One year after Europe's day-ahead electricity market moved from hourly to 15-minute trading, the change has been largely successful but has also revealed new complexities. The shift was designed to better align market schedules with an increasingly renewables-dominated power system, and it has achieved this by allowing more precise trading decisions and improving integration of solar and wind generation. A major outcome has been a liquidity shift from the first intraday auction to the day-ahead market, particularly in Germany where IDA1 volumes fell by 40%. A "sawtooth" price pattern has emerged, with higher prices at the start and end of each hour, largely due to cross-border capacity calculations still being fixed on an hourly basis. The change has benefited renewable producers, battery storage operators, and transmission system operators by reducing imbalances and deterministic frequency deviations. However, challenges remain: hourly capacity allocation, hourly end-user pricing, and non-EU markets like the UK and Switzerland still using hourly cross-border nomination. Most market participants have adapted, but the sawtooth pattern is expected to persist. Looking ahead, experts discuss the possibility of 5-minute trading, but emphasize the need for a cost-benefit analysis and further market integration before taking that step. Overall, 15-minute trading has delivered on its promise of better aligning markets with physical grid realities, though further improvements are needed.
0:08
Speaker 1
It's been a year since Europe changed from hourly to 15 minutes day ahead electricity trading.
It was a major move designed to better reflect the reality of renewables dominated power system.
0:23
So what has changed?
Who has benefited?
And is 15 minutes already too long?
I'm very pleased to be joined by all of Illness Who's editor, Nordics.
All of a warm welcome to the podcast.
0:40
Speaker 2
Thank you.
0:41
Speaker 1
We're talking about the introduction of 15 minute trading into Europe's stay ahead power market.
How significant was it?
0:49
Speaker 2
It's a big move.
It reflects that the production mix in Europe has become increasingly intermittent, relying on solar wind power that shifts very frequently.
And in that sense, this is a adjustment to the market design just to make it more aligned with the physical realities of the grid.
1:06
Speaker 1
How established does 15 minute training become all up?
1:10
Speaker 2
It has become very established now.
I mean, it, it, it, it started in October one year ago.
Then it was delayed a few times because of technical issues.
You needed to make sure that you had all the processes in place.
But now I think it's been, it's now the standard in the spot markets.
1:25
But there are still of course issues.
I mean you have for example, the some of the end users are still priced hourly.
So you don't have the flexibility there to adjust on a quarterly basis to the production level and you do of course also have some IT systems on companies and so on that need to be a mandate that change so routines as well.
1:44
Speaker 1
So what are the big challenges ahead all of.
1:47
Speaker 2
It's it's not a big challenge in the sense I mean if you have if you have 15 minutes ready, you could say that you could even have 10 minute rating or five minute rating.
It's just how you choose to organise it.
I mean every cause the flow of the production, the consumption that changes every second.
What we have seen so far is of course a few things.
2:03
We have seen that the trading of 50 minutes blocks has not been fallen off by the capacity allocation in the grid so that you can still allocate capacity every hour, which creates some kind of a misalignment there between the traded volumes and the capacity that's flowing.
2:19
We've also seen some reflections in the in the pricing.
You've seen this saw tooth pattern which has become quite famous that we have higher prices at the start and end of each hour like the first quarter, then it goes down for a couple of quarters for it rises again towards the end of the hours.
2:34
There are some intraday intra hourly spreads you could say, which is of course good for someone that's also more risky for others.
2:40
Speaker 1
Absolutely.
We will be going into exactly those patterns in more detail in the podcast.
But thank you very much Allah for setting the scene for us today.
Thanks.
So one year on, the new system is firmly in place, but what has 15 minute trading actually changed in practice and has it delivered what the market hoped it would?
3:01
Well, I'm delighted to be joined by Priyanka Shinde of Montel Analytics.
3:06
Speaker 3
Thank you.
3:07
Speaker 1
And by Vincent Tevernin, warm welcome to you as well, Vincent of Montel Analytics, I hasten to add.
