2026 Green Bay Packers Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Dive featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz Burns. Welcome to The Deep Dive. Andy we are on team three of the NFC North and that is the Green Bay Packers and they have a pretty distinct feel this year. They feel to me like the forgotten perennial contender in the NFC. I don't think I've heard a full throw to the case made for the Packers being realistic contenders for a super bowl appearance this year and that's kind of crazy because I've like what middle of the season last year at 5-1-1. This was the top-power rated team by a lot of people who were making numbers and it seemed like love had taken a step forward was absolutely cooking in La Flore scheme. The defense had micro Parsons and was just terrorizing quarterbacks and yeah they had some sputters then it all came unraveled. It did come and it came right. And now like now this team is like truthfully buzzless is that fair? Yeah I mean you're right to point out last season a big part of what I forget is like what happened last season in the middle of the year. Like I could tell you what happened at the end of the year. They were up 21 to 3 and a half times on the bears. I let go. Yeah there was a point where it's like hey this is this might be the top seed in the NFC and then they slide and it's crazy if you look at the standings for the NFC North. They were 9-7-1 and that was second and like the Vikings were what 9-8 I think maybe I'm gonna have to check that. It was incredibly tight from top to bottom and they were what were they the 7-C? Wines were 98 too right? Yeah yeah there was a tiebreaker for Minnesota and to try to get that 4-Place schedule which is 40-40 tie locked them in as the 7-C wild card and the 2-7 matchup was Chicago Green Day which was one of my favorite playoff games of the year. I think part of it was because we were in at circuit. We were in recliners in the middle of the circle. And then they used part of it. And there were so many fans from both sides and the the ebbs and the flows of their moods was very hard to find considering how that game went. But yeah the Denver game, Michael Parsons, ACL, week 15, a late one and that's going to be a big theme on how we're going to try to put these power ratings together today for the Packers because it's not alike a lot of these injuries we're going to talk about where I might miss a little camp. This is where he's trying to work his way back six weeks man. It's the first six weeks have probably gone for this guy for this season. It's a big injury and he's a big part of that defense. And I think overall kind of the two long didn't read my take on the Packers is Jesus I love so many players on this team. But they are incredibly thin. And that's what happens when you have a good quarterback that you're finally going to have to start paying and you go get yourself a high-end free agent. I didn't fact check this but someone said the Packers hadn't had a draft without a first round pick in 40 years. That seems almost too long to be true. So I'm going to triple check that but they didn't have a first round pick because of the trade and yeah the roster breakdown and me looking at beyond week one into the into the season. And that's something I was talking to Noonan about today. I said you know I've really had to separate this is my power rating for week one. It's based on the 22 players plus special teams and why not that are playing and a few of the rotationists who is taking the snap shares day one. And then I have to do a whole different calculation for you know season long stuff. And when you go day one it's like it's a pretty good team but if you look at some of the season long stuff it's like Jesus they they're going to need to figure some stuff out and a few fewer of these groups because it is a little thin on the back end. Overall yeah I think you're right as far as the the hype they haven't been a hype team. And I guess I don't really have a good reason why. I don't know maybe it's just because we have the hype of the Ben Johnson already in the division. We have Detroit as you know the perennial team with the good roster and the fun coach and they're bringing back most of their talent. And then you have Calamari through a 60 yard bomb for a touchdown and in training camp today that clips all over my feed Jesus guys calm down. So I don't know it. I'm fine now. I haven't seen it. It was it was good. I mean it's it's training camp. I think it was more indicative of the the safeties for Minnesota like they got burnt by a badison but such his life so. I'm sorry. I might take away from last season is just the injury. The injuries were a lot because it wasn't just the micaparcin's thing. It was a treat. Even Jordan Love wasn't very healthy at the end of year. He missed the Baltimore game and he got knocked out of that Chicago game. Cost him their backup. Um, Jayden Reed collarbone. He only played seven games. He had the foot entry as well. Tucker Kraft early mid season knee entry. Let's highlight that one. Let's say good deep breath. Well, let me get through. Yeah. I got out to Jenkins. Season ending lower leg injury. Devonte Wyatt who's important. Sure. Save, save Jan Williams who was starting to get integrated into the offense. Nate Hobbs was the sky. You wouldn't got to fix part of the problem in the secondary and he he had knee trouble. He only played 11 games. They started 10 different offensive linemen. And outside of everything else micaparcin's aside, they didn't have great injury luck and still made the playoffs. Like we should be viewing this as a high end team if everything breaks right. Hmm. Okay. Um, Quick internet search, by the way, says Packers did not make a first round pick in 2017, 2008. 