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2026 First Base Recap! Preseason ADP, Top-12 Finishes & More! (10/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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2026 First Base Recap! Preseason ADP, Top-12 Finishes & More! (10/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

This episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, hosted by Frank Stampfl with Scott White and Chris Towers, recaps the first base position for the 2026 fantasy season. The hosts begin by discussing the World Series matchup between the Brewers and Rays, with picks favoring Milwaukee in six or seven games, and note Freddie Peralta's impressive ALCS MVP performance. The main segment analyzes the top 12 first basemen according to the Fangraphs Player Rater. The position was historically deep, with 11 players exceeding $20 in Roto value. Ben Rice topped the list with $39 of value and 41 home runs, though his ranking for 2027 is debated given his age and potential peak. Pete Alonso ranked second, showing sustained improvements in contact quality and plate discipline. Miguel Vargas was the biggest breakout, posting 33 homers and 22 steals with a major bat-speed increase. Sal Stewart, Alec Burleson, Matt Olson, Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper, Yandy Diaz, Jake Bowers, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jack Caglione rounded out the top 12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the biggest bust, finishing 221st overall after a second-round ADP, hampered by injuries and declining metrics. The hosts also debate rankings for next season, emphasizing the depth at first base and the value of multi-position eligibility, particularly third base and outfield. They highlight breakout candidates like Jack Caglione and caution against overvaluing players with unsustainable RBI totals or limited track records.

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Speaker 4rushing deep left field. This is where the walk-a-walk. - Got a fantasy question? Email [email protected]. Get ready to win your league. - Where fantasy becomes reality. - Now here's Frank, Scott, and
Speaker 3Chris. - First base is loaded. We'll break it all down. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball Today on Thursday, October 22nd. I am Frank Stample. Joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, position recaps continue on. Next, we have first base. Again, loaded position. We'll look at pre-season ADP. Who finished top 12? Plus, if we have time, we'll get to some early rankings. If not, FBT Express. It's gonna be our FBT Express episode no matter what. But the World Series is set. We mentioned it towards the end of our last podcast. The Brewers going up against the Rays. Two great baseball teams, two small market teams. Feels like a coin flip. Do you guys have a lean here, a pick in the World Series? -
Speaker 5I think the Brewers have more high-end talent. I think they're the more talented team. - Yeah. They have the best pitcher in the series, you know? - Yeah, they have the best, although, I mean. - Rasmussen is awesome. - The way Drew Rasmussen is pitching right now, and Mizorowski's been, I don't think he's been bad in the post-season, but he hasn't been, he hasn't really dominated. A game yet. The way Rasmussen has kind of every time he's gone out there. So I do think Mizorowski's better, but Rasmussen's pitching lights out right now. - The Miz has had to face tougher teams, I guess. - Sure, yeah. I do think the Brewers are on the whole, the more talented team. So I'll pick them, but I think it's very close. And I'm not sure I have a strong lean either way. -
Speaker 3I think it's going pretty deep too. I think we probably get six or seven games out of this one. -
Speaker 5Well, like any time you're picking, you know, you're like, "Oh, who's going to win, Team X and four?" It's like, nobody ever picks a sweep, right? Like that's just unlikely to happen. So you pick a five if you think one team's really good, like one team's really better than the other, you pick five. - Yeah. - And if you're a coward, you pick seven. -
Speaker 3Oh, come on. I'm right here, dude.
Speaker 5Like, jeez. - I think six is actually kind of the coward's call. - Tell me how you really feel. - Right? 'Cause that's like, oh, well I think they're better, but I want to be respectful. So I'll say six. It's a pick five. Brewers and six is my pick. -
Speaker 6Hmm. How's this for the coward's call? Not going to pick. You're not going to make me do it. - Wow. - I think either one could win. I think it's a coin flip. I think the Rays starting pitcher depth is better. Like, I think they could. I mean, look, the Brewers just got through the Dodgers. No problem. And you're not going to find a better starting staff than that, but you know, obviously, things could play out differently in this series. And I normally like to pick the team with, that I think can throw the better starting pitchers out there since they can single-handedly take over games. But I kind of feel like the Brewers are going to win. I mean, obviously they had the best record, the best run differential. So I don't know. I don't really want to pick. And I don't have a strong rooting interest either. - So Brewers and seven is Scott's pick. - Sure. - So we'll go with that. You can, you can, you can state my pick for me. -
Speaker 3Scott, the old fence sitter. I asked him beforehand, he's wearing a Brew Crew shirt. Oh, are you rooting for the Brewers? He's like, nah, I'm going to wear my Rays shirt on the next episode. So there you go. If you look forward to Scott's wardrobe, that's a sneak peek of what he's going to be wearing next week. So there you go. Also shout out to Freddie Peralta, who has made himself quite a bit of money since joining the Tampa Bay Rays. He just won the ALCS MVP and over his last 10 games, nine of those being starts, one relief appearance, eight, nine ERA, a 0.91 whip, 39 strikeouts to 16 walks over 50 and two thirds innings. So he's not really doing it in the traditional Freddie Peralta sense. He's, you know, using the change up more, relying on balls and play and things like that, but he's, he's pitching well, he's keeping runs off the board and yeah, I think he's made himself quite a bit of money. So a free agent to be, we will see where Freddie Peralta winds up this off season, but let's get into the first base position, which I have mentioned multiple times now is loaded. According to the Fangraphs Player Rater, we had 11 first base eligible players give 20 or more dollars of value. 24 names provide at least $10 worth of value. For reference, the year prior, just three provided $20 of value and 14 provided $10 of value. So it was loaded up top. It was loaded with depth. It was loaded everywhere. And then in points leagues, we had 21, 21 first baseman with 400 plus fantasy points in 2025, it was 16 with 400 plus. So not as big of a disparity, but Scott, we talked about it all season long and it's backed up, especially by the roto numbers here. It was an amazing first pace season. -
Speaker 6Yeah. And like not enough players are losing eligibility at the position that I, that I'm worried about the depth for next season. I mean, it, you know, you may think Josh Naylor, is in for a bounce back season 'cause he was playing through injury. Well, the highest I could get him is 24th for next year. TJ Rumfield was really good. A big part of my Tout Wars team that won the championship. Highest I could get him is 25th. Michael Bush, you think he's gonna bounce back? Highest I could get him is 26th. Now, some of them ahead of those names are going to be multi-eligible, like Miguel Vargas, Sal Stewart, more likely drafted to play third base.
Speaker 5And Curtis Meade, probably a third baseman. -
Speaker 6Curtis Meade, yup. - Jake Bowers, probably outfield. -
Speaker 3Yup. - Caglione's probably outfield too. -
Speaker 6Yeah. - And I have Liam Hicks. - Alec Burleson, I think.
