2026 Carolina Panthers Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

2. Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Dive, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor, Andrew Dinsick, powered by Bat Spurs. Welcome to The Deep Dive. Carolina Panthers pod up today, Andy, you're defending NFS South champions, hang the banner, Dr. Eager. You know, I don't care if it was a bad record. It's still, it's still an accomplishment. You went to the playoffs. You didn't embarrass yourself. You played pretty tough against what was probably the best team. Andy had a foul. Biggest future I cashed last year. I don't know. Panther South, 20 to one. Panther South. Oh yeah. That was a big one. I probably tried to talk you out of that. I'm sure you did. You know what you know when it was on their schedule. Just look in their schedule and tell me when the Panthers were 20 to one. You could tell. I don't know their schedule, but assuming I could figure it out, they had lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 26, 10 in the opener, and then they had lost to the Cardinals, 27, 22 in week two. Oh yeah. I got him before they lit in the ovens of 130 to nothing. And I was like, oh, maybe this team's got something. And they lost to the Patriots, 42 to 13. Yeah. I think actually I take it back. It was after that Patriots lost that I got it because I was like, well, they got the one. They want to know in their division. How can they be 20 to one? The rest of the South sucks. If you may feel that I think I heard his shoulder. He was dinged up. He was dinged up. There was there was a couple reasons why it was a fun bet, but it landed. And I was excited. receivers were never healthy in Tampa and Falcons are falling apart. Saints hadn't shut it out yet. Saints almost shut them. They almost did. The Panthers won the South despite losing three of their last four. I forgot that. I really did not clock that. They were seven and six going into their final four weeks, finished eight and nine still one. Oh, man. All right. Here's the thing about the Panthers and where they said today. One of the negatives of winning eight games and winning your division. One of the positives is you guess playoff experience. One of the negatives is first place schedule. Yeah. Another one of the negatives is even if you don't entirely believe in your quarterback, you're picking too late in the first round to draft a new one. Are you looking at the records from last year? I got a fun trivia question for you. Yeah, please. Who finished with the best division record last year in the NFC South? Saints, right? Saints. Saints are four and two, weren't they? The Saints beat the Panthers twice. I know that. They beat the Bucks at least once. I'm going to say Saints. It is. That is incorrect. I'll give you another chance. Is it the Falcons? No. No. No. I can't be. Can I? Can I look at you there? Yeah. Can I be a look? Is it the Bucks? I don't know, man. What's the answer? Falcons beat the Saints twice. They beat Tampa once and then they beat the Panthers twice. Was everybody three and three? All 14. Everybody was three and three. I was going to let you just, I was going to let you puzzle it out for a while. I think you've got on for 10 minutes. Yeah. I don't know if that's ever happened. Probably. Anyway. Yeah. In the NFC South. It's probably happened. Probably happened three seasons and really the NFC South Andy. All right. The key fear for where we are with the Panthers is it was there's a fun season for them last year. Obviously getting to the playoffs and they had a great playoff atmosphere in Charlotte. Really put up an awesome fight against the Rams. I remember watching that live line on the board at Circa from the awesome recliners that Jeff Benson secured for us a wild card weekend in the circuit book. And I don't remember the foul. The Panthers ever being live favorites. I think it got under three though, right? Was it a minus two and a half at one point when the Panthers were up in that game late in the game? You don't remember. I don't recall the line line. Yeah. It was it was close. At one point the Panthers were up in that game. 3427 with under two minutes to play. Ultimately Colby Parkinson catches a 19 yard pass from Matthew Stafford with 38 seconds remaining to keep the to keep the Rams Super Bowl hopes alive. I don't know if you remember what the key play in that game was Andy. Do you remember defensive back in the Cua breaking up the wood? Yeah, the cool thing. That was really athletic play. I remember that game at all. My whole brain is the whole weekend is only bears Packers for some reason. It's like that like took up all the bandwidth. A freaking bears game. No, I remember. They're both bangers. That was a bad throw. It was a bad throw. That was the kind of throw that loses you a sure win playoff game as a 10 and a half point favorites. I'm going to say that close 10 and a half. So the Panthers overachieved by getting to the playoffs by competing with the best in the NFL. In some worlds, you can take that information and say we're not that far away. We only need a couple pieces. Let's show up some key parts of our defense because last year, what I remember last year's Panthers off season into the regular season was we're going to do everything we can to put the pieces in place for Dave Canales to try to fix the offense. And if he does, then we'll get the signal. We'll get the information we need on whether Bryce Young is the future and they put no resources into the defense. Not. They got Derek Brown back off of this time, but they really let the defense just kind of run out there and good luck to them. The problem was, I think, and this is, you know, tell me if you think I'm reading this or too, you know, too