2026 Kansas City Chiefs Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Died featuring your esteemed hosts and being monitored and rude in sick, powered by bats and birds. Welcome to the Deep Died. Kansas City chiefs are your AFC West favorites Andy. Sometimes when you have a team that underachieves to the degree that the chiefs did last year and they have, you know, a relatively, you know, their rating is tied to a man perceived as the best quarterback and football who tears as ACL. The next season is a little bit of a by-law opportunity on that squad because people are like, you know, what have you done for me lately? You went like five and eleven last year, five and twelve, whatever their record was. And that's not really the case. The respect for the chiefs who went six and eleven last year, excuse me, has not really diminished at all. I think in the exact same breath where we were talking about how people, I think, are perceiving the Broncos record last year correctly, which was it was a little lucky. It was a little schedule driven. It was a little bit weighing the close calls. People are correctly assessing the 2025 season with my home center center as very unlucky. It has been broadly pointed out that they were unable to win one score games last year, which had been a staple of the Andy Reid Pat Moam's experience to that point in life. So it was a surprise. And so here we sit now with the chiefs favored in a very competitive division with clear obvious holes on their roster. Like, we just covered the Broncos, we just covered the Chargers Andy. Is there an obvious hole on either of those rosters, like a hole? On the Chargers? Either of the rosters that we've covered and of the community of the West. The offensive line right now for the Chargers. Okay. And I think and if you wanted to point out negatives on the Broncos, it's like, Nick's probably isn't that good. He's still just a mediocre quarterback who looked really good, a good system. And that the defense defenses are hard to, it's hard to keep up top five defense year after year. The aggression comes for everyone. So, you know, but those aren't like huge gapies, you know, unless, you know, unless Slater's fucked and then the Chargers might go a little bit of trouble. Yeah. I think the kind of point I'm trying to make though is that like, broadly, those rosters are pretty complete. Yeah. No, very good rosters. The Chief's rosters very much not. And nobody's really kind of taking that seriously. They're just kind of assuming that Andy Read and Pat Mahomes, Pat Mahomes may be more even so than Andy Read will elevate all of these pieces to minimum slight favorites in this division, which I find pretty fascinating. Yeah. They've been trying to fix the same holes for a few years. It's been the, what's the tape on the, the water tank, the flex, that you know, offensive line and corner, as they just continue to try to solve those issues for, and then, you know, you had the disaster we can't win those games. The bros who, you know, well, wide receivers, well, yeah, but the bros who just made a bunch of money, always betting on Mahomes late when they were down for a couple of years, gave some of that money back, like, oh, why didn't they win that game? They also win that game. It's like, it's not a gravy train the last forever, bud. Yeah. I'm definitely, I definitely see a process failure with this front office. They put a lot of assets into trying to address the offensive line and wide receiver room, and to me, it doesn't look like it's clearly born fruit. They have some, they have some, you know, line, they have some warm piece. Now, they have, they have, they hit, they have some hits. Like, just don't get me wrong. Groot hub from free. I would say is your best center and football. Your mileage may vary on your opinion of Josh Simmons, but he surely, clearly possesses talent, if he chooses to play. The wide receiver room doesn't look like there have been many answers found. The tight end room continues to age out of relevancy. One of your wide receivers was rehabbing injury in prison. Is that good? It's not great. I mean, I'm glad he was working on it. In order to turn around the most stagnant rushing attack in football, you had to pay a bunch of super boy MVP a lot of money. And because of making that decision in terms of allocating resources, you lost your entire secondary. So the same team, two of them. Then yeah, but you lost three, what three two corners of safety that started. Yeah. And the only guy that's consistently been able to generate pressure for your defense is Chris Jones. He is now entering his age 32 season. Getting up there. No edge help for him. You've had to make some tough decisions on how you're going to allocate your resources. And the reason you've had to make those tough decisions is because winning so much every year and drafting at the end of the draft is put you in a precarious situation where you've had to take some risks. You've had to take some swings. You haven't hit on a lot of those players. And as a result, this is now a team where you have an elite quarterback in the homes. Coach with the track record that people will go to war with as a top three coach in the NFL without really sweating. And, uh, and a what of problems on the roster, am I paying? Yeah. There's a big question mark in like every section. Yeah. I think you can say that. Yeah. Even the one we feel the strongest is going to be your strength. Maybe your two strengths. Coaching slash play calling and quarterback. There's a huge question marks for me there. Offensive line has four question marks. Skill skill group definitely has some question marks and overpay. Um, defensive line. You know, uh, who's doing it beyond Jones and Karl Optis? Uh, yes, secondary is a bunch of bunch of replacements. I don't want to say replacement level players, but replacements to last year's starters. So a lot of this feels like a team that has a wide range of possibilities for this. Yeah. And one of them is they get the shit kicked out of them by the Broncos week one. And that's just who they are. Like, oh, the homes, homes looks good. All right. So the if you haven't been playing paying a ton of attention in camp, that was obviously something that everybody wanted to see. He looks fine. Like he didn't play in the preseason game, but anything I've seen stuff from camp or reports from camp seems like he's confident and able to plant and move around in that leg that knee. So I hopefully that's not an issue, but who knows how how that goes? You know, they say injuries like that. A lot of it's mental, you know, getting into a game going up against a live defense and having confidence to take a hit to, you know, plant on that leg. They say it's it's, you know, after months and months of feeling that leg not being able to hold you up or do what you want it to do, trusting it. So it's always interesting to see someone come back because it goes one of two ways it feels like it's like, oh, they're they're clearly not the same person or Adrian Peterson isn't smart enough to know that his leg is hurt and he's going to run for two thousand yards. What's the most kind of compelling comp from homes coming back off of this ACL in your opinion? You're hoping it's the Brady season right? Remember he came back? Are you? That's fun. It's more fun if he's good. The league is more fun if Patrick Mom's is Patrick Mom's. I agree. I agree. I was hoping you were going to say that Brady season for those who don't remember Tom Brady in the first game of 2008 when the Patriots were healthy favorites to win the Super Bowl. Towards ACL. What's the guy's name that got him? Do you remember? I forget the guy who got him. It was a shape. 