10 Fantasy Football Secrets Vegas is Telling Us in 2026 w/ Tom Brolley and Joe Dolan

Fantasy Football Daily is back and we have an awesome show today. Everybody, we've got 10 secrets that the Vegas numbers are saying about fantasy football in 2026. I've got my guys Tom Braille and Joe Dolan here to help me break it down. Tom, Joe, let's get into it guys. 10 secrets that Vegas is saying about fantasy football in 2026. Real quick, I've got to say that a lot of the numbers that we're going to be talking about today, they're not our projections first and foremost. They're Vegas lines sourced by Draft King Sportsbook. And one thing to keep in mind with these projections, that they're median projections. They're not really looking for ceiling outcomes. And Tom, you could speak more to this. I mean, I think in the past, these books have gotten kind of smoked on unders. They seem a little sharper this year. Yeah, they've definitely over the last couple of years. They went whenever they first became legalized in a lot of the states and in the late 2010s. They were setting the lines way too high and the successful betters were going in and hammering the unders. And you've definitely seen the last three years, but even more this year, they just keep sliding them down a little bit. So if you are one of these people who likes to go out and maybe bet some overs, this is the best time to do it for season futures. But I still air on the side of caution a little bit. And if you look at our fantasy points projections, we definitely bake in some misgames for every guy. We have a standard two games missed for every player. If you're a little bit more injury or just be careful, but the books have definitely lowered their totals compared to years past. They definitely have. And one of the ones that caught my eye immediately was this Traverse ETN rushing projections. 77, excuse me, 700, 4.5 yards, just basically like, I don't know, 50 yards, 25 yards ahead of Jadarian price, who's a rookie and then we're all kind of, I don't know, not necessarily concerned about price's role, but have some questions whether or not he's going to take like a full workhorse role. Guys, Traverse ETN is going on the third round. And to me, I think this is a really low projection for a player that you're going to have to spend, you know, a third round draft pick on. Joe, what do you think of ETN this season? I know we're kind of high on the sands, but this does feel low, right? Yeah, and by the way, Graham, don't forget, HAN is the business director. Sorry, I'm going to keep screwing that up. Yeah, I got to get that right. I know it's like, it's old habits are hard to beat. You know, that reminds me of like, back when the fillies, I'm a fillies and I hate Aranola with all every fiber. Speaking of no Orleans and no, but it reminds me like, they had a prospect named Dominic Brown and all the time they were spelling it Dominic like, you know, everybody spells Dominic, but he actually spelled his name Domonic. And he just was scared to tell people because he was young and he was shy. And I think that's kind of the same thing with Travis HAN. But at fantasy points, we have HAN projected for 948.6 rushing yards. And I almost wonder if Vegas is, I don't know, do they, they must think that Alvin Camara is going to be doing more in this backfield than we presume Alvin Camara is going to do in this backfield. Alvin Camara obviously has a big name. He's a fantasy football legend. He's, he's cashed a lot of checks for people. But I have a hard time seeing Travis HAN go under this number that that Draft Kings has set for him if he is healthy. I mean, they gave him a big time contract. They did not sign him for pennies. You know, this isn't the Rashad White deal in Washington. This was a three year real money and no funny money. Well, because the Saints finally got themselves out of cap hell. This is a three year real real contract here. And I don't know if I'm going to get to the window with a Travis HAN over just because I don't know the Saints. I know we're high on them, but could there be a little bit of regression? I'm always scared about the hot team, you know, who everybody's talking about. But I would have a hard time seeing him go under this number, Tom, because of what the contract the Saints signed him to. Yeah, it's, it's all comes down to Alvin Camara's status. And it seems like the books are baking in. We've been a little bit like more cautious. We've been kind of watching what's coming out of New Orleans. But sportsbooks have kind of thought that Alvin Camara is going to be there. And as the summer has gone along here, it does seem like the two sides are a little closer. And they're maybe they'll come to some sort of agreement on some sort of pay cut for Alvin Camara. But it does seem like he's going to be in the mix. And Joe, he's always had a huge role. I just don't see the Saints like totally like benching him, you know, giving him like five touches of game. If Alvin Camara is on this roster, I do think maybe it's, you know, every third series or maybe they give him passing situations. But I do think he's going to have some sort of role here. So I think that's why this number is so low. Alvin Camara has always had a big role in this back field. And they're anticipating him stick around and having some sort of role next to Travis H. Hand. Yeah, to that point, we have Camara projected for just 10 games. And with that projection, we still have H. Hand at RB 17 behind Javante Williams, behind Josh Jacobs, behind Jeremiah Love, players that are all going in a similar ADP range. So we are a little lower on H. Hand. I will say real quick before we move on to Saints. Have the third largest team improvement in terms of their implied projected points per game. They're projected to score more than a field goal than they did last year or year over year. This is going to be a good offense. I think we're buying into this offense, buying into the high volume. But I am a little concerned with the-- excuse me, I'm going to keep doing this H. Hand this season at this cost. Try, let's keep it moving here. We're going to reveal our ninth secret here from Vegas. And this one surprised me as well. We're going to talk through some running back teammate battles here really quickly, guys. And this Vikings back field is basically like, it's just been a factory of sadness for the last two years. Really with this team, I mean, there's really not been a fantasy asset that we can rely on weekly. And I kind of feel similarly this season, the markets have definitely priced it that way. Jones and Mason are both going well beyond the ninth round in all fantasy. Four mats. However, Jordan Mason gets the edge over Aaron Jones here just by a little bit. Jordan Mason projected for 649.5 yards. Aaron Jones, 624 and a half. Tom, do you have any lean, any idea of like, do I want to be invested in this back field? I feel like you and I were saying this last year where we're like, man, I want to buy into this Vikings back. But it feels so gross because it's going to be a split and it feels very similar this year. