2026 Denver Broncos Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz Burs. Welcome to The Deep Dive, Andy. We're doing the Denver Broncos, third in the AFC West, which I think is incorrect, but we don't make the rules. We go by the highly liquid odds to win markets and in order, right now, the AFC West has the Raiders last. The Broncos, third, the Chargers, second and the Chiefs first. Now, there's not a lot separating Chiefs Chargers Broncos, and if you shop around, you could probably find some differences of opinion out there, but here we are talking about last year's reigning runner up in the AFC, who won 14 games hosted the AFC Championship game. And we're not for a fluky broken ankle could have been the team that got their teeth kicked in by the Seahawks and the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots, because that game was a hot fucking mess. And Jared stood them obviously didn't help, but the I'm a little surprised that with the way their offices went, which is effectively we are running it back, we are taking our advantage of having a quarterback on a rookie deal. We're going to use that to go get an elite weapon. Otherwise, we're basically coming back to going back to war with all of the elite players that made a special last year and got us to 14 wins. We have an intact coaching staff. Like, usually that these kind of fingerprints on a team make a team a little bussy. You know, a lot of people are like, "Oh, here's the problem, here's lies the problem, true." Okay. The other teams in the division not named the Raiders who actually have some fun buzzes of their own with Mendoza and Gubiak, I suppose, in a different sense. One team is getting their quarterback back and that's exciting because he is all that matters in Kansas City apparently. And the other team is getting a genius at offensive coordinator who's back where he should be as an offensive coordinator and not head coach. So there's plenty of buzz around Kansas City and Los Angeles and maybe there's just not enough left. But I'm in the same boat with you and a big part of it comes down to what happened after that fateful Jared Stidham game where they lost what 10 to 7, just an awful awful game. Unwatchable. I dare you. Who was fired after that game, true? Hmm. I mean, not immediately but eventually Diana Rossini got fired. I don't know, I already. Oh, really? Yeah. You got fired after that? I forgot. I did not clap that. He was someone who had spent a lot of time with Sean Payton. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, 12 seasons over two different stints. He was what he was with him as a saint's head coach with saints as well. So somebody that I think somebody that Payton liked and had some respect for and decided, hey, we're close. This isn't, you know, I don't know that it was super knee jerk. I think it was kind of a some of the parts from the team. It's like this defense carried us a lot. We got some stuff out of the offensive times, but we're maybe limited a little here and we're going to find some a different way to do it. Not only that, but the fact that Payton gave a play calling. So there's some weird signals where it's like, does this old, does this crazy old man who by the way, when I was looking for pictures of Sean Payton, he is slowly morphing into mattress Mac. He looks like, when you look at him now, it's like, Oh, no, I used to look like Kevin James. He's on vitamin. Is he on the, he's on the vitamin. Oh, I don't know. He just looks old as shit. I mean, he's not that young anymore, but this crazy old man, is he, is he thinking like this is it? We're going for it. And then obviously the, you know, trading some draft capital for a known quantity to try to help that side of the ball as well, keeping most of the band together on the defense. Yeah, there should be some buzz. I bet this team, I think they, you know, I'm going to try it. You already did. Yeah, I don't care. I guess it's like 11. I'm right off the bat. I'm like, and I know looking at how the schedule breaks. And I feel like it, I may have made a misstep there. And there's a spot probably around the buy that might be a better entry point for this team. Well, like, are you, am I, am I crazy begin with? Am I crazy though? Like, how many people have kind of outwardly profess their love for like the Houston Texans? A moment bunch, a lot of people like that team. I mean, the questions there are much more glaring than they are for the Broncos is basically the same kind of general rubric. You have uber talented defense that's a little scheme agnostic because it's just so much talent, particularly on coverage. And if your offense hits any type of ceiling with Davis Web now calling the plays, then this is like another 14 win season. I think one of the things that does kind of throw some cold water on people's opinion of the Broncos this year, beyond just what you were kind of referencing, which is other teams in the division have reasons to kind of draw your attention away. They overachiefed last year. Peter Python win was 11 and six. They went 14 and three. They had a stretch through the middle of the season where they were flying pretty far under the radar. I think I wanted to start. No one was really, you know, kind of super impressed with anything that Bo Nix had done to that point. But then from week four to week 15, it did not lose. Andy, 11 game win streaks are hard to sustain in the NFL. There were some lucky wins in there, notably the Giants win. Actually, the Jets, the Jets win was pretty lucky. You stunk that day. You won that. You eat that one out 1311 and London. That was my least favorite watch on the int. Was that the, was that the, the shower fart game of the year? That was one of the worst games ever. And that's the problem when you were, when your teams based on like an an all world defense and an offense that he's still kind of finding its legs. If, if you have an off day, it's real off. It can get it. It can just, it can devolve into a very bad football game because it's, when it happens, it seems to happen against bad teams. And then that bad team in a normal situation, well, you just get shit kicked out of you that day. Well, we had a bad day. This other team