Go back

10 BEST NFL Week 6 Player Props & Touchdown Picks! (Ep. 1103)

from BettingPros Podcast

42m 58s

10 BEST NFL Week 6 Player Props & Touchdown Picks! (Ep. 1103)

This episode of the Betting Pros podcast is the Week 6 prop show, hosted by Welsh and Andrew Erickson. The hosts open by recapping their season records, with Erickson at 13-7 and Welsh at 10-10, and note that Jahmyr Gibbs, whose anytime touchdown bet has been a running theme, has hit five straight weeks but is on bye. They then present 10 prop bets for Week 6, each offering detailed matchup analysis. Erickson favors unders on Michael Penix Jr.'s pass attempts and Jayden Daniels' rushing yards, plus overs on Jalen Coker's receiving yards and Cam Skattebo's rushing yards. Welsh likes overs on Jalen Warren's and Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving yards and Parker Washington's receptions, plus an under on Deshaun Watson's rushing yards. The two also pair correlative props on Titans receivers, taking Wan'Dale Robinson over and Carnell Tate under. For touchdown calls, Erickson picks Luther Burden and long shot J. Michael Sturdivant, while Welsh selects Isaiah Likely and Jalen Coker. Their first touchdown picks are Christian Watson at +1000 and Marvin Harrison Jr. at +2200, the latter driven by a narrative about his reunion with C.J. Stroud. The episode includes sponsor messages for Xero, Kin, Wild Turkey Bourbon, and others, and closes with promotions for the Betting Pros app and cheat sheet tools.