2007, man. 2008, yeah. Anyway, Brady goes down. Patriots end up going 11 and five. Don't make the playoffs with Matt Castle. Brady comes back in 2009. Patriots win 10 and six lost in the wildcard round. They won their division at 10. Oh great call. Yeah, there's your comment back it up. There you go. Yeah, so 2009 coming back off of the ACL. The Patriots won their division, lost in the wildcard round. All in all, it was It was a I think as good as you can help as you're kind of relying out for coming back off of an ACL. I just do want to kind of point out in that season, the Patriots struggled pretty a couple of times early on, you know, just up and down play before they unloaded a win against the Titans 59 to zero in the snow week six. And then it was like, all right, Brady's back, right? So like the clear and obvious point I'm trying to make here is like, it doesn't matter how elite of a quarterback you are, like sometimes coming off of a, you know, an injury like this is you cannot expect week one to look like week one on, you know, this, the, in a normal year. The difference between that team and this team, in my opinion, is that that team was loaded, loaded, loaded. You had Julian, Randy Moss and Wes Walker. That was your wide receiver room. You had, you know, Ben Watson was a solid tight end. You had any lead offensive line with Matt, Matt Light, Logan Mankin, Stan Coppin, Stephen Neal, Nick Kaser. And you had an amazing defense with guys like Vince Wilfork and Gerard Mayo, and a dayliest Thomas Aio, just, just tons of, tons of stars across that team. That's not what this cheese roster looks like. Well, Vince Wilfork is not. Yeah, at least have Chris Jones, I guess. But yeah, Vince Wilfork is not in this team. So I think what I'm getting at is that like, expecting that that's where you're gonna land in a tougher division with a weaker team, I think is asking a lot out of moms this year. And I would also say that this is just like setting the goalposts, right? We're setting the goalposts for what to expect, right? Have you watched, have you watched the clips of him so far? Yeah, again, it's, you have, how do you see a good amount of his clips throwing? Not really. I've seen a few, like, I want to see him plant more than throw. I want to see him come trouble in his legs, but I've seen, I've seen some and it's one of those things where I'm fine. He looks okay. He looks good. He looks like he's coming back. But like you mentioned, what can we expect from the rest of the team around him? Because that is a huge part. It's the most important position in sports, but you've seen good quarterbacks not get it done because the rest of the team and the roster is whole. So they're not going to be, it'll be interesting. I feel like two out of every 10 clips I've seen of him throwing. There's mechanics problems going on with his lower body. I don't know. I guess I'll have to watch for it. I don't know. He seems like he's planting out of fine. There's always kind of what he's always kind of a wonky thrower. Anyway, he throws what he wants to. He doesn't need to be in the stance of why I tittle on a football card. Well, I didn't want to go like Megan negative here on my homes, but I worry a lot about his arc and his progression carrying into the future as an elite passer in the NFL if his mechanics are suspect. And I do think your point about he always had a little wonky mechanics is true. And I think that's a negative. I think it became like the arc of my homes and I'm not trying to get to qualitative here, but early on where he had just an absolutely elite arm paired with an elite weapon in Tyree Kill and just brilliant play design and play calling by Reed was just, you know, it was it was match made in heaven, some of the best offense we've ever seen. Hill leaves my homes has to adjust his game. He's able to overcome the loss of the elite weapon. And in my opinion, it wasn't because he was attacking different parts of the field, which I mean, I guess he was. He was attacking a little bit shallower because the, you know, he was adjusting to the defensive trends. And he was, but he was still just be truly spectacular, hitting that 11 to 20 yard passes on the sidelines consistently. And, you know, exercising the advantage he had with Kelsey against linebackers and safeties, which, you know, was, you know, another cheap code. What made him even more special in my opinion was his ability to extend plays, his ability to scramble when it mattered. And, you know, just in just was unsackable. And it all kind of added up to like a, you know, an aura, a vibe that every defense in the NFL feared and respected. And independent of his injury, Andy, I feel like that's faded a little. Do you agree? Maybe not. You see an aura, are we too old to say or a vibe? No. I don't know. We're not. It feels to me like, it feels, it feels, quantify that though. Yeah. Well, I think you can. Look at his completion percentage over expected last year. Look at some of the, you know, some of his accuracy on deep balls is falling off. I think the, there were a couple of statistics last year that were not in the luck category from the homes before his injury that had people scratching their heads. Did you engage in it? Yeah, I mean, it was a little bit because, I mean, look at the, what, what week was the injured Drew? Week 12. Later. 