1986 and 1975. So 86 is 40 years ago. So that that checks. So maybe they traded their first round pick. Maybe it was they didn't have their own pick going into the draft or something. Oh, maybe. Like, like, as they traded their first round pick to the jets for future, you know, for future stuff in 2008 and they did the same thing in 2017 with the Browns. So I could have just been that. But, um, yeah. Yeah. Um, I think the reason there's no buzz on the Packers team is because they, they, like statistically, when you look at it, they kind of like 97 and one is not on paper. It does not look like a wild underachievement in record. Um, it feels like it to me. Like, this feels like this should have been like an 11 and six at worst, maybe 12 and five kind of a team with how good they were when they were good, you know. Um, but, you know, the Pythag says they should have been about a nine and a half win team. They were not in half win team. Uh, when you look at the roster this year and you compare it to the roster when it was fully healthy last year, it looks worse. So like I kind of understand why people would sort of take those two pieces of information and be like, well, thank God, worse. And they were kind of what we, they kind of are what they referenced. They were last year then good luck. Yeah, maybe they're a playoff bubble team this year. Maybe they're solved. Maybe, maybe we know exactly who they are. There's not like some sort of high upside ceiling. Um, as far as kind of putting them in buckets, I still think you put the Packers in the bucket of like high upside, high ceiling because of the potential for Jordan love and, and, uh, MATLA floor to continue to, um, you know, to grow. The leaps that Jordan love took last year, uh, to me was, uh, like, it wasn't fueled by bullshit. It was like just really, really solid quarterback play, right? Like they weren't leaning into weak scheduled. They weren't leaning into high volume. It wasn't because he had superlative protection. It wasn't because he had, you know, game changer, wide receiver one type of weapons who could get open at a, you know, on, on demand and had winning, winning at the point of, you know, point of the catch over and over again, with maybe one exception. And that that was that MATLA floor's offense did utilize Tucker craft as an absolute no doubt easy button. Like, and, and not just an easy button, but like an explosive easy button, which is pretty cool. Like if you have bad in your arsenal and you have, you know, a guy like crafts who can get lost with a little bit of wiggle and a little bit of a early blocking assignment. And then he's just lumbering down the field with, you know, no, you know, like, you know, an off ball linebacker like scrambling to find him and get anything within 10 yards of him. And he makes a perfect catch and turns it into a 40 yard game. That's a, you know, that's a nice club in your bag, right? And when Kraft got hurt, it did feel like there came out of the offense a little bit. It also felt like Josh Jacobs, 2024 campaign was probably his apex mountain, whatever the fuck that means. And now it's kind of, you know, in 2025, he was a little bit less of a fastball. And, you know, but they used him, Russ. And, you know, in 2026 is a big question mark for him because he's obviously going to be dealing with some, some off the field issues to put it politely. So, you know, I do want to give him a little bit of a pass because the offensive line stuff and where the team was, but yeah, clearly he's, he's not at the level he was when he, I think he led the league the one year in rushing when he was in, when he was in Vegas. He's put up some pretty good years. Three years ago, my best year firm was 2024 for Green Bay. I thought he was a special difference making player. And that was the surprise. I guess here's the thing, 90, even if they're in the sort of my thin argument because sure. How do you grade the guys behind him if he's suddenly the legal trouble? Oh, yeah. If they crop back up and he sits out, you're looking at Lloyd and Brooks, which is actually probably a camp battle that matters between Chris Brooks and Marche on Lloyd because status watch, Josh Jacobs will see. Yeah. So, even though they're in the bucket in my opinion of high ceiling because of the potential of OC QB being top five, I don't think you can deny the fact that the offensive line is weaker than it has been for many years under LaFlora with love. I don't think you can deny that the wide receiver room is weaker than it has been for many years under LaFlora with love. Craft being back matters, running back rooms thin, as you said. And the defense looks kind of bad, I gotta say. So there's definitely not like a high floor with these guys in my opinion just because they could find themselves in some shootouts. And then if they're up against teams with a good past rush, this offensive line might become a problem. Like, if something goes sideways for the Packers in 2026, and if they like end up as a lower floor team, then we are going to talk about on this podcast. In my opinion, it's because they are in negative game states. Jordan Love is trying to create out a structure and he's just getting sucked because he's picking side out of his face. He's just picking side out over and over and over again. And that is within the realm of possibility. It is in the range of outcomes, as they say, because this is the weakest, this is a weak roster considering where things have been coming into these seasons for the Packers. They've usually been chock full of young talent. Lots of guys that could take a step forward. And if this and this and this and this, this guy and this guy all take steps forward, then look the fuck out. Like, it doesn't really feel like that with these guys this year, which is I think why there's no notable heat on this team. I'm all honestly almost surprised at the second choice in the North right now. It's easier to kind of squint and think that there's more to room to grow with Caleb and Ben Johnson. It's easy to squint and look at the Vikings as a high floor defense with Flores and hope that Calamari takes their offense to the next level. It's easy to look at the skill position group of Lions and see why they're the top choice right now. But, you know, for me, I think the fact that Parsons is not going to be available to the middle of October, number one, it sucks for us as football fans. Number two, it really takes the air out of optimism around Appleton, Wisconsin. And a new DC in charge. Granted, it should be a lot of the same, but that said, we have maybe never really seen it from Ganon outside of what the one year that he was great in Philly. And that was with some of honestly some elite players that really made that defense look good. Got him that job in Arizona. Benefit of the doubt in Arizona, the roster is more great. So sometimes it's hard to judge, but you are bringing in a new DC. Your offensive coordinator is Adam Stenevich. I'm just going to say that