Speaker 1Footy. It's the podcast that stops the nation. Two units, one cup. It's back. It's my favourite time of the year.
Speaker 2Every runner, every single chance, every query, we line up the international form and the locals. You've dug your head into the internationals. This is a must listen.
Speaker 1I'm keen. We give our top tens, our $100 betting strategies, some plays for perhaps a boxed first four. And it doesn't end there, mate. There's a bonus. I've done the form for a few other races on the Flemington program. Well, let's get stuck into it.
Speaker 3Twilight payment. What a ride. What a win. And a cup we'll never forget. Has won it from Tiger Moms. The lead narrowly. Here's Prince of Penzance coming on down the outside. Prince of Penzance for Michelle Payne. That's right. Who do you think you are? Maccabi Deaver. The nation roars for a hero. She's starting to wind up. But a champion becomes a legend. Maccabi Deaver has won it.
Speaker 2Hello, listeners, and welcome to Two Units, One Cup. It is the podcast that stops a nation. Each and every year, Salts and I, we dive into the 24 runners of the Melbourne Cup and do our best to find the winner, find our top ten selections. We'll give you our $100 betting plays as well. Nick Foote is my name. Dave the Salton Street Law, he's here as well. Mate, I think this is about our fifth edition of Two Units, One Cup now.
Speaker 1I'm excited, mate. And also the first one that you're not hung over as well. I am just.
Speaker 2I'm elevating into fatherhood. You're sensible. The due date's today. So we might only get through 10 runners. We better hurry up. I've actually got to open a book. Who's going to finish first or who's going to come first, my child or Strictly Business in the Cup? So we might get to those odds. They're in the exotics part of the show.
Speaker 1The other year, I would have made the same joke about night's choice. I know. So weird things happen, man.
Speaker 2Weird things happen. It's so true. We're also going to preview a few races at Flemington this year. We're not going to just do the one race. We're only here for bloody an hour's salt. So why give the listeners and the viewers one race?
Speaker 1Well, everyone in Melbourne literally gets the day off work. Yeah. And it's not the day off work just for three o'clock. There's other things to get involved in. The racing starts at like 10 a.m. or some shit.
Speaker 2Exactly. It's brilliant. We're going to do a runner by runner at Mortlake as well a little bit later on. It's Mortlake Cup Day. Hey, before we get into and start looking forward to Tuesday, let's talk about yesterday, which was Derby Day. And what a magnificent day it was again for punters.
Speaker 1Yeah. You missed out if you steered clear because last year it shot straight. It shot fair. The bookies copped a hammering on the first day of the carnival last year on Derby Day because the market was right. Yesterday, the market for a big day. Can you remember the market being so spot on? Like the Roaring Sun winning the first. Yes, he was six bucks, but he was the waller runner that was hammered from opening. He was the one that was hitting markets as well. He might've even touched $5. He might have the autumn sun preparation or the autumn boy preparation. You know, the couple of guineas up there, maybe drop him to a Doncaster. He looks a nice horse. The market smashed Lady Shenandoah the next episode late in the piece. It got Regal Ambition wrong, but the majority of winners on the day. It still had the weight of cash though. It was still clearly the best bet. Yeah. Either from their opening price or in that last sort of 10 minutes, got whacked up. So it was a great start to the carnival. No, we're one nil up.
Speaker 2Yeah, we are. A quarter time. We are. Or be it. Hey, in the next episode in the Coolmore, that like, just in terms of when we talk about
Speaker 3these, when we
Speaker 2talk about limp ratings, just seeing Zara extricate, like exposed a little early, my goodness, like the head carriage of the horse, just how it just wants it. That was, it was bloody, that put, it was a few little hairs on the back of my neck,
Speaker 1you know? This was how my limper meter read during the race. So he's in the, he's in the running line, the best run in racing flying for fun head as well. I love watching when they're three, four pairs back in the running line, grandstand side, just all coiled up in straight races. It is a thing of beauty because you know, they're going to get clear. Yep. So when he hit that running line, I was like this, and then he peels him off and I go like this and I'm at full limp, full mast. And then I think he's going to put them away and I'm about to go like that. But then St. Goddard comes up the inside, good run, like great run, wasn't the place to be on the straight. He fought back and I started going like this a little bit. And then the concluding stage is the last 20 meters. It was just full limp.
Speaker 2Oh, I am the introduction of the limper meter. We need graphics. We need a team in to get
Speaker 1this. It's like, um, like the fire danger rating. It's like catastrophic limp.
Speaker 2Okay. Well, if it was catastrophic limp for like the next episode, what was the limp rating on Shiza alibi in the golden eagles day? Yeah, that was as sick a watch as you will ever see. And I know like, well, I'm a Shiza alibi man. I mean, I'm just a good horseman, but the fact that she now finishes her preparation with just the one win, it's a tough read in the form guide, isn't it?
Speaker 1You look back and you go, well, on paper, wasn't that a weird ass prep? You know, it was going to stay in Victoria. It was going to stay there. It was going to stay in Victoria, but then goes to take on the best horse in the country then comes back down. She's probably in her right race once this preparation and she went and won it. But, um, yeah, it was disappointing. My initial reaction is like any punter. Oh, what a slaughter. Well, he's not, he's not going to get back on Luke Nolan. Then I go, I've let the dust sit a little bit like, well, I was also like, I need to watch the replay, but also what a slaughter. Yeah. Then I go and watch the overhead and I just, you know, just have no idea what else he could have done. Like the reason autumn glow went, won that race last year. And she has only lost once is she does have that tactical speed to go and sit outside the later. Like she still showed some good speed, but there was a lot of speed outside. He got her one off, but then that running line was around him straight away. And he was just in the washing machine the whole time. Like she literally never got clear the whole race. There wasn't one move that he possibly could have done from start to finish. I think that doesn't leave her in a washing machine, which is victim of circumstance.
Speaker 2I agree. And I think as well, because it's Luke Nolan and he's not an absolute top liner in terms of the jocks, there's going to be more criticism and pressure for him to lose that ride. But, um, quite contrasting watches those two. And in terms of the Derby, just quickly, before we get into some tips, um, the Sydney form stood up, didn't it? And I thought, I think we, like I had, we spoke about this on Thursday. I thought the Sydney form was better leading in, but at some point it's always challenging, weak state switches, perhaps afterthoughts, but Stormy Marco was pretty impressive. Yeah.
Speaker 1He got the best ride in the race as well. James McDonald just put him to sleep and then for some reason, yeah, for some reason, all those on pace wanted to carve each other up around the first bend and then still down the back. So it was always going to set up for a back marker. He put him to sleep and well, look, the right horse is one. Hasn't he? Um, Lady Shenandoah too, you know, we said she should be, should have been $1.80. Well, it says, I guess we're wrong. Cause she should have been $1.10.
Speaker 2She's absolutely destroyed them. Oh, it was a complete nutter track. Better the spring while played. Yep. I had the, um, I was just keeping tabs of my heart rate. I went down when she peeled out of the 300, I went down to 44 beats.
Speaker 1How good was it when pillow fight kicked up and that left Surfenberg wide because he had her in a good spot.
Speaker 2I don't even know. I didn't watch a single horse in the race and I haven't watched the race back. All I did was just watch poetry in motion. I have not reviewed the race. Haven't looked at it. I can watch multiple horses at once.
Speaker 1And I'm telling you, he had her one off the fence and then Surfenberg got caught wide. So he just said, well, I'm going to get your back. Concord Connie's to my inside. Like, honestly, that was over with a thousand again. I know the Persempre form kind of stood up though. It did. Cause she was good. Yeah. She's a good horse. She's a good horse. It was just, she bumped into a good one on the day. It took six bucks about, um, Lady Shenandoah. I don't know, about six weeks ago. Did you? Oh, that's a great point. I got lucky that a lot of good horses. Yeah, of course. But sometimes you get unlucky. But how unlucky do you get in futures betting? So you take one when it swings around your way. And she's a miler. She's a miler, Nick.
