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15 TE's That Could BREAK Fantasy Football in 2026 (Scott Barrett's Exodia)

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15 TE's That Could BREAK Fantasy Football in 2026 (Scott Barrett's Exodia)

The discussion focuses on ranking tight ends by their draft value based on current ADP. Historically, tight ends are less critical than running backs or wide receivers, and early-round picks must average over 18 fantasy points per game to justify their cost. A barbell strategy—drafting tight ends very early or very late—is most effective, as middle-round options rarely provide league-winning upside. Brock Bowers, the TE1 at late round 2, is a high-upside pick despite concerns about the Raiders’ receiving corps. Trey McBride, at early round 3, had an outstanding season but may face regression due to offensive coordinator changes and potential decreased volume. Colston Loveland, at end of round 4, offers value after a late-season breakout, though his early-season inconsistency is a risk. Tyler Warren, a rookie with a strong season, is undervalued but depends on quarterback health and performance. Overall, the analysis emphasizes balancing cost, upside, and historical trends when selecting tight ends.

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Who are the best Titan values in drafts right now? That's what we're gonna be doing today. Ryan Heath is joining me. We are going to be ranking the Titans by how good they are at a draft pick at their current ADP. (upbeat music) - Ha ha, that's him. That's the old chief. (upbeat music) - Ryan Heath, let's get into what does the Titan position mean? How important is it? How valuable is it? We know it's not as important as running backs or wide receivers in start sit fantasy football, but are they more valuable than quarterbacks? Is it better to draft them early, middle rounds or late, Ryan Heath, welcome to the show, fantasy football daily, and what can you tell us about Titans? - Hey, how's it going? Yeah, with Titans, the biggest thing as you said, not as important as running backs or wide receivers, I'd put them about on par with quarterbacks, maybe slightly more important than quarterbacks, especially in terms of can you draft them early? The answer for Titans is yes, but the bar is extremely, extremely high. If we look back since 2017, just said our league winning data in terms of Titans that are on over 55% of ESPN league playoff rosters, you basically to get an early round Titan into that company that is dragging all these teams into the playoffs, into the championships, they have to average 18 fantasy points per game or more. We have five instances inside the top 40 picks of this happening of a Titan making this league winning list. Four out of five of them, they average over 18 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring. That's three out of the four Travis Kelsey seasons, and then of course last year, Trey McBride hit that insane upside outcome. So two draft, these early Titans, that's what you have to aim for. They have to score as at least like a mid-range, wide receiver one, that is how high the bar is. So that's something we have to keep in mind as we kind of debate Titans. But yeah, Titan, much like quarterback, is a position where you can find value later as well, as you can see a lot of the names on here are coming out of the double digit rounds in terms of guys that have been these massive league winners. So that's just something to keep in mind. You used to call this like the oligarch Titans in terms of there's just, there's the few oligarch Titans that you can draft early in drafts that we'll have these league winning outcomes there. And then there's just kind of everybody else, historically like the middle round Titans, not always been the greatest bets. I think we're probably a little better at pricing in upside now than we were five, 10 years ago. So I'm not sure that like specifically middle round Titans is gonna hold, but as we go through this ADP list, there are like, there is kind of like a chunk of middle Titans. I'm not that interested in with how it's worked out this year. So excited to get into all of those guys. And yeah, those are just the biggest things to me. - Yeah, so I think this is an important chart. This chart is from Anatomy of a league winner, a piece that Ryan writes every single year looking back at ESPN, win rates, what are the most important, most valuable positions and players? And what can we learn from that over the past X amount of years? And looking at this chart to me, it really highlights, well, the barbell approach at the position. Like either you go early or you go late, and honestly, if we could pull that back up, Jamie, just so we could look at it. If the barbell approach, you see like what? The top seven, it's all either first three rounds or round 14 to UDFA. If you look at the top 15, it's the exact same thing. And honestly, giving more credence to a late round approach, if you take out Travis Kelsey, it's really like almost entirely these double digit round titans. And yeah, that's what I was saying during the heyday of Travis Kelsey, where it's, it was him and, prime Mark Andrews, him and Darren Waller for a couple of seasons. It was these two oligarchs, ruling over this vast swarth of peasants, where it's just like, yeah, it's two super power law players, and then just a bunch of guys you don't matter and are all exactly the same. People think drafting the tight end six, and he finishes tight by ADP, and he finishes tight end five by fantasy points as a win. That's not a win. It's like really the only tight ends you matter, the guys who finish top two every year or top two. And you have to really be putting up like, you know, high end wide receiver two numbers at least. And so the question this year, which we're about to get into is, is Brock Bauer's new Travis Kelsey. Training Bride just scored, you know, what was it, the third most fantasy points by a tight end ever? Is he the new Travis Kelsey? And so that's what we're gonna get into today, Ryan Heath, you and I are going to tear out these tight ends. We're gonna go in order of ADP, telling you that how good they are at cost. And we're gonna start with everyone's favorite tight end, the great Brock Bauer's, who is currently being drafted late round two, as the tight end one, Ryan Heath. What kind of value is Brock Bauer's? Is he S tier? Is he too expensive? Is he D tier? What are your thoughts on Brock Bauer's? - Yeah, I'm into Bauer's this year. I was very skeptical last year for a lot of the reasons we just talked about, which is the Bauer is super high. Often you want it to either be like a very good or a very high volume offense. That wasn't how I was projecting the Raiders in either sense last year. And yet, kind of despite one of the, like worse fantasy scoring environments in the NFL, Bauer's, if you take out the games where he was super injured playing with a leg brace after injuring his PCL, he was up over 16 fantasy points per game across the season in that God awful environment. Now you bring Clint Kubiak in, hopefully just really juicing the efficiency in a lot of different ways there. We are big Clint Kubiak believers here at fantasy points. You kind of add that in, add for an end, Oman Dosa. You can pretty easily make the case that, yeah, Bauer's could get to that 18 fantasy points per game kind of threshold that we just talked about. So yeah, he's somebody that I am drafting in the second half of round two. Is he an S tier of value? I don't know if he would quite go S tier for me. I think S tier might be reserved more for some of like the really late vets that we really love just 'cause there is that big opportunity cost in round two. So I'll put Bauer's at top of eight here for now, but I can totally be moved upward from that if you feel really strongly. - If you could only draft five teams, how many of those teams would have Bauer's on it, you think? - Probably, well, depends on draft position a little bit, but probably like one to two of them, I'd want 20 to 40% Bauer's exposure. - Got it. Yeah, so I love Bauer's. I think, you know, he was coming out and said greatest tight end prospect ever and you had one of the best rookie seasons ever. And then like you said, you just take out the brace Bauer's weeks, the week he had a brace, you know, he was putting up low end wide receiver one production. I don't know, he bread keeps chirping in my ear that he is like, I, he thinks like next year's the year to go all in on Bauer's because it's just easy for teams to neutralize Bruck as the teams clear focal point of the passing attack. And it's just so much easier to do that when that guy is a tight end. And then last week we were on a call with someone who was high up in the Raiders front office and he was basically saying the exact same thing. He said like he hated their free agency, like they really need to get a good to great wide receiver for Bruck Bauer's to really thrive in that offense to fire at all cylinders. It's just so much easier to shut down a tight end and it is a wide receiver one. You just put a corner back on him constantly or you bracket him and so yeah, it's like, hey, if the Raiders trade for Chris Olave then yeah, Bruck Bauer's at this pick is an amazing, amazing draft value, but as it stands right now and it's just the barrier is so high and the opportunity costs of foregoing running backs and wide receivers, I love the player but I don't think I'd have him this high personally. But that's the tight end one by ADP. Traimag Bride just goes five or so picks after and so what are your thoughts? Traimag Bride last year had, you know, one