out loud because I don't think I could have said that without my notes. It's one of those ten, you have those like ten teams who are like, you know, O'Connell and the, the, the Florida and these guys who call their own plays and you just always forget who they will see us. But yeah, Jonathan Ganon coming in at DC, you have a new special teams coach in Cam Accard. From New England, Luke Getz, he was promoted to assistant head coach, quarterback's coach, what not. Bobby Babich is on this, is on the staff. Remember him? There's a few different that I don't know if I could name exactly where he's all been, but it was a Buffalo DC at some point. And then yeah, you want to talk before we get into the roster and the bar ratings, talk about some of the other offseason changes. I've done it. Yeah. Yeah. I got one two two teeny notes. Remember when, 2025's remember when? I mean, besides the fact that the Green Bay Packers were at one point, my number one power a team and I was pretty confident that they were live for a run. I'm going to get the one see that that point. I mean, that's what it was like. That's kind of, you know, they were, they had their high was as high as anyone and they ultimately cashed it in with zero playoff ones. They were extremely entertaining. Obviously in the high leverage game before Christmas and then the playoff game. But you know what I'll remember them most for Andy? They were the turds in the punch bowl of survivor last year. Like they twice, twice the loss to the Browns week three inexcusable, inexcusable, absolutely inexcusable. They were up against Joe Flacco behind a mash unit offensive line. Joe Flacco threw it for 142 yards that day. Zero touchdowns. A pick got sack twice. You weren't able to beat that team. Absolutely, absolutely embarrassment that they didn't win that game. And then they punked us against Caroline Panthers week nine. They you want to do you remember what the spread wasn't that game any? The five one and one five one and one Packers hosting the Carolina Panthers in Lambo. Nine and a half 13 were 13 point favorites lost outright absolute embarrassment. Their game the next week against Philly was equally trash 10 seven loss. They're they're low. When did that win the millions? No, no survivor because mostly I think we would have if we could have passed those games, we probably would have won. I think so too. We had I mean, we saved all of the two right teams for late in the season. So I completely agree with you. They did punk. I think they probably punk some teams may have taken the lions on Thanksgiving. And they got them down. They were three point dogs at Detroit on Thanksgiving and they won that started the cavalcade of dogs on Thanksgiving coming across the wire. But yeah, let's talk about the other offseason changes because they were a ton. And most of them most of them were minuses. Yeah. I don't know if I don't know you feel about Rashan Gary as a whole, but great number two. He was traded now you yeah, you're one and you're two are out because ones in Dallas and one is on the couch rehabbing. Don Tavine Wicks previously mentioned when we talked Philly, letting him and Dub's walk. I know you said that the White receiver room is it is thinner, but honestly, I'm fine. Like just pick the guys you want to keep. You have like seven receivers like pick the ones you want and get them more reps. I guess so maybe I'm fine with Wicks being out. They did add to on hardgrave, which is. Wicks and Dub's gone. Yeah, Wicks and Dub's gone. You added fun hardgrave from Minnesota. He's 33 I think. It's an upgrade a little bit and interior past rushing. But I have him is a I have him he's healthy enough. He's going to play I have him as a negative for runstop inside. So he's probably rotating in just done past rushing stuff. He had Benjamin St. Eust, the cornerback, it was going to be in a boundary, the competition for the boundary corner. He was with the chargers wasn't he was pretty bad in Washington. He started his career with the commanders, maybe the football team at that point. He was better. He was better in in charge of land. He had mentor he had mentor dust sprinkled. Yeah, they think he's better. He was I mean, he was better. He was he was I mean, part of that was because he was real bad in Washington. Yes, and with with the Nate Hobbs, you know, they gave up a Nate Hobbs. So that's you got to do something there. You brought in Tyrant Taylor because you lost Malik Willis. You need another backup. You can't argue with that. If you're going to have an experience backup, you can do a lot worse. You brought in Josh while Lee. I never remember how to say this. It's like a third tight end. I yeah, Elkton Jenkins. We mentioned he. It was a lot of money for a guy who snapped his leg and the cat. I was kind of cat math. I think is where they got rid of it, even though they're kind of. of thin in the interior offensive line. So I guess, Quay Walker and Rashid Walker, both walkers. Linebacker and left tackle, Althador to Vegas and Carolina respectively. I mentioned Nate Hobbs was gone and Brampton McManus was released, the kicker. That was wanted. Yeah, it's, I guess he was a little spending too. They did like resigning or whatever but they did resigning and extend a few of these other receivers Watson Reed, Devante White after the injury. And then I don't know, did I miss anybody on the, the additions and subtractions? Colby Wooden. Colby Wooden. Okay. Defensive tackle from Indy earlier right before the tampering period. Rotational, just rotational defensive lineman. I think that was where they lost a, say, or Franklin. Obviously. No, is that a Franklin still here? Okay. No. Yeah. What are you trying to say? It brought the Zaire Franklin in from India, I think, right? Yeah, I have that, I have it backwards. Okay. Notable, Colby Wooden traded for Zaire Franklin. Yeah. Oh, there you go. Not a, not a additional subtraction, but notable that they reset the interior D D lineman market with the Devante White contract. He's good. It's a lot of money, but some of these contracts, I get a little frustrated with people getting worked up about not taking to shot at you because we all do it. But like, oh, man, that's a lot of money for that guy. It's like, yeah, it's just the timing sometimes. Like, hey, he was due and the contracts always go up and guess what? The, you know, the cap went up again. The