that, the Vikings just won't be very entertaining for another year, despite having a pretty good roster. And that's, that's depressing. And I like watching Kyler Murray play football. I hope it doesn't happen. Let's stay depressing. Mine is, what if a return to capable quarterback play, even if we concede that, even if we give him quarterbacks 16 this year? What if that's just not enough? That's the scariest outcome. That's the horrifying. That is scary stuff. We spend so much time saying if they just had a quarterback. So let's play this ad is really bleak. Let's say he's quarterbacks 16. Let's say they're the 11th best offense in the league, which we can talk about this. The Supreme cast, the Supreme cast is excellent. If the run game is better than it was in 24, 20, we've talked about this. In 24, they weren't a top 10 offense. That's partially because of the running game. But if you're quarterbacks 16, you can only be so good offensively. You need everything else to go so well. Let's just in this hypothetical say they were top 12 offense with Kyler Murray playing as quarterback 16 through 20, which I don't think is an unfair framing of like work. That's, that's up to this point in his career. Up until 2025, 16 to 20 was the worst that you could ever put him in. Yes, and so like I think it's pretty reasonable to assume he can at least get back to there. So let's say that. But let's say they're the 10th best offense in the league. What if the defense takes a significant step back, which we were going to talk about here? That's worth keeping you up at night. The defensive personnel, look at the Vikings defensive depth chart. Brian Flores has been incredible, right? But if he can make a top eight defense out of this thing, we should just build his whole fame bus now. Like that would be an insane achievement. So let's just say this year, they are the 12th best defense in the league on top of being the 12th best offense in the league. In this division, what does that do for you? You probably finish nine and eight because the same is last year. Let's look at it this way. If that ends up happening, how many more elite units exist in the division over what you have? A lot. I mean, the packers of the packers offense, the Bears offense, like you might be a 500-ish team that misses the playoffs. Okay. Now let's take it a step further into the off season. What do you do? You put yourself in a spot where you're not sure if paying this guy is the right move, but how can you not do it? Like you almost have to do the Daniel Jones. Yeah, do you want to go four years in a row with a different quarterback? And then if you do the Daniel Jones thing and you're paying Calla Mority, Calla Murray $40 million, you're then paying full freight for a quarterback. You already have a lot of expensive pieces on the roster. You already have, you still have a ton of holes defensively. Like that. I don't like this. To me, it's not even an unfair reading about the season. It's like a middle of the road outcome, but then when you start to play it forward, it's like, it's not a worst-case scenario, but it's also not good. And I honestly think that is the most likely path here. So then you have to decide if we're not going to pay him $40 million, $45 million, $50 probably with inflation. Do you want to take your chances in the draft again? With where they want to be picking? Maybe it depends on that. But if they're picking 17, and you got them to move up again, and you're even if there's five quarterbacks in the first round, you're picking quarterback five again. And so again, I don't think this is the most charitable or at least charitable vision of the season, but I don't think it's some far off fantasy. You said 11th offense, right? If they're 11th and offense, you find a way to keep Kyler around. Whether it's the tag or depending on the size of the deal, he'd be willing to sign. But 11th is pretty good considering where you just was. You're 11th paying him a million dollars. And I agree with that, but then if the defense does take the step back, even if you're like, okay, we found a guy who can do it, you just feel worse about it. Like I think in the world where the defense falls back to like 12th, which if our ranking defense is this probably about where I would put it, like I think they'll take a step back. I still think they'll be good. I still think they'll destroy some of the bad quarterbacks in the league, because that's what Brian Flores does. Being an 11th best offense is like the worst outcome. Like if they're in the fourth best offense, and this is just nuclear and looks like the Colts or something, you're pretty, I think you can't happen. Which can happen. I think they can't happen. Listen, I know the Colts did so many cool things last year, and they have some really good players too. If Daniel Jones can be the hottest thing in football for two months, I'm pretty sure is significantly more talented player in Kyler Murray. Also has that possibility to do that. But you either need that to happen, or for the Kyler Murray thing to go so bad that it's just like off-ramp screw it, this is done. And I think both of those are more far off possibilities, than just being kind of an acceptable way. Just being like way faster than that. Yes. So your answer was specific about the defense. You're worried about the secondary. I think I'm worried about the secondary. And this is me like, I think this was my answer last year. Yeah. And I think the talent on the secondary is worse than it was last year. At least you still last year had some of the like, no, Harrison Smith is still in the building. He's still a veteran for you. And you know, again, maybe that'll actually still happen this year. But like, I think to me looking at a secondary that is Byron Murphy, Josh Mattellis, Theo Jackson, Isaiah Rogers, Jay Ward, Byron Murphy is the only player there where I'm certain they are. Good for how dare you talk about James Peer that way. James, James Peer and Isaiah Rogers. He refuses to give any credit. They