Speaker 3No, Alec Burleson's just first base. -
Speaker 6Burleson's just gonna be first base. Who did you say before Burleson? - Caglione. - Yes, Caglione likely drafted us up. But that's it. Like, so we're still talking 19 players that I'd feel really good about drafting as a starter next year. Even assuming all those guys are drafted for some other position. So yeah, it's really deep. I think it's clearly the deepest position for next year, going into the year anyway. These things have a way of changing over the course of the year. But first base far and away the deepest position as things appear right now. -
Speaker 3Let's take a look back at pre-season ADP at first base. This is according to Fantasy Pros. So it was an accumulation of all different websites, CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, NFBC. I think RT Sports is in there as well. The number one first baseman drafted. That's right. It was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With a pick, average pick of 18.4. Nick Kurtz, also a second round pick. Followed by Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Raphael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Josh Naylor, Ben Rice. Probably drafted as a catcher, but had the first base eligibility. Vinny P. - Baby. - And then Tyler Soderstrom and Michael Bush. That was your pre-season top 12. According to the Fangraphs Player Rater, 25 of those finished inside the top 12. So it wasn't as predictable as catcher, but it was just a bunch of names that emerged and broke out at the position. Clearly the biggest bust was Vlad Jr. Who was at the top of the ADP, second round pick in Fantasy. He hit just 260, nine homers, 72 RBIs, seven steals, 688 OPS, StatCast stuff came way down across the board. Chris, we know that he played through numerous injuries. There was an elbow contusion, recurring discomfort, recurring back tightness. He went on the concussion IL in August. So we are hoping that that is the clear answer excuse for Vlad Jr.'s down season and that he can bounce back next year. Where the ADP winds up, I have no idea.
Speaker 5I'm certainly open to the idea that that is why he had a bad season. And he was at least decent in April. It was kind of mostly just a really high batting average, though. He didn't really hit for any power in April, and that continued all season. And then once the batting average kind of normalized, all of a sudden he looked really, really bad. And so, sure, I think he probably wasn't healthy most of the season, but I don't necessarily buy that as the excuse for why he was so bad. I think he just had a bad season. And I think this is a fairly clear example of a guy who got a little overrated because of a big postseason run. Like, he's always been a pretty good regular season player, but he wasn't worth a top 20 pick in 2025. We pushed him up there because he had a monster postseason, and it reminded us of how good he can be when he's at his best. But, you know, you go through his career. How many seasons has he really been worth? Like a top 20 pick? I think it's probably just two.
Speaker 6How many seasons has he not been drafted as that, though?
Speaker 3Um, I don't have. You don't have that answer. I am looking into his overall finishes over the past five years, and I will let you know once I have all that data. But, Scott, if you have any thoughts on Vlad Jr.
Speaker 5He, well, but in, so 2025, he was the 12th pick on average. 12.9 in ADP. 2024, he was 30th. Like, I think he's probably been around 30 at worst. Since that breakout season. In 2021, I think, was the big season? Yeah. And so.
Speaker 3And that was also the season that he played in minor league ballparks that could have propped up his numbers that season.
Speaker 5Yeah, he's been a top 50 pick every year since 2021, at least, from what I'm looking at. I'm looking at NFBC data. I think he has been a pretty unprofitable player. Throughout his career. 2021, huge profit. 2024, probably mild profit, but not a huge amount. Do you have his ADP from 2024? Yeah. Coming into this season, he was around 30th.
Speaker 3Yeah, so he finished 13th. So that was a pretty good profit year.
Speaker 5That's a really good year. But then he was the fifth pick heading into 2025.
Speaker 3His overall finishes the past five years, 36th, 77th, 13th, 47th, 221st.
Speaker 6Yeah. Last year was clearly the outlier, but. Yeah, that's the point I'm trying to emphasize. I think as the years have played out, we've often talked about how Vladimir Guerrero isn't worth where he's being taken. I know we were on that train last year. I even had Nick Kurtz ranked ahead of him. I know. I don't remember if you guys did or not. But I wasn't going to draft Vladimir Guerrero in round two because he, as you're saying, he is perpetually overrated. Right. He's only had a couple of years where he's actually performed like that first slash second rounder. But last year was obviously like that's almost getting sidetracked from the story of last year where you would have been better off dropping Vladimir Guerrero after a couple of months, which has never been an idea that's presented with him before. Which is why, like, okay, on the one hand, you could say. You could say he's perpetually overrated. Sure, there's some truth to that. There was truth to that even going into 2026. On the other hand, he had consistently been a mainstay at first base from his early 20s. Yeah, at least a pretty good player. And so for him to have this outlier down season at age 27. Sure. With reports of him battling a bad back all year in addition to other things, I'm inclined to give him a pass. But a pass doesn't mean drafting him in round two because I wasn't drafting him in round two anyway. A draft probably means accepting the discount in round five or six or whatever it ends up being.
Speaker 3Yeah, I think I agree with that. I was just going to ask to throw out a number of where would you have to. Where would his ADP have to be next season for you to want to draft Vlad? Is it 50, 60, 75? I mean, obviously the lower the better, but. To want to draft him, I think it would
Speaker 5have to be outside the top 50. Okay. Just going through those finishes like you said, it's basically like two times that he's been clearly worth a top 50 pick. There have been a couple other seasons. Like there was one where I think you said he was 44th. 47th. 47th, like you're okay with a 47 finish as a 50th pick. But I think given the demonstrated downside that we saw, it would have to be outside of the top 50 for me.
Speaker 3The biggest breakout at the position, technically Miguel Vargas. I mean, he finishes the third best first baseman. Preseason ADP of 303. Post-hype sleeper, you know, massive season for him. Huge improvements. But if you want to, you know, use Miguel Vargas at third base for this category, I think you could go with Alec Burleson. I think there are a bunch of names you could honestly go with. Burleson, his preseason ADP was 175. He led all baseball in RBI. And then even Luis Garcia Jr. He's kind of an afterthought, rightfully so. He had kind of, you know, settled in the past couple of years as, you know, well, he had the 2020 season, but then the year after that, he wasn't so great. But his ADP was 262, and he finishes a top 12 first baseman. So big breakout for him. If you guys had to choose one, I'd probably go with Vargas, right?
Speaker 6Yeah. Oh, yeah. Vargas was probably the biggest breakout among all hitters. So that would be the one. But, yeah, this is a position that had a ton of breakout players. Ben Rice. Jake Bowers. He himself is a breakout. Jake Bowers. I have Jake Bowers as, like,
Speaker 3the sleeper, just because, again, like. Yeah. Like, Liam Hicks at catcher is, like, nobody was thinking about Jake Bowers. I mean, yeah, Jake Bowers was,
Speaker 5like, not even a sleeper. You know, like, that was just. We were. I remember us
Speaker 6on this podcast being frustrated early in the season because Jake Bowers was taking at bats for Andrew Vaughn.