cap's going up more than we expected. Every time it goes up more than we expected some amount. Sometimes he's, these guys who you view as like mid to upper, instead of elite, they get these big contracts because of the timing. And to their credit, it's like, hey, you were just lucky. Like, it's like the guy who cashes out is 401k with the market center and all time high. Like, you could have predicted that 60 years ago and you open it or whatever. Like, just happy, good job for you. I guess I just don't see it with him personally. I don't know. I have him rated pretty high. I'm snapping his back is bad. I didn't care for that. Sure. And then real quick on the draft mentioned no first rounder, but they did draft a corner in the second who was many scouts thought he was a first round talent. Which one? Brendan's sissy. I know which way we're going to go with that speed, twitch, anticipation, a lot of people high in the sky. He walks into a place where he can compete for a spot for sure. And if not maybe right away, maybe mid season, when he gets a little more experience, he was 20 years old on draft day. That's pretty young. Wow. Draft. That's a, that's a booking the norm. I think he do he has or did or something. I've checked that. They traded up in the third round to take defensive tackle, Chris McClallon from Missouri because of some of the. Because they didn't have a no style. Some of the turnover on the off at or the defensive line rather. And he, as I mentioned, hardgraves, not a great runstopper. But can pass rush from the inside. This is kind of your, they were going to make one guy out of two guys. Because this is a true no stack hole. Big guy can stop the run. You play him early. So I list at 313. I'm picking off. Wow. I guess it's, it's that's our good enough against the runstopper. That's kind of what they're projecting. And then this is a guy that Newton likes this guy. Newton of four for four fame. Our big IDP guy is one of the best IDP fantasy analysts in the whole world. DDS, I'm calling him. And then I'm going to slowly, slowly morph that into the dentist because the dentist, DDS Danny Dennis. He was at a doctor of dental science. Is that what DDS dance for? Thanks. I don't know. I just see it on the end at the science and for me. A doctor of dental science. That checks out. But DDS was a combined hero. We'll see how much that transforms. But he expected to be a high floor rotational rush doctor of dental surgery. Oh, yeah. Oh, either way, the dentist is maybe going to be called into service sooner because of the obviously the person being on pop. What's his what's his pedigree? Penn State. Yeah. Okay. He got his dental degree from Penn State. He was a fourth-rowed pick. Again, he was a guy that he blew up the combine with some of his athletic stuff. They drafted another interior lineman. As we mentioned, that's an issue. They had some depth at and Jagger Burton from Kentucky in the fifth round. And then another quarterback in the sixth from Alabama Jackson, Devani Jackson, and then Trace Mack, the kicker from Florida. Trace Mack. Oh, I want him to win the kicker competition because Trace Mack is a good name. That's a good kicker name. That's a great kicker name. He set the Florida University of Florida record with 10 field goals of 50 yard plus. He's in competition with Lucas. He's going to have a sick. He's going to. Here's a quick question. He's going to win because Lucas Havocick or Havocick, I was thinking, I'm like, I remember him kicking a little, but there were so many guys that got rotated around how many kickers attempted a field goal in the league last year for the 32 NFL teams? 51. That's 41. 41. 41. That's just so out there. But how many kickers, how many kickers did a kickoff in the league last year? Kick the ball off of a tee to the other team? 32. 55. What? One of them was Ray Davis. I got to figure out what happened. What? I think there was an injury or something. I don't know what happened there, but I was just kind of looking at I kind of remember that where he did the kickoff and people were wondering, are they going to go for two or they're going to have Ray Davis do the extra points if they score more touchdowns and maybe we need Ray Davis here. But there's your offseason. There's a lot of backfilling in spots you needed to that said, roster wise. It's got trace Mac, man. Yeah, you got rid of some of the receivers. Hopefully you saved the ones that are good. Your offense, flying is Zach Tom and some Jags. Your running backroom is thin in the back end and the big. I gotta tell you in a weird spot. Your breakdown there of the roster changes to me, it feels like poor planning. You had this was a bad year to have a lot of talent walk out the door and have this little draft capital to recoup. It feels like it was this is a little bit of a, you know, there was some bust in the vision. Now whether that's because there was a brain drain with who's the GM that moved on to Miami. Remember that guy? Yeah, I can. I'm not sure if it was a brain drain or what, but I definitely feel like this was a little bit of like once you sat down and looked at the books, if you're Brian Goudekun's. Goudekun's. If you were Goudekun's this offseason, when you sat down, you looked at your books, you were like, ah shit. This is the offseason we got to take a little medicine because I don't know that, you know, I don't know that you're loved, you're loving sort of the turnover that occurred. John Eric Sullivan. Thank you. Thank you. All right. I'll talk ratings. But before we do, do we have a sponsor for this podcast? These podcasts are brought to you by the circa sports contests for the 2026 NFL season, which we'll be signing up for in a few weeks and we hope you do too. If you make it out to the desert next week for bet bash, we'll see you out there. If you make it out for sign up weekend, which if you're signing up, I think based on how many contest entries you sign up for, you can actually just get free rooms from as well and other perks. I'm going to triple check into the actual details on that. So I have them for one of the next podcasts. But look at, look on the side because I think you can get yourself some free stuff too. If you're already signing up, you might as well get the free stuff. Yeah. 20 millionish for a survivor. And I think it's 6 million for circa millions seven. And then additionally, the grandissimo, which