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference from how these guys were used last year. And I also have like at least a small concern that maybe they even add to this back field a little bit later in the summer, especially if they have any kind of concerns with Aaron Jones. He is getting up there in age a little bit. But I really have stayed away from this back field. If I am taking chances, it's Aaron Jones. His ADP is kind of right around the Rashad Whites and the other backs that are going off the board about 120 picks in. But Mason's, we're well below this. His Vegas is projected line. We have him for just over a little bit over 400 Russian yards in our projection. So we're like an Aaron Jones a little bit more than Jordan Mason. And yeah, I've been kind of avoiding this back field for much of the summer. Yeah, we're low on this team's rushing for sure. Vikings have been more pass heavy than most people kind of have really kind of grasped onto. I think in the markets. We only have Aaron Jones projected for 676.2 yards or basically right in line with his Vegas line. Yeah, I'm fading this back field again. And you bring up a good point, Tom. They certainly could add here for sure. I mean, it's not like either of these guys are long term bets. They might want some more just a better backup there. The long clayborns also here. That's too rookie that has some juice. And we do have a pretty solid projection for him for 310 yards, which does feel like it might be a little bit on the high side for him. But maybe that, how he performs in training camp could be a deciding factor if they do add anybody else to this back field with kind of late in the summer. I was in on Jordan Mason last year as kind of like a late pick. And I still stand by the process, but the problem with Jordan Mason was his propensity for empty calorie touches. And of course, the quarterback play was worse than we thought it was going to be in Minnesota. Looking at Jordan Mason's breakdown, he scored 10 or more fantasy points, PPR in just six games last year. And in five of those six, he scored a touchdown. So he was entirely touchdown or bust. His expected fantasy points, he top 10 fantasy points just three times and expected fantasy points. So if he was not getting a carry near the goal line, Jordan Mason was an absolute zero. And so I haven't had any interest in Jordan Mason. I've probably taken Aaron Jones a handful of times, just like maybe on a team where I need like a really low end RB3 based on my build. Because I feel like they're going to preserve him. You know, he can play on third downs. He's still actually really good around the end zone. He's been a great touchdown score. And just maybe a bet gram that the quarterback position is going to be better and upgraded with Kyle and Murray, which will take this offense to the next level. I think that's Jordan Mason. that's Jordan Mason's best case scenario, right? Kyler Murray takes this offense to a higher level and he becomes like lower case Lagerit Blunt and maybe he pays off in fantasy in that regard. - Yeah, I've actually been leading in a little more towards Mason if I'm gonna take one of these guys just because like you mentioned Joe, he's got that touchdown upside. Where's Aaron Jones at this point in his career. He's gonna be in a goal line split situation plus like I've been saying, I mean, Vikings were the most pass heavy team inside the 10 last season. That could regress a little bit, but I also think that's just a Kevin O'Connell tendency. Both these guys are going, just for fantasy, they're going in the same pocket as Ducorri Croskey Marit and Rashad White. I think I'd honestly rather take a stab on both of those running backs, just slightly better projected offense with significantly fewer quarterback concerns there. All right, the eighth secret, we're gonna be looking at another running back teammate battle that was really interesting to me when I pulled this is the Steelers backfield here. They got Rico Doudel clearly as the lead back here, 749 and a half yards. Jaylen Worns basically projected for 600 yards on the dot. Joe I'll kick it back over to you, man. Rico is pretty interesting. We know Jaylen Worns gonna play a ton no matter what, like he's just guaranteed to get half the snaps 'cause he's so good on passing downs. But this one surprised me. What have you been doing with this backfield? - I've been drafting both of them. I know that's kind of wishy washy, but Rico Doudel's kind of carved out a role in each of the past like two seasons here. And like last year with Caroline, there was a pocket of the season where he was like a weak winning type of player and then he disappeared. I wonder if it's gonna be similar here in 2026, which would make these guys kind of better best ball players. Again, as I always say, everybody's better in best ball, but like just like a better best ball pick than somebody you want on a managed roster. I think it is interesting though. We are projecting Pittsburgh to be a very run heavy team. And we're also, we have Caleb Johnson in the dirt guys. We have both of these guys. - The Steelers do too. - Yeah, I forgot about him. - Who's Caleb Johnson again? I said, I don't even know. - Everybody was like kind of been like, "Oh look, Caleb Johnson's getting first team reps "in like mini camp and neither doubt "along nor Warren were there." And that's why he was getting first team reps. But we have both of these guys projected to go over their numbers. And we have Jaylen Warren projected to go significantly over this number. So Jaylen Warren, good football player. I just think he's somebody that the Steelers like, but he got Kenny Gainwell last year. So I say Kenny Gainwell puts a hex on every coach who comes around him. Every coach loves Kenny Gainwell, which is why I've been drafting Kenny Gainwell a ton in best ball. But nonetheless, with Kenny Gainwell gone, man, Jaylen Warren, this seems like a really low number, Tom. You know the Steelers better than I do. - Yeah, I don't think so though. I think they kind of have this red