10/9/26: Abdul and Ossoff Crush Debates, Pape On Trump's 'Gift To Tehran', Will Lawrence Congress Run In Michigan

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And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Good morning, everybody. It is Friday, October 9th, here at your Breaking Points Friday shows. We've got Crystal returning, Ryan returning, and me and Emily, you know, no days off. We're grind set, hustling, always. We're always here. Ryan, how was your show? It was delightful. And then kudos to Richmond. Their amphitheater is awesome. It's awesome. Like, it looks out over the downtown. One of the buildings, even, and I think this was real, had all of this, like, psychedelic stuff going on the building to go along with the show. We're not sure if it was real. We know there were other breakers there because we sent a lot of photos. If anyone else can confirm if those were real or not in the comments, Ella, help us. So, Ryan, was the show even more enjoyable knowing that it was built on top of Saga Shame? Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, Saga was there in spirit in his shame. Yes. Although it's almost now empowering because Saga is profiting off of his shame. Oh, he's loving it. Yes. It's almost, well, I'm not going to say what I was going to say. Yeah, he's loving it. Yeah, I met people there who said they helped me get there, so it was great. Yes. All right. Well, now that we've gotten through our incredible opening, we've got a big show today. We have Professor Pate, returning champion. Yes. He is. He nailed me yesterday, demanding to get back on the show because he has some very important slides about the new 2,000 troops deployed to the Middle East with Donald Trump saying that he may or may not strike Iran before the midterms. Professor's going to break all that down. We also have Will Lawrence returning to the show as well. We're going to be checking in to see what was the state of his campaign, talking a little bit about AI, but first, let's get to the main attraction this morning, which is, of course, 3.5. Different debates that occurred last evening. We have Abdul, Ossoff, and Troy Jackson. So why don't we start with reacting to a little bit of Abdul and Mike Rogers here. Let's take a listen. What he's talking about, a few weeks ago, he said, I will go back and fight every one of the tariffs that have been put in place. Detroit Diesel added a third shift because of those tariffs. We have the Chevy Silverado came back to Michigan. Huge. Billion-dollar investment. Because of those tariffs. We saved Traverse City Cherries because of those tariffs. He wants to undo it because he can't see past his own political rhetoric. We didn't change. What we said is things move. We're trying to get it wrapped up. We want a deal on those tariff deals. Dr. El-Sayed, 30 seconds. We have to move on. Weak, cowardly, won't stand up until his poll numbers drop. This is what you can expect from a guy who's bought off $5 million. He's got a lot of money. At least Florida's in the United States. florida's in the united states for now for now um so we also had a a little confrontation or two i want to play back to back about the war uh let's take a listen he said he thinks the war is going to end he's got a direct line to the president who's making sure the war does not end and he's not using it because he's true led this war the entire time and this is not a when it ends we need to end it that's what you're electing a u.s senator to do to stand up to donald trump and end this stupid war so we've got that one and then we've also got uh another attack on abdul al-sayyed here about uh groceries and gas he's talking what he's trying to tell you where he wants you to be that's a con man so so we've got to stay on time i just i just want to respond to this you can respond remember what i said he wanted to make this about him or me but the question is about you can you afford your gas can you afford your groceries under this guy who's going to rubber stamp everything donald trump tells him to rubber stamp you can't afford your gas can you afford your groceries can you afford your groceries you're going to continue to pay way more out the nose because he works for corporations and donald trump quite a performance from mr abdul here uh is there a mike rogers contingent that is really happy about the war continuing it wants it to continue on emily do you have any sense of of in michigan if there is a loud minority that's still happy that we're keeping the nukes from the ayatollah when even mike rogers is flip-flopping on the iran war you know that the iran war is deeply unpopular by the way michelle to foya who's running a shockingly close race with peggy flanagan i'm genuinely surprised by how close those numbers are probably still not going to win but very close she came out against the iran war this week after previously being an ardent defender of it so interesting interesting signs happening there yeah new poll came out in that race that you know who knows it's one of many but that had um flag flanagan opening up a wider lead in minnesota which just given you know the state i wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being a pretty comfortable victory for her but we'll see i think in those clips you saw some of the dynamics of what the the case abdul was really trying to prosecute throughout the entire night where mike rogers was trying to i mean there's a ton of dog whistling here and oh he's from egypt he's not even from here he's not really michigan you know he's foreign he loves the muslim brotherhood he can't condemn terrorism all this kind of nonsense which fits with trump calling him muhammad for some reason saying that he loves jihad and just total islamophobic bullshit is a lot of what is coming from the republicans against abdul and then trying to also just sort of muddy the waters abdul has this very strong anti-corruption anti you know corporate pack money um stance and so trying to sort of muddy things and confuse voters about whether or not abdul really stands on principle on those things abdul on the other hand consistently said hey this isn't about me he wants to talk about me he wants to talk about my mom he wants to talk about you know where where i've lived in my life and my medical degree it's not about me it's not about me it's not about me it's not about me it's about you it's about your gas prices about can you get health care and i think it's a very effective frame um and on the other hand mike roger and the other piece of abdul's argument was tying mike rogers to trump constantly constantly tying him to trump and asaf did you know a similar thing frankly down in georgia as well but um you know i think that just shows you how incredibly unpopular trump is at this moment that that is a central strategy of saying mike rogers is just going to go along with trump the only time he breaks from his money it's convenient for him he sees the poll numbers are dropping he's desperate but he's going to be a rubber stamp for trump and um you know i think that's going to it's just a very difficult thing for anyone to run against having myself run during the tea party wave when there was a whole rush to try for democrats to try to distance themselves from obama nancy pelosi crystal over there that's right yeah and i think emily's right that tariffs policy kind of runs on trust and so mike rogers claimed that he was going to be a rubber stamp for trump and he's going to be a rubber stamp for trump and i think emily's right that tariffs policy kind of runs on trust and so mike rogers that look you know the tariffs were actually good for some elements of the economy is accurate as far as it goes and that would work to a public that has faith that they're being done in good faith and that there's going to be some kind of reasonable path forward but i don't think anybody thinks that i think they just think that trump is just kind of a tariff lunatic uh that it's not even obvious he has the best interest of the country or the state uh in mind and if some people benefit from it that's probably just trump getting lucky like i don't so i so i think it just puts mike rogers on the side of trump even even when he's defending you know the couple of scenarios where the tariffs actually were beneficial because i think in general in michigan people are fine with tariffs to the extent that they protect uh the auto industry but not as it relates to a massive trade war with the country just to the north well not if it's being done in a way that's costing rather right adding meaning people are betting on other countries and other supply chains right yeah i get that cheap road salt yes yes and so john ossoff was mentioned so i'd like us to turn over to georgia for a second here for a completely separate thrashing of mike collins uh let's take a listen to the clip that uh got shared around the most which is the billy club clip let's take a listen this question is for both of you georgia has been at the center of fights over voting rules and election administration what voting rules should be left to georgia to decide and when ever should the federal government step in editor 60 seconds well look georgia has voter id and that's good mike collins and donald trump they're still obsessed with overturning the 2020 election mike collins still believes the 2020 election was stolen mike collins has supported donald trump's effort to overturn the election and he wants to give your tax dollars to the violent thugs and criminals who sacked the u.s capital on january 6th mike collins is attacking your voting rights but that's not a surprise when you consider who mike collins is this is a man who cheered on a group of young men who were mocking a black woman on a college campus with monkey sounds if john lewis were marching today from selma to montgomery mike collins would be grabbing a billy club his office has been in cahoots with him and he's been in cahoots with him for a long time with some of the most notorious white supremacists on the country he himself has amplified neo-nazi propaganda he's never apologized for it and he should tonight all right and that's mike collins on the right here furiously writing notes like what's he writing there while he's billy clubs billy club billy club uh so yeah i mean uh from watching the whole awesome debate very impressive very surgical in how he would break down his arguments uh what did you guys make emily i'm curious for your take on this because i know you often take umbrage at unnecessary charges of kind of racism or extremism leveled by uh democrats but mike collins is he is quite out there um so i wonder if you're like you know what this guy he kind of earns it there's a lot for a lot for us off to work with with this guy the son-in-law is inexcusable there's no way that you can uh and he's not going to be able to do anything yeah i mean that's true like i i like really don't like it when we categorically say this person is x y or z but in mike collins case i think he is given as x y and z said well why would you his son-in-law lives with him and there's an earlier clip i don't know if we want to play it or not where um asaf says there's white