Transcription

8879 Words, 46611 Characters

English
Speaker 1This is an iHeart Podcast.
Speaker 2Guaranteed Human. If you own a small business, you know that dealing with the books is part of running the business. You started because you had something you wanted to build, but then you realize you got all these numbers you got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cash flow. That's why I want to tell you about Xero. That's X-E-R-O. Xero puts your accounting, payments, payroll, analytics, all in one connected platform. It's great. So you can get a clearer picture of what's actually happening in your biz. You got visual dashboards, reports, forecasts to help you understand your cash flow. Xero can even provide AI-powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions. Okay, so it's easy to navigate, but even easier to understand. In fact, 91% of customers agree Xero is easy to use, and most things aren't. More than 5 million customers worldwide are already using Xero. Xero is a great way to get started. Xero is a great way to get started using Xero. X-E-R-O. If you're a small business owner, you're looking for a simpler way to stay on top of your finances, it's time you try Xero. Learn more. X-E-R-O.com. A 91% claim is based on a 2024 Xero survey conducted in the U.S., the U.K., and Australia.
Speaker 3What's up, friends, and welcome into Betting Pros. This is the week six prop show. I am the Welsh. That is Erickson, and we are back. We are back. Last week, we had the wonderful Joe Madden and the great and powerful Scott Bogman. As both Erickson and I were back, we are back into our home. This, this is our home base, if you will. And we've got 10 props that we are going to be talking to you about for week six. We're going to be going through our touchdown calls, everything in between. Unfortunately, Erickson, your favorite bet last week was, I don't know, like inspired a little bit by you being in the same destination that you got married and you were there for a wedding and the over on the reception seems like it should have hit. Even though you weren't on the show, this was the one you were giving out on like, you know, the primer and everything like that didn't hit, but we're ready to cash them this week. You feel, you feel the prop gods just didn't have enough love for, I don't know, wedding, wedding signs. It feels like that should have played.
Speaker 4Yeah, I know. I was feeling the good vibes with Kush McCaffrey. Now I did go three and two overall with my props on the official plays that I played last week on the betting pros primer. However, the last two weeks have kind of been meh for me in props three and two both weeks, but that's because I've been better at sides and totals, right? So that's kind of usually the case is when one of them is doing well, the other one does worse and vice versa. So looking to get closer to four and one in the props, maybe, maybe one of us can get a five and L perfect week.
Speaker 3I need to get a four and one. I don't have a four and one week. I've got two, two and threes and two, three and twos. I believe, I believe two weeks ago when we were on the show, I went two and three and two, if I'm remembering correctly, and I want to be better. And I want us to get one of those five and us last week. If we want to take a look at the updates for at least Bogman and Joe, they Bogman was two and three, Joe Madden, three and two. So very nice. They put some good plays in there for you guys on the year. Uh, Erickson is 10 and five. I am eight and seven. We are still over 500. If those numbers seem to be correct, I feel like maybe I did. I miss that. I miss a week in there. Does that sound right? No, that sounds right. Five, 10, 15. I feel like I don't know. For some reason, the math does. I feel like I think I might not have added up now that I'm thinking about it. I think that would be, I would be 10 and 10. Maybe I didn't add up the week that we were before and you would be 13 and seven. Okay. So live update there. You are 13 and seven. I am 10 and 10. Got to keep it over 500, a couple of touchdown calls. You're still positive ROI on your touchdowns. I am not. We will try to rectify that this week and we will play some first touchdowns at the end of the show. So we got a lot for you as we're going to be playing touchdown. We, unfortunately, the last thing before we get into this, we can't roll over Jameer Gibbs, but what we can tell you is Jameer Gibbs has hit five straight weeks every single week as Erickson has been doing. It's my favorite thing we're doing right now is you've been, you bet one unit and then you take the winnings. You bet another and you've done it for five straight weeks. He's on a buy. He says he wants to beat LaDainley Tomlinson's touchdown record going into week seven. Can you give us an update? What is the, what units are we, are we like at four or are we at four or five units that will be placed next week? I think it's four and a half. It's either four and
Speaker 4a half or five units. I think is the amount that we're wagering on Jameer Gibbs anytime touchdown. It's actually really sad that the Lions are on a buy week because basically that's been the fuel to my anytime touchdown success. It's Jameer Gibbs scoring touchdowns and then picking players that are facing the Lions to the entire portfolio of touchdowns in the prop show through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
Speaker 3LaDainley Tomlinson has scored more times. I'm not letting it does in my brain. Jameer Gibbs has scored more touchdowns than we have correctly picked so far this season. He has scored more than you and I have had correct picks. So I I'm sad because I actually also get a text. My, my a lot going on and everything like that. If there's a really good bet or something, Erickson Erickson will text me on Sunday, but I get a Sunday text as soon as Jameer Gibbs scores a touchdown. That's a guarantee. So I'm just, you're going to have to find something else to text me about. Maybe we'll have like one of our crazy ones here, but I get a guaranteed Sunday text from Erickson Jameer Gibbs or LFG or something along those lines.
Speaker 4So I sent you the one that was, uh, I think two weeks ago I sent you the DJ Coward. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3Another one. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4We're having fun.
Speaker 3We're having a lot of fun with it. We can't do it this week, but at least next week we'll roll into it. So we'll remind you guys what that looks like. So we got the Jameer Gibbs. I sent you the one that was, uh, I think two weeks roll. We got our big board Bogman and Joe Madden doing us right. Let's see what we're going to be playing for this week. And let's jump into our props for week six. We've got 10 of them. And Erickson, why don't you kick us off with a quarterback prop? And this is actually one that I played two weeks ago. And I cashed, I think at least I played this player on an under, I think it might've been completions. You're going to play pass attempts for who?
Speaker 4Yep. For Michael Pennix, Jr. Falcons quarterback going to go under 31 and a half pass. Can So this is a five-star bet on the betting pros, prop bet, cheat sheet, five-star NFL props right now are up over 25 units. So far this season, the prop bet cheat sheet has been spot on over the last several years when it comes to pass attempts. So that's always one of the markets I look like for when I'm looking for some of these props for the weekly show. So with Pennix, I think it's really interesting case to take the under with him. You look at the Falcons and how they operate on offense. They are a run first offense. They are and pass right over expectation, which means they have the third highest run rate in those types of game scripts. So he's only gone over this number in one time in his last five games played. He had 32 attempts last week in that overtime game against the Falcons or excuse me, against the Ravens. Now, obviously he didn't play in the overtime period, but still it was a back and forth type of game. The first two games of the season that he played just averaged 22.5 pass attempts. And the big thing that kind of makes it a little bit more, a confident bet here is the bears matchup. So the bears have faced the total lowest passing attempts this season at 26 per game to opposing defenses. Only one quarterback, the bears have faced this year has actually surpassed 31 pass attempts. That was Bray song all the way back in week one. And then just kind of like the overarching point, this guy's dealing with a rib injury. So if I'm the Falcons play caller, does it make a lot of sense to, okay, let's drop back to throw with this guy 40 times when we know we can run all over the Chicago bears. I think it's going to be run heavy games here with B John. Yes. He's going to occasionally throw to Drake London as his first read. But besides that, I don't really expect unless this game is another overtime type of thriller that PX is going to be able to attempt this many passes. So five-star bet on the prop, a cheat sheet. I am definitely tailing it. And I suggest you do the
