2026 Baltimore Ravens Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

[Music] Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz Spurs. Welcome to The Deep Died. Final tune of the AFC North. You're expected winner Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens, Baltimore Ravens, Andy. A little bit like the oops, here we go again, me. You're gonna believe in these guys again. Oh, shit, here we go again. Or is it different now that we have moved on from Harbaugh and we might have an adult? It could be crafting some defense. Maybe. I think how much of your, if you are just anybody out there listening who wants to form their own opinion, what percentage of it is just interbased? It's like a lot because it's not like we had a ton of turnover. There's one big addition to the defense offices status quo ish. I mean, it's big enough. I'm of course referring to Matt and bouquet becoming healthy. Because he didn't get to play much last year. It's true. So I mean, it is, it is a lot of status quo from last year. And we've seen the highest of hires with your quarterback. So they get really comes down to did they nail this coaching higher or not? That's your whole thesis for the year. Yeah, I was doing coaching stuff. I mentioned this a couple of shows ago as I was doing coaching aggressiveness. I said, what am I going to do with guys who've never coached as a head coach? How am I going to model them? And I said, it's going to be 70% anchored to a 50th percentile aggressiveness. And like 30% anchored to who did you coach for? Were they a conservative piece of shit? Or you know, as far as never going for it and not being fun at all. Or were they wacky wild Dan Campbell who is rolling the dice and 7-11 back door little Joe. Let's go. So, you know, you know, we're ended up with mint or then. I don't have a ton of other information about how he's going to be a leader of men. So, I guess, you know, the declin Doyle thing is maybe more exciting or maybe better to speculate about. It's not a tree drew, but it is a sapling. This is the the first little sprout, the first leaves of our Ben Johnson tree. As we start to fall in love with whatever we fall in love with the coach, especially an offensive coach. People will start hiring anybody and anything that has ever even brought him a latte. As you've seen with McVeigh and Shanahan. I mean, even Shanahan's defensive coordinators were getting poached every single year for a while. So, declin Doyle coming over from the Chicago Bears. And then our DC is Anthony Weaver who was here before the, I think he left in the mass exodus two years ago, whether they lost McDonald and then like three other defensive coaches at the same time. Yeah. And now he's back. So, he has some familiarity with the teams, some familiarity with roster of cement or is your guy at that point though. Yeah. And then Matt a lot else to say about the coaches, I guess, unless you want to get into the deep part of the coaching roster. No, I just kind of want to. I do have one other thing to say about the coaching roster. Hit it. They did bring in like four or five guys that have never coached in the NFL. You know, like you're one of your linebacker coaches, your defensive line coach, your passing game coordinator. There's like Michigan Duke Notre Dame. You got to got your one of your defensive backs coaches is from Navy. A lot of first time NFL jobs on the roster. So, it's going to be a scatter shot of. We'll see. Love. Love. I kind of. I like fresh blood. I don't always love going college to NFL. It feels like that's about a 50% hit rate. I will see a lot of failures in that sense. I'm going to try not to get excited about the real. I'm going to try not to get excited about the Ravens this year just because there's been too many years where preseason I was expecting the world and they ultimately found their way out of the playoffs. You. You've been on the team a few times. Oh, yeah, I had to get to last season. This was my number one powder rated team with a bullet. I felt pretty high confidence that you're like, okay, well, you. You have to call a life for death pick. What team is making the playoffs? I would have said Ravens and I would have been wrong. And I blame Harbaugh. This was a team that by the end of the season was so desperately in need of a regime change. You could smell it. And I blame injury to Lamar Jackson. I think he played through a pretty meaningful injury last year for most of the season didn't talk a lot about it. I really make it part of his narrative because, you know, again, like he represents himself. He's on the, you know, he's on the quieter side of things. And I don't think we ever really got the full story of exactly how turbo fucked he was. I think you look at the data. You can see it very obviously. And so I'm just going to basically go into this 2026 six campaign expecting that there is potential for 2024 Lamar to walk out of that tunnel. And there's definitely bigger bands on Lamar than a lot of the other all-time greats that have come through and played this position. You know, his number one, his individual uncertainty because he can, you know, he will call his number and play through injury and play poorly. And number two, because you could, you know, all of a sudden be without him and, you know, be staring down the gun of a Tyler Huntly experience. You know, it makes the uncertainty around the Ravens as far as game by game pretty high. But, you know, I do think that among all of the new regimes and among all the regime changes, if you were going to say, which one did you look at and admire the most? It was what the Ravens did. Right. If we're going to rank regime changes, Buffalo's was felt very lateral. Pittsburgh's was very confusing. You know, some of the other, you know, kind of short term, you know, the regime change like in Miami. I mean, that was more of a, you know, you got some of the, you got rid of some of the problems. So that was probably a net positive. But, you know, the what, what the Ravens did, I thought moving on from Harbaugh and hiring. Mentor was the best of the hires. Maybe I like the guy, but we've seen it time and time again where. How often does defensive head coaches work? I would have thought the McDonald's. You have to, well, you have to get the right OC. And in the McDonald's higher, they didn't have the right guy the first year and God bless their hearts. They said, this isn't the right fit. Let's go get a different guy. It turned out to obviously work great. I think the mentor part of it is going to be fine. He's going to coach his defense up. It's probably going to be a good leader. I think I like where he came from. I like that he coached under a harbaugh, another one. Despite, you know, we just lost a harbaugh, but we're bringing in more harbaugh. But yeah, the Declan Doyle stuff is going