2026 AFL Season - Round 3 Preview

(upbeat music) - G'day, punters, and welcome to another episode of the Fuddy Farm God podcast. For a few rounds in now, we're approaching Easter, we're approaching Gather Round, Fuddy is warming up. Still got more buys though. Anyway, I'm your host, Wally. Join us always by my good mate, Harrow. Harrow, hey, Garmat. - Good mate, it's nice to see you up and up there for another round of Fuddy, and I'm looking forward to getting into it. - Nice one, let's start where we always start, mate, let's get stuck into the highlights and low lights from another pretty good week of punting. - Yep, no, a lot more positives over the negatives, Wally. And for mine, the highlight of the weekend, I do love tipping up an underdog to win. And we did that with the Saints against GWS. And so amongst all the highlights, I think that that was my favorite for the weekend. We always talk to the best bet, of course. And that one, I do understand that a lot of the punters, you know, at only one but half a point. Some punters are probably unlucky and gout. The line that was probably up a couple of points after the podcast came out, so they might have missed the out. So bit of a tough one, but you just think back to last year, Wally, we had that run of half point loses on the best bet, which is like incredible. Well, we get one back here, so we'll claim it. - Yep, absolutely fair enough too. - Are there any negatives? - Yeah, I actually did light North Melbourne against West Coast, just after North's first performance. But to the credit, West Coast showed that they're actually going to be a lot better this year, I think than what people realize. They played fantastic, especially at home, I think. And so, look, was King on North and got that one wrong, mate. All right, there you go, mate. All right, and onwards and upwards. So looking forward to this week, with plenty of like across the round now. The selection table from last week, I actually got a couple of mates hit me up. And usually if my mates hit me up, it's usually to give me shit until we were not doing right. But a couple of them said, "Hey, didn't mind this," I said, all right, let's continue it. So my ins and outs for this week across the world of footy. First one, ins, 'cause it has to be a Thursday and Friday night footy, propping up the AFL and the weekend's slides. Yeah, opening round was pretty much average across the board. We know that. But then the next three or four games have been absolute crackers. Hawthorne Eston was the other one, which, well, some of us were happy. And then we've got, Crozepies, GWS, sorry, Croz and Katz down at the Catering in GWS Pies this weekend. And the rest of the week is not great. So Thursday and Friday nights are propping up the slate of games each weekend at the moment. My next one is Ben King. There's two Kings and they're very, very, very different stories. And I don't think anyway, really knew which King was gonna be the better one when they're in the draft. And you know what I mean? Like, there's a bit of luck of the draw in this. But with these deliveries, kick 16 goals in three games. It's an obvious one, but there is a chance that that hundred might get kicked. There's also a big chance to get kicked at people's first stadium and there's no one there to run on the ground. That is also a big chance, but there is a chance. So gives us that hope. The Gensers stuff last year was so exciting. The buildup was there and then obviously peated out a little bit, but it just gives us another, another little storyline and it's actually this team that's pretty exciting and have a lot of storylines. The last one and this is a side one. It does affect our world, but it's a sport that's coming into it. And I'm really happy this week that they have announced the date of the NFL game in Melbourne. Now, the game's gonna be between the Rams and the 49ers. So we're talking about two big franchises that, like both always, perennial pithes, that it's gonna be a divisional matchup and all that. So should we go go? When you're was going to be a weird time, it is on Friday, the 11th of September at 10.35 AM. So we're gonna be having jars at 10.30 AM in MCG, watching NFL. Here's the best part. That is semi-final weekend. So I'm banking on, they can pay one of them at Marvel or there's an interstate one, which there's been a lot of. We could go 10.30 AM jars at the G, watching NFL into a late long lunch and jars in the AVO into a semi-final at night, either under the roof or interstate in a pub. So I'm getting excited tickets are out next week. I'm gonna be there, but it's just, I love the fact that they've just gone nuts stuff. But let's just not try and avoid the AFL. Let's just try and add to one of the days. So it's gonna be great. - Is this being played for Point Swole here? - Yeah, this is a divisional game. So these two teams, divisional games are arguably twice as important, A, 'cause there's rivalries, but more than that, in the NFL just a quick 101. Every team, no matter how bad your division is, there's four teams in each division. Every division when it goes into the playoffs and either the best of them gets the wake off, but they all get home filled. So they all get a home final in a knockout playoff series if they win their division. So even if the other, you and your other teams aren't great. So everyone in your division, you beat it's like what we call an eight point game here. So this matters and they're two good teams. So yeah, definitely not an exhibition. It's a, it's a must watch. All right. What's out for me this week, Harrow? Well, I just thought I'd put all this under one banner. I, because I think it's just happened. I'm, you know what's out? I think I'm tired of the AFL trolling us as supporters. I just want to recap our first sort of month of footy. And if they are trolling us, you know, good on you. You've got a soul. First off, I went to the G for Hawthorne Sydney. A heap of food stalls were shut. I'm an AFL member, so I pay an exorbitant amount of money to do that, which has gone up year on year. That's fine because that's my membership. I've gone in the footy and I try to go to enough games to make it worthwhile. There's only like seven entries to the G. There's two gates that go into the AFL members. One of them before a Thursday night Hawthorne Sydney match was shut. The line for the other