2026 Jacksonville Jaguars Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, the deep dive, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor, Andrew Dinsick, powered by Bet Spurs. Welcome to the deep dive. Jacksonville Jaguars today in Australia, um, your champions of the, yeah, see, South, they just needed to get by the mighty, mighty Titans in week 18 and, uh, did you know that the Houston Texans had never made the playoffs as a wild card before? In their history, that actually is not crazy to me. I know, I just saw that as I was going through the, you know, the, the, the playoff case at the end. I mean, they only, they'd only made it as these as the South champ. But they made it as the South champs a bunch because they were always in that Saturday, early wild card hosting slot as, uh, with the very little probability of making a run. Um, yeah, the, uh, the, I gotta say, man, do you get what the, like, do you get why the Jags are just kind of out of the mix as far as like national conversation? They finished last season on an absolute tear. They won their final eight games of the season. Some of them were non-competes. Uh, they just absolutely, you know, buried the Colts, uh, in, uh, in week 14, obviously, that's some of that was the Colts quarterback. But, um, you know, they buried the chargers, the chargers were a playoff team. Uh, they, uh, they come pellingly beat the Broncos and Broncos hadn't lost in like two months when they played, in Denver. Um, and yeah, it was like, they came down the homestretch like a fucking freight train. And when, you know, it's, it's a, it's a good quarterback. I think we all know that the talent that exists in the arm of Trevor Lawrence is real. Uh, and it was a first year coach. And it's kind of funny that like there's a world of, um, gravity around Ben Johnson and the Bears and Caleb Wilson. And what he was able to get out of Caleb Wilson down the stretch and the expectations of the Bears taking another step forward this off season into next, you know, in the offense. And the Jags are, they should be in the, the one beat of the Bears 1A and that conversation based on what we saw. Leon Cohen clearly knows what the fuck he's doing. And now he's got a whole off season to kind of shape his offense with, uh, you know, the players that really kind of blossomed. Uh, and, uh, uh, the play of Trevor Lawrence that blossomed. And yet, uh, I have, I'll let you know the first person I hear that picks the jacks to any of these up. I know it feels, it feels like there are more people that are trying to make the bold case for the Colts. Of course. The team that actually won 13 games had a decent, uh, and yeah, a real decent, yeah, Caleb drew, drew said Caleb Wilson twice. When I run the frickin transcripts, you did, I don't know why it's Caleb Williams. You know that, obviously. My, when I run that transcript, uh, clean up program after this is going to be like, I think, I think Drew said Caleb Wilson. And we're going to just change that to Williams, even though the Chicago bull, the Chicago bull. Yes, such as such as life. We've done 30 of these man. It's sorry, man. It isn't grind. Drew's off next week, though. And you'll have to listen to three ones. Speaking of, uh, content I have not enjoyed in the last 48 hours, the Caleb Williams content on the, uh, on the old Twitter machine is, uh, is a hard pass. Um, all right, the, um, the, the point stand, so Andy, what, why no bus? Like this, they, you know, this wasn't, this wasn't a, uh, a fraud, a totally fraudulent 13 and 14. Their Pythag was 12 wins. Yeah, it just, there's a finite amount of buzz Drew. Not every team can have the bus. I, okay. Uh, the coaching staff remains fully in the coaching staff remains fully intact. The quarterback didn't just get paid. Uh, he's locked in at actually a team reasonably team, reasonable team deal. Uh, there's not really any drama. Like the big drama around the Jags was, you know, there's the, the guy that they traded a bunch of capital for. He's only going to play defense, I guess this year. And then I did digging that one. It's great. It's great. Let's, let's just bust into that. What is your expectations for his split and your thoughts on it? Because right now, 95, five defense. And I think that's awesome. And I think he's going to be an elite quarterback. So the speed is in top 20, maybe top 10. So I, I was of the opinion, closer to where you're at. I was like a 90 10. That's what it sounded like going into, into this off season. It sounded like it was going to be a 90 10 defense to offense split. His snaps in practices and whatever else and, you know, that they've done, it's been more like 75 25. And I don't know if it's just, hey, we need to work on some of these offensive things because they're not core plays that we're, you know, we already know. But that would be surprising if it was closer to 75 25. I think that was a 90 10 guy. And I'm probably fine with it too. I like him a lot better as a defender. Oh, yeah. And he pits, he fits a freaking perfect hole in your roster. If you can be an elite cover corner, like, like, this defense could cook with gas. I, and I guess that's kind of where my head is at with a team evaluation as you step back. Like, if you have a good quarterback and a offensive mind that is cooking with gas, then you have a high ceiling. And there are a very finite number of teams in the NFL that have that combination that we know about. There's plenty of quarterbacks that we know kick ass with offensive coordinators that are a mystery or have some limitations. There's, but there's only a few, you know, of like kind of the perfect hand in glove. Great, great skill set elite elite skill set with an offensive mind who's who's got something special going. And I think the Jags are for that reason high enough ceiling that you can't