13. I think it was later. I think it was later than that. Yeah, it was the cold game. And what was the record? Yeah, what was the record? They were six and five with a overtime win over the Colts in that game. Yeah, I mean, it's not like they were running away with the division. And then everything fell apart that one week. Like they were, they were a middling team at that point by record and by results. Like it didn't, it didn't feel the same. I mean, again, it vibes from whatever else. And you can go look at some of the advanced stats. And he wasn't doing some of the stuff that got him to win those close games. So you wonder if he was carrying something before the big injury too. I don't know. It's hard to, it's hard to put a finger on exactly what, what was going around other than they didn't win close games. I think it was a lot of the efficient, I mean, okay, my complete and total transparency, what went wrong for the Chiefs last year and why they didn't win close games was because the rushing attack was atrocious. And it put the passing attack in disadvantageous situations where it was a must pass situation. And he had wide receivers that couldn't separate. And he was less efficient and less accurate, frankly. And, you know, there basically we, the limit does exist for how much my homes can, you know, how much my home's witchcraft can overcome in terms of adversity. And I think you found it last year before you got hurt. And I think that the general setup of the way that this team is rostered does not set up for a quick bounce, like step forward before we really compete for a championship again next year to me. I think it's going to be a longer arc. And I want to be ahead of the market, expecting everything is just going to be fine for my homes. I want to be in the situation where this first stretch of the season could look much worse than people are used to seeing from him, because of this combination of being a little bit behind physically and working with pieces that are not very good. And yeah, it's funny to me because what you're saying makes sense. There's a perfect world where everybody is here. We come into the season, everybody sees it, downgrades it, reacts, and then six, eight weeks into the season. It's like they've been oversold. They're underrated. My homes put together a couple of special performances. He starts to build his way back. And then, you know, it becomes an exercise in, you know, how do you price them for 2027? My mindset really is like trying to just be ahead of the wave here. And the wave is going to come and people are going to kind of get there of, oh, the magic is gone. There's no reason to fear this guy. Right. I disagree that it's going to happen outside because of Patrick beat me to it. And only because he's allowed to just type things. And I had to wait my turn. But yeah, that it feels like there's some spots in that schedule early where it's like, oh, this seems fine. You know, yeah, they had a tough week, but it was week one. And my home's hadn't played in so long. And that's a tough defense. And we're not going to worry about that game. And then they're going to play some of these easier games. And people are going to be bought in. And then I do worry. And kind of the overarching theme of me rating, especially the offensive side of this ball was, I kind of got to give them the benefit of the doubt because of the, you know, the the body of work for, I mean, even read Spagnolo be enemy my homes. If you want to put the body of work on those four men, That said, it's one of those teams where, you know, you talk about this lot where, hey, I'm not going to adjust this team really hard because of, well, who they're playing first off or the situation. I know it's a tough game against Denver and it'll be hard to not overreact if they go up there and just, you know, the offense looks so poor and against what could be a top three defense. But I think overall, I'm going to be quicker to adjust this team down. If it just looks like it's not so much the defense, it's, he's not back. The mechanics look a little jankier and the offense just isn't as crisp anyway, especially in wins against some of the softer teams throughout that first quarter of the season. It might be, hey, we're not upgrading the team because like you won, but I'm not feeling this. Let me tell you this is the best team in the, let me, let me, let me crystal ball this for you then. Okay. First, eight weeks of the season against the bad teams, ugly wins fueled by Kenneth Walker getting 35 touches again. Yeah. Against the good teams, non-competes, that's what I'm saying. Like, I can't upgrade them against some of these bad teams if it just hates. No, I'm saying, like, if that's the reality, like, what's the, what's the temperature in the market for the chiefs? Like, are people literally just like, I'll sell it a lot. Like, they can't, they can't even beat bad teams. Like, this is, this is concerning. I don't know. People, people still, I think there'll be a group in the, in the market that's still willing to buy in on it because again, if the history of the body of work, if they have a good enough record, even if it's, you can clearly see, hey, that was a bad team and it was mostly the running games and spags was in his bag against a young or bad quarterback. And they put a good defensive scheme, they won 14 to three, like, clearly not the, you know, not the team that we saw at the peak of the KC powerhouse. So it's going to be a team, it's going to be easy because it's super. It's not like the Jets where we have to catch him on the, the one o'clock, you know, you're going to go find him on Sunday, take it, like, you're going to, they're going to be in some pocket. They're going to be in your face. They're playing on Thanksgiving. They're playing on, they're playing on prime time one, two, three, four, five, six, six dandelions this year for them. Yeah. And a lot of high profile games too, self-schedule, which is another part of the equation here. So I guess where I'm kind of at is, I think we're in agreement that we're, we're willing to downgrade this team quickly if it doesn't feel right. Oh, for sure. And I think I also, even more than that, like, I just, I want to be a slightly ahead of the negative downturn in opinion on them to then kind of catch the crust of the way of at the right time. And it might not be this year. Yeah. There might not be a buyback spot where, hey, we're getting back in, it might just be like, no, we're fine. This is, yeah, this is, yeah, yeah, that's, this, this is a team that could go six and eleven against the spread this year. And you know how many of those eleven losses are going to be in my account, zero. Like, I'm not going out of my way to bet on the chiefs with the against any of the bad teams. Or, you know, in any other coin flipy spots, they were really good. They were not like this team that covered a lot. No, it was always like, they won, but, of course, well, yeah, because they just, they just smothered their opponents in the second house. Yeah. Yeah, they were never any fun to bet on because it's like, hey, this was a game they were never, ever, ever in danger of losing, but they were never going to cover eight and a half. Yeah. Like, it just was not in the cards. Yeah. Yeah. Um, so what