Speaker 3same. Yeah, I actually was looking at this one as well. I think, I think my bet was like 20.5 completions two weeks ago. And I think that played out well, I'm fully on board with this one with I'm going to be playing an over. This is my favorite targeted player for the week. It's the first thing that I put up on the sheet, really just trying to find a decision on what side I wanted to play. I do lean into my receptions, but I held myself back a little bit and we're going to play the receiving yards for Jalen Warren this week, Jalen Warren going up against the bucks, the bucks giving up over five catches, by the way, which made me want to play the receptions, the reception markers at 3.5, giving up our 35 yards receiving to running back. So far this season, the projection totals on BP, it's, it's slightly over, especially because the, the, the line flips a little bit. Like I think there's some spots it's 27. I've got this locked in at 25.5. So 25.5 hits the marker for at least, you know, the projection standpoint, if you care about that, but this is one of my favorite parts about it. PFF grading running backs versus the bucks in RB coverage, 32 on linebacker coverage, 32 on defensive back coverage on running backs and 32 on the D line. There it is. It is a bad run for running and for receiving. It works very, very well. And that's the receiving grade. It's the second highest receiving grade according to PFF or running back for this week. Obviously he chunks it out. He's hit this four straight weeks. I believe if you go over on betting pros, you can see four of the five games this season, he has hit this marker. And by the way, he's crushed it. They've all been over 30 yards receiving. no Roman Wilson, there's no Pittman. aaron rogers dump off jaylen warren goaded 25.5 receiving yards that's my favorite play of the week that's my number one over and uh when i got it i had to get that one on the sheet just thinking you might you might have snagged that from me i didn't know if you were into jaylen warren but i quickly put that one up on the sheet uh you guys could go and have some fun and you guys can check out all of your bets see how they reference versus betting pros and you can find all of the nfl player prop bets with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily nfl projections to uncover the props offering the most value make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props and as mentioned you can go in there and you can start sorting by projected ev five star bets the five star bets and the four star bets as a simple click of just sorting you can go through have been wildly profitable this year so go and check all of that out the prop betting pros prop bets and you can find all of the NFL player prop bets with betting pros bet cheat sheet it is your number one friend on sunday all right let's go into our second props of the week erickson hit us with your favorite second prop jaylen
Speaker 4coker going over 55 and a half receiving yards the panthers are taking on the philadelphia eagles without jaylen hertz this week i know that i mentioned on the best bet show with seth that the panthers laying one and a half points was my favorite best bets now obviously that was before the jaylen hertz news broke so just as an improvement i'm still laying the points with carolina panthers if it's three and a half that's still one of my best bets so continue to bet it with confidence and fade this eagles team into oblivion that's because they cannot cover slot receivers they have allowed 108 yards per game to slot targets over his two healthy games this season jaylen coker has been over 55 and a half receiving yards and he eats out of the slot that's where he runs the majority of his routes so second most slot targets faced to slot receivers is the eagles defense so i think jaylen coker again brayson cooks when he's on the field i think it's just going to continue here against a overrated eagles defense over 300 passing yards allowed back-to-back games seventh most passing yards allowed this season per game so give me the over on coker i
Speaker 3made a rule what like week one i think maybe it was week two when they did it again i made a rule if you are going to give me a half decent line on 4.5 over receptions on parker washington i'm going to take it well guess what it's not massively juice it's not 150 or anything like that you can get it right around like one i think i did like 120 i think it's floating around yeah i still see 120 so i'm locked in at 120 over parker washington receptions you're not going to get me off of it bp projections like this because they've got him at five receptions he has hit this in three of his five and what used to be you know a matchup that was you know not great specifically because of stingley it was the stingley effect here okay you know he's like rated around 40th among cornerbacks so far this year ramsey when parker washington's playing out of the slot is like unranked so far this year so this is actually a positive a great matchup if you will for parker washington and he has been the main target they're going to continue slinging him the ball it's coming off of a six catch outing you give me 4.5 i'm going to continue to play it over i saw someone it's on the fantasy side and i completely agree with this someone this past week i'm forgetting who it was but they had pointed out they just said i'm going to continue to play it over i saw someone this past week i'm forgetting you probably and your league is probably still undervaluing parker washington and i think that's still kind of playing out in the betting market a bit that i know people looking for like a little bit more consistency when he had that one big dud but he is the number one target play here and i'm i'm gonna play my parker washington 4.5 reception so enough to be said that is my second prop of week six all right let's go to your third prop erickson what do you
Speaker 4got it is spooky season so cam's got a boo over 56 and a half rushing yards so i think that the market is sleeping a little bit here on the giants running back and only lost a fumble last week but john harlow did not punish nausea harris a couple weeks ago after he fumbled so i think scottaboo gets back to being the main workhorse for the giants run game and you can't ask for a better matchup this week than against the new orleans saints defense has allowed a league high 133.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs no defense has allowed more yards before contact and after contact so i think that's a lot of damage after contact per carry this season so scottaboo this year has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on a lot of his carries he's been doing a lot of his damage after contact so i think this is really one of his best matchups he's had all season new orleans has allowed seven different running backs to hit not just double digit fantasy points but to hit at least 54 rushing yards against them again seven running backs in five games that the saints have allowed to hit 54 rushing yards scottaboo has 56 and a half rushing yards in four or five games played this season and he's been doing a lot of damage after contact so i think this is really one of his the only one where he fell short was that rams game when jackson got jackson dark got hurt in the beginning of the game and james winston came off the bench and was dreadful every other healthy game that scottaboo has played since week three of last season he has hit at least 56 and a half rushing yards so i just think this number is too low i'm taking the
Speaker 3over i i got another over i'm going to play for you the scottaboo by the way i'm going to play my remandre remand your remandre really he's got the the jersey right back there people monster baby dude i was trying to think of like uh if i had it i didn't have it clearly if i could have had some type of spooky it's not even halloween but some spooky thing thank you remon remonstered dang it missed operator editor can we cut this boom remonster stevenson if i could have only had that remonster stevenson i love it receiving yards over now the tricky thing that popped up was everybody thought like guaranteed trevion henderson was going to be out so much so we had him knocked out because they're like he's gonna miss multiple weeks fantasy pro side well then all of a sudden he was like in a practice and that that is kind of changed the scope i still think no matter what's going on this is remandre stevenson stevenson sin this isn't uh it's remandre remonster steven sisson and receiving yards over is my play against the jets he's hit this in two straight weeks he's gone over the 20 marker the jets are averaging around 28 yards given up receiving to running backs but what's more important to me on this fact is they're giving up around six and a half yards per reception to running backs and i think that's going to play in well from a coverage standpoint the one that i'm really looking at the jets ranking 25th out of 32 linebacker coverage against running backs so we're gonna have that dump off remandre plays that he's hit that two straight weeks i really like this lined up 19.5 is the number that we're looking at so over 19.5 receiving yards it works even better by the way if you end up getting an official henderson out you're going to have a lot of coverage and i think that's going to play in for me anyways i personally think stevenson is going to get this on one catch so over 19.5 receiving yards that is number three for me as we move through our favorite props of the week before we get to number four and five i want to tell you guys about the new prediction market not so new here because we love to talk about poly market it's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms when you're teaming up you're going to have a lot of team goes down to 20 you can buy in and sell it off at 40 when they come back then you can double your money they're so confident you're never going to go back to the other guys they're giving you a free 25 in your first trade when you deposit just 10 they've also launched this great new feature called squads it's group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on so download the poly market app today and use code fp pod when you sign up that's fp pod to get 25 free after you deposit just 10 bucks if you own a
