10 QB's That Could BREAK Fantasy Football in 2026 (Scott Barrett's Exodia)

Who should be my exodia quarterback in 2026? Who is the number one must-straft quarterback? You can't leave your drafts without. I don't know, but that's why Ryan Heath is here. He's gonna tell me who the best interlate round quarterback is. We're gonna debate it out, we're gonna tear it out. (upbeat music) - Ha ha, let's do this the old chief. (upbeat music) - This is School of Scott, no Theo today. And yeah, first I'd like to talk to the great non-erbal Ryan Heath about his most recent article. He did a deep dive. What stats really matter at the fantasy quarterback position? Ryan, what happened here? This looks like a lot of work it took you. If you could scroll down a little bit and try and see all the different metrics he tested. - Yeah, yeah, I like to kind of re-up this just idea every single year, like remind myself, okay, what's actually the most predictive year over year, just it projecting out fantasy production. And for quarterbacks, which yeah, dove into in this article, as you can see, every rushing metric is highlighted in blue on this chart. So rushing in general is very, very important, of course. Above that is basically only fantasy points per game. So past performance, rushing production, the two biggest things by far to me. After that, I think you can get into like some real life efficiency stuff, whether you want to do that by EPA per drop back, adjusting that yard's per attempt, kind of any of these more like real life efficiency stats, pressure to sack ratio, just like is the guy good enough to say on the field the whole season is kind of how I think of it. So yeah, efficiency overpassing volume at the quarterback position. Yeah, that's just like, I think a good little refresher for us at the beginning as we're gonna discuss all these guys in terms of like what the things we're just looking for are, like what are the things that we want, an exodia candidate to hit. - Right, I think that was well put. I think the absolutely have to be a runner, but in today's day and age, it's like, do we quantify Trevor Lawrence as a runner? I would, Justin Herbert as a runner, Drake May as a runner. They're at the very least on that borderline. They're not Lamar Jackson, but they're up there. And yeah, so that's really the most important thing. It's just this absolute cheat code. It's 10 rushing yards equals 25 passing yards. And what, two rushing touchdowns is equivalent to three passing touchdowns. So of course that confers at advantage over these mobile quarterbacks. It gives you this fantastic week to week floor where if you're good as a passer on top of that, you just really can't compete. If you're like, look at what Matthew Stafford did last year. He had 15 passing touchdowns, more than any other quarterback. And still, you know, Josh Atlin finished as the overall QB1 and he's finished top two in six straight seasons. And I don't know, he was what? Stafford was actually behind Drake May, you know, who at least 15 fewer passing touchdowns, but May ran just a little bit more. But then yeah, the other key takeaway here is efficiency mattering more than volume. That's, I feel like the opposite is true of the other positions where with like, running backs are really just counting snaps. And with wide receivers, we were chasing targets. But with the running back position, if you look on that chart, how high EPA per dropback ranks above dropbacks per game, above, you know, raw pass attempts, like that's really surprising. I will say like, it's great when you have an efficient quarterback who also has volume like Joe, Joe burrow, Joe burrow's bangles ranked second in dropbacks last year, Jacobi presets, Cardinals led the league and dropbacks. They had like, I don't know, 30% more than the Eagles. And yeah, Jacobi preset isn't anything special. It wasn't even a runner, but he finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback and think just about every one of the starts, except for one or two. But yeah, yeah, that is something you have to. And yet we saw that with Drew breeze. We saw that with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, guys who didn't run, but had that obscene efficiency. And so any other closing thoughts in this before we take these takeaways and apply them to some mid to late round quarterbacks and hopefully land on who my exodia quarterback should be. Yeah, I think just quickly on that point with Jacobi per set, we get this kind of every year because passing volume is outside of the exceptions like a Joe burrow where we just know that that guy is going to be near the top of the league and dropbacks per game every single season. And we have like several years of proof of that. A lot of the time like the leaders in pass attempts just end up being more environmentally based. It's because the carnal were trailing by two scores for basically every single offensive snap last year that Jacobi per set ended up with so many dropbacks. And that's like one of the worst and hardest things to bet on or to project is number one, like which quarterback passing wise is going to have that confluence of factors to have that amazing passing volume. And two, who's actually going to take advantage of it in terms of the touchdown rate. Like yes, we get these high end passing fantasy producers every year, but it's almost impossible to predict it in advance and like individually betting on any one of them for that reason. I think it's just much worse than focusing on the rushing upside, the overall offensive efficiency upside, all of that. So yeah, that's just stuff I want to keep in mind. But yeah, we can move into some of these guys who go for it. I had one last meta strategy thing. So this is a tweet you put out. I'm guessing this is research for anatomy of a league winner. It's just something we've talked about constantly is looking back over the years at who are the league winners? Who were the players that really defined a season made the most impact on you winning or losing your league? And if you look at this, stating back to 2017, you really don't see any quarterbacks, which is kind of shocking. And like you don't-- OK, there's 2019 Lamar Jackson. That's a legendary season for a late round quarterback. One of my best calls of all time. You see Jalen Hertz. You see 2024 Lamar Jackson. But I mean, there have been so many super late round quarterbacks to finish top three at the position. That's a big reason why I'm late round quarterback. Well, every single year, I bet on an exotie of quarterback going round seven or later, or really probably round nine or later. And every year, I nail that pick. So why would I waste my time with an early quarterback deferring away the opportunity cost when we want to be drafting running backs and wide receivers? But it transcends even that. It's saying even when you do land on this super late round league winner, Stafford was a free pick last year to finish top three in fantasy points per game. And he still wasn't a difference maker. And so it's only that much harder for round three to seven quarterbacks to matter. And so yeah, again, that's the reminder here is Josh Allen, top two at the position in fantasy points for game. He's not on this list. And so yeah, and him, he's a step above in my opinion by a good margin, Lamar Jackson, a Jalen Hertz, even Drake May, my guy. And so yeah, I just can't see myself taking quarterbacks that early. Yeah, the biggest thing is the opportunity cost. With that list, while it's true that if you go further down to 60% playoff win rate, 55%, that a lot of the quarterbacks that do show up are these top five round quarterbacks. It's like a bunch of Jalen Hertz and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson seasons. When we get to the tipy top, the top 30 seasons of all time, yeah, it's only three quarterbacks. And just the difference between those and just what you get from the weight round quarterback, it is not that high, in my opinion. There is just much more overall upside than going running back or wide receiver. It's easier to draft quarterbacks in the late rounds and get pretty good production than it is with running backs and wide receivers. And I just want as many shots at RB and wide receiver that I can get in those first six rounds is kind of how I'm thinking of it. Just because that's like overwhelmingly where the lead winning seasons come at those positions, it's you're really foregoing like your best and only shots at the highest upside seasons in fantasy if you are opting for that earlier, QB. So yeah, we can basically start our discussion at QB five or QB six or wherever you want to go based on that or if you want to talk about early guys we can. But yeah, let me know where you want to take this. Yeah, just for the folks at home, Exodia quarterbacks over the years. I'll send a tweet to. a trade. Um, 2019 Lamar Jackson, 2020 Josh Allen, 2021 Jalen Hertz, 2022 Justin Fields, all these guys being drafted, QB 10 to QB 20, I finished what top three top four fantasy points for game, 2023, Anthony Richardson, sorry about that guys, 2024 Jaden Daniels, 2025 Drake May finished one vote, finished as the fantasy QB 2 by fantasy points for game, one vote shy of MVP, poor one out for some of the fantasy points subs who would have won. I saw a ticket for 40 K, I saw a ticket for 60 K. So you have Sam Hansen to blame for that. No, just kidding. We like Sam. We're friends. We're friends with Sam Hansen. We