right. I think, where is this going to sound? Jaylen Warren kind of moved into like the Najee Harris role last year as like the lead runner in that back field. And Kenneth Gainwell kind of took over the passing stuff. I think Jaylen Warren is going to move back into the Jaylen Warren role. The role that Kenneth Gainwell kind of occupied last season. And we're going to see him in more of those passing situations. But I think it's the more appealing role based on what we saw last year with Aaron Rogers and his propensity to want to get the ball out quick, low eight out throws, check downs. So especially in half PPR and PPR leagues, I think Jaylen Warren's the better pick. But I think people have started to catch up to that. His ADP has really surged, at least in the best ball drafts, I'm in on underdog. He's going in like the low to mid 70s now, where he was kind of in the low 80s. A couple of weeks ago. But I do think Warren, I think he's going to have the more valuable role. And Caleb Johnson, we have him in the dirt. But if he does earn some type of role, I think it would be at the expense of Dowdell. If he gets, I don't know, like six carries a game, eight carries a game, I think that's probably going to hurt Dowdell the most. I think Jaylen Warren's role is a little safer here in Pittsburgh. So the number, there is a discrepancy here with the rushing yards from Vegas. But I think it's directionally correct here. I do think Warren's role is going to be, it's going to be a little weaker in the running game. Yeah, we've got Warren projected for 40 catches, easily top 20 among running backs. I like that call out that he's going to take over, the old Ken Gain little role. But let's not forget, last time Mike McCarthy was a head coach, Colin Plays, he gave Rico Dowdell a huge role, like 235 carries. Dowdell kind of had that breakout season and there's zero RB season for the Cowboys. I've been drafting both as Weljo. I do lean, I do lean more towards Warren because I just think his floor is so high. And I've always just been a Jaylen Warren fan. I'm perfectly fine admitting that bias. One more running back teammate battle we've got to talk about is this Patriots backfield. And this one was not as interesting and like as like shocking to me as the Dowdell one and the Vikings backfield, Trevion Henderson just slightly edging out Ramondri Stevenson in the projected rushing total. Henderson 699.5 yards right at 700, Ramondri right at 624 and a half. By ADP, Trevion Henderson has been steaming up slowly but surely all summer. Joey's now in the early 50s going around Devon Tse Adams, going around Dave Montgomery, Jameson Williams. But first and foremost, what are we doing with Trevion? Because Ramondri had the huge playoff role last year, man. It is so tricky. I think this is like a massive bet on upside, right? Like that's what everybody's chasing here. I haven't been able to get myself to click on Trevion Henderson either. I can't either. And it's terrible. It's terrible. Because like you saw those games that he had last year. And if you squint, you could see like Devon H&N level explosiveness, like fantasy matchup changing, like matchup tilting upside. And by the way, guys, not for nothing. If I were to tell you Trevion Henderson had 911 yards and nine touchdowns last year, you probably would tell me I'm crazy. Because of like how we were kind of like fighting this thing all year. But that's what he had. And like clicking his name over somebody like Devon Montgomery, who I think is just going to be slow and steady wins the race, type RB2 for the Texans this year has been impossible for me. But I don't have the confidence in myself to say, I am 100% right about that. Because again, you look to those games where Trevion Henderson, there was one game in particular. It's escaping me who it was against, where basically I was doing the game day show on serious XM. And I said to Paul, up, there he goes again, there goes Trevion Henderson. I think it was the game. Yeah. It was, I think it was the Bill's game, a game they lost actually. He had three rushing touchdowns in that game. And I was like, there he goes again, Trevion Henderson. And like do you see why the the Patriots invested a second round pick in the guy? But Ramanjary Stevenson, once again, doing the little things, you know, catching the ball well, or getting three yards when three yards is blocked for him. And Mike Vrable amongst his other interests is really into Ramanjary Stevenson's ability to kind of keep things on schedule. But this scares the hell out of me, like passing on Trevion Henderson. Like I understand why people are drafting him. I just haven't been able to get myself to pull the trigger on that. Yeah, Henderson's been really tough for me. I've really focused on those wide receivers in that bucket there, in that fourth round, fifth round. I've been trying to really try to get at least one or two backs in the first three rounds of my best ball drafts. And I really like the wide receivers in that fourth round. So in his price does feel like it's a little too high. And Stevenson, once again, he's kind of affordable. He's right in that Jalen Warren bucket right behind, like Chuba Hubbard. And if you don't want to click on Hubbard or one of these other backs, he's very affordable. So I've been gravitating a little bit more towards Stevenson. But it does scare the hell out of me. I mean, if Henderson does get this backfield alone for any stretch of time, he could be a lig-winning type of player. So there's definitely a balance. I've been trying to click on him a little bit more here, but I know I'm probably going to be a little bit underweight on Henderson just because of his ADP. But he has the mass of the upside here that Stevenson, if he gets the backfield by himself, he'll put up some good weeks. But I don't think he's necessarily the lig-winning type of player. To both your points, I mean, yeah, if Ramondray misses any time, I mean, Trevion Henderson, he's going to be top 12 easily in our weekly projections, probably top eight some weeks. But I mean, you look at the four games that Ramondray missed last year. Trevion, 36% of his entire rushing total last season came in those four games. And then Ramondray came back. And I mean, they gave him just a massive role. He had 48% of the snaps or more in final five games. And then during the playoffs, he was their lead back. Got 60% or more of the snaps in every single one of the games. So it would take a lot. It would take a lot, I think, for Trevion to completely ether Stevenson. I didn't pull this for this exercise, but