10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP

This is an I Heart podcast, guaranteed human, didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast. Here's what you missed. There should not be a single law enforcement agency that does not have body cameras. It's real. Black farmers have been under attack. This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything. It's raw. And I'm sitting here going, they are playing y'all for fools. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network. Download Roland Martin unfiltered on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast. Oh, wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, ready or not, 2024 is here and we here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday we have an amazing show for everybody today. Good to see you Ryan. People live for the pound where are we going to go this way? I'm going to put both my fists. I hope you guys like my new remote digs, but we do have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show. Wow. It's an easier remote because I can see this beautiful little bar that we have down there. We're going to start off with the situation with Iran Ryan. We believe Galibov might be a free month trial subscribe because he is regurgitating Ryan Grimm exactly and we're talking explicitly about the 10 year bond situation. We're going to give everybody an update as well on these terror attacks, both the UK who is now claiming that there are strong indications that Iran is tied to the so-called explosives attack, even though no explosives were found against that airbase in addition to some new details that we're learning about that alleged hijacking, which potential, you know, a potential hijack situation, suicide attack, very strange kind of situation happen on that fly-dubite fright from Israel to Dubai. We're also going to talk about the midterms. There's some new leaked data, or sorry, leaked audio from Ken Paxton in which he admits that the GOP midterm convention in Texas actually hurt his numbers. That's with some additional reporting that's coming out about Hispanics in South Texas, flipping against the Republican Party. Rokana is actually going to stop by he's going to join us and talk a little bit about AI. He has a new bill that he has released, which is banning superintelligence. Bill Gates, in addition, has joined the Ezra Klein podcast, some interesting stuff there from Bill. I don't fully trust everything the guy has to say, but Ryan and I are going to break that down. And then Christopher Leonard, who is one of my favorite authors, has a new Atlantic story about the Thad delusion. Chris is just one of the best people whenever it comes to anti-monopoly, corruption. He's written phenomenal books. Ryan, I think you guys are friends and thank you for booking him in. I'm really excited to talk to him about that. Yeah, it's a really essential story because he's looking at the complete collapse of our missile defense system while we're still pretending like we're going to continue operating in the Middle East as if that wasn't a physical constraint on our ability to do so. That's right. All right, Ryan, take us away. Pitch master. Well, we actually do have a very significant new pitch now because go to BraggingPoints.com you sign up for the one month free trial. According to new reporting, the new AI agents that are developing are making it much easier for people to cancel their subscription apparently. It's driving something like it has the potential to drive something like a 50% collapse in subscription revenue because when people are reminded by an agent, hey, are you still, you still want to keep paying for this BraggingPoints.com subscription? It was supposed to be a month free now, you've been here for like two years. People are apparently like 50% more likely to be like, you know what, actually times are tight. I bought a barrel of oil, oil price crashed. I can't afford it anymore. Our entire business model relies on people forgetting that they're paying for this. So what we need to do is basically double the number of people who are subscribing to this show so that we can afford to lose the people who are going to be reminded that they no longer want to watch it. Plus, also, we got to get some sympathy subs here for soccer. I mean, no, no, no, I've given up. Ryan, it's all yours, though. By the way, people did sign up for my Baklava pitch. I don't know if you know about this. I said that 50 people signed up on our Tuesday show. I would buy Baklava for our entire staff because I mistakenly said Baklava instead of Balaklava. And so I am now on the hook Baklava and Apple T for the entire crew. I will have it for all of you whenever you come into the studio. So thank you to everybody going to cost me a fortune. But it is what it is. There's actually a Michelin Star Turkish restaurant very near our studio. And so that's what I will be getting for our entire crew and our staff and enough people will forget to cancel that you'll be able to afford the Baklava. I will be able to afford the Baklava. That's exactly correct. Okay, let's go ahead and start. With this Iran situation, let's put it up here on the screen. I'm going to set it up. Ryan, I'm going to let you explain why exactly this is so significant. So the yield on the 10-year treasury has now served to a 24-year high, "relentless selling pressure has driven the yield on the 10-year US treasury note to a 24-year high, a new marker that provides further evidence that the economy has entered a new chapter of higher borrowing costs." That is a key benchmark for interest rates on all types of debt. The big yield on the 10-year note has climbed to 5.3% in recent trading. Pushing past is 2007, intraday peak of 5.3% in May of 2002. So in the wake of the.com boom, Ryan, can you put this in context for us? Because I know you've been following the Iranians' communications on bonds and yields. And you're putting it together really with Golobov's intended strategy. Yeah, and whenever you start seeing time horizons that blow past the great financial crisis, like in other