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2026 Fantasy Football AMA with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield

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2026 Fantasy Football AMA with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield

In this episode of "School of Scott," hosts Brett Whitefield and Scott Barrett discuss the unreliability of NFL beat writers for fantasy football analysis. Scott argues that beat writers, with a few exceptions like Aaron Wilson and Dan Duggan, are often worthless for projections because their incentives are to generate positive content and fill a 24/7 news cycle, not to provide accurate playing-time forecasts. He notes that his rankings would be better off ignoring 97% of beat writers, as they lack expertise in projecting snaps and opportunities—a view Brett has long held. They highlight that beat writers have limited practice access and often hype up meaningless training camp observations, like two-running-back sets, which rarely translate to game usage. The hosts then shift to evaluating the 2024 rookie tight end class, which they deem historically great. Scott asks Brett for his tape-based rankings, and Brett surprises him by naming Harold Fanon Jr. as having the best rookie tape due to his vicious run-after-contact ability and improved route running, despite athleticism concerns. However, Brett predicts Colston Loveland will be the best long-term prospect for his complete skill set. They discuss A-Ronde Gaston, noting his ceiling may be capped due to the Chargers adding other tight ends and limiting his role to passing situations. Overall, they advise fantasy players to prioritize film study and analytics over beat writer noise.

