Speaker 1Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to crush, humiliate, and totally destroy your competition in your fantasy football draft. It's incredibly simple, so let me just break it down for you. Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit for the fantasy footballers is hands down the best fantasy tool in existence. I mean, come on. It's got sleepers, it's got busts, injury updates, full projections. This thing's even got full dynasty rankings. Don't overthink this. It's the only wingman you'll need this year. Head over to UltimateDraftKit.com and grab your copy right away.
Speaker 2Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Speaker 3Welcome in.
Speaker 4The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Wednesday, August 19th. Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway in the building.
Speaker 5In the house.
Speaker 4Oh, they're growling. Things are percolating. The deucers are deucing, as they do every day. But yeah, we got a, I mean, we can just, we can get straight to it. I mean, we got a big, what? Got a big announcement today. I don't want to hear the, like, subtle.
Speaker 6Get straight to what?
Speaker 4People have been asking for a while. It's time. Go ahead, Jay. Go ahead. What? What? What's your announcement? It's the Megaloball!
Speaker 6Oh, baby! It's terrifying this year. It is terrifying.
Speaker 4That's right. The Megaloball for 2026.
Speaker 5It's time, baby. That graphic is awesome. Yeah, we have an aquarium in the back. But I would be remiss if I didn't point out some scale issues.
Speaker 3Those footballs. There's some, they're... The size of a boat.
Speaker 4Those are large footballs. If you don't know what the Megaloball is, it is the largest fantasy football league. It is the most prestigious of fantasy football leagues. More than 21,000 of you played it last year. It is Megaloball.com. Oh, it's go time. If you're a Foot Clan supporter, you get an entry into the Megaloball. Drafts will be held Friday, September 4th, all the way through Tuesday, September 8th. Kickoff is Wednesday this year. And you can... You can, right this moment, go to Megaloball.com, and you can claim your draft slot today.
Speaker 6Yeah, it's a fun league. We try to make all of the rules, all the settings, exactly similar to how we play our league of record, other than it's not a keeper format. You know, you're going to play against 12 people, randomly assigned, other Foot Clan members that... Oh! That love this game. The giant balls are back!
Speaker 4I think I broke something for him, but it disappeared too soon. I wanted it back for the second time when Jason was talking.
Speaker 6Yeah, so, but the leagues are really, really fun. You're going to be playing with other Foot Clan members. In the end, the last three weeks, if you make the playoffs, which the top half of each league does, it's tournament style, highest points goes forward each week until the championship. And at that final week, the winner of the Megaloball is guaranteed a spot with us. In the next year's Listener League. So, if you've been... That's not all. And... An ultimate subscription. But wait. For life. There's more. For life. Yeah, the ultimate Foot Clan membership. You will be a part of this forever. So, a lot of cool reasons to play in the Megaloball. Everybody loves it. Sign up. Make sure you do it now. There's plenty of draft slots to go around. We're going to play. Yeah, I'm in it. I've already got my draft slot.
Speaker 4We've got draft slots picked out. I'm sure the Deucers will be in there. And it'll be a great time. So, you can do it now. Megaloball.com.
Speaker 5Watching this, man. We need to make that screen like an aquarium more often. Oh, yeah. That's feeling good.
Speaker 4Yeah, that was nice. I should add this, too. Like, if you bought the ultimate draft kit and you want to be in the Megaloball and you're not a Foot Clan member, we will credit your full amount of the UDK towards an ultimate membership. So, it's dollar for dollar all the way up until kickoff. It's just what we do every year. Because sometimes people buy the UDK and they're like, well, I want to be in the Megaloball.
Speaker 5Don't wait until kickoff, though, because then you'll miss the draft.
Speaker 6Yeah, don't do that. Just do it right now. And as far as how you do that, it's really easy. You just, if you're logged in and you have the UDK, then it'll automatically, when you go to the Foot Clan membership page, it just automatically will show you the discount.
Speaker 4Yep. So, there you go. Megaloball.com.
Speaker 2News and notes from around the league.
Speaker 4By the way, we finally have our top 10 tips and tricks. Dang it. It's not tricks. It's tips and, oh, it is tips and tricks. It's tricks and tips. I've been doing this every day now. Oh, man. What is dementia? What else could it be? What is dementia? You know what I mean? What is that? How do you spell dementia, Jay? A-N-D-Y.
Speaker 2We would tell you, but you won't remember.
Speaker 4Okay. Yeah, that's today. We will have tips and tricks. You may not believe in any of mine after this intro. Alvin Kamara, here's some news. We'll miss at least one month due to a sprained MCL. Rumbalaya. And somehow, Kendra Miller is back. Back at practice. Oh, stop. I don't believe you. But Travis Achan Jr., big deal.
Speaker 6Yes. Kendra Miller, Devin Neal, back at practice, but they are not the type of backs. Like, I do worry about Travis Achan Jr. with Kamara involved. He is, you know, obviously a big part of this franchise, and he will take some of the receiving work. With him gone, Kendra Miller and Devin Neal are not going to eat into Travis Achan Jr. We'll talk more about him upcoming, but this is. Good news for Travis Achan Jr. Sorry, Kamara.
Speaker 4Quentin Johnson left Tuesday's joint practice against the 49ers with an undisclosed lower body injury, but is, quote, totally fine. Well, that, you know. Okay.