words, none of this was as bad as during that period in time because now you have to go back to 2002. This is a real danger zone because when you see this velocity of movement, that is the real concern because I've seen people say, "Oh, well, the moving average over the last 50 years is more like 6%, so that's not even that big of a deal." That's like, yeah, bro, because you're factoring in like 20% plus percent at some points in the 1980s and like surging interest rates in the late 1970s. What we're talking about is that the entire system that we have developed over the last quarter century has relied on stable low interest rates. And when you start moving with this amount of speed, it's going to start breaking things. What things it breaks, we don't exactly know. And it was very funny yesterday on the show. We talked about how this kind of affirmed one of the finance, bro posts that Muhammad Gallebeth had made several months ago, a couple hours later, he put out an even crazier one, crazier in the sense of, "Whoa, it kind of punches you in the face." But it's actually kind of useful to walk through it. So let's put up a two. This is the post that Gallebeth put up yesterday. And you look at it and you're like, "Oh my God, what are we doing here?" But if you break it down, it actually is fairly straightforward. And so his formula here, Omega T, so basically means this is the stress on the House. And the House is a reference to when Scott Besson said, "I'm the House now." He's a big trader. He used to trade against the House. He's saying, "I'm the House. I can basically set the terms." And so I'm going to beat all of the traders. Because he said that, he is getting absolutely smashed by everybody who's trading against the House. Anyway, so what Gallebeth is saying here. So the ability of Iran to put stress on the House, he's arguing, "It's weight over capacity. Weight is basically the debt weight, like how much debt the United States is carrying over its capacity to hold that debt, plus Iran levers." Another was what plus what Iran is able to do. What he's saying here, because there's a division there, if the debt goes up, and our capacity to pay it goes down, it has kind of an exponential amplified effect on us. So he's saying our debt weight, so the next formula here, our debt weight is going up because we're running into a maturity wall. We have a whole bunch of maturity wall means we've got all these two-year treasury bonds and others that are coming due, that we're going to have to refinance at much higher rates. So that's going up, the pile of debt, that just means our debt is gradually growing as well. Yolds are going up. Yield velocity is growing up. That's all obvious. Now the capacity of the U.S. government to respond to it, he's saying, is going way down. Because there's less room for the Federal Reserve to mess around. Fed parking lot is talking about the way that the kind of repo market has collapsed. It used to be a lot of money market stuff. I mean, it used to be a lot of treasury bonds, there's not as much treasuries in there. There's no growth, he's saying. Our economy is kind of slumping along, not exactly true, we're still growing a little bit, but not keeping up with inflation. Foreign buyers are way down. We've talked about that on the program, the Japanese, across the board, and then dealer capacity that's basically big banks. Big banks don't have the capacity to buy treasuries like they did anymore because they are struggling as well because As yields go up the value of the treasuries that they hold goes down and so they have then less You know basically capital that they can then dispense and then use So his his overall Formula at the bottom there Iran Iran levers are going up energy prices are going up bonds are going up And federal and federal interest rates are going up and his his final formula at the bottom he's saying that you're going to see The stress on the house rise from now until November election day and then rise through 2027 What's important about this is that he has his eye on the prize Which is what he's calling stress on the house, which is stress on you stress on the American stress on the American public Whereas the US is focused on tactical things. So he's in other words Iran is focused on everything omega And we are looking at how many barrels of oil or how many tankers did we get through the straight of four moves today uh Disconnecting that from well, what's the price of oil and more importantly What is the price of oil doing to the price of diesel and what is the price of diesel doing to inflation that is driving up interest rates like we are so many layers away From fighting about what matters. It's almost comical like it great good for us that we're getting more oil through the straight of four moves like that's an impressive Operational feet on the part of the US Navy and we should acknowledge that But if Iran is still able to keep oil prices over a hundred diesel prices sky high and interest rates threatening a global financial crisis then What we're able to accomplish is impressive and you know a for effort and you know showed up you get a trophy But like trying to win and there's no evidence that we're winning here is what golly boffice saying That was a Ryan gpt analysis much better and more full than whenever I asked Claude please translate this into plain English Uh, but genuinely very helpful. Let's put a three up there on the screen There's been a lot of talk from the United States about how much control it has of the straight of four moves yesterday trade wins Which is a freight trade journal said that several ships were attacked in the street of four moves as Iran had launched fresh strikes three tankers Were impacted by quote unknown projectiles. So that really does kind of you know it really crystallizes I think Ryan's entire point, which is look we are spending Inordinate amounts of money to get hormones traffic to around pre-war levels It is vulnerable at all times to people with surface to air missiles with you know who you know see mines IRGC they could keep that up for years at the same