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School is in session again live with another school Scott here on the fantasy points YouTube. I'm Brett Whitefield your host along with my co-host Mr. CEO Scott Barrett himself Scott how are you doing today buddy? I'm doing great. That's a that's a great intro. You've really come a long way since the days The inverse analytics for those who don't know there was like one of the first time I feel like it took 15 takes But man that like literally 10 out of 10 intro great job Thank you. Are you gonna say that every week I do this? I don't know are you gonna keep crushing these intros because that was that was impressive You brought the energy on fire it up. I'm excited Yeah rewind two three years ago when we first started film for San Olives I was I was new to the hosting game Yeah, it's been years now Scott. I have my own show that I do two episodes a week of that I host and do the intro It's like riding a bike for me at this point. I don't I don't need the adaboy every time it comes off good You know what I mean like I'm gonna nail this every week. All right. All right. Let's do it All right, cool. So we're doing another AMA ask us anything Scott a lot of these questions we got pre-show are our fantasy relevant So I'm probably gonna lean on you heavily for some of these but I obviously will still contribute my film takes and and stuff like that So but we wanted to kick this off with a little bit of a rant on beat writers I don't know if you want to call it that so to speak but Scott what's on your mind about beat writers? This is an itch. You need to scratch apparently. So what is it? What's going on? I was I've been thinking about this and so I think my edge Over everyone else is in terms of my rankings and and like their historical accuracy and whatnot is really just like a simple process thing It's you know as I'm doing my rankings, which I'm working on right now Probably 99% done. I've already shared it with a few subscribers who have their drafts before my draft guide comes out August But as I'm working through my rankings is like I log everything you know I'm good with data So like I need everything to be a data point that I could look back to and measure and so like I'm okay Jamar chase versus pukin a kooa this feels really tight for me. Okay the tie breakers this I'm also factoring in this and this and so I'm logging all of this And then the draft guide comes out the season happens the season ends. It's January its February And I go through what I call my self-flagulation session where it's for like two weeks three weeks I really beat myself up. I really rub my nose and my own mistakes I look back at the draft guide and it's like Here's what you got wrong. How can you learn from this and I'll like For those you I think you know is like January February like I'm in an awful mood. I'm not fun to be around I'm like literally depressed You know because like you know I take this too seriously, but um actually this past year was probably like the best it's ever been I Usually very hard myself this time. I was like actually no like you know good process Bad results here good process mediocre results here I was actually pretty pleased with with uh, you know looking back over the draft guide But anyway, yeah, and so as I'm doing that I look at you know, okay, why did I make this decision? Because this ended up not being right. You know, I should have went Tyler Warren over Colston, Lovelin or something like that And so I'll leave myself notes in January February that I'll circle back on as I'm doing my rankings in July like hey don't forget this or hey You know you went a little too deep in the weeds on the play collar stuff You know pump the brakes a little bit and so a note I had this past year So also a note I had the year before that and I think two years before that as well is It's like memento. It's like a tattoo sprawled on my wrist. It's Ignore the beatwriters the beatwriters are freaking worthless and like I know this sounds like PQ bris Where it's like really you think you know more than the guy whose job it is to cover the team I wouldn't be saying this if I didn't just like write this to myself multiple years in a row that like My rankings would have been better off If I just kind of ignored the beatwriters and I really think This is the case bread. I think like The these guys are awful when it comes to projecting playing time. They have absolutely no I mean the exception is like an Aaron Wilson and Dan Duggan Those guys are awesome, but like I feel like 97% of beads are are kind of worthless Sky worse than worth. How long have I been telling you this? I know That's why I wanted to bring it up is because you've been all over this. Yeah Yeah, it's it's tough So we live in this content driven Culture where like if you're a full-time job is to to be a beatwriter for a team you have to Turn that machine no matter what's going on at practice, right? And we know positivity sells more the negativity Unless you're on support stock radio. It's a totally different animal But for beatwriters, it's like okay cool. They go sit down and watch practice They see a fourth string guy or a fourth receiver look good They're gonna write a story about it and the problem is is like You just pointed out their expertise isn't winning famously leagues their expertise isn't projecting playing time or even snaps or Opportunity it's just like hey, this is a fun story. I'm gonna go talk to the player and I'm gonna write about it And then we have all these aggregators that then take that information and they pump it up For the hype train because we live in this constant Content machine that that constantly has to get churned has to be new information every day There has to be little blurbs about every player when you go on sleeper.com and you click on a player's name We got to have our you know four most recent blurbs written about him and that like that's the world we live in and so for most teams their beatwriters They're they're really not football experts at all their journalist majors who ended up covering the NFL There are exceptions of course. I think it like the Detroit Lions have like a Dave Burkett and a Justin Rogers and a Jeremy Reisman You know Justin Rogers knows the name of football, but he also stays in his lane He's not trying to win you fantasy leagues and he's Dave Burkett doesn't really he's not an exes and those guys so he doesn't try to be one And I think there are good beatwriters out there that kind of just stay in their lane They're they're really well established at what they do But for the most part a lot of these guys are just playing to the constant content machine that we're in and so You really just can fade the noise. It's just a lot of noise. It's a lot of fluff. I think My film study your analytic stuff. That's way more predictive than what exbeat writer says from watching a practice By the way, they're not even allowed to watch most practices. Do you there's everyone know that? Yes So they did a new thing right a rule change in the last year or two? Yeah, they for during the season stuff Especially they get to watch the first 15 minutes of practice and that's it and that's it So whatever you're taking away from that is completely diminished exactly It's like hey, we're featuring Tason Hill this week. Let's do it after the first 15 minutes So this isn't right and then for training camp so like for teams that have new coaches and new coordinators and new personnel Like the first few weeks of training camp is install. They're literally installing base looks and just because the team puts Like here's a classic one every year There's we get reports of teams using two running back sets. Oh, Jermior Gibbs and David Montgomery were on the field together for like the first 30 minutes of practice Yeah, it's just they're installing a package We have no idea how much that package will get used right? It's like hey, we want to have this package available to us in the case in the event We want to use it. We've never practiced this package before so for the first 30 minutes of practice We're going to run 10 plays out of this package. We have no clue how often they're going to use that package And it's just in the beat writers. I especially don't know so Yeah, there's a lot like so much beat writer stuff gets pumped up But it's not to slam them. I think they have a job they have to do and I respect it But like the fantasy crowd just continues to elevate what these guys say like it's gospel and a lot of times it's just completely worthless That's exactly right and School of Scott listeners have heard me reference this quote a million times Charlie Munger show me the incentive I'll show you the outcome and so it's very much like they write what Their readers want to hear right like if you're a you're a saints fan you don't want to say like hey actually I think this is like at just a 500 ball club, you know, they're going 50% their games um, and so like or like Buffalo bills you don't want to hear like hey This was a desperation move Brandon Beans an idiot they overpaid on DJ Moore who's probably washed It's hey the bills finally have their Stefan Diggs again, and they're gonna Smash and so like it's always this positive vent and these guys are basically like in my Find like glorified fan bloggers like I don't want to throw anyone out of the bus But John Shipley is like one of the biggest like fantasy heroes like everyone in the fantasy community loves Shipley who does the Jaguar's beat we got into it a number of years ago I was Doug Peterson's last year he blocked me we got into like this this debate where like I was tweeting negatively about Trevor Lawrence And you know, he just came at me like a fan, you know, and and I have it on good authority that like hey, I was dead right Trevor Lawrence at that time at the end of uh the Doug Peterson tenure was like the slimmest see hair away from getting benched And you know according to you know, Shipley it was oh, it's none of its his fault. It's all the receivers. It's blah blah blah And like he's this guy's going viral on seeing like 50 road world blurbs Uh, a ball knowledge fantasy points AI we have a newsfeed. You're going to see a bunch of Shipley reports there. If you go to the Ball Knowledge AI, Zane Donani is doing an amazing job with covering all the important news. One of our guys, a ton of Shipley reports. But it's like, you read what he's saying, and it's like, hey, I don't have any sources here. But this is just my opinion based off of last year is that Parker Washington is going to lead the team in targets. Parker Washington is going to get a new contract this off season. It's like, yeah, that's exactly what I think. And are we really just like moving off, like going off of the same information, which was just, hey, he looked awesome in the last four weeks last year. He's better than his round six rookie contract. And yeah, it's just like, you're taking like someone's opinion, which like is really almost no different than like Chris Wax doing projections. Or that's the other part of it. I don't know if you remember two years ago, so much was made of Tyler Algier versus Beige on Robinson, where some beat was like, yeah, I think Tyler Algier's Algier is going to get 14 to 16 touches per game. Like that. Oh, okay. So Beige on Robinson should actually be going in round seven instead of round one. I like reply to him. I'm like, I'm like, so how many do you think Beige on's going to get? He's like, I don't know, 28 touches per game. It's like, oh, okay. So you think the Falcons are going to run more than any team since the 1920s. And like, they're just like a mental block when it comes to projections. And so like, yeah, it requires a lot of like tea leafery, a lot of like reading between the lines. And even then, it's just like, again, I think we'd be better off just kind of ignoring 95% of this. Yes, spot on. Should we get into some of these questions now? Yeah, yeah, let's do it. Oh, you want to talk best rookie tight answer last year? I mean, it's just, yeah, as I was working through my rankings, I just wanted to hear if you thought anything differently than what I sort of expected you to think. Tell me how, so I said coming out last year's tight end class was historically great. It was an all-time great tight end class. You had Tyler Warren, who had the most yards from scrimmage of any power conference tight end in college football history. You had Harold Fanon Jr., with the most receiving yards of any FPS tight end in college football history. You had Colston Loveland, with the best yardage market share of any tight end in 50 years. You had a Ronde Gaston, who there were some questions of whether he's a receiver or tight end, but historically great age adjusted yards for team pass attempt and at least one of these seasons. And so those four guys, I really kind of circled as like these guys are special and all of them, to varying degrees, had really impressive rookie seasons. And so I would like to know where you sit on those four tight ends and how bullish you are, on each of them heading into their sophomore years. Oh, that's such a good question because like you, they all were incredibly impressive in different ways. Yeah. I think the best rookie tape period for me was probably Harold Fanon Jr. Whoa, did not expect that. Wow. You wanted that high on him, right? Well, I had massive questions about athleticism, man. Yeah. And just the the translateability of what he was asked to do in college to the pro game. I mean, I mean, I still had a day two grade on him. I was higher on him than the league was. What do you go? He ended up going third round? Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I think I still had a two on him, but right in line really with what the NFL thought put man, this guy is the hardest dude in the league to tackle. There's there's not a the hardest dude in the league to attack. I mean, there's not a scarier player in the open field to come across than Harold Fanon Jr. Yes, George Kittle levels. He's Tucker craft levels vintage George Kittle and probably better than Tucker craft. Wow. The tape isn't so I mean, the the data speaks for itself. The yards after catch the force mistakels were insanely high, but you actually watched the nature of those force mistakels. They're vicious. They're brutal. There's no corner in the league that's going to want to come up and tackle that dude. They are scared of that man. Safety's are scared of that man. So like, yeah, I think for for the way they used to also the route running was better. And I thought it was going to be Scott. Like I thought, you know, the crisp crispiness getting in and out of his breaks was was far beyond what I thought he was capable of considering the anatomical limitations I thought he had. And I thought the play speed was perfectly fine. You know, I was worried about the athleticism and the overall juice, but honestly, the play speed looked good. I thought he looked fast. He looked athletic in one of the hardest dudes to tackle in the league. And that's the in the too high era where live in in Scott, that's the trait you really want for these tight ends is that run after catchability. That's why Tucker craft is so dominant. That's why George Kittle. That's how he carved out a role early in his career and Kittle's become a fantastic route runner and separator as well. And the scheme goes a long way for him too. But man, that that run after catchability, that really is the differentiating mark right now for tight ends breaking out. And yeah, I think fan and junior had the best tape as a rookie. That said, I think close to love one's going to be the best of the bunch long term. I think he's had a more complete skill set. I think he's good after the catch, but he's also a dynamic route runner insane ball skills catch radius, you know, catchability stuff like that separation ability. Hey, oh, don't one second. So I get a graphic on screen and this is probably my worst take according to my followers. Certainly according to Ryan, he's Ryan hates this take, but it's just like looking at ADP, Colston, Loveland goes three rounds earlier than Harold Fanon and some formats four rounds earlier. And it's just like, you know, I'm not saying take fan and over Loveland. I'm just saying like I like I like logical consistencies and this seems, you know, inconsistent is everyone's like Colston, Loveland's last four games. Colston, Loveland's last four games. I'm like, well, if you just look at last four games, really last 16 quarters because they both left their final games with an injury. Last 16 quarters versus last 16 quarters fan in with like much worse quarterback play, everything. 18.2 fantasy points per game to Loveland's 20 fantasy. And so it's just like, hey, you know, who is also freaking sick in his last four games. It was Harold Fanon who you get it a three or four round discount. And like Loveland, there's some concerns there where, you know, we've talked about it where over those four games that everyone's pointing at is Chicago was outlierishly pass heavy with extreme negative game script. But all other games you really saw like Colcomett cannibalizing Loveland's playing time and upside. And so yeah, it's just it's just kind of weird how everyone's in love with with Loveland fan and it's like, yeah, he's a good backup plan if I miss out on him. But you're saying, hey, the tape was incredible. This is like a special talent for a guy who again had the best tight end season in FPS history. And so I like this. This this feels interesting and spicy to me. Well, so for fantasy, the question you have to answer is like what offense is more sustainable for that guy to continue breaking out? Oh, I mean, yeah, yeah, the bears seem to have a better ecosystem. But the, you know, quarterback play call or stuff like that. But the browns are also building from scratch. So like maybe Harold Fanon, Jr. is already the guy there. I don't know. Well, if you listen to the GM, that's basically what he's saying is like, we want to we want to build the ship around Fanon. You know, our young guys, we have a lot of belief in him. Bob, hey, they got rid of David and Joku. But yeah, I mean, certainly the Ben Johnson offense that doesn't have DJ Moranette or Mullen, he's the key as anymore is more exciting. But again, there's like a four-around discount. So you kind of have to make that in. What about Tyler Warren? What about Aronda Gaston? What about Terrence Ferguson? What about those guys? Well, let's hit Aronda first because he's kind of an odd one. Yeah, Aronda is a big power slot receiver. And that's kind of the way the charges use them in the snap share, route share reflects that where it's like when they were in obvious rundowns, they just couldn't play him. He's not good enough in the run game. And they really kind of refuse to live in 12 personnel last year. And I don't really know why they wouldn't play Gatson and Dissleet together or Gatson and their other tight ends together. It was super strange. So he was really dependent on game script. He was really dependent on then needing to throw the ball. Which happened plenty. Let's not be shy about that. But this off season is troubling for Gatson because they bring in Charlie Kola who I think is a very underrated player. I think he's a really good, complete, every down type tight end. And then they also bring in David and Joku as a kind of a yak threat. So they can mix up these personnel groupings. They're also going to use a fullback in this offense a little bit more. It's like, I don't know how much more Gatson's going to play. So we may have already seen the ceiling for fantasy for Gatson. That was at like week 10 through week 14 or something like that. That stretch that he had where the offense is kind of running through him. That may have been the peak for him for now. Anyways. And so I also talk about Mike McDaniel and the fact that he's never valued the tight end position yet. He's got a tight end room. That's rich. I don't know. It's really strange kind of thing to figure out here. So I'm a little out on Gatson right now. I think Kohlar is going to be there every down tide end and then you're going to see cats and have to find those spots again. like he did last year, where he might be a pass down only player or a big slot type and can't really get, you know, the workload we need for him to be consistently fantasy relevant. As far as Warren goes, I mean, Warren has the run after catch gene as well that Harold Fann does. He's a monster. You he's viable in the run game as well. He's a fantastic blocker every down player. And he was trending towards having a really good rookie season as well, right? And then Daniel Jones goes down and the whole thing kind of falls apart. Where would his season of ranks historically though if the whole offense kind of stayed on the course it was on? Yeah, I had a great graphic actually. So so up until Daniel Jones fractured his fibula, they had to have a custom 3D printed brace that's never existed before for him to play the next two weeks where he really struggled and then he missed a bunch of time. But up until that initial injury, I think it's like the first six or seven or eight weeks, his numbers on a per route per target basis were indistinguishable from rookie season Brock Bowers. So he looked incredible. He was the tight end to and fantasy behind only training the bride. And then he's he's catching passes from a 47 year old literal grandfather, Philip Rivers. And so yeah, he's another player. I think we're sleeping on another incredibly productive, highly accomplished collegiate tight end. And so again, yeah, I think this is a really special tight end class. And one thing we know about tight ends is historically like they they struggle those rookies and then you have that sophomore year breakout where if you bought it, you know, age curves, career curves, it's it's like rookie season, you're 40% baseline sophomore season, you're like 110% baseline. And it's, you know, this amazing year where there's a ton of value. So yeah. Yeah, I want to hit Mark Lambert's comment here. He said, "Colar is a blocking tight end. I don't get this taking away from gas." And I don't know who told you, "Colar is a blocking tight end." That's not true. He was a dominant pass catching tight end in college. He was drafted ahead of Isaiah likely as a pass catching tight end with the Baltimore Ravens and suffered an injury. His first year of training camp and then likely kind of passed on the depth chart. He was stuck behind, you know, very good tight end of Mark Andrews and a very viable tight end to and Isaiah likely. I think Colar is a good blocking tight end for sure, but he was a dominant pass catcher, producer trade notes all about this. This is a clone to the bone right here in Charlie Colar. So I think people are absolutely sleeping on. I think he had, he had like 2,200 receiving arts in 23 touchdowns in three years at Iowa State. Like he's like an absolute dog. It's one of the highest catch rates ever for a tight end as well at the college rank. So I am a big Charlie Colar guy. I don't think he's a quote unquote blocking tight end. Yeah, there's that there's that Brock Bowers versus time of war comparison. Yeah, look at that 2.11 yards for that run all time great numbers for a rookie and warm is actually better than that last tight end will get to do you have any leans on Terrence Ferguson, the kind of unique way he was used as like a deep threat tight end. You have haven't really seen that for a long time. Greg Olson was sort of like that like a more a rare deep threat for a tight end. But you have beats again, we were talking about how we're kind of throwing a lot of shade at beats. But they're saying he could be the Rams wide receiver three this year. Terrence Ferguson. I mean, they they invested a lot of draft capital into a receiving only type tight end. I feel like having a plan for him to get on the field would be good. But I don't know man. Then they went and drafted Max Claire in a very similar slot right a second round pick. So yeah, I mean Ferguson has juice for days. That's what he was awesome at Oregon. I think for me, it's like Sean McVase so unpredictable with what the new wrinkle he's going to add. Right. So 13 personnel was the wrinkle last year. I think they were like 30% 13 personnel. So yeah, Ferguson's going to play in every one of those and get all the deep shots out of that look. Sure. Yeah, he could be he could be their wide receiver three. I'm not really counting on it though. So I'm looking at a Terrence Ferguson's head shot. He looks like Scott Farcus from a Christmas story. But but yeah, I also he like I didn't really love him as a prospect coming out. But I think, you know, he's kind of aged a little bit more gracefully because, you know, you look at Kenyans to Deeks numbers. He was actually more productive than Kenyans to Deek in the same offense back in 2024. They also have another tie that on the team who's supposed to go around one next year. He'll be its 20 pick. Yeah. So yeah, that's that kind of helps me get a better gauge on these sophomore tight ends, which honestly, like might be one of the most important questions of the year. Certainly a lot of excitement surrounding a number of these names. Why don't you hit us with some of the fan questions. Yeah, let's go. Let's go one from pops pop a dub's Greg Whitefield. My dad. So who is a higher PPR dynasty ceiling? It does your rank differ for this