rule them out of the superlatives in the NFL. Even if you don't love some parts of the roster build, I think this team could and should not surprise you if they're ultimately in the final final stages of competition this year. Yeah. I don't think I'm going to predict that. But I'm not. No, it's a, it's a, it's a very tough division to really take a stand on. Like, I'm fine taking a stand on a team where I'll be a little higher than the market, perhaps, but at the same time, I'm not running to go bet this like to 240 division just because I do like what the colds have. And obviously the Texans have an incredibly tough team. We'll see on the offensive line that's been a very much work in progress. We'll get to that next when we do their podcasts. We'll leave it for then. But yeah, we're going to get to that with the Jags also, obviously. Yeah, a little bit. But yeah, 13 and 4 division winner and a lot of, I mean, where does the market have them? Like, basically, Eakin, Eakin, one of the last wild card spots. Pretty much. Yeah. Is that, is that check out to you? There's only so many, there's only so many spots and here's the thing about ratings and how we feel about a team. It's relative. And sometimes a team who is expected to be this good or maybe be an 11, 12 win team again. Sometimes they are the seventh or eighth best team in the conference because there's a lot of tough teams in the conference. If two incredibly tough teams in the east. So let me, let me read these and teams in the west. Well, well, let me still the market in, you know, with the teams that have upside, there's always speculators and there's no one really on that corner for the Jags this year. And I got to ask you, is this, is this because people don't believe in loans? Do people specifically have him a tier below in terms of believing in him being a kind of, you can win more than one playoff game with this guy? Or is it a, people don't are late to the party? Because I guess here's the thing. I'm not going to entertain the idea that Liam Cohen's not the guy. Liam Cohen absolutely fucking rocks guy. He rocks and he is going to be a great head coach and a great offensive mind for as long as he feels like he's good needs to, you know, to do it in this league. And I'll change my opinion when we have a sizable amount of data that says otherwise, which is, and so is it one of these two reasons. People are either late to the party and don't get it yet with Liam Cohen or people don't believe the Trevor Lawrence can actually be consistent. winner with his arm. I mean, is it just the small sample and Cohen, although, man, I loved him in Tampa. I was a Cohen guy there, and I liked, you know, what he did with Baker, but maybe a little untrever. I don't have a good answer for this, true. This is this is a tough one. I think maybe there's the, we've never seen Trevor really perform to a super high level, multiple times in a playoff run. And some of that is just those teams around him weren't good enough for him to be doing that sort of thing. Anyway, it's been a lot of coaches, a lot of coordinators. He's gone through a plethora of people that were, you know, either coordinating the offense or running the team. It's been kind of a tough go for him for, you know, one of these guys that was just kind of expected to be the guy coming out of college. I don't know, maybe maybe there's some of that where we just haven't seen the Jaguars do one of the, you know, even to the point of the bills, I get it, the bills don't make the Super Bowl and they've lost multiple times in the title game, but there's been, hey, they deserve to win that game. Or this is one of the two best teams in the UFC. We've never really put the Jags in that stratosphere even last year. It was like, geez, the, you know, Denver got the one seed, New England's just trucking people, the bills exist, you know, the Texans are in the playoffs. They probably win a playoff game just because they're playing the Steelers and they did, you know, even last year into the playoffs. I mean, we bet on them. We bet on the Jags, both of us, to win that game they probably should have. That was, you know, unfortunate turnover here or there, but you know, I don't think we're planning on them betting on them the week after unless the number was a begrigiously big, certainly not to win in advance. So yeah, they're just kind of in that second tier for people, maybe even for us. Honestly, were you making the taste for them to win the UFC when the playoffs started? Uh, yes, I was. I definitely was. I definitely remember that. I definitely was. Um, because it was, I liked their number. I thought they should have been small favorites to start the playoffs, but everybody was a, why can't us in the UFC last year, but the Jags were at the top of my, why can't they list? Um, the Jags right now, Andy are the ninth choice in the AFC. Ninth, that seems a little low. They currently have half the probability of the Broncos, the cheese, the chargers and the Texans. I don't know. Offensive coach quarterback. Better than all of those. I'm higher than the market. I mean, I'll tell you, even being where I'm at, I get what you're saying, like, I haven't been thinking about them the way I think about the Broncos. This is a fun team again that I'm believing in that. Yeah. You know, I'm above the market, but I think the market's probably just a little wrong here. Okay. Um, the Bengals have a shorter price. The Patriots have a shorter price. This is, uh, this is really something. Um, in the pantheon of the AFC, the, the Jags are only ahead of the Colts, the Steelers and the teams that are not competing. Yeah. That's, that's crazy. Um, I don't know. This, this, there's, this is either, uh, everybody's everybody's right that Trevor Lawrence is not to be trusted or everybody is late that Liam Cohen