of the outscored a fully healthy Bruck Bauer's, like even if you remove those brace bours weeks, he scored the third most fantasy points by any tight end in NFL history. His 18.6 fantasy points for game was behind only five wide receivers and five running backs. No other tight end came close. The different, between trademark bride and the next closest tight end in terms of total fantasy points was 105 points. So we we talked about the difference between a you know is a tight and more valuable than a quarterback certainly trademark bride was more valuable than any quarterback last year. Difference between him and the next closest tight end was 105 fantasy points. That's the same difference as between the QB1 and the QB13. So what are your thoughts on on trademark bride you know one of the top power law players of the 2025 season now available early round three a couple picks after bouts. Yeah so originally I my like instinct or my reflex was to just not be that into trademark bride initially because it like every season it it's like okay who are the guys that scored a ton of fantasy points in garbage time if you look at like targets fantasy points while trailing in the fourth quarter like trademark bride leads every single version of that stat from last year just because the cardinals were not a functional offense and it just got to the point where they had no running backs they were just letting Jacoby were set drop back 50 times a game and that's what the trademark bride was just getting there on pure volume right but I think that under cells a little bit what mc bride just accomplished I mean you just talked about hey can we believe in rock and have this amazingly efficient season when he's just the number one option in defenses can just kind of key in on him defenses could have done that to trademark bride last year and he did what he did anyway in games with Jacobi were set he was up over 21 fantasy points for game which is just absurd so I kind of want to be open to the idea of well mcbride is literally cheaper than he was last year after he just had as you put it one of the best tight end fantasy seasons of all time we have Michael Flora coming in as the new head coach I think he wants to go run heavy they drafted a bunch of running backs and guards and signed a bunch of back and guards but this defense has not really had any meaningful upgrades they have the exact same defense of coordinator as last year I don't know why we would expect a defense to suddenly get a lot better so do we end up in this world where the carnels are down 14 and the first quarter every single week once again and either brosette or gardener mincew if they can't figure out his contract stuff is in kind of the same place where he is just constantly dropping back we saw Michael Flora allow both Mike white and Joe Flacco to do this with the jets in starts for those two quarterbacks across like a 12 game game sample the jets under Michael Flora averaged over 300 passing yards for game would have led the NFL last year and Michael Flora is not above just letting a better in quarterback kind of drop back a ton and get there on volume at least for fantasy even if they're not winning games I don't think he wants to be this like tank commander and not have any offensive production and be a one and done coach so I'm kind of open to mcbride in early round three I put him below hours he's probably more of like a B tier for me or bottom of a kind of somewhere in that range but yeah the more I've thought about it the more I can kind of talk myself into a mcbride even in round three so B tier is that what you want with I'll yeah I'll go top of B tier I think it's a again I maybe it's just my distrust of these early round tight ends who aren't prime Travis Kelsey I worry about the offensive coordinator like you put it you know it's a regime change he ran 31% more routes than any other tight end last year but the even bigger thing is Jacobi percent you know as soon as Jacobi percent was announced the starter Johnny proctor and I went all in on training bribed from a DFS perspective and we doubled down triple down every single week that's because like that's the biggest tight end cheat code in the game Jacobi percent target has targeted tight ends at the highest rate in the league every year dating back to college and so is this confluence of factors where just cheat code on top of cheat code it's you know Drew Petsig just you know leading the league in pass rate over expectation by a mile ton of garbage time for mcbride to eat it was Jacobi percent who just has this laser focus on tight ends and so I don't know that he's going to get that perfect storm and then just my bias against these expensive tight ends is what it is next tight end up Colston Loveland who is going end of round four as the tight end three Ryan Heath how much do you like that I really like that it's very tricky because there are a ton of wide receivers that I like kind of in that round four range two but when we get to the end of it once like your lad maconkeys and Mike Evans is in those guys that we are that I've been touting all summer kind of off the board Loveland is just the obvious pick to me he's the one that I'm getting the most of he's the one I think I'm the most interested in of these top three guys what we saw last year basically was at the end of the season the bears went a lot more like heavy 12 and 13 personnel on a lot of their drop backs and what that did was it just made Colston Loveland average nearly 16 fantasy points per game he had 53% of the bears receiving yards when they were playing out of 13 personnel he's just this insanely efficient receiver and I can just see kind of a bigger role for him this year he's like just a guy I'm really excited about for personnel related reasons that I wrote about a ton I we don't have to spend like a ton of time on all of the super intense details but yeah just getting like the round to round and a half discount on a that's definitely high for me. Again, it's, I have this bias against these expensive tight ends. I, I started off like really hot on Bauer on Lovland. Where it's just like obvious, as you, you look at his last four games. Including the playoffs, he hit double digit targets and each of them 95 yards per game 19.9 fantasy points per game, 29% target share. No other bears player was over 15%. And so it's, yeah, that's what we waited for. He was, he was our favorite tight end to draft last year. And I don't know why it took so long, but it took until week 17 for him to get a full time. And so it's yeah, that's what we waited for. And I don't know why it took so long, but it took until week 17 for him to get a full time, snap share, route share. And then he just exploded. He went nuclear. He looked amazing. It's like why couldn't we have done that week four? So, you know, I looked like a genius instead of having people met at me. But that's what happened, right? And so it's just like, okay that sticks because this is an insanely talented player. And this is an offense we want to go all in on Devils advocate argument, though, he didn't do shit until week 17. He had that one big game against the Bengals, where every tight end who played the Bengals had a big game against the Bengals. This is the worst defense at covering tight ends in like 23 years. And that was a game Colcomat was that. But still, you know, those first 15, 14 healthy games with Colcomat is he did nothing. The average like 9.6 fantasy points per game. He was just a part time player. And so, you know, I'm drooling over this four game sample. But I don't know that we can entirely throw out those, those, the first 14, 15 games. Like Adam Harstead has this great legendary study that the full season is always more predictive than the final X games, the final four games, final eight games. And, you know, looking at this ADP, I think people are really just throwing that out, where it's like, there's no assumption that, hey, you know, they, they like Colcomat. And there's going to be weeks where Loveland is back to a 60, 70% snap share. I know that's the less likely thing. I know them what they should do. The more likely thing is, you know, build the offense around Loveland. But that is a concern when I'm seeing a lot of late round tight end value I like. Do you have a counter argument to that? Do you think that's not very persuasive? Brian? I mean, so I agree in terms of the full season is in general more predictive than the end of the season, the last four games for Loveland. It's more like the last seven games from week 15 on. He was a mid-range wide receiver one by targets per game, by fantasy points per game. All of that. Yeah, but to me, I don't think specifically for like rookies that are breaking out later in the year, which we see from both wide receivers, anti-dense and running backs. Like this is just the NFL likes to slow play rookies sometimes. I think it does make sense to read more into the second half of the season sample. We did that with Almanaross St. Brown years ago and it made us look really smart in his year too. We did it with Rashi Rice. You are wanting to do it with Parker Washington, who is not even a rookie this year. I do think there's something to be said for the late season samples, especially for the young ascending talents. Yeah, I think it makes sense to me that I think people are just throwing out weeks one through 14 or whatever. That to me is not that offensive or that crazy of an assumption. Okay, next tight end, another rookie or was a rookie last year. Tyler Warren, what are your thoughts on Tyler Warren? He's kind of a little weirdly under the radar. I feel like no one talks about Tyler Warren this off season. But he also had an amazing rookie season in terms of like just rookie tight end season. He's up there with powers with fan in in terms of yards, receptions, all of that. So one of the better rookie tight end seasons we've ever seen. Michael Pittman goes away. Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles tear, but remember, he led the NFL in passing yards through week 11 or whenever it was that he finally got injured. And I think we've done like a weird thing with the cults offense. So this goes for like Josh Downs, Alex Pierce too. That we've just assumed like, okay, it will be a good offense again. And Jonathan Taylor's going in round one. But we've like not done that with any of the passing game pieces. So I think you can make a good argument that Warren is very undervalued like in bestball. But I don't know if I get there in terms of like league winning upside for managed redraft like can this guy finish as the overall tight end one? We'd need to see like this huge, I guess. Yeah, Daniel Jones has to like repeat the magic trick basically of being one of the most productive passers in the league. I don't think it's impossible, but probably not like my favorite tight end at cost in a managed context just for yeah, overall upside. So I probably go. C tier. Yeah, I'll go C tier. Yeah, well, I think you hit the nail on the head about how like underratedly great his rookie season was up until Daniel Jones fractured his fibula. So weeks one through 10 Warren was the tight end to and fantasy. He was averaging 2.13 yards per route run. You know, we all ood and odd over Brock Bauer's rookie season. Bauer's was at 2.12. Warren's was a little bit better than than Bauer's when he had his quarterback healthy. And yeah, no more Michael pitman. That's that's a pretty high target share. But yeah, I think I think C tier is fine. Tucker craft is our next tight end, you know, before his injury, Ryan, you and I were like, oh, crap, Tucker, Tucker craft should have been the exodia tight end. It was so obvious. He's just he's he's George Kittle re incarnated. He's so much fun to watch. Where are you at on Tucker craft now at this tight end 580 p. Crafts an awesome player. And I I wanted draft awesome players. He's one that I had like a midseason epiphany on just watching him like, oh, why wasn't I in on this guy? Like he just jumps off the screen every single time you watch him. And it's true. It shows up in the stats too. He I think has 3 of the top 7 top seasons by yards after the catch per reception at the tight end position over the last three years. Like he's finished in the top one or top two every single year or something like that. So yeah, really explosive player. Hasn't gotten it done so much on volume in the past. But I think you could easily argue that with Romeo dobs done Tavy and Wix out of green Bay kind of they're just being less of a receiver rotation there. That maybe craft does kind of take a bigger step forward in terms of target earning. This is it's persuasive to me. But I think I'm also a little wary of the fact that he's going to now be competing against Christian Watson and Jaden Reed on any 11 personnel snap certainly and maybe even more than that. Maybe Reed plays outside. Those are both to other really strong target earners. I like this Packers offense. I think it provides like best ball ADP is probably too low. I think if that's the case for a lot of tight ends in best ball. But in Redraft, I also am not sure I see like the hugely winning upside to me. This is like kind of betting on it's sort of like betting on George Kittle. It's like the bet we've made with George Kittle every single year. Which is just this will be an efficient offense. Kittle is a total freak like amazingly elite efficient tight end. But I don't know if we know that for sure about craft coming off of the ACL. There's just kind of more risks around that if you kind of compare it to the George Kittle sort of bet that we've made in years past. So he probably comes in around like B tier for me. I would put him behind Mick Bride. But like I see the case for sure. Next tight end. Sam Laporta who you know I feel like I was well you talked me into being more bullish on. I was just looking at you know last three years he averages 12.4 fantasy points per game. That's fine. Travis Kelsey 12.7. So you know a dusty Kelsey a little bit more productive. I don't know he felt like you know tight end 6 ADP finishes tight end 5. But I don't know that there's much or like I don't think he is a ceiling. I don't think he is an oligarch ceiling. You know you could be tight end 3. So long as I'm in Rossing Brown, James and Williams stay healthy. But I think you swayed me into believing there's a bit more upside than that. So when you make your case for Laporta and then tell everyone what tier you would put him in. Yeah my case for Laporta does kind of come down to Drew Petsing as you mentioned earlier with Trey McBride. Now Petsing is the OC of the Lions. And he is just like has just been one of the best OCs in play callers for tight end production. The last handful of seasons. He over the past 5 years leads all active play callers in tight end fantasy points per game. That's ahead of Andy Reed with Travis Kelsey. That's ahead of like Pete Carmichael with Tase and Hill playing QB. So he's supported a lot of tight end production. It sounds like the Lions are going to mix in even more multi tight end sets. And the reason that matters is because Sam Laporta a lot of the reason that he's been kind of a middling fantasy tight end is that he just hasn't had like these massive route chairs right. He hasn't typically been on the field for 85 plus percent of the routes. He's been kind of a borderline like 70 75 percent type of guy. More multi tight end sets just means more routes for Laporta. And across 18 career games where he's been above a 75 percent route chair. He averages 15.9 fantasy points per game which is really really strong for where his current ADP is. You also add in that there's contingent upside if either one of Aminar St. Brown or Jameson Williams gets injured. That's like a huge benefit just in terms of target earning to Laporta on a really strong offense that we want to buy into. Generally the Lions offense has been amazing for fantasy football with Dan Campbell and Jared Gough basically every single year. Yeah I'm pretty into Laporta. I would give him an A tier. I don't I'd put him above Bauer's at cost right now. So yeah top of A tier. He still feels a little bit more like a a best ball pick than a start sit pick to me but I do think you made a compelling case for him. Next tight end another sophomore tight end. And yeah so I think this is worth rehashing is Colston Loveland had one of the best if you value yardage market share or maybe that's the case. It was like an awful Michigan team at the end there but a legendary couple of seasons from a yardage market share perspective I think maybe the best season ever. And then you had Tyler Warren the most productive power conference tight end in college football history whereas like his final season was the best season ever. And then Harold Fane and Jr. was the most productive FPS. FPS season by a college tight end. And so in that class I was like this is like a historically great tight end class and I don't know that that you know the mainstream narrative was was as such but certainly to you and me we were like this is these guys are freaking out and are rendez gas and two throw him in there those those four tight ends with certainly the top three. And then they all had historically great rookie seasons. And so the last of the big three here at 80 P tight and seven Harold Fanon where are you at on on him Ryan. Yeah I mean you just made like a really good kind of lead up case to Harold Fanon maybe this is just an amazing ascending young talent that we should be kind of ignoring everything else and buying into Todd Monkin has been the fourth best play call over the past five years by tight end fantasy points per game which is pretty strong. So yeah it feels like overthinking to not be really in on Fanon but it does kind of come down to like how Max Scano-pilled do you want to be in terms of Fanon as more of like a flex only tight end a guy that probably is not like a great inline blocker probably shouldn't be playing there all the time on a team that just drafted two wide receivers where it's like is there a world where he's kind of getting crowded off the field not getting like a full-time route share kind of ends up in like the Dalton-Kin-Kade situation of last year where he's just not on the field enough to be like in a elite fantasy asset, even if he is really, really good and really efficient. There's also the fact that in college, if you look at Todd Monkin with Brock Bowers, as good as Brock Bowers was in college, he never went over a 19.4% target share, never went over a 24% receiving arts market share. Those are the stats that Fandon just put up with the Browns last year. Bowers never beat those in college. Obviously, he instantly beat those when he got to the NFL. So maybe there is something kind of limiting about Monkin in terms of how he wants to run his offense more through wide receivers. I don't really know. I feel very split on Fandon. I probably put him beat here, like right behind a Tremic bride right now, but I'm super open to being swayed either way on this one. Yeah, this is one, you know, I keep, I don't know. If I'm trying to think deeply about it, and I keep coming back to and don't feel like I have a great grasp on it, but feel like I need to, you know, we talk about how ridiculous Lovelins Final Four games were. But if you look