I mean, Ramondray was so good in the passing game last year. I think that was a bit of a surprise to me, is that when he came out, I thought he'd be a massive asset as a pass blocker. He got Drake Mayblown up a couple times, so he's gonna have to prove himself on passing down his well. to kind of earn this role. Switching gears, let's talk through some receiver teammate battles. Kind of the similar exercise where we're looking at teammates that have either muddy or very similar projections. This one was really interesting. Luther Burton is projected for more yards than Roma Dunes A by about 25 yards. It's very, very close. Burton projects for 824 and a half. A Dunes A basically right at 800. We didn't pull a Colston Loveland for this as well, but Loveland, he's third among all tight ends and yardish projection at 799 and a half. I just thought this would be interesting to talk through these receivers though. Tom, I'll throw it back over to you. We talked a little bit about O'Dunes A yesterday myself Ryan and I did. Just going through basically the bull case for him, the bear case. And I think this is actually definitely a part of the bull case for Burton that the median projections by drafting sportsbook slightly prefer O'Dunes A. I think the other interesting aspect of this is O'Dunes A has doubled the average depth of target that Luther Burton does and these books know that. And they're still projecting more volume and more yardage to Burton. Yeah, that's the concern here. We need Caleb Williams to just frankly be a little bit better through more catchable passes down the field. And I think that's why I like Luther Burton a little bit more. He does get a lot of those. And not with DJ Morgan. He should probably see even more of these design targets passes closer to the line of scribbage areas where Caleb Williams can be a little bit more accurate. That's probably my biggest concern. If Caleb Williams does take that big jump though, if he is a little bit more accurate and improves in his third season, I think that probably helps Roe McDones A. the most. So it's one of those like are you betting on Caleb Williams to make a big jump this season? If you are, then I probably would prefer to get Roe McDones A because that probably means he's going to be more accurate down the field. But I have not projected that big leap for Caleb Williams. I have been-- my favorite of these three guys has been probably Colston, Loveland in that fourth, fifth round turn. If I don't get one of those top tight ends early in the draft, I've been selecting him there. Luther Burton is probably my second in Roe McDones A is third right now. But it feels like one of these guys is going to hit in a big way. I've been trying to get pieces of this bear's passing game if I can. But Colston, Loveland has kind of been my favorite so far. Yeah, so Colston, Loveland, Ryan Heath, by the way, in his article earlier this off season, breaking down who, finding the next Jackson, Smith, and Jigba, the big breakout. He obviously touched on the bears. And his opinion was, well, if there is a next Jackson, Smith, and Jigba on the team, it probably is Colston, Loveland. Because Colston, Loveland, when the bears used three or more tight ends last year, he had a preposterous, 53% receiving yard share, just absolutely ridiculous. And by the way, this is going to be one of the big questions for the bears, because it looks like they are going to continue to do those heavy tight ends sets. Well, they still have Colcombat on the roster. And they drafted Sam Rauch in the third round. So they are going to invest in these multi-tight end sets. And the big question about these bear-wide receivers that I don't know if we're going to be able to answer just yet is DJ Moore, when they ran three or more tight ends, he was the single receiver more than half the time on the field. So if they're going to be doing that, are they going to prefer burden? Are they going to prefer Odinze in those sets? Or are they going to kind of split it down the middle? It's a small sample. But when they ran three or more tight ends last year, burden had 10 routes run and Odinze had nine routes run. So they kind of split it down the middle, preferring DJ Moore, who ran more than 24 routes, more than double either of those two guys. So that is going to be a big question to answer. And I don't know if we have the data to break that down. And that's why there's going to continue to be a burden versus a Odinze to be. That's a great point, Joe. Interesting. And theory, I think it should be Odinze, just because he is the deep threat. But yeah, I mean, the usage last year, it's pretty surprising for burden. Tom, I'm just with you on burden. And I agree with your order on Lovelin burden and then Odinze in terms of priority. I've been saying this all off season, DJ Moore getting pretty much all of the design screens last year. He had 17% of his targets were on design screenplays. And obviously that's his entire game, his design screens. He's going to get even more of those this year. He's going to be the shallow crosser guy and get a ton of these just kind of PPR scam targets. I think if there's anybody who could have a Rishi Rice-type like season, where he's catching 80 balls, has 900 yards, and also scores maybe 10 times, could be Luther Burton, just because he's so good with the ball in his hands and so good after the catch. As I've gotten more and more into my off season research, I have gotten more and more excited about Luther Burton. All right, this was a really fun exercise. I've really, really enjoyed going through the receiver team at Battles. We've got two more. This next one though is definitely the trickiest one to talk about. We've talked about this. I feel like every day on the serious exercise. I know. So it's-- All right, we got to do one more time. One more time. One more time. One more time. It's just the Jags receivers now. I mean, this is-- it's probably the most painful point in drafts, because they all go in a similar range. Jacobi Myers is the third favorite. He's also the third favorite by Vegas projected yardage lines, Parker Washington projects for 750 yards, Brian Thomas, Jr., 724 and a half, and then Jacobi Myers right at 700. This is going to make Scott very happy. He is a Parker Washington fanboy for sure. And the Vegas kind of agrees with him, but it is really, really close to Joe. Really close. I have been leaning towards BTJ. I kind of made the bull case for BTJ with Ryan yesterday. Where are you at with the Jags receiver room? And have you preferred any of these guys at