2026 Miami Dolphins Season Preview: "Roster", Ratings, & Odds

[Music] Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Bet Spurs. Welcome to The Deep Died Monday, July 20th, Dogdez Summer, very much here. And we are going to, this is going to be a weird one, man. This is one of the weirder kind of situations we've ever had in the NFL. Miami Dolphins are up first for us as they are the fourth, the fourth most likely team in the AFC East by Mark Goddard's. And they hold the distinction, Andy, of having $182 million in dead cap this season. If you are trying to do the math in your head, I'll do it for you. That's 60% of the cap is dead cap for them. They are paying more money to players not on the team than players who will take the field for the dolphins this year. Who's behind the receivers in two? I mean, it's a lot of money. There's 182 million, it's just an absolute stupid number. It's a record. It's a record. Let's do a quick run back. We are sitting in middle of the season last year. The Jets are 0 and 7. I offer you even money. I say when we do previews, yeah, it's July. How much would you like to bet that the Jets are the fourth choice in the East next year? And even money. It is a reverse mortgage type situation. This is a truly, truly they've done something to fall behind the Jets here. And yeah, like you said, when you have that much dead money, it's super hard to compete. This is really a let's screen and bear it, get through this year, move on, see what some of this youth looks like. See what some of these, you know, some castoffs and some additions here and see what we can get. And obviously try to try to put together a better defense with a defensive minded head coach. We're starting out with the new GM. We're starting out with basically from scratch all around, especially at the quarterback spot, which is a huge question. I think the too long didn't read for Miami and how you feel about Miami. Obviously we do these. This is how we feel. This is how we are rating this team to start the season. Maybe lots of I'm going to change shit before we get to. Oh, yeah, for sure. But remember, this is where I'm at right now. But I think if you're doing this exercise and for anybody who maybe doesn't follow all the users new to this, we find. Power number, we put together a power number, a power rating for each team to try to, you know, find a way to bet against them or on them in the market. And we do it by breaking it down unit by unit, putting some numbers to those weighing it all together and coming up with the number relative to an average team and. Man, there's a there's leverage at 32 teams in the quarter of X spot. Obviously boy, this one, I think as far as your opinions, I think we can like we can all agree how good. Certain quarterbacks are and where we're at on them. This one is I think you're going to get a wide variety of opinions from the market from people on where we're at quarterback wise Miami. And then my push back on this one being one of the more. Levergy ones is, is it going to matter because of the skill position group that they've put together around him for right now. And you know what we have for play calling coming into the season because it's really a lot of mystery. This could be messy. Yeah. And I think they kind of want it to be like, hey, let's get a high draft pick again next year. And clear if the goal is develop or compete for just, you know, kind of play out the play out the schedule and find out where you're picking in next year's draft. Presumably they're not in the quarterback market for next year's draft, even though it's going to be a good quarterback class apparently. Because they went out and signed Malik Willis. It's an interesting, it was an interesting move at the time. And I guess kind of will shape a lot of, you know, how entertaining this team is this year if you can play. And you know, the sample size is limited of his backup results from Green Bay, but the numbers were spectacular. It's tough to say if that's repeatable, but you know, you got a kind of, I think, put two and two together. This is an organization. The organizational turnover was, you know, bringing a bunch of guys from Green Bay. And they brought Willis with them. So they obviously think something, you know, was good that was going there. I don't think they would have done it otherwise. And yeah, I mean, it doesn't look like there are huge, there are huge, huge holes on this roster. They know that they've acknowledged it. They had them last year too. I mean that we were going into last year. Mike McDaniel was very clearly ready to get fired. And I was quoting from the preseason, you know, we all, slowly marching towards death. Sadly, he wasn't the first coach fired for my bank role purposes, but he was eventually relieved of duty. And I think, I mean, I think they made the correct decision also to move on from GM Chris Greer here. I believe I was pretty, you know, I mean, he, organizational malpractice digging them 182 million dollar deadcap hit the FDF deal with this year. You know, that's on his head. He'd been there a decade and really we just hadn't seen it. You know, the highlight of his 10 year was maybe the 70 point game. Yeah. Oh, this could be a really fun offense. And then we just never, it never really materialized into a team that was going to compete for real. And Janet Rick Sullivan from Green Bay came down. He is your new GM. Hopefully the Green Bay defensive coordinator, she knew head coach Bobby Slowick calling plays formerly of the fight and Houston Texans. Sean Duggan is the defense of coordinator, but hopefully we'll call the defense and then Kevin Pettulo from last week. Guys, he is your passing game coordinator down here. He's the RC from Philly last year. They did retain. I believe Chris Saber was retained. That's still your special team special teams is okay. So it's a weird team. It's a weird situation. It's going to be a weird year for the Miami dolphins. They are right now plus 3750 to in the ifs. They are 12 to 1 to make the playoffs. So things are not, you know, it's not going to be a bright, you know, optimistic training camp down in South Florida. It's going to be a, you know, a we're all just trying to make the team next year type of vibes, I think. And all, yeah, you like a lot of those names