did you think of their off season overall? Oh, good. They added a quarterback. Okay. Patrick Mahomes. He's a good quarterback too, you know, roster at the end of the year. That is important. Um, yeah. They added two quarterbacks, Andy. Yeah, to be fair, they did. All right. So just the fields. Yeah. Then the negatives, we went over all the negatives, but Creed Humphrey and Chris Jones are still very good Bolton at a good season. Karl Loft is a little underrated. You kind of shit on the past rush. I'm a Karl Loft. Just guy. And you know what? Kelsey, 1.47 yards per route run in a season where we've done for a few years. We're like, is he done, done, done, done? He's still founded at times. So we'll see if we get one more of those. I don't know. It's harder to believe every year. The secondary wasn't great. And then it got torn apart as it was in the off season anyway. You kept Shemari Conner, who was a terrible coverage grade if you want to go there. So the tackles didn't play well. The Xavier worthy existed and played to be fair. Do you remember what was it? Was it like friendly fire? Was that the injury for his shoulder? Were you ranted like Kelsey or something? No. He got, it was like a third play of the Chargers game. I think it was defense, but it might have been friendly fire. I thought either way, the friendly fire one was Rishi Rice. Rishi Rice is natural. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, worthy had a labor need to be repaired anyway. So the off season was go overpaid for Kenneth Walker, whatever you haven't been able to draft the right running back, it's an upgrade. Justin Fields is a pretty good backup. Honestly, if you want to give him a little bit of daps for that, it doesn't hurt to have a backup and can play football. He started plenty of games. He went and got a low high Gilman, a safety from Baltimore and Kadeir Kuhu, Miami, because that's who you want to go pick your defensive secondary pieces from the Miami Dolphins. If you squint this secondary, does it not give you 2025 Dolphins flashbacks? A little bit. I kind of a lot, right? It's not. It's not. It's not. There's no stormed duck. It's not. I was just going to say, we need to get started on the building. Yeah, but there's a lot of guys here with a lot to prove that they can handle these roles. Tonga? What's your thoughts on Tonga? He's a good player. Yeah. Brenda Fender. You got a good Brenda Fender? No. On paper that makes sense putting him next to Christians, we'll see. Yeah. Emmanuel Ogba from, we're seeing with Jacksonville last year. He's been with a few teams. I believe this is actually his second stint in Kansas City, another defensive end. And then as you mentioned, the exodus in the secondary, Trent McDuffy was traded to Los Angeles. Jalen Watson, followed in free agency, Brian Cook, your safety, safety, Brian Cook, that's on there. Yes. Safety. 890 snaps. Went to Cincinnati. It is a lot of snaps. That's a ton of snaps that have left the secondary. Isaiah Pajaco was replaced and upgraded at what cost though. And then you drafted Montsour de Lane. This is a, what pick did they have, Drew? They had pick number nine that they traded up six to get to. It's crazy. It's just jarring to see, pick six for the chiefs when it was so much of, oh, pick 31, 32. Oh, they took, they took Clyde Edwards to layer. Good. They actually drafted somebody who can play and they needed to again, they, you need a McDuffy replacement. So you made the trade with Cleveland. You took Montsour de Lane, the LSU corner back. You took Peter Woods from Clemson later in the first round. That's an interior rotation piece. It's going to probably, you know, right side, Chris Jones there, especially when you're looking on a pass rushing down to believe edge from Oklahoma, Mason Thomas. He's apparently pure pass rush that's going to be the guy who's going to rotate through on the edges. You got another corner safety, nickel competition, Kennedy, Jaden Kennedy from Oregon running back for Nebraska, maybe a change based third down guy if he catches on a slot receiver from Cincinnati named Cyrus Allen and then a quarterback. Clear it, no smire, a dev valent mental piece behind Justin Fields and Pat Holmes, Pat Holmes from LSU. They have not retired his number at LSU either so far in my notes. Andy Reeves on your 14 spagnola is retained again. The enemy is back, although, and I hate to delve into shit like this. It's not football related, but the enemy having a weird camp slash offseason as far as some of the distractions there. I can't imagine. Yeah, no shit. I can't imagine. I just think about, you know, you try to put yourself in those shoes and obviously we have much lower stress jobs than NFL coordinators and coaches who are working 100 hours a week. I think about, like, times in my life when, like, my dad had some illness or, like, something bad happened and trying to concentrate on my job. And it's like, oh, I'm just not going to be productive this week. Like it would be very hard for me in a personal day or two. It would be very hard to be really focused in on getting this offense ready for the season with some of the distractions. It's hard to do that when there's a really good Monday night football gear, man. Like, oh, I get distracted by like, oh, I get a vacation plans in three weeks. I should start packing. Anyway, he is back. And then it sounded like when he was out Joe Blaymeyer ran the offense, passing in coordinator, when B enemy was out dealing with that stuff. The entirety of the offense to me felt like we can't solve all the problems at one off season. So we're going to have to pick and choose where to allocate our problem solving. Did you deal with the rest of the problems? Many offense linemen that they know any offensive linemen fixes in that in that long stretch, sir. No, I mean, apparently Cyrus Allen is the answer at wide receiver. According to everyone who's at chief's practices, is that good or bad that your fifth round wide receiver choice is is showing up all the wide receivers in your depth chart. Is that good or bad? I honestly, I read that is bad. I hope Cyrus Allen has a great season. This is a long contributor here. But I don't know. It's probably, for the most part, if you have a guy who's drafted that deep and you have some established names and you're excited, more excited about that guy, it's usually bad. But I try to take it with a grain of salt. What's the opposite of a grain of salt? I try to look at the silver lining as people find diamonds in the rough sometimes. And maybe they don't even realize what they call it. Jacobi Lane as a diamond in the rough for the Ravens is a good sign. It could be, hey, we got a pookah. Sometimes you grab a guy and later he works out. You never know. That's fair. You could be generally