is going to find a way to make this absolutely sing whichever again for a full season. And people are going to be sad that they don't have 15 to one AFC in bucket because it's a big number, man. There's a big number, not going to be tough for these guys to get the one seed in the AFC. Really? They just need some breaks on the offensive line. Honestly, that's kind of the only issue I have with the team right now. Maybe it's just such a small, it's, it's like the smallest market in the, you know, I made a throwing out green Bay, I guess, but that doesn't count because it's just, you know, I don't know if there's just not a lot of buzzer on the team from the fans even. It's not going to be Chicago every year where there's just too many asshole bear fans that think they're going to win everything every year. And now they're good, which so those guys, the assholes are vindicated, but man, bears fans are every year in the AFC season. Some of the, some of the loudest people, maybe they're just starting off people in DeVolk County. Okay. Yeah, one of the notes I had and kind of why I'm leaning forward on this team too is from week 13 onward. And I know we like to use EPA and some of the other stuff, but if you just look at some of the gradings, like the PFF grades, he was, he was the highest graded passer from week 13 onward when they did go kind of nuclear for a while against, you know, it wasn't always the best teams, but his full season had him grading wise as like a top eight quarterback. Yeah, maybe, maybe this is the thing. We don't follow enough British people. Maybe the London, maybe the Londoners are had a good call, Donaldson. Here's the funny thing when I know for Andy, Trevor Lawrence right now. Do you know what his cap hit is this year? 28 K 24, 24 million. Great guess. I figured you were going to go much higher than that. He is a 24 million dollar head cap hit. Here's a couple of players who hit the number a little bit higher than Trevor Lawrence this year. How much is too accosting for the top? Oh, yeah. Well, that's, that's a funny one. But I was going to name some non quarterbacks like Paulson Adibo has a higher cap hit this year than Trevor Lawrence. Robert Hunt, the guard from Carolina, if you didn't know just by naming Robert Hunt as a higher cap hit, Jesse bates the third hitting, tapping in the safety for Atlanta, higher cap hit. This, this list of guys is Dan Moore, the left tackle from Tennessee. Maybe the maybe the 28th best left tackle in football, higher cap hit than Trevor Lawrence. I guess where I'm getting out of this, just like, they have, they have, they're in a really good situation to like keep being super competitive and not only that, but when, when you have a, they got to figure out the situation. Yeah. When you have a good cap situation, you are, it's easier to make a mid season acquisition. Of course. If you need to, yeah, want to think you're going to go for it. Are we going for it? We're going for it. And, but that said, there is maybe one black mark. Does, does James Gladstone know what he's doing? He's very young. Let's transition to the off season. Yeah. With that in mind. What is your, what was your, you know, like favorite free agency ad because they were a lot of it was just that. But that's, I guess, what is the biggest name that got gotten free agency through? There's that. That's a good question. Ruke O'Horahoe, that was a trade. That was a trade. Oh, it was. That wasn't a, doesn't count. And he's not like a starter. Like he's, you know, he's depth behind the Arnstead and Devon Hamilton. I don't have a man. I'm going to go with Chris Rodder. He has junior. What do you place 15 snaps last year? Yeah, he is, you know, he's RV 2. Then live tripe, I'm too. Yeah, they basically did nothing. I mean, he's, he's going to get, he's going to get a bunch of carries. It's going to be a split between him and Bashal. But yeah, between that and the other free agency ads, a lot of them were like, hey, we signed this guy in July because we needed corner depth in camp like Corey Valentine with Dane Jackson retired. They had to add a corner, like basically a month ago. They traded for Daniel Filile, which was a weird one because the giant signed him from the Ravens with Harvall coming over and then I mean, traded him to the Jags, which was a weird sequence of those with Patrick McCarrie, Melon, and Dogoo hurts. And they had another backup retire. They ended up making that trade. I think it was a sixth round pick next year. This was like a week ago too. So that actually a terrible trade. I guess you need some help there in the interior offensive line, especially at the depth side. And then, yeah, you mentioned the Rukahororo trade, Mason Smith, defensive tackle, player for player Swap. As mentioned he's in the depth part of things. A mirror of Dula was acquired. I'm not even sure if he's still on the roster, it will be at the end of the week. He's like running back four a man. Yeah, a lot of depth at that sign. I mentioned Dane Jackson was a free agency pick up that retired, like a month and a half later. Most of it was departures as we mentioned. the running back room Travis ETN is now a saint. He was here to lead back. Now you have Tutan and Rodriguez, Totten the Rock, Devon Lloyd, Linebacker to Carolina, Pro Bowl Linebacker. He was to just let him walk, probably gonna get a comp pick because of. How much Carolina can, how much Carolina actually got him for a song. I don't understand why they didn't retain him. It's so decent. Yeah, three mill, three years, 45 million, 25 guarantee to look like. So he is stepping aside and you're gonna have to put in O'Conn and Ventral Miller on the weak side, but Devon Lloyd-Gone, Mason Smith, I already mentioned the defensive tackle as part of the Aurora Swap. And then Greg Newsom, the second, I think he was