1129: 15 Transactions for Week 3

This is an iHeart podcast, guaranteed human. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and match-up trends into one clear weekend preview? Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal, plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans. It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline, or workflow. You can keep shaping. You stay in control, reviewing the work, and choosing the final result. Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatgbt.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plans. Game day calls for a winning lineup, and Applebee's has you covered. The new, cravable, OM-cheese idea burger is now available on the 2 for 25 menu. It's a juicy burger wrapped inside a cheesy quesadilla, served on a skillet of queso with crispy tortilla chips. Trust. If it arrives at the table, you'll have a hard time resisting the pull. The Applebee's 2 for 25 menu offers abundant value, cravable portions, and great variety at an unbeatable price. Choose one full-size appetizer in two full-size entrees for only $25. Hurry in. Before this limited time offer is gone. Act's gratuity, beverage, and dessert are not included. What's up everyone, it's JJ Zacharyson, and this episode 1129 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get to this week's transactions, if you'd like this list directly to your email inbox, there's a solution for that. The Late Round newsletter. The newsletter is absolutely free, just at thelateround.com and sign up. You get the data dump in your inbox on Monday morning, this transactions list on Tuesday morning, an awesome match-ups column from Brandon Godoula, and there's a wrap-up email from David Kitchen at the end of every week. So check it out, sign up for absolutely free, lateround.com. Add Jonah Coleman. So JK Dobbins now has a hamstring injury. The Broncos are saying that he's "good" but who knows with a hamstring injury and who knows with JK Dobbins. Meanwhile, RJ Harvey, he also has a hammy injury. So Jonah Coleman could all of a sudden be in line for a lot of work in week 3. After Dobbins left this past Sunday, Coleman saw an 83% snap share and he had 80% of Denver's rushes. For when it's worth on his eight rush attempts, he had a 50% success rate. I thought he'd at least look the part. Now as many of you know, Coleman was a target of mine this summer, both in rookie drafts and in season long drafts, because I think it's a solid do-it-all back. There are three main production inputs in the Zat model, which is my prospect model. Best season, pro-rated reception share, adjusted total yards per team play, and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. And this is for running backs. And those adjustments for the record, they count for age and they count for strength of opponent. Within those three categories, Coleman ranked in the 72nd, the 49th, and the 88th percentiles. According to PFF data, he was 89th percentile and avoided tackles per attempt. So this is all to say, it was a weaker running back class, but I do think that Jonah Coleman was a good running back in that class. He's at the most explosive back in the world, but he can get tough yards and he can play every down. And now he might have some opportunity. So if Dobbins missed his time, if Harvey's still limited, this could be the start of something big for Jonah Coleman. By Drake London. It's honestly hard to talk about the Falcon's offense because they've been that bad to start the season. It's been a disaster. And Drake London managers, you're probably not feeling that great. He's seen a 19% target share through two games. Jahan Dodson has more than double his area arts. But what if I told you that Michael Penix? He has a chance to solve a lot of our Drake London problems. Let's enter the league in 2024. Since the start of that season with Penix under center, London's average 0.63 PPR points per route run and 2.99 yards per route run. And he's seen a target on almost 34% of his routes. Without Penix under center, those numbers dropped dramatically. London's PPR points per route run falls from 0.63 to 0.43, that's a 32% decrease. His yards per route run goes from 2.99 with Penix to 1.91 without him. His target per route run rate goes from 33.6% to 25.6%. Now with Michael Penix returning, it doesn't mean the Falcon's offense is all of a sudden going to be amazing. I'm sure it's going to take a minute for him to get acclimated. There's obvious risk here and buying into Drake London. But I do think based on history, there's a chance he could turn things around pretty quickly with Michael Penix under center. So if you want to take a shot on a high upside player, one with some risk, there's no doubt there's risk here. I think Drake London makes a lot of sense given the way that he started this season. Add Denzel Boston. This is a repeat transaction from last week, but I think it needs to be repeated. Denzel Boston is still available in nearly 70% of Yahoo Leagues. Right now, he's tied with KC Concepts Yone with 11 targets this year. But he's seeing more valuable looks in that offense after two games. His average of target is almost 16 yards. He's generated 12.3 expected PPR points per game compared to Concepts Yone's 9.6. Now just to be clear, Boston is outperforming that expectation by roughly five PPR points per game. He's not going to keep this up if he continues to see this kind of usage. And my prospect evaluation work said that KC Concepts Yone was the better prospect. We can't ignore a couple of things happening in Cleveland. Number one, the Browns are likely going to be playing from behind this season, even with what happened in week two. That should create more passing volume. But number two, guys, DeShon Watson has not been that bad. He's 16th in fantasy points per dropback, he's top 20 right now, and EPA per dropback. Maybe it doesn't continue, but right now, it's not like he's Cooper Rush. When