Speaker 2small business you know that dealing with the books is part of running the business you started because you had something you wanted to build but then you realize you got all these numbers you got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cash flow that's why i want to tell you about zero that's x e r o zero puts your accounting payments payroll analytics all in one connected platform it's great so you can get a clearer picture of what's actually happening in your biz you got visual dashboards reports forecasts to help you understand your cash flow xero can even provide ai powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions okay so it's easy to navigate but even easier to understand in fact 91 percent of customers agree xero is easy to use and most things aren't more than 5 million customers worldwide are already using xero x e r o if you're a small business owner you're looking for a simpler way to stay on top of your finances it's time you try zero learn more x e r o dot com a 91 claim is based on a 2024 zero survey conducted in the u.s the uk and australia did you
Speaker 5know texans who switched to kin say they saved around 1100 a year on home insurance that's a lot of cash here are some ways you could spend it you could finally take that weekend getaway you know the one we're talking about you could fix that fence post that's been leaning since last summer it's out there right now just waiting for you or hear me out eleven hundred dollars worth of brisket you'd be a legend at the neighborhood cookout point is it's your money kin just helps you keep more of it and the savings don't have to stop at your house with kin you could bundle home and auto insurance in texas and save up to 20 on auto plus you'll have one dedicated team taking care of your two biggest investments so when a storm hits your house and your car you only have to make one call get a quote at kin.com slash iheart kin.com slash iheart kin texas size savings home insurance refers to the kin house and property hd3 policy with an owner-occupied endorsement where applicable texas customers who switch to kin report annual savings of eleven hundred sixty dollars on average based on kin customer savings service Pay conducted August 2025 through August 2026. Can't enter insurance in excess exchange. Phoenix, Arizona. Savings apply when you bundle home and auto based on filed rates. Savings vary and are not guaranteed.
Speaker 6You hear that? Football season is here. And if you're looking for the boldest bourbon on the roster, make it Wild Turkey Bourbon. Kentucky-born with 100 years of know-how, Wild Turkey Bourbon never compromises. It's age-long, never watered down, full of bold pre-prohibition flavor. So whether you're hosting at home, firing up the grill at a tailgate, or headed to your favorite local spot, enjoy a bourbon that's filled with character and bold flavor. Because win or lose, it's always a win with Wild Turkey Bourbon. Wild Turkey Bourbon. Go bold to go home. Copyright 2026. Camparia, America, New York, New York. Never compromise. Drink responsibly. All right,
Speaker 3we've got more props in here. This is number four for each of us. I lose all my numerical side of how far we are because we've got 10 total. But four for you, Mr. Erickson. We have a correlative parlay. Both of ours. I love that you did this. We are playing a correlative parlay to where yours plays, and it works. For mine. Well,
Speaker 4because I was looking at your prop as well as one of my potential ones. When I saw you're already in the show sheet, I knew which direction I wanted to go in. So we are talking about the Titans wide receivers here because they have a juicy matchup this week against Indianapolis Colts. But in a weird parallel universe, I'm the one that's actually taking the over here, and you're the one that's taking the under. So I'm going to go over on Wanda Robinson at 35 and a half receiving yards. The Colts are a defense that you attack with slot one. Receivers. They've allowed the second most yards to slot targets this season. If you look at on the prop at analyzer for Wanda Robinson and his receiving yards, comparable players all green all overs for every other slot receiver that has faced the Colts defense. So far the season Wanda has already gone over this number in three or five games this season and ranks fifth in the NFL in terms of slot targets. So he's going to go over his receiving yards,
Speaker 3which means Welsh Carnell Tate receptions are going under. I didn't take. The receiving yards and take the receptions. I am playing the under risk receptions for Carnell Tate. That is actually a plus money play that's floating out there. I'm very into that. I have so close. I wonder if we can push this actually now that I'm looking, it's even pushed to a little bit under minus money. But if I wonder if we can get this to a five star, it is a three star debt right now, which by the way, the three star recommended bets on betting pros 18.7% ROI. So far this year they are supporting, but the projections at four, he did not hit this off. Obviously last week, three of five games this year, he has not hit this marker. He'd have to get to five. And I think the main thing, cause you and I talked about this in the rank show, which kind of inspired both parts of this, is that like the slot is where they're going to end up making any money. And also you saw like Tajay Spears getting, you know, nine targets out of the backfield. I, whether it's us or it's ward like Tate's, the one that's going to get taken out of this game. The advantage is the players out of the slot. And you mentioned that's Wando, Robinson. So Wondell on the up Carnell Tate, not finding five receptions. So we are going to play under 4.5 receptions for the week. This is my favorite one because like we're hand, we're holding hands through the beach, you know, it's footsteps, uh, Carnell Tate, Aaron, Drew Erickson, Wanda Robinson. I'm always with you. We're always with on this bet. So under on Tate over on Wando Robinson, that's going to take us to our final props. And guess what? I'm taking an under you're taking an under, and we are under writing it here. So get us our final bet. And you're under for this one.
Speaker 4Talked about a lot of different shows and programs this week about Jaden Daniels and how I think that his rushing is going to struggle here in this match against the 49ers. So I'm going to take the under on Jane Daniels, rushing yards at 38 and a half 49ers defense. The season has allowed the second fewest rushing arts per game to quarterbacks. And that's because of linebacker Fred Warner. He just totally changes the dynamic for scrambling quarterbacks. And mobile quarterbacks. The end, they haven't faced the most mobile of all quarterbacks this season, but when they have faced guys that can move Malik Willis, Bo Nix, those guys combined for 16 rushing yards against the 49ers. It was a season low in rushing yards for Bo Nix. No quarterback has rushed for more than 10 yards against the 49ers. Four of the five quarterbacks that they have faced have gone under their rushing projection. Willis had six rushing yards with a 37 and a half rushing yards prop. So he dramatically underwhelmed versus the 49ers. And Malik Willis is a quarterback that yeah, we expect him to run just like we expect Jane Daniels to run. I think it's very curious that the number is almost identical to what Malik Willis is was when he was up against 49ers and he underwhelmed dramatically. Now I know the prop at cheat sheet actually likes the attempts on the under a little bit more. So that was something that I was also considering, but it's also because the 49ers defense has just faced five scrambles this season tied for fewest in the NFL, but Jaden Daniels, I just look at his game log. And like this guy's always rushing seven times and scrambling seven times in every single game. It seems like, so I got a little spooked by that. And then just, I'm gonna trust in this defense, slowing him down with a QB spy, because I don't think I ever got many answers, dude. It was interesting. I looked at the injury report for the 49ers and commanders game. And someone made a comment. It's not really often that you see a injury report where there's more guys injured than the 49ers team. And that is the current state of the Washington commanders with more guys on their injury report than the San Francisco 49ers. How is that even possible by the way they have, they could feel the roster of injured players. How is that possible? The, the commanders are really banged up like across the board on defense on offense. The receivers are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Dracora Krosky Merritt has a groin injury now. So I think that Jane Daniels is gonna try to be Superman, but I think in this case, well, you got bizarre on defense on the other side and his name is Fred Warner. So I'm taking the under.