traded for last year. So kind of a bit of a rental. He was part of the Tyson Campbell deal last year. He is now a giant, gone after one season. They chose to pay Monteric Brown instead. Johnny Monk was released to Patrick, was released, veteran receiver depth. He's a jet. A lot of the other stuff was just depth. Deami Brown is a Washington commander at this point. Duane Smooth, Tamanuel Oadbad, Austin Johnson, some defensive lineman that were just expiring contracts. So not a ton of movement on this roster. You know, it was a good roster. Draft class was another one where we didn't have a first round pick because they moved up to get Travis Hunter, which is looking worse now. I love Travis Hunter, but. Yeah, that. I mean, if he's a top 20 quarterback for you this year and a top 10 cornerback for you next year, then I don't really care. Those guys are hard to come by. Yeah, and it was like the 24th pick. You know, it turned out to be, you know, not a super high pick, they ended up losing. Cleveland ended up drafting KC Concepcion with that pick. So something to keep an eye on if he turns out to be a mega stud and Hunter doesn't then people can bring that up like it matters because. I guess we can't change it. With the wisdom that you have gleaned now with two years on the job as James Gladstone. What do you do? Do you stick and pick at five and who do you take? Tadaro, Macmillan? I think so. Okay. I mean, Travis Hunter is a very talent. What do you do? You have an embarrassment of riches at watch Seever, I feel like. Yeah, but you're probably not making the Jacobi Myers move then. I guess, yeah. Either way, first pick that they did make was the 56th, where they took Nate Borkercher from Texas A&M, the first of two tight ends that they would pick. See more of a blocker or receiver. He is. You know, they got rid of Johnny Month. He's kind of competing for second snows to be tied into with the the other guy who was drafted in the 5th round Tanner Kosoil. Kosoil from Houston. I think they're both kind of just. What do you call it when they can do both things? They're expected to be all well-rounded tight ends. That's why they drafted both of them. But yeah, he'll get some reps when you're playing when you're playing 12th personnel because somebody's got to step in. I don't actually have info on who's winning that T-N-2. T-E-2 battle right now on camp. Maybe a Jags fan can give me their opinion on which of the two rookies is better. Albert Regis in the 3rd round, he's going to be the second-nose tackle behind Lahn Hamilton depth. In the 3rd round, they did draft a guard that is turning him to a immediately important pick because Emmanuel Pregnol, I'm going to say a Frenchy style, is playing. He's getting first-team guard reps because everybody else who is a guard and that named Ezra Cleveland is injured or retired with McCarrie Miller, Madoga, Colon. So he is quickly thrust into things and then they actually had a lot of picks. They took safety gel and husky from Arland in the 3rd round as well. He's going to be depth behind Murray and Johnson. As I mentioned, they lost Andrew Wingard. That was something you need his backfill. Edge Wesley Williams, another depth piece. You know, we said we lost to Wayne Smoot-Node-Bah. You needed some more pieces there. The 2nd tight-end Tanner Cazoyle in the 5th round and then another wide receiver. They took two wide receivers in the 6th round. Josh Cameron from Bayer Baylor, probably a special teamer at this point and then CJ Williams, which I guess if you're not going to play Travis Hunters much on offense, you're going to need some more depth there and then an edge and linebacker in the 7th round and Zach Derfee from Washington and linebacker depth Parker Hughes from Middleton to see 10 picks without a first-rounder. Part of my commentary on how Barrie Smith of Riches at the wide receiver positions, it sounds like both Josh Cameron and CJ Williams can play. Yeah, and Parker Washington is not a bad slosh player. Well, Parker Washington is freaking awesome. We like, and obviously we like Brian Thomas Jr. a lot. Brian James Brings brings a lot to the table. It's like there's nobody that's like, oh my god, you have Jar Chase or you have Justin Jefferson, you have CD Lamb, but everybody is like, good. And then if you get quite a bit out of these rookies as like wide receiver four stepping in, maybe you don't need offensive reps from Hunter. And that's a nice problem to have. Of course, that's a great problem to have. I think that's the plan. Break that off season, Drew. C minus cozy. Oh, I got to figure out to say this tight ends. Let's take it. K O Z I O L. Co's I O I didn't I gave it a C minus because I feel like they overpaid a little for Trayvon Walker, but you need them. I think they overpaid a little for Monterey Brown, but reupping your own guys is cool with me. They got Anton Harrison locked in for a fifth year on his rookie contract. So it's pretty good pay for your left tackle, even if he's one of the not one of the strongest. I wish they had kept Evan Lloyd really. I don't know why that was deemed a casualty for your squad. And yeah, I felt like a draft one off for them considering where they were picking what they asked us to have. I think they got some players. But yeah, I mean, it was, you know, not being able to retain Lloyd was maybe my only criticism at the end. Letting out to walk away, I think is not really. It doesn't really change my opinion of them. Yeah. And I mean, I guess you did you did you picked up Garda last year at the linebacker spot, too. And he's somebody I don't hate. So maybe, maybe his play last year played in a little bit to the the Devon Lloyd release. He felt like you had Garda, you had Olicon. And you're going to draft some depth there. I don't know. He did get paid. And I think that was the expectation was