2026 Denver Broncos Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Dive, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dynzik, powered by BetSports. Welcome to The Deep Dive. Andy, we're doing the Denver Broncos third in the AFC West, which I think is incorrect. But we don't make the rules. We go by the highly liquid odds to win. We go by the highly liquid odds to win markets. And in order, right now, the AFC West has the Raiders last, the Broncos third, the Chargers second, and the Chiefs first. Now, there's not a lot separating Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos. And if you shop around, you could probably find some differences of opinion out there. But here we are talking about last year's reigning runner up in the AFC, who won 14 games, hosted the AFC championship game. And were it not for a fluky broken ankle, could have been the team that got their teeth kicked in by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots. Because that game was a hot fucking mess. And Jared Stidham obviously didn't help. But I'm a little surprised. That with the way their offseason went, which is effectively, we are running it back. We are taking our advantage of having a quarterback on a rookie deal. We're going to use that to go get an elite weapon. Otherwise, we're basically going back to war with all of the elite players that made a special last year and got us to 14 wins. We have an intact coaching staff. Usually, these kind of fingerprints on a team make a team a little buzzy. A lot of people are like, oh, shh. So herein lies the problem. Herein lies the problem, Drew. Okay. The other teams in the division not named the Raiders, who actually have some fun buzz of their own with Mendoza and Kubiak, I suppose, in a different sense. One team is good. One team is getting their quarterback back, and that's exciting because he's all that matters in Kansas City, apparently. And the other team is getting a genius at offensive coordinator who's back where he should be as an offensive coordinator and not a head coach. So there's plenty of buzz around Kansas City and Los Angeles. Maybe there's just not enough left, but I'm in the same boat with you. And a big part of it comes down to what happened after that fateful Jared Stidham. Game where they lost, what, 10 to 7? Just an awful, awful game. Unwatchable. I dare you to watch that one. If you're a Broncos fan. But who was fired after that game, Drew? I mean, not immediately, but eventually Diana Rossini got fired. Go there. I don't know. William Barty. Oh, really? Yeah. He got fired after that? Oh, I forgot. I did not clock that. And he was someone who had spent a lot of time with Sean Payton. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, 12 seasons over two different stints. He was with him as a Saints head coach, with the Saints as well. So somebody that I think somebody that Payton liked and had some respect for and decided, hey, we're close. This isn't, you know, I don't I don't know that it was super knee jerk. I think it was kind of a some of the parts from the team. It's like this defense carried us a lot. We got some stuff out of the offense at times, but we're maybe limited a little here and we're going to find some a different way to do it. Not only that, but the fact that Payton gave a play calling. So there's some weird signals where it's like, does this old does this crazy old man who, by the way, when I say crazy old man, I mean, I don't mean crazy old man. I was looking for pictures of Sean Payton. He is slowly morphing into Mattress Mac. He looks like when you look at him now, it's like, oh, no, I used to look like Kevin James. Is he on vitamin? Is he on the he's on the vitamin now? I don't know. He just looks old as shit. I mean, he's not that young anymore, but it's this crazy old man. Is he is he thinking like this is it? We're going for it. And then obviously the, you know, trading some draft capital for a known quantity to try to help that side of the ball as well. Keeping most of the band together on the defense. Yeah, there should be some buzz. I bet this team. I think they, you know, I'm going to try it. You already did. Yeah, I don't care. I guess it's like 11. I'm right off the bat. I'm like, and I know looking at how the schedule breaks and I feel like it. I may have made a misstep there. And there's a spot probably around the by that might be a better entry point for this team. Well, like, are you am I am I crazy? With am I crazy, though? Like, how many people have kind of outwardly professed their love for like the Houston Texans? A bunch. A lot of people like that team. Oh, I mean, the questions there are much more glaring than they are for the Broncos is basically the same kind of general rubric. You have uber talented defense. That's a little scheme agnostic. Because. It's just so much talent, particularly on coverage. And. If your offense hits any type of ceiling with Davis Webb now calling the plays, then this is like another 14 win season. I think one of the things that does kind of throw some cold water on people's opinion of the Broncos this year, beyond just what you were kind of referencing, which is other teams in the division have reasons to kind of draw your attention away. They overachieved last year. They're Pythagoras. Win was 11 and six. They went 14 and three. They had a stretch through the middle of the season where they were flying pretty far under the radar. You know, one and two start. No one was really, you know, kind of super impressed with anything that Bo Nix had done to that point. But then from week four to week 15, they did not lose. Andy, 11 game win streaks are hard to sustain in the NFL. There were some. There were some lucky wins in there, notably the Giants win. Actually, the Jets. The Jets win was pretty lucky. You stunk that day. You won that one out. 13, 11 and London. That was my least favorite watch of the was that the was that the the shower fart game of the year? And that was one of the worst games. That's the problem when you are when your team's based on like an an all world defense and an off. That is still kind of finding its legs. If you have an off day. It's real off. It can get it can just it can devolve into a very bad football game because when it happens, it seems to happen against bad teams. And then that bad team