Speaker 3You need the, that was, you got the monster, his kryptonite, his Fred Warner's. Are you getting monster? All right, we gotta, we gotta reset that. Please. Yeah. Editors recut it, recut it. Do the line again. You gotta actually do it. Oh, I actually have to do it now. By the way, if you had the over on me, uh, knocking and dumping water all over my desk, cause I got super hyped up talking about the last prop. Then you cashed. If people were wondering what I was doing, I just was like, I'm like, blah, cause I talk with my hands and I just annihilated water everywhere. So I was trying to listen to all of your great takes while attempting to clean my desk. So it didn't destroy everything. So, uh, I don't know what to do with that. All right. So you took a quarterback rushing under, you all get a quarterback rushing under, cause I am going to be joining you, but this time I am going to be taking the under on rushing yards on Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson definitely has had some of those bigger outputs. He had 40 last week, 45 and week three. He is playing a little bit of a week on week off week one, three and five. He's hit this two and four. He hasn't hit this. Maybe not. You know, you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but, uh, it's not a big deal. You don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but it's, you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you can play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, but you don't have to play like necessary correlations here, touchdowns though. Before we do, we're going to pick two touchdowns each. And then our first touchdown, you guys can go and check out the touchdown score report. Looking for an edge in touchdown bets. We got you. Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. Mr. Andrew Erickson, holy crap, your two touchdowns. You have one that's going to be fun. And then it's going to be really fun here. You are going to open some eyes. So please, my friend, let us know about your two touches. And one of these is not your first touchdown, by the way. I'm just letting you know, let everyone know right now. There's an over 10 to one touchdown call, and that's not a first touchdown that you're playing. So hit us with your touchdown plays.
Speaker 4All right. I'm going to go with Luther Bird at plus one 75 for an anytime touchdown wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. Atlanta is allowing nearly two passing touchdowns per game. They are one of these defenses that's more of a pass funnel than run funnel. Burden, surprisingly, ranks fifth in the NFL this year in red zone targets this season. Among all wide receivers, he has eight. So given the fact that Caleb Williams is coming back, maybe he gets a little bump. One of these Bears pass guys is going to find the end zone, whether it's Burden, whether it's Odunze, whether it's Loveland, someone's going to score. And at least so far this season, Burden has been the most heavily involved in the red zone. So that's the direction. I'm going to go in with him at one 75. And then my long shot for an anytime touchdown is Green Bay Packers wide receiver. Not, not Christian Watson, not Matthew Golden. Wait, can I stop you real quick?
Speaker 3Oh, hold on. Your touchdown call is better odds than my first touchdown call. Who is a Green Bay Packer? You have better touchdown odds on just an anytime touchdown with this guy. Can you even pronounce his name?
Speaker 4I don't know. It's J. Michael Sturdivant, I believe is his name. Green Bay Packers wide receiver. I think he played around 13% of the snaps last week. But the most important thing, he caught a 43-yard touchdown pass last week that was nullified on an offensive pass interference call. The coaches talked about this after the game, that this is according to the CoachSpeak Index. Shout out to Greg Branos. Excellent job over there. The coaches said that play he had last week would have been awesome to get him his first touchdown. But I'm sure it'll be coming pretty soon. That's all I'm saying. And when you're facing the Dallas Cowboys, defense, you can pick and choose how you want to score your touchdowns. So I think that the fact that he scored last week and it got taken off, that the coach can be like, you know what? Let's get him his touchdown. He had a really nice catch last week, but didn't count. Let's get him his score, especially against the Dallas Cowboys. So that's going to be my anytime. J. Michael Sturdivant at 10-1.
Speaker 310-1 plus 10-50. It's incredible. All right. My two plays. I'm going to go. It's incredible plays here, Erickson. I'm going to go with Isaiah Likely. Isaiah Likely. At almost 2-1 plus 185. Saints are giving up a few touchdowns in here. Winston going to be absolutely slinging the ball. I really like the target share that he's getting right now. And when Winston is out there, we just know it's going to be 40-plus pass attempts going up against the Saints. I think this is a great play. And then Jalen Coker. You mentioned you like Jalen Coker in this one. You know, we were trying to, we did this whole thing on tailgate about, you know, the Eagles and blah, blah, blah. And then we heard the Jalen Hurts thing. But if you just, you know, bring it back to the Panthers and, don't think about the obvious thing that's going to happen. We all think the Panthers are going to win now. So clearly the Eagles will win by 20. Is that like their defense and Dajin has not been as good. And when you look at some of the touchdown plays as well, the six receiving touchdowns they've given up, I believe five of those six have come out of like slot receivers. So, I mean, that is the play. And that is where Jalen Coker lives. He's going to get those targets. I know Tedaro McMillan has been the dude, especially from a red zone perspective. But he should see coverage. Jalen Coker. I think Bryce Young will be slinging the ball. Jalen Coker. Is. Three to one. Three, 10. So I, yeah, I love the odds on that one. So Jalen Coker, anytime touchdown, that is going to be my play. And that takes us finally to our first touchdowns. We have not hit one. Well, I will say we are getting to the point where we kind of need to hit one soon, you know, because it's like, I mean, I guess not like we could go probably 10 weeks without it being like too much of an issue, but like, let's try to hit one here. So there is no 80 to ones. There's no 50 to ones in here. I'm going to just tell you right now, I'm going to get mine out of the way. Cause yours is like a little bit sexier. I don't shut up about this, but Christian Watson has scored like three first anytime touchdowns. Jordan Love loves him. They love to go to him deep in games. He continuously gets the first touchdown. And I think that game is going to be slinging the crap out of the ball. And he has a little bit less odds in your touchdown call. He's 10 to one, which actually is better than I think the previous week where he's like seven and a half to one. I'm going to just roll this out again and take a shot at a 10 to one Christian Watson in a game that I think is going to be heavily. Pass influenced and the ball goes to Christian Watson early and often. So 10 to one is mine. You, my friend, you are dancing with the devil on your play. You're going to London and my God, are you really going to pick the name that I think you're going to pick?
Speaker 4Marvin Harrison, Jr. 22 to one to score the first touchdown for the Houston Texans taken on the Jacksonville London Jaguars. The last time we saw Marvin Harrison, Jr. With CJ Stroud as his quarterback. He got 14 touchdowns in 2022. The last game, these two guys played together at the Ohio State University, two tutties against Georgia and the college football playoff.
Speaker 3I want to use this so much. I want it.
Speaker 4All I'm saying is he's going to have packages that are going to 100% be in the red zone.
Speaker 3I'm just about to say that, you know, they're not going to care about like when they're on the 30 and they're running their second down package on the fourth play. No, it's going to just be like 20 red zone run. You're going to see they're going to