to matter more because these defensive minded coaches, you got to have a good OC kind of minding shop while you're taking care of the knockin heads and running the defense. And if Doyle fails and just doesn't, you know, what he's bringing to the table isn't the right fit for the mar and the rest of his offense. You know, they're going to lose this division like Baltimore since that he so I think he matters a lot more and it'll be interesting to dig in on him a little. I got one more coach I want to talk about because of mentor. They did bring over some staff from Los Angeles, almost at San Francisco, San Diego, excuse me, both of those have been wrong. He brought some of his staff. They brought in a defensive analyst who was the defensive coordinator for ball state from 85 to 91. He was the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame and Jerome Betis was playing on that team Bryant Young first strong defensive tackling coached up one. I got to look his first name to forget it already one recommend her. Who has to be quite old coach. So we got the reverse nepotism we got the yeah, who was the coach for tent tennis series dad was there. - Callahan. - Callahan, yeah, we have to, we have to callahan. So we got mentors, mentors, dads of ours. - Awesome. - He was there in Los Angeles as well. - That's awesome. Here's the thing. I understand why there would be a little bit of a hesitation to get in bed with the defensive minded head coach, in general, the ones that have instantly succeeded in wowed people and kind of caught the imagination have been cutting edge offensive minds. I also understand the resistance to be like, we could see it happen again, lighting could strike twice. Mike McDonald going to Seattle and succeeding in year two might never happen again. (laughing) You know, I think that might have been one of one. And I get the hesitance to say, like, yeah, this is now the new rubric. Like you get a guy who can, you know, who understands the defense, hires a bright offensive mind, the rest of the history. I definitely understand the idea of Declan Doyle could be Ryan Grubb to Mike Donald's, you know, to mentors, Mike Donald, right? Like that's definitely possible. And, you know, this could be a short experiment, but I also think that if you are an offensive coordinator and you are given Lamar Jackson under center as your job, you've been handed one of the most advantageous, you know, dextact in your favor, situations that exist in football. And I think he's gonna be fine. (laughing) So, I would say, it's not a bad quarterback, like, oh man, how many of these, you know, back, back, back to the 21 new offense coordinators? How many of them are coaching of an absolute dog shit quarterback or in a spot that doesn't have a good wide receiver one? You could do a lot worse than that. - Tell the fucking animal with a former MVP, say, get another outside receiver. - There can. - He's running back in the-- - There can. - In his prime. - Still in this guy. - Here's the thing, man. Buying, buying, buying the stock on Jesse Mentor. Buying it. He is your coach of the year. I know that the expectations are high and it's tough to exceed expectations and win that award, but I'm telling you that he is perfectly, perfectly set up to succeed with this team. And I would point out that the major takeaway of his experience in LA is that he always, always had his team well prepared and they achieved year in year out has more than the sum of the parts. That Chargers team was consistently DVOA, EPA PurpleA, you name it. They were at the top of the pile despite the fact that they really only had Darwin James and Khalil Maca standout players. Everybody else was the kind of low draft stock. Came out of nowhere, coached up. Like just kind of was consistently in the right place the right time because of the scheme of the defense. Like I absolutely think that Mentor will, with the player like Rokwan Smith in the linebacking court with a player like Kyle Hamilton in the secondary and Matt Bukay back on the D line. Like he's got anchors at all three levels. He's gonna succeed with this defense. He's gonna be your coach. - Yeah, I have a lot more confidence than the defense than I do in just Declan Doyle stepping in and being at Zalinsky. I don't know the truth. He's seen the Odyssey. I feel like he knows the story though. That I think the movie in my mind, the movie in my mind was always always gonna be better than the movie on the screen. So I haven't made the effort to get there yet. - I went and saw it in my max. Like it was stunning, obviously. Nolan's great. My kid has become interested in Nolan movies. So I showed her inception. She's very mad that they cut to black. The top still spinning at the end. Spoiler alert. She's like what? Like it's sometimes a movie is ambiguous at the end. They can't all be Disney movies, darling. I do have one red flag on Declan Doyle. We'll move off and mentor because I think we can, but let's agree. I think mentor will succeed as a defense at running this defense. He has the parts. He has the knowledge. He has the pedigree. He'll be fine. This defense is gonna be okay. Declan Doyle is the son of, do you remember the most fun coaching tenure in Jacksonville, Jaguar's history? The Urban Milo. Oh, yeah, sure. Do you remember when they hired that strength and conditioning coach from Iowa? Oh, yeah. I think he resigned like two days later because it's like, hey, there's all of these reports that you were like super racist and you were also like bullying players to the point where there was complaints and then he's like, all right, I gotta just resign because like this is, this is like gonna turn into a whole fucking thing. As Declan Doyle's dad. Oh, first chicken, the armored dead. Yeah. How do you get, how do you, that's a weird, a strength and conditioning coach should be get another meathead. But instead your son, I just imagine a little Declan Doyle with glasses and then narrowed and his dad's mad about it 'cause he wants to be pump and iron and instead Declan is studying, you know, air Coriel and studying some of these old, you know, like looking at the wall shapes, learning the West Coast offense is like a little boy. And yes, he did, he did get to play with or play with. He did get to coach with Ben Johnson little. And he had to be a part of that. I mean, he was part of the big turnaround there and in Chicago. (laughing) - Chicago. - Chicago. So he was there under Ben Johnson, but he was also part of the Sean Peyton tree. So he's had some decent tutors along the line. And everything I've read about him because I began, he wasn't actually the offensive coordinator. It was a Ben Johnson product. He got to figure out what he's gonna bring and a lot of the stuff that the staff writers and the camp guys are saying, it's a lot of motion and play action