took advantage of beat us. When you play a bad team that can't, it actually makes it into a really unwatchable football game. Yeah. I think that was the game where Justin Fields had something like 14 yards passing. The Giants game was also, was the next week. And now it was hilarious. Do you remember that one? Yeah. The Giants were up 33 to like eight or something crazy in that one. 26 to eight. They're up 20s. Giants were up 26 to eight. Andy, with five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and lost. That's very, very tough to do. The, Will let's 39 yard field goal as time expired. Took the, the Broncos got the lead, lost the lead, and then got it again. And the final at the, as time expired, it was, it was kind of like that. It was like that Dallas, Washington game where it's like awesome. Crazy, crazy people are scoring. All right. The point is though that I think people will kind of look at that and assume regression is coming. And I think, you know, they'll assume that the Chiefs are going to be tougher. The Chargers are going to be tougher. The Raiders may be tougher. And for all these reasons, good luck getting back to 14 wins. But for me, I mean, if this team avoids, you know, significant injuries, particularly to some of their key defensive players, I don't know how they're not winning games in the regular season. This is a very, very good team. And I think the kind of upside of a player like adding a player like Waddle to this wide receiver room. Like, like, what are you, what are the, like, what are you, what would be a conceivable concern about the way that this team has been rostered? I mean, you have struggled to put together a good white silver room for the better part of a long time now. You've had a bunch of draft picks. You've taken a bunch of bites at the apple over the past two decades. And a lot of the guys, the mims and the franklins and it's like, hey, there's been flashes, but it's never solidified whether it's through injury or how they actually perform. You haven't had that guy been like, all right, this is, you know, this is, this is it. This is a, this is our guy outside of, I mean, did Penter, you rank Sutton, but Sutton's good. Sutton's pretty good, but I mean, he's fine. He's a fine, he's a fine white receiver one. He's a fucking awesome white receiver too. Yeah, that just, you've, you've, you've had a lot of attempts at trying to find that guy at white receiver. And I like, I like doing this where you're a team who's clearly going for it and every freaking, it doesn't matter how good somebody is in college. I remember how good Marvin Harrison was in college. Yeah. I mean, just, I mean, guys sometimes don't translate and well, sometimes we don't know the reasons why. But when you're a team that's going for it and you have the choice between, hey, we can trade up and maybe get one of these rookie receivers and hope it works out. Or we can just give up a little extra and just go get a guy that we know is already good. Hey, this guy is already very good. And if we add him, our white receiver room takes a definite step up. And then yes, Sutton has a two is awesome. You have, you know, a decent running background. Trapman, you could do a lot worse. And you'll have to figure out the slot, I guess, a little bit. It takes a big step forward because the offense, that was, that was something it was missing from the offensive times. So what's your read on the policy and trick for the OC? Because I think you were kind of teasing it and what you were saying earlier. Um, you feel like the moving on from one party, like a trusted consigliary and elevating David Davis Web as aggressively as you did. Like, I think everyone around the league is probably paying attention to that, right? Like Sean Payton is clearly setting up Davis Web to be either his successor in Denver or hired away. Correct? Yeah. Davis Web is so young too. I mean, it wasn't that long ago. I'm like, if you go to this, if you go to the page, I had to pull this up because this was up, I had this up earlier. Uh, his photo is Web with the Texas Red, Texas Tech Red Rangers in 2014. Red Raiders. Yeah. It's okay. It's okay. It's okay. Definitely played for like five teams in the NFL too, you know. Was he a giant? Mostly. He was a giant, a bill of jet. I'm not saying. Maybe you never left the state of New York, New Jersey. Yeah. Um, speaking of Denver quarterbacks, by the way. Uh, did you see Case Keum played this weekend? He's back in our lives. Yeah. He's back up. Um, no, the, uh, but the Davis Web thing is interesting to me because like you can read it a couple of ways. It's pretty clearly in order to keep him in house. They had to elevate them. That's my assumption, right? Like if someone else was going to hire him away and give him play calling duties, then you're, there's nothing you can do. If you elevate him and give him play calling duties, then the only team that could hire him away as a team that is making the head coach. Am I understanding that correctly? Probably. I'm pretty sure that's just the way the way it works. And possibly possibly, I mean, it's, it's tough to take one of those lateral moves where I'm going to go be an O C for another team. Unless it's these O C's that don't call plays. Exactly. Yeah. That's the part. Yeah. That's the rough. Yeah. So pretty clearly there's signal, I think. And someone like Sean Payton deciding like, we got a hot hand here. Gotta get him into this role. Gotta keep him in the house. And he's expecting he will probably. You could do it. If the Broncos get a one seed this year, if they make a deep run, the playoffs, if Bonix takes a step forward, Davis Web is getting head coaching interviews next cycle. He may not get hired. He may need to do this for a couple of years, but I'm guessing that there is general interest in him as kind of a young, bright offensive mind. And that's why it's doing this. Is that. That's crazy to you. That's the, I mean, that's my big takeaway from him. His coaching career started in 2023. It's Sean McVeigh asks. Great. I mean, in terms of how like he went from the quarter, but they brought him to be the quarterbacks coach here. He got moved up to pass game coordinator and then boom, guess