2026 Kansas City Chiefs Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Dive, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dynzik, powered by BetSpurts. Welcome to The Deep Dive. Kansas City Chiefs are your AFC West favorites, Andy. Sometimes when you have a team that underachieves to the degree that the Chiefs did last year, and they have, you know, a relatively, you know, their rating is tied to a man perceived as the best quarterback in football. Who tears his ACL? The next season is a little bit of a buy low opportunity on that squad, because people are like, you know, what have you done for me lately? You went like five and 11 last year, five and 12, whatever their record was. And that's not really the case. The respect for the Chiefs, who went six and 11 last year, excuse me, has not really diminished at all. I think in the exact same breath where we were talking about how people, I think, are perceiving the Broncos record last year correctly, which was it was a little lucky. It was a little schedule driven. It was a little bit winning the close calls. People are correctly assessing the 2025 season with Mahomes under center as very unlucky. It has been broadly pointed out that they were unable to win one score games last year, which had been a staple of the Andy Reid-Pat Mahomes experience to that point in life. So it was a surprise. And so here we sit now with the Chiefs favored in a very competitive division with clear, obvious holes on their roster. Like, we just covered the Broncos. We just covered the Chargers, Andy. Is there an obvious hole on either of those rosters? Like a hole? On the Chargers? Either of the rosters that we've covered and of the contenders in the West. The offensive line right now for the Chargers. Okay. And I think, and if you want to. I wanted to point out negatives on the Broncos. It's like, Nick's probably isn't that good. You know, he's still, he's still just a mediocre quarterback who looked really good in a good system. And that the defense, defenses are hard to, it's hard to keep a top five defense year after year. Yeah. Aggression comes for everyone. So, you know, the, but those aren't like huge gaping. Showstoppers. You know, unless, you know, unless Slater's fucked and then the Chargers might be in a little bit of trouble. Yeah. I think the kind of the point I'm trying to make though, is that like broadly, those rosters are pretty complete. Yeah. No, very good rosters. The Chiefs rosters, very much not. And nobody's really kind of taking that seriously. They're just kind of assuming that Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes, Pat Mahomes may be more even so than Andy Reid, will elevate all of these pieces to minimum. slight favorites in this division which i find pretty fascinating yeah they've they've been trying to fix the same holes for a few years just wow you know the it's been the what's the tape on the the water tank the flex that you know offensive line and corner um as they just continue to try to solve those issues for and then you know you had the disaster i would have said we can't win those games the bros who you know well wide receiver as well yeah but the bros who just made a bunch of money always betting on mahomes late when they were down yeah for a couple years gave some of that money back like oh why didn't they win that game they also in that game it's like it's not gonna it's not a gravy train that lasts forever bud yeah um i'm i'm definitely uh i definitely see process failure with this front office they put a lot of assets into trying to address the offensive line and wide receiver room and to me it doesn't look like it's clearly born fruit they have some they have some new line they have some warm piece you know they have they hit they have some hits like just don't get me wrong i would say is your best center in football um your mileage may vary in your opinion of josh simmons um but he surely clearly possesses talent if he chooses to play um the wide receiver room it doesn't look like there have been many answers found um the tight end room continues to age out of relevancy one of your wide receivers was rehabbing injury in prison is that good it's not great i mean i'm glad he was working on it um in order to uh turn around the most stagnant rushing attack in football you had to pay super bowl mvp a lot of money uh and because of making that decision in terms of allocating resources you lost your entire secondary to the same team two of them then yeah but you lost three what three two corners in a safety that started yeah and the only guy that's consistently been able to generate pressure for your defense is chris jones he is now entering his age 32 season getting up there um no edge help for him uh you've had to make some tough decisions on how you're going to allocate your resources and the reason you've had to make those tough decisions is because winning so much every year and you've had to make some tough decisions on how you're going to allocate your resources drafting at the end of the draft this puts you in a precarious situation where you've had to take some risks you've had to take some swings you haven't hit on a lot of those players and as a result this is now a a team where you have an elite quarterback in the homes a coach with a track record that people will go to war with as a top three coach in the nfl without really sweating and uh and a lot of problems on the roster in my opinion yeah there's a big question mark in like every section yeah i think you can say that yeah even even the one we feel the strongest is going to be your strength maybe your two strengths coaching slash play calling and quarterback there's huge question marks for me there offensive line has four question marks skilled skill group definitely has some question marks and overpay um defensive line you know who's doing it beyond jones and carl off to us and i think it's going to be a lot of fun uh yeah secondary is a bunch of bunch of replacements i don't want to say replacement level players but replacements to last year's starters so a lot of this feels like a team that has a wide range of possibilities for this yeah and one of them is they get the shit kicked out of them by the broncos week one and that's just who they are like oh the homes homes looks good all right so the if you haven't been playing paying a ton of attention in camp that was something that everybody wanted to see he looks fine like he didn't play in the preseason game but anything i've seen stuff from camper reports from camp seems like he's confident and able to plant and move around in that leg that knee so i hopefully that's not an issue but who knows how how that goes you know they say injuries like that a lot of it's mental you