you mentioned off the top are guys that probably weren't going to get it in each other anymore else. Frankly, like some of their failures, you know, the slowings and patrols of the world were so spectacular that I'm almost surprised they're back in football. Yeah. I like. And that's the other. That's the other, you know, I think that's going to be polarizing for people who are trying to prognosticate out of this team looks. Or maybe you're just a fan of this team where you follow the NFL and you want to have opinions is slow. And he had some, he had some success early. And, you know, if some people want to lean on the fact that maybe that was just the quarterback lifting him rather than him lifting quarterback that's fine. I'm not 100% I think that's a spectrum. I think he did some things right there to start out. I didn't love how they put together that offensive roster at times, although he had some pretty good players. So to fail there was maybe a little more damning than I'm putting into words right now. So when you're right, it how you feel about and that's one of our ratings is quarterback OC and have two massive question marks. So like the floor is, hey, we win one one game early at home against a better team because it's 150 degrees and they just have a bad day. And then we split with the jets and then all season long, we're hunting for that third win. And then the ceiling is, I'm like, Willis is actually good. We got to, you know, we got to see glimpses of that. Slowick, maybe just needed a change of scenery. This defense over performs some of the young players because you have a defensive head coach and this team wins like seven games. But it's not an easy schedule. It's not an easy division and the ceiling is still pretty low. I don't know if you know, this is a, hey, let's, let's bet on variance and take a long shot for them to make the playoffs. That seems like a really big step. Yeah, when you see the skate, when you see the schedule schedule is not great. That's going to throw a little. And that's the, you know, some of these long shot fourth place teams, you often get like 20 to 1 to 1. Yeah, right. It takes in. It takes an extraordinary like, hey, you're rated as a bottom three team. And you have two teams in your division that are, you know, essentially expected to go into the playoffs and maybe deepen the playoffs. That's, you know, they both have to shit the bed and something amazing. You don't have to have to. Like 40, what number would you take? Hunter to one? No, I think, no, I think I'm just not really interested. The dolphins in the cardinals to me are both rostered like they're not going to compete this year. Yeah. And I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. And so, you know, I hope I, maybe there'll be some opportunities to bet on the market. The market number right now is already lower than I came up with. And I was very, very hard on these guys as I was coming up with my fair. I'm lower than you. So the market, I'm our market is, they're marketing what minus five points, something. Let me see what it is. minus five point one, one, sorry, minus that's the jets that are dolphins, minus five point nine, two. So basically, minus six. They're spotting an average team of touchdown. The, how do we get here? They drafted to a to a got a bunch of head injuries. He looked great throwing the ball to a, you know, a peak tirey kill on a rookie contract. They made the playoffs a couple times. They gave to a four year, $212 million contract extension in 2004. The team summarily quit on him. And early in the early going of 2025. So not even a year and change into that deal. And yeah, you know, either thanks to kind of the history of concussions and or the overrating his quality of play, because he was throwing to, you know, he was tirey kill merchant. You know, it was, it was a, it was a big, it was a bad mistake and they're paying for it. Two was drafted ahead of Justin Herbert. And behind Joe Brobe, if I remember correctly, fifth overall pick. Is that right? Yeah, it sounds about right. It's been a bit, it's been a minute now. And maybe that's, if you are a Miami fan, maybe that's the one thing to look forward to this year. You don't have to hold your breath. Anytime you see a free rusher or the quarterback leaves the pocket, it's like, oh my god, it's just not going to see a man, you know, die on the football field today because he's, you know, it's funny too. Somebody, we should do a segment for that people because there's so many people that have opinions. And he, especially when he had fans, he had some pushback. Somebody was mad at us as portraying Jackson Dart as someone who had injuries because it was, he only actually was in the concussion protocol once, but it's like, did you know, fun fact? Half of the games he played in, he was checked for a concussion. And honestly, truthfully, they've talked about this now. It's not the concussions that you get later on in life or later in your career. It's the, you know, like less than pre-concussive hits, I think they call them sub-concussive hits. That's what it is. And like, yeah, it was always like sketchy watching him. We still have to watch him play probably this year and makes me nervous, but I'm a little more excited for the future because, God, we might see, we might just, maybe that's the offense. Hey, you're going to run the ball like 30 times, buddy. That's not happening. Yeah. So, you know, it's everybody who is culpable for this disaster has gone. The new general manager, John Sullivan, John Eric Sullivan, whatever his name is. I know very little about him. I was never really overwhelmingly impressed by the roster building in Green Bay. So he, him as a hire, as a decision, like, you know, Ross kind of electing this path was a little bit of a, huh? All right. In the offseason, didn't you kind of get a little bit of a, huh? What? Wonder why? Wonder why they're doing this. Funny that you compared this team to Arizona when you're talking about teams that aren't competing because it's the same, it has the same feeling vibes around the owner for me where it's like, sure, this guy likes to own a football team, but that's not what it's like to put the money or effort into running it properly, like a championship team would. So it's a, it was a, it was a lot of