Speaker 2Yes. I've been saying it for a long time. She's a miler. She is. Uh, let's move on to the track conditions at Flemington. Let's, let's start looking forward now, Saltsy, because Tuesday it's notoriously, and it's notoriously a tricky day, Salts. Yes. Cup day for punting. Well, that is actually correct. That is actually a hundred percent warranted, um, unlike Derby day. But, uh, what can we expect with the weather and the track conditions? Because, um, the track played bloody well
Speaker 1yesterday. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. It got that rain. It seems like it needed it. Got that rain, held a four. Um, wind played a bit of an impact, particularly the earlier races. It wasn't an easy day to lead and win though. Kept edging off the fence. The fact that that happened, you know, I think with the rail three meters, we've seen some dry track really fast. We've seen some very firm tracks cup day with the rail three meters, and it's been very difficult to make ground. We've also seen the opposite where a lot of rain has come and, and the fence is absolutely cast. I'm sort of thinking with the predicted conditions, Tuesday is going to be somewhere in between. I'm looking for horses that want to get off the fence. There's a little bit of a, a, uh, a South westerly, but it's not strong enough that I think it's going to impact the races. The weather Monday, three to 20 mils so that they just won't put any juice on it today. They'll let it recover. So I've honestly, I think if it gets that 20 mils monday and then it's clear on race day i can't see it being worse than a soft five because it's
Speaker 2really handling the juice at the moment it is just like it's just world class that facility just in terms of how it soaks it up and i think the the danger is always just the rain on race day isn't it in terms of what it does to it but if you get a little bit of time um for the track to just absorb we generally yeah we we sit here and we always not manifest but we always talk to the worse and i it constantly surprises us yeah
Speaker 1yeah it's flying there's a possible shower in the morning on race day but very minimal so i think it's going to race pretty well uh where they'll just sort of be rolling off the fence in the straight races though like look how advantageous it was to be drawn outside on the first day of the carnival with the fact that that win sort of south southwest that it is the place to be again on tuesday it will be on thursday it will be on
Speaker 2saturday we're just saying before we even start this show just how good is straight track racing if i just don't get how people don't like
Speaker 1it i just live for it sometimes it throws up some weird results yeah i just threw up a weird result in the fact that meridius didn't win because he should have absolutely killed him i tell you what
Speaker 2i would have made it seven from nine i had the two-bit play in the last i thought gg's mistruth so stiff that play she was a bit unlucky that bloody mayor um agarwood that i consistently kicked up for yeah she actually thought she torched me yeah she's costing me money left right and center that thing hey let's get a few tips in before we yeah um talk to the feature um we'll start off in race number four the shwep of essence plate salty over a thousand meters we love our straight tracks it's for the three-year-olds uh set weights and penalties um ollie go is a five dollar fifty favorite here james mcdonald rides for the michael hickmont stable uh for vea uh for bjorn baker and then peyton is the horse that you want to talk to on the third line at eight bucks i'm
Speaker 1within peyton manning i i tipped him the other day yeah it was 1200 but they scratch i wonder maybe that was because of a wet track i'm not sure but then they jumped him out on friday at flemington he jumped out really well they dropped him in trip i thought he's chasing the roman console was good zach lloyd on barrier 15 i reckon he'll be savaging the line yep
Speaker 2i thought a lot of people were going to be going to be going to be going to be going to be going to go um was a he's going to be a great winning chance but i think there's a little bit of jmac tax just associated with his price at the moment as favorite at five bucks fair enough but when
Speaker 1he crossed it's funny we're differing opinions when he crossed the line first up i said be surprised if this horse wins another race check out um has gone and won twice since i don't think i'd be 10 i don't know how that form translates into being favorite down there no i don't trade on flemington carnival i don't
Speaker 2think i'd be uh hitching my wagon ding first one for the day to uh to the checkout well last year we hitched
Speaker 1our wagon to the caulfield cup form the winner of the caulfield cup won the cup we just didn't have anything on it that's a bloody good point but
Speaker 2he just kept going through the line all i go yeah i don't know it's uh maybe a little bit of jmac factor uh race number six uh on the program this is uh a listed race over 1800 meters the usai plate uh sabaj is your three dollar favorite dark bonnet has been uh supported into five dollars and i'll tell you what through the winter we do get starved of boom horses dark bonnet was being talked about as cup hope at one stage salts and uh he's here on cup day albeit at listed level i
Speaker 1think he'll win this he's the best bet on cup day oh dark bonnet he's uh setup is terrific he went around favorite in that kunji can you trust him salts he's a bit of a keen he's going well this is why i can trust him nick so he's a bit keen last night over 2 000 meters they didn't go fast in that kunji he drew gate one the fence was way off that day and then he used all his energy trying to catch zurab on the corner and make up the deficit he had on the leader in the inferior going and he stuck on well this is why he set up today he's outstanding al duca draws barrier two magnus been drawn out ambassadorial al duca has a high cruising speed does it hurt you back in against our duca you've got our duca no covers i've i sent him packing a long time ago he sat wide in that um race at bendigo okay he hasn't been the same since he'll go forward he's got a nice cruising speed so the drop back in distance for dark bonnet with a horse like al duca engaged that edges out that keenness he ran a big figure last start in the wrong part of the track he's drawn out i really love wide gates on the circle flemington on tuesday i think it's going to play very similar like i mentioned before to uh saturday just gone so he can blend in craig williams one for one on him the speed the drop in distance the um the weight that he's got as well another kilo coming off his back i think he is the hardest horse to beat on cup day okay it's a big push for dark bonnet sabarge is a big class dropper yeah but he's also a big loser at the moment
Speaker 2yeah well yeah that's fair but he has been competing he's going nowhere near it and he's sort of last four or five starts yeah um yep he sees an easier race but dark bonnet their units you've heard at the best bet on cup day race eight's the amanda elliott this is a listed race 1400 meters renarsson looks a pretty handy
Speaker 1he does i got a lot of time for this horse he just broke the ratings when he won on debut at cramburn and very notably when he won that day at cramburn the runner-up of that race oh yeah yeah yeah that horse subsequently bumped in to milson's point last start um at caulfield in a race um a couple of other three-year-olds are coming through and that horse was only beaten one and a half lengths to milson's point well renarsson put what five on him absolutely destroyed him and then that horse is going to measure it up against some other three-year-olds that are in this race so that form lines out standing he goes around a dollar fifty last start he gets eyeballed badly by one not in the market that dropped out on the top of the straight and he still kept kicking so he's running fast times he's got some weight relief um the the only concern is under pressure last start like he laid in towards the fence and then he let the fence sort of guide him home a bigger track how does that work out but some speed's going to come out of this race high falls has come out beautiful you ran on saturday as well so i just think he goes forward controls things and he's one to follow after today he's got a big motor yeah and he's
Speaker 2been putting up some big figures as well as renarsson i just want to touch on mr natural quickly i i put up a bit of a reel around him after what was a geelong maiden on a wednesday and said this guy for lindsey smith is he's a black type winner in waiting and i got rinsed a little bit on that diabolical call was a few people getting stuck in but the jury's still out the jury is still out but he's on the second line of betting in a black type race at the moment i think he's too short i'm not betting into him i thought he was a ten dollar chance in this race to be totally fair so i'm staying out of this but well it's barely a diabolical call when you're single for the figures in the market now two starts later when the science when the next
Speaker 1episode debuted you and i went on a show and said this guy looks like your cool more winner so you get some right you get something wrong absolutely uh 12 months ago or something wasn't it yeah it was not that long no it was it was when he was it was at the sales it was when he
Speaker 2went through the ring i went that guy wins the cool more uh race number 10 this
Speaker 1is a benchmark 90 1400 meters it is and i like the feeling pretty hard done by he's won the fastest last 600 meters of the day and he literally never saw daylight he should have won it was a great return uh he goes well second up he handles all conditions he's much better suited at 1400 meters and again he's drawn out and i think he just blends in and rips home down the outside we absolutely
Speaker 2love that ever rain in the benchmark 90 there nice little scattering of tips for us around the main race but it is time now to dive into the 2020 26 melbourne cup and we'll start off uh just with an overview of the speed and how you think it's going to unfold uh i guess all the talk in the lead-up to this race is going to be oh you know are these are these runners that are stepping to 3200 meters are they going to be able to absorb a really high pressure two mile race is that how it looks on paper so it's well usually it is
Speaker 1it doesn't matter what the speed map looks like very regularly the melbourne cup is a genuine run and a staying test it's a it's a big handicap it's worth a lot of money it's not often that it's a sit up and dash home they're not
Speaker 2expecting a moody valley gold cup type no well that race was
Speaker 1a disgrace they dropped the 14 second rounding for home i know it was just awful farcicals the term i would have thought uh royal supremacy like mapping who's going to lead and stuff what's the point but there is enough pressure in the early stages they've got a long run to the first bend but royal supremacy will be up there with wine dark sea so you are will be prominent kislyar he is in that mooney valley gold cup and they would have learned he's won over 4 000 meters a dash home's not for him so my tactics with him would be to go forward and lead from the gate as well you'd think that they'll press forward mr monaco's got some pace goody two shoes was up there last year as well um i don't expect middle earth to be part of that speed but he gets a nice run from barrier one point of law they'll look for some cover um and then the rest will sort of just float around and look for a little bit of cover and to blend into the race at the right time i think there's enough that will roll forward from wide gates prior to the first bend before they make their order that that will make Make it a genuine enough gallop.
