2026 Atlanta Falcons Preview: Roster, Odds & Win Total

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died, featuring you're esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz Bers. Welcome to The Deep Dive. We're talking about the saddest division in football and I don't actually think it's close. Right now with there are probably I would say three, a cluster of three, like best divisions in football. That's of course the NFC West, the AFC West, and the NFC North. Just chock full good teams. They're not all good, right? A chock full good teams, lots of good matchups, lots of good rivalries. And then there's another cluster of four divisions that have some good and some bad. And then there's the NFC South. And when I look across the South Andy and I've been the teams into different categories, on at first crack, I put all four NFC South teams into my third bin, which is what are we doing here? Like what's the plan? Like you're not competing for a championship surely. You're not like at stage zero or one of a rebuild. So like what are we doing? Like what is the plan? And I actually am going to move today's team, the Atlanta Falcons out of bucket three and into bucket four of non compete because the longer and harder I've stared at trying to come up with fair numbers here, the less likely I think it is that the Falcons have set themselves up for any modicum of competition on the balance of the season. I am prepared to be wrong. Like I'm prepared to be surprised. The rest of the division does stink. The Falcons could stand up and just accidentally win eight games and go to the playoffs. And none of us should be surprised that the Panthers did the last year. Panthers won a three way tie at eight nine. That was kind of once we got into this division, I kind of forgotten that. I'm like, oh yeah, we had the weird, the weird finish last year with, you know, the Panthers getting the playoffs actually playing kind of, they didn't play to the playoffs. They had a nice performance. You know, we've talked about some teams that made the playoffs this year that were like, oh, no, they went to the playoffs and shit the bad. And that was terrible. Like the Panthers weren't that bad. But yeah, the Falcons, I tried to build a best case scenario on my head. Like, how does this turn out? Like you said, how does this turn into, hey, they accidentally won the division with nine or 10 wins? 10, putting it maybe eight or nine, eight or nine or ten. So I'm not going to entertain it. I'm not going to answer the question. I'm not going to respond to it. No, nor do I understand the premise. I am, I think, yeah, it all comes down to panics comes back as soon as humanly possible. He's actually closer to, yeah, he's closer to ready than any of us believe. And he's better than, and he's better than he was last year, certainly. Because, you know, the silver, the silver lining or the, the high points on this team is they do have some good surrounding cast offensively. Eventually one of their past restures will come back. He's not, you know, he's not out the whole year. Yeah. And they have a couple of good offense lineman. It's not, it's not the cup is not the cup is not bare. No, but it's so bare at the most important spot. And then you have a pretty unknown kind of an incomplete when you're looking at what's to Fansky and Reese are going to be doing with the offense. So from my perspective, if you're starting your season with 200 center, you're not competing this year. You've given up. Yeah. And we just did, we just did the, the podcast for the chargers. I know that long ago, we saw how Mike McDaniel was looking and talking at the beginning of the season. He was ready for the sweet and brave, he wanted to walk into traffic. So here's, here's the, here's the million dollar question. Andy, you ready for this one? Should we upgrade the chargers again after we did it? No, we do this exercise and it's like, man, I might, should I give McDaniel another bump? No, I know that the key question is like, the browns are in the similar situation of they just don't have an answer at quarterback, right? You have, we have, you know, it's actually the parallels are almost spooky. You have a guy who used to be good a long time ago, we know through injuries and through degradation, just absolutely sucks, you know, just sucks ass now in Watson and Tua. And you have maybe, maybe a glimmer of hope of at some point during the season, we could put the young guy in and, and he might not suck, right? Like the quarterback situations in Atlanta and Cleveland are effectively the same the way I see him. I think the supporting cast in Cleveland is better. Like by a non trivial amount. Is that crazy? I'm really better. And I kind of like the young receivers, they just have more. They have more bites at the Apple in terms of young guys who could develop like the Falcons got B. John Robinson Drake London, I guess Kyle puts it's top, it's top heavy. Well, it is, it is a top heavy skill room. It's, it's thin past that. And those guys are extremely good and efficient, but here's the thing. And in the case of both of these teams, it's one of those where, you know, you buy the, you buy the Lamborghini, but you can't afford the tires, and it isn't anywhere. You know, you have a B. John, you have a, a Drake, you have all the, all the players at Cleveland's putting out there an offense and it's like, Hey, these are good players, but our quarterback stinks. And that's going to just drag them down because of the old, you know, it can't, it's the opposite of can't throw the ball to himself. Just I was really hoping you were just going to agree with me. And the Browns 2 through 53 is better, because