this was weird. And this is going to be a very weird season for these guys. As they went into last year, even beyond just the bad vibes around McDaniel and his, you know, his excitement for coaching, which was kind of a weird thing that he kind of fell apart like that. They've decided to feel the defense with no cornerbacks, which was weird. Their top cornerback last year, Storm Duck heading into the season, as he was their CB one heading into the season, just in a cherished performance, he went against the Colts and then the rest of the history basically. They had a couple of bright moments where they competed in the middle of the season. The middle of the season was okay because they were, they were two in seven. Next, they had a four game winning streak, I think, and then it just, you know, it fell apart to get it to the end of the year. The offense finished, you know, miles below where everybody thought it would be top heavy, expensive roster that didn't work out. The defense had flashes of, hey, this player's okay, this player's good. This player's well above average, but not all at the same time. There's injuries. There were some in and outs. There were some moves and a lot of, you know, a lot of moves in the off season that have left the keber dry. I don't know what do you want to rank the top five subtractions here for team players? Well, I guess, yeah, I mean, cheese. 31-year-old Tyree Kill towards ACL week four. Do I have that right? I think I do. They trade away, Jayden Waddle is gone. Yeah, I mean, yeah, you go for it. The biggest minuses were the quarterback and the two wide receivers who, you know, that was your entire offense. I said, Devon H&N. Yeah, H&N back. That's like your best offensive player, I suppose, by probably credit, but yeah, by a lot, make it, if it's Patrick out to the, the Jads after the homecoming, you bring in Beliequilla, she bring in Jalen Tolbert from the Cowboys. Where did you have Tolbert on that depth chart last year? You know, he was kind of a three, four guy. He's four. Yeah, he's like your, he's your number one boundary guy right now. You have two to at well. Free agent, you brought in from the Rams. Well, League Washington's their top target, I think. Yeah, it's two to at once. Like four. Just a speed guy. Maybe take the top off a little. You brought in some adressers from Baltimore. You brought in some free agent cornerbacks. You brought in at some point, Greg Dolcich is on this roster. And then a bunch of other depth, Charlie Hack, you need the rotational pieces there where you have some entries, probably coming in the preseason there. So new kickers, it's been a big roster over kind of overhaul. And then obviously we mentioned two agon Terry, gone, Gaseki gone, H&Resigned, got a nice little deal. He's very, very good. And they had a lot of draft picks. 13 picks they made in this draft Kaden Proctor. 12th overall, huge friggin dude, six foot seven, three, 50 plus. Looking like he's going to be your right guard to start out Chris Johnson cornerback in the first round. They had two first round picks. I think we're going to talk about five first round picks between the Jets and dolphins today. He's starting because it's a torn down secondary and you need a guy. I think he's your number one. He's your CB one. Yeah. He's your CB one as a late first round pick because he has to be. You drafted a linebacker in the second round. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech, Rangie guy. He's probably starting or at least rotating next to Jordan Brooks because. Yeah, I mean, it's a yeah, Jordan Brooks is good. And it's going to be a coverage of your scheme for guys like that. Then he's going to probably play Chris Bell is a third round wide receiver that's probably going to play eventually. He had an ACL tier last year. So he's not going to start right away. It kind of a mid season thing. He's starting the season on pup, but somebody to watch for down the road because breaking in for a wide receiver sometimes tough less tough when the depth charging for you looks like this. Same thing goes for Caleb Douglas and we'll kick Merrick. We're taking in the third round as well. A couple more pass catchers. And then I mean, I think they made six seven more picks after that in the fourth or seventh round. A lot of depth pieces. They got that, you know, they had all that capital from the water trade. So they will add a lot of depth. And it's kind of fun. You have a bunch of bites at the apple per se or so to say. I liked all the guys that grafted. I didn't know. I didn't know. Selection because I feel like you could have you needed a guy who was going to play right away. At the wide receiver position. That's weird. I think I think you can look at it from that way, but you can also look at it from, well, we went in this year. If we really liked what this guy did at Louisville. then let's take him here. And if he has that much upside, once he's healthy, that's fine. We don't need to win games. - The top three players on their team from last year are still here. Also, it's worth noting. Aaron Brewer is a good center. They're paying him. Adivani Shane is a good running back. They're paying him. Jordan Brooks, he's only 28. He's been around for a long time, but he can play, absolutely can play linebacker. And yeah, like you mentioned, all those guys you rattled off, particularly the early round draft choices, Chris Johnson, Kaden Proctor, and Jacob Rodriguez, I think are all potentially day one contributors in a good way. So yeah, I mean, like this could be a quick bounce rebuild if they go into next year's draft and get like an only wide receiver or something. - This team could be described as plucky at some point during this season. - We'll call him plucky right now. - They might be, they might be, they might be the dog that you want to take seven and a half points with weekend week out, because they're gonna be dogs like that a lot. The general kind of holes are, you mentioned, you don't really have a very good wide receiver and tight-knit room. That's pretty obvious. Like this is a very, very, very poor pass catching unit. It's not clear if Malik Willis is a very strong passer. Most of his value add comes from his scrambling where he is electric, you know, when the pocket breaks down and he creates out of