Speaker 2Let's get stuck into them, hey? Runner number one is Sons and Lovers. This is the first of five runners for Joseph O'Brien. My boy, DBM, Dylan Brown McMonigle rides. After the scratching of Defiantly, they've done a little bit of shuffling around of the whiteboard, and he hops on this six-year-old. They're at $23 in the market is Sons and Lovers, and he carries the top weight, and there's a reason why. It's because he's got one of the classier resumes of this field, Salts.
Speaker 1Yes, he still looks a little bit harshly treated with some of the form around him. He's won some Group 2s, some Group 3s, but he's never even tested a Group 1, and here he is top weight in a Melbourne Cup, but just the way it goes, it's a handicap race. He's proven as a stay of this guy, so he's got the time form rating to go with it. He's got the equal highest time form of the Europeans coming over, so he's got some good ratings. He's proven himself over 3,000 metres, so that's a huge tick to have actually won over 3,000 metres, and he wasn't stopping in that Dubai Gold Cup in the final furlong when that was over 3,200 metres, so he's got the stamina. I think he gets a nice run from that low gate as well. They'll sort of just put him to sleep. He's got some form around some others here. In the Kilton and Stakes at Leopardstown, he was runner-up there, but he beat home James J. Braddock, and he beat home Goody Two-Shoes as well that day, so I think he's got some genuine stamina, just a little bit of concern about him sort of sustaining like a long run under 57.5. That has to be the question.
Speaker 2Can he give this field weight and still be good enough?
Speaker 1Yep. He's won all with trust your instinct. I think he did beat him, but it was sort of back in September of 2025. That was over 2,400 metres. I don't have him as a winning hope, but just because he stays, and he's got a. A little bit of quality about him and the form around him,
Speaker 2I think he's a lock for top 10. Yep. I've got him in my top 10 as well. We're going to be giving ratings on each of these runners, winning hopes, top 10s, whether we're risking them or just flat out can't win. So they're going to be our four ratings for all of the 24 horses in this year's cup. Let's get to horse number two. This is Trust Your Instinct, an $8 chance. The second of five runners here for Joseph O'Brien, James McDonald gets on, which is just a magnificent addition to this run. Six weeks between runs. Joseph O'Brien said this guy wants hard and fast ground to showcase his turn of foot.
Speaker 1If Caulfield happened to be a fair track on Caulfield Cup Day, I thought this guy would have been a great Caulfield Cup horse because he's got a turn of foot. So he's win a couple back. It was in a small field, so it sort of tempers it a little bit. That was in the Curra Cup. He just went back in a small field and he floated off heels and he just went bang and he sprinted really sharply. And then following that, he goes to the Iris and Ledger Group 1. He starts $7.50 against some of the best stayers in the world. He's beaten by Scandinavia there. A runner up in that race was Queenstown. Queenstown actually ties in Kislyar. Queenstown's beaten Kislyar a similar margin to what Trust Your Instinct was beaten by Kislyar as well. So there's a little bit of tie in there. And that horse has gone on to perform in some really quality, group races as well. I think he's got really strong evidence that he's got a turn of foot, this guy. He doesn't have much tactical speed. I think he'll float back, but he's in the right hands with James McDonald to sort of pick his way through and have a patient ride because he'll need a patient ride. I don't know about. He's got that turn of foot. I don't know about him being that horse that's just going to be able to wind up from the 800. I mean, James McDonald going on any horse,
Speaker 2you just say, oh, great jockey booking. But genuinely, this is a great jockey booking. For Joseph O'Brien to put James McDonald on this horse.
Speaker 1Spot on, yeah. He's gone, well, the best local that we have. Yep. There are some question marks over him over 3,200 metres because he has that acceleration. He's 1 to 28, but another 400 metres is always a question mark. But he's got a good profile. I like when horses from overseas come over and they display change up speed because that's how our racing is done. I don't think the track's going to be too bad for him. Even if we, like I said, we get that rain on Monday, he's a leading hope. Yep. I've got him in my top 10. I wouldn't be ruling. He's in my top 10. I wouldn't be surprised if he won the race, but I'm not backing him.
Speaker 2Yep. Let's get to the first of the locals. It's Knight's Choice. His last win was in this race, Salts, in 2024. Reunites with Robbie Dolan, trained by John Simons and Sheila Laxon. He's currently $34 in the market. He's actually been going along okay, hasn't he? Ahead of this. I mean, he got under everyone's radars, except for people who has some sort of affinity with the saddlecloth he was probably wearing in 2024. Yeah, if your favorite movie was A Knight's Tale.
Speaker 1Exactly right. And you were a Heath Ledger fan, maybe you had something on.
Speaker 2It's a little bit of that. So I guess, is there enough of the 2024 version at 3,200 meters here to step up and cause perhaps another boil over?
Speaker 1He was sort of in and out in the lower part of my top 10 and he's ended up out of it. It wouldn't shock me if he ran sort of 9th or 10th just because. He can stay the trip. I've seen that in the past. But when he won, he did have that Bendigo Cup run to sort of tune him up a lot closer to the race. So we haven't seen him since the Caulfield Cup where he was poor. He ended up back like a bit went wrong, but he didn't exactly find the line. Prior to that, he was going well. He should have won the Herbert Power when Pinhole won and then Pinhole probably should have won that. It's a zig when you should have zagged type set up. What was the lead in that the Bart Cummins? Yeah. But Jua Cabot won. So that Moonee Valley Gold Cup, sorry. So that form sort of ties in. But yeah, look, dry track. He stays the trip, but I don't think he can win. He's got five more kilos than when he won a couple of years ago.