we don't want to have to pay him because we can't pay everyone, but I think you're right on Carolina. You got a pretty decent deal. Okay. Yeah. I don't know. Shipley, Shipley confuses me. I mean, I Shipley, I'm he's the beat guy. Gladstone James Gladstone confuses me. The, I mean, there's no like clear, obvious holes on the roster outside of this mentioned the guards and that's mostly an injury thing. Yeah, let's talk about let's move over to ratings because we've got to spend a little time on what's the right number for Trevor. Yeah, I went with the seven. Well, before we do, oh, yeah, we should talk about a millionaire seven or eight. We've not decided which here it is. I have to look at my hat from last year. I know. I wore my hat survivor. We each took one because we put our headblock together. I have the black survivor hat, and I wear it for running, and I wear it every week. Oh, man, you can't wear a black hat running. You get the salt stains on it. I like that, girls. No, I like that. Krusty. Either way, yes, thank you to Circa Sports and Circa Sports Contest. It is million eight. Million eight, all right. I thought so. Million eight, the Circa survivor and the Circa Grandissimo for some of you really wants to get a taste. We will be out there tomorrow, signing up for several entries, and we will be winning. Hopefully, that's always the goal. If you have any questions about how to enter, it has to be in Nevada, or how to get a proxy, you should use the guys over at footballcontest.com. They don't even pay us, that's just, we like them because we've always used them and they do a good job. They have never let us down. They'll catch you a bit of a deal if you get a bunch of entries. They give you a bulk rate if you end up signing with a bunch of entries. If you have any questions on any of that, DMS, we can help you. You have two wouldn't have weeks yet for you to get entered. You can sign up all the way up until September 12th. You can sign up in Reno. You can sign up most likely. You can sign up down certain sports if you're down there this weekend. Find us. We will be just wandering around the sports book. We'll probably be at the overhang bar overhang bar. If it's daytime. If it is past 10 30 ish, we'll probably at the Lacey Club. We'll see all our lives going and we might be playing a little dice. Check it out. If you have any stuff, any worries or issues, if you just are new to this, trying to figure out how to do it and make it a little nervous, hit a sample, walk you through it. It's not too bad. Absolutely. 7.0 for you for Jax. Yeah, it's hard because I love going. I love Liam Cohen. I like a lot what Trevor did, especially at the end of the year, but at the same time, it's not a big sample on Cohen. I like some of his plays. Excuse me, his game plans. I took advantage of some of the bad teams. I think they're a really good team against bad teams. There's some of these teams that we worry about. How many times have been like, "Man, KC's playing a mediocre team?" These are the spots where they get weird and they don't cover. They make it closer and it has to be a Baltimore Christ for the last five years, where they lose just an embarrassing game in the first five games every week. I did like how he seems to not take the cupcakes too lightly. Obviously, very successful first year, 13 wins. Noted Cohen guy from this podcast. You shouldn't surprise you. I'm high. I'm at 7.8. If this was not Liam Cohen and it was generic play collar, I'd probably be more like five and a half six-ish for Trevor as it's just as raw skill and consistency that we've seen from him as a pro. But I'm what have you done for me lately? Upweight, recency type of handicapper. Over the second half of the season last year and the sample we mentioned off the top, Trevor Lawrence's efficiency was just out of this world. He was being out, Matt's effort in terms of performance. I think in general, another year in this system, I'm excited to see how year two looks with again. Because Cohen is obviously sharp and I think he will have some force multiplier wrinkles in his system this year that I'm excited to see. This was an easy one to come in high. I thought I was coming in a little high. It was a surprise. I think our offensive numbers are going to be similar because I'm at a 5.1 year. I'm going to 3.9. I cannot believe this with what you've said about the wide receiver room. Are you that low on tootin and strange? Strange tootin? I don't like stranger or tootin and I guess when I made this number, I hadn't really absorbed the idea that some of the depth in the receiver room might be good. I'm also worried about Brian Thomas Jr. Frankly, the ceiling is high. The floor is low for him and I am nervous that he's a bit fragile. I'm nervous. He was playing through an injury for a lot of last year, which is why he couldn't catch anything. I'm nervous that he doesn't really want to run over the middle. He's a really tough one for me to grade. Parker Washington, I have a higher number on in terms of his expected contributions this week. Strange is my TE-21 and tootin is my RB-23. That's why I'm at 3.9. I'm a little higher on tootin, but yeah, if I just had to grade out the wide receiver room and I give Hunter a tiny smidge of that as well, my wide receiver room is like a 7.4. It is strange and not only the running backs, but the tight ends, we don't know. We have a day two and a day three tight end as your backup. The depth is not only very new but very unknown at this time how good they're going to be, how much they can contribute. I'm a little higher on tootin. I know the fantasy committee loves these guys. He's always been, well, why don't we get him more carries? But if you look, his rushing success rate was pretty high. I think I split it by maybe guys who got at least 100 carries. He was fifth. It was kind of a weird combo because his mistackle rate was nice. He was getting whole home numbers and yards after contact, but also it wasn't a full sample of the guy. We don't know how he's going to perform as the lead lead back at this point. Him and him and just generally the running back room drags it down a little bit. I'm going to 5.1. 