time it requires as we remember Marines who are boarding armed merchants you know Merchantships that are frequently being able to be targeted by cruise missiles Blackhawk helicopters hovering as the cover of night as a convoy makes its way through I mean this is you know Sal from what's going on with shipping contextualize it effectively is like a light world war two-esque strategy From the Atlantic convoy and that really hit home for me because that was at a time of existential crisis For the United Kingdom and for our millions of troops that were stationed in the UK and eventually who you know We're landed on the European continent. This is not that right like this is just to reopen this waterway And there's no end strategic end in sight where Iran just goes okay We're done like the Nazis did whenever Berlin fell right so let's put a four up here on the screen to show How they're still grappling with all of the immediate crises this exactly gets to Ryan's point around diesel Where by the way, you know, we just hit a new fresh all-time high just yesterday Whitehouse is holding crunch talks on diesel export ban as the midterms near so even though Trump has waffled on diesel export bands They say eight to present the president with options including curbs on international devils sales So it might be kind of a light diesel ban Uh as in like curbs or quotas as opposed to an all-out ban Evaluating all options on the table Everything is geared towards lower domestic fuel prices and no decision has yet been made Remember that even the Republican energy secretary Chris Wright basically said guys This would be an incredibly stupid idea and very counterproductive Something our friend Rory has been making the point of and by the way to his point. Let's go to the next part Just yesterday US diesel prices are now at a fresh all-time high above 224 dollars a barrel and it has something to do with the end of the month when contracts expire There's like a cycling element that happens for everything a diesel Nationally today is about two uh couple like ten cents almost off of the real all-time retail high of 651 but you will soon find that barrel price price reflected in what you are paying at the pump And I just think you know generally I saw the White House kind of celebrating or at least some Republican Supporters of the war celebrating the fact that you had a ten-cent reduction. I'm like, okay Well, it's more than double the entire price So, you know, we're gonna see you see a few more ten-cent increments Ryan before we start declaring victory over any of this and Until you know eventually I was it was interesting Ryan We weren't able to get it into her show But did you see yesterday was the first time in probably modern US history in the lifetime of many of our viewers That there is not an American force at least acknowledged on the ground in Afghanistan or in Iraq and that should have been something for Celebration except for the fact that we are currently at war with the rocks neighbor Iran and That there are tens of thousands of troops that remain in the region actively engaged in combat for another Stupid Middle Eastern war so it caused that should have been for celebration as instead just highlighted the idiocy of our Establishment and the timing is kind of ironic because you know the the troops are there to protect oil supplies effectively and took guard Right the house of sawd and Right after Iraqi militias apparently it was them who blew up Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline One of the who these apparently came from The Iraqi side we leave like not that we like it's like well when we were there. We weren't able to stop it anyway So I guess guess we might might as well move out. I kind of think there's a decent chance of curious for your take that Trump actually doesn't act this at some point. It's October 1st today You know, we're just under a month away mail-in ballots are outs in some places. They're going out across the country You know fairly soon the elections basically coming upon us and All the analysis is that you would get in most parts of the country a Tick down in diesel prices in the immediate few weeks after the announcement and then all hell breaks loose You know right after that and Trump is, you know These are very very much. I live to fight another day kind of person. So if he can get a two-week kind of reprieve Not not total reprieve, but at least you know some breathing room And his advisors tell him yeah, but then you know right after that it's gonna cause enormous problems. He's like well After that what like who Trump does not care about down the road Whether you believe Tucker or not in the He's like well, I'm gonna die anyway. That's kind of his Entire attitude towards life like don't tell me about what's gonna happen Friday. Just I'm fighting on Thursday Didn't catch the latest roll in the Martin unfiltered podcast here's what you missed and the argument is Do you want to win if you don't win? You have no power. It's real those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests And they complained about the very thing to receive it's wrong I knew that the issue of transgender athletes Was not going well with a lot of black men roll and Martin unfiltered. I went off. I said this is exactly what I'm talking about Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bag Catch roll and martens daily commentary on the black information network 12 seats Those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 23 You better be hitting the ground going hard in the south now and download roll and martens unfiltered on the iHot Radio app apple podcast Wherever you get your podcasts The other thing is what do we know about this current administration? Trump is obsessed with what rich people say And every rich person in America who's involved in the oil business is like please don't do this You will irrepably damage our business and you also look I mean, I don't think it cares entirely what foreign leaders say, but You know the Japanese and the South Koreans and all of these other countries are putting on a full