Speaker 2I'm just putting risking it. I'm not putting him in the can't win bucket because I am. I try not to make the same mistake twice. So I'm putting him in the can't win bucket. Okay. He's out of my top 10, but I'm risking him. No, that's what the rating is there for, isn't it? Is he out of your top 10? He's out of my top 10. So we've got winning hope, top two, risking it, can't win. I'm risking it. Okay. So yeah. Yeah. Okay. I thought you were saying he can win. No, I'm saying I'm risking him. Oh, okay. Nice. No, that would be sitting on the fence. Yeah. If I said he can win, but he's not in my top 10. Yeah. That's all right. Yeah. Cool. I'm glad we're working this out as we go. Let's get to number four. This is Middle Earth. He's a $13 chance for Kieran Ma. Mark Zahra steers, the right man to have in the saddle in this race. Last start eighth in the Cox-Platon. He's the slow burn, Middle Earth. He's the slow burn that I sense is just being timed to the minute. I think he's a great chance, Salts. I've got some futures on him at 50 at the moment, Middle Earth. So he's one of these ones that I think can win. I'm not backing him at $13. I'm sitting back and just hoping that Mark Zahra can pinch runs from barrier one, but he is definitely in my way. Winning hope. Yeah.
Speaker 1Bucket. I'm on him early as well, but this show is about whether or not people listening can back him on the day. And I think that they can. I think he's a really strong winning hope. I love his preparation.
Speaker 2So it's $13 in terms of a price for him on the day. Do you think this is fair at the moment?
Speaker 1I think it's absolutely fair. Yeah. This guy stays the trip. He placed last year. The two horses that beat him last year had very lightweights and the winner beat the handicap and was flying and he tanked up and they smashed the rest of the field as well. Barrier one, Mark Zahra puts him to sleep, obviously a great jockey booking, won multiple Melbourne cups. And his whole preparation has been about this day. And it was last year as well, but the difference this time is they sent him to Queensland too. So this guy has proper miles in his legs and he's coming through fast races. He was well beaten in the Underwood, red hot, fast race, produced the Cox Plate winner, has produced winner on winner, the Caulfield Cup winner, a Cox Plate placing in Birdman. I thought he was good through the line in the Caulfield Cup. His last 200 meters relative to the rest of the field was building like a stayer. And then the Cox Plate was a fast race and he's doing his closest work on the line. He's got a great platform. He's got the miles in the legs. He's coming through fast races. He does no work from a low draw. And I've said a long time out that he's Australia's in terms of local hopes that have been here for a few preparations. He's the best chance. And that's what I have him as. I think he's a really good winning hope. Okay. That's a big push.
Speaker 2Middle Earth number four there for Saltsy, a very big winning hope. I've also got him as a winning hope. Middle Earth and the market agrees he's $13 and he's right at the very, very pointy end. Horse number five. We get the fourth look at him Salts, Vauban. Gay Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Jordan Childs rides the nine year old. He could be one of the most maligned runners. That's in Melbourne cup history. He ran six last year, back for the fourth crack at the cup. He's Gay Waterhouse and Adrian Bott's only accepted runner. And can the switch to that stable, perhaps Saltsy, can the Waterhouse Bott polish get him the Melbourne cup?
Speaker 1No, he's got none. Look, he had that big weight in the Geelong cup. He was only fair. Second up since May to 3,200 meters is a terrible setup. And that's all I have to say on him.
Speaker 2The last 12 months have produced a bit of a mixed bag of results for him. So he's won a group three. He's come through a different sort of lead-in, hasn't he, into this particular race. But I'm just getting a sense around Vauban. This is the absolute what racing just does to people. Been with him for three years in a row. I'm putting him in my top 10, and I might throw him into some exotics as well. I think he can run a little bit of a race and sneak under the radar, Vauban, as a little bit of a Melbourne Cup warhorse. Let's get to number six now. It is Enfjar, $21 chance in the market. Roger Varian trains for Ray, Mr. Inbetween, Shoesmith, Dawson, as Salts likes to call him. He was third in the Caulfield Cup. You were pretty keen on him in that race. He now steps to 3,200 meters. Is this a negative for him or a positive?
Speaker 1It's a negative for a couple of reasons. The first of those is they put some Equacast on. So a lot of these internationals, when they're first off the plane, it's hard to trust the gear changes because they might have just been wearing them back home. Whereas he's had that run in the Caulfield Cup. Now, Equacast goes on. So he's already a question mark at 32, and he's just got that negative gear change to rise in distance. Ray Dawson was actually saying his fitness gave out a bit in the Caulfield Cup. He beat home Cosmic Crusader. It was a great each way play. He had the run in trend. He just found a couple better on the day. The international form followers were trying to tell us that Wine Dark Sea was a better horse than him. He absolutely smashed him. He's a bit weak. Yeah. But that negative gear change for a horse that is already a question mark beyond 2,400 meters. Before I saw that gear change, I actually thought that he could run well. I didn't think he could win, but I thought he could run top 10. But I saw that, and I'm just putting a line through him.
Speaker 2Okay. Well, he does get a very good run. He's got a very nice run in transit from Barrier 8, if there's any positives to look for, Amphijar, is he will be afforded the opportunity to run two mile from that nice draw. I'm putting him in the risking at column, though, Salty. Yeah, ditto. Number seven, Royal Supremacy. Kieran Ma, Ben Allen combined. Barrier 21, they've plucked out. Last start, very disappointing. 15th in the Caulfield Cup, 2,400 meters. Led them up. And coasted when probably should have got going, when should have hit go time. But I don't think he was still good enough. I was with him in the Caulfield Cup. It'd be some form turnaround, you'd think, to be winning the Melbourne Cup at $46.
Speaker 1Yeah, he backed the tempo off at the wrong time, Jamie Spencer, but the horse was beaten in 17 lengths. Yep. So he just went shit house. So you can't blame the ride. He went terribly. His leading run is terrible. He was sort of second up off a fresh in there. As well. And he ran in last year's Melbourne Cup and finished 15th. I think he's got absolutely none.
Speaker 2And he's drawn barrier 21. So Ben Allen's going to have to chance his arm from that wide draw, you'd think as well. Yeah, totally. Yeah, he's got, he'd have none if he was drawn barrier four. I'm putting him in the can't win bucket as well. Wyanduck C is your eighth runner in this year's Cup. Harry Charlton trains. Damien Lane hops on board this five year old. We've seen him in the Caulfield Cup. He was well backed in the Caulfield Cup. Made a move, was shade weak, tough draw here, barrier 23, and we've already had a look at him and Salts. I didn't really like what I saw.
Speaker 1Yeah, I don't need to talk about his international form because we've seen him. Haven't we? He's got a good time form rating, whatever, but put that in the bin, he was terrible in the Caulfield Cup. And since the Caulfield Cup, they put Equicast and concussion plates on. Talk about the two most negative gear changes you can have for a horse rising in distance. I just want to put a big, fat, bold texter through his name. He'll be nowhere near it.
Speaker 2It looks like we're agreeing a lot at the moment as well. I think he's a can't win as well off what we saw in the Caulfield Cup. It would just be some reversal of form.
Speaker 1We have seen it was, I think it was Akita Sushi. No, not Akita Sushi. A couple of years ago, there was a horse in the Caulfield Cup that was absolutely disgraceful. Got to Flemington and ran well out of it. So we have seen it before. An international? Yes, but I can't see it happening with him because of those gear changes.
Speaker 2Asterix is the ninth runner in this year's edition. Chris Waller trains. Jai McNeil steers the eight-year-old, 12th last start in the Caulfield Cup. Does the 2022 New Zealand Derby form stand up in the 2026?
Speaker 1I don't think so. He's got a couple of duck eggs next to his name leading in. He sort of plugged the way from back in the field in that Caulfield Cup, but he's an eight-year-old. It looks like he went through that purple patch of form in the summer of last year leading into the early part of the autumn, but I've got some big question marks on him staying and his recent forms just not here. Mark, it hasn't been expecting him to do anything and doesn't expect him to do anything again on Tuesday. Yep.