5.1 here. Offensive line, weakest number on the board for you. I'm going to 5.1 here too and I don't fully know if I need to dig in a little this to some of the, I have to have the card stuff in here. Happened forever ago. I mean, so I have Anton Harrison. I have put the rookie at left guard. I've Haines East Center. I've Cleveland and then Walker little and I have him. It's just fine. And truthfully, I'd like Filale to say backup. He's a, he's a maller. I'm guessing you're lowering it. Yeah, I'm at a 4.2. I'm actually scrambling because I thought this was my lowest number, but it's higher than the skill position group and I must have absolutely fat fingered past rush because 2.8 is all right. So we'll get there in a second. But I met a 4.2 for a line. Here's how I got there. I have a okay grade on Haines. I like Cleveland. I like the Harrison and Walker little. I worry about depth because I have a pretty low number on cold man land. And if you have to ultimately use him as either of your tackles, which you know worth watching because these guys are all kind of on the question mark in terms of health from what I've heard. They had land and opened camp on pop. Yeah, and knee injury in January. Yeah. McCarrie wasn't great, but his backup I have rated worse. And yeah, it's not, it's like a little bit below average unit for me. And I'm prepared to be wrong. But I just, I think I'm just, I'm a little colored by, there's just bad vibes around them. This camp for some reason. Yeah, they're having a Chargers camp when it comes to guards at least. And that's that's that's how to comp you want. So I'm about average here. They got clocked pretty good against the bucks defensive front, but that front actually I think is probably pretty good. Yeah, okay. Monitoring that number. I might be low. So what's your overall, what's your overall offense? Yeah, and just just and real quick, a lot of it is just Harrison grades pretty well Cleveland grades well enough. Van Lannan is a weird one because the he graded pretty well, but yeah, it's injured and not playing at this point. You got little stepping in who's worse. Every kind of every category. Yeah, it comes to comparing him to Van Lannan and then Hansey, not a good pass block grade in the middle. Good run blocker. And then wild card at guard with a rookie zero NFL snaps starting on, you know, it's an unknowable question. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and then you have Phalele who he got plenty of snaps last year. He was a decent, I think he was a decent pass blocker, but I think his run grade was a little lower for me, but again, he is a backup. So offense is what's here? What's your offensive number? 59th percentile. So 13th best in the NFL. I have the wrong chrome yet. Do you have multiple chrome profiles? Yes, I do. I have the, and you know how in here, when you're in the right one and you have a Google sheet, you use over and over, you can just start typing it, it'll pop up. It was not popping up for me, it was driving me up a wall because I'm on the wrong chrome profile. Because I like my old Gmail, but I have a work Gmail as well. I use my main one all the time, but then there is one site that I use on my other one. And if I leave that window open and close my other window, I go over very, very angry. Yeah. I'll pull it up, but it's got to be, you know, like a 60th percent health for me. Okay. Um, Jags run stop. Where are you? Stop. For me is a 4.8, um, 10, that was Eric Armstead inside. If nothing else, the veterans, Rook helps us. Devon Lloyd is a big loss here, um, uh, truthfully for some of these numbers. So just slightly below average for me. Okay. Uh, on that, uh, a little bit above average, I'm at 5.2, uh, past rush. Where are you at? Higher than 2.8, um, 4.3, like Trayvon Walker and Josh Heinz Allen as your, like their names, those are names, but, uh, the, the performance, the, the results haven't matched up with the, I know, the draft position for one of the guys, I would see and, and the results, you lost smoke, you lost dog, uh, you see, you lost a little depth at that point. Dennis Gardek, I, I like he's more of a rotational rusher. So a little below average here as well. Okay. Um, I'm going to probably update mine to 4.8. I don't understand how I got to 2.8 here. Um, you know, the last time you screwed up a number, it was the same number as the team right above it. I think you just drug it somehow by adding it. It could have been, yeah. Huh. Well, whatever the case is, uh, I think Josh Heinz Allen is a good player. Um, I, uh, I like Eric Armstead for interior pressure purposes. I'm not expecting anything out of Devon Hamilton and Trayvon Walker for me is a tough hand. He's a tough hand. Um, never really feel he's like, it's just a little bit above average a past rush run D and coverage. Like, yeah, good. I always want him to succeed. I think we have a very biased soft spot for him because of the draft. I think that's true. Like we'll always love Trayvon Walker because we had info on him going first before the market did and we were able to bet a lot of money on it. And I have a soft spot because of that. He's not that good. He's not nearly as good as he was supposed to be to be drafted that high. And I think I'm a little tilted by that. So yeah, I met a, what did I say, a, uh, 4.3 here coverage, six flats. I am way high here. I am at a 6, 8, um, defendant. Okay. An actual embarrassment of riches in the coverage now with, um, Hunter Hunter, uh, Jordan Lewis