stuff that fits the mar. Obviously the Bears use pretty snap motion, a ton. He's gonna bring a lot of the same stuff we saw. The motion plus the zone runs. It's friendly for a quarterback who has the legs and the arm. So it does the thing. The only thing that should be good fit. - Yeah, the only thing that pushed back is he was, he was part of a Denver team and where he was a tight end personnel scheme guy. And we'll see what we get out of the tight ends if he wants to run a lot of 12 and 13. But it seems like it should be a decent fit. And you have other veterans on this offensive, on this offensive staff, Dwayne Ledford on the line, Marcus Brady as he's passing game coordinator. There's guys who've been around. So he's never called plays in an NFL game. Ben had the play sheet, but we'll see. Maybe it's something that's a little bit of a slow start 'cause that's such a big jump from, I'm helping installing a game plan. But when it comes Sunday, I'm just, I mean, what does, what does, what does no see do if he's not calling plays on a Sunday? What do you think that guy's doing? Is he the guy that's over there? - You're writing down everything. - And then Johnson is doing so you can copy it. (laughs) - When you get the chance, yes. - You're taking it. It's like the, it's like the guy who prints the company customer list for the time he's gonna start us on business. - Exactly. - He's just making notes for, he knows he's in that tree. - I gotta tell you, - Well, you Google, four years for Lamar, that's a negative. - He's his own system. When you Google image search, Declan Doyle Andy, (laughs) he was a dweeb, like big time dweeb. - That's a good thing. - That's a, I think that's a green flag. - It's a green flag. And you know what else is a green flag? He's had a glow up, like the facial hair in his Raven's pictures. Like he's grown into the role, I think, to be the guy that manages a good offense in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson is a cheat code, so he kinda can't, he kinda can't fail. I really don't think. If Todd Monkin can do it, this guy can do it. I definitely, you know. - One last red flag on him from, - Okay, please. - Can't afford it. And I honestly, I truthfully think this is, he can't decide if he wants to be on the side-liner in the booth and he said, I'm just gonna use the preseason to figure out what I like better. So he's still making the reflux. - Is that a reflux? I don't love that. I want a guy who's got some-- - Convicted in his convictions. - Well, I think when it's your first year on the job, it's probably that, you know, it's harder. Yeah. - George Harris in solo shit was pretty good. - Did he add green facial hair in that time from his at the, is that the parallel? - I guess. I don't know if he's referring to Declan Doyle glow up or Declan Doyle as a coach. - Okay. - Well, he's got a great beard going. He looks much more manly than he looked in his Denver or Chicago stop. So I believe he will be fine. - Mostly he's just, I believe in more. - What's going on Jackson is gonna have a bounce back here because he's healthy. - Well, get into some of this stuff. Let's get to ratings. Let's get into the offseason real quick. I'll run through it pretty quick. They traded for Edge, Max Crosby, the, with Las Vegas two first round picks. That was void. - I failed physical. - Way too much. - Good, that was good. Like, it was good. - It was great. - Yeah. - It was good because they were gonna give them two first round picture, Max Crosby. - Including Max's. - This last year's first, yeah. - It was like a day later. Actually, my reports is 13 hours later, they signed Edge, Trey Hendrix, and from the division foes, the Cincinnati Bengals. - I was a good one. - Problem. - It's good, but it's good that they didn't trade all those first round pics. Free agent additions. Is there anyone you're excited about? Because I'm an elist, some names that, I mean, Ethan Pochick from Cleveland, they poached the division a lot. - I don't know. - This is something that they needed it because of the loss at center. John Simpson, he's gonna be a starting guard. He's your left guard, they got him. - Both those guys are minuses, and the loss of-- - But the people behind them was-- - What's the guy they lost? - Linder bomb. - Linder bomb. - Yeah. Considering what Linder bomb got paid for, that was the correct thing to let that go. - Yeah, he's actually, he went to Las Vegas. He's getting like 30 million a year. - You know what? - So that's fine. Ethan Pochick is your new center. John Simpson will be your left guard. Durham Smythe from Chicago, cheap tight end. Jalen Ockin's a safety from New England, Danny Pinter. He is probably in that conversation too with Pochitch. That's, I think that's a camp battle. We'll triple check that. And Jovon Gwynn, another guard to add to your roster there. You lost John Harbaugh in the off season. That happened. He was fired after 18 seasons, 193 wins. We mentioned Tyler Linder bomb going to the Raiders. He was your starting center. This is another one of the concerns I had with the 12 and 13 personnel. Likely and Kohler, your second and third tight ends. Where, and likely was kind of more one B than two, honestly. They both departed. So you're thin in that room. You lost a three edge slash outside linebackers and are dearest Washington, Dreymont, Jalen's and David O'Jaboo. Yeah, it is what it is. You're gonna have some churn there. You lost your Punter Jordan Stout in a low-hoi, Gilman. The safety Stout is being replaced by a rookie. We get to that draft class where you drafted Vega, Joane, the guard from Penn State at 14. Day one starting guard confirmed right guard with Simpson on the left. He is gonna be a go. You drafted an edge from Mizzou. Zion Young, he's kind of gonna be in that rotation. I think he's listed on the left side outside linebacker, slash edge, he's gonna be behind Tavius Robinson, slash in the mix there with Hendrixon on the other side. And then what do we got? Kobe Lane, Jacobi Lane. I just seen a tweet about him. He's apparently the star of camp. That's all it said. Jacobi Lane becoming the star of camp, USC wide receiver, big bodied wide receiver. And my notes mention that because they took another one named Isaiah, Isaiah, Elijah makes up my Bible names. Elijah Serrat from Indiana, if you remember that team, that was a pretty good team last year, especially effectively. This kind of was a horseshit team in the red zone. And these guys aren't starters, but they are kind of booking for that third, fourth, fifth spot. Wouldn't kill you to have some big body wide receivers down in the red zone. Matt Hibner, tight end from SMU, tight end from, Alabama and Josh Quavis. So there's your tight end replacements in the fourth and fifth round and then some depth at corner running back. The punter, as I mentioned, we