year. I'm assuming by this year, he means redraft. Jaylin McMillan from Tampa Bay, Parker Washington, Jordan Addison or Jaden Higgins. This is a fun cluster to talk about, right? I think Graham and I did our wide receiver rankings and Addison was outside the top 50. We got a lot of pushback about that. But this, this group in general has a lot. I feel like they're all ceiling plays. Scott, what do you think here? So I don't know that I agree. So we could start with Jaylin Higgins who you're very high on. I'm a little worried. Tankdale might not be dead. Tankdale might still be and might be cutting into Jaylin Higgins breakout potential. But I have said multiple times, I'm going to be higher on Higgins than consensus, which is really just deferring to your X's and O's brilliance, your film game. Jordan Addison, I'm not high on at all, especially not in redraft because he's behind Justin Jefferson on the target totem pole. And then whether it's Jay-J MacArthur or Kyler Murray, it's not really a good setup. Kyler Murray's only ever had one wide receiver, finished top 24 in fantasy points. Throughout his entire career, Jay-J MacArthur, he probably even worse than that. And so it's really down to Tecnic Millen and Parker Washington for me. Who has the higher dynasty ceiling? I was at Tecnic Millen. That was Jaylin Macmillan, I thought. Oh, Tampa Bay receiver. That's too obviously better than those guys. No, no, I feel like a Jaylin Macmillan is too obviously below everyone else. Dad, if you're watching, please clarify. Yeah, come on. What Macmillan, you mean? Yeah, we got to go first name basis here. So I'll say if it's Tecnic Millen, I think is legitimately like a fringe top 12 wide receiver in the league already. Yeah. He plays with Bryce Young who stinks and is short and he is awful. And so like that's what's holding it back. We're like, if he went down and like dude, our guy, King Hayes, you know, was quarter back. Like I'd legitimately be bullish or any Dalton, if Dalton's still there, I don't even know if he is. Way more bullish, but yeah, it's just with Bryce Young. It's like, oh, 198 passing yards. Because even if he has this elite yardage market share, which he did, you know, that's not going to get it done. And, you know, really good rookie season, despite battling with a ton of injuries that people are kind of losing sight on, it's really that quarterback situation, which luckily for dynasty is like, they can't have Bryce Young starting next year, right? Right? There's no way they give him a contract extension, right? Like it's that bad. And then with Parker Washington, like I feel like I talked about Parker Washington every time, he was like, well, what's going on? He's like, what's going on? I'm not sure, but I'm just going to be a little bit more, like he's like, I'm just going to be a little bit more, like he's just going to be a little bit more, like he's just going to be a little bit And that's like bearing the lead. The lead to me is Mike Evans was nine fantasy points for getting less. Mike Evans is like an all time alpha and Chris Godwin in the Liam Cohen slot role turn him into a beta. So it's like the BTJ argument, I think is really compelling, but it's like, hey, maybe he's just in the Mike Evans role and this Chris Godwin Parker Washington role is just way more valuable. And it's also, it's also let's not lose sight of Trevor Lawrence and his issues over the years is what have we always said? He locks on to his first read. He needs a wide receiver who can separate really quickly and that seems way more Parker Washington than or deep threat BTJ. Yeah, for me, the interest Parker Washington as well because, you know, everything you mentioned plus, I think about like this Trevor Lawrence breakout we've prayed. So openly, it came in conjunction with this growth with Parker Washington. So they don't want to duplicate that success. Also, they're like living together this all season. Like they clearly have a thing. And when quarterbacks have like, think about Matthew Stafford that like, twinkly gets in his eye with his wide receiver one. Yeah, it's like, you're just getting fed. When you become that guy, BTJ might be a more talented player. It doesn't matter. Washington's getting fed because that is Trevor Lawrence's dude now. So that's, that's when they were at their best last year and that's crucial because like, if they're just a middle of the pack team, like Vegas thinks they're 16th and scoring this year, if Vegas is right, then, then like, yeah, whatever. All these guys are just mid as F, right? And, but if they are who they were at the tail end of last season, which was a top three offense, then there's a ton of upside. And who were they featuring at that point in time of this Parker Washington? Nice. I want to move on, but I want to address this real quick before we get to another question. Not criticism. You guys crush and have, unenviable expectation of being always right. How do you adjust Scott process of players like Roman Wilson, Damien? That's definitely pointed at me because those are guys I liked. I don't like, so I don't adjust anything. Honestly, it sounds, it sounds, it sounds ego. I mean, I evaluate, why did I miss? You know, also the books not written on either of those guys, probably more so written on Damien Martinez, but Roman still might have a role this year with Pittsburgh and he could develop a bit. I know he dealt with injuries his, his first year and that kind of set him back, but I really don't adjust much of anything. I look for, is there a glaring reason why I missed? And maybe I make an adjustment, but ultimately, like, I trust my own process because my hit rate has allowed me to. You know, I still hit at a higher rate at pretty much every position than the NFL does. And so like, yeah, I'm going to be wrong. It's like, I'm fully aware I'm going to be wrong. I've been wrong plenty of times and I'll be wrong more, but I'm also right a lot. And so, yeah, man. Yeah, I'll say your hit rate is uncanny. Like I look at, you know, people across the industry, the results. And yeah, they don't come close to you. I will say though, I was a big Roman Wilson hater. And your track record on prospects is better than mine, better than anyone. But if you take the film versus analytics consensus, where like, if I really hate someone and you really like him, you just cross them off, that's, that's the best hit rate. All right, say, yeah, good call. Hey, we got a super chat here. We got hit. Oh, M love 107 with a $10 super chat. Thank you so much for that, man. 12 team auction league, a half point PPR flex 10. What do you think of going all in and spending two thirds or more budget on B. John and Gibbs? We've gotten this question so many times. Or would you rather pair one of them with elite writer, C. Richard Puka? I think we've answered this the same way every time. Just, yeah, if you can get B. John and Gibbs, it's, it's pretty fun. Just do it. Yeah, man. That's, that's wild. I would not pair with Chase or Puka. I would really place a premium on B. John and or Gibbs. I feel like grabbing both might put you at a disadvantage where you're, you're too weak on depth and it does more harm than good. Oh, good. Is that why? No, it's 12 team. It was just, yeah, so depth matters more in 12 team than 10, 10 team. So I don't know that I'd go after both, but certainly one of those guys and maybe don't pair with, with Chase or Puka. I don't really know. They'll all be honest. I'm more of a snake guy. People who read the draft guy had tons of auction players who've had a ton of success. But this, this question actually isn't in my wheelhouse. So. Right on. All right. Let's, let's hit another one from the tweets from script. What's a backfield that isn't perceived as murky, but has an RB2 that can take over the role by the end of the season. There it is. I have, I want to hear your thoughts got, but I have a super hot take for this after. Oh boy. So I actually didn't put enough thought into this. I mean, Kyron Williams, obviously your boy Blake Horim. Yeah. It was incredibly efficient last year. That's. Yeah. There's a, that was going to be my hot take. So you kind of nerfed me on that one. So I don't think that's a hot take. I think a lot of people have that take. I was going to say the bear's backfield where it's like Deandre Swift had a ton of injuries last year. So maybe he's just like, goes back to being the RB1 healthy this year. Or like, I don't know, those, those injuries, lower body injuries, hamstring injuries that have plagued him, just keep piling up and like, Kalmanong guy was, you know, what, a round seven pick. Just like Isaiah Pichekko, out of Rutgers, slept on, but like, braiding on a curve that he's a rookie round seven pick was like, really impressive last year. And so maybe. It runs hard. Yeah, I think they like the, the tandem, but, you know, maybe that's one people are sleeping on. Kmanong guy, like, totally respect what it is a seventh round rookie. He just doesn't have a diversified enough skill set to like, warrant being a bell cow. So I think Swift is probably the RB1. Yeah. But like, can it get close to a 50, 50? Absolutely. It kind of already was. So I was trying to come up with a spicy one. The chalk ones are, or for sure, Blake Korum, I got a spicy one. And Jonathan Brooks. Let's hear it. Broncos, Jonah Coleman. Oh, okay. I, so I don't know that this one's all that impactful for fantasy either, just because I feel like, sorry, J Harvey, Kess's, catches passes. J K Dobbins is the lead back running the ball until he gets hurt. So, yeah, exactly. So he's, he's, but here's the thing. Coleman is a very good receiver. Yeah. That was, that's one of the things I hated about his profiles. Like, your 58225 and you're better at like the finesse components of playing running back. Then you are the power components. And so, but he's a really good receiver. He called a million passes at Washington. So I, I don't know, man. And I just like, there was enough on RJ Harvey's tape last year to scare me a little bit and to think and pay it might, might be off of him. So just saying, I did say it was a hot day. I didn't say it was like a guaranteed slam dunk, but like, yeah, he wants to know, he wants to know some unexpected ones, right? A back for the, is it perceived as murky? Well, I think, yeah. I think Coleman can absolutely be a factor there. Okay. So, all right. Let's do another one from the only Hatch. Who's the one player non-cuby? You're not drafting, but you're afraid he might come back to bite you. I don't know. I needed to give this one more thought than I did. I will say like I mentioned this multiple times on multiple podcasts. I think Amika, Buka is the trickiest player to get right. Maybe it's just as simple as, hey, he was a top five fantasy wide receiver his first five weeks. There's the third most, by a wide rookie wide receiver first five games since the fall of the Berlin wall. And then he got injured and Baker got injured. And so if you want to just write off weeks six on where the GPS tracking says, yeah, he was seriously dealing with something. Jeff Mueller, best injury expert in the game was like, yeah, they needed to give him two weeks off. And because he didn't, he was just like playing it less than 90% for the next, however many months. And yeah, so if you just write that off and it's like, hey, no, my heavens, Baker may feel it's a baller and a dog. Could he be a league winner? He's in the Zach Robinson Cooper cup roll, et cetera, et cetera. I see, I see some really serious red flags as well. And you know, Jeff Mueller, who I just mentioned is actually really bullish on Chris Godwin and whatnot. But like I said, he's one I've really struggled with. And I've struggled because I think it matters a lot. Like I, the upside and the downside here, I think he's an important player. I really want to get right. And so, so I've struggled with him. What about you Brett? Do you have an answer to this? I don't, you know, I'm like scanning the ADP right now to find one. I think maybe the guy, it's probably Lad McConkey for me. Oh, okay. I have basically no interest in drafting him. I'm QJ. Give me more. If I'm drafting one of them, it's QJ and then it's like, but I do know that Lad's super talented. Like Lad has a ton of talent. And it's like, if he wins the opportunity to be their YGC for one, yeah, he's going to make me look silly. So I'm a little scared about that one. Yeah, Ryan, he's JSN this year. And you and I are both kind of all feeding lad. So that's scary for sure. Yeah. [BLANK_AUDIO] move on, tweet from King to icon. Oh, he's already looked, producer Tray had up before he even queued him verbally. Basial Tune versus Trayvian Henderson, who has more league-winning upside? This is a more loaded