that sets up the, Kevin Stefansky was finally, finally giving his, his relief from the shadow of a franchise that was the Browns, and he inherited a team that might have been, that might be worse. I mean, it is funny, it is very funny, that's to say, it's very funny from quarterback Hale. Yes. Another level, I'm going to have to leave Dumpty's in Fernod and figure out what level of quarterback Hale is on now. I mean, almost for his sake, and I'm not like a Falcon fan, I'm not going to have Falcon's futures. I'm probably not going to make any money off this, if this opinion is true, but like, not opinion, but hope. I kind of hope panics is okay. Or of course. Of course. I mean, I just, just, you know, just for viewing, for viewing pleasure. Did you, do you have an opinion on why he sucked so bad last year before you got hurt? Because it was this, his numbers will like stand out in the, especially sucky category for some reason. And I kind of don't really write, I don't remember that watching the games. Like I don't remember like, is that why, is that why it was, that's why it's so up, so up, so up into the right for the right handed quarterbacks. And he's just stuck up into the left, or down into the left, because his left handed quarterback. I think maybe the coaching staff was kind of lost there as well. It wasn't a strong coaching staff in Atlanta. Okay. Well, I got to tell you the, you know, the reason the, the, I don't know, the reasons for being hopeful are, are very, very tough to identify in Atlanta the way this team is rostered. And I think, honestly, I'm like, even, I, I get it. They paid a bunch of linemen who have what Pro Bulls, all pros type of, you know, second team, all pro type of resumes. Like, I'm not sure I'm seeing it with these guys, and they just gave these guys a bunch of money. And now these guys basically just fat and happy and paid. And I don't know, man, like I'm, I'm really, really, really curious if, if there's a downside bet to be made on the Falcons for being Norse team in the NFL. I hate to be that pessimistic. Yeah, if two of plays, I mean, this defense could be problematic with you, you lost some players. We'll get to a lot of that. We'll get to the offseason. Anything else before we get to some of the offseason stuff? Not really. Let's go for it. Yeah, this, I didn't think this one would be this depressing, but I saw the, uh, and spoiler alert, not a spoiler alert, but just a programming note. We're off this week. We're taking a break before the season. We recorded this on August 20th. So if something crazy happened, like two, I got good between now. I'm okay, betting again. against that. Yeah, I'm sorry, the the eggs on our face, but I doubt it. So if we did miss something that is why the the whole NFC South podcast series will be pre-recorded about a week early. So apologies if something else happened. I don't think we can have any more bad things happen to the defensive lines. So maybe we start we start with that. Okay, the Jalen Walker. He actually was a good run defender. He had what five sacks. He was carted off immediately when camp started. I mean, it was like I don't remember if it was day one, but it was definitely week one at Suck because it was looking like a guy who was going to take a year to leap. And they were kind of counting on it. And now he is out for the season. And James Pierce Jr. is also suspended for the first eight games. He was another guy what, 11 sacks, 45 pressures. He he filed the personal conduct policy after February arrest. So no good. He is going to be able to do some preseason stuff. And then he will be eligible to return week nine in Madrid versus Cincinnati. But again, David, does he pick up a phone? And did he pick up a felony? I don't know. I didn't follow the actual court proceedings on this. I mean, it gave him the hate games. That's not good for, hey, you're too first. I'm asking you, because there's a lot of foreign countries now that are not giving you visa. I have a felony. So he might be actually secretly and it's secretly a nine game suspension, because he's not allowed into Spain. Yeah. God, that reminds me. And this news will be stale by the time this podcast, but it just made me think of Nick Curios, who, it's like Nick Curios hit with a band for doing coke. Oh, what tournament was? Oh, my York guy. It was in my York. All the tournaments. You can't go to my York and not do a little nose beers. Anyway, David, I'm Yamada. Kaden Alice are gone. They were. I'm Yamada was one of the better interior defenders. Alice was a guy who played 1,000 snaps had a decent pass rush grade. So this, this pass rush was something that was going to be, hey, this is something that's going to get better. And we're excited about this. And it's not, it's not getting there because of the injury suspensions and the, what do you want to call it? Departures? The biggest addition to a tag of Yola, Yola. I still haven't. Tag by Lola. Tag by Lola. Pentaxes of this moment has not been cleared for contact. Office ACL injury. You got Cooper rush on this roster as well. Technically, Stefansky hasn't named a week one starter, but I don't, it doesn't seem to me that at this point in the game, Pentax is just going to be ready. So, I mean, we didn't see a lot of starters in the first game. Maybe we'll see it a little more if we go, but it wasn't great. He is your, he's your big addition, I guess. And it's not exciting whatsoever. We got another B Robinson Jr. Brian Robinson Jr. from San Francisco, formerly of the commanders. They added Austin Hooper from New England, the tight end. God, what was it? Samson Ubikum. Abukum. Abukum. Abukum. Abukum. From Indy, Aziz O'Jalari, Linebacker from