Now we're we're talking about, you know, one year on from the introduction of 15 minute trading and then the day ahead time frame.
Now what has changed in practice, Priyanka?
3:27
And and if you can talk a little bit about what has surprised you the most.
3:32
Speaker 3
First of all, to begin with, I think it's not really so surprising but rather very commendable that we have achieved this major milestone for the European electricity market that finally we have moved to 15 minutes in the day ahead market.
Because if we look at the entire chain of markets, the sequential markets that we have in place including the intraday and balancing markets and so on.
3:54
So they were already adjusted to 15 minute granularity.
So I would say they had market was the one sort of missing out.
And then we also completed that piece of the puzzle, you know, so that's that way.
It's been actually very nice that it has been working and we have also seen how the market is adjusting and adapting to it.
4:13
So it has also shown its agility in a way to act on changes in terms of when it comes to trading in in a way, right.
So there have been definitely changes because now we are looking at 96 quarters out instead of 24.
4:30
So you are taking basically four times the number of trading decisions.
So in that way the complexity has gone a bit higher.
But on the other hand, if we look at the way this whole thing was arranged and the reason behind it was to actually be able to integrate, for example, renewables much better.
4:49
And that is something we are already achieving.
So that's when we started talking about piece of slices like invited one whole piece of versus you know cutting into four.
So if you are only having appetite for three slices.
So this is actually helping us adjust much better and that's exactly what has helped solar vane etcetera, but also a lot of opportunities for the flexibility producers, consumers etcetera like battery assets.
5:16
So that has also impacted in a positive way, so to say.
5:20
Speaker 1
But I think then Priyanka to to continue the pizza metaphor there, you can have different sort of toppings on the, different, the parts of the pizza kindly those, those 4 slices to reflect the, the, the maybe the difference in what's happening in that hour.
Yeah.
Vincent, if I could ask you as well, then over the course of the year, what, what has surprised you the most?
5:41
Is it like Franco's saying that it's been very smooth?
5:44
Speaker 4
I think according to me there was 1 event that was really markful, so there was a liquidity shift shipped from the Idas to the dehead and it was one of the clearest change due to the 15 MTU go live.
5:56
Speaker 1
So what was that?
Sorry the Idas.
What do you sorry the?
5:59
Speaker 4
Yeah, Idas are the intraday auction and the Ida one is 1 at 1500 being the first after the DH stage.
And let me explain what happened.
So before the the go live renewable marketers were using the Ida one and why they use it was to correct the so-called solar ramps.
6:20
So being the residual needs in 15 MTU granularity after the day at hourly auction.
The same goes of course wind and demand ramps and just created a kind of technical liquidity and it was one of the the main driver of of volume for either one.
6:38
After the switch it was 15 MTU in day ahead.
Last year most of this volume were not trading in day directly and most importantly the cross-border capacity could be used accordingly and has met the life of many traders much easier.
6:53
So in terms of volumes, what happened is that in Germany we had a swap of volume from either 1 today ahead and the loss for either one was quite massive because 40% of the volume disappeared whereas dead volume increased by 3%.
7:10
But although we are still net positive and it's makes sense because historically and and it's here today, the ad volumes are much more important than to Adidas.
7:20
Speaker 1
What about the the second intraday auction?
Was that affected in any way?
7:23
Speaker 4
It wasn't affected as well and we did see some increase of volumes, but not just the same phenomena appeared because Ida 2 is not was not used for for balancing of frequential ramps as either one used to.
7:36
Speaker 1
Be and in terms of market behaviour, what, what do you think has been the the the, the, the key changes here, Vincent?
7:42
Speaker 4
So market behaviour basically for the partner was just, explains direct marketers.
Not so many changes, just the market they change.
So either one used to be it's a place to be fit in in product.
Now it's moved to day ahead.
7:55
Speaker 1
OK, that's the that's the key take away here.