Speaker 5Oh, yeah. And look. I don't even know if he was drafted in any of the only leagues, to be honest. No, I think his ADP was, like, 700. In leagues that went, like, that deep. It was. Yeah. Yeah. It was completely off the board. And awesome season for all of them. I think. Well, I'm sure we'll get into a bunch of these guys a little later. Yeah. But I think both Burleson and Garcia, I think especially Garcia, stand out as guys I definitely expect to be worse in 2027 than they were in 2026. Mostly because both of them just had, like, weird. Weird, unsustainable outlier RBI totals for what they actually did. Mm-hmm. I've mentioned it before, but Alec Burleson having, like, a 500 OPS against lefties and 43 R, I think he was second in the majors in RBI against lefties, is just one of the most confusing numbers I can remember seeing in a long time. I just. I don't understand how that happened.
Speaker 3Yeah. It helps that he puts the ball in play so much, but even when you dig. It's like. The Cardinals. The lineup was not great either, right?
Speaker 5No, yeah. It wasn't a good lineup.
Speaker 3It was average at best. Yeah. Yeah. So, we'll get into those guys. They all finished top 12, so we'll break them down. Big thanks to everyone watching live or on demand. Make sure to hit that like button. Again, if you're watching on YouTube, we do appreciate it. Let's take a break. When we return, we'll break down the top 12 finishers at first base. We'll do that right after this.
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Speaker 3Download today. The top 12 first basemen in 2026. This is according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, and they measure it based on the 5x5 Roto categories. I will also mention total fantasy points, fantasy points per game. For those of you who don't know, this is a game for those who play in points leagues. And once again, if you're watching on YouTube, we've got some pretty nice graphics to accompany us here. And the number one first baseman in 2026. First baseman, kind of, was Ben Rice. The breakout was fulfilled. He no longer has catcher eligibility. He provided $39 of Roto value, which was boosted because he had catcher eligibility. So I think he actually ranked like second or third, if you just think his full production this season. But he was third in total fantasy points at first base. 3.4 fantasy points per game was tied for second. 41 homers, 200 runs plus RBI. I do wonder if there's another step, if Judge is healthy for all of next season. This could have just been, whatever, random noise, the time of the season. But if you look at Ben Rice's numbers before Aaron Judge got hurt, it was a 1030 OPS after Judge got hurt and 821 OPS. So I'm just wondering aloud if maybe there is another step if Aaron Judge is in the lineup all season for Ben Rice.
Speaker 6Yeah, I think it's fair to, I think it's fair to come away from this season thinking both, oh, Ben Rice just had the best season he'll ever have because it was such an incredible season and he's already in his late 20s. But I also think it's fair to come away thinking, you know, he may have left a little bit of meat on the bone here because we have seen him just last year deliver a significantly lower strikeout rate than he did in 2026. You know, 2025 was significantly lower and a better polarity in 2025 than he had in 2026, both by multiple percentage points. It wasn't a small difference, him taking a step back in those areas in 2026. Now you could argue he took a step back because he was facing more left-handers and he's not as good against left-handers. Maybe, but even so, the difference was so big and like these, obviously baseball players aren't machines that just have a precise duplicate number. If you duplicate the same circumstances, they're going to duplicate the same results. Like I think we've seen better from Rice in both of those critical areas. Like the difference is big enough that I could see him gaining ground in those areas in a full season, even facing left-handers regularly and possibly raising, the batting average, possibly delivering even a few more home runs. I think he's going to be an early round mainstay for at least the next three or four years.
Speaker 5I think that's possible. Maybe even likely. I've seen him, I think Frank, you did a draft where Ben Rice was a first round pick. I can't get on board with that. Yeah, he went and picked number 12 in this. I think he's a lot, a lot closer to the last pick of the second round than the last pick of the first round. But I can see another 40 homer season. I wouldn't bet on it. It's really hard to do 40 homers, 40 homer seasons in a row. That's not something many players have done in major league history and you should probably bet against it. But he's clearly a very talented hitter. He's clearly a very good hitter. I just, I do think it is worth pausing on. He's the number one first baseman. If you look at any, if you look at any rating system that accounts for the positions, but just based on the production, like you said, he was third. Pete Alonzo was kind of significantly more productive. That mostly comes down to just the RBI gap between the two of them. But Ben Rice was a $39 player on the player rater. If you take out the positional adjustment and just look at the production, he was a $17 player and Pete Alonzo was a $22 player, 2140. So, so, pretty big difference there. I think Rice is in the discussion for the number one first baseman spot. I will not be ranking him that way. Scott, I don't think you're ranking him that way. I originally did.
Speaker 6I originally did. He, he now ranks fourth for me. I think one through five are all very close. It's very close. I agree. They're basically late second rounders slash early third rounders.
Speaker 5But I do think like comparing Ben Rice to Pete Alonzo, Rice has the age on him for sure. Alonzo is what, 31 and Rice is going to be 28. So he's, you know, it's also just possible that from the aging curves perspective, we've seen the peak Ben Rice season. Like that wouldn't be shocking if he had his best season at 27. But like, it's kind of Pete Alonzo and Ben Rice, pretty similar players. Maybe Ben Rice a little better bet for batting average. Alonzo's got the much longer track record. Yeah. I will rank Rice ahead of Alonzo, but I don't think there should be a big gap between the two of them. And I think in a lot of cases, in a lot of drafts, there probably will be like a round gap between them.
Speaker 3Mm-hmm. I think that's all fair. I think if nothing else, even if you don't think Ben Rice will get better, I think he's just kind of cemented himself into this, you know, four category stud type of production. The batting average won't be hugely impactful, but I don't think it's going to hurt you either. I think he's kind of in this like Pete Alonzo, Matt Olson type of expectation going into next season. But perhaps could even build off of that if Aaron Judge is healthy for the whole year. The number two first baseman was Pete Alonzo. New team, same Alonzo, slow start, but from May on, he was his usual self. He provided $32.7 of Roto value, second in total fantasy points, 3.4 fantasy points per game was tied for second. And he has now maintained big jumps in quality of contact two years in a row. And Chris, he's just extremely consistent. I know when we were talking about, you know, his contract and his free agency a couple of years ago, the bet is he probably won't age very well, but we don't have any sign of decline yet. I mean, maybe year four, three, four, five of that contract, but we don't see any sign of that yet.
Speaker 5Yeah. And it looked like we were seeing some signs of that in his late 20s. You know, he hit 217 in 2023 and only 240 in 2024. The power was a little lower in 2024 as well. It seemed like there were maybe some declining skills there, but like you said, the quality of contact just got way better in 2025 and he sustained all of that in 2026. So I think it's, you know, you have to account for some risk for a 32-year-old first baseman, but generally speaking, I think it's full steam ahead with Pete Alonso.