at, if you look at Fandon's Final Four games last season, or really Final 16 quarters versus Lovelins Final 16 quarters, because they both got hurt in that last game. So if you adjust for that, they're basically like, you know, almost exactly the same Lovelin a little bit more efficient on a per route basis. I think Fandon's market share metrics were better, but fantasy points per game. I was only a difference of like 0.5, something like that. And like, yes, I know they're like vastly different offenses, but you know, I keep going back to opportunity costs and how I don't like to draft these tight ends early, unless it's a prime pre-tailor swift Travis Kelsey. Post and Lovelin goes next to Terry McClure in Mike Evans, Luther Burton, Kim Scataboo, and Harold Fandon goes next to JK Dobbins, Matthew Golden, Jacobi Myers. And so like the opportunity cost is really like, you know, what I keep coming back to, but again, it's, it's, you know, and there's always like every year there's these players where like sure the situation's bad, but you have to throw that out. It's just like, no, no, no, this guy is really good at football. And that's the most important thing. It's like, okay, is it Shadur or DeShaw and Watson? Doesn't matter. You both suck. It's a new coaching staff. It's just like, I, this guy had the greatest college football tight end season ever. And then he just had the fourth most fantasy points per game by a rookie tight end since the year 2000. He let all tight ends and targets per route run last year. You have Andrew Barry, just like hyping him up like crazy. So that makes me feel a little bit better about the regime change. And yeah, and so I, again, I don't know that I have a great read on this situation, but it's, he's, he's someone I keep coming back to. He's certainly someone I keep coming. What was your tier? What did you give him? The, yeah, I gave him B. Yeah. Yeah. But I think I'm in a similar place as you where I just, yeah, I don't feel like my opinion is like fully formed on him and that I'm going to like discover something eventually that really makes me swing one way or the other. Yeah. And hey, it is still early. We, you know, a lot of news comes out in July. And if we get word, hey, they're, they're building the offense around Harold Fanon. That's, you know, it's something to keep in mind if it's, hey, Casey, Concepcion is getting all the screens and manufactured touches. Yeah. You know, that, that's a negative for Harold Fanon, Jr. He's tight and on the list, our old friend, our old, our old enemy, our old friend and the Kyle Pitz, tight and 80 P, Ryan Heath, your thoughts. So Kyle Pitz is kind of getting bailed out in the like musical chairs of offensive play callers this off season. He had Zach Robinson who I think is maybe a bit underrated and I really like increase the rate of 12 personnel just made it so that Pitz went from barely a full time player and not fantasy viable to a full time player and fantasy viable last year. But of course, that kind of skips over the elephant in the room, which is that Pitz did most of his damage in fantasy with Drake London, either not on the field or playing very injured in the last couple of games. I had one stat that was in the intermediate areas, so five to 15 yard sound field. It's had over a 30% first read target share without Drake London and it fell to like 12 or 13% with Drake London in the game. Like they're just very, they just kind of were playing the same role. Pitz was just playing like a similar role in terms of area of the field where all his targets were coming from. Once London was out, so they're kind of redundant in that way to me. I just, I don't see really a lot of upside with Kyle Pitz this year. I guess if anybody's getting F tier, it probably has to be him. So I guess I'm going F. I'm not taking any Kyle Pitz. Yeah, that's all I got on that. I don't know. Can you talk me out of it or into Kyle Pitz, I guess? They just have no one else. And so like, you know, one of the most important things for, you know, identifying these league winning tight ends is like they need to be the number one or the number two in the target tree. But yeah, no, I'm kind of with you. And so, you know, I think he's going to be the number one in the league. in, yeah, in the projections weigh in Chris Waxway, where it's, he doesn't start week one. He only plays 11 to 12 games. Maybe isn't like fully himself until maybe the very end of the year. That's more like a c tier to me. Like put him above Tyler Warren just to show George Kiddelsom respect. But yeah, he he's not a guy. If we take like that injury assumption, it's not a guy I'm interested in. So I feel like this is an upside wins championships thing. If the assumption is, you know, matter what he's full effectiveness by Thanksgiving, I don't know that there should be that much of a gap between the two George Kiddles we're talking about. Because like, what's the difference? But I mean, like, I could just cobble together, you know, baseline production and feel good about it and then get the peak George Kiddles for when it matters most, which is the fantasy playoffs. But yeah, either way, like, like, I think even if he's not going to start week one, even if it, if it looks kind of shaky for that, I'm still going to be very in on George Kiddle because if we have time to get to it, Ryan, we're going to talk about, you know, tight end 12 through tight end 16 by ADP, which is attractive. So I like that baseline floor paired with George Kiddles upside, which I think people are sleeping on. Here's a crazy stat for you, Ryan Heath. Over the last two years, George Kiddle averages the 15.3 fantasy points per game, which is the exact same as Justin Jefferson. It's only 0.3 less than AJ Brown. So I like me some some George Kiddle. Although, you know, I'm a little bit more bullish on these injuries and misgames than most. You drew up the show sheet, Ryan, and you skipped tight end 10, you skipped tight end 11, you skipped tight end 12. So, and then you have a tier of like about five guys. So I'll let you take the reins here and talk about whichever tight end you want to discuss next. Yeah, well, first I just want to quickly say I like that thinking on Kiddle. I think it's going to depend on bench size. If you have like larger benches and you can hold Kiddle all season, I love that thought of how to approach the position. That's really interesting to me. But yeah, we can move over. Let's do Mark Andrews. He's one I just don't really know what to think of. I'm generally optimistic on the Ravens offense. They haven't made any huge additions. I'm a big Elijah Seroff fan, but I don't think that should affect the Mark Andrews production necessarily this year. Isaiah likely goes away. These last couple seasons, we've been in kind of an annoying place with Andrews where he's been like a 65 to 70% route share player. Just not like super fantasy viable, except for he can just continue scoring touchdowns, which kind of has kept him on the low end tight end one fringe. I don't know though. I think it's pretty, I can't think of like a great example where we've seen like a multi-year kind of fantasy decline from a former elite and then had him like jump back up into the top two or top three tight ends. Maybe you can like pull a name and own me on this, but I just am not considering Andrews that much basically for that reason in terms of upside. So I think he'd be more like a deed here to me. But yeah, you could turn me around on that if I'm just overlooking something. Yeah, so he wasn't on your list. I added him because I think it's it's worth. I'm not saying I love Mark Andrews. I just think it's worth the discussion because you look at his, let's look at his fantasy points for game counting backwards 25th, eighth, fifth, third, first, fourth, sixth. Yeah, last year was rough, but but Marjackson wasn't healthy. And like Isaiah likely was eating it had a 55% snap share, right? And so you remove Isaiah likely from the situation. How many fantasy points would Mark Andrews have scored? And Charlie Colar gone as well. You look at it by fantasy points for route run over the last five seasons, 13th, second, first, third, third. He let all tight ends and asked two years ago. He'd leave all tight ends and end zone targets every single season. And so like that's the bull case is like this guy has been productive leaves all tight ends and fantasy points for route run over the last three years. And now routes run should explode without Isaiah likely without Charlie Colar. The argument against is he's washed he 2025 was the first season. He had yards per route run below 2.0 and he finished 1.3. And so you're weighing, you're balancing those two things. Which which camp do you or maybe you don't even have to lean into a camp. It's just it's just weighing that upside with that that floor. Where do you where do you tear that you keep that D tier? Yeah, I mean, yeah, hearing you talk about it, I want to push him up a little bit. I think I'm still going to prefer a couple of these other later guys in the upside cases that we can make for them. But yeah, get maybe give me like a C on Andrews after hearing you out. And genuinely, I don't know where I would put him. I think it's a tricky one. It's just I think that's the right way to think about it. And it's it's not even like which camp are you in as he washed or is he it's really just weigh those pros and cons and come up with like evaluation. Are you willing to bet on that upside relative to the cost. But I think I think he's at least worth talking about alongside this. Well, Dalton, Concaid is our next item where it's I think it's a similar I think it's a similar scenario