Certainly there's from the intraday auction to the day ahead and that's obviously, you know, a massive, massive change in many ways, although liquidity is up in on on the day ahead market as a result, Priyanka so one year on has has the the 15 minute trading that unit has that delivered what was promised.
8:17
Speaker 3
I would say absolutely, because if you look at the whole point of the power market, the way we design it is to be able to coordinate and plan the power system much better already in advance, right?
And that's basically making the job of basically the transmission system operators much more easy because they don't need to do a lot of expensive balancing activations at the real time or closer to the real time.
8:40
So this is already one thing we have observed.
Because if you just take an example of solar power producer says Vincent was also saying that if you just know that your solar production is going to be, let's say increasing over every quarter in the morning hours, then I can already start with a better baseline or a better position in the day ahead market rather than having to do more corrections later on.
9:05
So this is one example.
So basically based on my forecast for every quarter now I can build differently and coordinate this starting from the day ahead market already.
So this is one of the things and that basically means everything is much more synced in an introduction.
9:21
Volumes as Vincent already mentioned has been one of the outcomes.
There have been some other things we have also observed in terms of the intra volatility and so on sawtooth pattern and such.
That's more of a price discovery I would say.
But in general the the way the market has adjusted and how it has benefited.
9:40
So you can see better frequency quality, the deviations have been lesser the imbalances and so on.
So in general I mean there are always going to be other reasons and so on for that to happen.
But overall with adjusting the day ahead markets to this, we have seen it to help the whole market.
9:59
So it has indeed delivered.
10:00
Speaker 1
So it's come much more efficient across the board and but that's hasn't eliminated the need for corrections that are happening in the intraday or the balancing side of things as it's a Priyanka.
10:10
Speaker 3
Absolutely, absolutely.
And and this is basically in one way help it.
But if you look at the the reasons behind entered in balancing markets, it can also be other things, right.
If there are outages or there are forecast errors, they are always going to happen.
And if we even look at the day at market today, right, so it's already clearing at 12 CT today for tomorrow.
10:31
So it's basically, you know several hours in advance and because things move so fast and things can change, there is a cloud cover suddenly or there is increasing wind or let's say lack of wind.
So it's very difficult to predict very, very well for the last hour of the next day for example, right.
10:49
So we are talking about anywhere between even up to 36 hours or so.
So this is quite difficult and the need for other markets are that is definitely going to be that actually one of the implications that this is a little bit, you know further ahead.
But what we've seen in the Nordics is like the cross-border intraday volumes for the quarterly products has even gone up after we switched from day ahead to to day 15 minutes.
11:13
Because now you actually start to see the reasons of this 15 minute cross-border intraday products had existed there before, but the the liquidity hadn't picked up.
But now we're actually seeing for example in Sweden you're trading much, much more up to even 30% of the total volumes traded are or even more are traded for quarterly products.
11:34
So we are starting to see that the market is responding in different ways.
11:39
Speaker 1
That's very interesting indeed.
So it's it's just boosted the liquidity in the trading summers, but you know, there's still the need for that correcting or correcting or, you know, working out your balance is still absolutely there.
Pranka that's very interesting.
But but Vincent, if you, if we're talking from a system perspective, you know, has 15 minute trading solved the the mismatch between scheduling the market schedules and and the physics of the grid or just maybe reduced it?
12:05
Speaker 4
No, it it does not solve the problem fully.
I will not say that, but it has reduced it for sure more or less by a factor 4 because we have more products.
So power trading is working today in blocks, whereas the physical system is continued and there is a mismatch and this mismatch is creating predictable frequency deviation that the system operators must correct.
12:27
We call that deterministic frequency deviation.
We used to have frequency deviations at each hour.
They were pretty noticeable and now their amplitude is smaller and they have moved towards each 50 minutes interval instead.
So bottom line, 15 MTU has been a major step towards a line in market and physics and this is great.
12:47
This is definitely not the last one.