don't, we don't want to do that. Um, yeah, if we could pull up ADP here. So we'll just cross off the top five fantasy quarterbacks. We're looking at underdog ADP, but Ryan, please turn off your bestball brain. This is start set. We're talking that start sit here. So that's, that's important to me. Um, so we can start with QB six. Whoa. Okay, I'm, I'm, I'm a little blindsided here by what I'm seeing in ADP a little bit. All right, we're Caleb Williams, QB six, Jalen hurts, QB seven, uh, did not see that coming. Um, Ryan Heath, Caleb Williams, what are your thoughts on him as a potential exodia quarterback? I think you can make a case, right? Uh, in terms of the rushing component, the scrambling has definitely been there. It certainly was last year. I think he's roughly on the level, both statistically and yeah, just how often he does it with scramblers like a bonix, like a Justin Herbert, like not quite as much as Drake made it last year, but that that's like in the ballpark. He runs enough. Uh, it's a high octane offense. Uh, it's not, not a McShanahan offense, but after all, the McShanahan offense is Ben Johnson is probably the biggest, uh, just play collar that we want to buy into and we've wanted to buy into for years. Uh, so I can see it with Caleb Williams. I think the, I really think that the entire question with this team is like, we, and we've debated this for hours throughout our different projections meetings. Uh, this offseason is like, it, it's just very hard to get the bears up to, like a ton of plays, a ton of pass attempts to the point where like everyone in this offense is really kicking and like smashing 80 p's. Uh, I think the reason for that is that someone's probably going to kale, if somebody does Caleb kind of does either way. So I'm okay with it. I just think that maybe it QB six, you can make bets that are pretty similar to this, uh, like six to eight spots down the 80 people, or I think you're just kind of paying a premium for Caleb Williams, but like he, he certainly could, uh, have like that top three fantasy season that that's not out of the question for me. All right. So let's tear this Ryan. Let's tear this, um, Caleb Williams at costs. Where would you put him? Try if you could pull up the, the tier list for us. I think he's like a C is probably where I'd go. I think he's just kind of fine at costs there. Like I, like I'm not avoiding him in best ball. Am I ever drafting him in managed redraft when there's all these other options further down the board, probably not. But like I get why people are into it. All right. Well, I would have given him an F, keep it at C tray, but I would have given this an out. It's just like, yeah, some of Caleb Williams, Hayder, but I dude, QB six was jarring to me. Um, and I just like, I'll just say it, I think Trevor Lawrence is should be valued exactly the same if not even higher than Caleb Williams. And so he's going rounds later. So I really don't like this, but I will make the argument for Caleb, which is, dude, he finished eighth and fantasy points per game last year, despite ranking bottom six in every accuracy metric, catchable throw rate off target throw rate, highly accurate throw rate. So what happens if he's close to the average this year? What happens if he's like good this year? And it's also just like, dude, I am such a believer in, in this offense in Ben Johnson in the supporting cast, it's it's not just an impossible to fail setup. It's like, in impossible, not to be great setup. And like, yeah, he does make some sick throws that doesn't matter as much to me as the consistency. But he also runs, dude, like he, you know, he he had he was the only quarterback to hit 21 miles per hour on a run last year, he had four of the top five speeds by NGS. Ben Johnson's always way up there in pace of play and dropbacks. And so like I don't, he's like a fine fantasy pick. He just shouldn't be QB six in my eyes. And you know, like I'm not like I've been a hater from like a real NFL standpoint, but but certainly not from a fantasy, at least in a vacuum, but at ADP, this is, this is bad. It becomes more jarring when you you look to the next name on the list. And that's Jalen Hertz. What are your thoughts of your hurts, Ryan, is this shocking? I was shocking to me. It is a little shocking. I think we're just all kind of tired of Jalen Hertz. That's why he's the going as the QB seven. Like when you look at Hertz just on paper in terms of every thing, every like box that you want an elite fantasy quarterback to check, he still does. I mean, he is still getting all the design runs. He still has an amazing goal line role. I lose is AJ Brown, but they make other investments in the offense. They add McCyee lemon. They add Eli Stowers, who I know Scott is a big fan of. And they bring in Sean Manion at OC. And I think that might be one of my bigger arguments for Jalen Hertz is the Eagles seem to ping pong between offensive coordinators and quality of play collar every single season. They bring in an outside guy who has success like Kellin Moore. Then that guy leaves. They do an internal hire. He usually fails. And then they say screw this for bringing in another outside guy. Sean Manion's the outside guy this year that they're bringing in from the Packers. He has worked with a bunch of these McShanahan coaches and played for a bunch of these McShanahan coaches. And just what we're hearing from the Eagles has been pretty interested. I think like the discourse has been dominated by oh he wants to have an offense where they throw over the middle of the field more and Jalen Hertz can't do that. But I would ask like what if Jalen Hertz can do that or at least can do it decently enough to wear that that is just a more efficient way to play offense in the NFL. Like all of the we see this all the time in so many different areas statistically. But like in breaking and horizontally breaking routes are like the most efficient routes that a receiver can run in the NFL. And that's kind of what it sounds like this new Eagles offense is going to be built off of so I could see a world where Hertz overperforms what people think of him as a passer. The rushing is still there. And Manion just comes out of this year looking like the next like Wiz kid amazing play collar. Like I just I was like deep diving on some of these quotes and like what Eagles players have said about their OCs historically. Jordan Milotta called him an evil genius. He went on for like three paragraphs talking about he was the smartest guy in the room or the like if you put one guy who was the smartest in the organization in a room, it would be Sean Manion. And you compare that to like what he was saying about well so first of all for Kellyn Moore, he like predicted that he would become a head coach. But yeah, what he was saying about the offense last year was a lot less bullish. So I don't know maybe Jordan Milotta has a good idea like some predictive power here in terms of how good the play calling is going to be. I think there's just a yeah a legit case for the Eagles will be a much more competently run passing offense increases offensive efficiency. That's more goal line opportunities for Hertz. And he's the QB seven because everyone's over focused on the middle of the field stuff. Like I could talk myself into this one a lot more than I could with Caleb Williams. But I'm curious to hear what you think Scott. No, no, you got you got to give us a grade and then I'll give you my thoughts. All right, I will add 80 P at QB seven. I'm going to give Jalen Hertz. What hmm, let's let's go with an A. Okay, okay, I'd say Chris would probably based on our projections. I think right now Jalen Hertz QB three, maybe only a pointer to above QB four, but still QB three in our projections. Chris would probably have him asked here, you have him A tier. Yeah, I think I think I might be in between A and B, but yeah, A sounds good to me. Also, shout out to Chuck Bass in chat, really one of the funniest guys on Twitter. Also shout out to everyone playing the school of Scott drinking game at home. Whenever Ryan's the guest and he says, "Rum, you have to do a shot of rum." So that is two shots of rum right now. So my thoughts on Jalen Hertz just one quick aside about the middle of the field thing is I'll kind of believe it when I see it just because he's had what four or five offensive coordinators throughout his career. And like every single year he's bottom three and throws over the middle of the field. And this was true of him in college. This was a knock. If you read Brett's scouting report on him coming out this, he just doesn't see the field. Well, the big thing to me and we're seeing it on screen right now is you look at fantasy points for game and this highlights why he's a value. Since 2021, he's finished QB6, QB2, QB2, QB5 last year, QB7. So he's priced at his absolute floor. And then you break it down by rushing fantasy points for game 9.2 10.3 8.9 9.8 and then 5.6 last year that actually makes his 2025 season look a lot better. It was a 15% drop off in fantasy points for game, but it was a 42% drop off or 41% drop off in rushing fantasy points for game. And so what why did that happen? A little bit of it is just like the luck wasn't great. Every year he has a ton of snaps from the one yard line and it just kind of declined last year. But more than that, per Jimmy Kemsky, who's really one of the best Eagles beatwriters, he said Hertz asked the coaching staff to remove a lot of the design quarterback