structure. One of the faster, you know, quarterbacks in the NFL, he could ultimately do enough on his, you know, with his legs to that this is like a, you know, possession, you know, time of possession heavy team, time possession heavy offense. - That's what kind of alluded to that earlier. It might be a team that, hey, we're running 30 times a game. It doesn't matter what the game situation is because we paid this running back, quarterbacks probably gonna give us six, seven carries. We have a backup kind of a short yardage guy. We're gonna run 30, 40 times regardless because I don't know if we can drop this kid back, you know, 50 times every game. And it'll be interesting to see exactly what the scheme looks like. You know, he's a slow ex kind of chanahanish tree. Outside zone, a lot of play action, heavy motion. I guess kind of more of the same, but we'll see what it looks like from a power using A-chan in the passing game. I was talking to Nune and about him earlier, just did, we were waiting for someone else to join a meeting and said like, you already have a slot guy in Washington, but, and honestly, Tutu can play some slot stuff if he's not going deep, but A-chan should be split out a bunch too. Like, you kind of want him on the field all the time. If he's not a true third, three down back, if he's not in the back field, he should be lining up outside too because he's probably a better receiver at times than some of these guys. He's great with ball in his hands. I mean, that was always the trademark for the last couple of years. It was like, all of these guys, get the ball in their hands and let him do something. I, you know, and that's kind of where my, that's kind of where I'm disappointed at the decision making for the hiring, right? If you got a little bit more of a creative up-and-comer, offensively. I'm Mike McGrath. With these guys. (laughing) With these kind of pieces, like, it would be, you know, it's like, this is a non-traditional, you know, kind of way to build an offensive roster. If you had a, you know, kind of a bold thinker, who was crafting up some funky stuff, it wouldn't be fun. I don't think Bobby Sillick made that description in any way. So, yeah, I'm, you know, it's like, we're gonna, we're gonna, - It's a tough set. - We're gonna have to have this same conversation in like an hour when we're talking about the jets. Like, what were these fucking teams thinking? - Yeah. - I heard these, I think. - So, you get put in a weird spot when there's like 10 openings and you're clearly not one of the best. - Premier, yeah. - Yeah, you're not a premier spot. So, you're not gonna go get Kubiak. It's a hard sell to go get him and bring him in. You know, some of the, the offensive coordinators that are like, - I wouldn't like that great enough. - I'm gonna go halfway. - Well, no, I would have loved it, but I just don't think he was coming here. You know, I was like, hey, he had better options. He was getting courted, where that's where you have to go find an offense you liked. One of the teams where you said, hey, this is a smart offense or a smart offensive head coach. And their offensive coordinator is getting, you know, poached this year or next. We had to go like one spot down. - The whole time. - And I talked to him and said, - That's where you start taking some of those quarterback coaches and stuff like that. Who's a Vikings quarterback coach? A couple people kicked the tires on him. - Yeah. - God, former quarterback. - Former quarterback again. - Wes, I don't know. - No, no, no, no, that he was a quarterback. Real, chisel jaw, I can't think of his name right now, but a couple teams kicked it. You know, when you're not the premier spot, you gotta get a little deeper down in the roster and find somebody from a spot you want and I don't know. We'll see, it'll be interesting to see what Hayfley does. - Okay. The whole hiring cycle last year was kind of drunk. I didn't really like what anyone really did. - Joshua Cowell. - Yeah. - Here we go, Bernie has a Joshua Cowell. - Great job. - Well, the roster's incomplete, although it has bright spots. No secondaries for me. - Vex sealer. - Zach sealer is kind of a mystery to me. I don't know if he's overrated underrated or what. He's compensated. - Yeah. - He's been here for a bit now. And same thing, I think you have, you have some upside defensively. I'm more excited about the defensive upside. - Yeah, I have sealer. I have as barely as a plus player, but at age 30, I don't know that he's giving you much. What do you make? I don't really, also I really don't know what to do with Chuck Robinson. I don't know if he's getting any good. - Good upside, we'll see. - I don't know, man. He really did not contribute much last year. That was a weird year for him. - We talked about the connection between past Russian secondary and that probably made his job tougher. What does the same time, is that getting any better? - No, I think the past Russia's looks weak to me, even though they made some investments and to me the secondary looks like a problem. So we'll see. What any other final thoughts about their offseason? I mean, I guess let's give a halfly a hot second here. What did he do in Green Bay that really opened your eyes as far as this guy has, we had a kick the tires on him as a head coach. 'Cause I'm not seeing it. - I mean, they made improvements. But yeah, it was again, they weren't in the running for some of the big names. I guess they just wanted. - Who came first? Was Sullivan or Hayfley? Like, which one? - Sullivan, I think first. - I feel like I was like. - I think they hired John Eric Sullivan and Sullivan brought in, brought Hayfley. - Yeah, I wonder if that was part of the deal there too, but at the same time, first time head coach like this, he'd probably get off a little cheaper. He's not an OC, I don't know if it was a money thing or what, but I mean, he made improvements in, was it two years? Was he only there two years after taking over for? - Yeah, he took over for, the guy that was wildly underperforming. He had a micapartons last year for part of the year. I don't know, man, I'm not sure I really ever got a sense that what his, you know, he was head coach of Boston College for three years, like four years, four seasons at Boston College before moving to Packers DC, spent two