cost? Yeah, probably. My preference is probably just for Washington and Myers, just because of-- I just trust them more in the short to intermediate area. And it's hard for me to ignore how Trevor Lawrence finally looked like the prospect he was supposed to be when they acquired Jacobi Myers and then started using Parker Washington more. But like Tom mentioned, we have been talking about this on Sirius XM so much every day that I feel like my opinion has changed every day, just because every news item is what are we going to do with these Jags andville receivers? Oh, and by the way, their fourth receiver is a high-smotrophy winner. In case you're wondering about that. And they just extended their tight end. They just extended it for years. And they're going to use multiple tight end sets. They drafted a blocking tight end in the second round. So it just feels like-- honestly, in that regard, it kind of feels like Graham, you were talking about a Dunzeh. If they're going to use multiple tight end sets, you want a guy who's going to stretch the field. Well, that's going to be Brian Thomas. That's what they have said. Brian Thomas is going to be the guy on those downfield routes. And that's not new. You know, as Brett Whitefield pointed out on Twitter, 40% of Brian Thomas' routes last year were of the vertical variety post-corner go route. So that is how they used him last year. So he kind of probably leads the way if they're going to do multiple tight end sets. But I cannot ignore how much better Trevor Lawrence got when they used Jacobi Myers. Jacobi Myers, by the way, based on the Motion Man's graphic there, is 11 1/2 feet tall. His head's up the corner out of the screen. But if Trevor Lawrence was so much better when he was throwing the ball to Parker Washington and Jacobi Myers, are the Jaguars just going to ignore that? Because they want to follow the recent trends and show how smart they are by drafting a blocking tight end in the second round of the NFL draft. I can't imagine that's going to be the case. So Washington and Myers have been my favorites to draft. Myers is the cheapest and really as Paul Kelly has been saying on fantasy football morning, maybe the answer is just draft Trevor Lawrence. And I'm trying to reap the benefits. Yeah, honestly, this situation is so murky that a lot of times I go into drafts. I'm just like, I just want to get one of these Jaguars, wide receivers. It doesn't really matter when. I just want to grab one of these three because it does feel like one of these guys is going to put together a massive season. I probably have the most of Jacobi Myers. I don't have my best ball shares in front of me, but that's more because of his prices so reasonable. And he's actually started to fall outside of the top 100 picks here in some of my most recent drafts. So but the problem with him is I don't think we know the book on Jacobi Myers. He's not going to be one of these league winning type players. He's one of these guys. But we kind of love for Reed, right? Just plug him in as your wide receiver three. Don't really have to worry about him. He's been a week to week, but he's not one of these guys that's going to necessarily win you a championship. So I've been leaning a little bit more towards Parker Washington. I do think there's a little bit better connection there. And if you look at the last time I looked, there are eight odds. Parker Washington's eight on it. It was not. It wasn't like it was like just a strict slot receiver, seven, eight yards down the field. These were running a lot of those deep crossers and He really trust him in those situations. So I've been leaning a little bit more towards Parker Washington over Brian Thomas in that section of the draft, but I honestly probably have more to Kobe Myers than all three out of those three guys. Yeah. Parker Washington weirdly gets typecast as this like slot only kind of like shallow target guy, but not like he runs like he runs awesome in breaking routes deep down the field. Like that kind of unlocked their offense last season. But Joe, to your point, we were just talking about the Bears and multiple tight insets. The Jags are definitely going to increase their two tight insets this coming season with you know, strange and boarcher last season Jacobi Myers easily led this team and routes in multiple tight insets. So that's like two or more tight ins on the field with 109 routes. BTJ had 62 then Washington had 49 and I think that's like my only real concern with Washington is like not only is he probably going to be taken off the field in 12 personnel, but we've also got this Travis Hunter situation where he could play probably 25 or 30% of the snaps. I've been saying for two years now that he's a better full time corner. I think to this roster after they added Myers and Washington kind of had this late breakout. Yeah. Hunter dude, Hunter, he should just play full time corner at this point. That's their need is exactly it. It's the second. I don't have the water fever need anymore after after kind of hitting on Parker Washington and then trading for Jacobi Myers. So I they're going to continue to they they I guess they have to kind of justify moving up to select him at number two, but man, it feels like some point in the middle of the season. It just be like he's full time corner. I fully agree. And you know, last year was it was a different situation to code. Myers wasn't on this team. Parker Washington was a distant distant afterthought. And you're just right person. Oh, wise Hunter is by far more valuable to this team as a corner. Okay, one final receiver team at battle. Then we'll get into the top three secrets that Vegas is telling us about fantasy football in 2026. Yeah, we got to talk Broncos receivers. And this one really made me happy because I have been a massive Jalen Waddle bowl. Not only has he is he out projecting courtland, so it's by a significant margin. We've been talking all of these team battles between pretty close projections. This one is significantly significantly wider gap. Jalen Waddle projects for 874 and a half yards over draft King sports book. And Sutton right at 800 Tom man, I've been super excited about Waddle. I think he just gives them a dynamic they really haven't had like Sutton. Obviously great clasher, great contested catch, very good vertical threat. But Jalen Waddle man, like on those crossers and in breaking routes, he is so good after the catch and so fast. I think he's going to be a perfect fit in this West Coast offense. I am very, very excited about Waddle. Right now man, Waddle is, I think he's way