1121: 15 Transactions for Week 1

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It's identity theft protection for the life you are building. Get LifeLock at LifeLock.com. Use the code FOOTBALL for up to 30% off your first year. That's LifeLock.com, code FOOTBALL, because isn't your identity worth protecting? This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharysen. J.J. Zacharysen. What's up, everyone? It's J.J. Zacharysen. And in this episode, 1121 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. After a draft season filled with ups and downs, we're just getting started. The NFL season kicks off this week, which means we're now moving into the in-season Late Round Podcast schedule. And that schedule, it's the same that it's been in recent years. Every Tuesday morning, you can expect this 15 Transactions episode. This is where I talk about players to add, drop, buy, and sell in your leagues. On Wednesday, it's 10 Trends. That one's pretty self-explanatory, I talk about 10 fantasy football trends that can help you with roster management. Thursday's the Sleeper Show. That's where I talk about players who aren't heavily rostered, but they've got intriguing matchups. You may be able to start some of them in your league if you're in a pinch. Friday, we have two episodes that drop. One's a mailbag episode. The other one is an episode of Late Round Perspectives. Expect the mailbag to hit your podcast feeds in the early morning, and then perspectives in the early afternoon. We also are doing the Late Round Fantasy Football Show every Friday at 1 p.m. Eastern on YouTube. Myself and David Kitchen will talk through news, some data, players I'm higher or lower on that week versus consensus, a look-ahead waiver wire segment, some bold predictions, and more. That will then drop into the podcast feed on Saturday morning. So that alone is six episodes per week. I also do the Data Dump on Twitter and on Blue Sky every Monday morning, and that also gets sent via the Late Round Newsletter. And speaking of which, a brand new Data Dump YouTube show is coming in just a few weeks to that same day. Same YouTube channel. Where every Monday, Brandon Gadula and David Kitchen, they're going to go through some usage data to help you guys out with your teams. That's on youtube.com slash at late round FF. That's going to start in just a few weeks. And then obviously, if you're a Late Round member, you'll also receive weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, and a Q&A live stream each week. Along with plenty of other perks like the Late Round Discord. You can learn more all about that on lateround.com. So yeah, it's a grind. There's a lot of work to be done this season, but I am really excited for it. I'll get stuff right. I'll get stuff wrong. But hopefully, in the end, it all leads to the same place, and that's a fantasy football championship. So with all that being said, let's get to the first transaction of this 2026 season. Add Malik Willis. Usually on the 15 Transactions show, you're going to find lower-rostered quarterbacks than this one. But with drafts just finishing, there aren't many passers that are readily available. Willis, according to Yahoo, is still available in nearly 60% of leagues, despite having legitimate top 10 upside in fantasy this year. He averaged 11.8 rushing points per game in his three starts with the Packers. We know that he can bring it with his legs. And if he can get to even 7 rushing points per game this season, there could be something there because since 2011, only 25 quarterbacks have thrown the ball 300 or more times while averaging at least 7 rushing points per game. 22 of those 25 passers finish as top 10 fantasy options in points per game. Some of you may be wondering, some of you might be listening to this and you're just like, this is another Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson type player. And maybe that's the case. But even if it is, over the last four years, Richardson and Fields rank as top 7 quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback among passers with 200 or more dropbacks. Malik Willis, for the record, ranks 5th. We don't know what Malik Willis is exactly as a thrower. And yeah, he doesn't have great weapons there in Miami. But we can't deny this potential upside. And it also doesn't hurt that the Dolphins open up their season against the Raiders and then the 49ers, two teams that could provide favorable matchups for fantasy quarterbacks this year. By Luther Burden. Anyone's saying that there's not risk with Luther Burden, they're lying. There's definitely risk. We've never seen him as a true full-time player. He didn't hit a 70% route share in a single game last year. We have to admit that we're doing some projecting if we're leaning into Luther Burden. But I'm fine with that. Burden's price did fall a little bit due to that groin injury that