bad. That's fair. Generally bad. The-- Hopefully you didn't bite anybody. Yeah, it's fair point. Yeah, the Rams might. I have a pookah to start the season, we'll see. All right, I think the off season to me felt like we can't solve everything in one off season. So we're going to address these now because it makes sense to do so with the resources that are disposal. And we'll address the rest of the later date. And hope my home comes back and can ultimately get back to his level of play by the end of the season. We shall see if that is a fair bet. But again, this isn't any complete roster. This team is not contending for a title. If my home is pulled off, a title contention run with this squad of players, I will retract, recant, and retract all of my aura and vibe commentary with extreme prejudice. So-- Ooh, interesting. This is funny, interesting, common chat. These quick, small, wide receivers over a foreman camp every year, most don't pan out. You wonder if that's like, hey, we're just not hitting in camp yet. So 150 pound slot receiver who's twitchy. He's doing good because he hasn't gotten laid out. Yeah, but when he embarrasses your first over, your first pick, Minnesota delay, and is that a good sign that he can embarrass a good cornerback or is that a problem with your cornerback? These are questions we need answers to. Andy, let's go to ratings. But before we do, be sure to give serious consideration to signing up for the professional football contest at Circus Sports this NFL season. I first, this is millions eight, right? I think this is millions eight. I've done seven of them, and I will do as many of them as they continue to offer them as I am living on the Earth. It is an extremely fun contest to throw your hat and try to prognosticate at a 65% or better level in the NFL, picking must pick five sides a week. And if and when you hit that high water mark and win real money based on it, that's something they can never take away from you. And if you actually do win and you get the blue blizzard, it puts you in rare of elite company. And we hope to be there one day. So it impassioned not plea, but an impassioned thumbs up of the experience of playing in the pro football contest at Circus Sports. Millions in survivor are going to hit high water marks for contest pools this year. Survivor is tracking for 25 plus million. And yeah, you're going to want to want some skin in these games if you have a competitive bone in your body, which I know you do. Sign up in Nevada, play from anywhere. I know I should have I should have requested the novel, you Jack Patrick, they would have they should have made one for me. I missed I missed the check ceremony. I couldn't make it that Friday, but no, and yeah, it's a thousand bucks, but you tell me you're sitting there listening an hour long preview podcast and you're not you're not wagering what's that come out to like 75 bucks a week. I bet you're gambling more than that a week, but he I bet you're gambling more than that of silly SGPs in a in addition to other things that you're betting. So you know, even yeah, even if you tack out a proxy fee, it's like 70, 80 bucks a week for a pretty, pretty fun contest. Get you know, if you just get one entry in there, which is all I can handle, like I can't handle the thought process of having two entries and trying them against each other. So yeah, get out there, hit us up if you have any questions and let's get into the ratings. Okay, all right, I'm not going to be a value add to this portion of the podcast Andy, because you're a negative Nelly. Not just that I'm a negative Nelly, but I'm going to pin my number to just below market on the chiefs all year and probably not take any action on them and only bet against them when I'm excited to, you know, get a get a good match up and be on the opposite side of the home stacks. And so I didn't really put a lot of thought into my numbers. I just kind of tried to track market opinion on these things. And so I will reflect the market and tell you that the offensive, the quarterback and offense number should be somewhere in the ballpark of better than Drake May and worse than Josh Allen. And that is a 7.7. So good number Pat Mahomes might be playing at a five or four level for the first weeks of the season. And I won't be surprised based on the clips I've seen so far. But I'm going to anchor my numbers with a big one. Yeah, 7.5 pretty close to me. It's another one where if I use too much of last year, it's like, oh, no, this number is not right. This is a little too low. I mean, I mean, I mean, I kind of nudged this up. And yeah, it was if I used my strict formulas and how I do it from, you know, a tempted weighted stuff from 23 to 25, it had them as like the 12th best quarter back. I'm like, well, that's not right. That's what exists. Yeah. So it was, yeah, it was like a 6.5. So I bumped it up to a 7.5 based on, I've seen it happen. If I use that number, which is fun, it's funny. I was kind of right in that range. And if I use 6.5, then I'm two points off market on shoes, which I'm not, I'm not willing to go that far still is coming back from a December knee reconstruction. But he's clear to play things are looking good. We'll keep an eye on him through camp. Speaking of keeping an eye, keep an eye on him. I think the enemy thing. Yes, the enemy back in the fold is a positive as well. You know, we, we mentioned these probably, you know, I had some distractions here with the real life stuff, but having him back in the, in the room, I think it's positive for, for read. Oh, we have on that comment until we get some information. And as far as watching the homes, don't just watch the mechanics. Don't just watch the downfield accuracy. Do a count, count sacks, count scrambles, count running efficiency on scrambles. One of those clickers. Yeah, of course, you're counting the people that are coming to church. Yeah, exactly. Count, count, count, count, keep an eye on that sort of things because that's of in recent year seasons, that's been the X factor for him. Skill position group for me, I won't have a 6.1 and it's largely Kelsey and and Walker. I hate this wide receiver room, but I can't go lower than that. What do you have? I have 5.3. A lot of us. That's probably closer to right again, like I'm lower than them as it is, which man, I had to feel like I had to pump these numbers up to kind of capture the market sentiment, which I don't. Maybe I'm being pussy. Am I being pussy? Do I just need to bet again? You really can go and win 10 units or whatever? Yeah, go 10, 10, 6, 1. Is that enough? yeah that's 17. The rice and worthy worry me. Kelsey's 36. Kenneth Walker's great. But are we really crafting an offense? It's built around running the ball. It sounds like it. That's that's crazy to me. I'll bump