know getting into a game going up against a live defense and having confidence to take a hit to you know plant on that leg they say it's it's you know after months and months of feeling that leg not being able to hold you up or do what you wanted to do trusting it so so it was interesting to see someone come back because it goes one of two ways it feels like it's like oh they're they're clearly not the same person or adrian peterson isn't smart enough to know that his leg is hurt and he's gonna run for 2 000 yards what's the most uh kind of compelling comp for back off of this acl in your opinion you're hoping it's the brady season right remember when he came back are you that's fun it's more fun if he's good the league is more fun if patrick mohams is patrick mohams i agree i agree i was hoping you were gonna say that brady season um for those who don't remember uh tom brady in the first game of 2008 when the patriots were healthy favorites to win the super bowl uh towards acl what was the guy's name that got him do you remember i forget the guy who got him it was like 2007 man 2008 yeah uh anyway brady goes down patriots uh end up uh going 11 and 5 don't make the playoffs with matt castle uh brady comes back in 2009 patriots win 10 and 6 lost in the wild card round um they were they won their division at 10 6 oh great call again where's your come at that back it up there you did um yeah so 2009 coming back off of um uh the acl the patriots won their division lost in the wild card round um all in all it was it was a uh i think as good as you can hope as you kind of are laying out uh for coming back off of an acl um i just do want to kind of point out in that season um the patriots struggled pretty a couple times early on uh you know just up and down play before they unloaded a win against the titans 59 to 0 uh in the snow uh week six and then it was like all right brady's back right so like the clear and obvious point i'm trying to make here is like it doesn't matter how elite of a quarterback you are like sometimes coming off of uh you know an injury like this is you cannot expect week one to look like week one on you know this the in a normal year the difference between that team and this team in my opinion is that that team was loaded loaded loaded you had julian randy moss and west walker that was your wide receiver room uh you had you know ben watson was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid you had you know ben watson was a solid player and he was a solid player and he was a solid tight end you had an elite offensive line with matt matt light logan mankins dan kopp and steven neal and nick kaiser uh and you had an amazing defense with guys like vince wilfork and gerard mayo uh and uh adalius thomas you know just just tons of tons of uh of stars across that team that's not what this cheese foster looks like it's not yeah well this world work is not you have at least have chris jones i guess um but yeah vince wilfork is not on this team um so i think what i'm getting at is that like expecting that that's where you're gonna land in a tougher division with a weaker team i think is asking a lot out of my arms this year and i would also say the um that that this is just like setting the goal posts right we're setting the goal posts for for what to expect right have you have you watched have you watched the clips of them so far yeah again it's you have you've seen a good amount of his clips throwing not not really i've seen a few like i want to see him plant more than throw i want to see him comfortable in his legs but i've seen i've seen some and it's one of those things where i'm fine he looks okay he looks good he looks like he's coming back but like you mentioned what can we expect from the rest of the team around him because that is a huge part it's the most important position in sports but you've seen good quarterbacks not get it done because the rest of the team and the roster assholes so i don't know it'll be it'll be interesting i i feel like two out of every 10 clips i've seen of him throwing there's mechanics problems going on with his lower body i don't know i guess i'll have to watch more i don't know he seems like he's planting on it fine there's always kind of a there's a he's always kind of a warm wonky thrower anyway he throws from wherever he wants to he yeah that you know he doesn't he doesn't need to be you know in the in the stance of you know like why a tittle on a football card well i uh i didn't want to go like mega negative here on my homes but i i do i mean i i worry a lot about his arc and his progression carrying you know into you know into uh the future uh as an elite you know elite passer in the nfl if his mechanics are suspect and i do think your point about he always had a little wonky mechanics is true and i think that's a negative um i think it became like the arc of my homes and i'm not trying to get too you know qualitative here but early on where he had just an absolutely elite arm paired with an elite weapon in tyreek hill and in just brilliant play design and play calling by by the way i think that's a good point i think that's a good point i think that's a good point by reed was just you know it was it was um match made in heaven some of the best offense we've ever seen uh hill leaves my homes has to adjust his game he's able to overcome the loss of the elite weapon and in my opinion it wasn't because he was attacking different parts of the field which i mean i guess he was he was attacking a little bit shallower because the you know he was adjusting to the defensive trends and he was but he was still just be truly spectacular hitting the 11 to 20 yard passes on the sidelines consistently uh and you know exercising the advantage he had with kelsey against linebackers and safeties which you know was you know another cheap code um what made him even more special in my opinion was his ability to extend plays his ability to scramble when it mattered uh and you know just in just was unsackable uh and uh it all kind of added up to a like a you know an aura um a vibe uh that every defense in the nfl feared and respected and independent of his injury andy i feel like that's faded a little do you agree maybe not say it or are we too old to say aura and vibe no i don't know we're not it feels to me like it feels quantify that though yeah well i think you can look at his completion percentage over expected last year look at some of the uh you know some of his accuracy on deep balls is uh falling off um i think the um there were a couple of statistics last year that were not in the luck category for mahomes before his injury that had people scratching their head um , did you engage in it yeah i mean it was a little bit because i mean look at