So as we are now integrating more and more renewable energy into the system, we can expect this determined frequency deviation to further increase.
We need to do something about it at some point.
12:59
Speaker 1
If you're if you're explaining deterministic frequency deviation to your grandmother Vincent, well, how would you explain that?
13:07
Speaker 4
Good question, I will try the next time.
It's a peak in a deviation that has been.
It is happening at a even moment in time and what we can notice is for example every day at 9 O1 the system is short is lacking power due to the division.
13:25
This is a deviation which is it's happening every day at the same time on a let's say on a statistical basis.
And it is this is actually bad for the system because the balancing reserves that the TSO are procuring, they are supposed to be there to to have the system in cave of a power plan outage, something which is not predictable.
13:45
So this predictable errors are additional stress from the system and we don't need.
13:51
Speaker 1
To thank you for explaining that, Vincent, it's a very kind of technical area this So that's why I, I want to just clarify that Priyanka, if I can come back to you and another you mentioned another technical term here and that was a, a sawtooth trading.
What, what, what is this?
What?
Why is that significant?
14:08
Speaker 3
Yes.
So a Sawtooth is basically as the name suggests, we see some variations within the hour.
So it's basically an intra hour volatility part.
The price pattern is what we're talking about here.
So we start, let's take an example.
You are in the morning hours when the solar is just ramping up, right?
14:27
So in the beginning you have much less solar for the first quarter and then the prices are higher.
Then as the solar kicks in, the prices start to reduce, but then something happens in the background and then we suddenly see for the next hour, let's say at 9:00.
14:43
So then the price spikes again a little bit for the first quarter and then it drops again.
So that's the kind of price discovery we have been talking about in the Sawtooth pattern.
And the reverse pattern works in the evening hours when the solar is fading away and it's gradually fading away.
15:01
So this is one part of the observation that we have seen and it's not entirely surprising because we were used to this at least seeing a bit of this in the intraday options, right, because that as Vincent was mentioning, it was used by the market to kind of do these adjustments and it was already 15 minutes.
15:20
But here it's it's actually very, very important because in day ahead market the volumes traded are enormous, right.
It's it's a very big wholesale market and the short term for the power market.
So that's why it's very important to also dig into the details of it.
So we started talking a lot about it on what would be the reason.
15:38
And if we look into the details, one part is actually the capacity calculation methods, because when we look at flow based market coupling, which is active in many parts of Europe now, right.
So these parameters are still fixed like for one hour.
So meaning that the inputs that are given to the price clearing model are so to say fixed.
16:00
Now what happens is in the first quarter when you don't have as as much solar in the morning, you are in a deficit, but in the last quarter you actually end up with an excess.
So you go from this deficit to the excess within the within the hour over the period of these four quarters.
16:18
And the market has not adjusted to the transmission parameters to the cross-border capacities.
But the moment the next hour comes in, when it starts, that's when your market is actually able to adjust to the new value.
And that's when you start to see a different price suddenly.
16:36
So you see these price jumps from the last quarter of the first hour to the next hour's first quarter.
So these kind of jumps that we see are kind of reflecting there are some things behind the capacity calculation the way we do these which is reflecting this.
16:52
Now naturally there are also some other factors like blog bits and so on which are going to be a part and pasture of the of the power market because we do have certain conventional generators also operational in the market, right.
So that part is still there and it's improving so to say, but it's it's a factor of these different reasons, but I think it's mostly having to do with the capacity calculations largely.
17:16
Speaker 1
You you call it Sawtooth Branka, but would it another way I've been saying would be sort of intra intra hour volatility as well, right.
Would that be so in terms of that, do you expect that to continue then Vincent, he is beyond 2027 or is the market is going to be less of that as the market kind of adjusts and learns what, what's your view?
17:38
Speaker 4
So the sort of surprise button has been declining over time since the Goliath.
So at the beginning of the Goliath was the highest.
But if you look at the evolution month by month, yeah, it has been decreasing slightly.