one, funnily enough, went back past the shut gate. That's what we're dealing with on Thursday night trying to get in. So that pissed me off, obviously. Then I mixed that in with the by-rounds. I touched on this last week, but I have to again. Listen to this. Last week, three of the four preliminary finalists had a buy. After we'd paid 14 games of food, this week, it's the top four teams on the ladder that have a buy. You can't make this shit up. I'm sorry, you can't. Then, fixturing in general. So after Friday night, obviously, it drops away. Three games under the loop, which I'm fine with double header at Marvel. Only a game on Sunday at the G. It's just a little deli over hypers and all that coming up. But I don't mind the extra games at Marvel. I've no secret on one of the ones that likes Marvel. I reckon there isn't a bad seat. It's easy to get to via train or car. And they've got the best restaurant options of any stadium, which I like. I like food. As you can see, Harry. Now, then there's this. Again, the. Next week, we have Easter. We have Easter weekend. So we have five days. There's another buy, Harry. Two more teams have buys. So we have five days of foodie to fill. It's Easter weekend. It's huge. We got good Friday. We got the two good Friday games. We got Easter Monday at the G. And we still got teams having buys. So I just. I'm at a lose end now in terms of what we're doing here. Whether it's featuring with his buys, whether it's in stadium and whatnot. I just. Something's got to change. All right, so that's out for me. There's a lot. There is a lot. All right, let's get back to some positive stuff because I've ranted and raved enough. I think I should start with the out and then finish with the in. So then that way, we're finishing on a good night. But. Go, Mark. Glad you got it out of your system, mate. That's. Why, it's the one thing. Like a lot of people keep me up and go, "You're a fucking idiot." But the one thing that I don't think I ever get pushed back on is the issues with fixturing and stuff like that. I think everyone agrees with it. And the overlapping of games for me, as you know, as somebody that watches, I try and watch just about every game for no other reason than I just love the sport. And so that's what I guess. I mean, just, you know, I try and put everything through a punting lens. And the overlapping games are a nightmare. And like, obviously, there's lots of stuff you're gonna miss. I love the fact that they've added the Thursday Friday 'cause it spreads the roundout a bit. 'Cause I mean, those days you used to get with five games or whatnot on a Saturday was very tough. And so I enjoy it. It's a little bit more spread out. But yeah, and then just from the evenness of the competition, petition that does that doesn't really make sense does it does it's not giving everyone a fair run at it So yeah, they they need to have a good hard long look at themselves in the room of mirrors walley and come up with something better It's not that freaking hard. I Will we gobsmacked if opening round continues next year or it's not put for a revamp They can call it opening round, but all I would you pick up smack to all times are we buying? Yeah, it's just yeah anyway all right Questions from punters got a heap whip from a couple of ones that I can knock off where is the best place to watch coaches midweek presses Simple the cub websites and some of them put it on like the club YouTube But just go to the cub website you should be able to find it there each week Zabast if we could do like one tip every week to build it up at like a dollar ten or small amount These last man standing sort of things which can be a little bit tricky my recommendation on this Really simply whatever our best bet is each week if you want to do dollar ten dollar twenty and follow it through Find the line because that is our best bet That's where we've been playing and if it's over a hundred and eighty or whatever find a 160 165 line at a dollar ten dollar twenty So if you want to build one of those just take out best bet and find the line To the dollar amount that you want to have on it. That is what I'd say Or the odd you need Couple here a row. How do we approach? Well, it's not really approaching taggers. It's just with every team seemingly having a tagger at the moment Should we be treading carefully around like the best mid in each team? And then I'll add a bit to that saying oh do we still think this is case by case? Are you putting any different lens on it or are you just still I'm case by case? I'll look at the other team. I'm not thinking about this Oh, I mean you're thinking about it, but it gets there's no blanket rule across the board of this It's really you know I love actually sitting down and going through the matchups and everything like that because I'm not just looking for tag I guess there's like other stuff that goes on as well and they're like There's guys with roles that are more subtle You know one I can think of off the top my head ever this guy's been in the media a little bit this week Patrick Voss He actually has a role within his team where he actually does try and Quail and opposition defender every week And you only pick up on these things by you know following it quite carefully It's not always just to do with the best midfielder and And so often that's teams trying to clamp a half back or yeah, it's There's the suns for instance. They're key forwards. Don't allow the key backs to get many possessions It's just the way they operate and so every team's a little bit different There's obviously some tagging going on which I'm welcome it because it gives you an opportunity When a bloke gets tagged to play the rebound the following way and But it's all case by case I go through both sides try and get every matchup put your coaches hat on see how you would do it Often you know you're right because a lot of the coaches just do what makes sense and That's the way to play it. Yep, absolutely Good afternoon The first half of this was asking I did I see we're in a sports bed ad like Behind enemy lines were on mate We've ain't Yeah, I'm you are the guy you you might be the only person that I've seen it before like sports put an incredible amount of money behind these These ads obviously yes, yes, I very much I'm in those ads With with Tammy knew how me too. She's a share to Tammy one more good