runs from the game. And so yeah, that's going to, that kind of explains the whole thing. You look at, you know, leads the league and run in design rushing fantasy points for game every year of his career last year. You know, he got he got brutally mocked by Jackson Dart. And so yeah, that's that's a concern. But good news, he's on the hot seat. This has been like a major talking point all off season is, you know, they're not afraid to move away from him that he needs to stave off Andy Dalton from taking this job. And the Eagles know he's not Tom Brady. This offense is better when he's running. And so I don't think he has any choice, but to bring those design runs back into the game plan. And, you know, not try and be something he's not. So yeah, certainly an ADP beater. The real question though, again, is what we keep coming back to is, is it worth the opportunity cost of a running backer, a wide receiver to take in here? I don't know. You're going to have to read my draft guide to find out we're moving on to the next quarterback, Ryan Heath, who is, um, who is Dak Prescott, which is also surprising to me. Ryan Heath, give me your thoughts on Dak Prescott. So with Dak Prescott, my instant reaction, in my instant reaction, every single year, with this archetype of quarterback that is going in the top 10 is like, oh, we should just fade, right? But one of them things that like has hit the most often is just the pocket passer that had a pretty high touchdown rate and a ton of dropbacks last year and is being drafted as like a top eight top 10 quarterback this year, uh, just fade that guy because those things aren't nearly as stable, uh, as the rushing stuff, right? Uh, I'm not totally sure it's that bleak with Prescott just because I think the league is a little bit different than it was like five years ago when a, when a rule like that would, would have really served us well. Uh, there's just less passing in the NFL overall now. Uh, it used to be that like 16 teams would just want to drop back max every single week as like the most efficient way to generate offense. Now that applies to maybe like three or four teams, uh, and the Cowboys have been one of those teams for most of Dak Prescott's later career, especially, uh, after Brian Shottonheimer came in and took over the offense last year, we just see these ultra high pass rate over expectations, these ultra high, uh, just dropback numbers, uh, and like, Dak even with like a fairly average touchdown rate, I projects like about here or better. I think the upside in terms of finishing as a top two quarterback is probably not there for a Dak Prescott, uh, but the ADP just in terms of can he finish here or higher? I think is not like as bad as I might have said about previous pocket passers just because there are, yeah, he's, it's one of the only teams where I do feel comfortable saying like this is going to be a heavy, heavy pass rate offense kind of no matter what. Um, but yeah, it interested to hear what you think. I would probably put him down below a Caleb Williams on our tier lists like either in CT, CT or maybe like top of D tier right around there, I think. All right, Trey, you heard that. See your D tier. You can make the call. Because ultimately it's just that it's the, uh, it's the upside that I don't see. Like, uh, yeah, I think he will probably not bust and be totally useless at a QB 8 ADP or anything like that, but I just don't see how the path to 22 plus fantasy points per game or a top three finish. So yeah, QB 8 by ADP, believe it or not, he's QB seven in our projections. Um, what do I think? Yeah, this is probably another, maybe I'm just out, maybe you're grading on a curve. Maybe I'm a harsh or greater. Um, he would be a deer and afer me. Um, because like you said, it's just the, the league winning upside isn't there. The top three upside isn't there. And, you know, we are looking at best fall ADP and, and we're saying this is, you know, four start sit leagues. So maybe that, that plays a role in it where again, you know, you look at Chris's projections. Um, yeah, you should maybe meet or slightly exceed expectations. And you look at his track record over the years, you can see why 2019 QB three by fantasy points per game, uh, 2020 QB one. I mean, he only played four games. I don't know how much you want to count that, but 2021 QB nine, 2022 QB six, 2023 QB four, 2024. Don't worry about it. Last year QB nine. Um, and so yeah, he's just kind of like, maybe the best high floor quarterback in fantasy. Um, but that's not what wins championships at the end of the day. So, uh, yeah, I think this is awful ADP for a guy who, um, doesn't have the ceiling that we want when there's, we're about to see it. There's plenty of quarterbacks going after him who have a much higher ceiling. And to me, a very similar floor. And so we're going to talk about one of those quarterbacks next up QB nine by ADP my exodia runner up last year, Justin Herbert. What are your thoughts Ryan? Yeah, I'm much more open to like, a Justin Herbert top two season than I am a Dak press got. Uh, Herbert has the rushing. He ran way more than anybody remembers last year. Uh, just to rattle some off. He ranked first in scramble yards ahead of Drake May. Uh, he was type for fifth in total rush attempts ahead of Caleb Williams. So he, he's like at or maybe arguably even a small step above, basically every QB from a rushing perspective outside of the Josh Allen's, the Jalen Hertz, the J and Daniels, the guys with like the locked in design rushing goal line role. I don't think we're getting that with Herbert, but we're certainly getting really good scrambling. Uh, he's been one of the real quicks. Yeah, go for it. I just get a good set. Over the last two years, Drake May averages only 0.01 more rushing attempts per game and just 1.2 more rushing yards per game. That was a, that was quite the surprising stat to me. Yeah, no, it's a, it's a crazy stat. He, he just runs way more than anybody thinks about him in terms of where we're in. Yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like a weird mind. Yeah. Like a brain thing that we all just forgot for whatever reason. It's like baron steam bears, baron steam bears, one of those. Yeah, that's called exactly. It's the, yeah, I, that is lost on me right now. I forget what that's called. But yes, I, anyways, Justin Herbert, really good washer better than you remember. Uh, also, the efficiency could just be amazing. The Mandela effect. Thank you, producer. Trey. Uh, the efficiency could just be absurd this year, right? We get Mike McDaniel coming over from the chargers. Uh, I have talked about in recent years that basically all of the best values at the quarterback position have been in these McShanahan offenses, the Kyle Shanahan or the Sean McVey coaching tree. Mike McDaniel from that. Of course, we look back at what McDaniel has done with two at a tongue of ILOA. Uh, just the last time he had like an okay offensive line to have led the league in passing yards ranked second and adjusted net yards for attempt. Uh, since McDaniel arrived in Miami to a ranks, I believe it's fifth and adjusted net yards for attempt. This is two at tongue of the lower that we're talking about like concussion guy. Uh, like on a crappy contract where he has to compete with Michael Panics now. Like the NFL is telling you effectively that this is was all McDaniel. This was not, uh, to a that was like creating these insanely efficient seasons. So that's something to get excited about for Herbert. Another exciting thing to get excited about is the offensive line play should be much improved. This year he's getting both of his starting tackles back. Uh, there's a million versions of this split. But if you just look at games where Joe all played, uh, like over half the snaps. That was four games last year. Herbid averaged over 22 fantasy points per game would have been behind only Josh Allen and his EPA per drop back in that sample would have led every quarter back over the past five years. Scott has said that he thinks he would have won MVP. If his offensive line stayed healthy, I have trouble disagreeing. You're getting her at like a lower end, QB1 type of cost with a massive upgrade at offensive play collar. He is still this physical clone of Josh Allen, which I know was Scott's favorite thing to say last year when we was debating whether to make him exodia. I think Herbid's a really strong contender for exodia this year. I'm much more convinced by him than I ever was last year. I know we went back and forth a lot last year on whether Herbid actually had the upside. I think he does this year. I'm just much more excited about the offense. Tell me your thoughts, Scott, but I would have Herbid the highest of anybody we've put on this year list so far. I think he makes my. I have a couple guys that I know are going in the S tier. We'll put Herbid in the A tier, but he's going to be ahead of Jalen Hertz for me. I prefer him as a value. Wow. Yeah. I agree with you on the. This is a rich rebar line. You always want to bet on Mick Shanahan quarterbacks, right? Well, this is easily the best quarterback. A Mick Shanahan has ever called play a swore. What is going to happen? Does he just go absolutely nuclear? I'm with you in that camp. I've debated vigorously with Brett on this. Brett thinks this is actually a negative for him. He thinks Greg Roman was great for him. The mobile quarterback whisperer and we did see Justin Herbert run a little bit more. But