too cheap. He's kind of come up in price. He's going at the end of the fourth round now. He was kind of going in the early fifth round. He's going in a bucket with Mike Evans, Terry McClaurin, Jameson Williams. I think it's the right price, but I'm still like, I still think Waddle has like back end wide receiver one upside in this offense. I guess I've been a little bit cooler on Waddle. I like some of the receivers that are being selected around him a little bit more. Maybe I'm going to be out in the island a little bit, but I kind of love Mike Evans this year even though he's had some injury issues recently and is an older receiver. I see his ass metrics and I just see him playing with Brock Purdy now. A very accurate quarterback and getting Kyle Shanahan to scheme him open. So I've been selecting him. Terry McClaurin, I love his situation. And I also love Devonte Adams, who's being selected kind of right after Waddle. So I've been a little bit cooler on Waddle and Jameson Williams who are all going in that similar type of bucket there. But I get it. I mean, they went out, gave up a first round pick, gave up some significant capital to go acquire him. And I think they want to integrate him into the offense very quickly and kind of make him the number one guy. So it makes a lot of sense to me. And I just worry though, I do think Cortland Sutton isn't just going away. I do think he's going to still be a right around like a 20% target share. But maybe this passing game is a little bit more condensed. That's kind of what we've been hoping for. Sean Payton has called the offense in the first couple of seasons and he loves the rotate in a bunch of different receivers. They still have Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims. But maybe with Davis Webb calling the plays, maybe it is a little bit more condensed with Jalen Waddle and Cortland Sutton this season. Yeah, Cortland Sutton by the way, guys, his ADP on his ADP on draft Kings is in like what, the seventh round, somewhere around there. And underdog by the way, also in like the seventh round. And Cortland Sutton to me has always been a guy who's like, I compared him last year to getting socks for Christmas. Like, you always need socks, but it's never that exciting to open up a pair of socks for Christmas. And he turns out he comes out bonix plays a little bit better than you think and and Sutton has himself a strong ear. He's up there in age 30, which is one of the reasons they traded for Jalen Waddle. But do you know that Cortland Sutton's like top three or four in the NFL over the last two years in end zone targets? Is that going to change? Like even if his role in general goes down, is Cortland Sutton being one of the leaders in the league in end zone targets and converting those into touchdowns? And ultimately the object of the game is to score touchdowns and Cortland Sutton has proven he's good at that. And Sean Peyton trusts him to do that. I know investing in a Sean Peyton offense for fantasy is always a nightmare just because of his his constant desire to show you how much smarter the new he is by using Lil Jordan Humphrey then down at the goal line. But I wonder if there's a little bit of value in Cortland Sutton as a really boring like wide receiver three wide receiver four at a relatively affordable ADP. He's somebody who's produced better than that the last couple of years. Yeah. I mean Sutton's just tricky to me because he goes in that same pocket as all these Jags receivers mean minus you know BTJ and in Washington they're kind of all in that same pocket. Washington BTJ going in the mid 70s early 70s Sutton now has backed up into the 80s. I guess my main thing with Waddle last year man, I mean like even with a dead to a and his kind of crappy crappy dolphins offense like he was he was awesome last year. 29% first-reed target share borderline wide receiver one numbers. He's commanded the football every time he's been on the field. I hear you on Sutton being a touchdown score but he's also really never had any competition for those hands on targets at least until this season Sutton last year 25% first-reed target share even playing with significantly worse target competition in my opinion. I do wonder you guys bring up a good point about the Sean Payton kind of receiver rotation but I genuinely wonder if he's just like so sick of that too and he's like God I got to get two good receivers that I can just trust on the field at all times. Yeah Troy Franklin had some nice you know moments last year Pat Bryant had some nice moments last year Marvin Memme same thing but you know Jalen Warren is just a totally different player. Okay Garrett Wilson the third secret here is Garrett Wilson is going to have a monster season. I've been very bullish on Wilson he has a 999.5 basically a thousand yard receiving projection last season obviously was a lost year only played seven games because he was injured. They're basically saying hey this guy had three 1000s you know yard seasons in a row to start his career and he's certainly in line to have one again this season. He is 14th and projected receiving yards Tom but just wide receiver 20 and 80 P. I think it's a twofold thing nobody's really excited to draft the jets. I mean this is the worst projected offense in the league this season by Vegas implied team totals and yeah Gino Smith just spent all of last season not playing particularly well throwing a lot of picks. But you know he's kind of got that Jamest Winston vibe man he throws picks and you know give it over to the other team and you know shorten up the game a little bit you know the team gets the ball back and the jets get the ball in offense and yeah honestly that's not a bad thing for fantasy. It's not for Gary Wilson. That leads to more volatility more you know potential shootout games and Gino Smith hasn't been afraid to let it loose and give his wide receivers opportunities so it's funny. I do think this offense is going to be much better than we saw last year. I think Gino Smith went from being like a little bit you know overrated in Seattle to that now I think he's leaving Las Vegas. I think he might be a little bit underrated coming to New York because because of just how bad it was out there but I think a lot of it was some of it was outside of his circumstances. I mean Pete Carroll was an absolute disaster with Chip Kelly running the offense and offensive line was bottom of the barrel just one of the worst groups at that at that position so the receivers were pretty weak you know Brock Bauer gets hurt first thing in the to start the season so I