in a normal situation, you just get kicked out of you that day. Well, we had a bad day. This other team took advantage and beat us. When you play a bad team that can't, it actually makes it into a really unwatchable football. Yeah, I think that was the game where Justin Fields had something like 14 yards passing. The Giants game was also was the next week. And that was hilarious. Do you remember that one? Yeah, the Giants were up 33 to like eight or something crazy in that one. 26 to eight. They were up 20. Giants were up 26 to eight. Andy with five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and lost. That's very, very tough to do. And Will Lutz, 39 yard field goal as time expired, took the Broncos, got the lead, lost the lead and then got it again. And the final as time. It was it was kind of like that. It was like that Dallas Washington game where it's like awesome. Crazy, crazy. People are scoring. All right. The point is, though, that I think people will kind of look at that and assume regression is coming. And I think, you know, they'll assume that the Chiefs are going to be tougher. The Chargers are going to be tougher. The Raiders may be tougher. And for all these reasons, good luck getting back to 14 wins. But for me, I mean, if this team avoids, you know, significant injuries, particularly to some of their key defensive players, I don't know how they're not winning games in the regular season. This is a very, very good team. And I think the kind of upside of a player like adding a player like Waddle to this wide receiver room, like they're. Like, what are you what are the what are you can what would be a conceivable concern about the way that this team has been rostered? i mean you have struggled to put together a good wide receiver room for the better part of a long time now where you you've you've you've had a bunch of draft picks you've taken a bunch of bites at the apple over the past geez decade and a lot of the guys the mims and the franklins and it's like hey there's there's been flashes but it's never solidified whether it's through injury or how they actually perform you haven't had that guy been like all right this is you know this is this is it this is uh this is our guy outside of i mean depends where you rank sutton but something's good something's pretty good but i mean you've he's a fine he's a fine wide receiver one he's a fucking awesome wide receiver too yeah that just you you've you've had a lot of attempts at trying to find that guy at wide receiver and i like you i like doing this where you're a team who's clearly going for it and every freaking it doesn't matter how good somebody is in college remember how good marvin harrison was in college yeah i just i mean guys sometimes don't translate and well sometimes we don't know the reasons why but when you're a team that's going for it and you have the choice between hey we can trade up and maybe get one of these rookie receivers and hope it works out or we can just give up a little extra and just go get a guy that we know is already good hey this guy is already very good and if we add him our wide receiver room takes a definite step up and then yes sudden as a two is awesome you have you know a decent running back room trotman you could do a lot worse and you'll have to figure out the slot i guess a little bit but it takes a big step forward because the offense that was that was something that was missing from the offensive time so what is your read on the palace intrigue for the oc because i think you were kind of teasing it and what you were saying earlier um you feel like the moving on from lombardi like a trusted consigliere and elevating david davis webb as aggressively as you did like i think everyone around the league is probably paying attention to that right like sean payton is clearly setting up davis webb to be either his successor in denver or hired away correct yeah davis webb is so young too i'm i'm it wasn't that long ago i like if you go to his wikipedia page i had to pull this up because this was up i had this up earlier uh his photo is webb with the texas red texas tech red rangers in 2014 red raiders that's not that long okay this guy definitely played for like five teams in the nfl too you know was he a giant for the giants mostly he was a giant to bill with chet honestly maybe he never left the state of new york new jersey but yeah um speaking of denver quarterbacks by the way uh did you see case keenum played this weekend he's back in our lives the bears uh back up um no the uh but the davis webb thing is interesting to me because like you can read it a couple of ways pretty clearly in order to keep him in-house they had to elevate him that's my assumption right like if someone else was going to hire him away and give him play calling duties then you're there's nothing you can do if you elevate him and give him play calling duties then the only team that could hire him away as a team that is making him the head coach am i understanding that correctly probably i'm pretty sure that's just the way the way it works and possibly possibly i mean it's it's tough to take one of those lateral moves where i i'm gonna go be an oc for another team unless it's these ocs that don't call plays and he calls yeah that's the part yeah that's the rough yeah so pretty clearly there's signal i think and someone like sean payton deciding like we got a hot hand here got to get him into this role got to keep him in the house and he's expecting he will probably you know if the broncos get a one seed this year if they make a deep run the playoffs if bo nix takes a step forward davis webb is getting head coaching interviews next cycle he may not get hired he may need to do this for a couple years but i'm i'm guessing that there is general interest in him as kind of a young bright offensive mind and that's why they're doing this and that's crazy too that's and i mean that's my big takeaway from him his coaching career started in 2023 like sean mcveigh-esque right i mean in terms of how like he went from the quarterback they brought him in to be the quarterback's coach here he got moved up to past game coordinator and then boom guess what you're calling plays not just hey i need a guy to step in and help me game plan because i'm the play caller you're you've done and shown me enough