years there. Yeah, I mean, Packers defense last year was what, middle of the Packish, EPA per play? Did you have any of the clubs? - I don't know, he's been a coach for four years now. Joe Berry was his predecessor, and he is currently, the Rung Game Coordinator and Senior Defense of Assistant Four, - Miami Dolphins. - What? - No, he's not. Really? I thought I saw him. - Oh, he's not. - I thought I saw him. - He's way down on the, yep. He's like a third level coach, man. - Game coordinators, high enough up there. - Hopefully he's half way, I think it's half way. Half way is a Green Bay Packers defense last year, and he finished 22nd in EPA per play. Barely ahead of the mighty Caroline Panthers, I guess a good job. If we go back to 2024, the was the top four EPA per play, so it was a much better year from the Packers. I don't know, man, defense is all about just who he played, and I never really got the sense that what he was doing schematically was game-changing stuff. So we'll see if it works out as a head coach. At least, he's got the head coaching experience from Boston College, so maybe he does have some executive. - AC and power. - Power. (laughs) - Boston College. - Yeah, anyway. - It's ratings? - Yeah. Let's do it. All right, as I mentioned, the toughest one probably is QB OC because I have very mixed feelings on both. I wanted to go real low, but until I see Blake Willis not look fun. I mean, that's maybe the best way to describe his time when he got some starts up there in Green Bay. And I mean, Green Bay saw something too where they went and got him said, we want this kid for our backup. They went and got him from Tennessee after, obviously they weren't going to go forward with him. So I went with a 3.5 here. I'm at 3.3. Yeah, the slow thing is, I think I mentioned that there's a, there's a low floor here too, but Willis's mobility and I mean, some of the system fit and the fact that they can lean on the run a little helps him out. You know, it's a different skill position. But yeah, it's low. I don't know what the ceiling is here, probably just above average somewhere in the 55% higher range. Yeah. Okay. So Willis had 57 snaps last year. No, it's not. His EPA per play was absolutely ridiculously good. But you got to downgrade that for sample size. The previous year, two snaps is a two walls of the receiver room in Green Bay was just okay. He wasn't even really there. I don't even think you'd better than this. Oh, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. But yeah, he was his EPA per play the year prior with 82 snaps was also excellent. So it's like, there's a two year teeny, weenie, weenie sample that says this guy could be at above average quarterback. As more tape gets out there, does he have a ceiling? Is he are there limitations that we just haven't seen yet because he hasn't played enough? Or is he actually going to be kind of your long term answer or quarterback? I think is really kind of the only thing that matters for the dolphins this year. Like you want one eight, you want to know, you want one thing out of this season. If you are, find out, find out what you got. And find out. Yeah, find out what you got with your QBOC. I'm starting out at a 3.3. I feel like the market is probably low on this now in terms of like treating this as a, a bottom three, bottom five quarterback situation. But I don't know. I don't think it's, I think that the mobility and small upside you see in the data is worth considering and kind of pitting them in that 33% tail range is right. Skill group one of the words in the NFL, actually, the worst, I think across my numbers. This was my last, my last skill 32. I think it was. Let me double. Yes, 32 out of 32 here. Decent gap between them in Cleveland as the 31st for me. I gave them a 2.1. So basically a 20% tail skill group. Wait, 2.1? Oh no, 2.5. I had a 2.6 written down here. But if you're a little lower this point, I'm sorry. Yeah, I had 2.6 also. I was. I went up here. I went off the chart. 2.6. Yeah, 2.6. I'm a little higher and I'm finding out the more and more time I spend with this. Every team is such a unique situation that I can't use the same grading scale. Where I did adjust more for like, hey, this team's probably just going to run the ball more. And as I mentioned, when we were talking about some of the quarterbacks who bring that to the table, I said, I think I need to start putting in running quarterback exists and is successful at it. A little bit into skill group. And that's kind of what I did here. I leaned more into a chance is taking a bigger slice of the pie than maybe some teams would be doing. Or just they're running the ball more than other teams. So I don't have to down with them as badly for this wide receiver such tight end course. So I'm going to 3.3, which still isn't clear of that many teams. I think there's only three teams below them. And you know, you do the Tariq and Wattles attraction. That's huge. As we mentioned, Jalen Tober, 2-2 at well. Mollie Washington, Greg Dullsage, Ricky Chris Bell coming in eventually. All that put together is we'll see, but we know HAN is good. And if they can use him creatively, it can be okay. It's still a bottom five skill position room even with a very good running back. Offensive line. I gave them a again, like this is a unit that has a couple bright spots. But a lot of youth and I don't have Patrick Paul or Austin Jackson rated especially highly at the tackle positions. Jonah Savayneia and I say. I am. I think he was the worst syllable. He was the worst guard that played last year. He's bad. He was he was the second round rookie last year. So I try to give those guys a little bump like hey, you know, you're going to improve little, right? You can't be that bad. But yeah, I mean, he didn't great out well. Patrick Paul was okay. As you mentioned, Aaron Brewer, very good center. You have a good good anchor in one spot. But the results were very middling at best. I went with a 3.9. I'm a little higher because I want. That's a better. I went. No, but I can see it. So I was a 3.9. I struggle with what to do with rookie linemen who are going to start from day one. And that's that's another project I've had been working on in this off season. How am I treating? You mentioned this last week. How am I treating people who start on day