Speaker 6Actually, what's ironic about this is that the news was about Quentin Johnson's injury, and then you see that, and you go, oh, dude, my guy, Trey Harris. But then it turns out the truth is that Trey Harris was actually missing. He was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quentin Johnson's fine. So, really, the news is not that Quentin Johnson's injured. It's that Trey Harris is.
Speaker 4Why don't you share the other news for the. Yeah, the other one's the big one.
Speaker 6No. I will not share it. Yeah, the all-world center that the Chargers picked up, Tyler Biatish, he's going to miss a significant amount of time. Sounds like a lot. Yeah. Significant. He injured several ligaments, damage to his ACL, and additional injuries to his left knee. Gross. He is seeking second opinion. He's seeking second opinions on how to deal with it, so we don't know for sure. I mean, as of right now, I think we just assume he's gone for the season. TBD, it could change, but it's terrible, awful, very bad, no good news. Very bad news. And Slater, their left tackle, also currently injured. His is much better. He's going to miss a little bit of time, but.
Speaker 5I mean, yes, it is better than potentially missing the whole season, but didn't they say it was a flare-up? I thought I had a flare-up. I read that, so maybe I'm speaking out of turn here.
Speaker 6No, I'm unaware if it was a flare-up or not.
Speaker 4Yeah, that's not great. Kyle Shanahan said, after Tuesday's practice, Mike Evans experienced tightness. This is quadriceps.
Speaker 5Mike Evans did the Grandpa Simpson gif.
Speaker 6Yeah, he got back out there and goes, nope. Also, I heard a foot injury on top of this. Mike Evans is falling apart. He should never have gone near that substation.
Speaker 4They're running out of wide receivers not named Strip Club right now. Yeah.
Speaker 6It is confirmed that Slater is a flare-up, but the timeline is supposed to be about two weeks.
Speaker 5I say flare-up as in, because he's coming off a torn patella, so it's that.
Speaker 6Yeah. That's not good. That's not good. That's not what you want to hear. It's like having a quadriceps injury after having a quadriceps injury.
Speaker 4For Mike Evans? Yeah.
Speaker 6Yeah.
Speaker 4Carnell Tate, undisclosed absence. From practice.
Speaker 6It was, he took a very big hit, and they weren't saying whether or not he had a concussion, but he didn't participate in the next day's practice, so dealing with something, but it was, it seemed like it was head-related.
Speaker 4Did you know Jerome Ford was a member of the Commander's Nation? I did. Yeah. And he is now on injured reserve.
Speaker 5So is he, so then he's toast? He's out for the year? Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 6I just see injured reserve. I don't think injured reserve guarantees loss for the year.
Speaker 4Kyle, is it the whole year?
Speaker 5Man, I don't, Jerome Ford was not a part of it.
Speaker 4No, but Rashad White is not practicing. I mean, right now it's, it's Bill. Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill. So.
Speaker 5Draft him.
Speaker 4And then Jalen McMillan back at practice for the Buccaneers, which. That is news that that team needed.
Speaker 6Yeah. I mean, there, there was more news on Emeka Igbuka. He was wearing a, one of those like hard sole, like, shoes to protect the toe. Which, from what they were saying, you know, things came back clean, it's just not a great sign for the grade of whatever turf toe, if it's turf toe, he's dealing with, which it's turf toe.
Speaker 3But what about me, Jay?
Speaker 6Yeah. Give me something to break. Ted Hurst.
Speaker 3Yeah.
Speaker 6Really, what about Chris Godwin?
Speaker 3Who cares?
Speaker 5Yeah. And Tez? No, Chris Godwin looking like a mighty nice value right now. All right.
Speaker 4I don't think we have other news unless anything's been happening. I mean, we either have, like, injury news that's real or injury news where they're like, that player just left and went to the tent and then went right back out on the field.
Speaker 6And then you're like, oh, okay. We get those a lot. I freak out many times a day. Oh, man, that Olave pump fake yesterday. Oh, yeah. Unnecessary. Olave's taking it. That was head injury, right? Wasn't there a concern about head? Oh, man, I didn't see that. If they. If it was that, I would have probably. Passed out. Peed my pants. Yeah. I think I really would have peed my pants. If it was a head injury. That's what your reaction is to a real extreme injury. I would have done it on purpose. I would have done it. In protest? Yeah. So not like a scared pee. No, no, no. I would have sat there until it was time. This is for you, Olave. This is for you.
Speaker 4Golly. Golly. Well, we have our 10 tips and tricks we want to share with you. It's a big show. So we're going to kick it off right now. All right. It is time to jump in. Each of us contributing three different ideas for 2026 in terms of things to pay attention to, things that we're learning. We always try to bring you something new in this episode each and every year. So let's get it going. Number 10. All right. Number 10. Uh, loosely titled out of your depths. I wanted to take a look and see how much depth you actually need to win at fantasy. I've said it for years. Mike is, uh, Mike's championship last year. I mean, and his dynasty team have been built on a lot of depth and the unwillingness to trade away some of that depth mid season and held onto it and it paid off.
Speaker 5I don't know when to consolidate.
Speaker 4And I've always said, I adore putting together that perfect best starting lineup, but how much depth do you actually need? So let me give you some uncomfortable math to start off 27%. That is the chance is uncomfortable. That is very uncomfortable. I hate that. That is the chance of Jason peeing his pants on a daily. No, the chance of a running back playing a full season, 27%. That is, you know, any running back seven out of 10 missed games last year. Here's some more math. Only six of the top 24 wideouts that were drafted played a full season. Two of the top 12 drafted receivers played every game. So some, some, uh, level setting there for the amount of injury and things that you're going to deal with. Here's uncomfortable math part two, since 2010, only about 36% of running back one picks actually beat their draft slot.