supremacist propaganda coming from your home because his son-in-law lives with him and cons has tries to flip it on asaf and say that's my family you're talking about and everyone's like yeah that's the problem he's like we're not talking and this is partially why i think it's important to be careful with terms because this dude is a literal white supremacist like what he says is like american history x like it is he's like i'm a white supremacist yes um and so mike collins has zero answer to that and asaf who is an enormous political talent is just absolutely cooking him with it yeah it's also a sign of what a different georgia this is from your grandfather's georgia that you know asaf really leaned into the attacks on collins throughout the entire um throughout the night and he did not hold back you know he called him a bigot he he used the lines that that you were indicating emily saying this is coming out of your own household he said you your staff is like in the kkk or something like that i mean he really went in he said he hired half the third right the third right to staff your campaign and um you know i mean first of all i think look asaf looks like he's in really good shape for this uh which at the beginning of the election season right after trump was elected i thought he may really be in trouble for his re-elect and here he is cruising to victory republicans have basically pulled out of georgia and north carolina is like this is not going to happen for us um so that is you know really pretty incredible and testament to his political strength but you've got a few things here you've got a large educated white suburban population and you have a large black population in the state as well and that is the rising coalition that has really moved georgia into the democratic column so um i think these attacks land pretty hard when you talk about all of that well that is another thing like he has had issues with his staffers so it's not just the son-in-law and when you put those two things together like again his son-in-law is not just somebody who disagrees with people on george floyd his son-in-law is like an actual racist and when you combine those two things it's very difficult for mike collins to flip it around and be like that's my family how dare you at one point he's like i've told my son-in-law that i think racism is disgusting it's like oh you sure you have yeah griffin do you griffin do you You have the third Reich one. I have it if you don't have it handy. I don't know if we have time because we did need to hit a few other things, but is there anything you wanted to – we can play it. Just one minute. Let me – there we go. It is pretty good. It also shows – you described Asaf as surgical, and I think that's quite precise. All right. I got it right here. First of all, no Georgia family or small business should pay a dime more to subsidize the energy consumption of these data centers. No local community should have these data centers imposed on them. But that same budget bill we've been discussing all night, the one that slashed Medicaid, the one that doubled your health insurance premiums, it also gave $70 billion of your money to data center developers. Just think about this. When you are paying more for your health insurance, when a hospital in your community is closing down, Mike Collins voted to take that money out of your pocket and out of your community and give it instead. And that's the problem, Mike. It's not just that you've hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office and you have promoted neo-Nazi content online. It's that you're robbing your constituents to subsidize your donors. I want to know if you will commit to voting to repeal that data center tax scam that you voted for. Brutal. Devastating. I mean, how do you respond to that? Like, it's not just that you hired half the Third Reich and you're a frigging bigot and a white supremacist. Yeah. It's also that you are taking money from people out of people's health care and sending it to these tech oligarchs to build these data centers that everybody hates. I mean, what more? Like, that was masterful. Honestly, putting all that together was quite impressive. He did that exact form on David Perdue where he was like, in this famous line where he's like, it's not just that you're a crook. It's also, you know, that you're making life worse for people in Georgia or whatever it was. So he throws like eight different things at him. So exactly. How do you respond to that? It's like, well, hold on. I want to I want to pick up on the Third Reich point that he made. And then then you don't do the data center part. You don't do the tax part. It's like, well, and that was the other thing. In addition to terrorists and obviously the Iran war, data centers have come up quite a bit in all of these debates, too. And, you know, Republicans often on the on the defensive with regard to them, because obviously they've become so deeply unpopular. Griffin, probably the last one we should play here that we should get in is this one where he's. He's asked about about genocide. Ossoff has asked whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. And he really hedges and sort of dodges the question. Let's go and take a look at that one. Since the October 7th terror attack in Israel, Israel's response has led to a major divide in your party, with many prominent Democrats accusing Israel of committing genocide. You yourself voted to block a shipment of arms to Israel seen by many in Atlanta's Jewish community as a betrayal. Do you believe Israel is guilty? Of committing genocide? Are you alarmed by the growing anti Israel sentiment within your party? And will you vote yes or no on the administration's latest $2.8 billion weapons package for Israel? And you have 60 seconds. Thank you, Rick. The question of genocide is a question of whether a government has the specific intent to destroy a national or ethnic group. And that is a question for the International Criminal Court. There is no doubt in my mind. That Israeli forces prosecuting the war in Gaza violated the law of armed conflict and international humanitarian law. And I care deeply about the security of the Israeli people, among whom are members of my family. I also care about innocent Palestinian life and make no apology for my votes. But Congressman Mike Collins wants to sanction and defund the International Criminal Court. His view is that there should not be accountability. For crimes against humanity, no matter who commits them. All right. Yeah. I mean, just so lame. Like, I don't know when these politicians are going to figure out. You can't find some centrist split the baby position on genocide. And so he's he's trying to be too cute here. I don't know what he really thinks and who he's trying to please here, whether this is genuinely his view. But it's preposterous to imagine that the term genocide is useful if you're waiting for some ICC process. To play out that may take years or may not happen at all. The whole idea of international law is to try to prevent the atrocities. So if it's, you know, deemed a genocide 30 years down the road, that doesn't help anyone in the near term. And obviously you have basically every international human rights body, including some in Israel, who have looked at this, who say, yes, it's a genocide. So I think this smacks of a cowardly, overly calculated political statement here. That was clearly very practiced right out of the briefing book. Yeah. And they kept. The calculation becomes apparent towards the end of it, where he's saying, like, look, Mike Collins doesn't even believe in the ICC. So at least, like, I'm saying that they should be prosecuted there and see where that goes. I also think, and this is a minority opinion, probably, if you're going to have a transformation of U.S. policy towards Israel, somebody like Asaf, who has tried so hard to build credibility with kind of the pro-Israel world and isn't successful at it. Could be probably one of the strongest candidates to do that. If you look at the responses to him from the pro-Israel crowd to that answer, they're, like, done with him. They're, like, how dare you? How dare you even bring up the ICC when it comes to Israel? It's, like, you haven't learned at this point that unless you are lockstep with them, then you're dead to them. Like, there's no pleasing them outside of completely 100 percent towing the line. The minute that you, you know, blocked that shipment or whatever he voted against, it was over. It was done. So what are you doing? I mean, either his genuine view is that he is a Zionist and he's pro-Israel, and so he doesn't want to say genocide, even though this is clearly where the base and where the majority. The American people are at this point. Or he's, you know, stuck in sort of politics of the past, trying to please a group that's already abandoned him. And I think it's probably he's just coasting. He's up 10 or whatever. Yeah. And he's, like, I haven't yet called it a genocide. I'm not going to make a news cycle out of calling it a genocide. I'm just going to coast to November 3rd, win by my 10 points, and then deal with the problems that Crystal's identifying, you know, on November 4th. Because all expectations. Is that he's going to run for president. And I think you're right. I don't think you can do a primary getting asked at every single event this question. He's going to have to bandaid off. But I think he's thinking, I mean, I'm ripping it off on November 4th or whatever, or, you know, January of next year. Look forward to my take in a couple of months. Look forward to my take. I'm just coasting into this Mike Collins defeat. He's way too talented to be serving up like Pete Buttigieg 2.0. Like, he could be so much more than that. But it feels like he's still kind of in that safety lane. Yeah. And what you're laying out, Ryan, is basically once it's safe for him and it imposes no political costs and only has political upside, undeniable political upside. That's when he'll actually admit that this is a genocide and agree with the global international consensus. And I don't think that that's going to cut it for people because I think it's very transparent. So you easily could have said the same thing, that the definition of genocide is the. Specific intent to destroy a nationality in whole or in part. And clearly, based on their own statements, that is what is happening in Gaza. Like, just, just, you know, forget about what has happened, which is obvious. But just based on their statements, he could say, that is my, that is my assessment. And anybody who thinks that that's not the case hasn't listened to Israeli officials as they've spoken publicly about it. But, you know, I think he just wants to win by 10. All right. Well, we don't have enough time to get to the Troy Jackson debate because we've got. We can do it after we after we'll. OK, yeah, maybe we can lop it on there if you if you have any clips, Ryan. But right now we've got to get over to Mr. Professor Pape. It's the rage bait. We got clear facts. NBC News reporting for America. I'm Hamza and I'm Martin, and we're the hosts of Out of Character. It's a podcast. I know there's a lot of them to listen to these days. How are you going to get to us? Well, there's a specific reason why you should listen to us. We are the best podcast in the entire world. I swear. I know, bold. But why don't we list some of the things we might talk about on a regular episode? So sometimes we'll talk about, I don't know, the Uber driver we just had. And how nice they were, or if we tipped them or not. Come and find out. Sometimes we'll talk about that weird news story from last week. It's the one you're thinking about. Trust me. Or maybe we'll talk about music and what's happening in the underground, or drama and music, or TV shows, or the Met Gala and what the actors wore. What we're saying is we're not afraid to talk about everything. 