rookies produce, and more importantly, when they're seeing strong peripherals underneath that production, you don't want to ignore it. So Boston should be on way more rosters. Add Emmanuel Wilson. So generic and price left Sundays game in the fourth quarter, with what was initially a chest injury, but they've said it's a shoulder injury. Fortunately, X-rays were negative. But there's at least some chance that you can miss some time. Under price left against the Cardinals, the Seahawks really leaned on Emmanuel Wilson. He saw 76% snap share in the fourth quarter, he handled two-thirds of the team's rush attempts, and he carried the ball 12 times just in the fourth quarter. He was sprinkled in the offense before that, though, too. Over the first three quarters, he had a 41% rush share, generic and price is at 59%. Wilson's definitely the short yardage back on this team, at the very least. But obviously, if Jadarian price is out, he's going to see a little bit more work on the ground. But unfortunately, he's just not running many routes. He had just a 15% route share in week 2. So if price does miss any time, we're just looking at an early down runner in a Drew Locke-led offense. But fortunately, in week 3, they get the Washington commanders, so Emmanuel Wilson could be usable. Buy Josh Downs. So the market's understandably going to boost Josh Downs with Alec Pierce week to week with that heel injury. I'm just probably going to be more bullish. Pierce's injury on Sunday night came in the first quarter. From that point forward, Downs had an 83% route share. More importantly, he wasn't just a slot receiver. He ran 42% of his routes from the outside. For the record, Downs has just two games his entire career with a snap share above 60% and a perimeter route rate above 40%. And in week 2, he commanded a lot of targets in that role. After Pierce left, he saw a 36% target share and 42% of his routes resulted in a target. Those are incredible numbers. That type of target earning ability is not that new for Josh Downs. Among wider receivers with 300 or more routes run since 2016, he has a 90 second percentile targets per out run rate. He's just needed more opportunity, and that's exactly why I'm interested in what this could look like. The fantasy football masses are going to elevate Downs this week. There's no doubt. But because he has a history of being viewed as mostly a slot player, I'm not sure the market will fully account for what this role might look like without Alec Pierce. And look, maybe Sunday night, maybe just one game thing. But we already know that Downs can earn targets at a really high rate. If he can maintain that high route share while playing more on the perimeter, maybe we have a different fantasy ceiling for Josh Downs this year, which is why he was a target in the late round draft guide in the first place. Because the Alec Pierce health situation, it was very much up in the air entering the season. So I'm willing to bet on Josh Down's talent to find out. Add Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley. Seiko and Barkley suffered a stinger in week 2. He had just 10 offensive snaps for the Eagles. Now Tank Bigsby was typically picked as the handcuff to Barkley. And he probably is still the preferred choice if Barkley were to miss any time. But Will Shipley's played a bigger role to start this season in that offense and I think any of us expected. A lot of that's come through the passing game. Shipley had a 57% route share compared to Bigsby's 17% against the Titans. And keep in mind, in week 1, Shipley ran as many routes as Barkley did. despite the huge discrepancy and their snap. In the end, Shipley played 38 snaps in week 2 to Bigsbee's 24. Bigsbee though, had a 41% rush share to Shipley's 22%. And Bigsbee got the gold line carry. That gives us a pretty good idea of how this backfield would probably operate without Saquon Barkley. Bigsbee would likely handle more of the early down work, more of the gold line work, Shipley more involved as a receiver. So I would probably prioritize Bigsbee because the Eagles could take more of a ground and pound approach in week 3 against the bears. He's the less volatile choice. But Shipley's not a bad value off the waiver wire. I'm sure there's going to be a lot more spent on Bigsbee than Will Shipley. I just wouldn't expect either player to just completely take over that backfield. By Tucker Craft. We knew it was going to take a minute for Tucker Craft to really get going this year. He was coming off that ACL tear. In week 1, Crafts had a 48% route share. He was able to turn that into a 15% target share though. He saw a target on over 27% of his route's run. For context in 2025 when he was dominating fantasy football, he saw a target on roughly 22% of his route's run. Then this past week, Crafts target share fell to just 10%. That's not good. But his route share jumped all the way up to 78%. Remember what we talked about last week on the mailbag episode early on in the season with tight ends in particular? We should care a lot about route share. At this point in the season right now, route share matters more at tight end than target share does. And Crafts route share in week 2 was actually higher than his route share in 2025. So we've seen the target earning ability and we've seen the route participation now. We just haven't seen them really happen in the same game yet. Jaden reads now banged up. The Packer's defense doesn't look amazing and they haven't been able to get much going with their run game. So I'd expect that production for Tucker Craft to start coming soon. Add Add 9 Mitchell. So after two games, 80 Mitchell has one more target than Garrett Wilson. He saw 70% of New York's air yards in week 2. He finished the day with 19.4 expected PPR points. Omar Cooper's sideline with that ankle injury, that should continue to open up opportunities for 80 Mitchell. And the Jets over their next two games, they get the Lions and the