Speaker 6Gross.
Speaker 4Uh, so you have injury risk, you have missing games, and then you have performance risk. So basically the math is saying that roughly half of your first nine picks will either underperform their cost or get injured. And you're probably going to cough up 12 to 15 stars due to injury. So not surprisingly, you need depth. That is the answer to the question. So, uh, it, maybe we don't always realize it and you try to thread the needle. Maybe you can get really lucky. Some of the best NFL teams are the healthiest teams at the end of the year. That's nice. But what strategy do you apply per position and how should you think about that? So briefly, I just want to talk about running back position. When it comes to depth injuries, transfer value for that team, very predictably in the sense that the backup for the team or the committee back generally steps into that role. So, you know, I mean, we've named a bunch of guys this off season, Blake Corum, Tank Bigsby, you know, that there are top tier backups and committee situations that are valuable to target. Menunga is one of them. Kenny Gainwell is one of them. These are draft day targets that you can add, knowing that they're going to have a direct predictable value if the starter goes down. On the other hand, top tier wide receivers, if they go down, the targets on that team tend to scatter around. Not very many teams are the Pickens, CeeDee Lamb situation. So what that means for wide receivers or what this tip kind of alludes to is that it's much tougher to predict or pre-draft the players that are going to benefit from injury, even though you know injuries are going to happen at the wide receiver position. So the way I like to think about it is you can get predictable. Value transfer with depth running back to selections, but the waiver wire is really going to be the place that you win when it comes to finding, you know, a valuable wide receiver. And this is why I like to take swings later on high upside guys at the beginning that may be beneficial to your team. And you can see right away, depth is not fully solved at the draft. That's the point is you can draft a bunch of really good players, but you're going to deal with these injuries. You're going to deal with wide receivers and those are going to get solved. On the waiver wire more than they'll get solved by drafting the next man up type of thing at wide receiver. So the math is tough. The math I don't like. I don't like, I mean, we don't like it right now in preseason, the amount of injuries and things that don't, the unpredictable is going to happen.
Speaker 6It is inevitable. Yeah, it sucks. I do like the idea, just the mathematical reality that stashing more running backs at the end of your bench is probably wiser than the wide receiver. And the wide receivers, because wide receivers, I mean, we, we, we've talked about this before. We'll talk about it again. Um, the rookies get better as time goes on, not first rounders, but the later drafted rookies. There's also guys that come out and know Jawan Jennings last year.
Speaker 2Breaking news.
Speaker 6Oh no, don't be bad. Don't be bad. Don't be bad. Is it bad? It's bad.
Speaker 5Oh, Jaden Higgins is a torn ACL.
Speaker 6Oh man. Houston Texans. He was one of the.
Speaker 4One of the big publicity guys like the Pat Bryant's and Cyrus Allen's. Jaden Higgins talk was that's Texans wide receiver.
Speaker 6That's a, he was, that's a big ball.
Speaker 4That is a major injury for them because.
Speaker 6Was yesterday the sleeper episode? I don't know. Yesterday, this week we had the sleeper episode. I went Jordan Mason, but it was, it was close between Jordan Mason and Jaden Higgins, but then he, he had the injury that stinks. Um, obviously tank Dell now has a shot.
Speaker 5It's yeah. I mean, their depth chart is so tank Dell, which that's a complete wild card of number one. Will he ever really be back? Yeah.
Speaker 4After that type of an injury, you know, there's Hutchinson and other players involved.
Speaker 5Yeah. And then, and their third rounder from last year, uh, Jalen Noel, he, I don't know that he's a player that can like take over for Jaden Higgins. It's probably Hutchinson and the doc, Andy, the slowest man alive. Dr. Schultz is freaking there. He is so there, bro. If you're in, if you're in a tight end premium where you get boosted, uh, reception totals, Dalton Schultz is probably gonna have 80 plus.
Speaker 4I didn't want to start the 10 tips and tricks breaking news, but yeah, the TLDR there, build your draft around starters, spend the back end on running back backups. You know, we're going to have a shot and receiver lottery tickets, and then realize that you're going to need to, you build the team in August, but it's finished up in November, right? You keep the waiver wire going, play the whole season, recognize that you can keep adding like, I think maybe another thought that just hit my mind too, is that like, don't be, don't wait so long to take a shot on guys that, you know, we're going to have chances at the waiver wire to start the year. Just add more and more depth. Never think that you're done on adding depth. I very much agree with that. All right. We are going to take a quick break and then we'll move it on to, uh, one of Jason's picks. All right. We're into our 10 tips and tricks and we're on to number nine.
Speaker 6Mock it like a ding dong, baby. Mock it like it's hot. Mock drafts are exceptionally important. I know our mock draft episodes, people love watching, but you need to be doing mock drafts and you need to know how you should be doing mock drafts. This is one of the most important tools available. To have success in fantasy football. This is why we just built a mock draft tool in the ultimate draft kit. We have it now and our, you know, we've had over a, probably at this point, over 200,000 mock drafts done, um, on our mock draft tool. We've had a lot of feedback. People are loving the fact that you can, you can actually put it to the platform you're playing on and you can, you can use it to where you're seeing what you're going to see. I want to give you a couple of examples of why that's important. First of all, Kyron right now is around cheaper on ESPN than he is on sleeper, like just, just better values. T Higgins right now is round three on Yahoo and a fifth rounder on ESPN. Whereas Garrett Wilson is the exact opposite. You got David Montgomery, a guy that I, in the off season, I was like, I, I, I like David Montgomery. Now it's like, he's a fifth rounder. But then I was like, I was like, he's a seventh rounder on ESPN. That's like, okay. Even I can get with that. All right. Trevo, you know, Trevo's a seventh rounder. He's a fifth rounder on ESPN, a fourth rounder on sleeper. I mean, those are wildly different. So what you do is you use, you, you. Put in the platform that you're playing on so that you can see what the ADP is. ADP affects drafts. ADP, it affects even our, like we make these rankings.