court press behind the scenes from what I understand Basically saying sir do not do this you will destroy our modern economy and you will basically have to send us out on the black market or to have to Try and buy diesel from Russia or from any of these other countries if you're gonna do this to us it will severely damage our relationships. Not to mention Europe, I believe it's like 41% or something I just saw a number in which they're heavily reliant on imports. Europe right now. So the United States is the diesel refiner of last resort because Russia was taken offline and Ukraine has even more taken their diesel exports offline. There's a few other markets, but right now, it's a very easy place to do business with the petrodollar, with existing business relationships. And as I've always said here, we're going to talk about Texas. One of the reasons why I don't think that the economy is as much of a drag is that there is a significant part of the state. I'm from there, who are actually making more money than they ever have in their entire life. They're making generational wealth in the city of Houston. And at the port of Houston, these guys, I mean, they will retire in the next couple of years, only because of what's happened here with the Iran War. I mean, you know, when you are a ship freight and you can charge oil freighter, you're charging a million dollars a day, you can pay off your entire ship according to sal in a few runs and you're in the black for the rest of your life. When you previously had thought, this is like a 30 year fixed rate type mortgage situation. So that is a fundamental, you know, difference, I think just regionally in our economy. But it does highlight, you know, the squeezing of what's happening. Put a six on the screen because this shows what's happened in the European markets where Russia just yesterday extended the diesel export ban until the end of October. There's a couple of ways that you could read this. Number one, Russia's obviously pissed at Trump. Russia, they don't mind high diesel prices right now as much as it's also hurting their economy and the Ukrainian drone attacks, which continued as of yesterday. But overall, this is putting tremendous pressure on the diesel market. The other is that the Ukrainians have just done so much damage they may not be able to export period. And already, we're actually seeing some of the consequences of this in our own economy. Let's put A5B guys, I sent this this morning about how American truckers, we actually have 16 trucking companies now so far, which have filed for bankruptcy as diesel costs soar. And everybody is going to start seeing this. You will see diesel surcharges, if you, you know, I don't know, like if lawn companies, I heard a story of being a lawn mowers, people were hiring out for yard service, just being like, oh, wow, our bill went up. And the companies like, yeah, man, like we have diesel costs, you know, like we have trucks and things that we have to do. And this will obviously show up in overall inflation. And so tying it back to that Galbauf tweet where he put out his complicated formula, the general TLDR was, is he's like, look, the yields are going up. And according to his formula, and also according to a lot of the current analysis, is that the bond market is not going to recover just because oil comes down. Now that we kind of are in this runaway government spending cycle, in addition to the loss of US prestige, in addition to the massive boom in artificial intelligence spending, you have created this kind of runaway bond problem where even the diesel industry I was just reading yesterday, they told the White House, they're like, this entire thing could end literally today. And for a full year, diesel will not return to where it was, just because of the damage that's now been done to the market. And that's without China. So if China reenters, we're going even more sky high, then $224 barrel. - And quick side question, why is, why are Democrats doing so well in Texas, despite the fact that parts of it are absolutely booming? - Well, first of all, candidate quality, great question. We'll talk about this in our midterm block. But I mean, something that we have highlighted here on the show is you could make an argument polling wise that the state of Iowa is more in play than the state of Texas. And I think that's true. - What's happening in, I think that diesel is the story where people in Texas, there's a lot of money down there, there's AI CapEx spend boom. I mean, there's a lot of rich people that are down in Texas. Whereas in Iowa, you have a farming rely on economy and you've been doubly screwed by tariffs and you're high diesel prices. You don't produce diesel in Iowa. You are a consumer largely of diesel. And so that kind of highlights, like that's why I think there will be some a limited amount of regional disparity. And it's kind of like the bell curve where you follow on that really matters. And I feel like Iowa is on the tail end of a state most to be negatively affected by two concrete policies of choice by the Trump administration. Last thing, A7, Ryan, I think you wanted to hit this where I mean, this is just kind of like weird behavior from the United States. Apparently Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the country after the United Nations. Do you know anything about this? Very odd. - Yeah, cause I can tell you for a fact that they were planning on staying for a, I don't know how long, but well into this week because I was, you know, in talks with interviewing Aragchi while he was in New York. And there was no plan that he was, you know, leaving on Monday. And so, yeah, according to this reporting, which is, which I understand to be true, after they hit some impasse in negotiations, Rubio was like, just, all right, everybody out, like just go. And this was after they had already denied visas last minute to a whole bunch of kind of high level, not just support staff, but very high level members of the Iranian delegation. And I know that they were scrambling because like the people that had all of different contact