the what what week was he injured drew week 12 later 13 i think it was later i think it was later than that yeah it was the it was a colt game yeah what was their record they were six and five with an overtime win over the colts in that game yeah i mean it's not like they were running away with the division and then everything fell apart that one week like they were they were a middling team at that point by record and by results like it didn't it didn't feel the same i mean again in vibes and whatever else and you can go look at some of the advanced stats and he wasn't doing some of the stuff that got him to win those close games so you wonder if he was carrying something before the big injury too hmm i don't know it's hard to it's hard to put a a fact on that but i don't know it's it's hard to it's hard to put a a fact on that but i don't know if he was carrying something before the big injury too i don't know it's hard to it's hard to put a a fact on that but i don't know if he was carrying something before the big injury too it's hard to it's hard to put a finger on exactly what what was going wrong other than they didn't win close games um i think it was a lot of the efficient i mean i okay my complete and total transparency what went wrong for the chiefs last year and why they didn't win close games was because the rushing attack was atrocious and it put the passing attack in in disadvantageous situations where it was a must-pass situation and he had wide receivers that couldn't separate and he was less efficient and less accurate frankly and uh you know they're basically we we the limit does exist for how much mahomes can you know how much mahomes witchcraft can overcome in terms of adversity and i think you found it last year before he got hurt and i think that the general setup of the way that this team is rostered does not set up for a quick bounce like step forward bounce like step forward bounce like step forward before we really compete for a championship before we really compete for a championship before we really compete for a championship again next year to me i think it's going to again next year to me i think it's going to again next year to me i think it's going to be a longer arc uh and i want to be ahead be a longer arc uh and i want to be ahead be a longer arc uh and i want to be ahead of a mark the market expecting everything of a mark the market expecting everything of a mark the market expecting everything is just going to be fine for mahomes i is just going to be fine for mahomes i is just going to be fine for mahomes i want to be in the situation where want to be in the situation where want to be in the situation where this first stretch of the season could this first stretch of the season could this first stretch of the season could look much worse than people are used to look much worse than people are used to look much worse than people are used to seeing from him seeing from him seeing from him because of this combination of being a because of this combination of being a because of this combination of being a little bit behind physically and working little bit behind physically and working little bit behind physically and working with pieces that are not very good with pieces that are not very good with pieces that are not very good yeah it's funny too because what you're yeah it's funny too because what you're yeah it's funny too because what you're saying makes sense there's a perfect saying makes sense there's a perfect saying makes sense there's a perfect world where everybody is here world where everybody is here world where everybody is here we come into the season everybody sees we come into the season everybody sees we come into the season everybody sees it downgrades it reacts and then six it downgrades it reacts and then six it downgrades it reacts and then six eight weeks into the season it's like eight weeks into the season it's like eight weeks into the season it's like they've been oversold they're they've been oversold they're they've been oversold they're underrated mahomes puts together a underrated mahomes puts together a underrated mahomes puts together a couple of special performances he starts couple of special performances he starts couple of special performances he starts to build his way back and then you know to build his way back and then you know to build his way back and then you know it becomes an exercise and it becomes an exercise and it becomes an exercise and you know how do you price them for 2027 you know how do you price them for 2027 gone there's no reason to fear this guy gone there's no reason to fear this guy gone there's no reason to fear this guy right i'm i i disagree that it's going right i'm i i disagree that it's going right i'm i i disagree that it's going to happen outside to happen outside to happen outside because of pat patrick beat me to it because of pat patrick beat me to it because of pat patrick beat me to it and only because he's allowed to just and only because he's allowed to just and only because he's allowed to just type things and i had to wait my turn type things and i had to wait my turn type things and i had to wait my turn but yeah that it feels like there's some but yeah that it feels like there's some but yeah that it feels like there's some spots in that schedule early where it's spots in that schedule early where it's like oh this team's fine you know yeah like oh this team's fine you know yeah like oh this team's fine you know yeah they they had a tough week but that was they they had a tough week but that was they they had a tough week but that was week one and my homes hadn't played in week one and my homes hadn't played in week one and my homes hadn't played in so long and that's a tough defense and so long and that's a tough defense and so long and that's a tough defense and uh we're not gonna worry about that uh we're not gonna worry about that uh we're not gonna worry about that game and then they're gonna play some of game and then they're gonna play some of game and then they're gonna play some of these easier games these easier games these easier games and people are gonna be bought in and and people are gonna be bought in and then i do worry and then i do worry and then i do worry and kind of the overarching theme of me kind of the overarching theme of me kind of the overarching theme of me rating especially the offensive side of rating especially the offensive side of rating especially the offensive side of this ball was this ball was this ball was i kind of got to give them the benefit i kind of got to give them the benefit i kind of got to give them the benefit of the doubt of the doubt of the doubt because of the because of the because of the you know the you know the