2026 AFC South preview

Welcome to the athletic football show brought to you by the US Bank smartly visa signature card. I am Robert maize today. It is the AFC South preview. Let's waste no time some juicy conversations about all these teams to get to me Derek and Dave breaking down the AFC South right now. It's the AFC South on the athletic football show today. A lot to chew on with these teams few teams that we expect I think to make the playoffs one team that desperately needs to make the playoffs and then a fourth team that I'm not exactly sure what to do with. I mean, I feel like we talked a little bit before the show. I feel like we know what to do with them and we'll get there. I go through my notes in order of how we're going to talk about them so I did the Titans last before I came into the studio and it left me unsettled left. Yeah, I agree. It just not even not necessarily in a bad way. Not necessarily in a bad way. I just agree with you. I have no idea what to do with it. I do want to say this they're a weird team and we'll get to them. Do you think part of it is the fatigue of this being the sixth division preview that we've done where when you get to a team that's a little bit lower down the wrong side. It's a little bit harder. Yeah, it's easy to get up with the teams when you have a lot of juice with them. One that's a little bit confounding. I think it's harder to get into it. Like the giants in the NFC East. That was what like our second division preview. It's like, okay, we're a little bit earlier in this. You got a little bit more energy by the time you get to a team like that in the sixth one. It's like, okay, this we're a little bit lagging. Not wrong. Not not wrong whatsoever. Let's dig into the team projected to be at the top of this division. As always, we were going in order of divisional odds with these. Start with the Houston Texans are preview for the 2026 Houston Texans. They're off season and 60 seconds. Side Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith and for agency traded for David Montgomery side read blanket chip and Logan Hall brought back at Ingram. Also signed should have been cloudy during training camp, which I don't have in here because it happened late lost him settle Christian Kirk Derrick Barnett in free agency. He's still on the roster, but they also lost Jayden Higgins for the year to a 20 CL in the draft. Keelan Rutledge in the first round, Kayden McDonald in the second round. Marlon Klein also in the second round, I believe. I think he might have been third. It doesn't really matter. He was second. You're top 100. You're those are the top three picks. Yeah. With each of these teams, we're going to dig into what we are most excited about as it relates to that team this season. Derrick, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited about with these Houston Texans? I think the best defense in the NFL might be better. Like they are bringing back almost every starter from last year and the only real change they made is bringing in read blanket ship who is better than anybody who was playing that safety spot for them last year. And I do think it's a really good fit to fix some of the potential issues they have. Like there's a very small thing, but sometimes you watch them. It's like when they're in weak rotation, you can run straight at the safety. And I don't think if you have read blanket ship on the field, you can do that as much. And so you add him. Even some of the depth pieces they shuffled around like bringing Clownie for Barnett, I think is like. Honestly, at worst like a neutral move like I think Clownie could even be better than you as much better as a pastor after on a raid basis last year than Derrick Barnett was and the hope is the physicality is relatively the same in a run game. That's what he did for a large part of his career. He's come a little bit more of a DPR guy because he's a little bit later into his career, but I think off the bench. He's going to give that to them. And then they bring in Kaden McDonald for Tim Settle and Tim Settle played fine for them last year, but I think McDonald's. If things turn out well, especially towards the end of the year, you expect that to be a little bit more explosive for them. I'd be a pedantic jerk. Let's go for it. We're just we're saying that the Texans were the best defense in the league last year. I am. Okay. If I totally get everyone wanting. There were two answers. One of them is obviously the one that won the Super Bowl. There's two answers and one won the Super Bowl. It depends on what stat you look at. Yeah. They were number one in EPA. We wanted to be at the Seattle was one in DVO. There's not a wrong answer, but I don't know. I felt like our aggrieved Seattle fans. I had to speak up. They're not watching this. Yeah. The only the only reason they are watching this is to find reason to agree is they hear me say that the goblin in my heart could not pick any other defense. I'm sure there is no wrong answer. But my note says the only defense that was in the same zip code as Seattle might be better than it was last year. And Seattle has more turn over than exactly. Yeah. They guys that were highly players. They're trying to replace and they they certainly could. But I do think the Texans personnel has been upgraded compared to Seattle's, which I think is a best and neutral move. So I'm I'm with you on that. I think the reblinca chip part of it. And then the K. McDonald part, even if Tim Settle was a fine player for them last year, Kaden Donald's ceiling as a player is as high. I think higher, honestly, than any interior player they have ever had during the Domingo Ryan Zara. Who else would have been these probably true, especially as like a three down player. Yeah. Or like a can do everything. Play like Sheldon Rankins can get into the backfield. But if you get four hands on him, he's you can move him a little bit. And the idea is that McDonald can get into the backfield. He can hold up against the double teams. And he has a little bit of juice as the past pressure. This isn't what I'm looking for in the first month of the season. But I just want to know how quickly that materializes interior defensive line is notorious for being a steep learning curve, even for the most exciting prospects. I mean, I was just listening back to our AFC North preview. And we were talking about Mason Graham and how you're still hoping for more. That was a guy drafted five overall. And this is one of if not the most talented defenses in the NFL still have Rankins Tommy Togi. I was a really surprisingly good player for Houston last year. I hope Kaden McDonald kicks ass right from the get go. But on such a good defense. I want to know what that looks like. It's the exact same conversation we're having about Mason Graham. That's the same defensive style. It's the same defensive system. And I think it's the same sort of ramp up period and talking to people there. That's the thought process is that it might not happen right away. You see the flashes enough that when it does start to click into place, which it has for other players in this defense. I've used this example many times. But Matt Burke was in Philly when they signed up on hardgrave and free agency. And he came from a very different defensive system in Pittsburgh. And it took him a while to learn how to play that way. Go look at his numbers in the back half of that first season compared to the first half of his first season in Philly almost all of his sacks all of his quarterback hits came in the back half of the year. And so they are aware of the fact that it is going to be a ramp, include and require a ramp up period for Kaden McDonald. The hope is that when it does click into place, you see the impact to be exponential after that. And it's I think that's a good thing to bring up because he was playing relatively deep into week three of the preseason because they're trying to get him those reps one like live reps. None of their other major players were really playing at that stage. And again, I don't think that's because he's looked bad. But it's like you're saying it's a different style of defense. If you're going to play that attack react sort of defense, you need the reps to learn how to be able to do that stuff. Happy birthday to Will Anderson, by the way, 23. This is being released on his 25th birthday. He was third in the league in pressures and led the league in past rush win rate, he just turned 25. He's one of those guys, it reminds me a little bit of guys like Julio Jones, where you are famous from essentially the time you step on to a college campus because of what sort of prospect and player you were as a freshman, you're hyped up to an unimaginable level. You're one of those camp miss guys that we hear about for years and years and years. And then you come into the league and he's better. Yep. He's better than most people thought he would be because I feel like some people believe that he had sort of a limited ceiling because of what he would eventually be as a past rusher, he is a better player than I think a good chunk of the draft community thought he was going to be in the NFL. That comes after like one of the most hyped up college careers we have seen in the last decade. I remember taking issue with some of that that the limited ceiling stuff and thinking like will Anderson's a better player than some people think he is, but I did not see this. I did not see him being on the short list of best defenders in football in in his age 25 season. I mean, even even if I was bullish on him that it's just it's an insane ceiling. What you're excited about is also the defense as we make that the Texas might be the most straightforward team. We're going to preview like I completely. Which is exactly how they play defense. So it's very fitting. But yes, I mean, everything Derek said upgrading the personnel on what was already one of the two best defenses in the league. I just can't wait to watch and play. I also excited about watching the defense if you can imagine that it is the most unhinged defense and professional football. We have a lot of guys that play like they've lost their minds and I really enjoy that about them. A couple numbers associated with the Houston Texans defense from last season on early downs. So the time when it with theoretically would be most difficult to defend the past because they can also run. Right. I mean, these are the down where you have two paths you can take. It is harder to be in true past defense looks in the on those snaps on early downs last season. The Texans allowed negative 0.25 EPA per dropback and a 37% success rate. That is essentially an average cam ward dropback from last year. That's insane. So on early downs every team in the NFL was the Titans against the Texans last year. That's just on. And the thing is again, I think what is so beautiful about it. They play two coverage is man. They play quarters and cover three. I will say this. It is more varied on third down than you might think on later in the down third down. They play a little bit more cover six. It's more of a roll of next thing. And I will say one of the things as we're trying to figure out how. And this is actually one of the things I wanted to talk about within that limited framework. They do such a great job. And I think we don't give the coach. staff a lot of credit with this team because it is so quote unquote simple. It reminds me a little bit of some of the conversations that we've had about the Bengals offense over the last few years. When I think some of the tinker and they've done is actually gone underappreciated because they want to exist in a somewhat smaller box than some of these showy your teams. But I really appreciate what the Texan staff does in that limited space. They do tinker with stuff every single year that makes it a little bit harder for you to get a beat on them. From 23 to 24, they started playing a ton more man coverage because they realized the corners could do that. I think the man coverage rates went up from like 22 23 to like plus 30 on third down and they were a fantastic man coverage team. There is more role in Texan coverage is this year, even something small. I won't say the player because it's feel like it's betraying a conversation. But there was a player that they had in a certain type of coverage that they were like, have we play it the way that it's taught. He's going to be a little bit more vulnerable than we want. But we want to keep him on the field in these situations. And they just they changed how he plays one specific technique in order to make sure they could live in that coverage because it works for the other 10 players and it's just something they kind of stumbled into last year. Stuff like that goes underappreciated. And I think this year we're going to see some more of that. The two things I'd be curious about. They played almost no dime defense last year, almost none. Do we see a little bit more of that this year because you can move Jaylen Smith outside and potentially move Camarri last year to the nickel while you put Jaylen Petri at dime linebacker just a little bit more personal diversity than we've ever seen from them before. And then do we see them play a few more five down fronts then we've really ever seen them doing the past because this team is as static as it gets when it comes to front multiplicity because they can be and it's another area where they know teams are only going to try to run like a few small sub sex of runs against them because the fronts that they play. So they've gotten really really good at defending them. But I think those are the two areas where I'm curious. Do we see some small tweaks in order to keep making sure that they stay a half step ahead of people? Do you think the five-man front stuff is some more of like true odd front where it's three deep interior defensive line on the field? No, I think it's a linebacker walking down. I think it's toe to toe walking down. That makes sense to me. Walking down and then walking back just kind of giving a little bit of indecision about what defense what offences are going to see. That'd be my assumption. That's something that can sound good in August and then you just. Those are the two things like if they want to experiment, do we see those being the areas of experimentation? Let's get to what we're watching over the first month of the season. Just a curiosity, something you feel like is sort of an unanswered question that you want a little bit more information on over the first few weeks of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off? What do you watch in the first month of the season with these Houston Texans? We all understand what's new and exciting about the offensive line. It has to go into practice now. And again, it's incredibly straightforward because it was one of the biggest problems with last year's team and it's something they spent a lot of resources on this year. Keelan Rutledge officially going to play left guard to start. Did they say that today? It's the word coming from Nick Casario. Did you see what else Nick Casario said? It depends. Maybe he said we think Keelan Rutledge is our best offensive line. Yes, I did see that. Does that make you feel better or worse? I was asking Robert about this before the show better. Okay, because you use that you spent a big pick on him. And that was the hope is that he was going to be that guy that kind of changed the culture of your offensive line. The depth chart we have on the YouTube video that people are watching has why I tell her at left guard because as of this morning, they had not announced what the starting offensive line was going to be when we made that graphic. But it does seem like it might be trending like you said, Dave, where Roach is going to play left guard and then that means Evan Brown is going to play center. In that iteration, why I think it's important that Keelan Rutledge is their best player. They didn't do anything. Keelan Rutledge is the difference