Mike McDaniel, a run game coordinator, a guy who loves to pound the rock, a guy who loves to run the ball. But as we did talk about Ryan, as efficiency matters more than dropback volume. So there's that. But yeah, I think it really comes down to this offensive line thing is, yeah, you could pull up the tweet. I did the graphics where it's in games with Joe Alt. He was the overall QB1 by fantasy points per game. This is games that Alt played over 10 snaps, 23.7 fantasy points per game. Efficiency numbers through the roof or as Ryan would say, through the rough. But yeah, it's not just that he lost his pro ball tackle. Joe Alt, he also lost his other pro ball tackle. Rashon Slater and the guys in the interior were an absolute mess. And so yeah, like it's really hard for any quarterback to function like this. I will say when I was traveling in New Jersey for a wedding, the second I landed, I placed two bets guys. I placed Justin Herbert to win MVP and I placed chargers to win the Super Bowl. Because yeah, I'm such a believer in Mike McDaniel. I'm a believer in Justin Herbert's talent. I'm a believer in the supporting cast, which I really like. Any S tier A tier? What was your final ruling, Ryan? Yeah, I said top of A tier. Scott, I do have to ask if memory serves your two bets last year when you traveled to New Jersey, where Drake may MVP and Travis Hunter MVP, is in my right in that? It was something something along those lines. I think so. I actually drove with my wife to Louisiana to place those Travis Hunter bets, which, okay, which was a fun time. You know, so we got some we got some Cajun food, but you know, maybe not the smartest. It was 300 to one. So there was that and, you know, I just want a bunch of money on him winning Heisman. So it was a technically a free rule. Yeah, I just want to say one more thing on the McShanahine quarterbacks because this will kind of apply as we continue talking about them. And I may as well get it out of the way now just to show my work on this a little bit. If you want to pull the tweet up, Trey, basically if you look at ADP expectation, so the fantasy points like that a player will likely score on average based on where they're drafted. All of the biggest like over performing seasons, like the best values, these league winning late round quarterbacks, almost all of them have come out of these McShanahine offenses. We just added Matt Stafford and Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purtie to that list. Last year, it's six out of these top nine on the screen right now. Just overall of the last two years, you have a 22% rate of hitting five plus fantasy points pregame over expectation. If you blindly draft a McShanahine quarterback after the top 100 in ADP, that falls to 7% for the non McShanahine quarterbacks. And everyone on this list that isn't McShanahine is a Konami code elite rushing quarterback or at least a good scrambling quarterback that scores a lot of rushing touchdowns as well with Trevor Lawrence. So that this really is what we're looking at. I can't like overstate the importance of offensive system as we go through these guys. And that really is the biggest thing with Herbert for me. But yeah, we can move on to the next guy if you want Scott. Yeah, next guy, QB 10 by ADP Trevor Lawrence. And as we all know, I've been a long time Trevor Lawrence, Hater, I'm like, every year, they're telling me it's going to be the breakout. And every year, low and behold, it's worse efficiency than Derek Carr. It's, you know, like a bottom 10 quarterback. And no, it was it was halfway through year five. That was the breakout year. He looked legitimately incredible. What are your thoughts on Trevor Lawrence at QB 10 ADP? Yeah, I like the comparison you made earlier to Caleb Williams. I think it's a very similar bet. They probably should be valued similarly. You get this crumbling from both of them. With Lawrence, you also get the official offense with Liam Cohen. His Liam Cohen's fantasy points per dropback over the past five years. I believe we're in second best of any active offensive play collar. He's like, he's like Ben just a cut above even all the most of these other like Shanahan and Mick Vey tree coordinators. So that's what it would come down to for me. If I were drafting Trevor Lawrence is just an overwhelming belief in Liam Cohen. But I don't know. I think similarly with Caleb, like you can tell the story of a top three finish, but I would push it even later. Like we can go a few more spots down in ADP to where I think there are some ceilings that I think are as good or that I prefer. So we can put Lawrence at a B. I don't know. Maybe we do need to like spread out my rankings. Maybe I need to be more willing to say like an ADP is bad like Scott always is. But yeah, we can put him in B for now. Maybe we adjust all these at the end, but yeah. All right. What do you think I have as a known Trevor Lawrenceator? Yeah. I'm going to guess you have him. Well, if Caleb Williams is an F, you probably have Lawrence as like a C or a D would be my guess. I think I think Lawrence is much closer to S tier than he is beat tier. That's where I was on Trevor Lawrence. You look at what he did last year. He was fantasies. Overall QB one over the last 14, seven, four weeks of the season. Last 14 weeks of the season, 23.1 fantasy points for game. That was 1.7 more than Josh Allen. Last seven weeks of the season, 26.4. That was 9.1 more than Josh Allen. These last four weeks, 30.7. That was 16.8 more than Josh Allen. After the teams buy week, he finishes a fantasy QB one and eight of 10 games, finished top seven in six of his last seven. Dude, he looked incredible. I'm a I'm a massive believer in Lee and Cohen as I know you are. And here's the thing a lot of people are missing is like, this is a Konami code quarterback to me. It's a yardage standpoint, like a scramble standpoint, but like here's an absolutely freaking wild stat for you is over the last four seasons. Trevor Lawrence ranks third in rushing touchdowns. It goes Jalen Hertz, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence. He has seven more rushing touchdowns than Lamar Jackson over that span. And hey, rushing touchdowns are worth a lot. So yeah, when I said he's basically Kayla Williams to me, that was, that was, that was a knock in Kayla, but it was also like a massive. It's like, why isn't Trevor priced where Caleb is right now? Because like this is something you and I talk about is like, what are the offenses that really define a season? And you and I both have Chicago and Jacksonville all the way up there where like you and I are losing sleep over Colson Lovelin, Luther Burton, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. Like we know there's going to be a mega league winner there. And it's just like, you know, can we guess the right guy? Well, it's like it's the the syrup over pancake theory with, well, the quarterback is the one getting all the Parker Washington points and all the BTJ points. But yeah, certainly, certainly really, I mean, he just did it last year, you know, so I think it finally clicked for him. And I think like with Caleb, it's something better than an impossible to fail setup. It's almost impossible to not be great setup. For a quarterback who like all the shit I've given Trevor over the years, like, I think he's a better quarterback. quarterback than Caleb Williams is right now. Did I sway you at all? - Yeah, I think I would, you swayed me a little bit. Yeah, I'd agree with most of what you said. I think more like what's keeping him out of the higher tears for me is that there are just, well, there's exactly two guys that are cheaper than him that I like more that I think have similar ceilings that you can make similar arguments for to what you just made. But yeah, I'm certainly open to it. I do think there's, yeah, there's like a temptation to say the bears in the jaguars are the two hardest teams to project in terms of just splitting up the targets in the workload and everything, but no matter what way you split it, if we think it's going to be very good for the quarterback where it all flows through them. So yeah, I can hear that for sure. I think I'm still happy with my B ranking. I think I still prefer Hertz and Herbert, but yeah, that's pretty compelling. - Yeah, I will say Trevor versus Herbert is very tough for me, that's gonna be, and like that's another offense. We can really bank on taking a big step forward. Like I said, MVP, right? So maybe Trevor Lawrence is more rushing touchdown upside, is it enough to give him over the edge of my MVP pick? You're gonna have to stay tuned, listen to the draft guide or read the draft guide. Back to these ADP rankings, Trevor Lawrence was QB 10, QB 11, Pashemar Holmes, one of the best quarterbacks ever. I think he finished top five last year by Fantasy Points per game. Where do you have this one? - This one's gonna be pretty far down the list for me. I do not have that much interest in my homes in fantasy. I haven't for years really. He had a bit of a resurgence last year, just because the chiefs were fighting to make the playoffs. So playoff from homes came out a little bit where he just tends to run and scramble more when he really needs to win games. And we did see that. And he led all quarterbacks in Fantasy Points per game on scramble, that was like a solid one to two points per game, what ahead of what he usually averages on scramble is the past handful of years. And I do think that's kind