Bears to very beatable defenses. At this level of usage, Mitchell has a chance to be plenty usable in fantasy football. Sell Amari and Hampton. So look, I talked about the chargers last week and I said they were just a hold. I didn't want to overreact to week 1. After two games though, I'm a little bit scared about this offense. Actually, I'm very scared about this offense because week 2 wasn't very inspiring. After a terrible week 1. That McConkey has been unreal important to this offense for the first two weeks. When he's been on the field, the chargers are actually 7th in the NFL in EPA per play. When he's been off the field, the only team that's worse in that metric is Atlanta. The charger's offense without Lad McConkey, in terms of EPA per play, has only been better than the Cooper Rush-led Atlanta Falcons. Think about that for a second, it's crazy. The wide receiver room though is not the only problem. The interior offense of Lyne, that's a big problem too. On inside Rush's this year, chargers running max have had the 4th worst yards before contact per attempt in football. It's a little bit better on outside runs where they rank 23rd. Justin Herbert's not playing well either. It seems like any time this happens with the chargers, no one places the blame on Justin Herbert. Let's place the blame on Justin Herbert, at least some of it. He hasn't looked the part this year either. This all leads us to Amarie and Hampton. Hampton actually had a big week too. He carried the ball 23 times, he handled 72% of the charger's rush attempts. Unfortunately he had a costly fumble but usage wise, he had a top 10 game across the league and expected PPR points. That's especially impressive when you consider that no team in football has targeted its running backs at a lower rate than the chargers have through two weeks. Their running backs have combined for just a 5.6% target share. It's a little bump there, it could have been fireworks from a fantasy perspective for Amarie and Hampton this past week. But like I said in the column this week, I'm just going to read straight from it. Like Jesse Spano coming off of a caffeine pill high, I'm so scared. Hampton has a sub 30% route share across these first two games. And listen to this gauntlet of teams that the chargers are about to face. Three they get the bills and then it's the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens. The way the chargers are playing right now, positive game scripts are not very likely during that stretch. Neutral ones aren't even easy to bank on. And that's a big problem for Amarie and Hampton. When the chargers have trailed by seven or more points this season, Hampton has just played 50% of their offensive snaps. In a smaller sample, when they've trailed by double digit points, he's just been pushed to the bench. If this upcoming schedule creates more of those situations, we're going to see less Amarie and Hampton more than likely. But look, I don't think Hampton is like just totally dust. His week two workload certainly didn't look like that. But this upcoming stretch is going to be tough for his fantasy value. And he's coming off a performance in a world where everyone wants production, he's coming off a performance where he did produce. And your leg mates just might not be aware of all the risk involved moving forward with Amarie and Hampton. So I'd be looking to trade right now. Add a rendez-gaston. So look, I'm nervous about the chargers offense, but I do think that a rendez-gaston kind of intriguing this week. Charlie Kohler had a forearm injury, he was spotted in an arm sling on Sunday. Meanwhile, David and Joku, he was carted off with a knee injury, so the chargers are going to be forced to play a rendez-gaston, even if they don't want to play a rendez-gaston. In the second half against Vegas on Sunday, he had a 71% route share. That's a high-end number for a tight end, and it's a big jump from his 14% route share in week one. We saw Gaston put together worthwhile fantasy production as a rookie in 2025. Now with all these injuries around him, he might get an opportunity once again. That's enough to make him an ad. Ed Emmett Johnson. Emmett Johnson was a Zat model favorite during prospecting season. Going back to the three main production metrics that the model looks at for Running Max that I talked about earlier with Jonah Coleman, Johnson ranked in the 94th percentile in Best Season reception share, the 95th percentile on adjusted total yards per team play, and the 89th percentile in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempts. The knock on Johnson was his lack of speed and big playability. He had an explosive run rate in the 19th percentile according to PFF data. But we've now had multiple games where Emmett Johnson has stepped in for Kenneth Walker and the Chiefs offense still looks great, because Johnson himself looks great. I don't know if he's going to have a ton of standalone value without a Kenneth Walker injury, but Kenneth Walker is being used quite a bit in that backfield. So I think that Emmett Johnson right now is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football. We've been talking about him for a while, we talked about him last week, but he's still out there in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues. By Devon H.N. Now look, I love Devon H.N. the talent, I just didn't love his price this year, because the offensive environment was very scary. And so far through two games I feel good about that assessment, overall. But I gotta be honest, his workload is even better than I thought it was going to be. H.N. was a monster in fantasy football last year. The peripherals backed it up, hit a 75% snap share, a 56% rush share, a 72% route share, and a target on almost 24% of his route run. But his usage this year, those peripherals, have actually been better. His snap share is up to 82%. His rush share is 66%. His route share is essentially the same at 71%, and he's