got a punter in the draft after losing years and a defensive tackle and a guard in the seventh round. So good draft. You got a starting line and you got an edge. You got an edge that's going to be, you know, you're drafting the middle of the first. You got a guy that's going to start in your offensive line. You get an edge that's going to contribute to the excellent wide receivers and tight ends that are going to be on the back end. And we've gained a lot of teams for not having good depth. If any of those guys work out in their receiving room, it's just another feather in the cap of probably an already a strength on this team. - Okay. I'm not really, I don't know. I didn't really know. - It's like a C plus B minus kind of draft because what we're going to do. - Yes. I guess the one thing is, you're not going to have a lot of swings betterly if you're the Ravens and to take a guard was a little bit of a, like, you're really feeling that good about our roster or good to take a guard with our first top 15, maybe our only top 15 pick in a decade. So yeah, I was a little on that, but he can plug and play, which is huge. Otherwise that thought there, their offseason roster management was pretty meh. They avoided the big mistake as you kind of, I think pointed out correctly, which was incidentally trading way, way, way too much for our next stage. I think here's a thought though, ready? The most important thing by far that happened with this team in this roster in the offseason, this guy's got healthy. - Yeah. - The more Jackson had an opportunity to get healthy, he didn't put him through a ringer, kind of another playoff run, Mattaboukay is back, which was not, that I had, maybe like 2080 that he was 80% likely to retire 20% that he was gonna make a miraculous recovery. Maybe that doesn't last, I don't know. But that was a tough part of the past. - I mean, it's been like five days since he's been off to pop man, we'll see. - Yeah, here's the last kind of key question in point. Is Roku on Smithcote? Is he toast? - No, but he is not what he once was. - Why did he suck so bad last year? - I mean, losing Mattaboukay wasn't great. And that defense around him struggle the times, kind of feel like home free played plenty. Who else missed time back there? Did Hamilton get tinged up? - Hamilton had a good amount of snaps. He was out there. - He lost four. - You can and blue is now. - Hamilton was fine. Yeah, I thought over a thousand snaps were Hamilton. - Last year, so he's coming in at the week side this year. - Roku on Smith had a good coverage rating for me last year. His run defensive grade was around him right now. - Appalingly low. Like it was one of the worst of all linebackers who played football, which was so crazy because he was the cheap code for the Ravens defenses that were so good and he's getting there in age where I'm concerned. 'Cause sometimes these linebackers fall off the cliff. Some of them play until they're 38 like Demario Double with Douglas, but sometimes they do hit the wall. I am going into this season with the assumption that Roku on Smith has more all pro-ish years left and that it is not over, but we are monitoring the situation. - The situation's being monitored. - Yeah, it was a man offensive or off season, but we will talk very kindly about it if Declan Doyle and Jesse Mentor - Yeah, hey, good- - Good-hours. - If you nailed your coaching hours, who cares about the rest of this? Yeah, seriously, seriously. And I think they did. So we'll see. Let's get to ratings, but before we do, you going to, you going to circuit tomorrow? - I'm going to go to circuit tomorrow. I'm going to fly there and I'm going to hang out with the bedbash crew and I'm not going to sign up for the contest yet. I will do that on sign up weekend, but I will scope out the number, seeing what the overlays looking like at this point. I'll be talking to our friend Jeff Benson. Try to hold him, try to talk to a few people. I might actually bounce around trying to find Dylan and some of the guys who worked there. - Yes, great. - Hang out the Obring Bar. - Great crew that works down that circuit, but yes, these previews are brought to you by the circuit contest, circuit millions, circuit survivor and circuit grandissimo for that guy who needs a little extra in his life and by extra meaning to 100 extra, but yeah, get out there. I just posted about it today. We do get some questions about proxies I posted to we use, football contest, Vegas Maddie and Tony, both great, I've dealt with both of them for years. Sign up at Vegas Play From anywhere man. Win millions, dude. I won some money last year, Drew's hit some payouts on quarters over the years. - We're going to win some money this year. - We're going to win money this year. You guys are smart, go win some money. It's funny that today is Bengals and Raven's Day and those two teams played on Thanksgiving and were very consequential in the grandissimo. Knocked out half the pool, but they ended up splitting it because the other half of the pool had the Eagles who lost to the Bears. The contests are super fun. I'm excited to go out to circa. I was asked today, what is your routine when you go to Vegas and I kind of struggle to remember, but it's certainly opened my phone and opened Uber and say, do you want to ride to circus sports? Somehow it always knows that's where I'm headed when I get off the plane in Las Vegas and then hanging out at the overhang bar after you get in and drop your bag off, watching some sports meeting with people who are there hanging out in sports book, awesome tradition. So thank you to circa, looking forward to experiencing it. - Yeah, this time tomorrow. - This weekend, yeah. - We probably got the A-N-E-St. - Let's talk rating. and we mentioned it previously. I will repeat it. I don't believe that the sample of Lamar Jackson from 2025 is indicative of a decline. I think it is indicative of playing through injury. And so therefore, I am waiting effectively, giving only 30% wait for him to his number last year. I am giving 50% wait to his 2023 number and then 20% wait to his 2022 number, which in aggregate gives me an 8.4 for Lamar Jackson in terms of expected performance percentile. Interested to see how he gets compensated this off season and do for these these do for another contract. They are going to have to get that thing worked out soon. I hope that doesn't become a distraction. But yeah, Lamar is my QB3. Yeah, he is up there for me. I am an 8 flat. I think I am a little lower than you just in general on all of the quarterbacks. I did penalize it a little just for the great unknown of Declan Doyle. As I said, I wait the offensive coordinators in a little heavier. Eight is still very high. It is. It is. It is good. It is very for me as well. Okay. Skill position is tough. The Zae Flowers, you have the question