Speaker 4It affects the psychology of every player in your draft when they see the board and they feel like they're passing on somebody perceived to be better because the system tells them that it is.
Speaker 6Yes, and so then once you are doing mock drafts with your platform ADP in there so that you can get an idea, the way that you do, we say this all the time, right? Stay water, not stone. Be willing to pivot. That does not mean have no plan. Don't just know players and have no idea where you're going when this happens. Genuinely, a draft is if this, then that. I go into every League of Record draft knowing if this happens, then I will do that. You know, look at if you don't know where you're drafting from, you should be doing mock drafts from the second pick, the seventh pick, and the twelfth pick because at that point you get to know. Who is available around the 2-3 turn or the 3-4 turn or if I'm in the middle of the draft, you get to know what player types are there. And your first four rounds of your draft should really, maybe even the first three rounds, should really dictate where you go. And it's different for everybody because what you think of certain players, you know, you might be out on Tyler Warren, Colson Loveland. You might be totally in on them and that makes a big difference. If, you know, a perfect example here of, of knowing what your game plan is, is if you do mock drafts, first of all, you should not be just, every time you do a mock draft, it's like, I'm going to grab the, I'm just drafting the players I like the most every time. And then you end up with the same type of team over and over. You need to explore other options. And I have found personally that when I choose to draft Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, if I pull the trigger on them, which I'm happy to do, I hate my team if my first round pick was a wide receiver. Because then in the third round, I'm drafting my first running back. It gets kind of like, I just don't love where it goes personally. So if in the first round, I, I just learned from mocking like, oh, if I ended up with a really good stud running back, then I can grab Brock in the second or McBride and then license to Brock license to Brock. And so you can't get that experience without trying, like take an early quarterback, punt quarterback, just experience. So explore. And I'm telling you, your drafts will be a hundred times better if you spend, and you can do this in one day, you just do four or five mocks from the spot where you are. Or if you don't know, do beginning, middle and end mocks and just have a plan saying, if, if I start this way, the end is good or the end is bad. And you'll have far more success in fantasy football.
Speaker 4Yeah. And, you know, less likely to have those panic picks in the middle of a draft, I'd say as well.
Speaker 5All right, Mike, number eight. All right. These tips and tricks, you know, sometimes we, we, we like to get, you know, in the weeds, like Andy's digging through a bunch of data, a bunch of numbers and analytics and things. My tip is real easy because this is just, this is a reminder. We're calling this tip, mark my words. And it's literally that mark your players, like at the, at the bottom of the draft in the bottom of the ADP. I say this because you're like, Oh, of course I do. It's so obvious. It's real easy to forget, man. Like do it right now. I, you know, we've had several times in our league of record drafts where you're, you're going through the draft. We're in like round eight or round nine. And then a name gets called out and I go, Oh, cause I literally forgot to mark that player. Like it was just, I'm telling myself in my head over and over, I'm going to do this. So I don't forget this player. I never get to marking that guy. So do it right now. Like players who are, uh, lower in ADP that you're, you're interested in, you know, um, like Stefan digs, he's going to be way down at ADP. Cause he just, he's not going to get enough time to climb up the, the actual board, but people are going to know keen and keen and out. Exactly. These, these types of players that, you know, you do want to get value on that player, but everyone else does as well. And just, they can get lost in the shuffle. They really, really can.
Speaker 6And there's, there's different ways you can mock, like mark them. If you've got the UDK, we have, you can, you can literally highlight them. If you're printing a cheat sheet, circle them, go to the bottom and circle them. Um, you, you have to do that. Otherwise you forget the tank. Bigsby is out there and you're like, ah, I wanted to leave the draft with him. And exactly.
Speaker 5And then like right tank Dell, uh, I'm seeing a 16th rounder. You're not going to see him. He's not going to naturally see him. He's not. Yes. You won't just catch them because you won't scroll down far enough. You're going to see him in the middle of it. And other, other teams, other, uh, fantasy managers are going to be targeting those players as well. And you're going to hear their name or see it pop across the screen. And you're going to go, gosh, darn it. I forgot to mark that guy.
Speaker 4Right before your draft, the preceding three or four days news can break. Sure. And that, those guys are not going to have enough time to move up in ADP. Like if, if this Higgins news happens one or two days before the draft, like you said, tank Dell, or maybe it's Hutchinson. Yeah. Maybe you want to raise another player up or Dalton Schultz. You know what I mean? Like just things to pay attention to. It's, it's just being prepared.
Speaker 5It's very simple, but it's, we're, we're all humans and we're all, we all do dumb things all the time. So I'm just, Hey, Hey, just do it right now. Just start marking the players off. Especially if you got the UDK, you know, that will really help to mark them, but just do it right now, man.