or the upgrade from Jake Andrews to Evan Brown is the only other change that you've made if Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller aren't going to be a part of your starting five. So in that universe, Keelan Rutledge better be your best offensive line, man. It is funny and a perfect example of how much time we have to dissect all this shit during a nine month off season. Because yeah, right now Braden Smith is starting the season on IR and Wyatt Teller is probably your swing interior guy for the time being. I don't think Braden Smith is going to start even a few of himself. The you said you said that like halfway through camp that Trent Brown seemed like he had a stranglehold on that job. So probably not what we anticipated throughout a lot of the off season, just because of the money that was spent on the two veterans, but Rutledge is there. Evan Brown is a name to get familiar with. He was in Arizona for the last two years, not playing center. By the way, he played center for the 2023 Seahawks. Up and down, like I think can be serviceable. He's been a swing interior player for the most part over the last few years. I'm, this is going to be famous last words because this is their biggest problem. But I'm talking myself into thinking that this offensive line can be good, good running the football. Like they have, I think like, but Ed Ingram, Keelan Rutledge, being what you hope he is, I think this is, this is what you want. I don't know how good it is in past protection, but I think this can be like a physical offensive line that can move people. That's their biggest issue. And so if that is the case, if that, if the offense can be better, and its ability is to serve itself on the ground, I think that goes a long way. We've talked about this. When Seahawks was on the field last year, this team was 12th in e-paper drop-back. Like that's not the problem. The problem is they have not been able to run the ball. And I think the question becomes, your two-aversary Rutledge, is that enough in terms of like a physicality boost for you to feel better? And I think the other part of this, we're talking a lot about the talent upgrade. And I do think the talent upgrade matters. Cottonuity and stability is the thing that was most important. They were at a point last year where there were so many moving parts and it all felt so unsettled that every time they would run something where they had to pull somebody, it was a f*** disaster. And so it just became a situation where I was like, let's run duo again. Let's run it again. Let's run it again because you can't screw that up. And so I think the goal is the talent upgrade makes you more dynamic up front. But now the hope is if everything feels a little bit more settled down and you know who the five are, they get the next couple of weeks to work together. Now you can actually run the variety and the menu of run plays that you actually would like to. And I think in all of this, and I actually do, I joke about it, but I do like, I really like to Keylen Rutledge coming out of the draft. If he is the player that they think he is and he really is their best offensive lineman, I do think that that might be enough to be a difference maker in the run game because he can't move people, but he also is really good climbing to the second level. Like he's a really good athlete. Always goes to the right spot. I think two, we can include in this the tight end additions. That's huge. Like every year, there's one or two teams that it's like, oh, look at how much six offensive lineman they're running. Does that mean something? And it's like, it means they don't have another tight end that they like we can cut down on the Blake Fisher snaps this year. That'd be pretty fun. So just to put that in perspective, the Texans used 198 snaps of jumbo last year, which was the second most in the NFL. They used a hundred multi tight on snaps all season 12 and 13 personnel snaps combined. They played a hundred of them last year. 10% that was not the idea. That's not who they want to be. It's crazy, which we know what it looked like. It wasn't good, but it's just crazy that they lived that way at all. Like when I saw it was as low as 10% across 12 and 13, you still see that in the NFL? No, especially now. Yeah. As more teams are trying to do this. I mean, now they're in a spot where I actually didn't look at the 53 and see how many tight ends they kept. They they kept for. So they kept for Breven Jordan is the one that didn't make the initial 53. I think they're going to try to sign him back. But Breven Jordan, that was almost entirely as a pass-catching option. I mean, what he can do is a receiver. The four that they kept outside of Dalton show. It's the other three. I think a big selling point is what they're going to be able to give you in run blocking. And they're all of different roles. Like if you watch the touchdown that Woody Mark scored in the preseason game against the Raiders, you see it. And again, it's the Raiders backup. So don't have to read too much into it. But you watch Foster Merot on that play kicks out the defense event by himself. And then they use Kate Sovere as a fullback. Both things that before Kate and even when Kate Sovere played last year, he had to be an inline tight end because they didn't have any other ones. And so the variety and what those guys can potentially give you just in a blocking capacity is just so much different than it was a year ago, so much different. I'm nervous about how hopeful I am that this could actually look pretty entertaining. And worth mentioning David Montgomery as well. Like that's one of the first things they did down correct this was trade for him very early in the off season. And I think that there's stuff you can hang on to with the offensive construction with just a normal level of offensive line play because that was the other part last year. We talked about this when we were doing the Strauss segment in the lingering question show. They were trying to do things last year just to get by offensively. The line play was so bad, especially early year, they're trying all the seven man pro stuff and the pressure rate even on plays like that was heinous. And so just being in a place where you can play normal football, where you're getting the ball out quickly, just things they want to do. This team last year, there are a lot of things you can attach yourself to. They were eighth and design rollouts 0.33 EPA per dropback 57% success rate on those plays. Like getting to a place where you can just use normal types of play action, normal passing game, not having to sit there and be worried about can we block this up? Can we block this up with every single thing you try to do? I think just getting to a normal place with this offensive line and both the run game and when you're throwing the ball is huge. And the other the last that I want to throw out talking about two to three tight ends in the field, there were 30th in total dropbacks and an EPA per dropback with two to three tight ends in the field last year. They were just terrible when they did it and they barely did it. And so that should be a very different version of what this offense looks like compared to what it looked like a year ago. What is keeping you up at night, Derek, about the 2026 Houston Texans? I mean, kind of the other side of the coin of what we're talking about, like I the offense still does have a floor that scares me a little bit. And I think if you really ask me like true serum, do I believe the floor is higher and then I have some amount of optimism? Yes. But until I see it, that floor and what it looked like at some points last year is still there. And I don't think you mean in the playoffs? In the playoffs. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. I don't think over the course of the regular season, it necessarily kills this team from being that much worse. No, but this is a team that is like, you're playing for football when it matters. Like you are supposed to be a January football team. And I do still worry that this offense has a floor that once we get there, maybe the offensive line is beat up again, or just doesn't take the step that we want them to. Maybe the ideas that we have for this tight end room, it just doesn't actually solidify into anything that they want in the run game. Maybe David Montgomery, like after years of being a guy who's taken a bunch of carriers, just doesn't have the same pop that he's had in years prior. And now you don't have Jayden Higgins in the past game. And he was, I think primed for a pretty big year next to Nico call losing Jayden. Higgins is huge. He mungered. It's huge. You even after trading for Keisha and Booty, you just don't have that type of skill set within the offense. Now I really do think that he was going to have an awesome season. And he was, is just such a cool compliment to what you have in Nico Collins. And Keisha and Booty is just a very different sort of player than Jayden Higgins is. And so I just, I'm still just a little bit worried that if they run into one or two meat grinder teams in the playoffs, that they still just don't have it. If the offense isn't, I'm not even going to say substantially better, but if the offense isn't consistently, at least a little bit better, you know exactly what the ceiling is for this team. And it's like division or round of the playoffs, probably. I just that like even, even with this defense being what it is, you're going to, you're going to run into a team that will get the better review or will force CJ Stroud into another situation like he was in January, or will be able to score 23 points on this defense, which would be enough in this scenario. I just, you're, you're not running that gauntlet without the offense being better. Even if this is like a 10 win team with a middling offense. I don't want to walk into the playoffs thinking for the second year in a row. The defense has to be the one that gets him over the top. Like the defense will be what carries them. But it, I don't want it to be the only thing that is getting extremely hard to do that. We, even in the world where the last two teams that won the Super Bowl have been driven more by the defense than the offense. Philly had both of the last two teams who won the Super Bowl finished number one and defensive DBO way both. You got to get that game though, but, but you, you have to have multiple games. And even if you look at what those teams were on offense, either for the entire season or for stretches. We talked about this with the Eagles. They were able to tap into a version of that offense that very, very few teams can reach because of how dominant the offense of wine was and because of what Sequan was. And they quietly have two of the best, like the best receiving tandem in the NFL outside of Cincinnati during that season. You look at Seattle last year. The sea ox were third in passing success rate over the course of the season and third in explosive pass rate. Those are two very good pillars of what you want your offense to be. Like, even if a defense first team has won the Super Bowl, you still need to clear a certain bar and a pretty high bar offensively in order to get yourself all the way there. And even if the Texans offense is considerably improved, it remains to be seen whether they can clear that sort of bar. I got to have some degree of confidence that the offense can score 30 plus points on their day. You're probably going to need to do it at least once. That they have a calling card like because the Eagles and the Seahawks, even if they had some down games, whatever, they had calling cards, like the the Seahawks to generate explosives, either with Ken Walker and the playoffs or obviously JSN at any time, Eagles, we know how many talented players they have. Niko Collins to CJ Stroud down the field, I think is great. And I think it's pretty explosive. I don't think it's to the same level that those Super Bowl teams have been not yet anyway. I don't think we really have to beat around the bush with this. The quarterback needs to be really, really good for them to win the Super Bowl. Yeah. They need to be a good passing offense, like a bump bump bump bump bump bump up against the top 10 sort of passing offense, I think, for them to win the Super Bowl because most teams need to be that. And I think the question's going to come down to outside of the offensive line, improving just the run blocking, proving overall, do we feel like the quarterback has that sort of gear to him as we get deeper into the season? That's that's going to be it. It's pretty simple, honestly. Mm-hmm. I think this is the easiest team to diagnose in the NFL this year. Mine is right there with you guys. I got just what's keeping me up and eyes does the offense get there. The Jaden Higgins thing is huge. The offensive line is still a theory. I think if you're trying to build the optimistic case for the quarterback, beyond this being an outmaned group, personnel wise on offense last year, it's a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive system. And I think what's interesting about the pairing with Nick Kayleigh and CJ Stroud, Kayleigh been a tight ends coach for a good chunk of his career, but he was the passing game coordinator in LA. I think this is true, but I'm almost certain it is. The two quarterbacks that Nick Kayleigh had been on offensive staffs with before he got to Houston were Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. It's a lot of mental look you and just age and experience. And I think when you go from that and quarterbacks that had no exactly who they are as players, no exactly what they want have been in the league for a decade plus. It's just different than working with a guy who how old is CJ Stroud? I mean like 25. Yeah. CJ Stroud is last year was his third year in the NFL. Last year was CJ Stroud's age 24 season. And I just think that's that's a process. And I think that you have to learn how to get players to respond to you. And I think that a year of this group working together of understanding what that looks like him finding his voice in terms of what how to find command and ownership of the offensive, all of those things I think have a chance to be much better this year than they were last year. And I think that's to me how you start building the optimistic case for how things are going to look drastically different in year two than they looked in the past last season. I'm not overly worried about CJ if though if the ecosystem around him is right, which that is it's at least a step of faith. I don't know like how optimistic are you about the offensive line? Maybe it's a leap, but there is an element of believing that this is going to be better. But if it is, I'm really not worried about CJ Stroud. And we've just the highs that we have seen from him at points. Even if the last thing that we've seen from him was the worst that we've ever seen in play, we're really good. Again, I think he played really well against the chiefs the last time he played them in the playoffs. Even this past regular season, the game he played against some the numbers don't look great, but it was like a haymakers versus haymakers fight and he was willing to throw them. And I thought that that was incredible. And so, and the other thing that I've said this before like, we need to remember that Sam Darnold played the like the two worst games. Yeah. You could possibly play before he went to the Seahawks and then he goes to them and wins the Super Bowl. And so I just don't think that the one stretched like that necessarily defines a quarter back, especially in CJ's case where again, it was his age 24 season going back to the theme of the segment. What's keeping you up at night, though, is that the offensive line could be marginally better or not better at all. And we're just back in the same spot where this could just easily be the 20th best offense in the league and all the defensive stuff is for not. That's not a hard thing to