where you could really see the the bull case argument. You can really see the downside argument. And the median projection is probably somewhere around the ADP. If not even lower, but yeah, let's talk about Dalton, Concaid currently tight and 13 by ADP. Where are you at on on Concaid? I think Concaid is like the version of the Andrews bet that I'm just going to prefer because with Concaid, it's not that we're worried about him being washed. It's that we're worried about him being injured and how much is he going to play. I think it's been kind of taken for gospel in the fantasy community as especially anyone that's in like has talked to Max Tuscano and that not to like say that Max is wrong or whatever. But it's I think we've kind of taken it for granted of like, yeah, Concaid will just never get on the field for a full time route share. But I mean, he was injured throughout last season. Like there was definitely load management going on kind of from week to week. It was super annoying and playoff DFS, I remember to try to diagnose all of that. And that was the case every single week. How healthy is Concaid actually. But regardless of that, he averaged 3.19 yards per hour on which is by far the most of any tight end. You can make a pretty strong case that he's just a very talented player, a really good target owner, a really efficient tight end. He plays on an offense with Josh Allen. Like what if he just has that full time role that's pretty easily like a top three top four tight end if we get Don Concaid running 80% of the routes. I don't think it's the lightliest thing, but I want to be open to it when the cost is so low, when the ADP just assumes like this guy will be kind of injured and kind of a part-time player and a low end tight end one because of it forever. So I would put Concaid more up in like the B tier. Like I think you could if we get Concaid is one where I could really be moved based on what we hear in the preseason in terms of how the bills are viewing him in this new offense. You add DJ more. I'm not really a DJ more believer anymore. That probably is affecting it a little bit. That's probably partially why I'm open to it. But yeah, he's one I need to hear more on this summer, I think. Yeah, I think this argument is really simple. The bull case is Jamie if you pull this, there you go. Don Concaid ranked third among all players in yards per route run last year. He's behind only Pukka Nakuwa and JSN. Like that is insane. His problem was he was just a part-time player, was it a 50% route share, but it's like, hey, what if he dealt with a ton of injuries last year, he's now supposedly fully healthy. What if what if that jumps to a 70% route share? What have that jumps to a 75% route share? That is an absolute league winner. He has the best quarterback in football throwing in the ball. It's a great offense that scores a ton of points, not a lot of target competition. We should, you know, there was this this big Joe Brady quote that was like our brain and bean quote. This guy's a freaking idiot, by the way. Brain and bean quote is like, oh, we looked at the numbers and our offense was so much better when when Concaid was on the field. So we need him on the field more. What he was looking at were on off splits and when we have these numbers at fantasy points data. When Don Concaid was on the field, their EPA per play was much higher than when he was off the field. Yeah, no shit. The reason why is because your EPA is always going to be higher when you're dropping back to pass rather than running the ball. He was never on the field when running the ball because you can't block. And so like his EPA per play over expectation wasn't anything good. It was just like probably about, you know, in line with expectation. It was just the past the ball more, but brain and bean is such an idiot. He doesn't know that. I hate him. He's ruined Josh Allen's prime. The talk of your league would have more championships if he were GM for Josh Allen and Brandon Bean. But anyway, looking at that that bowl case argument, it's hard not. Like I think you hear that and you're like, well, I found Scott's exodia tie-dend. The problem is, I think I am way too, Max Tuscano-pilled. For those who don't know Max Tuscano, friend of the show, he's been on school of Scott a number of times. He's like the tight end guru in the industry. And he always talks about how, you know, if you can block, you're never going to be a full-time player and if you're not going to be a full-time player, you're not going to matter for fantasy. And it's just like this, this is just always going to be a 40 to 60% route share guy, no matter what, because he can't block and because that hurts the offense. And so, I mean, I could be swayed. You know, I'm open to news coming out, but you know, for some reason, weighing the pros and the upside versus the downside, like we did with Mark Andrews, for some reason, I just keep, nah, I think that that upside case is too unlikely. I think he's just forever doomed to be a part-time player. We're always like, oh, imagine if, but no, they like Dawson Knox, they like Jackson Haas. It's, I would probably have him lower. And maybe that's a mistake, but another guy who I think was tricky and worth talking about, there are next tight end on the list, maybe a little bit more straightforward. We already talked about, well, imagine Mark Andrews now that he doesn't have Isaiah likely. Well, what about Isaiah likely now that he doesn't have Mark Andrews tight end 14 by ADP now with the giants? What are your thoughts, Ryan? This is just a strictly worse version of the Dalton King Cade bet to me. I think it's very similar in terms, Isaiah likely, very similar type of player in terms of just like route share concerns as Dalton King Cade likely has basically never played a full-time role for like a sustained period. I'd have to go back and pull these, but I think even in games that Andrews has missed, he's not gone above like 70%, that's like the ceiling it's King Cade asks, right? And he's not playing with Josh Allen. He's playing with Jackson Dart, who I know where fans of here, but personally, I am a lot more intrigued by the Josh Allen offense and that kind of whole effect than I am. How do you? Whatever it is that Matt Nagy and the giants are cooking up this year. Like I get the argument in terms of, yeah, likely could just lead this team in targets over the first month of the season if Malik neighbors is out or like slow to kind of come back and get up to full speed, but like to what end? Like what are you actually winning? I guess is what I'd say. Getting like the top option in the giants offense for a month. And then he's a second fit. Like the biggest chasm between him and neighbors between any number one and number two receiver, maybe in the league. Like, yeah, I just don't see the touchdown equity. I don't see like, I think they think he's going to be like a full-time player, but I can also see where they get into more run heavy stuff and Theo Johnson's on the field a lot more than we'd like. Yeah, I just think it's Dalton concai'd if he didn't have Josh Allen. So that to me is like a deed here. So I definitely like it more than you. Theogramger way way higher. That might be his favorite titanic cost is Isaiah likely. And so I'll make the the bullcase argument on Theo's behalf. You have Jordan Rennon, you know, one of the best giants beatwriters after Dan Duggan saying, Isaiah likely could be the giants leading receiver this year. You have Malik neighbors, this injury that people seem to be very pessimistic about. Vibes seem to be kind of off on. Yeah. And if he leads the giants in if he's if he's you know the Wondale Robinson scam a little bit, he certainly could be a league winner. You look at his numbers. So Isaiah likely was like the original Harold Fanon or he's like the discount Harold Fanon where another small school tight end to put up some really impressive numbers coming out. I was extremely high on him. I had a much higher grade on him coming out. I talked to Jim Niggie who said, yeah, teams had a round two grade on him, but he bombed the combine and you know, fell to day three. But yeah, that I had a day two grade on him based on the analytics profile. And like, yeah, he's he's done great. You know, he forced a time share with prime Mark Andrews at early in his career. You look at games without Andrews. Isaiah likely averages 15 fantasy points for game without Mark Andrews. That doesn't even count like another 100 plus yard game at the end of his rookie season without Andrews and another game where he cut nine balls for 11 yards where Andrews did play, but he came into the season. He heard it was it was that week one. So just yeah, whenever Andrews is out, you know, he he performed really well. You have John Harbaugh last year saying my expectation for him is to be an all pro like this guy's really talented. You have you have the coaching connection Matt Niggie was considered a tight end whisperer. And it wasn't just Travis Kelsey with the cheese, but with the bears, you saw I think a rookie call commit. You saw Trey Burton who was just a guy one other. Oh Jimmy Graham. I had a productive fantasy season. And you have Greg Roman who like, yeah, he is the I mean, he's the run game coordinator basically. They just can't say that because the chargers are paying him, but Ryan and I have talked about as it relates to Jackson Dart. Like I want to go all in and Jackson Dart, but Matt Niggie scares the shit out of me. So I'm like, well, what if he gets fired mid season? What if what if Greg Roman is like the real, you know, puppet master behind he's not, but like imagine, but yeah, Greg Roman tight