one? And I think some of it is, well, are you starting next to a really good love tackle? Who's going to help you out? Are you starting next to it? Not not so much. That does change on some of the stuff. So I had to actually drag my number down a little based on where I started with because it's okay. This guy still was a first round pick. We should get something out of him. And I think at this point, we're hoping he's just league average. Next to Patrick Paul. That'd be names. Proctor or long term guard. Or is he going to eventually take over his tackle? He's really big. I think they're I think maybe that's the plan. But right now, everyone's kind of penciling him in his guard. Left guard, I believe, next to Paul and then Austin Jackson is working off an injury. We need some updates on that before we actually get into the season. There's probably a right tackle battle. That's something that could be if he's not. Yeah, if he's not a hundred percent, that's what you bring in a guy like Charlie Hack to be a swing tackle. Play for you there. But yeah, I'm a little higher new and I'm not married to that number. All right. 30th in total, my Miami offense is 31st percentile. That makes them the 29th best offense in football. You want to guess what I have a med of? Soft top here. The Titans. And the Browns. Yes, that's correct. Yes. Not by my mind too. And they're obviously close to the Raiders. Raiders, depending on how you want to make your number, it does sound like we're going to have to make a Kirk number. The Las Vegas Raiders just start the season. Defense. Defense is a very, very tough one because again, there's a clear and near incomplete. Clear and incompletes for the past Russian. Yeah, it's some past Russian positions and at the secondary. I went with a 3.8 for runstop. Again, anchored largely on the fact that Jordan Brooks can play. I'm at 4.9 for past rush. That feels optimistic as I look at the numbers. And then I'm at a 3.2 for coverage. Okay, I went with a 3.6 for past rush. Like you said, you're quite a bit higher than me there. Runstop, I'm at a 5. I actually think we can be a good, not great front. And then coverage. This is another one we're varying a little. I'm at a 1.7 to start because I'm not going to get excited about basically anything that happens here. I'll put the chart up. So this is your worst defense. It's got to be close. It is right now a 34th percentile defense. It looks like the Cardinals and a couple other teams are going to be kind of close. The jets are there. The dolphins are the dolphins are who I'm talking about. And who else there? The commanders. We didn't have very high rating on them. Depending on where we end up with the Bengals, they might be kind of close to the bottom bucket too. But yeah, it is a pretty low-graded defense for me. I made a special team six and a half year, four and a half. Again, that's a super small part of the rating. So that makes the chart look a little funny. But again, the shapes are similar-ish. And I'm just kind of leaning on where I'm at with that coverage. I did use some of last year's stuff, even though a lot of those players aren't here, but you're starting a rookie corner and he's supposed to be the strength here. You're gonna have to, in a weak link system, you're putting a guy out there in space, number one, hey, you're our guy at Ju-Ju-Bren, in a short term deal. You got a pretty young safety pairing and a trader in Johnson, make him fit Patrick's not enough room anymore. It's a little inexperienced, a little thin, and even with some of the grades, they give some of these players. I'm starting real low there. As I mentioned, the runstop, I think Brooks is a nice second level PSP and Sealer and Grant. He's a kind of a tackle machine, they should be okay versus the run. Five is like, hey, five's a good rating. That's one of the higher numbers you put. Five means league average. That means you're dead nut in the middle. So one of our highest ratings was, hey, you're gonna be absolutely average at runstop and you're gonna be excited about that. And then the pass rush stuff, I'd like to hear what you say because you weren't sure on Chop Robinson. I think he's a big swing part of that number if he can continue to be an ascending player, they can get to where you're saying it to be a middle of the pack pass rush and some of the reclamation projects from Baltimore they brought in to. I guess I gotta defend my pass rush number or revise it down. I think you do like Chop Robinson. Guess I do. Have to. Yes, I need to figure out it. Yeah, I got there. Yeah, maybe I'm thinking. They were middle of the pack, Sacrate last year. Pass defense was 28th ranked. That was the problem that you can drug down what was happening up front. There was never a case for them to be like bottom quarter of the league, I don't think with this front. It should be one of the strengths and the defense is the front two, the front two lines, but it's tough to say what we're gonna get out of some of the additions, Uchea, a Javo, Chop Robinson will kind of juries out on exactly what kind of blitz packages, I guess we'll see with Hathley. It's more of a disguise stuff rather than just hey, we're blitz heavy. Like, I mean, there are defensive coordinators. They're just, hey, we're blitz heavy and we're successful with it. This is more of a disguise cover. Disguise pressure kind of thing and you don't know who's gonna hit used in what spots I guess or who's gonna use the most and who's gonna have their chances to make an impact in the game. - Yeah, I'm at 3.6, which is, I think that's it. - Yeah, basically I just, I don't have this as like a bad defense, I have it as a below average defense by a good amount, I'm like 40th percentile, but if I, but yeah, you're, I'm definitely mentally struggling to tell who, you know, what, why these players weren't on it. - It's funny to me. - It's a situation. - Good. - It's hard for me to not consider this double counting as well because I always say, if you have bad coverage, your past rush is gonna struggle because they won't have the time to get home. And if you have bad past rush, your coverage is gonna struggle because they're gonna have to cover for longer periods of time, which is, you know, there's such a connection there and I think that maybe that's why I'm lower on