lists and everything, they were blocked from coming. So the entire delegation was kind of a mess, you know, and then they put on all these bizarre restrictions about what they're allowed to do while they're here. Just a lot of kind of petty humiliation, which the US had kind of, you know, at least in spirit committed not to do when the US agreed to host the United Nations to say like, this is not your pet that you're allowed to use for your own purposes. It was supposed to be, this is for the entire world. And we're going to base it in New York, but you're gonna allow people to come there who you're in a cold war with, you're in a hot war with, and you're gonna be cool about it. And we're not being very cool about it. - Yeah, Ryan, I'm trying to do a history. When is the last time that the US was at war with a sovereign nation recognized by the United Nations where the UN, where basically the counterparty lasted long enough to be able to have a diplomatic presence in the United States. I just asked Claude, apparently North Vietnam was never in the UN. Maybe Libya, you know, I could maybe have to go back and check like maybe Gaddafi had somebody at the UN. - Yeah, he probably must have that. - Yeah, right, exactly. - It certainly must have had somebody at the UN. - Iraq, right, Iraq, right. But then that collapsed in three weeks. So I'm like, you know, this kind of is an unprecedented situation. It's a, by the way, actually was as you know, Ryan, a lot of people warned about this whenever they put the United Nations in New York. They're like, why would we put it here? You know, what if we have problems with the United States? So maybe they were right. And especially when you're not a nuclear power like the Soviet Union. Okay, let's get to terror. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast? - Here's what you missed. - And the argument is, do you want to win? If you don't win, you have no power. - It's real. - Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests. And they complained about the very thing they were seeing. - It's raw. - I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. - Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off. I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same vein. - Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the black information network. - 12 seats. Those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 2030. You better be hitting the ground, going to heart in the south now. - And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHotRadio app Apple Podcast. - Oh, wherever you get your podcasts. - Turning now to two of these alleged terror incidents. We wanted to give everybody an update on that Israeli hijack situation. Let's put this video up on the screen. Multiple video released from many of the passengers who are on this fly Dubai flight where the details officially that have come out describe two pilots in the cockpit. The co-pilot allegedly tried to put the plane into a dive while stabbing the main pilot. According to the Israeli officials, the pilot who was stabbed was able to fight off his co-pilot and actually open the cockpit door, which enabled both two reserve pilots who were on the plane to come in and safely land it in addition to some of the passengers to actually secure the co-pilot who had been trying to crash the plane. Apparently they did it with a wired headphone. So a lot of the wired headphone community is speaking up on that one. The one of the survivors of that attack met with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday, immediately after returning to Israel guys, they could put that video on the screen. He described it saying, quote, "I pulled the yoke up and I stopped the plane's dive. It's lucky I had from aviation experience, from the May day air crash, series, which is I believe on YouTube or in some video format. And so, Ryan, I know you and Emily covered a lot of this yesterday. Of course, you also have good sources and others. I don't blame people. There's a lot of skepticism around this. I don't, I mean, I certainly do as well whenever it comes to at least, you know, obviously any precipitating attack, which could cause a major international incident. I don't just say that because it's Israel. We're literally about to talk about this with Iran and the UK as well. I'm curious where your head is at and any reporting or any other details that you think are relevant. What's so interesting is that if you I haven't seen a poll of the American public. The sense that I guess so many people are expressing so much skepticism. Obviously, there was a knife fight or at least some kind of fight with sharp objects that led to, you know, an enormous set of injuries to the other pilot. Clearly, the plane plummeted. So, you know, all of these things happen, but people are very much questioning the timing of this. How did this come about? We've kind of entered this period where whatever news event comes about, you're going to get a huge number of people who are like, minimum waiting to see, waiting to hear more information about this before jumping to before jumping to any conclusions on it. I don't know, what are you hearing? Well, you know, I haven't heard anything specific. Obviously, the Mayday crash one was highlighted to me by a lot of people. I read it just because I mean, it is, you know, plausible. Of course, it to happen, as you said, the passenger is literally covered in blood and immediately met with Netanyahu. Kind of where I fall on this is that I do think all of the details described did happen just in terms of the way that it's come out. And I think that Netanyahu is exploiting it for domestic political purposes because he is the head in an or because he's going into a knife fight election. And this is kind of, you know, the whole reason and pitch that he's making to these really people. So it's a lot like October 7th where, you know, you have a horrific situation, which then, you know, kind of morphs and turns into something for bigger domestic political purposes. For example, a BB had actually previously even said in his campaign