is I think 6 million last year. So there's 30 plus million up up for grabs, $1,000 in entry or more if you want new grandissimo. And if you have any questions on how to do it, how to sign up, how to find your proxy, how to get stuff going, how it works, you can just DM us or hit us up in the discord for your part of that because we can help you out. We've been doing it for a while. It's not that hard. Just pick some winners guys. Just hit 65% and everything will be alright. I love it. I just went to try to go grab do a screen grab of the of our three fronts. Obviously Derek Mike Palm and Jeff Benson. They're making a very funny look on the YouTube thumbnail. and I was gonna try to screen grab that and put it up while you do the read and I wasn't fast enough but you know what I did see? In the opening little montage, we're both in. They have like the super cut of everybody talking about like they're sign up on their time today. We're there. - Yeah. - We're in the mix. - Yeah, they were. - They were. - They sent it to me. - I will. - Let's look at that. No, it's funny because I watched another clip and they showed those fireworks. And I'm like, hey, there was a girl that was very drunk up there that said, "No." - And had some choice words for Andy. And I'm like, I know who this person is. - Strong negotiator. - And again, our good friend Derbify was featured in a couple of days. I'm gonna see him again out there this week or in a couple of weeks when he come out. Let's get into the power ratings for the Green Bay. - All right. - We start with the QBOC combination. I still hold out that Michael Flore is one of the Michael Flore and Matt LaFlor. - Matt LaFlor is one of the more kind of reliable play designer, play sequencer, visionary, kind of offensive minds going. Is he on the elite tier of the Ben Johnson's and the Shawn McBase of the world? Probably not. Is he on that next tier? Absolutely. There's no evidence that his ability to coach up back up quarterbacks on the fly is, is that that's clearly a strength of his. His in-game adjustments have been strong when they've needed to be. He has had some duds as far as game plans go, but every offensive mind does. I think he keeps this number high, even if Jordan Love is struggling for whatever reason, but there's no reason to think Jordan Love will struggle. His EPA numbers last year were God. He was excellent and it wasn't just on the back of playing a bunch of shitty defenses like the Cowboys and the Lions, although three of his top five performances came against the Cowboys and the Lions. - A lot of people-- - He did. - That performance was good. - Cowboys. - Yeah, he had a strong performance against the Washington Commanders, he had a strong, can you actually believe this Andy? He did well against the Bengals also, but he didn't face a lot of very good defenses. He did have a positive number against the Vikings when he played them week 12 in the 23/6 win. He was very strong in that game. He did well against-- Well enough, better than every other quarterback, practically, they played the Denver Broncos. He did not have a negative EPA game, despite the two interceptions that he threw in that contest. So, I think Jordan Love has kind of proven, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. And I would say we have to start within the sevens here. My consistency now is-- - Famping because he didn't have your spreadsheet open. - My consistency now, the last two years, was seven says 7.3 is his fair. 73rd percentile for Mr. Love and Mr. Lufour. - It's funny, I have the exact same number. We don't often have the exact same, we're close on a bunch today, but I have the exact same number. I came up with this well. A lot of it was based on-- He had a high completion percentage. He was a fish in last year, a patcher, and he was not-- - A man, his efficiency last year was-- - Efficiency was really good. And as Patrick's mentioning, I don't love Flufour as much in the playoffs. (laughing) I might have to-- But this is for weak one. This is far from the playoffs as we can get. So, I'm not-- - That's an intangible thing, though. - Yeah, I'm not docking that quite yet. - Right. - Yeah, we'll go-- I'm right there with you. - Like doing stuff like kicking a field goal when you need five points against the bucket years or your seasons over. What doesn't say well with me? But game planning and in game adjusting guys killer. Okay, Skill Position Group for me-- Oh, sorry, Skill is next, yes. Skill Position Group for me is a 5.4. Some of this is a little bit of trepidation. I got a C TuckerCraft do what he was doing last year. If he's able to have the same level of success that we saw from him at his high points last season, I would say that this group number is gonna go up into the sixes. And then at the wide receivers are not able to kind of backstop the losses and guys like Golden and Reed aren't able to, kind of take steps forward. Watson's not able to stay healthy. There's room for this to go down. You mentioned the Josh Jacobs is backed up right now by a guy who's not practicing in Chris Brooks, Arshon Lloyd, Pierre Strong Jr. This is a stinky, stinky, depth chart running back. And yeah, all of the depth stinks. They're scope for this to go either way, but I'm starting into 5.4. - I'm at a 5.6 year, a little higher, but same echoing what you said, I would go higher if I seen TuckerCraft playing well. It sounds like he's skipping preseason as he still has to get to be 100% off the ACL. So I don't know that I'm gonna move this up immediately, but Watson is very, I'm a very, I'm a very, very fan of him as far as like his average judge, Prickatch, his DVOA as a person, and he got paid. And then Reed, he's, when he's healthy, when he's standing upright, he's a proven slot player. Jacob still grades out well enough that I'm happy if he's the bell cow. He's not in legal trouble, obviously. That's an adjustment we're gonna have to make if we get any news on him and the offseason, you know, stuff that allegedly occurred. And then yeah, like you said, the depth is a little rough as far as that. You got to save Jan Williams. He was injured. You have a sky more brought in as a free agent. He was free agent for a reason. You have Beaumulton still in this team. So behind the top three receivers, it's a little tough. And then Tucker craft being injured. I'm starting a little lower. Okay. Offensive