over the last couple years that i want you calling these plays on game yeah uh micromanagement palace injury concerns over sean payton taking back play calling if this if there is regression in the air don't worry about that because that's a thing that could happen you have a guy that's called plays plenty of times that could say hey we need to fix this right now i mean i think that's that's a panic button and i think if that happens um i don't know i guess you could does it does it ever feel like that fixes anything can you think of a situation where like dan campbell took play calling duties and the lions were suddenly fixed no no it's usually uh we're drowning here and trying to grab the line yeah so if that happens i mean it feels like things have gone awry anyway and i don't care okay um all right uh bo nicks uh did break his ankle uh in the bills playoff win um the his performance in that game was surprisingly plucky i thought compared to uh um you know how he looked the previous year playing the bills uh now the bills defense was very very bad and they were also coming off of a game where they were playing in florida against the jags and had fought very hard to win whereas the broncos were on by so that matters um um but uh you know i think what bonix did over the team should get to buy so much easier than playing the jaguars um but yeah i mean you know the the what the broncos did over the balance of the season i thought was you know and what bo nicks did over the balance of season and in that playoff game uh was i thought thought you know very positive signal about his growth and his um his arc his development arc um is he perfect quarterback absolutely not um but is he a quarterback that has a relatively high floor when you put him behind the best offensive line in football and have a played designer and play caller like sean payton in the building is he capable of giving you 66 to 75th percentile yes i would say he is and he proved that last year i thought pretty clearly um his weaknesses were very obvious i thought he's a player that does not really like to um he doesn't go for the high degree of difficulty stuff he throws a ball that if it's not if a wide receiver is unable to make a play on the ball it's not getting picked off he's a very safe quarterback i would say he's not a risk taker he's not a gunslinger uh he's fat excuse me he's fast uh remains to be seen if the broken ankle affects his uh fastest man on the field uh high water mark that he hit as a was that his rookie year first game he was the fastest player in football in a scramble um sneaky fast sneaky fast uh remains to be seen if he continues to develop that part of his game or if he opts for more of a you know pocket quarterback role uh to you know just as he is on an end um and i think the additional skill in the wide receiver room presumably will unlock parts of the field that he was unwilling to take on like over the middle and maybe it's just never going to be in his nature to do the risky stuff and if that is the case and bo nix does not ever really kind of move to the next stage of quarterback play then to me the broncos are kind of stuck in purgatory where they are going to win a lot of regular season games and then at some point flame out in the playoffs which is why i wouldn't take them on in the afc right now yeah i don't know he so people people were kind of oh why didn't he play in that preseason game well people don't always play in the preseason guy a lot of a lot of starters didn't a lot of starters don't play in the preseason he's a full he's 100 fully participant he has no restrictions in camp it seems like everything's fine this was a broken ankle that you couldn't tell was broken during the game and at the end there uh as he was leaving the field and whatnot it wasn't the gordon hayward oh my god his foot's backwards like i'm trying to think of the worst how many how many days after you heard about the injury yeah it was gordon hayward after how many days that one was bad um the there's so many there's so many that one is gross how many days after you heard about the injury did you secretly suspect that he heard it celebrating in the locker room like immediately i'm like no i know but for how long did you maintain the potential like i'm gonna need to see you hear all the facts i'm expecting some somebody will leak that here it in the locker room yeah i i i thought something like that did he fall down the stairs on the way home or what because just didn't seem like an injury that happened during the game no i'm with you there um so yeah i think i to me at least uh success for the broncos this year is another high seed a deep or playoff run yeah at least you know a more competitive uh effort in a you know an afc championship game maybe even super bowl appearance but i think there's a world where but we've seen what bo nicks can do we know what his ceiling is and that just his general demeanor as far as lack of being a risk taker does keep this offense with a lower ceiling than the other offenses in the afc that could hit a higher a higher potential right and i when i compare them to the other kind of high floor teams like the texans in the afc to me they are already a clear step ahead because of the quality of the offensive depth chart and just in general the belief and the voices in the room know what the they're doing whereas i don't know that i would say that with confidence about the texans um and i don't know high floor team teams are going to be in the playoffs unless there's some catastrophic injury i think and then really it's just a matter of does bo nicks shine in the playoffs does he have his joe flacco moment or is bo nicks always going to be stuck in this category of a guy that's not going to elevate you yeah all right let's uh let's get through some of the off season the rest of the off season like we mentioned the 14 wins the one seed the bad beat having to start jared stidham in a very important playoff game r.i.p great offensive line last year great defense a lot of fun names they lost john franklin myers to tennessee he mattered he is about the only thing that they lost that that is probably going to matter he is an important part of that defense they still have a ton of good players but he was a really good pass rusher he had eight sacks elite run