speech. We can put the next one up here on the screen. We have indications that ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us. So look, I mean, these people, again, are trying to port the portrait as a false flag and all of that. And I am, I remain deeply skeptical of many international terror incidents whenever they're immediately described just because you and I have done this for long enough where we know that the details all dramatically change in a matter of 24 to 48 hours. But generally where I land is, I do think, you know, mostly what's described has happened just. There were children on board, you know, they're screaming, obviously, it's a horrific situation. There's damage to the plane, the landing in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Saudi who also, I mean, I don't think you have a ton of incentive to comply all basically confirming many of the details. But largely, I think, of course, you know, in many ways, like United States politicians, any politicians, a security incident like this can be a rallying cry. And of course, hijacking airplanes is something that kind of harkens back to a long period of Israeli history, both in terms of LL flights and other incidents that have happened many times over the last 50 or 60 years, in particular, why it's actually hitting home quite hard in Israel. But anyway, wanted to make sure that we showed everybody all of that. Let's also then get to this UK Fairford situation. We're frankly, I think there's a hell of a lot more questions as of right now, with the Prime Minister Andy Burnham now saying that they have strong indications that Iran was connected to this plot. Let's take a listen. Strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF Fairford. But of course, it remains an ongoing, complex and serious police investigation. And of course, we are working closely with our colleagues in the United States of America. So it's ongoing. I have held a cobra meeting as I've been here at the conference in Liverpool. We are on top of it in every possible way imaginable. The police in Gloucestershire, our counterterrorism police have done an outstanding job. I thank them for that. We will say more in due course, but we can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part. All right. So strong indications, and yet again, here are the details you're like, hold on a second. Let's put the next one up here on the screen. Apparently, one of the guys in this so-called plot actually called 999, which is their emergency line, before the arrests were made at the base. Now, here's the problem, Ryan, is that the current narrative from a lot of the press is that that's why these suspects were apprehended. But you and I know that actually what happened is that this farming woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night, and that she's the one who called the police. And so what they're trying to spin it as is that this guy had called the police. He got cold feet and had called them and alerted them. And maybe they were watching, but it kind of obfuscates the exact details through which the arrest went down in the first place by this woman driving down the road in midnight who saw these sketchy vans. We also know for a fact that there have been no explosives found that it's all just been, you know, petrol as they call it. We don't know if it was diesel or whether it was gasoline, which would validate, you know, a lot of the speculation in the UK that actually was just a bunch of general thugs trying to steal diesel while the diesel price is so high. So look, the UK Prime Minister saying this obviously is a big deal. But a lot of the details still remain very strange. Yeah. And if you listen to Burnham and you read all the news reports in Europe about it, they keep saying, now we have suspicions that Iran and Marco Rubio said the farm power is being involved with it, quote it, or what happened at the, it's like, what, what happened? Like, what's the it here? The it three got five lads and like three vans were outside this base, and this lady called the cops on them, they got arrested, they found that they had petrol in their vans, and then nothing else. Like, so what's the it that Iran was like, take a bunch of petrol and pour it on the chain link fence outside the base and then light it up. Like, like, I, you've looked into this more than I have, I think, what is the it that Iran is allegedly supposed to have been involved with here? Like if there's no supporters, there's nothing that there, there's nothing that ties into any break in effort. Like, what's the it? Let's put the next one up there, guys, which really highlights Ryan's questions here. So the mystery over the base as police find petrol, but no exclusive, mired in confusion, a quantity of petrol was found in the vehicles acting suspiciously in a major incident. And again, you know, you have this guy who apparently called the police on himself, or at least again, that's with the Wall Street Journal and some of the other Western media are reporting, but it doesn't comport with the fact that the whole thing was busted because this woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night. By the way, Iran has responded, be eight, we can put their statement up here on the screen. They say, "Pyat, this is from their foreign minister, Arachi." Prime Minister Burnham says the UK government can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part in the fair for an incident. I can confirm Iran's belief that releasing supposed terrorist suspects, working for foreign states really says it all, you are barking up the wrong tree. So a denial, or I guess a denial in part, that this wasn't any way an Iranian sort of alleged attack. I don't know. I mean, you can't really trust either of the figures that were involved here. I will say, you know, there's been a lot of skepticism, and I remain firmly in it, but I do want to give credit to Treetoparse, who immediately in the aftermath did say, he's like, "Look, the IRGC did say that many of these foreign bases, which give, you know, basing rights or, you know, or allow the