It's still there.
But this evolution is due to the increasing share of the market part isn't actually using the 15 minute product type was said differently.
18:01
Not all the market parties were ready on day one and it makes sense it took some time for some parties to to adapt the system to changing.
And now so a few months, one year, one year after we see just if yeah, the full effect.
We see that already 80 to 80% of all market participants are using 15 MTU and we there are also some geographical differences.
18:25
But to I don't think we will see the full sources disappear even if you give it enough time, even in 2027, because as prank I mentioned, there are already a few aspects that need to be tackled first.
So of course we have the natural fact that sample plants are not flexible enough to change the output and not, not able to, to pitch adapt the volumes in different quarters.
18:48
But there are further aspects in terms of market design.
It was named by Pranka.
But the, the input of the market coupling, namely the flow based domains are still now only granularity.
And that's a barrier to, to, to, to adapt for the sort of pattern.
19:03
And a final point is that for the markets outside of the EU like UK and Switzerland, we still have cross-border nomination in hourly manner.
And this is also contributing to different, yeah, to the sort of pattern as well.
19:19
Speaker 1
Do you think that will you know is, is that likely that they will be brought in to the 15 minute trading unit here, Switzerland, the UK in particular?
19:28
Speaker 4
Yes, there, there are some plans to do that.
But of course it's about political negotiations, adapting processes and this I think take time.
But there are some plans for actually this year for the Swiss market to move in 15 minutes MTU, but it will be the internal market, not cross-border.
19:46
There are discussion at the TSO level to integrate Switzerland with market coupling.
I don't have the exact date, but some, some are around 2028.
There is still a referendum on the way in Switzerland, so there are some adults, but I think most market parties both interested in UK would really be happy for that to happen to for these two markets to rejoined market coupling.
20:07
Speaker 1
And and flow based as well flow based market coupling, yes, to move that to to that 15 minute granularity as well would be, will be crucial.
Priyanka, I mean, who's benefited most from the move to 15 minute trading and who maybe has found it most challenging?
20:23
Speaker 3
I would say almost everybody in a way is a winner because if we should start from you know the renewable assets, right.
So you as as we talked about how it has been better for them to be able to plan already better and commit better in the day ahead market start with a better position based on the forecasts, right.
20:40
So that's one.
Then we have seen from the data the of that the battery storages for example in Finland have been reacting to the day ahead prices.
So essentially what it means for these type of flexibility providers is that if you feel like in some other markets like Ansley service markets where the prices can sometimes be low.
21:04
So if the opportunities are going away, then they're actually shifting in the market because you can make use of those spreads, the intra volatility and so on that we talked about.
So that means the the opportunities are there for them, right?
So a lot of opportunities for those who are actually willing to act on these market signals.
21:21
I think they have been largely the winners.
And if you look at the TSO.
So if everybody in the market is able to kind of try to find the solutions as much as possible, it makes the job easier.
So it's a win, win situation also for the TSO's in a way, so to say for the market operators also because of, yeah, good liquidity and so on.
21:42
So it's also a good thing for them more cross-border, yeah, coupling and so on.
So that's possible.
So things have been working quite good.
But yeah, indeed it's, it's been a challenge also for those who have been a bit slower to adapt or the complexity has been on the rise.
So I would say that part has been a bit challenging.
22:00
And as Vincent was mentioning, like some of them might not actually fully be able to adjust, but we have still been collecting data and seeing that there has been a shift in the patterns of moving from 16 minute blocks to 15 minute blocks and that part is still coming in and it's been different geographically and so on.
22:19
When it comes to the way forward, I think there is it still reflects that there are there are also challenges from the TSO's point of view, right as we talked about the capacity calculation, better adjustment of those inputs because this is basically the output that we see in the market is coming in from the input that goes into it.
22:37
So some more work needs to be done and there is scope for improvement.
That's definitely a given fact also that we have found out after this.