defender yeah now now they're gonna lean on uh you know there's a rookie that might have to fill in a little outside of you know dj jones and roach in uh in the middle there on the defense both very good players but john franklin myers will be missed yes you can't keep everybody pj lock to dallas um he played 10 games to use of course special teams guy but um he's uh he's he's gone as well as dre green law who was more of a cap savings type thing um and then you added jalen waddle we mentioned the trade they gave up the what a first third and a fourth for waddle and a fourth good job by you you picked up another safety uh and for agency tyson anderson from cincinnati um that's is that it is that the whole off season that's pretty much uh you don't if you don't let anybody out of the building and you're a very good team you don't need to add a lot and when you did add a lot you added jalen waddle and then obviously your draft class is incredibly weak because you didn't have a first or a second rounder um in this one so your first pick was tyler on item uh as i mentioned an interior defensive tackle uh probably gonna be part of the rotation and probably needed to be part of that rotation with the the loss of franklin myers um franklin myers i see his name right i'd keep mixing up jonathan franklin myers jonathan franklin myers you drafted a running back in the fourth round he's third on your depth chart jonah coleman from washington a uh with the pick that did come back from miami you took an offensive lineman from boise state cage casey uh a tight end justin jolly from nc state in the fifth and then some depth elsewhere at safety tight end and mr irrelevant red murdoch from buffalo the ncaa's all-time leader in force fumbles uh all of those records that is a hell of a nugget that's what the internet said about him these guys who are like it's always some guy who played in like the mac and played like five years at linebacker apparently he's he's looking okay in camp for a guy that was drafted in the seventh round they also signed um 40 uh undrafted free agents so many on this uh and uh third and fourth stringers here um but some of those guys might hit who knows um all right it was a good off season because of the jalen waddle move in my opinion um and i the franklin myers loss is the one that i have my eye on yeah because the defense like you're running the other losses on defense were their worst defensive players in my opinion so they're not really that big of a big of a loss and the guys you're back filling with were pretty good so i think in general this defense to me looks like they have the talent to be a top five unit if they are healthy however um they are clearly a little bit fragile because the depth is now going to be tested is that fair way to put it that is yeah i mean that's what happens when you get good your death starts to suck because those guys who are like hey i could start somewhere else but i'm stuck behind another all pro maybe i maybe i view myself as somewhere go get some better money and more playing time elsewhere well i hope red murdoch makes this team and i hope he has a that's great another great name uh by the way hat tip to uh trace smack did you see him kicking field goals 57 58 yarder that got uh taken off the board with the penalty that trace smack could kick so red murdoch went to the university of buffalo where he set the record uh in three seasons by the way he redshirted only played a little bit in his freshman year so he did this in three years he broke the ncaa career record for forced fumble is previously held by uh same university oh uh cleo mack yes that's funny yes previously held by another oh my god and cleo mack yeah i figured you'd get it if i gave you that that's cool were you gonna guess i had only i don't think i know and a third buffalo player there was one running back there was a running back who was pretty good too ah whatever andy let's uh let's get into the ratings coaching real quick vance is back riz is back uh logan kilgore your quarterbacks coach good call the um the rizzler uh i forgot was the special teams coordinator special teams coach yeah um yeah well-run organization uh i think i like what they're doing um before we get into the ratings andy uh the denver broncos preview podcast is brought to you by circa professional football content and riz is back riz is back riz is back Circa professional football contests. The clear number one football contests in the game. And the margin is so great between Circa and the next best that it's not even worth measuring. The immeasurable, the contests of course are run by Circa out of Las Vegas, which means you need to be there in person to sign up. If you're going to do that, you know what a great time to go is contest sign up weekend. There will be college football on, there will be great events like actually like the, the open bars and social stuff that they did last year was just flat out. Awesome. You go there, you sign up in person, you find a proxy, presumably Vegas Maddie who kicks major ass. And then you can play from anywhere. You can get a team of friends together and split the entry if you want. You can consolidate many, many entries if you are a highly liquid player or you can play grandissimo where you're putting a hundred thousand dollars at stake to win presumably three, 4 million, maybe more. Anything else you want to say about the contest, Sandy? No, apparently most people sign up at Circa, but you can also sign up at the D at the Silverton casino lodge, the Tuscany suites and casino in Southern Nevada, or Reno legend legends Bay casino. Can you tell me what town legends? Sparks? Is that sparks? I've been there. I've been to sparks and I've been to that casino. You might've been up that way. Yeah, I've been there. So if you are in, if you're like, Oh, I'm not getting to Vegas this year, right on the Truckee river. Yeah. If you're going to go float the Truckee river, you're going to, if you're going to float the Truckee river, you're going to go right by it. You might as well stop and sign up for the circuit contests when you're there. All right. With that, the quarterback OC rating for the, I stayed at the D. I thought the D was fine. Again, I didn't, I didn't spend much time. My room was my room. I took like three naps in and went there for the, I