and, uh, Jerry and Jones, who's not even a starter right now, both graded out awesome for me. Monteric Brown, I thought did a great job. You have good safety coverage. And you got really solid linebacker coverage out of a little con last year. Um, low worried about missing Devon Lloyd, but who cares? Uh, yeah. If you get another corner back in this room and Hunter who's able to kind of equal or improve on the play that you got from Lewis and Brown and Jones, then all of a sudden, you have four guys you can play. You can play some serious nickel and quarters and nickel dined quarters and, uh, make things really tough for the good passing offenses in the NFL. Um, I mean, I'm, I'm very, very intrigued about the upside of this coverage unit under Anthony Campanille. Yeah. I have it as like the 11th best coverage unit. It's good. Um, not quite as high. It's definitely some of the parts like everybody is above average and we'll see, you know, we had, we didn't, we didn't get a full grade on Hunter yet. Um, but if he, you know, if he takes to this, like we saw him in a bit of a ballhawk able to catch up when he's beat a little, he's, he's a very good corner, but we didn't see it in the NFL for the most part yet. A lot of it was at, you know, a little different with Colorado schedule. So if he, if he performs well, this'll come up quickly for me. Yep. Agreed. Um, all right, man. Uh, final defensive number for you. What do you got? Oh, my gags number is, what were you guys? I'm at 0.56 with this is 15 to best once I fixed my past rush. I'm at, I'm at a five flat. Okay. Okay. So 60th off end, I did open the sheet. It was 60 exactly, which is funny. That's great. 60th offense, 50th defense. Um, so we're both middling on coaching. I think that's more of a just one year sample didn't look like amazing, but it wasn't like atrocious for Liam Cohen in terms of his go for rate and some of his adjustments that he made in game. Uh, I was more impressed with the adjustments made in season than I was in game. And that's kind of built into my OC number. So I'm not going to double count. Uh, special teams are both very, very high. I think, uh, if we had to do a draft of, uh, kickers that are going to break the record this year, we will take Ken Rittle first, right? Yeah. It's little Aubrey and then whoever's kicking in Denver that week and the Denver kicker just because it's Denver. I'm high on special teams, although I do wonder and maybe somebody can set me straight in this. Are they seriously just going to have to return kicks all year? No, I don't love, I don't love your RB one return. No, no, no, no, no, no. Some places, some places list them there. No, they have Parker Washington returning points, which probably is, uh, that probably is fine. Well, what is going to happen? But it'll be interesting to see your returns kicks for the most part. Yep. Um, all right. So in totality, there, of course, is a correction for me on past rush, which changes my number a little bit, but you're at a 58 percentile, which is a plus 2.4. Uh, I am now at a 58 percentile, which for me is a 1.5, 7.6. Good for 13th best in the NFL. And, uh, Andy, the market is at a 0.77. So with my corrected number on the head of market, you're even more ahead of market. So why haven't we bet these guys? Because I like the Colton Texans too. I like 'em all. It's Sophie's choice here. A lot of good teams in this division. And as is becoming the norm, we get the, uh, Texas two-step except London, not Texas. Two international games, which is tough for Houston. This is the expected division winner. This is, uh, one of the toughest games you'll have in division. And you get a huge rest advantage because you're on your second straight week. They're in, um, London, which is solid. Solid, but at the same time, you're playing two division favorites on your European trip. Uh, feels like a lot of these European or even the international games. It's not often too high-end teams to get a lot of, "Hey, Miami's playing Washington this week." We get, there's a lot of similarities between the Denver and the Jags schedule and the early going here. Like you're just playing a good team every week after your Cleveland opener. Denver, New England, Sancy, Philly, Houston. Like these are all people have penciled in as playoff teams with a higher likelihood of getting there than you. Yep. And then later in the season, more Houston, more Baltimore, more, more Houston, Baltimore, you have Dallas, Chicago on the road, late in the season, December, in Chicago for a Florida team, even the Monday night game against Pittsburgh. All right, who's the thing? You're, you're a first place team. I'm not running away from Jags beating Cleveland in week one. I think that's probably happens. Denver is an interesting one. You're at Denver. You matched up extremely well against that last year, obviously, in the regular season matchup, and you know, potentially could find a way to get a win there. New England is a tough matchup for you, obviously, although your strength and coverage against their strength, the wide receivers neutralizes their advantage offensively, that should be a very competitive game. Cincinnati, Jacksonville's going to have a total in the 50s. That's going to be a coin flip. Philadelphia, that's going to have a total in the 30s, probably, right? And that's going to be a, you know, a war Houston's going to be a war total in the low 40s, high 30s. So, what are the games in this stretch where you're like, I think that Jags are the side that day? Probably, Sinsi. If it's wishful to get to a three there, you know, a coverage unit that can maybe shut down what they're doing, and then you can score since Maddie. So I kind of like that spot, the Denver one is a tough ask with the the past rush. The Denver and Houston past rushes, if that offensive line isn't