aggressively, but like the investments they made around on the offense all look like they hit. They've got solid offensive lineman on this roster. They had the rookie of the year, wide receiver for critics and Ted McMillan, Ted Arola McMillan and they had a breakout from Jalen Coker. They're getting above their pay grade production out of the running back room. And so it's literally like, okay, we're going to do an intelligent job of staffing this offense and they killed the problem is that the data and the signal they got back on Bryce Young is that he's not it. That's my read. It's mean. It's potentially reactive maybe, but I do think that you kind of know now that with good pieces around him on offense, this is still at on its best day, a little bit better than League average offense. Do you agree? Yeah, but what I, I don't think he's ever going to be, you know, what are the elite quarterbacks? But it's a, it's a ticklish spot because he's good enough. Like he's definitely good enough to win with the pieces around him. He's good enough to win a division again. He's good enough to win 10 11 games. If things hash out right, if you have a good defense and pieces around you, like he's coachable and we've seen definite improvements because Jesus, your one was, your one was a tall fang. And, and we had the benching and then there was some Andy Dalton in there, I believe in the comeback and I know his numbers don't pop off the page. But again, it's, it's the plus light where it's like, Hey, this guy's a plus, but not by much. And it puts you in a weird spot because do you replace him? Well, he hasn't done anything to show we need to replace him unless some situation comes along where you can get a top 10 quarterback. But when do those situations come along? Like, oh, there's a top 10 quarterback in the league and he's just a free agent right now. And we're, we're probably one of the people in the mix for him. It doesn't, it doesn't make a lot of sense. So you know what I'm saying? It's just, it's a goofy spot to be in. Like you're, you're only escaped from this is he doesn't want to sign when the next contract comes up and leaves or regimen. It's really, really hurt and you have to replace him. You know what I mean? What's the move here? Well, I don't know the move is like. - The move is, the move is, you got the data, you got the data you needed to know that he's not the long-term answer. And he's entering his fourth year of his rookie contract. He's gonna be cheap this year, relative. He's gonna be cheap if you exercise the fifth year and there's relatively-- - Tag him your sixth man. - If he develops, you tag him. If he doesn't, you replace him and next year's draft. And I think that he is, like, you're not really sweating the idea of he's such a poor quarterback that he's not gonna continue to develop the young weapons on the offense. He's not such a poor quarterback that he can't run an effective offense. He's good enough to do that, no question. But he's not competing for championships. This is not a championship pursuit quarterback. - I don't know. It looked like progress to me. I'm willing to put a pin in it for him. He was efficient enough, he's not, we're not pushing the ball down field enough. The interception-- - It's a cheap gamble. - It's a cheap gamble to exercise year five in April, but they did it. - Yes. - And this year, year four, you know facing a much tougher schedule. You can invest your off-season now. - This is judgment here. - Yeah. - You can invest, you can now focus all of your off-season investment on the defensive side of the ball. You don't really need to do much on the offense 'cause you took care of it last year. You can focus on trying to rehabilitate your defense from a talent standpoint. And if Bryce Young continues to progress under Canalis, then, like you said, play him into year five, tag him after. If he shows you that he is not progressing this year, and because you're facing a tougher schedule, you go four and 13, like, you kind of won the lottery. Now you've got to get out of jail free on him, and you get to draft a quarterback that can, you can develop and have them take over. - What if, here's what, the worry for me is, what if he puts up a very similar stat line to last year? 25 touchdowns, 10, 12 interceptions. Again, the yards per attempt are still low. - Honestly, the thing that matters the most-- - He plays all the games, he plays all the games, and it's like, yeah, you the Larry David phase. - Dude, the thing that matters the most, and this is hilarious, it's QB wins. If he wins too many games for you to be in a position to draft, then you're kind of stuck. - Right, you got to stick it up. - And like, a good problem to have is he improves from benefit, 'cause where I'm at right now with this guy is his efficiency is pretty poor. It's not good. And in the eye test, kind of check, like that, it checks out, right? When you watch it, there are certain parts of the field that he can't consistently win at with his arm. And that's a huge limitation in today's NFL, if you're not, you know, if you have to scheme and game plan within a certain portion of the field, you're trying to win with your hand tied back to a degree. And my guess is that if he improves his efficiency this year, but the Panthers still managed to find losses on their schedule, which is very tough, then you kind of have, then you have flexibility where you can go back to the well week five as a judgment, year five as a judgment year, or take a quarterback if you like a guy that's available when they get to you, you know? But this is all to say, like the Panthers, I think, have really, really successfully managed their way out of one of the worst situations in football with the approach