imagine. It's a very easy thing to imagine. And that's what would be keeping me up at night if I were a Texans fan. What does success look like? We're going to do this for every team for the 2026 Houston Texans, Dave. The offense and CJ play well enough to A hold up there into the bargain. Be big picture just because we haven't even mentioned it. If CJ has a good year, you quell the questions and uncertainty about his contract situation. I think it would go a long way toward reaffirming that the Texans want him to be their guy for the long term. And if they do that, if CJ stray out on the offense or are good, the rest of this will take care of itself. This will be a 10 plus maybe a 12 plus win team. If the offense is good, then the Texans could get to the AFC championship game or beyond. Then I think that's a successful season. I said, AFC championship game. It's exactly what I said. I think like the defense, we obviously know it's going to be there. And kind of like Dave is alluding to. But for the offense, what that's exactly that's why it has to be now. Like I don't think the offense looking one step better and then you still get knocked out in the divisional. I think like for as good as this defense is and for as good as like some of them are young players, but there are so a lot of other expensive guys that they're paying and those young players will become expensive. Like the Neil Hawk is taking a little bit 2015. Yes. And hopefully he can keep doing this for a long time, but you can't take that for granted. And they really rely on those guys. And I do think this thing is thin. Like if you do remove one of those players, even if clowning gives you decent depth, this defense feels very different without Danielle Hunter will Anderson 100% the entire thing when you've built it through this type of defense because even if it's been a little bit more stable over the last couple of years, there is more inherent volatility to defense. It's just more fragile. It's the windows are just a little bit thinner. And so you have to strike while the iron is hot, you have to make the most of these opportunities. And so saying to have to get to the AFC championship game for it to be successful probably seems like a high bar. But when you have this type of team, that's just the case. You have to do it now. And again, I'm willing to say that for a lot of AFC teams because the AFC is pretty like, it's kind of wide open. If you think you have a unit this good, you should be getting there. We don't have to relitigate the past, but if CJ had just been meh, they might have done it last year. Got into the Super Bowl. Yeah. I don't have to worry about it beyond that. But yeah, I mean, the margins are the margins are there. You could do it. And with the defense like this, I think you have to do it. All right, before we get to the Jacksonville Jaguars, let's take our first quick break. Are you the kind of sports fan that wants to dig into the story behind the stats? Join the athletic live on YouTube to cover all all the sports stories you can't stop talking about. On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside the athletics most tapped in reporters, and you can become part of the show in the interactive chat. The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube. (upbeat music) Speaking of the wide open AFC, let's get to the Jacksonville Jaguars, our preview for the 2026 Jaguars. They're off season in 60 seconds. Traided Mason Smith for Rookoro, signed Chris Rodriguez, brought back Montero Brown, just traded for Daniel Fahlele, lost Devon Lloyd, Travis Hanna, and Greg Newsom in free agency in the draft. Nate Borkerture in the second round, Emmanuel Pregnant and Albert Regis in the third round. Dave, what are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars? In my adult life, I can't remember the Jaguars having competency and continuity at the two most important jobs in the building, the way these Jaguars do. Head coach. You didn't believe in the Doug Morone play Bordel's pairing. I should have believed in this one. Head coach in quarterback. No, I didn't, and I was just curious. The Jags, and the stats are skewed 'cause they got so hot over the second half of the season, but for the totality of the year, they were 14th and offensive DVOA. That's only their second top half of the league finish in offensive DVOA since David Gerard was the quarterback. They were in 2017, they were up there. No, they were 10th in 2022. They weren't even a top half of the first-good Trevor year, right? Yeah, the first-good Trevor year. This is uncharted territory for Jacksonville and to be primed to do it year over year. Like if they're good on offense again this year, putting together back-to-back years of competency in Jacksonville, are you kidding me? I will say this is a little bit of revisionist history. I have more faith in this, but coming out of that first Doug Peterson Trevor year, I felt great. We all kind of believe that it was just going to be like the sky is the limit for this offense. I think that that is, I think both things are true. I think one we finally thought that after how bad the Urban Meyer thing was, it was like, okay, he has like ground to stand on now. That Trevor Lawrence has like somebody here. They were so good in the second half of the season. They were so good in the second half of that season. I do still think that there's a level to Liam Cohn in terms of what the ceiling looks like that we probably didn't believe with Doug Peterson. Maybe not. In the moment, maybe I'm just speaking for myself. I was very excited about what that could potentially look like in the moment. It was much more faith in this than I do in that. No, that's very valid, especially the way they got into the playoffs and the fact that they even gave the Chiefs a game in those playoffs. That Ravens game is burned into my brain. The Ravens game that Trevor Lawrence played in that game is burned into my brain. That Ravens game was sustaining me through like the two years after that when it was so easy to give up hope. I'm going to talk about this later in the segment, but even the year after that, remember, the Jags were like on top of the AFC and gunning for playoff positioning halfway through the next year and everything that's happened since soon came after. Maybe I am tempting fate by saying this feels different, but it does to me. I think when you look at what Liam Cohn did in 2024 with Baker and then when you look at what he did last year, that is different. Even with Doug Peterson and Philly, it just felt a little bit different than what Liam Cohn has been able to do. It was very specific in a way that I have more faith in Liam Cohn's ability to sustain this thing. It was in of its time offense. It was like everybody like they were head on the RPOs, a head on the quarterback run game. It was a very like this works in 2017 offense. You could take what Liam Cohn does now for the most part and paste it over like any other point in NFL history and it would probably be pretty good. Can I just read some stats that I think are flying under the radar as we please do talk about the Jags from week 11 onward last season, which is when things really got rolling for Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence finished third in the league in EPA per dropback, second and success rate, seventh and passing DVOA. He scored 24 total touchdowns during this stretch, which led the league. And even if you want to be mean and take away the five touchdowns that he scored against the Jets and everything that was going on there, he'd still be tied for second in that stretch, only trailing Matthew Stafford. 29 passing touchdowns was a career high. 38 total touchdowns was third most in the league, only behind Stafford and Josh. And his interception rate and his turnover were the play rate were both his best since that 2022 season. He was playing out of his mind. And I don't know, maybe I'm just in a bubble, but I don't really feel like that's getting talked about the way like as he was one of the hottest and best quarterbacks in the NFL down the stretch of last season. He was incredible, man. And I think a lot of it is to me, that is a lot of the how the production came out in the end. And they were obviously an incredible offense. I think what is so inspiring to me is the way that they played. Yes, Trevor Lawrence. That's my favorite part of this from week 10 on Trevor Lawrence was fourth in an average depth of target at 9.4 yards. He had the second highest rate of his completions that went for at least 20 yards. The only person higher was Drake May on attempts without play actions. So just their pure dropback stuff. 21.3% of his completions went for at least 20 yards. Highest in the NFL. That's my favorite part of this offense. Is the gun intermediate? We are slinging this shit around the yard approach to what they were doing. And he's doing it all on time. He had a 2.73 time to throw, despite how far they are chucking it, which was like dead on average in the NFL. Like he is getting to the top of his drop and he is chucking deep outs, post-routs, go balls, digs. Like he's not wasting time and sitting there behind this like pristine offensive line or anything. He is getting the ball out and ripping it. My most frustrating part to me about watching Trevor Lawrence over the last few years talk about Trevor Lawrence games that stick with you. That game they played against the Niners two years ago was disgusting. It was disgusting. Like how would we fall over like five times? It's me who's about how quickly he was getting the ball out. You just felt this condensed offense that defenses could drive down Hillon. And I'm sitting here looking at this guy who's six, six and built like a god that we talked about his physical skill set for five years before he came into the NFL. And I'm watching this offense just massacre the idea of what he was supposed to be. And I'm like, this is awful. And watching that version of the offense we got in the second half of last year is such a far cry from those Jags offenses when they were just completely cutting his legs out from under him and this play style was unacceptable for what he is as a player. And that's what was so fun to watch. He led the league in week 10 on and the percentage of his throws that went to the sticks last year. He led the NFL. And that's what they should be doing. And what's so exciting about this sometimes when you look at back half of the year stats and you kind of cherry pick the end points, it can be a little bit all over the place. There is a very actionable reason why it got better in the second half of the season. The personnel changes. And when you watch the personnel change and it all starts to fit together, you understand what the offense is supposed to look like. Jacobi Myers, Parker Washington and their roles, Brian Thomas Jr. shifted into the role he should actually play. And then the last part about this, the other guy I wanted to mention. So when Myers and Washington were on the field together last year, the Jags average 0.18 EPA per play. That was the same, that's the same numbers when we were talking about T Higgins and Joe burrow, okay? When you put Brent and Strange on the field with those other two guys, it's 0.33 EPA per dropback. Strange coming back to the lineup is a sneaky part of 100% in the place. I love what he is in the offense. And we talked about, all right, the Parker Washington, Jacobi Myers, Brian Thomas, parts of this. Brent and Strange was the only guy who couldn't play the role he's supposed to last year because of what their tight end room look like. He had 336 inline snaps last year. That's not the player that Brent and Strange should be. The borkerture part of this, to me is not just about adding a big body, why to the offense. It allows you to use Brent and Strange the way he should actually be used, which in my opinion, I think Brent and Strange is like one of the three or four best vertical tight end receivers in the NFL. If you look at the numbers last year, among tight ends with at least 50 targets, there were two guys that had a better EPA per target than Brent and Strange last year. George Kittle and Colston Loveland. Probably the two best vertical tight ends in the league. And so I am, you talk about what are we excited about. I hope you can feel it. Like I love the past catching personnel, combined with the way that they were playing last year. And I am really excited to see if they can build on it. Going back to the theme of continuity too, I think it's fun that it's all the same for the first time in a driver's career. This is the first time he's bringing back all three of his primary receivers and his primary tight end year over year. Like there's been so much turnover with all the shit the Jags have gone through. And that's good for any quarterback, but I feel like especially him the way he plays, he's got a little bit of the Dak Prescott. I'm throwing the ball, you better catch it. It helps when those guys know. Yeah, they catch it and they know where they're going to be and they have chemistry with you. Because I feel like half of the interceptions that Trevor Lawrence is throwing over his career is to like some White receiver for who he's like, I will catch the digger out and he's not going to catch the digger. What I love about this is that Trevor playing the way that he did last year just gives Derek covering fire to be back in a, it's never his fault place. Which ever Lauren. It's a really beautiful synchronicity. The fourth receiver did it again. He's perfect. This is what it looks like when opportunity meets preparation is what Derek is allowed to do with Trevor Lawrence right now. Let's talk about what you guys are watching the first month of the season with the Jacksonville Jags. Derek, what is on your mind as we get into the first month of the season with this team? I'm just kind of curious. Like does this defense have another gear to it? Because I'm, I think to say it was a mirage is a little bit strong. But it's, it's a little bit like the charger situation where you look at the talent on the roster and how good they actually actually were. And it's like they kind of overachieved. I think it's a fantastic coaching job. It's a fantastic coaching job. I think they did an incredible job. I loved watching the defense. And I just think sometimes with those cases, and I even said this about mentor, sometimes you want to see that again. And like, can they iterate a little bit? And can they continue to do that? Because they didn't really add a whole lot outside of Travis Hunter, hopefully coming back and playing cornerback. Well, my issue with that, that is, I think they've iterated as much as they could iterate all the weird shit they have to do. They get ready. They're all the knobs are turned to 10 in terms of like the things that the levers they're pulling with this defense. And I think that's why Camino deserves a lot of credit. But I think the question becomes, can you do that again? Like if you think about all the run games, don't they have to rely on all the weird, just the sheer amount of like blitzing situationally, because they were just doing the blend of everything was so cool. And I think they maximize the talent with that. Can you maximize it even more than you did? I'm not sure about that. And again, I'm not positive in like, I think some things went really well for them. Jordan Lewis played exceptionally well for them last year. We came into that year being like, can a 30 year old nickel really do that? Is he worth the money? I think that's one of those things that like maybe, again, he got banged up a little bit last year. Like maybe this is the year it falls off a little bit like Eric Murray is 32 years old at safety. Like there, I know I've had a lot of words about Devon Lloyd not, you know, maybe his season not being as good as second team all pro. He's much better than Ventro Miller, you're going to be brought with him. Yes, you are, especially with