Speaker 4Stroud's going to, he's, he's going to run out of the huddle. It's going to be out wide, solidified, isolated extra look at Marvin. He's going to be like, look at Marvin. It's going to be Travis Hunter lined up with him one-on-one. And I mean, the Texas want to look smart, right? They want to look like, yeah, we made the smart move and then want to make the Cardinals look dumb. So they're going to be like, we're going to get our guy touchdown. And look, Marvin Harrison, Jr. The last time he played in the Cardinals, he did catch touchdown back in week three. So yeah, I think that this is what he's actually done well. At the NFL level, like he scored eight touchdowns as a rookie. Like he's commanded a high target share of end zone targets throughout his NFL career. This is what he has been good at. And I think that's going to start here in week one. I think there, I think there's going to be like a precedent to, to like, let's get him a touchdown, right? Let's get all the good feels out. The good vibes, Stroud, the Ohio state, all that good stuff, especially against the rival, like the Jaguars. Like this is a must win game for the Houston Texans or else they're going to fall to one in five. Cause right now they're one. They're one in four. So they need this win. They got to upset the Jaguars and, uh, Hey, MHJ, I've seen crazier things.
Speaker 3I, I love a narrative based first touchdown bet. Like that was my use check one. Like, just give me a narrative to play around with the logic. And I'm, I'm just, I mean, sucker for it.
Speaker 4It happened. What with, uh, the Jawan Johnson one back in week one, it was his birthday. So of course then we're going to get him a touchdown.
Speaker 3I don't think any of our narratives have worked, but like only needs to work once for us to not shut the hell up about it. And to be up. So we'll get there. I love it. I love it. I think yours is way more fun. Mine is just like, he keeps doing it. So clearly it's going to be Matthew golden, uh, in this one, but like all Watson does is do it, but yours is just so much.
Speaker 4I mean, there's a reason why I didn't put stir Devon as the first touchdown, because to your point, it's Watson and golden. Those guys both ranked top five and end zone targets this year. Cause when they get into the red zone area, Jordan love is just slinging the ball to all of these guys. So yeah, I think that, I mean, nothing would be a good thing. Make me happier that on Sunday night football, Christian Watson scores the first touchdown next drive, stir Devon. Our guy scores the next touchdown.
Speaker 3I mean, just give the, you know what? That's how I'm going to get my Sunday text from Erickson. I'll get my Sunday text from Erickson there. I won't get it from Jameer Gibbs, but I'm going to get it from Stu Devon or whatever.
Speaker 4I do wonder what I, any ideas. I don't know what the J in his name stands for. I, it may just be J. Do you have any guesses for J Michael? It could also could just be J James James
Speaker 3is like a pretty good. Well, I mean, we could look it up here.
Speaker 4No, I want to, I want to see what you might think.
Speaker 3Oh yeah. You're going with James. I'm going to say James. Do you have a pick? I'll go with, uh, go with Joe. Let's see. Oh, it's J. You got to J Michael's. I just went away from it. I don't know.
Speaker 4His name might just be J too.
Speaker 3It's like J Michael stirred it. Let's see if we're going to find it. Well, now everyone's going to have to hang out with us. There's a sports reference should usually tell us, right? It should. Verifying. And there's nothing. It just says J. What's the J? Someone tell us the J. Okay. In the comments below, 35 of you can all say the same thing or look for the first person to do it. We need to know what the J is. That's all we're looking for. But yeah, I'm going to go with James. What did you, I'm sorry. What did you say?
Speaker 4Joe. But I mean, his, I mean, his, his name just might, his first name might just be J Michael.
Speaker 3Like. It didn't look like it was like J dot. Like it was an abbreviation. Like Michael's the middle name, which is okay. We're going to find out. You know what? The whole world's going to know when you score this touchdown. Michael's my middle name. Is it? I was going to be named. I was told I was going to be named Michael and I wasn't. I was named Chris. And then you guys are done with it. Shut up. Shut up. And you already gave me the best. I thought your name was Welsh. It's the, actually my legal name is the, and then it's Welsh. That's how it is. All right. You guys can't complain by the way, because we gave you all the stuff. So you can't be like, Hey guys, shut up. Get to the best. We did it. So you can go away if you want. Uh, we need to know what Jay is. And we know learned to Erickson was Michael. I could have been a Michael. Are you, I don't know. Get your bets in. Let us know in the comments. Are you Michael? All right. Wait, we've devolved. Wait, this is late night prop betting. This is the best kind. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it. 10 prop bets for any time touchdowns, some first touchdowns. We'll see how we did last week. We'll see if the loopy betting show ends up being profitable. Shout out to Joe Madden and Scott Bogman. Last week, holding it down. Shout out to you guys, uh, that were here for them and that you're here for us. Hopefully we are going to cash you guys some big stuff. Make sure you guys download the betting pros app. That is the way that you are going to be able to do all of the great stuff from tracking your bets better than any other place. You can check out all the stuff we talked about from the prop bed cheat sheet. Uh, you can get some personalized picks based on your history. You can get into the five-star I'm telling you, go and explore it. Don't even just listen to me. Go and explore it for yourself. Betting pros.com slash app. Go and download that today. That is going to do it. We got to get out of here. Good luck in week six. Hopefully you guys make some money and we'll talk to you next week right here. I'm betting pros. That's Erickson. I'm Welsh. Bye Michael. Peace out.
Speaker 1Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and Tik TOK at betting pros and Instagram at betting pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash betting pros. We'll see you in the next video. if you own a small
Speaker 2business you know that dealing with the books is part of running the business you started because you had something you wanted to build but then you realize you got all these numbers you got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cash flow that's why i want to tell you about zero that's x e r o zero puts your accounting payments payroll analytics all in one connected platform it's great so you can get a clear picture of what's actually happening in your biz you got visual dashboards reports forecasts to help you understand your cash flow zero can even provide ai powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions okay so it's easy to navigate but even easier to understand in fact 91 percent of customers agree zero is easy to use and most things aren't more than 5 million customers worldwide are already using zero x e r o if you're a small business owner you're looking for a simpler way to stay on top of your finances it's time you try zero learn more x e r o.com a 91 claim is based on a 2024 zero survey conducted in the u.s the uk and australia this is
Speaker 7pat fitzmaurice i hope you enjoy this episode of the show which is sponsored by accredited debt relief accredited debt relief specializes in one thing helping you find a real workable solution to your debt dealing with debt can be exhausting they are here to step in and give you real options that will immediately lower your monthly payments and reduce the total amount of debt you owe if you're struggling you're not alone go to accredited debt relief.com and in just two minutes you can sign up for a free consultation and take the first step to becoming debt free not all creditors or debts qualify fees apply and vary services are available where permitted did you know texans who switched to kin
Speaker 5say they saved around 1100 a year on home insurance that's some ways you could spend it you could finally take that weekend getaway you know the one we're talking about you could fix that fence post that's been leaning since last summer it's out there right now just waiting for you or hear me out eleven hundred dollars worth of brisket you'd be a legend at the neighborhood cookout point is it's your money kin just helps you keep more of it and the savings don't have to stop at your house with kin you could bundle home and auto insurance in texas and save up to 20 on auto plus you'll have one dedicated team taking care of your two biggest so when a storm hits your house and your car you only have to make one call get a quote at kin.com slash iheart kin.com slash iheart kin texas size savings home insurance refers to the kin house and property hd3 policy with an owner occupied endorsement where applicable texas customers who switch to kin report annual savings of 1160 on average based on kin customer savings survey conducted august 2025 through august 2026 kin interinsurance nexus exchange phoenix arizona savings apply when you bundle home and auto based on filed rates savings vary and are not guaranteed
Speaker 1this is an iheart podcast guaranteed human