they've taken of, find guys that can improve this offense in year two, find guys that can improve this defense in year three, and then evaluate Bryce Young's year four to decide whether next year is swing away and round one for the quarterback. I think I like it. I can't criticize what they've done at all in this, it's kind of mini-region that took over after Bryce Young's truly horrific rookie season. - After that rookie season, I would have never even thought we would have gotten to the point we're at now, where we're in and on. - Heming and Haunting a little on, like, could he be, you know, if he gets like 10, 20% better, and they win games, it's like, they're kind of stuck with him. And then you're either gonna have to tag him in your six or look at some sort of extension, which is a horrible pill to swallow, paying him market rate quarterback contract for like, he goes out there, you know, he goes 26 and 13 for like, 3,800 yards and nine wins and a division championship again or something. It's like, the sucks, 'cause like, which way do you go? Both options are bad. I would say that the fact that his rookie year was as bad as it was, to me, it sets the bar pretty low on what he can actually become, which is why I think, if you said, if you gave me the range of outcomes of this year's Panther season, I think I would just say, four and 13. Small improvement in efficiency for Bryce Young over year three, draft a QB. I think that's where this is going. - All right, let's talk a little off season. - Hit it. - The off season for the Carolina Panthers. This is easier than the, hey, what's your favorite move that the Falcon's made? What did you decide on? What was your favorite move? - I don't even remember. - Weekly, I weekly landed on Datsun. - Datsun, that's what it was. - It's really easier. I like some of these moves. - It's equally hard to pick my favorite move for the Panthers, but for a different reason. - Oh, yeah, mine's Kenny Pickett. Kenny Pickett added to the. - I'm an A.J. Dylan guy. I love those quads. - Actually, Haines King was fun in that Hall of Fame game. - Yeah, he was. - He was a ton of fun then he got hurt, but Kenny Pickett is your backup now from Vegas. We added Edge, Jalen Wilson Phillips, did a little boomer there from Philadelphia. Devin Lloyd from Jacksonville, a right, I think he's gonna be on the right side, right inside, linebacker. And kind of fixes your rose boom problem. Rashid Walker, he was signed as Swing Depth. He is now your starting left tackle week one. Because of an entry there, we'll get to it a bit. A.J. Dylan and John Mechee, the third from Philly and the Jets, some depth at running back and wide receiver. We added Darren Waller, not too long ago, about a week ago. He wasn't terrible in Miami. He was kind of a nice little red zone piece where I think he caught a few touchdowns there. Coming out of retirement and no longer wrapping. We lost a week of doubt all three, and he was. - Darren Waller, top 10 in yards per out run, Monk Titans. - He was kind of efficient with the look at the use them. Yeah. Anyway, maybe we'll see a little more 12th personnel and have your matchups there, and we get a little bit of Darren Waller. Darren Waller can still play, honestly. Maybe not elite, but he's still serviceable tight end from the small bit we saw last year. I'll record out all free agency, he lost to Pittsburgh, which I actually, that one hurts. He was kind of a good, efficient running back the last couple of years. Aishan Robinson, defensive tackle, he released, and then Tampa picked him up Roseboome, also Tampa. He led the team with 122 tackles, but had terrible coverage in run grades. (laughs) And Devon Lloyd was, you know, signed for a reason. Andy Dalton is an eagle now, I think. I think he was part of that trade for, maybe during the draft, DJ Wonem was Roseboome, was Roseboome the worst player on defense of anyone that got 500 snaps last year. He led the team tackles, it's crazy. It's a weird dichotomy, like hey, it was your tackle leader. He was terrible. - I think he was the worst player on defense that got 500 snaps last year. - That's fair. - DJ Wonem lost to Detroit, Austin Corbett, and Cade Mayes, interior lineman, lost a buffalo in Detroit, Yosh Nashman retired. He was an experienced swing tackle. He lost some offensive lineman, especially Dapton, and I had LeBrien Ray, retired mid-camp, cited personal reasons. Another interior body that's gonna be missing the front. already lost Ashawn Robinson. And now, you know, for the agencies closed. So you got to go dig on the scrap peep if you want to be adding players to that. What was your what was your favorites? Jalen Phillips, number one, David Lloyd, number one, one A Phillips, one B Lloyd. I thought those were both really shrewd moves. All of a sudden you went from a unprofessional, unserious defense to a like a unit that actually has some guys. I liked both of those moves. First round pick was Monroe Freeling offensive tackle from Georgia. You took an interior defensive tackle Lee Hunter from Texas tack in the second round. Chris Brazel the second. Brazel. I don't see him in the depth chart. Andy, what's up with that? He's not going to play. Will Lee the third corner back for A&M. He is going to be on the depth charts behind JC Horn. Sam Hecht, another interior lineman of center from Kansas state. And then some depth at safety and lineback with Zaki Wheatley. And then some depth at safety from Penn State and Jackson Kewach. From Miami, Ohio, a linebacker that is. I think going to be an interior. I think he's an interior guy. He's. He's off fall. Okay. Let's talk injuries a little bit here at this point. The Carolina Panthers were bit by the injury bug in camp earlier. Yeah, I didn't get to squirtin yet