Speaker 6So, in addition to the quality of the contact quality improving over the last two years, the pull air rate has lowered. He's hit the ball the opposite way. Which, of course, can adversely affect power. We normally don't like to see pull rates trending that way, but when he's hitting the ball as hard as he does, he's obviously still able to generate 40 home runs with that kind of spray angle. It's turned him into a batting average asset. Yeah, a much better all-around hitter. He hit 217. He hit 267 in 2026. He hit 272 in 2025. And he underperformed his expected batting average both years. His expecting batting average in 2026, Pete Alonso, was 285. It was 94th percentile. Expected average. And it makes sense because the guy doesn't strike out at an alarming rate. It was 24% this year. It was even lower last year. I'm not saying you should draft Pete Alonso for batting average, but I don't think you should think of him as a liability in that category. And one thing
Speaker 5that I think is worth pausing on, I know we want to move fairly quickly, but we talk a lot about that pulled error rate and how important that is. That is, there is no one weird trick that makes every hitter good. There's no one weird trick that works for every single hitter. And everything you do in baseball comes with trade-offs. And so, what you see with a lot of guys with the pulled error rate is that tends to come with a ton of pop-ups. And infield fly balls, however you want to categorize them because you're just, you're trying so hard to get the ball in the air, you're going to get out in front of a bunch of balls. And infield fly balls are nothing. Like, they're just, they are the worst thing you can do as a hitter. And so, Pete Alonso went from hitting about 10 to 12% of his batted balls as infield fly balls heading into 2025 to 7.6% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026. And I think that's a lot of the improvements that he's made. And like you said, Scott, he is the kind of hitter who does not need to sell out for power. We all remember the home runoff Devin Williams in the 2024 playoffs. That was poked out to right field. He has that kind of power and it's easy for him. And he always has. So, that is, this is not an Isak Paredes situation. He does not have to sell out for power and I think it's made him a better hitter for it.
Speaker 3Yeah. And I'm happy you mentioned that home run against Devin Williams because, in the offseason following that home run, he talked about adjustments that he made late in the 2024 season that allowed him to do things like that. Hit that home run off of Devin Williams and obviously, those changes that he made have carried over the past couple of years. So, yeah, Pete Alonso, just as safe as they come. The number three first baseman this past season, also going to rank very highly at third base, was Miguel Vargas. Massive breakout. He does have first and third base eligibility for next season. Provided 28% $28.3 of Roto value, he was first in total fantasy points at both first and third base, 3.6 fantasy points per game, also first at both positions, hit 250, 363 on base, 33 homers, 22 steals, 200 runs plus RBI, massive jump in bat speed, quality of contact, pulled air rate, the only downside, and I definitely could be nitpicking and overreacting, you guys could tell me, could be falling into like that PCA trap from last year. His stat cast data did take a sizable step back in the second half. His overall numbers didn't really, the surface level stats, but if you look at the quality of contact, the barrel rates, the expected stats, everything took a step back in the second half. I don't want to overvalue that or overrate that too much because I think it was an awesome, awesome season all around, but it was just one negative that I saw in his profile.
Speaker 6Yeah, that's true, but his second half average bat, his bat speed was 73.6 miles per hour. Last year, it was 70.6. So even the bad half in terms of Miguel Vargas' bat speed was three miles per hour higher than previous iterations of him. So that's genuine improvement. I feel like he was overall the biggest gainer in bat speed in 2026. And he had a huge pull air rate too. Yeah. It was never bad. That's how he was able to get to what power he did previously, but you combined now big exit velocities with a big pull air rate and you got a legit power hitter on your hands. One who also has terrific plate discipline and is fast enough to steal bases and clearly has some inclination to do that seeing as he stole 22 this past year. So I went into, I'm going through my ranking process now. That's what I spend, most of October doing is ranking for the next season. I went into that process thinking, I'm going to fade Miguel Vargas probably because the whole one hit wonder of it all is going to make me squeamish. But the data set, it won me over. That's the only knock against him
Speaker 5is that he hasn't done it more than once.
Speaker 6Right. I think it's legit. He's going to be my number two first baseman for next year, primarily because he's eligible third base, a much weaker position. But even so, he's part of that group that needs to go end of round two or early in round three.
Speaker 3Yeah. And he is a player, like if you want to remain consistent, you know, obviously we hyped up Ben Rice and we're very excited about what he just did. And we just talked about him glowingly. Like Ben Rice has only done it for one full season as well. So, and these guys were, and Vargas was actually a higher ranked prospect when they were both prospects at the time. So it just took a little bit longer for Vargas. Sometimes that happens with top prospects. But eventually, we figured it out and it looks pretty legit here.
Speaker 6I do think Rice is different because like we saw the signs for Rice pretty clearly. Obviously he was one of the trendiest breakout picks. Somebody who got pushed too high in the rankings for a lot of people's tastes because of the excitement over him heading into 2026. There was no excitement for Miguel Vargas. Like we had, we had written him off a couple of years earlier. We had written him off for being a real fantasy asset.
Speaker 3Yeah. And it is hard to project the biggest jump in bat speed year over year, right? Yeah. I feel like we've talked about this, but like, is there a way to find this out during spring training next year? That could be an indicator.
Speaker 5Yeah. I'm not sure if bat speed data is available in spring training, unfortunately.
Speaker 3Because that could be helpful to identifying, you know, breakouts for the following season.
Speaker 5The thing that's so tough is, yeah, he added three miles per hour in bat speed. He only ever added 0.4 miles per hour to his average exit velocity, which is weird. He pulled the ball in the air even more last year. I think the biggest thing is that he went from 10% walk rate, which is awesome, to 14% without his strikeout rate going up. I've said it a couple times since the end of the season, but that is so hard to do. It is so hard to spike your walk rate that way without an increase in strikeout rate. Because I think Ben Rice had a big walk rate increase as well, but it also came along with more strikeouts. A strikeout rate increase. Yeah. Which is what you should typically expect. Yeah. And that was not the case for Vargas, and it might just be that bat speed allowed him to make his decisions just a hundredth of a second later, and that could be all the difference.
Speaker 3Yeah. His plate discipline is truly, truly amazing. So I think Vargas really good in both formats, but could be even better in a points league just because of that standout plate discipline. If he is a name that's going at the 2-3 turn in most drafts for next season, would you guys, be interested in drafting Miguel Vargas at that point?
Speaker 6I have him on the front half of that turn. I agree. Yeah.
Speaker 3In this early mock draft that I'm doing, I had the third pick, and I took him in the third round. So that is pick 27. Yeah, I've seen a couple of drafts
Speaker 5where he's finished, like he's dropped to like the third round, and that feels great. That'd be, I'd do that every time.
Speaker 3Yeah. The number four first baseman was Sal Stewart, who also has first base and third base eligibility for next season. Massive rookie season. Personally, I think he'll win National League Rookie of the Year, but many people believe Carson Bench should win that. I guess if you just, if you subscribe to War, like I totally get that. Carson Bench was much higher in that category. $27.7 of Roto value here for Sal Stewart. He was seventh in total fantasy points at first base. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. That was a tied for seventh at the position. He hit 263, 32 homers, 112 RBI, 15 steals as a 22 year old. So, so impressive. The underlying stack has stuff is solid. It's not spectacular, but Scott, it's, it's just hard to argue with what he just did again as a 22 year old.