in Robert, you've brought this up a lot, his length in coverage. Yeah. Ventro Miller doesn't do that. He might give you like equal stuff in the run game, but that just means I think on first and 10 and stuff, when he's going to be on the field as a run defender, he can probably pick on them a little bit more over the middle of the field. And so I'm just a little bit worried about some of that stuff. And that's why I'm curious like, what do they do to try to iterate and try to make this thing feel a little bit different with like, again, mostly the same players. Mine was how the defense looks and feels different. And I think there are a lot of things you can point to Travis Hunter number one. If Travis Hunter is a difference making corner, that's so open to that. That's already a layer that you're adding to the defense that you didn't have last year. I think the corners played well enough. I mean, Monterra Brown is a nice story, but having Travis Hunter and just give you a little joltz, that's something that I feel is important for this. Do they see the jump they're looking for from Trayvon Walker? That's another important part of this to me. And even with that, do we find more pass rush somewhere? Because that's the area of this defense that when we talk about Mirages and the things that can be sustainable, that's the one that would leave me the most concerned. They were bottom eight last year in pressure rate when bringing four per next gen. Some of the teams below them, Patriots or excuse me, Panthers, Niners, Ravens. What are the Panthers, Niners and Ravens do this off season? They said, let me go get one of them pass rush. And then the raiders got Nick Bose about it. It weren't in training for osu. Yeah, like it's a lot of these teams. And then the one just ahead of them that did nothing because my life is terrible is the bears. But most of the teams that were below them, they have motivated day. Oh, dang, that's all you need. Most of those teams did something because they think they're probably a little bit itchy about their ability to get home before. And if Trayvon Walker doesn't take that step, even if he does, what happens when you have to live in a blitz world where they were the EPA per dropback when they were blitzing last year, very good success rate, middleing. And so on a down to down basis, if you have to live that way, is that something you want to have to do over the course of an entire season? And again, Devon Lloyd was a really good blitzer. And you can convince me that Miller can be finding that sense too. Again, I think he's like a good downhill, just like go hit people sort of player, but Devon Lloyd was really, really good at it because I think an underrated part of linebackers blitzing, when you go and blow up the running back a little bit, you are probably about as close to the quarterback as anybody, having that little bit of length to get a hand up in their face goes a long way. And like Devon Lloyd, I think it was really, really good for that. So you remove that. You look at that depth that they have at edge. I'm just like, I don't know, man, unless you really are like one of the best pressure teams in the NFL, which I'm open to, it's, you might lose a little bit of something here. This is the stories you tell yourself in the off season. For sure, this is off season copium. But if you were hoping for more contributions from guys that were already on your team, because you didn't have the resources to do a lot in the off season, it's nice to lean on the number one and number two overall pick in the last. Can we see jumps from guys that were drafted in the top three? Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. If anybody's going to make one of those jumps, the linebacker, off all linebacker spot, the other one next to FOILU account that Devon Lloyd was playing, that's another thing I'm watching. It's, it's not about who can take that spot. To me, it's about how you cobble it together situationally too. Ventual Miller is more of a thumper, Branson comms is a guy that I feel like you can use more in coverage if they want to play it situationally. And then the other part of this, you mentioned if one of the DB's gets hurt, I actually think defensive back depth is one of the strengths of this team when you just look at right now, because Rand saw his back and you still have Jerry and Jones who had to play a lot last year that's not slated to be a starter. So if you lose Jordan Lewis, Jerry and Jones can capability play the nickel. If you lose Eric Murray, I think kale Branson can play safety. So with some of that defensive back depth, do we see them play more 60 B looks this year, especially in passing situations, the personnel and the question of the other off ball linebacker spot, I think would lead you to believe they would want to do some more of that. And they did it in the first half of the year before they got banged up. I think that's actually a really good point that if, especially on, you know, second and really longs or on some third downs and stuff, just bringing Jerry and Jones on the field instead of whoever linebacker to would be because you're losing the value of Lloyd not being out there. I like that a lot actually. And the safety depth is decent, right? Branson can play for you. I do think that there's just a little bit more flexibility on the back end for them this year than they were last year because the secondary was quietly pretty banged up and didn't include Travis Hunter. Dave, what are you watching the first month of the season with the Jags as me and Derek said here and geek out about the defense. Let me speak for all fantasy football players. I say, Jags, how are we sorting out this running backs for me and Dave did a draft last night and I took Chris Rodriguez late. You didn't you didn't take basal toon. I didn't Chris did. Yeah. Because everybody in the world is so high on basal toon because he's so fast. And I hope that your faith is rewarded. But we have no idea. The Jags running back room in its entirety. Chris Rodriguez basal toon. Laquan Allen 330 career touches. That's not even just carries. That's everything. These guys are toon. That's like a hundred of those. These guys, Chris Rodriguez has a 198 career carries and 112 of those came last year. Basal toon had 83 carries last year. Laquan's Allen 23. Like there are running backs all by themselves who flirted with this workload last year. And that's over these guys entire careers. Chris Rodriguez is very interesting, just because Liam, like he's the one guy they identified, the one guy that they spent any money on. And Liam Cohen has a history with him. But what does that mean? It means that Chris Rodriguez is going to be the lead back for the Jaguar says the guy who just drafted in and every league that I didn't. I need it to happen. I kind of like earnestly believe that. I don't know about. I'd be so happy. I don't know about lead back, but like in fantasy football is not necessarily a perfect representation of real life, but like he's going life for yourself. He's going like seven rounds before Chris Rodriguez. And it's like, it's more likely than not. It's like a 50/50 situation. That would get music to my ears, baby. Not to keep the fantasy parallel going, but I just imagine I'm following the money and guessing Chris Rodriguez is going to be on the field the most. And Basal toon is just going to have half a dozen jaw-dropping explosives this year because that's his role. I really don't know how it's going to shake out. I mean, I think they believe Basal toon can take on a pretty huge workload. And because his play strength is an underrated part of his game, even as a smaller player, I think he's a strong back and he's somebody that can handle more than a speedback typically would be able to from both a workload perspective and just the things they're asking him to do. But I think we're at a point where you can flip a coin. I don't I'm not sure we have a lot of clarity on what exactly it's going to look like. I think toon is just the more exciting option here by the whole hell of a lot. It's very strange to have a whole running back room with this little NFL experience. But the one nice thing is just this wasn't an amazing running game like Travis H. Hans a hell of a player and he got a lot of money and we're all very happy for him. The Jags were bad. They were bottom 10 in rushing success rate. They were below average in rushing DVOA. They were neither good at yards before contacts like they couldn't block anything. And they were not good at yards after contact either. So they didn't have anybody who could just create shit. Basal toon was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51% of his carries last year. Which I believe would have been the worst mark in the league over the course of an entire year. That is untenable. They were stuffed at the line on 22% of their attempts. This is a good transition. Ninth in the lead. It's bottom 10 for for perspective. This is a good thing to bring up Derek. What is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars. The offensive line in run game needs like four dominoes to fall in succession for this thing to work out. One, they are flipping. They're flipping their tackles. Anton Harrison is going to play left tackle. Col van Lennon is going to play right tackle. Col van Lennon. Who knows what he looks like after the season ending injury from last year. So I practiced. Yeah. He has not practiced. Like I think that that's an important thing to bring up. Manual Pregnant is going to be playing left guard for them. He's a third round rookie. And I think he looked good in the one preseason game he played. But it's one preseason game and he's a third round rookie. Like you just don't know exactly how much better that's going to be for them. And then you add that on top of like how good is basal toot and really? How good is Chris Rodriguez? Really? And so I think you just need all of these things to fall on top of. We haven't even really talked about Nate Borkerture a little bit like how can he really be like a difference making, you know, block tied end out of the gate. And so kind of need these like four things to fall in. I think three of them would probably be enough. But I think one or two of them in this run game is just not significantly better than it was last year. I think it has to be because it was bottom of the barrel last year. I think they need to get to a place where it's at least passable if the offense is going to be able to sustain the way that we want it because it's hard to run that hot as a passing offense when teams know your run game. Absolutely. Absolutely. And I think when you have to be the bangles. Yes. And when you do it over a seven eight week stretch, okay, that's fine. To do it over a course of a season, when teams are now coming into the season, maybe thinking you might be that bad, it's it would be very hard for them to live that way again. I meant before last year's bangles, by the way. The bangles last year ran the ball well. But for the majority of Joe boroughs time, you'd have to be those sorts of bangles teams where we can line up in the guns, sling it around. There's nothing you can do about it. I'm excited about the past catching pieces for the Jags. Do we think they're that? I don't think so. I don't know. I mean, it's maybe maybe Parker Washington's Jamar Chase. I don't know. That's kind of to be true. What a find. I'm mine. I'm in the exact same boat with you. It's just what's keeping me up and at the quality of front and what it means for the run game. 31st and rushing success rate in the back half of the season, all the offensive line shuffling. The tight end stuff is worth mentioning, not only just adding a Borkerture skill set, but now being able to use strange in the way that he should be used as a blocker too, where you're just having him sift. You're doing all the things that you should be doing as I can undersize, receiving tight end. He's capable. He's not a zero. He could get by as a why, but that's not what you now have him there to do. And so I do think the this the two back or the two tight end multi tight end running stuff from them last year was really bad. And so them being in a place where that can be a little bit better. I think is worth paying attention to. I'll say, even if when you look at students advance numbers, he had a 47% success rate on those 83 carries last year, despite averaging 3.7 yards of carry, I think I think he was doing a decent amount with what was being blocked. And so if it just can get a little bit better than it was last year, I do have faith in him. And then we've talked a lot about the success rate stuff from Rodriguez last year within that offense. He was a good get on base sort of back. And so there is a path here, but like you said, I think it just requires a lot of dominos to fall into place. And when you look at the offensive line, I was going to say, is it wouldn't be the worst offense? Let's say they win the Super Bowl. Would it be the worst offensive line to win it won a Super Bowl? And how long? I mean, unless Emmanuel Pregnant is a Pro Bowl out of the gate, it's definitely crazy. Seattle. Yeah. It's like a great table from last year. And it's fair to think he won't be raised able was a first round pick. Emmanuel Pregnant is at their ground pick. And so he's it's probably a worse offensive line than what's the out of one with last year. And even Seattle winning it last year was a little bit of like usually the offensive line of a Super Bowl winning team is better than that. So I think it's pretty good to bring up. That ties into mind, which is just overarching. When you don't make meaningful personnel ads, you're banking on all of your bets hitting in order to be substantially better. And what keeps me up at night is just how much better are the Jags actually from last year's team, which needed a heater to like be as good as they were. And then even still you run into teams in the playoffs. And they it was such a great game against the bills, but they they went out in the wild card round. Like they weren't close. And how much better is this team from that? I mean, we don't have to go back over everything. You all just said, but these are all these are all offseason hopes. You hope Travis Hunter is that guy. You hope that you're right that Nate Boehlkurtcher can make your offense a little more three dimensional. You hope that you're right about all of these young running backs. And I just I don't trust that anybody is going to nail everything to that degree. And so sometimes they do, right? I mean, to keep bringing up Seattle. I mean, a lot of the offseason bets that they made hit like gangbusters, it's possible. It just makes me nervous when you're counting on being that correct about that many things to to take another step. And I do think that they were good on both sides of the ball in a way that doesn't take away from how many games they won. But there's still elements of who they were last year that there was a little bit of luck. And they have 31 takeaways last year. That's a crazy number. The only team that had more is a team that is absolutely not going to do that again. That resides in the city we're sitting in right now. And then the other part of it, Barnwell had a really good start with this. And I think it's something that's worth thinking about looking at the defense and why it probably has to be better than it was a year ago for them to do this again. 