he suffered in camp. But his status in the game in week one looks good. He's back at practice. But genuinely, I think Luther Burden has a chance to be special in fantasy football. First as a prospect, he had an elite zap score. It's rare for non-round one wide receivers to fall into the elite producer category in that model. But Burden didn't just get there. He comfortably got there. And there's nothing that he did as a rookie that really shifted my already high opinion of Burden. He had the third best yards per route run rate of any first year wide receiver with 100 or more routes run since 2011. And he came back and came on strong towards the end of the season. From week 11 through 17, week 11 through the end of the fantasy season. Burden ranked 10th in targets per outrun, second in yards per outrun, and fifth in PPR points per outrun among all relevant wide outs in football. Maybe Burden doesn't check the traditional wide receiver boxes that Roma Dunze checks. But I think he fits this offense perfectly. Ben Johnson is the master schemer. He can get guys open in space. And Burden's incredible after the catch. In fact, in college, he had a 98th percentile avoided tackles force per reception rate and his yards after the catch per reception ranked in the 84th percentile. Look, the bottom line here, a lot of people say we can't buy into Luther Burden because we haven't seen it yet. If we waited for elite production to hit with players, we would never be able to find discounts on these breakouts. Burden, to me, has a legit shot to become a stud. But I also think his floor is kind of underrated given the offensive environment that he's in. Add Dontavian Wicks. I think Mekhi Lemon will eventually be the number two wide receiver in Philly this year. But it's probably not going to happen right away. He missed a lot of camp, he didn't play well in the preseason, and he's probably going to feel most comfortable right away out of the slot. So enter Dontavian Wicks. I don't think he's a bad player. He entered the league in 2023 and since then, he has a 71st percentile yards per outrun rate, a 76th percentile PPR points per outrun rate, and an 81st percentile targets per outrun rate. That's among all wide receivers with 200 or more routes run over that time frame. What if he just needed a change of scenery? Or what if he just needed more opportunity to see a higher route share? The efficiency has been there. And the early season schedule is not that bad either. Philly opens up against the Commanders, then the Titans, and then the Bears. Those are three teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in PFF's preseason secondary rankings. The Commanders and Titans, they're both bottom three. So adding Dontavian Wicks off the waiver wire makes a ton of sense. He's on a lot of my teams right now. Sell Trey McBride. Look, Trey McBride has been my tight end too throughout the summer. But my overall ranking of him was much lower than ADP. He was going way too close to Brock Bowers in my opinion. And honestly, the reason for this, it just comes down to math. McBride ran 120 more routes than any other tight end last year. And actually, he ran 100 more routes than any tight end in a single season since at least 2016. It's just going to be really difficult to sustain that kind of volume. Had McBride merely tied for the most routes run of the position last year, at his.46 PPR points per route run rate, he would have scored over three fewer points per game. He still would have had a good year, don't get me wrong. It just wouldn't have been as special as it was last year. And I'm not even factoring in McBride's 18 end zone targets, the second most by a tight end since 2016. Or that his points per route run rate was 11% lower when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field with him last season. As we know, Marv missed some time due to injury. The competition for targets in Arizona is not easy to beat out. The Cardinals have a tough schedule this year, and they're projected to be one of the worst offenses in the league according to every single sportsbook. Add in the volume regression that's likely coming, there's a lot working against Trey McBride repeating that performance year over year, or even coming close. So that's why I have him as a sell. Add Devon Valle. Jordan Tyson's on IR. The Saints' wide receiver room, they only have four guys. It's Chris Alave, it's Devon Valle, Bryce Lance, and Barry and Brown. Those last two guys are rookies. We might see something with those rookies eventually. But to start the season, I think we're going to see a lot of Devon Valle. And that's actually kind of intriguing. Rashid Shahid left the Saints after Week 9 last year, and that's when Valle started seeing a lot more work in that offense. After failing to hit a 50% route share in a single game through Week 9, he hit at least an 80% route share and