22:47
Speaker 1
But that level of granularity is all important because it as we're going into this renewable based dominated power system, that's absolutely crucial.
And to provide that the opportunities for those flexibility providers as well.
Absolutely that's crucial.
I, I want to close now on one question guys, and that's if we will have this conversation in five years time, what, what does the European short term market look like?
23:10
We'll be discussing the move to five minute trading or one minute trading.
What?
Where will the discussion be, Vincent, if I start with you?
23:19
Speaker 4
That's a really good question.
I say in five years from now I will not expect 5 in to be live already sadly at least nodded in their head, especially if you look look at the past track record that we have had.
So it took 14 years to implant 15 MPU from intraday to date in Germany.
23:36
Quite a long time, but for clear go life date to be known by then, this could be possible.
I would hope so.
But if we look even further ahead, something like 10 to 15 years, I'm quite optimistic that we'll end up at some point maybe with one minute products.
23:52
So for the market participant, it's not unrealistic because if you look at the way it is today, Agri trading is dominating the market massively and the complexity is way too high for human to have the full overview of all the products at all time.
24:08
And because the change from from 15 to to 5 or your name the changes take, they are quite costly.
They take some some time to implement.
I think it will be good to start assessing the added value against the implementation cost and not to waste any time.
24:23
Speaker 1
Absolutely, the cost benefit analysis sounds makes perfect sense there.
Priyanka, what what do you think?
Where will we be?
What will we be discussing in five years time?
24:32
Speaker 3
Yeah.
So realistically just touching on the topic where you last left.
So cost benefit analysis, I think that will be the main question.
Yeah, because we we also want to build and develop our power systems and market design in a way that benefits the consumers at the end of the day, right.
24:48
So that's where the the topic will also land up with for everybody to get on board.
And that's why I think, yeah, it would be very, very good to start with interim markets and balancing markets with 5 minutes and slowly get into so kind of history repeating itself.
25:04
So they had might be the last one that would be adjusted to the 500 granularity because also about the complexity of Euphemia, right.
So when we move from 60 minutes to 15 minutes, the amount of time we need to give to Euphemia to find a solution has been almost doubled.
25:21
Speaker 1
And and Euphemia for those those listeners, one where that's the algorithm behind all the power price calculation isn't.
25:27
Speaker 3
It for the day ahead market, yeah.
For the day ahead market, yeah.
And it's, it's very complicated because you have to deal with a lot of block bids, different type of bidding patterns and so on.
And it's coupled across several countries of of Europe, right.
So it's a very large scale thing.
And then at the on the other hand, we're also talking about how is the market exchange like power exchanges dealing with all these complexities and so on because you need to assure proper price to everybody and it has to work.
25:54
So there's a lot of tests that go on which takes several time.
So I feel like we have a long way to go.
There are they're going to be a lot of changes that for example, yeah, with intraday auctions like flow based market coupling coming in there and so on.
Those are going to be in the near term, those changes are going to happen.
26:11
So it will only get better.
So that's definitely one of the things I can say for sure.
And the the better in the sense the more closer we get to the reality, the the more efficient the power market becomes and the better we can plan for the power system.
So we will really bring these to, to converge, you know.
26:30
So that's where we are headed towards.
And if we take examples of Australia or other places in the world, they have already done it.
So to say this 5 minute things.
So I don't think it's difficult for us to achieve and it's just going to be a lot of work to put in.
So I think, I hope we will be discussing, you know, one minute in five years there.
26:50
Speaker 1
That'll be, yeah, that'll be some progress there, I think.
Yes, I think definitely 5 minute, one minute, maybe by 2040, then potentially.
But but Priyanka and Vincent, thank you very much indeed.
27:02
Speaker 4
Thank you very much.
27:02
Speaker 3
Thank you.
Listen.
27:04
Speaker 1
So we've heard our traders and the wider power system have adapted, but what does the first year look like from the perspective of the market operators themselves?