thought the, the walk on Fremont street between the D and. circa was significantly gnarlier than in years past so it's fine in the middle of the day when everyone's out having fun if you're doing it solo at like four leaving the legacy club or at some craps yeah the the crowd at four in the morning it's a little more solicitory yes yes um yeah it was it was a crowd um that said uh the ratings for the broncos are just glowing numbers everywhere but the one thing that i think is going to ultimately determine is this the team that you are talking about power rated in the top three or a team that is kind of just in the top 10 is the qbo3 number and for me going into the season i'm coming in a little bit low uh at a 4.7 for nix plus web and i'm prepared to be uh adjusting and aggressively adjusting this one we're gonna get signal right the fuck away when they play the chiefs on monday night football week one we will we will get signal is bo nix healthy you have they added new layers to his game is davis webb up to the job and for those um i'm kind of middle shotting this with a four point uh what is it four seven i'm middle shotting this with a four seven because there's world where we get signal from that game and i'm turning this down into like high threes and then there's world where we get signal from this game and i'm going up to like five six i don't think there's any world where i'm really kind of making the case that bo nix is a mvp candidate this year um they're going to win a lot of games he might get that kind of shine um but ultimately i i just i don't see him doing enough in terms of uh high leverage difficult playmaking to warrant consideration as the mvp so uh yeah what do you what do you think the highest you will go with both where are you now i'm at a five i'm in the same spot where how high are you willing to go uh you know you cut down on some of the turnover where they play a lot of the time and i'm kind of in the same spot where they play a lot of the time and i'm kind of in the same spot where they play a lot of the time you're pushing it down the field a little more and again it's a it's an ocqb number i gotta see a really nice game plan that's utilizing waddle and sutton to the the best of their abilities you know it's it could be up there it could be sixes it's just i don't know that nix is gonna ever get to that stratosphere of the the elite elite quarterbacks um but what he does inside of this offense could be could be special with you know he's still sean payton at the helm he's you know he's still going to be a big part of this no matter who's calling plays he's still a huge part of that install and that's another reason why my number's low like yes i love the fact that they they brought this guy in buffalo tried to get him on the coaching staff while he was there apparently too like they had this guy as a backup quarterback or practice squad what was it and the bills wanted him to come in and be a qb coach right he he said i got i got a little more juice in the tank i'm gonna play for like one more year i'm gonna go back to the giants give it one more try but um i think just it speaks to like we said how highly thought of he is especially by payton but he's never done it i can't just give him a high rating off the vibes and the feels so yeah kind of like you said middle of the pack for me okay um and i'm part of this is sean payton like i know you're not the oc but you are part of the oc year three for nicks he took us he was good his rookie year not great he was a little better his sophomore year that came with a whole bunch more wins um but uh really small incremental step forward from him um i could see another one but uh a small incremental step forward from where he was to where he could go to me still kind of has him on the outside of the top ten so not uh not expecting the world from mr nicks uh the skill position group dragged down by the depth the tight end and the running back i like the wide receiver one and two i like building an offense around those players um i think this running back room has huge questions both from a health standpoint and from are you actually good standpoint and uh i don't really understand what their intention is with this group of tight ends so i'm gonna did i say my number uh 5.2 5.2 5.2 yeah i'm i'm right around there i'm at a 4.9 which felt bad having sutton and waddle on there but yeah the the slot it's looking like uh it's looking like pat bryant might be the guy um the the tight end room is like you said i'm not super sure what the what the plan is there by bringing you got ingram trotman and justin jolly and then the depth kind of stinks and the injuries are i'm probably going to bump this up a little once i know everyone's healthy but like dobbins waddle mims all have had little you know hiccups banged banged up soft tissue stuff here in camp already so i'm not banking on this team being 100 right now okay offensive line for me is a 7.1 i feel like this is potentially low uh that makes them a top five unit for me in the nfl um they were very very very healthy and available last year especially their key players um there was an argument to be made that garrett bowles should have been in the mix for protector of the year he was probably nominated right he was in the finalists he was he was yeah he deserved it he's awesome uh he might be your second best offensive lineman because right guard quinn minors uh is an absolute budding superstar at as far as the right guard could be and then mike mclinchy he's still around uh notre dame uh top 10 pick for the niners back in the day if i remember correctly same year as uh who's the guy in uh in indie uh quentin nelson quentin nelson came out over 1.5 over 1.5 notre dame players that's where i was going um mike mclinchy still yeah r.i.p and in peace five dimes uh but uh yeah ben power is good luke wattenberg good garrett awesome mclinchy fine uh this is uh a very very very very high floor offensive line do you agree is this your number one number two yeah i had 8.5 8.5 i just i do offensive line a lot more just here here's the numbers i'm plugging in what are you gonna give me if everybody plays and then i give you a little bonus if everybody played if there's continuity and there's a shitload of continuity and so many good players bowls minors um my like