mates. Anyway Next one on the back of that was which teams are pushing hard in their defensive 50 and Restricting Oppo halfbacks and that's probably one way more addressed team to team But have there been any trends yet Harrow in that or is that more of a game? We just addressed that per game Well, it's the teams who press up who keep the opposition backs quiet, okay, so And because it makes the backline more congested and It's the teams that sit back a little bit that allow those chips across the backline So like the bulldogs have been doing that a lot calling wood the teams doing it the other way around more your The year your sons Your hawks that and also you got to look at what the other look In terms of conceding possessions to backs or the hawks don't concede a lot of possessions to backs because they hang on to the footy a lot And the Brisbane lines are the perfect example of that and actually Brisbane lines are the best example of it They press up and don't allow the opposition backs a lot of space when they get the footy as well They keep it off the opposition so they're the types of things that create the conditions for backs to go a bit lower Yeah, absolutely and in fairness that question there they actually see exactly what you said It's the ones that that push up so Obviously knows your stuff so Lions go coast hawks three examples of that and that's what you look for with those. Yeah, all right now I've got excited because I read the word warpool Better he wasn't going down the angle of 30m I to be now Walpole is back for the cats will badly Smith CBAs be similar to his opening round numbers notice these CBAs increased when warpool went out Would we look at an unders pay here? Well, we actually have because we're recording this late we have the luxury wall of having the teens with tonight's game and Yeah, warpool's not in so Beautiful yeah, probably for the cats in Yeah Net turn over numbers. Okay You know, Tommy for a long time first time any Rareration between handball numbers going up and wet where the footy we know tackles go up Can you thoughts of handballs go up more ball ups quick hands interesting? I think I haven't had a chance to dive right into this and I will come back After I've had a better look at it right my My senses tell me that teams actually just try and get territory and slam the ball on the boot rather than Flick it around with the hands and I mean I don't know what your junior coaches will like walley but my junior coaches would definitely like We just want to get the ball moving forward and the quickest and best way to do that's just get it on the boot I don't recommend teams want to be overhandling the footy in the wet is my sense to it walley So but I think I will have a bit of a better look and we'll get a good look tonight With a bit of wet weather for you and also in the free a game and so might be able to establish a bit of a rule around that one after we've had a good look at it Great and the question is valid because now you can bet on kicks and handballs not just disposals with certain books so If there is a trend there, it's definitely worth getting involved the right amann Steve Do you think it's wise to be limiting the amount or size of the bets in the opening six rounds? I actually think it's a good question Essentially do we stay glower earlier in the season until we get better trends? Does that affect and like it may or may not because I was thinking about this and like oh I Mean it makes it's a logical point. It's just We still thinking hey, do you know what we can go off last year? They're still trends happening. There's certain things that won't change. What do you think? Like it does make sense what Steve says, but personally, I've always had a strong edge early in the season and so I don't bother with it but I'm definitely with other like yeah, especially people betting based on models Because the models have so much variance early in the season they take a little while to catch up that type of thing I can see the sense in in that but but with my approach I tend to find I have quite a big advantage early And so I don't stake down my bets early and that's just been my approach. That's that's worked Yeah, yeah, I got to read this out Gary is come all the way from the US. So he listens in from America. So Gary massive shout out, mate. Thank you That's awesome in your opinion where has the market over or under reacted to the first few weeks in terms of In terms of obviously totals and lines and all those sorts of things for example North Melbourne Um Being over two goals last week on the road may have been an overreaction after their first game. So I actually I actually I don't think that was I think that North just dropped the ball on that. I think the The overreaction is I don't think they're lining against essence big enough. That's a whole another thing And we'll talk about them when we get to the game Yeah, you reckon there's been any over under reactions so far? There has been a massive reaction to the scoring. I mean, I didn't I didn't think that we would say lines at 196.5 and and things like that So the book is about really quick to move and I potentially have over reacted to the early scoring going up so Yeah, I think that's where the biggest Potential overreaction is bang and we're gonna see You know, we're gonna start seeing some wet wet football and all these types of things That's gonna be interesting to see whether they can react fast enough coming back the other way when schools inevitably do start to come down again Yep, very good. Hi And last one from Dizzy was any updates on future markets. Now a few rounds have been paid. I'm just going to ask you a couple of quickfire questions. And you tell me whether we're happy, we're, we're, we're, Malon Colley, we don't feel anything or if we're, it's a good bit of panic stations. The teams we spoke about that we did like at the start of the year for the premiership of their odds were Brisbane, Frio, we also thought Sydney were going to be quite good. Of those three there, Harrow, if we said Brisbane, we, we're, I mean, like the only thing for me with Brisbane is we're getting a slightly better price and they, they start slow every year. So I'm okay with them, you still okay? - I'll be topping up actually. - Game over. - Yeah. - Frio, we're happy, happy enough. - Everything is good. - 'Cause