Speaker 6Yeah. So he's, he's kind of the opposite case of Miguel Vargas, where I, I assumed I'd be fully on board with Stewart. Like I wouldn't be fading him at all. And I came away underwhelmed, but, by the data set. And even like the percentages, meaning like what he slugged. 787 OPS is. Yeah. Even they were like, well, that's, that's not what I would expect for a player who was as impactful as Sal Stewart this past year. So it's, he was, he was an accumulator, a big accumulator. I mean, 32 home runs, 112 RBIs. That's some serious accumulation, but you wouldn't expect that from the percentages.
Speaker 4Yeah. So that,
Speaker 6that makes me a little leery of him, but at the same time, you brought it up, Frank, the age 22, a guy who does this as a 22 year old rookie probably has a pretty bright future. And, and specifically, I see him as being someone who could potentially gain a batting average moving forward. He was a better line drive hitter in the minors. He was a better play, light discipline guy in the minors. That's actually what he stood out for more in the minors than the power. I also think the fact he hit 32 home runs with an underwhelming pull rate bodes well if he gains in that area as many second year players do. So I, I think there's room for improvement for Sal Stewart. I'm not banking on it. I do think a step back is very possible. Ultimately, I've decided I like Vargas more for next year, but Stewart's going to be drafted. In the same range. And you still love the third base eligibility there.
Speaker 3All right, let's take our final break. When we return back into our first base recap, we'll do that right after this delivered
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Speaker 3Welcome back fantasy baseball today. Recapping the first base position, the top 12 finishers from this past season. And number five was Alec Burleson. Another one with a big breakout. He led MLB with 116 RBI, $26 of Roto value, fifth, total fantasy points at first base, three.1 fantasy points per game was tied for 7th. He wound up hitting.279. He had 26 home runs. He had that big RBI total. Continues to improve every year. He hit the ball harder. Improved his bat speed. You have to imagine the RBI comes down just like natural regression. He also took a big step back against left-handed pitching. But Chris, I kind of feel like Alec Burleson has cemented himself as maybe not one of the elite first basemen, but a very strong starting first base.
Speaker 5Option. Yes. I think top 10, top 12 first basemen, sure. I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as he was last season. That kind of goes without saying for a guy who had what, 40 more RBI than he ever had before in. It's 38 more RBI than in 2024, which was his previous career high, in 75 more plate appearances. Like, partially it's more playing time, but it's mostly just that he had a 731 OPS with the bases empty and he had a 930-something OPS with runners in scoring position. I'm not saying that's a total fluke. High contact players generally do perform better in runners on base situations. You know, a little hit them where they ain't kind of situation, but I would probably set the over-under on you. His RBI for 2027 at 89.5. And I just. The overall profile is pretty good, but not elite. And I don't know. He doesn't have a ton of. Like, if he drops back down to being more like a 20-homer guy, I think it could be a little underwhelming. I don't think the floor is super low. I think Alec Burleson's likely to be a solid starter, but I do want to caution against taking his 2026 at face value just because he is older. The underlying data is good, but not great. I don't know. I think he's more likely to disappoint than not in 2027.
Speaker 6I think the underlying data is pretty good. He actually underperformed both his expected batting average and especially his expected slug. He underperformed that by like 50 points, so it's not hard to imagine him adding another five home runs next year. Alec Burleson, which may account for the decline in RBI, it may help to counteract directly the decline in RBI that you're talking about. I am. I say that and I'm not. I don't think I'm bullish on him. I think I'm ranking him lower than you guys even for next year. I have him 12th at first base.
Speaker 3Why do you hate Alec Burleson, Scott?
Speaker 6Well, I'll tell you why. Not that I hate him, but why I only rank him 12th even though I see potential. potential for improvement here. And that's because you look at his splits. He cannot hit lefties. Cannot hit lefties and really struggles to hit at home, too. Which isn't that surprising. So, those are some albatross. a couple of albatrosses there that are going to continue to weigh down Burleson. I think make it unlikely that he can meet his best case scenario, even though I think a better scenario does exist, for him. And because he hasn't proven it over and over again that he can be this absolute masher for fantasy, and because so many other first basemen have that we haven't talked about yet, I'm inclined to rank him on the lower end for next year.
Speaker 5Would it be Albatry?
Speaker 6Not albatrosses? Albatry?
Speaker 3It's a fair question. I think he should be behind the mainstays at the position. We're getting to some of those coming up here. But yeah, still as someone in that 10-12th, 12th range at first base, he actually was adequate against lefties in 2025, had a 7.08 OPS, but that was the outlier for his career. It is a 5.83 OPS against lefties. And he actually sat against 10 lefties this season. He did come in in those games later on as a pinch hitter. But yeah, it just kind of holds back the ceiling a little bit there for Alec Burleson. Scott, to your point about underperforming his ex-slug, according to StatCast, he had 26 actual home runs. His expected home runs, 31.3. But that's the case for his whole career.
Speaker 5He has underperformed his ex-slug by about 40 points for his career.
Speaker 6Yeah. Though he did have a much better polarity this year, which would make it less likely that he'd underperform his expected slug. He's never actually
Speaker 3underperformed his expected home run total, though. This is the first time he did that.
Speaker 5I think once you get to 2200 plate appearances with that, there's probably some noise or some signal there. I don't know if it's everything, but I think there's something to him underperforming.
Speaker 6By the way, there are two accepted plural forms of albatross. One is albatrosses, and one is just albatross, like deer or fish. Alright. There you go.
Speaker 3Learn something new every day. The number six first baseman was Matt Olsen, one of the mainstays at the position. $25 worth of Roto value. Sixth in total fantasy points. 3.1 fantasy points per game was tied for seventh. Hit 251, 41 home ers, 99 runs, 93 RBI. Big jump in the home run output from 29 the year prior to 41 this past season. He did take a step back in the second half, but when you dig in, StatCast stuff was mostly fine in that second half. I think he was mostly just unlucky. And he has played every game for the past five years. That is insane. Like, unmatched by anybody, although Pete Alonzo plays a lot as well. But Matt Olsen, man, has not missed a game in five years. I think that just helps create a very, very high floor for Matt Olsen year in and year out.
Speaker 5Yeah. Yeah. I think the ceiling kind of fluctuates. You know, we've gone 34, 54, 29, 29, 41 for the home run total. So it's always a lot. It's just a question of, is it a lot or is it a ton? You know, to get scientific. And I think he's just rock solid. There is a part of me that wonders at some point, does playing every single day, including when you're banged up, at some point, does that catch up to a soon-to-be 33-year-old? He'll be 33, like, five days after the projected opening day. Maybe he'll be 33 by actual opening day. But that's just in the back of the mind. But I don't think you should factor that in. I think it's just, you know, maybe a three percentage point is kind of thing when you're comparing him to another player. Like, if you view him as basically the same as Pete Alonzo, and I think Pete Alonzo probably, you know, maybe gets an edge there, but for the sake of argument, you know, maybe there's just a little bit of risk factor with his age, given all the tread on the tires. Although, this is something people talk about with football all the time, with running backs. People, you will always, you will always see, oh, he got a lot of carries in college. That's a bad sign for him in the NFL. And I don't think that's actually true. Because the ability to get those carries, the ability to play those games, the 162 games, is a skill in and of itself. And we are seeing that skill play out with Matt Olson. So, like I said, it's a very small factor in how you should view him.