it up if we are because I think that could work. Maybe we'll see with this offensive line which brings us to offensive line where I'm probably high. I actually the more I spent with us today I hate my number. I want to go below five. I'm at a five point two and it's honestly because they have standout play from their center of Creed Humphrey and I still believe in Trace Smith. I think Trace Smith is a good player. Simmons Simmons is a fucking wild card. Very very very strange that no one in the Kansas City media really felt that it was reasonable to inform the public as to whatever was actually going on with him last year. I mean it was personal stuff. From a guy who's who's draft who slid in the draft process because people questioned his commitment to playing football. Elected not to play football for half the season and everybody just yawns and what walks past it. What the fuck? I really don't get that anyway. It was weird. I'm at a five point four. A lot of it is just having the best center in football in Creed Humphrey. Simmons played eight games, Trace played 12. Trace was above average Jalen Moore's projected right tackle. I don't hate that right side I guess. I don't like Trace Smith more than I like Jalen Moore. Are you a negative on Kingsley? Yes. Sue Amataya? Yes. Kingsley is a minus. Jalen Moore is a minus. Simmons is a neutral. Creed is a plus plus. Trace is a plus. I get to five point two. Five point four for me and I might bring this down depending. Of all of my numbers across the chiefs that's probably the one I'm not going to touch. I think that's probably I think they're right at five. Maybe a little bit. I could very, very clearly see myself dicking with the other ones that I have but that one's going to be five. They are the fifth best offense by my ratings. It's 67th percentile. I say my ratings basically to get the fucking market number get close to regressing close to the market number is how I got there. I don't know. I guess I'm going to be surprised if they're top five. Will you? Yes. What are you for overall? I'd have to you got to be pretty close to top five. You got to be like top eight. I mean just having that high of a quarterback OC number kind of elevates you there. No like ninth eighth. I have a overall yes like a 63rd percentile offense. Okay. Their defense again was very tough to come up. I think I probably undershot the runstop based on the addition of Tonga and I probably overshot the coverage so it'll come out in the wash but I'm at a 4.9 for runstop 4.8 for pass rush 5.0 for coverage. If Chris Jones gets her pass rush for me would drop into the high two slow threes. Coverage for me at five. I want to just give you a quick defense of this and see if any of this checks out to you. Okay. No Williams. N-O-H-L Williams. When I saw his name on the depth chart I was like oh that's our C-1. He's good. He's good. I was kind of surprised. He only played 430 snaps last year but his coverage grade was good. I'm not not lying. Whoa. This is changing the position but like he's he's not hurting you. He's not hurting you. This the guy he's next to, uh, Chamari Conor. He's bad. He should be. He's sorry. We got a NFL team. He should not be starting. He needs he needs to gain 20 pounds and play more in the box. Honestly the guy that's behind him on the depth chart Jaden Hakes is I think is better which is hilarious. We'll see a spagnot presumably while I identify that and make that change if that's the way that goes. Um, Aloy Gilman. I don't love but he's not. And again you have no continuity. It's it's so many. Yeah. Gilman from Baltimore. Oh, from Miami. Delayne from a college team. Yeah. It's just it's a bunch of guys playing back there. Yeah. In a defense that asks a lot from yes. Yes. Uh, yeah. It's always been good. We've always been impressed with what spags has done but yeah. So Delayne is Delayne is a wild card pressure. Yeah. Delayne is a wild card and then there's other guy the starting nickel Chris Roland Wallace. He does not look very good. He's then that's a tiny sample size. Delayne sample size is zero. So we're kind of shooting and we're kind of guessing here. But like if we get through a if they go up against a couple of good quarterbacks, which when we look at the schedule you'll see is going to not going to get this feedback for a while. But when they go up against some good quarterbacks, if they get caught, um, I don't think we should be surprised. There's some problem. There's put there's three potential prop three week links I think in the second area. Um, I'm more than you. I'm at you know, you know, why I ultimately bumped a back up to a five. I was I was coming in low. I bumped back up to the five because both Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton are good coverage linebackers. They're both good. So like you're going to be able to cover the screen game well. You're going to be able to cover Ted ends reasonably. I think you're just going to get your you're just going to get reamed by anyone with a good quarterback and good weapons in the passing attack, right? Like the Patriots man, it's a shame they're not on this schedule. What what fun it would be to bet the Patriots against the Chiefs this year with like the Drake May combined with the the weapons in that passing game to have be fun. Um, there's not many teams on their schedule where you're really excited about the wide receivers though, especially weeks three and four. What is that so lucky? Who knows maybe he mixes it up, but we're going to go a bunch of what they called the amoeba front. The amorphous, hey, there's seven guys and four of them. We're rushing four on every down, but it's going to be a different four and we're expecting a lot of man coverage. We're rotating out of the, you know, you go to high safeties and you rotate to you're going to rotate to a man man coverage back there and you're expecting a rookie, uh, a nickel back. We don't know much about and a strong safety to just play a bunch of man while you move people around up front and maybe blitz one of those guys. He blitzes corners and safeties at a pretty high rate too. So it's going to be very interesting to see what the Spags does with the secondary secondary is kind of the crux of what happens to the defense because pass rush is going to be fine too slightly above average based on what Carl off just does. I think Chris Jones is going to be great. Carl off just is good. And then you have a kind of miss term like Dana in the spot. I'd take him, I guess. Um, a man who was on this team at one point, but yeah, Ogba, he's 32. You have a 32-year-old pass rusher. You need more of those. So I'm probably a little high with my 5.8 then run stop. I'm higher than you as well because of the the target thing. And you know, Chris Jones isn't