all four games following that, trade, and then he went down with a season-ending injury. In those four games, though, Vele posted a 1.64 yards per route run rate while seeing a target on nearly 20% of his routes. Those are pretty strong numbers. They're at least decent. During that stretch, his.33 PPR points per route run rate was only.06 points behind Chris Alave. And the opening month schedule for the Saints is pretty awesome. They get Detroit in week one. That could be a great matchup. Then they get Baltimore, Vegas, and Atlanta. The Ravens are really the only spot where Vele could be limited. So if you're in a deep league, you need some baseline production from a wide receiver, I think Vele could deliver. Add Tajay Spears. This transaction, it's a little bit pro-Tajay Spears, but it's also anti-Tony Pollard. Spears has been a reliable pass catcher over the last few years. He's hit a 12% target share in that Titans offense. He actually ranks 10th in running back target share over the last three seasons. So that's a big plus for his fantasy profile. And Tony Pollard has not been that efficient of a pass catcher over the last few years. He's been below a.8 yards per route run rate. That can be predictive of future receiving success. Not only that, but in 2025, Pollard went from a near 65% route share with Spears sidelined during the first month of the season to a 39% share with Spears active. So it's clear that Spears was taking away pass catching work. But sure, there's a new coaching staff in Tennessee. Maybe they go a different direction with his backfield. But when you look at the preseason, all this was only reinforced. Spears actually played more snaps with Cam Ward than Tony Pollard did. And that was both overall and on early downs. Now that might be nothing. It might just be noise. But it's at least something to keep an eye on. And on a team like Tennessee, where they could see a lot of negative game scripts, that could lean more in Spears' direction. So I think it makes sense to have Spears on your bench just to see how they're backfield ends up being split. And he's still out there in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues. By Christian Watson. We've been waiting for more of a full-time role for Christian Watson. Since he entered the league four years ago among wide receivers with 10 or more games played, Watson's route share ranks 95th. But his yards per route run rate ranks in the top 20. His first downs per route run rate is in the top 30. And he's commanded targets per route run at a top 50 pace. Things were even better when you only look at 2025. It was probably the best season of his career. Watson ranked 5th in yards per route run, and he saw a top 30 targets per route run rate too. The biggest issue is that his route share placed him outside the top 60 wide receivers. Simple usage has always been an issue in Green Bay. That and the fact that over the last three years, they've been bottom three in pass attempts. But this wide receiver room is shallower. Dontavian Wicks is gone. Romeo Dobbs is gone. We could end up seeing, like, a career-high route share for Christian Watson this year. And Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Jordan Love has been one of the league's most efficient passers by EPA per dropback over the last couple of seasons. You don't think they could lean more into the pass this year with Jacobs sidelined? And their opening schedule looks great. They get the Vikings in week one, followed by the Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bears, Cowboys, and Lions. That's a healthy mix of poorly ranked secondaries and potential shootouts. So you might want to consider Christian Watson, before it's too late. Add Jonah Coleman. It might take a minute for Jonah Coleman to be fantasy relevant. But in a lot of leagues, he's a player worth stashing. Ahead of Coleman on this depth chart is an oft-injured J.K. Dobbins and the second-year back R.J. Harvey. R.J. Harvey struggled between the tackles last year. He was a good pass catcher, but he was not great on the ground. He ranked towards the bottom of the league and rushing yards over expected per rush. Coleman was a successful do-it-all back out of Washington. He was a good pass catcher, but he was not great on the screen. According to the ZAP model, he had a 72nd percentile best season reception share, and he had an 88th percentile adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt rate. The pass catching numbers were there, and those are predictive for NFL success. But he also looked good on the ground. His avoided tackles per attempt, according to PFF data, 89th percentile. His yards after contact per attempt, also 89th percentile. But like I said, we might have to wait a little bit for Coleman to get work in this offense. But I thought he was an undervalued prospect, because he was a bad running back class. He