United States to take off from there to bomb Iran, are now vulnerable to attack." In the immediate aftermath, I immediately said, "I didn't think it would make a lot of sense. I thought it would be absolutely shocking, because to attack an air base in the middle of the UK would almost certainly bring the UK more into the war, which is not in Iran's direct interest, and it would also rally around the flag, and I can only guess if the Iran war is triple digit, whatever, unpopular in the United States, I can only imagine what it is in the UK, especially with the labor government that barely wants to be involved in this in the first place, and this would only give them the security reason to do so. So that's just my general thinking, Ryan." Right, and they bailed these five men out, and we don't know yet what the guy told the police. There's some extraordinary gaps in what they're telling the public, because that's rather essential, like what did he say when he calls? And your point is a good one. Iran is very deliberately and conspicuously not attacked Israel because they like the fact that Israel is currently not attacking them. They can just go one-on-one with the US here. Launching a terror attack inside the UK, like with gasoline or diesel or whatever, it's not going to have any effect, it's not actually going to shut the base down. A couple of guys with bands, all it's going to do is heighten the UK's willingness to participate in the war against Iran. So yeah, it doesn't make sense, who knows, but so far, the quote-unquote "major incident" that keeps getting described has not actually been described, like what we're talking about here. Totally agree. All right, let's get to midterms. You don't win, you have no power. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests, and they complained about the very thing they were seeing. It's raw. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off, I said, "This is exactly what I'm talking about." Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bank. 12 seats, those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 2030, you better be hitting the ground, going hard in the south now. And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHotRadio app Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcasts. Turning now to the midterms, some crazy leaked audio from Ken Pax in the Senate candidate in Texas, where he says that Trump's midterm convention in Texas actually dragged his numbers down. Let's take a listen. But do you feel like you're a little bit of a drag? So to be honest with you, the numbers in Texas, when we did that convention, we dropped our numbers. Everybody said we got. Right now. Yeah. Not good. We're sort of coming to you to turn that part of it off. It's a little muffled with there. To be honest with you, when we did that with the midterm convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Yeah. Not good. As Ken says, in the most eloquent language that he possibly can, as usual, that we can expect from him. Trump was even asked about this in the Oval Office. Let's take a listen. President, there is a report that Ken Pax spend was complaining about your midterm convention and he felt like it hurt him. What's your reaction to that? Well, I haven't heard that, but I can tell you that the convention was amazing. As you probably know, we had 107 million views. Think of it, we had over 100 million views, 80, 107, the NFL had 25 million views. So we had four times what the NFL did and you know, it's possible that could be true. I don't know if it's possible, but other people will help greatly. This was a national convention, midterm convention, never been done before and we went directly against the NFL was just the timing worked out that way and we had 107 million versus 25 million views, which was a big story in the entertainment world and sports world. What have been a big story, if literally any of it was true? It appears that the real number Ryan is roughly three million and I actually even called that at the time. I'm like, you guys are really going head to head against the NFL opening weekend. I'm like, I don't know. Not really in the advisory category, if you actually want to get anybody to watch it. My guess is they probably went on Twitter and counted all of those Twitter views and Tiktok and all of that together, which I'm sure the NFL could probably do that too and that will put that around a billion. Yeah, Ryan, crazy stuff, man, you know, generally, I mean, have you done, I know you've looked a little bit into the Texas race with Paxon and with Tallariko. What does Tallariko world generally feel right now going into the last stretch of the election? That everything is coming together in all of the ways that they needed to come together. This was always going to be, and still is, a huge uphill climb, Texas is just so structurally difficult for Democrats to win in, but they needed Paxon to win first off. They needed Tallariko to win, so they got the matchup that they wanted. Even then, if Trump had stuck with the MOU and we were looking at mortgage rates at 6%, and gas prices at $3 and diesel a little bit more affordable and the oil flowing through the straight of our moves without the necessity of, you know, seal team 6, you know, dragging every tanker through, then he probably gets close, but not all the way there. But with this complete collapse, it's adding to all of the rest of the anger at him, we can put up this next element here, the New York Times, C4, New York Times, sent people down to the border, and you know, got some of these classic interviews that people just, just love of, you know, talking to a woman who casts her first ballot ever in 2024 or for Donald Trump, but two years later, after her brother was deported, she feels angry and betrayed. Also then talks to a guy who runs a construction company who can't find workers, a pastor who led, you know, his congregation to the polls for Republicans, who is now just trying to get them to even continue participating in politics because they're so, so live it about the things that that Trump did, you