what? You're calling plays. Not just, hey, I need to get a step in and help me game plan because I'm the play collar. You're, you've done and shown me enough over the last couple of years that I want you calling these plays on game. Yeah. Micro management policy injury concerns over Sean Payton taking back play calling. If this, if there is regression in the air. Because that's a thing that could happen. You have a guy that's called plays plenty of times that could say, hey, we need to fix this right now. I mean, I think that's, that's a panic button. And I think if that happens, I don't know. So he could, does it, does it ever feel like that fixes anything? Can you think of a situation where like Dan Campbell took play calling duties and the lions are suddenly fixed? No. No. No, it's usually. Or if that happens, we're drowning here and trying to grab the line. Yeah. So if that happens, I mean, it feels like things have gone awry anyway. And I don't care. Okay. All right. I'm going to go. Bones did break his ankle in the bills playoff win. The. His performance in that game was surprisingly plucky. I thought. Compared to. You know how he looked the previous year playing the bills. Now the bills defense was very, very bad. And they were also coming off of a game where they were playing in Florida Jackson had fought very hard to win, where as the Broncos were on by. So that matters. But you know, I think what. Bones did over the balance by. So much easier than playing the. But yeah, I mean, you know, the what the Broncos did over the balance of the season. I thought was, you know, and what Bones did over the balance of season. And in that playoff game was I thought, you know, very positive signal about. His growth in his. His arc, his development arc. Is he perfect quarterback? Absolutely not. But is he a quarterback that has a relatively high floor when you put him behind the best offensive line of football and have. A played designer and play collar like Sean Payton in the building. Is he capable of giving you 66 to 75th percentile? Yes. I would say he is. And he proved that last year. I thought pretty clearly. I mean, his weaknesses were very obvious. I thought. He is a player that does not really like to. He doesn't go for the high degree of difficulty stuff. He throws a ball that if it's not. If a wide receiver is unable to make a play on the ball, it's not getting picked off. He's a very safe quarterback. I would say he's not a risk taker. He's not a gunslinger. Uh, he's fat. I mean, he's fast remains to be seen if the broken ankle affects his. Fastest man on the field. High watermark that he hit as a was that his rookie year. First game. He was the fastest player in football in this scramble. Sneaky fast. Sneaky fast. Remain to be seen if he continues to develop that part of his game or if he opts for more of a, you know, pocket quarterback role. Uh, to, you know, just as he is on the end. Um, and I think the additional skill in the wide receiver room. Presumably will unlock parts of the field that he was unwilling to take on. Like over the middle. And maybe it's just never going to be in his nature to do the risky stuff. And if that is the case. And next is not ever really kind of move to the next stage of quarterback play. Then to me, the Broncos are kind of stuck in purgatory where they are going to win a lot of regular season games. And then at some point, playing out in the playoffs. Which is why I wouldn't take them on in the AFC right now. Yeah. So people, people work kind of, oh, why didn't he play in that preseason game? Well, people don't always play in the preseason guy. A lot of, a lot of starters didn't, a lot of starters don't play in the preseason. He's a full, he's 100% fully participant. He has no restrictions in camp. It seems like everything's fine. This was a broken ankle that you couldn't tell was broken during the game and at the end there. As he was leaving the field and whatnot, it wasn't the Gordon Hayward. Oh, my God, his foot's backwards. I'm trying to think of the worst, how many, how many days after you heard about the injury? Yeah, it's good. After how many days. That one's bad. There's so many. There's so many. That one is good. How many days after you heard about the injury, did you secretly suspect that he heard it celebrating in the locker room? Like immediately. No, I know, but for how long did you maintain the potential? I'm going to need to see it here all the facts. I'm expecting somebody will leak that here. in the locker room. Yeah, I thought something like that, did he fall down the stairs no way home or what? Because it didn't seem like an injury that happened during the game. No, I'm with you there. So yeah, I think to me at least, success for the Broncos this year is another high seed, a deep or playoff run. Yeah, at least a more competitive effort in AFC Championship game, maybe even Super Bowl appearance. But I think there's a world where, but we've seen what Boenix can do. We know what his ceiling is and that just his general demeanor as far as lack of being a risk taker does keep this offense with a lower ceiling than the other offenses in the AFC that could hit a higher potential. Right? And I, when I compare them to the other kind of high floor teams like the Texans in the AFC, to me, they are already a clear step ahead because of the quality of the offensive depth chart. And just in general, the belief and the voices in the room know what the fuck they're doing. Whereas I don't know that I would say that with confidence about the Texans. And I don't know, high floor team is going to be in the playoffs, unless there's some cash off injury, I think. And then really it's just a matter of does Boenix shine in the playoffs, does he have his Joe Flacco moment or is Boenix always going to be stuck in this category of the guy that's not going to elevate you? Yeah. All right, let's get through some of the offseason, the rest of the offseason. Like we mentioned, the 14 wins, the one seed, the bad beat, having to start Jared Stidham in a very important playoff game. RIP, great offensive flying last year, great defense, a lot of fun names. They lost John Franklin Myers to Tennessee. He mattered. He was