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On the iHeartRadio. app apple pods or wherever you get your podcasts lisa we should tell them about our new show oh my god lexi we have a new podcast it's called don't lie to me i'm lexi iwanu we're two best friends 22 years apart but so close at heart and i'm lisa di giulio the old one which means we have wildly different references occasionally different opinions and at this point in my 50s i've lived it until i'm not gonna get anywhere fighting that is wild i learned that about you today now in my 30s being the founder of new shoes good taste is my business and i've always got something to say if men were just honest about this there would be so much more peace in the world we're gonna talk about dating relationships beauty getting older and a little wiser we're best friends but we don't always agree because you told us how accommodating you are obviously i would do whatever i wanted to do but i'm not gonna do that i'm not gonna do that i'm not gonna do that obviously i would do whatever i wanted to do but i'm not gonna do that obviously i would do whatever i wanted to do but i'm not gonna do that what i think i could do to to fight the fight but there's only so much fight i can fight don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me liar listen on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts i don't really care professor welcome back to the show how are you this friday morning oh i'm i'm great and thanks for letting me listen in um crystal your point is that i'm not gonna be able to do anything why we've never stopped a genocide since 1944 so i published multiple articles on this and international security um so this is an area i don't want to talk about it today but i just want to let you know your point that by the time you define it as a genocide it's too late every genocide that has occurred since the accords were created has never been stopped for this reason and the biggest case is rwanda by the clinton administration which comes in saying they're going to stop the genocide and they're going to stop the genocide and they're going to stop all the genocides and then what happened is they debated it for months and months and madeline albright none of them could do it and the and your point is exactly the catch-22 and so the problem is the international community's accords are not worth the paper they're written on the genocide accords are worthless and nobody wants to say that but the problem is it's been almost 100 years and your point is always the reason we have never seen stop the genocide all right well professor i'm not coming at it from the right i'm not defending genocide no no no yeah yeah we we get you we get you well that's a very inspiring start uh my job is to doom and gloom you and then you say no it's not so bad it's it's real talk so let's move on to some real talk about uh the new deployment that you uh reached out to want to talk about and you sent me some wonderful slides and you call this washington's gift to explain a little more of that and i can pull up slides whenever you'd like that's right so i think it's very important to understand we are in the most dangerous part of the escalation trap that i've been talking about for many months and it's because the key issue for the trap is president trump be losing political power and becoming jimmy carter that is um apps and that is what is on offer in the midterm elections that's what is coming and that is why i believe and i've been very concerned about this and i realize that a lot of people have been been on the other side that that as we get to the midterms president trump will be have tremendous incentives to escalate either just before the midterms or after during the counting of the vote and what you're seeing just in the last week is strong evidence of those preparations so on uh september 27th here it's actually a little more than a week ago that's when you see the movement of uh the roosevelt but we also now just in the last couple days know that president trump has given orders for the pentagon to generate options now he's not saying he's made a decision to do it that presidents never will do that in advance so what you are seeing is um quite serious preparations for major escalation and it's important then now to talk about the consequences and so what i'd like to do is walk you through this uh short few slides to explain the window a little more clearly why we're in this key window second is i want to pick just a couple scenarios to show how truly disastrous they would be and i realize that with what um you know 75 of the public or 70 of the public against the war you don't want to talk about this because um we really are in a position where we need to make sure these consequences are front and center as president trump is looking at these plans in the oval office so this is not to persuade the 70 percent this is really to try to get ahead of potential really negative consequences so i call it the gift because i'm trying to explain that we have options to escalate um we we have options to escalate but we have no options to get ahead of the potential negative consequences so i call it the gift because i'm trying to explain that we have options to escalate um we we have options to escalate but we have no options to get ahead of potential really negative consequences so i call it the gift because i'm trying to explain that we have options to escalate um we we have options to escalate but we have no no options to escalate advantageously and that is what's crucial to know and therefore what we're doing with these escalations if we did them are true gifts to tehran they will help tehran so i just want to point out that i've just explained the crucial date of november 3rd but i want to point out the three clocks as they are pushing to this date and how they work so first as we all know the theodore roosevelt and another 2 000 marines that are able to land are moving and they started on september 27th it will take about five weeks before they're fully in position uh and that is and i'm showing you on the clock where we are roughly today uh but it's important to know that the roosevelt will be within firing range before the five weeks are up so as we get closer here this really is a very important time to know that the roosevelt will be within firing range for capability the second clock is the strategic petroleum reserve and this is we have run down our cushion this is why we can't simply open the spigots now to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel in the united states the way the president might want to do it's because we've run down to the point where we're still doing a trickle out but if we were to have gushers come out we could actually collapse the walls and what that means is trump doesn't have the option to improve his prospects here by and iran may well increase the pressure and just in the last seven days iran has struck more ships in the strait of hormuz than in any seven-day period since the beginning of the war seven and a half months ago so this is a major clock weighing i'm sure on the president the third clock is a clock of opportunity that i suspect is weighing on the president which is um what are the economic costs inside of iran right now now as you know i've studied blockades economic sanctions for 30 years not just air power for 30 years and it is the case that our blockade is having truly important economic pressure inside of iran we have increased the inflation rate inside of iran to 89 nearly a hundred percent but it is not yet producing political concessions so we're not going to be able to do that we're not going to be able to do that we're very easy to imagine if you're sitting there with power that oh i'll have the capability and the reason to do what hit iran now to drive up that inflation to 150 percent 200 percent that is find the breaking point and you've heard president trump use those terms so now i want to talk about the consequences of what are likely the options coming on the desk in the oval office so i want to just pick two options which anybody i mean somebody i'm just saying so the first option is going to be uh hitting oil refineries in um uh in iran and why oil refineries exactly will be an option the reason is because uh what most people don't know they all know iran exports oil what most people don't know is two-thirds of iran's oil is used consumed domestically they don't export all of their oil they don't export all of their oil they don't export all of their oil and that's why inside of iran gasoline costs pennies literally penny now if you knock out the refineries under those conditions uh we've already blockaded the oil so that's not the issue the issue is driving up the economic costs inside of iran so this will be the the the incentive as you're looking at these refineries the problem here is iran has escalation dominance it's not just a tit for tat i'm going to point out that there is a very clear target it's already been hit on the edges uh just in the last week uh and that is ab cake what ab cake is is the largest oil facility in the world it is a saudi oil facility that handles seven million barrels a day that's over five percent of the world's energy consumption in one facility so that amount of oil, they separate there, by the way, the sulfur from the oil. It's what makes it called sweeter. That amount of oil, 7 million, is three times the export of Iran's exports on its best days in the last two years. So Iran doesn't just have tit for tat. Iran can literally, with probably 20 drone and missile combination that we cannot shoot down and you cannot bury that target here, they can knock out 5% of that oil. And then we won't be worrying about the East-West Pipeline because that's what goes to the East-West Pipeline. We won't be worrying about Yonbu and we will truly be in a very different world when it comes to the price of gasoline and diesel and also our treasury. If we drive up, if we do this, our treasury rates could easily, certainly the 30-year bond, could easily go over 6%. And now we're in not just recession territory, but deep economic territory. This is a gift to Iran. Iran is so angry at us right now. I think there are people, right now, Arachi, the foreign minister, is in deep trouble for even talking about a deal in New York, if you're following this inside Iran. And what you are seeing is, I think, that there are large parts of the Iranian