mark of what will Rashad Bayman ever be a thing. A lot of young, unproven, wide receivers in the Depth Chart, million-year-old Mark Andrews, a million-and-one-year-old Derek Henry. I am coming in a little high, but this is a fragile, fragile, fragile number. I am at six and a half for them for now. But one or two injuries in this starts to look real, real, real fragile. Yeah, as I mentioned, you got Zae Flowers. Great. Your number one is a slot guy, and that's fine. I think that's okay. Your outside is a little weaker than some teams with high ends here, but Bayman and Devonta's Walker, you could do worse. Bayman is a guy, and then, as we mentioned, we got some of those rookies waiting in the wings behind them. Mark Andrews is your T1, obviously, with the two rookies behind him. But yeah, him and Derek Henry, how much longer can they hold off father time? Obviously, with Derek Henry, you have a decent backup and Justin Hill. You've never seen Ali. You have some guys who can spell him. It's just, yeah, the depth is really unknown stuff. I'll say, like, just to say, it's your best depth guy, because otherwise, it's a lychee, Serrat, the rookie. Jacobi Lane, the rookie. Do you know who your slot second listed on the chart is here? Somebody I've never heard their name before is Lajante Wester. No, I mean, we can do this with like 25 teams where it's like, hey, here's a guy that's listed that I'm not super sure it's actually a real person, but the Lajante Wester, I think he's a part returner too. He's he is going to be he was on the team last year he contributed. He was, this is why I do the name sounds a little familiar. He was on the Buffalo's team with one or Sanders. He caught that. He caught the big pass against Baylor. All right, Buffalo. Anyway, yeah, depth is the Buffalo's, the Colorado Buffalo's, not Buffalo bills. Anyway, skills 5.9 for me. I'm just a little lighter on the on the depth. And I'm giving it a bump a little because as I said, I'm I try to build in the part of the quarterbacks running team into that as well. So I would have been even lower without Lamar. Offensive line again, he, Lamar tends to elevate the performance numbers from all the guys he plays with. So it's tough to separate that out. That said, I like the tackle situation. I have a positive number for Ronnie Stanley. I have a positive number for Roger Rosen, Rosen, Garton. I have a meaningful minus for John Simpson, a meaningful minus for Ethan Pochich. And I'm expecting a small minus to start for Eonae. All together, this works out to be my pretty middle of the pack unit. I am at a 5.3. But again, like if this wasn't Lamar Jackson, take these snaps from them, I might be a little lower. Yeah, 4.9. For me, you kind of I don't have to repeat what you said. A lot of the same stuff. Pochich is coming off in a keelies injury in the middle of the season. He was cleared like two weeks ago. I know you have another center on the on the roster as well. But yeah, outside of it, it's very similar to Cincinnati where I like your tackles. And that's about as far as I'll go. You might have a plus that center if he's healthy. But yeah, the the interior of this, the interior of this line is a bit of a problem. So a little below average for me. It is a rated for me. And it is I'm looking at my other computer. A 58th percentile offense. I have them behind since Nadi offensively, which feels a little sacrilege. You are incorrect. This is this is a 71st percentile offense. Third in the NFL. Did I? Oh, no, I'm looking at old numbers. I don't have that's yeah. Never mind. I have some reason I have a quarterback number in here that is super low. 6.4. Let me read it. I'm not even hitting the right keyboard. I think that's really low. Yeah. A parable for the chiefs. That's kind of how they perform last year. So I guess if Lamar Jackson is still playing through injury, that's where they're going to land. Yeah, I'm if I put my numbers where they're supposed to be. It's more like a 67th. I find yeah, that seems reasonable. That's all right. All right. Defense also very difficult. I'm going with a small potential upgrade and performance with these guys because of the minter effect. And I have to because I'm digging the chargers for minter leaving. Baltimore for me gets a 5.0 for runstop. I will be watching many, many, many of the Rokwan Smith snaps in the first four weeks to gauge his degree of watchness because the runstop at times last year for the Ravens was really, really bad. And I'm nervous. That's not thing something that you solve. It's certainly not something you solve by signing a Hutchinson. Oh, it's his name. Hendrickson. So yeah, a little concern about the runstop. Pastroschromy is a 6.1 mostly because I have a very favorable grade for Mattabuke and Hutchinson does bring a Hendrickson does bring an element of plus to that room. Kind of quietly like a decent unit now with Mattabuke back in the fold. And then for me coverage is a 5.8. And that is almost entirely a Kyle Hamilton number. Kyle Hamilton, I think, is one of the least heralded best players in football. And I am honestly like pretty excited to see what he looks like in a minter defense. Yeah, he's a nice wither spoon type almost where it's like this guy is going to be playing five different positions today. And he's going to be doing a lot of it really well. And he's a lot of fun. And he's part of my runstop grade. And I know I can't use a ton of a ton of my secondary percentage for runstop, but I go game by game team by team. And some teams are going to need a little more. So I'm a little different. My pastrosch is lower. I'm at a 4.2 because of the injury stuff coming in. This will probably go up during camp. Once I see, I mean, Mattabuke missed 15 games in the neck injury. Like you said, it was an April surgery. He's off the public. Like five days ago, practice for the first time in 10 months. He had to get cleared by independent spine and cervical specialists. I hate that. What happened to the cervix? They had 30 sacks last year. 30 sacks is bad. It was it was it was it was a sure. If I'm greeting, if I'm greeting your stuff last year, it's like a two. But I'm not mad about it. It set up the pitch. Such a yeah. It set up such a good one, two punch betting against the Ravens with the Steelers with the Steelers week 18 and then betting against the Steelers with the Texans in the wild card round. That was such a such a brilliant set up. Hopefully we get another one of those this year. Somehow, somewhere somewhere. Okay. Mattabuke. Mattabuke. Hamilton is calling me that he's healthy. It's Kyle Hamilton moved the needle for you. Like he moves the needle for me or not. He's the best defender on this defense. He's better than Mattabuke or Hendrix and is he a top 10 defender in the NFL? Tap 10 defender overall. It's close. I bet if I wouldn't I should