they're still double figures, aren't they? - Yeah, Frio, they've got works to do, but I like them still, yeah. - And, and, and, - Swannies. - Swannies. - Yeah, I think they're looking good as well. Obviously the injury that he, aren't, he and he, Gordon is a problem, but he's going to be back before the end of the season. So, you know, they're going to be there and they're going to get him back. So, if we're getting a better price, great. - And you saw, like, I know that there was a whore from Mr. Hott of Opportunities, but Sydney had themselves in that game on the G without their two best players. You take your two best players out of any time and it's a completely different ballgame. Anyway, I'll just, there was a few, few players we spoke about. We spoke about Sam Plannas for the Brown load and massive price. I think we can put a line for him. But Sam Walsh has started really well. And we also spoke about him as a, as like a $67, like a little speckler, everyone. We spoke about Charlie Kernow for the comment. Again, well, he has started very slowly, but as we also know with forwards, the big key forwards, once at all clicks, if they've missed, they've had a so few weeks, it doesn't really matter. So, I think that in terms of the teams we like for the flag, good, the individual rewards, where we were like, you're probably only playing like Brown load in those big odd ones because it's so difficult. But yeah, anyway, that's the update. I could spend all day trawling through social, but there was a lot there this week and I got through most of it because they were really good questions. And as everyone knows, on social, we've got our Insta, we've got our ex or Twitter. Feel free to ask questions on there. We answer what we can keep an eye on that over the weekend to see if there's any information, especially like the Sunday games, it gets a little bit harder for us to have able to dive in too deep now. So there's usually some more information on there. And now we'll get into the games. Well, what I will say before we get into the games, just as a clear on our Saturday trip, what we do with these odds is these are the best odds available on Betts Nipah, one of their great tools is the odds comparison with the money liners called on there or the head to head and go on and check that. And this week's line to courtesy of SportsBet purely based on whoever votes for the multi-hero each week, whichever book he wins that multi-vote, I get their lines for the next week because why that's the booking that most of our punters are using. So and they're all correct as of the Thursday, 26th of the third at 9 a.m. So with that, we're recording it, hopefully it gives us an edge. Jorong Adagade at the category of $1.25, you can get as big as $4.57 on Adagade and the line is out to 26 and a half. How row it's meant to be weather around for this. Still blue skies at the moment, but it's coming. We know it's coming. Yeah, yeah. So look, I said the other week that I wouldn't back the cuts before I'd seen them play well and I didn't know how long it was going to take. Took them one week and so I'm not afraid to back the cuts, but I find also with the cuts, you just really rarely get a bargain price for them, do you? You're always sort of paying a bit of a premium to be on them. And I think that the line here is it's not set too bad. So with that, it's a pretty big star, even though the crows do look a bit underman tonight. The crows, I haven't really been impressed with them. I thought they'd be a a wee kishpire side and then they're midfield against the dogs just look completely outclass and now they have some injuries creeping in. With this weather around Wally, I quite like the under total points. And this is where I think maybe the adjustment hasn't been big enough because I don't think the new rules are gonna help scoring in bad conditions. I think that when we get wet games, they're gonna go as low as what they have in the past. And so, well done to those who maybe jumped on a bit earlier and got the line up around 180 in this, but I think still with the line right now, 166.5, we've quite a bit of rain forecast. And also, crucially, the rain most of it is set to come after 5pm and it's gonna be difficult to see the ground drying out in a night game, also quite windy. And so, I wouldn't be afraid to be under that 165.5, which is where it is set right now, correct me from row. So I think that's a good play. I think at 41 points or so quarter, you just need one or two like slow patches or a bit of inaccuracy in the tougher conditions and this goes under. So I'm pretty happy to play there. Now, given the conditions we're looking at, they're gonna be a little bit tough. I have had a bit of a look at some players who perform well in wet weather in the past. And the cats, mate, they had two games that I could find last year, which were clearly wet. And Maxie Holmes, he had 40 in the wet against Gold Coast at Cardinia Park last year. And the other game, they now, the Jolong cats that fans out, notice they have their annual wet weather game against Brisbane. We've seen it the last few years. It's incredible, really. And he had 29 against the lines in that wet game at the Gauvin. So we had it too for Holmes in the wet last year. Gives me a fair bit of confidence that these conditions also can. And I do think, especially in these conditions, I think coaches are less likely to go and try and put a tag on. That's just all about getting first answer, the footy and getting some. Some territory. So happy with that. Now, it's a little bit difficult with the crows to work in, especially if they're in-s and outs. But just some having watched them the first few weeks, I think the guy that might do quite well in these conditions is Sam Berry. He's been getting a good run out of it in the middle. He's that nuggety kind of in-and-under type player. He's going to get plenty of opportunity, especially with Dawson not in there, to get his hands on the footy at ground level. And probably I think his lines are around 19. I think he should beat that. And so there's a couple of plays for the planners around disposals and the under 10 piece, mate. Great. Now, would you entertain a slightly bigger line like a 40-plus with John, where you have just paying the line? No, I'm probably not playing the line here. Well, I think the 26 or 27-point lines, it's fairly