government itching to wreck the American economy. So the biggest gift to Iran would be the ground options. And I've been warning about these for months. And I realize you folks have pushed back on me, oh, we couldn't possibly do this here. I just want to point out why and what the incentive would be to do it. What is the actual incentive? Well, the first thing you need to know is that Iran's drones and missiles require targeting locations separately from the sensor on the drone and the missile. It's called, in the military, the kill chain. That kill chain comes from spotters that zero in to a location for the ship that's supposed to be targeted, that allows then the sensor on the missile or drone to do the final work of spotting. And that's what we're seeing. And that's hitting the target. And that's what the main spotters have been radars. So the reason we've been hitting radars over the last few months is to knock out the most obvious spotters by Iran, which are the radars. That's not working now. And that is what has been happening just in the last week. So many people have been saying, well, does Iran have the capability to hit ships? They've had the capability. And now it's clear they have the capability. So what's the incentive? The incentive would be go the next step. The incentive would be go the next step and actually take the territory those radars are on. And that's Larrick Island. That's Hormuz Island. That is some of the coastal areas of Iran. That's what the issue actually is. And I'm bringing it up now because it's now time to talk about clearly what the incentive would be. Now, the problem here and the reason this is a bad idea is because Iran doesn't need those specific pieces of territory, Larrick, Chabahar, or Bandar Abbas, or Hormuz Island in order to spot. It has other options. First of all, it has mobile radars. Second, those fast boats, you might say, well, what do they want those fast boats for anyway? What's that doing with Iran? They're spotters. They are, and also fishing boats, by the way. And they are able through eyeball contact to see a ship and then radio it in with enough location for the, and the, and these could be coming from, you know, from, you know, dozens of inlets here. And then the third issue is a third option for Iran is mines, which don't need spotters. And that is something that, and what I'm pointing out is that the trade here is we might try to do this because of the military incentive. I'm pointing out that's what's, that's what CENTCOM is going to be reporting on to President Trump. Here's the incentive. The problem is that this will not be very effective in shutting down the operational capabilities of the military. And so, you know, we're going to have to, you know, of the drones and missiles and Iran gets American fixed targets. They get to shoot the fish in the barrel and the terrain on all of these areas has no cover, no cover. So what does Iran get here with these rungs on the escalation ladder gifts? And what are the gifts in one word targets? And the biggest thing to be aware of the opportunity for preemption. You see, even moving the Roosevelt and the Marines in this area is creating the spiral dynamics of the escalation trap. That's why I've been calling on my escalation trap sub stack for them to return home. Not good enough for President Trump. Just, Oh, I'm not necessarily going to use them. This is creating the incentive for Iran for preemption. Now, just imagine if we were, uh, if, if we in America saw Chinese, um, vessels and troops, uh, and naval ships coming to our coasts in Florida, are we really going to take she's word? He's not going to use them. We're just going to come and we're just coming for a port visit. No, think of Iran going through this. So the danger zone I'm pointing out is not simply will, um, Trump have an itchy trigger figure. I'm saying that the real set of incentives is that plus Iran preemption, which I'm going to be talking more about, uh, here in the coming weeks, because this is how you get into these wicked spiral phases of an escalation trap. And this is what I want to talk about and why the real policy here should be. So professor, um, one, uh, theory that I've seen laid out by others is that perhaps in advance of the midterms, there may be a coinciding of logic from the Iranian side and from the U S side that would incentivize some sort of a deal before the midterms from the Iranian side, the thought would be Trump is under tons of pressure now because of the midterms, but after the midterms are over, maybe we won't have so much leverage. So maybe we can get a better deal now, while he's feeling the pain, the logic from Trump would be, I'm about to get blown out. I need to do something about this Iran war. Let me have some sort of a deal so I can announce mission accomplished. And hopefully gas prices can go down a little bit and I won't have quite as bad of a result as I would. What do you think of that theory? I'll make two points. Number one, if there was, uh, any real substance to that, Arachi would not be now at risk of his life. So numbered. So this is not a small, thing that's happening to Arachi. And, um, it doesn't have to be simply the government who might, um, uh, penalize him, him being he, when he went through the Supreme leader's funeral, he, there were people calling for his death into his face. So number one, um, here is that number two, uh, crystal, and this is the real problem. There's no firm set point for a deal. So this whole idea of a deal is really by people who say, well, wait a minute, war is bad. War is costly. Can't we just solve this with a deal without all the debt? Well, if that were true, crystal, we wouldn't have had world war one, world war two, all of the wars in history. So the problem here is not that these are not well-meaning people who are coming up with these ideas. And I'm not surprised that you have people who come from business who say, you know what? Blood is costly. Let's just do this. Like the Godfather. Right. Um, and the problem is that this is not the real world. The real world is there's no set point. Even if there was a deal as there was on June 17th with the MOU, it would likely collapse within days just as the MOU did. Cause there's no set point here. Both sides are trying to gain, uh, power over the other. And until you would have a acceptance by both sides of what the new power is, a balance of power, you won't have an end to the war. And I don't believe, uh, Iran will truly accept, uh, the war. Uh, surrendering its power in Hormuz. And I don't be believe Trump will truly accept giving Iran the power of Hormuz because that, that what that's about is not money. It's about Iran becoming the fourth center of world power. No state in history, um, uh, has truly wanted to abandon power. Um, and this is a, this is what you're at. This is what we're asking. So I like the idea of a deal. I would love there to be a deal. I would love to see a deal. I would love to be a deal. Uh, some of the people advocating for a deal are people I highly respect, not just journalists. And the problem is, um, this doesn't work. It's also why, by the way, uh, Joe Kent and others calling for just walking away. Notice they're not walking away. And as I've talked many times to Joe about, it's not that I disagree with his policy so much. It's, it's not realistic politically. You're just not going to get, um, president Trump to accept. He will become Jimmy Carter, uh, without, uh, quite a fight, uh, here. And that's what you're seeing. So the one thing I'd ask is on the, the logic of Iran, uh, needing to preempt this the counter argument would be we're looking at we're approaching six percent you know on the 10-year and the two-year treasury as it is like yesterday mortgage rates were at 7.4 percent oil over a hundred dollars the west the west and the u.s in particular are bleeding badly and it's not existential for the u.s so yes iran is suffering but it's existential for them so therefore just by definition they're willing to take more more pain at the same time every day that there's not a hot conflict they're able to build more ballistic missiles more drones import more missiles and drones from russia or china wherever they're getting them uh and you know prepare better for whenever the confrontation comes again so that would be the counter argument to say that actually iran is in better shape letting us bleed and letting us bleed and letting us bleed and letting us bleed themselves build up while they wait next time what do you what do you make of that so one real point here ryan which is what if you were iran what would it take for you to be persuaded that america has learned its lesson what would it really take and let me pause it what might be a credible thing which is number one the democrats take both houses of congress and number two they passed a veto proof resolution through congress that ends money for the war so if you got both of those things and you're in tehran you're probably saying okay i'm not sure uh the democrats might you know bail on this but if i get the democrats in power and i get veto proof resolution to end the war that's what happened in 1974 how we actually ended the vietnam war now i think you're talking short of that ryan this is just smoke and mirrors this there's no there there there's nothing to actually bet on if you're in tehran you're in tehran you're in tehran tehran there's there's and keep in mind for iran this is for them to take the risk this is the risk of at their life so you're you're asking not you personally but that position is asking iran to take a sucker deal hey we're gonna promise to give you the money let me give you the iou and then we'll promise to pay you in installments over the next few years but you give me everything i want up front right now that's the whole problem here well it wouldn't be the they would take a deal it would be that they just would continue the status quo it's still i'm sorry to interrupt but whether the deal is written or not it's still the same idea okay so in in my world of international politics it doesn't matter whether the deal is actually written down or not here it's it's still the same thing and what their incentive is ryan is to drive up the costs on america through the first week in january and that is through when the uh you might not it's not just the the vote it's the counting of the vote seeding of the new representatives because it's not clear we've had january 6th if you're in iran you know there was in january 6th the president is still the same president so you're gonna wait until you see will the democrats actually be able to take power and then the second thing is once they take power can they actually do anything with that power that's meaning and if not then it's the imperial president he's just going to be able to do what he's going to do and you're not you're missing your opportunity here um and so the way to handle this if you're around the incentive structure is uh to ramp up the cost and by the way ryan this is what i said starting june 15th that they would ramp up the costs they are ramping up the cost so so that position you laid out is exactly the debate we had on june 17th