rate everybody and get fun little exercise. Yeah. I was kind of surprised to see he was number 63 in the NFL top 100. That felt well. I mean, Mattabuke and Hendrix and are very good and I think they matter. a lot. Rogue one Smith, if he can get back to form, still matters a lot to this defense. Marlon Humphrey quietly still just, hey, do you need a thousand snaps? I can give you a thousand snaps. I'll do it at two different positions. You need me at slotting me outside. I'm still very versatile for a guy who's, I mean, like 32, 33. So let's get to that runstop. I'm higher than you. Just because I do have the Rogue One Smith temporal little with some of the injuries around him. I like Travis Jones. I like, I like Metabook. I think it comes up a little higher if I have a milk. I like Washington and I like Hamilton playing downhill. This is a good run front, even when they were hurt. There were times where this was a pretty decent one and my personnel only grade for the core is pretty high. And then my coverage is higher as well. I'm at 6.4. I don't want to get caught. Like I said, I'm fine with Marlon Humphrey, especially if they play him at Nickelmore. Wiggins and Ousea are fine, but I really, really like Hamilton. And I think Starks is pretty good for us, or excuse me, free safety. Where was Ousea last year? Oh, he was here. He was here. I didn't read. I'm re-signed. I gave him a thumbs down last year. He was a bindness for them. Wiggins was a tiny plus. He was, you know, this is his third season. Starks was a small minus for them. Who's the nickel? Humphrey? Humphrey should be your, yeah. But that's the case. Humphrey, you probably give you like 400 snaps outside too. I see this exercise of naming all these guys on the Ravens Andy. Yeah. Fucking hell, they're old. They're old. This is an old game. No, Wiggins is not, but like all Wiggins is not. There's a lot of guys. There's a lot of guys that were, there's a lot of guys were adding up into the into the pot here for the Ravens who have played a lot of football. Like, real close to anything that old, I think this is your 29 or 30 year, but he's played so much football. This is this is a, this is quietly a very, very old squad. You're down, which means they're fragile. I'm down on coaching because I don't know any better. We got a guy that's making decisions, so we don't know. I'm giving the new decision-makers, like a 33rd percentile and going to go from there. So 3.3 special teams. I'm out of three. The special teams better this year with what's his name gone with the Harbagan. We're giving an upgrade to the special teams with their special team said coach fired. Last year, I think DVOA was 12th and leading last year. They've a good long snapper. They have good enough Westerners, your partner turns, the lead, the running backs, your kicker turn. Everything was fine. Slightly above average, loop is, loops good enough as your kicker. Okay. About average. And it's totality. My final percentile. You're replacing your punter. Oh, okay. Listen to punters. So maybe you're right. I don't know. I like I told you, my special teams numbers were just carryovers from last year. And then I wait and see what you come up with on a change mine. Final percentile for me for the Raven 65th. You're a 63rd percentile team. This isn't meaningfully lower than I went into last season with this team rated. But it's still quite high. I'm a plus 4.87. This is still, I think this is a top 10 defense. I think this is a top three offense. There are very few teams that have top 10. Both Ravens for me are going to be the number two power rate, sorry, number three power rate team overall behind Rams and Seattle. But they're good, man. This team has potential to be the best team in the AFC. And that is why they are currently the market favorites. Let's do your top five quick. My top five in order. The Los Angeles fighting Rams. And that is a pre-air in Donald. Rams number one. Number two, B flow bills. Number two for me, Seattle. Number three, Denver. Baltimore. Number four for me is Seattle. Buffalo. And then number five is Baltimore. I think we have the same kind of team. Depends where you have Denver, I guess. You're close. Denver is six for me. So your fifth is the Eagles or the Niners? The Eagles. Okay. My sixth is the like a little substation. My seventh is the Niners. I have the Niners at 12 because I think they're defensive. I was going to be pretty bad. I have to revisit that. I would make adjustments for all the injuries. Anyway, I'm about at a plus four here. So we are saying this is a top five team. Okay. The market has the Baltimore Ravens is the fourth best team at a plus 3.3. So not that not all that different. Right now, the Ravens are the odds on favorite. I actually helped me out for saying odds on. If you say odds on, does that mean they have to be over 50% okay? So they're not odds on. I don't think you need a devigate either. Even if it's minus one 10, I think you just say odds on. I'm showing some places are going on. I apologize. But the Buffalo Bills are your short shot. So when by a lot, what is this right? I'm looking at the right numbers. No, I feel the A plus 3 63 to win the AFC right now. It depends where you shop. There's plenty of somebody been just drunken smashing the bills at Chris. You open open a freaking on screen because you always just go with Chris and somebody has always just smashed somebody. Then you get mad because it's like 350 when the market has five to one clearly out there for the bills. Okay, what's the good bill? I mean, I just used the four for four one that they give me because I know. But anyway, the bills and I have bills and Ravens close to each other that a lot of you get around five to one for either Kansas City, New England, trailer, you know, 16 on the Ravens. I'm staring at it right now on a bed. And then you if you look at Super Bowl and Totality, obviously the Rams are a new Maruino with Buffalo. They're taking two win 25 K. Some people have more money than cents. Okay. That's a fun way to say it. I already made my bet on the Ravens and it's mint or kosher the year. It's not that much better a price than AFC plus 615 and you get to avoid the potential for a Lamar Jackson poops pants, pants pooping in the in the playoffs. Ravens right now are plus 450 to be the one seed. I agree with that. I think a one seed new coach, even with a super team on his roster is still alive to be considered for coach of the year. So he is, I will admit 100%. He is fighting the uphill battle of the perception that the Ravens are great already. That's tough to overcome, but not impossible. Am I stupid for this opinion? No, no, I mean, I don't know if I'd go for a stupid wasteful maybe, but that's short-sighted. I don't know. I mean, at plus 850. I like this team. There's just not a lot of I.v. was like value. Jackson