Philly to Sean Hand from the Chargers. And yeah, I mean, they're thin. These guys are going to, these guys are going to have to do some playing. They brought a new specialist. We have Zayn Gonzalez leaving for Miami. So now we have Nick Folk and Jake Bailey at Kicker and Punter. They brought in Jahan Dotson from Philly. He's, we've got Dotson. They got Dotson. It's going to get thin. He's, he's probably starting, but he because we don't have a ton behind Drake London this point. Christian Harris, Linebacker from Houston. He's another guy that's, I guess what? You're, you're starting Ed. You know, he came from Houston. Good, good for you. Mason Smith. Mason with two A's. Are we doing that? Sure. A lot. Not a lot. Mason Smith was a trade. I think maybe during the draft or pre-draft. Mason Smith. So another, another defensive lineman, because they need help upfront. Big guy. No, it's tackle. Rook. Oh, oh, oh, oh, I've never been, never been, never been great with that one. Oh, boy. I, yeah, he got it. He was, he was the player traded to Jacksonville and then lost a couple of the, I mean, lost. Who else? I don't know. Anumata was probably your best run defender. I guess. Yeah. Caden. Caden Ella. Did you said Cadenallis, right? Yeah. He kicked ass for you last year. That's going to hurt. Those, those were the bigger ones. Definitely. Anumata and Cadenallis on the, on the defensive front, the front seven. But then, Arnold and Bikide. Leonard Floyd. It's just kind of out there now because, I mean, he's just a passenger. I maybe got picked up. Contavia Street, Winchester Chicago. I did not mention Kurt Kustins was released. He's not in this team anymore. And then Tyler Lger, Terazona, Darnel Mooney released. He's a giant now. Elijah Wilkinson was lost for agency on the offensive line to Arizona. He was, he was a guy who played a lot of snaps last year. It might be addition by subtraction, honestly, for him. And then Caleb McGarry. Where'd he go? Who's he played for? Oh, you're tired. That's right. He did. He lost. You, you actually lost a lot. You had a lot of roster turnover on this team. Like massive amount of turnover. Ronnie Harrison, Corner and Safety. You weren't very good. Yeah, you weren't very good last year. And like players six players play players four through 12 in terms of, you know, I'm actually, I should, I shouldn't. We have to get to an offensive line conversation at some point. We got to put some of the offensive lines in ahead of like players six through six through 13 are gone from last year. Yeah. And the guys you backfilled with are there for a bit. They were, they didn't have another home for a reason. Yeah. Two time AP coach of the year, Kevin Stofanski is your new ad coach after they should canned everybody, including who's the, was the GM? Uh, it was, uh, not, not, not. Terry, to know. Terry, he's gone. Uh, Tommy Reese from Cleveland as well. Stofanski's letting him call place. Jeff Albrek retained from the Morris status. A little bit of continuity on the defensive side. He's got his work cut out for him. Uh, because while there's continuity at the coaching, there's certainly not continuity on the roster outside of what isn't going through. Yeah. I mean, it's like, uh, baits, Terrell Hughes and divine Diablo. A lot of, a lot of new faces on the defense. I guess we're expecting a lot of 12, 12 personnel from Reese outside zone play action more the same kind of what we saw when we did see workable deep offenses in Cleveland. And then, uh, you know, Albrek is, like we said, the same as last year, but without the benefit of having these fun young ed rushers. So I don't know what he's doing for pressure. If it's going to be more, more based on whoever stepping in at the outside linebackers as these Oshulari have become like, have fun trying to manufacture pressure this year. It's going to be tough for you. Yeah. Um, yeah, Albrek's daughter passed away in July, Linda, July, after a cancer battle. Yeah. So yeah, not a good summer for Mr. Albrek. Um, the one thing I guess we didn't, I, I think we are where we are with this roster. It's very, very, very, very weak holes everywhere. Uh, worse than it was last year and last year wasn't very good. Um, Ian Cunningham is technically the GM, but by all accounts, this is like the Matt Ryan show. Is that what you're going to get it out of this? Yeah, he has quite a bit of power in something. What's, what's his, what's he prioritizing? I wonder, because I can't tell from the moves that I made this off season. He's trying to, he's trying to yield a 53 man roster. Is that what we're trying to do? He's just trying to, finally beat Tom Brady it's something okay and we're working with the teams here and I think they're both gonna be pretty bad this year I don't know any other offseason notes offseason is I don't know an F and some of it's not your fault like yeah it stinks about well here's a good you want to pause it up you know Jalen Walker stuff stink but you lost two really good defenders and like what were your additions what is your best edition because two is the big name like Christian Harris I name your best edition the kicker keep you say the kicker he's so good is Nick folks so good the punter is pretty good punter I don't think so yeah who's your favorite addition to this team I'm gonna go I don't even really like that move all right I'm gonna go Dotson Johan Dotson okay you got Dotson I'll accept it there's no right answer here there's no right answer all right I'm glad this one doesn't have the live comments for us because I feel like people be like wow what the hell I'll say something positive about their offseason oh God have fun the the state Mercedes-Benz stadium did