and the problem is iran is following their incentives it's it's not a uh it's it's not um a weird set of incentives these are not perverse incentives they are trying to uh they are driving a hard bargain this is what it looks like this is what the hard bargaining actually looks like in international politics professor paper how would any of this change or not change if president trump were to authorize uh u.s involvement one more direct u.s involvement with the houthis right now what that would do is uh speed up the um the preemption uh incentives here for uh iran so if if um if we get involved in the houthi situation at all whether it's bombing uh whether we move the marines over etc etc it doesn't really matter what the option is all of those just add to the possible pressure because then you have pakistan possibly coming in you start with so all of that means um iran's window for preemption um uh intensifies and i wouldn't want to be an ab cake uh here um when that happens so this is and it's not just ab cake as a facility uh here um it really is important to understand that if ab cake goes down mbs the government uh is fragile and so if i if if um if i'm mbs i better have some some really good real estate in new york paris and london uh because this war that's escalating in yemen is escalating in the wrong way and um this is not the way to handle this with your mbs so again we're this is getting into the issue of mbs so i'm about to talk about this on sunday i'm asked on professor pate that what's happening is they're in their own escalation trap mbs's and he's making the same mistakes that trump is making that putin made in his escalation trap now mbs is making the same mistakes the problem is mbs is weak than russia and weaker than the united states so when mbs makes these mistakes you better get those good real estate deals now i'm sorry to make it a little i mean it's such a serious situation we got to let off some of the some of the some of the tension but honestly i mean this is literally what i would be saying in meetings with the kingdom i mean i'm not there would be no real maybe a little more detail on what how the escalation dynamics would actually play out but in terms of the incentive structure they're going down they're they're handling this the wrong way all right well we hope the kingdom is watching this was informative as always professor and of course all of this and more is broken down weekly on your sub stack which we will be linking in the description how did i do as your ta today professor did i do okay i'll tell you if you ever need another job griffin you just let me know and i'm looking at my youtube channel okay the problem is the guy who's helping me with my youtube channel who's working 40 hours a week he's doing it for free so you're probably not free you might think i'm making all this money i just had a giant wedding with my daughter and then my you're not you until we get to the your stage of the breaking points there's no money as you probably know i'll i'll i'll take paid exposure uh professor thank you as always and we'll be checking back in with you again soon thank you very much thank you for all you're doing here it's so important and i so appreciate i really honestly don't put this online okay but um i really um having spent 30 years uh remember advising every white house and dot dot dot this was this is a critical few days and that's why i pushed on this uh here now i'm not inside i can't say absolutely as an insider i'm just telling you when you see these atmospherics here now is the time real decisions and expectations are being set and it's very important to do this and you have just a lot of the right people watching you yeah absolutely what you know that's that was a great compliment i'm putting that online professor sorry okay you put that online you put that on but it's very important because we don't understand that these decision makers are human beings i have had a before the decisions are actually taken so i get a chance to see this without the cameras on and i'm not saying that they follow the things i'm saying no that's not it at all what i'm and they do the pushback very much like you guys do and so the issue here though is not understanding we're so cynical about our politics we're saying oh there's nothing i can do there's nothing i can do uh that's what leads to political violence uh but yes there is stuff we can do um and it's really important and i've seen this uh really good example was barack obama was hours away from launching 100 cruise missiles into syria in 2013 and that would have sucked us in to a wider forever war so you think the forever war in iraq was bad man you get sucked into syria you're in deep deep trouble well what happened is i argued very very vigorously that um i don't care what the red lines are president obama is the strongest person on the planet and if this is a mistake it's a mistake don't do this simply because you said you would and thank goodness he didn't do it because syria went on for a decade i mean just think about this we're never going to get out of that right right and syria is looking really great right now professor we have another guest so we got to jump okay thank you as always we'll see you very soon i turned off news altogether i hate to say it but i don't trust my much of anything. - It's the rage bait. it feels like it's trying to divide people we got clear facts maybe we can calm down a little nbc news brings you clear reporting let's meet at the facts let's move forward from there nbc news reporting for america i'm hamza and i'm martin and we're the hosts of out of character it's a podcast i know there's a lot of them to listen to these days how are you going to get to us well there's a specific reason why you should listen to us we are the best podcast in the entire world i swear i know bold but why don't we list some of the things we might talk about on a regular episode so sometimes we'll talk about i don't know the uber driver we just had and how nice they were or if we tipped them or not come and find out sometimes we'll talk about that weird news story from last week it's the one you're thinking about trust me or maybe we'll 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and i've always got something to say if men were just honest about this there would be so much more peace in the world we're gonna talk about dating relationships beauty getting older and a little wiser we're best friends but we don't always agree because you told us how accommodating you are obviously i would do what i think i could do to to fight the fight but there's only so much fight i can fight don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me don't lie to me liar listen on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts i don't really care all right another returning champion to breaking points we have william lawrence who's running for congress for michigan's seventh district welcome back to breaking points will thank you glad to be here one of the best backdrops i think we've seen from a candidate too i have to say those those look handmade those look those don't it doesn't look like you had ai make those those look human made yeah just got the human touch it does incredible uh and speaking of ai i did want to get you react first to the story that came across our desk this morning scoop from axios top executives at anthropic open ai and other ai companies are privately gaming out scenarios for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic ai event those events that they are um considering include a shutdown of financial systems and even of water and electricity uh william what do you make of that well it's very alarming um you know i've been a leader here in michigan uh standing with residents fighting back against data centers for the last year and uh here's how it's gone when the ai lawyers and pr agents come to town they say basically we're here to come suck up all your uh water use all your energy more than the city of detroit we're going to ruin your home values but if everything goes well we're going to put 20 million people out of work and if everything fails we mess up we might kill everybody by accident i don't know it just hasn't been very persuasive and this is another example of uh the question people are asking why is it that we're building these data centers when they're saying that it may be used to shut down the entire financial system or create a bioweapon the costs simply outweigh the benefits and uh you made that case most recently in your debate against uh mr barrett here so i did want to play a little bit from that debate specifically about ai to see uh what the what your opponent has to say about all this let's take a listen my record on this is clear and i have an un uh you know a record that is clear this is completely different from the fight that we're fighting now which is against hyperscale data centers these behemoths that are threatening to destroy everything about the communities we love you voted last year to prevent local control local regulation of ai or data centers for the next 10 years that means that if a school district didn't want ai in the classrooms they would not be allowed to do so if we wanted to say that ai could not be used to deny medical claims they would not be allowed to make that regulation all right so uh it does seem like the opponents especially on the republican side are trying to stake out some sort of territory on this issue but it seems a little flimsy he said out true that he passed a bill uh with a 10-year ban on an ai laws could you explain that a little bit more and well can you also just tacking on that can you tell us a little bit what you're hearing on the ground from voters when you talk to them does this matter is this like abstract beltway conversation or do people really care about this too people really care about it people started caring about it because the data centers were you know just plopping down or proposing to plop down in their backyards and they weren't happy about it um but the ai conversation has always been about the data centers and they weren't happy about it and they weren't happy about it in the background people are saying you know for the sake of what i mean here in michigan you know this is an industrial state we build things we build cars if you're talking about an auto plant that is going to create uh thousands of good jobs and actually build things that people agree we need you know that's one thing but if you're talking about a data center that's only creating a couple of dozen of permanent jobs and then the upshot of it is that we're going to have you know the risk of um some sort of runaway ai that is all over the place and that's what we're talking about also going to put us out of work it just is not persuasive and so i'm really thrilled that the conversation about data centers and ai safety have now seemingly arrived at the same station finally there was a lot of months where it was sort of simmering under the surface and i'm really glad that we're having this conversation all in one now but you saw tom barrett my opponent sort of buffering there when he was trying to recall what