question I think people realize. Can I just say something? Can we just, you just ignore this question and have a conversation about Basial Tudon because this is Ryan Heath's guy. I showed him my rankings, I'm like, what do you think? I don't agree with this, but I get why you got there. I don't agree with this, I don't get why you got there. Basial Tudon needs to be way higher. I thought I was already high on it. He needs to be way higher. This is his guy. There's no one in the space, no fantasy analyst I respect more than Ryan Heath. He's really just really an amazing. It makes me nervous whenever we're misaligned here. I worry my take is a cognitive bias. It's a motion driven, which is inexcusable. I can't have that. It's because I love Chris Rodriguez coming out. I was a big Chris Rodriguez. I thought he deserved draft capital way better than he got. Then he came on the show. He came on school of Scott. I interviewed Chris Rodriguez. We had a great time. We became Chummy. He follows me on Twitter. We should have a happy birthday for friends. I love Chris Rodriguez. I look at Basial Tudon. Ryan Heath is like the base case bare minimum is he's at TN from last year, but more efficient because he's not washed like at TN is. We were both really high on Basial Tudon coming out. Me, I just think Chris Rodriguez is just going to get 12 to 14 carries every single week. With Tudon, it's everything that's left over. See Rod's not going to get a single target, but 12 to 14 carries every single week. It shrinks the pie that's left for Tudon, but I don't know if this is just because I want this to be the case. See Rod's my boy. He came on the pod. You tell me, am I thinking about this logically or not? First of all, I just got to point something out here. There was something sad in that and that diet tribe that I can't let go. We think Tudon could be a more efficient version of Travis ETN or HN, whatever we're calling on these days. At TN. Do we really think running back the running back himself as who controls their efficiency? Well, I'm just saying like the expectation for Liam Cohen backfield should be extremely high and it wasn't last year. I think that's because ETN was lost and it's going to be much better this year. I'm pointing out that offensive line is what controls a running back efficiency. More than the running back itself. They didn't upgrade their offensive line. We can point at metrics from Travis all day long and say he wasn't very good. The force mistack rate was low. The yards after contact were low. Expose of run rate was average. That's offensive line driven mostly in my opinion. Can Basel Tudon increase the efficiency on his own? A little bit sure he's a more explosive player, maybe as more wiggle than Travis does at this point in time. However, it's generally an offensive ecosystem equation and it can Liam Cohen improve that second year in the system? Sure. We saw a massive jump in Tampa Bay. However, his offensive line in Tampa Bay at his disposal significantly better than what he's gotten in Jacksonville. I just want to point that out. I think the expectations of Tudon taking this to another level on his own accord is a little out of my purpose. I'm not willing to go that far for one. And then for two, there's a real downside case with Tudon that is scary. And it is. You mentioned how much you like, you know, Chris Carter, you know who else does? Liam Cohen. The guy you love coming out of college played for Liam Cohen. And he was the entire offense. He was a Wildcat quarterback. He was an every down back for them. Like he was a monster. And so yeah, there's a chance Liam Cohen just wants his boy. And I know there's a hell of a risk right now with Rodriguez. But I think he'll end up being fine for the season, right? And then on top of that, they have a third back in liquid Alan who's probably a better pass catcher than Bay shall Tudon. So like there's an extreme downside case for Tudon where it's like, yeah, you're right. Rodriguez might get eight to 12 carries a game. And then if LaQuinta Alan plays even half of the third downs, Tudon is completely fantasy irrelevant. And now I'm not predicting that's going to happen. But like there's so much risk involved with Tudon to me that it's like, he's another one. I'm kind of like, I see the upside. I do see the ceiling. If he does win that job, he's a bell cow, it's insane. However, there's enough downside here. I'm like, I just don't know how I feel about it. We're Travian Henderson really just like we kind of know what his situation is. We know Ramondas, a good football player. If Ramondra were to get hurt or get in the doghouse, Henderson's like a to the moon type player, I kind of tied this full circle back to the question. But so I don't know. I'm going to blow your mind with a stat real quick. Yeah, shout out to producer Tray Chris Rodriguez is a less athletic marsh on Lynch. That was his own comp for himself. He said that on our podcast. But I think that was also our comp based on film. All right, here's a stat to blow your mind. Since entering the league of 67 qualifying running backs, Chris Rodriguez ranks first in yard after contact per attempt, which Liam Cohen had every time he's asked about a running back, he talks about how much he values yards after contact per attempt. Chris Rodriguez, number one, since entering the league, number two in success rate, number two in stuff rate, number three in EPA per run behind only Devon H&N and Derek Henry fifth in touchdown rate, eighth in Miss Tackles Force per attempt. I still think, you know, basal students for sure, probably the better back. But again, like Liam Cohen, his history, he, you know, went out of his way to sign him. And it's a player, I've always been high on. I will say this. So so factor in injuries, trade on trade on Henderson, way more upside. If Ramondra Stevenson goes down, Henderson to the moon, like you said, but assume full health for Ramondra and Seerad, Tudon has way more upside in my mind. Yeah, which is a hot take, which I don't, I don't, people are very high on trade in. I think, I think, we're, I think I'm out on trading. I think Chris wet, wet is out on trade in Henderson. Like just a guy who just like takes up space on your bench and you just, you just hate come week seven. You're like, oh, why did I draft you? I have to nerd out for a second. You mentioned Chris Rodriguez yards after contact success rate, you know, to me, that's the, that's the hallmark of an efficient running back. Like for running back, it's going to control efficiency. It's like success rate, EPA per rush, non-explosives, and then yards after contact. And so what is the goal of offense? The score points, right? The goal isn't necessarily to have the most robust run game. The best way to score points is to have a robust pass game. Scott. And so the best way to do that is to get your quarterback in manageable situations to stay on schedule to get play action, right? We've talked about all the the cheat codes to efficient offensive play calling. Well, having an efficient success driven back, like Chris Rodriguez is a huge cheat code. And this is why Kenneth Walker didn't work out in Seattle because he's not any of those things. And he's an explosive runner only. And that's why Zach Sharbonne routinely played over him is because Sharbonne is the stay on schedule guy. And so if you want to live in this play action world, which we know Liam Cohen does, like that's the best way to do it. Be in second and five, not, you know, second and nine with every once in a while, hitting an explosive. Intuiton is definitely a more boomer bus runner than he's definitely more on the Kenneth Walker train than say, Chris Rodriguez. So I have a devil's advocate argument for Tudon, which is going to be a nice segue into a follow up question. So one thing that matters is, you know, play callers don't want to be tipping their play calling hand whether the play is going to be a runner or a pass. Here's a crazy Chris Rodriguez stat. Since high school, he averages just 3.3 receptions per game. Like he is a total and complete non factor in the passing game, which is why Tudon has way more upside than Chris Rodriguez does. Even if Rodriguez is as good as we want him to be. And so maybe there's a world where yeah, they just want Tudon to be their bell cow. It's not tipping the play call, etc, etc. But this is something that's been explicitly said by new commanders, O.C. David Blow that they don't want to be tipping their play calling hand. They want a multifaceted running back. And so I'm wondering who you think that's going to be. Do you think that's going to be Rashad White, who is an exceptional pass catcher, not a great runner, and we've seen him be a bell cow for a stretch. Or do you think it's going to be Jekori Kraski-Marit, who I think is a really underrated impressive early down runner with a rare explosive skill set that again is rare. And it's hard to find. And O.C.s are valuing that much more explosive in the run game today than they have in the past. But has historically been a non factor in the passing game. Who do you think is more likely to run away with it? By the way, Jekori Kraski-Marit also led the league in Garts-Per-Kerry from outside zone. This is supposedly going to be an outside zone scheme for Rashad White. Pretty bad in zone, much better in man gap. What do you think it's-- is trickier to teach, you know, catching the ball or who do you think's more likely to get that bell cow roll if one exists? That's a great question. I think right now without seeing how these guys develop in training camp, I think Rashad Whites the more complete player. I think he's functional on early downs and really good on pass downs where I think JCM is early down only right now. But like I haven't been, you know, standing next to JCM when he's doing his past pro drills. I have no idea where he's at. You know, I kind of think like we started the conversation talking about beat writers and overvaluing it. I think coach speak is also up there with things we overvalue. It's like, remember these guys, when they say things, they're not ever saying things in terms of production or fantasy football. Like they're just simply pointing out like a lot of it is just like, Hey, I have to answer this question because it was asked and here's my answer. It's like, it's not always well thought out. It's not always there's not always some care to find and every little thing they say. And I think we, we kind of over, you know, analyze that stuff as well. So I mean, JCM's younger with probably more ceiling. So I think maybe they work him into an every down roll at some point. But I think Rashad Whites a really good football player. Just not great on early downs. Yeah, I just want to say on coach speak that's something we added to ball knowledge. You just get a fantasy points. AI. If you're a subscriber, you're going to access it. But yeah, we included all press conference transcripts into the AI. And so that's actually been really helpful for me in my research process is again, like, I don't, I don't care that the coach is saying, Oh, Rashad Whites really good. We really like him. Oh, J'Corey Crosses really talented. What I'm asking you are questions like, Hey, do the Giants want Jackson Dart to run more this year or run less this year because the injuries and it pulls up the exact quotes. And it's, it's like Harbaugh saying, you know, we need to protect him. But that's more just he needs to get out of bounds. He needs to slide. We don't want him running less because that's such a valuable component to his game. And it's like, okay, good. Yeah, I don't have to move him down in my rankings. You know, he's still going to be a Konami code quarterback. And so yeah, shout out to ball knowledge. Also shout out to Ryan Heath who is here in the comments. Tudon led all rookie running backs in the fantasy points data era in success rate. So he didn't all time great success rate last year. So I again, I just said, you know, Chris Rodriguez top two since he came in the lead. Well, Tudon might have been even better. So, you know, shout out to Ryan Heath who's the toughest guy in the world to argue with just because dude, he's so smart. He knows what's predictive and what's not. So yeah, this is one of the ones that as really I've struggled with is, is where to rank Tudon. And I again, I worry it's just because like, it's wish casting. It's emotional. Like I pride myself on being cold and logical and rational. And it's like, do I just want Chris Rodriguez to be a thing because he's my boy? I don't know. You tell me, comments, please leave comments. Tell me, tell me where you stand on Tudon versus C rod. We got a question here that I absolutely love talking about. Brock Chained asked, what's