today. The. The problem. Yeah, I mean, like the. A little bit of an over. I think a little bit of an overemphasis on this. Like severity of this because it happened early and they were the only injuries to report. But losing Nick Scordan sucks a giant donkey dick. If you are a Panthers fan. I mean, he matters a lot. He's a really interesting fun young player, particularly. Like the, like, particularly what he was able to do in terms of. Just really like high level pass rush, run deep and coverage. All within a bad defense for you last year, right? Which meant like he was kind of doing some serious mop up. Like if all of a sudden you raised the rest of the defensive pieces, I had to see why he was going to be able to be this year. We won't see it. That's absolutely sucks. But, you know, him losing him in brazil. Like, you know, it could be worse. I think this is still. I mostly I'm curious. What is the. What is the injury buzz on the return of a key Aquano and Taylor Moton? Like I said, I have a key out. For the time being, obviously. And then Moton, I don't know what's here. Stay there. I have. My offensive line right now for week one is assuming Moton and an Aquano out. With Damien Lewis Fortner and Haunt across the front. Okay. Moton is a better player than a key. His injury was actually a blood clot in the lung. Yeah, I don't have an expected to miss regular. He'll return at some point. Yeah. He's going to miss the start of the season. Alright, so both of my tackles are out week one. I mean, someone will. Someone will play in their place. I would assume that we get. Got the rookie might have to play. Is it feeling next man up? Yes. Rookie's going to have to play Walker and preling. Yeah, I don't think you're starting stone foresight unless you absolutely have to. I just didn't know about like I don't think Zavala can move over. I don't know that Brady Christians in place outside either. He had a lot of guards. Yeah, so until. Ike and Moton are back in the starting lineup. This is a. Red alert. If you're facing a team with good edges. Just keep that in mind when we get this schedule. You want to talk ratings. Yeah, coaching changes. No coaching changes. We didn't even mention. The coaching. Coaching staff completely attacked. Completely attacked. The offensive coordinator is Brad Itzak. Yeah. I think the defensive coordinator is still. Hill is zero. Avarro. Avarro. It's sick. Everything. It's Zach or it's sick. It's sick. Okay. No changes. It's it. Yeah, it's it has been the coordinator for three years. Avarro has been there the whole time as well. I'm showing. Nothing. Okay. Okay. All right. Yeah. Let's move on to ratings. But before we do, Andy. Let's give a head tip to our sponsors. All right. I do real quick on Moton because in my notes. I am. He did. He did up here on the sideline with trainers Wednesday. His first sighting since the diagnosis. So. Are you like. Are you like a hard. Sure. He's going to miss. I had it. I was like, check on this later. Okay. He's going to miss the season. Because yeah, the pop thing for a con. It was like Pateler tendon. He's missing the first part of the season. Okay. Yes. Same thing. And real quick too with. Tricia Wharton. He's. He's going to. He's. There's no timeline in him too. He had a neck surgery in May. Another piece of the defense of front. Cool. Yeah. Um. Before we move on there actually is a coaching change of note. Well, let's hit it. This one happens to read sneak one in here. Uh. New Panthers. Uh, associate head coach and offensive specialist. Darryl Bevel. It's back. Former Vikings offensive coordinator. Former a lot of things for good reason. Uh, Darryl Bevel. Now makes his. 12th stop in the NFL. Uh, he was formerly with the dolphins. Uh, most recently is the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator. Uh, he had a cup of coffee with the jacks. Not just as the offensive coordinator Andy. But as the interim head coach. I'm sure my coach. Yeah. I he had that one moment. I just wanted to bring up Bevel because of that. How many interim head coaches have the Jaguars had? Well, that was why I wanted to bring it up. Do you remember when he took over for. Uh, urban. At the end of the 2021 season and he won like three games. And at that time he was the winningest Jags head coach in like the last three years or something like that having one three game. That's fun. That was fun. Yeah. The urban, the urban I experienced didn't quite turn out. Turns out it's a better name for a pope than a coach. Pope urban. All right, man. Uh, thank you to our, uh, sponsors circa sports. Hopefully, uh, you had a great time at. Sign up weekend out in the desert. There is still time to sign up for the professional football contest run by circa millions and survivor. Uh, the seats have not been filled. They will continue to take entries until we get to. I believe it is the morning. There's a cut off the, the morning of September 12th, the first Sunday of football season. So, uh, if you watch Patriots, Seahawks, if you watch Rams Niners, and you think to yourself, uh, oh, I missed my chance to sign up for survivor. Or millions, you did not. Uh, you can still get out to the desert, get your chance to win the largest guaranteed prize pools. In the professional football contest space. Sign up in La Nevada and play from anywhere. Andy, rating four, Bryce Young. Trick gay, trick gay, trick gay, his EPA per play, uh, he retired among the two Atagaviloas, Jacobi Bersets and Tyler Schucks of the world. He only beat out Gino Smith and Cam Ward, uh, among quarterbacks who had over 300, uh, dropbacks last year. Uh, it's not great. Uh, when you are right around zero in terms of your EPA per play, because that means you are having a fairer. amount of relatively negative