both because I have big question about how much the crust, you know, both of those spots right now. - I had Kenneth Grant as on the up swing after a very bad start to his season. So I think I'm projecting him to take a meaningful step forward and I like Zack Seiler a lot. I mean, not a lot, but like enough to think that with that as kind of your interior past rush, that if you get anything out of chop, Robinson and Joshua, then this is an average unit. - Yeah, and that's where I have my run stop a little higher. I like those two plus Brooks. - Special teams. - Yeah, it is a new kicker, new kicker, new punter. - Yes. Bradley Pinyin is now the punter, Zane Gonzalez is your like week's hours. - Both from Atlanta. - I think so. And I think they swapped kickers with Atlanta. Some of the DVOA numbers were positive on them, unlike punt coverage, kick coverage, some of those things. So I'm a little higher here. And my number is minus 5.3. So I'm actually a little lowered market. - I'm only minus 4.09. And yeah, I'm higher than market on this team, but not really running to bed at it. I gotta think hard about how I'm coming up with my past rush numbers where this far off. And my coverage, I guess actually too. I maybe I'm just an over rating, a couple of things I think here. Defense should be lower. - Yeah, I mean, we'll take a look at the schedule here. - Yeah. - You combine, I mean, neither of us has rosy feelings of all the uncertainty here. And then you start with the schedule where cheese, you're favored once and home versus the jets. - Ooh, it's gonna be tough to get the 4 or 5, the over under on the wind total, the regular season wind total is 4 1/2. And I've seen some people betting the under. I think so Patrick and the comments already said he's on the under. You have. - Terrible start to the season. - You get Vegas. And you don't even, likely, don't even get the benefit of letting your past rush and defense go against Veruki. They're probably, it's sounding like they're gonna start cousins a little bit to start the season, ease things in. And then at San Francisco, and those are both the way games, you go away or the start out. Road road west coast too. - And then, oh, but we get a game where we get to host a team in the heat of September, but it's the chiefs. - Yeah, yeah. - It is the chiefs, and then you go to place, to play the Vikings in Minnesota. - Yeah. - And then you get home versus burrow. So, if, unless Kyler stinks out loud, and like you, yeah, you're easiest quarterback you're playing there is. - Kirk cousins. - Kirk cousins. Who's a pretty decent quarterback when he's healthy. So it is, and then you have an early buy, which I don't know if I love for a younger team or a team trying to gel and figure things out, kind of disrupts what you're going at there. Although, that is a really big spot coming off the buy, if you want to get a winner too, because there's a winnable game in the East Rutherford, the home of FIFA football, playing them Jets. And then again, just a fricking nasty stretch versus the Pats, home versus the Lions, at Indy, at Buffalo, your Jets game again. - Altitude, Denver, home versus the Bears, at Lambo, home versus the Chargers. - Homecoming for all your green Bay. - Yes. - Yeah, you get the green Bay thing, and then you close on the road at New England. So let's, let's all name all the things that we said could go right. Chap Robinson Assens, the young cornerback works out from day one. Willis is actually good. Slowick was getting held back and Houston is actually calling good plays. This is a league average defense and a slightly below average offense. It's still awful hard to get to five wins. - Yeah, I don't see it. - It's just such a, like, I'm just best case scenario for everything on this roster. And all of it works out. Like you parlay all of that together as a silly hidden gems type of parlay. I still don't know that there's enough spots where you can turn some of these games into coin flips. - You're a touchdown dog in 10 games. You know, I was even started. Even if you do over a few, by a couple of points, you're still a meaningful dog in a lot of your games. Yeah, this is bad. You're a double digit dog. - I do see it. - Four times. - I do see a sneaky win late in the season, perhaps. - Okay. - Against Tommy DeVito and WKT and if the WKT is a resting player, it's like that's a spot I guess. You know what, I think that's your best chance. You play Buffalo in New England, maybe the playoff positioning's locked up. And people with under four and a half have to sweat, but man, I'm not looking at a lot of spots. There's zero prime time games. No real goofy travel spots. Kind of a straightforward, hey, you're a shitty team playing a bunch of good teams. - Yeah, a bunch of teams, a bunch of teams you're playing against, also get a couple extra days to prepare for you. Travel is difficult. A lot of cold weather games and the back half of the season, although if you're a possession-run heavy team, maybe you're more well equipped to handle the cold weather than heel teams in years past. But yeah, this is pretty terrible. Terrible outcome five wins does feel like That's the moon. Yeah, some these somehow some way something has Happened to other teams on your schedule who have Miracle we didn't get a dolphins Thursday night came maybe they'll flex on I don't know Is there no time. Yeah, you said that there's no Another weird little Quirk and this doesn't like affect them because it's not like a team that's you know in the mix for anything but all of their division games are in couplets Hmm it's week seven and eight eleven and twelve and seventeen and eighteen so you played two division Opponents in a row three times. Huh. I don't know that that happens very often that feels weird to me boom boom boom boom boom boom boom Yeah, that's fine All right, well if Josh Allen and Drake may both get hurt You could have You could have a five win season Otherwise, I think you are I mean what do you are you scouting elite past rushers or elite wide receivers in college football if you're a Miami dolphins fan If you have the number one overall pick I think you're trading Yeah, but you're in that top five probably Oh Man, I'd want to get a haul and then I'd want to trade I'd want to trade back and then trade up as well and take