jelling and those guards are becoming issue or obviously both tackle that one tackle, we kind of worry about a little concerning there. I guess you have New England at all. I'd be, I'd be most likely to bet on them in the Cincinnati game and then possibly the Houston game just because of the advantage they have there. Yeah, the rest advantage, yeah, no question. I mean, it's a home game for them and they're not getting home, feel pricing, yeah. I think I agree with you on the Cincinnati, but not as much. I'm, I guess I'm, with the current state of the offensive line, I'm kind of worried about interior past rush affecting Trevor and Dexter Lawrence scares me. It's Cincinnati. Jalen Carter scares me with Philly Houston, just in general, what their swarm is spooky. New England doesn't have really interior pressure that really, really scares me. I mean, well, no Williams is a good player, but I don't know that he's a true difference maker. Denver doesn't really have a ton of interior pressure. Who's there guys? Zach Allen? Who can get interior pressure? Yeah, I guess I guess I'm just a, I'm, I think the thing to watch really is how do they handle those first three weeks in terms of pressure on the interior before they go into those next three weeks where they have some seriously tough matchups there because if the Jags are not scoring into the high 20s, then there is going to be tough wins for them tough, tough to find wins for them there. I think they're going to concede kind of in the 23 to 27 range for a lot of these games. So they're up against good quarterbacks even though they have great coverage. I'm not, yeah, I'm not like excited is a team we like we're above market on them and there's not a lot of spots where I'm like, I really, I really, I want to go to war with this team, you know, it'll obviously depend on what other teams become and, you know, as, as the season goes on, but yeah, I'm not seeing a ton of spots where I'm championing at the bit here. Curtis Liam Cohen have an advantage as a coordinator against this counterpart. Just wreck those, wreck those for me. Rootinger. Lee Cleveland. Yeah. I mean, just because of the, maybe the roster, it's still a good defense, but. Vance question mark. Vance? No. Nutrile it best. You got it, he got him convincingly last year, scored 34 points on that in those monsters, supposedly. The supposed monsters, okay. Yeah, revenge game. That's a Vance revenge game. England, I suppose. He's got an advantage. Yeah, since natty's got an advantage, Fangeo, you want to call the draw? Yeah, let's call it a draw or advantage, Fangeo. At Fangeo, Houston, I'd say no. No. Maybe not, are we strictly going DC or are we going DC plus the team? I think where we're at really is this is probably looking like somehow, some way at three and through start. Be nice. And then you find seven more wins, eight more wins along the way. You got to win those Quinn flips on the road. Dallas and Chicago are kind of must wins in the late-must win. That last game is going to make up either nine or ten probably for that. Three of your last four games are on the road. But you don't, I've said in Chicago game, being a Florida team, you don't have any nasty ones outside of that. Houston Dallas in the all indoors, endorses for Dallas, but close enough depends where the sun is that day. Well, all right, man. So right, as we stand here now, the Jags, the Jags are a monitor, not a bet. Don't love the rest of this advantage is through the easy part of your schedule. You don't really get to put people in the heart locker in Florida early in the season other than potentially New England, actually, Cleveland in New England are both going to be struggling in the heat. To play outdoors in the cold very often other than a Chicago game. A lot of travel for you. It's the giant scheme, maybe a little bit, but that's still not quite December yet. And for the record, the Eagles game is in Tottenham. The Houston game is in Wembley, both are London games. It's not like the Minnesota schedule where they did England and Ireland. This is a same city, at least, but two different stadiums. So what's the plan here? If they go two and four, but we still like to see South Odds locked goddamn it. They're about two and three plus two, 50. I don't think that's a big enough entry to, I mean, it's already a shitty offensive line. It went from like 30 at the 31st or what are we doing? I don't know. Either way, if they start like two and four, we still like how they look. I was hoping to get some clarity out of talking through Colts and Jags with an actual plan. I have no plan because I know all like because all I know is that I'm a little higher than market on Colts. I'm a little higher than market on Jags. I'm lower than market on Texans, but it doesn't seem like there's an easy and obvious way to take advantage of this. It's not, it's not always the case. Is the South leader going to have 10 wins and finish and four seed? Decent shaft, I think they all have tough schedules, man, and if the Colts are good, if the Colts are good, that makes it even flatter. It makes it flatter, yep. 10, 10, 10. It goes 11, 10, 9 based on one coin flip and we can't call it. So this is a walk away. It's just a whole division. I washed my hands of it. Duval. Let's call it a day and let's go do a Houston Decks in Spada. I was hoping that I was going to come out of this with like a real strong opinion one way or the other, but I'm not there. If they covered you in it really over for forums, we're just going to eat spots where it's like this is a team they're going to shut down their offense a little. 15 to 1 to win the AFC man, like 33 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, but those are big numbers for good offense. What's Denver right now for AFC? 7, 50. I got exactly, exactly half. We got like 11.