his uh incredibly clear position on data centers actually is because the fact of the matter is um you know data center developers spent nearly a million dollars to get him elected in the last cycle then he turned around and gave them 80 billion dollars in tax breaks through the big bill he also voted as i noted to prevent any local or state regulation of ai and data centers for the next 10 years that thank god did not pass no thanks to him but it was because the united states senate took that provision out of the final bill that actually passed if it had passed i mean think about how radical and reckless this was house republicans voted to ban any municipal or state regulation of ai or data centers for the next 10 years that's what they did last year in their infinite wisdom it would be catastrophic if that had happened i mean look at where we are now the conversations we're having now they wanted to tie our hands behind our back before this conversation around ai safety could really even get started um so thankfully cooler heads prevailed in that case uh but you know barrett voted the wrong way and then you know he got the same memo as a lot of other people about six weeks ago um where you know they said oh boy this is really popular yeah let me ask you about that he he alludes in that clip to i think it was about two weeks after you won the primary largely on you know running on opposition to data centers he says well i you know now i sponsored a good bill what which seems similar to his kind of turnaround on the war but what what is that good bill that he's he's referring to that he that he recently co-sponsored um he so there's been a he keeps going back to it he's struggling to get it right first he sponsored a bill that to hear him tell it banned non-disclosure agreements um uh for data center developers but then when we went and we read the text of the bill it said ndas are banned for members of congress but state and municipal officials can continue to sign ndas that's been the problem the rub hasn't been congress members i mean maybe he knows something i don't maybe he has an nda uh every accusation is a confession as we say but um you know it's the local officials that have been the issue that people have been really pissed about here in the district and his bill uh did nothing to deal with that now he got called out because that bill did nothing and now he's introduced another bill or co-sponsored another bill that probably isn't going to go anywhere that goes far beyond the bill that he's been calling out so far they're on the nda so i i give him that modicum of credit that he is a co-sponsor now on a bill that would ban ndas he's introduced or co-sponsored some other bills that are there's a lot of bills i think there are a lot of congressmen and women around the country right now who are trying to give the appearance of doing something when it comes to the question of ai and data centers because of just how hot it's gotten over the last few weeks so he's co-sponsored a few of these but people can see that he's scrambling and trying to uh cover his book because he was on the wrong side of this, decidedly so, for the first 18 months of his term in office. And where are you on whether Hakeem Jeffries should maintain his position? Should you be elected? How would you handle the question of getting or keeping Hakeem Jeffries in the position of leadership or finding new leadership for the caucus? Yeah, I've been on the record that I support Hakeem to be the next speaker of the House because we need unity among the Democratic caucus moving into January to be able to focus on reversing the damage that the Trump administration has done over the last two years, as well as having a full accountability agenda so Hegseth and Trump and the rest of them can really be put under the scrutiny that they deserve for their brazen corruption beginning in January, rather than having a knockdown, drag out fight within the Democratic caucus that wouldn't serve our interests of holding the current powers that be accountable. Is there unity in the Democratic leadership on this AI issue? Is Hakeem Jeffries and others aligned with your takes? I mean, what I hear from a lot of other Democrats is that they're scared to be as out and out on this issue as you are because the amount of money that could pour into their own races for opponents against them. So what is your sense of Democratic leadership? And are people like Hakeem Jeffries going to go along? With bills like the Bernie bill that is causing calling for a pause on all AI development? I haven't had that conversation yet with leadership. So that's something we'll take up on November 4th. But it does seem like there's a moment right now where people really are waking up in a sincere way to the threats that are coming from AI. I mean, the scenarios you just described that the labs are, you know, scenario planning. I think there is an opportunity. Not just. Among the Democrats. But I think there may be some some genuine opportunity for even a modest degree of bipartisanship to move on some of these issues in January. Now, maybe that's optimistic. We'll have to see. But the reason for my optimism there comes from the fact that I am seeing complete bipartisanship here in the district among Republicans and independents and Democrats who have been united in large numbers in fighting against data centers and now are catching up to the conversation around AI safety. If they weren't already there. So if we can translate that spirit, you know, to DC, I think there may be a possibility of of getting something real done in the early parts of next year. Now, I've introduced my stop tech overreach plan, which would put an immediate pause on new data centers and advanced AI development for the sake of then brokering an AI benefits compact that ensures, you know, as we move forward with this world changing technology, how can we ensure that it actually, you know, has a positive impact on the world? Yeah. I mean, I think that's a great point. I think it helps everybody rather than entrenching the power of, you know, the power of a few. How is it that we're going to maintain human literacy and critical thinking rather than allowing AI to take over our entire educational system? How is it we're going to ensure that humanity remains at the center even as we continue to use these tools, which is, you know, we're tool using animals. So I'm not somebody who says we should swear it off entirely, but we do need to make sure that it is within our control and we keep our humanity safe. I mean, human values at the center. Just as an aside, I think the Pope is one of the people who has been doing some of the boldest and most consistent communication on this, thinking about the kind of values that we need to be keeping in mind as we, you know, navigate this world with this new AI technology. So Congress has passed a war powers resolution and of ordering an end to the Iran war. Trump has kind of flagrantly ignored that and continues to prosecute the war. He's sending a bunch. More, uh, you know, assets to the region as we speak, would you commit to, um, voting against any spending for the war? In other words, deploying Congress's, you know, power of the purse to kind of force an end, even if it means kind of a showdown with your own leadership or, or, or even potentially a shutdown. Cause I can imagine a world where Republicans are just refusing to vote for any democratic budget, meaning that Jeffries or whoever's in leadership would need 218 Democrats. To get something across the board, which would give a handful of house Democrats leverage to say, I'm not voting for anything unless it bars any money for the Iran war. I was elected to end this war. We're going to end the war. Yep. Yes. Ryan, I actually, uh, saying no to war and setting our national priorities straight, bringing our money home and investing in the American people has been a core plank of my campaign from the very beginning. It's one of the reasons why I got into this race was to fight for the war. To fight for a reevaluation of our national priorities, to put in check the out of control war budget and make different choices with where we put our precious time and creativity and resources. So, uh, there is no fight that I'm more eager for than that fight to ensure that, um, we in this war in Iran, and we put a check on the out of control war budget, which is now, um, climbing up to $1.4 trillion. Uh, on the back of trillions of dollars over the last 25 years to fight forever wars, which we can all see have made us less safe and less prosperous as a nation. Contrary to all the promises that were made. Uh, so I host a show where we get callers and I got a guy named Robin Michigan, uh, who called a couple of weeks ago. He drives a diesel pickup for his business. And there was also that super vowel clip, a clip of the MS now hosts or the MS now host having that. Uh, focus group just a couple of days ago, Michigan voters who were uncertain Trump voters who some of them said they were voting for Abdul El-Sayed. And so my question to you, Will, is as somebody who comes really from like the left flank of the democratic party, how are you talking to people who are desperate, who are disillusioned with Trump, maybe disillusioned with Republicans in general, but are a little nervous about voting for somebody, uh, who, you know, they consider to be like radical socialist. That's their opinion. I'm putting that in their mouths, not in mine necessarily. Well, what does that mean for you, uh, to have those conversations and how are you having those conversations? You know, I really do believe that it's our politics are more about, you know, top versus bottom than left versus right. It's been said many times. I, I have found it to be true on this campaign. I mean, there are, um, uh, you know, multi-time Trump voters who will be voting for me who already voted for me in some cases in the primary. They've seen me at their town hall meetings fighting back against data centers. There are Trump voters who will be voting for me because they are farmers who are, um, putting diesel in their combines for $7 a gallon, $1,000 or more every day from some of the farmers I've heard. And, you know, they're, they're wondering if they're going to break even at all on this year's harvest because it's just so damn expensive to put the fuel in the combine. Uh, and they know that the war is the reason for it. Another big issue that is, is really pissing people off all over Michigan is the tariffs. Um, because, uh, you know, tariffs are supposed to be part of a, uh, you know, industrial and trade policy strategy for the sake of putting American workers and business and consumers first. And I'm someone who believes that tariffs can be important when they're applied strategically and consistently. But what everybody wants from the economy is some kind of clarity. You want to know. You want to know what the prices are going to be next month so you can plan your budget. If you're an investor, you need to know what the business conditions are going to be next year so you can make your investment decisions. When Trump wakes up in the morning and he sets the tariff rate 