a marvelous job hosting the world cup they did a mark a fantastic job you met one of the best moments of the world cup happened there the England Argentinia match I would say that was probably the high watermark of the whole tournament I was funny too I'd seen maybe the athletics set it was an article about you know how these soccer soccer needs to capitalize on that wave of excitement and make sure all these fans you know hey start watching the EPL and stuff now and and maybe some dude but it's like hey are you stupid footballs about to start you needed if you wanted to capitalize on this you needed to start soccer three weeks ago but you stated to move everything up oops and that's all right but they did a great job hosting so golf club all right the Falcons before we get into their ratings which is going to be more depressing you can you I I'm I'm I'm going to I'm going to do something crazy no no yes when we get into survivor talk for week one you have you already seen the survivor is a week one is just painted chargers Jags like it's char everyone's taking chargers and then there's the healthy amount of Jags I mean call me call me stupid call me crazy whatever both of those teams have humongous issues with the offensive line as we speak agree or disagree agree hard agree does it feel good going out on a limb with either of those teams in survivor week one when you could take the Steelers who are playing the Falcons and is there an advantage advantage kind of against the extreme you know out outside of the stream a bit by just picking against the Falcons for as long as two is the starter because that is that I don't hate it and truthfully like what what is going to disaffect Rogers the most a good pass rush a good front seven we don't have that here thank you Rogers Rogers it's going to be like a good right off the bat and people are going to be like all right Rogers return I was entertaining playing the Falcons plus the points when we did the Steelers podcast I would love that scrubbed from the internet because I will I will take I will not be taking I will not be taking three points with the Falcons in the game I may lay three points with the Steelers the way things have unfolded here's the here's the point we're going to be signing up for survivor and we're going to do it with Cerca and that's because the Cerca millions this year is going to crest 20 million it could crest 22 million it may crest 25 million but it will be the greatest and most awesome contest that has ever been run in pro football space and for that reason go to Nevada we'll go to Las Vegas well in fact you may be listening this we may be in Las Vegas but we'll have just been gotten home from Las Vegas you may have just seen us you may have just seen us oh dude contest sign up weekend it was actually good seeing you it was awesome it was nice to sign up weekend was awesome well who you're talking you are if you missed your chance of seeing us and hanging out and signing up for contest during contest sign up weekend there's still time you can even sign up after opening game opening night cleaned up all the blood my head is fine stadium swim is open again everything's cool and it's yes if you have any questions on proxy on how to enter on you know how things work or just strategy hit us up love talking survivor love talking millions love the contests we are we're in to go this year thank you to Circa and Circa sports contests for sponsoring the podcast and let's get into Stefansky year one in Atlanta go over some ratings here and I thought I was low and then Drew's numbers come in and slap slap slap that red out of my mouth a little I'm on a one QBOC I've seen enough I honestly don't even it like I hate to be reactionary to preseason games but between the preseason games between the practices the joint practices every report we've seen to a cannot operate the position of quarterback in the NFL anymore it's over and it does not seem like he has a very strong grasp of the playbook it doesn't seem like it's the end and this is sad because it's we're not that far removed from two of being an above average QB having to be rated in the sixes and sevens when he was paired with McDaniel the problem is he was repeatedly can cost and repeatedly can cost to the tune of like severe severe impacts of his cognitive cognitive ability is clearly impacted it doesn't feel like you know and and he was a guy whose cognitive ability had to overcome some of his limited skill set because he doesn't have a cannon for an arm anyway and now he doesn't have the tools or the you know kind of you know X factors intangibles that you can use to overcome that to play quarterback and so I don't care if Stefansky is the all-time quarterback whisperer and actually you know what man I'll be you want to you want to you want a weird you want a weird pro we're prognosking the future you're listening to this in a couple weeks the Falcons have made a move for Mason Rudolph like he's starting week one right like there's absolutely scope that Stefansky decides I'm not going I'm not doing it I mean at that point if you're gonna do that you could probably just say I'm starting Cooper rush that's not that much worse they signed him I mean he was a he was a camp signing because like day one it was uh two oh wasn't ready panics wasn't ready and I can't even remember the guy's name the guy played for the University of Minnesota more head where fun fact that's where Mark Dressman went is that that's it yes he's a I believe it's I believe they're the dragons they're part of the University of Minnesota extended family yeah it could get rough I'm at a 1.8 I thought that was pretty third full enough but I mean how