of explanatory, just of why he had a better fantasy season than we've seen from him since, I think it was 2021 was the last time that he was even close to like a top five, top six fantasy quarterback by Fantasy Points per game. But now it's like he's coming off a lower body injury. We typically see guys run scramble less coming off of that stuff. Ives in terms of the past catchers are not amazing to me, or she writes having to rehab while in prison. They've not made like any big additions for the receiving core. I really thought the chiefs were going to draft a wide receiver highly this off season and they elected not to do so. Instead they decide to pay Ken Walker and think that that can kind of balance out their offense. And that it might in terms of real life, just leading to success, Walker creates explosive plays where big Ken Walker fans here. But in terms of like juicing Patrick Mahomes fantasy numbers, I don't think that that approach is likely to give us amazing fantasy upside. So like if they're not like just completely past first, highest p-row in the league or top two as they've been like basically every season anymore and if the scrambling's not there for Mahomes anymore, like what really is there left in Fantasy Football, there's nobody here that's like routing guys up, winning one-on-one. Like Rishi Rice does his PPR scam thing, which is awesome for fantasy. We love it, but it's not necessarily like creating an explosive offense for the chiefs that's gonna make Patrick Mahomes be top two in the league in passing touchdowns or anything like that. So yeah, I am just, I'm super out on Mahomes. Like I guess you can make like best ball arguments for stacking or whatever, but in managed readraft, I just have no interest in him compared to most of the guys that we're gonna talk about after him. So I guess that's an F is what it sounds like to me. - Yeah, that works for me, Chuck Bass, after he lost Matt Negi on out. Hey, that's a good argument for Patrick Mahomes, but yeah, I mean he didn't, it's been years since he finished top 10 at the position in fantasy points per game. He did it last year, but he had twice as many rushing fantasy points per game as his career average. Every injury expert is telling me he's not running this year. So Ryan, he says F tier, I have no issue with that one. So ever our next quarterback is going to be, I imagine a divisive one Ryan. And that's Jackson Dart at QB12 ADP. What are your unblemished thoughts on Jackson Dart? - I'm blinded, why did I say that word? I don't know. - Go, Jackson Dart, let's hear it. - I see the vision with Dart, obviously. Like when you think about classic signs of the Xodia quarterback that you've just hit on over and over and over again, very often it's quarterback going into year two, who ran a lot as a rookie and has the Konami code upside. And that Jackson Dart certainly fits both of those descriptors at QB12, I think the cost is reasonable enough to want to make that type of upside bet. But I'm not completely sold on it. That's for a couple of reasons. One is just the giants of it all. Like it's hard for me to, I understand he did it last year, was over 22 fantasy points per start with an offense that was roughly as down bad in terms of personnel, arguably in terms of play calling. But it's just really hard for me to envision a quarterback in that bad of an offense with that few weapons with the league neighbors, probably starting the year on POP or worse. It seems like the news just gets worse with neighbors every single week. Yeah, I don't know, I just have trouble envisioning the efficient offense part of it. I think the rushing will be there most likely. My one like possibly negative note on that is that Matt Nagy has basically never let a quarterback run at the goal line very much. And he has coach Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields. Fields in 2021 had his lowest rate of inside the five carries of his career by a ton. It was like 7% that year that Nagy coached Fields and it has gone up to 35% over the rest of Fields' career, which is like where the jaw challenge and the jail in Hertz is and all these elite like fantasy rushing goal line quarterbacks are. So no, like no QB has ever had that type of role with Nagy. He just loved, he loved giving it to David Montgomery at the goal line. I have a feeling he's gonna love giving it to Cam Scataboo at the goal line any time they get there. So yeah, I think like my concerns are priced in to QB 12 ADP, but it's not like so overwhelmingly obvious to me that Dart should be the exodia this year. I would put him, I guess I'll put him real quick. Can you just do? Yeah. B tier? Yeah, like B or A tier kind of on the edge of that. Certainly ahead of Trevor Lawrence for me. OK. Can you just remind the listeners how bad Matt Nagy is? Yeah, I mean, if you there's so many ways to look at this. But Matt Nagy, every each of the past two times that he's entered the year as a team's offensive play caller, he has given up those duties mid season by adjusting net yards for attempts by fantasy points per dropback by it. Like any efficiency stat, he is the worst play caller of any, of any like 2026 active play caller of the last five years. Patrick Mahomes is efficiency has very notably like gone up and declined just based on whether Matt Nagy is anywhere near the team. He's always been better without Nagy around. So yeah, there's just a lot of reasons to think that Nagy can just be a complete anchor on this entire offense. That's kind of what I'm grappling with more than anything else. Maybe you can make an argument for it if he gets fired mid season. And that's when the Jackson Dart and the Giants upside comes in. But that's a little scary to me to bank on a first year offensive coordinator getting fired like as part of our upside case. But these are the things you have to think about legitimately with the Giants this year. Yeah, so let me make the pro argument. I think a little bit better than you did with Jackson Dart is if you just throw out the Vikings game, which was a really weird game. The the the lost Andrew Thomas early in that game. And it seems like they would just like we're like, yeah, we're going to hope that Zach Wilson throws or JJ McCarthy throws more inner picks sixes than our quarterback throws passing touchdowns. It was something like the at three times as many runs to every pass in that game. But if you just take out that one Vikings game, Jackson, Darryl, average 22.5 fantasy points per start. That would have led all quarterbacks. That would have been more than Josh Allen. Yeah, he only attempted 13 passes in that game. And so he did this without his star wide receiver. I know the vibes aren't great on Malik neighbors, but he's probably going to play more than the 25 snaps he played with Jackson Dart last year. Dart also, you know, again, Konami code. He averaged 9.3 rushing fantasy points per start with that Vikings game excluded. That's more than Josh Allen has had in any season of his career. I was just talking with Dan Doug in about this. He was like, no, no, no, no, that's not going away. I know he was constantly in the blue medical tent, but they're not going to shy away from that. You know, and Jackson Dart himself keeps having these quotes that are like, hey, you know, I'm not Kirk cousins. I'm not Joe Flacco. I'm a runner. And so I look at this QB12 ADP and I see a tremendous value. I see a ton of upside for a player. I really have a ton of belief in like I I thought what he did was remarkable. I did not think the Giants should stick with Joe Shane and move on from Brian Dable. It's just risky to me with a quarterback who looked as good as he didn't year one. But I mean, like that's that's a real question is like, hey, is was Brian does Brian Dable really deserve a lot of credit? I know we're worried about Matt Niggie, but it's like, look at what Daniel Jones did with Dable and then did with without maybe it was just Jackson Dart, you know, rising above, you know, this really bottom three supporting cast with all the time that Andrew Thomas missed with all the time that Malik neighbors missed. Fricking one deal Robinson who you know I hate things stinks was like the only guy, the only body. And so so much of this really comes down to is he Matt Niggie proof is Matt Niggie really the worst offensive play caller of all time. And there's like legitimate evidence to suggest that he is. He does have Greg Roman as the unofficial run game coordinator who has a ton of OC experience, particularly with hyper mobile quarterbacks. Like I would I would be asked here if Greg Roman were the play caller tomorrow. He also has Brian Callahan as the past game coordinator. So there's some smart people in the room, Jim Harbaugh too. And you know, maybe something to fall back on, but like like Matt Niggie just screwing this up is is a real consideration that haunts me. So this is how I'm thinking about it. Again, we're not I'm not naming my ex odia quarterback on this show. You don't get that for free, but we're going to talk it out and we're going to get to hear who Ryan thinks I should have is my ex odia quarterback. And maybe it's this next one. It's it's a guy you and I are always, you know, waving the pom-poms for. And that's Brock Pertie at QB 13 by 80. Yeah, I think Pertie is the best candidate so far that we've discussed. I'm going to rank him in the S. He doesn't run. What if he doesn't run? Yes, he does. He's he's one of the he's one of the he's like