525 or 55% based on, I guess, how his mood is that day or whoever had his ear last, uh, that is the opposite of reliable business and market conditions. And Congress had the opportunity to take a vote to restrain the president from continuing to set these tariffs. He's so obviously unfit and Tom Barrett voted to allow the president to do whatever he's doing. And he can't answer for that vote to this day. I mean, he's made a lot of reversals on a lot of things, but he stands by that vote to this day. He thinks the president should continue to set the tariffs, uh, based on, uh, Lord knows what. And, uh, so that's a huge issue that has been impacting people. And a lot of Republicans, a lot of Democrats, people in rural areas, anybody who puts diesel in a piece of equipment understands, uh, you know, that the war has been catastrophic. And anybody who works in business or has a small business or works in industry understands that the tariffs have been catastrophic, especially here in Michigan, because of our close integration with, uh, our neighbors in Canada. And I've got one more debate clip, unless you have one. Uh, I had the tariff one, but he kind of, he kind of just did it unless you have a different one. Let me see what I got here. Oh, I got the one where you kind of flipped the script on the, you know, who, who's responsible for the deficit, Democrats or Republicans. Let me, let me find this one. So the top 1% of Americans after the reforms that we took on to the tax code are actually paying a higher percentage of the federal taxes in our country. Meanwhile, working families are paying less. If you're a family of four making $73,000 a year or less in income, you are paying nothing in federal tax liability. That is because of the efforts we took on. Now the top 1% are actually paying more and their income tax rate wasn't driven down by the tax cuts that we passed. a couple more money in the hands of working families. We do need to address our debt and our deficit, but there is not enough billionaires out there to pay for the deficit. Mr. Lawrence, you have 30 seconds to respond. Tom Barrett voted to give tax breaks to billionaires. He voted to cut your health care. He voted to make your gas and groceries more expensive. And he's voted to increase the national debt. He is running from his record because he knows he has repeatedly voted over the last few years to make your life more expensive while making our country weaker. He has no answers for his record or that of his failed president. It seems like the beginning of that is about a tax on billionaires. You talk about this kind of flipping of the script where it's, you know, traditionally it's Democrats who are blamed for, you know, driving up the debt, but that might not be working anymore. No, I mean, the question from the moderators was about the debt, and that's what we were responding to directly while speaking about the economy at large. But Trump is responsible for 30 percent of the national debt. And the Republicans have, you know, voted in lockstep for that, including my opponent, Tom Barrett. They voted to give trillions of dollars in tax breaks to the wealthiest, you know, one percent. And most of that goes to the wealthiest one percent of the one percent. So they just have no leg to stand on in this country. And, you know, this is the thing that we need to remember. They are destroying everything that people love about this country, the economic security, the social safety net, the political order that is based on checks and balances and peaceful transition of power. I mean, it's easy to take for granted, or it was for much of our life, that regardless of how you think things are going, right direction, wrong direction, you know, in two years or in four years, there's going to be another election. There's going to be a peaceful transition of power. There's going to be an opportunity to have a change, to change course and to get it right. That does a lot for your peace of mind when there's somebody you don't like up there in Congress or in the Oval Office. Now, we lack that peace of mind because it's clear that they don't have any respect for checks and balances or the peaceful transition of power whatsoever. I mean, Donald Trump and Tom Barrett and the whole faction of which they are part is responsible for destroying that which has been best about our country. And I don't think we can say that too many times. All of this fear mongering and mudslinging that they want to cast against Democrats, against progressives, against whoever, saying that, you know, we are the ones who would sow chaos. It just is not credible when people can see that we are living in a world of chaos and the lion's share of that is the responsibility of the man currently sitting in the White House and his lackeys. In Congress, like Tom Barrett. All right. Well, Will, it's always a pleasure to talk to you. You've got just a couple weeks left in your big race here. Where can people find more? And if they do want to support you, where can they where can they support you? Go to WeWill2026.com. You can donate. You can sign up to make phone calls. You can sign up to knock doors here in the district. We're knocking more doors than any House campaign in the country. Or so I'm told. We've got an amazing people powered movement here in mid-Michigan. It is going to be a very, very close election. And I just want to make that clear. All of the polling we've seen has been within the margin of error. It's going to come right down to the wire and it could be decided just by a few hundred votes. And by helping out our campaign here in the 7th District, you also help our shared efforts to elect Abdul El-Sayed for United States Senate, another critical race for reasons we all know. And I'm proud to be here. I'm proud to be here. I'm proud to be on the ticket with Abdul. And I'm excited to go win this thing on November 3rd with your help. We're not taking any corporate money. So it's a people powered campaign, both with the small donations and with all of the hours that people are putting in. Thousands of volunteers, both here in mid-Michigan and supporters around the country who are ready for change. So thank you for having me on and let's go get it done. All right. Well, we will be watching. See you soon. Thank you, Griffin. Yeah. We apologize for Griffin, Will. This is the vocal stim in the office. Once you hear it, you can't stop hearing it. Let's meet at the fax. I'm Hamza. And I'm Martin. And we're the hosts of Out of Character. It's a podcast. I swear. I know. Bold. So sometimes we'll talk about. I don't know, the Uber driver we just had. Come and find out. Trust me. What we're saying is we're not afraid to talk about everything under the sun. Anyone. Whoever you're from, whatever you're like, you're welcome. Listen out of character from Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Pods, or wherever you get your podcasts. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions. And at this point in my life, I'm a big fan of the show. I'm a big fan of the show. I'm a big fan of 50s. I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I don't really care. All right. That was a jam-packed Friday show, but of course, it would not be complete without some questions from the AMA audience. If you want to ask a question, of course, you can sign up yourself at BreakingPoints.com to get a free trial and submit written questions for Friday or interact with our weekly live AMA. But first, let's start with an accusation from Patrick Robles. Good morning, Friday crew. Could you help me steelman the argument that BreakingPoints is actually an elaborate CIA PSYOP? All right. Sagar and Emily, their college is an assembly line. For the deep state. Is this the question or is that you? True fact. True fact. This is the AMA question. It's more Georgetown than GW, but fine. Well, Sagar did his master's at Georgetown, so it's pretty bad. But yeah, no, I was a lowly political science creative writing student, so that's a tough one. Now, this user also says the issue is with Ryan. I can't figure out where he fits into all this. But I think it's a good question. I think it's a good question. I think Ryan is the obvious one. Ryan's like the Forrest Gump of politics. He's been in a bar with everyone. I feel like Ryan actually gets that accusation the most, too. If I'm reading comments, I feel like it's because Ryan does so much reporting on the CIA, which inevitably, if you do, people will call you CIA. It's a total lose-lose situation. I guess the question would be, what would the purpose be? It would be to channel the righteous anger at the system away from revolution toward electoralism, which then gets dissipated by the duopoly. That's right. That's the leftist accusation. And what's the Crystal connection here? I guess Crystal's from Northern Virginia. Yeah, what did he say about Crystal? How did he explain that one? Something about recruited for her swim team. I don't know. She is from Virginia, which is, you know, just saying that's where the CIA is. Crystal trains the CIA attack dolphins. That's what I heard. She blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. She didn't even need the tank. She just held her breath and went down there. I just think we're all simply too lazy to also be moonlighting another thing. I think we're doing too many things here. That is the thing. Yeah. And but but there are people in our industry that some of them, you know, raise an eyebrow at where they get their connections. I mean, And just look at the guest list for Joe Rogan. It's quite an interesting who's who of spies, former and current. It's an incredible program over there. All right. So this next one is another accusation for us from Haki. Zoran isn't smiling anymore. His wife isn't posing with him anymore. The Hitler of our time insulted her. And what did he do? Not arrest him. He protected Hakeem from Osei. Have you seen Hakeem's Zionist appointments? Zoran still has Zio Jessica Tish as NYC police commissioner. Why is breaking points complicit in our silence? Silence of what? Wait, hold on. Start at the beginning of the question again. Essentially, there is an accusation from the left that Zoran has capitulated to Zionists. There was protests yesterday where people are very upset over maybe it was on October 7th. People were very upset. And they're saying that because we're not covering that we're complicit in our silence. Hassan said he supported the pressure campaign. We've also we've covered his decision to keep Tish on. Yeah. Full. I've asked him about it in my interview with him. Yeah. They want us to cover the WL WOL protest on October 7th. I don't know. I guess that was that was yesterday. So that's on Sagar and Emily. No, Crystal Sagan. Crystal Sagan. Crystal. Yeah. I mean, you're always going to have like whatever. Anyway. Well, let's open this up. What are your thoughts on this? All these protesters protesting Zoran? I personally, I kind of always eye roll when like the entire topic of conversation on social media is what like 20 protesters said, because you can find 20 crazy people in any large group who are going to be yelling and screaming stuff. And also, like, as New York