ends are like the that's like the one place you can go to if you're not a blocking tight end and be awesome. And you know, we saw Mark Andrews, you put up a ton of production. We saw Aronda Gatson last year for a stretch. And so that's something to consider as well. I certainly like Isaiah likely more than you do. Do I like him as much as Theo? I don't know, probably not, but but he's an interesting one. Okay. Yeah, I get you swayed me slightly, I think. I still think I still prefer Concade, but it's not quite I don't think it's quite as dire as I was making it out to be just because he doesn't have jaw shalon. You made some good points there. Again, this is the best ball show, but much, much prefer Isaiah likely and best ball than a Dalton Concade. I see a really high floor. And then, you know, we could quibble over the ceiling, but I think there's a legitimate ceiling there as well. Did you want to change your tier ranking before we move down to the next guy? Um, yeah, sure. I get you can put them in top of C tier ahead of in ahead of Super Injured, Gimpy George Kittle, I guess is is where I'd go after hearing you out. All right. Well, that feels like a victory for me. Next tight end, Donnerless, tight end 15 by ADP Dallas Goddard, who finished, where did he finish last year? He was like tight on four, right? Tightened five, something like that. I'm sure you have the stat Ryan, but yeah, what are your thoughts on Dallas Goddard at tight end 15 by ADP? Very much a best ball guy. He's one I wanted to come on this show and tout, but for like league winning outcomes, managed readraft. I'm not sure I can quite get there. Over his career without AJ Brown and seven games since Brown arrived in Philly. He's averaged 12.3 EFancy points per game, just over 50 receiving yards per game. That would be a win for sure at his ADP. Is it quite league winning, super high ceiling? I'm not entirely sure. There's also if you kind of everything anyone's talking about with the Eagles this year is who is hard is going to throw over the middle of the field. Who's he going to throw to? There was a lot of middle of the field stuff to Goddard last year, or even since 2022. I do think that he's one that could low key benefit from that. If that's how the Eagles are going to run their offense, but yeah, ultimately, I think he's just the most best ball tight end ever where he's probably going to outperform his cost by five to six spots at a minimum. The chances of a top three tight end season are pretty low to me. He'd go, let's go like bottom of seat here. I think I like him a little bit more than you, or at least I like the bullcase argument a little bit more than you. It's just that you have Dallas Goddard going so late in drafts. He's going next to a defensive player, Ryan. He's going right next to Travis Hunter. And you have Devon to say if Devon to Smith early round three going ahead of Rashirice going ahead of Chris O'Lavet. I don't know that the gap should be that high. I love Devon to Smith. I definitely think he takes a step forward this year. I think he can be a wide receiver one. But it's without AJ Brown. He's going to get tougher coverage. He's going to get be more of the focal point. He is skinny batman's a bit too skinny. He does really struggle against press coverage. against physical cornerbacks. We had a stat. I think he was the most press-sensitive cornerback wide receiver last year, where he was like top 10 in yards per outrun without press coverage, bottom 10 with press coverage. But everyone's talking about these Devata Smith splits with without AJ Brown. Dallas Goddarts are even better. If you could pull this up, Trey Camberling, Phil Duffy Eagles leaders in yards per outrun last two years. This is plays with AJ Brown without AJ Brown. Dallas Goddard 2.92 yards per outrun. That's ahead of Devata Smith without AJ Brown, 2.7. And then you look at, if you scroll down on that tweet, if you look at it by fantasy points per game, it's the same thing. Dallas Goddard in games without AJ Brown, 14.9 fantasy points per game since 2023. Devata Smith below that, 14.5. You look at it since 2021. That was that first full season without AJ Brown. It was Devata Smith's rookie year. They were neck and neck. Dallas Goddard 11.9 to Devata Smith's 11.6. And yet there's this Kasmid gap. You have Devata Smith going early round three. And you have Dallas Goddard going, again, next to Travis Hunter against a cam ward and keep Mitchell. And you know, it's that matters. Like, you know, however unlikely this scenario you think is, when you're talking about the discrepancy in cost, it becomes more and more something to consider. And like, even if it's, you know, even if it's wrong that, you know, like Dallas Goddard's going to be a co-alpha, it's still like, he's going to be productive. Like you said, the floor is really high. I'm not a, I'm not a lemon guy. I'm kind of distrustful of lemon, don't have you and wicks, you know, could be the best wide receiver in football if he was, he wasn't born without arms, but low and behold, you know, here we are. And so, yeah, I think, I think there's more upside to Dallas Goddard. And like you said, the floor is really high. And so once again, this, this kind of little pocket here is a bunch of guys with a pretty good floor and an underrated ceiling. So, you know, I usually, I only want to draft one tight end, but this might be a good year to draft two tight ends. And so all these guys, well, maybe not concave. Well, another here's another similar more exaggerated concave next tight end by ADP is a rendez-gaston. And this is like a super boomer bus pick. This feels like either, either a zero or, you know, tight end six by fantasy. What you're getting? Do you feel similarly where you add on Ronde Gason here, Ryan? I do, yeah. And I'll open up with if you told me like we are, we're going to draft two tight ends as like our strategy in a draft. And I made a tier list for that. Goddard would be very high. He would be like one I would love to pair with one of these more like very boomer bus guys at a George Kittle or an Ronde Gadson. Gadson's one of my favorite values and just in drafts right now. I was kind of waiting for the like David and Joku signing to like fully bacon to his ADP. That has happened at this point. And now we just kind of the way I see it at tight end 16, we don't need to worry about the downside outcome of what if he's not a full-time player and he just doesn't like get on the field enough for a new coach, right? That like doesn't matter to me anymore. I don't care about tight end floor at this point. This is like you just instantly start streaming the position if your pick doesn't work out here. Here's what I'll say about Gadson. As you were saying earlier in the show, like next to Harold Fanon, Tyler, we're in Colson Loveland, like one of these amazingly productive college prospects. Yeah, just one of the most productive receiving tight ends to come out of college the last several years. We got Mike McDaniel coming in who however Max Descono Pilled you want to be and you want to say, well, a tight end has to be a full time route chair to be a good fantasy asset. That wasn't the case for John Smith or for super old and like out of retirement Darren Waller, right? Over the last 17 healthy games for those two guys under new OC Mike McDaniel, 14 and a half fantasy points for game. That would have been the tight end five last year. That was despite those guys only going over 70% of the routes in three games. These guys were as like as we talk about it with tight ends, these were effectively part-time players for McDaniel, but they were being these like mid to high-end fantasy tight end ones anyway over that time period. Gadson literally had more 70% route share games than that last year. He had four of them. Yeah, he just was amazing for fantasy when he was a full-time player. Why not just say, okay, I'll make the bet. This late that Gadson just gets on the field over a tray Harris or a Quentin Johnston or an Injoku enough to where he is just this really good, really explosive, really efficient tight end on this offense that we're super excited about. You're getting him at like the one of the lowest possible prices in Redraft. Yeah, I'm like all in on Gadson as like a managed Redraft pick. So he'd go in S tier. He'd go above Lovelin for me. I want him as the highest one on this tier list for me right now. Yeah, and you hit on something important that, you know, probably chat. It's not as intuitive to chat unless you're familiar with our work, upside wins championships, and not in the league winner. That's that like, hey, this pick you're drafting this tight end pick around a Gadson scoring zero fantasy points is like exactly the same. It's worth exactly the same as if this were a tight end scoring seven point four fantasy points. In either case, it's worthless, it's on your bench. And so yeah, you need to swing for the fences. You need to swing for the for upside. And I see a lot of upside for this guy. There was for that that brief shining four week window around a Gadson ranked top five and receiving yards among all players, you know, among wide receivers included led the league in yards for target. He looked incredible. He looked like the wide receiver one for the chargers. And now you have Mike McDaniel coming in where 2023, John Smith was putting up high end wide receiver one numbers like it was insane. John Smith, who's never done anything else his entire career is just a guy comes in and that second half of that season was out producing Tyree kill was putting up like top five wide receiver numbers last year. Darren Waller post retirement coming back from multiple