line is very, very tough. The consensus. Pretty good. Yeah, I think there's one really good player on this offensive line. Exact on. Yeah. I have a plus for Zach Tom. I have a small minus for Sean Ryan. Rahan. I have a decent minus for Jordan Morgan, a decent minus for Aaron Banks and a very large negative next to Anthony Belton. Who might not play? Who might not? He's he's a big negative in my mind too. And he's in a competition. So yeah, I mean, you say I'm at a 4.7 here. Zach Tom is your pillar. He's very good. If you fit around, you beat out your current and starting right guard, that's bad. Well, not that, but some of the drafting you did in previous years hasn't hand out to backfill some of the spots. Like the Jordan Morgan left tackle. He's failed to beat guys out to get a spot for a couple of years. He was like Rashid Walker was ahead of you and Aaron Banks, obviously, has not played to what he was a 2024 pick. Yeah, Arizona, I think. How did he last year? He's been trying to, you know, I feel like he was a first round or two. Oh, definitely was late first. First lead lead first round pick there. He hasn't played up to his draft spotter and Banks hasn't played up to his contract. Sean Riyant Ryan. Rhaian. Rhaian? Don't know. He his pressure rates as a center were pretty bad. I honestly, the rest of the centers in the league are so bad. I can't actually dig him. I mean, his blown block rates amongst guards was pretty rough when he played. So and again, it might not even be him. We have what the the Belton Burton battle for right guard. Belton's Burton and and the worst part is that your best player had that patellar injury and a whole piece feeling up to stuff because he's got a play pretty good if you want to. How did you go? Maybe I need to be lower. No, I'm a 4.7. I still think time is very good. I don't be year to high that because I'm in the 4.6. I don't think Jordan Morgan is bad. It's just he he was expected to be contributing. Yeah, he's not. Yes, he's he's not. Yeah, this is not a parotackles that's anchoring. You know, one of the offensive ones in league anymore. Aaron Banks isn't bad. It's just they paid him like he was in the a lot better. Yeah, yes, this is fair. This fair. So it's perception problem. I may be a little little little average 4.7. Fine. I'm your class. I'm at a 4.6. I just kind of want to point out that again, like I tried to crowdsource this a hair and 4.4 has this as the 30th best offensive line 30th 3 0. Bottom three. Yeah, interesting. I am actually you and I both are on the high side for this group in a just in a crowdsource kind of manner. FtN has them 28th. My clay had them 26th worth monitoring. We may be too high. And honestly, that's where I feel like the Achilles heel is with the entire offense because I don't really have. a strong sense Andy of what is Jordan loves performance like if you're getting quick pressure up the middle consistently. If he's breaking the pocket and he's on the roll and he I've seen him do amazing things particularly striking down Vildo Christian Watson like he can do it. We know he can do it but if it's quick if the pressure is coming a little quicker and more consistently on more obvious passing down like they're at a deficit does that does that really ding this group because as a whole I think this is still a very good offense. I have them 13th they are 60 second percent out for me. So I have a lot of opinions in that range like between 60 between 60 and 65 percent there's like 10 teams. Yeah so they're you know they're just a smidge away from being like the fifth best offense but they're also a smidge away from being like the 18th best offense. I have them as 61st percentile right right in the mix of a lot of the really good teams. They're just not the Rams you know. Defense for me weighs in at a 48th percentile 17th best in the NFL. Their strength is seven for me. Strength for me was the runstop 5.2 that feels high as I look at this dip chart. Coverage I have a 5.2 that may be a little bit low and then their pass rush is a 4.2 which is um you know that's not clamorous that's you know kind of bottom 10 in the NFL for me until my comparisons comes back. I'm not seeing how you're necessarily generating the pressure you need to put away opponents. Is that fair? Yeah I think that's pretty fair. He's very good. I think we can make a comparison some some crap there. My pass rush was 4.5 compared to your 4.2. I made it right in the same kind of range. We're going to be relying on Lucas Van Ness to take a step forward here. We're relying on these guys you brought in a rookie nose tackle McLellan, Hardgrave, the trade you made for your sayer Franklin. He's a run D upgrade I think more so Edgerton Cooper playing your week side backer and then Devonte Wyatt is back and hopefully 100% healthy so at below average but obviously it takes a huge jump up in six weeks when we get parsons back. By runs you're right your runstop was 5.2. I'm I'm not there. I like I like some of the defensive secondary pieces like you know McKinney can help with that. Evan Williams definitely helps with that. I'm high on Edgerton Cooper and I know it. He's a three downline backer. He'll be good player. He's a very good player. I think he's important but I mentioned Hardgrave's liability you know some of your edges are just pure edges and then I think what we're saying is the same thing which is the second level will be tested. They probably will answer those questions on the test but they will be tested. Yeah I'm starting at a 4.2 on runstop for now. I'll bring it up. I like Cooper. I like Franklin. I like maybe McClellan. We're going to find out he's a rookie but starting low and then coverage I was a little lower as well 4.5. It's a hey say for McKinney you're really good. Okay and then that's the rest of it. Carrington Valentine versus St.Jews and the other rookie that I we are Cissy. Ciss. Kishon Nixon is just your de facto CB1 I guess Javon Bullard will be your nickel. He was a good slot corner slot defensive back. Evan Williams I mentioned good strong safety but I think he's probably up in the box more often. So me I mean it could improve if we get better play from Valentine or St.Jews and Nixon takes a step forward but for now it's yeah middle of the pack. Okay um I thought Nixon regressed a little so I'm not I'm not going to fight you on that. I really had a tough time with