bad is it have to be before Matt Ryan comes down in his sides he can take a couple snaps Philip Philip River style he's Philip Rivers is Philip Rivers available no let's not do all right yeah the the two of preseason I mean Drake Drake London played two of the snaps it's so bad it's not in play Denver brought a lot of pressure did you do you practice reports though yeah I know everything looks bad everything looks so poopy I see numbers a little higher than you my number is a little higher and I will defend it all right what do you got I don't hate I don't hate the time he reached stuff Matt Ryan likes him he's like he says Matt Ryan said inexperienced when it comes to play calling but he's experienced at calling plays like I think he's gonna step into the role and be fine he just he has such a limited ceiling because of the quarterback I think I don't think he's going to be a detriment I think I'm fine with Tommy Reese I'm obviously very out on to it and that's why I'm at a 1.8 which is about as low as we go here when you get the word that week for panics is taken over. What are you going to raise it to? Like a three and three and a half. He was not great. I don't have a good, you know, the sample is not huge and but the sample that we have is not great. He had very bad games against the Vikings, Panthers and Colts. He had Enda Niners. He had met bad games against the Patriots, Bills and he had good games against the Panthers, commanders and Buccaneers last year. So it was a little bit of a, it was a little bit of a, you know, dealer's choice with when he was good or bad. And I do have one more quote from Reese himself. He said this. He said, it's not really about what you want the offense to be. It's about what your players can do and what puts them in a position to have success, which kind of reads to me that he knows his roster's not that good. And he's willing to put, put out, you know, not try to be Mike McDaniel week one. And like I'm here I am in Miami and I have these weapons and we're going to go score 70. It's going to be a breathtaking life changing offense. We're going to change everything. I think he realizes like I have to just trudge on here and eat this shit sandwich. And because I, you know, he's a name that's been bandied around by people. It's like he's he's elevating quickly through the ranks as somebody who's, you know, gonna be a head coach down the road. All right. Well, you have to you have to you have to just eat it here and do what you can with two. Okay. Well, I'm at a one upgrading to a three when penics takes over. Skill position group for me is a five. If this were if this were weighted only based on the top, it would be more like a seven. But I mean, if you're up against the team that has a CB one that can make life a little tough on Drake London, I don't really know what the plan is in the passing game. Beigeon Robinson might face more stacked boxes this year than any running back has faced in their career. I would expect that he if he has opportunities to get the second level, he may still be productive. But I think he's is he consensus 1.01 in fantasy. I don't know. I don't either. I don't work. I study for fantasy, but I don't understand these people that study like three weeks. I'm not going to retain that information anymore. I study like come on. You're calling my like, you know, you know, I think he is. I would I would if I had the first back in which I won because I don't want to see all purpose yards. I'm sure he is. I yeah, I would I don't I wouldn't wouldn't get involved. Just saying I don't have the number one pick because I'm not terrible. Is that how it goes? You really do it. We do reverse sort of based on finishing order. Yeah, champion. No, no, we make it champion champion picks last. And we do we do have a consolation bracket to toilet bowl. Sure. You do have to win. You do have to win the first overall pick. You have to win. If you're the best of the lousy and you win the shitty consolation bracket, you get the number one pick rather than the guy who tanked. Ah, okay. That's a fun ring. You can tank to the tube, but we don't have my fantasy draft is like Labor Day, man. It's in like practically October. Yeah, this year it is super really really. I'm at 5.4. We have not mentioned Kyle pits at all. Is that what? He had 88 catches for like 900 yards. Yeah, but like where does that put him even in this pantheon of tight ends in the end of any end of like 10s top 10 this love that he's above average above average. Okay. He's very much above average. And I think we're going to see, you know, more of him and Hooper on the field at the same time. I don't hate Hooper. Obviously Bajan and Drake London or elite. But yeah, it gets real thin after that. Johan Dodson, Trace Sermon, as you know, another back he's in the building apparently. I think Bajan Brian Robinson, Tyler Goodson, back up when receivers named Chris Blair, Vinnie Anthony, the second, Antoine Wells and Keelan Marion behind, you know, all the media is the chaos at the slot with Branch and Drummond behind him. So it's thin past these stars. I'm at a 5.4. My offense of line number 5.9. Yeah. Might be the highest number I have on this team. Andy, Kyle pits was what rank in yards per route run for tight ends last year. 1.7 yards would have put him. How did you pull 1.7? I just know. I had to study for. Come on. Come on. I have my notes. 