Speaker 2So only positives I can make for Asterix at 67 bucks is he's got some Queensland residuals and he's in the camp of Chris Waller. Let's move on to goody two-shoes. Horse number 10 here, Joseph O'Brien, Wayne Lorden rides. This is the first of the mares in this year's edition. We have three mares racing in this year's cup. She was only past fit two days prior last year. So it's been a little bit more stress-free for Joseph O'Brien this time around. She's an eight-year-old and she's at $26 in this year's edition. Do you give her much of a chance?
Speaker 1Well, look, we know that she stays the trip. She did win a couple back at Goodwood on a firm track that was over 2,800 meters. On the same day, Hopewell Rock actually ran better time. She's just mixed her form. When she came over last year, she was in a good shape. Last time out, you know, she'd won three in a row. One of them was over 3,200 meters. You know, she was okay prior to coming out here. She beat the handicapper that day. She had, what, 51 and a half kilos. She had a beautiful run in transit. I think sort of her birthdays came. Like, it was the right time to get to that race. She had the right run in transit last year. Another year on, not bringing in the same form, not bringing in the same ratings. I'm going to risk her despite the fact that she does stay. So, you know, if she snuck into the top 10, it wouldn't be a huge shock because, you know, sometimes the horses that finish 10th, they're beaten like 13 lengths. You know, you can be smashed, but round out the top 10. And that could be her because she stays. But I don't think she's bringing in the same form as she was last year.
Speaker 2Yeah, I don't think she can win. I'm going to put a complete line through her. I think she's drawn really awkwardly as well. She's going to have to run probably 3,200 meters. And more from barrier 19. So I'm happy to put a line through Goody Two Shoes in this year's edition.
Speaker 1That horse I was speaking of was Warp Speed. It got beaten like 18 lengths in the Caulfield Cup, was runner up to night's choice. But it had 3,200 meter form. That was the difference.
Speaker 2Number 11 is Juakibo, $11. Kieran Ma, Sam Clipperton picks up this ride on the six-year-old gelding. He is a last start winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He's also won the Metrop as well as start prior. So he's a good guy. He is in absolute career-best form, 55 kilos. I think my negative on him, Salts, before I get to you, is just that farcical run nature of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Is that the best trial leading into a Melbourne Cup where there's going to be a lot more speed? And it's not his fault because he's done everything to control and win that race. But now he's a by-product of that particular race.
Speaker 1It's not a great lead-in. If there's question marks on you staying, I've got some big question marks about this horse over 3,200 meters. The lead-in is one of them. But regardless of that lead-in, I had some question marks on him staying before that. He's been to a Sydney Cup before. He didn't stay. He's been to a Chairman's 26. He didn't stay. Now he is in better form than he was last preparation in that autumn. But I just remember one day in a Manion over 24, Mr. Monaco sat 3-4 wide, no cover. This guy had the run of the race. And Mr. Monaco was still tougher than him. But he only just beat Mr. Monaco last start. And Mr. Monaco was flushed out early and keen. I reckon out of that Moonee Valley Gold Cup, Mr. Monaco is the one that could turn the tables on Dua Kibo. He was poor in a Sydney Cup, but he had some veterinary issues. I don't think he'll stay the trip. I'm happy to risk him. I don't have him in my top 10. And $11? I can't believe he's $11 and he's stable, mate. Middle-earth coming through Australia's best and fastest races that's proven at the trip is $13.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah, I'm totally happy to risk Dua Kibo as well. Are you saying he can't win or are you just prepared to risk him? No, I'm saying he can't win. Okay, can't win line three. I'm just, I'm risking him. Just, I know I've made the negative point around not being the greatest fitness lead-in, but just in the camp of Kieran Maher, I just don't think you can write them off in terms of how they're prepared for these big staying features. Let's get. Let's get to number 12 now. This is Hopewell Rock, $11. George Bowie, Zach Lloyd. is in absolute fine form at the moment just staying in sydney and delivering the goods up there uh this is george's first ever runner in the race um salts i have a sense that you might be pretty keen on this guy this guy's
Speaker 1the one in terms of assessing international form coming over for a melbourne carp it's as bullish as i've been on one really that i can remember i love so much about what this horse does uh let's have a look at his form and how it ties a few in when he won at goodwood on the first of august he ran faster time than goody two shoes he also gave four kilos to small fry and beat him three quarters of a length well point of law gave half a kilo to small fry and beat him by a you know a length or so in the geelong cup so you can actually tie him in directly now with point of law and then he goes to the e-bore where he comes off the back of opportunity who's a good horse opportunity was uh beaten by emfjar who's a good horse who's come over and measured up in a corfield cup so you can tie that in but it's the way that this guy travels when he won a couple back he traveled he traveled he traveled they press the button at the 400 he sprints he gets there at the two and then he holds off small fry so he's he's got that profile the way that he races that i think will really suit a melbourne cup where he'll stay on the bottle a long time he'll be very comfortable a long way into the race and then when he quickens his turn of foot isn't as sharp as trust your instinct but it's there and he can build and then once he gets to his top he can hold it we saw that a couple back at goodwood and we saw that in the e-ball last start he was beaten ahead but he should have won he had the back of opportunity he was tanking tanking tanking comes back sprints past that horse that horse opportunity is a good horse it's gone on to run in some really quality races but the rider dropped the whip at the 200 he was responding and then the rider dropped the whip and he just sort of didn't keep lengthening the same way i think if the rider holds on to the whip he wins that race and then he would have just automatically qualified he probably would have got more of a penalty his time form strong it's 114 but i think he's actually better than that i reckon he's the only horse in the race that's beaten the handicapper i think he's a better horse than sons and lovers and he gets three kilos off him does the travel
Speaker 210 weeks between runs the rise to 32 100 meters they all have to be question marks
Speaker 1oh they are anytime a horse hasn't done something it's a question mark but the it's the way that he races that gives me really good faith that he's going to say the trip because he just relaxes and he just travels yeah he travels he does everything right and to run out a strong staying contest that's what you need to do you look at the past winners of the melbourne cup a lot of other than the night shows was like a weaving run a lot of them at the 800 to 1000 you can point to him you go this horse is going to be in the finish
Speaker 2michaki and i watched him gallop last tuesday at um flemington at breakfast with footy and he was he was absolutely having a crack out there in the morning just a real pipe opener he would have been he would have been all coiled up at werribee barreling around that triangle track and would have just loved freeing the legs out of bloody headquarters watching their gallops at werribee
Speaker 1is good and it's good that racing.com has the money to do that but i think it's a good thing that they even put the times but you don't need to be caught up in what the times are and stuff like that like they're leading gallop wine dark sea went over a second faster over the final furlong then emf jar leading into the caulfield cup it's just all about the work they've put in behind the
Speaker 2scenes we're chucking hope we'll rock in the winning hope chances he's the one to beat okay there you go continue watching though we'll get more 13 one smooth operator tim fitzsimmons combines with declan bates here 16 in the race last year and finished 16th now tackles it as a nine-year-old gelding at 81 gets blinkers on going terribly been here before just cannot win yep can't win one smooth operator let's get to number 14 soul of spain who's a 34 chance the market this is chris waller's best hope tommy berry on board a six-year-old here who we've seen as a runner-up in the sydney cup in the autumn and i'd say it's almost career peak performance stepping to 3200 meters as well so he'll only be encouraged going to two miles again um and the combination of waller and berry with an economical barrier looks pretty
Speaker 1good so it's he's one for your multiples i think he can run really well uh you mentioned he stayed before in a sydney cup his first up run at hawksbury was good he was good in a chelmsford he found the line when he was favorite and beaten by jua cabo in the kingston town when the euphrates won he was smashed by the kingston town in the kingston town when the euphrates won he was smashed by the kingston town in the kingston town when the euphrates won he was smashed by the kingston town when the euphrates won he was smashed by the kingston town in the kingston town um but then i don't know sometimes the horses can just have an off day come back i thought he he was actually good enough in the corfu cup making that early move he was the one that started that first wave but then once they he started that first wave then the horses that were on speed in the right part of the track fended him off but i thought he actually held his ground