plays. As you look up and down his season performance there were highs and lows. It was wildly inconsistent. I think there is certainly scope for finding some consistency in year two under Dave Canales and company if they, if Darrell Bevel really gets to work and is the offensive put Darrell Bevel to work. As the offensive mind you need in that room to kind of point out what's good and what's bad. There's certainly a world where he is more consistent this year but I do think that the fact that it's still relatively gruesome in terms of efficiency over the balances of his career means that you gotta expect it's going to be below five. Where are you? Yeah, I'm at a 3.9 here and some of it is just it's not an offensive brain trust that I'm enamored with yet. Part of that is it's tough to judge the DOC play calling play sequencing play design when you have a real project on your hands like hey doesn't work but could be fun to fix. Yeah, so I landed on 3.9 and I thought I'd be a little higher just based on my feelings but then when I used my numbers and started to put together a composite for comparing and we insted every other quarterback that's going to play and has a sample it's like hey, yeah here you're you're below average buddy. I thought we'd be like that average here and it's not so I'm at a 3.9. Yeah, I had a tough time finding any reason to be closer to average also even with expecting improvement with with the coach that I believe in I'm at 4.2. So kind of after all that I'm lower than you at price that's pretty funny. Well that's the thing is that I'm building I'm literally banking on a step forward banking it. We'll see. Yeah, I have a little bit of that built in this was like hey it wasn't it wasn't awful last year. Was he three years three systems or is this year three for him under canals? I forgot. This is year three under canals right? Yeah, yeah and it's it's been there the whole time too. It's he's been there since 24. Okay, okay. He came over from Tampa I believe. So if they haven't figured out what price he's going to be good at. Yeah, what makes it good? Yeah, then then they're not going to. Okay, skill position group, huge Tedero, McMillan fan, a hell of a rookie of the year campaign from him. He is complemented by a very very up and coming guy and Jalen Coker. I have low hopes for Xavier Liget. I think the depth in this wide receiver room is wicked. It's thus not really sure how to grade the point. I think they're all a hair below average. So I'm kind of dancing on fives and going under here. I am at 4.4 for the skill group. Wow, I'm going to be more I'm going to be lower on the panther scenario. I'm at a 4.1 and yeah, it's a lot of a lot of Ted. I'm a little cooler and Coker, but I like him. Obviously better than Liget or Tommy Tremble. I miss. I already miss. Rico Dowdell. We'll see. Maybe Trubahubber getting a bigger share of the run share there. Turns out to be a good thing, but it's like Jonathan Brooks and Miles Trevor, Trevor ETN depth there. You mentioned the wide receiver depth. He's Bryce and Tremaine, Jimmy Horn Jr. John Metchis on this team. John Metchis, former Texan, Jatavia Sanders, as you're back up tight end. So a little thin on that little thin on the depth. So I'm at a 4.1. Yeah, okay. I'm going to go with five for now as a placeholder for the offensive line. I just want to use my number now. I just want to use this time to sing a small amount of praise for Damien Lewis. Damien Lewis's contributions to the run game last year. I think single-handedly got the Panthers on track for that playoff spot. They're running attack, exploded in terms of efficiency through that middle portion of the season where they won four out of five games. And I really think that watching the tape it felt like Lewis was a huge, huge part of that. They put up 240, 220, 160 against good, not great defenses, but it was ultimately the strength I thought of their balanced attack of what they were doing. Running the ball last year that kind of opened things up and I thought Lewis was a huge part of that. So he's underrated until we're going to get some signal in these preseason games about these replacement offensive tackles. And I think you're just going to have to wing it based on what you see there because there's some unknowns interior strong though. So watch out for your blindsets. Yeah, fun fact. My stuff running in the background based on like here's here's how I plug in my stats. It built my offensive line number without Taylor Moton. So while I was unsure, my stuff that puts together a radio or matches together ratings is that ratings for everybody is saying both tackles are out. A free link is a natural left tackle. I don't think he's ever played right tackle before somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that's a spot he's played yet. So that'll be interesting right off the bat. We said Rashid Walker is going to be starting with the left side. Damien Lewis is great. Robert Hunt is your other returning starter at left guard. And then we have what Luke Fortner at center. I have a 4.2 right now. Okay. In totality, I have a 45th percentile offense, which is 22nd in the NFL. It might be like 40th. Okay. Moving over to the defense. Like like like don't love everything. Front stop for me is a 4.7. Past rest for me is a 3.9 coverage for me is a 4.0. We mentioned like I was excited that they have some real players right now. I think I went into last season like in the twos in all of these departments because the strength was so weak. But Derek Brown is a nasty nasty nasty D tackle to build around. Excited to see him and Jalen fulps on the same O line together and say D line together. And yeah, Devon Lloyd solid edition already looks like he's kind of fit in nicely. You