you know the the body of work the body of work the body of work for i mean even for i mean even for i mean even reed spagnolo b enemy mahomes if you reed spagnolo b enemy mahomes if you If you want to put the body of work on those four men, that said it's one of those teams where you know you talk about this a lot where hey i'm not going to adjust this team really hard because of well who they're playing first off or the situation i know it's a tough game against denver and it's it'll be hard to not overreact if they go up there and just you know the offense looks abhorrent against what could be a top three defense but i think overall i'm going to be quicker to adjust this team down if it just looks like it's not so much the defense it's he's not back the mechanics look a little jankier and the offense just isn't as crisp anyway especially in wins against some of the softer teams throughout that first quarter of the season it might be hey we're not upgrading the team because like you won but uh this is the best team in the dfc let me uh let me let me crystal ball this for you then okay first um eight weeks of the season against the bad teams ugly wins fueled by kenneth walker getting 35 touches a game yeah against the good teams non-competes that's what i'm saying like i i can't upgrade them against some of these bad teams teams if it's just hey no i'm just saying no no i'm saying like if that's the reality like what's the what's the temperature in the market for the chiefs like are people literally just like i'll sell it a lot like i like they can't they can't they can't even beat bad teams like this is this is concerning i don't know people people still i think there'll be a group in the in the market that's still willing to buy in because again of the history the body of work if they have a good enough record even if it's you can clearly see that there's a lot of people that are willing to be hey that was a bad team and it was mostly the running games and spags spags was in his bag against a young or bad quarterback and they put a good defensive scheme they won 14 to 3 like clearly not the you know not the team that we saw at the peak of the kc powerhouse so it's it's gonna be a team it's gonna be easy because it's super it's not like the jets where we have to catch them on the one o'clock you know gotta go find them on sunday ticket like they're gonna they're gonna be in your they're gonna be in your face they're playing on thanksgiving they're playing on uh they're playing on primetime one two three four five six six standalones this year for them yeah so and a lot of high profile games too it's a tough schedule uh which is another part of the equation here so i guess where i'm kind of at is i think we're in a moment that we're we're willing to downgrade this team quickly if it doesn't feel right oh for sure and i think and also even more than that like i just i want to be a slightly ahead of the negative downturn in opinion on them to then kind of catch the crest of the wave at the right time and it might not be this year yeah there might not be a buyback spot where hey we're getting back in yeah you might just be like no we're fine this is yeah this is never being yeah yeah that's this is a team that could go six and eleven against the spread this year and you know how many of those 11 losses are going to be in my account zero like i'm not going out of my way to bet on the chiefs with uh against any of the bad teams or uh you know in any of the coin flippy spots they were really good they were not like this team that covered a lot you remember that it was it was always like ah they won but oh of course well yeah because they just they just smothered their opponents in second halves yeah yeah they were never any fun to bet on because it's like hey this was a game they were never ever ever in danger of losing but they were never going to cover eight and a half yeah like it just was not in the cards yeah yeah um so what did you think of their offseason overall uh good they added a quarterback they added a quarterback okay patrick mahomes he's a good quarterback too roster at the end of the year that is important um yeah they added two quarterbacks andy yeah to be fair they did all right so justin fields yeah then the negatives we went over all the negatives but creed humphrey and chris jones are still very good bolton had a good season carl loft is a little underrated you kind of shit on the pass rush i'm a carl loft this guy and you know what kelsey 1.47 yards per route run in a season where we've done for a few years we're like is he done done done done still found it at times so we'll see if we get one more of those i don't know it's it's harder to believe every year the secondary secondary wasn't wasn't great and then it got torn apart as a as as it was in the offseason anyway you kept shamari connor who was a terrible coverage grade if you want to go there so uh the tackles didn't play well xaver worthy existed and played to be fair do you remember what was it was it like friendly fire was that the injury for his shoulder we ran into like kelsey or something uh no he got it was like a third play of the chargers game i think it was defense but it might have been friendly i thought either way the friendly fire one was rishi rice yeah yeah yeah so um but yeah worthy had a labrum that needed to be repaired anyway so the offseason was good i think it was a good game i think it was a good game i think it was a good game yeah i think it was a good game i think it was a good game go overpaid for kenneth walker whatever you haven't been able to draft the right running back it's an upgrade justin fields is a pretty good backup honestly if you want to give him a little bit of daps for that it doesn't hurt to have a backup who can play football um he started plenty of games he went and got aloha gilman the safety from baltimore and kadir kohu from miami because that's who you want to go pick your defensive secondary pieces from the miami dolphins uh but hey you lost starters if you squint the secondary does it not give you 2025 dolphins flashbacks a little bit like a lot like kind of a lot right it's not it's not there's no storm duck it's not i was just gonna say we need to get in the building yeah but uh there's a lot of guys here with a lot to prove that they can handle these roles um tonga what's your thoughts on tonga uh he's a good player yeah run defender you had a good run on paper that makes sense putting him next to christians we'll see yeah uh emmanuel ogba from pussy with jacksonville last year uh he's been with a few teams i believe this is actually his second stint in kansas city another defensive end and then as you mentioned the exodus in the secondary uh trent mcduffie was