1.71 to be precise. How did you pull that? I haven't in my notes. I haven't. It's crazy. I said 88 for 9.28. I don't know like 11th. 17th. Okay. I still think he's above average. He was. Okay. I'm going to call an average. All right. Well, offense and one. You're saying it's easier to break out. Let's spread our legs a little here. The range of opinions and grades across this offensive line unit is like it would break. Like if the Falcons mattered, I would have broken my brain spending time trying to figure out this number because like by some metrics, by the mouth they're getting paid, like there are some elite players in this group. And then in the other end of the spectrum, like there were some pretty suspect numbers out there for particularly pass block grades for guys that are perceived as really good in this unit. And I'm curious if you think is like is there a you're blocking for Bijan Robinson? Kind of breaks tackles. Is there a is that one of the things that's happening here? Because like the number that the numbers that they paid, who are the guys that got paid? Lindstrom and and Bergeron for two guards. Lindstrom and Bergeron got paid off lock time. Like they're elite guards. And I think Brandon Thorn thinks they're good. But some of the grades I've seen on them were not very, very good. So my head is spinning here. Can you talk me through the right way to perceive this group? Wilkerson was a weak spot. He was the weak spot. He's gone. So that maybe like I said, addition by subtraction probably, but like Joanne Taylor. Okay. Oh, okay. Joanne Taylor having the step in for yeah. I was vamping a little bit. Joanne Taylor stepping in as your right tackle. Is that correct? Yeah. What does that mean for the Falcons? See off pop. No, no. That means he's the blind side tackle because he is the worst blind side tackle in the NFL full stop. Yeah, it stinks. You didn't because you have a good left tackle. Yeah, your left tackle is awesome. In fact, your left tackle is your best player on your offensive line. Okay. So Matthew Bergeron created out as a negative as a left guard by some grading, you know, grading folks. Nusel, small minus, Lindstrom, small plus. The Brandon Thorn. Actually, I misspoke. He didn't like Bergeron. He didn't like Nusel. He does like Chris Lindstrom. He doesn't put Lindstrom in rare, rare, rare. He's got him in like the, who's he got him comped with, you know, like a Cody Mock kind of a player. All right. I don't really dispute that. David Edwards, who just, you know, moved from the bills to the Saints, kind of got the same grade as a guard. Damien Lewis for Carolina. I think actually Damien Lewis, I would take him over Lindstrom and I wouldn't think twice. So yeah, of course. So I guess where I'm at is like, there's definitely a, for some reason they've compensated these guys. If there's perception around in some places that these guys are very good. But I'm kind of not buying it with the underlying data. And so for those reasons, I'm coming in out of five for them, which may be perceived as pretty low. What say you? Yeah. I mean, I understand the arguments and it's, it's tough to grade, It's tough to greet offensive lawyer. I'm at 5.5, my bad. 5.5. Okay. It's tough to grade offensive lineman because it's a unit because there's a lot of, like you said, there's other moving pieces around them that can make them look better and worse. We've had the same conversation around quarterbacks who get themselves sacked a lot. It's like, hey, he gave up a bunch of sacks. That was dipshit back there who doesn't know when to get rid of the ball. That's not me. I can't block for 14 seconds. He needs to throw the ball at some point. Some of that. But for my money, I just, I try not to dig too deep. If a guy's good and he's grading good and he's been good for several years, I'm just going to say that Bergeron's good. I'm going to say good enough. I'm going to say news all is good enough to be not a negative. He's probably a plus. He only allowed 14 pressures and like a thousand snaps. It's pretty good for his center. I'm going to say that Jake Matthews is great. Yeah. No, no, and then the right side is tough. This would be a much higher number if we had maybe, again, if you had a right handed quarterback, I'd probably raise the number, like he said, but at the same time, like just a pulse on that right tackle would be great. Yeah. He said he started, John Taylor started camp on pop. He's stepping in for a much better player and it's probably going to be a problem. TN pegged this as the fourth best offensive line, which was eyebrow raising, sorry, seventh best. Four for four has them 24th. Thorn has them 17th. So I think the right answer is somewhere around five and it's a good thing it doesn't matter. Yeah. Offense for me for the, as a whole, man, something happens to be John Robinson. This looks real bad real quick. They are 28th. This is a 31st percentile offense. Defense. Is there anything above average for you? Runs up average coverage. I actually have a good coverage number. Okay. I struggled with that one the most because these guys. Yeah. So I'm going to probably have to bring this down because how I feel about the relationship between coverage and past rush and the past rush is going from the past rush. Everybody's healthy, unsuspended, even with all the the exodus, the past rush is probably six. Yeah. And it's more like a four now. It's it's swung pretty hard, just based off, you know, they added some pieces and I know you're lower than that on past rush. But I do want to give a little bit of credit to Ulbrich and also say that, you know, we added Zadarius Smith, who is a warm body that's better than some of the stuff that we're going to see at the like he's not he's not a cold body because I don't remember last time I saw him take. I don't remember last time he was retired. So I don't I don't have him sliding in be like, Hey, you're taking all of Walker's rotation chair because that's ridiculous with him coming