mayor, you're you're supposed to get screamed at constantly. It's actually shocking that he's gone this far without being screamed at. Yeah. No, yeah, that's that's right. Yeah. I mean, you're always going to have some people protesting. You know, people are upset that he is, you know, made too much, I think, of a rhetorical emphasis around anti-Semitism. And when he rolled out his. This this new spending against like discrimination and hate around the city, he led with the fact that it was all going towards like anti-Semitism when it had a broader scope, when it actually was a broader scope. And so then and then and then they and then, you know, I pointed out it's actually going everywhere, but I understand why people think that he's kind of there are a lot of different communities in New York City and people are under the impression that. Like, that's like that's his primary concern at this point, while like he gets criticized, you know, relentlessly by the pro-Israel crowd in New York. So, you know, but a lot of the things that they're demanding of him aren't really things within his control. Yeah. Yeah. And by the way, like there also has to be priorities and like the people who have much more control over all of this. Like, you know, like the awful Israeli policy in Gaza and American policy there on like a fundamental, important, immediate, urgent level. Are there things the mayor of New York City can do? Yes. But he also has to be the mayor of New York City. And so I don't know. This stuff doesn't bother me because I see it as a part of the ecosystem. Like, it doesn't bother me that people are protesting and it doesn't necessarily bother me that the mayor of New York City would have different priorities at this moment in his mayor morality, because it is all a necessary part of the ecosystem. Like, you're going to have people who apply pressure. You're going to have people who are going to say, you know, it's not going to be a good thing. You're going to have people who are going to say, you know, it's going to be a good thing on a particular issue. And on the other side, he has a job to do, too. And so it's like, yes, just a natural part of how things go. I do like if you're not a single issue person or if you're not, that's not like your particular cause, particular pet cause. Like on the right, we have different causes where you see like there are a lot of anti-abortion people who do this thing that will never there's like nothing is ever good enough and it frustrates a lot of anti-abortion people because they'll get protested no matter what they do. But it's a part of the ecosystem. Like it's some people's most important issue. So let them say what they want to say. And it probably also helps him because it makes him look more kind of moderate. To have, you know, left wing protesters out yelling at him. I have a friend. He's not that radical. I have a friend from home who texted me this week being like, what's up with our mom, Donnie? He seems so normal and hot. It was because I think this is how I'm on Theo Vaughn. So normal and hot. He's good at being normal. It's it's a rare, rare skill among leftists. Yes, I agree with that. I guess the argument would be, yeah, he could probably get rid of Jessica Tisch, but some larger NYPD reforms would probably like consume his entire morality. I've laid out the case for why he why he didn't. It's my understanding. And also just think about the game theory here. If you get rid of Jessica Tisch and as expected, the cops go on some kind of strike against you and crime goes up. People are going to blame you for doing that. And your entire career is cooked. And that has happened. To many mayors who have fought with the police. It happened to de Blasio, right? Didn't they like quiet quit or something? So then if, if, however, you leave Tisch in place and crime goes up, that's Tisch's fault. You get rid of Tisch. If you leave Tisch in place, crime stays the same or goes down, then you can focus on the things you care about, which is affordability. So just from a game theory perspective, like you're, you could, the smart politics there is to keep Tisch in place. Also, people are like, oh, she's tired. It's like, well, okay. Like what does the New York police department really have to do with Israel? Like, not that much. Um, and then. Secondly, people need to have a more material understanding of the relationship between the mayor and police departments. And that's not just New York city, but it's around the world. They are a powerful, independent reactionary force that represents for the most part, the richest, like power centers in the city. They're not, they're not under the thumb of the mayor. Like they are, they are a force. Now you can jockey with them in a political contest, but you can't just dictate. To them, people think you can just dictate to the police. That's not the material world we live in. You're living in an idealistic world. If you think that that's the case. And if you operate from a place of idealism and reality blows up in your face, then the things that you ran on, you can't actually execute on. This next one comes from AJ Mira and they say, referring to Emily here, MJ is not a conservative. She is a. Catholic socialist parentheses, which I can get behind change my mind. Okay. So she's wrong on both counts. My dad's got like, I've never been Catholic. My dad's family's not Catholic, but, uh, nor am I a socialist. Um, but I don't really see much getting that from, well, because like, for example, we just had will on and feds are on, on, we've had a lot of democratic socialists on, like I'm very anti unfettered capitalism. Um, I think, you know, markets are a tool for the. Good of the country, the good of the community, the good of the family. Um, and that means they're not a good in and of themselves. Like a, a market is not a virtue in and of itself, but it's a tool for the, uh, for, for the good of the country, the family and the community. Anyway, um, all this to say, I'm very like with you guys on antitrust stuff. Uh, I think there's like way too much financialization. I think there's way too much, uh, concentration monopolization. I, I think most conservatives are way too supportive of unfettered capitalism. Because if you're conservative, you're, you should be skeptical of concentrated power. Whether it's in the government or in the business community. And anyway, all that is to say, like, I don't see too much point in like grilling people like will Lawrence, uh, or, you know, a newly running Zora Mamdani on like the evils of the Soviet union, which I think a lot of people would want me to do because there, I don't have a lot of arguments with them on the fundamental underlying question. Of whether or not the economy is broken, whether or not we're overly financialized, whether or not power is too concentrated. Like that's what we actually, that's part of why Sagar and I agree with you guys on a lot of these like fundamental questions right now. Our diet, our, our prescriptions are different, but our diagnoses are similar. Hmm. Uh, so take that Catholic socialism. Uh, all right. This last one. Yeah. All that matters is a diagnosis. Like what you want to do is kind of immaterial. Especially for journalists. Like I'm not purporting to be like a policy wizard. That's going to come in and have all of the solutions. But like when you're asking questions of candidates, like if we agree on the diagnosis, then anyway, all that is also, I'm like a non-denominational. I'm like as far from a Catholic as you could possibly be. Uh, okay. And finally, this is from Nicholas Brannon. Hi for Sagar and Griffin. Why do you think Sagar would hate diggers with Tom Cruise? I feel like this movie is just anti-oil, which Sagar would argue that in evaluation. value-neutral world, nuclear would come out top also the theme about how we care caricature politicians so we can accept the horrible choices they caused have any of y'all seen diggers yet not yet i want to see it though uh i i recommend seeing it i i'm saying that i am joining the war on diggers on the side of diggers i think it is a movie that is uh a little exhausting uh i'll say that a little bizarre very meta um but i haven't stopped thinking about it and it is two hours of tom cruise uh it without spoiling anything i do think it is the filmmaker is critiquing other people that make movies about climate change sort of hollywood elites that make movies about climate change and then pat themselves on the back um for that and there's a sort of critique of if any of that is moving the needle at all while the oligarchs have already destroyed the world around us and we're just there making art about it i disagree with that take and i think that art isn't an important tip of the spear and changing people's minds so i did find the movie to be quite nihilistic and elitist on its in its own self uh sort of elitist an elitist critique of elites um because i don't i do believe that art is more valuable uh than i think the movie is implying but it's two hours it's it's it's a gorgeous film it's quite exhausting it's something uh that's my recommendation that was a hell of a recommendation yeah and that will do it for us this friday october 9th midterms are coming up we're gearing up for quite a very big month of all sorts of october surprises of course breakingpoints.com if you want to see it all ad free in addition to engaging with our amas and other extra stuff we do along the way anything else that we want to plug on our way out folks no sir all right that'll do it for us and we'll see you on monday bye the hulu original series phony is coming to hulu and hulu on disney plus october 20th my name is sonny cook ever since the accident my mom looks different you think your mom has been swapped out with a different woman i know something okay something's wrong i don't know what's going on with you but i know that i'm your mother if that's not your mom or do you think she is i don't know but i need to find her watch the hulu original series phony on october 20th streaming on hulu and hulu on disney plus for bundle subscribers terms apply until now the data your ai depends on has been trapped behind ever increasing cloud fees wasabi created hot cloud storage and is redefining cloud storage for the ai era delivering simple predictable cloud storage for ai analytics media and more your data is free to move fast to access and ready when your ai needs it hidden fees add up fast as ai workloads grow wasabi's flat pricing eliminates all of it one rate no surprises learn more and try now for free at wasabi.com wasabi the ai storage cloud proud partner of the iheart podcast network some people use chat gpt to answer questions others use it to get real work done with chat gpt work you bring the goal plus real inputs like briefs notes files feedback data and project plans it can help turn them into an analysis tracker deck outline prototype or workflow you can review and keep shaping you stay in control giving direction and choosing the final output put chat gpt to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat gpt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans this is an iheart podcast guaranteed human