what is center your weak spot then uh yeah wattenberg is like that's the thing though center's my weak spot but like everybody's center kind of sucks so it's not like you there's not again there's a everybody's center sucks except for casey's right curry down free is the only like good center in the league as far as i could tell you i don't know it's a really good unit probably well i'm missing point i'm probably 8.5 8.5 yes so that makes the offense for you it makes the offense for you a top half offense is that right oh look at my percentile yeah it's up there let's see i have them as a 55th percentile offense yeah i'm 558 i think i gotta pull up my chart it's up there though yeah i mean we were pretty close in the quarterback number and that does a lot of the lifting um the uh the weighted epa for them as an offense last year kind of had them in the middle of the pack so i didn't feel like i was way off having them at 55th percentile as a as a total unit um but again if uh small step forward for nicks medium step forward for nicks all of a sudden we're talking about a very very very very robust rating for this team uh because the defense is untouchably solid and it starts with the coverage unit which for me is the highest in second highest in football after philly and actually third highest i have philly and seattle higher i have denver a little bit higher than houston uh they are 7.1 for me for coverage i took a little heat off of them for run stop because of franklin myers leaving i'm a 6.7 and pass rush i have rated 6.8 um so in totality this is my second best defense with a 69th percentile how about you i'm a little higher a little higher yeah wow i'm at like 70 something i have to look but uh run stop is the lowest of the three grades yeah that's the seven it's still very good seven out of ten it's still pretty good like you still have alex singleton you still have um god who's the guy who came over from the niners the other year a fun guy strong safety you have brandon jones like that guys that are very additive to the run stop up front and then you have zach allen who is gonna play a lot of steps and struggles a little bit jonathan franklin myers leaving hurts a little bit dj jones good good run stopper roach needs to improve and then you have a rookie behind him so i have that as a seven pass rush i have a 7.9 um that's second highest in the league for me just benito allen cooper i mean losing franklin myers stinks but it's still one of the best pass rushes love love some benito think he's tragically underrated with just 18 sacks 81 pressures like he has a dpi resume just he doesn't have to just doesn't have the name or the service time he was the co-favorite at one point two years ago him and tj watt right and then ultimately who came and stole it was it sirtan sirtan has a dpoi i forget who got it that year anyway um yeah it's a uh it's a very very good defense uh just a quick note we haven't even mentioned vance joseph's name outside of i think you said he was retained is there anything in his scheme that really gets you excited or is it literally just he's working he's cooking with elite ingredients it's just it's it feels like it's 60 40 elite ingredients like he's always been a very good coordinator you know when he was i think asked to do more that was tough but you know i he brings a lot to the way they rotate that uh that front around with some of the past or excuse me the pass rush yeah um i do want to kind of point out one thing about this secondary um when you're struggling to find a way to get jade baron onto the field that is a hell of a good problem to have like they have exceptional depth here in the secondary and i'm kind of intrigued to see if they can figure out a way to play with five six defensive backs on the field most of the time i'm guessing that's what they will intend to do um i think this is a unit that could make things very very very tough on a potas and quarterbacks and obviously if you have a player who's as good as pat sirtane then that makes everything else easier but jaquan mcmillan's graded out phenomenally last year riley moss actually looks like he might be the weak link and i'm wondering i'm kind of wondering if they pull the pull the plug on it's i think i think some of it was just like well what i mean dude like mcmillan's an elite nickel corner pat sirtane's out there a fungus roaming around sometimes brandon jones you got a couple of these linebackers as well one linebacker can cover and i guess i'm gonna throw at riley moss he had 125 targets thrown at him so is that the high water i don't know i i had to i had to go that's a lot that is um jaquan mcmillan gets a uh a special mention andy for winning a playoff game question mark is that his pick six but uh the uh the the ripped the ball out from uh brandon cook's interception at the end of that bills game that was that was a good play i'd forget about that they lose that game if he doesn't get that ball that's over those patriots is your in fox pro is your nfc is your fc title game riley moss had an interception against atlanta yeah um they made josh allen look bad in that game and i really want to give the defense credit for that well it's fun too because of joseph his quotes they're making turnovers a priority this is like the defense is good but we can be better um you know and now that i've had a few years a lot of these guys we've had several years working with and you know i talk about the continuity at the offensive line continuity and a lot of this defense too is great so be interesting to see if there's anything up his sleeve this year fun um well if you haven't already guessed we have uh some pretty elite numbers here for the denver broncos in totality uh you are lower on coaching than i am i tend to have a very favorable rating for uh sean payton particularly his in-game adjustments i think have always been one of his just you know kind of up his sleeve uh has the right adjustments for everything his fourth down decision making stinks but that's because he's an old man what are you gonna do um am i too high on coaching six points a lot of mine a lot of mine is just based on you know aggressiveness and stuff maybe maybe i'm a little low special teams you're a little lower than me or a little higher than me sorry 5.1 by 4.5 um will that's gonna kick