I've had a tough time with this secondary now three years gone like are they good? Quashimark I don't know. Yeah. Intangibles. I won with a 6.9 and I actually think all floors go for it rate was surprisingly positive. His pass over expected especially when he does it like when he's got a short second down I feel like that's super super effective as part of his bag of tricks right every everybody's expecting a run move the chains and he he takes a swing. I don't know is there anything out what am I missing about LaFlore and his intangibles that year a little are. Yeah I'm a little lower I thought he's in that second group but he's not he's not elevated this way up top and here's the thing I gave him a lot of the credit I want to give him in the QBOC number. Okay. All right. I'm a little I'm a little lower there and I guess I'd like to sharpen up my numbers a little on fourth down goal rates stuff I don't use that as heavily as I could so I'm at a 5.6 there and then special teams were close I have 4.9 you have 4 I did I did change I went back to my old ratings. You gave me extra point nine because the all name team Trace Mac Trace Mac special teams is um it wasn't great last year it was like a pretty bad partner turn operation I think they're gonna maybe use Skymore in that census here I'm trying to think uh yeah you really gonna make the team I think I think Skymore was kind of brought in to be your returner I feel like if he makes the team that's a bad time but he he's a good returner he he was like top 10 in the league and like you put Matthew Golden back there get do something with him so I think Matthew Golden, Savian Williams and even Reed and Melton are in the mix. Okay okay yeah a lot of it was got a lot of those guys I think are very much on the bubble a lot of my uh my number was hey you know what you got a pretty decent punter in wailin and then you have a rookie probably a rookie kicker and then Skymore is good so average number for me okay uh overall I'm at a 58th percentile which gets me to a.87 um obviously we do things differently we don't need cover this every time but uh I think you're probably pretty close what's your percentile my percentile for the green bay pack is I'm gonna put that on the thing next year my percentile as a team is a 59.4 percent yes yes it wins 10.1 games so I'm at a 58.4 percentile team that wins 4.9 games no sorry 9.4 games 29.4 the market rate now I'm gonna put projected wins on the on the charts next that's fun uh the market rating for the green bay packers is a 2.88 so regardless of how you do it and how we got to your numbers we are both cooler than the packers relative to market I also feel like I might most of the numbers and most of the flags I have are ready to turn down on this team like I definitely don't think there's a world where I work here seven there's no biggest strengths on the QBO QBO and what's what's your biggest question mark on the offense is is that offensive line going to be it could be shit and really average or is it going to be bottom three yeah because if it's league average then those strengths can shine and bring everybody up the rising tide if the offensive line is a legit liability and love is constantly pressured or injured then yeah this team is finishing fourth in the division because they're starting to rot tailored for nine games and that's a problem so yeah it's it's it's kind of a weakling system team where the weakling really could hose everybody and take all of your strengths away from you also feel like if your defensive coordinator the game plan is very straightforward like gets the interior pressure yeah Minnesota week one as you look at the schedules not necessarily a lot of opportunity for them to get interior pressure that'll that'll be worth kind of keeping an eye on that might kind of turn that into more of an overgame but we'll return to those thoughts in a couple of weeks time otherwise your opening salvo games has a couple of very highly you know expected wins here before you get to November yeah three games were your favorite by a touch down I guess Jets my guess is you'll be favorite by a touchdown week two not six and a half we'll see seven and a half point favorites against that Lana on Thursday and Jack Strand Jack Strand and the Lana Falcons only only catchin seven and a half points that seems that seems low they signed they signed Cooper Rush today I saw that I think they're a little worried about their complex being healthy is Cooper Rush a lefty I don't know I don't know if it's gonna work I would say that just generally this is a pretty favorable schedule but but there's a ton of coin flips like all of the NFC North teams you're gonna have to win your close calls if you're gonna distinguish yourself in this division. you do draw the Detroit Lions, your dreaded rival on the road coming off of there. By that stinks. And it is also a game four p.m. start in between two prime time games where you're going to have a short week to play Carolina the following week. I don't love the fact that off of your buy your buy. Yeah, you off of your buy into the Wednesday Thanksgiving day game against the Rams who are also coming off there by. So your buy gets neutered double kind of neutered, right? Yeah, you don't get as much time off to, I mean, everything foot football aside, Drew. Yeah, I mean, game planning, getting ready, football aside, these guys who are used to playing in the league, they're used to that by week being a bit of a respite. And you're shortened your five several days. Yeah, you're reading my mind. It's shortened by, it's shortened by several days. Are they going to actually get like make them comply by the buy rules where they're not going to be in the facility until Monday. And then they got to play. I would think they would lighten that up. But that's an interesting question we're thinking into because that's a tough one. I mean, that's almost a scheduled loss anyway. I don't know. Hey, guess what? You get another team off the buy and it's the top-row rated team in the league. But I don't know. They can have absolutely win that game. That'll be a great one if the Packers are playing well. But that stinks. The scheduling of the track game stinks. And then we got to look that up about if they gave, if they gave them rules, rules. What's what's it, what's it called when you make a little provision? An exception. An