MVP, what, 8ish. I don't think Hendrickson has a legitimate shot at T.P.O.I. Mint or coach of the year is a little short. I think he has a good case if he takes back the division and Lamar looks really good and more importantly his defense comes into play, which is funny because it's going to be like, oh, you really fixed his defense. What did you do? It's like matter of bouquet. It didn't miss 15 games. Idiot. He's not going to say that, but he could. Not no real rookies that I think have a shot at either of the awards come back. Probably not anybody in that mix either. Offends the player of the year. Man, it'd be tough to get somebody asked me this the other day. Somebody that was like, can a quarterback win offensive player of the year anymore? It just feels weird how they've been voting on it lately. It is just, hey, we have to give this like quarterbacks are always getting MVP from here on out. We have to give this other award to a non-cordabac. The second quarterback has changed to fantasy football MVP. Yeah, if you are the second best quarterback, you are getting the second place vote on two ballots. You are my second place MVP vote and you're my second place OPOI vote behind whatever receiver had the most yardage or if a running back at 2k or something. It's a weird spot for that and I don't know that Lamar is a good bet there either. Yeah, I mean, look at the voting for a lot. Look how high Chris Schumick-Kaffrey was in the voting for last year and try to figure out why because he was not the most valuable running back. That's it. When when, when total is like kind of at 11, you know, it's it's real juicy than 10 and a half over juicy to the 11-and-a-half under. I'm fine with that as well. I should look at the schedule. Let's do it. We got a lot of graphics and schedules. And I found it. I found it. I did it at the same time as you. All right. Baltimore Ravens, Andy are favorite in all but three games. The three games where they are dogs are. I am betting this maple money. ACO and I do. Oil assistant coach of the year. There we go. That's fun. People got to know his name. They got to have respect as beard. The three games that Ravens are dogs this year. Week eight at Buffalo. Two and a half point dogs. I predict they will be favorite in that game. Week 12 at Houston. Plus one and a half point dogs. And week 17 at Cincinnati. Plus one and a half. That looks right to me. I think that there is a lot of scope for the world to snap back to the snap back to reality. Oh, they go scrappy. And give the Ravens like a plus six type of rating if they flex a bit in the early going. And the test is probably that at Dallas Game Week three. That's going to be watched by everyone on earth. It is an international game at a 4 p.m. Start. What are we doing? Does that real or say what's out of all real? Yes. In South America. Yes. Real. This that game will be carefully, you know, carefully watched. And I think if the Ravens take apart the Cowboys and now on, particularly on the strength of their defense, you could see people start to really put them in rare air at the top of the UFC. That next stretch of games, Tennessee, Atlanta, Cleveland. Now we're just padding our number here. And a world where the Ravens go into their week seven match-up again Cincinnati for the top of the AFC North preliminary standing. I could see them being six and a what do you think? Realistic expectation that they're undefeated that late in the season or you think they stub their toe at some point. I mean, it says at Dallas, but technically not really, which is nice too. Whenever you see an international game and it says at, I mean, it didn't lose a home game at least. For having to travel somewhere else. So you go indoors and in the team, you should beat New Orleans, international team, you should be the team, you should be division foe. That's Cincinnati game, yeah. And then I mean, it is tough with two of the best quarterbacks in the league, getting an extra week to prepare for your ass. Not really really. You just see what mentor can put together there. Late by, but also did you mention the minibuy? No, the week nine 10. So you get those two teams off by, but then you get the Thursday to Monday's spot where you get 11 days in between Jacksonville and the mentor homecoming, the mentor bowl, John, the milk bowl, having to face the chargers again at home. In prime time, obviously, they had to prep that up a little bit. But yeah, you get the minibuy and then you get your full buy there in week 13, followed by a home game against Tampa Bay Box. And if you look, it is division division division division to close it. I don't know how we've done this yet. Where it's four. Three division games. I don't know that we've had one this year. So it goes at Pittsburgh versus Cleveland at Cincinnati. And then Pittsburgh again, you get Pittsburgh, both your Rodgers games. It's safe very well to him twice in the last four weeks. Thursday night as we mentioned. You think he's still on the quarterback at that point? You don't think that's the drill our season? I mean, unless they're resting him and he's already like locked up MVP, I don't know. I'm a big Rodgers guy. I think he's a dipshit, but I'm a big, Steelers guy this year, remember? And then as mentioned in the Cincinnati pod, plus than an hour ago, New Year's Eve, Thursday night football at Cincinnati, Banger, just a bad division. I hope like, you know, there's a 20% chance. One of these teams is dog shit at this point. A quarterback gets hurt. What was your percent? 20. I'm just going higher. 20% chance. I mean dog shit like this team is out of the playoffs at that point. You know, I think either of these teams has enough 20% chance. We have a crystal ludicone on Christmas situation. Yeah. So I mean, I don't, I don't want to wish that evil upon anybody, but 80% chance we have a really good game. And it might be for the division, which would be a blessing for all of us. So tough-ish schedule, but not really. The soft spots are really soft. You know, you don't have to play the first place schedule. You still get used to Buffalo and your division, though. A lot of win-able games. This looks like, this looks like they're teaming for to me. You do this every year. You fall in love with the Ravens. You're like the 51st date's girl. You just wake up and fall in love with the Ravens. I mean, look at the way that the schedule is sequenced. Like they're just going to turbo-fuck those teams in October. And people are going to be rating this team is like the Rams, Rams A-1A1B. By the time we get to Thanksgiving. Yeah, one seed is going to come down to the three-road games in division, Chargers game, and then- The Bill's game. Houston. Houston game. Yeah. Because yeah, I think maybe the Jacksonville game. I mean, I'm I'm waffling on where I'm landing and going to land on that Jacksonville defense when we get to the AFC South. But it could be fun one. It could be really fun. A lot of times this game, this team wins 11 or 12 or 10 or 11 games. But then I think they're they're long tailed to the overs higher. Then they're long tailed the under and that would be just you know completely predicated on injuries. It's like they're too tired to play that poorly. Because we lost one of your best defenders and your quarterback is playing through injury last year. If we have that again, sure, they can win six seven games. But even with a couple of tough ones on the schedule, yeah, 12 13 games is definitely in the mix. If you made me bet when total it'd be like 12 and a half over here. Yeah, same. What kind of price do you think we can get on that? Like 250, I don't know. I don't think it's going to be that high. 267. 