well said. I don't think that's any bargain. OK. Good to know. Good to know. So we think John will win, but happy enough just to play in those other spaces around the total under Max Holmes. Berry, 29 in the wet against Brisbane. Very good. 29 against Brisbane is huge. So might be a little louder there. I will say, they've got a history of this, John. Producing wet weather footballers, they have had plenty of really, really good ones over the years. Jimmy Bartow probably, the top of that tree where he's like the other way. He actually elevated. He didn't keep his game the other way. Anyway, mate, we moved from Thursday night to Friday. We got Collingwood and GWS, which I'm actually, this is a fun game for me. I'm looking forward to this. Pies are $1.50. John says big is $2.93. The line, 13.5 points. Pies are back at home at Marvel under the lead. Yeah. So this is, we talked about the fixture already. This is an odd one. We've got the giants off a six day break first the pies off a buy. So I mean, double think it's got to be a little advantage to the pies. And I think that the pies will play their best for when they're fresh, just the way that they're listed is and whatnot. So maybe a little advantage there. The pie, how do I look at the pies record at Marvel? And it doesn't look, I'm sure they would prefer to be at the J. Yeah. But there's nothing in there to tell me that it's, you know, they're really bad there or anything like that. The results are kind of mixed. JWS obviously, I've had a couple of bad recent games there. But there's raisins around that. And I don't think the venue is really going to be a big problem. Both teams play about three games a year here. So they should be equally familiar with the venue. It is a bit of a, calling would I know they like the big open spaces they like to use the footy and and stretch the ground out and have it more of an uncontested style game. So being a fast deck with a bit less space, I think it will help the giants be able to put pressure on them, which is, it's their goal as well. And I wall it, did you pick out the, the go to the WS coach on the weekend? These are felt for him. He just blew a gasket, didn't he? Maradjit. I tell you why, like that sort of his thing there, right? Like we know that in the docker, all of that, all of that, mate. I'll go over that though. I'll go over that. That's a good old school. Yeah, it is. It is. And the other thing is that I know that we didn't set on the weekend, but historically he's pays a responded to it. And they've spoken about it and like I told him that they've spoken about how they respond to it. It's kind of like I've always thought it's weird when anybody outside of a club judges how someone is like coaching or speaking to the players. It's not on these days. It's like, yeah, but if the players historically have responded to that narrow case with it, then we all should be fine with it. Anyway. Yeah. No, I thought it was funny. Okay. Yeah, it is. Yeah. I prefer that to, you know, Craig McCrae's sort of Dalai Lama style and crap that he carries on with. We won't get into that. A few areas. So look, the 13.5, I actually have these two teams fairly evenly pegged a little bit like what I said, a bet sinkier to GWS last week. Forced to bet, I'd be happy to play GWS getting a start. However, I'm not overly keen on it. That's kind of just a lane in that sort of sense. Now, one of our favourites here at the '44, Godwall, Nikki Deikos, he's actually looks like a not a bad proposition to get 30 here. Given that GWS have stopped employing the tag since about, you know, the last third of last season, you know, it's not a final either. So it makes it an even better proposition for Deikos. He's never had 30 in a final. Just so I'd throw that in that way. And he actually is, like, genuinely good value here for 30. Right. I think it is all 30. So I'm pretty happy to play that. If he's not getting a tag, he gets 30. That's pretty simple. The other two guys here I like actually are, we've seen the pies giving up quite high disposals to the backs this year. And it's like we can go through a few. Miller from Adelaide had 34, Sinclair 35, Wilkie 26, and Warhol 27. So there's some pretty big numbers. All those are above their average. We just saw Ash have 39 last week. And Whitfield also, he's very consistent with field above, you know, in that 29 plus sort of range. So happy to have a good look at that. The other little one that I've picked up on, I don't know. I love this guy. Well, he's one of my favourite players. It's Darsie Cameron. The Best and Ferris winner from last year at Colingwood, although some would say an unjust Best and Ferris to Darsie Cameron. But I don't think he felt too, you know, happy walking away with the Best and Ferris last year when he's coach said that he didn't deserve it. So, but I really like him. And GWS have been giving up a lot of disposals to Ruckman. And so despite his coach's hate for him, I'm happy to play him here. This is just the rage batting segment. There is some gold in there, but by the way, Darsie Cameron, I had the pleasure of meeting Darsie Cameron a couple years ago after the grand final, one of the one of the nicer folks I've met, lovely guy, genuinely great Ruckman. And any chance we get to get around him, very happy. What is it? And my, my man Nick Daykos. My Nick Daykos. That's my guy there, 30 plus. Asham Whitfield would, we go out of those like if he's having 30 on his, would you do a 30, 35, 40? One way you could play this way, it's a little bit of a risky strategy, but you could have, you could go like Whitfield 29, Ash 34 in a multi and then have, haven't the other way around of Ash 29, Whitfield 34. And that way if they both go big, you're probably looking at a pretty big player. And obviously you can do the 34, 34 as well. And you can kind of cover all bases and give them a chance of a big player. That would be the riskier or upside type strategy to go over that if you do fancy both of them. I think it may be not a bad player. Yeah, love it. All right, that's really good. All right. It's plenty of gold there for the punters. Now we move on to Saturday's games. St Kilda taking on Brisbane, the $2.63, Brisbane's $1.49. This is an interesting one because there's a double header at Marvel on Saturday, which was seen before it's got a bit of gather round vibes to it, which we