41% of the Jags defensive drop-backs last year came against quarterbacks who were not their team's primary starter. That's a good set. Good pull, Bill. And so they're playing a lot of backups. And I think that does some lifting when you look at just the overall defensive numbers that were very good last year. So I completely understand where you're coming from just with the the bets that they're having to make and the fact that the margins feel a little bit slim with those. What does success look like, Derek, for the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars? I mean, it feels crazy to say about this many AFC teams will like go to the AFC championship. You know, you know, they played in the AFC championship game. You know what? You didn't say that. I did say that even though those are wild cars. I appreciate considering that you're the Jags enthusiast. I appreciate you standing 10 toes down and like not backing off of your enthusiasm. I don't think that's necessary because I think even some amount of regression with the turnovers and maybe the defense isn't doesn't have quite the same teeth and all this stuff. I still think that they're like a like a tennis win quality team. And then if some of the things hit, I do think that they're a little bit better than that. And so again, I think the part of the reason I'm saying AFC Championship is because it does feel so wide open right now. I don't think that they're quite the quality of team that I would typically have described that too. But I do think that they have that gear to them and the way that they were running so hot at the end of last year. I'm like, they showed me that they have that gear to them and just ran into a really good build team. I really appreciate the gap between your expectations and mine because I just want the Jags to establish themselves as a team that we can trust to be in the mix year over year. That's what I want. And this goes back to the top of to what I said at the top of the segment. I want I want the Jags to make the playoffs without any of the patented Jags bullshit. Let's go back and let's revisit the Trevor Lawrence era. This is year six. Two of his five previous years, they've been just awful DOA four wins or less. The other three years in 2022, they started three in seven before going on a six and one run to steal the AFC South at the end of the year. I had such a good time during that run. I really enjoyed it. In 2023, they were eight in three at Thanksgiving and daydreaming about getting home field advantage in the playoffs. They went one in five down the stretch and crashed out of the postseason entirely. Last year, they were four and three at the by the Rams ragdolled them in London and they looked dead in the water and then they went 10 and one. Can we just have a normal like 10 and seven Jags season where we don't have to have something historic happen down the stretch for their season to be decided. If they have a quiet 10 and seven season, don't even care if they win the division. Just make the playoffs without being goofy. It would mean a lot to me for a team that you really haven't been able to count on year over year. I kind of think that's just inherent to who they are. And I don't even mean then how can you expect them to reach the AFC title game. I mean, I know you didn't pick. I still I do think the floor over while I think the floor overall here is higher. I do just think that they're like a team that there's going to be some weird vastly. Is that just what happens in northern Florida because I think well, this is getting out in front of the Trevor apology is early as he possibly can. The thing about Trevor, I think at one point, was it earlier this season where I was arguing like I swear to god, he's quarterback 11. Like and that's a totally fine thing for him to be. I don't think he is any better than that, even despite how well last season went. Like I'm still kind of like he is what he is. I think if they make the playoffs again, exactly what I wrote is make the playoffs again. Hammer home that this is an offense quarterback and play collar that is here to stay among the best in the league. If you can do both of those things, I think that's a success. They had no resources this off season. They're not pushing their chips in. That being said, I was looking up. They're $13 million over the cap next year. They paid a lot of guys. Col van Landon, Jacobi Myers, Perger Washington needs a new contract. There is less financial wiggle than you want, but they'll have resources again. They'll have draft resources again. I would just like to not be surprised by the jacks preferably for better, but like either what like they're either surprisingly good or surprisingly bad. Just do what I think you can do for once and get to the playoffs. That would be fine. I do feel better about the offense than I've ever felt, including going into the 23 season after enjoying that late season run from them in 22. All right. Before we get to the Indianapolis Colts, let's take one more quick break. Let's get to the Indianapolis Colts. Our preview for the 2026 Indianapolis Colts. Captain Daniel Jones, Captain Alec Pierce, signed Michael Clemens, Arden Key, Keenan Allen, very late and a Keem Davis Gather, lost Michael Pittman in a trade, Quiddie Pay, Braden Smith, Nick Cross, and free agency in the draft. CJ Allen in the second round, AJ Halsey in the third round, Jay one farmer and linebacker Bryce Betcher. Why that's important is that all of those guys may have to play at some point this year. What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Colts, Dave? I think sauce gardener and char various word could be really special if they're both healthy and playing up to their potential. And it's a fun thing about trades like the sauce trade. I didn't like it when it happened. I didn't really think the Colts needed to do it. I thought it was a mistake. But you're right about that. Now that we're here, though, he's on the roster. Sauce gardeners are really, really good football player. And last year was the worst of his career. He only played 11 games. He's obviously banged up. He's still in his quote unquote, worst year, allowed a 49% catch rate on his targets, which was top 10 in the league. He was targeted on just shy of his, just shy of 14% of his dropbacks, which is in line with name your favorite corner. He's right there, statistically, in terms of how often offenses are even willing to go at him. And he had eight pass breakups, which is a top 25 number, despite missing six games last season. Like he's still a productive good player. And he's also, I think he just had his birthday too. He's 25 years old. I think Sawas Gardener is still really, really good. Whether that means the cult should have traded to first round picks forum is immaterial to this year's team. Char various ward my god. He's been through the ringer the last couple of years. I mean, multiple injuries. He was banged up last year with concussion problems. Very tragically lost his daughter during his last season in San Francisco. So you could understand why his play might have dipped since he was in all pro in 2023. But in 2023, he led the league in pass breakups at five splash splash plays playing cornerback for the 49ers. And last year, despite missing seven games with concussions, he was right behind Sawas in the degree to which he was contesting the football he had seven pass breakups. This is a hell of a cornerback pairing. And Luana rumo loves to play man defense and do goofy shit and blitz when he's got a great pair of cornerbacks. If they're healthy and playing, I think they could have a transformative effect on the cult's defense. And we'll get to everything with Daniel Jones in the cult's offense. But I have a, I don't have a high degree of trust, but I have some degree of trust that this offense can still be pretty good. If the defense is much better than we're giving it credit for, the cult's could surprise you. And I think it starts with these two cornerbacks. In the second half of last year, the cult's played man on 60% of their third down snaps, which was the highest rate in the league. It was four percentage points higher than the Cleveland Browns, which when you're beating Jim Ford, when you're laughing, the Browns and man coverage rates on third down, you are more than comfortable playing that way. And they had a 40% blitz rate on third down on third downs, where they played man and brought extra pressure. They were top 10 and EPA for dropback in the back half of last year. That's the vision. Yeah. That is, that is the vision for the defense. That's how they will have to play in order to get by. I want to let you have the pristine view on that because I'm going to have the pessimistic view on some of that a little bit later. I'm going to save it because I don't want to step on how much you're enjoying yourself. I at least share some of his excitement. And maybe this is closer to a what I'm watching, but like the youth movement in the back. You're excited about nothing overall. You're just watching everything. Yeah. I'm just with the clothes that is how I feel like I'm just monitoring the situation, at least for the first couple of months of the season. But I mean, they just have a lot of young guys in the back seven, like they brought in. They drafted CJ Allen in the second round, who I think they expect to start at linebacker. Bryce Betcher, who you mentioned who I don't know how much he will play, but I do like he was playing a lot in the preseason. I think there's a chance that he's probably their third linebacker off the bench. AJ Halsey at safety who they drafted in the third round was getting a lot of run. And so I think he could be interesting. And then Justin Wally, who I know that you mentioned was they were pretty high on him coming in. They lost about him coming into last year. And he's the starting nickel now. They know it's like for a very young guy that Kenny Moore just left. Like they seem told they're excited about Wally. And I think Wally gives you some man coverage stuff as as the nickel. We might as well do this now. Here's what's keeping me up at night. Just skipping all the way. Well, because we're talking about it. Yeah. Don't the colds have like the easiest what's keeping you up at night. I'm sorry. No, because to me, it's not even I think the offense still to me like has a relative floor, even if we don't think it's going to get back to the heights of last year. I think that's fair. What you just are laying out there. We got a rookie second round pick at my back. And we got a rookie third round pick at safety. We got a guy we've never seen before as now the starting nickel. Bryce Betcher is going to play because he is right now probably over camp. CJ Allen was hurt for a good chunk of camp. Bryce Betcher was their best linebacker. The only reason that he's not starting right now is that the idea of putting a second and fourth round pick next to each other at linebacker is terrifying. And so it came in exactly. And so a team Davis Gator is probably going to play just to give some veteran stability. And he's a guy who's played for Luana Ruma before all of that, all of the youth that you're worried about. Okay. Chavarius word has not played football for the most part in the last two years. So this idea that oh man, which are various word and sauce gardener. You play all this man coverage and they're just going to blitz the shit out of people. And that's how they're going to get by. What are char various word gets hurt again? Do you look to the depth that the cults have at corner? Well, then I won't be excited anymore, Robert. But I'm just saying that's what's keeping me up at night is that the margins on this defense all the things they have to go right for you to feel decent about it. The ad rushing group. Yes, they aren't in key is starting. They need. They need some of those like mid like day three rookies to give them something as past rushers this season for this defense to be viable. What I said about them being top 10, any paper dropback on third down when they blitzed last year, they were bottom four on early down dropbacks where they only brought four, any paper dropback, the only teams that were worse with the jets, cardinals and commanders. Oh, buddy. I mean, looking through the 2D to forest buckner even at his age, although it comes with injury issues of his own. After last year, she's a guy that's getting up there, been in the league for a while. After him, though, it's what? No, the all of the basis for cults optimism on the defensive side of the ball, at least, is that those two corners are going to play 15 plus games at a high level. Yes. And I think I'm excited about it partially because you have no choice but to hope that that happens. And not only would it have a tangible effect on your defense, but it would go a long way toward making you not feel sick about doing that trade. I don't even, I don't know if that just, I don't know if there's something sauce could do to justify it, but playing like an all pro for 16 games this year would, would help. That's where we were talking about the defense and figured this was the time to pull it out, but that that is what is keeping me up in it is that the margins on that side of the ball feel incredibly thin. Let's talk about what we're watching the first month of the season with the Indian apolis coast. Oh, by the way, might what I'm excited about. I didn't hit that. This is the best offense of the league over the first half of last year. We saw them do it. It was a real thing that happened. And even if they started to fall off, he the quarterback before he tore his Achilles, broke his leg. That is a real thing that happened. He played multiple games on a broken leg. It's kind of crazy. He did something worse after that that we just forget that he broke his, he broke his leg. And so even if we have concerns about them being able to hit the heights that they hit in the first half when they were one of the best accessory teams of the last decade, and we have plenty of numbers you can throw out like the best one to me through eight weeks. Daniel Jones leads the league in total EPA when pressured was top 10 and EPA for dropback and success rate in weeks 9 through 13. He was 30th after leaning the league in total EPA or any pay for dropback on those plays where he was pressured. At least some of that you have to tell yourself is because the man was playing on a broken leg, but it was always going to fall back to earth a little bit. I think my excitement is even if we can expect a small step back from the offense. He's been healthy all off season, but he played every rep of training camp. They were doing everything with him boots, row outs. This is not a Kirk cousins Achilles situation. And so I do think that there is still a version of this offense that even if they're not the best one in the league, I like Shane Stichen. I like some of the past catching town. The offensive line ecosystem is proven to be very good. Jonathan Taylor is a really really good player. There is a conceivable universe where I really enjoy watching the Indianapolis Colts offense again. And I am excited to believe in that at least a little bit. See, I just feel like it's the flip side of the defensive thing where the ideal version of this would look but we saw it. We saw it with the offense. I'm not willing. I and I hear everything. You have been very complimentary of Daniel Jones's recovery. Everybody that's gone through Indianapolis is like nothing. It looks like nothing ever happened. It's still training camp and they're still not allowed to touch you. And that is something that I've at least got my eye out for to me. It's movement skills though. Like the idea that you're moving the only thing he can't really do and he has said this is when he's opening the throttle fully as a runner. He's probably not 100%. How many times is that necessary? How many times did that actually run him that much last year? To me, it's more about how nimble are you in the pocket? Like, what can you do in with quarterback based movements? And I think the fact that he's not going to be stationary and he's going to be functionally athletic, that to me gives me much more optimism about what the offense can potentially look like. I'm just imagining, you know who they play week one. All do I want to know? Baltimore. Oh, man. I'm imagining Trey Henderson tearing ass around the edge and a play where it didn't seem like he was going to have to be at full throttle turns into a scramble for all hell to the sideline. And I'm not like, I'm not saying he's going to get hurt, but like, how ready is he for the actual beats of football? Because in training camp, Trey Hendrix and tags him up and he throws it anyway and everybody goes, those are sac, those are sac. And the play goes on. That doesn't happen in the regular season. And I at least want to see it before I just assume that it's going to be okay. That's why I'm at like, I'm watching like, okay, they're letting him play full practice and all that stuff and they're letting him do everything. They're letting him boot. They're letting him do all of it. Being comfortable with he can do it and him being healthy and good enough that they are the best offense in the league and I think are two very, very different things. And so I think I'm just very curious to see how he looks. And then to a, a, not, I wouldn't say lesser extent, but to a different extent, can Alex Pierce play that's what we're going to get there. We're going to get there. So Dave, what are you watching the first month of this? This is what you're watching too. Was Daniel Jones's health. So let's just extend that. Yours was Daniel Jones's health. Yours is what? Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce. Okay. And then mine is how the past catching will roll shake out. So we're just moving. Yeah, moving down. Okay. So let's talk about Alec Pierce and your concerns, potentially about Alec Pierce. I mean, there was a report today. I don't know if you saw this. You probably put this in beforehand that they were like, we hope he can play week one. We're nine days away. And where we hope he can play when he's our $28 million supposed to be our best receiver. I just think that like, I had already expressed concerns that I think they're hoping that the receiver core is as good as it was last year with Kenan Allen being brought in for Michael Pym and I'm not sure I believe that. Now if Alec Pierce isn't going to be a hundred percent, especially to start the season, I would like to see what he looks like when he does play whenever that might be. Alec Pierce has never had a higher than a 16 percent target share in this offense. By the way, when he's been health. So now he's coming off of not having a training camp and is going to be looked at to be that guy that's going to get 24 25 plus percent of the targets. This is this would be where some of my concern lies because they were going to ask him by default by necessity to expand what he was going to be doing within the offense. Last year, you saw him add to his game. He used to, he went from a pure vertical receiver to somebody who was running more crossers was running more digs and doing it capably and very early in the year that was clear. But now with Pittman gone, they were going to be asking him to do a little bit more stuff, even more closer to the formation, working through some of the muck over the middle of the field. Couldn't work on that over the course of the summer. Like the guy that we saw add to his game, maybe more than any other receiver in the league from the 23 24 season to the 25 season. And you'd think with another full off season could do it again, didn't have the off season to do it again. And I think that part is concerning. And the other part is what was so cool about the Colts offense last year is that the past catching roles were so perfectly tailored to the skill sets of the players. And now even if you like the players individually and you like the talent of the players, you are expanding what those roles look like, what does that mean? Like what do you get from Josh Downs when you've taken him from the very specific way you were using him to now he is your number two outside receiver. He's now a vertical player in a way you didn't have to be before. He's going to more sail routes, more crossers, more 12 personnel stuff, asking peers to expand his menu. Who knows? Like one of the best parts about the offense is everyone was placed in their little role perfectly as you change those roles, can the efficacy of the offense continue? And I kind of feel like maybe Tyler Warren could be this guy in year two. And I would guess the optimistic case for the Colts offense is that that happens. He's not the flashiest player in the league, but Michael Pittman just felt so central to kind of gluing it all together in my opinion. He was the runaway target leader for this team over the last four years. Warren was the first guy to get more targets than him over go back as far as you want. And I said it to you, I understand the financials of it all and how it all shook out. But the eagerness with which the Colts got rid of him considering everything he's been doing for them in a non flashy capacity, surprising to me. And I'm not convinced it's just going to gel together. Even let's even say Alec Pierce is healthy. I'm not convinced it's going to gel together as effortlessly as it looked at times last year. I like the pieces, all of them. I like Josh Downs as a player. I like Alec Pierce as a player. I like Tyler Warren as a player. But as you're asking all of them to do a little bit more, does it feel just a little bit less clean than it felt last year? That's my problem. And I think that's important. Some guys do take to like a super increased role better. But I think that sometimes guys are really productive in very specific roles. Like there's probably a difference in how Alec Pierce plays and produces when he's getting targeted five times a game versus potentially like 10 if things really go a certain way for them. And so I just think how some of that looks and how some of that shakes out. I'm a little bit worried. I feel a little bit better now that they have Keenan Allen to at least replace some of the Michael Pitman stuff. But I think Michael Pitman currently is like a tier or two better than what Allen is giving you. I think I read a report. He's expected to be available for a week one despite he was arrested over the weekend. That feels worth noting at least. How they play the two receiver stuff. I'm curious about to just who's out there. Because I think part of the concern is that the reason that Downs hasn't been a part of those looks before is that his limitations in the run game just make it hard to figure out exactly what you can do when he's out there in those two receiver in those two tight on sets. And now the challenge of the coaching staff becomes we have to play with tendencies. If he's out if we're throwing every time he's on the field, defenses are going to start responding to that. And so how do we have enough runs in the menu when he's out there and we can hide him and on those runs in order to make sure that we're not creating these really, really heavy heavy tendency things or as an offense. And so, I mean, that's the type of stuff they have to be weighing. And I think that was the type of stuff that they were weighing even in a world where Kenanau wasn't a part of this because the Kenanau and Alec Pierce, I still think you need Josh Downs in some of those looks for you to feel as dangerous as you want to feel as an offense. He was a vertical player in North Carolina. He can do some of this stuff. And in training camp, the best challenge we talked about this was Spencer Fano, how there is no better challenge as a undersized play strength questions tackle than playing against Jared verse every single day. Josh Downs every day at training camp has to play against sauce gardener and Traverius Ward and press coverage and see what he can do. And so they they know exactly what they can get out of Josh Downs as a receiver because they were pushing against the fence every single day over the last month. We'll see what it ends up looking like. Please never give up. I'm never going to give up. I believe in the I believe in the Josh Downs experiment. What is keeping you up at night, Dave, about the 2026 Indianapolis Colts? It all, we've covered it all, but it all rolls together. Like at some point, trying to replicate lightning in a bottle as you start to lose bits and pieces of it just feels like a scary strategy where if it was just Alec Pierce moving into a bigger role and coming off of an injury, that would probably be fine. If it was just Daniel Jones recovering from an injury, that would probably be fine. If you were just replacing another starting offensive lineman, which we haven't talked about, by the way, Tanner Bordellini and Mack and Salva's really made me eat my words last year because you would have had no clue that they were new to the lineup. Jalen Travis has to do it this year now. Maybe he will. Maybe the Colts just have the secret sauce for replacing starters with day two and day three draft picks and it's not a big deal, but that's something to watch. We just mentioned everything wrong with the defense and counting on two cornerbacks to make up all that ground. Is it possible? Maybe is it likely? I don't know. We're going to find out, but there's just there's so much hope with this team. There's so much like squinting to see it that it makes me nervous that you can actually replicate what we saw last year with as much consistency as you need. I mean, I'm in the same boat. I just don't really think the offensive. I just don't think the offense can do even like 85% of what it did last year because again, just the accumulation of all these things. It's not just one thing like Dave said, it's all of it together. And like, I think the other thing that we haven't quite talked about and it makes sense, but once Daniel Jones got hurt and then went down like the run game just was not very good. Yeah, it's bad. Like they just could not move people the same way. Like even if Daniel Jones didn't run a lot, a lot of what they were doing was they were at least making him a threat on some of those runs. And also through week 10, when Daniel Jones was playing in healthy, they were they were calling the offense in a very specific way. They were not running a lot on first down. They were like one of the heaviest pass on first down teams at a third lowest designed run rate on first down. And they threw to the six 38.5% of the time, which is the eighth highest in the NFL. First down was they like, we're chucking it sort of down. And then second and third down was like get on track and get our explosives. Once Jones got hurt in that flipped, I wonder now it's like, okay, if Daniel Jones is going to be a little bit not healthy, do they really want to be one of the most past heavy first down offenses in the league? Because the other teams in that stratosphere are like the Rams are kind of like this, the bears are kind of like this, the jaguars are a little bit of this. And it's like, those are teams that I think have a little bit better quarterbacks. And so at least especially, I think like the Rams part of me think it's just the way you should play offense though. Even if the quarterback quality isn't quite the at the same level, I think that's just the way you should approach NFL offense. I think the through line between those teams is the quality of the play callers and the approach that they're taking to the process. I agree with that. I think with them just being so far on the extreme of it and getting away with it with a lesser quarterback than some of those teams, I wonder how sustainable that really is. I think that's my biggest question. When I said that Berningam is bad, it was below average success rate for Jonathan Taylor in the back half of the year. He had a 55% rushing success rate on under center runs in the first eight weeks. So to go from 55% to below average is a precipitous trouble. Yeah, so that's it's worth it. That would have led the league by far by far. The best teams are like 49%. I mean, he was MVP. We had a fight about whether he should win offense and player of the year at mid season. And it just, you know, a bunch of shit happened after that. I pretty much said my piece with the defense. To me, it's the defensive margins. And I don't disagree with you guys about the offense. I think I'm more willing to, I don't think they'll be the best offense in the league. I think I have enough inherent faith in Stichen. And I like enough of the players that I could see them being a top 10 offense again. I could see them being like a back half of the top 10 offense again. But combining that, if they're the it's best offense in the league with the defense that God damn how many things have to go right for them to even be a top half of the league defense. Where does that leave you? It leaves you probably on the outside looking in in the AFC. I will say, I don't want to speak for you Derek, but the colds are a fun situation where three weeks into the season, maybe all your concerns about this are satisfied. Like if Daniel Jones really does just look like he picked up where he left off last September. Does the two halves of last season make you think differently about that? Because it could look good for eight weeks. Well, okay, but he got hurt. Yeah, I don't know. I know. I know. But with him, he gets hurt a lot. And I do think that is a consideration. He does get banged up a lot. Hopefully, it's going to be better than broken leg and torn Achilles. That was about as worse as bad as I've gotten. My nice interpretation of this, though, is like if if Daniel Jones is healthy and looks similar and the offense is fine, especially this offense, like if JT is that guy again, you can ball control the shit out of this and run the football and pose your will on teams to mask a defense. Like that still works. Especially now with the way things are trending back toward the run. Like this offense could mask a lot of defensive deficiencies if it is that sort of unit. I don't know if it will be, but you can hope the volatility. They just have to lean into the volatility on defense. That has to be it because outside of lots, you're taking a significant step, which I do think he is capable of doing. I think there is a universe where he is a you feel him over the course of these games, but then missing out on Trey Hendrixson this spring is one of the bigger like pivot point, like moments of the entire offseason because if Trey Hendrixson is on this team with Latu and you look at the interior, then maybe it's a little bit easier to talk yourself into the youth on in the secondary, but now I just think it's against so many things have to go right. Like it's a little bit different when you're banging on Trey Hendrixson, getting you 12 sacks over the course of the season, compared to some combination of like Arden Key and Caden Curry and Michael Clements. So many things have to go right for this team. So let's talk about them going right. What does success look like for the 2026 cults, Dave? Unfortunately for them, nobody wants to hear that shit. Make the playoffs. It's been since 2020. I mean, they must make the playoffs. Make the playoffs. And ironically, this division was one that you could win with nine or 10 wins for like five years. Like this, we joked for years about, I'll just pencil them into the foresee that the AFC South is going to get. I don't think that's the case anymore. We're all super high on the Texans. We'll see if the Jags can follow up that success. But anybody in the AFC could be the one seat this year. Absolutely feeling. Yeah. Yeah. But this division produced two 12 plus win teams last year. And that could happen again. That's not how it's like. This is the AFC South. It's a different situation. This is a way harder division to win than it was two, three, four years ago. The cults. They don't have to win it, but they just, they got to get to the playoffs. And I think that's much harder in today's AFC South than it was. But I don't think anybody wants to hear it. I mean, Ballard himself said during training camp that he wouldn't give himself a contract extension if it was offered because he knows they need to make the playoffs. He's, he knows that if they do not make the playoffs, he's out. They like, I don't think there's