I'm delighted to be joined by Ina Sheldrup of EPEC Spot.
27:17
Speaker 5
Thank you very much.
Happy to be here.
27:19
Speaker 1
It's very important that we have the perspective from an exchange in this discussion.
So how are you happy with the first year of 15 Minutes trading?
27:30
Speaker 5
Yes, we're very happy.
It was successfully launched with no major issues.
We had the vast major majority of orders have moved to 50 minutes granularities.
That shows that there was a big need in the market.
We see that aligning with balancing granularity has also decreased the deviations there and overall liquidity has has increased.
27:53
So we are very happy about how it went.
27:55
Speaker 1
What has changed the most?
Dina talk us through the the these kind of developments.
28:00
Speaker 5
What was already mentioned is the the move from RDA 1 to day ahead.
So we see that at 3:00 PM at RDA one that was often used to correct positions from aspect from day ahead.
But now we see that that need has decreased quite a lot.
28:15
So we see that a lot of that volume has moved over to the day ahead auction, but we only see that like really clearly in Germany and the other countries, it's a little bit less clear.
And that's of course the German markets for the Ida 1 is it's much larger.
They also have had 10 years plus of 50 minutes trading.
28:32
So they're also maybe a little bit more flexible and shifting around, but that's what we see.
But we see that the overall liquidity of the system has massively increased as well.
28:41
Speaker 1
Well, so it's a win win and I think so IDA1 is the intraday, the first intraday auction, isn't it?
So that's so that's so we've seen the liquidity move in that direction.
And what has been the response of your customers, of market participants more generally they're?
28:57
Speaker 5
Very positive.
They were very happy that they can finally align with the physical needs of the system.
REST integration, of course it's a it's a big thing and it's good to have the tools to to meet that and also having cross product matching.
So the the the customers who still want to remain in the in the 60 minutes products can do that.
29:16
So we are able to facilitate both.
So this is we have had very positive feedback on that.
29:22
Speaker 1
If we're looking forward now, both Vincent and Priyanka in in the earlier discussion, they talk about the next steps to potentially to to five minute trading units.
We also heard this week your boss, so we Lucas Kresnik of of EPEC spot mentioned that whoa, whoa, whoa, we have to integrate other markets first before we can move to that level of granularity.
29:46
Could you explain that for us a little bit, you know?
29:49
Speaker 5
Yes, I mean 55 minutes is is a, it's a kind of a logical next step to ask.
We also see it on the table and, and several, several discussions at the moment also for the UK market reform questioning instead of going to 15 minutes, why don't we go straight to five.
30:05
But what we have learned from going from one hour to 15 minutes is that it's not just times 4 when it comes to complexity and resources needed to run a system like that.
It's the costs are exponential and it's possible, but it's it's quite expensive and and resource demanding.
30:24
So for that reason, it should really be justified.
The need should be that high that it justifies those additional costs.
And especially now with the cost of the overall system and massively increasing for a variety of reasons.
I think before we go to the 5 minutes because it's a logical next step, it should really really justify the need first.
30:43
Speaker 1
So you know, what are the challenges in integrating the UK, Switzerland and the Western Balkans potentially into the 15 minute training?
30:52
Speaker 5
Well, UK would first have to reintegrate into the internal market.
I think that that would really be beneficial for for both sides.
So we are really supporting, supporting that move because you are able to use the the overall system much more efficiently than you are now and and use the resources we have more efficiently.
31:10
So that will be definitely be the first step.
I think otherwise it's Switzerland as well.
I think it's they're talking about 50 minutes, but it's the local 15 minutes there.
So I think it will be similar challenges in those markets as what we saw in our markets.
31:26
Everybody has to align and be ready and go live at the same time.
So it's it's the same.
I think that's very different.
31:32
Speaker 1
Perfect, Dina, thank you very much indeed for being a guest on the Plugged In podcast.
31:37
Speaker 5
My pleasure.
Thank you very much for inviting me.