like. The line's 13.5. All right. Yeah, for me, this feels like a bad week to get Brisbane. Just because they had a little break, there's zero and two. I mean, you just don't really foresee the line starting zero and three. Do you? And they get a bunch of good players back this week as well. And even when they played Sydney with these good players out, they were pretty commendable, weren't they? It made me think that once they get these plays back, they're going to be pretty formidable. So yeah, I think I like the lines here and I think what they're giving it to a gold start. For me, I'm happy with that. I think that they're definitely going to be fully motivated. And when the lines are motivated, that's been half the part of catching them in the last year, last year for sure. If you're able to work out when they're fully motivated, they're too good. And here I think they will be. And so that appears to me, Wally. Just a little quick one on the Saints. They have so far conceded 419 disposals to the Giants. 341 to the days which sounds low, but I think the demons are going to be a low disposal side and conceded 434 disposals to the pies. Most of this has been to Bax and Meds. And look, Locky Neal, he started the season great. He's had 39 and 28. He got 31 against the Saints last time they met. So I like him. Also, there's more responsibility on him at the moment to probably put the team on his shoulders a little bit with a couple of guys out. Another sort of case, Mizzorco, he made. He's had 31, 30 and 34 and he's last three against the Saints. And this line's up pretty well for him. Well, Ashcroft, he was blanketed against Sydney. And I think that he could return. And he had 35 last time they played the Saints also. On the flip side of that, we know Brisbane are about the hardest team to get a lot of 40 against. And there's a guy who's been going really well lately, Carl Wilkie. But he now gets a bit of a tougher matchup. And I don't think it lines up anywhere like as well for him this way. And he's lines quite elevated based on what he's doing recently. I don't mind playing him on the under 23.5. I love that, mate. So we'll look to the meds and then obviously they just all go cable user for their backline. We'll do a play Brisbane at the line. Wilkie owners like this plenty of different angles there. Whether you can back him individually, you could add a couple of them or you could put him all together. So that's really good. I love that. All right, next game on the Saturday is free mental Richmond. A dollar oh six for free. Richmond $16 as the highest we've seen in the market. 48 and a half point line is big. I don't know. A couple of that we've already had a couple of games that we thought would be absolute brown out. So like Gold Coast, West Coast in the opening round that on the in round one I should say that just haven't done that to you. What are you saying? Do you think free oh, that's a big line in that it's eight goals. I think the biggest thing to talk about in this game is the weather. They're talking about like cyclonic conditions. Well, they are 10 to 45 mil with like 100 kilometer hour. What is the sort of thing? So I actually think in those conditions 48.5. It's more like a 70 point line in good conditions. So I think that's probably, you know, I'm happy to play the Tigers at the plus getting a big start in horrible conditions. So these types of games I'm looking for players who are staying do really well in the wet before. And Luke Jackson is a wet weather machine. He's like a wrecking ball. He's just runs in straight lines. Lots of like kicks off the ground and whatnot. He did the game that I swore and do this in the wet and do really well was against the goal coach Sun as last year and he had 27. I think best on ground in that one. So I'm happy to play that basically. Resture and Sarong also there they both had 30 and that wet weather game too. And I see them both being sooner than the Tigers. Yeah, obviously Sarong was tagged last week. He's not going to find that this weekend. He should get a good go at it. From the Tigers point of view, like we backed this guy last week with success and it was Timmy Toronto. He's going to be around the 40th. I expect him to go pretty well in that wet sort of condition. So that's where I've got to on that one, mate. Yeah. And to give you an idea, we know the rain is going to be there because we spoke about no reinfacient lines. The line total under over on this 142 and a half, which is I don't want to be playing. I don't care what the conditions are. That is, you know, I'm only paying that for all. for it on 90. Like that is so low, but at the same time, just in case something happens with the weather, as good as the bomb are predicting stuff arrow, just in case, 142.5 it tells us that this, as you said, psychonic, we are going to be, I like watching putty like this by the way, I find it massively entertaining, massively entertaining. So I'm looking forward to that one. Where are we? We move on now Saturday night and we're back at Marvel is, well, the bombers are North Melbourne. So bombers are 275 North is $1.50. The lines 13 and a half, I personally like North here. I have seen, I saw the bombers in the flesh. I've watched the majority of North's two games as well. And I know that they sort of, they weren't amazing against West Coast and they should have gone on and won that. But the only thing I saw seen from Essin in there 40 was they put up a little bit of a fight against round one, MCG against the team that they hate, a club that they hate. And then since then, it's just been diabolical. So I go, I just don't see them being able to come out and get within two goals in North Melbourne. I hear your thoughts. It's a real worry isn't it? What's going on at Bombayland? So for all my bomber mates out there, look, I hope that they can show something. Even if they don't win, just show something because I'm a carpenter fan and my team have been pathetic at times, but you can live with them when they have a crack. And I think the problem that they had last week was their pressure rating was apparently one of the lowest recorders. I don't know, Wally, I think that there's obviously some things going wrong behind the scenes with the bombers. They're not like a happy camp. And they just have to be opposed until they give us a reason to stop opposing them in my