have some pretty okay coverage across the with your premier players in Horn and Jackson. This is the state contract that was left a little cool on. The contracture flip flopped on those like hey, my Jackson was good. And JC Horn's getting paid like he's very good. He was clearly the weaker the two Trevor Travon Moring was okay. Rose Boom hurt you in coverage. He's gone. So again, I think it's a plus that we have some other guys in the building. Is this especially a good coverage unit? I'm missing it. I'm a little higher than you. So I'm lower on runstop. Okay. I just need any Derek Brown for there. I have, yeah, it's I have a 3.4 because I have like Derek Brown and nobody. I don't have Travon Wallace good. I need Devon Lloyd to step in and bring this number up for me. I suppose but Derek Brown is top four for me of all players in runstop. He's he's it's he's like my whole number here because I have a terrible number in Wallace. I don't have great numbers on with Brown Wharton. We'll see maybe maybe I need to redo the redo this a little with maybe I give Devon Lloyd a little bump here, but he's coming into the system. We'll see. Pastrash, I'm right there with you 3.8 with Squirton out. It's you know what's funny based on Derek Brown now again. More funny, you know, behind the scenes action here. I didn't use Wharton. I'm using a I'm using a replacement level grade for the rookie that would step in for him. If I put in Wharton, my number for runs goes front he goes down. He's really, I mean, am I saying, why am I saying right now? I Travon Wallace. Yeah. Travon Wallace. Oh, Travon Wallace. Yeah, the Wharton. Travon Wallace, my bad. I'm assuming Wallace is is not going to be this starting inside Latin backer. I think he loses that job. Okay, Claudine Cherylus, Prince Umatameelen. There's some guys that get well he's he's more he's outside. He's out. He's a rusher. He's more in Scott. So yeah, I don't know if they're better than and I keep mentioning Wharton like he's going to play, but he's we're going to treat him out indefinitely until we get better updates on you know that neck injury. Yeah. All right, I feel like I might be low on coverage here. And then coverage I'm going to fight. I'm at a 5.2. I love my Jackson Jackson was great. He played a thousand snaps. he was good, he was better than JC Horn. If JC Horn bounces back and plays how he's paid, you have a good CB12 right there. And then from there, it's a little dicey and that's why it's still around the only average for me, but it could take up a little bit, especially if we get better, better play out of JC Horn. - Yeah, and then Nick Scott, when Nick Scott, when an MVP quarterback throws a ball, you catch it, yeah, you gotta do that. All right, man. I'm at a 45%ow, 46%ow for the defense, that's top 20. So both of my units are below average. - That's fair. - Let's look at the chart. - Oh, they won the division last year. - It's a below average division, Andy. - Well, average can win it again this year. - Coaching. - Yeah. - Right around five. - 4.8 for you, 5.5 for me, special teams, you're at 5.2, I'm at 3.5, is this a good kicker? Do I miss that? Ryan Fitzgerald, can he kick special? - It's middle of the pack. It's just like there's no obvious weakness in, 'cause I take pond kick, everything's in there and then I use the DEVOA numbers too, so it's not gonna move your braiding much, buddy. - Okay, in total, I'm a 44th percentile team for the Carolina Panthers, that is a minus 2.4 in terms of neutral rating against the average team. You are a 41st percentile team on the Panthers, that is a minus 2.6 points against an average team on a neutral field. Andy the market number for the Panthers is minus 2.4.8, which means we're straddled again. - We're straddled, I'm betting on the Panthers, you're betting against them. Can't wait for Panthers Falcons, Andy's got his bankroll on the top against the Panthers. - Oh no, hold on. - I like the Panthers in that spot. No, it's there is a lot of close calls. I think the point of the matter is, this is like. - Hard of the matter. - When's it gonna be hard to come by for this team if they had an average schedule? And they don't. - They don't. (laughs) This puppy is hard. You know what is especially cruddy about this man? It is 10th hardest schedule in the NFL based on opponent power numbers. Your divisional opponents, have the 20th, 21st, and 30th with the New Orleans Saints in terms of strength of schedule. So not only did you get an especially tough one, the shitty teams in your division got easier ones, which, yeah, particularly the Saints who presumably are coming for you, yeah, that stinks. Which, get any games on this schedule that especially peak your interest in terms of look ahead line compared to what you think about this team? - No, maybe I wanna approach this a little differently. - Okay. - One fortuitous thing for a team that may be still missing both tackles in week two. At least Atlanta's missing their pass rushers. - Yeah, true. - Hey, you're missing your left tackles. You're going up, you can see Atlanta pass rush, which is completely dismantled to this point. So, and Miles Garrett got traded. He's not in Cleveland. You don't have to play him in week three. There's not, you know, who's your elite pass rusher that you play before? I mean, until you get to Detroit. - Hey, there's Hutchinson. - Yeah, there's Hutchinson. And then everybody, everybody, everybody, yeah, if I forgot about first moving over there, everybody that Philly's gonna throw at you. - That's mostly coming up the middle though. - Yeah, the middle of the schedule, there's a bunch of tough defenses that are, you know, I'm just mean like, yeah, like some of the teams, their pass rush strength is coming up the middle where you're