traded to los angeles jalen watson followed in free agency brian cook your safety safety brian cook that's yes safety 890 snaps went to cincinnati it is a lot of snaps that's a ton of snaps uh that have left the secondary isaiah pajako was replaced and upgraded at what cost though and then you drafted uh mansoor delane this is a what pick did they have true uh they had pick number nine that they traded up six to get the crazy it's just jarring to see pick six for the chiefs when it was so much of oh pick 31 32 oh they took they took clyde edwards delair good like they actually drafted somebody who can play and they needed to again they you need a mcduffie replacement so you made a good pick for cleveland you took monster delay in the lsu cornerback you took peter woods from clemson later in the first round that's an interior rotation piece it's gonna probably you know right beside chris jones there especially when you're looking on uh uh pass rushing downs i believe uh edge from oklahoma mason thomas he is apparently pure pass rush that's gonna be the guy who's gonna rotate through on the edges you got another corner safety uh nickel competition kennedy jaden kennedy from oregon a running back for nebraska maybe a change base third down guy if he catches on a slot receiver from cincinnati named cyrus allen and then a quarterback garrett nosmeyer a developmental piece behind justin fields and pat homes pat homes pat mahomes from lsu um they have not retired his number at lsu either so far in my notes andy reed is on year 14 spagnola is retained again the enemy is back although and i i hate to delve into shit like this that's not football related but uh the enemy having a a weird camp slash off season as far as uh some of the distractions there i can't imagine no shit i can't imagine i just think about you try to put yourself in those shoes and obviously we have much lower uh stress jobs than nfl coordinators and coaches who are working 100 hours a week i think about like times in my life when like my dad had some illness or like something bad happened and trying to concentrate on my job. And it's like, Oh, I'm just not going to be productive this week. Like it's just, I, it would be very hard to need a personal day or two. It'd be very hard to be really focused in on, you know, getting this offense ready for the season with some of the distractions. It's hard to do that when there's a really good Monday night football game. I get distracted by like, Oh, I get, I get vacation plans in three weeks. I should start packing. Um, anyway, uh, he is back. And then it sounded like when he was out, Joe Blamire ran the offense passing game coordinator when the enemy was, uh, out dealing with that stuff. Uh, the entirety of the offense to me felt like we can't solve all the problems in one off season. So we're going to have to pick and choose where to allocate. Our problem solving. Yeah. Did you deal with the rest of the problems later that they know any, any offensive lineman fixes in that, in that long stretch there? No. I mean, apparently Cyrus Allen is the answer at wide receiver, according to everyone who's at chiefs, chiefs practices. Um, is that good or bad? Your fifth round wide receiver choice is, is showing up all of the wide receivers in your, in your depth chart. Is that good or bad? I honestly, uh, I read that as bad. I hope Cyrus Allen has a great season is this a long contributor here, but, uh, I don't know. Like it's probably for the most part, if you have a guy who's drafted that deep and you have some established names and you're excited, more excited about that guy, it's usually bad. But I, I try to, I try to take it with a grain of salt or what's the opposite of a grain of salt. I try to look at the silver lining is people find diamonds in the rough sometimes. And maybe, maybe they don't, maybe they don't even realize Jacoby lane as a diamond in the rough for the Ravens is a good sign. You know, it could be, Hey, we got a puka, you know, sometimes it works out. You never know. That's fair. You could be generally bad. That's generally bad. Uh, the, uh, uh, hopefully that bite anybody. Yeah, that's fair point. Um, yeah, the Rams might not have a puka to start the season. We'll see. Um, all right. The, uh, I think they have the off season to me felt like we can't solve everything in one off season. Um, so we're going to address these now because it makes sense to do so with the resources at our disposal and we'll address the rest at a later date and hope my homes comes back and can ultimately get back to his level of play by the end of the season. Um, we shall see if that is a fair bet. But, uh, again, like this is an incomplete roster. This team is not contending for a title. If my homes pulls off a title, contention run with this squad of players, um, I will retract recant and retract all of my aura and vibe commentary with extreme prejudice. Um, so this is funny from the chat. It says these quick, small wide receivers over form in camp every year. Most don't pan out. Um, you wonder if that's like, Hey, we're just not, we're not hitting in camp yet. So yeah, 150, pound slot receiver, who's twitchy. He's doing good because he hasn't gotten laid out. Yeah. But like when he embarrasses your first over your first pick Minnesota Delane, like, is that a good sign that he can embarrass a good cornerback? Or is that a problem with your cornerback? These are questions we need answers to, um, Andy, let's go to ratings. But before we do, uh, be sure to give serious consideration to signing up for the professional football contest at circus sports. This, NFL season, uh, I first con first, uh, uh, this is millions eight, right? I think this is millions eight. Um, I've done seven of them and I will do as many of them as they continue to offer them as I am living on the earth. Uh, it is an extremely fun contest to throw your hat and try to prognosticate at a 65%. Uh, I think it's a really good thing. I think it's a really good thing. Go 10-6-1. Is that enough? yeah that's 17. uh the rice and worthy worry me kelsey's 36. kenneth walker's great but are we really crafting an offense that's built around running the ball it sounds like they are that's that's crazy to me i'll bump it up if we are because i think that could work maybe we'll see with this offensive line which brings us to offensive line where i'm probably high i actually the more i spent with this today i hate my number and i want to go below five i'm at a 5.2 and it's honestly because they have standout play from their center creed humphrey and i i still believe in trey smith i think trey smith is a good player um simmons simmons is a wild card very very very strange that no one in the kansas city media really felt that it was um