opinion. And so that's what we'll be doing here. I'm happy to play North giving a two goal start. I've actually liked what I've seen from North even in their loss to West Coast because West Coast played really well. And I think sometimes on the road, you know, against an up and about side, these things can happen. And West Coast, as I said earlier, probably not going to be as bad as what people have thought. So happy to play North here, mate. Now one guy that I'm going to probably want to have a look at here is Big Christian Cherry who is one of my favorite players. Talk about, you know, a bloco has a crack. There's really no better in terms of that contested style. We saw him last week have 23 contested possessions. Seven clearances, nine tackles. And that's just what you want from your big strong rockman. And I think they all play a bit taller with him. He's a bit of a machine, isn't he? And you wouldn't want to be on the other end of a big tackle from Christian Cherry. So he gets a weak opponent here, Blackistan. And we saw that Jordan, sweet, who's no good himself. He had the better of Blackistan. So yeah, so that's where I've got to with that. Further to that, we saw butters. One of my favorite players, he had 36 on the weekend. And you got to think that who is North's version of butters and it's Harris Sheasel who nobody knows how to find the footies as well as this bloke. And so I'm pretty happy to back him to have 30 plus PMO as well. So the other thing, Wally with this, the line, the total points line is set at 186.5. And I know you could look at this two ways and go, well, the bombers have conceded cricket scores so far in their two games. And I think both games have made up around that 200 or more points. North have had one go under one go over but both games look fairly high scoring. But you listen to both teams and Clarkson, he's talked a lot about defense this year. Look, I don't think North are going to have a big problem defending the bombers. And then all I've heard all week from the bombers is the problems in the defense. So you could see something very negative in this game, given the amount of pressure that the coaches are under. And so look, the under 186.5, it could be, it could be a play that the rest to it is that they're probably the assing then get opened up again. But I think just hearing these little things that come out of both camps with the line at 186.5 doesn't take a lot for that to go under. With that, how would you play that with the smallish bed, just to a speculative bed? Or is that one of the ones where we go, all right, I'm just going to have a really small bed on a even lower line and get like the four or five dollars for say 160 points in case it is really greg locked. What would you do here? I think that is that's probably not the the worst one. There's no way I'd be having a big stake on this, but just because you look at what the teams have conceded so far and it is this bed is kind of counter intuitive based on what the teams have been doing. It's more of an intuitive bed based on what moves you can kind of for say the team's making. And so it's a little bit of a speculative one. Definitely not something to go to town on, but it's something that has come across my mind. With Christian Cherry, would you consider I would say that it's supposed to be given the tackling that the hit out the way he gets around the ball? Would you consider with this like a fantasy if you can get a fantasy line or something like that as well? Do you reckon that that's a good play? I look I don't follow the fantasy stuff so much well. There's probably other people who would have better idea about that than they say it does make sense so it doesn't because you get really well rewarded for tackles of the late. Yeah, so yeah, it's maybe one might go about it. So and the reason I say that is I say there's super coach in this fantasy and I think super coaches here from fantasy is like very I've got fantasy like clear it's you get a point for this tackles I think of four hit outs of one. So it's really easy. Anyway, I just got to throw that into the mix. Next game we move on to Sunday and it's Port Adirade West Coast. Now Port obviously returned to the winners list, but what did they beat? We've just spoken about there. There are $1.27. West Coast coming off on win a four dollars 30 and the line in this one is 25 and a half. So I'm really keen to sort of see where you're aiming here. I mean, you've got to be a brave man to tip West Coast away from home, don't you? But it's hard not to because I had Port, well, they lose Rosie and Bergman now and you look at the two teams on paper, they're not really, they're like, don't see a hell of a lot between them and what I saw from West Coast last week. I don't take anything from what I got from Port. I mean, Port did what they had to do, but literally the pressure that Essinan failed to bring made Port look so much better than what they are. The Port are no good, Wally. They're not going to be, they're going to be bottom six some talent here. So this is like a bottom six class that you're getting a 25 points start on one. I mean, it was as high as I think 28, 29 and obviously would rather be there, but it's still 25. I'm happy to play. I wouldn't even be surprised if West Coast caused an upset, I could see that happening as strange as it sounds, talking about a side and tipping a side that's won what two games now in 12 months, they are on the up and they do have like having guys like Allie at Yohan, not available, which he wasn't available to them all year last year. I heard Adam Simpson and he's new to the media. I think he's fantastic to listen to. He does a segment once a week. I don't know what it's called, but definitely encourage people to tune into that because he's insights are fantastic. And he referred to Allie at Yoh as like the bottom palae of the West Coast Eagles basically. How it's not about how he said he's obviously not as good a player as Bond, but everybody walks a bit taller with Allie around and he does do things that others can't do. He is a superb player. So I think you flip that around and the other team's losing their captain of potential best players well in Rosie. So look, that's where I've got to while I do like West Coast getting the big start. Love that, mate. Love that. Or I'm on the round of 40 wraps up with this is really