about the only thing that they lost that that is probably going to matter. He is an important part of that defense. They still have a ton of good players, but he was a really good pass rusher. He had eight sacks. Elite run defender. Yeah, now they're going to lead on, you know, there's a rookie that might have to fill in little outside of, you know, DJ Jones and Roach in the middle there on the defense line. They're both very good players, but John Franklin Myers will be missed. Yes, you can't keep everybody. PJ Lock to Dallas. He played 10 games, he used course special teams guy, but he's gone as well as drag green law who was more of a cap savings type thing. And then you added Jalen Waddle. We mentioned the trade that gave up the, what, a first third and a fourth for Waddle and a fourth. Good job. You picked up another safety in for agency Tyson Anderson from Cincinnati. Is that it? Is that the whole offscuse? That's pretty much how you don't, if you don't let anybody out of the building and you're a very good team, you don't need to add a lot. And when you did add a lot, you added Jalen Waddle. And then obviously your draft class isn't incredibly weak because you didn't have a first or a second rounder in this one. So your first pick was Tyler, oh, Knightham, as I mentioned, an interior defensive tackle, probably going to be part of the rotation and probably needed to be part of that rotation with the loss of Franklin Myers. Franklin Myers, I see his name right? I'd keep mixing the Jonathan Franklin Myers. Jonathan Franklin Myers, you drafted a running back in the fourth round. He used third on your depth chart, Jonah Coleman from Washington, with the pick that did come back from Miami, you took an offensive lineman from Boise State, Cage Casey, Titan Justin Jolly from NC State in the fifth, and then some depth elsewhere at safety, Titan and Mr. Relevant, Red Murdoch from Buffalo, the NCAA's all-time leader in force fumbles. That is a hell of a nugget. That's what the internet said about him. These guys who are like, it's always some guy who played in like the Mac and played like five years at lineman. Apparently he's looking okay in camp for a guy that was drafted in seventh round. They also signed 40 undrafted free agents. So many on this and third and fourth stringers here. But some of those guys might hit who knows. All right, it was a good off-season because of the Jaylen Lotta move in my opinion. And the Franklin Myers loss is the one that I have my own. Because the defense, like you're running it, other losses on defense were their worst defense suppliers in my opinion. So they're not really that big of a loss. And the guys you're back feeling with were pretty good. So I think in general this defense to me looks like they have the talent to be a top five unit if they're healthy. However, they are clearly a little bit fragile because the depth is now going to be tested. Is that fair way to put it? That is, yeah, I mean that's what happens when you get good. You start to suck because those guys who are like, hey, I could start somewhere else, but I'm stuck behind another all pro. Maybe I maybe I view myself as some rogue. Go get some better money and more playing time elsewhere. Well, I hope Red Murdoch makes this team and I hope he has it. It's great, another great name. By the way, I had tip to Trace's Mac. Do you see him kick and feel goals? 50-7, 50-80 ardor that got taken off the board with the penalty? That Trace Mac kick. So Red Murdoch went to the University of Buffalo, where he set the record. In three seasons, by the way, he redshirted, only played a little bit in his freshman year. So he did this in three years. He broke the NCAA career record for forced fumble is previously held by. Same university. Oh, the Clil Mac? Yes, that's funny. Oh, no way. It was, yes. Previously held by another. Oh, my God. Clil Mac, I figured I'd get it if I gave you that. That's the way to fuck reading gas. I don't think I know a third Buffalo player. There was one running back, it was a running back, it was pretty good too. Ah, whatever. Andy. Let's get into the ratings. Coaching real quick, fans is back, Rizz is back, Logan Kilgore is your new quarterbacks coach. Good call. The Rizzler, I forgot, was the special teams coordinator. Good special teams coach. Yeah. Yeah. Global run organization. I think I like what they're done. Before we get into the ratings, Andy, the Denver Broncos preview podcast is brought to you by circa professional football contests. The clear number one football contests in the game and the margin is so great between circa and the next best that it's not even worth measuring. The. Inmeasurable. The contests, of course, are run by circa out of Las Vegas, which means you need to be there in person to sign up. If you're gonna do that, you know what a great time to go is? Contest sign up weekend. There will be college football on. There will be great events like actually like the open bars and social stuff that they did last year was just flat out awesome. You go there, you sign up in person, you find a proxy, presumably Vegas Maddie who kicks major ass, and then you can play for anywhere. You can get a team of friends together and split the entry if you want. You can consolidate many, many entries if you are a highly liquid player, or you can play grandissimo, where you're putting $100,000 at stake to win presumably three, four million, maybe more. Anything else you want to say about the contests, Andy? No, apparently most people sign up at circa, but you can also sign up at the D and Silverton Casino Lodge, the Tuskegee Switzing Casino in Southern Nevada, or Reno. Ledgen's Bay Casino. Can you tell me what, down legend's Bay Casino is? Parks? Yes, I've been there. I've been to Sparks and I've been to that casino. You might have been up that way. Yeah, I've been there. If you are in, if you're like, I'm not getting to Vegas this year. Right on the trucky river. If you're gonna go float the trucky river, you're gonna float the trucky river, you're gonna go right by it. You might as well stop and sign up for the circa contests when you're there. All right, with that, the quarterback OC rating for the. I stayed at the D. I thought the D