any ambiguity about it, whatsoever. And so I think that organizationally, there's an understanding of that. If I can spin it a positively, just for a second, but this, if we're trying to think about the optimistic multiyear view on this, the oldest player on the offense is 30. They're thinking it out. He doesn't count. He's not like a camp body. He's going to be a little bit. The oldest player on the offense is 30. They have $60 million in cap space next year, and they could free up a lot more of it. If this offensive infrastructure proves to be real, there is runway with this. There is a multiyear potential runway with this. And that does, if they look even close to what they did in the first half of the season with the quarterback back healthy, and you can project that over a multiyear level, and you have resources going into next year. Could we feel decent about this team if they sneak into the playoffs and the offense proves to be that? And that's why I think success for me, this is kind of specific. Be the 2024 Buccaneers. Except in their case, they would get to hold over the offensive infrastructure that made the 2024 Bucks. What they were, the 2024 Bucks, they only went 10 and 7, so it's not like they blew the league out of the water, but they were fourth and scoring on offense, and they were 16th on defense. That's probably about what the vision should be. What's happy to, yeah, the defensive personnel had some huge questions about it, but it got you by actually a really good comparison. So they get 2024 Bucks, but keep your play collar. Yeah, they would keep their, and obviously, you know, the Bucks get to the playoffs and lose a game to a red hot Washington team. And so I'm not necessarily saying that part, but just like how the regular season fell and why you were the team that you were, I think being some version of that, and then you get to hold over what was good about your team to begin with. I'm like, that's not a bad outcome for for what this season could, but that's a top five offense. It was a top five offense. That's different than again, finishing 10th on offense this year and being interesting and hostile. We like steak in, but it's imperfect. That's that gap between those two things to me is the difference. Because if they're 10th or 11th on offense, which is like a pretty reasonable outcome, given all the stuff that has happened, and they are 19th on defense. Is that a playoff team? Probably not. Probably not. Do you think if they don't make the playoffs, it's a house cleaning, or do you think steak and could stay behind? It's a great question. I truly don't know. I think that every organization has to decide how they're going to handle that a little bit differently. Some teams are just going to look at it as an opportunity for a clean break. I will see what happens this year. It would have to be a truly a real step back from him specifically for him not to have a job immediately, again, immediately. That's why if the offense looks remotely similar, you could talk me into that. Yes, you know, you guess changing the general manager, keeping Shane's steak in place. That doesn't seem far fetched to me at all. No, I don't think it is, but it just depends on how teams want to handle it. Right. I mean, it's just everyone's going to do that a little bit differently. And I understand both approaches to it. Let's get to the Tennessee Titans. Our preview for the 2026 Tennessee Titans. Robert Salah in as the head coach, Brian Dable in as the offensive coordinator. It's going to take a while. Signed Juan del Robinson, John Franklin Myers, Alante Taylor, Cordell Flot, Jermaine Johnson in a trade for Devandre Sweat, Austin Schlotman, Daniel Belinger, Jacob Martin. Again, some of those guys a little bit further down are going to start. So that's why it's worth mentioning them. Lost of Andre Sweat, Arden Kee, Sebastian Joseph Day in the draft. Colonel T. Keldrick Falk, Anthony Hill and Fernando Carmona. Again, Fifram Pick, but looks like to be a starting guard right now. What are you most excited about as it relates to the 2026 Titans, Derek? I'm kind of excited to see Robert Salah's microwave defense here. They have at least five new starters on defense. You know, the Cordell Flot, they signed, Alante Taylor, they signed. I mean, you just mentioned all of them. And so I think half of them are guys who played in the New York area. Yes, half of them are guys to play for the New York area. And like some of these guys, yeah, played for Robert Salah specifically, John Franklin Myers had played for him in Tennessee for a little bit. And Jermaine Johnson had a really good 2023 season with Robert Salah made the Pro Bowl seven and a half sacks. The year after that, he terraces Achilles and then 2025 this past year. He was kind of working back from that. And so I actually have like a little bit of faith that Johnson could be a year after the year, a sort of player with the injury. I like to call it a decent amount, especially if he can just be kind of like an early down glass eating type so far in this defense. And so I don't think that this is going to be a good defense. But Robert Salah had last year's 49ers defense that had nobody by the end of the year, especially up front playing incredibly hard. I think that this defense is more talented than that, especially when you have a guy like Jeffrey Simmons. And so I'm just excited to see how quickly they can get off the ground. Between Salah with the Jets, because like Solomon Thomas is here, Tony Adams is hanging out on the depth chart, Salah with the Jets and Brian Dable bringing in former giants. I mean, that's 40% of the roster. You feel good about that? Not really. I feel better about them. Their defensive roster last year was pretty disgusting at a certain point. I don't disagree with that. It's more so just trying to recreate the Jets and the Giants over the last five years. That's something we want to be doing. The Jets defenses were really really incredible. Those just defenses were incredible. The problem is even if you make those Jets defenses, which I think you'll have a harder time doing without sauce gardener and Quinn Williams, and you make the Giants offences, where does that leave you? Not in a great spot. Not in a great spot. Probably outside the playoffs. I'm sorry. I'm taking the wrong tone with the way you were excited about the section. Mine is just the remade front four. Yeah, just even beyond that. We'll talk about the cornerback signings. Like those are just the types of things where you're throwing a lot of money around a lot of money to what end I have questions about. But the front four is just drastically different than it was a year ago. We talked about this when we were discussing. I think it was John, John Wilson, and just a different level of talent that he's dealing with with the Giants. Jihad Ward led the Titans and edge pressures last year. So having some combination of Jermaine Johnson, Jacob Martin, and Keltrick Falk as your new edge players compared to what it was a year ago. That is a drastic improvement. And the idea of John Frankl Myers playing next to Jeffrey Simmons. I'll take that. I was going to say, have we said, take that we said Jeffrey Simmons on this segment yet because that's definitely worth being excited. Even him just having more help is just and literally my, what I'm most excited about is John Frankl Myers playing next to Jeffrey Simmons. That was the thing in my notes, but I was expanding it a little bit. So I'm looking forward to that group feeling drastically different than it did a I remember really like Jacob Martin as a bit signing. I didn't expect to see him in the starting lineup when training camp ended, but he had some nice focus. A young player with a long, with a, a wild to go. Exactly. It's going to take him a little bit to get off the ground, but like, it's not even just two that like the players are different. Obviously, losing to Wagner's sweat is going to hurt, but he probably never made sense for this defense. This is just such more. I mean, it's the Robert Salahway. It isn't attack defense. Yeah. Jameen Johnson is going to get up the field. John Franklin Meyer is going to get up the field. I think having Simmons in a role where like the whole defense is built around him doing that. I'm kind of excited to see. And then I like Solomon Thomas and Jordan Elliott, when they're depth pieces, that's pretty good. Like they've been stretches for Jordan, where Jordan Elliott has been like a starter in San Francisco. And I'm like, I don't know about that. But if he's coming off of the bench, that's actually a pretty good spot for you to be in. Dave, what are you most excited about with Titans? I understand that you have to ignore everything that happened in the preseason. It's still be excited about Cam Ward, but I'm, I'm choosing not to see it. I'm choosing to believe that it's preseason nonsense. I remember when Jamar Chase said catching pro footballs was harder for him because they didn't have stripes on him. And everybody thought he was going to suck. And that turned out okay. And Jerry's still out. Right. Exactly. I'm triple crown. I'm, I'm choosing to be excited about Cam Ward despite a month of reasons to dampen my enthusiasm. I mean, the preseason was not pretty the first, the second game wasn't that bad. The Seattle game. He had some moments. The Seattle game. He had some moments. We got to, we got to move beyond has some moments though. We got to move beyond has to, I understand, but that like that can't be the conversation about. I will get to that. I will get to that. He didn't have a completion that traveled more than six air yards in the preseason. Yeah. He put, he put a number of them on people's hands, which is the problem that it has been last year. It's, Cam Ward, you're the same vision, just, it's not, you know, the sword is drawn for Cam Ward. I've always had one. I'm not trying to bag on Cam Ward, but I mean, and it wasn't just him, by the way. Like, Carnell Tade had a very forgettable preseason. The offense just, I wanted it to look more put together. I wanted it to look more like guys with a plan instead of squinting and saying, well, that was a really cool throw. It didn't get completed, but look how, look how fast it came off of his hand. And it just didn't happen. And the, the scramble play, was it against Seattle where he got, that was, yeah, that was, that was, that can't happen. We can't be doing that shit in year two, especially having gone through the year that the Titans already went through. So you're right, though, like it, it shouldn't be enough to chase us off of being excited about Cam Ward. So I am still excited about Cam Ward. I just don't, don't do that. Have my. No, don't do that because I was about to make a joke about it. Oh. I'm missing something in our dock where I have the category, I have the category answers. This is the best Freudian thing. I spelled Titans are, tyrants like giants, TIA and, and TIA and T.S. You didn't, you didn't do that on purpose? That was not on purpose. I'd been staring at it. And I was like, that looks wrong. It's gonna bother me. That's, that's all you need to know about where my brain is at right now. They are the Titans. They are the Titans. Unbelievable. What are you watching the first month of the season with the Tennessee tie-and-stay? Well, let's just keep that trend going because I was critical of the free agent additions. This just felt very much like a team that spent a money on B players, like $70 million for Juan Del Robinson, $58 million for Alante Taylor, $45 million for Cordell Flot. I just mentioned at least a couple of New York giants. And has this worked? Exactly. They're starting centers also from the New York giant center Bell thing about Daniel, Daniel Belinger is hanging out here, like look through the depth chart and you'll, you'll remember some guys from the last four years of New York Giants football. I will say I'll try to be charitable and say I'm willing to keep an open mind at least. And that's why it's something I'm watching in the first month of the season. Juan Del Robinson, even if I don't find him a super exciting addition, he's a reliable guy that can probably be a steadying presence in the slot for cam ward. And even if it, you know, thinking about, it reminds me of what we said about Khalil Shakir in the AFC East preview where it's like, well, what are you getting like in terms of explosives and where are we finding these big plays? I care about that less for cam ward because we're just trying to get to a stable floor for the offense. Like we're just trying to look consistent and respectable. So maybe Juan Del Robinson can be better in that regard than I give him credit for. Maybe these cornerbacks, if Jeffrey Simmons and some of the other front players that we talked about are on their stuff, maybe that looks better. So in the first month of the season, I just want to see, do I feel about these big money additions that the Giants paid a money for B players? And this was a mistake. Or can these guys do more than I'm giving them credit for? And I think for me, the line is like, I think we all understand they, they overpaid for all of these players. I mean, it's the name of the game, but I think we don't want to be in Halloween being like already looking at over the cab being like, how can we get out of this? I think you at least want to be like, that's a mini, what a success. Yeah, yeah, we overpaid, but at least Juan Del Robinson is doing something for us. At least Juan Lante Taylor is a good nickel for us. When I say when is this worked out, I more mean on a sustainable level when when we see teams throw this type of money around, even in the best case scenario, we've talked a lot about the 2017 Jags on this show in a way that can't even believe, but in the best case scenario, you get a 2017 Jag season where you spend all of this money and you had this massive leap. They go to the ASC championship game and then it fell apart immediately. And that's often what happens. And so even if we know that that you probably can't build the team this way, you will need a combination of car and I'll take in Keldrick Falk to start lifting you in order to be a good team over time. You can still have it be one year where you realize the benefits of spending that way. So for this year, even if we understand they're not prudent financial decisions over a multi-year period and they speak to a lack of underlying roster talent, can the microwaving work? That I do. I'm open to that fact that that could be true. I came around pretty easily on the idea of Wondell Robinson being an important player for camwords development that in a year or two, you're like, okay, now what's the next thing? But he could be very useful and productive on this version of the Titans. And that is worthwhile. How do you think we all want camwords to succeed so badly? Do we just think camwords is cool? He's cool as f***ing. That's perfectly reasonable answer, but it's like you can feel it oozing out of all of us. Why do we want this so bad? Why are you sitting there spending time idly? I can just imagine you on the couch looking at the Titans depth chart being like, man, Wondell just really gives camword like a reliable underneath option. He really needs that. Like we're talking about him like he's our child and like we're watching him play football. Why is that? He might just be because he's s*** cool six, six times on any camword tape. He does something that like very few people can do even at this level of football. That might sound hyperbolic, but some of the throws he made last year are just completely insane. He's a springy thrower. I enjoy watching him throw the football. And also he needs to clean some of it up. Don't get me wrong. Anyway, the preseason play is ridiculous, but there's a nonchalance to the way he does it. That is just incredibly fun and mixing those two things together. It's just enticing and I won't give up. And that's how I wind up thinking Wondell