Speaker 4Yeah. I mean, I, I do the printout, you know, but in the UDK, you can go mark out, you know, four different types of players. So that they're highlighted.
Speaker 6I mean, if you don't, if you don't have, if you don't have it, then just get a piece of paper and write down the name, just write like the names of those guys, super low in ADP that you don't want to forget.
Speaker 4Yeah. And it'll make you feel like your draft went much better if you steal three or four of those guys at the end. So moving on. Number seven. All right. I'll call this panic free tight end. And this is something that's been emerging a little bit over the last month, I think with some different names, but you know, we've talked a lot in the off season during our top 10, right? And we've talked a lot about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. 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Speaker 6We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. We've talked about the drafts. can look on the waiver wire and see five tight ends that i'm like those are just as good as some of these like maybe they're a point worse or their opportunity is a little less good but it's like not that big of a gap you don't need to freak out about tight ends in the in the middle of your
Speaker 4draft um i like that tip all right uh we are moving on what are we on six is that right six yep cool that because the seven's on the board yeah that's good number six we are moving on we
Speaker 6are moving on from the dusties you can what does that mean that means that the dusty picks at the end of the drafts i see move on from them do not just hold them because of promise of the future what if they're super good well then they're not dust then they're not dusty and you don't need to move on from them but i want to make it i think the the best way to realize this is not making a move is in and in and of itself a move that is your transaction every action has an equal opposite you are you are choosing to keep that player that is a that is an active movement so just just to clarify for listeners you're
Speaker 4talking about the last when you take those shots at guys very very late in the draft you're saying quickly move on from those players when they don't show you something don't don't stay on the promise
Speaker 6that you will see something exactly right and and there is so much data behind this to to just say that you know we're playing on odds probability game and the odds are that those guys who don't do something good in week one aren't going to do something good in the first month of the season it doesn't mean that they won't be good the second half of the season but you can pick them up off of waivers later you holding on to them for the six weeks it might take before they finally show up that's not a good transaction for your team i talked about this on a former tips and tricks episode of take dumps now not later regards to week one and week two um yeah matt takes dumps now and later uh he's he's uh dumps like a truck you know um here's the thing those week one and week two waiver wire pickups they are statistically yeah there it is oh shout out leonard for net uh they're they're just statistically so much more valuable not only because you get more weeks but just because they perform better show up in week one tend to do better here's a perfect example from last year rounds 11 through 15 okay no kickers or defense so that's 60 picks other than you know taking out kickers and defense there were four players of all of them that made an impact in the first month of the season it's just like take how many four four of those rounds 11 through 15 yeah it's just
Speaker 5most of them quarterbacks that's like it makes sense of they're they touch the ball every every game you're gonna know be willing to move on quick
Speaker 6just don't hold on like draft them you got to draft someone in the 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th round that's a rule you have to but if they don't hit in week one be fine moving on now the only exception to that i would say is kind of going with andy's tip of depth those those insurance running backs you know you're blake quorum's gonna be lost everywhere yeah you're not expecting to see something that one you're holding on to so that you don't want to see something that one you're don't have to bid 100 of your fab when and if they have the chance to become a superstar outside of that and i would say especially lower lower nfl drafted wide receivers those guys cyrus allen you talked about him as a sleeper if he's not on the field week one in like you know getting 75 plus percent of snaps punt him off a bridge baxter this thing okay all right it's mike's turn number five
Speaker 5um speaking of quarterbacks the elite quarterback prices are cheaper than ever and you need to understand what's going on with the market because it's fantasy football in the especially in the draft season everything is the market the you know the early years of uh of this show we were completely late round quarterback that was the the the theory the game theory that we subscribe to it to tremendous success it because of i mean a lot of it was just fantasy football players weren't quite fully educated on the value of that you could extract
Speaker 4from the end of of mobile quarterbacks it was a little bit of the emergence of the mobile power
Speaker 5yeah in in like 10 years ago you know everyone well i i gotta get tom brady he's the best quarterback in the league he's gonna be the best fantasy football quarterback of course and it was well actually if you your opportunity cost of of giving up that that first often back then and or a high second round pick is you're missing out on high probability running backs and wide receivers the market has kind of flipped that this year not kind of like it has severely uh right now so josh allen is he's the certified qb1 i think he should be right now he is going five picks later so that's not a that's not a ton but he was about the middle of the second last year yeah compared to last year and this year he's going into about the eightth round pick so that's not a that's not a ton but he was about the middle of the second round end of the second and here's where stuff gets wild the qb2 in adp right now is lamar jackson compared to 2025's qb2 it's a full round and a half later so your opportunity cost is not a second round pick for the qb2 it's it's an early fourth rounder in fact this year you have uh the guys who i think can be up you know the most likely to be the elite game-changing uh quarterbacks the end of that tier is jane daniels and jalen hertz who are going right now in the sixth round the qb5 and qb6 adp wise are going in the sixth so you know i still prefer to go into my draft with the idea of okay i'm not going to burn