Romeo Dubs ceiling if he's getting the majority of the slot work? I have, I have a great answer to this, but I, I'm really curious to hear what you think. Cause I saw you leave a, a gift in response and seem like you thought this was a stupid question. Or not where the answer is. Maybe I just can't read your gifts. Maybe I'm a bad Giffr. I don't know. My wife thinks I'm a hilarious. Maybe you're a bad Giffr. I don't know. No, I think this is, this is such a fun question. You're in your love language. No, that's it. That's actually not physical touch for those wondering. All right. Good. Good to know. All right. You want to, you want me to just, no, hold on, hold on. Hold on. So you want to my take on Dubs. I think Dubs is a fantastic player. I've been saying for years, he's underrated. I think he's a total package, route runner, body control, ball skills, but he's lived primarily on the boundary, right? When he does go on the slot though, if you look at the asymmetric Scott, number one and, and number one for players alive in the slot. Isn't that crazy? Now, it's a relatively small sample. So it's not get super crazy with that. It's just, it is interesting. I think he's an under underrated separator out of like 120 or 120 qualifiers. He was like 39th in separation score the last year. Look at the last three years. He's top 30. And that was primarily as like an ex guy, right? But when he kicks into the slot, it gets even better. And then I know you're about to lead us on a journey through Josh McDaniel's history as a play caller. And the slot receiver. So why don't you go ahead and do that? Yeah. So the stat you're referencing over the last two years, Romeo Dobbs leads the league and asks from the slot. He's won Zay flowers to George Pickens three. Lotta, lotta commentary. This office isn't about the Cowboys trying to get him more work from the slot. Jerry Judy for Malik neighbors five, Jamar chase six, Amin Rossing, Brown seven, Justin Jefferson eight. Only 15.8% of his routes from the slot. But when he was there, he was exceptional, also led in separation, win rate. And as you can tell from this, this list, a lot of really good wide receivers on there. And then the Josh McDaniel slot thing is, yeah, you look at Josh McDaniel slot. Since he came into the league as a play caller, his slot wide receiver finishes top 12 in fantasy points per game. 44% of the time. Top 25, 72% of the time. Do you want to guess what Romeo Dobbs ADP is? In underdog. Go ahead. Wide receiver 52. Smash that. I know. So I'm not a best ball guy, but that's dude, best ball ADP is awful this year. I don't know what these best ball drafters are doing. But Romeo Dobbs is, you know, an extreme value. And yeah, shout out to our guy Zayn Denani. I know we were trashing beats earlier, but he had a great, he's had multiple tweets where it's like, no, no, Dobbs is very clearly the slot in this offense. But one of the beats and one of the better ones said two days ago that they envision him as like the PPR cheat code Stefan Diggs role where AJ Brown is more like the deep threat stretching the field, putting pressure on the defense, even when he's not getting the ball, which is like, oh, maybe, maybe we're all way too low on Romeo Dobbs way too high on AJ Brown. Certainly this is one of those things that, and by the way, the Josh McDaniel slot thing, people are like, oh, yeah, well, they had West Welker and they had Julian Edelman. And it's like, yeah, those were beauty FAs. Like, it's kind of the chicken and the egg thing. Um, and so yeah, it's like, dude, no one's talking about this. No one's talking about this, this slot role, which is historic Jacobi Myers and other UD effect, historically super valuable. And so I, I have struggled with where to rank him. He's still kind of, I don't know, does he have enough upside to really matter to be, uh, you know, a flag plant? I don't know, but there, there's something here and it's, and it's really curious. No one else is talking about him, except for you, me and Zane. If the ADP stays around 52 for redraft, wide receiver 52, yeah, I'm flag planting this. This, this is an ascending offense that's completely revamped. There's pass catching unit like, yeah, we, AJ Brown's good. That doesn't pro, you know, prohibit Romeo Dubs from being super fantasy viable, man. He's, uh, he's 54 on ESPN 53 on Yahoo. Yeah, it's crazy. Yeah, but I mean, there's a lot of guys like that. Like your boy Ricky Purcell's wide receiver 46. Um, so there's just kind of. This is why we're hammering running backs early. Yeah, yeah, that is right. That's exactly right. Um, I want to do one more tweet we got and then we'll, we'll move over to, to some discord questions that we got, but, um, here's a, here's a tweet from, oh, I put the tweets from Devonta Smith. That's actually not true. It's a question about Devonta Smith. But, uh, Guy asked Devonta Smith, great role, but poor at beating press coverage. What stops every team from pressing him and dramatically lowering, lowering his ceiling? Um, here's a thing about that common, right? Here's the thing about press, Jamar chase saw press the most of any receiver last year. And it was like 118 snaps, like, like 20% of his routes run or something like that. It's like, sure, they could press Devonta a little bit more, but like, what is the net result of that going to be? I also think they're going to hide Devonta a little bit. I think done TV and Wix profiles as a X better than Devonta. So I think they'll keep him in the Zier Eiffel and we don't have to worry about this much if at all. Um, actually, I'm going to look it up. I'm going to look up how many times Devonta Smith was pressed last year. Well, I can tell you there's a efficiency shout out to fantasy points data. Uh, again, press coverage last year. Yeah, not great. Actually, this is true. This is true press zero point eight eight yards for route run, which you rank 60 second. And then again, on plays without press coverage, 2.12 yards per route run that ranked top 20. Um, and so yes, skinny bad man, I think is just a little too skinny. And it's not just press coverage. He could also get as he's running his route. So he could get bullied by more physical cornerbacks. He could get pushed to the boundary, uh, not really give himself enough room to work. And so, uh, yeah, I think this is a fair concern, but I, I mean, I also think he's going to be incredibly successful without AJ Brown there. Yeah, it is a fair concern. But again, pressed on just 56 routes. He had negative ass on those routes, even if that double. guys like Taylor Swift negative ass. Oh my god. Wow. Dark places here on the school Scott live. Even if his after us, even if his press routes double that would mean he's number one in the NFL and the amount he gets pressed which I don't even think they're gonna allow to happen. They're gonna hide him at the Z or the F and then so but even if that happens the increased opportunity he gets from AJ Brown leaving will completely offset those 50 snaps he's gonna get pressed extra so I'm not too worried about it. You want to hit some discord ones? Yeah let's do it. I have a real fun one. I thought this question was awesome and something I can relate to because I think it's easy to get left in the weeds and some of these but long is Simon's asked most industry analysts speak primarily in terms of I want some shares of X guy or Y guy. Can you demystify this language for those of us who care the most about winning our top one to two leagues? Can you help us remove the need for a diversified portfolio? How you would draft differently if it was your only draft. I love this question so much because I hate I shouldn't say I hate I don't like talking about fantasy players in terms of like the stock market and I know if you play in 30 dynasty leagues that's the that's the you know a lot of people feel like they have to have that attention to detail in order to be successful across all 30 but Scott you said something pre show that I just think was a banger line I want you to go ahead and wrap on that for a second then I'll throw in my two cents. I don't even remember what I said. You basically said no I draft the exact same because if I find an edge I'm just gonna keep exploiting that edge over and over and over and over and over. Yeah yeah it's it's diversification is for cowards. Yeah when my whole thing is there's a market in efficiency here on this player on a Parker Washington on my exodia quarterback and so when I see an edge like that I'm just gonna keep tapping that button over and over and over again and so like legitimately if I draft 25 FFPC teams I am going to diversify very little and the only instances where I am gonna diversify is let's say I have the 103 in 10 leagues I'm gonna draft 50% Puka 50% Jamar chase why because like literally to me it's 50. It feels like a coin flip between them but for the most part it's like no on those 25 teams I'm gonna have 93% Parker Washington I'm gonna have 100% Exodia quarterback I'm gonna have and so that's really what it is and you know you know you talk about the stock market upside wins championships the whole thing was about how actually fantasy football is not like the stock it's it's right in many ways like the complete opposite and so yeah diversification is for cowards shout out to my guy Theo but that's something we always but it heads on last year where it's like no cam scatiboo in every draft no matter what yeah not diversify. An Exodia player is an Exodia player whether you're in 30 leagues or one league right so yeah go go collect those for me too like winning is obviously super important but so is like being convicted and there's just some players I'm convicted on that I don't want pieces of you know it's very rare for me and I play a lot more dynasty than redraft obviously but it's very rare for me to concede to oh I need a share of that guy does it happen occasionally sure like I think I have one Caleb William share you know but don't draft out of thomo yep try and remove the emotion from the equation and really just when you see an edge hammer it boom love that here's another one from the discord Charles Morrison says if TDs are more important than ever in Devante is who he is in that respect is he still undervalued for the same reason is Zay flowers overrated so actually this is really interesting this is something that Ryan Heath and I were debating in our projections channel yesterday where it's like he was like hey are we way too low on Zay flowers a guy I've always kind of been something of a hater on and I saw him getting a play call or downgrade because of just I mean Declan Doyle comes from the right tree but I had a ton of respect for Todd Monkin and Zay flowers really benefited because he saw a ton of screens a ton of manufactured touches a ton of busted coverage and he was running routes from a heavy personnel one of the highest rates in the league which is an efficiency cheat code for wide receivers it's easier target competition against tight ends than it is wide receivers and so that guy's leaving and but the they haven't replaced him with anyone like I I was like alright keen and Allen's gonna be on this team maybe keen and enstaphon digs are gonna be they're not adding anyone it doesn't seem like they're in any rush to and so if Mark Andrews is dust it's Zay flowers as just like the only guy and so like the only nitpick here is like the guy doesn't score touchdowns and Ryan Heath was like well you know we've said we know touchdowns are kind of fluke and random and they regress to the mean you know Antonio Brown didn't have a lot of touchdowns early in his career training the bride had a lot of touchdowns early in his career and this is these are great arguments like I'm not saying he's wrong but to me it's like yeah I know I would do that I was writing you know touchdown regression articles probably when Antonio Brown is a rookie you know saying saying touchdowns regress the mean and it's volatile but you look at his Zay flowers and like you know I want to like think I know better that I think I know when I can break the rules and I feel like Zay flowers five foot eight 185 pounds he he ranks outside of the top 50 wide receivers and end zone targets every single year that and maybe this is just a guy who doesn't score a ton of touchdowns and is really just a PPR scam and so he doesn't have you know bury you upside and then Devonte Adams conversely it I struggle to see a ton of upside for him beyond the the touchdowns and so by the way this this question is coming from a tweet I put out two days ago with the K ball kickers making longer and longer field goes than ever before with you know starting field position going closer and closer to the end zone because they're changing the kickoff rules