a really good scrambler. He's like a touch below Justin Herbert and Drake May and those guys, but he does it enough compared to like like a bonix or like yeah, guys like kind of in that range. He scrambles enough to me where it's yeah, it's he's not just a pure pocket passer. It hasn't mattered in terms of fantasy points per dropback over the last three seasons. It's the top five is Brock Pertie and then Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jay, Jackson, it's all it's Pertie and all the runners. What to whatever extent he doesn't run as much as these guys, he just makes up for it in pure efficiency and scoring. It's the ultimate Shanahan offense, of course. It's it is literally Kyle Shanahan. He's top five by every single efficiency metric over the last three years. EPA per dropback, he leads fantasy points per opportunity. He's top three fantasy points per game like all of these. He's just top five top six and yet every year, ADP just treats him as this fringe like high end QB2 and it never really makes sense. All the mix and in stuff that we were talking about obviously applies to him. He average over 30 fantasy points per game in the fantasy playoffs last year. That was behind only Trevor Lawrence, by the way. So maybe another like upside argument for Trevor Lawrence to throw gas on that fire. He has as many 25 point games as Joe borough and Justin Herbert over the past three years. Like I don't know. Pertie to me is just when he's on the field, he is scrambling enough to be a high end fantasy QB1. The offense is always awesome. I adds Mike Evans this year, the best fighter see ever that Kyle Shanahan has had since prime Julio Jones, the news and what just the vibes on George Kittle are generally good in terms of it. It sounds like maybe he'll return earlier than I would have expected. They're saying we can I don't know if I believe that, but if he gets Kittle for a lot of the season, that's a huge massive win. If you just look at the 49ers offense, it's just over Kittle's career in terms of what he means to that offense. Like I just all the pieces are here to me for Pertie to just continue being a top three top four fantasy quarterback. He goes later than all of these guys we've talked about. He's like he'd be like bottom of S tier for me, but I feel really, really good about him. S tier, that's what we're going with. That's what I'm saying. All right, all right. Hey, let it be known fantasy points will forever be a pro Brock, pretty website. I feel like I'm perpetually, so I don't think he's S tier. I don't think he has that. I mean, maybe he does. I think like great ADP, but beater for sure, like best ball, like guaranteed to smash this ADP. Does he have the overall QB one upside to warrant S tier? I think probably not, but let me just make my pro argument for Brock, pretty. I feel like I'm perpetually 1.5 years away from saying that Joe burrow is just Brock, pretty with better PR because if you look at the statistics, that's true. I know that sounds like an insane take, but if you look at the statistics, that's absolutely true. Since 2023, here are the leaders in fantasy points per game. One Josh Allen, two Lamar Jackson, three Jalen Hertz, four Jalen Daniels, all the guys who run, five Brock Party, six Joe burrow. So he's ahead of Joe burrow for the last two years, with the last three years, Brock, Party leads an EPA per dropback. If you look at any of the advanced metrics, he smashes Joe burrow, he smashes Patrick Mahomes and just about everything except Mahomes wins and pressure to sack. Joe burrow wins in accuracy, but you know, Party's second place in those stats. And yeah, it's it's also like, let's not forget. He's kind of been dealt with a raw hand like we the jokes we make about the nuclear reactor next to San Francisco's practice field. But it's like how awful they've run with injury luck is is legitimately insane. Over the last three years, Brock, Party, CMC, George Kittle and Trent Williams have been on the field together for only 28.5% of San Francisco snaps. We're not even talking about Debo Samuel, Brandon I you Ricky Pierce, all just the core four. And on those plays San Francisco averages 0.3 EPA per play. New England last year led the league with 0.13 like it's it's just insane how potent and deadly this offense is and can be when it's firing on all cylinders and everyone's healthy. So even if I probably disagree with the S here, like let it be known like I am I am such a Brock, Party fan. And yeah, it's it what did I say? It's why would I take Caleb here when I can take Trevor Lawrence with this pick? Why would I take Joe burrow at that pick when I can take Brock, Party here? I wouldn't I I'm I you know, Joe burrow it would be D or F tier for me. And Jackson dark, by the way, maybe he's maybe he's a white Jalen hurts too. That's that's something I like making those comps because that's really kind of the way to think about it is you're always looking for these arbitrage opportunities. And I legitimately think that's a great one is Joe burrow versus Brock, Party, especially in these best ball leagues where where stacks matter. And so the next quarterback in this list, I think is another one we might be fighting about that's Boa nix at QB 14 by 80. Yeah, I'm extremely into nix as well. For some similar reasons to Brock, Party by re I think the most natural comparison is kind of Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence like these quarterbacks where the scrambling is there has been there. It nix has 5.3 rush attempts for game over the past two years about 20 scramble yards for game. That's top 11 including the postseason. He runs like enough to where I think he's in consideration. But the biggest thing for nix is I think the dropback volume will be very strong and I think the efficiency could also become very strong for him in year three or there's at least a world where that happens. I just I under understand that when you watch Botanix, it does not scream like, wow, this is an amazing quarterback that is super pleasing to my eyes right now. I am with everybody who thinks that. But like by the stats, Botanix has been a really, really good quarterback through the first two years of his career. And you can credit all of that to Sean Payton. I don't really care how you allocate the credit out for that. But yeah, Nix over the past five years is first of 58 quarterbacks in pressure to sacri ratio. He's on a top six list with a bunch of Hall of Famers, Josh Allen, Patrick Holmes, Tom Brady, right? By EPA per dropback through in initial two seasons, he is fourth since the 2021 rookie class behind only party Drake May, Jaden Daniels, all these guys that go much earlier for the most part, right? Nix averages over 19 fantasy points per game across his 36 career starts. It wouldn't take that much. It would take Jalen Waddle coming in as finally like a kind of speedy number one weapon, more so than just a court in Sutton going and winning on the boundary. It would take Nix to like just get a little bit better at playing the quarterback position. And all of it could kind of click. We've heard Davis Webb, who's gonna be the Broncos new play collar, say that he wants to be really up tempo, just giving us more reasons to think the dropback volume could be really strong for Nix. I think just in the system, there are outs to Nix finishing as a top four, top five quarterback, at a later ADP with just a good amount of scrambling, a ton of efficiency. I'm like, yeah, I'm into the idea, I guess, is what I'm saying. Does he quite get to like rock party for me? Probably not. He's gonna be in the A tier, maybe right behind Jalen Hertz, or now I'll put him behind Herbert as well. So yeah, A tier, end of A tier for me, but I'm very open to it, I guess, is where I'm at with Nix. And I don't think you are really at all. - I think he's tricky. Yeah, so I don't think he's very good. Like if you look at the stats and you could pull this up tray over the last two years, just the efficiency has been pretty awful, but like it hasn't mattered. Like he led the league and dropbacks last year, he finished eighth and fantasy points per game as a rookie and he finished 11th last year. And so the argument is like, all right, well, if instead of being bottom seven, an accuracy metrics, what if he's middle of the pack? What if he's better? So the same argument we made with Caleb Williams, and why wouldn't he be better? You're adding Jaylen Waddle to this offense. I just said he led the league and dropbacks last year. Well, this new offensive play callers coming in and he wants to be even faster by pace of play. And so that's a pretty great advantage to a guy who's shown his floors somewhere around low end QB1. And I'm just like a tremendous, massive Sean Payton fan and believer, you look at his track record over the years, just about every quarterback he's had has been QB1 or better, a lost drew breeze. You couldn't throw farther than 15 yards down field. Russell Wilson, Trevor Simian, James Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, all guys who are lower caliber talents compared to Bonix, who were averaging 17 plus fantasy points per game with Sean Payton. So yeah, I mean, you just have like a confluence of factors here. You have the upgraded supporting cast. You have a new offensive play caller wanting to push the pace of play. You have a guy who runs enough. And so yeah, I think he's gonna beat this ADP. I don't think he has the upside really to get me excited