a little stronger. Denver is spooky. - Denver is scary everywhere. - If that's a three point spread. (laughing) We might be looking Bronco country, let's ride. - Let's ride. - Early by, week five by. Don't love that for anybody ever. They don't face anyone off their buy. It would appear. - No. - That's nice. - It's a good schedule, it's a positive schedule, rest wise, it's a net positive schedule, travel wise also. - But you play the blinds, you play the Eagles, you play the Packers, you play the Broncos, you play the Ravens, even Minnesota since that he Pittsburgh, teams that could be better than the market things right now, and then he plays Seattle late. - Sadly, you draw the Green Bay Packers when Parsons is likely back. - Yeah, he probably comes back, you know, for that, we'd said that, maybe that Dallas game. - Tampa has a pretty decent pass rush in your division based on all accounts, their youth movement is coming fast. New Orleans, actually, you know? - Put Vida Vaya in the roster. - Yeah, that's nice. - But I mean, they got him resigning, he's happy now. - Chase Young, surprisingly, looking good for the Saints. That could be pretty impactful, if your tackles aren't packed with those two games. Yeah, if your tackles aren't packed by those Saints games, that could actually be an X factor we gotta watch. I think as I look at this schedule, I'm not seeing a lot of quarterbacks that really spook me, you know, there's not a lot of like, whoa, that's clear, no doubt, top three guy, right? Lamar week 11, maybe the only true elite quarterback you gotta go against, depending on how you feel about Burrow. - Yeah, Paul, Jordan Lovkin, throw. - This is a pretty soft schedule in terms, yeah. This is a soft schedule in terms of, yeah, Kyler. Yeah, that's a tough one. This is a soft schedule in terms of opposing quarterbacks. It's a difficult schedule in terms of opposing past defenses, I think. So I think it's actually, I think just kind of digesting this schedule a little bit. I do think this is set up well for Bryce Young to neutral, small step backward. Panthers win four or five games and are in position to draft for the future at the quarterback position. That's what I'm seeing. If they weren't already heard of the tackles and at Scorton, I would maybe feel differently, but those injuries suck. - Yeah, not an easy schedule, there's a ton of games. If you want to win this division, you have to win all the coin flips, all the coin flips are in your division, man. You need to go five in one division to win this division because there's a bunch of just scheduled losses on here. You've got to take your business against all the middle of the pack teams when you're at home. You probably have to win the Chicago and the Detroit games. - Oh my gosh. - Dude, digest this, you ready? - Yeah. - Your most likely out of division win is at Cleveland. - Okay. Your second most likely out of division winning is against Denver or Detroit or Cincinnati. Like that sucks, oh man. Oh man. - The teams people are betting on to win their conference. (laughing) - Oh, yuck. Goodness, goodness, goodness. It'll be a really fun test week one to see if Carolina's defense is a little bit better than people think. Oh, here's a good, here's a good jumping up point, Andy. I don't have much else to say about the Panthers. - Collin and Johnson and Johnson's bad. (laughing) - Did you see our old friend, old friend? - One of the first guests we had in the podcast, probably. Adam Chernaf. - He's back in the content biz, spinning out in newsletters, just showed up in my inbox. I was like, "I didn't even know that." - Oh, he did that last year. You can pay to get the premium one. - Oh god. - It's just, I mean, it's just touting under a different name. - He's got a different, he does something different every year. He can't sit still. He's always got to try something. - Well, it was a fun, it was a fun little experience 'cause I was like, "Oh, look at that, Adam. I'll open this already." And it was an impassioned case for week one over in Carolina, Chicago. And the market, the market just melted down. Couldn't get enough over on that game. Moved to like two points. I was like, holy shit. Maybe three points even. This is like 47 and a half now. And wouldn't he like, "Oh, just we should bid over 40 point up." Anyway, I don't remember colleagues. - I think it was 45, 46 so much. - I read it and I was like, "No, thank you." I get it, I understand that the Chicago defenses not good. But with both offensive lines of dealing with some stuff, very unclear who's gonna be your left tackle in Chicago. and who is going to be either tackle in Carolina. And Carolina's defense, particularly in the coverage, maybe being better than the markets rating, that'd be an interesting one. So I'm on the sidelines there. I did not take any action on that. Did you? - No, no, no, no. - Well, if I wanted the under, it's honestly making me think of the under, but I don't want to root against that. So I'm probably just going to let it be. What do you think? - Maybe I just take the underdisk. Am I the foil? Am I the villain this year? - Are you? - I don't know. I do like the coverage units, like you said. And the tackles are all beat up across the board. There's some good pass rushers on both sides. - My fair for that one's 46 and a half. So if it's at 47 and a half, 48, maybe. I'm going to have to think about it. The quality is still dog shit in the totals, by the way. So I don't even really know how much of, how much of it was just saw that foil. - It would be interesting to see what that looks like on Wednesday night, week one. - The other funny, interesting thing, I did have a handful of totals. I really, really was interested in, and I was doing an experiment to see