an early pick um on on a quarterback and really hope that it's the difference maker when i need to be building up my depth like andy was pointing out this year though there's a lot of guys who are presenting very well and they're not going to value at the at the position joe burrow uh a player i love this year i love the bangles i think that burrow can push to be the qb1 this year he's going in the fifth and then they said daniels and hertz are going in the sixth so it's while you you can go into if you're a late round quarterback drafter you can go in with that strategy of you know i'm i'm still gonna wait i'm gonna get value and i'm not saying there's fun guys who are going late of course someone will emerge from that crop because they do every single year but it when you're building your team the highest probability is these early quarterbacks but they're not early round quarterbacks anymore they're now mid-round it changes the equation so it's all about the market it's all about the opportunity cost so just i'd be cognizant of the fact that you're like i'm i'm not looking for a quarterback in the fourth round i normally get them later just just peek peek at that quarterback tab and you might be like holy crap lamar jackson is still there at the turn of the fourth round what i
Speaker 4sometimes just take the value what i've seen a lot in our mock drafts in my experience this year is that josh will go alan will go and then people will kind of wait and then when the next shoe drops on quarterbacks they all go real quick because it like lamar burrow may daniels hertz those guys you can see the like the game of chicken happening a little bit which you know again you you whether you want to do it or not you can see the like the game of chicken happening or not the value so much different is what mike's saying yeah and and look this is adp you got to
Speaker 5know your league perhaps you're in a league where quarterbacks just they fly off early then you then you just chill out because there's like we said there are guys who are going later that are that are fun and they you can see what the ceiling case is you can easily make the ceiling case for a lot of uh these later round guys so just i guess they really you know it's just a an evolution of the solid firm plan that you will that's rigid and you can't uh deviate from it and don't feel guilty at
Speaker 4this point correct taking the quarterback like i we've been in a lot of mocks we had so many years a late round quarterback we get into a mock i'm like i like this guy at this spot but i almost
Speaker 6feel guilty taking a quarterback yeah i feel like oh that's that's not the that's a one this isn't
Speaker 4the way yeah yeah so all right we'll take a break and uh continue the countdown all right our top 10 tips and tricks continue number four all right this one i'm calling the bad old days the bad old days uh this this one was not b-a-t-t-l-e you going to battle no bad bad space old old days space it was o-l apostrophe because because there's a phrase people say the good old days right yeah so this one's like the these are the battle days these are the battle days the battle day i hate you guys all right this was my this is my favorite one because it was a journey to discover these numbers on my own like i i was very curious so i took a look at the last 10 years at the 10 oldest players drafted each year in fantasy okay so that's a lot of a lot of players and i wanted to look which ones were what i'd consider a win that would be exceeding their adp a loss much worse than their adp or a push kind of 10 years worth of data, the 10 oldest players each year. here's the here's the numbers 30 wins 50 losses 20 pushes so a true hit like winning on that pick has a 30 percent hit rate but i was like let's look at it by position because maybe age has a a correlation more with a position and it did the worst bet you can make and it's ironic timing with what with the evans news this morning is on older fantasy wide receivers in that 10-year span they went 7 19 and 8 so that's seven wins above adp so seven a 21 of the time above adp 19 losses below adp and eight pushes so the receiving age cliff seems to be very steep like when it goes it goes we've been there with the julios and aj greens we've been there
Speaker 6with you know so who is that this year that's davante adams yeah i'll give you them all i'll
Speaker 4give you all those so old tight ends in that span did the best but you kind of yeah that's kelsey you kind of know why that's just travis that's not fair i mean he wasn't old he wasn't in the sample for a you know 10 year ago sample but they were six two and one but if you weren't kelsey if they were horrific so if you were a non-elite you were oh and five you never outkicked your adp also one of the things i think that was interesting looking at it is that over the years we've had hall of famers that were older that performed super well and it kind of made us think that old guys perform better than they do if you look at brady breeze rivers big ben fits gore like those were these older elder statesmen that always performed but that's what scares me about
Speaker 6like kelsey even no no no like two years from now dac okay so that's what scares me about like kelsey even no no no like two years from now dac okay so that's what scares me about like kelsey even no no no like two years from now dac because i i love dac i love him forever but it's like we we look at these guys who are playing at 40 brady and and and stafford and go well dac's gonna freaking crush when he's only 37 but it's like is he is he that level is he a hall of fame level quarterback because they because most people
Speaker 4don't well look i'm gonna try to tell you what to pay attention to to try to figure out who will perform if you're an older player one thing to know half of the losses were availability not decline so in other words if you're an older player you're not going to be able to perform injuries were prominent for older players yeah i can i can attest one thing you can pay attention to and we've seen it with some of the older guys recently or one of them especially the encore effect is actually real if a player was old and already performed old they're more likely to do it again so derrick henry travis kelsey those guys if you did it once if you broke the mold if you out kicked the 30 you're more likely to do it again that's something to pay attention to if you don't want to take derrick henry off the board which i won't yes exactly so i will give you here are uh the oldest players i'll give you the oldest players being drafted this year but the tldr is basically that over the last decade drafting one of the 10 oldest players in the first nine rounds lost you money half the time so it's just something to keep in mind um and profitability doing well with the pick old quarterbacks did well travis kelsey did well but this year it's matthew stafford he's 38 years old it's travis kelsey 37 about to be it's davante adams and mike evans travis kelsey 37 36.9 i'm just saying that the fact that he is yeah still out there so like matthew stafford is but so these are drafted in the first 12 rounds this year stafford kelsey adams evans kittle yeah we we kind of we're like excited about him but we forget there's an age component on top of the injury so availability for kittle is going to be a question stefan diggs okay derrick henry and aaron jones so to jason's point yesterday when his sleeper was jordan mason aaron jones at running back that's a tough one because i would not say the encore effect is in place for aaron jones no he hasn't been special