about him. But so I would have had him lower in my tears, but certainly not mad at him either. I think we can just disregard ADP for the remainder of the show and just hand pick out our two late round favorites and I'm guessing we have the same two late round favorites. So Ryan, what are your thoughts on Kyler Murray? - Yeah, I'll be honest, I'm a little afraid that this is where I'm at in the year 2026 that I wasn't on my bingo card or whatever they say, but yeah, I think Kyler Murray would be my number one exodia candidate right now if I got to choose who the exodia QB was. He just hits both of our two biggest factors that we care about the most for late round quarterbacks, which is does he run, is he in a mix and a hand offense? He hits both points. I feel like every year with Murray, since he tours ACL in 2022, like every off season, it's just been, okay, let's grind all these interviews to see if this is the year that Kyler starts to run again. And I had kind of given up on that by last year, even though he was saying that he was going to run again that he wanted to run more. And that is what happened in the admittedly, like the whatever it was, like the five or the six game sample that we got of Kyler before he was whatever soft benched injured, shut down, what have you. I, yeah, he hit career highs at least since that 2022 season in rush attempts per game, in rushing yards per game, second in scramble fantasy points per game, or type of Josh Allen for second in scramble fantasy points per game. He was up there on a per game basis with the league's elite rushing QBs and just in terms of output. And then we get him on the Vikings in this Kevin O'Connell offense, where every quarterback that has passed through Minnesota save for Jason McCarthy, and I guess Max Rosemar has been at minimum solid for fantasy, right? Just looking at Carson Wentz, Nick Mullins, and Josh Dobbs have averaged 18 fantasy points per game across 12 games in this Kevin O'Connell offense. Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, of course, hit even bigger heights and yeah, Kyler runs more than any of these guys that I just mentioned. With Kevin O'Connell, the biggest thing that you get is the pass rate in the red zone. He consistently ranks top two or top three every single season that he's been in Minnesota. He just loves to throw in the red zone. Part of it is that they don't have much of a run game. That it seems like they want to rely on, but that's great. That's kind of like the Matthew Stafford X factor from last year where he was just constantly throwing inside the five. I think we could get that with Kyler this year. And if he's dropping back and he can't find anyone, then he's scrambling in for the touchdown inside the five, which is even better. Yeah, I'm just really into this whole idea. It's gonna be like a transition for Kyler. I don't think it's like a sure thing that this works, but we haven't seen Kyler really play under center very much over his career, which he's probably going to need to do more for O'Connell, but we've seen in the sample we do have Kyler's efficiency go way up under center as it does for a lot of quarterback. So I there's at least enough reason for me to think that this could work out. I guess like arguments against it are a it's Kyler Marine the year 2026 like washed into a kind of prove it type do it do or die type of contract like are you still a starting QB in this league like there's certainly risk there. I don't think Jay Jim McCarthy is coming anywhere close to ever winning this quarterback competition or anything like that. But there's like a world where the Vikings are out of it at the end of the year type of deal, I guess if all this doesn't work. But yeah, I think that's the exact type of bet I want to make on a lead round quarterback where if it does if it's clearly not working out for Kyler in the first three weeks fine, you you could be you play the waiver wire. But if it does that it's clearly like top three quarter back upside to me. Yeah, just because of the rushing and because of what we've seen out of every everyone else saved for the like bottom 10% tiles of quarterback play in O'Connell's offense. And so this is an S tier for you. Yeah, this is an S tier. This is the highest of that I'm going to rank anybody. Should it. Yeah, should have finished with that as well. Yeah, well, we didn't even say the ADP the ADP is QB 17. So you might have the benefit this year of being able to draft two Xodia quarterbacks, right? You could go with a party and a Kyler Murray. It sounds like that's what Ryan wants to do. And hey, if both hit, you could trade one of those for a running back or a wide receiver, just some stats to help your arguments. Since 20, since he came into the league in 2019, only three quarterbacks average more fantasy points per game. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, QB 17 by ADP. My favorite, you know, Rando to smash with Kevin O'Connell was Nick Mullins. Three starts with Kevin O'Connell, 303, 411 and 396 passing yards. You could also go with Josh Dobbs. You like got off a plane on a Wednesday and then scored 27 fantasy points that Sunday. you know, as a backup. My whole thing with Kyler, and I think this is real. This is 100% real is that I think there's an effort issue. I think he's Gen Z's Jay Cutler. I don't think he cares about football. And my evidence for this isn't that every year Call of Duty comes out in November and all of his numbers declined by 47%. It's really that, you know, let's not forget, it's a lot of the quotes that have come out from players and coaches. Players saying, you know, to to Rich Semini, hey, you do not trust me. You do not want Kyler on your team. That's not something you it's Brian Shotneimer, a head coach who said, yeah, you know, we wanted to Kyler to run, but he just wouldn't do that. Um, it's the fact that when he signed his extension, they put it in his contract that he had to study game film, at least an hour or a week. And then they got bullied and they like took it out. But it's like, why the heck would you put that in there? Unless he just doesn't get so, but maybe this is an argument in his favor because the talent was always there. And now he's playing on a league minimum contract. He's hitting free agency next year. So he wants to pull out all the slots, the stops. He wants to get his final payday. And so maybe we see, uh, you know, Kyler Murray go nuclear, uh, where the gap is through the roof and it, you know, the talents always been there and the supporting cast in the play collar. So I like this. Um, I have only one more late round target. Uh, do you disagree? Is, I think you know where I'm going with this. Is there anyone else you wanted to talk to talk about before we got there? Uh, yeah, other than the guy you're about to ring up, I don't think there's anyone else like super worth considering and manage. There's, there's like bestball guys I like or whatever, but yeah, we're not talking about that today. Okay. Uh, that's Malik Willis, uh, QB 21 by ADP. What are your thoughts? And this is another guy who might not be starting week one. Um, I mean, he probably is. He most certainly is, but you do have Quinn. You were getting a ton of hype. Uh, so, you know, maybe 25% chance, 20% chance he's, he's not sorry, but that, that's more than most. And that's driving why the ADP is so low, but it's not something we care about. It's like, Hey, if he's not starting week one, it's fine. We'll just cut him. It doesn't matter. Um, what are your thoughts on Malik Willis? Right. And what's here for the, for them, not all say first for Malik Willis, for them to not start in week one after the contract that they gave him would be like inconceivable to me on a dolphins team that is expected to win like two to three games this year. Like why would you not just take every chance to see if that contract is anything like that? They're, I don't, I don't buy any idea that yours would be starting week one. Uh, but yeah, I'm interested in Malik Willis. Uh, I think you'll be in my eight here, uh, maybe exactly where that is. We'll be influenced, uh, by like where this discussion goes. But if this were like 2020 or 2021 and it was still like the golden era of arguing about NFL analytics on the internet, uh, you would hear way more about Malik Willis is EPA than I feel like we have at all this off season. Uh, over just in terms of EPA per dropback last year, or sorry, over the past two seasons leads the NFL and EPA per dropback, uh, almost double that of Josh Allen over this time frame, like 25% better than Lamar Jackson's 2024 amazing season by EPA per dropback. So yeah, when we've seen Willis, uh, in like a few starts in some partial games with the Packers, he has been electric, uh, real life efficiency wise, right? Not, not just as a rusher, but also even as a passer. So there's like legit, interesting kind of upside there in terms of how he's performed. Uh, EPA has been actually surprisingly good at spotting actually good quarterbacks on these small samples. Uh, we just had it on the screen. But the, yeah, small sample years since 2021, it's Malik Willis and then it's Brock Pertie, uh, as a rookie and Sam Arnold with the Panthers in terms of the best small sample EPA per dropback numbers, uh, over the last handful of years. So there's like a good, uh, like history of this dad actually kind of mattering in the way that we would want to use it for Willis to say maybe he's actually a really good