multiple injuries was a fantasy point per game tight end one really productive. And yeah, like, Ronda Gadson's kind in the mold is both of those get like John Smith and on a great blocker. And so maybe that's an interesting fit. But it's also just like this is a player I was really high on he was drafted round five. I had a much higher grade on him. Of course, you know, conceding he can't block right now, but maybe could grow into something. And I'm not a film guy, right? And I never try to be and I rarely have film takes. But when I do, I try and lean into it because because like they're usually on point like the track records good because the barrier for me to have a film take is so high that a guy almost has to be really special or if it's a negative take like they have to be absolute ass. And and to me like last year fan and look like 125% Isaiah likely to me, but at his best last year, gas and looked like prime Darren Waller, maybe even like better than prime that four week window was like so nice. And so like, I think there's talent here. But yeah, this is the risk reward. This is the the bull case. And the bear case is is you know, just as easy. It's like this guy's dead. Like what are you talking about? The added Charlie Colour, they gave him real money. That's a blocking tight end and the drafted David and Joku. You're talking about like a guy in a three way tight end committee. No, thank you. He can't block. He's going to be a 30% route share guy. And so to me, I also kind of feels like I could see him hitting, but I don't expect all that much from him early in the year. I feel like the coaching staff needs to be slapped upside the head at like week six week seven, you know, as he's like flashing and these big plays are hitting. So so I I'm not scared. He's someone I think you could probably leave on waivers and just have on your waiver wire watch list and he's popping positive code speak. Then you add him up. But yeah, this was this is like a player who, you know, I really circled in February as like I need a monitor all off season. And unfortunately, the vibes have been more negative than positive. Like I said, Colour and in Joku, but it is a player. I have a lot of conviction in a player. I still see a lot of upside four. Did you actually give a grade for him? Yeah, I said he was S tier. I said I would have him above loved land. I have him as my highest one. Yeah, he's the one I'm going out on a limb for of all of these like later Upside ceiling tight end bets. He's the one that I see see the highest probability of Like having the perfect outcome, I guess so so Trey is fuming behind the glass right now He is the world's biggest Charlie Kohlar stand. I man. Yeah, I think I was just so excited to make my case I missed that S tier Wow, I so I wouldn't have had in that high But but the fact that you do makes me think I need to to push him up even higher Well actually, you know what part of it is is who my exodia tight end is and what my strategy is going to be you need to be a fantasy point Subscriber you need to read my draft guide That I think but it like yeah if you go a different approach than how I'm going it makes sense like there's you're you're not gonna find That sort of upside at the tight end position certainly you know within a couple rounds of his 80p You had one last tight end on the list and honestly, I don't think I would have had a single other tight end I'll say I'll say there has been some Evan Ingram hype that this new play caller is gonna be a major boon to the tight ends You did see that big catch from Evan Ingram in the preseason last year When when this new OC was calling the plays the only game he called plays for Brent Strange I think is underrated but really just like as like Jacksonville's Calls to love lint It's an offense we love but really kind of only a bestball guy to me pat fryermoth to another bestball only guy Greg Dolsich A bestball only guy so I don't think we need to talk about them from start said I I wasn't planning on talking about anyone But you had one last guy on the list here So when you sell me on shigo conco tight end 17 by 80p What if Isaiah likely had jade and Daniels Instead instead of Jackson Dart Is basically how I look at chigo conco Sure, he hasn't had I guess quite the highs of likely and like over his career But this is it if you just compare a conco to all of the commanders secondary interciar where you wide receivers He's just much better by career yards per outrun targets per outrun fancy points for game all of that He I just think he's the second best receiver on the commanders in just kind of like the same like Baldly utilitarian way that likely is on the giants The commanders they have jade and Daniels. I just have kind of everything you hear out of commanders camp is either like Terremaklorans gonna be amazing and gonna get 10 plus targets again this year And we don't really know about any of these other wide receivers is kind of the vibes I get So that that's like exciting for a concubine me. He's also in this Like kind of flex only tight end mo old where when they get on these teams where there's a lot of negative game script It ends up that they have like closer to these full-time route shares and these like relevant fantasy seasons Uh, they basically you look like most of the production for these guys is like when they're trailing by seven or more I think that's the commanders a lot this year Uh, I don't like they've totally redone their defense. There's like a wide range of outcomes there But it's like a seven and a half win total team like this could be a team that has to drop back a lot more than maybe their plan Or then they want to and that that to me is just like a ton of ppr scam stuff possible for a concu so I would put him I Producer trail I have to bring the tear sheet back up. I want him Between King Cade and likely so probably bottom of b tier is where I'd put him I just thought he was another guy kind of in that mold worth mentioning I All these guys are like roughly similar costs, but it I do think if you're in a scenario where like you miss out on gatson And you're kind of figuring out okay, who's like my final round tight end like guy that maybe I'll just drop for a streamer But I'll see if the role is better than we expect I think o'conk was like a pretty good candidate for that Yeah, he Well, I don't like the likely comp I think likely is is much closer to fan in and I think I think uh O'conk was more jano To lean into this argument. Yeah, like right now he looks like the clear number two in this passing attack He's always been a good yak guy and so you know paired that with target volume cheap easy, you know ppr scam production close to the line to scrimmage um I do like the rookie D drafted I do think they're you're gonna see Stefan digs or Brandon. I you go to the commanders um, I also just like Not really a much of a believer in the talent. So I'd have him lower, but but I think that's fine certainly You know yet another high floor tight end you might want a pair with a a George Kittle Or a Harold fan in or a a Tucker craft if you're worried about that injury um, but yeah, so this is This is um This is this is the Right now the Ryan Heath blueprint is you're gonna draft Consider leveling early maybe pairing with gatson or you know if you really want to push the late round tight end draft strategy to its limits You can get a gatson you get another one of these higher floor tight ends and that that pocket that we both seem to like We don't like we don't like Travis Kelsey Who is tight end 10 and who is who is tight end 11 Ryan that we glossed over I think Jake Ferguson was a name I skipped over who I know I know you're a big fan of Historically, but last year and he he worked out well for us, but no, I think that offense just knows its identity It's pickins well here's a thing. Hey pickens is a head case That's though that's the one glimmer of hope for Ferguson is uh, there's a holdout doesn't seem likely at all or Or something like that if there's an injury. There's there's some upside there, but no, I think we were right to both both F tier tight ends to me This is the the Ryan Heath blueprint the Scott Barrett blueprint you're gonna have to Subscribe to fantasy points and read my draft guide I'd get in too much trouble if I gave that away for free But you guys can guess you guys can guess who the exodia titan is you can guess My tight end strategy don't say it Ryan because I feel like I feel like you've guessed it by now But you don't know who I am. I don't know, but I yeah when once we get off this stream I'm gonna tell you my guess and I feel like I'm right, but yeah, I'm excited You probably are right you know you know me pretty well Well, thank you everyone for tuning in This was fantasy football daily fantasy points calm See you next time [MUSIC]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Tight ends are less important than running backs and wide receivers in fantasy football, roughly on par with quarterbacks.
  2. Early-round tight ends must average over 18 fantasy points per game to be league winners, based on historical data since 201
  3. A barbell approach is recommended
  4. Brock Bowers is the TE1 (late round 2), with strong potential but concerns about the Raiders’ lack of a top wide receiver.
  5. Trey McBride (early round 3) had an elite season but may regress due to offensive changes and reliance on garbage time.
  6. Colston Loveland (end of round 4) is a value pick with a late-season breakout, though early-season inconsistency raises risks.
  7. Tyler Warren is undervalued, with a strong rookie season, but his upside depends on quarterback Daniel Jones’ performance.