think I think Gino's actually probably going to have a little bit of a bounce back here. I think that's going to lift up all these guys in New York so I've been honestly I've been taking a little bit of Bruce Young I've been taking a little bit of Garrett Wilson at their 80 P's. I am a little bit concerned that they do go out and you know get Kenyans to Deek they draft Omar Cooper as well so there is more competition in New York. A.D. Mitchell that he's been one of my favorite picks at the very end of the drafts I guess that's no longer an option now he's he's risen up to like the 170s and the latest best balls, but I do think this offense is going to be at least, you know, not significantly, but it's going to be at least marginally better than it was last year. And I think Garrett Wilson could be a big beneficiary. That Jets fans earmuffs. I'm going to tell you one of my favorite stats from last year. Garrett Wilson was the Jets leading receiver in 2025. He lost, but what a pass on October 12th. That is brutal. I mean, if any Jets fans have their ears, you know, not much, they're now bleeding. That's that is one of my that's one of my favorite stats, but I'm actually with Tom. I'd love to make him fun of Gino Smith last year. I called him. I called him smoke break Gino because like, you know, like if you're a line cook at a restaurant man, you just got to have that you've just got to have that heater. And like, Gino was like, man, I haven't thrown a pick in like an hour. Like I got to get out there and just put this ball in harm's way. And the only reason I was really liked making fun of Gino who's honestly one of the cooler stories in the NFL the last few years is because of the film bros. I call it the mean of kinds extended universe tried to convince us that Gino Smith was a top 10 quarterback when every discernible metric would tell you that that is preposterous. But I'm with Tom now that he's probably a little underrated because he is a quarterback who most quarterbacks, I would say 90 to 95 percent. Maybe like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson wouldn't have faltered in Vegas last year. But like that's about it, you know, maybe we even saw Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City last year in an untenable situation and of getting himself hurt. So that situation was awful. I cannot believe I'm about to say this, but the jets are going to provide a better situation for him. And we'll see what that means. Now Gino, I mean, nobody's really drafting him. He's easily a number three quarterback for fantasy. But I think Garrett Wilson can have a strong season this year. Yeah, he's always been a target earner. Always been like top 15 and targets per round. I'm with you, Joe. I'm just really bullish about Garrett Wilson and Chad, I see you. Yeah, it's really gross to drive draft jets. Like I'm not I'm not excited to do it. But the thing is like no one else is either. I mean, Garrett Wilson two years ago was going at the one to turn. Last year, he was going on the third round. And now this is the cheapest price we can get in that. Okay, two final secrets that Vegas is telling us this year, guys. And this one is maybe this maybe should have been one B and one A. But man, this Javante Williams projection, like legitimately stunned me. I think I said this on a stream last week. I think we're just all kind of collectively too low on Javante. It's like, yeah, he was way too cheap last year. I myself hand up fully missed on Javante Williams last year. I just didn't really think any of these cowboys backfield was going to be very valuable. I was dead wrong. And you look at the projection this season. Javante Williams is projecting for basically right at a thousand yards. We've got some other like competitive names. Ashen Chancy is going on the first round. Yeah, Javante Williams projects for more yards. I'm our enhanced in one of my favorite breakout care candidates this year. Second round pick. Javante Williams is going at the three four turn. He's out projects during my love. Breeze Hall and Chase Brown as well. All players that are going ahead of him in ADP. Tom, are we just too low on Javante? I think that's kind of where I'm at. I think if you go into a draft and you do draft, two receivers or get your receiver in the first round, Javante makes a lot of sense as like an RB2. Yeah, he's been a little bit tough to get. If you're drafting a running back, running back early, you don't want to get Javante Williams. But if you do go like a Justin Jefferson, Almond Raw at the end of the first round, grab one of those running backs and that bucket at the start of the second round, then you can get Javante Williams and get a wide receiver in the fourth round. So I love that strategy. I do think he is slightly underpriced here. He's starting to look. He looked last year like the guy we all thought he was going to become in Denver and he of course had the multi ligament tear and he never got back to the pre-me injury form that he once showed. And sometimes it does take these guys a couple of years and he found himself in a good situation in Dallas. So I think this offense is going to be one of the best again with the Cowboys. So he's going to have opportunities to score touchdowns. He doesn't get those receiving situations. But you know, I think he makes up for it for the amount of carries he gets in the touchdown opportunities that he gets. So I love him at cost, especially if you do get some wide receivers earlier in your draft. Yeah, and I mean, one more point here is as somebody in the chat points out index of suspicion who's been going absolutely ham in our chat. They're defenses going to be better this year. I think it would be hard for it to be worse. Number two, can we bake in like a 10% chance that George Pickens goes full Antonio Brown like and just walks off the planet. I think there's a small thing like I think our projections are accounting for that chance. I know they're talking up Ryan Florenoid, but I mean, I don't think Ryan Florenoid even at his best will approach the motivated George Pickens. So I do think Dallas can run the ball a little bit more. And on top of everything else, they did absolutely nothing in the backfield this season. So except except for resigned Javante Williams, that's the one thing they did in the backfield. And they signed him to a three year deal. So there was a commitment there for Dallas that they haven't made since Ezekiel Elliott. It's in deck we trust for me. I'm just I've always been a big fan of deck. I thought he had a career year last year. I thought