Speaker 6henry it is an old age henry it is stafford it is um i wouldn't have said that kittle probably fit
Speaker 4kittle's just breaking into the older group so that was one where we're going to see but evans and adams i think are the biggest decisions for fantasy players there was a part of this offseason pre-substation jason where i feel like your your
Speaker 6evans has gone yes i was so high down when he signed with san francisco i was like holy crap yeah i love this he's perfect for their system perfect for their quarterback i loved everything about it and then it's just like man he's so old and broken and he's playing next with substation
Speaker 3yeah oh the graphic with no sound that's the second time we've gotten the graphic but jason do it again
Speaker 4what is the sound that a substation makes
Speaker 6thank you yeah well that's disappointing i thought tara mclaurin might crack this list that's why i was really curious if he was so he's not one of the 10 oldest he's 30.9 he'll turn 31 he's not one
Speaker 4of the he doesn't technically fit the uh the age he's a little scared doesn't mean he's fine it just means he's not one of the 10 oldest he's 30.9 he's not one of the he doesn't technically fit the age he doesn't fit the uh the stats so uh there you go do it do with that what you will um we're moving
Speaker 6on number three the hangman is back we are revisiting the dead zone this is the dead zone for running back we just got a question on that yeah and and i i knew this was coming um if you've been playing fantasy football long enough you know about the running back dead zone for years it was like the rounds four through eight and then you're like oh my god i don't know what to do with that they were they were you know not great hit rates to draft running backs because usually what happens in those rounds is people who um they've got a lot of red flags they just get pushed up it's the
Speaker 5desperation yeah it's the oh no i'd have to get a running back here and so you burn a pick on a running back who is only there because the other because supply is running out you're like well well he's a starter so i got to take him in the fourth and you're like you're missing it out on on high level wide receivers or tight end yeah you were and then the last couple years came
Speaker 6and it didn't really work out that way the those rounds weren't just a dead zone and weren't terrible but i think we're back this year looking at adp i think we are uh back see what's what's happened now is you've got a lot of running backs being drafted i mean more than half of the first two rounds are running backs the studs are being drafted very high but what is happening is that is pushing up the running backs and the running backs and the running backs and the running backs lesser good backs into a range that they haven't been the last couple of years um i'll give you a couple examples here the running back 24 in 2024 was in the seventh round the running back 24 right now is a mid-fifth round pick they are significantly higher an eighth round uh pick was the running back 36 in 2024 so that's like a fringe flex play eighth round that's okay um yeah or i'm sorry he was 10th 10th rounder and now he's up in the eighth round this year those those players being pushed up really means i mean part of that part of this is the the correlation to your quarterbacks going a little bit later running backs are being drafted yeah mediocre middling running backs are being drafted higher than they should go and we have a we have a tool uh on the website the value scout tool um it's in the udk it's a really cool thing we came out with last year where it takes our projections looks at basically what the true value would be according to like historical precedent for what you would expect them to be drafted at adp wise and then it compares to where their adp currently is and so there's a handful of guys right now uh that if you look at the value scout tool you just see they're being significantly overdrafted what the expectation of their adp should have been travis hn jr right now is being picked 10 spots ahead of adp now obviously maybe this changes with alvin camara being out for a month uh david montgomery uh right now you know we've got him priced basically 15 picks behind where he's being drafted in adp jalen warren looks like an eighth rounder according to our consensus projections but he's being pulled up to the sixth round on sleeper and tony pollard another one where he's going uh you know he's you know 11 spots ahead of where we project his adp should be you can you can check out more of these players in the value scout tool but this is basically it's not to say don't hear what i'm not saying it's not to say that there won't be any good pick in the rounds four through eight for running back but what it what matters that you need to know is that when you are drafting the running back 24 through 36 you are paying a lot more right now than you have in recent years and if you are it mathematics means that other players at other positions are being pushed down and they are discount better value than in years past so you just got to play the market the pendulum swings back and forth the health of running backs the last two years has just pushed running backs way too high in
Speaker 4those middle rows do you want to know something cool yeah i do heck yeah if you take two awesome running backs at the top of your draft you don't have to worry about that you don't have to worry
Speaker 6about no rb strategy just do just draft great running back i pretty much require two of my first four rounds to be to be running backs and and potentially three because i love to just you know High T? Shotgun those wide receivers for a while afterwards? Yeah.
Speaker 5Number two. We're calling this one Hot or Not Starts. Number two made me think of Matt. I remember that. Oh, hot number two is not a place you want to be.
Speaker 4Oh, goodness. Let's not focus on that. This is a PG show, remember? Rim.
Speaker 7What did he say?