like a Really good defender whether it's an ed rusher or a top corner again and then also take another offensive lineman And then and then I and then I would just take like three or four stabs at skill position You either see your four-throw. Yeah, okay, interesting. Yeah, quality just try to find try to find a poohka What what is the? Probably distribution for you get to the end of the season and you're you have you a have figured out what you have in Willis and be you like it And up that that's where your plan is going forward I think probably half the time you it's either hey, this isn't incomplete because the rest of the roster so bad We got to give him another shot or hey, this worked out he was decent You know, and I think half the time it's like hey in a bigger sample size against a team that you know They can prepare for him every week That's the other knock that actually has some credence when people make cases against will equal us. It's like Hey, you know, this wasn't on their radar that we were gonna face this quarterback We're prepping over the last few weeks knowing we have love coming up and then oh See how I like I wonder how much of Malik willis is excellence as a backup was Like acno is with floor You know kind of coming up with game friends that really surprised people People in the chat like why wouldn't they still look at quarterback? It's an outer failure of a season and Willis is clearly not gonna be the guy Then yeah, you're not trading the pick you're looking at Hey, I'm taking that and yeah, Jeremiah Spitz would be fun No, despite between as that in a while a fun young Starwider see yeah be cool, so Okay, all right well I mean, just real quick as we mentioned four and a half the win total pretty much everywhere juice to the under You get like also 125 if you want it over there The other thing about the other bad thing about Willis Andy is that he's gonna be in a negative game state in a lot of these games So he's gonna have to throw I kind of one I kind of want to take like his rushing arts over if you want to bet on him positive it's just like Guy ends up like 500 yards rushing. Yeah, I don't know what his total is. I'd have to see if that's even up Yeah, there's no real best to be made unlike Awards obviously here was we mentioned the AFC East is 40 to one Super most 350 to one which is a big one HN You could bet overs on him if you think he's volume guy, but he's another one who's had some injuries here over the past year or two and with a volume guy like that you worry about that as well, so I'm not I don't love long term bets that are you know, just minus 110 where there's a big tail to the downside like that like an injury so If you want to get squirrely with this team, I guess I'm not sure what the Chris Johnson defensive rookie the air Maybe has like five picks. I'm not sure there's a squirrely take here Not only to Sad state of things I wish I just I guess I just wish they had done a different direction on the hood coach higher And the offense coordinator and then I would be like This is the kind of team that you will take the points with weekend leak out although maybe there's like a good amount of Like bet on them in the first half outside of a field goal, you know what I mean? In the portion of the game where they're running can help them kind of stay in the game, but before they have to go to You know throw throw the ball To get back to you know to try to steal Which I don't think will work No Charles S dolphins to finish fourth in the vision is minus 150 That's a hell of a price for someone to be dead last. It's tough I'd have to I'd have to run some numbers on my my lower level stuff with the jets Because I think that's you know that's your biggest risk even with even with injuries to May and Allen feels like those teams When six seven games seven eight games I Guess maybe not if the injuries are weak one, but man a lot would have to do wrong For them not to finish in the basement Basically how you feel about the jets you're making a parlay against the jets as well Well Hold your breath because we're about to turn the page Tynel Tennie Tennie final question for you. Nick Tiger kill plays this year He's not on a team. So as of right now if the season started today he would not be playing When was his injury week five work four five? It felt early so he's probably close to it was a bad one. I know Maybe I mean, I think someone would be Foolish to not get it. Oh deal back him's on a roster man. I know that's kind of what I was for it Like if he's looking like he's close to back Someone might kick the tires hunt him later in the summer if it's You know if it's still his rehab time is still pushed out a little bit I mean he's a pin him right Yeah, it could be like he's just yeah, he's just out there like they didn't just kind of parted ways Like we didn't reassign him or with you know, he's we're not extending him or however it's going up And it does feel like this is a move where a team that's a contender, but not the contenders like All right, he's out there. Let's get him on so I don't know. We'll see I Doubt that he's able to overcome this kind of injury be a meaningful contributor on a team Off the past 32 season. Yeah, that's a thing. You know, you know, these players that get signed late in the year if he had You know more like 14 15 months to recover Maybe you can come back and do something Okay, all right. Well, let's move on said said said dolphins, man Yeah, if you're a dolphin Look you're excited for the future And Ross is still younger, but Give it a stadium According to Calche the heat might get LeBron James I think nobody knows anything How would you go somewhere weird? I think Miami is a weird call Northern Pelican This is Justin Edwards co-host of the most accurate podcast join me and my team of Jennifer Aikens John Paulson and more from 4 for 4.com as we go over a litany of fantasy football conversations Focus squarely on helping you when you're league looking for start-sitting advice the best weekly streaming options and must add waiver wire Pickups for your fantasy team check out the most accurate podcast for all of that and everything in between with Data-driven analysis to help you get into the fantasy football promise land find 4 for 4's the most accurate podcast on all streaming platforms