Summary:

The discussion focuses on ranking tight ends by their draft value based on current ADP. Historically, tight ends are less critical than running backs or wide receivers, and early-round picks must average over 18 fantasy points per game to justify their cost. A barbell strategy—drafting tight ends very early or very late—is most effective, as middle-round options rarely provide league-winning upside.

Brock Bowers, the TE1 at late round 2, is a high-upside pick despite concerns about the Raiders’ receiving corps. Trey McBride, at early round 3, had an outstanding season but may face regression due to offensive coordinator changes and potential decreased volume. Colston Loveland, at end of round 4, offers value after a late-season breakout, though his early-season inconsistency is a risk.

Tyler Warren, a rookie with a strong season, is undervalued but depends on quarterback health and performance. Overall, the analysis emphasizes balancing cost, upside, and historical trends when selecting tight ends.

FAQs

The barbell approach means drafting tight ends either very early (first three rounds) or very late (round 14 or later), as historically, middle-round tight ends rarely provide league-winning value.

An early-round tight end must average at least 18 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring to justify their draft capital, based on data since 2017.

Brock Bowers is a strong pick in the second half of round two, as he averaged over 16 fantasy points per game in a poor offense and could improve with Clint Kubiak's system. However, some worry about defenses keying on him without a top wide receiver.

Trey McBride is a solid value in early round three, as he scored 18.6 fantasy points per game last year and had a 105-point gap over the next tight end. Concerns include a new coaching staff and potential regression in garbage-time volume.

Colston Loveland is attractive due to his explosive finish in 2024, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game in his last four contests with a 29% target share. Skeptics note his slow start, but his late-season breakout suggests a larger role in 2025.

Tyler Warren had a strong rookie season, ranking as the TE2 through Week 10 before his quarterback Daniel Jones got hurt. With Michael Pittman gone, Warren has upside, but his league-winning potential depends on Jones repeating his early-season production.

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