every year. It's it's it's shaves off about like 22 yards per game and so touchdowns are worth more they're more important yards are worth a little bit less and so he's asking hey is Devonte Adams maybe someone we want to target and so yeah a lead touchdown upside he led the league in asked from a red zone ask last year separation win right he was like 2x the next close to player like he's just really good at that and if you look at the Rams what he did was it was a ton of 13 personnel with Adams on the field no puka on the field and so yeah a ton of touchdown upside for this guy but that's really all it is like I I like Adams this year a crazy stat is in games he played on at least half of the team snaps last year so controlling for injury games he played on at least half the team snaps 19.2 xfp per game 17.1 fantasy points per game both top five numbers and he's wide receiver 26 by ADP but he's old I really like Mike Evans I really like Devonte Adams I really like their touchdown upside their ass was amazing these old ass wide receivers Adams was one Evans or Evans was two in in ass last year and so they still got it what did they got they still got separation what do they don't have they don't have yak if you look at the worst yards after the catch per reception seasons and fantasy points data history they were both in the bottom six so over a five year span 33 year old Devonte Adams 32 year old Mike Evans they're both a year older now bottom six so like clearly there's some deterioration and skill set but these where you can't expect a ton of yak what can you expect and we talked about this in our last episode is the separation ability this is more less physical ability more film study route running technician nuances subtle headfakes iq etc and so I think that's going to be there and so to answer the question is yeah I think I think because of the way the the game is headed it's going to give them a buffer where their separation matters especially inside the red zone it gives them it gives them a nice little buffer do they have league winning upside what do you think right I don't I don't know about league willing winning upside but here's the I just want to say this to you like scoring touchdowns is a skill it is a skill like yeah I in aggregate across the whole league there's a regression to the mean for touchdown scoring however there's a reason to want to add them just always good at it it's because he's good at it like he scores a lot of touchdowns because he's a really good red zone receiver he you mentioned the separation numbers in the red zone they're they're crazy outlandish that actually is a skill so like and the reason this is an important conversation Scott and I don't know we probably didn't back sort of enough for people that don't have time to follow every storyline one of the things we've uncovered you know pretty clearly is passing is down across the league touchdown scoring is down across the league and so touchdowns they mean a little bit more when when you're scoring less of them when scoring in general's down when passing yards are down so I do think it's important you know to have a guy like Adam's feels really reliable because you know he's going to be in the mix in the red zone offense and score a bunch of touchdowns where to your point, Zay hasn't proven now for what three years four years that he scored touchdowns. So yeah, yeah, I will say I do think Adams is a value, but you do have some injury risk there with the age and whatnot. You know, Rams were kind of flirting with the idea of trading him and acquiring AJ Brown, but yeah, should should be, you know, among the favorites to lead the league and receiving touchdowns this year for sure, probably going to score a lot more of those than Puka even. Do we want to have the Caleb Williams discussion again or can we just tell them that we'll watch the last episode. Go watch the last 10. Yeah, Jeb, Jeb to 17. I see your question here about Caleb last Friday school Scott. We did a quarterback tears episode. We talked Caleb Williams for about 10. I was a great one. Yeah, so definitely watch that. I would say go check that out if you want my answer on Caleb plenty of data cited as well. All right, let's let's move on here. Let's do John stupid in the discord rights. And I'm not calling him stupid. That's what he called himself is zero. RB sneaky viable this year. RB is getting pushed up the board and there's always value in zgging where others zag. I don't know if there's always value in that, but this is, this is absolutely a question for you, Scott. I'm very comfortable pounding running backs early and I don't even when zero. RB was cool. I never did it. So I'll just let you take this one. Yeah, I would definitely say running back running back feels optimal and I feel really confident saying that this would be a case where I diversify though, like if if I had 25 FPC teams, I a number of those I would just go. Zero are be to mix it up to to try and capture enough upside to win their million dollar grand prize. And you can win with any strategy. And so like if you read my draft guide, it's hey, I really want to go RB or RB wide receiver RB. And if you look at my overall rankings, there's a clear priority on the running backs over wide receivers early. And then there's a running back I really like in round four. There's an exotic in round five. There's a running back I really like in round six to seven. There's an exotic in what is it round nine. And then there's some dart throws. I really like. I think there's a ton of ton of upside in a we talked about Rashad white, jacory, crosskey merit. There's a last round running back. I really like I want in all my leagues. And so I think yeah, I think you can win with a zero RB approach. It's just yeah, maybe you start puka, Drake, AJ Brown. And then, dude, if my exotic around nine running back, round five running back, late round running backs hit like you are this unstoppable juggerna so yeah, I think, you know, any strategy can work. And if you read my draft guide, you know, it should work. So no matter what you do, I think you can feel confident you're going to have an edge. Word, all right, let's hit, um, let's go black mom, bud. This is a great follow up to your to that question was just ask, if you go RB in the first, which receiver do you like late second, Nico Brown, I'm assuming AJ Brown, George Pickens, Rashi Rice. Oh, that's a tough, he man, it is tough. My, my instant lean is George pickens, but I see the case for all of those guys, to be honest with you, they all have pretty awesome roles. I just think George is going to play in probably the best passing offense among that group. And so even though he might not have the role that a Rashi rice or a Nico Collins has, I think it's going to be offset by just overall opportunity and explosiveness and, you know, that's going to lead the league and drop backs, I think it'd be him or bone X probably. So yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to just punt this question because I have those guys all net, like right after each other in my rankings. Yes, it's one I keep, I keep flipping back and forth on because it is really tough. Yeah, well, I've called on this very show, I've called CD lamb the worst first round pick you can make. So I have to back it up by saying pickens might be the best second round pick you can make. Right. So, so I, I lean pickens there. All right, Mikey Tay asked what's the that's Mike Taylor, by the way, one of our OG charters here. He's amazing. Phenys appoint you to the charters. What's the best landing spot for Stefan digs and does it matter. Absolutely it matters. I think I think digs, I mean, he's a thousand year receiver last year. I'm like a 50% route chair, which is ridiculous. Right. So still still has some stuff in the tank. Scott, for me, it's like for, are we talking fantasy or X's and O's for fantasy. It's got to be. Well, let's do realistic spots. I'll like cancel out Miami or Las Vegas. I don't think he's going to either of those two. Oh, man, Las Vegas would be sweet. They should. They should. Could you imagine digs in Vegas though? That'd be bad. You would move Brock Bauer's up, right? Yeah, I think I would. Yeah, that's a good thing for Brock Bauer's if that happens. Yeah, he needs someone else to defense as the pay attention to for sure. It's about like, yeah, anyways, I don't know. I think fantasy wise, I'm going to say the Washington commanders probably. I mean, that's where he's going to go. It feels like a foregone conclusion at this point. Yeah, it matters for sure. I think digs can play scary Terry's on an island out there right now. It'd be good for scary Terry. Actually, probably. Yeah, you know, yeah. So Hershey forever says digs to the Niners is the most dangerous. Could you imagine him and Evans together like the geriatric unit? Wow. Yeah. Digs and BBL capital Miami would be the worst. Oh my gosh. All right, brain for a brain frog, not brain fog asked, where is the value upside at QB in Superflex leagues? Late round QBs shift into the fourth, sixth round next to wide receiver running back value picks. This is you, Scott. I don't do like a lot of redraft Superflex. Isn't that weird? If I do a redraft, it's usually one QB and I don't know why that is. But yeah, let me, let me pull up my draft guide in Superflex, like the equation, train, changes really dramatically. So it's my exodia quarterback is going to be different in Superflex. And also for 16, like 16 and I'll just give it away. It's Doc Prescott, which is who it was last year. Crazy good value in six point, per passing touchdown leagues in Superflex. I think it's, it's Malik Willis definitely like draft either one of yet. It's Malik Willis. And then Tyler Murray is another good quarterback late. Make sure you, it's just like insane value for the Superflex format. But also like rock, party types are pretty good value. Where's Bonix going? I don't know. I don't like Bonix though. So I kind of do. I mean, he's, yeah, he feels like one of those kind of safer high end QB two types who is going to lead his ADP. Yeah, he led the league in Drop-X last year. Andy runs a little bit. Andy just got up his ankle, but yeah. The ankle wasn't, it's not that bad. It was really bad. It'll be all right. It's like the seventh surgery on that ankle too. Oh, is it actually dang. I didn't know that. Look at beat writer Scott over here telling me what's up with these injuries. But anyways, he leads the league and led the league in Drop-X ecosystem got dramatically improved with Jalen Waddle at receiver. Plus he's going to run a little bit. I still think he'll run a little bit. It's in his DNA. That's why he keeps having surgery on that ankle Scott. Yeah. But all right, we got to get out of here. Yeah, we do. We got to wrap this up. It was awesome. Yeah, exactly. We got to just give him, give him enough to where they want more. That's a taste. Yeah, give him a taste. This was awesome. Chat was popping off again. I see a lot of the same faces in here too. Every time we do a show and I love that for us. That means we have a really solid community here. We're very appreciative to you guys. Thanks for all the amazing questions, the super chats. Yada yada. We'll be back. Should I tease next Friday? Sure. Well, actually, we have another episode coming out later with Danny Kelly. That's one you don't want to miss. Shout out. The next Friday, we have Matt Harmon coming on to live to do a kind of like a reception perception verse ass episode. It's not going to be contentious. I know that's branded as can it's going to be fun. We're talking about our biggest differences and and some lessons learned at wide receiver and stuff like that. It's going to be a really fun episode. So make sure you're back next Friday. And on that note, I'm Brett Whitefield. This is my co-scoff bearer and we are out.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Beat writers are often unreliable for fantasy football projections, as their job is to generate content and positivity, not provide accurate playing-time or usage analysis.
  2. The hosts emphasize that their own film study and analytics are more predictive than beat writer reports, especially since beat writers have limited access to practices.
  3. The 2024 rookie tight end class was historically strong, with Harold Fanon Jr. showing elite run-after-catch ability and the best rookie tape, while Colston Loveland is seen as the best long-term prospect due to his complete skill set.
  4. A-Ronde Gaston’s fantasy ceiling may have been reached due to the Chargers adding other tight ends and limiting his role to passing downs.
  5. The hosts advise ignoring most beat writer noise (95%) and focusing on data-driven analysis for fantasy rankings.