out 80 yarder this year in the mile high you can bet on it uh i think the long field goal prop is set at like 68 68 and a half why where let's where everywhere you can bet on that if you want to if you want like the record to be broken go look for it people are trying like a lot of really long field goals especially one with lutz you know half his game shouldn't be at altitude um rizzy's a top tier coordinator um so good defender good special teams um all right uh your final percentile is a 61.9 i'm a 57.9 uh you are a plus 3.43 i'm a plus 3.21 uh andy the market right now on denver broncos has them at a 1.8 disrespectful oh my goodness do you see this monday night football opener what is going on what is that switch over let's switch over to the schedule let's look at this opener at kansas city banger of a monday night way to close the first week long first week because we're starting early um yeah probably gonna be betting that so um the nasty pass rush against uh hobbled quarterback coming back we'll see we'll see how i'm gonna save my pat mahomes thoughts for the kansas city pod but they're not going to be glowing i'll give you a preview yeah he's not getting any younger not the easiest schedule though this is a first place schedule you play a ton of tough teams your first cupcake is week seven you have you know your favorite over jacksonville but that's a team a lot of people have um a lot of hopes for this year and that that's a tough one and then you get the rams the niners the chargers the seahawks that's why i said perhaps i made a misstep with not just because of the letting yeah yeah letting letting that stuff come and go and if they're three and three then firing on them to win the afc at like 15 or 18 to one i you can't better you can't have a better number than that not when they're five and one well yeah so that's the question so the if you're looking at the schedule that we have live on youtube as opposed to listening in podcast form the denver broncos right now with the look ahead lines are underdogs in five of their first six games now none of them are by more than two well now the the casey denver lines move to two and a half i don't know if you've seen that um so it's it's we have five games where they're two and a half point dogs um can we do a look ahead different oh no patrick used the white joke damn it i damn it patrick stole my joke i was gonna say can we get a five leg teaser of denver week one week three week four week five week six and hope that they keep it inside eight and a half points in every one of those games is like 23 points combined all of them all of them yeah i mean you're going up against some good offenses but like like the like we learned you know with the the this defense is going to make your this defense is going to make good quarterbacks look bad it will um so yeah you got a five you got a five leg uh you got a five leg teaser with just denver across six weeks there um i don't know there's a there's a roll of the dice here where they're oh and six right yeah i mean that's that's the thing i can absolutely happen those are some tough defenses you're playing you get the rams in seattle right that's it's not easy thursday night football they lose to the defending champion seattle seahawks to go oh and six you have an extra week for sean payton to figure out what he's going to do as he is taking back play calling from davis webb going into the arizona game um yeah i could see it i could see it the schedule makes me less inclined to be a mega bowl about the yeah broncos going and then you know we've talked about that a few times we've talked about that a few times there is a i'm making a number for week one against the kansas city chiefs i'm making a power number but you also have to start weighing in the schedule when you're looking at some of these season long stuff and you know there's such as this is an absolute danish of a schedule because you have a nice soft middle and there's going to be a bunch of wins in that middle part of the schedule and then you know come what may at the end it's it's not an easy ending with buffalo new england chargers but two of those three games are at home where they got to come to you know altitude the chargers coming to play outside in altitude in january so you have you have some advantages there even with some tough games new england one's going to be an absolute banger i hope because we were robbed of an absolute banger but we should have had last season against the patriots but man you should get a bunch of wins in the middle of the schedule you just got to withstand the storm to start the year and if you do well in that storm then you're getting the one yep um time to move on um you play on black friday against the pittsburgh steelers and i mean your violent pass rush against aaron rogers is almost too much to i'm i'm just delighted at the idea that denver might be a one and a half point favorite in that game um i think this is that that matchup would make me want to lay as much as three on denver um for opener by the way i have chiefs as a favorite um but it is not by any kind of points it is less than a point um so that is uh going to be a pretty decent opportunity i think to take on denver money line on my net football uh playing on christmas versus buffalo actually wow did you say this already the buffalo and new england back-to-backers that was your playoffs last year and they are of christmas and third bang bang same sequence that's cool i like that and what is f thanks is that black friday that's black friday yeah black friday at pittsburgh fun one yeah yeah we didn't mention that with uh we didn't mention that in the last podcast but no primetime games for the raiders sorry yeah well plenty uh denver made up with that with uh five or six here um difficult travel in the back half of the season it should be noted um you get a couple of trips east in a three-week stretch uh you get actually you get you're going east to pittsburgh to the jets and to the patriots um all in a pretty tight time window um you're playing the jets coming off of their bye oh scary not really um and yeah i think the teams on the schedule where you're going up against a quarterback who's you know a bit underwhelming are your opportunities to really flex here and we're going to have some really good games