in off a retirement. I mean, he wasn't playing. So I mean, it's a small move up for him. But I'd like that they're trying to do something because otherwise it's ever come. Oculary braille and trice until they, you know, until they get until they get James Pierce Jr. back. So I'm at a 4.2 for past rush. That's probably a bit high. And then my coverage is a 5.7. And some of that is is based on who's left and how I feel about stuff. Jesse Bates's peak was higher than what we saw last year. Yes, it was. Divine Diablo. Very good coverage backer. Yes, AJ Tarell, AJ Tarell's peak was certainly not last year. Yeah, that's kind of my problem. I'm building in like 80% of his peak and saying he's going to play better. But at the same time with with the past rush being poor compared to what we thought it was going to be. I think my number needs to be closer to a five year. Save your watts. Good young safety. Yeah, nice. I went with 4.9 for runstop. There's a world where that goes down. I'm at a 4.8 there. So we're poor about the same there. I'm not a matter. I'm not a matter. But Harrison and Doris are fine. Dorolas, whatever his name is. Yeah, they're fine players again. Diablo divine Diablo is good. Yeah, he's good decent. The question I have is past rush. I am not. I mean, the way again, one, two, three, four, your top four past rushers from last year are gone. Maybe your top five, depending on how you care about how much you care about Leonard Floyd, I do not. That's and the backfill is weak. So this number should be among the lowest in the NFL. I think I'm out of three. And then coverage for me, I went a 4.1. And this one was tough because I like Bates. He's still grading well, even though he's a million years old. I like AJ Terrell. I like Xavier Watts. He's grading well. And he's young. So he should improve. But that's three. That's three names. Usually I like to see five that have acceptable grades in the coverage realm. And having three is not enough. The linebacking core Diablo can cover. But Ronnie Harrison is just okay and coverage. Yeah, neutral. Yeah, see. Yeah, the other. And one of the other problems I have with my coverage here, excuse me, not Ronnie here. Sorry. This, yeah, Christian Harris is coverage grade probably has to come down a little too with a Bowman being injured. I don't think he's playing a week one or deeper into that. So he was kind of penciled in to be your nickel. And that sounds like his pop is going to extend into the season or yeah, I mean, I need more Billy Bowman information in total. This is a 40th percentile defense for me, 26th best in the NFL. Let's look at the chart. I'm curious where he was. I thought it was a knee, but it was an Achilles for him. So we need your coaching number for the Falcons is a 5.3. I went with a 3.5. So you are almost a fancy guy as a leader. He is a leader. And I like Albrecht as the continuity piece. And sometimes he was not. He was not a dipshit when it came to 4th down stuff. That's true. I don't know. I don't put him at the highest echelons of that, but there's a lot of guys versus like this guy shouldn't be allowed to make those decisions. And there's like, I tell you what else, you did get a guy that's experienced knowing how to coach a team that's going to be pretty shitty. He's got the reps. He's got the reps. Special teams were both at a 3. That's solid. Our shapes are very similar although yours is bigger, which means you're at a 40.5 percentile. I'm at a 33.3 percentile. I have this as a replacement level team, 33.3 percentile. That equates to a minus 4. For me, you're at a minus 2.69. Right now the market is a minus 2.94, which means Andy's betting on the Falcons. I'm against them. I'm going to lower my coverage grade. And just based on the fact that I lowered my pass rush a little more. You're going to slide under that 2.94. You want to be at a 3. I'm going to be closer to a minus 3 here, I think. You want to be at a minus 3. Okay. Let's look at the skid, y'all. Somehow seven wins implied. My guess is that this is because of their division. I think that this is like, I mean, yeah, we're a ways removed from all of these look ahead lines being dropped on the public. We haven't seen a lot of, I mean, I just haven't been tracking market movement of low liquidity look ahead lines. So I have no idea of things have moved against them. But I'm guessing that there are probably a handful of games on the schedule where they are two and a half, one and a half point dogs that are probably more likely threes once we get there. Although there's some bad teams on the schedule. A lot of them in their division. But yeah, what a stretch here. Five out of six weeks, they are four and a half point dogs from week five to week 10. That's wild. I don't know that I agree that they will be hosting the Carolina Panthers week two as favorites. I feel like there's absolutely scope for Carolina to come there as a pick them are a small favorite, which means that we may not see the Falcons favorite at all this year. The only other game on their schedule with their favorite is the New Orleans Saints week 17. That's a. Things could look very different by the time we get to week 17. In fact, the mission may not be to compete if you're a Atlanta at that point in the season. And the Saints might be, you know, just kind of caying around trying to get a either a. division spot or crazy, crazy or things have been said going for a wild card or you know you actually I take it back. The Saints might be quote unquote in the hunt at that point and the and the Falcons may be out of the hunt which might have changed that paradigm a little bit so. I don't think the Falcons be out of contention because nobody seems to ever be out of contention in this but it'll be it'll be like the teams that are in the hunt and they're all like three three games above 500. Yeah and they'll be still alive. There's that there's that one column of still alive and it'll be three three it'll be three teams from the the the NFC South. 