if I could get filled, bigger than I could get a limit size bet at bookmaker by putting up maker offers on Kalshi. It didn't work. - No one's taken. - No. - You're fishing without a worm? - Yeah, yeah. Do you know a better way to just to, you can't do a maker offer if the market's going to move with you, is that what's going on? - Well, no one's going to fill it. - If nobody wants to fill it, if you're not offering, if there's a better price and there's liquidity at a better price, you're not going to get filled. And also, it's August. - I just assumed that. - But it just might not be forwarded. - There's probably not people who are looking like, oh, I need to get some big fills on a total and week one. - Yeah, I got like the email notification of all you've been filled. And I was like, oh, cool, $18, that's it. - Yeah, it's a little bite. - And now it's already, the position I was the most excited about is already drifted, a meaningful amount. So I'm probably just, I would have been better off just blasting bookmaker, although, get one fuzzy feeling about that over there? - I think they're fine. - You didn't dry down at all? - I told you, I drew down everything because I have a gambling problem with soccer. I had to just like, I remember it's just like, I just need to leave enough of the accounts to bet golf. And that's it, I can't have, I can't have balances here because come Friday when I haven't bet on anything for a few days, it's like, oh man, you know, it sounds good. Romanian soccer and these teams, all these two teams are just-- - They love goals, they love goals. - They're peppering it, why wouldn't they score one before that? That's my bet, is that the 2022 minute mark on a scoreless game, you need to get about even money on somebody's score in the first half. Love that, it's just my leak, it's a good generacy I have. So yeah, I'm drawn down and-- - A lot of people at that time. - I think if you want to be getting good fields, you just gotta be doing, you gotta be a bookmaker. You gotta be, hey, do you like this team to win the Super Bowl? - I don't, you gotta be, you know, you gotta be taking big positions on those. If you wanna get filled on everything and just have a bunch of money in the market, you gotta be the guy who's laying-- - A lot of people at Betfash were trying to convince me that in NFL, you could literally just put up, you could just put up a maker offer, two cents, you know, in your favor on anything you wanted and it would eventually get filled. - I wonder if that's true during the week. Like once we get to the game week where there's huge volume, the volume's gonna 20, 30, 100 X, you know, quickly here. - Let me see real quick what the current volume is in this total market, just out of curiosity. There's more volume in the preseason game one that's going on right now. The Rader's Texans has 4.3 million matched. The total I was looking to get into has-- - $18. - This is a very small number. - Yeah, wait, wait, wait, wait, I don't think it's a good strategy this early. - Okay. I click through the thing and it takes me to the NFL champion market, which is annoying. - They're seeing that to know. But to know, offer to know. - How many teams win the Super Bowl over here? - You know what, you wanna, it's Quick Sidebar, since I've, another sidebar, the sidebar to the sidebar. - Sidebar to the sidebar? This is like an exception at this point. We're in the snow world. - I think you can make money on, there's definitely scope to make money betting no on all 32 teams right now. - Because the rams, because the rams are gonna drift and then you can cash profit on that note, get on the yes, and then all the other knows are good. - Maybe. - Better hope, better hope the bad team doesn't surprise you and just blows your, that's, you know, you'd have to do with that portfolio. You'd have to actively manage it. - When's the last time a team that was like 20 to 1 preseason won the Super Bowl, Andy, come on. Never happens. - Yeah. - I think last year was, it's like 20 to 1, that's the answer. - Yeah, 20, 25, somewhere there. - Yeah, that's fun. - All right, well the Panthers, Andy, are currently 318 to win the NFC South. If this was an average schedule and not a kick 'em in the teeth schedule, I would probably be making anything in a passion case because they do think they are the most well run and the best coached team in the NFC South. - Any disagreement? - Like, I think that the signal we got from them winning last year. - Stephansky might be a better head coach, but that's not a well run team. - Okay, I think the signal we got from them winning it last year is if they're all bad in a given year, the Panthers will rise at the top, just the Saints coach where it was for a second, I tell him more. - Tell him more. - Yeah, let's see. - And that's obviously a bowl scare. - No, so yeah, I think ultimately a schedule just cools my jets on getting any Panthers skin in the game. And I wish them luck. I think that the best outcome for Panthers fans and Panthers front office is to really struggle this year. To look good, to have your young pieces continue to get reps and grow, but to not win games. And then have a swing. I would love to see that, you know, what that talent evaluation group does choosing a quarterback next year, considering the options look pretty good. That's my hope. - My hope for you. All right, let's call it a little bit. Tomorrow with the Nolan's Saints, who. - Yeah, Tim, gonna beat Tim Saints. You're gonna stop me from bringing up or I came to treat all together. That's a podcast, please. (laughing) She just gave me enough rope on that one. That was terrible. People, there were people who were so, they were saying it every day though. - I'm curious. It was, I'm kind of, oh.