reasonable to inform the public as to whatever was actually going on with him last year just i mean it's private decisions had some it was personal stuff i did a freedom of information act request and got nothing back from from a guy from a guy who's who's draft who slid in the draft process because people questioned his commitment to playing football elected not to play football for half the season and everybody just yawns and lo walks past it what the i really don't get that anyway it was weird i'm at a 5.4 a lot of it is just having the best center in football in creed humphrey um simmons played eight games trey played 12. trey was above average uh jalen morris who projected right tackle um i don't hate that right side i guess how what's what's here are you a negative are you a negative on i like trey smith more than i like jalen moore are you a negative on kingsley yes suah matiah yes kingsley is a minus jalen moore is a minus simmons is a neutral creed is a plus plus trey is a plus i get to 5.2 okay 5.4 for me and i might bring this down depending of all my numbers across the chiefs probably the one i'm not gonna touch i think that's probably i think they're right at five maybe a little buff i could i i could very very clearly see myself ticking with the other ones that i have but that one's gonna be five um they are the fifth best offense by my ratings it's 67th percentile um i say my ratings basically to get the market number get close to regressing close to the market number is how i got there um and yeah it's uh i don't know i guess i'm going to be surprised if they're top five will you yes where are you for overall i'd have to get it you got to be pretty close to top five you gotta be like top eight i mean yeah just having that high of a quarterback oc number kind of elevates you there oh like ninth eighth yeah um i have a i have a overall yeah it's like a 63rd percentile offense okay uh their defense again was very tough to come up with fairs i think i probably undershot the run stop based on the addition of uh tonga um and i probably overshot the coverage so it'll come out in the wash but i'm at a 4.9 for run stop 4.8 for pass rush 5.0 for coverage if chris jones gets hurt pass rush for me would drop into the high twos low threes yeah um coverage for me at five i want to just give you a quick defense of this and see if any of this checks out to you okay um noel williams n-o-h-l williams when i saw his name on the depth chart i was like uh-oh that's our cb1 he's good he's good i was kind of surprised he only played 430 snaps last year but his coverage grade was good i'm not not like whoa this guy's changing the position but like he's he's not hurting you he's not hurting you he's not hurting you um this uh the guy he's next to uh chamari connor he should not be he should be sorry on an nfl team he should not be starting he needs to he needs to gain 20 pounds and play more in the box honestly the guy that's behind him on the depth chart jayden hicks is like is better which is hilarious we'll see if the spagnol presumably will identify that and make that change if that's the way that goes um lloyd gilman i don't love but he's and again you have no continuity it's it's so many yeah gilman from baltimore cove from miami delaine from a college team yeah it's just it's a bunch of guys playing back there yeah in a defense that asks a lot from from yes yes uh yeah it's always been good we've always been impressed with what spags has done but yeah so delaine is delaine is a wild card with the pressure yeah delaine is a wild card and then this other guy the starting nickel chris roland wallace he does not look very good he's now that's a tiny sample size delaine sample size is zero so we're kind of shooting and we're kind of guessing here but like if we get through if they get through and we get through and we get through and we get they go up against a couple of good quarterbacks which when we look at the schedule you'll see is gonna not gonna get this feedback for a while but when they go up against some good quarterbacks if they get cooked um i don't think we should be surprised there's some problem there's but there's three potential problems three weak links i think in the secondary here i'm lower than you i'm at i'm at 4.7 you know why i ultimately bumped back up to i was i was coming in low i bumped back up to the five because both um drew tranquil and nick bolton are good coverage linebackers they're both good so like you're gonna be able to cover the screen game well you're gonna be able to cover tight ends reasonably i think you're just gonna get your you're just gonna get reamed by anyone with a good quarterback and and good weapons in the passing attack right like the patriots man it's a shame they're not on this schedule what what fun it would be to bet the patriots against the chiefs this year with like the drake may combine with the uh the weapons in that passing game that would be fun um there's not many teams on their schedule where you're really excited about the wide receivers though especially weeks three and four so lucky who knows maybe he mixes it up but we're gonna go a bunch of uh what they call the amoeba front yeah the amorphous hey there's seven guys and four of them we're rushing four on every down but it's gonna be a different four and we're expecting a lot of man coverage we're rotating out of the you know you you go too high safeties you rotate to you rotate to a man man coverage back there and you're expecting a rookie uh a nickelback we don't know much about and a strong safety to just play a blitzes corners and safeties at a pretty high rate too so it's gonna be very interesting to see what the spags does with the secondary secondary is kind of the crux of the what happens to this defense because pass rush is going to be fine to slightly above average based on what carl off just says i think chris jones is gonna be great carl off just is good and then you have i i kind of miss char mike dana in this spot i'd take him i guess uh carl's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's gonna be great i think he's a man who was on this team at one point but yeah ogba he's 32 you have a 32 year old pass rusher you need more of those so i'm probably a little high with my 5.8 and then run stop i'm higher than you as well because of the the tonga thing and you know chris jones isn't great against the run but doesn't have to be okay we don't overall we have it's a league average overall it's a league average defense for me it looks like you're going to be above league average by a hair i'm right at it um your coaching number is lower than mine um i thought there were some i i think i hold i still hold andy reed up as kind of one of the better second half