Speaker 6I do think a slight gap has opened up between him and Pete Alonzo. Yes. Though, and you mentioned it, for several years there, it was like, okay, it's a coin flip. Who has the better year? So, just go with the one who's going later. I think Matt Olson could potentially deliver a 270-280 batting average like I think Pete Alonzo will. Does it every other year? Yeah. It's more random in Olson's case. In Alonzo's case, I think we've seen actual improvements to make it more likely that he's a help in batting average rather than a
Speaker 3entrance. Yeah. I think my expectation going in would probably be 15-20 points of batting average between Pete Alonzo and Matt Olson. Obviously, that can change, but just, you know, if we're talking about median projections and expectations for those guys. Up next, the number 7 first baseman was Rafael Devers, who had a very slow start, but from May on, he was Rafael Devers. $22 of Roto value, 10th in total fantasy points, 3.2 fantasy points per game, was tied for 5th, and he hit 258, 37 home runs, 98 RBI, 865 OPS. He was scorching to end the season, but wound up having core muscle surgery on September 15th. Just how hot was he? In September, he had 7 home runs and a 1457 OPS and only 10 games played. And I'm just, I'm annoyed because he was very clearly going to get to a career high in home runs, and he was going to hit 40 home runs while being an everyday player in San Francisco. Those things were just going to happen, as hot as he was, and I'm just annoyed that he couldn't get there, but nonetheless, he had an awesome season after a slow start, but Scott, similar to the way, like, once you dug in on Sal Stewart, you know, I dug in here on Devers, and I don't know, it's like bat speed trending down, he took a huge step back against lefties, he overperformed the expected stats quite a bit, but he's also Rafael Devers, who's just done it for so long, so I don't know if we should over to overthink those things. -
Speaker 6Yeah. You'll remember I was pretty much out on him around mid-season, around the time he turned things around. I was saying he was just a glorified version of Jake Berger now, an all-or-nothing slugger who's going to hurt you in batting average. No, I said it, Frank. You act surprised. You weren't listening to me, I guess, at the time I said it. I said it. I can't take it back. I don't know. Maybe I could have gotten away with it because you didn't remember I said it. But anyway, I'm saying it again. But I don't believe it now because he did have such an extreme turnaround. And just refreshing my memory here, a lot of it had to do with shortening his swing. He made some mechanical changes, and you saw the strikeout rate get back to where it was when he was at his best in Boston. And over the final three months, he ended up hitting.281 with 22 homers. But the strikeout rate, it was like 20% during that time when it was closer to 30% previously. So I think it was a legitimate change. He got to the bottom of what had been ailing him for the previous calendar year. And I don't think he's that different from Matt Olson or Pete Alonso. I do rank him behind both because he has kind of taken us for this rollercoaster. But if he comes at any sort of discount, I'd be happy to invest in Devers instead of either of those two.
Speaker 3All right. Moving on to the number eight first baseman. That was Bryce Harper, who played 162 games for the first time in his career. And he had himself a fine season, $21.6 of Roto value, fourth in total fantasy points. He hit.269 with a.380 on base. 29 homers. 93 runs. 87 RBI. 7 steals. The average EV came down. But his other stat cast data has been eerily similar the past three years. And Chris, one thing that stands out, like Harper's fine. But he oddly provides lower counting stats than you would expect from the other mainstays at the position. And I don't know why we would expect that to change. We have a pretty long track record of the counting stats just being a little bit underwhelming for Bryce Harper.
Speaker 5Yeah. I mean, in the past, that's usually been because there's like an IL stint in there. And then he plays 162 games this year and doesn't get to either 95 runs or 95 RBI. And that's a little frustrating. I think that's a small nit to pick. I think the biggest one is just he's going to be 34 or he is 34. And that's going to, you know, at some point he's going to slow down for real. But it hasn't really happened. Like you said, the numbers have been pretty similar. Yeah. Pretty similar. He's a very solid first baseman. One nice thing is he is outfield eligible. Yeah. I don't think we mentioned him earlier. And that I think you're probably more likely to use Bryce Harper in the outfield than a first base, given the the respect the depths at both positions. So fair. I do rank him behind Devers and Olson and Alonzo.
Speaker 3I think the ceiling is not as high. I think the ceiling is not as high as those guys. He's right. But he hasn't
Speaker 5had the big home run totals. Like he hasn't had more than 30 homers since 2021. He hasn't had 40 homers since 2015. Actually, he hasn't had. He's only had 135 homer season since then. Kind of amazing in the last decade. But he's awesome. He steals a few more bases than most of the other first basemen. It's not a big total, but it's not nothing either. Yeah, I think he's a relatively low ceiling option. But given the outfield eligibility. He'll go right around these guys.
Speaker 6Also, probably worth mentioning that. Yes, Harper should be behind Alonzo Olson and Devers in Roto and points leagues. I actually behind have him ahead of Olson and Devers because better play is superior in terms of plate discipline. In fact, in it, he lead the majors and he led the NL and walks in 2026. Bryce Harper with 107.
Speaker 3Yeah, 15% walk rate has highest since 2021. So massive. Walk rate, massive OBP there for Bryce Harper. Number nine at first base was Yandy Diaz, who no longer has first base eligibility. He is util only for next season. He did not play a single game at first base, but has been one of the most profitable hitters in fantasy over the past four years. Provided $21.4 of Roto value. He was ninth in total fantasy points, 3.1 fantasy points per game. Pretty consistently a good batting average around 20 home runs. Solid counting stats. Some things you can nitpick here. He is getting up there. He is 35 years old. His average EV dropped just over two miles per hour year over year. And he took a big step back against fastballs, which is something you worry about for an aging player. I know he has a vesting option with the Rays. He has to pass the physical. Yeah, he vested. Yeah. My guess is he'll be back. But I guess with Tampa, you can never rule out them trading a guy. Like the last year of his contract. But, you know, he's been so consistent with Tampa. I'd rather him just stay there. But, yeah, I am worried a little bit about, you know, the age and some of those other things that came with that.
Speaker 5A little bit. I think the biggest mark against him is the DH only eligibility. But given how underpriced he's been pretty much every year, I don't think it's it's really hard to come up with an argument against drafting. Yandy Diaz at whatever the cost might be. You know, if it. Really, like, is he going to go inside the top 100?
Speaker 3I'll let you know that we are at pick 101 in this mock draft and Yandy Diaz has not been drafted.
Speaker 5Yeah, I kind of think he's not going to be a top 100 pick. And he I guess it's hard to make the fit with DH only. But I kind of think he just should be a top 100 pick. So I think he's going to be a nice value no matter where it ends up being. Scott, anything on here on Yandy or we keep it moving?