Robinson is going to have a great year for the 2026 Titans. We'll save my camword. My what I'm watching was camword related, but we'll talk about that with what's keeping us up in that. What is your, what are you watching over the first month of the season here, Derek? Mine is for the second year in a row. And this offensive line get off the ground. And I like Pierce Gronski, I think it really has really become come into his own as a really good player. JC Latham, I'm still like holding a candle that he can be a really good player. And I think you saw some of those moments, even in the preseason, I know it's the preseason for a third of your player, but I think I was pretty high on that Austin Schlotman. I know he made the joke that he's coming over from the New York Giants, but that is like, you hope just passable veteran play. And then Fernando Carmona, the rookie by guard, who's the fifth round pick, he did look pretty nice in the preseason. And I have like, you know, again, you don't want to put too much expectations on him, but he at least the fact that they felt good enough about him that they could just cut Cordel Wilson, who I think was there. If we have to start him guy, I do think that that makes you feel a little bit better about it. And then the offensive line coach, they bring in, I think his name is Carmen Brasillo. That is his name. He was their offensive line coach with the Giants. And like that Giants offensive line did get a lot better over the two years that he was there. He was a really good offensive line coach. The way that guys have played under him compared to where they played elsewhere, Jermaine Illuminar is the best possible example of this. Jermaine Illuminar was a afterthought in free agency and is getting paid real money because of how he's played with the Giants. They've done a great job. And he's somebody that I didn't realize, sir, in conversation with a couple other coaches this year. And I brought his name up and they were just like, oh, he's the real deal. And I was like, oh man, like I just didn't realize that he had that sort of curating a mom, the coaching world, but I very highly regarded as a coach. And like Illuminar was the big one. And another one I think too, like they brought in John Runyon to play guard for them. And that to me is one of those signings where it's like guy who was like a mid-level player kind of on and off the bench for the package. Those are signings that can go pretty wrong, pretty fast. Ecosystems. And he was totally thought for them. Yeah. And the way you drop him into. Yes, exactly. And he was the fact that they've got that. I thought you meant Runyon was in Tennessee and I was like, God, Dale, another child. They'd be happy, that would be really funny. - Oh my god, you're really funny. - Rather than banking on a 55. which who knows that might be fine, but you're really asking for a lot of your offensive line coach. And I do think that that's another part of this. I think if you look that from the outside, and maybe you weren't aware of what his track record looks like, you'd say, oh, man, they lost Bill Callahan. What is that going to be? I think they're going to be just fine with that change over the rest of the offensive staff. We could talk about the offensive line coach specifically. I do feel good about that. My what I'm watching over the first month is camward related. We're going to have that conversation. I think here in a second, Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the 2026 Tennessee Titans? What if all the sick ass throws in the world don't make camward a viable NFL quarterback? It's putting a really fine point on it. Yeah. I looked this up. Monk quarterbacks who have attempted at least 150 passes since 2020. Cam's 2025 season in EPA per dropback only finished above Zach Wilson, Shedur Sanders, Dylan Gabriel, Bryce Young, and Spencer Aller. His success rate narrowly edged out will live us, will live us in addition to the guys I already mentioned, like pretty, pretty bottom of the barrel stuff. I'll give you one. First 17 games, EPA per dropback, per true media, wedged between JJ McCarthy and Dishon Kaiser. Not good. JJ McCarthy, who like, we were talking about maybe he might get cut from this Viking steam and to show him Kaiser who is on, does the only 16 browns year. Some rough numbers with camwards were here. You know what, for as much as I love camward, Kaiser is not a bad comparison because Kaiser's three best throws a game were f***ed. Don't say the Titans fans are running for the hells right now. The other difference with Kaiser, Kaiser like had talked about on a podcast that he did not love football that much. I'm not worried about that with camward at all. I think that there are other other elements. There are other elements that make me feel significantly better about camward than I would have about Dishon Kaiser. But just in terms of like guy who the arm is incredible and makes two really cool throws a game, but the rest is like a really shaky. That was just recoil. I think reek, just recoil. Stared like side. I think it will be a lot better than that. But like when you are down with a lot of those other quarterbacks, like most of the quarterbacks who live in that world of how bad the EPA per dropback was, they don't come out of it. You get the Alex Smith every now and then you get the Jared Gough every now and then for the most part, those guys end up being pretty doomed. And again, I think camward is talented enough. And if you want to have some coping about it, the only guys that really do climb out of it are the first overall pick. Jared Gough and Alex Smith both first overall picks. Alex Smith is a very good example. Jared Gough is, but I think Jared Gough is the more telling example. We've seen this happen where Jared Gough, I thought Caleb Williams in their Trevor Lawrence, the guys who have climbed out of that sort of rookie year, a lot of them have had massive improvements in offensive infrastructure. They have gotten paired with the guy who has helped change the trajectory of their careers. Do we think Brian Dable is going to be that for camward? Because I have serious concerns about that kind of stuff and that is what is keeping me up at night. Can I ask a different question that is sort of on that path? We were just talking about Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Is there a chance Brian Dable can be like Doug Petersonish? Where it gets off the ground for a little bit. And this is not the long term answer for that. Actually, it might be a good comparison. Get him off the ground enough that we feel good about the long term runway that like, okay, this still needs some improvements. But you see enough where you're like, yes, that's of course that's why he was the first overall pick. Did you see enough with the giants over the last few years for you to believe that could be true? I'm not sure I did. And my other concern with this and I brought this up that they will often just really only ever worked when the guy can run camward is not a runner like that. Like he's mobile and he has good escape ability. But in the same way that like Baker is an escapeable guy, but you don't run him. Like I think that like that is kind of where I put camward. I understand what you're saying. I also think a way of framing that is the Dable Offense is only worked when Josh Allen was the quarterback. That is another good way to put it. It only worked when they had a super hero at court. And I know you're talking about the 22 giants, which even that was it was so weird as offense. I can remember that was an offense that you can't do year over year. No, it was that works one is going to say it theoretically worked. It was a remarkable coaching job. I was incredibly impressed. But then when they've had to expand beyond that in any way, it never came into focus. Never. And so that's part of it with me is that I just don't know if this is the right crew to get this thing done. I just don't know how much faith I have in it. Like you look at I didn't say this in the moment. We were talking about the Cowboys, but I wanted to and this is a good time bring it up. One of the reasons I'm so enthusiastic about the direction that Dallas has taken is that you look at the staff and every choice they made about how they built the staff over the last two year, two off seasons combined has been who's the right guy? Who's the best guy? Not who do I know? Who did I work with? Who's the best guy to have this job? And I think if you look at other teams that have done that Seattle is the best case example of this. Mike McDonald hired Aiden Dirt A to be his defense of coordinator. They never met before. He walked into the interview. He impressed him. And he felt like a guy that was a really good compliment to what Mike maybe didn't have quite as much. He was a player's player-centric coach. His ability to connect with guys. What his presence felt like at the front of the room. And you have those puzzle pieces that fit together. That didn't that hasn't happened here. Right. It happened. And the places where that's happening, I think, is conducive to success. Gus Bradley is the defensive coordinator for this team. Right. And like Jeff Olberg is not here in a way that he was when he was with the Jets. There's just so much of this that just feels a little easy and a little stale. And it seeps out whatever enthusiasm I might have for their ability to pull this thing out of a tailspin. And I think kind of to that same point, I think with some of those coaches, you worry about like, okay, if they come over, are they really going to retrofit this thing to the best ability to the players on hand? Or is it going to be their offense? And would they be able to look at the moves that may be off season? And to the table, I'm extremely worried that it will be his offense. And I think specifically for Cam Ward, let me ask you this, both of you guys. Who should Cam Ward play like in the NFL as a quarterback? In my mind, it's like somewhere along the like 23 Baker Mayfield, like Jordan Love, like we are chucking it as a dropback passer. I was thinking of a charm of Lawrence. Yeah. Over the second half of his rookie season. And would I expect this offense to be now? It's a lot shorter A dot. It's a lot more RPO. It's a lot more quick game. I'm like, that's not, that's not why you grabbed him. That's how we're asking him to do that. Yeah. Funny that we would wind up in a similar place as the guy we were just talking about 40 minutes ago. And how long it took the Jags to put him into a situation that felt conducive to his skill set. I could do, I could do Jordan Love too. I could do myself into that. But again, that's, that's what Jordan Love is doing. He gets nothing like what I would do. I would take that even further. I think Jordan Love, if dropped in game one of his career, would probably look a lot like Cam Ward did last year. Yes, he probably would. I think that that is absolutely a perfect way to put it. And again, Jordan, the reason part of why Jordan Love works, he gets a year on the bench and an incredible ecosystem. Can we're got neither of those things? I was about to say something really, really fatalistic and mean. Oh, no. Are we already in a place where we're just going to be thinking about where Cam Ward has to rectify, like resurrect his career in three years. I refuse. I refuse. Even if, even if there's reason to feel that way, I hope not. I can't, I can't do that. We can't, we can't pull the car. I'll cross that bridge when I get there. We can't pull the plug before we've even seen him play. I don't want to do that. But he is the perfect candidate for something like that. If it doesn't work out here, I'd promise you some of you would talk themselves into Cam Ward in a few years. It's also, it's, it's very instructive to bring up the history with guys like Jared Goff and obviously you get into these, you get into such an inviable infrastructure between coaching and the personnel. Hopefully, Brian Dable can just get Cam Ward to a baseline similar to like what I'm talking about with Juan Del Robinson. If the Titans are like the 21st offense in the league this year, screw it. The 24th offense in the league this year and Cam Ward just looks passable. That is a step in the right direction to the point where you can start to think about a future with Cam Ward and it doesn't have to mean Brian Dable is going to be the OC for the next five or six years. So no, I'm not already thinking that way. I want to at least see what this looks like with a guy who's played 17 games. I understand it's ridiculous thing to say, but it is a. It is a thought. Yeah, Colonel's into your mind. It's like, I don't think it's unreasonable. It was mostly a product of how many quarterbacks that we've seen if he does flame out, how many quarterbacks with this level of talent are just heading out there and it's like, because of thought is if Jordan love had never wand up in Green Bay, what does Jordan loves career look like? Yeah. And like Sam Arnold, like these guys that are really talented that never found the right circumstance, it takes a second chance to get the most out of them. And I hope here I'll do this way. I hope we don't end up in that place with Cam Ward. That's all you can do at this point. Although the the jokes about cronism with personnel are just funny. Like the memes where people say like Brian Dable, what if I hired all the guys who got me fired? Like that's funny. But when you think about it in terms of the ideas coming into the building, that unsettles me deeply. Like if you're making easy familiar hires, and this is the guys that Robert Salah identified in his second stop, and it's just not very inspiring that unsettled me a lot. I think that's to me, it's a through line of how really good teams operate. And like even the teams that and again, I think the Cowboys and the Sioxes, there's another parallel with they made a familiar easy choice with one of the coordinators going into year one. because it's year one of a first time head coach. They realized very quickly that was incorrect and then went through an incredibly thorough process to make sure they're hiring the right guy the second time around. - I can't believe that we're talking about the Cowboys as an example of what to do. But that's why it feels different. - Life ends at success. - All right, Derek, what is success for the 2026 Titans? - Pretty much what we were just talking about, but not feeling that way. - Not feeling like this is the end and that we have to like scrap anything or do we want to move on. Think if you feel like if you make again, we can talk about whatever the long-term ramifications for signing these defensive players are, but if the defense is microwaved correctly and we feel like Cam Ward should absolutely continue to be the quarterback moving forward, that's enough. - Yeah. - Be a pain in the ass to play. Cam Ward looks good. Salah has the effect you hope he can on the defense. You know the Titans have finished with a bottom three-point differential the last two years. They had a worse point differential than the Raiders. - That's not surprising. - It's surprising to me, the Raiders are the team we always use as the benchmark for ineptitude. They picked number one in the draft. I thought at least the time and especially, there were a few like cool Cam Ward games. I was surprised to go back and see that they had a worse point differential than the 2025 Raiders. So have a normal point differential. Even if you win like five or six games but you're scrappy, pain in the ass team to play and people don't just write the W next to your name before the game even starts, that would be a step in the right direction. - Write the ship with Cam Ward. Have Salah prove that he's a serious defensive difference maker. - Simple, that's it. All right. That is all we've got for the Titans and for the AFC pre-AFC South preview. We'll be back tomorrow with the NFC North. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.