interesting and it's basically a picking game in the market at the moment or just outside of Calton Melbourne. Calton's two bucks Melbourne's $1.88. The line's one and a half. So it's it is a real coin flip here. And then this one is a Calton home game, but at the MCJ. So it's it's where we're just bouncing around a little bit here with Marvin and the J and that, but this is very and I know look, we're still a few days away from this. So I'm not asking for all the detail here. Can the back, can the bag just go to one here, Harrah? I'm not too sure, why I'm not too sure I think that the games probably probably priced correctly. - Yep. - Big guessing if I, to try and pick a winner out of this one, I've enjoyed what I've seen from the day so far. I haven't enjoyed what I've seen from the blue so far. Just going on I, just going on the I test, I'd probably say the days, but I'm actually going to this one, Wally, I've taken a family along. - Probably. - It'll be their first game of 40 that I've been to. So I reckon mum goes for the days as well. So it's probably, there's probably a lot on the line here, mate, 'cause whoever wins could be like the kids end up burrowing for that day. So I'll be hoping, although they say they burrowed for captain at the moment. - We'll see what happens. - I know mum will be hoping a bit of an influence on them if the days wins. But getting back to what I like in this game, there's some strong things going on at Demon Land in terms of trends, Wally. And the first one is the high scoring. And we've seen, we've seen their games, and we've heard what they want to do. And it's all about fast footy and attractive footy and all this sort of stuff. And I really like the way they go and about it. And we saw it on the weekend. It made up at 188 points, Wally, but it was, it was what, 27 goals, 26. And normally you're going to get some, you know, a little bit of a gap between goals and points. And that should have probably made up more around 200. And so I'm, look, the line was 174.4 when I did this preview, but now I think it's 178.5. I'm still happy to play that, Wally. I'm happy to play the overs here. I'm going to keep going with backing the overs in Melbourne games because I think it's going to keep paying for us. And the line's not superbly high, like what we've seen these big one-90 tight lines. They're every high one 80s. So happy to have a play there. The other thing that we've seen in the couple of Melbourne games that we've seen so far is they've conceded big numbers on the disposal throw. And it was like 417 against Frio. I think the Saints had 434 or something enormous as well. So I'll just find out for you. 411. So we're getting big numbers in Melbourne games to the opposition. And look, there's a few here, Wally, which are probably obvious. Now we know Melbourne are running this tag with Tholstrup. Yeah. Take your pick. I think he'd be most-- if I was the D's coach, it would probably be Sam Walsh. I can't see who else you'd look to tag in that blue side. And look, they might not run the tag in this game. They might not see a player. Like there's no nose who he tagged against St. Kielder. And then on the way, Kenny did a job on Caleb Sarong. So maybe you avoid Walsh and you look outside him. And so when you do that, that the obvious guy here is Jagger, isn't it? I mean, he's a bit of a ball magnet as it is. And then he gets a good matchup on top of that. I'll be pretty happy to play. Yeah, Jagger. Well, let me just juggle. Yeah, 28.5. Yeah, look, he's already got 27 against his 20s. That's a pretty tough matchup. 32 against Richmond in probably a similar sort of matchup. So I'd be happy to play Jagger. And then there's a couple of other areas of the ground that they've been conceding really high. And it says half forwards. They just seem to be getting a lot of space. And so the guys in that kind of role for Carlton might be like, you're a larger Holland. And he's lines 17.5. Well, actually 16.5, all the correct myself there. So he'd look, he's the last four games. He's gone 17, 29, and 4. And then you're getting a line of 16.5 with a good matchup, a larger Holland. He's not a bad player either. Yeah. Happy to have a look there. And then it might be like a Benny Ainsworth. He only had eight last week, but you only need him to get 4. And so I'll be happy to play these guys based more on what their matchup looks like rather than anything around this sort of historic record. So there's a couple of couple for the punters there, Wally. Would you look at Will Haywood as well for consideration? It's just he's records not great when it comes to getting high numbers. OK. Yeah, one of his best games against Richmond, but he's feeling that he really ever gets more than I think six days or so. OK. All right. And obviously he's in a new-- I don't know if he's-- I think his role is going to be pretty similar at Carlton. I was at the swanies, but he's not a big disposal getter. Yep. OK. Very, very good. All right, man. That is our round of 40. There's only one thing they have to do as we do each week. The best bet of the round. How are we landing? Now, we want to make sure we get the line right for this one, Wally. Let's make sure we're not just making sure everyone can get what we can get right now. And just looking at it, I think 177.5 is pretty widely available right now on the overtotal points for the Blues versus demons. Mate, I'm going to have it on that game. So I've got something to cheer with the family at the game. And would you say just for the punters, if they're getting at a little bit late, you'd be happy to take up to sort of the 180 mark on that as an over? Look, I think so. We'd be pretty unlucky to see it fall in that range, again, not one point away from our line. But I'm looking now on Bettsniper and 177. Is it readily available? Yeah, it's available. Let's put it at 178 to make sure everybody gets on. So 178.4. Perfect. How are you being great as always, mate? That'll wrap us up for another round of by football. I'm going to start calling it. I look forward to next week when we're back with Easter Weekend, which will be huge. We've got some really good games in there, some genuine and good footy. Mate, I'll see you next week. All the best punters. Imagine what you can be buying instead for free and confidential support, call the number on the screen or visit the website.