Speaker 6The decline concerns me. A little bit. But I think he'll be even more heavily discounted because of the DH only status. And that will probably be enough for me to get on board with whatever the price ends up being.
Speaker 5Like on the merits, there's not that much difference between him and Bryce Harper. You get a little bit more power with Harper, but much better batting average. Yeah. I just see
Speaker 6clear signs of decline with Yandy. That's the main thing.
Speaker 3There's like eight years worth of difference here. But if you compare him and Vlad Jr. They're actually very similar. Very similar types of players. Yeah. Yeah. Moving on. The number 10 first baseman. Massive breakout year. A contract year for the ages here for Jake Bowers, who has first base and outfield eligibility for next year. He is he was picked up as a free agent in basically all leagues this past season. He will be a free agent in real life baseball this offseason as well. He provided right around $21 of Roto value. He was 12th in total fantasy points. 3.1 fantasy points per game. He hit 266, 389 on base, 26 homers, 93 runs, 86 RBI, 11 steals, huge walk rate and OBP, big jump in bat speed from 2024 to 2025. And then he maintained all of that this year. He hits the ball hard. All the stack cast stuff looks great, but career 211 batting average and 672 OPS before 2026. So. How much do we trust it? I mean, he's an
Speaker 6age 30 breakout. That's this is hard.
Speaker 3Yeah, it is hard.
Speaker 6It is hard because the data is genuinely impressive. There's a lot of red on that stat cast page. He demolished lefties to
Speaker 5901 OPS against lefties.
Speaker 6Yeah. But as you pointed out, Frank, the biggest jump in terms of the data actually happened last year in 2025. And so why was it not reflected as much in the performance as 2025? I think there's an even bigger concern than that, though, and it's that he's a free agent. If the Brewers bring him back, great. I'll feel I'll feel pretty good about Jake Bowers heading into 2027, but they are the Brewers and he does just have a monster season. So I imagine it's not going to be the Brewers, you
Speaker 5know, and they have Vaughn and they have Andrew Fisher and they've got options to let him walk. Yeah, right. So I.
Speaker 6I want to like. Jake Bowers like this is a profile I generally love. It's just the baggage of the delayed age 30 breakout and the free agency and the unknowns that come with that. The possibility that he ends up being more of a platoon player wherever he goes. That's still on the table. Yeah. He's only 17th at first base for me, at least in Roto. Now, Bowers is going to be a better points league player because he walks so much. So he comes in 15th there. But. Either way, it's not 10th, you know, like his actual finish.
Speaker 3I would say he is probably one of a handful of players that I am most interested to see where the ADP winds up for next season, because I I genuinely have no idea. You could tell me he's around a top 100 pick. You could tell me it's closer to 200. I think the range is is extremely wide here for where Jake Bowers can be drafted next season.
Speaker 5So I'm going to say. And. It's not implying what but you might think it's implying. I think it's going to be similar to Jerickson Profar's breakout season, which ended up being about 150-ish in ADP. Similar point in his career, pretty similar breakout. Bauer's plate discipline was better, but the underlying numbers were there in both cases. I think he ends up right around 150 would be my guess.
Speaker 6For what it's worth, I do have, I just said Bauer's the 17th for me in Roto at first base, 29th in the outfield. I think I cross-referenced the players who are behind Bauer's for me at first base to make sure similar players aren't ahead of him for me in the outfield or vice versa. Part of that, it's the depth at first base that pushes him that far down the rankings. If he is a top 30 outfielder, if he's drafted that way, like my rankings have it, then it's hard to imagine he'd go as late as 150.
Speaker 3All right, number 11.
Speaker 6The 30th outfielder doesn't usually go that late.
Speaker 5I could look it up while Frank talks.
Speaker 3Yeah, I don't think it does. I think the 30th outfielder is probably. Usually around 125. Yeah, I was going to say 125.
Speaker 6That sounds just off the cuff. That's more where I would expect Bauer's to go next year.
Speaker 3Number 11 at first base was Luis Garcia Jr. Also had himself a big breakout with an approach change, provided $18.8 of Roto value, tied for 17th in total fantasy points, 2.8 fantasy points per game. He does take quite a hit in head-to-head points versus Roto. He's much better in the Roto format. Hit.277 with 30 home runs, 92 RBI, 830 OPS, posted career highs across the board in StatCast data, big jump in bat speed, and pulled fly balls. But he took a step back after joining the Yankees in early August, Vietorra. That's the first time he's made a trade this past season. I'm currently of two mindsets right now, which is kind of the coward's way right now with Luis Garcia. But I think the more likely outcome is that he goes back to the player he was with the Nationals prior to this season. I also think there's a chance that in a contract year, if he can maintain the gains from the first half of the season, he could just go nuclear as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium. So I could see both scenarios playing out here for Luis Garcia.
Speaker 5I think he's probably the clearest fade of any player we've talked about so far. Just a strict platoon player who just put up bonkers RBI numbers in a way that you probably can't replicate. 92 RBI in 543 plate appearances. That just doesn't seem sustainable. And also, if you remember the shape of his season, it was like. Kind of three incredible months. Right in the middle. June, July, and August, he was unbelievable. Outside of those three months, he was pretty pedestrian. I guess he was okay in May, but it was, you know. Like, it's really the three months that stand out. And that's kind of for his whole career. And if I thought there was a chance he might get first or third base, or second or third base eligibility, which I know there was a mention, I think, in the press conference today that maybe. Garcia could play some second base for the Yankees. Yeah. Boy, I think that's a really bad idea. I think that would be a really, really bad idea for them. Yeah. It's not like they value defense if you watch a play. Well, and, like, look, the way their roster's built, it's either that or, you know, Ben Rice is your full-time DH and you lose the flexibility. So if he can handle second base, I think it makes perfect sense. I just think it's a bad idea.
Speaker 6Plus, Stanton's still around, right? I think they're buying him out. Well, I think it makes sense. It's a star-given Aaron Judge, more DH at-bats.
Speaker 3Yeah. I mean, find a team that. There's no team that can find and develop DHs quite like the Yankees, man. Like, they. Every year, they can find guys that can hit. They just all should be DHs. It's so crazy.
Speaker 5And I also think, you know, we talk a lot about, like, the Yiner Diaz, Michael Harris, Jackson Merrill profiles who just have that inherent. Volatility because of their terrible plate discipline. Yeah. Luis Garcia's got really bad plate discipline. Now, he doesn't strike out much. He makes a ton of contact, but he swings at everything. He never walks. And so I just. I think he got really hot for a couple months and it was awesome. He was great. But I think of every player we've talked about, he is, I think, the clearest candidate to regress hard in 2027.
Speaker 3Him versus Jake Bowers, I think, is an interesting conversation. Scott, who do you have higher, Jake Bowers or Garcia?
Speaker 6For Roto, I do have Garcia higher. Subject to change, depending on where Bowers signs. I want to put Bowers higher. I have Bowers higher. I guess I buy into what Garcia did a little more because it followed a more typical trajectory and there was the big exit velocity. Or not exit velocity. Well, I suppose there was exit velocity, but the big bat speed increase fueled it. But there are clear limitations with him. Like, he doesn't play against left-handers as much as the Yankees can help it. So that does put a pretty hard cap on his ceiling.