Speaker 2okay i thought i put i marked that as a massive positive for him and i thought he was actually good enough in the corefield cup for him and i thought he was actually good enough in the corefield cup for a race like the melbourne cup for a race like the melbourne cup with the two mile in mind chris waller he was he was at the corfield cup with this as his absolute grand final step into two miles so i saw that as a massive tick in terms of fitness wise being exposed early and holding on really well
Speaker 1yeah i i reckon he just lacks the the quality of a couple of others so i'm not going to back him to win but in terms of your multiples he goes in for me yeah he's
Speaker 2in a bit of mine and a nice big fat futures at triple figs as well but soul of spain certainly goes in my multiples as well so i'm not going to back him so i'm giving him a top 10 chance uh a top 10 hope this year zaran is horse number 15 at 26 kieran ma ben mellum barrier 11 ran fourth last start in the corefield cup has had an interesting lead in so uh was favorite for the corefield cup uh after that dynamic win in the naturalism was then beaten 18 lengths in the turnbull two back definitely improved in the corefield cup to run into fourth place but i'm finding him a little hard to line up at 3200 yeah
Speaker 1his work through the line was in the corefield cup was quite good and he sort of only barely avoided that fall but does it say he's crying out for two mile the fact that he finished well i think it's too much of a question mark you know his best numbers before he came here were 2 000 meters 2400 meters he we've seen him in australia now he doesn't have any ratings in australia at this weight standard i don't have him in my top 10 i don't have him in my top 10 um but it wouldn't surprise me if he snuck his way into the top 10 but i don't think he can win the race yeah i'm risking
Speaker 2zaran as well let's get to horse number 16 so you are a 15 chance rachel king bjorn baker combined with the bendigo cup winner from last week and rumors are going around that he's just still running he's still kicking and he's still finding from the win in the bendigo cup he's on a four race winning streak this guy the randwick city cup the colin stephen quality the atc st ledger and the bendigo cup so certainly inferior races but geez winning form is very good form and 3200 meters unknown but he just looks to be so resilient and i would go as far to say salts from barrier seven i think so you are is the map horse of the melbourne cup yeah he should get
Speaker 1a nice run and he's just tough you know he just he had everything to suit in that bendigo cup the way the track was playing but he just sort of keeps finding his form is a fair rung below you know barclay square flashed home in that bendigo cup against the patent was good and um point of law took care of him pretty easily at geelong and like i know there was a there was a bit of talk about you know well before the bendigo cup you know he's won three staying races in a row there've been group races listed races they were weak like if you wanted to win your way into a melbourne cup there's races where you can go and win them jewel cabo had to go and do it he won a metro but he wasn't even in so they were picking off weak staying races so although he's building a picket fence i think others bring in stronger form but in terms of top 10 hopes he ticks a lot of boxes because he just keeps trying he's
Speaker 2right up the tippy tippy top of my tips and he'll be featuring heavily in my 100 betting play a little bit later on he's absolutely flying at the moment and i just i just love his resilience every time he's sort of headed he just keeps finding and you're going to need that in the melbourne cup but he is just drawn to perfection for rachel king and uh so you are i will be with him uh on tuesday let's move on to future history now horse number 17 a 51 chance greg hickman jamie mellum hops on board the nine-year-old and it was almost like the sub vest on it was back they threw the sub vest on when the the japanese horse went down stinger glass and it was a late call up and he's just been a bit of a warrior this guy really hasn't he like he has he's just what is he 47 career starts for for 10 wins so he's a bit long in the tooth old future history but they'll just be wrapped to have him running around on
Speaker 1tuesday he competed in the melbourne cup in 2023 and he didn't get near them he has won over 2400 or 2800 meters in the past but that was a baguette a race that was a lot weaker than this his opposition that day were um weaker than what he faces look i thought excuses in that Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He was Flashed out early, faced the breeze on that slow tempo, and then he sort of just kept plugging away. He didn't have the sprint of others. So it wasn't a disgrace there, but I just don't think he can win the race. He just lacks the quality. He's nine years old, and his best numbers are behind him. You're saying Jamie Mellon's not going back-to-back?
Speaker 2She's not going back-to-back. Okay, yep. I'm happy to say that Jamie Mellon, I'm just going to put my stake in the ground. I'm going to stand for something. That's gutsy. And I'm going to say Jamie Mellon's not going back-to-back this year. Number 18, James J. Braddock. The import at $15 for Joseph O'Brien, international, I should say, and Craig Williams, a four-year-old entire. And I was absolute scenes at the barrier draw yesterday. Our mate, our man, Gareth Hall, he's in the ownership group. He got his opportunity to get up there and pick the barrier, and he was drawn out last to go up onto the catwalk and pick the barrier, and there was only one barrier left. And it was 24, the widest in the business. Sorry, G-Man. That's unlucky. But this guy, let's talk to his actual form, Salts. He's potentially one of the better-weighted internationals, you'd probably say. O'Brien was particularly bullish about him, his progression, in terms of probably earlier as well when he was third in an Epsom. His form's probably tailed off a little bit from there.
Speaker 1Yeah, no, I think he'd need sort of 48 to win. I don't think he's up. I don't think he's out well-weighted. Okay. He won that derby trial, and then he was soundly beaten in the Epsom derby. He was smashed in the Irish derby. And then his lead-in race, he was beaten by a couple of his rivals here. So he was beaten by Sons and Lovers, and there was another one in that race as well. So he hasn't been beaten by Sons and Lovers. His time form's 1.12, so a bit lower than a few of the others, at sort of 1.15. So relative to that, he's probably got his right weight. But his lead-in form is just not quite what we saw sort of earlier on. He needs to recapture some form from a few runs ago. He's got some stamina potential. Look, the barrier, like, it's obviously not a positive. But, you know, wide draws can win the Melbourne Cup. That doesn't really matter.
Speaker 2I probably would have squeezed in my 10 if he drew a gate, James. Okay. Jay Braddock, I just like the fact that he's run a couple of figures that would certainly have him in this. And just the fact that he's so lightly raced and progressive, I think he's got the right international profile to be performing well in this race. But I think there's going to be a little bit to ask of Craig Williams from Barrier 24.
Speaker 1Yeah, that sort of big field handicap, you know, he didn't meet expectation against the older horses last time out. Yeah. He would surprise me. He's not been to the trip, so who knows? Maybe he's going to relish it. But he would surprise me. He doesn't get his way into my top 10.
Speaker 2Let's get to Kislyar now. This is Saddlecloth19. Joseph O'Brien trains. Bowie Mertens gets a good ride here, I think, for this five-year-old. Last start, we've seen him. It was in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. And I think he's the smoky in the field. He didn't have the turn of foot in that farcically run race. And he's beaten defiantly. Over 4,000 meters. And defiantly was the horse that was scratched yesterday. But he was a longtime favorite for this race. And that was his career peak figure over 4,000 meters when he beat defiantly. And, look, I think the market, they certainly came for him in that Moonee Valley Gold Cup. They were jumping out of trees to back him. And I think the market now is judging him too heavily on that Flemington run. When I'm looking at it through the lens, this is a terrific blowout to have a run on Australian soil. For your grand final. And you've got in now to the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 1No, you're right. He's got that Queenstown form, which can tie in Trust Your Instinct. Obviously, he stays. He's won over 4,000 meters. He began his career as a hurdler. So, he's got that stamina that you need to run a tough 3,200 meters. And I'm in the camp of you. The market was all over him there. All over him. Absolutely smashed him. He was plain beaten four lengths. But they walked. For a horse that wants 3,200. 3,200 meters plus. Like, a dash home is never going to suit him. I think he'll be a big improver in a genuine run staying contest. And he's got really good top 10 claims. He's in my top 10. Yeah, the 3,200 meter
Speaker 2brings him right into it. He's a big winning hope for me. He'll feature a little bit later in the betting plays. And just touch on his barrier quickly. 20. The fact that he is this dour stayer that wants the 4,000 meters. Bo Mertens just has to go forward.