great against the run, but doesn't have to be. Okay, we did overall. We have. We have a average overall. It's a league average defense for me. It looks like you're going to be above league average by a hair. I'm right at it. Your coaching number is lower than mine. I thought there were some. I think I hold, I still hold Andy read up as kind of one of the better second half coaches to bet on as far as adjustments go. And it can be adjustments to put away a win. It can be adjustments to getting back into a game, but I think he's a good in-game adjustment guy. And I think the chiefs were generally better than average in terms of go for it. Pass over expectation was pretty solid. If they run when they should be passing this year because they invested in Kenneth Walker, maybe I'm coming in hot. Special teams. You're at five. I'm at eight. Well, change mine to five. And overall, you're at a 61st percentile. I'm at a 63rd percentile. That puts us both right around plus three fair rating for the chiefs. What is what's your market number? So about a three and a half four. Market fair on chiefs is 2.96. So you're just a shade lower. You need to you need to drop your number if you want to. You're talking the talk. Let's walk the walk. Let's make it a zero. I got to see more clips of moms if he's just sandbagging these practices because he doesn't want to hurt himself and he's ultimately he's what's the meme? What's the the funny line from Star Wars? If he's fully operational and I don't want to be sorely mistakenly one. So what what part of Star Wars is that from? I think it's return to the Jedi. This star is fully operational. Yeah. Oh no. Yeah. When your friends get to the moon base, they're something I don't remember. Oh, that's Jedi. Jedi. It's Jedi when the damper is going on about that. Yeah. He could be very flea. He could be fully operational. We coin and I'm going to be pretty bummed. Yeah. Because I guess like a thing. Here's here's where here's where I'm at. You ready? If I use the kind of what I think are I will adjust to for quarterback and OC if we get some signal that my homes isn't quite right. And if I use the skill position number, that's a little bit more like 50 50 50th percentile. My chief's number is a point seven six, which means week one against the Denver Broncos. I would have the Broncos favored by a meaningful amount as two and a half point dogs. And I don't know that I love the idea of one of my biggest side bets of the season being week one Broncos against the chiefs. I'm sorry. I'm distracted because we remember what you see at porn bots. I haven't blocked this guy because I am trying to figure out what he's about. Are you seeing these comments from Eric? Is he talking about? I don't know. I'm going to read one. Maybe Prince Harry should have a child with a Chinese lady since 1776 six hundred and sixty thousand US military personnel have been killed in combat. The UK forgot about Stonehenge and then became one with a trainee Jesus. Not quite sure with the message. I'm sorry. I get blocked this guy. Anyway, run that back by me one more time. I'm sorry. I'm very distracted because if I use seven insane comments. Basically, if I'm not regressing to market for my homes and the skill group, then I have the Broncos favored week one. Yeah, I'm going to bet on the Broncos. And I'm not dying. I know I'm not. But like the Kelly bet size for that would be pretty substantial. And I'm not really dying for the make a break bet week one Monday night football game betting against moms. Just regular steak. Don't get. We don't do Kelly and week one because week ones too much of a kitchen. Okay. All right. We'll see. I don't know. We don't talk about that much, but I do change the staking on my game space to my edge. Of course. Not not week one week one is if I have a few games I like, they're all the same because I'm usually very wrong and very right out of you. And it'll all come out in the wash. Okay. We just get it. I don't want to be wrong on the wrong ones. Let's look at the schedule Monday night football opener. KC hosts the Denver Broncos right now. It's actually two and a half point favorite for KC in that spot. They then get three games where they are favored by more than a field goal. Hosting the Colts where my homes tore his leg last year. At Miami, where there's seven point favorites and at the Las Vegas Raiders. Right now, Denver has a good enough set of wide receivers that I think they can put sincere pressure on the Kansas City defensive backfield. I don't think the Kansas City past rush is good enough against the fully healthy Denver offensive line to cause pressure and problems for next. I think Denver outs course KC there. And I think it's actually not. It's a good bet on Denver week one. That's where we're 10 week two in these wide receiver root group is all kinds of fucked up. Who knows if they'll be healthy and be able to test your defensive backfield. But if they are, that's a good spot to bet against KC. Miami has no wide receivers. The chargers have weak wide receivers. Seattle has one wide receiver. So it's going to be a while before you're up against an elite quarterback with good wide receivers to really kind of put your your secondary into a bind. In fact, it's probably not until week 13 when you play the Rams and then Rams since he knew England, bam, bam, those are the three games that I'm excited about where you have pretty positive mashups against KC in a perfect world. KC somehow beats the Buffalo bills on Thanksgiving. Everybody's like Alma Holmes is back. KC's rating is back up to a plus three and then you can just dump on them. You can just dump on them. Bam, bam, bam. Like that that's that's the best case scenario here. I don't think it's two and a half would be like don't don't even don't tell me what don't don't don't tell me with a good time. Man, that would be fun. And it's crazy. They don't have a terrible matchup against Seattle. You're right. Even though that's at Seattle. It's a tough one. If you win that game, you have a decent chance to just you're five and two through eight weeks, which is two losses against Denver. That's kind of wild, right? Because Denver might Denver might have to know over you and be like three and four. Yeah. If you lose that first game against Denver. I don't see how you're bouncing back at Denver on a on a bit of a. That's slightly shorter week. Yeah, that's an nasty spot at the at Seattle at Denver. Yeah, that's crazy. You'll lead the division, but you'll be oh and two. You need you need that chargeers when they'll you gotta be out of winning. Yeah, yeah, to be like five and three, oh and three in the division or four and three, that'd be, that'd be a tough hang. I have made eight and two through 11 weeks is not out of the realm of possibility