Speaker 3The last name we'll talk about here today, at number 12 at first base, was Jack Caglione. He does have first base and outfield eligibility for next year. Big step forward this season. Provided $15.50 of Roto value. 28th in total fantasy points. 2.7 fantasy points per game. He is another name much better in Roto. than he is in head-to-head points leagues. Hit.289, 23 homers, 7 steals, 834 OPS. He got off to a slow start, and then he turned things up from June on. Massive jumps in quality of contact. He improved against non-fastballs. And, Scott, I think everybody is expecting Jack Caglione to get even better next season in his age 24 season.
Speaker 6Yeah, yeah. I mean, he was pretty monstrous from June 1st on. I mean, you mentioned he's not a great points league player. From June 1st on, 3.31 points per game, which was basically what Pete Alonzo did for the season. It was actually a little better than what Nick Kurtz did, points per game. Jack Caglione from June 1st on. So, I think he has, I think he has number one overall type upside at this position. There are still. Okay, at the position, okay. Yeah, number one overall at first base. I guess overall, I should leave it at. He has number one. Upside at first base, Jack Caglione. There are launch angle issues that are likely to prevent him from reaching that, at least in the short term. But I think, otherwise, the data looks an awful lot like Nick Kurtz, who, in my mind, is the actual number one at first base still. I think Caglione is going to have to break out on top of the breakout he just had next year. And, in fact, I rank him. I rank him 10th at the position for 2027.
Speaker 5We're not writing sleepers, breakouts, and busts until, what, January, probably, is when we do that, right? Yeah. Go ahead and write it now for all three of us. Jack Caglione. Yeah. Breakouts, call him. Might as well just put Bryce Eldridge in there, too. Clean sweep. Jack Caglione, Bryce Eldridge, going to be on all of them, I think.
Speaker 6Eldridge is 11th for me next year. Caglione 10th, Eldridge 11th. Hard to separate them.
Speaker 5Every single fantasy analyst is going to have Jack Caglione as a breakout. I think in a previous podcast, I called Leo Bernal your favorite fantasy analyst's favorite breakout pick at catcher. Jack Caglione is your favorite fantasy analyst's breakout pick at first base. Or he's going to be outfield eligible, right? Yes. Yes. Yeah.
Speaker 3Yes. First base and outfield.
Speaker 5Go ahead and write that one in now. You can get ahead of your writing for the winter if you got some free time, because that's going to be on every list.
Speaker 617th for me in outfield.
Speaker 3Caglione. Love it. Love it. Love the aggressiveness there. And we are going to wrap there. If you want to check out our first base rankings, these guys have both put out articles on the website. Way too early. 2027 first base ranks. We will also discuss it on our FBT Express episode. So make sure to check that out. And we will wrap there for Scott. Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back. In next week.
Speaker 4Bye bye. Paramount Podcasts.
Speaker 12College football season is Modelo season. There's nothing quite like a college football Saturday. The fight songs, the rivalries, the traditions passed down from one generation of fans to the next. And of course, they're settling in for a full day of football with Chris Modelo. Because Saturdays are for the gridiron and Cervasus. College football is built on tradition. And no one knows tradition like Modelo. From the fan quakes that shake the stadium to the rivalry trophies that mean everything year after year. These traditions are what makes Saturday special. So if you're listening to this, consider it your sign. Grab a Chris Modelo, settle in and enjoy a full day of college football. Because it's just not game day. It's tradition. And those who keep college football tradition. alive deserve a Modelo. Modelo is the official beer sponsor. of the college football playoff. Drink responsibly. Modelo Especial beer, imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, Illinois.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. T-Mobile and MLB have introduced the ABS Challenge system, powered by T-Mobile's network, across all 29 U.S. ballparks to deliver real-time precision and accuracy.
  2. The podcast episode focuses on a first base position recap for the 2026 fantasy baseball season, analyzing the top 12 finishers according to the Fangraphs Player Rater.
  3. First base was an exceptionally deep position in 2026, with 11 players providing $20 or more of Roto value compared to just three the prior year.
  4. Ben Rice finished as the top first baseman with $39 of Roto value, 41 homers, and strong production, though his ranking is debated due to his late-20s age and potential to have peaked.
  5. Pete Alonso ranked second with $32.7 of Roto value, showing two years of improved quality of contact, reduced infield fly balls, and better batting average.
  6. Miguel Vargas was the biggest breakout at the position, delivering $28.3 of Roto value with 33 homers, 22 steals, and a massive jump in bat speed.
  7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the biggest bust, finishing 221st overall despite a second-round ADP, largely due to injuries and declining StatCast metrics.
  8. Jake Bowers, an age-30 breakout with first base and outfield eligibility, presents high uncertainty due to his delayed emergence and impending free agency.

Summary:

This episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, hosted by Frank Stampfl with Scott White and Chris Towers, recaps the first base position for the 2026 fantasy season. The hosts begin by discussing the World Series matchup between the Brewers and Rays, with picks favoring Milwaukee in six or seven games, and note Freddie Peralta's impressive ALCS MVP performance.

The main segment analyzes the top 12 first basemen according to the Fangraphs Player Rater. The position was historically deep, with 11 players exceeding $20 in Roto value. Ben Rice topped the list with $39 of value and 41 home runs, though his ranking for 2027 is debated given his age and potential peak. Pete Alonso ranked second, showing sustained improvements in contact quality and plate discipline. Miguel Vargas was the biggest breakout, posting 33 homers and 22 steals with a major bat-speed increase. Sal Stewart, Alec Burleson, Matt Olson, Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper, Yandy Diaz, Jake Bowers, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jack Caglione rounded out the top 12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the biggest bust, finishing 221st overall after a second-round ADP, hampered by injuries and declining metrics.

The hosts also debate rankings for next season, emphasizing the depth at first base and the value of multi-position eligibility, particularly third base and outfield. They highlight breakout candidates like Jack Caglione and caution against overvaluing players with unsustainable RBI totals or limited track records.

FAQs

The ABS Challenge is a new real-time precision technology brought to all 29 U.S. MLB ballparks, and it is powered by T-Mobile.

The Brewers are facing the Rays. Frank picked the Brewers in six games, while Scott leaned toward the Brewers in seven.

Ben Rice finished as the number one first baseman, providing $39 of Roto value with 41 home runs and 200 runs plus RBI.

He was a second-round pick but hit just .260 with nine homers and a .688 OPS while battling numerous injuries, including an elbow contusion, back tightness, and a concussion IL stint.

Miguel Vargas was the biggest breakout, finishing third among first basemen with a preseason ADP of 303, hitting .250 with 33 homers and 22 steals.

Eleven first-base-eligible players provided $20 or more of value, versus just three the year before, and 24 names provided at least $10 of value.

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