coaches to bet on as far as adjustments go and it can be adjustments to put away a win it can be adjustments to uh getting back into a game but uh i think he's a good in-game adjustment guy and i think the chiefs were generally better than average in terms of go for it um pass over expectation was pretty solid if they run when they should be passing this year because they invested in kenneth walker maybe i uh maybe i'm coming in hot special teams you're at five i'm at eight well i'll change mine to five uh and overall you're at a 61st percentile i'm at a 63rd percentile that puts us both right around plus three fair rating for the chiefs what is what what's your market number so about three and a half four uh market fair on chiefs is 2.96 so you're just a shade lower you need to you need to drop your number if you want to you're talking the talk let's walk the walk let's make it let's make it a zero so i gotta see more clips in the homes if he's just sandbagging these practices because he doesn't want to hurt himself and he's ultimately he's uh it what's the meme uh what's the uh the uh the funny line from star wars uh if he's full if he's fully uh operational uh and i i don't want to be sorely mistaken week one so um what is what part of star wars is that from i think it's return of the jedi is fully operational yeah oh no no yeah when your friends get to the moon base they're something i don't know that's jedi jedi it's jedi when the emperor is going on about that yeah he could be very you know he could be fully operational week one and i'm gonna be pretty bummed if i'm exposed yeah um the because i guess like the thing like here you're right here's here's here's where here's where i'm at you ready if i use the kind of what i think are i will adjust to for quarterback and oc if we get some signal that my homes isn't quite right and if i use the skill position number that's a little bit more like 55 you know 50th percentile my chief's number is a 0.76 which means week one against the denver broncos i would have the broncos favored by a meaningful amount as two and a half point dogs and i don't know that i love the idea of one of my biggest side bets of the season being week one broncos against the chiefs i'm sorry i'm distracted because we remember when you see it porn bots i haven't blocked this guy because i'm trying to figure out what he's about are you seeing these comments from eric um is he talking about i don't know because i'm gonna read one maybe prince harry should have a child with a chinese lady since 1776 660 000 u.s military personnel have been killed in combat the uk forgot about stonehenge and then became one with a tranny jesus not quite sure what the message is anyway run that back by me one more time i'm sorry it was very distracted because if i use seven insane comments and basically if i'm not regressing to market for my homes and the skill group then i have the broncos favored week one yeah i i'm going to bet on the broncos and i'm not dying i know i'm not but it like the kelly bet size for that would be pretty substantial and i'm not really dying for the make or break bet week one monday night football game betting against my homes oh just just regular steak don't get we know we don't do kelly in week one because week week week one's too much of a it'll get you okay all right um we'll see i don't know we don't talk about that much but i do change the staking on my games based on my edge of course not not week one week one is if i have a few games i like it they're all the same because i'm usually very wrong and very right out of you and it'll all come out in the wash okay we're just gonna i don't want to be wrong on the wrong ones let's look at the uh schedule monday night football opener casey hosts the denver broncos right now it's actually two and a half point favorite for casey in that spot they then get three games where they are favored by more than a field goal hosting the colts where my homes tore his leg last year at miami where they're seven point favorites and at the las vegas raiders right now denver has a good enough set of wide receivers that i think they can put sincere pressure on the kansas city defensive backfield i don't think the kansas city pass rush is good enough against the fully healthy denver offensive line to cause pressure and problems for nicks i think denver outscores casey there and i think it's actually not it's it's a good bet on denver week one that's where i'm at um week two indies wide receiver root group is all kinds of things that i think they can put sincere pressure on who knows if they'll be healthy and be able to test your your defensive backfield but if they are that's a good spot to bet against casey miami has no wide receivers las vegas has no wide receivers the chargers have weak wide receivers seattle has one ride receiver so it's going to be a while before you're up against an elite quarterback with good wide receivers to really kind of put your your um uh your secondary into a bind in fact it's probably not until week 13 when you play the rams and then rams is going to be a good spot to bet against casey miami has no wide receivers las vegas since he new england bam bam bam those are the three games that i'm excited about where you have pretty positive matchups against casey in a perfect world casey somehow beats the buffalo bills on thanksgiving everybody's like all my homes is back casey's rating is back up to a plus three and then you can just dump on them for the house you can just dump on them bam bam bam like that that's that's the best case scenario here i don't think it's two and a half would be electric don't yeah don't even don't tempt me with it don't don't don't tempt me with a good time um man that would be fun we'll see yeah it's crazy they don't have a terrible matchup against seattle you're right even though that's at seattle that's a tough one if you win that game you have a decent chance to just you're five and two through eight weeks with just two losses against denver that's kind of wild right because denver denver might denver might have two no over you and be like three and four yeah if you lose that first game against denver i don't see how you're bouncing back at denver on a on a bit of a uh slightly shorter week yeah that's a nasty spot at the at seattle at denver yeah that's crazy yeah you'll lead the division but you'll be oh and two uh you need you need that chargers win though you gotta you gotta win against the chargers yeah oh to be like five and three oh and three in the division or four and three that'd be it'd be a tough hang i mean eight and two through 11 weeks is not out of the realm of possibility with the two losses coming against denver yeah i just want a world where we can