he put together his best season. And this Cowboys team, Joe, to your point. I mean, this defense will be better. They have a nine and a half win total. That's pretty strong, man, especially for what we thought of this team last year. And Chad, I see you. Yeah, Javante Williams definitely not going to be a huge target earner, but let's rewind the clocks like two years ago. And Denver his last season 70 targets is second the last season in Denver. He had 58. And this is a guy who's always been able to handle that workhorse role. So yeah, maybe he's not going to catch 50 balls, 60 balls this year. That's probably not in his range of outcomes. But you know, he's it's not like he's going to be a total zero in the past game. I I see a potential bell cow roll here on an offense that again, I'm just very, very bullish on deck press guy. All right, I have been most excited to talk about this final secret, our top secret that Vegas is telling us about fantasy football in 2026. Yeah, it's the last Vegas Raiders being the most improved team by a significant margin. And yeah, maybe this isn't a huge surprise they get Fernando Mendoza. They got Kurt Cousins, but I think the margin is this biggest surprise to me. They are implied to score five more points per game than they did last year. I went back and looked. I've been looking at the Vegas implied team totals to kind of give us some directional accuracy with these teams for three years now. This is the biggest year over your improvement for any team that 's not had like a major quarterback injury, you know, coming back for injury. Five points per game improvement. To me, this just spells draft action, Jansy with a lot more confidence. I know at the back end of the first round, especially after his last season, it's it's a little scary. That's for sure, but they get Colton Miller back. They have a big upgrade at center and Tyler Linda bomb. Again, the quarterback upgrade is very, very real Joe. I know you and I were both big on Jansy last year and he was definitely a miss, but I wouldn't call him a bust. I mean, he was RB 15. He gave us some spiked weeks when they had some good game script. He, you know, two games late in the year where they were favored. He had good games. I mean, the Vegas lines are telling us here, man. This is going to be a much improved offense, but will it be enough for Jansy to pay off ADP? I was talking to Paul Kelly on the series. I'm warning show about how gross it feels like on paper that action genty is a first round pick, bait coming off of the rookie season that he had. And of course, I think what what action genty proved and the Raiders proved was like the in many ways the running backs don't matter bros got a got a victory here. They put a running back in a bad situation and the running back faltered, but I want to talk about fantasy points data here for a little bit. And I want to shout out our guy Jacob Gibbs, who on Twitter, J a Gibbs underscore 23, who does the fantasy football today, newsletter for CBS. And he pulled some amazing stats here. Ashton genty yards per carry on runs in which the offensive line opened one or more yards before contact 6.78 71% success rate on such runs. 25% six missed tackles for straight on such runs yards after contact per rush. So when when Ashton genty got a runway, he was breaking tackles prodigiously 3.4 yards after contact per rush when he had one or more yards before contact. That was best in the NFL. All of those numbers are either equal to or better than Bijon Robinson on the same such runs. So ashen genty, if you and Graham, this lines up with the scouting report. Yeah, he is hard to tackle. But even the hardest players to tackle can get tackled easily if they are contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage before they get a runway. Even Derek Henry can be tackled if he is contacted at or before the line of scrimmage. The Raiders not only did they did they have a bad offensive line. They also had bad luck. Colton Miller getting hurt Jackson powers Johnson getting hurt. What did they do this off season? They go out. They sign Tyler Lindner bomb making the highest paid center in NFL history. Colton Miller and Jackson powers Johnson will be bad. They sign a veteran and Spencer Burford to play left guard. Try to at least shore those things up. This offensive line is going to be better. This offense is going to be better because Chip Kelly that charlatan that he is is not calling the plays. Clint Cubiac is calling the place here. So this is all going to be a better environment. And I think there is a legitimate chance that Ashen genty is a true breakout superstar. fantasy bell cow and look they drafted Mike Washington in the fourth round. I understand that however they had nothing behind action genty they just needed a body with talent so I don't think Mike Washington is gonna be somebody who's gonna come in here get 150 carries I think all the arrows are pointing up for action genty the problem is you have to pay for it because everybody else has acknowledged this he's a for-for-for-un pick he projects incredibly well for us he's RBA but it's you know we've got Sequan Barkley and Devon H. Han ahead of them and comfortably add them and projections and yeah we feel we don't feel very good about this Miami offense but I feel a lot better about the Eagles offense and it barkly bouncing back now that Lane Johnson's back in tow Tom real quick yeah what are your thoughts on J.N.C this season I've been mostly out on them at his price I guess I'm not believing it as much as as Joe and some other people are I've been going towards James Cook and in Sequan Barkley and that same type of range there but if he does slide a little bit I'm not afraid to take them but I just I guess I'm just worried overall even with this 5.1 at win improvement you know they won what three games last year so still gonna be a team that's probably you know struggling to get the 500 but like Joe said the backup situation there's still no one really here that's competing with him for touches and targets so the situation still looks great but I guess I'm still a little bit cooler on the overall vibes of this Raiders team and I yeah I'm mostly been out at his current price yeah it is very very tricky and I kind of lean towards you Tom I prefer James Cook I also prefer a few of the receivers in that pocket but yeah I mean I don't want to completely be out on J.N.C. you know I still want a little bit in that back half of the first round Tom Joe excellent stuff going through the 10 secrets that Vegas told us about Fantasy Football in 2026.