was fine. Again, I didn't spend much time. My room was, my room I took like three naps and went there for the day. I thought the walk on Fremont Street between the D and D. and Circa was significantly gnarlier than in years past. - So it's fine in the middle of the day when everyone's out having fun. If you're doing it solo at like, for leaving the lacedy club or at it's grabs. Yeah, the crowd at four in the morning is a little more solicitor-y. (laughing) - Yes, yes. Yeah, it was a crowd. That said, the ratings for the Broncos are just glowing numbers everywhere. But the one thing that I think is going to ultimately determine is this the team that you are talking about power rated in the top three or a team that is kind of just in the top 10 is the QBOC number. And for me going into the season, I'm coming in a little bit low at a 4.7 for Nick's plus web. And I'm prepared to be adjusting and aggressively adjusting this one. We're going to get signal right the fuck away when they play the chiefs on Monday night football week one. We will get signal is Bo Nick's healthy? Have they added new layers to his game? Is Davis Web up to the job? And for those, I'm kind of middle-shotting this with a four point this, what is it, a 4.7. I'm middle-shotting this with a 4.7 because there's world where we get signal from that game and I'm turning this down into high threes and then there's world where we get signal from this game and I'm going up to like five six. I don't think there's any world where I'm really kind of making the case that Bo Nick's is a MVP candidate this year. They're going to win a lot of games. He might get that kind of shine but ultimately I just I don't see him doing enough in terms of high leverage, difficult playmaking to want consideration as the MVP. So yeah, what do you think the highest you will go with Bo Nick? Where are you now? - I'm at a five. I'm in the same spot. - How high are you willing to go? - You know, you cut down on some of the turnover worthy plays. You're pushing it down the field a little more. And again, it's, it's an OC QB number. I got to see a really nice game plan that's utilizing Waddle and Sutton to the best of their abilities. You know, it could be up there, it could be sixes. It's just, I don't know that Nick's is gonna ever get to that stratosphere of the elite elite quarterbacks. But what he does inside of this offense could be, could be special with, you know, he's still a Sean Payton at the helm. He's, you know, he's still going to be a big part of this no matter who's calling plays. He's still a huge part of that install. And that's another reason why my numbers low. Like yes, I love the fact that they brought this guy in. Buffalo tried to get him out of the coaching staff while he was there apparently too. Like they had this guy as a backup quarterback or practice squad, what was it? And the bills wanted him to come in and be a QB coach right away. And he said, I got a little more juice in the tank. I'm gonna play for like one more year. I'm gonna go back to the giants, give one more try. But I think just, it speaks to like we said, how highly thought of he is, especially by Payton, but he's never done it. I can't just give him high rating off the vibes and the feels. So yeah, kind of like you said, middle of the pack for me. - Okay. And I'm part of this is Sean Payton. I know you're not the OC, but you kind of are part of the OC. - Year three for Nick's. He took his, he was good his rookie year. Not great. He was a little better his sophomore year that came with a whole bunch more wins. But really small incremental step forward from him. I could see another one, but a small incremental step forward from where he was to where he could go to me still kind of has him on the outside of the top 10. So not expecting the world from Mr. Nick's. The skill position group dragged down by the depth, the tight end and running back. I like the wide receiver one and two. I like building an offense around those players. I think this running back room has huge questions both from a health standpoint and from a are you actually good standpoint? And I don't really understand what their intention is with this group of tight ends. So I'm not a, did I save my number? - 5.2 is what I had. - 5.2, 5.2. - Yeah, I'm right around there, I'm at a 4.9, which felt bad having Sutton and Waddle on there, but yeah, that's a slot. It's looking like Pat Bryant might be the guy. The tight end room is like you said, I'm not super sure what the plan is there by bringing, you got Ingram, Trapman and Justin Jolly. And then the depth kind of stings in the injuries. I'm probably gonna bump this up a little once I know everyone's healthy, but like Dobbins, Waddle, Mims, all have had little, you know, hiccups banged, banged up soft tissue stuff here in camper ready. So I'm not banking on this team being 100% right now. - Okay, offense in line for me is a 7.1. I feel like this is potentially low. That makes them a top five unit for me in the NFL. They were very, very, very healthy and available last year, especially their key players. There was an argument to be made that Garrett Bowles should have been in the mix for protector of the year. He was probably nominated, right? He was in the finalists. - He was, he was. - Yeah, he deserved it. - He's awesome. He might be your second best offensive lineman because right guard Quinn Miners is an absolute budding superstar as far as the right guard could be. And then Mike McGlinchee, he's still around. Notre Dame, top 10 pick for the Niners back in the day. I remember correctly, same year as who's the guy in the Indy, Quentin Nelson. - Quentin Nelson came out this year. - Over 1.5. - Over 1.5, Notre Dame players, that was good. Mike McGlinchee is still, yeah, RIP in peace, five times. But yeah, Ben Powers Good, Luke Wanberg Good, Quinn Garrett, awesome, McGlinchee, fine. This is a very, very, very, very high floor offensive one. Do you agree? This is your number one, number two. - Yeah, I had 8.5. - 8.5. - I do offensive line a lot more. Just here is the numbers I'm plugging in. What are you gonna give me if everybody plays? And then I give you a little bonus if everybody played, if there's continuity and