Speaker 1I'd want him to lead. Yeah. Yeah, I'd want him. Royal supremacy. He's drawn one to his outsider. I'd want him to go forward and ensure that this is a genuine gullet. Make it tough. Try and take the sprint away of some of these horses that are a bit more brilliant than you.
Speaker 2Yep. Let's get to horse number 20 now. It's the race favorite. It is Point of Law. He's a $6.50 chance. Kieran Ma. Ethan Brown combined. He's the Geelong Cup winner. He'll be the first horse since Juniton in 2011 to complete the Geelong Melbourne Cup double. If he is able to get into the winner's circle. And you don't see them often much more lightly raced than this. With five career starts, three wins and a minor placing.
Speaker 1He's got that small fry form, which ties in Hopewell Rock, who I give good claims to. He's got a lower time form, but that doesn't matter because we've seen him on Australian soil. And he's really lightly raced. I think that's irrelevant. He got that two kilo penalty for the Geelong Cup, which got him in. If he was in the field without the penalty, you know, he'd have spat out a huge number last start. But he still spat out a number. That hits the winning standard of this race. And in those five starts, every time he's raced, basically he's improved his rating. So he does profile really nicely as a horse that it just continues to get better.
Speaker 2It's just his manners have been the question mark around him. He's a little bit of a lunatic from all reports. So barrier nine, Ethan Brown. What's he going to do to offset some of those mental issues that this horse can possess?
Speaker 1Well, just pray to God that there's a genuine. And you can just find him back and relax. Some of his runs have been quite good, though. When he was beaten at Ascot over 2,800 metres, he actually went back and then ran right through the line with the shape of the race against anyone that Bahrain trophy. And of course, we've seen the Geelong Cup. So I think his form's good enough. We've seen him on Australian soil. He's got a lightweight. He's in the right camp. He can win the race. He's going in my multiples. I'm not backing him just because of the price. So he's your $6.50 favourite. He's a bit of a hothead. He ran through a brick wall last start at Geelong. But what's he going to do in a much bigger field? He was in isolation there. He had the Euphrates going forward. There was no other horses around him. He got outside the leader. What's a bigger field going to do? I'm sort of nitpicking because I think his form's great. He's progressive. He's waited to win the race. I think he can win. I just don't want to take that price. It's about a horse that's still learning and doing a few things wrong. Yep. That's a fair call.
Speaker 2He's certainly in my top 10. And I echo a lot of the sentiments there that you've just put out, Salty. He's just, yeah, he's going to be, he's going to, he could just be the obvious if he just smokes them and you just go and he just bounces off that Geelong Cup win and you go, what was I thinking? But $6.50 in any Melbourne Cup just feels so tight as well, I feel. This, you won't get $6.50 about this girl. Horse number 21. It's strictly business. He's at $81. Tommy Carberry trains. Dean Yandel hops on. So there was a little bit of the old switcheroos overnight because Mick D was set to ride this mare. But with Harry Coffey, a potential collarbone injury after the fall on Pondolaoui yesterday, Mick D's put himself into the sort of the emergency waiting room. He's chucked the sub vest on as well. And he's waiting in the wings to perhaps get the ride on Chocolate. So a little bit still to unfold on whether that's confirmed that Mick D will ride. Chocolate's or not. But Dean Yandel hops on strictly business. 12 months ago, this girl, she romped home to win the VRC Oaks by three and a half lengths. And it hasn't really gone to plan this campaign. She's been beaten by a combined 30 lengths in her last three runs this prep.
Speaker 1No, and her campaign following the Oaks was only fair until she got to 25 in the SA Derby. So she's obviously a stayer, but just in the current form that she's in, she's been 14 lengths in a lead in with a few of these and all her other forms so far this preparation, she's been beaten. By horses that she has to race and soundly. So cannot win. Yeah, can't win.
Speaker 2Horse number 22 is Mr. Monaco, a $23 chance for Kieran Ma. Jabes Johnson gets his first ride in the Melbourne Cup. A last start third in that Moonee Valley Gold Cup is the Bart Cummings winner. So has had the golden ticket, has been able to work backwards from that Bart Cummings. He's a six-year-old that does relish rain affected tracks. Won't get that. On Tuesday, but he's going along quite well.
Speaker 1Yes, he was beaten seven lengths in a Sydney Cup where he was $5.50, but he had some veterinary excuses that day. I think he's building well, this preparation. He had the pattern on side in the Bart Cummings, but he put them away. And then he got flushed out very early on that slow tempo in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. And he was really keen on that slow tempo. I think a more genuine tempo today. Like even though it's 25 to 32, they're going to go faster in this. But that's as slow as they go. It was sheer madness. - Yeah. He made Stuart Cabot a little bit better at the weights from there. So I think he can turn the tables on the winner of that Moonee Valley Cup. And I got him as a top 10 hope, lightweight hope.
Speaker 2I do feel like he's probably somewhat the forgotten Kieran Ma horse, just with the right profile and weight in this race.
Speaker 1I mentioned his Mannion win in the autumn. It was ridiculous. I was on Stuart Cabot that day. He had the greatest run in transit in the history of the world. And this guy sat three and four wide without cover. And he still out-toughed him. It was a tough win.
Speaker 2Yep. Mr. Monaco, pretty good push there. Let's get to number 23, Zakuma, Graham Begg's only runner in the race. Willie Pike hops on board. It's a Willie Pike spring at the moment, I'm feeling, for this six-year-old here. 52 kilos, Zakuma will carry. Was the Andrew Ramson winner back in May and gets in with just that 52 kilos. He's drawn ideally in 10. Willie Pike's a really good booking for this guy. Just the lead in, though, was a bit of a head scratcher. So they elected to go to the Crystal Mile, which was obviously a 1600-meter race, where he's run 11th as the lead in. For a horse with a golden ticket into the race, I thought that was very strange placement from a very astute trainer.
Speaker 1No, I didn't mind it because the two options was he was going to trial him over 1400 meters instead of racing. That was the original. But then if there's a race over 16 where they can go faster, there's more pressure, it's a little bit further, you get him that extra bit fitter. I thought it made sense. He was terrible in it, but I didn't expect him to run well. But all it did was replace his trial with this race in mind. So it was basically literally a race day trial. So he's a $27 chance.
Speaker 2So given the fact that he's had the race day trial over 1600 meters, that's probably given you a bigger price now. I mean, that's a lot more than what you would have had originally. Like he's been much shorter than that in futures markets.
Speaker 1Yeah, I'm judging him on his Herbert Power Run. And there was a couple of things there, or at least one thing that made me question the tail end of 32 in a genuine run Melbourne Cup. And it was once he got under pressure, he just wanted to lay in under pressure and do a bit wrong. And that meant that sort of he was feeling the effects of that trip. I thought after he won the Ramson that he was a genuine Melbourne Cup. I just would have liked to see him do a little bit more in his lead-in runs. Like, he did find the line behind Zahran in the naturalism, but his Herbert Powell run, I didn't love it. And he's gone back to the races since, but over 16. So that's the race I have to judge him off. So I'm happy to risk him.
Speaker 2Yep. Let's get to 24 now. This is the final runner in the field, and it is Chocolates. she's an $11 chance for Kieran Ma. Harry Coffey's still listed to ride, but it's a little bit of a wait and see. Mick Dee is waiting in the wings to perhaps ride this mare at 51 kilos from barrier 17. We last saw her flashing home for second in the Tessio Stakes. It's been 17 years since her dad's shocking won the Melbourne Cup. There's a nice little tie in there, and she was able to secure her golden ticket by winning the Archer Stakes. So Kieran Marr's just had this opportunity with this girl to just work backwards and she absolutely loves staying races and she absolutely loves Flemington. There is a lot to like about Chocolates.