quarterback and he elevates his offense. Uh, and then like the, obviously the biggest thing with Willis is, is just the rushing, right? Uh, leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per opportunity over the last two years, 23.6 fantasy points per start with the Packers. Uh, 53% of his fantasy production came on designed runs like this guy is just like a fantasy football dream in terms of running the ball. The like biggest like drawbacks are a, the dolphins did not set this guy up for success in the off season. I cannot believe that an NFL team is going into this year with their projected top pass catchers being Malik Washington Greg Dullsich and three guys that they drafted in round three or later, like what, what are we doing? Uh, he's, this man's been left out to dry. All he has is Devon H and as like a real receiving game weapon. Uh, I think H and it's great. I don't think H and it's going to go line up at X or anything like that. So that, that is like one, uh, downside. The other downside is just will there be enough play volume, uh, and passing volume for Willis to hit like elite fantasy numbers. Uh, he has two games in his career above 20 pass attempts. The career high of 23 pass attempts in a start. Uh, we've got Bobby Slavic here calling the plays. Uh, he has reminded us throughout the summer that he is the run the damn ball guy. Uh, of course he would want to run the ball with this personnel. I don't really blame him, but that just slows down the game creates fewer plays, fewer dropbacks like that's like a something to consider too. Uh, I think overall Willis makes a ton of sense as a like last round kind of dark throw at the quarterback position where, yeah, maybe he's on waivers by week two or week three, but the upside it on like a 10% chance that this dolphins offense actually kind of works is he's just an instant top three fantasy quarterback. So yeah, I'm open to it. I don't think it's like the highest chance of hitting, but if it were to hit, it, it would be like top three fantasy numbers in the range of outcomes. Tier it for me. Yeah. I think he's back of, I think he's the back of a tier for me. Well, I think of Kyler's S tier. I think Malik Willis is S tier as well. It's, um, it really reminds me so much of Justin Fields, his sophomore season, the year I went in on him as my exodia quarterback where it's like if he sucks at real football, he's still going to be like, what a low end QB one at worst just because he runs so much. Uh, and then like, what if he's decent? What if he's okay? What if he's good? What if he's great? Um, or what if he just runs that much more? You know, this is like you said, it's a team that's going to win probably two games. The receivers all suck. And so maybe he just runs even more. And so like, yeah, it really reminds me of Justin Fields that year. I went in on him as my exodia quarterback. He finished top five at the position of fantasy points per game. After the first month of the season, he was averaging like 27 fantasy points per game. If you just take out that first month or so, uh, yeah, I pulled up the, the tweet I had is, yeah, if you look at him, I know it's a small sample, but if you look at it by fantasy points per dropback, fantasy points per start, fantasy points per four quarters, it's like super LMR levels of production. And I know it's a small sample. I know it's a much better supporting cast in green Bay. But yeah, that gives you a hint at the upside for a guy who's basically free and drafts QB 21 by ADP. Um, yeah, per four quarters. He's basically running 64.3 rushing yards per four quarters. Marjacks and 56.2 over his career. And so it's kind of insane that with Kyler and with Malik Willis, you have these quarterbacks with legitimate overall QB one upside, even if Malik Willis sucks. He has that in his range of outcomes. He could be bottom five and pass rating and have that in his range of outcomes because of the hypermobility. And maybe he's good. This is a guy that Brett Whitefield had an extremely high grade on coming out. Round one caliber quarterback according to him. And hey, he just got paid a bag like he's a round one caliber quarterback. So like you had bone nicks in the eight year. I don't, I don't see the overall QB one upside that he has relative to some of these guys going much later. So here's, here's why you, you stayed to the end. And I think this is a really important takeaway is everyone wants to hear my exota a quarterback, right? A lot of people just pay money just to see who that is that there are guys who don't even play fantasy football anymore. They're just like, hey, I just, I just want to know who it is. And it done. What I'm going to tell you is it doesn't matter. Like, you know, we always have to be Ryan and I pride ourselves on like honesty first and foremost and full transparency. And I'm telling you it doesn't matter because look at how freaking deep this quarterback quarterback is this year and how tight it is among these guys where it's you could just throw a dart and hit on, you know, a guy who at worst is going to be like as good as everyone else. You know, it's like you're not going to be at a disadvantage. Like it's almost impossible because you know, we're talking about Malik Willis and Kyler Murray. There are leagues where those guys are going undrafted. And even if it's not them, it's like, hey, well, maybe we're wrong and maybe, maybe Daniel Jones, who you and I both really like from the bestball perspective ends up being a mid-range QB1, which is where he was before he got hurt. And he's free off waivers. So you have the safety net to fall back on. And you have upside there as well with potentially Daniel Jones, a Kyler Murray, a Malik Willis. And so this is what we always talk about. This is what we'd let off the show with where you and anatomy of the league, whether it's its positional value, its positional scarcity. It's, you know, it's a 12 team league. I guess 12 starting quarterbacks in your fantasy league, but there's 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Whereas with the running back position, there's, I don't know, 30 fantasy starting running backs and there's 32 starting running backs in the NFL. But a lot of those guys are in committees or suck. And so the positional scarcity. And it's also just typically the quarterback position. One, it's not very predictive. Outside of like Josh Allen, there's a lot of fluctuation. It is predictive in the later rounds where my exodia hits every year. That's another reason to go. And so it and it's also scoring is relatively flat after the Josh Allen's in the world. And so all these things stack up is, you know, a lot of people dying to know my exodia quarterback. I'll just I just don't think it matters a whole lot this year. And like that's what anatomy of a league winner backs up. But particularly this year, I can't remember so many options. I could pick as my exodia and feel good about. Do you agree with that, Ryan? I'd agree. But I guess my only addition there is that I feel this way most years. I think we were saying basically that last year, as we were debating between Drake May and Justin Herbert and like a few other guys, like there are just always a lot of good late options to wear not only does it not matter that much, which one you pick in a one quarterback league. But it's I think it's more important that you wait long enough to give yourself the upside outcome of I hit on my early wider sewers and running backs and I hit on my late round quarterback that that's like the optimal outcome compared to yeah, you can draft whatever Jaden Daniels as the QB three or the QB four. And maybe he has the Josh Allen S season. But do you prefer that to hitting whatever JSN in round three or round four last year plus late round Matt Stafford or Brock Perty or Trevor Lawrence or whatever. I think you're always better off kind of arbitraging that way. So yeah, because of that, it's much more that I'm going to be pushing this year. It's like just wait on the quarterbacks. I kind of messed around last year with like, oh, maybe it makes sense to take one of these elites early, but I'm much more firmly in the camp now and going forward. I think that you just need to wait just because there are always so many good options. Yeah, the nerd alert just dropped to comment. I think Murray will flop S tier while sorry guys. Yeah, that's exactly the wrong way to be thinking about this is like I don't care if he flops like like the bigger mis to me is drafting Bonaix QB 14 and he finishes QB 11 like that's not helping you win your championship. That's not helping you even win weeks. And and like that's a way bigger mis to me than if I drafted Tyler Murray much later and he's a flat out bust. He averages six fantasy points per game where he loses the starting job. That's fine. I can just quickly cut him. It's and that's why we need to chase upside. That's why you need to read upside wins championship is an anatomy of a league winner. It's what is really driving championships at the end of the day. It's those power law outcomes. It's those at the quarterback position. You want overall QB one upside. And if they don't have it, I'm crossing their name off my list. But anyway, I hope you enjoyed this. What is it? School of Scott where you come when you want to get a PhD in fantasy football. I think that's always especially the case when Ryan Heath comes on. So Ryan, thank you for coming on today. And thank you everyone else for tuning.