are always acceptable corners. They need more than acceptable secondary players here. Here's why I think this is a different situation than even last year. Last year, having Harrison Smith allowed you to use Mattellis the way that you want to. Right. He can be a box player. Last year was on half the snaps. But that was partially just because of how much bass they played. Without Harrison Smith there, you lose two things. You lose the flexibility you want from Mattellis. Because even if you're excited about a Jacob Thomas, who's an undrafted free agent, this is still like, we're talking about undrafted free agents. It's even if you're excited about players like that, having to play Mattellis in the deep part of the field in part because you lost them all atoms. You lose the flexibility you like on the back end. And with the Harrison Smith thing, the communication, Mattellis is going to have to do that stuff. And so I think getting Harrison Smith back to unlock every bit of flexibility schematically that you have. We talked about this. They've got like four calls on the huddle based on what's going on. was the channeler of that. So getting Harrison Smith back to be that and to be able to use Mattelas the way that you want to because there's so many questions about the quality and depth at safety, I feel like you have to do it. But whatever he wants, I could pay him 10 million dollars and put five wooden years on. Who gives a shit? Because I do think that is the material difference, even if he's not the player he used to be. Of this secondary last year compared to what it currently looks like in this moment. He's, I mean, this is the time where you would do that, though, and they haven't done anything. I, we'll see. I mean, it's still a week. I think in an active game. I think that is possible because he can play tomorrow. Yeah, in this, yeah, he can worry about a wrap up period for Harrison Smith. Let's talk about what success looks like for the 2026 Minnesota Vikings. I feel like we kind of just danced around it. You got to put a fine point on. Y'all harshed my vibe if I'm being honest with you. What was your answer? I said quarterbacks good, defensive solid. This is a playoff team. But then on the bottom of that, I said, at the very least finish the season with some confidence that Kyler is your guy and you don't have to do this shit for another year. But having listened to y'all, the path that leads to wanting to pay Kyler, wanting to pay Kyler, not feeling like you have to. Important distinction is a narrow one. And that's scary. I don't know if it's that narrow. I do think it's, I do think you can easily talk yourself into it. Like I think success is every bit of enthusiasm we had about this offense and this infrastructure and this support staff coming out of 2024. Do we have it again? Yes. Do we have it again? And that's exactly why I'm if we have that. And even if you're a nine and 18 because the defense takes a step back, but you can talk yourself into the multi year outlook for the offense. I think that's okay. I think that part is okay. I don't think you have to make the playoff for this to be considered a success. I think you have to reestablish the way that we see the people associated with this organization for his hazard. That said, and that's in cast and amber. Yeah. The O'Connell offense part of this. Can you get the most out of Kyler? The paying him thing, all that stuff. We'll handle that when we get there. But that's me would feel like success. If we feel the way we felt about KOC and Kyler Murray in 2024, that that will be a success. Like they will be where they want to be. And again, to put my last point on like why I do think the Kyler Murray thing should work. We've talked we've like obsessed over the Reclamation quarterback over the last handful of years because a lot of guys have made it work like Baker Mayfield made it work. Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, some of those guys are really talented and also went first overall and like Sam Darnold's arm is unbelievable. Kyler Murray's highs before he became a Reclamation project. We're objectively significantly higher than any of those guys. And just unbelievably talented. Like I just I have faith that this thing is going to work. If all of that's true and I agree with you, I just I think playoffs should be the goal. And I think it's fair to say expectation for that matter. I just I have my concerns about the defense. That's the only reason that I'm not just writing it in because again, if they're a middle of the pack defense and they're the eighth best offense in the league, I don't think that's a crazy outcome. And you might not be able to make the playoffs in this division with that. And I still think that would be a success. We have really big concerns about all four of the defenses in this division. But we ascribed playoff aspirations to everybody else. I think the offense, the off the heights of the offenses in the other places are not theoretical. We all saw those offense finishes top five units in EPA play in the final two thirds of last season. I think Green Bay is a little more theoretical than you do. But we've seen I do it. We just quarterback in this coach every single year for the last three years. I think that's a good way to frame it. I think if literally any offense in this division finishing in the top six, I'd be like, okay, the one I would probably have the most questions about doing it is Minnesota. Even if I believe in it, it's just like we have not seen it. We've not seen it. We've not seen it. We're back in playcar like it's it's okay to wait and see how what you think the quality is going to be. Yeah. All right. That is all we've got for the Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North. We will be back tomorrow wrapping things up when the NFC West are eighth and final division. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listen. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. 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