Speaker 1Yeah, she can certainly win the race with that light weight. The Archer Stakes was really fast run. It was a weak race. Don't get me wrong. She's beaten, I think, Giant. I think Beach Pad was third or fourth or something like that. Like to get into a Melbourne Cup, it was really thin, but it was a fast race. And she was just, the further they went in that race, the more she was going to win by. So she loves Flemingtons. She hasn't been to 32, but everything that she's doing says that, you know, there's a good chance she runs the trip. She found the line in the Herbert Power when the blinkers went off. And then in a slow race last week with the blinkers going back on in the Tessio, she did her best work later. I think she's had a good preparation. I'm not backing her. I think Middle Earth's the strongest of Kieran Maher's hopes and the strongest local hope, but she goes in the multiples because if you love Flemington and you like staying and you've got 51 kilos, you've got a bit in your corner.
Speaker 2Yeah, I agree. I think she's the best of the Kieran Maher chances in the race. I'll certainly be having something on her shortly in my $100 betting plays. She's going to be absolutely timed to the minute. And I know there's not a great record with these golden ticket races, But there's just something about Chocolates and her build-up and the way that that camp has prepared her ahead of this and just even her work through the line and the Tessio stakes. It just makes me want to back her. I wanted to not, but I can't find a reason to be against her in this. So a bit of a blow with Harry Coffey if he doesn't get up for it because it's a bloody big opportunity for him to add to the Caulfield Cup collection.
Speaker 1Yeah, and he's got a great record on her as well. It does go a long way having a relationship with a horse. You know, sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. But, you know, to get to 3,200 metres when you've ridden her a lot, you know, the little idiosyncrasies and stuff, it helps.
Speaker 2Well, Mickey D's got his eye in after the Regal Ambition win. Anyway, yesterday. Let's get to our top 10 salts. We'll flash these up on the screen as well. Let's have a look at the Salton's top 10 for the 2026 Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 1Hopewell Rock is the one to beat. I love the way he travels in his races. I think he'll stay the trip. Middle Earth has stayed the trip before. I reckon he's the best of the local hopes. He's been building to grand final day. Point of Law, excellent win in the Geelong Cup. Solar Spain should stay in the Sydney Cup. Chocolates, a good lightweight hope. Sons and Lovers, I don't know about him with the weight, but he does stay the trip. Trust Your Instinct, James McDonough on. Horse has a turn of foot. Just worried about him running the trip with his brilliance. Kislyar, I think he's going to be a lot better, ridden more aggressively in a faster staying race. so you are he's just got that gear that he just keeps fighting and mr monica i think he is the one out of the mooney valley cup that could run into the top
Speaker 210 okay there's the top 10 will you be making a few multiples around those top 10s as well so yeah i know we'll get to our box first four soon but will you sort of be having a few little tries and quins and things like that chucking a few of those in oh without doubt the melbourne cup did the sun come up it's like On this Sunday.
Speaker 1It's like playing the lottery, but you're able to do a little bit of research with it. No, it's spot on.
Speaker 2It's brilliant. It's a good call. Here is my top 10 for this year's cup. I've got So You Are as my top selection. I just love the resilience in the fight that this guy has continued to show. Bjorn Baker, Rachel King, what a story that would be. And I just think is the absolute map horse of the race. Kislyar, I like the pipe opener. I'm not looking at the Moonee Valley Gold Cup as a negative at all. I'm looking at that as a tick, and as a result, we've got a much bigger price. Chocolates, she's the one that's had the golden ticket. She is timed to the absolute second for this race. A little bit of a jockey debacle over the past 24 hours, but she is absolutely flying. Middle Earth, he's another that's timed to the minute in the same camp as well. No surprises there. Coming through those wait for age premier form lines. Soul of Spain will appreciate 3,200 meters. Hopewell Rock, you've made a really good case for him, Salts, and he is my number one of the internationals. Point of Law looks really progressive after winning that Geelong Cup, and if he's on his best behavior, I think the favorite can certainly be winning. Sons and Lovers has to carry the top weight, gets my boy Dylan Brown McMoneagle on board, but won't spend a cent from the low draw. Trust your instinct, I give a chance to as well. And Vauban, I'm throwing in dirty old Vauban into a lot of those multiples, Saltsy, because he just has the ability to creep up and ruin your day. He might sneak into a fourth and blow everything up for you. You will be disgusted. You heard it here first. I will be disgusted. Yeah, well, there's the top tens. Let's get to our $100 betting strategies. I'm giving you $100 now, so I'll tell you how you're spending it.
Speaker 1I'll be having $60 to win on Hopewell Rock. I'm very bullish on his chances. I think he's beating the handicapper. I think he's the best international horse, 54.5 kilos. At Middle Earth, he's got more weight than last year, but he's ticked that box, he stays all day, he's coming through the fastest races that have been run in the lead-in against the best horses at Wait for Age. He's had that Queensland prep, he's got the low gate, he's in it up to his eyeballs.
Speaker 2Yep, here's my $100 betting plays, Saltan. And so you are leading the way, $50 there on number 16 to win. I'll have $30 on Kislyar. I just think he's a stupid price and he is the biggest smoky in this race. and then $20 to win on Chocolates. Not for a huge return, but we'll certainly be finishing in front if Chocolates wins. That's how I'm looking at my $100 betting plays. And then we'll chuck up our box first fours here. I've got 4, 12, 14, 16, 19, and 24. So effectively, I've just got my top six of my top 10 all boxed up. And Salts has done the same. He's got 1, 4, 12, 14, 20, and 24. Pretty similar looking, with just the exception of a couple of changes there amongst our top six, Saltsy.
Speaker 1Yep. You've always gotta have one sort of left of center in that just in case they squeeze in for me, that's solar Spain, you know, sons and lovers, solar Spain, not hard in the market, solar Spain, sort of a little bit forgotten of the local horses, I think he can stay the trip.
Speaker 2It was like a couple of years when. Shiraz just barreled home for third and blew a few up like there's just all you up, like there's just all Just because he just stays. There's just one that stays, and you might even like. Chris Waller. Yeah. We've been big on the each-way betting this spring. Beaten by 10 lengths and still get a return for thirds. Yeah, that's true. I reckon we gave the great race justice. Well, it's a great addition. It is. It is every year. I think there's a lot of angles. Yeah. And if I give strictly business wins, it's like a packer-up job. It was a couple of years ago. We didn't give old knights much.
Speaker 1But at least with Knight's Choice, you could go back and be like, oh, you know what? Okay, then. Whatever. But with strictly business, no.
Speaker 2Okay. Yeah. Why am I putting these things into the atmosphere? Why am I putting them out there? Shut up, Nick. That's been a lot of fun, Salts. That's two units, one cup for 2026. All the very best. I like that we've got nine of our top ten the same. That gives me. Yeah, that's actually pretty crazy. That's quite crazy.
Speaker 1And the only one different is an absolute. Plug or lock it.
Speaker 2So what are we different? Vauban and Mr. Monaco. Vauban and Mr. Monaco, yeah. Some of them in and out. Different orders. But that's quite rare to see those come up quite similar. Enjoy being on course today at Mornington. In the studio today. Not on course in the studio, but sorry, on.
Speaker 1Peninsula Cup day.
Speaker 2Me and Mickey Felgate. There's not enough in the. Two out in the studio. There's not enough in the budget to send Salts Skoda down to the Peninsula. That's what's going on. I've got to claim too much depreciation. Enjoy the remaining three days of Cup Week. We're at quarter time. We're ahead. Enjoy the big dance there on Tuesday. And we'll be back for our normal show ahead of Champions Day right here on the Two Humans Podcast.
Speaker 3If and I'm forgotten, you'll remember me for the day. I won't ever be a cornerstone. I won't ever be a cornerstone.
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