Summary:

In this episode of "School of Scott," hosts Brett Whitefield and Scott Barrett discuss the unreliability of NFL beat writers for fantasy football analysis. Scott argues that beat writers, with a few exceptions like Aaron Wilson and Dan Duggan, are often worthless for projections because their incentives are to generate positive content and fill a 24/7 news cycle, not to provide accurate playing-time forecasts. He notes that his rankings would be better off ignoring 97% of beat writers, as they lack expertise in projecting snaps and opportunities—a view Brett has long held.

They highlight that beat writers have limited practice access and often hype up meaningless training camp observations, like two-running-back sets, which rarely translate to game usage. The hosts then shift to evaluating the 2024 rookie tight end class, which they deem historically great. Scott asks Brett for his tape-based rankings, and Brett surprises him by naming Harold Fanon Jr.

as having the best rookie tape due to his vicious run-after-contact ability and improved route running, despite athleticism concerns. However, Brett predicts Colston Loveland will be the best long-term prospect for his complete skill set. They discuss A-Ronde Gaston, noting his ceiling may be capped due to the Chargers adding other tight ends and limiting his role to passing situations.

Overall, they advise fantasy players to prioritize film study and analytics over beat writer noise.

FAQs

The hosts argue that most beat writers are not experts at projecting playing time or fantasy value, and their reports are often overly positive or based on limited practice observations, making them unreliable for fantasy decisions.

Scott says his rankings improved by ignoring beat writers, as they often produce hype-driven content without real insight into player roles, and their predictions rarely hold up against film study and analytics.

Beat writers only watch the first 15 minutes of practice, which often features basic installations, so reports about player usage or packages are not indicative of regular-season game plans.

Brett Whitefield believes Harold Fanon Jr. had the best rookie tape, praising his elite run-after-catch ability, vicious tackling style, and better-than-expected route running.

Scott notes that Loveland is drafted three to four rounds earlier than Fanon, but Fanon had similar production in his last four games and offers a significant ADP discount, making him a potential value pick.

Gaston is limited as a run blocker and was heavily dependent on passing game scripts, and the Chargers added Charlie Kolar and David Njoku, which could reduce his role.

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