maintained his target's per-out run rate at 23.9%. So basically his snap share is increased, his rush share is increased, his route share, and his target's per-out run, they've remained the same. The difference is that last year, he scored 20.2 PPR points per game. He was breaking long runs and he was scoring touchdowns. Right now, he's at 11.5 PPR points per game. And obviously a big reason for this, if not all of the reason for this, is that the Miami offensive environment is just not very good. But again, we can't deny this usage. According to late-round fantasy football's model, Achan's expected PPR points per game right now sits at 17 points. And consider this, let's just assume that Achan maintains a 70% snap share and a 65% route share. That's it, just those two numbers. Since 2016, 17 running backs have hit both of those thresholds over a full season. All but one of those 17, finished with 19 or more PPR points per game. The loan exception was 2019 LaVion Bell. He carried the ball 245 times for a 3.2 yards per carry. Even he scored more than 14 PPR points per game. What this transaction is really all about, is just going against market sentiment. No one wants anything to do with this Miami offense, because it has not been good. But we have to be at least a little bit open-minded to some improvement. There's only been two weeks. With the type of usage at Achan seeing a little improvement in that offense can go a really long way. So if I'm you, I'm not breaking the bank to get Devon Achan. I'm trying to buy low, I'm trying to buy very low. is after not so long. great of a start for a production standpoint. But the usage is definitely there. Add Antonio Williams The fantasy football world understandably loves production. A week ago you'd find content all over the internet raving about Antonio Williams. He was coming off a rookie debut where he caught all four of his targets for 64 yards in a touchdown. And that was his first game as a pro. But we're seeing less of that in week two. Now it's probably because Jaden Daniels is her chore. But it's also because Williams didn't give us a usable fantasy performance against the Cowboys. He caught just three passes for 24 yards. But I was actually more encouraged by week two than I was week one. I talked about this on the 10 trends episode last week, but I liked Antonio Williams as a prospect. His top comp in the zap model was Lad Maconkey. After a strong week one, he was rewarded. His route shared jumped from 26% to 52%. He ran the same number of routes as Stefan Diggs against the Cowboys. And he played inside out. 50% of his routes came out wide. That's the kind of development that we should care about for a rookie wide receiver, even when the fantasy points don't immediately follow. But yeah, Jaden Daniels being out definitely a bummer. But if you want a longer term stash, someone who's already showing us some promise who could earn a bigger role, Williams definitely makes sense. But yeah, if you want some short term ad, you can get Rashad Bateman if you want to have Zay flowers a sideline again. But again, I think a lot of people are going to be quiet about Antonio Williams this week when they weren't last week. People might even drop him. Just know his peripherals were actually kind of encouraging. Add Bryce Young. I was not high enough on Bryce Young this past week. I knew he did it against the Falcons in the past, but I had a lot of concern about the potential back and forth in that game. And I was wrong. Bryce Young has been balling out through the first two weeks of the season. His EPA per dropback is six best among quarterbacks with 30 or more dropbacks this year. He trails only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy and fantasy points per dropback. And get this Carolina ranks first in the NFL right now and pass rate over expected. Now, I don't know if this is going to keep up. In fact, I would probably bank on this not keeping up, not to this degree. But the Panthers have decent weapons around Bryce Young. And they get the Browns and the Lions up next. So he could be a good fantasy quarterback at least through September. Add the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Chiefs are still available in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues and their ten-and-a-half point road favorites against the Dolphins this week. According to next-gen stats, Malik Willis has faced the third highest pressure rate in the league. He's also posted the third worst pressure to saccharate among quarterbacks. Kansas City's defense they've been about league average and pressure rate so far this year. But this is the matchup where that past rush should be able to get to Malik Willis. So it's a good spot to stream that Chiefs defense. We've got a bonus transaction this week and it's one that I'm really happy about. It's the ad Terrence Ferguson. Now, Pukka Nakuwa was sidelined in week two. That definitely helped Ferguson get more run in this Rams offense. He finished the day with six catches for 54 yards in a touchdown. What was more important here though was the usage. He had a 72% route share and a 30% target share. He saw a target on 39% of his route's run. Now, it doesn't sound like Pukka Nakuwa is going to be out that long. But if you miss another game, you know that Terrence Ferguson can be usable when that's the case. You know there's injury upside here. But what if this is the start to something bigger for Terrence Ferguson? That's why he's an ad this week. That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the late round fantasy football podcast, make sure you are messaging for it. Pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at late round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode game day calls for a winning lineup and Applebee's has you covered the new cravable o m cheese idea burger is now available on the two for 25 menu. 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