27 not bad. That's a fun way to get exposure to the Ravens kicking ass. No, actually, that's our good. We have to do a podcast while we're in Las Vegas on the 27th. Yes. And it will not be a podcast like this. It will not be a preview show. The vision on preview. No, it won't be one of these. It'll has to be a standalone. I think that's more fun to do something unique. And I think if we want to do something topical, I've had a lot of people in glaring. Just I mean, people who I can center smarter and better. Did I just glitch out? I just had like three tabs restart. Yeah, you did. You're back though. Anyway, you've had a lot of people. You've had a lot of people say I don't know where I stopped. You've had a lot of people ask. I've had a lot of people say something. I haven't gotten to it yet, including several betters that I consider myself that I consider smarter and better betters than me. Bringing this up in conversation. Just like, hey, how are you using prediction markets? Are you doing it? Yeah. Somebody has me like, are you trading stuff on golf and like getting off of it at certain points? Yeah. How have you decided to use that? You know, and like it doesn't have to be a whole different philosophy. Like I think I think there's a whole bunch of money to be made. The way we the way we approach the NFL season. There's a bunch of money to be made. Grabbing positions with the expectation that we're selling it. Because you can do it either way. It doesn't have to be. Yeah, I think this team's going to be high. I don't know what's going on with you. You're in a man, but you're getting new. I love the idea. We are absolutely going to do this. Daran and the season and sell them. It can be a no. Wow. Something's going to happen. Good bet on the no. And later on. Something happened to your internet man. He's a struggle bus. I love, love, love the idea. Let's put a pin in it and we will certainly hit that as a standalone topic when we're there for sign up weekend. I will say it does feel a little back stabby to do that at circus. (laughing) Do you know? But let's do it. (laughing) I don't know what's going on. I'm just, I'm showing. (laughing) I'm sorry, man. - No, no, no. - All right. You know what you're a computer saying? You're a computer saying I need to break. I need to break, go to Vegas, have a good time. - I don't have any other tabs open to this fun. I closed everything, it's still just, (laughing) - Sorry, man. Well, it's a really good idea. I think you're, every one who is betting into a futures market this year does need a specific plan for how they're gonna manage a portion of their bankroll on prediction markets because of the 100% uptime in liquidity in awards and futures is invaluable. And the 100% two-way market, one-hundred percent uptime, two-way market is going to be invaluable. And I will tell you right now, I have completely given up. I'm way, way, way up to my waist in prediction market, betting at this point. And I have kind of gravitated to a very, very specific strategy. You wanna guess? - Not doing it? - No, no, no, no. I would say over 80% of the liquidity I put into play has been no bets at 80 cents that should be 100. (laughing) - I get it. - Picking up two dimes on nose is just, it's just, it's just, it's like crap. - I think there's a lot of that. There's a lot of that, I think there's gonna be some nose, just like on teams to make the playoffs or teams to win their division. We're gonna bet the know it 50 cents to start the season, just being stuffed their matchups early or how we feel about them early in the season. - Watch your guy to 80 and get off. - Yeah, sell it at 75. I've made some money. It doesn't. I think you need a different mindset. Yeah, I know, maybe you're right about doing it and it's circuit feels a little weird, but we're promoting their contests. I mean, it's not like they're in every state. It's, they're not allowed. A lot of it isn't allowed in Vegas. - Yeah, yeah. - All right, no big, no big just went from sweepstakes model to prediction market overnight. Yeah, they switched it up and I don't think they're allowed in Nevada. It's available in almost every state. I think it might be 49. - I love it. All right, man. Enjoy the Hall of Fame game. Enjoy the bet bash if you're headed that way and we will catch you. - So what day is your 10th seminar? - Thursday at 2 p.m. We will be talking tennis betting. - Watch. I hope you got a reservation for that seminar 'cause it's full buddy. I don't understand. (laughs) How? - It's 'cause it's tennis and they put you in the smallest ballroom. - Is it? I probably is. - I told him that. - I probably is. - It's in a day. - They probably is. - Anyway. - It's in the bathroom. There's like a standing room only. Here's talk to us betting who knew? The thing I was going to tell you. - There's more people this year than they were last year. They were least more tickets. It's 800 rather than 700. - Oh, okay, cool. - It's just a fuller event as well. - Cool. Andy, you guess what this is? - It's half time, buddy. - Oh, half time in the NFL. - 16 out of 32 are done. - What? What division do you want to do next? - Obviously, the NFC West. I don't even think it's a question. - That's a big question. (laughs) - It's a big question. - Oh, man. I guess start with the card, so. - Yeah, we'll have some Hall of Fame game, John Beck Reflections. - John Beck, Carson Beck. Carson Beck, well, I was Hall of Fame, Carson Beck. Hot off the press is dated. - It is like watching the world's worst rock from the U8 before banging the hottest grill, you know, three times. - The Hall of Fame. - No, the Cardinals into the other three. - Oh, yes, yes. - 'Cause the other three are gonna be a lot of fun. The Cardinals can be kind of depressed. - They, I honestly like. - And I love love, actually. - Oh, great call. - Wait, what, actually? Is that the Chris McLean? - What's with gasoline? - Oh, love, actually. Love, actually? - No. - What's, Steve Crrell? - That's crazy stupid love.