could realistically back up both Dobbins and Harvey. There are multiple injury-related paths to more playing time for Coleman. Or he could just play himself into a role. So if your bench allows for it, I think he's a great stash. And he's still out there in about two-thirds of leagues. Add Kenyon Sadiq. Sadiq missed training camp in the preseason because of a sports hernia issue. And that led to fantasy managers completely forgetting about him during their drafts. And it's kind of crazy to me. It's been crazy to me all summer, especially in best ball leagues. Because Sadiq was a mid-first round pick who had one of the best NFL combines of all time. He's still only 21 years old. And his age-adjusted production profile in college really wasn't that bad. It wasn't flawless, but it wasn't bad. He's also playing for a team that doesn't have a locked-in number two pass-catching option. And that team's offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, he's had just one season out of 10 as head coach or offensive coordinator, where his team ranked outside the top 20. And he's been a great player. And he's been a great target share. His teams have ranked in the top five four different times. Sadiq is still out there in 85% of Yahoo leagues. He's expected to play in week one, although probably in a more limited role. But the bottom line is I don't think this kind of profile should just be sitting out on the waiver wire. Sell Brian Thomas. Look, overall, I'm bullish on the Jacksonville passing offense this year. But as I talked about on the early season schedule analysis episode over a month ago, their opening season schedule is very, very brutal. They'll open up the season against Cleveland, and then it's Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Houston. Then they get their bye before a matchup against Indianapolis. According to PFF secondary rankings, those teams ranked 12th, 3rd, 1st, 18th, 4th, 2nd, and 16th. More specifically to this transaction about Brian Thomas, he's going to face perimeter matchups against Denzel Ward, Patrick Sertan, Christian Turner, Quinn Yon Mitchell, Derek Stingley, and Sauce Gardner to open up the season. We might see some big plays in some spiked weeks from Brian Thomas through this stretch, but it's a very, very scary stretch. And it's going to make fantasy managers more than likely second guess their decision to draft him. Long term, I think Thomas can be fine. I'm just saying that a month and a half from now, two months from now, he's probably going to be cheaper than he is right now. 5. Jalen Waddell I think Jalen Waddell is on the verge of having the best season of his career. The Broncos should provide a better infrastructure for production than what he had with the Dolphins. Not only is there no Tyreek Hill-like player ready to capture a 30% target share in the Denver offense, but the Broncos have ranked 12th in the NFL over the last two years with Bo Nix in touchdowns per game, and they've been 5th in pass attempts. Miami over the two seasons of his NFL career in an offense with a positive EPA per play rate. In those two seasons, he had yards per outrun rates of 2.59 and 2.63. Those are elite, elite numbers. Now it's true that Waddell hasn't been incredible at earning targets. He entered the league in 2021 and among wide receivers with 400 or more routes run since then. While Waddell's yards per outrun ranks in the top 20, his targets per outrun is outside the top 30. With that said, I think he's been borderline dominant when Tyreek Hill hasn't been on the field. Hill joined the Dolphins in 2022. Since then, with Hill off the field, Waddell's posted the second best yards per outrun rate in football while ranking 9th in targets per outrun. Now obviously there are other factors that play into something like that. Lack of alternatives in the offense, the system itself, there's a lot of stuff. But it does show us that there's a crazy high ceiling with Jalen Waddell. Now he's on a Z role. We saw Troy Franklin play that role for a bit last year. There was like a 5-6 week stretch where he was seeing a minimum of 8 targets per game. Now imagine one of the most efficient wide receivers in football in that role. That's why there's a crazy high ceiling with Waddell this year. Add Chris Bell. This year's rookie wide receiver class, there were a lot of players with average to below average analytical profiles who got elevated to day 2 of the NFL draft. And because there were so many with decent draft capital, we're bound to see some of them hit. But their profiles were definitely iffier than usual. But one player who didn't have that iffy of a profile was Chris Bell. According to the ZAP model, Bell had a 69th percentile breakout score. That's totally fine for a day 2 selection. And that's by far the most predictive metric in the model. Meanwhile, most of his per route run metrics were at least