know, the, you know, a lot of these voters along the West Texas border thought that the border was out of control. They agreed with Trump on that, they're not necessarily hostile to the whole, build the wall, argument that he was making. They did not think that that also meant that he was going to, you know, send ice throughout all of the communities and, and kind of so the amount of terror, and when it comes to the, you know, construction companies, you, they, you know, I don't know what, I don't know how they thought this was going to go for them, but however they thought it was going to go, it went differently, and they, you know, Trump shocked the world by winning a majority of Hispanic voters along the border. It reshaped his entire coalition. It changed the game when it came to the demographic destiny of the Democrats and, and what Republicans believed was possible, you know, opened up this possibility of, you know, permanent majority coalition around kind of law and order. And in a year and a half, he, you know, squandered the entire thing. And if he loses, you know, Hispanic voters along the border by 30 points, then Taloriko is in play. You know, you're the, you're the local correspondent down there. What's your sense? Well, you know, I haven't been, I actually haven't been down to South Texas in quite some time, but it is a fascinating place. I will say in this particular case, you know, to the extent, let's say I'm angry with Trump or a lot of people around Trump, it's for not, if you're doing things that, you know, they said that they weren't going to do. I do find it really difficult to square voting for Donald Trump. When your brother is an illegal, illegal alien present in the nation and then to be upset whenever said person gets deported, I will, look, I'll give her her due. She says, quote, I knew he was going to start deporting people. He was going to go after bad criminals, true hardcore camellia's rapists and killers. She thought of her six children, but when her brother was taken into immigration detention after a scheduled check and she felt like it was a punch in the gut, I didn't think it would target people who were here. I mean, I'm sorry, like that's just, and she even says I saw the sign mass deportation and I didn't believe that it would apply. I mean, in this particular case, man, like you got to learn how to read. I mean, I don't think that it was all that difficult to understand what the sign said or exactly what was explicitly laid out in the speeches and others. You could dog me all you want and I think that's fair in some cases, but like in this particular case, like, you know, same with the construction people who are like, oh, well, it's going to be harder for me to hire illegal aliens to work for my construction company. I'm like, that was one of the explicit goals of the deportation and administration strategy in order to force you to raise prices or raise wages and actually hire people who are here present in the country legally. So all of that is said, I guess it just confirms my theory that the median voter, like basically here's whatever they want to hear, you know, in terms of how it will affect them because she does say, like you said, that they were worried about this string of people who were coming across the border and they were upset about that. But what they also say really is beyond that it's the economic situation. Quote, the economic struggle seemed to have only gotten worse, shaped by the same forces at play and the rest of the economy, construction has slowed, small business owners of the lost customers and restaurants and construction sites, search lobbies, optimism about the second Trump administration. has curdled into a deep sense of abandonment, not all of it, again, related to ice, a lot of it still related to diesel and to gas, which while I said previously in our show that gas prices were not as high in Texas, I think they're barely around $4 a gallon compared to the rest of the nation around $4.40 or $4.50, $4 a gallon is still very, very high. And so, look, I mean, I think you just have a community of people who have swung so wildly in the last 10 years that they are always up for grabs. And that's why any idea of a permanent majority is foolish. One of my books, which is over there right now, not behind me, but I should put it up is the car bill book, and I look at it all the time of 40 more years after 2008. And it should really be enshrined in the museum 'cause it was about the permanent democratic majority and how Democrats would rule the nation for the next 40 years. And literally eight years later, Donald Trump wins the presidency. And then 16 years later, he wins the national popular vote. So, one of the most debunked and discredited theories in modern politics. And I feel like a lot of the Hispanic celebration among a lot of Republicans after 2024 was the same. I will note, I literally talked about this. I said, look, one of the problems with elections is thermostatic public opinion, where people shift wildly all over the place, depending on who is in power. And so unless you actually deliver something for them, then you're really not going to have any sort of permanent, elect permanent electoral coalition. And I have what everybody keeps trying to do. - I got an even more fun one for you. In 2004, if you remember Carl Rove said there was gonna be a 50 year permanent Republican majority. 22 years later, Carl Rove himself is voting for Democrats. Carl Rove, you're so right. It's like, good boy, Carl Rove just took to the stage of the Texas Tribute Vest and he's gonna be voting Democrat for the rest of, or for the first time in his entire life. He's halfway through his permanent Republican majority and lost himself. - You know, Libs, you can have Carl Rove. I've been around. I've just, just, just old enough to remember when he was the Stephen Miller and one of the most vilified aides literally in the entire nation. And I preferred it that way, personally. - Yeah. - All right, I think we have no conisting by. Let's get to it. 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