4 in 12 Atlanta Falcons still alive. Not in a little bit somehow. All right so a lot of opportunities in the schedule I think to get a little bit creative with using teams against the Falcons and survivors I was teasing in the commercial break. Week one Pittsburgh is a fun one. Who's another middling team that you would be happy to take against the Falcons Saints week four might be interesting. Actually Saints week four we got to talk about they put the Falcons on prime time three weeks in a row. So cold weather spot cold weather spot late in the season at Washington. That's an interesting one surely surely. I wanted to bring up that Saints game week four Monday night football. Why are we doing that? You don't know. Steve Gleason. Is it a Steve Gleason thing? What are they what are they honoring him for just for that game or I think it's the 20 year anniversary of reoccurring the punt. I think it's the 20 year anniversary of reopening the the don't add or Katrina. Oh yeah. It's the 20 year anniversary. You want to hear something? Something kind of fucked up. What? Like generally in Minnesota we were so sick of hearing about I feel terrible like I wasn't I wasn't as bad as some I had friends because our Vikings lost to that team and then you had to live and then you had to see two weeks of like you know the rising from the ashes from the floods and like it was like because you felt terrible because people died and it was a horrible tragedy but you're still so but hurt that the Vikings lost that game and it's like all right we get it there's a hurricane like some of my friends were really mean about it. I'm like I don't know if we can say this stuff out loud. So the Katrina stuff the Katrina stuff just reminds me of far of throwing across this body. That was 2009. It was really sad and people died but no that's what I'm saying. It's like messed up but that's just the human condition when you're a fan of the team you're like I don't care I don't care about what happened in your city I've never been there. Yeah anyway look at this schedule this is this is this looks like a four to five win schedule to me no notable travel or rest a bunch of late season cold weather games you're I don't know I just don't see what the path to victory in any game is for the Falcons this year I think this team is going to struggle mentally and for those reasons I guess what I guess this is like the kind of key right like first overall pick they're taking a quarterback right top three pick they're taking a quarterback what's the like is there's a hard reset for these guys next year is that the is that the path they want worst case scenario for this team is a top three to five pick but panics was like marginal where it's like he's not good enough to be like all right we're all in on this kid we're building around him but he wasn't bad enough start eight games and wins four and it looks fine yeah it's like he's in that in between area and you're like god do we waste this pick on a quarterback when we have a guy that maybe is a gear away from being above average and obviously two at that point is retired it's you're going into your four panics at that point without any information on him really I don't think you I don't I think this is Penox's final by the apple and he's not just gonna have to look okay he's just he's gonna have to look like he has the answers because the injury risk with him so it's proven it's proven out yeah the further the falcons are from the first pick the less good he has to look for them to be like okay you know what I mean like yeah if it's it's the fourth pick I'm like all right well maybe we stick with the kid if they have the first overall pick and he hasn't loved them it's gonna be hard to pass on a quarterback based on everything I'm hearing from kind of pretty tall you know the talent evaluators it right now it feels like four the first five picks could be cubies next year which is wild we're gonna get a we're gonna get a big class like that um all right the um betting plan for the falcons I would look for superlative lows um I don't think this team is like they have the potential to be the biggest scoring like the biggest um I don't even think this is a betting market but like they have the potential in my opinion to have the biggest margin of victory against them because I'm just not sure how they get back into games where they're not competitive so they could have quite a few blots on their schedule against the good teams um yeah shame I mean and I felt did it to us again they they slammed a team that's probably gonna be bad into prime time early in the season before we know exactly how bad they are were you weeks in a row they did they did they did it again we have an end we have an international game that'll be a standalone god help us the bingles better be good or we're gonna be watching some bingles the Madrid the midred uh November 8 8 30 in the morning man it's gonna be a bull fight and the bingles are just going to put them out of their misery I love it um get a reference midred which is famous for bull fights and it's famous for bull fights uh betting betting many thoughts for you I'm done talking about the falcons let's talk about the panthers I've kind of intrigued to see where you landed there because I don't have a sense of whether you're pro or against panties tune in next time carolina panthers bang the drum