there's a shitload of continuity and so many good players, bowls, minors. My, like, what is center of your weeks back then? - Yeah. - Wattenberg is like the-- - That's the thing, the center's my week. - Center's my week's back, but, like, everybody's center kind of sucks. So, it's not like, you, there's not like, everybody's center sucks except for Casey's, right? Cree down freeze the only, like, center in the league. As far as I could tell you that. I don't know. It's a really good unit. I'm probably loyal. I'm that simple when I'm probably low. 8.5. - 8.5, yes. - So that makes the offense for you, it makes the offense for you a top half offense. Is that right? - Oh, look at my percentile. Yeah. It's up there. Let's see. - I have them as a 55th percentile offense. - Yeah, I'm 558, I think. I gotta pull my chart. It's up there though. Yeah, I mean, still, we're pretty close in the quarterback number and that does a lot of the lifting. The weighted EPA for them as an offense last year kind of had them in the middle of the pack. So I didn't feel like I was way off having them at 55th percentile as a total unit. But again, if a small step forward for NICS, medium step forward for NICS, all of a sudden we're talking about a very, very, very robust rating for this team. Because the defense is untouchably solid and it starts with the coverage unit, which for me is the second highest in football after Philly and actually third highest. I have Philly and Seattle higher. I have Denver a little bit higher than Houston. They are 7.1 for me for coverage. I took a little heat off of them for runstop 'cause of Franklin Myers leaving. I'm a 6.7 and past rush I have rated 6.8. So in totality this is my second best defense with a 69th percentile. How about you? - A little higher, a little higher. Yeah, I'm at least 70 something I have to look but runstop is the lowest of the three grades, yeah. That's the seven, it's still very good. Seven out of 10, it's still pretty good. Like you still have Alex Singleton. You still have, God who's the guy came over from the night or see other year? - Funga, it's strong safety. You have Brandon Jones like that. Guys that are very. additive to the runstop up front. And then you have Zach Allen who is going to play a lot of steps and struggles a little bit. Jonathan Franklin Myers leaving hurts a little bit. DJ Jones, good good runstopper, Roach. Beads to improve and then you have a rookie behind him. So I have that as a seven past rush. I have a 7.9. That's second highest league for me. Just Benito Allen Cooper, I mean, losing Franklin Myers stinks, but it's still one of the best past rushes. Love, love some Benito. Thank you. He's tragically underrated with just 18 sacks 81 pressures. He has a DPI resume. He just doesn't have to name or the service time yet. He was the go favorite at one point two years ago. Him and TGOI, right? And then ultimately, who can install it? Was it Sir Tan? Sir Tan has a DPI. I forget who got it that year. Anyway, yeah, it's a, it's a very, very good defensive. Just a quick note, we haven't even mentioned Vance Joseph's name outside of I think you said he was retained. Is there anything in his scheme that really gets excited? Or is it literally just he's looking with elite ingredients? It feels like it's 60, 40 elite ingredients. He's always been a very good coordinator. When he was asked to do more, that was tough, but he brings a lot to the way they rotate that front around some of the past rush. I do want to kind of point out one thing about this secondary. When you're struggling to find a way to get Jade Baron onto the field, that is a hell of a good problem to have. Like they have exceptional depth here in the secondary. And I'm kind of intrigued to see if they can figure out a way to play with five, six defensive backs on the field most of the time. I'm guessing that's what they will intend to do. I think this is a unit that could make things very, very, very tough on a opposing quarterbacks. And obviously if you have a player who's as good as Patsur Tain, then that makes everything else easier. But Jacquan Mcmillan graded out phenomenally last year. Riley Moss actually looks like he might be the weak link. I'm kind of wondering if they pull the plug on it. I think some of it was just like, well, what am I going to do? Like Mcmillan's in the lead, nickel corner, Patsur Tain's out there. A fungus roaming around sometimes, branded Jones. You got a couple of these linebackers as well. One linebacker can cover. And I guess I'm going to throw it Riley Moss. He had 125 targets thrown at him. Is that the high water? I don't know. I had to go look at those. That's a lot of those. Jacquan Mcmillan gets a special mention Andy for winning a playoff game. Question mark. Is that as pick six? But the rip the ball out from playing Cook's interception at the end of that bills game. That was a good play. I'd forgot about that. They lose that game. If he doesn't get that ball. That's over. Those Patriots as your in box pro is your is your FC title game. Riley Moss had an interception against Atlanta. Yeah. They made Josh Allen look bad in that game. And I really want to give the defense credit for that. Well, it's fun to give Joseph his quotes. They're making turnover superiority. The defense is good, but we can be better. Now that I've had a few years. A lot of these guys we've had several years working with. I talk about the continuity at the offensive line. Continuity at a lot of this defense too is great. So be interesting to see if there's anything up his sleeve this year. Fun. Well, if you haven't already guessed, we have some pretty elite numbers here for the Denver Broncos in totality. You are lower on coaching than I am. I tend to have a very favorable rating for Sean Payton, particularly his in game adjustments. I think I've always been one of his just, you know, kind of up his sleeve has the right adjustments for everything. His fourth down decision making stinks, but that's because he's an old man. What are you going to do? Am I too high on coaching? Six point seven. A lot of my mind is just based on, you know, aggressiveness and stuff. Maybe I'm a little low. Special teams, do you're a little lower