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The Betting Pros Week 6 prop show features hosts Welsh and Andrew Erickson presenting 10 player prop bets, including touchdown calls.
  2. Erickson is 13-7 and Welsh is 10-10 on the season, and both hosts aim to improve their touchdown call records this week.
  3. Erickson's props include Michael Penix Jr. under 31.5 pass attempts, Jalen Coker over 55.5 receiving yards, Cam Skattebo over 56.5 rushing yards, and Jayden Daniels under 38.5 rushing yards.
  4. Welsh's props include Jalen Warren over 25.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 4.5 receptions, Rhamondre Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards, and Deshaun Watson under rushing yards.
  5. The hosts pair correlative props
  6. Touchdown calls include Luther Burden at +175, J. Michael Sturdivant at +1050, Isaiah Likely at +185, and Jalen Coker at +310.
  7. First touchdown picks are Christian Watson at +1000 and Marvin Harrison Jr. at +2200, with the latter based on a narrative about his reunion with C.J. Stroud.
  8. The hosts promote Betting Pros tools, including the prop bet cheat sheet and touchdown score report, and note that Jahmyr Gibbs has hit five straight weeks but is on bye.

Summary:

This episode of the Betting Pros podcast is the Week 6 prop show, hosted by Welsh and Andrew Erickson. The hosts open by recapping their season records, with Erickson at 13-7 and Welsh at 10-10, and note that Jahmyr Gibbs, whose anytime touchdown bet has been a running theme, has hit five straight weeks but is on bye. They then present 10 prop bets for Week 6, each offering detailed matchup analysis.