bet on the rams bengals and patriots all with uh kind of decent prices against uh casey there those are the only three teams they really play though that have exactly the right recipe to hurt them you know what i mean yeah a bit of a soft landing to where we're at right now where four three out of your last four games are at home some tougher teams but you do get the raiders to close things out at home if the other side of the coin andy what happens if through eight weeks you've lost twice to the broncos you lost to the chargers seattle beat you and going away you couldn't you couldn't score 10 points on seattle uh you had a tough time with miami and vegas and uh indy came down to a made field goal in the last seconds one way or the other right like if that's where we're at with these guys through eight weeks is the market below zero on them or are they still holding on to a mom's tax probably you're in neutral you're a neutral i would think you're still a league average team jets atlanta arizona catching points against these chiefs if if those are kind of heavily bet favorite spots are you gonna maybe not the jets i might skip man that's not a great matchup but uh i would i'd consider the cardinals just can defend the run that's fair they're covered yeah you gotta see what the offense what what exactly is the offense at that point as well we'll need to know a lot more about that before i can say yeah i'm gonna take the jets in week nine as i look down this schedule i worry about kc scoring into the 20s when they're up against a team that can stop the run i worry that they are going to get gashed when they're up against a team that has a good quarterback and good weapons and those are i think the times those are the times you want to either bet under on a chiefs game or bet against the chiefs on the side and it may be a lot of times for me this year there's no matchups as i look at this entire rundown where i'm licking my chops to bet the chiefs tell you that much is that the worst patrick that's is that the worst three-game stretch we've seen on the on a schedule yet buffalo ram cincinnati all on the road all in a row like i probably is teams teams it's rare that teams have back to back to back many teams do not have three state road games you know plenty of teams do but i'd say majority teams don't even have a three-game road stretch anywhere on their schedule much less against the favorite for the nfc the favorite for the afc and joe burrow like your easiest game there is hopefully the bingles aren't good you that's your third stretch one of them is a uh two of them are thursday games so you go thursday thursday sunday that's a weird stretch man and then the monday night football game after that you're at home facing last year's afc title winners uh off of extra rest yeah yeah who's covering aj brown in that mashup by the way who's covering jamar chase is it noel williams guess it is yeah sam good point too you're going to upstate new york back to fly over country out to LA. back to fly over country to Northern Kentucky, and then back home again to face the Patriots. Finally, I travel a lot of orange. All right, man. Any preseason bets in this team? I don't have anything. West. No. Comeback player of the year. Mahomes. No. Ooh, that's an interesting minus 300. See if we can find that on the Cal cheese. I'm going to start calling it the Cal cheese. Like that just means prediction markets. It's going to be one of those, like how you call it skills are Kleenex. Yeah, this is, this is a total non sequitur. And I know we've already gone over an hour, so sorry to make us go longer, but there's been a bunch of chat GPT commercials lately. And including one where they're that chat is encouraging an old lady to call it chat GPT. Why not just brand a chat? Everybody would know what you're talking about. Lose the, the it's cleaner. It's cleaner. Just call it chat. What the fuck are you doing? Like I, yeah. Especially for old people. Yeah. Like it might be, it might be a little dystopic. Chad GTP or GPT GP. What does GPT stand for? What does GTP? Stand for it might be a little set. It might be a little dystopic and sad, but like for this might be a pretty good tool for, Hey, this is a super companionship that like, guess maybe they don't have any family. It's not just, they have a shitty family that doesn't visit them. It might not have any family. And like it can, it can make them quite a bit happier. Cause well, the couple, the couple of commercials I've seen were written by a chat because they made no fucking sense. They were, it's so ridiculous. My, as long as I get some time, as long as we're, as long as we're whining about my least favorite thing is everybody making their graphics. And it's like, so, so readily apparent. Do you remember the first giveaway that something was, was AI was the M dash because the M dash is actually quite useful. If you don't always want to use a comma or a semicolon, it's tragically underused. And then it became, uh, quite a bit used by any quickly knew like, Oh, there's three M dashes in this paragraph. This is the giveaway. Now, now the AI giveaway is that fucking font that you know, you know, the font, you see it with the slide. It looks like it's scribbled on there and everybody's poster. And it's like, man, you see this from like so many small businesses with their food flyers and stuff to God, just use your own. You can make an AI poster with your own photos. Take pictures of your food because that whatever it put together to make you look like your hamburger, that looks terrible. There are like carrots on that hamburger for some reason. It doesn't know what it's doing. At least we're boiling the, uh, the freshwater in our country for this. Right. Um, all right, man, a betting plan for the chiefs is I'm going to make me a betting plan for the chiefs. Make no mistakes. I'm making mistakes. I'm just, I think I'm going to end up sacking up and just downgrading them a bit on off. And it's make them write eight or 10th, which is going to tell my numbers to bet against them a bunch and just, just, just do it. Write it out. Let's rip. All right. All right. Let's go to week Broncos country. Let's ride. Yes, absolutely. I'm not even mad about my preseason future. Now I am way more worried about the chargers than the chiefs. Are you? Oh, I'm getting, I'm getting, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. If the chargers had, sorry, the chargers, if the chargers had a schedule, like the, uh, like the lions, um, that would have been one of the easiest bets in football this year, but alas, they got the schedule demons on top of all the other cursed stuff. All right guys. Yeah, I, uh, schools are going to schools are having to go back to like the blue books.