than me? Are you a little higher than me? Sorry, four point five. Will that's going to kick your 80 yard of this year in my high? You can bet on it. I think the long skill goal prop has set it like 68 and a half. What? Where? Everywhere. You can bet on that if you want, if you want like the record to be broken. Go look good for it. People are trying like a lot of really long field goals, especially one with lots, you know, half his game should be an altitude. Rizzies a top tier coordinator. So good defender, good special teams. All right. Your final percentile is a 61.9, I'm a 57.9. You are a plus 3.43. I'm a plus 3.21. Andy the market right now on Denver Broncos has them at a 1.8. Disrespectful. Oh my goodness. Do you see this Monday night football opener? What is going on? What is happening? Let's switch over to the schedule. Let's look at this opener. At Kansas City, Banger of a Monday night. Way to close the first week, long first week because we're starting early. Yeah, probably going to be betting that. So the nasty pass rush against hobbled quarterback coming back. We'll see. We'll see how I'm going to save my Pat my home thoughts for the Kansas City pod, but they're not going to be going. I'll give you a preview. Yeah, he's not going to give any younger. Not the easiest schedule, though. This is the first place schedule you play a ton of tough teams. Your first cupcake is week seven. You have, you know, your favorite over Jacksonville, but that's a team a lot of people have a lot of hopes for this year. And that's a tough one. And then you get the Rams, the Niners, the Chargers, the Seahawks. That's why I said, perhaps I made a misstep with not just letting that stuff come and go. And if they're three and three, then firing on them to when they have seen it, like 15 or 18 to one. I agree. I'm better. I'm better now. Now when they're five and one. Well, yeah. So that's the question. So the if you're looking at the schedule that we have live on YouTube as post listening and podcast form, the Denver Broncos right now with the look ahead lines are underdogs in five of their first six games. Now none of them are by more than two. Well, now the the Casey Denver lines move to two and a half. I don't know if you've seen that. So it's we have five games where they're two and a half point dogs. Can we do a look ahead? Damn it. Damn it. Patrick stole my joke. I was going to say, can we get a five leg teaser of Denver week one week three week four week five weeks six and hope that they keep it inside eight and a half points in every one of those games is like 23 points combined. All of them. All of them. Yeah. I mean, you're going up against some good offenses, but like the like we learn with the the defense is going to make your the defense is going to make a good quarterbacks look bad it will. So yeah, you got a five you got a five leg you got a five leg teaser with just Denver across six weeks there. I don't know. There's a there's a role of the dice here where they're oh and six, right? Yeah, I mean, that's a thing. I can absolutely happen. Those are some tough defenses you're playing. Get the ramps in Seattle, right? That's not easy. Thursday night football. They lose to the defending champion Seattle. See Hawks to go oh and six. You have an extra week for Sean Payton to figure out what he's going to do as he is taking back play calling from Davis Web going into the Arizona game. Yeah, I could see it. I could see it. The schedule makes me less inclined to be a negable about the bronchus. And then you know, we've talked about that a few times. We've talked about that a few times. There is a I'm making a number for week one against the kids of the chiefs. I'm making a power number, but you also have to start weighing in the schedule when you're looking at some of these season-long stuff and, you know, there's such as this is an absolute Danish of a schedule because you have a niche soft metal and there's going to be a bunch of wins in that middle part of the schedule and then, you know, come what may at the end, it's not an easy ending with Buffalo, New England chargers, but two of those three games are at home where they got to come to, you know, altitude, the chargers coming to play outside in altitude in January. So you have some advantages there, even with some tough games, New England one's going to be an absolute banger, I hope, because we were robbed of an absolute banger, but we should have had last season against the Patriots, but you should get a bunch of wins in the middle of the schedule, you just got to withstand the storm to start the year. And if you do well on that storm, then you're getting the one seed. Yep. You play on Black Friday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I mean, your violent past rush against Aaron Rogers is almost too much to, I'm just delighted at the idea that Denver might be a one and a half point favorite in that game. I think that that matchup would make me want to lay as much as three on Denver for opener, by the way, I have cheeses of favorite, but it is not by any kind of points, it is less than a point. That is going to be a pretty decent opportunity, I think, to take on Denver money line on my football, playing on Christmas versus Buffalo, actually, wow, did you say this already, the Buffalo and New England back to backers, that was your playoffs last year, and they are Christmas and third bang bang same sequence. That's cool. I like that. And what is F. Thanks is that black Friday. That's black for us. Yeah. Black Friday at Pittsburgh, fun one. Yeah. Yeah. So we didn't mention that with, we didn't mention that in the last podcast, but no prime 10 games for the Raiders. Sorry. Yeah. Well, plenty. Denver made up of that with five or six years, difficult travel in the back half of the season. It should be noted. You get a couple of trips east in a three week stretch. You get, actually, you get you're going east to Pittsburgh to the Jets and to the Patriots. All in a pretty tight time window. You're playing the Jets coming off of there by scary, not really. And yeah, I think the teams on the schedule where you're going against a quarterback who's, you know, a bit underwhelming or your opportunities