with two losses coming against Denver. Yeah. I just want to world where we can bet on the Rams, Bengals and Patriots all with kind of decent prices against KC. Those are the only three teams they really play though that have exactly the right recipe to hurt them. You know what I mean? Yeah, a bit of a soft landing to where three out of your last four games are at home. Some tougher teams, but you do get the Raiders to close things out at home. If the other side of the coin, Andy, what happens if through eight weeks you've lost twice to the Broncos? You lost to the Chargers. Seattle beats you going away. You couldn't you couldn't score 10 points on Seattle. You had a tough time with Miami and Vegas and Andy came down to have made field all in the last seconds one way or the other, right? Like if that's where we're at with these guys through eight weeks is the market below zero on them or are they still holding onto a mom's deck? Probably you're in neutral. You're a neutral. I would think you're still a league average team. Jets and Arizona catching points against these chiefs. If if those are kind of heavily bet favorite spots, are you going to give them the Jets? I might skip, man. That's not a great matchup, but I would consider the Cardinals. Jets can defend the run. That's fair. They're covers. Yeah, you got to see what the offense what exactly is the offense at that point as well. We need to know a lot more about that. Before I can say, yeah, I'm going to take the Jets in week nine. As I look down this schedule, I worry about KC scoring into the 20s when they're up against a team that can stop the run. I worry that they are going to get gashed when they're up against a team that has a good quarterback and good weapons. And those are I think the times. Those are the times you want to either bet under on a chiefs game or bet against the chiefs on the side. And it may be a lot of times for me this year. There's no matchups as I look at this entire rundown where I'm like in my chops to bet the cheese. Tell you that much. Is that the worst Patrick? Is that the worst three game stretch we've seen on the on a schedule yet? Buffalo Rams Cincinnati all in the road all in a row. That's probably a team's teams. It's a rare that teams have back to back to back. Many teams do not have three state road games. You know, plenty of teams do, but I'd say a majority teams don't even have a three game road stretch anywhere on their schedule. Much less against the favorite for the NFC, the favorite for the AFC and Joe Burrell. Like, your ECS game there is hopefully the Bengals aren't good. You know, that's and that's your third stretch. One of them is a two of them are Thursday games. We go Thursday, Thursday, Sunday. That's a weird stretch, man. And then the Monday night football game after that. You're at home facing last year's AFC title winners off of extra rest. Yeah. Yeah. Who's covering AJ Brown in that mashup, by the way? Who's covering Jamar Chase? Is it Noel Williams? I guess it is. Yeah, Sam Goodpoint too. You're going to upstate New York back to flyover country out to LA. back to fly over country to Northern Kentucky and then back home again to face the Patriots finally. Well, I travel. I don't want. All right, man. Any preseason bets in this team? I don't have anything. West no. Come back player of the year, my home's no. Ooh, that's an interesting one. There's just 300, a 5, see if we can find that on the Cal she's I'm going to start calling it the Cal she's like, that just means prediction markets is going to be one of those like, how you call it skills are Kleenex. Yeah, this is, this is a total non-sequitur, and I know we've already gone over an hour. So sorry to make us go longer, but there's been a bunch of chat GPT commercials lately. And including one where they are that the chat is encouraging an old lady to call it chat GPT. Why not just brand a chat? Everybody would know what you're talking about. Loose the thought. Yeah. Yeah. It's cleaner. It's cleaner. Just call it chat. What the fuck are you doing? Like I, yeah. It's a mission for old people. Yeah. Yeah. It might be, it might be a little dystopic chat GTP or GPT GPT. What is GPT stand for? What is GTP stand for? I know it might be a little, it might be a little dystopic and sad, but like for this might be a pretty good tool for, hey, this is a strange thing here, that like guess maybe they don't have any family. It's not just they have a shitty family that doesn't visit them. They might not have any family and like, yeah, it can, it can make them quite a bit happier. Well, the couple, the couple of commercials I've seen were written by a chat because they made no fucking sense. They were so ridiculous, but I guess some time, as long as we're whining about my least favorite thing is everybody making their graphics and it's like so, so readily apparent. Do you remember the first giveaway that something was, was AI was the M-dash because the M-dash is actually quite useful if you don't always want to use a comma or a semicolon. It's tragically underused, and then it became quite a bit used by any quickly new like, oh, there's three M-dashes in this paragraph, this is the way. Now the AI giveaway is that fucking font that you know, you know the font you see it with the slide, it looks like it's scribbled on there and everyone's poster and it's like, man, you see this from like so many small businesses with their food flyers and stuff, God, just use your own, like you can make an AI poster with your own photos, take pictures of your food because that whatever it put together to make you look like your hamburger, that looks terrible. There are like carrots on that hamburger for some reason, it doesn't know what it's doing. At least we're boiling the fresh water in our country for this, right? All right, man, betting plan for the chiefs is, I'm going to make you a betting plan for the chiefs, make no mistakes, I'm just, I think I'm gonna end up sacking up and just downgrading them a bit on offense, make all right, eight or 10th, which is gonna tell my numbers to bet against them a bunch and just, just do it, write it out. Let's rip. All right. It's called a week. Broncos country, let's ride. Yes, absolutely, I'm not even mad about my preseason future now. I wouldn't actually, I wouldn't be worried about the chargers and the chiefs. Are you? Oh, for sure. Oh, beat it up. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure, if the chargers had, sorry, if the chargers had a schedule like the lines, like the lines, that would have been one of the easiest bets in football this year, but I'll ask. They got the scheduled demons on top of all the other cursed stuff. All right, guys. Yeah, I, uh, schools are gonna, schools are having to go back to like the blue books.