average. He's a solid prospect who's built like A.J. Brown. He's not an A.J. Brown type prospect though. Don't get me wrong. He's built like A.J. Brown. He would have gone a lot higher in the draft had he not torn his ACL last season. But he's also gotten some preseason run, he's healthier than most of us expected by this point, and he's playing for a Dolphins team that has the weakest wide receiver room that we've seen in a really long time. So all this is to say, if I were throwing a dart at a high upside player in an offense where there's a legit shot to become an alpha, yeah, Chris Bell would be that dart. You just have to give it a little bit of time. Why Derrick Henry? These transactions won't be one size fits all. You're going to manage your team differently than how I manage one of my teams. Maybe you don't need a running back, so don't trade for a running back. Maybe you're thinking more about the future and you don't need that immediate production. Some managers prefer high risk, high upside teams where maybe they get off to a bumpy start, but then once they get into the playoffs, they have a super team because they took some chances early on. But other managers might want to go with a more comfortable approach where you just want to win right away. You want to win in September, and then you'll figure things out later. If that sounds like you, then Derrick Henry is probably your guy. We'll see what he has left in the tank at 32 years old, but there's nothing to suggest that he's just going to turn to dust. Chances are we're going to see a healthy workload this year, and maybe, just maybe, this new coaching staff wants to use him more as a receiver. But a big reason to call him out on today's show is because the Ravens are set up so well to start the season. They kick things off as road favorites against the Colts, and then it's the Saints, Cowboys, and the Ravens. And then it's the Ravens, and then it's the Colts, and then it's the Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, and Browns. Even the matchups immediately following those six, they're potential high-scoring matchups. Baltimore faces Cincinnati and Buffalo. So the schedule looks really, really good, specifically for an early-down grinder like Derrick Henry. I think that he could be a top-five running back through the first month and a half of the fantasy season. Add Terrence Ferguson. So if you've been consuming late-round fantasy football content this summer, you know what I'm about to say. Because I've talked about Ferguson quite a bit. Now look, chances are he's not going to be top two on the Rams and Target share this year, because they have Devontae Adams and Puka Nakua. But there is contingent injury upside there, and I also think this is kind of a unique situation, because outside of those two wide receivers, the Rams really don't have a lot. There are two things, though, that are really intriguing about Terrence Ferguson's analytical profile. Previous season's slot rate and previous season's average depth of target can often help us find late-round gems at tight end. And last year, Ferguson's slot rate was six yards higher than any other NFL tight end, and he effectively doubled up every other tight end on the Rams in slot rate. Look, from an X's and O's perspective, he's a chess piece for Sean McVay. He has length, he's unreal athletic, and he can line up all over the field. We saw that a little bit last year. And this is in an offense that should be one of the best in the league, and it should be towards the top of the league in heavy personnel usage. So there's a lot to like about Ferguson as a year two breakout. Add the Dallas Cowboys defense. So the start of the season is always really tough for choosing defensive streamers, because drafters are focused on week one when they make those defensive choices in their draft. That means there aren't many defenses that are just readily available that are going to be useful. The Cowboys defense, though, this year should be better than it was last year, and they get the Giants this week. There's still a lot up in the air about this New York offense, and Jackson Dart ranked sixth last year in sacks taken per pressure. We'll see if Malik Neighbors is able to go, too. So as road favorites, I think you could do worse than Dallas' defense. But hopefully, we were able to simply draft a better one to start in week one. That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you haven't subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are registering for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB. Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the first 10 Trends episode of the season. Talk to you then. I'll see you then. Enjoy the game. Shop in-store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL. Guaranteed, it's identity theft protection for the life you are building. Guaranteed human.