and we're going to have some really good games some interesting conversations about how many points are we lying with the broncos in some of these spots when they're going up against middle to bad quarterbacks um the type of team that i am concerned about the broncos performing well against is what oh i suppose an offensive coordinator that can score you know even against a tough defense offense beats defense every time i feel like i take the best offense against the best defense every i feel like an elite rushing attack scares me if i'm a broncos backer because if you can generate significant um rushing success against our front and we have to play more base defense i think that affects their advantage a little and if you can run the ball on the broncos consistently and kind of kind of keep their not give their offense as many chances you're going to keep them in the teens do you know what i'm saying yeah so like a strong a real strong running team rams is a good example week three right like you're gonna have a tough time with the rams if the rams offensive line is in is fully intact in that game that looks like a bad matchup niners potentially the same story um there's not many other teams that are going to have a tough time with the rams on here though that i would qualify as like running team that should scare you buffalo on a christmas you know you're not you're not playing many elite rushing teams so not a lot of reason to think that you don't have a chance in a lot of these games where you're small dogs or small favorites so i think it's still fair to have some cautious optimism about the broncos heading into the season even with that start where their dog's in five or six yeah i like the buy the buy is in a nice spot you get a cupcake off the buy you're facing one team off their buy and it's the jets yeah i think you can probably can probably make up for that but yeah weeks three through eight there's kind of brutal all right so here's the thing what's the playoff picture going to look like and how much is success in the playoffs going to depend on them having the one seat again yeah that's going to be tough and it's it's such a tougher schedule and i hate to be a prisoner of what we just saw but i feel like they have like one playoff win in them right i feel like they draw a team where you're you know you're you're in the wild card round for instance if they're hosting the wild card round and you have you know a team with an offense that's not super balanced or it's not run doesn't have a specially strong rushing attack um you could probably win that game but then you're going to run into the likes of a or a buffalo and they're going to be able to play a little bit of keep away against you and then you're in trouble yeah what's gonna what are the odds you play a division foe in the playoffs at some point pretty high i'd say pretty high yeah yeah pretty high um i mean if mike mcdaniel gets a dangerous rushing attack going in la then that's a problem for you for winning the division right um i guess do you agree with me that a team that can really run the ball efficiently and effectively is the only offenses that are going to succeed against them it's not only the weak spot of the defense and you know quote unquote weak spot because it's still very good but and and you know you just lower the variance by limiting possessions don't turn it into a you know a game where you got to go out there and keep defending that offense because i do think the offense takes a nice step forward defense is hard to predict to stay that elite i mean most conventional wisdom tells you the defense takes a step back just because it's hard to stay at that elite level over and over again and then yeah if the other team is able to run the ball and you're not you know you're not winning the turnover battle two three nothing you're going to be in close games and you're relying on a third gear starter and a rookie play caller to win close games so it'll be tough okay uh i feel like there's a stage of elimination bet that would be more fun than hoping they can win three games in the afc playoffs right like there's just too many potential afc playoff foes who i think kind of fit the puzzle well where you are going to be your offense is going to have to step up to get the job done and get to the next stage and i'm not going to probably have a single future on the on the uh outside of division and i think timing the division bet gets tricky because i do think they will win week one against the chiefs so betting plan for me for the broncos is going to be going into the season with them at best price i can get for the west and i'm probably going to play a stage of elimination bet like loses in the divisional round or loses in the conference championship game if i can get a price that's big enough you can get you can probably find a 225 on afc west so i mean if you think they beat kansas city gotta grab that now um like i said benito was kind of interesting for dpoi but man it feels like feels like you might just have a repeater there and i don't know if the number i took a little but i don't know if the number's quite big enough um i don't know what that'll set leaves for like uh awards stuff sean payton's not getting coach of the year you know you don't win coach of the year coming off a 14 win season shit just doesn't work that way uh who's your opi candidate waddle maybe i don't know that volume's not going to be there compared to some of the elite receivers that are going to get 150 targets it's hard to see an award outside of maybe a defensive player or protector of the year quinn minors agreed um all right well i think the market is going to warm up on these guys pretty quickly if they do exceed expectations in the early going against the very difficult schedule and outside of the rams game i i'm expecting pretty positive outcome two and one going into the niners game that's the swing game on whether they finish four and two or three and three in my opinion in that first first six okay they'll be trading them maybe live trading them maybe i i sell off my positions taking a couple of round trips so oh let's go Broncos it'll be fun the last two for this division on Wednesday will be a lot of fun because there's a lot going on in Los Angeles Chiefs are still the Chiefs man that's right