Speaker 5So, we actually, we just fielded a question about this where people were saying, you know, what is the kind of the emphasis on early season schedule? Because we're talking about hot starts and it does factor in. The first month of the season, it carries a lot of weight for fantasy, for emotion, and when also a part of that is like because when you are, when you go 0-2 or 0-3, it's really difficult to not panic because you feel, you feel under the knife. You're like, I gotta make, I gotta make moves here. And you can end up making trades that are just, they're bad decisions. You get on tilt. Yes, you tilt. And we don't want to do that. So, we want to have, you know, hotter starts. So, for a strength of schedule, a different way to look at that, last year, we looked at, we took the data. We had eight teams that were projected as underdogs. This is overall the NFL team. They were projected as underdogs in three, at least three of their first four games before the season even started. Of those eight teams, only one of them won more than a single game. And it was the Jacksonville Jaguars. And that was like, oh, this is the team that people were pretty wrong about. Like, the Liam Cohen effect on the Jags really took them to a different place over those first four games. They won three. They had a positive point differential. That was a great year. Six of those eight, though, bottom ten in points per game scoring. Six of the eight scored less than one rushing touchdown per game. So, it's like, look, the sportsbooks, they're not trying to lose money. They're trying to put lines where they think they can win it. But, these people know what they're talking about. It was Jacksonville, Carolina, the Titans, Cleveland, the Jets, Raiders, Giants, and Saints. It wasn't good. So, I bring that up for, you know, maybe it's going to help you make some tiebreaker decisions. And the running backs from those teams, guess who ended up being a value? Travis A. Chan Jr. Because he's on a winning football team. Genty. Slow start. There was a great game in there, but overall, for that pick that you made, it was a big bummer. Chuba, a couple good games and then it was rough. Brees Hall, it was not a strong start. Kamara, the same. If you're looking at those four games and Tony Pollard, these were not truly like, these weren't running backs that you could plug and play and feel good about. So, let's look at 2026. Who are the teams projected to their underdogs in at least three of their first four games?
Speaker 4Okay. Get the numbers for this year.
Speaker 5It's tough because it's Arizona, Cleveland,
Speaker 4the Colts.
Speaker 6Yeah. That's interesting because Johnny Taylor's splits and wins and losses are pretty wide.
Speaker 5See if you can spot what's going on.
Speaker 4Keenan didn't become favorites instantly?
Speaker 5See if you can see what's going on with you. Okay. Colts. Raiders. Yeah. Dolphins. Yeah. Dogs. They are dogs in at least three of their first four games. And those are first and second round running backs. Taylor. Jets. Brees. Surprisingly, the Broncos are in there too because their opening schedule is tough. But this is not to say that all of those guys, all those running backs are going to be bad or bust picks. It's just
Speaker 6uphill battle. It is
Speaker 5definitely an uphill battle for guys who are going very early in your fantasy football draft. So, you know, when you're deciding, maybe it's a maybe it becomes a tiebreaker for you. Yeah, that's interesting
Speaker 4and kind of sad. Yeah. Because of the players we love this year. All right. We're there. Number one. All right. Our tip. It's always been something a little bit like this every year. Number one is just wipe the slate clean. We all suffer the fantasy. Wipe it. Burns the bad memories and thoughts. Well, Mike didn't have any bad memories
Speaker 6last year. No, no. He wants to keep his slate dirty. But we are recommending to you, Mike, wipe that slate clean. Yeah, let's remember nothing.
Speaker 5Get back to. Hey, that's what I'm doing. You got to move. I won last year. I will remind you that I won last year, but it we're on to this year. I don't really remember that. It's funny. I wiped the slate clean. Yeah, I followed the rule. I was on. I did a guest spot for Tony Reale's show and we were talking about like bad beats and I brought up the how I had Lamar Jackson week one. He takes me up by 1.8 points. They end up going into overtime and he fumbles and I lose and it's like this is a horrifically bad beat. It turns into one of the worst not what it turns into the worst fantasy football season where I'm just getting bad beat and he's like, well, did you ever go back to Lamar Jackson? I'm like, of course. Yeah, of course I went back like you can't when when a player of that caliber is like Christian McCaffrey. There's there are many people last year who are like, I will never ever draft Christian McCaffrey again because of what he did to me. The phrase the
Speaker 4phrase the doozle phrase that people probably used was like, well, I'm just willing to let him be great and I won't deal with. The risk, but they might not think that anymore. Yeah, they might think I wish I had drafted him in it. I'm not saying
Speaker 5sometimes a player burns you and like then they burn you again. It it's just it's it's a new year. The new you when he has a new thank you Jason a brand new you. Yeah, if a player destroyed you with injury last year, just just wipe the pain man. I mean, it's tough, but you have to do it. Yeah,
Speaker 4I feel like Jason's hat is so perfectly blending with these back wall graphics. It's like you know, the deuce the deuces are just like nodding. They don't even have a top of a head. Oh, I mean now, do you need to make a little PSA for people that the other day you had gotten a haircut? Oh, yeah, and people a lot of people was like, oh, so welcome to the
Speaker 6night. I got I got I'm not full. We got bad news for you. We got bad news.
Speaker 3Not bald yet. Got bad news for you. Baldi look at these luscious. He's not one of you. Not yet. All right. His slate is not wipe clean up top.
Speaker 5Am I right? Team bald down bad.
Speaker 3Yeah. Sorry. Baldi's losers. I mean, oh, yes, I love Josh. I love the idea of you just turning horribly
Speaker 6against for sure. If you're balding, you just need to know what a loser. Oh, my God. I mean, man, what are those cul-de-sacs? Oh, I
Speaker 3would never get real. Oh, my gosh. There you go. Hey, one final reminder
Speaker 4here. The Megala Megala ball. It is available entries right now. Grab a draft spot. Come play with us. We'll be playing 20,000 plus players a chance to win the ultimate foot clan for life and a spot in the listener league. Let's set the new
Speaker 6record every year. We've had a new record. Let's do it again. Foot clan. You are undefeated. Megala ball dot com.
Speaker 4Yeah, that'll be so awesome. And then tomorrow we're going to get into bust and value picks. And on Friday, it's mock draft mayhem. So you do not want to miss an episode. It is go time. If you're drafting tonight, tomorrow, soon. Good luck. Hopefully some of these tips and tricks helped you out. We will be back tomorrow with another episode. Take care. Goodbye.
Speaker 2Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot dot com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.
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