's pass attempts and Jayden Daniels' rushing yards, plus overs on Jalen Coker's receiving yards and Cam Skattebo's rushing yards. Welsh likes overs on Jalen Warren's and Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving yards and Parker Washington's receptions, plus an under on Deshaun Watson's rushing yards. The two also pair correlative props on Titans receivers, taking Wan'Dale Robinson over and Carnell Tate under.

For touchdown calls, Erickson picks Luther Burden and long shot J. Michael Sturdivant, while Welsh selects Isaiah Likely and Jalen Coker. Their first touchdown picks are Christian Watson at +1000 and Marvin Harrison Jr.

J. Stroud. The episode includes sponsor messages for Xero, Kin, Wild Turkey Bourbon, and others, and closes with promotions for the Betting Pros app and cheat sheet tools.

FAQs

Xero is an all-in-one connected platform that combines accounting, payments, payroll, and analytics for small businesses.

More than 5 million customers worldwide are already using Xero.

91% of customers agree Xero is easy to use, based on a 2024 survey conducted in the U.S., U.K., and Australia.

Xero offers visual dashboards, reports, forecasts, and AI-powered insights to help you understand cash flow and make smarter decisions.

It's a weekly NFL show where hosts discuss 10 player prop bets and touchdown calls for the upcoming week.

It's a tool that compares lines from leading sportsbooks against daily NFL projections to find the most valuable props and identify five-star bets.

Chat with AI

Loading...

Pro features

Go deeper with this episode

Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.