to really flex here. We're going to have some interesting conversations about how many points are we lying with the Broncos and some of these spots when they're going up against middle to bad quarterbacks. The type of team that I am concerned about the Broncos performing well against is what. I suppose an offensive coordinator that can score, you know, even against a tough defense offense beats defense every time. I feel like I feel like I feel like any elite rushing attacks scares me if I'm a Broncos backer because if you can generate significant rushing success against our front. You can play more base defense. I think that affects their advantage a little. And if you can run the ball in the Broncos consistently, kind of kind of keep their offense, not give their offense as many chances. You're going to keep them in the teams. Do you know what I'm saying? Yeah. So like a strong real strong running team Rams is a good example week three, right? Like you're going to have a tough time with the Rams. If the Rams offensive line is fully intact in that game, that looks like a bad matchup. Niners potentially the same story. There's not many other teams on here, though, that I would qualify as like running team that should scare you Buffalo on Christmas. You know, you're not you're not playing many elite rushing teams. So not a lot of reason to think that you don't have a chance in a lot of these games where your small dogs are small favorite. So I think it's still fair to have some cautious optimism about the Broncos heading into the season, even with that start where their dogs in five or six. Yeah, I like to buy the buys in a nice spot. Yeah, you're facing one team off their buy and it's the Jets. Yeah, you can probably can probably make up for that. But yeah, weeks, three, three, there's kind of brutal. All right, so here's the thing, what's the playoff picture going to look like and how much is success in the playoffs going to depend on them having the one seat again. Yeah, that's going to be tough. It's such a tougher schedule and. I hate to be a prisoner of what we just saw, but I feel like they have like one playoff win in them, right? I feel like they draw a team where you're in the wildcard round, for instance, if they're hosting the wildcard round and you have a team with an offense that's not super balanced or it's not run doesn't have a specially strong rushing attack. You could probably win that game, but then you're going to run into the likes of a Baltimore or a Buffalo. And they're going to be able to play a little bit of keep way against you. And then you're in trouble. Yeah, what are the odds you play a division foe in the playoffs at some point. Pretty high. That's pretty high. Yeah, pretty high. I mean, if Mike McDaniel gets a dangerous rushing attack going in LA, then that's a problem for you for winning the division, right? Do you agree with me that a team that can really run the ball efficiently and effectively is the only offense that are going to succeed against them? It's not only the weak spot of the defense and you know quote unquote weak spot because it's still very good, but. And you know, just lower the variance by limiting possessions. Don't turn it into a game where you got to go out there and keep defending that offense because I do think the offense takes a nice step forward. The defense is hard to predict. Stay that elite. I mean, most conventional wisdom tells you the defense takes a step back just because it's hard to stay at that elite level over and over again. And then if the other teams have to run the ball and you're not, you know, you're not winning the turnover battle to three nothing. You're going to be in close games and you're relying on a third year starter and a rookie play collar to win close games, so it'll be tough. Okay, I feel like there's an stage of elimination bet that would be more fun than hoping they can win three games in the AFC playoffs. Right, like there's just too many potential AFC playoffs, who I think kind of fit the puzzle well, where you are going to be your offense is going to have to step up to get the job done and get to the next stage. And I'm not going to probably have a single future on the on the outside of division and I think timing the division bet gets tricky because I do think they will win week one against the Chiefs. So betting plan for me for the Broncos is going to be going into the season with them at best price I can get for the West. And I'm probably going to play a stage of elimination bet like loses in the division around or loses in the conference championship game if I can get a price that's big enough. You can get probably find a 225 on the AFC West, so I mean, if you think they began to city got to grab that now, like I said, Benito was kind of interesting for DPI, but man, it feels like feels like you might just have a repeater there. And I don't know if the number I took a little, but I don't know if the numbers quite big enough. I don't know what that'll set leaves for like awards stuff. Sean Payton seconding coach of the year, you know, you don't win coach of the year coming off a 14 win season. It just doesn't work that way. Who's your POI candidate, what will maybe I don't know that volume's not going to be there compared to some of the elite receivers that are going to get 150 targets. It's hard to see an award outside of maybe a defensive player or protector of the year. I don't know if I could win minors. I agree. All right. Well, I think the market is going to warm up on these guys pretty quickly. If they do exceed expectations in the early going against the very difficult schedule and outside of the Rams game, I, I'm expecting pretty positive outcome. Two and one going into the Niners game. That's the swing game on whether they finish four or two or three in the opinion in that first, first six. Okay, they'll be trading them. Maybe live trade them. Maybe I sell off my positions. I'm taking a couple of round trips and I heard something. Oh, let's go Broncos. It'll be fun. The last two for this division unwinds, they'll be a lot of fun because there's a lot going on in Los Angeles, but you still cheating. [MUSIC PLAYING] That's right. [MUSIC PLAYING]