31:39
Speaker 1
And to you listeners, thanks for listening to this episode of Plugged In.
If you enjoyed this discussion, please like Rate and Follow to make sure you get the latest.
31:49
Speaker 2
Podcast episodes.
31:50
Speaker 1
As soon as we release them every Thursday.
Finally, you can head to montonenews.com for more news and analysis from our team of journalists across Europe and beyond.
See you next time.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Europe's day-ahead electricity market switched from hourly to 15-minute trading a year ago to better reflect intermittent renewable generation.
The shift to 96 quarterly products per day has increased trading complexity but improved alignment with the physical realities of the grid.
A major liquidity shift occurred from the first intraday auction (IDA1) to the day-ahead market, with German IDA1 volumes dropping by 40%.
A "sawtooth" price pattern has emerged, with higher prices at the start and end of each hour due to fixed hourly cross-border capacity calculations.
The change has benefited renewable producers, battery storage operators, and transmission system operators by reducing imbalances and deterministic frequency deviations.
Challenges remain, including hourly capacity allocation, hourly end-user pricing, and markets outside the EU like the UK and Switzerland still using hourly cross-border nomination.
Most market participants (80-90%) have adapted to 15-minute trading, but the sawtooth pattern is expected to persist beyond 2027.
The next step could be 5-minute trading, but experts emphasize the need for a cost-benefit analysis and further market integration first.
Summary:
One year after Europe's day-ahead electricity market moved from hourly to 15-minute trading, the change has been largely successful but has also revealed new complexities. The shift was designed to better align market schedules with an increasingly renewables-dominated power system, and it has achieved this by allowing more precise trading decisions and improving integration of solar and wind generation. A major outcome has been a liquidity shift from the first intraday auction to the day-ahead market, particularly in Germany where IDA1 volumes fell by 40%.
A "sawtooth" price pattern has emerged, with higher prices at the start and end of each hour, largely due to cross-border capacity calculations still being fixed on an hourly basis. The change has benefited renewable producers, battery storage operators, and transmission system operators by reducing imbalances and deterministic frequency deviations. However, challenges remain: hourly capacity allocation, hourly end-user pricing, and non-EU markets like the UK and Switzerland still using hourly cross-border nomination.
Most market participants have adapted, but the sawtooth pattern is expected to persist. Looking ahead, experts discuss the possibility of 5-minute trading, but emphasize the need for a cost-benefit analysis and further market integration before taking that step. Overall, 15-minute trading has delivered on its promise of better aligning markets with physical grid realities, though further improvements are needed.
FAQs
It is a predictable frequency deviation that occurs at the same time each day, such as a shortfall at 9:01 every morning. It is problematic because balancing reserves are meant for unpredictable events like power plant outages, so these predictable errors add unnecessary stress to the system.
Previously, renewable marketers used IDA1 at 3:00 PM to correct solar and wind ramps in 15-minute granularity after the hourly day-ahead auction. Once the day-ahead market itself offered 15-minute products, most of that volume moved directly into the day-ahead auction, with German IDA1 volumes dropping about 40 percent.
IDA2 was not used for balancing frequent solar and wind ramps in the same way as IDA1. Therefore, it was less affected by the move to 15-minute day-ahead trading, and its volumes did not show the same dramatic change.
Cross-border intraday volumes for quarterly products have increased, with Sweden trading up to 30 percent or more of total volumes in quarterly products. The 15-minute day-ahead market has helped the market respond and boosted liquidity in these shorter-term products.
It is an intra-hour price pattern with higher prices at the start and end of each hour and lower prices in the middle quarters. It occurs largely because flow-based market coupling capacity calculation parameters are still fixed at hourly granularity and cannot adjust within the hour.
It has been declining slightly month by month since launch, but it is not expected to disappear fully even by 2027. Barriers such as hourly flow-based parameters, hourly cross-border nomination with the UK and Switzerland, and inflexible conventional generators still prevent full adjustment.
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