exception. They gave them a rules exception about how they're using that by week. I mean, it's the same situation from both teams. It's just whether it's just what it's what a place at home. Yeah, one of them plays at home and one of them maybe needs the extra time. That's you. Yeah. So you know, you know, it's a huge positive of playing that Wednesday. Thanksgiving day game. Andy. What? You're in LA. Beautiful time here to be a Los Angeles for Thanksgiving proper, although they're probably going to put them on the fly right home into the cold. I do have something to say hit it and it harkens back to circus survivors slash any survivor you play. I need to actually go look at this and see what the overlap is. But I feel like we've done seven or eight of these. How many of these have we done? Is this week three? This is week three. So we are 11 of these. Yes, 11. I feel like we've said this four or five times already where it's like oh, they play Thanksgiving and Christmas. Yeah, you know what? You're right. You know what? If there's a ton of overlap, it really limits your it limits your. It just takes it takes a good-ish teams where you just can't touch them. Yeah, that's crazy because you can't use them both times obviously. It makes that decision that much tougher. So overall tough-ish schedule, but you do draw the AFC EC to really bad teams. You draw the NFC South. I believe Tampa, Atlanta, New Orleans. So does everybody in your division? Yeah, everybody in your everyone in your division draws that team. But overall you get some easier ones there with the AFC East. You have to play New England Buffalo, which isn't great, but yeah, New England Buffalo Rams Detroit, Houston. There's some toughies on the schedule. Yeah, second-place schedule, stuff. The 10 implied wins, if they go 10 and 7, I don't think any of us would be shocked. Final thoughts on the Green Bay Packers, Andy. Getting angles, anything? I guess I'm going to take them on early in the season in games where they're playing a team that can really generate a pretty impressive interior pass rush, which as we look at the opponents might not be anyone. What the heck? They may not face a good interior pass rusher until week six, Sunday, and at football versus Dallas. Am I forgetting somebody? Minnesota does not have an especially strong interior pass rush. The jets obviously don't. Atlanta, they're more of an outside rush team. Tampa, if VitaVe is not a good buck, then they have no way at all. Chicago's interior pass rush is hilariously weak. Dallas, yeah, Dallas is your first spot. We have a good interior. Okay, so here's your betting plan. You ready? Let them win these games, let the market upgrade them even more beyond what their fair rating is, and then pull the rip cord in that Dallas Detroit Carolina stretch. Played on the Calcheys, played on the NoVigs, cash out, baby. Take your winnings, run home. I also wonder too, this is a dumb angle, I think. Maybe narrative is the better word for it. But Michael Parsons having like 13 sacks in only 11 games. People be like, oh my god, he really tore it up and it's at the end of the season that's the game. So it's what have you done for me lately? It's in the it's in prime time. It's on Wednesday. It's not only that, but you look at some of your lower rated offensive lines. I think he could probably do pretty well against Miami. I think the the jury is a little out on the Chicago rebuild. I think we can definitely say Houston's offensive line is not completely fixed nor will it ever be. And I think Detroit is we're going to talk about in our next podcast as a definite question marks. You're facing some some offensive lines you can get after in the last four games. I'm not saying that Michael Parsons defensive player of the year now sitting bet it in four weeks or four weeks into the season when somebody else is doing well. So then do the talk keep talking me through this when is he coming back? I think he's coming back week six six Sunday night football versus he's going to push to come back for. He's going to leading him out of the tunnel in Lambo against Alusette against his own team. Like that's what he pushes for I believe. That's fine right? That's not a week six and certainly week seven versus Detroit or at Detroit I guess. Because if he could get 12 12 games, I think you can do it. Have you get an inflated number? Somebody has six or seven sacks through five six games. There's starting to be the favorite because it's a bigger name. And he gets pushed out to 15 18 to one. I'll take a flyer on that. I'm trying to think it's certain positive because yours is a little more negative. It's better than Green Bay and then pull the rip card. I guess then that Minnesota game matters for this entire thought exercise. Your equity gets thermonuct if they lose that game. Your equity catches all of the wind if they win that game. Right? Yeah. You kind of can't set that one out if you're going to exercise a strategy of making money on the Packers futures futures swapping. You've lined up the Vikings against the spread when they're down in the lot of moving. You know what I'm you know what I'm going to know with this, which is like I think if you're going to exercise the strategy of recording this crew, you have to play at pre Minnesota and you have to basically go be going into that Sunday afternoon game with an opinion that Green Bay wins. And by the way like I we I haven't mentioned that we haven't talked about week one at all. This is flipped favorite. Have you seen that? Yeah. Our opener is already flipped. Like there's for we you know the the true the true sickos who instead of betting into the the high liquidity insanity of World Cup you spent their summer making week one fairs have been pounding Minnesota in this spot. Not me. But that's a good man. That's a good one. That place. But all right man. Let's close the book on the Pack and go talk Linos unless you have any closing thoughts. Do you think we did DMCA for that? No. I don't think so. I don't think so. That's in the public. That's in the public domain man. That goes back to like the 30s probably. I've been somebody with the history of the Green Bay Packers since it's always going to be saxophone back. Go back. Go back. Go. It's introduced. Yeah. All right. It thumbs up. It's subscribe. Guys. I'm going to podcast with you. I appreciate you and we'll see you for the Lions.